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Re: TIPS Yield Crash November 2008 - Why?

From Greg Mankiw's blog on 12/3/2008. According to U.S. Treasury data, the five-year real interest rate from the TIPS market on 11/28/08 was 4.17 percent. Yesterday, it was 2.03 percent. That is a huge change over only a few days. What happened? It appears to be, in large measure, a figment of data ...
by bobcat2
Thu Feb 26, 2015 5:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Crash November 2008 - Why?
Replies: 16
Views: 1045

Re: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?

I see that Get What's Yours is currently the #1 Best Seller in Business & Money at Amazon and the hard copy edition is out of stock, which figures if it is the #1 seller. :)

BobK
by bobcat2
Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kotlikoff: When Should you Take Social Security?
Replies: 9
Views: 1769

Re: Risk vs Uncertainty

pkcrafter wrote. I believe the distinctions in definitions (of risk & uncertainty) is still worth knowing. HI Paul, I also believe the meaning of the word risk is important. Here is the meaning of the word risk from several dictionaries and an encyclopedia. The possibility of loss or injury - Me...
by bobcat2
Thu Feb 12, 2015 8:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk vs Uncertainty
Replies: 19
Views: 1362

Re: Risk vs Uncertainty

Hi pkcrafter, You are referring to the definitions of risk and uncertainty that Frank Knight promulgated in his 1921 book, Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit. Knight distinguished uncertainty from risk. He died over 40 years ago. You are referring to the book that he wrote about a 100 years that was dela...
by bobcat2
Thu Feb 12, 2015 1:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk vs Uncertainty
Replies: 19
Views: 1362

Re: Is Risk Real?

A risky situation is one where the outcome is not certain. Risk management is making choices under conditions of uncertainty. There is no risk to be managed if the outcomes are certain. If there were no uncertainty, then there would be no risk and the field of finance would be essentially reduced to...
by bobcat2
Tue Feb 10, 2015 3:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Risk Real?
Replies: 74
Views: 3817

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

The Alexandria public library has meeting rooms available to patrons and their organizations for meetings of an educational, cultural or civic nature. However, to reserve the meeting rooms you must be " a library cardholder in good standing (no fines or fees on your account) who lives in, or o...
by bobcat2
Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:50 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 28
Views: 3854

Re: "how to measure risk?"

When has the global equity market gone down and stayed down? The answer is never. It can't happen if society is to continue as most of the world is capitalistic, i.e. those who provide the capital are the ones who profit. Myth meet reality. From the point of view of a US investor, who is invested i...
by bobcat2
Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "how to measure risk?"
Replies: 35
Views: 1825

Re: "how to measure risk?"

How to measure portfolio risk. Portfolio risk (uncertainty) is typically measured by annual standard deviation (SD). This measure of risk is often called volatility. Its value is usually found either by taking the standard deviation (SD) of annual returns or annualizing the SD of monthly returns. S...
by bobcat2
Wed Feb 04, 2015 11:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "how to measure risk?"
Replies: 35
Views: 1825

Re: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold

Hi nedsaid, My post where I had the VIX at 30% on a particular day was purely a hypothetical example of a day when the VIX is high. Such a day would be 50% above the average amount of volatility in the stock market. In reality, I don’t believe there has been a single day in the last three years when...
by bobcat2
Thu Jan 29, 2015 3:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold
Replies: 52
Views: 3485

Re: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold

Hi Beliavsky, Bobcat, I'm pleased to see another GARCH advocate on the board -- I have discussed GARCH models too. I began using ARCH models in early 1986. That year I met with Rob Engle and others including Clive Granger and Mark Watson at I believe three workshops on new time series modeling techn...
by bobcat2
Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold
Replies: 52
Views: 3485

Re: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold

nedsaid wrote. But isn't this stating the obvious? We know the markets are nervous. There are pretty big world events going on now. The Greek election and nervousness about the Euro. The Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris. Instability in the Middle East. A whiff of deflation in Europe. All this after a ...
by bobcat2
Thu Jan 29, 2015 1:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold
Replies: 52
Views: 3485

Re: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold

nedsaid writes. Where I disagree is that the time to "panic" is when the market is nearing new highs. I don't get the logic of selling after the market has already fallen 15%. Is the VIX indicator that infallible? My take is that an investor should Where I disagree is that the time to &quo...
by bobcat2
Wed Jan 28, 2015 3:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold
Replies: 52
Views: 3485

Re: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold

There are those who rebalance when stocks have fallen and the percentage of stocks in the portfolio is some percentage below their target equity percentage. Buy on the dip. This is a market strategy that doubles down on risk when markets are declining and typically market risk measures are high. Wha...
by bobcat2
Mon Jan 26, 2015 9:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold
Replies: 52
Views: 3485

