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I love it when someone besides me brings up the topic of "Personal Inflation Rate," because I am tempted to bring it up every other day on this forum to stress its importance, but then I would become a nuisance. As a financial advisor who sits down with several clients a day, day after day...

In today's section (yesterday on east coast) the Wall Street Journal ran two different articles in the same C section on the demise of a 60/40 Coffeehouse-type portfolio. "New Recipe For Returns In Risk Era" http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323551004578438410252327372.html?KEY...

Great idea. Can anyone play jazz piano?

Looking forward to connecting at 6 and meeting everyone.

Bill

That sounds like a great idea. I'd love to hear Bill.

Let's find a coffeehouse nearby and connect an hour/90 minutes before the reading?

Let me know if you are interested, see how many might attend.

Bill

Trying to hedge equity risk with commodities sure sounds good, it just doesn't work good. The correlation argument for commodities is week and unreliable. How soon people forget that commodity funds crashed harder than stock funds during the depths of the financial crisis. That's not portfolio insu...

. . . weight a portfolio heavily toward TIPS, as suggested (implied?) by James Stewart, in his NYT column today titled 'Conceived By Students, a Portfolio That Pays" or avoid TIPS, as suggested by Brett Arends in his WSJ column today titled, "Looking for Inflation Protection? Take TIPS Off...

Taylor Larimore wrote:Very few people know more about ETFs than Boglehead, Rick Ferri, who wrote The ETF Book. These are "Investment Gems" from his book:

On top of that, Rick could not be more generous with his time in sharing his knowledge of ETFs with investors and advisors alike. Thanks Rick!

Today the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index, reporting an increase of 1.7% for 2012. For me, that number is largely irrelevant. The big question is, how much did my personal CPI increase? It boils down to the choices I make in my everyday life and how I spend my money...

Thanks Brad, and all the best to you in 2013.

Go Coffeehouse!

Bill

While S&P scorecard details the difficulty of active management to best a benchmark, IMO that is not the compelling reason to build a passive (indexing) portfolio. What matters most of all is that an indexed portfolio allows you to stay the course with confidence. The big issue for investors, co...

Note that not one person has mentioned getting 3% cash back rather than 2% cash back or having an asset allocation of 65% stocks rather 60% stocks or having an online account paying 1.0% rather than one paying 0.75% or having a mortgage at 3.25% rather than 3.40% or any of the myriad of other items...

Back in 1999, in the midst of one of the greatest bull markets in the history of the stock market, I encouraged investors to turn away from the market and focus on three simple principles that they already knew to be true, likely shared with them by a parent, grandparent, wise friend. . . 1. Don't p...

http://seattletimes.com/html/businesste ... eoxml.html

Good interview with Bill McNabb in today's paper. My apologies if it has already been posted.

I like the way Vanguard focuses on "the little guy."

Bill

That is a great point Rick, one that is frequently overlooked by the folks who are proponents of actively managed funds, especially brokers and financial advisors.

Nice feature in Zweig's WSJ article today! Way to go. . .

Bill

Thanks Taylor. Great points on benefits of indexing, and I'm with you. Even if over 50% of actively managed funds outperformed a benchmark, it wouldn't change my approach either. By owning a benchmark, I put the pursuit of performance in perspective, which allows me to focus 100% of my attention on ...

Let's say, for the sake of discussion, that actively managed, large blend mutual funds consistently outperformed the S&P 500 index. Let's assume, for instance, on 1, 3, 5 and 10 year periods, 52% of actively managed funds consistently beat the benchmark, and collectively, the funds that beat the...

The folks who are reading and posting in this discussion have been in the indexing church for many, many years. Rick Ferri Rick, while I agreet with you that posters on this thread might have a grasp on this topic, and understand that, while interesting, isn't all that important, I can't agree with...

Maybe there should be a way to categorize posts based on who they are for; beginner, intermediate, advanced, and PhD level. This would be a PhD conversation. Rick Ferri In making my original post, I am not critical of discussing this as a topic, and in fact I find this stuff interesting myself. I h...

PS. Bill, many people on this forum are interested in furthering their education and understanding, even "sophisticated" investors. I agree with you Rick, this stuff can be interesting, and as I mentioned in my post, this is a good place to discuss it. I also appreciate your comment that ...

(To the new investors: This is an advanced investing topic and can be safely ignored.) Thanks for including this statement LadyGeek. I would only add that, in my opinion it can be ingored not only by new investors, but by investors who are successful investors, have been around the block a few time...

Cut-Throat wrote:
You mean like the post I started awhile ago? --- http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=98807&hilit=+inflation

yeah, like that one!

1.) Plan Inflation Rate - I am currently using 3% 2.) Rate of Investment Return - I am currently using 4% Those are reasonable numbers, but keep in mind that a plan's inflation rate is not some arbitrary number cooked up by gov't statistics, it is the rate at which YOUR cost of living, or burn rate...

existential coolness (I hear he climbed the west face of K2 last weekend), Wow, I wish my wife, mom, clients, dog etc., etc., thought I was existentially cool - though I don't really know what that means. And I heard the same K2 rumor, but alas, not true. I was simply scaling a ladder on my chimney...

A lot of time is spent worrying about basis point differences in expose ratios and not percentage point differences due to bad behavior. JL, A great reflection - people can quibble all they want about whether the DALBAR research is meaningful and representative, but in my humble opinion based on my...

Every once in a while someone makes a post on this forum that is simply over-the-top outstanding. The OP is one such post. I suggest we frame it and hang it on the Boglehead forum introductory page for everyone to read. The author eloquently put down in words what many of us think when we read the m...

