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Re: Thoughts on California Municipal Bond Funds

Excellent information (and refresher) OGD! This post is just one of the many reasons I :sharebeer bogleheads
by danieljquirk
Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on California Municipal Bond Funds
Replies: 32
Views: 2477

Re: Thoughts on California Municipal Bond Funds

I appreciated all the posts on this thread. The OP noted that the SEC yield was 2.2%. I have found the SEC yield that is reported for many different funds to vary quite a bit and sometimes be wildly off. The calculation seems to be screwy. I'd love to hear comments on this general observation. I loo...
by danieljquirk
Fri Aug 29, 2014 7:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on California Municipal Bond Funds
Replies: 32
Views: 2477

High net worth in CA - what % of bonds in munis?

Assuming you are 100% in taxable accounts and are in the highest tax bracket in CA (meaning total federal and state tax rate is about 50%), what % one's fixed income should be in:

-CA munis,
-national munis,
-taxable bonds
by danieljquirk
Fri Aug 29, 2014 11:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High net worth in CA - what % of bonds in munis?
Replies: 21
Views: 1463

Re: Do the mega wealthy need life insurance?

BlueMarlin, Hope you feel better! Why would a 70 year old want a $4 million policy? At that amount, as I understand it, there is no estate tax benefit given that the estate tax exemption is $5million for singles ($10 million for couples). For mega wealthy, it could make theoretical sense given that ...
by danieljquirk
Thu Aug 21, 2014 12:15 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do the mega wealthy need life insurance?
Replies: 32
Views: 2547

Re: Do the mega wealthy need life insurance?

Yes! Insurance companies aren't stupid. And if the purpose of the individual is to collect on the life insurance , the insurance will be priced accordingly. I am interested in hearing or validating some real world numbers. Is $5M per year in premiums realistic for $100M payout on a 70 year old? (i.e...
by danieljquirk
Wed Aug 20, 2014 10:58 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do the mega wealthy need life insurance?
Replies: 32
Views: 2547

Re: Do the mega wealthy need life insurance?

Thanks. So if you are 70 years old and worth $200M, what does a $100M life insurance policy look like to a 70 year old? Is it the same (on a mortality and % basis) as a $1 million policy for a 70 year old. i.e. the like expectancy of a 70 year old is about 17 years. So is the annual premium going to...
by danieljquirk
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do the mega wealthy need life insurance?
Replies: 32
Views: 2547

Do the mega wealthy need life insurance?

I know this is a question of pressing relevance to most bogleheads... but if you are worth, let's say $100 million, should you get life insurance? Obviously, the need to provide for your family is not a reason. Maybe, if your assets aren't liquid (i.e. it is mostly land)? But lets assume most of you...
by danieljquirk
Tue Aug 19, 2014 10:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do the mega wealthy need life insurance?
Replies: 32
Views: 2547

Do preferred stock dividends get favorable tax treatment?

Generally, do they qualify for the same low rates as common stock dividends?

I'm looking at it from the perspective of an individual in a high tax bracket.

It doesn't seem to be very clear in the land of the internet.

Thanks!

Dan
by danieljquirk
Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do preferred stock dividends get favorable tax treatment?
Replies: 3
Views: 712

Re: Let's say we live for 150 years...

Interesting post, Rick. Is the conclusion to increase the strategic allocation of equity portfolios? i.e. if you were to look at a bunch of target date funds (i.e. Vanguard, Fidelity Freedom, T.Rowe, JPM SmartLiving...), do you think they are all a bit too conservative? (I believe the average target...
by danieljquirk
Fri Apr 18, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let's say we live for 150 years...
Replies: 20
Views: 3789

Re: What do you think about "Reverse Mortgages"

I found this post because I have been researching reverse mortgages. If anyone has information on good low-cost reverse mortgage lenders, please let me know. I'd also love to know how things worked out for you, unmtgtdcrst. If you are still on the boards, please drop a line and let us know, if you d...
by danieljquirk
Thu Apr 17, 2014 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do you think about "Reverse Mortgages"
Replies: 56
Views: 6416

Low cost reverse mortgage lenders?

