Search found 77 matches

Return to advanced search

Re: XC90

Forgot to add, one of the biggest drawbacks is gas mileage. I guess that's the tradeoff for the 3rd row and engineering a car for high safety ratings.
by clacy
Wed Aug 06, 2014 12:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: XC90 [Volvo XC90 SUV]
Replies: 40
Views: 2757

Re: XC90

I recently bought a 2006 w/95k miles to replace my Camry that I had around 200k on. I needed a 3rd row because I have 3 kids in car seats. My wife drives a large SUV with a 3rd row, but I need that for work occasionally which leaves her with a car that is difficult to get all 3 kids (car seats) in. ...
by clacy
Wed Aug 06, 2014 10:00 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: XC90 [Volvo XC90 SUV]
Replies: 40
Views: 2757

Re: Brett Arend's 10 fund "All-Weather" portfolio

A 15 year backtest is really unimpressive IMO.
by clacy
Fri Jun 13, 2014 6:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brett Arends's "Perfect Portfolio" Comments?
Replies: 24
Views: 1802

Re: How To Encourage A Young (Sensitive) Child In Sports

My first suggestion is let someone else coach and see if that helps. He may just not like the dynamic of having his coach be his father. Secondly, if that doesn't help, stop worrying about it. Focus on the important things in life such as raising him to be a good person. The extracurricular activiti...
by clacy
Sun Jun 08, 2014 4:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How To Encourage A Young (Sensitive) Child In Sports
Replies: 115
Views: 5571

Re: My relatives insulted my family for 40 years and think t

It's weird to me that anyone outside of children and a spouse would feel entitled to a relative's money, but I'm sure it happens all the time.
by clacy
Thu Nov 14, 2013 12:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My relatives insulted my family for 40 years and think they
Replies: 131
Views: 10496

Re: new job 3.5 hours away

It can't hurt to ask. The worst that could be said is "no". Don't assume to know the answer before asking because you might be pleasantly surprised.
by clacy
Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: new job 3.5 hours away
Replies: 21
Views: 2180

Re: Career Transition Question

Is your personality suited to sell to others? Can you handle daily rejection and not take it personally? Can you stay persistent when chasing business (some people will inevitably think you're annoying)? If you feel like more times than not the answer to those questions are yes, then I would tell yo...
by clacy
Sat Aug 03, 2013 10:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Transition Question
Replies: 10
Views: 1054

Re: Do you need bonds if you're ultra-wealthy?

I would only care about pacing inflation if I had that kind of wealth. Something like:

5% US Stocks
5% Foreign Stocks
15% Gold
10% Real Estate
30% Intermediate US Treasuries (nominal and TIPS)
35% Short Term US Treasuries
by clacy
Sat Aug 03, 2013 12:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you need bonds if you're ultra-wealthy?
Replies: 43
Views: 2661

Re: $550M Powerball Jackpot - take cash or annuity?

DouglasDoug wrote:So sad. Majority of people who chase this nonsense do not practice simple investing.


Entertainment value for me. Spending $100/yr on lotto tickets is sort of fun. For the vast majority of people that I see purchasing tickets though, your point is dead on.
by clacy
Fri May 17, 2013 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $600M Powerball Jackpot - take cash or annuity?
Replies: 86
Views: 6036

Re: $550M Powerball Jackpot - take cash or annuity?

I would take the cash and run. Invest in plenty of hard assets. Safety and pacing inflation would be my primary onjectives. I would hold plenty of non-boglehead investments. Lots of hard assets such as gold, investment grade diamonds, real estate and plenty of government bonds/cash. 5% US Stocks 5% ...
by clacy
Fri May 17, 2013 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $600M Powerball Jackpot - take cash or annuity?
Replies: 86
Views: 6036

Re: Using Ayres/Nalebuff leveraged strategy (Lifecycle Inv.)

I would say the best time to lever up obviously was 3-4 years ago. I would be inclined to de-lever, put at least 20-30%+ in short term bonds, and then go back in with leverage after the next 30% draw down. It's possible that you wouldn't be able to lever up for quite some time (years possibly), but ...
by clacy
Fri May 10, 2013 9:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using Ayres/Nalebuff leveraged strategy (Lifecycle Inv.)
Replies: 32
Views: 3094

Re: Your Dumbest Financial Move

Investing into a small business, as a passive investor. It had a lottery type of pay off with low odds of success.

Lesson learned, that most small businesses fail.
by clacy
Sat Apr 27, 2013 11:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Dumbest Financial Move
Replies: 166
Views: 13235

Re: Are we in a stock bubble?

