Search found 4306 matches

by bobcat2
Fri Jul 03, 2015 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: excellent summary of the Greek crisis by U of Chicago Professor
Replies: 44
Views: 6537

Re: excellent summary of the Greek crisis by U of Chicago Professor

Krugman says the Euro, at least for Greece, was a mistake from day 1. Krugman argues that if you're not going to have fiscal integration and labor mobility throughout the Eurozone, then a country needs the ability to devalue its currency. Now several posters on this thread have apparently taken voc...
by bobcat2
Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puerto Rico Governor Says Island’s Debts Are ‘Not Payable’
Replies: 37
Views: 3066

Puerto Rico Governor Says Island’s Debts Are ‘Not Payable’

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] The governor of Puerto Rico has decided that the island cannot pay back more than $70 billion in debt, setting up an unprecedented financial crisis that could rock the municipal bond market and lead to higher borrowing costs for governments acr...
by bobcat2
Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding debt markets
Replies: 5
Views: 645

Re: Understanding debt markets

Hat tip to veteran economics journalist [url]David Warsh[/url] for calling Holmstrom's article to my attention. In a similar vein, Warsh also recommends Yale professor Gary Gorton's Misunderstanding Financial Crises: Why we don't see them coming , a book I am planning to read as soon as summer hour...
by bobcat2
Sun Jun 28, 2015 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]
Replies: 155
Views: 14303

Re: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]

One thing slightly unsettling about the current European crisis is that 101 years ago on this date Archduke Ferdinand and his wife were shot dead in Bosnia, a small relatively unimportant country in southern Europe. It is now said (see, for example, some of the above posts made today in this thread)...
by bobcat2
Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]
Replies: 155
Views: 14303

Re: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]

One of the best places to keep up on the Eurozone crisis is the special report section on the crisis in the Guardian . Here is a link. http://www.theguardian.com/business/debt-crisis Pay special attention to the Eurozone Crisis Live subsection of the report. Here is a link for the subsection. http:/...
by bobcat2
Fri Jun 26, 2015 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads are more aggressive...
Replies: 57
Views: 6009

Re: Bogleheads are more aggressive...

With sufficient pension and SS income some BHs could afford to take more risk or could be investing for their heirs. With sufficient pension and SS income some BHs can take less risk to reach retirement income goals and invest safely for bequests to heirs. :) I suspect Bogleheads invest more aggres...
by bobcat2
Tue Jun 16, 2015 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LastPass.com Breach
Replies: 153
Views: 12583

Re: LastPass.com Breach

I use LastPass with YubiKey Authentication. That seems fairly secure to me.

BobK
by bobcat2
Wed Jun 10, 2015 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insightful paper on Risk- highly recommend for new investors
Replies: 21
Views: 3007

Re: Insightful paper on Risk- highly recommend for new investors

Yes, it awfully tempting to assume a normal or log-normal (or some other) distribution, for then you can measure the standard deviation and make all sorts of pronouncements on probable outcomes. Unfortunately, for financial markets, the distribution is unknown, and you cannot connect volatility (no...
by bobcat2
Wed Jun 10, 2015 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insightful paper on Risk- highly recommend for new investors
Replies: 21
Views: 3007

Re: Insightful paper on Risk- highly recommend for new investors

Paul, The measurement of something is not the same as the thing itself. A sphygmometer reading measures high blood pressure. But a sphygmometer reading is not the meaning or definition of high blood pressure. Standard deviation (volatility) measures investing risk, but it is not the meaning or defin...
by bobcat2
Wed Jun 10, 2015 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insightful paper on Risk- highly recommend for new investors
Replies: 21
Views: 3007

Re: Insightful paper on Risk- highly recommend for new investors

I wrote. It is true that volatility ( standard deviation) is a favored metric for measuring investment risk. pkcrafter thinks he is disagreeing with me by writing. As to Marks using volatility as a measure of risk, it has been, and still is, quite common. Maybe it's now judged to be incorrect, but i...
by bobcat2
Wed Jun 10, 2015 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Insightful paper on Risk- highly recommend for new investors
Replies: 21
Views: 3007