Anyone have a recommendation on a good reverse mortgage lender with low fees and low rates? Thanks.
by danieljquirk
Sun Apr 13, 2014 8:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Low cost reverse mortgage lenders?
Replies: 1
Views: 245

Re: TIAA Real Estate Account, bond-like or Madoff-like?

This isn't a Ponzi scheme. TIAA-CREF is very legitimate. There are a couple of interesting things about this fund. 1-It's not readily apparent, but it holds 20-25% of its assets in cash. This is a reason why it was less volatile in 2008. It is also the reason why long term performance lags the publi...
by danieljquirk
Mon Sep 16, 2013 9:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Real Estate Account, bond-like or Madoff-like?
Replies: 79
Views: 7411

Re: The Case for Index Fund Portfolios

Great article Rick! With the data that you have, can you estimate the impact of federal and state taxes consequences? (For state taxes, I might run three scenarios and assume 0%, 5% and 9% as the plugs). I know Rob Arnott wrote a piece in 1999 analyzing the impact of taxes on actively managed fund v...
by danieljquirk
Thu Jun 27, 2013 2:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case for Index Fund Portfolios
Replies: 35
Views: 4634

Re: Reconciling history of nominal GDP vs. S&P 500 return

Thanks for the thoughtful replies. It seems like the dividend payout (1-3% over time) along with stock buybacks (1-2%) could be the explanation. I'll have to think about that some more.... So, if one is trying to estimate the future returns from equities it should be real global GDP + inflation + di...
by danieljquirk
Thu May 30, 2013 12:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reconciling history of nominal GDP vs. S&P 500 return
Replies: 10
Views: 911

Reconciling history of nominal GDP vs. S&P 500 return

Many smart investors/economists/pundits equate long-term nominal GDP growth with earnings growth for stocks. It seems logical to assume that the S&P 500 in aggregate cannot grow faster than the overall economy over the long run. Yet, since 1928, the S&P 500 has returned about 9.3% per year h...
by danieljquirk
Wed May 29, 2013 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reconciling history of nominal GDP vs. S&P 500 return
Replies: 10
Views: 911

Re: P/B valuations for small and large back to 1926

Bottomfisher, Thanks for the added color on P/E valuations. The six portfolios are based on the classic fama-French research. The chart indicates no valuation differences between large and small stocks on a P/B basis. I wanted to use the ken French P/B data because it goes back to 1928. I will try t...
by danieljquirk
Tue May 28, 2013 12:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/B valuations for small and large back to 1926
Replies: 4
Views: 647

Re: Proportion of 403(b) Account to Annuitize

Interesting thread. Good comments. Given the fact that it seems like she will continue to pay rent or a mortgage in retirement, figuring out monthly income is a big deal. Big difference between being able to spend $4,000 before rent and $2-3000 after rent. What is her rent? It seems that even if she...
by danieljquirk
Tue May 28, 2013 12:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Proportion of 403(b) Account to Annuitize
Replies: 29
Views: 1628

P/B valuations for small and large back to 1926

This will probably bore a lot of people or rehash old debates, but I was fairly certain that small cap valuations had expanded substantially relative to large caps. (My concern is that unsustainable valuation expansion has provided a lot of the favorable return over the last 13 years.) I actually we...
by danieljquirk
Mon May 27, 2013 1:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/B valuations for small and large back to 1926
Replies: 4
Views: 647

Re: DFA Growth funds?

I apologize if I missed it, but can anyone point to the actual study that shows the data? Or if there is a link to an understandable interpretation of the data, that would be even better. My gut instinct is to be skeptical of this fund and the behavioral story, but I'd like to look at the data for m...
by danieljquirk
Sun Feb 10, 2013 3:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Growth funds?
Replies: 47
Views: 4899

Re: Finally arrived: The Vanguard Total International Bond F

In theory, I think it's fine to add this to a portfolio. I believe the biggest risk one is mitigating against is US government default. However, given how integrated world economies are, I am doubtful that the rest of the world's bonds (particularly the largest weights of Japan, France, Germany, and...
by danieljquirk
Sun Feb 10, 2013 12:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally arrived: The Vanguard Total International Bond Fund
Replies: 187
Views: 22306

Re: MVO for Excel

Thank you all for your thoughtful replies. This is why Bogleheads rock!

