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Re: Need Some Advice-Recovered from Great Recession

I had a very positive condo owning experience. Bought in 2009 for 175k. Sold in 2013 for 210k. Condo is worth almost 250k today. i was in a newer building (built around 2003) and HOA fees were just over 300 per month. This was for a 1 bed apartment (850 sq ft). There is less privacy, sometimes it wa...
by bigred77
Thu Mar 26, 2015 9:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Some Advice-Recovered from Great Recession
Replies: 12
Views: 1641

Re: Should a BH investor never use futures/options?

Whats with all the derivatives talk on bogleheads recently?? A.) The vast majority of bogleheads have no need for this nor should they utilize options or futures. B.) They can be useful as hedging instruments, usually for business purposes. C.) They can be used to speculate, if you want to and under...
by bigred77
Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should a BH investor never use futures/options?
Replies: 58
Views: 3238

Re: U.S. cash pouring into international

I stay true to my AA and do not "tactically" overweight sectors or countries...

That being said...

With Valuations where they are abroad (vs the US market) and with the dollar being as strong as it is right now... makes alot of sense to me...
by bigred77
Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. cash pouring into international
Replies: 23
Views: 2423

Re: Help w/ adult child hard-wired for poor financial decisi

Many people that age need to get a kick in the pants from "life" before they start to "get it".

Shes still really young. I would remain supportive and keep encouraging positive steps in the right direction.
by bigred77
Tue Mar 24, 2015 1:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help w/ adult child hard-wired for poor financial decisions?
Replies: 45
Views: 4648

Re: [New Member Observations- Covered Calls, Financial Advis

I think we got offtrack with the discussion of LTCM. My recollection is they were caught on the wrong side of a convergence trade in foreign bonds which ultimately led to their downfall. It was not selling covered calls on something like SPY. Uncle Pennybags, I understand you dislike the strategy be...
by bigred77
Mon Mar 23, 2015 12:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [New Member Observations- Covered Calls, Financial Advisors]
Replies: 221
Views: 15683

Re: Help w/ my mom's financial situation

I am in a VERY similar situation to the OP. - medical problems, especially from long time smokers, can come fast and hard. my mom is on SSDI at 59. - My mom is trying to make it on a paid off condo, freshly bought car, and 1200 a month in SSDI. She has maybe 50k in IRAs. She always complains she doe...
by bigred77
Fri Mar 20, 2015 7:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help w/ my mom's financial situation
Replies: 18
Views: 1734

Re: Lowest income at which able to Max 401k and IRA

I would immediately switch from a Roth 401k to a traditional 401k in your situation. Just doing that and then paying off the car note at your present income would free up TONS of cashflow. if you switch jobs for a paycut you will simply have to reduce your lifestyle, your savings, or a combination o...
by bigred77
Thu Mar 19, 2015 5:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lowest income at which able to Max 401k and IRA
Replies: 31
Views: 2620

Re: Can we afford a condo?

As long as you don't plan on retiring immediately upon purchase I think you have no problems.

If you can commit to working 2 more years I would tell you to go ahead and buy it.
by bigred77
Thu Mar 19, 2015 4:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we afford a condo?
Replies: 16
Views: 1968

Re: Observations from a first time poster, long time reader.

For those who actually understand what a covered call is, please explain how the pennies/steamroller analogy applies. The steamroller is the stock market crash. Normally we agree to incorporate it into portfolios because the rewards are equally outsized. But, when we agree to limit the rewards in e...
by bigred77
Thu Mar 19, 2015 3:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [New Member Observations- Covered Calls, Financial Advisors]
Replies: 221
Views: 15683

Re: Experience with PenFed refinance

I wanted to bump this older thread to see if anyone has had any experience with Penfed refinancings lately. I was just ultimately denied from a refinance with another company and it was a complete and utter nightmare. I had a bad appraisal but i still was plenty under 80% LTV. The loan was approved,...
by bigred77
Thu Mar 19, 2015 1:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Experience with PenFed refinance
Replies: 75
Views: 5527

Re: Interest rate hike signaled

I have a watchlist of every single Vanguard ETF, including 52 different ETFs. Literally every single one of them is up right now. Every single one. How is this even possible? My guess: A lot of people were moving to cash until after the announcement. Those people plowed cash right back into both eq...
by bigred77
Wed Mar 18, 2015 2:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rate hike signaled
Replies: 25
Views: 2234

Re: Observations from a first time poster, long time reader.

- If we assume efficient markets, this is a zero sum strategy. I think most academics would tell you that on average, you would have a string of up years (vs just holding the ETF as a benchmark) and then lag the benchmark the following year by enough to basically equal the benchmark, net of transact...
by bigred77
Wed Mar 18, 2015 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [New Member Observations- Covered Calls, Financial Advisors]
Replies: 221
Views: 15683

Re: Did you buy a house because of low interest rate?

