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Re: Am I saving too much for retirement?

I am sure that it is never possible to save too much, blah blah blah. Of course it's possible to save too much. Some people live like paupers while working in hopes of living like princes and princesses in old age. This is not a very reasonable way to plan ones financial life. There is a difference...
by bobcat2
Tue Apr 21, 2015 6:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I saving too much for retirement?
Replies: 27
Views: 4670

Re: Count Pension + SS as part of the Bond portion of AA?

retiredjg asks the following question of Alec. But what is the purpose of calculating the present value of an income stream if you are not going to do anything with the number? I'm not Alec, but here is my answer for people who use this calculation in order to place the PV of SS and DB pensions in ...
by bobcat2
Thu Apr 16, 2015 11:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Count Pension + SS as part of the Bond portion of AA?
Replies: 31
Views: 2142

Re: Count Pension + SS as part of the Bond portion of AA?

I don't see anything wrong with calculating the present value of the income streams from pensions and social security. Actuaries do this all the time. However, after one does this is where I think people run into problems. For example, let's say that after considering the prevent values of your mot...
by bobcat2
Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Count Pension + SS as part of the Bond portion of AA?
Replies: 31
Views: 2142

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

Because my interest is more financial than academic, I am hedging my claiming strategy instead of relying on simple Social Security calculators. This may make you feel better, but it is nothing more than guessing. The calculators will more than likely give you a more accurate prediction. If you rea...
by bobcat2
Wed Apr 15, 2015 5:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24725

Re: Need some help with SPIA choices

Hi guys, So my aunt is thinking of annuitizing a small part of her portfolio so that she can be less concerned about spending down the rest of it, as well as feeling more confident in a higher equity allocation. What are the recommended companies to use? If one was going to annuitize a lot of money...
by bobcat2
Sun Apr 12, 2015 10:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need some help with SPIA choices
Replies: 6
Views: 758

Re: "New" Social Security Facts

Bogleheads have forever recommended taking Social Security at age 70 because of the inflation indexed pension it represents. There are two new reasons (at least new to me) to delay the benefits until age 70. Today's USA Today online newspaper had an article on Social Security benefits and what goes...
by bobcat2
Sat Apr 11, 2015 2:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Social Security Facts
Replies: 13
Views: 1551

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

I watched Robert Altman's The Player this morning (for perhaps the 10th time). One of the best films ever made about Hollywood. Also, it probably has the most A-List celebrity cameos in the history of film. When The Player first came out I really liked it and recommended it to a friend. A few weeks...
by bobcat2
Sun Apr 05, 2015 9:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 781
Views: 105044

Do real longevity annuities exist?

CPI-Indexed Single-Premium Deferred Annuities What a mouthful :D I assume you are referring to real longevity annuities, sometimes called real delayed annuities. I am not aware of any true real longevity annuities having ever been offered. I believe, at least for a while when longevity annuities we...
by bobcat2
Sat Apr 04, 2015 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do CPI-Indexed Single-Premium Deferred Annuities exist?
Replies: 27
Views: 2155

Re: The May meeting & other administrative stuff

One person volunteered to schedule the meeting room in his apartment building in the Ballston area for the meeting in May. We agreed to try that. He has attended several meetings and I should know his name and his Boglehead handle, but I don't. If he sees this post, I would appreciate it if he woul...
by bobcat2
Thu Apr 02, 2015 9:44 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 35
Views: 5062

The May meeting & other administrative stuff

Administrative issues that were discussed at the March meeting of DC Bogleheads. One person had emailed requesting some or all meetings be held on Saturdays rather than Sundays. As best I recall the consensus at the meeting was that most people prefer Sunday over Saturday and holding some of the me...
by bobcat2
Wed Apr 01, 2015 11:47 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 35
Views: 5062

Re: Can consumers assess the value of life annuities?

" The short answer is NO! " I doubt you are surprised, Bob. The 401K mentality coupled with SWR silliness prevent lots of folks from even considering (not to say valuing) an income stream. The great push is for people to find the infamous "NUMBER," meaning a pile of money, rathe...
by bobcat2
Wed Apr 01, 2015 8:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can consumers assess the value of life annuities?
Replies: 7
Views: 787

Re: The final word on portfolio spending rate in retirement

There is an earlier thread on this topic here.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=162457

This thread should be merged with the earlier thread.

