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by bobcat2
Fri May 22, 2015 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 2659

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

Please, that is like being asked what to invest in for growth and talking about REITS, but leaving out equities, and then explaining that over sights happen when one only has 26 minutes. :D BobK Disagree, "most" commentators/pundits just refer to bonds generally and don't make the distinc...
by bobcat2
Thu May 21, 2015 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 2659

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

In response to what to do about a surge of inflation Asness said only that one should invest in commodities. He left out real bonds. In fairness to Mr. Asness, it was a 26 minute interview and he was asked several questions. He can't be faulted for omitting something because of the limited time he h...
by bobcat2
Thu May 21, 2015 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 2659

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

Perhaps because TIPS didn't exist during most inflation shocks. We know what they should do, but reality is sometimes different. That said, if anything one might imagine people piling into TIPS and bidding down the yields, giving you returns above inflation in the short term. Real bonds existed in ...
by bobcat2
Thu May 21, 2015 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 2659

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

Hi nedsaid, With regard to inflation shocks Asness notes that is really bad for bonds and not good for stocks at least in the SR. He then claims that commodities are the only good asset class, if there is an inflation shock. Apparently, Asness has never heard of real bonds such as TIPS. :) BobK This...
by bobcat2
Thu May 21, 2015 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 2659

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

With regard to inflation shocks Asness notes that is really bad for bonds and not good for stocks at least in the SR. He then claims that commodities are the only good asset class, if there is an inflation shock. Apparently, Asness has never heard of real bonds such as TIPS. :)

BobK
by bobcat2
Wed May 20, 2015 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your thoughts about Peter Schiff's doomsday prediction
Replies: 39
Views: 7014

Re: Your thoughts about Peter Schiff's doomsday prediction

Here are several predictions Schiff has made in the last several years. The accuracy of these predictions has been dismal. 1) Dec 2006: Peter Schiff on Fox News said inflation and interest rates would go up in 2007, 2008, and 2009. This didn't happen. 2) Jan 2009: Peter Schiff said in US News that t...
by bobcat2
Mon May 18, 2015 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 2659

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

Mr Asness has been in the news a lot lately expressing his views on several subjects. Here are two of my favorite recent articles about Cliff and his opinions on subjects that have at least a substantial financial component. The last sentence of this first article is classic. [OT link removed by adm...
by bobcat2
Tue May 12, 2015 9:08 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 37
Views: 5604

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Here is additional information about Sunday's meeting location. The Liberty Center high rise condo/apartment complex at 888 North Quincy Street, Arlington, on the west side of the street, is located two blocks south of the Ballston library also on North Quincy. (The library is on the east side of No...
by bobcat2
Mon May 11, 2015 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where can I find total returns for Japan?
Replies: 15
Views: 790

Re: Where can I find total returns for Japan?

What is the global equity since 1990? Going all the way back to 1900 doesn't make sense, not only because the world is incredibly different, but also because only 3 people in the world today were alive then. We go back to 1900 because that's the longest period for which we have reliable data from m...
by bobcat2
Sun May 10, 2015 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where can I find total returns for Japan?
Replies: 15
Views: 790

Re: Where can I find total returns for Japan?

Had the person invested solely in bonds, or simply heavily in bonds, they would have done quite well. :D I wouldn't exactly call a 4-5% annual return doing quite well. It's rather depressing actually. From Credit Suisse Yearbook of global equity returns. real annual global equity returns 1900-2014 ...
by bobcat2
Sun May 10, 2015 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where can I find total returns for Japan?
Replies: 15
Views: 790

Re: Where can I find total returns for Japan?

I was really curious about this, so I calculated it. Here is the setup: Someone invested 75400.50¥ at the beginning of 1990. I chose this number because it's the equivalent of $1000 USD at the end of 2014. The reference to USD is purely to give you an idea of how much the amount is. All my calculat...
by bobcat2
Sun May 10, 2015 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where can I find total returns for Japan?
Replies: 15
Views: 790

Re: Where can I find total returns for Japan?