I upgraded earlier then I would have and bought much more house than I would have due to low interest rates. It worked out well for me. I understand this was not a risk free decision. I have no problem borrowing (to buy assets) when interest rates are low and I have no problem lending when interest ...
by bigred77
Tue Mar 17, 2015 11:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did you buy a house because of low interest rate?
Replies: 25
Views: 1748

Re: Options Trading - very simple intro book wanted

I have a textbook from an old finance class that I thought was pretty well organized and a relatively easy read.

Options, Futures, and other Derivatives
John C Hull
by bigred77
Fri Mar 13, 2015 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Options Trading - very simple intro book wanted
Replies: 15
Views: 1293

Re: If 2% is real, we are . . . . ?

Understand that Dr Bernstein is only relaying his CALCULATIONS for EXPECTED returns... This is simply him taking calculated values and plugging them into formulas that the majority of finance academics accept to be the best models we have... Most would agree with his calculated values... HOWEVER: - ...
by bigred77
Wed Mar 11, 2015 3:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If 2% is real, we are . . . . ?
Replies: 63
Views: 6239

Re: The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Ret

Its human nature to look for patterns in random data.

I have to think at least some of this article comes from this tendency.
by bigred77
Tue Mar 10, 2015 10:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns
Replies: 19
Views: 3185

Re: How to create a 3% return portfolio?

You seem like an ideal candidate for an immediate annuity if your over the age of 60 or so. I would recommend you look into those more closely and/or tell us why you dislike them so much. 30/70 is not an inappropriate AA for you but I don't necessarily think it's optimal either if you can live on 3%...
by bigred77
Mon Mar 09, 2015 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to create a 3% return portfolio?
Replies: 52
Views: 5477

Re: Re-balancing with a brokerage link 401k

I have the same with my 401k at fidelity. I agree you need to revisit your time frames for "rebalancing". I only do it once per year. You can also choose your specific "lots" when you choose to sell and avoind any early redemption fee (unless your selling the whole fund and you m...
by bigred77
Mon Mar 09, 2015 10:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Re-balancing with a brokerage link 401k
Replies: 6
Views: 507

Re: Does My Daughter Need A Prenup?

I find it disturbing that any parent believes they do or should have that kind of control over their adult children. You need to recognize your role in the relationship. She's 25, get out of the way and let her make her own decisions. You can make suggestions but I'd caution that unsolicited advice...
by bigred77
Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does My Daughter Need A Prenup?
Replies: 175
Views: 5843

Re: Anyone had your home appraised recently?

I'm in the process of refinancing right now and just had the appraisal done. My appraiser did not know or understand my area and valued my property about 10% below what it should be. Zillow on the other hand overestimates my property value by around 10%. My property probably isn't even within their ...
by bigred77
Fri Mar 06, 2015 10:37 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone had your home appraised recently?
Replies: 23
Views: 1724

Re: Negative bond yields

If buying negative yield bonds was clearly seen as a bad idea by nearly everybody, they wouldn't be able to sell them, would they? Clearly that's not how they are viewed by the bond market so maybe it would be worth thinking it through. You might not like it, but that's not really the main issue is...
by bigred77
Thu Mar 05, 2015 3:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative bond yields
Replies: 25
Views: 2337

Re: Phillip Morris International PM

a.) I would not invest in individual stocks in the first place. If you can sell, incur no capital gains, and reinvest in a more boglehead manner (that presumably you agree is a better fit for you) than I would certainly do so. b.) There are worse things to speculate on than addiction remaining profi...
by bigred77
Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Phillip Morris International PM
Replies: 5
Views: 321

Re: Best strategy bridging into retirement

1.) pay off the mortgage balance 2.) Take pension as soon as eligible. 3.) defer SS till 70. 4.) I would annuitize a chunk of my 401k (maybe 1/4 to 1/3). 5.) I would manage my withdrawls from other sources to maximize my tax savings, re-evaluate my AA, and let loose of the purse strings (you have mo...
by bigred77
Wed Mar 04, 2015 1:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best strategy bridging into retirement
Replies: 37
Views: 3442

Re: Anyone investing in Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate

I split my REIT allocation 50/50 between VNQ and VNQI.

I have not seen a better (cheaper) alternative to satisfy my need for exposure to international real estate.
by bigred77
Tue Mar 03, 2015 10:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone investing in Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate ETF
Replies: 16
Views: 1135

Re: ...it is madness to risk losing what you need in pursuin

To compare with SWR, USA Today got quotes of 3.79% and 3.63% payouts for an inflation adjusted annuity for a 65 year old man: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/waggoner/2012/10/18/waggoner-inflation-adjusted-annuity/1639119/ But that ends when the man dies, so it not directly comparable...
by bigred77
Mon Mar 02, 2015 6:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ...it is madness to risk losing what you need in pursuing wh
Replies: 48
Views: 5076

Re: Poll: Average E/R

I am at 12 basis points.

