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Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Richard Now let's assume the data is found with a tstat of 2 for US stocks. Then you do the data for emerging market stocks and find the same thing. And then for developed markets and then for currencies and then for interest rates/bonds and then for commodities and all the data shows statistical s...
by crake
Wed Nov 19, 2014 4:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 80
Views: 6257

Re: War on Debt

Technofox, one of the biggest issues with your budget is it does not account for unexpected expenses. Contrary to what it sounds like, unexpected expenses should be expected. You own a house. You should budget at least 2% of the value of the house for maintenance and repairs. If you don't account fo...
by crake
Fri Nov 07, 2014 9:32 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: War on Debt
Replies: 247
Views: 26719

Re: Oil change costs--dealer vs other

I'm not sure the exact model of your accord but it probably takes about 4 quarts of oil. Decent oil will cost about 5 dollars a quart and a filter is about 10 dollars so to diy would cost about 30 dollars. You also will need an oil filter wrench(10 dollars), and an oil pan (5 dollars). I'm assuming ...
by crake
Thu Nov 06, 2014 9:16 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oil change costs--dealer vs other
Replies: 35
Views: 2256

Re: Anyone using Page Plus Cellular

I have no experience with Verizon directly but have been with Page Plus for 3 yrs. I've been very happy with their service. They recently started offering 4G service if that matters. Kitty Wireless (a PP reseller) will be rolling out some new plans in the near future that differ from the basic Page...
by crake
Wed Nov 05, 2014 12:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone using Page Plus Cellular
Replies: 17
Views: 905

Re: Tilted to SV by mistake, should I TLH out of it?

My recommendation would be to sell the REITS and the SV. You don't seem to be a good candidate for tilting as 6-10% performance lags should be expected somewhat regularly. Put all your US equities in Vanguard Total Stock Market and stop thinking about.
by crake
Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilted to SV by mistake, should I TLH out of it?
Replies: 37
Views: 1708

Re: Ham and Egger's Theory? [Buy Whatever Cap Size is laggin

I will second the other posters recommending you pick an AA and re-balance periodically. If you want to be 100% equities just buy Vanguard Total Stock Market and be done with it. It doesn't make interesting water cooler talk but you are guaranteed market returns for minimal cost. It is also the most...
by crake
Mon Oct 27, 2014 2:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ham and Egger's Theory? [Buy Whatever Cap Size is lagging) ]
Replies: 38
Views: 3192

Re: New Pool...equipment advice

Just bought a house with a pool. This was my first summer with it. While I am not familiar with the term "spool" I can point you towards some people who probably are. http://www.troublefreepool.com/content/169-TFP-Home-Page That website is the bogleheads of pool ownership. The focus is on ...
by crake
Sun Oct 26, 2014 11:24 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Pool...equipment advice
Replies: 9
Views: 813

Re: Feeling rich to feeling poor overnight

I think one option you missed is to find the 800 to 1100 dollars per month you need for additional rent through cutting other expenses. Do you have an expensive car you can downgrade or go without? ~300-600 per month Can you increase deductibles on any insurance you have? ~100 per month Go from expe...
by crake
Fri Oct 24, 2014 12:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feeling rich to feeling poor overnight
Replies: 85
Views: 10857

Re: XIRR function and private equity investments

I follow this argument, but what if I get the $80 check. Deposit it into my bank account, wait a few weeks and then reinvest into something else? This will be determined by whether or not you are trying to track the IRR of each individual investment or of your portfolio as a whole. I personally jus...
by crake
Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR function and private equity investments
Replies: 14
Views: 814

Re: XIRR function and private equity invtments

... comes in the mail as a dividend check. How do I count for this in XIRR?? If I count it as a withdrawal it would not take into account the 8% return on the initial amount I put into the private equity deal. I don't see the problem. Treating the dividend as a withdrawal leads XIRR to compute the ...
by crake
Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR function and private equity investments
Replies: 14
Views: 814

Re: XIRR function and private equity invtments

When dividends are reinvested they are neither a withdrawal or a deposit. Your account balance just increases. If you are trying to calculate rates of return for your different assets and you reinvest the dividend from one asset into another I think the way to do that would be as a withdrawal from o...
by crake
Wed Oct 22, 2014 3:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR function and private equity investments
Replies: 14
Views: 814

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

I'm an engineer. ... The biggest thing I have learned which is in 100% contrast to boglehead philosophy and what most economists say is that markets are efficient on the macro level and more often than not inefficient on the micro level. There are tons and tons of mispriced individual stocks in my ...
by crake
Wed Oct 22, 2014 3:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 135
Views: 10643

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

I agree that both Young and I provide anecdotal evidence. Whether anecdotal evidence is useful is up to the readers. Victoria As an engineer and a boglehead investor i will refute the idea that anecdotal evidence is useful. In my opinion being able to ignore anecdotal evidence is a large advantage ...
by crake
Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 135
Views: 10643

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

I will also have to disagree with the premise of the article. I am an engineer and I have not met many people in my field similar to the ones the author is describing. In find engineers tend to be data driven, logical, and do not let emotions influence decision making. Those seem like excellent attr...
by crake
Tue Oct 21, 2014 4:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 135
Views: 10643

Re: Computer codes availability at indep. repair garages?