From Triumph of the Optimists here are the equity and bond real returns for Japan for the eleven year period from 1990-2000. stocks annual geometric real return -7.1% bonds annual geometric real return 5.4% From latest Credit Suisse Yearbook update of Triumph of the Optimists here are the equity and...
by bobcat2
Sun May 10, 2015 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle possible mistake? Discussion [on age-based portfolios]
Replies: 67
Views: 6959

Re: Bogle possible mistake? Discussion [on age-based portfolios]

BTW investors in some countries have had very long periods of negative returns had they held the global portfolio. I couldn't seem to find anything on this. Maybe you could post some links? See the paper, Irrational Optimism , by the authors of Triumph of the Optimists . From the Abstract . We addr...
by bobcat2
Sun May 10, 2015 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle possible mistake? Discussion [on age-based portfolios]
Replies: 67
Views: 6959

Re: Bogle possible mistake? Discussion [on age-based portfolios]

backpacker wrote. So why think the stock returns of the defeated axis powers tell us anything about the safety of our stocks? If you hold a global portfolio, there probably is some chance that some country in which you own stocks will lose a war and be occupied. But that's what diversification is f...
by bobcat2
Sat May 09, 2015 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle possible mistake? Discussion [on age-based portfolios]
Replies: 67
Views: 6959

Re: Bogle possible mistake? Discussion [on age-based portfolios]

backpacker wrote. I was responding to a particular argument that tries to use short-term options to argue that owning stocks for decades is risky. Bodie was arguing using standard option theory that stocks are risky when held for a long time. Option theory is option theory, regardless of the time p...
by bobcat2
Sat May 09, 2015 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle possible mistake? Discussion [on age-based portfolios]
Replies: 67
Views: 6959

Re: John Bogle possible mistake? Discussion

It is true that if we compare a one week put to a 24 month put, the price of the puts will tell us that risk over 24 months is greater than the risk over a week. That makes sense. Economic crises usually take time to develop. The 2008 crash unfolded over months. It didn't happen in a week. But from...
by bobcat2
Thu Apr 30, 2015 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reverse Mortgages-now better, but harder to get
Replies: 18
Views: 1752

Re: Reverse Mortgages-now better, but harder to get

Whenever I see financial institutions pushing hard on reverse mortgages I know in my mind that it's not because it's good for me, but they do so because it's good for THEM. Same with annuities... good for the salesman but not necessarily good for you. There's no free lunch, is there ? ? It would se...
by bobcat2
Thu Apr 30, 2015 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reverse Mortgages-now better, but harder to get
Replies: 18
Views: 1752

Reverse Mortgages-now better, but harder to get

New federal rules that kicked in on April 27, 2015 may make it harder for some people to qualify for reverse mortgages. But they’ll also make it more likely that those who do receive reverse mortgages will have fewer worries about them. “I think these changes are positive overall,” says Phil Stevens...
by bobcat2
Tue Apr 28, 2015 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NPV of Pension in the Retirement Portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 980

Re: NPV of Pension in the Retirement Portfolio

It never occurred to me to count our pension as part of our retirement portfolio. So I calculated its NPV and played with firecalc adding in our pension as social security. I like what I see. The NPV of our pension = 10% of our 60/35/5/0 retirement portfolio. Adding the pension would make it 55/30/...
by bobcat2
Mon Apr 27, 2015 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help Choosing Survivor Pension Option (50% vs 100%)
Replies: 25
Views: 1854

Re: Help Choosing Survivor Pension Option (50% vs 100%)

This advice is for my father in law, who is relying on me for some financial help. Union worker, he will retire in about a year at 62. His wife is a year older, each has a mother still alive in their early 90s. They will need the pension to live on so the decision will have impact on their finances...
by bobcat2
Tue Apr 21, 2015 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I saving too much for retirement?
Replies: 27
Views: 4757

Re: Am I saving too much for retirement?

I am sure that it is never possible to save too much, blah blah blah. Of course it's possible to save too much. Some people live like paupers while working in hopes of living like princes and princesses in old age. This is not a very reasonable way to plan ones financial life. There is a difference...
by bobcat2
Thu Apr 16, 2015 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Count Pension + SS as part of the Bond portion of AA?
Replies: 31
Views: 2209

Re: Count Pension + SS as part of the Bond portion of AA?

retiredjg asks the following question of Alec. But what is the purpose of calculating the present value of an income stream if you are not going to do anything with the number? I'm not Alec, but here is my answer for people who use this calculation in order to place the PV of SS and DB pensions in ...
by bobcat2
Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Count Pension + SS as part of the Bond portion of AA?
Replies: 31
Views: 2209

Re: Count Pension + SS as part of the Bond portion of AA?