Re: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold

Here's a clip of Rob Engle discussing market volatility last October with Fox News. Engle's real time assessment of the slight hiccup in volatility in October looks quite sound in retrospect today. http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/3849629094001/nobel-prize-winner-in-volatility-most-worried-about-euro-...
by bobcat2
Mon Jan 26, 2015 9:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold
Replies: 52
Views: 3485

Re: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold

First, bobcat2, the big question. In your opinion, are we in a volatility cluster now? Should we be cutting back on stock allocation now? How does an ordinary guy know? First of all, I wouldn't consider cutting back until the market has dropped at least 15% and the market certainly has not done tha...
by bobcat2
Mon Jan 26, 2015 8:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold
Replies: 52
Views: 3485

Re: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold

nedsaid wrote. It seems to me that market volatility can turn on a dime, it just seems too short term to base an asset allocation decision on. Market volatility usually doesn't change on a dime. That's why it's called "volatility clustering." Unusually large market moves in either directio...
by bobcat2
Mon Jan 26, 2015 7:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold
Replies: 52
Views: 3485

Re: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold

In any case, this is when Lo gave that interview. The chart is the VIX index, which is supposed to be a measure of "volatility." Source http://s5.postimg.org/g8xa0wrw7/lo_and_vix.jpg By the way, "Most of us didn't sign up for the kind of volatility we're seeing right now?" What ...
by bobcat2
Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold
Replies: 52
Views: 3485

Re: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold

A Lo strategy for an individual investor would look something like this. If the market falls at least 15% and the VIX is high (say 28 or more) sell some percent of your equity holdings (perhaps 10% or 15%). If the market continues to drop and has fallen say more than 25% and the VIX remains high, or...
by bobcat2
Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold
Replies: 52
Views: 3485

Re: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold

Bobcat2 in this forum introduced me to the concept of volatility clustering . I liked the comment "I understand volatility clustering, but I don't see where you tell me what I'm supposed to do about it. Can I time the market with it?" As I read on in that thread I am not at all sure I lik...
by bobcat2
Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold
Replies: 52
Views: 3485

Meeting today at 3PM

Time, directions, parking, etc. for today's meeting (1/18/2015). We meet in the second floor meeting room at the Arlington, VA Central Library, 1015 N. Quincy Street, Arlington, VA 22201. The library is between the Virginia Square and Ballston stations on the Metro Orange/Silver Lines. From Virginia...
by bobcat2
Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:41 am
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 28
Views: 3854

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Hi Victoria, I have scheduled the meeting room at the Ballston library for Sunday January 18 from 3-5:30 PM. I usually send out announcements on the preceding Tuesday and Friday. I don't know if something was inadvertently triggered from the past by Yahoo Groups, which sometimes seems to have a mind...
by bobcat2
Mon Jan 12, 2015 2:24 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 28
Views: 3854

Re: Why Is "Deflation" A Bad Thing??? How To Prepare/Profit

For there to be sustained deflation in an economy the price of the biggest item in that economy will almost certainly be falling. That item is wages. Either nominal wages on average will be falling, or unemployment will be growing rapidly, or some of both.

BobK
by bobcat2
Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Is "Deflation" A Bad Thing??? How To Prepare/Profit?
Replies: 87
Views: 6254

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Selma Best movie I've seen this year, and I've seen quite a few since early September. If Selma doesn't move you, you have a hard heart. I would imagine the only movie I haven't seen this year that I might think is better would be Boyhood. I have a friend Paul who is a true movie fanatic. Every year...
by bobcat2
Fri Dec 26, 2014 10:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 561
Views: 68435

Re: Comparing Results from VPW, RMD, & 4% Rule Withdrawals

I can certainly understand why it's not possible to have perfectly level real income during retirement, but I don't see why it would be undesirable. I always thought the ultimate retirement income situation would be a sufficient level of Social Security benefits, an inflation indexed private pensio...
by bobcat2
Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing Results from VPW, RMD, & 4% Rule Withdrawals
Replies: 40
Views: 2306

Re: Comparing Results from VPW, RMD, & 4% Rule Withdrawals

In retirement you want to minimize, as much as you reasonably can, year to year unplanned fluctuations in income. Obviously, people aren't going to have perfectly level real income during retirement. That is neither possible nor desirable. You also want to avoid large planned fluctuations in income ...
by bobcat2
Fri Dec 12, 2014 2:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing Results from VPW, RMD, & 4% Rule Withdrawals
Replies: 40
Views: 2306

Re: Comparing Results from VPW, RMD, & 4% Rule Withdrawals

A fluctuating income in retirement is just fine so long as it exceeds your needs by 50% or more. A portion of my own income is from a variable annuity adjusted monthly, hence never the same paycheck twice... What do you mean by your needs? Do you have an income goal or not, or are you simply talkin...
by bobcat2
Fri Dec 12, 2014 1:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing Results from VPW, RMD, & 4% Rule Withdrawals
Replies: 40
Views: 2306

