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Re: In theory, market timing = index investing

So market timing equals EV? That's a strange and undefendable conclusion. But to some extent, indexing is a way to reduce variance through diversification. Even if your EV is the same, variance is not. Even if it were right, ignoring the benefits of diversification, taking out the mistakes that huma...
by bottlecap
Mon Sep 29, 2014 5:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In theory, market timing = index investing
Replies: 10
Views: 625

Re: How Long Should I Keep My Car?

I'd say 10 years or 120,000 miles is a good benchmark to reassess on average. Obviously earlier if you have major problems earlier. Earlier if you have more than a normal fear of breaking down. Earlier if you know absolutely nothing about cars and don't care to know. Earlier if you don't maintain yo...
by bottlecap
Mon Sep 29, 2014 9:37 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Long Should I Keep My Car?
Replies: 41
Views: 2820

Re: Lawyer fee question?

epitomist wrote:
kenner wrote:So, with your vast knowledge of how all defense lawyers operate in an unethical manner with regard to billing, you must be a defense lawyer - or you just get sued A LOT.

Just once. That's enough for a lifetime.


With a sample size of one, I'm going with "user error".

JT
by bottlecap
Mon Sep 29, 2014 9:13 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lawyer fee question?
Replies: 32
Views: 2096

Re: Buy Local

Who was paying the lamp guy for the 25 years you spent not needing him? :wink: Small and less efficent businesses certainly generate a certain amount of nostalgia, but the bottom line anymore is that 95% of the time nowadays, consumers don't need the special assistance and folks need to be paid duri...
by bottlecap
Mon Sep 29, 2014 9:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buy Local
Replies: 27
Views: 1842

Re: Lawyer fee question?

I am not one to "stiff" another professional and if I had a fee arrangement contract that addressed this I would not be asking on here. :D I just wanted to know if it is normal practice to be billing for doing a preliminary injunction same time as handling the settlement after the date I ...
by bottlecap
Mon Sep 29, 2014 12:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lawyer fee question?
Replies: 32
Views: 2096

Re: Lawyer fee question?

Just talk to the lawyer. If you instructed him not to prepare anything during settlement talks and he agreed, then he should possibly write down the bill. If that was not your instruction, then a small amount of time after that probably isn't much concern. A large amount of time would certainly be s...
by bottlecap
Sun Sep 28, 2014 10:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lawyer fee question?
Replies: 32
Views: 2096

Re: Lawyer fee question?

Hard to tell from your post, which is a little confusing. If you had a signed settlement on date x and your lawyer worked on responses after date x, i would ask the lawyer about it. You are perfectly within your rights to question the bill. The lawyer should, and probably will, provide a reasonable ...
by bottlecap
Sun Sep 28, 2014 7:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lawyer fee question?
Replies: 32
Views: 2096

Re: How Long Should I Keep My Car?

Maintain your car and it's age won't be much of a problem. It is extremely rare for a car of any sort to simply break down and leave you stranded. It has only happened to me once and I got a good bit of warning, but couldn't do much because I was on the last leg of a long trip. I've never broken dow...
by bottlecap
Sun Sep 28, 2014 6:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Long Should I Keep My Car?
Replies: 41
Views: 2820

Re: Could one theoretically be 100% stocks your whole life?

No, one could not theoretically be in 100% stocks their entire life. They could do this actually, but not theoretically.

JT
by bottlecap
Tue Sep 23, 2014 7:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could one theoretically be 100% stocks your whole life?
Replies: 43
Views: 2751

Re: how to prevent medical expense catastrophe?

BUT if we are going to talk about outrageous fees, we need to include everyone. If this surgery went bad, the attorney would have been paid $117,000 and nobody would blink at it. Thankfully, in most states, you can represent yourself if you want to quit your job and spend five years handling the ca...
by bottlecap
Mon Sep 22, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how to prevent medical expense catastrophe?
Replies: 174
Views: 7536

Re: Term Care 80 Northwestern Mutual - What to do for Life I

Hi JT, Do you know about how artificially low the rates the term4sale? It's not much. I found that when you called the agents, most did not actually sell the top two or three best priced policies, despite the fact the site said they did. The agents seemed not to want to deal with those companies, p...
by bottlecap
Sat Sep 20, 2014 11:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Term Care 80 Northwestern Mutual - What to do for Life Ins.
Replies: 15
Views: 968

Re: When to throw out childhood toys? Encourage me please.

Donate it. My wife's Mom never threw anything out and our 3 year old has a ball every time she stays with grandma and the Eighties toys come out.