I don't see anything wrong with calculating the present value of the income streams from pensions and social security. Actuaries do this all the time. However, after one does this is where I think people run into problems. For example, let's say that after considering the prevent values of your mot...
by bobcat2
Wed Apr 15, 2015 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 25904

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

Because my interest is more financial than academic, I am hedging my claiming strategy instead of relying on simple Social Security calculators. This may make you feel better, but it is nothing more than guessing. The calculators will more than likely give you a more accurate prediction. If you rea...
by bobcat2
Sun Apr 12, 2015 10:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need some help with SPIA choices
Replies: 6
Views: 771

Re: Need some help with SPIA choices

Hi guys, So my aunt is thinking of annuitizing a small part of her portfolio so that she can be less concerned about spending down the rest of it, as well as feeling more confident in a higher equity allocation. What are the recommended companies to use? If one was going to annuitize a lot of money...
by bobcat2
Sat Apr 11, 2015 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Social Security Facts
Replies: 13
Views: 1581

Re: "New" Social Security Facts

Bogleheads have forever recommended taking Social Security at age 70 because of the inflation indexed pension it represents. There are two new reasons (at least new to me) to delay the benefits until age 70. Today's USA Today online newspaper had an article on Social Security benefits and what goes...
by bobcat2
Sun Apr 05, 2015 9:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 828
Views: 116116

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

I watched Robert Altman's The Player this morning (for perhaps the 10th time). One of the best films ever made about Hollywood. Also, it probably has the most A-List celebrity cameos in the history of film. When The Player first came out I really liked it and recommended it to a friend. A few weeks...
by bobcat2
Sat Apr 04, 2015 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do CPI-Indexed Single-Premium Deferred Annuities exist?
Replies: 27
Views: 2211

Do real longevity annuities exist?

CPI-Indexed Single-Premium Deferred Annuities What a mouthful :D I assume you are referring to real longevity annuities, sometimes called real delayed annuities. I am not aware of any true real longevity annuities having ever been offered. I believe, at least for a while when longevity annuities we...
by bobcat2
Thu Apr 02, 2015 9:44 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 37
Views: 5604

Re: The May meeting & other administrative stuff

One person volunteered to schedule the meeting room in his apartment building in the Ballston area for the meeting in May. We agreed to try that. He has attended several meetings and I should know his name and his Boglehead handle, but I don't. If he sees this post, I would appreciate it if he woul...
by bobcat2
Wed Apr 01, 2015 11:47 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 37
Views: 5604

The May meeting & other administrative stuff

Administrative issues that were discussed at the March meeting of DC Bogleheads. One person had emailed requesting some or all meetings be held on Saturdays rather than Sundays. As best I recall the consensus at the meeting was that most people prefer Sunday over Saturday and holding some of the me...
by bobcat2
Wed Apr 01, 2015 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can consumers assess the value of life annuities?
Replies: 7
Views: 819

Re: Can consumers assess the value of life annuities?

" The short answer is NO! " I doubt you are surprised, Bob. The 401K mentality coupled with SWR silliness prevent lots of folks from even considering (not to say valuing) an income stream. The great push is for people to find the infamous "NUMBER," meaning a pile of money, rathe...
by bobcat2
Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Final Say on Spending Rules" - L. Siegel
Replies: 17
Views: 2712

Re: The final word on portfolio spending rate in retirement

There is an earlier thread on this topic here.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=162457

This thread should be merged with the earlier thread.

BobK
by bobcat2
Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can consumers assess the value of life annuities?
Replies: 7
Views: 819

Can consumers assess the value of life annuities?

Are most Americans capable of accurately assessing the value of life annuities? The short answer is NO! The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College has just published a brief on this issue where respondents were asked to value hypothetical changes in their monthly Social Security benefit. I...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 30, 2015 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ad Blockers
Replies: 34
Views: 1994

Re: Ad Blockers

Adblock Plus used to be good but they have sold out recently, allowing ad networks to pay them to be ''whitelisted'' and get ads through. (They claim they do this very rarely but in reality hundreds of networks and sites are whitelisted, and even if they scaled it back, why use an adblocker that do...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 30, 2015 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ad Blockers
Replies: 34
Views: 1994

Re: Ad Blockers

For both Firefox and Chrome there is uBlock. But for Chrome alone there is µMatrix. 8-) µMatrix is like NoScript, but without the headaches. Just be careful when using uBlock and µMatrix together in Chrome you don't repeat the blocking lists. I use the blocking lists in µMatrix and turn any off in u...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernanke's Blog: why are interest rates so low?
Replies: 52
Views: 7136

The new blogger

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] There is a new blogger in the finance & economics blogosphere. Some guy named Bernanke and his first post concerns the level of interest rates in the US. An informing read written by someone who has both academic and real world experience o...
by bobcat2
Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Financial Implications of Moving in Together
Replies: 59
Views: 3243

The economies of shared living

I've looked thru this thread and there is one important aspect of moving in together I haven't seen discussed - the economies of shared living. That is, when two people living separately move in together they raise their individual living standards. The shared rent of a bigger apartment per person i...
by bobcat2
Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:30 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: DC Bogleheads next meeting is this Sunday the 22nd
Replies: 4
Views: 761

Re: DC Bogleheads next meeting is this Sunday the 22nd

SGM wrote:Was the above referenced paper presented at the 2014 social security sponsored retirement research conference in DC? I remember a discussion of framing.
I too think I sat thru a presentation of this paper, but I think it was 2012 or 2013.

