Search found 557 matches

by bigred77
Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: cash flow vs. AA
Replies: 11
Views: 368

Re: cash flow vs. AA

You were comfortable before with a 50/50 portfolio when cash flow covered all expenses. After your action to pay off the mortgage, if you were to pass, your wife would have cash flow cover all expenses. I would assume a 50/50 portfolio would still be deemed appropriate. So now you are in a position...
by bigred77
Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: cash flow vs. AA
Replies: 11
Views: 368

Re: cash flow vs. AA

You were comfortable before with a 50/50 portfolio when cash flow covered all expenses. After your action to pay off the mortgage, if you were to pass, your wife would have cash flow cover all expenses. I would assume a 50/50 portfolio would still be deemed appropriate. So now you are in a position ...
by bigred77
Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Made outsize returns in a short period of time: what am I doing wrong?
Replies: 46
Views: 6482

Re: Made outsize returns in a short period of time: what am I doing wrong?

And in general, returns over 20-30% for a private investor usually indicate that you're trading, not investing. You are assuming outsize risk and participating in a field where most people lose their shirts. It's potentially very lucrative, but you have to know what the hell you're doing and even t...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A good problem to have
Replies: 23
Views: 1726

Re: A good problem to have

IMO, May appear that you reasonable are assured you have the nut cracked. I'd do "some" taxable because of favorable tax code in down markets and up markets. Qualified accounts are great in Long-term accumulation holdings but terrible in retirement when you are at or higher tax bracket in...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Goal: Have $0 left when I die
Replies: 66
Views: 4150

Re: Goal: Have $0 left when I die

Annuitize all of your financial assets, rent or reverse mortgage your house to the tilt, and keep only enough cash reserves to pay for your final expenses. Spend all your monthly income on things that make you happy. There's always nicer cars, wine, food, vacations, hotels, seats at the game, or eve...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A good problem to have
Replies: 23
Views: 1726

Re: A good problem to have

duplicate
by bigred77
Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A good problem to have
Replies: 23
Views: 1726

Re: A good problem to have

Your doing everything right as far as I can see. Really no "wrong" answer as to which of your proposed options for excess cashflow is best. If your house is on track to be paid off in 4 years (and it's only 3%) I'd just keep the mortgage payments as is. I'd take the remaining cashflow (500...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding the link between earnings yield and future returns
Replies: 31
Views: 1367

Re: Understanding the link between earnings yield and future returns

As with most things in finance, if you tell me the end result you want to see I can probably come up with a "reasonable" analysis to confirm that for you. That wasn't my question. Well to answer your specific question "How can these models give different predictions? What am I missin...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding the link between earnings yield and future returns
Replies: 31
Views: 1367

Re: Understanding the link between earnings yield and future returns

As with most things in finance, if you tell me the end result you want to see I can probably come up with a "reasonable" analysis to confirm that for you.
by bigred77
Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 117
Views: 7692

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

Put it another way, if you're true EMH propoent, to you the prices of US stock in Dec 1999 or Japan of 1980 were completely fair. I find even that notion outrageous. I do believe those prices were completely fair at that time and given the available information investors had at that time I know you...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 117
Views: 7692

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

azanon wrote:
Put it another way, if you're true EMH propoent, to you the prices of US stock in Dec 1999 or Japan of 1980 were completely fair. I find even that notion outrageous.


I do believe those prices were completely fair at that time and given the available information investors had at that time
by bigred77
Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 117
Views: 7692

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

What risk? Stocks are always fairly valued to an EMH proponent, and provided that you have a reasonable time horizon, say much over 5 years, why would you intentionally earn less return by holding bonds? Even a dot.com in 1999, that has nothing more than a URL, but is priced $150/share is a fair de...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 117
Views: 7692

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

I always get a kick of anyone who views themselves as "staying the course" or a pure EMH proponent, but they hold an asset allocation portfolio of stocks and bonds that they "rebalance" every year or two. I guess they think that doesn't count... :D I view myself as "staying...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 117
Views: 7692

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

Those who say this will be proven to have been the "right" move if the OP re-enters the equity market at lower prices are confusing strategy with outcome. Per Boglehead principals, and based on much academic research and findings, this is definitively the "wrong" strategy. The OP...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 02, 2015 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home Equity When Estimating Savings for Retirement
Replies: 47
Views: 2559

Re: Home Equity When Estimating Savings for Retirement

I'm wondering if most people here do or do not include their home equity when figuring out a savings rate in order to retire. I was taking a look at this simple calculator: http://www.vox.com/2014/7/31/5882885/retirement-planning-saving-how-much-do-i-need I live & own a condo in NYC, and have s...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 02, 2015 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I have a Confession...Dave Ramsey...Help!
Replies: 70
Views: 7969

Re: I have a Confession...Dave Ramsey...Help!

