Search found 470 matches

by bigred77
Thu Jul 30, 2015 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique
Replies: 36
Views: 1608

Re: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique

I bonds EE Bonds held for 20 years CD's and/or CD ladders. None of the above will lose money (nominal) and are more liquid than your proposed plan. There also generally agreed on to be good fixed income instruments. If you do this (the mortgage paydown), and stock's hit a bear market, you have nothi...
by bigred77
Wed Jul 29, 2015 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My Portfolio and My Investing Behavior
Replies: 14
Views: 1284

Re: My Portfolio and My Investing Behavior

I would be wary of letting the tax tail wag the dog. You have 20%+ of your financial assets in individual company stocks. Would you still make the same decision if there was no tax liability? What would the hit be to liquidate half of those positions in 2015 and half on January 2nd, 2016? Also, wher...
by bigred77
Wed Jul 29, 2015 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash down + Refi vs Pay down Debts
Replies: 7
Views: 213

Re: Cash down + Refi vs Pay down Debts

It's pretty borderline with mortgage rates where they are. I doubt you will be able to find a true no-cost refi on a 30 yr fixed that beats your rate right now. If you want to move to a 15 yr fixed or an ARM (and if you have good reasons for thinking the ARM better suits your needs) than that's a di...
by bigred77
Wed Jul 29, 2015 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash down + Refi vs Pay down Debts
Replies: 7
Views: 213

Re: Cash down + Refi vs Pay down Debts

Whats the current interest rate on the mortgage (and is it a 30 yr fixed or an ARM)?
by bigred77
Thu Jul 23, 2015 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401k loan for down payment?
Replies: 4
Views: 411

Re: 401k loan for down payment?

I borrowed from my 401k when I upgraded from a condo to a house and definitely don't see any issues with your plan seeing as you own your starter home free and clear (and plan to sell it after moving). When i borrowed from my 401k I considered the loan a fixed income asset held by my 401k. I only so...
by bigred77
Thu Jul 23, 2015 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogle backfire?
Replies: 66
Views: 7726

Re: Bogle backfire?

Do not confuse strategy with outcome... When a poker play folds his cards and then see's the last card would have made his hand a straight, he did not make the wrong decision, he made the best decision using the information he had at the time that decision had to be made. Believe me, consistently ma...
by bigred77
Wed Jul 22, 2015 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do people afford children with a SAHS?
Replies: 183
Views: 10564

Re: How do people afford children with a SAHS?

I just think the OP is in the following situation (and I think it happens to a lot of younger people now a days): Graduate from college, get a job, get married, buy a house you think is affordable using both salaries (or at least a portion of the second salary) and/or assume your salary will grow a...
by bigred77
Wed Jul 22, 2015 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your financial goals?
Replies: 41
Views: 4053

Re: What are your financial goals?

Early 30s, Married. Short Term - Progress my career - Pay off all non-mortgage debt - Superfund 529's for children before they hit elementary school - Increase my savings amount each and every year - Stay the course Long Term - Financial Independence by 50 - No debt (including mortgages) after 50 - ...
by bigred77
Wed Jul 22, 2015 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do people afford children with a SAHS?
Replies: 183
Views: 10564

Re: How do people afford children with a SAHS?

I just think the OP is in the following situation (and I think it happens to a lot of younger people now a days): Graduate from college, get a job, get married, buy a house you think is affordable using both salaries (or at least a portion of the second salary) and/or assume your salary will grow at...
by bigred77
Tue Jul 21, 2015 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The X Factor?
Replies: 6
Views: 435

Re: The X Factor?

1.) I think this is "madness" with no method to it whatsoever.

2.) You stated you believe in the semi-strong form efficiency of EMH which implies that technical analysis (which is all this crap is in my opinion) will not be able to produce excess returns. Keep on this train of thought.
by bigred77
Tue Jul 21, 2015 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do people afford children with a SAHS?
Replies: 183
Views: 10564

Re: How do people afford children with a SAHM?

Agree that this is all about choices. My wife and I hope to be able to have kids in the next 2 years and have her stay at home until all kids are at least in Pre-K. We wanted to be a one income family who continued to save 20% for retirement, lived a very nice upper middle class lifestyle, took year...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 30, 2015 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Savings plan "pivot"
Replies: 17
Views: 1742

Re: Savings plan "pivot"

I think the past few posts are missing the point that the OP was using "Real" numbers in his calculations. He was referring to adding $5,000 in 2015 dollars every year going forward to an already accumulated 200k+ and assuming 5% real returns over the next 32 years (not unreasonable in my ...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 30, 2015 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too high Intra-Portfolio Correlation (IPC)?
Replies: 28
Views: 1398

Re: Too high Intra-Portfolio Correlation (IPC)?