Re: Insightful paper on Risk- highly recommend for new investors

According to Howard Marks, “Volatility is the academic’s choice for defining and measuring risk.” This is not true. Given that this is Marks’ central thesis in his memo, it makes the entire memo suspect. It is true that volatility ( standard deviation) is a favored metric for measuring investment ri...
by bobcat2
Sat May 30, 2015 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Jeff Brown on retirement planning
Replies: 1
Views: 621

Jeff Brown on retirement planning

Wharton finance professor Kent Smetters interviews retirement expert Jeff Brown on planning for retirement. Jeff Brown is Professor of Finance and Director of the Center for Business and Public Policy at the University of Illinois’ College of Business. He is a Research Associate of the National Bure...
by bobcat2
Fri May 29, 2015 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Single Premium Immediate Annuities be better with higher interest rates?
Replies: 17
Views: 1840

Re: Will Single Premium Immediate Annuities be better with higher interest rates?

learning_head wrote:What about CPI-adjusted ones? Would they be affected one way or another with higher (nominal) interest rates?

Real life annuities (CPI-adjusted ones) will be affected by changes in real interest rates rather than changes in nominal interest rates.

BobK
by bobcat2
Fri May 29, 2015 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Single Premium Immediate Annuities be better with higher interest rates?
Replies: 17
Views: 1840

Re: Will Single Premium Immediate Annuities be better with higher interest rates?

Roughly, the payout rate on a fixed payout life annuity is 1/remaining-life-expectancy + 10-year-Treasure-rate. I don't believe that's quite right. The rough & ready formula for a life annuity payout is instead, payout = 1/remaining-life-expectancy + (10-year-Treasure-rate)/2 In words, it's hal...
by bobcat2
Sun May 24, 2015 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Nash killed in car crash
Replies: 11
Views: 3485

John Nash killed in car crash

One of the great minds in economic and mathematics theory, John Nash, died in a car crash Saturday on the New Jersey Turnpike. Both he and his wife were killed in the crash involving the taxi they were riding in. Nash received a Nobel Prize in economics for his seminal work in game theory. Just this...
by bobcat2
Fri May 22, 2015 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 3035

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

Please, that is like being asked what to invest in for growth and talking about REITS, but leaving out equities, and then explaining that over sights happen when one only has 26 minutes. :D BobK Disagree, "most" commentators/pundits just refer to bonds generally and don't make the distinc...
by bobcat2
Thu May 21, 2015 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 3035

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

In response to what to do about a surge of inflation Asness said only that one should invest in commodities. He left out real bonds. In fairness to Mr. Asness, it was a 26 minute interview and he was asked several questions. He can't be faulted for omitting something because of the limited time he h...
by bobcat2
Thu May 21, 2015 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 3035

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

Perhaps because TIPS didn't exist during most inflation shocks. We know what they should do, but reality is sometimes different. That said, if anything one might imagine people piling into TIPS and bidding down the yields, giving you returns above inflation in the short term. Real bonds existed in ...
by bobcat2
Thu May 21, 2015 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 3035

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

Hi nedsaid, With regard to inflation shocks Asness notes that is really bad for bonds and not good for stocks at least in the SR. He then claims that commodities are the only good asset class, if there is an inflation shock. Apparently, Asness has never heard of real bonds such as TIPS. :) BobK This...
by bobcat2
Thu May 21, 2015 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 3035

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

With regard to inflation shocks Asness notes that is really bad for bonds and not good for stocks at least in the SR. He then claims that commodities are the only good asset class, if there is an inflation shock. Apparently, Asness has never heard of real bonds such as TIPS. :)

BobK
by bobcat2
Wed May 20, 2015 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your thoughts about Peter Schiff's doomsday prediction
Replies: 39
Views: 7130

