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by crake
Fri Apr 24, 2015 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock Poll: Emerging vs Developed Ratio
Replies: 55
Views: 2803

Re: International Stock Poll: Emerging vs Developed Ratio

I hold in proportion to their market cap weight which I believe is 80/20 DM/EM. I would just hold entirely Vanguard total international but my 401k only offers the Spartan Total International which does not include EM. I added an EM fund to my IRA to compensate.
by crake
Tue Apr 21, 2015 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Broken Oxygen Sensor on Car
Replies: 43
Views: 2915

Re: Broken Oxygen Sensor on Car

If the car is still under warranty this should be covered. I would fight it. If you don't want to do that an independent mechanic should be able to fix it for under 200 dollars. The dealership is screwing you on the warranty and then screwing you even more on the repair bill. Unless you purposefully...
by crake
Fri Mar 27, 2015 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CRR Boston College: "Why I Dropped My Financial Adviser"
Replies: 21
Views: 2646

Re: CRR Boston College: "Why I Dropped My Financial Adviser

I think there is a desperate need for financial planners for the mass affluent (with <1M AUM in assets) market. However, I cannot think of a business model that can provide affordable and reasonably priced service in this market segment, and yet allow financial planners to make a decent living. So ...
by crake
Tue Mar 10, 2015 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing into a black hole
Replies: 12
Views: 1369

Rebalancing into a black hole

I have been considering a particular risk to the strategy of setting an AA and periodically re balancing. I'll use the three fund portfolio to demonstrate this particular risk. There are many methodologies which can be utilized to choose an Asset Allocation but I would argue they are all basically a...
by crake
Tue Mar 10, 2015 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fun Fund?
Replies: 27
Views: 1966

Re: Fun Fund?

It seems like the best way to accomplish what you want (greater return than savings count, no stocks, undefined investing term) would be a municipal bond fund or i-bonds. Regular bond funds lacks tax efficiency which is why you wouldn't want to hold it in a taxable account. If I were you I would als...
by crake
Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Confused about whether to utilize Employer Roth Plan or IRA
Replies: 12
Views: 417

Re: Confused about whether to utilize Employer Roth Plan or

(1) Should I even be continuing to fund Roth accounts? I believe, based upon the Bogleheads wiki, that Roth contributions are still advantageous for us. We expect to remain in high tax brackets for the remainder of our careers and I assume that our taxable income would fall in retirement (I am alwa...
by crake
Fri Feb 06, 2015 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do with extra space in 15% bracket
Replies: 7
Views: 951

Re: What to do with extra space in 15% bracket

3) In my taxable account I have about 50/50 Vanguard total market and Vanguard total int. The boglehead wiki says that it is better to hold international funds in your taxable account because of the foreign tax credit;however in the 15% bracket this doesn't seem to be the case since I am paying 0 t...
by crake
Thu Feb 05, 2015 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do with extra space in 15% bracket
Replies: 7
Views: 951

What to do with extra space in 15% bracket

So for the first time I actually paid attention to the inputs and outputs of my Tax software to see how the numbers were calculated. I always thought I was in the 25% bracket but I discovered that after all of my retirement contributions, deductions, and exemptions I actually have about 10k worth of...
by crake
Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ketogenic Diet anyone?
Replies: 22
Views: 1288

Re: Ketogenic Diet anyone?

I believe the ketogenic diet embodies the boglehead way of thinking within the nutrition realm. This method of eating spans millions of years. Yet it blatantly goes against the common recommendations put out of national organizations. I truly believe that in a few years this diet will become more a...
by crake
Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 296
Views: 17771

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

I'm shocked that a handful of 4-toss trials don't precisely fit the theoretically modeled expected values. Are you suggesting that we should just toss out the theoretically modeled values, then? The conclusions drawn from Shannon's "thought experiment" are the important takeaway here. I w...
by crake
Wed Dec 10, 2014 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your opinion about "tilting?"
Replies: 116
Views: 9812

Re: What is your opinion about "tilting?"

I answered "I don't tilt. I think tilting is actually harmful--is actually inferior to holding the total market." In a friction-less vacuum I think tilting is probably harmless but since it costs more I would say it is probably likely to perform worse on a risk adjusted basis to the total ...
by crake
Thu Dec 04, 2014 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pensions Provide Benefits at Half the Cost of 401Ks
Replies: 16
Views: 1631

Re: Pensions Provide Benefits at Half the Cost of 401Ks

The notion that you have to save/contribute more money in a DC plan than a DB plan for the same benefits is disingenuous. The only way this could be true is if DB plans had lower costs and/or greater returns. The money needs to come from somewhere. The reason why it seems like you need to save/cont...
by crake
Thu Dec 04, 2014 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pensions Provide Benefits at Half the Cost of 401Ks
Replies: 16
Views: 1631