I slice and dice. Everything I own is in Fidelity Spartan Funds and Vanguard ETFs.

My yearly expenses (including 5 trading commisions per year at Fidelity for the ETFs) are equal to about 13.5 basis points.
by bigred77
Mon Mar 02, 2015 6:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Average E/R [Expense Ratio]
Replies: 24
Views: 1326

Re: How much did you have saved up for retirement at age 30?

Barring any huge market swings in the next month I'll be right at 275k retirement 400k NW Came from a combination of aquiring a STEM degree, early and often investing during the market bottom in 09', a pretty good ESOP, and the purchase of a foreclosure for our first home. Consequently these are th...
by bigred77
Tue Feb 24, 2015 10:01 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much did you have saved up for retirement at age 30?
Replies: 173
Views: 13215

Re: Thoughts on Chase for everyday banking

If you do not need to go into a local branch all that often, you should check out Fidelity's Cash Management account. Free checks, no fees, free bill pay, free ATM reimbursements etc. Plus my employer 401k is at fidelity so i have my IRAs there as well. Very nice to have all my financial informatio...
by bigred77
Mon Feb 23, 2015 5:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on Chase for everyday banking
Replies: 28
Views: 1983

Re: What % of your gross income do you spend on mortgage/ren

Yeesh...

PITI + HOA fees = 30% of base salaries...

I thought I was right in line but now I feel like a spendthrift... At least this is on a 20 yr mortgage...
by bigred77
Mon Feb 23, 2015 9:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What % of your gross income do you spend on mortgage/rent?
Replies: 155
Views: 9030

Re: Average amount saved for retirement by age

The guesstimates on many online links are way off. The best source for this kind of information is from EBRI's annual surveys and data. They break down the amount of median and average savings by age group and by salary. A family earning between $50,000 and $100,000 had an average amount of $129,00...
by bigred77
Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Average amount saved for retirement by age
Replies: 133
Views: 27762

Re: One stock

if i had to buy today at today's prices... XOM (Exxon)
by bigred77
Mon Feb 16, 2015 2:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: One stock
Replies: 35
Views: 1985

Re: Projection at age 28 - Is this correct?

OP, your projections for final account value in nominal dollars are done correctly (one could argue your projecting to put your yearly contributions in on Jan 1st every year so your final value is being slightly overstated). I don't agree that 8% projected returns are outlandish. No one knows what y...
by bigred77
Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Projection at age 28 - Is this correct?
Replies: 10
Views: 1458

Re: 401k Loan for house

I account for my 401k loan as a fixed income investment for AA purposes in my portfolio. When i put on my lender hat I've been quit pleased with the 4.25% return I've seen when comparing the loan to my alternative (TBM). When i put on my borrower hat I've been quite pleased to borrow at a 4.25% rate...
by bigred77
Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401k Loan for house
Replies: 22
Views: 1675

Re: The Best 60/40 Portfolio?

I like the following:

30% VTI -TSM
20% VXUS - Total International Stock Market
20% BND - Total Bond Market
20% VAIPX - TIPS
5% VNQ - US REITs
5% VNQI - International REITs
by bigred77
Thu Feb 12, 2015 4:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Best 60/40 Portfolio?
Replies: 20
Views: 2223

Re: What is your "margin investing" threshold?

An after tax rate of about 3% is where I draw the line. If I can get a mortgage of 4% or less I will never pre-pay (I'm in the 25% marginal tax bracket). If I was older and/or closer to my "number", my willingness to leverage would be greatly diminished. In the future (once I establish a t...
by bigred77
Thu Feb 12, 2015 2:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your "margin investing" threshold?
Replies: 13
Views: 1400

Re: Is "Financial Independence" the new "Retirement?"

[quote="Meg77"] It's hard to dispute that gaining financial independence early in life is a valid aspirational goal, but I'm surprised to see it promoted as something Millennials uniquely crave or have the potential to realize. Is this really a new concept? They did point out that this ide...
by bigred77
Tue Feb 10, 2015 4:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is "Financial Independence" the new "Retirement?"
Replies: 52
Views: 6924

Re: When they say 10%.... [all to retirement accounts?]

So if I took $5000 out of my Roth, say on June 1 where it's after the contribution deadline from the prior year, I could replace it as long as I put the money back before August 1? My understanding is its actually 60 calander days so you would have to have it back in by July 31, not Aug 1. I've use...
by bigred77
Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When they say 10%.... [all to retirement accounts?]
Replies: 20
Views: 2670

Re: What exactly is "wealthy?"