I realize the output of MVO is very much GIGO. This is more of a mathematical, puzzle-type of exercise for me.

Grayfox, I may ping you privately for some help with my spreadsheet.
by danieljquirk
Wed Jan 16, 2013 5:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MVO for Excel
Replies: 14
Views: 1397

Re: MVO for Excel

Another issue came up with some colleagues, regarding standard deviation input assumptions for some of the asset classes. Specifically, there was debate over whether straight-up annual volatility should be used or if monthly annualized volatility should be used. The straight-up annual standard devia...
by danieljquirk
Wed Jan 16, 2013 2:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MVO for Excel
Replies: 14
Views: 1397

Re: MVO for Excel

MVO is mean variance optimization. It is a mathematical technique (I'm trying to build it in Excel) to arrive at an efficient portfolio, which is one that maximizes expected return for a given amount of standard deviation, or given a standard deviation, maximizes the expected return. Bogleheads intu...
by danieljquirk
Fri Jan 11, 2013 12:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MVO for Excel
Replies: 14
Views: 1397

MVO for Excel

I'm working on a bit of an academic project and am interested if there is a good Excel-based MVO spreadsheet out there that I can copy and paste. I've already created tables of roughly 15 different asset classes (I know--far too many, but I'm trying to indulge some other colleagues) with expected re...
by danieljquirk
Fri Jan 11, 2013 9:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MVO for Excel
Replies: 14
Views: 1397

Innovation that drives growth

I noticed that a thread on 3-d printing was locked. I wanted to open up the discussion to the larger idea of innovation, productivity gains, growth in GDP, improvement in living standards, and of course, the stock market. Below is a list of some of the innovations that I think might truly transform ...
by danieljquirk
Sat Jan 05, 2013 7:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Innovation that drives growth
Replies: 8
Views: 594

Re: Distribution yield vs. 30 day SEC yield

I find many of the reporting services (i.e. Yahoo Finance) often interchange the two yields. Distribution yield is not very useful. Are there ever discrepancies in a 30-day SEC-yield when a fund is making distributions monthly vs. quarterly? Or put another way, will the 30-day SEC yield sometimes be...
by danieljquirk
Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distribution yield vs. 30 day SEC yield
Replies: 15
Views: 1141

Re: Home Equity Line to Pay for Grad School

Getting an MBA while you're working and having the company pay for part of it is smart. Just pay as and when you need, using the taxable trust account as well as money saved from your job over the next couple of years. Don't bother with the home equity loan. Keep your life simple. Continue to save a...
by danieljquirk
Tue Dec 04, 2012 8:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home Equity Line to Pay for Grad School
Replies: 7
Views: 547

Re: My Asset Class Selection Process

2) The valuations are quite high. Taken on a pre-tax cash earnings basis, REIT P/E ratios are approximately twice that of the S&P 500. P/E is completely irrelevant in the REIT world. REITs use FFO - Funds From Operations. I would recommend the excellent book "Investing in REITs" by Ra...
by danieljquirk
Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Asset Class Selection Process
Replies: 50
Views: 2353

Re: My Asset Class Selection Process

I am going to chime in and agree with call_me_OP. I've written before several times about my skepticism of REITs: 1) The more recent correlation with stocks is quite high, near 1.0. 2) The valuations are quite high. Taken on a pre-tax cash earnings basis, REIT P/E ratios are approximately twice that...
by danieljquirk
Tue Dec 04, 2012 12:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Asset Class Selection Process
Replies: 50
Views: 2353

Re: Marine Officer looking to transition into Finance

Love the Marines! A couple of thoughts: 1) Going to work for the large wire house is definitely a deal with the devil. You'll get good experience, but the products and strategy aren't the best for clients. 2) Is it possible to start you're training/planning while you are still a Marine and getting p...
by danieljquirk
Tue Dec 04, 2012 12:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Marine Officer looking to transition into Finance
Replies: 16
Views: 1596