Re: Your thoughts about Peter Schiff's doomsday prediction

Here are several predictions Schiff has made in the last several years. The accuracy of these predictions has been dismal. 1) Dec 2006: Peter Schiff on Fox News said inflation and interest rates would go up in 2007, 2008, and 2009. This didn't happen. 2) Jan 2009: Peter Schiff said in US News that t...
by bobcat2
Mon May 18, 2015 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack
Replies: 36
Views: 3035

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness: Guest appearance on WealthTrack

Mr Asness has been in the news a lot lately expressing his views on several subjects. Here are two of my favorite recent articles about Cliff and his opinions on subjects that have at least a substantial financial component. The last sentence of this first article is classic. [OT link removed by adm...
by bobcat2
Tue May 12, 2015 9:08 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 37
Views: 6152

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Here is additional information about Sunday's meeting location. The Liberty Center high rise condo/apartment complex at 888 North Quincy Street, Arlington, on the west side of the street, is located two blocks south of the Ballston library also on North Quincy. (The library is on the east side of No...
by bobcat2
Mon May 11, 2015 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where can I find total returns for Japan?
Replies: 15
Views: 836

Re: Where can I find total returns for Japan?

What is the global equity since 1990? Going all the way back to 1900 doesn't make sense, not only because the world is incredibly different, but also because only 3 people in the world today were alive then. We go back to 1900 because that's the longest period for which we have reliable data from m...
by bobcat2
Sun May 10, 2015 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where can I find total returns for Japan?
Replies: 15
Views: 836

Re: Where can I find total returns for Japan?

Had the person invested solely in bonds, or simply heavily in bonds, they would have done quite well. :D I wouldn't exactly call a 4-5% annual return doing quite well. It's rather depressing actually. From Credit Suisse Yearbook of global equity returns. real annual global equity returns 1900-2014 ...
by bobcat2
Sun May 10, 2015 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where can I find total returns for Japan?
Replies: 15
Views: 836

Re: Where can I find total returns for Japan?

I was really curious about this, so I calculated it. Here is the setup: Someone invested 75400.50¥ at the beginning of 1990. I chose this number because it's the equivalent of $1000 USD at the end of 2014. The reference to USD is purely to give you an idea of how much the amount is. All my calculat...
by bobcat2
Sun May 10, 2015 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where can I find total returns for Japan?
Replies: 15
Views: 836

Re: Where can I find total returns for Japan?

From Triumph of the Optimists here are the equity and bond real returns for Japan for the eleven year period from 1990-2000. stocks annual geometric real return -7.1% bonds annual geometric real return 5.4% From latest Credit Suisse Yearbook update of Triumph of the Optimists here are the equity and...
by bobcat2
Sun May 10, 2015 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle possible mistake? Discussion [on age-based portfolios]
Replies: 67
Views: 7394

Re: Bogle possible mistake? Discussion [on age-based portfolios]

BTW investors in some countries have had very long periods of negative returns had they held the global portfolio. I couldn't seem to find anything on this. Maybe you could post some links? See the paper, Irrational Optimism , by the authors of Triumph of the Optimists . From the Abstract . We addr...
by bobcat2
Sun May 10, 2015 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle possible mistake? Discussion [on age-based portfolios]
Replies: 67
Views: 7394

Re: Bogle possible mistake? Discussion [on age-based portfolios]

backpacker wrote. So why think the stock returns of the defeated axis powers tell us anything about the safety of our stocks? If you hold a global portfolio, there probably is some chance that some country in which you own stocks will lose a war and be occupied. But that's what diversification is f...
by bobcat2
Sat May 09, 2015 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle possible mistake? Discussion [on age-based portfolios]
Replies: 67
Views: 7394