BobK
by bobcat2
Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Final Say on Spending Rules" - L. Siegel
Replies: 17
Views: 2610

Can consumers assess the value of life annuities?

Are most Americans capable of accurately assessing the value of life annuities? The short answer is NO! The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College has just published a brief on this issue where respondents were asked to value hypothetical changes in their monthly Social Security benefit. I...
by bobcat2
Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can consumers assess the value of life annuities?
Replies: 7
Views: 787

Re: Ad Blockers

Adblock Plus used to be good but they have sold out recently, allowing ad networks to pay them to be ''whitelisted'' and get ads through. (They claim they do this very rarely but in reality hundreds of networks and sites are whitelisted, and even if they scaled it back, why use an adblocker that do...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 30, 2015 6:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ad Blockers
Replies: 34
Views: 1828

Re: Ad Blockers

For both Firefox and Chrome there is uBlock. But for Chrome alone there is µMatrix. 8-) µMatrix is like NoScript, but without the headaches. Just be careful when using uBlock and µMatrix together in Chrome you don't repeat the blocking lists. I use the blocking lists in µMatrix and turn any off in u...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 30, 2015 6:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ad Blockers
Replies: 34
Views: 1828

The new blogger

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] There is a new blogger in the finance & economics blogosphere. Some guy named Bernanke and his first post concerns the level of interest rates in the US. An informing read written by someone who has both academic and real world experience o...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernanke's Blog: why are interest rates so low?
Replies: 52
Views: 6854

The economies of shared living

I've looked thru this thread and there is one important aspect of moving in together I haven't seen discussed - the economies of shared living. That is, when two people living separately move in together they raise their individual living standards. The shared rent of a bigger apartment per person i...
by bobcat2
Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Financial Implications of Moving in Together
Replies: 59
Views: 3145

Re: DC Bogleheads next meeting is this Sunday the 22nd

SGM wrote:Was the above referenced paper presented at the 2014 social security sponsored retirement research conference in DC? I remember a discussion of framing.
I too think I sat thru a presentation of this paper, but I think it was 2012 or 2013.

BobK
by bobcat2
Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:30 am
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: DC Bogleheads next meeting is this Sunday the 22nd
Replies: 4
Views: 660

Social Security Claiming & Financial Planning

Here are links to some of the materials that will be covered at Sunday’s meeting. To get the most out of the discussion on Sunday I suggest perusing the first two articles before the meeting and perhaps bringing them with you either in hard copy or electronically. Efficient Retirement Design Combini...
by bobcat2
Fri Mar 20, 2015 4:26 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: DC Bogleheads next meeting is this Sunday the 22nd
Replies: 4
Views: 660

DC Bogleheads next meeting is this Sunday the 22nd

The next meeting of the Washington area Bogleheads is scheduled for this Sunday, March 22, 3-5 PM at the Ballston library. There should be plenty of time for general investment topics as well as a discussion of how to mesh Social Security claiming strategies with portfolio investments and withdrawal...
by bobcat2
Thu Mar 19, 2015 7:01 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: DC Bogleheads next meeting is this Sunday the 22nd
Replies: 4
Views: 660

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

I admit I haven't read Kotlikoff's book yet, so I appreciate BobK's pasting in those remarkable stats about how few people postpone til age 70. It's really hard to believe. As pointed out above, the issue of delaying SS to 70 is tangled up with the issue of how to get by financially until that inco...
by bobcat2
Tue Mar 17, 2015 9:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24725

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

They see SS as a gamble between themselves and Uncle Sam and they don't want to lose that bet. In this last case framing the issue thru break-even analysis leads people to claim early, so they don't lose the bet. See the following research paper, Framing Effects and Expected Social Security Claimin...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 16, 2015 10:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24725

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

I would guess that a fair number of those who currently delay until age 70 are still working and paying into the system for both Social Security and Medicare (improving the viability of those programs for everyone.) Since 1% of males and 2% of females delay until age 70 there isn't any 'fair number...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 16, 2015 8:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24725

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

Hi Christine_NM, What makes the book funny is 50 pages later Larry goes out to dinner with his friend and fellow economist, Glenn Loury. You know what's going to happen, but here there is a free meal and $120,000 involved. We're starting to talk real money. :happy Glenn is an interesting guy. At his...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 16, 2015 7:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24725

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

Here's part of a table from Get What's Yours . This is a table showing at what age men claimed SS in 2012. The top row is age of claimant The second row is % of claimants at each age 62 63 64 65 66 DI* 67-69 70 38 6 7 12 18 16 2 1 *DI - Disability payments are automatically converted to retirement p...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 16, 2015 6:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24725

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

TomatoTomahto wrote:
dodecahedron wrote:ESPlanner software is apparently a labor of love, according to Larry.