I don't think we're necessarily in a bubble because of valuations. Stocks have basically gone no where for the past 13 years in real terms. And relative to the price of gold it looks pretty cheap. My fear though is that stocks and many other asset classes have been so artificially inflated with Cent...
by clacy
Sat Apr 27, 2013 11:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in a stock bubble?
Replies: 49
Views: 4572

Re: Help me manage a $7 million portfolio.

I read the OP and skipped to the bottom of the page to reply....

I'm guessing every single post before me agreed that you're being WAY too aggressive with a portfolio for a 58 y/o who already has $7mm.
by clacy
Tue Apr 16, 2013 9:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me manage a $7 million portfolio.
Replies: 105
Views: 12900

Re: Gold is crashing!

Gold is down I believe because real interest rates are turning slightly positive and trending up. Deflation is starting to rear its ugly head, IMO.
by clacy
Sat Apr 13, 2013 11:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold is crashing!
Replies: 15
Views: 1844

Re: Shorting Japanese Government Bond Futures

What about way OTM calls on Nikkei futures. As with all trades timing is everything of course but that may be a cheap way to play Japanese inflation without a huge downside risk. I guess what I would be worried about is what happens to a short JGB trade if there is a sudden panic/correction soon? Th...
by clacy
Fri Apr 12, 2013 12:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shorting Japanese Government Bond Futures
Replies: 8
Views: 676

Re: Shorting Japanese Government Bond Futures

The short JGB trade has a nickname.... "The Widow Maker". Keep that in mind and tread lightly IMO. People have been saying that for a decade or more now and so far it hasn't worked out like that. If the BOJ buys the vast majority of the bonds that they sell, as is the case currently, what'...
by clacy
Thu Apr 11, 2013 11:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shorting Japanese Government Bond Futures
Replies: 8
Views: 676

Re: Should my wife keep working or become a stay-at-home mom

My wife and I decided that it was best for her to stay home 4 years ago although our salaries were about half of what you're taking about. It was definitely the right choice and we don't regret it. You do have to give up a few perks and I'll certainly have to work longer but that's a small price to ...
by clacy
Mon Apr 08, 2013 1:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should my wife keep working or become a stay-at-home mom?
Replies: 112
Views: 8406

Re: Will switching to Chained CPI hurt TIPS?

I don't see why this thread would be locked. This is a legitimate investment question, IMO.
by clacy
Sat Mar 30, 2013 2:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will switching to Chained CPI hurt TIPS?
Replies: 13
Views: 806

Re: Girlfriend Sends Money Home Every Month...Driving Me Nut

You have to accept that she was raised with completely different cultural values than you were, including how money is handled. This is not uncommon with foreigners. I'm sure if you went 2-3 generations back, your own family may have carried some of the same values related to family and money. It is...
by clacy
Thu Mar 21, 2013 3:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Girlfriend Sends Money Home Every Month...Driving Me Nuts!
Replies: 41
Views: 4597

Re: Doomsday:Cyprus confiscate 10% of all bank accounts bala

-freaking out - Why, do you live in Cyprus? This could easily become a very big deal globally, IMO. This could lead to a bank run in the EU. Their banks are already way under-capped and their economy is flat-lined. A banking collapse could cause very well steamroll into something more significant t...
by clacy
Sat Mar 16, 2013 8:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doomsday:Cyprus confiscate 10% of all bank accounts balances
Replies: 36
Views: 4319

Re: Father considering cashing out 401K early -- market fear

Turn him on to Harry Browne and the Permanent Portfolio. It may or may not be the highest performing portfolio in the coming years, but it's well balanced,low volatility, hedged for high inflation (yet still give you a positive real return if the economy does well), and will be 10x better than him p...
by clacy
Tue Mar 12, 2013 10:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Father considering cashing out 401K early -- market fear
Replies: 34
Views: 2338

Re: Bogleheads, why is this taboo? [Use Leverage in a Portfo

Without reading a 29 page thread, can someone give me the quick version of the marketimer experience?

I'm guessing he used leverage in trying to time the market and it ended baldy in 2008/09???
by clacy
Fri Mar 01, 2013 12:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads, why is this taboo? [Use Leverage in a Portfolio]
Replies: 189
Views: 15150

Re: Never Want To Take Out A Loan Again.

Nancy, wish you well but you really do sound like you're blaming the people that loaned you money for your leveraged position. I can't tell you anything that hasn't been said, but I think it's sort of ridiculous to complain about debt, and "being beholden to big corporations" and "scr...
by clacy
Wed Feb 27, 2013 11:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Never Want To Take Out A Loan Again.
Replies: 110
Views: 7483

Re: Is gold the best inflation-fighting asset? Maybe not.