Re: PIMCO Small Cap Stocks Plus Fund

It seems like a good strategy. The "plus" strategy is a common one at Pimco--taking collateral from investing in derivatives/futures and investing in some sort of low risk bonds. (I'm pretty sure this fund does not collect the dividends, however.) Or how about this twist on the Pimco fund?...
by danieljquirk
Fri Nov 23, 2012 10:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PIMCO Small Cap Stocks Plus Fund
Replies: 4
Views: 617

Re: The Flight Path Approach to Age-Based Asset Allocation

I like the approach Rick! I think another effective approach can be education before the fact . I think it is fine for young investors to be in mostly equities, as long as they are fully informed about the risks of something like a 50% drop (i.e. 2001 and 2008). But the key is to get them excited ab...
by danieljquirk
Sat Nov 03, 2012 10:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Flight Path Approach to Age-Based Asset Allocation
Replies: 74
Views: 6632

Re: Live CCF return data

Thanks Larry, I care about returns going forward, not backwards. Here are my concerns: 1) As more investor money has moved into the commodities futures space, the supply/demand balance has shifted against futures relative to spot players. i.e. There are a lot more "insurance sellers" today...
by danieljquirk
Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Live CCF return data
Replies: 35
Views: 1791

Re: Fund Recommendations for 401K Plan

Great work lawman! With 401Ks (and most investing) complexity is the enemy. You should avoid going to 30 funds and try to keep it as few as possible. I think the federal government's TSP is the ideal model: 5 funds + target date funds consisting of the 5 funds. For instance, instead of offering &quo...
by danieljquirk
Thu Oct 11, 2012 2:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fund Recommendations for 401K Plan
Replies: 4
Views: 350

Re: Technical Ken French data questions

Thanks for the replies. I don't understand why anyone really looks at "High minus Low" or "Small minus Big". This isn't how most people practically invest. Is there a good reason to look at the factors this way? In my mind, it's more intuitive and practical to think of, for examp...
by danieljquirk
Wed Oct 10, 2012 10:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Technical Ken French data questions
Replies: 16
Views: 1171

Technical Ken French data questions

Technical Fama-French data questions for some fellow posters: Below are numbers I downloaded from the Ken French Library on the 6 portfolios formed on size and book to market. (I apologize for messy display--does bogleheads website allow for importing formatted excel tables?) This is the link that I...
by danieljquirk
Wed Oct 10, 2012 8:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Technical Ken French data questions
Replies: 16
Views: 1171

Re: Commodities

PCRIX may have done better since late 2008 than some stock indices, but I don't think that means very much--4 years is not a long time, especially when measuring from the very hectic time of late 2008. Logic would seem to dictate that spot commodities prices provide an at-best zero real return over ...
by danieljquirk
Fri Oct 05, 2012 2:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Commodities
Replies: 24
Views: 1750

Re: Commodities

+1, great post Vanguard put out a great paper in 2008, with a couple of great graphs showing the historic trends on the three sources of returns for commodities futures. I think it's pretty clear that they mathematically won't return anything close to what they did in the past. https://institutional...
by danieljquirk
Wed Oct 03, 2012 4:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Commodities
Replies: 24
Views: 1750

Re: pension advice- should my mom do lump sum or monthly pay

I'm pretty sure this is a no-brainer. I checked an immediate annuity website: http://www.immediateannuities.com/information/rates.html?rates=49868b6f773c9f807b650cbf7ec9a726 and punched in $106,000 for a 66 year old (assume the $101,00 grows to $106,000 over the next three years) and the comparable ...
by danieljquirk
Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: pension advice- should my mom do lump sum or monthly payment
Replies: 9
Views: 1481

Re: This is large growth?

Thanks for the replies Jerry. Regarding the tax advantage, the other tax advantage of TSM+TBM is that there is less rebalancing, and therefore fewer realization of taxable gains. I don't think the "average guy" on the street would be more concerned about not keeping up with small and value...
by danieljquirk
Thu Jul 19, 2012 2:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This is large growth?
Replies: 17
Views: 1544

Re: This is large growth?