I also enjoy all kinds of what I classify as "financial voyeurism". I just enjoy reading/listening/watching about real people's financial lives. I used to listen to Dave Ramsey's podcast (when I had more free time), I watched Susie Orman on TV, and my favorite show (that I'm said to say I ...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 02, 2015 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Co-Workers Think I'm Doomed Based on Portfolio Perf.
Replies: 50
Views: 5473

Re: Co-Workers Think I'm Doomed Based on Portfolio Perf.

Who are all these public sector employees with govt pensions, SS, and on track to have 7 figure portfolios in their early 50's??? :D The OP is in tremendous financial shape IMO (assuming normal expenditures, basically anything under 100k/yr). I suspect the OPs co-workers are either an outlier group ...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 02, 2015 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 117
Views: 7692

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

I really enjoy the AssetBuilder blog with articles by Scott Burns and Andrew Hallam. Here's a recent article on the dangers of missing the "up" days during even long periods of time. The best move is to simply stay invested. The reason your likely to make superior returns over the long run...
by bigred77
Tue Sep 01, 2015 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you get better returns by overweighting low-PE assets?
Replies: 53
Views: 2355

Re: Can you get better returns by overweighting low-PE assets?

The 3 fund portfolio (or even just a good target date fund) is all you need. Slicing/Dicing/Tilting/Over-weighting whatever asset class or factor you want to should only be used by those who understand the (additional/different) risks they are taking and can articulate why they believe in their deci...
by bigred77
Mon Aug 31, 2015 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managing sequence risk approaching retirement using valuations
Replies: 14
Views: 860

Re: Managing sequence risk approaching retirement using valuations

Leeaar wrote: "My goodness, "Tactical Asset Allocation" sounds so much better than "market timing", doesn't it? " I can only image the struggle the Nobel committee encountered trying to decide between Robert Shiller's approach, who says we can detect bubbles, and Eugen...
by bigred77
Mon Aug 31, 2015 8:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thoughts on inverted floor plan house
Replies: 26
Views: 2776

Re: Thoughts on inverted floor plan house

This kind of layout is not uncommon where I live (smaller lots because land is relatively more expensive, build 3-4 stories up, garage and guest room 1st floor, kitchen, living, and dining on the second floor, and master bedroom + guest bedroom(s) on the 3rd floor. I really like the layout and think...
by bigred77
Fri Aug 28, 2015 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much do you donate to your kid's public school?
Replies: 60
Views: 4452

Re: How much do you donate to your kid's public school?

Thank you very much, everyone. Since we moved here, we are kind of overwhelmed with SF bay area's rich community. In fact, many families that are literally 'millionaires/billionaires' attend the school, driving Tesla/Porsche to school. Don't assume wealth because of cars they drive. For all you kno...
by bigred77
Fri Aug 28, 2015 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sigh, what's the point of knowing investing theory?
Replies: 20
Views: 1601

Re: Sigh, what's the point of knowing investing theory?

Making money and managing the money you have are 2 different things and (usually) 2 different skill sets. It sounds like you are managing the money you do have well and have developed that skill set. You would reap the largest benefit going forward by focusing your efforts on developing a skill set ...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance suggestion needed from the Maths wizards :)
Replies: 17
Views: 1807

Re: Refinance suggestion needed from the Maths wizards :)

There is absolutely no way I would pay 2.5k to cut my interest rate on 150k by 0.25% (plus you are giving up a 30 amortization schedule to move to a 15 yr). You would be far better off to throw the 2.5k at the remaining loan balance. Saving 0.25% of 150k is only 375 dollars. I think if you shop arou...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Was about to change from 100% equity to 80%. Now what?
Replies: 71
Views: 7352

Re: Was about to change from 100% equity to 80%. Now what?

Simplicity is a good thing around here. With rca posting in this one they only hold TSM and TBM, we may be winning them over? Now, if we can just convince him/her there is no perfect or optimal... :D 3 more model revisions and maybe he/she will conclude that there is no "best" portfolio, ...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Was about to change from 100% equity to 80%. Now what?
Replies: 71
Views: 7352

Re: Was about to change from 100% equity to 80%. Now what?

rca1824, Learning that your an Econ grad student makes SO much sense given your posting history. I recognize most of your equations from my "Portfolio Theory" class a few semesters back. I'm curious, what is your goal for your "optimum portfolio"? Create the portfolio with the a...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Was about to change from 100% equity to 80%. Now what?
Replies: 71
Views: 7352

Re: Was about to change from 100% equity to 80%. Now what?

rca1824, Learning that your an Econ grad student makes SO much sense given your posting history. I recognize most of your equations from my "Portfolio Theory" class a few semesters back. I'm curious, what is your goal for your "optimum portfolio"? Create the portfolio with the ab...
by bigred77
Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Investors - First Correction?
Replies: 45
Views: 4049

Re: New Investors - First Correction?

