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Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

In other words, if you have enough set aside in very safe assets to provide for your expenses until approximately age 100 (aka liability matching portfolio), then you can do whatever you want with the rest, including putting all of the excess into equities. I'm concerned that people who don't have ...
by convert949
Thu Dec 11, 2014 9:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7671

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

I am a continuous campaigner that one should invest for total return, that dividends are nothing special. No better, no worse (taxes aside) from other equity returns. To be consistent, I then have to say that dividends cannot be relied on for income any more than capital appreciation can. Don't you...
by convert949
Wed Dec 10, 2014 5:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7671

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

I don't think an LMP discussion would be talking about dividends from stocks. After some thought, I have to agree strongly with what you say here. L. The reason I asked the question is that I recall reading that the 25 year (or so) safe portfolio would be decided upon after taking your income into ...
by convert949
Tue Dec 09, 2014 6:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7671

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

One additional question not asked as of yet... I have all of the dividends from my taxable accounts deposited into my checking account each month/quarter. This reduces my need to tap principle in my investment accounts. In looking at 25 years of safe assets, should one consider your annual need from...
by convert949
Tue Dec 09, 2014 1:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7671

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

My AA is a result of my plan, it does not drive it.L. Isn't this the core argument for any version of an LMP or Bucket approach? The only difference (edit: in the amount of safe assets) is how much time you give the market to recover. You have chosen 6 years, Christine Benz from Morningstar likes 1...
by convert949
Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7671

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

If I can arrange my portfolio dynamically so that I shrink the risk of a big drop just prior to retirement and lower the risk of running out at the end, all while not reducing long-term expected return (even probably getting a little bonus), then that's compelling to me. Pfau and Kitces framed thei...
by convert949
Mon Dec 08, 2014 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7671

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

I think Bernstein does a better job explaining the logic than Pfau and Kitces did. It remains very compelling to me. Why is it compelling when the data are so weak? All they have shown, if you look at their results, is that a rising glide slope is virtually indistinguishable from a constant allocat...
by convert949
Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7671

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

I think Bernstein does a better job explaining the logic than Pfau and Kitces did. It remains very compelling to me. Bernstein is an excellent writer and this piece is clear and straightforward, helping me to understand the choices. He always adds a little humor here and there, such as in this summ...
by convert949
Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7671

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

If you want to think about risk in retirement think March 6, 2009. The S&P500 touched 666 on that day and has run 1400+ points since. What would be the impact to your life and your retirement if that course reversed itself over the next 5 years? Think liability matching, think annuities and FI ...
by convert949
Sun Dec 07, 2014 10:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7671

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

Bonds / LMP: three choices—an inflation-adjusted annuity, TIPS ladder or short-bond portfolio—or any combination of them would match the retiree’s annual needs well, because they all provide a known stream of income and principal over the years. Is it safe to assume that a short term bond portfolio...
by convert949
Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7671

Re: Assets for Liability Matching Portfolio?

A more positive point of view is to think of liability matching as a way to know how much you can afford to put into your risky portfolio -- after coverage of basic needs are addressed. Even with a large portfolio this can ensure you don't risk too much and stumble. Kinda like putting Plan B into e...
by convert949
Wed Nov 19, 2014 7:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Assets for Liability Matching Portfolio?
Replies: 24
Views: 1873

Re: Assets for Liability Matching Portfolio?

A "risk" portfolio in this context can contain any balance of risky and less risky assets that the investor chooses. There are major semantic issues going on when starting a discussion around the liability matching portfolio concept. Indeed... Originally, I had considered these other non-...
by convert949
Wed Nov 19, 2014 3:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Assets for Liability Matching Portfolio?
Replies: 24
Views: 1873

Re: Assets for Liability Matching Portfolio?

To clarify, I am not trying to construct a formal "ladder" so the timing of the sale of these assets would be flexible. I am, however, trying to establish a baseline for what an appropriate "risk portfolio" might be for my particular situation. Thanks in advance for your help an...
by convert949
Wed Nov 19, 2014 3:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Assets for Liability Matching Portfolio?
Replies: 24
Views: 1873

Re: Assets for Liability Matching Portfolio?

