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Re: Using Ayres/Nalebuff leveraged strategy (Lifecycle Inv.)

One option might be to leverage Vanguard mutual funds rather than the ETFs. Since the pricing is done at the end of the day, flash crashes won't be an issue. I thought of this too. Unfortunately, you can't leverage mutual funds. Will look into what you're saying with ETNs, although if you mean that...
by boggler
Sun May 12, 2013 3:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using Ayres/Nalebuff leveraged strategy (Lifecycle Inv.)
Replies: 30
Views: 1592

Does Vanguard allow business accounts / checking?

I'm looking to set up a new business and would like to use Vanguard for as many financial services as possible. In particular, I'm hoping to keep assets in a short-term bond fund, and would like to use the VanguardAdvantage feature to operate like a checking account. Do you know if this is allowed? ...
by boggler
Sun May 12, 2013 3:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does Vanguard allow business accounts / checking?
Replies: 2
Views: 274

Re: Using Ayres/Nalebuff leveraged strategy (Lifecycle Inv.)

I am just commenting to point out how similar the two user names are. Ha. :) Not the same person, not a deliberate similarity. Was the first username that came to mind when signing up for a new account. I'm looking for some insights on the strategy that I didn't get out of the first thread, and I'm...
by boggler
Sat May 11, 2013 7:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using Ayres/Nalebuff leveraged strategy (Lifecycle Inv.)
Replies: 30
Views: 1592

Re: ETF premium - should I sell and switch?

I'd wait until the premium was up to at least 0.50% before I did this. That way, I would make more than $300. Why wait? He can make his $300 today and if the premium is still higher than the spread he can do it again tomorrow. I'd guess that Vanguard would frown on this practice, but I can't see an...
by boggler
Fri May 10, 2013 6:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF premium - should I sell and switch?
Replies: 4
Views: 315

ETF premium - should I sell and switch?

The ETF premium on VT right now is $0.24. I bought around $150k of it on Wednesday before I saw the premium existed. If I sell it to undo the ETF purchase right before the market close and immediately purchase the mutual fund, I can then do an ETF conversion, which amounts to a $360 decrease in my c...
by boggler
Fri May 10, 2013 3:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF premium - should I sell and switch?
Replies: 4
Views: 315

Re: Don't want to TLH. Is this a bad idea?

Does anyone have a good sense of how much they've saved in "tax alpha" from doing this?
by boggler
Fri May 10, 2013 10:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Don't want to TLH. Is this a bad idea? [Tax Loss Harvest]
Replies: 38
Views: 1953

Re: Foreign Vanguard ETF conversion- Premium is disturbing

So it seems like if you're planning to buy a Vanguard ETF with a premium (which many have), you'd be better off buying the mutual fund and converting, right?
by boggler
Fri May 10, 2013 10:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign Vanguard ETF conversion- Premium is disturbing
Replies: 8
Views: 893

Foreign Vanguard ETF conversion- Premium is disturbing

I'm planning to buy some of the Vanguard Total World Stock Index fund. I'd like to own the ETF since it has a much lower expense ratio. I have two options: 1 - Buy the ETF directly. (VT) 2 - Buy the mutual fund (VTWSX) and immediate ask Vanguard to do the conversion to the ETF. Vanguard's site state...
by boggler
Thu May 09, 2013 8:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign Vanguard ETF conversion- Premium is disturbing
Replies: 8
Views: 893

Re: "Less volatility = more wealth, all else being equal"

http://www.lancasterpollard.com/Uploads/Images/newsletters/Efficient-Frontier-Bigger.jpg Keith, This is all based on backtested data, right? How do we know this will hold in the future? Those charts are just the canonical form of the efficient frontier. If you calculate the EF over different period...
by boggler
Thu May 09, 2013 12:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Less volatility = more wealth, all else being equal"
Replies: 49
Views: 2390

Re: "Less volatility = more wealth, all else being equal"

Keith,
This is all based on backtested data, right? How do we know this will hold in the future?
by boggler
Thu May 09, 2013 12:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Less volatility = more wealth, all else being equal"
Replies: 49
Views: 2390

Re: What firms allow securities-backed lending via Vanguard?