Great thread. Love the debate. I see both sides of the fence. I happen to believe that inflation is such a dynamic variable, within the context of the other factors that contribute to a global economy, that there simply is no one-sized-fits-all way to hedge inflation. Timing which inflation hedge is...
by clacy
Fri Feb 08, 2013 6:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is gold the best inflation-fighting asset? Maybe not.
Replies: 36
Views: 1934

Re: TIPS and other hedges against inflation

clacy, I read the linked paper on REITs and other inflation hedges. It does get a bit complicated, but think I may add some REITs once I no longer have the investment property. Investor2, keep in mind that this study was done by a VP of NAREIT, so there is some bias. They do also point out that the...
by clacy
Tue Feb 05, 2013 7:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS and other hedges against inflation
Replies: 25
Views: 3115

Re: TIPS and other hedges against inflation

I don't think there is any one particular "magic inflation hedge". Here is a good research paper that looks specifically at REIT's as an inflation hedge, but also looks at gold, commodities, tips and stocks. http://realestate.wharton.upenn.edu/research/papers/full/716.pdf I think you have ...
by clacy
Mon Feb 04, 2013 11:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS and other hedges against inflation
Replies: 25
Views: 3115

Re: The Future Looks Bright for Stocks

Many people get too caught up in politics and the news and let that sour their investment choices. It's easy to read about the deficit and the problems in Washington and assume that the world is going to blow up. It seems pretty clear to me that most central banks are going to continue accommodating...
by clacy
Fri Jan 25, 2013 12:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Future Looks Bright for Stocks
Replies: 17
Views: 1995

Re: Inflation; Total Bond Market; GNMAs; and TIPS

Is there a method of using TIPS vs nominal bonds to calculate real interest rates?
by clacy
Sat Jan 19, 2013 8:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation; Total Bond Market; GNMAs; and TIPS
Replies: 18
Views: 2994

Re: New tax on French equities purchases.

The question is how long until a Financial Transaction Tax is enacted in the US
by clacy
Sat Jan 12, 2013 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New tax on French equities purchases.
Replies: 4
Views: 654

Re: "The Permanent Portfolio" - questions & observations

I agree - owning a bunch of gold does provide some insurance for rare "left tail" events such as currency collapse, hyperinflation, etc. I believe in having some insurance to protect myself from catastrophic one-off events, so I have homeowner's insurance and auto insurance, and I own a l...
by clacy
Fri Jan 11, 2013 10:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Permanent Portfolio" - questions & observations
Replies: 32
Views: 3685

Re: Pimco etf - BOND - holdings compared

You aren't going to get the kind of returns PTTRX gets without getting a little creative
by clacy
Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco etf - BOND - holdings compared
Replies: 4
Views: 590

Re: Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio

With all due respect to the authors, who I do respect, I would highly recommend that the first Permanent Portfolio book you look into is "Fail-Safe Investing" by Harry Browne himself. It's a quick read, and very informative on why Harry chose the PP. It is the cornerstone for the portfolio...
by clacy
Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 128
Views: 13201

Re: What would you do - $450K in farm land

I would sell it ASAP. Farmland is in a ridiculous bubble and we all know how those usually end. Of course that is simply my personal opinion. But regardless, you have to figure out a way to get a fair rent should you decide to keep the property.
by clacy
Mon Oct 01, 2012 9:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What would you do - $450K in farm land
Replies: 28
Views: 2493

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

3CT_Paddler wrote:Question for PP proponents... Isn't it possible that something like Executive Order 6102 is issued (confiscating all private gold) again?


No world currency (majors) use a gold standard any more, so I'm not sure why they would confiscate gold.
by clacy
Mon Sep 10, 2012 6:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 507
Views: 107878

Re: Ray Lucia charged by SEC - "Buckets of Money" Sep 5, 201

Of all the sharks out there in the investment world, they choose Ray Lucia to pick on? Jon Corzine walks free, they're going after Lucia.... Unbelievable.
by clacy
Fri Sep 07, 2012 9:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Lucia charged by SEC - "Buckets of Money" Sep 5, 2012
Replies: 136
Views: 12370

Re: 70 is the New 65

Where is the proof that 70 is new 65? Wishful thinking perhaps. I rarely see a wrinkled face in corporate America. Working until 70 doesn't necessarily mean that you have work in a high powered finance job, or as a flashy sales person, etc. In fact, in your 60's you may have to take a significant p...
by clacy
Thu Sep 06, 2012 9:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70 is the New 65
Replies: 67
Views: 5773

Re: 70 is the New 65

Americans working longer because they are living longer and healthier longer is a good thing. I don't see how this could be considered otherwise. Retirement is fine and all, but it stands to reason that if we live longer, we'll have to work longer as well. That is simple economics and a trade off th...
by clacy
Thu Sep 06, 2012 11:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70 is the New 65
Replies: 67
Views: 5773