As someone who developed software for 30+ years, I can see it -- ESPlanner is quite an achievement. If I had been involved, I'd be very proud.

:thumbsup :thumbsup

BobK
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 16, 2015 6:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24725

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

I see Get What's Yours is currently also the best selling book at Barnes & Noble. I would never have thought that a book on SS claiming strategies would be the #1 selling book in America for at least a period of several days. :shock: Amazing :!: This must be many viewers of the PBS Newshour buyi...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 16, 2015 3:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24725

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

Hi L, This morning I took my wife to the hospital for her chemotherapy and we started a conversation with a woman being infused in the next chair. The conversation turned to the book I was reading and I said that it was a fairly humorous read for such a dry topic. Here, read the first couple of page...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 16, 2015 2:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24725

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

This book has really hit a chord with America. Currently at Amazon Get What's Yours is the overall #1 selling book, not just the #1 selling book in finance and economics. Amazing :!: :o

Congrats to the authors. :sharebeer

BobK
by bobcat2
Sun Mar 15, 2015 10:13 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24725

Next meeting is on the 22nd, NOT the 15th

I have just approved a new member at DC Bogleheads. The reason the person gave for wanting to join now is to attend tomorrow's meeting. :shock: :oops: So once again the local moderators are sending a reminder. This month we are NOT meeting on the third Sunday, March 15. Instead we are meeting the fo...
by bobcat2
Sat Mar 14, 2015 5:02 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 35
Views: 5062

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

Hi Miriam, Present value (PV) is pretty simple. It's what something is worth if I bought it today. This is easy if it's a lump sum today. A portfolio of stocks and bonds worth $300,000 today has a present value of $300,000. That's not difficult is it? :) But what instead of a lump sum today I have a...
by bobcat2
Fri Mar 13, 2015 9:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24725

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

In the current low real interest rate environment the gains from delaying SS benefits from age 62 to age 70 range from large to huge. At the low end are single males of below average health and earnings. In that case the NPV gain of delay is in the neighborhood of $50,000 (Shoven et al). At the high...
by bobcat2
Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24725

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

I agree that a break-even analysis with a zero discount rate doesn't make sense. And I agree that a break-even analysis with a super-high discount rate doesn't make sense. I would add though, that the same is true for NPV analyses. The difference is there is no incentive to do this when using NPV. ...
by bobcat2
Fri Mar 13, 2015 6:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24725

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

Any NPV calculation done in the last 5 years will show that everyone, except the terminally ill and near terminally ill at these low real interest rates, should delay until age 70. If break-even also always shows that everyone but the gravely ill over the last 5 years should delay until age 70, then...
by bobcat2
Fri Mar 13, 2015 2:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24725

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

Hi Mike, I know of no insurance that passes break-even analysis. I think break-even analysis is very weak gruel. OTOH NPV makes a lot of sense, is easy to do, and is rarely done. :oops: BobK I agree with the bolded part -- and that's why, in most cases, people should only buy insurance that they ne...
by bobcat2
Fri Mar 13, 2015 9:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24725

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

Hi Mike,
I know of no insurance that passes break-even analysis. I think break-even analysis is very weak gruel. OTOH NPV makes a lot of sense, is easy to do, and is rarely done. :oops:

BobK
by bobcat2
Fri Mar 13, 2015 9:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24725

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

This thread is about Laurence Kotlikoff's new book and how to understand and optimize your choices for your circumstances under the current rules for Social Security. On pages 16-17 of his book, Kotlikoff writes about the claiming decision as a "break-even" calculation and gives the follo...
by bobcat2
Fri Mar 13, 2015 9:00 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24725

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

Here is a link to an interesting discussion with Larry Kotlikoff, Alicia Munnell, and Stephen Goss (chief actuary at Social Security) about aggressive Social Security claiming strategies. Both Kotlikoff and Munnell seem to be in interesting situations vis-a-vis this subject. :wink: Link to discussio...
by bobcat2
Fri Mar 13, 2015 8:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24725