Re: Pensions Provide Benefits at Half the Cost of 401Ks

1) The savings rate for the DC plan needs to be in the range of 31% of annual salary. This means that most contributors probably vastly under-save. With company matches often no more than 4-6%, it is hard to imagine that annual savings rate of the average person is more than 10%, probably often muc...
by crake
Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pensions Provide Benefits at Half the Cost of 401Ks
Replies: 16
Views: 1631

Re: Pensions Provide Benefits at Half the Cost of 401Ks

One of the premises in the paper I can agree to is that the vast majority of investors are incapable of managing their own retirement. I used to work at a company that didn't have internet access. In 2011 a co-worker of mine expressed that this put us at a huge investing disadvantage because we coul...
by crake
Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pensions Provide Benefits at Half the Cost of 401Ks
Replies: 16
Views: 1631

Re: Pensions Provide Benefits at Half the Cost of 401Ks

I haven't read the whole paper, just the executive summary but it seems to have a significant amount of bias. The author, "William B. (Flick) Fornia is President of Pension Trustee Advisors, Inc., specializing in public sector retirement plans. " 1. A typical DB plan provides equivalent re...
by crake
Wed Nov 19, 2014 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 28034

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Richard Now let's assume the data is found with a tstat of 2 for US stocks. Then you do the data for emerging market stocks and find the same thing. And then for developed markets and then for currencies and then for interest rates/bonds and then for commodities and all the data shows statistical s...
by crake
Fri Nov 07, 2014 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: War on Debt
Replies: 247
Views: 33387

Re: War on Debt

Technofox, one of the biggest issues with your budget is it does not account for unexpected expenses. Contrary to what it sounds like, unexpected expenses should be expected. You own a house. You should budget at least 2% of the value of the house for maintenance and repairs. If you don't account fo...
by crake
Thu Nov 06, 2014 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oil change costs--dealer vs other
Replies: 35
Views: 3066

Re: Oil change costs--dealer vs other

I'm not sure the exact model of your accord but it probably takes about 4 quarts of oil. Decent oil will cost about 5 dollars a quart and a filter is about 10 dollars so to diy would cost about 30 dollars. You also will need an oil filter wrench(10 dollars), and an oil pan (5 dollars). I'm assuming ...
by crake
Wed Nov 05, 2014 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone using Page Plus Cellular
Replies: 17
Views: 1310

Re: Anyone using Page Plus Cellular

I have no experience with Verizon directly but have been with Page Plus for 3 yrs. I've been very happy with their service. They recently started offering 4G service if that matters. Kitty Wireless (a PP reseller) will be rolling out some new plans in the near future that differ from the basic Page...
by crake
Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilted to SV by mistake, should I TLH out of it?
Replies: 37
Views: 1938

Re: Tilted to SV by mistake, should I TLH out of it?

My recommendation would be to sell the REITS and the SV. You don't seem to be a good candidate for tilting as 6-10% performance lags should be expected somewhat regularly. Put all your US equities in Vanguard Total Stock Market and stop thinking about.
by crake
Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ham and Egger's Theory? [Buy Whatever Cap Size is lagging) ]
Replies: 38
Views: 4274

Re: Ham and Egger's Theory? [Buy Whatever Cap Size is laggin

I will second the other posters recommending you pick an AA and re-balance periodically. If you want to be 100% equities just buy Vanguard Total Stock Market and be done with it. It doesn't make interesting water cooler talk but you are guaranteed market returns for minimal cost. It is also the most...
by crake
Sun Oct 26, 2014 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Pool...equipment advice
Replies: 9
Views: 946

Re: New Pool...equipment advice

Just bought a house with a pool. This was my first summer with it. While I am not familiar with the term "spool" I can point you towards some people who probably are. http://www.troublefreepool.com/content/169-TFP-Home-Page That website is the bogleheads of pool ownership. The focus is on ...
by crake
Fri Oct 24, 2014 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feeling rich to feeling poor overnight
Replies: 85
Views: 11763

Re: Feeling rich to feeling poor overnight

I think one option you missed is to find the 800 to 1100 dollars per month you need for additional rent through cutting other expenses. Do you have an expensive car you can downgrade or go without? ~300-600 per month Can you increase deductibles on any insurance you have? ~100 per month Go from expe...
by crake
Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR function and private equity investments
Replies: 14
Views: 996

Re: XIRR function and private equity investments

I follow this argument, but what if I get the $80 check. Deposit it into my bank account, wait a few weeks and then reinvest into something else? This will be determined by whether or not you are trying to track the IRR of each individual investment or of your portfolio as a whole. I personally jus...
by crake
Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR function and private equity investments
Replies: 14
Views: 996