I would consider 90 dollars for an oil change on a Honda to be exorbitant. I just checked my Honda Dealers website and they charge 35 dollars and provide a free car wash/vacuum.

An independent shop should be under 30 dollars and closer to 20 for a non-synthetic oil change.
by crake
Mon Oct 13, 2014 2:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer codes availability at indep. repair garages?
Replies: 42
Views: 1873

Re: Computer codes availability at indep. repair garages?

crake, it is raining right now so I can't go out and test out your instructions. But it is beginning to sound that I got ripped off. Your cars manual will also have my instructions in it if you want to verify. Honda publishes manuals online http://owners.honda.com/vehicles/warranty . The propriety ...
by crake
Mon Oct 13, 2014 11:48 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer codes availability at indep. repair garages?
Replies: 42
Views: 1873

Re: Computer codes availability at indep. repair garages?

This is reset in seconds using their scan tool which anyone can buy. The current state of the art OEM Honda scan tool costs around $2000 (and you need a laptop) - http://honda.snapon.com/HondaAcura/ItemDetail.aspx?ItemId=53561297 . Aftermarket and clone tools capable of resetting this light are und...
by crake
Mon Oct 13, 2014 11:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer codes availability at indep. repair garages?
Replies: 42
Views: 1873

Re: Computer codes availability at indep. repair garages?

This is how to reset the light on a Honda: 1. Press the button on the instrument panel until oil life is displayed. 2. Hold down the button until the oil life starts to flash 3. Release button. 4. Hold button down again until oil life reverts back to 100% I would be very angry being charged 18 dolla...
by crake
Mon Oct 13, 2014 11:31 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Computer codes availability at indep. repair garages?
Replies: 42
Views: 1873

Re: Thoughts on getting out

Hard to answer without more details. The part that worries me is: I plan to take all of the equity out of the house in the form of a heloc. This gives me the cushion I need to help cover tuition, emergencies, living expenses and so on. We plan on selling the house in a few years anyway. If you're re...
by crake
Sun Oct 12, 2014 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on getting out [of job]
Replies: 37
Views: 5193

Re: New 2% cash back Mastercard from Citi

Request for an opinion from board members: should I convert my Citi Forward card to Double Cash? Currently, my card seems to be grandfathered to earn 5 points for restaurants and Amazon (places of relevance). I'm also among the lucky people who still have a forward card with the 5 points bonus. I w...
by crake
Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New 2% cash back Mastercard from Citi
Replies: 237
Views: 32795

Re: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?

1) Lower costs to not tilt 2) It's possible for SV to underperform in the long run. The difference between Vanguard's VTI (total stock) and VBR (small value) is a whopping 4 basis points. The latest I've been hearing from tilting advocates has been that VBR and other funds that fit into M*'s small ...
by crake
Wed Oct 08, 2014 12:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 52
Views: 3130

Re: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?

Something like a Larry Portfolio that is mostly small value with a higher bond allocation performs similarly to a three fund portfolio with less volatility. Let me fix that for you. Something like a Larry Portfolio that is mostly small value with a higher bond allocation performed similarly to a th...
by crake
Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 52
Views: 3130

Re: Private Student Loan attacks after 7 years

Morally you are obliged to repay, but since you attempted to repay I do not see why anyone is entitled to interest. Perhaps you could explain why you believe the OP has a moral imperative to pay. The OP has followed his end of the contract. He attempted to make payments when the loan was due but th...
by crake
Tue Oct 07, 2014 3:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Private Student Loan attacks after 7 years
Replies: 34
Views: 2443

Re: Private Student Loan attacks after 7 years

Below is an interesting story on the debt after market.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014 ... .html?_r=0
by crake
Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Private Student Loan attacks after 7 years
Replies: 34
Views: 2443

Re: Private Student Loan attacks after 7 years

Neither of these companies notified me that the loan was sold to a different creditor. So the time comes 6 months after I graduate to start paying up so I go to pay and realize there's no one to pay because the company doesn't exist anymore! But at that point there is an open account on my credit r...
by crake
Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Private Student Loan attacks after 7 years
Replies: 34
Views: 2443

Re: Is my husband a spendthrift? Or I a tightwad?