Re: Comparing Results from VPW, RMD, & 4% Rule Withdrawals

The market will fluctuate and you should plan on having your income fluctuate also. Your income fluctuated all through your entire life. Retirement is no different. To ignore this reality, is to invite fear and bad planning into your retirement plan. You want to minimize the amount of fluctuation i...
by bobcat2
Fri Dec 12, 2014 1:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing Results from VPW, RMD, & 4% Rule Withdrawals
Replies: 40
Views: 2306

Re: Comparing Results from VPW, RMD, & 4% Rule Withdrawals

Let's review a simplified version of the retirement planning process. It is simplified because I am not going into the details of each step but merely acknowledge the steps you should consider leading up to retirement. Every few years prior to retirement you should also re-evaluate these steps. Ste...
by bobcat2
Fri Dec 12, 2014 1:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing Results from VPW, RMD, & 4% Rule Withdrawals
Replies: 40
Views: 2306

Re: projected income metric for portfolios

Vanguard seems to be dragging their feet a bit on this. :wink: Vanguard has filed official comments with the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) on a DOL pre-rule release that would require plan sponsors to present illustrations on participant account statements of how account balances might translate in...
by bobcat2
Mon Dec 08, 2014 11:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: projected income metric for portfolios [WSJ article]
Replies: 11
Views: 1223

Re: projected income metric for portfolios

If I am not mistaken, Robert Merton and Zvi Bodie may have mentioned this idea once or twice. :wink: :D

BobK


P.S. It's probably also worth mentioning that Merton and his mentor Paul Samuelson were advisors to TIAA-CREF back in the day.
by bobcat2
Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: projected income metric for portfolios [WSJ article]
Replies: 11
Views: 1223

Re: Retirement Planning: The View from Vanguard

OR: So, Merton and the actuaries will tell you the goal is inflation-adjusted real income. But if you talk to the typical financial planner who is running calculations, the numbers that you need to save for retirement are dramatically lower than when you assume steadily rising expenditures. Dale Th...
by bobcat2
Sun Dec 07, 2014 6:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Planning: The View from Vanguard
Replies: 8
Views: 1675

Re: Retirement Planning: The View from Vanguard

bobcat2 wrote. On whether the goal of 401k type plans should be wealth value or retirement income stream I not only couldn't follow Utkus's response, I am not certain, if he was quoted correctly , that Utkus understands what he said. :) So, Merton and the actuaries will tell you the goal is inflatio...
by bobcat2
Sun Dec 07, 2014 3:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Planning: The View from Vanguard
Replies: 8
Views: 1675

Re: Retirement Planning: The View from Vanguard

I thought Utkus was asked very good questions and sometimes he gave solid answers and sometimes he whiffed. On the whiffed side I include his weak response regarding 401k leakage, which appears to be a bigger problem than fund high expense ratios for households becoming adequately financed for retir...
by bobcat2
Sun Dec 07, 2014 1:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Planning: The View from Vanguard
Replies: 8
Views: 1675

Retirement Planning: The View from Vanguard

The dramatic shift by retirement savers to passive investing means financial advisors will spend less time in the future picking stocks, and that leads to questions about new ways to add value. Nowhere are those questions more pressing than at Vanguard, the king of passive mutual fund investing. Th...
by bobcat2
Sun Dec 07, 2014 1:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Planning: The View from Vanguard
Replies: 8
Views: 1675

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates - Is the 4% rule still good?

The 0.1% difference between the safe withdrawal method and the annuity method of estimating a savings goal isn't really a meaningful difference. The 4% safe withdrawal rate is for a 30 year period. The 3.9% annuity payout is for as long as one member of the couple lives. The annuity payout only app...
by bobcat2
Thu Nov 27, 2014 8:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates - Is the 4% rule still good?
Replies: 84
Views: 8133

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates - Is the 4% rule still good?

Rules like 4% of initial amount are IMO reasonably useful for setting goals for retirement assets/spending when pretty far away from retirement. There is a simple more accurate way to estimate the amount of wealth needed at retirement to meet your retirement income goal. Price a real life annuity f...
by bobcat2
Thu Nov 27, 2014 3:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates - Is the 4% rule still good?
Replies: 84
Views: 8133

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates - Is the 4% rule still good?

Since the 4% rule has never been good, it's hard to make much sense of the premise of this thread. The 4% rule and all its SWR variants fail two basic principles of what constitutes a sound withdrawal rate strategy. Any rule for spending out of a retirement account should adhere to the following tw...
by bobcat2
Thu Nov 27, 2014 11:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates - Is the 4% rule still good?
Replies: 84
Views: 8133

Re: What is the present value of future payments?