This is by no means a deadbeat move, as some in this thread are suggesting. I have helped very conservative clients with ten-figure (yes, in USD) net worths arrange lines of credit with pledged blue-chip stocks. The bank simply takes a pledge (lien) over the securities, including the ability to dir...
by boggler
Thu May 09, 2013 1:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What firms allow securities-backed lending via Vanguard?
Replies: 22
Views: 791

Should I tilt small-value? EM? How?

The equity side of my portfolio is currently 100% VT. I love the simplicity of this... no rebalancing, unbelievably tax-efficient, hands-off, etc. Yet I still have some cash on hand to invest, and I keep hearing about the small-value tilt and am trying to decide whether it makes sense for me. Here a...
by boggler
Thu May 09, 2013 12:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I tilt small-value? EM? How?
Replies: 10
Views: 1022

Re: What firms allow securities-backed lending via Vanguard?

Selling bonds would make a lot of sense, but unfortunately all my bonds are in my tax-advantaged accounts so I can't easily do this...
by boggler
Wed May 08, 2013 11:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What firms allow securities-backed lending via Vanguard?
Replies: 22
Views: 791

Re: Told myself I'd invest tomorrow...

InvestorNewb wrote:He should stick with his original plan of VT.

Boggler reminds me of me when I first started posting here; lots of questions, very indecisive, all over the place, afraid to take action. It's all part of the journey.


Bought some VT this morning. :)
by boggler
Wed May 08, 2013 4:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Told myself I'd invest tomorrow...
Replies: 35
Views: 3271

Re: "Less volatility = more wealth, all else being equal"

I don't really understand this effect. Could you explain it? Ideally, wouldn't we hold lots of funds rather than just a handful to maximize this effect? Try this explanation ... You are up 20% one year down 25% the next. Average growth of 2.5 (5/2) $100 grows to $125 then loses one fifth its value ...
by boggler
Wed May 08, 2013 4:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Less volatility = more wealth, all else being equal"
Replies: 49
Views: 2390

Re: "Less volatility = more wealth, all else being equal"

Why can't this be taken to mean that a 80/20 stock/bond portfolio will have greater CAGR than an all stock portfolio? Certainly it will have lower volatility, but why doesn't this translate into increased return if the OP is true?
by boggler
Wed May 08, 2013 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Less volatility = more wealth, all else being equal"
Replies: 49
Views: 2390

Re: "Less volatility = more wealth, all else being equal"

Agree with above. First saw it best in first edition of ferri's All About AA. Key is bringing compounded annualized return as close as possible to average annual return. That's why multi asset class investing is a winner. Also well demonstrated in Gibson's Asset Allocation. Dave I don't really unde...
by boggler
Wed May 08, 2013 3:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Less volatility = more wealth, all else being equal"
Replies: 49
Views: 2390

"Less volatility = more wealth, all else being equal"

Is this true? See below. I always thought that as long as you stay invested, it doesn't matter what the volatility is.

Image
by boggler
Wed May 08, 2013 12:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Less volatility = more wealth, all else being equal"
Replies: 49
Views: 2390

Re: Please critique this portfolio: 100% VT. [Total World In

Which of the following are valid justifications for holding 100% stock in VT, given that a bond allocation is generally recommended? - Have a significant (>20%) amount of cash in the bank to act as a "bond" allocation - Have a significant expected future cash income in the near term - Have...
by boggler
Tue May 07, 2013 11:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please critique this portfolio: 100% VT. [Total World Index]
Replies: 68
Views: 3070

Re: What firms allow securities-backed lending via Vanguard?