Enough advice has been given so I just thought I'd explain my own situation to provide some perspective. My wife and I make less than half of what you and your husband make. We also do not receive any monetary support from our family. We max out both our 401k's and IRA's. Despite these facts we are ...
by crake
Thu Oct 02, 2014 9:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is my husband a spendthrift? Or I a tightwad?
Replies: 198
Views: 16512

Re: LED Flashlights

I've got one of these http://www.dx.com/p/ultrafire-wf-501b-xm-lt6-5-mode-510-lumen-memory-white-led-flashlight-with-strap-1-18650-55241#.VCxqRfldVfc For under 10 bucks shipped I don't think it can be beat. I use it on bike and so far it has survived almost 2 years of riding 4 days a week through ra...
by crake
Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LED Flashlights
Replies: 51
Views: 3779

Re: When should someone "not stay the course"?

I would say the time "not stay the course" would be when the inputs which went into creating your initial IPS have changed or when you acquire some new knowledge which you didn't have at the time you created your IPS. VGTSX being stagnant for 8 years does not meet those criteria. Inputs wh...
by crake
Tue Sep 30, 2014 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When should someone "not stay the course"?
Replies: 43
Views: 2595

Re: Buy today or stick to plan?

Short answer is it doesn't matter so just stick with your plan. 750 dollars will most likely have no noticeable effect on your savings. Longer answer is your better off contributing today but not for the reason you're thinking. Time in the market, not timing the market. The sooner you reinvest divid...
by crake
Thu Sep 25, 2014 1:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buy today or stick to plan?
Replies: 29
Views: 2916

Re: We have a grocery problem...

It sounds like you've got a good handle on what the problem is. You just need the motivation to be able to fix it. I am also in a family of two and our grocery bill probably hovers around 100 dollars a month and we rarely eat out. This is less than half of yours but I still consider it somewhat high...
by crake
Fri Sep 19, 2014 11:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: We have a grocery problem... [Household budget]
Replies: 158
Views: 11184

Re: The boglehead way to buy furniture

I don't think you need to spend a fortune to have a decent looking living room. Our couches came from a close out store and were only about $700 for a sofa and love seat. So far they have held up very well and are showing no signs of wear after four years and two moves. The area rug cost about $300 ...
by crake
Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:58 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The boglehead way to buy furniture
Replies: 56
Views: 5279

Re: 100% Small and Value Tilting

JohnnyFive wrote:I'm fully aware of the risks involved but have never seen such a thing advocated on here for long investment horizons (40+ years)?


The risks involved are that your investments become worthless. This is much less likely to occur with a diversified portfolio of all stocks and bonds.
by crake
Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Small and Value Tilting
Replies: 72
Views: 4745

Re: Buying a home with aluminum wiring?

The aluminum wiring itself is not the problem. It is the terminal connection of the wire to the outlet that is the problem. The wire itself it capable of carrying the full current capacity of the circuit, heater or no heater. You may not realize it but the service drop cable into your home is made ...
by crake
Fri Aug 22, 2014 1:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a home with aluminum wiring?
Replies: 73
Views: 5115

Re: Buying a home with aluminum wiring?

I recently purchased a house with AL wiring and had it completely replaced. My original plan was to simply pigtail but I quickly realized this was not a viable option. One of the issues with pigtailing is the need to find every single electrical junction box. Yes, in a perfect world they should all ...
by crake
Wed Aug 20, 2014 6:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a home with aluminum wiring?
Replies: 73
Views: 5115

Re: How the rich stay/get richer??

Your example is true. If your portfolio earns 8% a year and you only withdraw 2% a year it will increase over time. Where you seem to be a bit confused is focusing on dividends. It does not matter if the 2% spent is dividends or capital growth. The hypothetical investor will have the same amount of ...
by crake
Tue Aug 19, 2014 9:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [live off dividends?] How the rich stay/get richer??
Replies: 62
Views: 5127

Re: ? Best simple reference to dissuade a day trader

Let me give you a very simple example of what sort of trading a day traders does. While you're at work with your index ETFs invested in the general SPY, a professional day trader is watching a real time news feed. Actually, he's not, b/c today, his feeds are automated. Now, let's say the CEO of XYZ...
by crake
Tue Aug 05, 2014 10:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ? Best simple reference to dissuade a day trader
Replies: 67
Views: 4634

Re: ? Best simple reference to dissuade a day trader

This guy is not in even a semipro investing category. He has a history of previously daytrading in a gambling style down to near zero the college accounts for his kids set up by the grandparents (this makes me sad for the kids that this opportunity for them was not preserved). Actually, I believe s...
by crake
Tue Aug 05, 2014 10:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ? Best simple reference to dissuade a day trader
Replies: 67
Views: 4634

Re: How to stop collection for an invalid debt

People telling you send a letter with a return receipt are correct. Here is an example http://nedap.org/resources/documents/DisputeLetterwithElectronicForm.pdf I had a similar issue with Comcast last year. I received a collection letter for a debt I definitely did not owe. They did not once try to c...
by crake
Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to stop collection for an invalid debt
Replies: 31
Views: 2037