Re: Bogle possible mistake? Discussion [on age-based portfolios]

backpacker wrote. I was responding to a particular argument that tries to use short-term options to argue that owning stocks for decades is risky. Bodie was arguing using standard option theory that stocks are risky when held for a long time. Option theory is option theory, regardless of the time p...
by bobcat2
Sat May 09, 2015 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle possible mistake? Discussion [on age-based portfolios]
Replies: 67
Views: 7394

Re: John Bogle possible mistake? Discussion

It is true that if we compare a one week put to a 24 month put, the price of the puts will tell us that risk over 24 months is greater than the risk over a week. That makes sense. Economic crises usually take time to develop. The 2008 crash unfolded over months. It didn't happen in a week. But from...
by bobcat2
Thu Apr 30, 2015 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reverse Mortgages-now better, but harder to get
Replies: 18
Views: 1838

Re: Reverse Mortgages-now better, but harder to get

Whenever I see financial institutions pushing hard on reverse mortgages I know in my mind that it's not because it's good for me, but they do so because it's good for THEM. Same with annuities... good for the salesman but not necessarily good for you. There's no free lunch, is there ? ? It would se...
by bobcat2
Thu Apr 30, 2015 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reverse Mortgages-now better, but harder to get
Replies: 18
Views: 1838

Reverse Mortgages-now better, but harder to get

New federal rules that kicked in on April 27, 2015 may make it harder for some people to qualify for reverse mortgages. But they’ll also make it more likely that those who do receive reverse mortgages will have fewer worries about them. “I think these changes are positive overall,” says Phil Stevens...
by bobcat2
Tue Apr 28, 2015 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NPV of Pension in the Retirement Portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 1144

Re: NPV of Pension in the Retirement Portfolio

It never occurred to me to count our pension as part of our retirement portfolio. So I calculated its NPV and played with firecalc adding in our pension as social security. I like what I see. The NPV of our pension = 10% of our 60/35/5/0 retirement portfolio. Adding the pension would make it 55/30/...
by bobcat2
Mon Apr 27, 2015 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help Choosing Survivor Pension Option (50% vs 100%)
Replies: 25
Views: 1993

Re: Help Choosing Survivor Pension Option (50% vs 100%)

This advice is for my father in law, who is relying on me for some financial help. Union worker, he will retire in about a year at 62. His wife is a year older, each has a mother still alive in their early 90s. They will need the pension to live on so the decision will have impact on their finances...
by bobcat2
Tue Apr 21, 2015 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I saving too much for retirement?
Replies: 27
Views: 4893

Re: Am I saving too much for retirement?

I am sure that it is never possible to save too much, blah blah blah. Of course it's possible to save too much. Some people live like paupers while working in hopes of living like princes and princesses in old age. This is not a very reasonable way to plan ones financial life. There is a difference...
by bobcat2
Thu Apr 16, 2015 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Count Pension + SS as part of the Bond portion of AA?
Replies: 31
Views: 2315

Re: Count Pension + SS as part of the Bond portion of AA?

retiredjg asks the following question of Alec. But what is the purpose of calculating the present value of an income stream if you are not going to do anything with the number? I'm not Alec, but here is my answer for people who use this calculation in order to place the PV of SS and DB pensions in ...
by bobcat2
Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Count Pension + SS as part of the Bond portion of AA?
Replies: 31
Views: 2315

Re: Count Pension + SS as part of the Bond portion of AA?

I don't see anything wrong with calculating the present value of the income streams from pensions and social security. Actuaries do this all the time. However, after one does this is where I think people run into problems. For example, let's say that after considering the prevent values of your mot...
by bobcat2
Wed Apr 15, 2015 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 244
Views: 28353

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

Because my interest is more financial than academic, I am hedging my claiming strategy instead of relying on simple Social Security calculators. This may make you feel better, but it is nothing more than guessing. The calculators will more than likely give you a more accurate prediction. If you rea...
by bobcat2
Sun Apr 12, 2015 10:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need some help with SPIA choices
Replies: 6
Views: 805