Re: gold, what if scenario

Hmmmm, scared of an unexpected gold find on another planet? I guess I'm more afraid of central banks around the world continuing to pursue a currency devaluation strategy in an effort to maintain social programs that don't seem to be economically feasible without inflating. I'm betting on my gold po...
by clacy
Sun Sep 02, 2012 11:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: gold, what if scenario
Replies: 126
Views: 6127

Re: Possible mid-life crisis - please help

Based on your last post, I would recommend quitting ASAP, or at least as soon as you get your $100k. Start a family. Raise your kids, while your wife works, and go back to school while you're a stay at home dad. Think long and hard about professions that you can do without a lot of interaction with ...
by clacy
Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Possible mid-life crisis - please help
Replies: 94
Views: 11401

Re: Possible mid-life crisis - please help

What a great problem to have? There are millions that think the very same thing about their job (hate it, stressful, anxiety, etc), but they aren't in nearly as good of a financial position. Imagine if you had a stay at home wife and 6 minor children.... I say retire. You can downsize your home, min...
by clacy
Sun Aug 26, 2012 11:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Possible mid-life crisis - please help
Replies: 94
Views: 11401

Re: Jeremy Seigel right or wrong on stocks/Gross

At least we'll know who was right 20 years from now :happy
by clacy
Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Seigel right or wrong on stocks/Gross
Replies: 6
Views: 1023

Re: Jeremy Grantham July Letter

30 years ago my grandmother fell under the spell of a succession of newsletter writers, each more pessimistic/paranoid than the last. It drove my father bonkers back then. For the past decade my father has done the same thing. In the event that there is a dominant gene at play here, I'm going to ma...
by clacy
Tue Aug 07, 2012 1:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham July Letter
Replies: 4
Views: 851

Re: Jeremy Grantham July Letter

If anybody read Welcome to Dystopia! Entering a long-term and politically dangerous food crisis Jeremy Grantham recommends for those with a 10 year time horizon allocating 15 of their portfolio in forestry and farms, 10% in "stuff in the ground" and 5% in resource efficiency plays. Can an...
by clacy
Tue Aug 07, 2012 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham July Letter
Replies: 4
Views: 851

Re: You just WON the lottery [investing hypothetical]

I would give 15% off the top to church/charities. I would probably give 25% to my parents, siblings, (wife's too) I would take 40% to set up in a trust for my kids That would leave 20% for my wife and I. I would earmark a couple million to blow on cars, homes, trips, etc The rest would be invested i...
by clacy
Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You just WON the lottery [investing hypothetical]
Replies: 20
Views: 2071

Re: Worst ETF ever?

FAZ and FAS are 3x leveraged products and they track the financial services index, not the S&P, fyi....

You're point remains however, that they are not for long term trading for most investors.
by clacy
Mon Jul 23, 2012 9:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worst ETF ever?
Replies: 7
Views: 1191

Re: Is it time to pile into U.S. treasuries?

Is it time to pile into U.S. treasuries? Since you asked: the answer is No No NO. Do not buy treasuries. Here are the forecasts of the "experts" at the 2012 Bespoke Roundtable. With everyone on one side of the bond trade, I'm thinking there's no way for them to go but up! Buy with both ha...
by clacy
Sat Jul 07, 2012 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to pile into U.S. treasuries?
Replies: 45
Views: 7965

Re: Employment woes and midlife crisis

Your best bet is clearly to continue working through this season and then scrambling like crazy to find another career in the off season. You're going to be unemployed anyways in a few months so there's no reason to be unemployed voluntarily right now. The biggest question you have to figure out is ...
by clacy
Sun Jun 17, 2012 2:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Employment woes and midlife crisis
Replies: 39
Views: 4491

Re: Dave Ramsey comes to the Bogle side

Overall, DR provides a very valuable service to the public. The vast majority of people would be well served by listening to his main argument, that they should stay out of debt and live below their means. With that said, on the investment side, he leaves a little to be desired. Quoting 12%pa return...
by clacy
Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey comes to the Bogle side
Replies: 26
Views: 3606

Re: PRPFX Permanent Portfolio

A similar ETF (symbol PERM) just came out. Volume is a little low as it is so new, but the fees are lower and the ETF is true to Harry Browne's latest version of the Permanent Portfolio, which is: 25% Gold 25% Long Term Treasuries 25% Cash 25% US Stocks PRPFX is very similar, but holds a little less...
by clacy
Tue Feb 28, 2012 7:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: PRPFX Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 2
Views: 356
Next

Return to advanced search