Wait, you have 200k to invest, presumably in cash, now you want a loan? Eventually you're going to have to ask for a full breadth of advice instaed of goofing around. No goofing around here. I don't need the money right now, perhaps ever. That's why I want to invest it. However, if I do need it at ...
by boggler
Tue May 07, 2013 9:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What firms allow securities-backed lending via Vanguard?
Replies: 22
Views: 791

Re: Volatility harvesting - is this legit?

In theory, if there were really a rebalancing bonus, couldn't you just pick two stocks at random and continually rebalance between them to maintain a 50/50 allocation? When stock A goes down, sell stock B to buy it, and vice versa. If this isn't an effective strategy for free money (and I'm sure it ...
by boggler
Tue May 07, 2013 8:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility harvesting - is this legit?
Replies: 8
Views: 819

Re: What firms allow securities-backed lending via Vanguard?

I may have some temporary, but substantial expenses over the next couple of years, and am wondering what firms will provide a line of credit against my Vanguard investment portfolio. I'm NOT looking for a margin account, since these typically have high rates, result in your own securities being len...
by boggler
Tue May 07, 2013 8:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What firms allow securities-backed lending via Vanguard?
Replies: 22
Views: 791

Re: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?

OP, FWIW I was new to the board about 6 months ago and was deciding on an AA. I came across the PP and thought it was a winning strategy. After doing more research, I decided against it and went with a typical stock/bond strategy. I have owned some gold since 2008 outside of my Vanguard account but...
by boggler
Tue May 07, 2013 8:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 151
Views: 8213

Re: Told myself I'd invest tomorrow...

Got $200k to invest. I told myself I'd put it all in Wednesday (tomorrow). But the market has gone up dramatically over the past few days, and now I'm spooked. Should I still do it? Ahhh, the perils of market timing. You'd be asking yourself the same question if the market went down dramatically ov...
by boggler
Tue May 07, 2013 8:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Told myself I'd invest tomorrow...
Replies: 35
Views: 3271

Re: What firms allow securities-backed lending via Vanguard?

I found this Schwab page through Google. Not sure if they still do it or what the rate is. Why not just get a HELOC? http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/banking_lending/pledged_asset_line.html That looks like a pretty solid option, actually. Minimums look high, but otherwise it's basically what I w...
by boggler
Tue May 07, 2013 8:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What firms allow securities-backed lending via Vanguard?
Replies: 22
Views: 791

Re: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?

I'd guess it's seen as gimmicky or antithetical to Bogleheadism or a flash in the pan, etc. It is none of those things. It is old, low-cost, and based on solid theory. The real beauty of it is the mixture of 3 asset classes that respond differently in different economic climates and do not correlat...
by boggler
Tue May 07, 2013 7:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 151
Views: 8213

Re: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?

Would it be accurate to say that since the portfolio has lower volatility, we are taking a hit in return? And the fact that the performance has matched 100% stock is somewhat of a fluke?
by boggler
Tue May 07, 2013 7:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 151
Views: 8213

Re: Told myself I'd invest tomorrow...

Here is a quote from one of your other posts: "I'm willing to take a lot of risk and stay the course..." You sure about this? Sounds like you're a little nervous about the volatility of the market. Point taken. From my past experience, though, I know that once I'm fully invested I'll stop...
by boggler
Tue May 07, 2013 7:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Told myself I'd invest tomorrow...
Replies: 35
Views: 3271

Re: What firms allow securities-backed lending via Vanguard?

154 posts, but you don't seem to have any idea what Bogleheads are about. You want 100% stock and now you want to borrow against it. You seem to be pretty determined to get yourself into deep financial trouble. I don't mean to sound harsh, but you are so far off the track that some kind of comment ...
by boggler
Tue May 07, 2013 7:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What firms allow securities-backed lending via Vanguard?
Replies: 22
Views: 791

Told myself I'd invest tomorrow...

Got $200k to invest. I told myself I'd put it all in Wednesday (tomorrow). But the market has gone up dramatically over the past few days, and now I'm spooked. Should I still do it?
by boggler
Tue May 07, 2013 7:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Told myself I'd invest tomorrow...
Replies: 35
Views: 3271

Re: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?