JT
by bottlecap
Sat Sep 20, 2014 11:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When to throw out childhood toys? Encourage me please.
Replies: 34
Views: 2393

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

A straw-man argument is where you misstate the opposite viewpoint in order to make it easier to refute. Well, that's just what you've done, even if you don't realize it. You not only have the Boglehead point of view incorrect, but you have boiled it down to one point of view that is rarely so unequ...
by bottlecap
Sat Sep 20, 2014 3:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 109
Views: 7633

Re: Term Care 80 Northwestern Mutual - What to do for Life I

I agree the NML policy appears expensive, but do realize that the term4life website gives you some artifically low rates as well. You likely won't get the best rates shown - some of the agents won't even try for them.

JT
by bottlecap
Sat Sep 20, 2014 1:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Term Care 80 Northwestern Mutual - What to do for Life Ins.
Replies: 15
Views: 968

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

I would suggest to those of you who hold to an unfalsifiable theory that you at least understand that yours is a faith commitment, not a scientifically valid one. You've set up quite the strawman in the attempt to appear correct. The problem is that even if you are right, it is meaningless. You hav...
by bottlecap
Sat Sep 20, 2014 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 109
Views: 7633

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

The signal you wait for is when investing becomes easy and lucrative, but no one else knows the secret so only you can exploit it. Then be assured you should jump ship.

Until this happens, seeking alpha will be difficult, costly and fleeting.

JT
by bottlecap
Sat Sep 20, 2014 1:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 109
Views: 7633

Re: Should you care about risk-adjusted returns?

I guess the moral of the story (or as much of a story as you can have over one time period) is that if you can afford to, or must, take more risk, choose to take more risk in the hopes of a higher return. Who'da thunk? To me, the importance of risk adjusted returns is to compare the performance of t...
by bottlecap
Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you care about risk-adjusted returns?
Replies: 13
Views: 802

Re: Anyone use Legal Zoom for LivingTrust?

hoops777 wrote:Ok...on to Legal Zoom....Anyone have any thoughts for a pretty simple living trust?One house,basic investment accounts and everything going to 2 kids,50/50.


You'll never know for sure. When it matters, you'll be dead.

JT
by bottlecap
Tue Sep 02, 2014 2:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone use Legal Zoom for LivingTrust?
Replies: 75
Views: 4956

Re: Probability question

"Odds" are expressed as a ratio. The odds in this case are 11 to 1 against each year - so I guess 143 to 1 against for two years?

JT
by bottlecap
Sun Aug 31, 2014 10:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Probability question
Replies: 14
Views: 1148

Re: Debating whether to keep current vehicle or purchase ano

If you want a new car, then go ahead. If you want to wait, it sounds like this car will run a while. Just keep it maintained.

Good luck,

JT
by bottlecap
Fri Aug 29, 2014 7:48 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Debating whether to keep current vehicle or purchase another
Replies: 44
Views: 2407

Re: Gas station etiquette

I think Driver A sounds like a jerk. If he gave me a hard time, I would have asked him if he could navigate his car around mine and out to the exit. If he said, "Yes," then the nicest possible thing I could have managed to him would be, "Well, why don't you do just that." If the ...
by bottlecap
Thu Aug 28, 2014 5:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gas station etiquette
Replies: 46
Views: 2963

Re: My husband's " WILL", $ left for me to live on....

I would see a lawyer immediately. If this fella wants you to live at the poverty level after he's gone, you should make him "gone" a little sooner by divorcing him. Talk to the lawyer about your rights of inheritance and the validity of the prenup. Get this squared away now, otherwise your...
by bottlecap
Thu Aug 28, 2014 3:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My husband's " WILL", $ left for me to live on....
Replies: 258
Views: 17410

Re: Should I fix a "totaled" car

This is a question only you and your mechanic can answer. I would be concerned about frame damage, but not having seen it first hand, it's hard for me to opine. I bought my vehicle back from the insurance company and fixed it after speaking with the guy who inspected it for the insurance company, th...
by bottlecap
Mon Aug 25, 2014 3:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I fix a "totaled" car
Replies: 38
Views: 2849

Re: What 5 stocks can I own forever?

You should learn how to invest. This is a great place to learn.

Good luck,

JT
by bottlecap
Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What 5 stocks can I own forever?
Replies: 58
Views: 4583

Re: What to consider while purchasing an existing business?

The fact that this woman is crazy and wants you to trust her is another reason to have a lawyer. The lawyer will do the negotiation and won't be susceptible to emotional ploys like that. You basically can't trust an addict anyway.