Having a larger stash of cash as an Emergency Fund (that perhaps you mentally account for differently from your "portfolio") and also holding a stock heavy portfolio is perfectly fine and prudent. If your goal is to hold a low percentage of bonds in the portfolio and also minimize correlat...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 30, 2015 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too high Intra-Portfolio Correlation (IPC)?
Replies: 28
Views: 1398

Re: Too high Intra-Portfolio Correlation (IPC)?

I actually disagree with LadyGeek and I don't think your portfolio is "highly" correlated. That's a relative term. I actually think you are extremely diversified (relative to the most commonly recommended portfolios here). Could you lower your portfolio's correlation by adding commodities,...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 30, 2015 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do you do to reduce your "need" expenses?
Replies: 27
Views: 1732

Re: What do you do to reduce your "need" expenses?

Resisting the urge to "move up" on homes/cars is probably the most effective single thing you can do IMO.
by bigred77
Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Money arguments with spouse and how did you resolve
Replies: 72
Views: 8807

Re: Money arguments with spouse and how did you resolve

If a financial related disagreement rises from a "discussion" to an "argument" I find it best for both parties to walk away, cool down, and resume discussions later. I've always felt it best to frame the issue as "we have a finite amount of money, if we allocate some of it t...
by bigred77
Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 278
Views: 27853

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

75/25 at age 30. I think this is slightly conservative for my age, at least compared to many experts/target date funds. The "cost" of giving up and small piece of expected/historical return versus the larger (and I consider significant) reduction in expected/historical volatility seems lik...
by bigred77
Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Most Economical Way to Handle the Lawn
Replies: 84
Views: 8178

Re: Most Economical Way to Handle the Lawn

I preface this by saying I HATE yardwork. I can't stand it and am willing to pay a reasonable fee to have others do it for me. You (like many others) may feel differently. I would negotiate with the lawn care company and see if they can come every other week for the 6 months out of the year that the...
by bigred77
Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Role of annuities in low SWR situations
Replies: 29
Views: 3499

Re: Role of annuities in low SWR situations

I would have advised them to take some cash and buy a SPIA to cover their current spending needs + maybe 10% or so. Maybe 1/3 of their total portfolio tops. This would only make sense (IMO) if they were willing to change their AA (I would have suggested 60/40) so that they're both enjoying higher re...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ask me anything - Mortgages
Replies: 29
Views: 3845

Re: Ask me anything - Mortgages

What type of loans exist for putting down 5 % and getting a 15% + 80% loan ? <--- poor wording, just clueless on loans I assume pay off the 15% loan and then PMI would go away ?? Excuse my ignorance , I'm trying to put 5% down and pay no PMI or as little PMI as possible. Options ? TIA You can typic...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean to be FIRE?
Replies: 30
Views: 3149

Re: What does it mean to be FIRE?

I know it when I see it :D
by bigred77
Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ask me anything - Mortgages
Replies: 29
Views: 3845

Re: Ask me anything - Mortgages

What type of loans exist for putting down 5 % and getting a 15% + 80% loan ? <--- poor wording, just clueless on loans I assume pay off the 15% loan and then PMI would go away ?? Excuse my ignorance , I'm trying to put 5% down and pay no PMI or as little PMI as possible. Options ? TIA You can typic...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 23, 2015 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Optimize trip to China
Replies: 24
Views: 2527

Re: Optimize trip to China

I was in Beijing last summer for 5 days. We saw all the typical touristy sights (Forbidden City, Tienanmen Square, Great Wall) and had a great time. They had some good tour groups available from our hotel. They cost a little bit more than doing it on your own but you have an interesting tour guide a...
by bigred77
Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Concerns about upcoming Greece visit.
Replies: 26
Views: 3110

Re: Concerns about upcoming Greece visit.

I was in Athens 2 years ago and while the city was a little "run down" looking in parts it was perfectly safe and enjoyable. The islands we're pretty amazing. The historical sights and museums we're something to see. I was in Istanbul on the same trip right after the demonstrations in Taks...
by bigred77
Thu Jun 18, 2015 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "4% Rule" revisited
Replies: 102
Views: 13999

Re: The "4% Rule" revisited

To be clear, the amount withdrawn in the first year is 4% of the starting amount, and every year thereafter that exact same amount (adjusted for inflation) is withdrawn no matter what the current portfolio value is. So for our $1M example, with 2% inflation that would mean $40,800 withdrawn the sec...
by bigred77
Thu Jun 18, 2015 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "4% Rule" revisited
Replies: 102
Views: 13999

