Bogleheads.org

DouglasDoug wrote:So sad. Majority of people who chase this nonsense do not practice simple investing.

Entertainment value for me. Spending $100/yr on lotto tickets is sort of fun. For the vast majority of people that I see purchasing tickets though, your point is dead on.

I would take the cash and run. Invest in plenty of hard assets. Safety and pacing inflation would be my primary onjectives. I would hold plenty of non-boglehead investments. Lots of hard assets such as gold, investment grade diamonds, real estate and plenty of government bonds/cash. 5% US Stocks 5% ...

I would say the best time to lever up obviously was 3-4 years ago. I would be inclined to de-lever, put at least 20-30%+ in short term bonds, and then go back in with leverage after the next 30% draw down. It's possible that you wouldn't be able to lever up for quite some time (years possibly), but ...

This issue could get quite interesting over the next two decades, as demographics have turned unfavorable in the US. Large numbers of Boomers are retiring, many of whom have spent as much or more than they made over the last two decades. We've all seen how financially under-prepared people are and o...

Investing into a small business, as a passive investor. It had a lottery type of pay off with low odds of success.

Lesson learned, that most small businesses fail.

I don't think we're necessarily in a bubble because of valuations. Stocks have basically gone no where for the past 13 years in real terms. And relative to the price of gold it looks pretty cheap. My fear though is that stocks and many other asset classes have been so artificially inflated with Cent...

I read the OP and skipped to the bottom of the page to reply....

I'm guessing every single post before me agreed that you're being WAY too aggressive with a portfolio for a 58 y/o who already has $7mm.

Gold is down I believe because real interest rates are turning slightly positive and trending up. Deflation is starting to rear its ugly head, IMO.

What about way OTM calls on Nikkei futures. As with all trades timing is everything of course but that may be a cheap way to play Japanese inflation without a huge downside risk. I guess what I would be worried about is what happens to a short JGB trade if there is a sudden panic/correction soon? Th...

The short JGB trade has a nickname.... "The Widow Maker". Keep that in mind and tread lightly IMO. People have been saying that for a decade or more now and so far it hasn't worked out like that. If the BOJ buys the vast majority of the bonds that they sell, as is the case currently, what'...

My wife and I decided that it was best for her to stay home 4 years ago although our salaries were about half of what you're taking about. It was definitely the right choice and we don't regret it. You do have to give up a few perks and I'll certainly have to work longer but that's a small price to ...

I don't see why this thread would be locked. This is a legitimate investment question, IMO.

You have to accept that she was raised with completely different cultural values than you were, including how money is handled. This is not uncommon with foreigners. I'm sure if you went 2-3 generations back, your own family may have carried some of the same values related to family and money. It is...

-freaking out - Why, do you live in Cyprus? This could easily become a very big deal globally, IMO. This could lead to a bank run in the EU. Their banks are already way under-capped and their economy is flat-lined. A banking collapse could cause very well steamroll into something more significant t...

Turn him on to Harry Browne and the Permanent Portfolio. It may or may not be the highest performing portfolio in the coming years, but it's well balanced,low volatility, hedged for high inflation (yet still give you a positive real return if the economy does well), and will be 10x better than him p...

Without reading a 29 page thread, can someone give me the quick version of the marketimer experience?

I'm guessing he used leverage in trying to time the market and it ended baldy in 2008/09???

Nancy, wish you well but you really do sound like you're blaming the people that loaned you money for your leveraged position. I can't tell you anything that hasn't been said, but I think it's sort of ridiculous to complain about debt, and "being beholden to big corporations" and "scr...

Great thread. Love the debate. I see both sides of the fence. I happen to believe that inflation is such a dynamic variable, within the context of the other factors that contribute to a global economy, that there simply is no one-sized-fits-all way to hedge inflation. Timing which inflation hedge is...

clacy, I read the linked paper on REITs and other inflation hedges. It does get a bit complicated, but think I may add some REITs once I no longer have the investment property. Investor2, keep in mind that this study was done by a VP of NAREIT, so there is some bias. They do also point out that the...

I don't think there is any one particular "magic inflation hedge". Here is a good research paper that looks specifically at REIT's as an inflation hedge, but also looks at gold, commodities, tips and stocks. http://realestate.wharton.upenn.edu/research/papers/full/716.pdf I think you have ...

Many people get too caught up in politics and the news and let that sour their investment choices. It's easy to read about the deficit and the problems in Washington and assume that the world is going to blow up. It seems pretty clear to me that most central banks are going to continue accommodating...

Is there a method of using TIPS vs nominal bonds to calculate real interest rates?

The question is how long until a Financial Transaction Tax is enacted in the US

I agree - owning a bunch of gold does provide some insurance for rare "left tail" events such as currency collapse, hyperinflation, etc. I believe in having some insurance to protect myself from catastrophic one-off events, so I have homeowner's insurance and auto insurance, and I own a l...

You aren't going to get the kind of returns PTTRX gets without getting a little creative

With all due respect to the authors, who I do respect, I would highly recommend that the first Permanent Portfolio book you look into is "Fail-Safe Investing" by Harry Browne himself. It's a quick read, and very informative on why Harry chose the PP. It is the cornerstone for the portfolio...