Thanks Jerry, I don't think I was being particularly emotional in my observation--I was generally relying on stable P/E ratios. I agree that the large names might not be particularly representative of the overall style indices. I did not dig very deep. I also agree that the historical data on small ...
by danieljquirk
Wed Jul 18, 2012 3:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This is large growth?
Replies: 17
Views: 1544

Re: This is large growth?

1) What is more of a "value" company: MSFT trading at 11 times earnings with an additional $50 billion in net cash; or XOM trading at 11 times earnings and $4 billion in net cash? XOM is #1 in the Vanguard Value Index fund while MSFT is #5 in the Growth Index fund. Would depend on which o...
by danieljquirk
Wed Jul 18, 2012 1:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This is large growth?
Replies: 17
Views: 1544

Re: David Swensen - Pioneering Portfolio Management Book

If you hold a good slug of Vanguard or S&P Small Value, you hold them anyway and I wouldn't worry about it. If you are a TSMer and just can't bring yourself to tilt, then adding them is OK. But for well designed 3F portfolios, REITs aren't necessary. Thanks Jerry. I am skeptical of REITs, prima...
by danieljquirk
Wed Jul 18, 2012 12:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen - Pioneering Portfolio Management Book
Replies: 33
Views: 4646

This is large growth?

I'm going to preface this by saying that this is very unscientific--just an observation and trying to understand the idea that TSM is dominated by large-cap growth companies. See the top 10 weightings of TSM below. I understand that growth vs. value is a relative concept, but from a non-relative, sh...
by danieljquirk
Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This is large growth?
Replies: 17
Views: 1544

Re: David Swensen - Pioneering Portfolio Management Book

Jerry_lee, I respect your thinking and logic, especially on suits. I'd be interested in your general thoughts on REITs. They don't really seem to fit into the Fama-French model. The valuations are a bit screwy--i.e. Simon Property (which makes up 10%+ of Vanguard's REIT fund--ticker VNQ) trades at n...
by danieljquirk
Tue Jul 17, 2012 5:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen - Pioneering Portfolio Management Book
Replies: 33
Views: 4646

Re: Help understanding Total Economic Portfolio

The market prices assets based on their stand alone risks, not so much on how they contribute to a diversified portfolio which would be different for everyone. Jerry, Is this in fact true? My thinking is that as a fund guy, I am purchasing shares of Apple. I would normally not purchase Apple as a s...
by danieljquirk
Thu Jul 12, 2012 7:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help understanding Total Economic Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 941

Re: M.I.T.'s Andrew Lo says Buy and Hold dosen't work

I came across Andrew Lo as I was trying to do some research on hard core academics who might actually disagree with the efficient markets hypothesis. (Will it always be a hypothesis, or might it one day become a tautology?!) Andrew Lo of MIT comes up as one of the more prominent spokesmen. Does he p...
by danieljquirk
Tue Jul 10, 2012 12:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M.I.T.'s Andrew Lo says Buy and Hold dosen't work
Replies: 85
Views: 10887

Re: The Smartest Things Ever Said About Market Timing

"I can't recall ever once having seen the name of a market timer on Forbes' annual list of the richest people in the world. If it were truly possible to predict corrections, you'd think somebody would have made billions by doing it." I agree that market timing is foolish, but there have be...
by danieljquirk
Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Smartest Things Ever Said About Market Timing
Replies: 16
Views: 2499

Re: Inheriting a small amount - what to do?

Sorry to hear about your loss. I'd pay off all your non-mortgage debts (to simplify your life) and as much of the mortgage as possible, and then devote the next year or two to banging away the remainder of the mortgage. Don't even bother with the hassle and expense of refinancing--just pay it off qu...
by danieljquirk
Tue Jul 03, 2012 6:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inheriting a small amount - what to do?
Replies: 13
Views: 1418

Re: Young family portfolio help

Incidentally, to find the answer to my quiz question (or really any question), go to the bogleheads homepage, type in "asset location" (or whatever you are interested in learning about) in the search box on the upper left, and then click on some of the links and start reading. Take some no...
by danieljquirk
Tue Jul 03, 2012 1:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young family portfolio help
Replies: 11
Views: 1133
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