Re: The "4% Rule" revisited

The real thing to understand is that 4% is already a very conservative number... 4% worked during the Great Depression... and 3.7% worked for the unfortunate people who retired in 1966-67... 1966-1982 was 16 years of basically zero stock market gains (DOW was around 1000 in 1966 and still around 10...
by bigred77
Thu Jun 18, 2015 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "4% Rule" revisited
Replies: 102
Views: 13999

Re: The "4% Rule" revisited

I've always enjoyed Mr. Larimore's response when the subject of SWRs comes up. For those that like to debate the finer points of SWRs (which admittedly i like to do as well) in respect to backtesting, expected returns moving forward, AA in retirement, etc, I hope they will read this article a few ti...
by bigred77
Thu Jun 18, 2015 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Change of heart on bonds
Replies: 29
Views: 4588

Re: Change of heart on bonds

If most of your income comes from a young, growing small business then you are playing with fire being 100% stocks. What do you think will happen if another 2008 happens where your portfolio goes down AND your income goes down. There are not many small business (especially young ones) that don't ge...
by bigred77
Wed Jun 17, 2015 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another "Can we afford this home?" scenario
Replies: 13
Views: 2088

Re: Another "Can we afford this home?" scenario

You have great incomes and great debt-to-income ratios for highly educated young professionals (in this day and age anyway). However, you guys still have a negative net worth of about -$85,000. I wouldn't advise going out and buying a 400k house just because you CAN. If you had kids already and need...
by bigred77
Wed Jun 17, 2015 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Times changed - what next
Replies: 13
Views: 2139

Re: Times changed - what next

In your situation I would be more concerned about simplifying my life than getting an extra percentage of return on my medium term money. I would probably do the following with the 230k of cash: - I would pay off all my debt (about 68k net of the credit card you say you pay of monthly anyway). This ...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 16, 2015 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House Underwater
Replies: 22
Views: 3208

Re: House Underwater

If your numbers are accurate (and I assume your yearly taxes and insurance are equal to 3% of the house value) you have a rental property with a 10%+ cap rate. Your cash flow positive AND you'd have to bring a check to closing if you sell? Unless you have something more going on your not telling us ...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 16, 2015 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel's letter to the editor on Shiller's CAPE data problem
Replies: 14
Views: 2728

Re: Siegel's letter to the editor on Shiller's CAPE data problem

I'm all for any argument that promotes a little optimism in future equity returns vs some of the predictions I see around Bogleheads at times.
by bigred77
Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gifting Money at Parties
Replies: 220
Views: 14378

Re: Gifting Money at Parties

One other thing I learned from this thread is that baby showers after your first kid is controversial. I did not know this, I just assumed you always had a baby shower for every pregnancy. In my defense, I just finally passed the phase in my life where my immediate reaction to finding out one my fri...
by bigred77
Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gifting Money at Parties
Replies: 220
Views: 14378

Re: Gifting Money at Parties

In the last 10 years, I've been to weddings that have cost from a low of $85 per plate to a high of $400 a plate. Of course, these venues are all located in the NYC area, a well known HCOL location. The wedding industry is a complete racket here with almost everyone looking to get in on the action,...
by bigred77
Mon Jun 15, 2015 1:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gifting Money at Parties
Replies: 220
Views: 14378

Re: Gifting Money at Parties

Giving money at all may seem strange to those of us who are older, at least in the middle class. I've always just given a gift, usually something from the bridal registry. Not too long ago, under most circumstances a gift of cash could have been considered tacky at least from where I came from. It ...
by bigred77
Mon Jun 15, 2015 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gifting Money at Parties
Replies: 220
Views: 14378

Re: Gifting Money at Parties

Our wedding a few years ago cost us right around 30k for the ceremony and reception. About 250 guests. Open Bar, Very nice venue. We did not register anywhere and asked our parents to communicate we only wanted cash. We had less than 5 gifts that exceeded $100. All we're from well to do friends of m...
by bigred77
Mon Jun 15, 2015 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Investing and Age Gap
Replies: 15
Views: 2445

Re: Retirement Investing and Age Gap

I hate to be the bearer of more grim news, don't expect 8% annual returns on a nominal basis, we will be lucky if we see 6-7% annual returns. The best advice I can offer is to try and save 10% of every paycheck after you build that e-fund, use those savings to invest for retirement. Rome wasn't bui...
by bigred77
Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual stocks that have outperformed the market
Replies: 41
Views: 4402

Re: Individual stocks that have outperformed the market

Some companies are better than others. Some companies are worse than others. That's why there is an army of Ivy League MBA's that long, short, and trade those companies until they get to fair price. The odds that you can pick stocks better than these guys is pretty low. If you define "the marke...
by bigred77
Fri Jun 12, 2015 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on 401k loan for home purchase?
Replies: 29
Views: 2477

Re: Thoughts on 401k loan for home purchase?