Re: XIRR function and private equity invtments

... comes in the mail as a dividend check. How do I count for this in XIRR?? If I count it as a withdrawal it would not take into account the 8% return on the initial amount I put into the private equity deal. I don't see the problem. Treating the dividend as a withdrawal leads XIRR to compute the ...
by crake
Wed Oct 22, 2014 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR function and private equity investments
Replies: 14
Views: 996

Re: XIRR function and private equity invtments

When dividends are reinvested they are neither a withdrawal or a deposit. Your account balance just increases. If you are trying to calculate rates of return for your different assets and you reinvest the dividend from one asset into another I think the way to do that would be as a withdrawal from o...
by crake
Wed Oct 22, 2014 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 135
Views: 11535

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

I'm an engineer. ... The biggest thing I have learned which is in 100% contrast to boglehead philosophy and what most economists say is that markets are efficient on the macro level and more often than not inefficient on the micro level. There are tons and tons of mispriced individual stocks in my ...
by crake
Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 135
Views: 11535

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

I agree that both Young and I provide anecdotal evidence. Whether anecdotal evidence is useful is up to the readers. Victoria As an engineer and a boglehead investor i will refute the idea that anecdotal evidence is useful. In my opinion being able to ignore anecdotal evidence is a large advantage ...
by crake
Tue Oct 21, 2014 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 135
Views: 11535

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

I will also have to disagree with the premise of the article. I am an engineer and I have not met many people in my field similar to the ones the author is describing. In find engineers tend to be data driven, logical, and do not let emotions influence decision making. Those seem like excellent attr...
by crake
Mon Oct 13, 2014 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer codes availability at indep. repair garages?
Replies: 42
Views: 2035

Re: Computer codes availability at indep. repair garages?

I would consider 90 dollars for an oil change on a Honda to be exorbitant. I just checked my Honda Dealers website and they charge 35 dollars and provide a free car wash/vacuum.

An independent shop should be under 30 dollars and closer to 20 for a non-synthetic oil change.
by crake
Mon Oct 13, 2014 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer codes availability at indep. repair garages?
Replies: 42
Views: 2035

Re: Computer codes availability at indep. repair garages?

crake, it is raining right now so I can't go out and test out your instructions. But it is beginning to sound that I got ripped off. Your cars manual will also have my instructions in it if you want to verify. Honda publishes manuals online http://owners.honda.com/vehicles/warranty . The propriety ...
by crake
Mon Oct 13, 2014 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer codes availability at indep. repair garages?
Replies: 42
Views: 2035

Re: Computer codes availability at indep. repair garages?

This is reset in seconds using their scan tool which anyone can buy. The current state of the art OEM Honda scan tool costs around $2000 (and you need a laptop) - http://honda.snapon.com/HondaAcura/ItemDetail.aspx?ItemId=53561297 . Aftermarket and clone tools capable of resetting this light are und...
by crake
Mon Oct 13, 2014 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer codes availability at indep. repair garages?
Replies: 42
Views: 2035

Re: Computer codes availability at indep. repair garages?

This is how to reset the light on a Honda: 1. Press the button on the instrument panel until oil life is displayed. 2. Hold down the button until the oil life starts to flash 3. Release button. 4. Hold button down again until oil life reverts back to 100% I would be very angry being charged 18 dolla...
by crake
Sun Oct 12, 2014 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on getting out [of job]
Replies: 37
Views: 5422

Re: Thoughts on getting out

Hard to answer without more details. The part that worries me is: I plan to take all of the equity out of the house in the form of a heloc. This gives me the cushion I need to help cover tuition, emergencies, living expenses and so on. We plan on selling the house in a few years anyway. If you're re...
by crake
Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New 2% cash back Mastercard from Citi
Replies: 240
Views: 179576

Re: New 2% cash back Mastercard from Citi

Request for an opinion from board members: should I convert my Citi Forward card to Double Cash? Currently, my card seems to be grandfathered to earn 5 points for restaurants and Amazon (places of relevance). I'm also among the lucky people who still have a forward card with the 5 points bonus. I w...
by crake
Wed Oct 08, 2014 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 52
Views: 3492

Re: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?

1) Lower costs to not tilt 2) It's possible for SV to underperform in the long run. The difference between Vanguard's VTI (total stock) and VBR (small value) is a whopping 4 basis points. The latest I've been hearing from tilting advocates has been that VBR and other funds that fit into M*'s small ...
by crake
Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 52
Views: 3492

Re: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?