How about anyone in the top decile of wealth distribution in the richest country in the world? That makes any US family with over a $1M USD wealthy How about top 5%? Surely you don't have to be in the top 1% in wealth distribution do you? How about a paid off piece of property to live in a location ...
by bigred77
Tue Feb 03, 2015 3:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What exactly is "wealthy?"
Replies: 47
Views: 4123

Re: How do you balance frugality and life?

My personal opinion is that if your under age 30-35 (which for some reason i think the OP is, he doesn't mention in this thread), saving anything more than 25% - 33% for retirement is severe overkill unless you're making some extreme income or believe your income to be very unstable/unsustainable. N...
by bigred77
Tue Feb 03, 2015 12:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you balance frugality and life?
Replies: 50
Views: 5469

Re: ROTH not available - What Tax Efficient Options are?

I would be interested in hearing the debate on Traditional Non-Deductable IRAs (that one does not have the option to convert to a Roth) vs using Index Funds in just a taxable brokerage account. If I'm getting no tax break going in (for a non-deductable trad IRA), I assume I'm paying income taxes on ...
by bigred77
Tue Feb 03, 2015 12:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ROTH not available - What Tax Efficient Options are?
Replies: 7
Views: 598

Re: What age did you become financially independent of paren

Graduated high school at 18.
Took 5 years to finish undergrad. Parents definately helped as much as they could.
At 23 started my first job 9 days after graduation and have been financially independent since.
by bigred77
Mon Feb 02, 2015 9:56 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What age did you become financially independent of parents?
Replies: 68
Views: 4786

Re: The lowest stock allocation you plan to stay with

I'm a long way away but I plan to never drop below 60/40 with my AA.

I also plan to utilize SPIA in retirement (starting with 10%-20% of my nest egg at the start of retirement and buying more every 5 years or so) that I will not consider part of that 60/40 AA.
by bigred77
Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The lowest stock allocation you plan to stay with
Replies: 79
Views: 4482

Re: "Retiring in a Low-Return Environment"

I've seen alot of talk about PE10 being our relative best tool to predict stock returns over the next 10 years but I don't think you can just extrapolate that into predicting equity returns 30 years into the future. I've also seen studies point to PE10 having an R squared value of something around ....
by bigred77
Thu Jan 29, 2015 2:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retiring in a Low-Return Environment"
Replies: 71
Views: 7417

Re: What age did you move out?

Moved out at 18 to attend Undergrad. Finished Undergrad at 23 and moved back home to my Moms house while I did an internship that became a full time gig after 3 months. Took another year until I was 24 to pay off my student loans and buy a condo right next to where I work. 5 years later and my Mom h...
by bigred77
Wed Jan 28, 2015 9:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What age did you move out?
Replies: 117
Views: 5277

Re: Get 17% in russian savings account?

Look for arbitrage opportunities by buying Russian fixed income and USD/Ruble futures contracts. You can lock in your rate of return (in USD) as long as no default occurs.
by bigred77
Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get 17% in russian savings account?
Replies: 49
Views: 4599

Re: Salary to Home Value/Mortgage Ratio?

We are a 2 income household and expect to remain so for about 3 more years before dropping down to 1 income. We bought our home in summer 2013. We actually live in a moderately low COL area but we bought in our dream location and paid what costs to live there. Even though we have over 3000 sq ft we'...
by bigred77
Mon Jan 26, 2015 2:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Salary to Home Value/Mortgage Ratio?
Replies: 50
Views: 5542

Re: Small and value: are they diversifiers?

This is just me thinking out loud here but I've always believed in the notion that small and value stocks having higher returns is a "risk story". Being that, I invest in these asset classes because over time they seem to have both a higher standard deviation (in isolation) but also a high...
by bigred77
Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small and value: are they diversifiers?
Replies: 6
Views: 939

Re: Hedging home value risk

Basically my advice would be to get a fixed rate mortgage, make sure you have sufficient disablity/life insurance, and to keep a large amount of cash on hand (lets say a 12 month emergency fund). That is your insurance against job loss, disability, or the mortgage payment becoming unaffordable. If s...
by bigred77
Fri Jan 23, 2015 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hedging home value risk
Replies: 23
Views: 1133

Re: Anyone else love reading textbooks?

Reading from a textbook is the worst thing in the world to me, even if i'm naturally interested in the material.

Maybe its a millenial thing but I just don't have the attention span.
by bigred77
Fri Jan 23, 2015 1:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone else love reading textbooks?
Replies: 82
Views: 2912

Re: Downsize, Reduce, Simplify.

My mother was recently forced to downsize after she became disabled at 59. She went from an empty nest 2400 sqft house with a mortgage to an 850 sqft 1 bedroom condo paid in cash. Her sub-$400 monthly HOA fee includes electrcity and cable as well. She went literally kicking and screaming out of the ...
by bigred77
Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Downsize, Reduce, Simplify.
Replies: 72
Views: 9672
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