One stream is inflation adjusted (real payments) one is a nominal payment. Both go on for 30 years. I assumed each these payments are risk free so the appropriate discount rate is inflation. ...Is this correct? No. The appropriate discount rate is not the inflation rate. The appropriate 30 year ris...
by bobcat2
Wed Nov 26, 2014 2:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the present value of future payments?
Replies: 8
Views: 767

Re: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?

There is probably about a 10% chance that LT bonds will outperform stocks over the next 30 years. We can argue til the cows come home whether it's really closer to 8% or 12% - that's not important. What is important is that it is almost surely the case that if bonds outperform stocks over the next 3...
by bobcat2
Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?
Replies: 65
Views: 6193

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Time, directions, parking, etc. for Sunday's meeting (11/16/2014). Our next meeting is tomorrow (Sunday, November 16, 3:00-5:30) in the second floor meeting room at the Arlington, VA Central Library, 1015 N. Quincy Street, Arlington, VA 22201; this is the same place as our two previous meetings in J...
by bobcat2
Sat Nov 15, 2014 9:59 am
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 28
Views: 3854

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

This Sunday there will be two presentations, which will likely be very different from one another in both in subject matter and tone. David will be making a presentation that is particularly pertinent and timely during the present sign up season on High Deductible Health Plans and Health Savings Acc...
by bobcat2
Tue Nov 11, 2014 9:05 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 28
Views: 3854

Re: what is risk?

Paul, You are unbelievable. You write the following. I don't have any objection to your academic definitions, but I do question the usefulness to the average investor. Some alternative thinking... http://glynholton.com/wp-content/uploads/2006/10/risk.pdf If we go to the above article on your suppose...
by bobcat2
Sun Sep 28, 2014 4:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is risk?
Replies: 116
Views: 4937

Re: what is risk?

Merriam-Webster dictionary definition of risk (noun) - -the possibility that something bad or unpleasant (such as an injury or a loss) will happen - someone or something that may cause something bad or unpleasant to happen - a person or thing that someone judges to be a good or bad choice for insura...
by bobcat2
Sun Sep 28, 2014 11:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is risk?
Replies: 116
Views: 4937

Re: what is risk?

Risk is uncertainty that matters to peoples welfare. If you and I flip a coin a 100 times at a penny a flip, there is uncertainty in the outcome but there is no risk. The financial uncertainty is trivial. If, OTOH, we flip the same coin a 100 times at $5,000 a flip, that uncertain outcome is risky. ...
by bobcat2
Sun Sep 28, 2014 11:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is risk?
Replies: 116
Views: 4937

Re: what is risk?

Which is riskier: 1) Certain to miss your goal by a large margin. 2) May miss your goal by a large margin, may exceed your goal by a large margin. Under Bob's definition, 2 is riskier - it has more "Uncertainty of outcomes". I find it hard to believe anyone would prefer 1. If so, does tha...
by bobcat2
Sun Sep 28, 2014 10:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is risk?
Replies: 116
Views: 4937

Re: what is risk?

Sharpe has said risk is the probability of doing badly in bad times. Which comes closer to your idea of risk: your portfolio doing badly in bad times (not having money when you need it) or not being certain what your portfolio will be worth at some point in the future? There is a difference between...
by bobcat2
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is risk?
Replies: 116
Views: 4937

Re: what is risk?

The meaning of the word "risk" in financial economics is probably influenced by Frank Knight's 1921 book, Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit. NO NO NO !!! Frank Knight distinguished uncertainty from risk. Knight died over 40 years ago. You are referring to a book that Knight wrote about a 100 ...
by bobcat2
Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is risk?
Replies: 116
Views: 4937

Re: what is risk?

I fail to understand why so many posters at Bogleheads have so much trouble understanding the common definition of risk in finance and economics. This isn't hard guys. :oops: Here risk is defined in several leading economics and finance textbooks. Risk is uncertainty that "matters" because...
by bobcat2
Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is risk?
Replies: 116
Views: 4937

Re: Using Your House for Income in Retirement

How are reverse mortgage payments accounted for in Social Security/ACA income determination? That could have an impact on the sell and rent vs reverse mortgage decision. The money you get from a reverse mortgage is a loan, so it’s tax-free. It does not affect costs pegged to your “income,” such as ...
by bobcat2
Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using Your House for Income in Retirement
Replies: 19
Views: 1698

Re: Using Your House for Income in Retirement

Could reverse mortgages help many elderly Americans? Let's look at some data. US Median home equity and financial assets, two-person households (thousands $) Home Equity Financial Assets Age 65-74 150 125 75-84 160 115 85+ 150 100 BobK
by bobcat2
Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using Your House for Income in Retirement
Replies: 19
Views: 1698
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