Here is my formula for a startup. . . 1. Have a great idea. 2. Be obsessed about it. 3. Work 18 hour days (seriously). 4. Risk your own money, not VC - increases your chance of success because intuitively you will work harder. 5. Go through a period called "startup" where you aren't making...

14,000 ft on Denali. Away from "everything"

Backstreets of Rome.

San Juan islands

Does anyone have suggestions on simple word processor that is password protected?

Thanks!

fallible. . . I am heading out on the road shortly for a few days, but will respond to this next Tuesday and Wednesday. I have some thoughts and suggestions that have worked for me over the years, and would enjoy brainstorming with you. We all need to be BOLD! In regards to others' comments re. adve...

As for boldness, I agree we Bogleheads need to at least try to be as bold as Jack Bogle in spreading the message, but it's quite a challenge and not always easy to know just how to effectively do that. Thanks for your important post. Could you elaborate on "but it's quite a challenge and not a...

[response to removed OT comment deleted by admin alex] Nisi, very clever - I missed that thread on Thursday - and I am sure the Mary Rose is oversubscribed. Lost out again, story of my life. If it reopens, I'm first in line. Sadly, the way the industry has turned index funds upside down, I'm sure t...

We are all adults around here . I agree. Nobody who reads this board will fall for this stuff. Unfortunately, 99% :) (IMO) of investors don't read this board. I would suggest that there is a small difference between a Nigerian e mail and slick advertising from the Wall Street crowd. :D I am amazed ...

Interesting article, to say the least. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/01/opinion/risky-and-getting-riskier-for-investors.html?_r=1&hp With returns on fixed income investments so low, and a stock market that produces very erratic short term returns, it is no surprise that more and more investors ...

Thanks Rick, looks like your predictions are about in line with Larry Swedroe's predictions and Jack Bogle's predictions. 1 to 3 percent on bonds and 5 to 7 percent on stocks, or somewhere in that neighborhood. Those are the same predictions we are using out here in Seattle. And while you "gott...

Thanks Larry, I understand you are not "predicting" any number, but offering an "expectation" of real returns of 6% for planning purposes. Discussing this might be interesting, but let's keep in mind it has big implications for people's planning and lives. Regardless of whether o...

To clarify . . . (I might have missed it in this thread) Larry is suggesting "real" returns of 6%. ? I am pretty sure Jack Bogle's suggestion is "nominal" returns of 7%. Big difference here, for planning purposes. After all, isn't that the only reason we are discussing this stuff...

Thanks for the comments, I appreciate it - always a little nervous about promoting on this board the many benefits of a career as an advisor, but you are right, staythecourse, it can be a wonderful career. Every day I wake up and think I am the luckiest person in the world to be in my career. In my ...

staythecourse, thanks so much for bringing that to the attention of this board. I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiments, that the "savings" issue isn't given the importance that it deserves on this forum. Another overwhelmingly important issue that is rarely discussed here is one's per...

I would like to respond to the comments of mlipps and K*ya who expressed interest in becoming an investment advisor. I am sure there are lots of other folks on this forum who are contemplating the same. I get about 3-5 inquiries a month at the Coffeehouse from folks across the nation who contact me,...

Many states index most, if not all of their stock market investments. It would never qualify for authentic data, but when I wrote The Coffeehouse Investor I called many state pension fund directors to inquire, and found that a large number indexed most assets, including state of WA, who indexed the ...

Don't go on any "cruises around the sound." Take a ferry to Bainbridge Island, 30 minutes, walk off, go get some ice cream, and take the next ferry back. Cheap and gorgeous veiws of Seattle. Space Needle, but maybe a little pricey. I haven't been on new ferris wheel, but it looks cool. Pik...

mlipps,

I am tied up for most of the day, but will respond to your post later this evening, and share some comments and thoughts regarding the next steps for you.

Bill

K8ya, Every industry has its bad apples, in part caused by a flawed compensation structure in certain arenas that encourage advsisors & stockbrokers to make decisions that are in their own best interest, not their clients. But that does not mean that the entire advisory profession is inherently ...

Hi K8ya, I commend you for putting forth the effort to help people with financial planning issues. Although there are many "bad" investment advisors and financial planners out there, it doesn't mean that you shouldn't pursue this as a service to your people. It only means that there is an ...

I read somewhere today, I think Investment News, that American Funds is now offering shares through RIA channel at NAV with no 12.b-1 fee, so OP is probably correct. Pretty good deal in my opinion. I think Jared Kizer, awhile back, ran American Funds like ICA through 3Factor machine and pretty much ...

For What It's Worth. . .

Has anyone pointed out that the cost of waiting has been extremely costly for investors the past five years?

Like extremely expensive?

I know it's water under the bridge at this point, but I guess I will be the one to point that out.

Bill

Dear Cut-Throat You have just written the post that I have been meaning to write for the past six months or longer, and have expressed a viewpoint much better than I could have. My thanks to you. I think what you are saying is "I keep my costs under control." Price increases on some things...

You need to stay on top of your investments 24x7 and you need vital new information every month to help you do smart decision-making. If you don't monitor the situation, your fund manager might lose the fire in his belly and you wouldn't even suspect it. Just one favorable decision and your subscri...

I had already been trending towards it, but the fact that for a very significant part of one's life, savings rate is far more important than return. I mean, I knew that intuitively, but more and more it becomes clear that it is for a long time. A lot longer than most think. And even when the portfo...

Tilting can also add diversification. You want to have sufficient exposure to all equity asset classes (market, value and small) to guard against periods of underperformance. JG, you sum up nicely a significant reason to tilt. The period 1995 to 1999, and then 2000 to 2010 is a prime example of per...