This is the first time my portfolio has ever been down over 10,000 dollars in a single day.

It's a weird feeling.
by bigred77
Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to spend more and not feel bad about it
Replies: 56
Views: 5761

Re: How to spend more and not feel bad about it

lol no that's not quite right. 1,518% return on 10k is $151,800, not 15M I used the "K" to represent thousand; there were no $10 cars, even back in 1979. 10,000 X 1,518 = 15,180,000. So that AMC Eagle cost me millions. No i realize that but 10,000 X 1,518% = 151,800 To get to 15 million y...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Help Starting Out
Replies: 6
Views: 404

Re: Need Help Starting Out

My main question is do you plan to work after the surrogacy is complete? That mortgage on your husbands income alone is going to be pretty stiff. I would probably look to use either the Roth IRA or simply increase your husband contribution to the TSP if you want to invest further. I would personally...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prepping to sell home: Pay Mortgage or Pay Student Loans
Replies: 38
Views: 3143

Re: Prepping to sell home: Pay Mortgage or Pay Student Loans

Yes sir. Does the 20% factor in when I get the bill from them next year? or can will my estimate tax be adjusted already? If its adjusted already, I did not get 20% savings. We don't receive estimated tax bills in my county so I'm not sure. I get my bill around Dec 1st and I think they give me unti...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to spend more and not feel bad about it
Replies: 56
Views: 5761

Re: How to spend more and not feel bad about it

Back in 1979 I blew $10,000 on a car; within six months I hated the car, there is a reason AMC went out of business. If I kept the car I had and invested the 10 K in the S&P 500 it would have increased 1,518% with reinvested dividends and be worth 15,000,000 pretax, inflation adjusted dollars t...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prepping to sell home: Pay Mortgage or Pay Student Loans
Replies: 38
Views: 3143

Re: Prepping to sell home: Pay Mortgage or Pay Student Loans

Also, just checking here but you have filed your homeowners exemption with your county appraisal district right? It should reduce your property taxes by 20%. I'm amazed how many first time home buyers in Texas I see forget to do this for a few years.
by bigred77
Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prepping to sell home: Pay Mortgage or Pay Student Loans
Replies: 38
Views: 3143

Re: Prepping to sell home: Pay Mortgage or Pay Student Loans

I see your in Texas and property taxes are KILLER here. Its how they make up the difference from not having a state income tax. If you think you can raise up 100k or so in cash in the next 2 years than yes, I would pay off the student loans first then pay down the mortgage and refinance. I would abs...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 20, 2015 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prepping to sell home: Pay Mortgage or Pay Student Loans
Replies: 38
Views: 3143

Re: Prepping to sell home: Pay Mortgage or Pay Student Loans

Your current situation comes from buying a house for 331k less than a year ago. Why would buying a house for 325k next year help your situation dramatically? Plus it will be a less desirable house than what you currently have. Your going to get eaten alive in transaction costs and friction. I would ...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to spend more and not feel bad about it
Replies: 56
Views: 5761

Re: How to spend more and not feel bad about it

I second the suggestions of picking an appropriate savings rate first, pay mandatory expenses second, and spend everything that's left over in whatever you think you will enjoy most.
by bigred77
Wed Aug 19, 2015 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Range of Outcomes for Different Stock/Bond Allocations
Replies: 17
Views: 1607

Re: Range of Outcomes for Different Stock/Bond Allocations

I LOVE playing with these tools. Bear in mind this data references fairly strong small and value tilts, as wells as a hefty slub of international in their portfolios:

https://www.ifa.com/portfolios/60
by bigred77
Wed Aug 19, 2015 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help 2 grow 90k invest fairly fast
Replies: 89
Views: 7763

Re: Help 2 grow 90k invest fairly fast

You could get plenty of access to leverage via Oil Futures (long), USD/EUR Futures (short), or S&P 500 Futures (i have no idea).
by bigred77
Tue Aug 18, 2015 6:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Non-Retirees: Scared about retirement?
Replies: 45
Views: 5019

Re: Non-Retirees: Scared about retirement?