BobK
by bobcat2
Fri Mar 20, 2015 4:26 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: DC Bogleheads next meeting is this Sunday the 22nd
Replies: 4
Views: 761

Social Security Claiming & Financial Planning

Here are links to some of the materials that will be covered at Sunday’s meeting. To get the most out of the discussion on Sunday I suggest perusing the first two articles before the meeting and perhaps bringing them with you either in hard copy or electronically. Efficient Retirement Design Combini...
by bobcat2
Thu Mar 19, 2015 7:01 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: DC Bogleheads next meeting is this Sunday the 22nd
Replies: 4
Views: 761

DC Bogleheads next meeting is this Sunday the 22nd

The next meeting of the Washington area Bogleheads is scheduled for this Sunday, March 22, 3-5 PM at the Ballston library. There should be plenty of time for general investment topics as well as a discussion of how to mesh Social Security claiming strategies with portfolio investments and withdrawal...
by bobcat2
Tue Mar 17, 2015 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 25904

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

I admit I haven't read Kotlikoff's book yet, so I appreciate BobK's pasting in those remarkable stats about how few people postpone til age 70. It's really hard to believe. As pointed out above, the issue of delaying SS to 70 is tangled up with the issue of how to get by financially until that inco...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 16, 2015 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 25904

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

They see SS as a gamble between themselves and Uncle Sam and they don't want to lose that bet. In this last case framing the issue thru break-even analysis leads people to claim early, so they don't lose the bet. See the following research paper, Framing Effects and Expected Social Security Claimin...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 16, 2015 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 25904

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

I would guess that a fair number of those who currently delay until age 70 are still working and paying into the system for both Social Security and Medicare (improving the viability of those programs for everyone.) Since 1% of males and 2% of females delay until age 70 there isn't any 'fair number...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 16, 2015 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 25904

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

Hi Christine_NM, What makes the book funny is 50 pages later Larry goes out to dinner with his friend and fellow economist, Glenn Loury. You know what's going to happen, but here there is a free meal and $120,000 involved. We're starting to talk real money. :happy Glenn is an interesting guy. At his...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 16, 2015 6:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 25904

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

Here's part of a table from Get What's Yours . This is a table showing at what age men claimed SS in 2012. The top row is age of claimant The second row is % of claimants at each age 62 63 64 65 66 DI* 67-69 70 38 6 7 12 18 16 2 1 *DI - Disability payments are automatically converted to retirement p...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 16, 2015 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 25904

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

TomatoTomahto wrote:
dodecahedron wrote:ESPlanner software is apparently a labor of love, according to Larry.

As someone who developed software for 30+ years, I can see it -- ESPlanner is quite an achievement. If I had been involved, I'd be very proud.

:thumbsup :thumbsup

BobK
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 16, 2015 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 25904

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

I see Get What's Yours is currently also the best selling book at Barnes & Noble. I would never have thought that a book on SS claiming strategies would be the #1 selling book in America for at least a period of several days. :shock: Amazing :!: This must be many viewers of the PBS Newshour buyi...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 16, 2015 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 25904

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

Hi L, This morning I took my wife to the hospital for her chemotherapy and we started a conversation with a woman being infused in the next chair. The conversation turned to the book I was reading and I said that it was a fairly humorous read for such a dry topic. Here, read the first couple of page...
by bobcat2
Sun Mar 15, 2015 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 242
Views: 25904

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

This book has really hit a chord with America. Currently at Amazon Get What's Yours is the overall #1 selling book, not just the #1 selling book in finance and economics. Amazing :!: :o

Congrats to the authors. :sharebeer

BobK
by bobcat2
Sat Mar 14, 2015 5:02 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 37
Views: 5604

Next meeting is on the 22nd, NOT the 15th

I have just approved a new member at DC Bogleheads. The reason the person gave for wanting to join now is to attend tomorrow's meeting. :shock: :oops: So once again the local moderators are sending a reminder. This month we are NOT meeting on the third Sunday, March 15. Instead we are meeting the fo...

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