Next meeting is on the 22nd, not the 15th

The next meeting of the Washington area Bogleheads is scheduled for Sunday, March 22, 3-5PM at the Ballston library. There will not be a meeting this coming Sunday, March 15. The day after our last meeting I scheduled the March meeting. We generally meet on the third Sunday of every other month, whi...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 09, 2015 10:28 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 35
Views: 5062

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

It's times like this I really miss sscritic. I'm sure that if he were to read the book and was still posting here, I would get a PM from an exasperated sscritic about how they screwed up some of the Social Security rules in the book. :) Come back sscritic :!: Why do I feel like I am channeling Shane...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 09, 2015 10:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24725

Re: Boglehead degree status

Bachelors: Understands BH basics. Masters: Understands & contributes to topics such as bond maturity merits/pitfalls etc. Ability to converse well on the merits of Fama-French models among others & provide charts & analysis that goes along with those discussions. Doctorate: Understands ...
by bobcat2
Sun Mar 08, 2015 12:53 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Boglehead degree status
Replies: 52
Views: 5292

A Primer on Risk

Here's an old post that discusses the basics of financial risk.

Link to post - Risk - A Primer

BobK
by bobcat2
Sun Mar 01, 2015 3:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk--Again. The common stepping stone
Replies: 57
Views: 3771

Re: TIPS Yield Crash November 2008 - Why?

From Greg Mankiw's blog on 12/3/2008. According to U.S. Treasury data, the five-year real interest rate from the TIPS market on 11/28/08 was 4.17 percent. Yesterday, it was 2.03 percent. That is a huge change over only a few days. What happened? It appears to be, in large measure, a figment of data ...
by bobcat2
Thu Feb 26, 2015 5:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Crash November 2008 - Why?
Replies: 18
Views: 1572

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

I see that Get What's Yours is currently the #1 Best Seller in Business & Money at Amazon and the hard copy edition is out of stock, which figures if it is the #1 seller. :)

BobK
by bobcat2
Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 24725

Re: Risk vs Uncertainty

pkcrafter wrote. I believe the distinctions in definitions (of risk & uncertainty) is still worth knowing. HI Paul, I also believe the meaning of the word risk is important. Here is the meaning of the word risk from several dictionaries and an encyclopedia. The possibility of loss or injury - Me...
by bobcat2
Thu Feb 12, 2015 8:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk vs Uncertainty
Replies: 19
Views: 1450

Re: Risk vs Uncertainty

Hi pkcrafter, You are referring to the definitions of risk and uncertainty that Frank Knight promulgated in his 1921 book, Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit. Knight distinguished uncertainty from risk. He died over 40 years ago. You are referring to the book that he wrote about a 100 years that was dela...
by bobcat2
Thu Feb 12, 2015 1:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk vs Uncertainty
Replies: 19
Views: 1450

Re: Is Risk Real?

A risky situation is one where the outcome is not certain. Risk management is making choices under conditions of uncertainty. There is no risk to be managed if the outcomes are certain. If there were no uncertainty, then there would be no risk and the field of finance would be essentially reduced to...
by bobcat2
Tue Feb 10, 2015 3:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Risk Real?
Replies: 74
Views: 4080

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

The Alexandria public library has meeting rooms available to patrons and their organizations for meetings of an educational, cultural or civic nature. However, to reserve the meeting rooms you must be " a library cardholder in good standing (no fines or fees on your account) who lives in, or o...
by bobcat2
Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:50 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 35
Views: 5062

Re: "how to measure risk?"

When has the global equity market gone down and stayed down? The answer is never. It can't happen if society is to continue as most of the world is capitalistic, i.e. those who provide the capital are the ones who profit. Myth meet reality. From the point of view of a US investor, who is invested i...
by bobcat2
Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "how to measure risk?"
Replies: 35
Views: 1945

Re: "how to measure risk?"

How to measure portfolio risk. Portfolio risk (uncertainty) is typically measured by annual standard deviation (SD). This measure of risk is often called volatility. Its value is usually found either by taking the standard deviation (SD) of annual returns or annualizing the SD of monthly returns. S...
by bobcat2
Wed Feb 04, 2015 11:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "how to measure risk?"
Replies: 35
Views: 1945
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