Something like a Larry Portfolio that is mostly small value with a higher bond allocation performs similarly to a three fund portfolio with less volatility. Let me fix that for you. Something like a Larry Portfolio that is mostly small value with a higher bond allocation performed similarly to a th...
by crake
Tue Oct 07, 2014 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Private Student Loan attacks after 7 years
Replies: 34
Views: 2677

Re: Private Student Loan attacks after 7 years

Morally you are obliged to repay, but since you attempted to repay I do not see why anyone is entitled to interest. Perhaps you could explain why you believe the OP has a moral imperative to pay. The OP has followed his end of the contract. He attempted to make payments when the loan was due but th...
by crake
Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Private Student Loan attacks after 7 years
Replies: 34
Views: 2677

Re: Private Student Loan attacks after 7 years

Below is an interesting story on the debt after market.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014 ... .html?_r=0
by crake
Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Private Student Loan attacks after 7 years
Replies: 34
Views: 2677

Re: Private Student Loan attacks after 7 years

Neither of these companies notified me that the loan was sold to a different creditor. So the time comes 6 months after I graduate to start paying up so I go to pay and realize there's no one to pay because the company doesn't exist anymore! But at that point there is an open account on my credit r...
by crake
Thu Oct 02, 2014 9:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is my husband a spendthrift? Or I a tightwad?
Replies: 198
Views: 18854

Re: Is my husband a spendthrift? Or I a tightwad?

Enough advice has been given so I just thought I'd explain my own situation to provide some perspective. My wife and I make less than half of what you and your husband make. We also do not receive any monetary support from our family. We max out both our 401k's and IRA's. Despite these facts we are ...
by crake
Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LED Flashlights
Replies: 51
Views: 4208

Re: LED Flashlights

I've got one of these http://www.dx.com/p/ultrafire-wf-501b-xm-lt6-5-mode-510-lumen-memory-white-led-flashlight-with-strap-1-18650-55241#.VCxqRfldVfc For under 10 bucks shipped I don't think it can be beat. I use it on bike and so far it has survived almost 2 years of riding 4 days a week through ra...
by crake
Tue Sep 30, 2014 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When should someone "not stay the course"?
Replies: 43
Views: 2800

Re: When should someone "not stay the course"?

I would say the time "not stay the course" would be when the inputs which went into creating your initial IPS have changed or when you acquire some new knowledge which you didn't have at the time you created your IPS. VGTSX being stagnant for 8 years does not meet those criteria. Inputs wh...
by crake
Thu Sep 25, 2014 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buy today or stick to plan?
Replies: 29
Views: 3202

Re: Buy today or stick to plan?

Short answer is it doesn't matter so just stick with your plan. 750 dollars will most likely have no noticeable effect on your savings. Longer answer is your better off contributing today but not for the reason you're thinking. Time in the market, not timing the market. The sooner you reinvest divid...
by crake
Fri Sep 19, 2014 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: We have a grocery problem... [Household budget]
Replies: 158
Views: 12021

Re: We have a grocery problem...

It sounds like you've got a good handle on what the problem is. You just need the motivation to be able to fix it. I am also in a family of two and our grocery bill probably hovers around 100 dollars a month and we rarely eat out. This is less than half of yours but I still consider it somewhat high...
by crake
Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The boglehead way to buy furniture
Replies: 56
Views: 5683

Re: The boglehead way to buy furniture

I don't think you need to spend a fortune to have a decent looking living room. Our couches came from a close out store and were only about $700 for a sofa and love seat. So far they have held up very well and are showing no signs of wear after four years and two moves. The area rug cost about $300 ...
by crake
Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Small and Value Tilting
Replies: 72
Views: 5225

Re: 100% Small and Value Tilting

JohnnyFive wrote:I'm fully aware of the risks involved but have never seen such a thing advocated on here for long investment horizons (40+ years)?


The risks involved are that your investments become worthless. This is much less likely to occur with a diversified portfolio of all stocks and bonds.
by crake
Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a home with aluminum wiring?
Replies: 73
Views: 5927

Re: Buying a home with aluminum wiring?

The aluminum wiring itself is not the problem. It is the terminal connection of the wire to the outlet that is the problem. The wire itself it capable of carrying the full current capacity of the circuit, heater or no heater. You may not realize it but the service drop cable into your home is made ...
by crake
Wed Aug 20, 2014 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a home with aluminum wiring?
Replies: 73
Views: 5927

Re: Buying a home with aluminum wiring?

I recently purchased a house with AL wiring and had it completely replaced. My original plan was to simply pigtail but I quickly realized this was not a viable option. One of the issues with pigtailing is the need to find every single electrical junction box. Yes, in a perfect world they should all ...
by crake
Tue Aug 19, 2014 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [live off dividends?] How the rich stay/get richer??
Replies: 62
Views: 5619

Re: How the rich stay/get richer??

Your example is true. If your portfolio earns 8% a year and you only withdraw 2% a year it will increase over time. Where you seem to be a bit confused is focusing on dividends. It does not matter if the 2% spent is dividends or capital growth. The hypothetical investor will have the same amount of ...

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