Can you not try and negotiate the closing date of the townhouse to be once it is completed and move in ready? I'm unfamiliar with buying new construction but this must be a possibility right? If that the case you can put your current home on the market 2-3 months prior to completion and then negotia...
by bigred77
Fri Jun 05, 2015 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does too high initial house asking price kill chance at selling house?
Replies: 50
Views: 4904

Re: Does too high initial house asking price kill chance at selling house?

In my area, there is a real problem with low appraisals. People aren't selling because the appraisals are coming in so low. Here's my personal case. I put a house on the market, got three offers within two days. Accepted the cleanest full price offer. We are scheduled to close in less than a week, ...
by bigred77
Fri Jun 05, 2015 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year long hiatus from Bogleheads: How I found the 3-fund portfolio was right for me
Replies: 40
Views: 5236

Re: Year long hiatus from Bogleheads: How I found the 3-fund portfolio was right for me

The percentage of your portfolio in equities vs. fixed income and your ability to stick with whatever sub-allocations your AA consists of are far and away the biggest drivers of the returns you achieve. Sound's like you have found your comfort zone in the 3 fund portfolio. Stick with it long term now.
by bigred77
Fri Jun 05, 2015 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does too high initial house asking price kill chance at selling house?
Replies: 50
Views: 4904

Re: Does too high initial house asking price kill chance at selling house?

In my area, there is a real problem with low appraisals. People aren't selling because the appraisals are coming in so low. Here's my personal case. I put a house on the market, got three offers within two days. Accepted the cleanest full price offer. We are scheduled to close in less than a week, ...
by bigred77
Thu Jun 04, 2015 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Big Decision to Make
Replies: 58
Views: 9721

Re: Big Decision to Make

It's a different culture and a different experience.

If your wife is on board I would say do it. It would be hard to bank that kind of money anywhere else and to do it while still young would be tremendous.

If it doesn't work out you can always up and leave.
by bigred77
Wed Jun 03, 2015 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I pay off my house
Replies: 28
Views: 3071

Re: Should I pay off my house

I see no reason why you wouldn't pay it off, keep 30k or so of what's leftover in the existing savings account, and then invest the remainder in a taxable brokerage account that you now contribute to monthly (at least the same amount as the former mortgage payment).
by bigred77
Tue Jun 02, 2015 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% of year-end portfolio balance for a 35-year SWR?
Replies: 38
Views: 5046

Re: 5% of year-end portfolio balance for a 35-year SWR?

Your points about 5 yr treasury vs "long" interest rates make sense. Just noise really (when it comes to Firecalc's assumptions anyway). I suppose a variable withdrawal approach affords some extra leeway to use a higher stock/bond AA than normally recommended. You're trading less volatile ...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 02, 2015 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Half of Americans can't handle a $400 unexpected expense
Replies: 14
Views: 1767

Re: Half of Americans can't handle a $400 unexpected expense

How disheartening is this for the future? Half of the richest country can't afford a (relatively) minor expense easily. Why do you think this is disheartening for the future? It has always been true, and it will always be true that a significant portion of society lives hand to mouth.* *citation ne...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 02, 2015 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is total return vs. dividend investing?
Replies: 59
Views: 4263

Re: What is total return vs. dividend investing?

To try and put it simply: Total Return Investing is using a 3-Fund portfolio like we commonly discuss on this board. Dividend (also referred to as Income) Investing is investing in things that juice up your portfolio's yield. It's debatable what that can include but I would suggest adding a higher p...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Half of Americans can't handle a $400 unexpected expense
Replies: 14
Views: 1767

Re: Half of Americans can't handle a $400 unexpected expense

How disheartening is this for the future? Half of the richest country can't afford a (relatively) minor expense easily. Why do you think this is disheartening for the future? It has always been true, and it will always be true that a significant portion of society lives hand to mouth.* *citation ne...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 02, 2015 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paper: Two Determinants of Lifecycle Investment Success
Replies: 12
Views: 1683

Re: Paper: Two Determinants of Lifecycle Investment Success

These findings imply that defined contribution plan sponsors should encourage young workers to start contributing to their 401(k) accounts early, consistently, and at a high level. regards That's funny. So, when one is young, not earning much, thinking about buying a house, starting a family, etc, ...
by bigred77
Mon Jun 01, 2015 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Income to offset cut in hours
Replies: 5
Views: 847

Re: Income to offset cut in hours

I think you would be well served researching "total return" vs. "income" investment styles. My belief is that the boglehead consensus is that a total return approach is the way to go. If I understand correctly your intention is to take withdrawals from your portfolio to supplemen...

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