I see you are searching for a plan. Whatever you decide, you need the realize that staying the course is extremely important. Yup. That's why I'm asking so many questions. :) So basically, the consensus is that gold is questionable as an asset class since it has no intrinsic value and could very we...
by boggler
Tue May 07, 2013 7:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 151
Views: 8213

Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?

I'm wondering whether the Permanent Portfolio would be more appropriate than an 80/20 stock/bond allocation. Incredibly, it seems to have done just as well as even a 100% stock portfolio over the past 30 years or so, despite the fact that it only holds 25% stocks... and yet it has done so with signi...
by boggler
Tue May 07, 2013 6:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 151
Views: 8213

What firms allow securities-backed lending via Vanguard?

I may have some temporary, but substantial expenses over the next couple of years, and am wondering what firms will provide a line of credit against my Vanguard investment portfolio. I'm NOT looking for a margin account, since these typically have high rates, result in your own securities being lent...
by boggler
Tue May 07, 2013 4:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What firms allow securities-backed lending via Vanguard?
Replies: 22
Views: 791

Re: Please critique this portfolio: 100% VT. [Total World In

So now I'm wondering whether the Permanent Portfolio would be more appropriate. Incredibly, it seems to have done just as well as a 100% stock portfolio over the past 30 years or so, despite the fact that it only holds 25% stocks... and done so with significantly less volatility. Why don't more peop...
by boggler
Tue May 07, 2013 4:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please critique this portfolio: 100% VT. [Total World Index]
Replies: 68
Views: 3070

Re: Please critique this portfolio: 100% VT. [Total World In

I think more people would switch to VT when the fund expense ratio drops more, like say when it hits .1%. I have to admit, part of the reason I'm leaning towards VT is because I expect this to happen eventually. I think VT's assets will grow over time and Vanguard will be able to further lower the ...
by boggler
Tue May 07, 2013 10:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please critique this portfolio: 100% VT. [Total World Index]
Replies: 68
Views: 3070

Multiple asset classes - will your portfolio outperform?

On this forum, we talk a lot about the three-fund portfolio, or a simple balance between stocks and bonds. Yet the Wealthfront FAQ says the following: Wealthfront employs eight asset classes in its retirement portfolio allocations, and seven tax-efficient asset classes in its taxable portfolio alloc...
by boggler
Tue May 07, 2013 10:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multiple asset classes - will your portfolio outperform?
Replies: 19
Views: 862

Re: Volatility harvesting - is this legit?

It is a simple illustration of rebalancing. A. Suppose you start with S and wager the entire amount. If you win, you have 2S. If you lose, you have S/2. After one win and one loss (the order does not matter) you are even. B. Suppose you start with S and wager half the entire amount. If you win, you...
by boggler
Tue May 07, 2013 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility harvesting - is this legit?
Replies: 8
Views: 819

Volatility harvesting - is this legit?

I just learned about this idea, but have never seen it mentioned before today on the board. Is it a real effect? Is it a legitimate reason to split one's portfolio to take advantage of it?

http://www.stableinvesting.com/2013/04/ ... demon.html
by boggler
Tue May 07, 2013 12:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility harvesting - is this legit?
Replies: 8
Views: 819

Re: Please critique this portfolio: 100% VT.

Looking at MPT the only way to get HIGHER returns then equities is to find another asset that has a HIGHER expected return. No mix of a higher expected return and lower expected return assets can produce a higher expected return in combination. It can reduce volatility, but cannot increase returns ...
by boggler
Mon May 06, 2013 9:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please critique this portfolio: 100% VT. [Total World Index]
Replies: 68
Views: 3070

Re: Please critique this portfolio: 100% VT.

Great post. I want 100% VT because of the higher return and the total simplicity. That said, the points about risk adjusted returns are well-taken, and I'm willing to add a bond allocation. There are two options: 1) Devote all my tax-advantaged accounts to BND (coincidentally, these accounts compri...
by boggler
Mon May 06, 2013 4:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please critique this portfolio: 100% VT. [Total World Index]
Replies: 68
Views: 3070

Re: Please critique this portfolio: 100% VT.