Ran across this thread while "surfing" for info on LMP construction. One thought I had that is particular to my situation is the use of "non-investment" assets as a part of LMP planning. In particular, I own real estate other than my primary residence in the form of an income pro...
by convert949
Wed Nov 19, 2014 10:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Assets for Liability Matching Portfolio?
Replies: 24
Views: 1873

Re: How much do you keep in bucket one for those that use th

the stock market surpassed its 1929 precrash high in March 1937 — 7½ years later I was thinking of this much or more so I could sleep well at night. If you have 7.5 years in bucket one should you be able to put all your other money in the market would that be safe? Personal choice but don't think y...
by convert949
Wed Oct 29, 2014 6:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much do you keep in bucket one for those that use the
Replies: 7
Views: 1307

Re: Bucket Approach Redux

This was brought up in a panel discussion with Benz and others at BH 13. I was a little surprised that no one really objected to it. Someone sent in a question comparing a safe withdrawal rate, liability matching and bucket approach. That would be me... I posted a similar question on the forum just...
by convert949
Sun Oct 26, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bucket Approach Redux
Replies: 35
Views: 2776

Re: POLL: How fulfilling is your retirement?

exoilman wrote:
Toons wrote:Life is what you make it,whether retired or not ,it was great before retirement and it is great in retirement.I am content :happy


operative word, content. Same here :happy

+1 :sharebeer
by convert949
Tue Oct 21, 2014 5:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: How fulfilling is your retirement?
Replies: 34
Views: 3071

Re: Help me choose... [Retirement withdrawal strategy]

Retiree here... Just finished reconfiguring my portfolio for the next 30 years having just turned 65. SS and SPIA's will cover my "basic" needs (about 60% of current expenses). I am withdrawing about 3.5% of our portfolio annually to support the balance of our current expenses. Bernstein'...
by convert949
Mon Oct 20, 2014 2:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me choose... [Retirement withdrawal strategy]
Replies: 12
Views: 1298

Re: Help me choose... [Retirement withdrawal strategy]

I guess the thirds' comes closest for me. But, I like WM Bernstein's idea of putting more emphasis on securing your retirement as the main focus. First put 20-25 years of your anticipated retirement drawdown needs in "safe" products. e.g. short term bonds/funds, CDs, etc. and then invest ...
by convert949
Mon Oct 20, 2014 6:58 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me choose... [Retirement withdrawal strategy]
Replies: 12
Views: 1298

Help me choose... [Retirement withdrawal strategy]

Retiree here... Just finished reconfiguring my portfolio for the next 30 years having just turned 65. SS and SPIA's will cover my "basic" needs (about 60% of current expenses). I am withdrawing about 3.5% of our portfolio annually to support the balance of our current expenses. Going forwa...
by convert949
Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me choose... [Retirement withdrawal strategy]
Replies: 12
Views: 1298

Re: Are Savings Bonds Considered Cash?

Quick question... I have $30k in I and EE Savings Bonds my Grandma bought for me 30 years. Paying about 4-5% yield. Should those be considered part of our emergency fund or are they part of the 20% bonds I plan to keep in my investment portfolio? Thank you! Bogleboy Depends... I would choose one of...
by convert949
Sun Oct 12, 2014 3:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Savings Bonds Considered Cash?
Replies: 16
Views: 1021

Re: I Bonds in Trust (Applicable Limits)

Not sure of how it might affect limits but you can have your estate re-title the I bonds to the trusts after your passing. My wife and I have provided for this by having any assets in our individual names flow to the trust upon our death. I have a similar situation with my dad... He has some of his ...
by convert949
Wed Oct 08, 2014 8:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I Bonds in Trust (Applicable Limits)
Replies: 7
Views: 842

Re: Why not 100% CD's?

The529guy, thanks for the links, but I'd already read those and, unless I missed it, there's nothing in there about whether individuals can buy the maximum annual amount of ibonds with their own social security number (say $20k), and then in the same year buy an additional $20k with their trust tha...
by convert949
Sat Sep 27, 2014 1:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not 100% CD's?
Replies: 73
Views: 5474

Re: Why not 100% CD's?

My dad, at 88 has all his assets in FDIC banks. Earlier, at my age (65) he dabbled in individual stocks. In my opinion, the rules at 65 are different than the rules at 88. The rules also change over time... The fixed income he had at 65 was paying 4-6% (much of it in Savings Bonds). If it were not f...
by convert949
Sat Sep 27, 2014 10:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not 100% CD's?
Replies: 73
Views: 5474

Re: MAGI for Medicare Rates

Deleted by OP... Never Mind...
by convert949
Sun Aug 10, 2014 12:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MAGI for Medicare Rates
Replies: 36
Views: 1946

Re: MAGI for Medicare Rates

Your MAGI is your adjusted gross income as used on line 37 of IRS form 1040 plus your tax-exempt interest income as used on line 8b of IRS form 1040. P.S. Stop reading household names. Good advice sscritic... Thanks again (I posted previously on IRMAA and you were a great help). At that time, you a...
by convert949
Sun Aug 10, 2014 12:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MAGI for Medicare Rates
Replies: 36
Views: 1946