JT
by bottlecap
Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to consider while purchasing an existing business?
Replies: 50
Views: 3945

Re: Kitces - Think Twice about those Conversions

As always, diversify your investments to account for future uncertainty. However, at a time when states are lessening the tax burden on senoirs, even in poor fiscal times, I doubt that politicians on the federal level will go up against the AARP and the one group of Americans most likely to vote. Co...
by bottlecap
Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kitces - Think Twice about those Conversions
Replies: 15
Views: 2999

Re: Sport of Fencing question

Try the coach or visit some local clubs. Try http://www.usfencing.org for more information, if you haven't already. The answer to your question largely depends on where you live. Although fencing has become much more competitive in the U.S. over the last 15 to 20 years, there are likely still some l...
by bottlecap
Wed Aug 20, 2014 5:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sport of Fencing question
Replies: 5
Views: 537

Re: [live off dividends?] How the rich stay/get richer??

Huh, in real life, my observation has been that the harder the job, the less well compensated it is. I now make ten times what I made working in a factory when I was in college, for sitting on my ass all day reading environmental engineering reports. It is *not* harder work, it's easier. I grew up ...
by bottlecap
Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [live off dividends?] How the rich stay/get richer??
Replies: 62
Views: 5006

Re: [live off dividends?] How the rich stay/get richer??

The rich are not rich because of dividends. It's because they work harder and are willing to take more risks than others. Perhaps a little luck helps, but it would be an anomaly for someone to make $2 million dollars one year and then drop everything to sit back and collect dividends. JT Having the...
by bottlecap
Wed Aug 20, 2014 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [live off dividends?] How the rich stay/get richer??
Replies: 62
Views: 5006

Re: [live off dividends?] How the rich stay/get richer??

The rich are not rich because of dividends. It's because they work harder and are willing to take more risks than others. Perhaps a little luck helps, but it would be an anomaly for someone to make $2 million dollars one year and then drop everything to sit back and collect dividends.

JT
by bottlecap
Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [live off dividends?] How the rich stay/get richer??
Replies: 62
Views: 5006

Re: Bad(?) advice given about Target Date Retirement funds

I think the problem is that it's not a big deal. Pick a TD fund. Three years from now, reassess, and pick another. What's the problem? If they are the type of investor that won't reassess, then the TD's glidepath is going to be far better than anything they will do on their own.

JT
by bottlecap
Mon Aug 18, 2014 9:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad(?) advice given about Target Date Retirement funds
Replies: 103
Views: 6510

Re: Market Timing?

Market timing is used or overused as a naughty word. You could say that staying the course is market timing because you are predicting that the market will recover or progress based on past performance. That is silly. How is assuming the market will rise over time "market timing?" We all ...
by bottlecap
Sat Aug 16, 2014 10:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing?
Replies: 20
Views: 1253

Re: Market Timing?

Neither Templeton or Buffett are saying to stay in the market when sentiment is high or low. They're saying to actually BUY or SELL. (Or, in the case of Buffett, he's implying that.) That's market timing in my book. I think you're being far too literal here. How else do you reconcile Buffett's othe...
by bottlecap
Sat Aug 16, 2014 9:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing?
Replies: 20
Views: 1253

Re: Teaching teen to drive

I'd have him take the class. He wants to do it, so he might actually get something out of it. Check to see if his taking that class (as opposed to another class) might reduce your insurance rates, as well. I had two drivers ed courses. One was with a thirty-something instructor in a Camaro. I may ha...
by bottlecap
Fri Aug 15, 2014 10:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Teaching teen to drive
Replies: 31
Views: 1446

Re: Retirement portfolio for a novice

I think you are doing the right thing except I would add 20% bonds. I will say that I didn't have bonds when I was your age, either, but I should have. It adds a level of stability to the portfolio and gives you something to rebalance with. Will it give you a greater return than staying with 100% eq...
by bottlecap
Fri Aug 15, 2014 9:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement portfolio for a novice
Replies: 1
Views: 342

Re: Market Timing?

No. I consider those statements that are likely to be true, but only in retrospect do we know times of "maximum pessimism" and "maximum optimism." So acting on your gut feeling that we are in one of those times would be market timing, but those statements themselves are not. Thos...
by bottlecap
Fri Aug 15, 2014 9:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing?
Replies: 20
Views: 1253

Re: Wills, Spouses, Prenups, etc.

If she's concerned and her husband will not talk about it, she should get a job and a lawyer. The questions you are asking are specific to state law and this is not a legal forum. The non-tax, non-ERISA legal advice you get here will range from great to horrible, but you, and more importantly, she, ...
by bottlecap
Tue Aug 12, 2014 7:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wills, Spouses, Prenups, etc.
Replies: 67
Views: 3813

Re: Chosing which company to analyze?

If you invest in what you know, you are still likely to do poorly. There are too many unknowables, even for those that think they are in the know.

Disavow yourself of this notion or get ready for probable losses.