Do not overestimate your risk tolerance. Think long and hard about why you think it is so important to be at 100% stocks rather than, say 80% stocks. Great post. I want 100% VT because of the higher return and the total simplicity. That said, the points about risk adjusted returns are well-taken, a...
by boggler
Mon May 06, 2013 12:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please critique this portfolio: 100% VT. [Total World Index]
Replies: 68
Views: 3070

Re: Please critique this portfolio: 100% VT.

MN Finance wrote:Even with an all stock portfolio, I would want to add some international.


I'm talking VT, not VTI. VT is the Vanguard Total World Stock Index.

MN Finance wrote:A 100/0 portfolio but better sliced had an historical return of say 13% and a standard deviation of 15%.


This sounds appealing. What's the portfolio?
by boggler
Mon May 06, 2013 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please critique this portfolio: 100% VT. [Total World Index]
Replies: 68
Views: 3070

Re: Please critique this portfolio.

Should I be holding 5% in natural resources to guard against some sort of world calamity or black swan event?
by boggler
Mon May 06, 2013 11:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please critique this portfolio: 100% VT. [Total World Index]
Replies: 68
Views: 3070

Re: Please critique this portfolio.

I'm in my twenties, and will be investing for the long term. Over 80% of my assets are in a taxable account. I'm willing to take a lot of risk and stay the course, and I'd like a portfolio that is hands-off. The proposed portfolio: 100% VT What do you think? Asking portfolio question http://www.bog...
by boggler
Mon May 06, 2013 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please critique this portfolio: 100% VT. [Total World Index]
Replies: 68
Views: 3070

Please critique this portfolio: 100% VT. [Total World Index]

I'm in my twenties, and will be investing for the long term. Over 80% of my assets are in a taxable account. I'm willing to take a lot of risk and stay the course, and I'd like a portfolio that is hands-off.

The proposed portfolio:

100% VT

What do you think?
by boggler
Mon May 06, 2013 10:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please critique this portfolio: 100% VT. [Total World Index]
Replies: 68
Views: 3070

Re: Don't want to TLH. Is this a bad idea?

So what's the benefit of all this? On a 500k portfolio, say, how much tax alpha will TLH really get you in expectation?
by boggler
Fri May 03, 2013 1:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Don't want to TLH. Is this a bad idea? [Tax Loss Harvest]
Replies: 38
Views: 1953

Don't want to TLH. Is this a bad idea? [Tax Loss Harvest]

It just seems too complicated. I want a set-it-and-forget-it portfolio, and am strongly considering investing 100% in VT. Put it all in VT, and leave it alone for a long time. But if I wanted to TLH, I'd be better off slicing and dicing to take advantage of market volatility, monitoring the portfoli...
by boggler
Fri May 03, 2013 12:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Don't want to TLH. Is this a bad idea? [Tax Loss Harvest]
Replies: 38
Views: 1953

Re: Not invested. Help!

I've got a bunch of money sitting in cash, because I was still trying to figure out my asset allocation and thus haven't invested. I'm watching the market climb over the past week or two, and freaking out that I haven't done anything yet. What's a good way to get over this and get it done? If you a...
by boggler
Fri May 03, 2013 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Not invested. Help!
Replies: 11
Views: 734

Re: Market Decimalization and the Rise of ETFs

Why do you strongly favor Admiral shares?
by boggler
Fri May 03, 2013 11:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Decimalization and the Rise of ETFs
Replies: 5
Views: 466

Not invested. Help!

I've got a bunch of money sitting in cash, because I was still trying to figure out my asset allocation and thus haven't invested. I'm watching the market climb over the past week or two, and freaking out that I haven't done anything yet. What's a good way to get over this and get it done?
by boggler
Fri May 03, 2013 10:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Not invested. Help!
Replies: 11
Views: 734
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