Not so much scared but if I delayed gratification over the course of my career (say i saved 25%+ every year) and then some financial Armageddon happened that wiped EVERYBODY out I would be pretty peeved since it would all have been for naught. If I died the day before retirement at least my wife/hei...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 18, 2015 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good argument for underweighting international stocks?
Replies: 77
Views: 4669

Re: Good argument for underweighting international stocks?

What are the chances of a long bear market depression, war, or other "very bad event" that occurs in the US over the next 100 years? I don't know the answer to that but I would prefer to have a substantial allocation to international markets in that scenario. I acknowledge that in the pas...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 18, 2015 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Withdrawal strategies for various stages of retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 1547

Re: Withdrawal strategies for various stages of retirement

First, I don't think Roth IRA's have RMDs. I think you can leave it in there as long as you like. Second, I think in general, the order of accounts to withdraw from are taxable, then traditional IRA's/401k's, then Roth IRAs last. I don't know how best to incorporate your whole life policy into that ...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 18, 2015 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good argument for underweighting international stocks?
Replies: 77
Views: 4669

Re: Good argument for underweighting international stocks?

What are the chances of a long bear market depression, war, or other "very bad event" that occurs in the US over the next 100 years? I don't know the answer to that but I would prefer to have a substantial allocation to international markets in that scenario. I acknowledge that in the past...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My retirement number..is this realistic?
Replies: 18
Views: 2229

Re: My retirement number..is this realistic?

It's unclear if you are referring to $2M in nominal dollars or in in real (2015) dollars in your original post. If you save 29k per year (a maxed out 401k and 2 Roth IRAs, no employer match), every year going forward you would need a 4.5% nominal return to hit $2M in nominal dollars when you reach 6...
by bigred77
Sun Aug 16, 2015 7:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Negotiating on CERTIFIED used cars.. strategy?
Replies: 12
Views: 1894

Re: Negotiating on CERTIFIED used cars.. strategy?

You really only get a good deal on CPO luxury cars (Lexus, BMW) because they depreciate so quickly. Honda is rated best for resale value. I purchased my Accord new for this reason. Splurge and buy new if you can and take good care of it and you can sell it for a decent price when you have to. I wou...
by bigred77
Sun Aug 16, 2015 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Selling Home - How to Invest Equity between Cash, AA and Investment Property Debt
Replies: 2
Views: 218

Re: Selling Home - How to Invest Equity between Cash, AA and Investment Property Debt

My thoughts that come to mind on this: - Why not sell all of your real estate and just buy the House in SF that you want now? It looks like you could put 50% down on a $1.5M property right now if you sold everything. If you plan to stay in the Bay Area Long term this would be my advice. Take all the...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 13, 2015 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation : individual accounts or across entire financial life?
Replies: 12
Views: 638

Re: Asset allocation : individual accounts or across entire financial life?

I see one caveat to the "overall allocation" approach for couples. Let's suppose that a married couple uses Spouse A's accounts for equity allocation and Spouse B's accounts for fixed income as part of a combined investment allocation plan. What happens if, after 20 years or so, there is ...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 13, 2015 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation : individual accounts or across entire financial life?
Replies: 12
Views: 638

Re: Asset allocation : individual accounts or across entire financial life?

I think most here would advise you look at ALL your dollars as one portfolio regardless of what accounts there in first. Then you would look at Asset Location for optimizing your tax situation. Anything after that you start delving into "mental accounting", which is fine, and just depends ...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 13, 2015 10:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Maximizing space in a small house
Replies: 39
Views: 4080

Re: Maximizing space in a small house

One thing I learned early on is don't buy over-sized furniture that's too big for the space. I was surprised at how many different sizes sofa's can come in. I resisted at first but my wife eventually convinced me to spend money on containers and storage solutions. They do make a difference. The less...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 12, 2015 4:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much is too much?
Replies: 42
Views: 5601

Re: How much is too much?

Its unbelievable to me what some of the reported savings rates are around here, and not just people with extremely high incomes. Unless I was either making obscene amounts of money (to me that's a HHI of $400k+) or was 40+ yrs old with no nest egg yet, I just don't see why people would save 50%+ of...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 12, 2015 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much is too much?
Replies: 42
Views: 5601

Re: How much is too much?

Its unbelievable to me what some of the reported savings rates are around here, and not just people with extremely high incomes. Unless I was either making obscene amounts of money (to me that's a HHI of $400k+) or was 40+ yrs old with no nest egg yet, I just don't see why people would save 50%+ of...

Go to advanced search