MAGI for Medicare Rates

Good Morning, I am looking for help in getting a definitive answer about what is included in a retiree's MAGI calculation for Medicare. I have a "one year" penalty ahead for 2014 as I restructure my portfolio at 65. I am aware that I am already in the penalty area due to the necessity to t...
by convert949
Sun Aug 10, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MAGI for Medicare Rates
Replies: 36
Views: 1946

Re: Bond Distributions

⋅ YTM corresponds to SEC Yield for a bond fund except it is before deducting expenses. ⋅ Current yield equals interest divided by price and corresponds to "Distribution Yield" for a bond fund. ⋅ The fall in price corresponds to a fall in Net Asset Value per s...
by convert949
Sat Jul 05, 2014 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Distributions
Replies: 6
Views: 638

Bond Distributions

I hold both Van Intermediate Term Tax Exempt and TBM and have the dividends deposited into my checking account each month (I am retired). I have noticed that the Tax Exempt fund dividends are higher than TBM even though the SEC yield is lower. Looking back, I see that this has been true over time, s...
by convert949
Sat Jul 05, 2014 7:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Distributions
Replies: 6
Views: 638

Re: Short Term Bonds or 2 Year CD's

CDs are FDIC insured. Short term bond funds are not insured. You have already written the interest rate environment issue for the short term bond fund. (I have been investing in short term investment grade, VFSUX for shorter term needs which offers a little higher yield than yours, but it has somew...
by convert949
Thu Jun 19, 2014 7:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Bonds or 2 Year CD's
Replies: 13
Views: 1450

Short Term Bonds or 2 Year CD's

I just read the following on M*. http://news.morningstar.com/all/dow-jones/us-markets/201406188923/fed-officials-nudge-up-projections-for-short-term-interest-rates-in-2015-2016.aspx I have several CD's coming due soon that are part of my shorter term portion of our portfolio. They were originally 2 ...
by convert949
Wed Jun 18, 2014 3:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Bonds or 2 Year CD's
Replies: 13
Views: 1450

Re: Q&A with Jack Bogle at 2014 Bogleheads Conference

abuss368 wrote:
Munir wrote:Question to Jack:

Which Vanguard bond fund (or combination of funds) should a retiree in the distribution phase use in his IRA if 70% of his portfolio is in fixed income?


Including Jack's thoughts on Vanguard's new Total International Bond Fund!

+1
by convert949
Fri May 02, 2014 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Q&A WITH JACK BOGLE AT THE 2014 BOGLEHEAD CONFERENCE
Replies: 38
Views: 16229

Re: Trying to learn about Brokered CD's

I use Vanguard CDs in my IRA and Ally and Discover Bank in my taxable account. One difference you didn't mention about brokered CD's is that you can't reinvest the CD interest in that CD -- it is paid in cash. If you are not sure about holding to maturity than an online bank is for you. Just watch ...
by convert949
Thu Apr 24, 2014 8:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to learn about Brokered CD's
Replies: 24
Views: 1964

Re: Trying to learn about Brokered CD's

One note is that in secondary market brokered CDs tend to trade at HIGHER YIELDS (which is why we tend to buy them there, just like with munis which tend to trade at higher yields in secondary than in initial offering) Larry Sorry I've not been around... Dealing with a nasty bug the past few days. ...
by convert949
Wed Apr 23, 2014 6:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to learn about Brokered CD's
Replies: 24
Views: 1964

Re: Trying to learn about Brokered CD's

Be very sure on how the CD is titled, as you may not qualify for the full amount of FDIC insurance. See the wiki: Certificate of deposit (Brokered CDs) LadyGeek, Thanks for the link... Very informative Also, by titling into our Trusts as well in our individual name, POD accounts to our kids, etc., ...
by convert949
Sun Apr 20, 2014 6:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to learn about Brokered CD's
Replies: 24
Views: 1964

Re: Trying to learn about Brokered CD's

By contrast, with a direct CD you can take out the money and reinvest at the higher rate, so a 5 year CD behaves more like, say, a 1 year bond in that regard, and you get to pocket the significant difference between 1 year and 5 year yields. I took this to heart and compared buying a 3 year CD to b...
by convert949
Sun Apr 20, 2014 6:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to learn about Brokered CD's
Replies: 24
Views: 1964

Trying to learn about Brokered CD's

Currently, I have been contemplating the purchase of CD's from an online bank. It seems that the rates vary greatly from one to the other at different times. Short of spreading money all over the universe, I thought of brokered, new issue CD's through Vanguard. In this way, I can take advantage of t...
by convert949
Sun Apr 20, 2014 12:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to learn about Brokered CD's
Replies: 24
Views: 1964