JT
by bottlecap
Mon Aug 11, 2014 11:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chosing which company to analyze?
Replies: 25
Views: 1239

Re: Minivan time! Opinions on 2013 Town & Country, Please

Realistically, you can assume it will have a similar reliability as the previous few years. Has there been a redesign to suggest otherwise? In any event, the problems on a 2013 aren't likely to have cropped up this early in its lifespan.

JT
by bottlecap
Mon Aug 11, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Minivan time! Opinions on 2013 Town & Country, Please
Replies: 23
Views: 2028

Re: Moving Average Backtest destroys Buy/Hold. Try for yours

1. I don't have time to implement this strategy. If you happen to miss one or two buying points, I bet the results change dramatically. 2. Fifteen years is not only a short period; it is a sample period of one. 3. I don't have the patience to converse with someone who did not have a proper upbringin...
by bottlecap
Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moving Average Backtest destroys Buy/Hold. Try for yourself.
Replies: 59
Views: 4469

Re: What do you think? Medical Coverage Cost / Coercion ?

I'm scratching my head here. Coercion in healthcare? Nah, that's just crazy...

JT
by bottlecap
Thu Aug 07, 2014 11:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you think? Medical Coverage Cost / Coercion ?
Replies: 38
Views: 1784

Re: New vehicle...GMC Acadia, Chevy Traverse, or Buick Encla

Boy, Killjoy. You are really trying to earn that name, huh? The only foreign car that I've owned was a Toyota essentially handed down to me, and quite frankly it would not die and needed no maintenance (other than a half quart of oil every 2,500 miles). Someone ran a red light and killed it, but I p...
by bottlecap
Wed Aug 06, 2014 3:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New vehicle...GMC Acadia, Chevy Traverse, or Buick Enclave?
Replies: 112
Views: 9909

Re: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerd

I have traditionally liked what Dave Ramsey has to say. On this issue he is lost, as evidenced by his name-calling. While I understand that he wants people to invest, overstating what their returns will be or recklessly spouting off good numbers has a name. It is called lying or, at the least, reckl...
by bottlecap
Tue Aug 05, 2014 10:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey still defending 12% and still angry at "nerds"
Replies: 194
Views: 22848

Re: SUV tires

Another vote for the Michelin LTX M/S 2. Liked them so much, I put them on the second SUV.

JT
by bottlecap
Mon Aug 04, 2014 12:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: SUV tires
Replies: 17
Views: 1676

Re: How Much Did You Lose Today?

I don't know, but I could guess if I wanted to think it through.

JT
by bottlecap
Fri Aug 01, 2014 11:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Much Did You Lose Today?
Replies: 166
Views: 15043

Re: How to handle a company that won't honor a warranty?

This is too funny. They have a 5 year warranty - presumably only on manufacturing defects - but will deny all warranty claims beyond, what, a year, because manufacturing defects should only show up within that time? Why do they offer a 5 year warranty if that's the case? Your state likely has consum...
by bottlecap
Tue Jul 29, 2014 9:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to handle a company that won't honor a warranty?
Replies: 23
Views: 1507

Re: Taking out mortgage with zero down. Smart or no?

To me, there are several benefits to using a down payment. First, it forces you to live below your means and learn how hard it can be to save money - appreciate the value of a dollar. Second, it prevents you from moving too quickly, both before you are ready and know what you want to buy and before ...
by bottlecap
Mon Jul 28, 2014 9:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taking out mortgage with zero down. Smart or no?
Replies: 64
Views: 3280

Re: Why should stocks go up over the long term?

People save, lend and otherwise risk their money on profit-seeking ventures. When done wisely, production - what we call the "economy," grows. Businesses make up the productive capacity of the country (and world). So, unless you think saving will cease, or that businesses will invest that ...
by bottlecap
Mon Jul 28, 2014 8:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks go up over the long term?
Replies: 34
Views: 2916

Re: Kitchen Remodel... Or Not?

My initial thought was go for it - enjoy it, but a $70k kitchen remodel on a $250,000 home took me aback. If having a spectatular kitchen is worth it to you, I guess that's okay, but know that if you sold the place afterwards, you probably wouldn't get a third of that back.

JT
by bottlecap
Mon Jul 28, 2014 9:33 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kitchen Remodel... Or Not?
Replies: 53
Views: 2953

Re: Vanguard sued for charging too little

[(removed) --admin LadyGeek] New York lawyer (and his lawyers) tries to make money off of Vanguard's shareholders. Shocker. The complaint is an interesting read, if but to help understand how Vanguard's structure is set up: http://taxprof.typepad.com/files/vanguard-complaint.pdf I haven't gotten to...
by bottlecap
Sun Jul 27, 2014 1:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard sued for charging too little
Replies: 187
Views: 21594
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