Re: Need some help with SPIA choices

Hi guys, So my aunt is thinking of annuitizing a small part of her portfolio so that she can be less concerned about spending down the rest of it, as well as feeling more confident in a higher equity allocation. What are the recommended companies to use? If one was going to annuitize a lot of money...
by bobcat2
Sat Apr 11, 2015 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Social Security Facts
Replies: 13
Views: 1641

Re: "New" Social Security Facts

Bogleheads have forever recommended taking Social Security at age 70 because of the inflation indexed pension it represents. There are two new reasons (at least new to me) to delay the benefits until age 70. Today's USA Today online newspaper had an article on Social Security benefits and what goes...
by bobcat2
Sun Apr 05, 2015 9:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 931
Views: 147505

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

I watched Robert Altman's The Player this morning (for perhaps the 10th time). One of the best films ever made about Hollywood. Also, it probably has the most A-List celebrity cameos in the history of film. When The Player first came out I really liked it and recommended it to a friend. A few weeks...
by bobcat2
Sat Apr 04, 2015 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do CPI-Indexed Single-Premium Deferred Annuities exist?
Replies: 27
Views: 2341

Do real longevity annuities exist?

CPI-Indexed Single-Premium Deferred Annuities What a mouthful :D I assume you are referring to real longevity annuities, sometimes called real delayed annuities. I am not aware of any true real longevity annuities having ever been offered. I believe, at least for a while when longevity annuities we...
by bobcat2
Thu Apr 02, 2015 9:44 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 37
Views: 6152

Re: The May meeting & other administrative stuff

One person volunteered to schedule the meeting room in his apartment building in the Ballston area for the meeting in May. We agreed to try that. He has attended several meetings and I should know his name and his Boglehead handle, but I don't. If he sees this post, I would appreciate it if he woul...
by bobcat2
Wed Apr 01, 2015 11:47 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 37
Views: 6152

The May meeting & other administrative stuff

Administrative issues that were discussed at the March meeting of DC Bogleheads. One person had emailed requesting some or all meetings be held on Saturdays rather than Sundays. As best I recall the consensus at the meeting was that most people prefer Sunday over Saturday and holding some of the me...
by bobcat2
Wed Apr 01, 2015 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can consumers assess the value of life annuities?
Replies: 7
Views: 849

Re: Can consumers assess the value of life annuities?

" The short answer is NO! " I doubt you are surprised, Bob. The 401K mentality coupled with SWR silliness prevent lots of folks from even considering (not to say valuing) an income stream. The great push is for people to find the infamous "NUMBER," meaning a pile of money, rathe...
by bobcat2
Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Final Say on Spending Rules" - L. Siegel
Replies: 17
Views: 2831

Re: The final word on portfolio spending rate in retirement

There is an earlier thread on this topic here.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=162457

This thread should be merged with the earlier thread.

BobK
by bobcat2
Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can consumers assess the value of life annuities?
Replies: 7
Views: 849

Can consumers assess the value of life annuities?

Are most Americans capable of accurately assessing the value of life annuities? The short answer is NO! The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College has just published a brief on this issue where respondents were asked to value hypothetical changes in their monthly Social Security benefit. I...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 30, 2015 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ad Blockers
Replies: 41
Views: 3269

Re: Ad Blockers

Adblock Plus used to be good but they have sold out recently, allowing ad networks to pay them to be ''whitelisted'' and get ads through. (They claim they do this very rarely but in reality hundreds of networks and sites are whitelisted, and even if they scaled it back, why use an adblocker that do...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 30, 2015 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ad Blockers
Replies: 41
Views: 3269

Re: Ad Blockers

For both Firefox and Chrome there is uBlock. But for Chrome alone there is µMatrix. 8-) µMatrix is like NoScript, but without the headaches. Just be careful when using uBlock and µMatrix together in Chrome you don't repeat the blocking lists. I use the blocking lists in µMatrix and turn any off in u...

Go to advanced search