I would sell it ASAP. Farmland is in a ridiculous bubble and we all know how those usually end. Of course that is simply my personal opinion. But regardless, you have to figure out a way to get a fair rent should you decide to keep the property.

3CT_Paddler wrote:Question for PP proponents... Isn't it possible that something like Executive Order 6102 is issued (confiscating all private gold) again?

No world currency (majors) use a gold standard any more, so I'm not sure why they would confiscate gold.

Of all the sharks out there in the investment world, they choose Ray Lucia to pick on? Jon Corzine walks free, they're going after Lucia.... Unbelievable.

Where is the proof that 70 is new 65? Wishful thinking perhaps. I rarely see a wrinkled face in corporate America. Working until 70 doesn't necessarily mean that you have work in a high powered finance job, or as a flashy sales person, etc. In fact, in your 60's you may have to take a significant p...

Americans working longer because they are living longer and healthier longer is a good thing. I don't see how this could be considered otherwise. Retirement is fine and all, but it stands to reason that if we live longer, we'll have to work longer as well. That is simple economics and a trade off th...

Hmmmm, scared of an unexpected gold find on another planet? I guess I'm more afraid of central banks around the world continuing to pursue a currency devaluation strategy in an effort to maintain social programs that don't seem to be economically feasible without inflating. I'm betting on my gold po...

Based on your last post, I would recommend quitting ASAP, or at least as soon as you get your $100k. Start a family. Raise your kids, while your wife works, and go back to school while you're a stay at home dad. Think long and hard about professions that you can do without a lot of interaction with ...

What a great problem to have? There are millions that think the very same thing about their job (hate it, stressful, anxiety, etc), but they aren't in nearly as good of a financial position. Imagine if you had a stay at home wife and 6 minor children.... I say retire. You can downsize your home, min...

At least we'll know who was right 20 years from now

30 years ago my grandmother fell under the spell of a succession of newsletter writers, each more pessimistic/paranoid than the last. It drove my father bonkers back then. For the past decade my father has done the same thing. In the event that there is a dominant gene at play here, I'm going to ma...

If anybody read Welcome to Dystopia! Entering a long-term and politically dangerous food crisis Jeremy Grantham recommends for those with a 10 year time horizon allocating 15 of their portfolio in forestry and farms, 10% in "stuff in the ground" and 5% in resource efficiency plays. Can an...

I would give 15% off the top to church/charities. I would probably give 25% to my parents, siblings, (wife's too) I would take 40% to set up in a trust for my kids That would leave 20% for my wife and I. I would earmark a couple million to blow on cars, homes, trips, etc The rest would be invested i...

FAZ and FAS are 3x leveraged products and they track the financial services index, not the S&P, fyi....

You're point remains however, that they are not for long term trading for most investors.

Is it time to pile into U.S. treasuries? Since you asked: the answer is No No NO. Do not buy treasuries. Here are the forecasts of the "experts" at the 2012 Bespoke Roundtable. With everyone on one side of the bond trade, I'm thinking there's no way for them to go but up! Buy with both ha...

Your best bet is clearly to continue working through this season and then scrambling like crazy to find another career in the off season. You're going to be unemployed anyways in a few months so there's no reason to be unemployed voluntarily right now. The biggest question you have to figure out is ...

Overall, DR provides a very valuable service to the public. The vast majority of people would be well served by listening to his main argument, that they should stay out of debt and live below their means. With that said, on the investment side, he leaves a little to be desired. Quoting 12%pa return...

A similar ETF (symbol PERM) just came out. Volume is a little low as it is so new, but the fees are lower and the ETF is true to Harry Browne's latest version of the Permanent Portfolio, which is: 25% Gold 25% Long Term Treasuries 25% Cash 25% US Stocks PRPFX is very similar, but holds a little less...

Hannity is so wealthy he can invest in baseball cards or works of art and he'll still always be wealthy. I actually tend to agree with him politically, but I would never trust him for investment information. It's no different than looking to someone like Brad Pitt for investment advice, IMO.

There are two separate issues at hand, IMO: 1- Your legal obligation, which is non-existent if you're not on the mortgage. Any credit/legal damage would follow your wife, not you. 2- The moral obligation for you to pay since you have the means to do so. You have to answer that one on your own. I wou...

Why do I get the feeling that this link loaded my computer with spyware?

Hindsight will be the only way to know which one will perform better in the next 30 years. Clearly you would have wanted to be 100% Permanent Portfolio for the last decade, but the decade previous to that, I'm sure Swenson's portfolio trounced the PP. It doesn't have to be either/or. You could put 5...

I personally prefer to have some diversification across multiple brokers. I use 4 different brokers, which at times can be a pain in the rear, but also gives me a little more peace of mind at night.

I have a ST account as well, but will not trade their ETF's until they get above 50k shares/day. The last time I looked, they had a long way to go.

I have found this show to be unlistenable in the past year or so. I usually check to see if Bob is hosting. If he's there, I'll listen, but as you said, it's mostly mortgate/housing related. Lynn Jimenez is the worst. If she's on, I immediately turn off the radio.