Re: Fixed Income Categories

Within the FI universe, I view cash as anything that preserves principal and bonds as everything else. But I find it interesting that many people are using short-term bond funds for cash and even (amazingly enough) high yield bond funds. Those folks are being seduced by the current low volatilty an...
by convert949
Sat Apr 19, 2014 8:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income Categories
Replies: 19
Views: 1495

Re: Bernstein retirement plan

Im there now...I struggled for years attempting to find the "right" asset allocation, and when I read Bernstein, and particularly Zwecher (and others), I heartily embraced the LMP concept. I am 72 YO and have been retired for 10 years with my spouse (also retired) who is 5 years younger. ...
by convert949
Fri Apr 18, 2014 9:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bernstein retirement plan
Replies: 41
Views: 7399

Re: Fixed Income Categories

I think the whole timing issue is a red herring for almost all investors. In the rare case (rare for most discussions here) that a person wants an exact amount of money at an exact time, then buying a bond that matures at that time makes sense. For the investor who is building a portfolio time is m...
by convert949
Fri Apr 18, 2014 9:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income Categories
Replies: 19
Views: 1495

Re: Bernstein retirement plan

I would like to hear from any retired Bogleheads who are following Mr. Bernstein's advice to protect 25x residual living expenses (the yearly shortfall you have to make up after SS and pension/annuity) in highly liquid, low risk assets (short-term high quality bonds, treasuries, TIPs, CDs). This id...
by convert949
Fri Apr 18, 2014 8:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bernstein retirement plan
Replies: 41
Views: 7399

Re: Fixed Income Categories

I think it is far better to talk about what investment specifically one might choose rather than worry about how to label that investment. For example, I bonds could make a lot of sense. How much sense they make has nothing to do with whether or not you can figure out that they are cash or bonds. I...
by convert949
Fri Apr 18, 2014 8:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income Categories
Replies: 19
Views: 1495

Fixed Income Categories

I am curious as to what other Bogleheads consider CD's and I Bonds... are they bonds or cash? In one sense, I see them as cash since the principle value does not change. On the other hand, both are somewhat restricted as I bonds are not salable in the first year and both categories include penalties...
by convert949
Fri Apr 18, 2014 7:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Income Categories
Replies: 19
Views: 1495

Re: Retiring soon....Help!

Jim85 wrote:livesoft, good stuff, thank you.


+1... I especially liked the "Spend it while you can" option :D
by convert949
Sun Apr 13, 2014 7:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring soon....Help!
Replies: 8
Views: 1480

Experience with Vanguard Recommended SPIA Companies

Has anyone on the forum had any experience with the insurance companies recommended by Vanguard for the purchase of SPIA's? I am contemplating the purchase of 3 SPIA's in order to divide the amounts to spread the risk and stay under our state insurance pools coverage amount. The 4 available for the ...
by convert949
Sat Apr 05, 2014 7:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Experience with Vanguard Recommended SPIA Companies
Replies: 0
Views: 165

Re: How Many Properties Do You Own?

Three... Primary residence, vacation home and rental property (rented to kids). No mortgages...
by convert949
Sat Apr 05, 2014 6:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many Properties Do You Own?
Replies: 19
Views: 2283

Re: "The Average Investor Should Use a Financial Adviser"

Postscript... after reading and participating in this thread, I decided to go back to Vanguard for a "tune up" and some validation about some changes I had long planned in our IPS as I turn 65. My plan included the consideration of SPIA's to create a "pension" and a general de-ri...
by convert949
Sat Apr 05, 2014 6:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Average Investor Should Use a Financial Adviser"
Replies: 51
Views: 7597

Re: And suddenly, I'm done...

TimesAWastin... Congratulations on your retirement! I know EXACTLY how you feel... I made the last trade today to bring me to my (65+) IPS Asset Allocation. Even though I have been retired since 2009, I had maintained my "working" AA through 65 to make sure we recovered from 2008. With the...
by convert949
Thu Apr 03, 2014 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: And suddenly, I'm done...
Replies: 24
Views: 5138

Re: Appealing Medicare income limits

dan999 - Well... I am retired and have been since early 2009, therefore the advice from sscritic holds... I have decided to "rip off the bandaid" in 2014 and get it over with as I am still well within the current band for IRMAA and the amount of Net Investment Tax will be modest... I have ...
by convert949
Thu Apr 03, 2014 10:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Appealing Medicare income limits
Replies: 8
Views: 785

Re: Appealing Medicare income limits

Thanks sscritic... According to the categories and I have ~$70K remaining in the current bracket. It will take about another $50K in Capital Gains to meet my goal but will result in an additional $1900 in Net Investment Tax if I go forward in 2014. Hmm :?: Thanks to both of you for all your help. Bob
by convert949
Wed Apr 02, 2014 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Appealing Medicare income limits
Replies: 8
Views: 785
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