Re: Grad school decision - Help requested

This reminds me of the good will hunting quote "you dropped 150 grand on a education you could have got for a dollar fifty in late charges at the public library!" Unless you have unlimited money I don't see this making sense. Surely there must be other, maybe even more authentic, ways for ...
by crake
Tue Jul 29, 2014 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Grad school decision - Help requested
Replies: 25
Views: 2429

Re: Surge protectors

Also check to make sure your circuit breaker on the panel and the GFCI are both 20 amps. The breaker will say 20 on the handle and the outlet will have one T and one I shaped slot instead of 2 I shaped slots (as shown by nisiprius). Find out how much power the blender draws and what else is on the ...
by crake
Mon Jul 28, 2014 9:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Surge protectors
Replies: 41
Views: 3769

Re: One of the simplest rational reasons why some should til

It seems your assumption is that SCV offers more reward for more risk. Couldn't your hypothetical wealthy and retired investor simply increase the equity portion of their portfolio if they want to take on more risk? This could be done at a lower cost and with less complexity than adding a SCV tilt s...
by crake
Fri Jul 25, 2014 12:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One of the simplest rational reasons why some should tilt
Replies: 43
Views: 4387

Re: Momentum Investing ?

I'm an engineer and understand that you cannot compare data generated by two different systems and draw valid conclusions. I just don't see how data that is more than 20 or so years old can be considered a part of the current system given significant changes in ease of purchase. As an engineer I al...
by crake
Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 55
Views: 4868

Re: what is "at-cost investing" ?

Ok, thanks. As I suspected, it's simply a marketing-gimmick way of saying "low expense ratio". It is actually a little bit different than just a low expense ratio. Fidelity and Schwab have low expense ratios but they do not have "at-cost investing". What makes Vanguard different...
by crake
Tue Jul 15, 2014 3:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is "at-cost investing" ?
Replies: 8
Views: 1410

Re: Can I afford a house in this price range? ($500k)

500k home on a 150k take home pay makes me nervous. Even more so that you can't speak to the stability of your job. You also need to consider that a bigger house is going to have higher utility bills, taxes, and maintenance costs. Is your current home in a good enough school district? 1200 square fe...
by crake
Wed Jun 25, 2014 3:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I afford a house in this price range? ($500k)
Replies: 31
Views: 4637

Re: engineers - please help with engineering school selectio

OTOH, even though it appears from this thread that folks are dissing aerospace, I think the skies will be filled with drones in the next 30 years and somebody will be designing and building them. I definitely wouldn't diss aerospace and I think most people would consider that to be one the "re...
by crake
Thu Jun 12, 2014 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: engineers - please help with engineering school selection
Replies: 119
Views: 5679

Re: engineers - please help with engineering school selectio

I'd also like to make one other point about the advantage of EE and ME degrees. They are by far the most flexible degrees. As an EE or ME you can work in almost and industry including Aeronautical and Petroleum. If any one field drys up it is very easy to transition your skills to the next boom. If ...
by crake
Thu Jun 12, 2014 1:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: engineers - please help with engineering school selection
Replies: 119
Views: 5679

Re: engineers - please help with engineering school selectio

I somewhat disagree here. What is in demand in the US right now is systems engineering. Integrating multiple complex systems. Think aircraft, spacecraft, communications networks, etc. India and China are producing engineers who are proving to be as good or better than American/European engineers at...
by crake
Thu Jun 12, 2014 12:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: engineers - please help with engineering school selection
Replies: 119
Views: 5679

Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?

Valuethinker, thanks for your well researched post. I would say I am in agreement with your quote: So a hybrid is not a bad bet although it's not the low cost option. Possibly you could spend that extra money on something else (rainforest protection would be the one I advocate) with a higher environ...
by crake
Mon Jun 02, 2014 9:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
Replies: 105
Views: 8738

Re: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?

I recently did the math for my wifes new car and a hybrid did not make sense. For the people demanding to see the situation shown I'll be glad to. According to KBB a base model civic sedan is about 17.2k. A base model prius is 22.7k. The difference is 5.5k. The civic combined mpg is 31 and the prius...
by crake
Fri May 30, 2014 9:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are hybrid cars a good idea yet?
Replies: 105
Views: 8738

Re: How much house should I buy? (young person with many ass

I have decided to buy over rent, mostly because most of the rental properties in the area I am looking do not appeal to me, and also because if I bought a house I would hopefully live in it for at least five years and thus buying is likely a better option financially. (NYT rent vs. buy calculator c...
by crake
Fri May 23, 2014 8:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much house should I buy? (young person with many assets)
Replies: 71
Views: 5878
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