Search found 459 matches

by bigred77
Tue Jun 30, 2015 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Savings plan "pivot"
Replies: 17
Views: 1640

Re: Savings plan "pivot"

I think the past few posts are missing the point that the OP was using "Real" numbers in his calculations. He was referring to adding $5,000 in 2015 dollars every year going forward to an already accumulated 200k+ and assuming 5% real returns over the next 32 years (not unreasonable in my ...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 30, 2015 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too high Intra-Portfolio Correlation (IPC)?
Replies: 26
Views: 939

Re: Too high Intra-Portfolio Correlation (IPC)?

Having a larger stash of cash as an Emergency Fund (that perhaps you mentally account for differently from your "portfolio") and also holding a stock heavy portfolio is perfectly fine and prudent. If your goal is to hold a low percentage of bonds in the portfolio and also minimize correlat...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 30, 2015 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Too high Intra-Portfolio Correlation (IPC)?
Replies: 26
Views: 939

Re: Too high Intra-Portfolio Correlation (IPC)?

I actually disagree with LadyGeek and I don't think your portfolio is "highly" correlated. That's a relative term. I actually think you are extremely diversified (relative to the most commonly recommended portfolios here). Could you lower your portfolio's correlation by adding commodities,...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 30, 2015 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do you do to reduce your "need" expenses?
Replies: 27
Views: 1525

Re: What do you do to reduce your "need" expenses?

Resisting the urge to "move up" on homes/cars is probably the most effective single thing you can do IMO.
by bigred77
Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Money arguments with spouse and how did you resolve
Replies: 68
Views: 7028

Re: Money arguments with spouse and how did you resolve

If a financial related disagreement rises from a "discussion" to an "argument" I find it best for both parties to walk away, cool down, and resume discussions later. I've always felt it best to frame the issue as "we have a finite amount of money, if we allocate some of it t...
by bigred77
Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 268
Views: 17667

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

75/25 at age 30. I think this is slightly conservative for my age, at least compared to many experts/target date funds. The "cost" of giving up and small piece of expected/historical return versus the larger (and I consider significant) reduction in expected/historical volatility seems lik...
by bigred77
Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Most Economical Way to Handle the Lawn
Replies: 71
Views: 6606

Re: Most Economical Way to Handle the Lawn

I preface this by saying I HATE yardwork. I can't stand it and am willing to pay a reasonable fee to have others do it for me. You (like many others) may feel differently. I would negotiate with the lawn care company and see if they can come every other week for the 6 months out of the year that the...
by bigred77
Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Role of annuities in low SWR situations
Replies: 29
Views: 3265

Re: Role of annuities in low SWR situations

I would have advised them to take some cash and buy a SPIA to cover their current spending needs + maybe 10% or so. Maybe 1/3 of their total portfolio tops. This would only make sense (IMO) if they were willing to change their AA (I would have suggested 60/40) so that they're both enjoying higher re...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ask me anything - Mortgages
Replies: 29
Views: 3771

Re: Ask me anything - Mortgages

What type of loans exist for putting down 5 % and getting a 15% + 80% loan ? <--- poor wording, just clueless on loans I assume pay off the 15% loan and then PMI would go away ?? Excuse my ignorance , I'm trying to put 5% down and pay no PMI or as little PMI as possible. Options ? TIA You can typic...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean to be FIRE?
Replies: 30
Views: 3015

Re: What does it mean to be FIRE?

I know it when I see it :D
by bigred77
Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ask me anything - Mortgages
Replies: 29
Views: 3771

Re: Ask me anything - Mortgages

What type of loans exist for putting down 5 % and getting a 15% + 80% loan ? <--- poor wording, just clueless on loans I assume pay off the 15% loan and then PMI would go away ?? Excuse my ignorance , I'm trying to put 5% down and pay no PMI or as little PMI as possible. Options ? TIA You can typic...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 23, 2015 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Optimize trip to China
Replies: 24
Views: 2438

Re: Optimize trip to China

I was in Beijing last summer for 5 days. We saw all the typical touristy sights (Forbidden City, Tienanmen Square, Great Wall) and had a great time. They had some good tour groups available from our hotel. They cost a little bit more than doing it on your own but you have an interesting tour guide a...
by bigred77
Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Concerns about upcoming Greece visit.
Replies: 26
Views: 2967

Re: Concerns about upcoming Greece visit.

I was in Athens 2 years ago and while the city was a little "run down" looking in parts it was perfectly safe and enjoyable. The islands we're pretty amazing. The historical sights and museums we're something to see. I was in Istanbul on the same trip right after the demonstrations in Taks...
by bigred77
Thu Jun 18, 2015 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "4% Rule" revisited
Replies: 102
Views: 13312

Re: The "4% Rule" revisited

To be clear, the amount withdrawn in the first year is 4% of the starting amount, and every year thereafter that exact same amount (adjusted for inflation) is withdrawn no matter what the current portfolio value is. So for our $1M example, with 2% inflation that would mean $40,800 withdrawn the sec...
by bigred77
Thu Jun 18, 2015 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "4% Rule" revisited
Replies: 102
Views: 13312

Re: The "4% Rule" revisited

The real thing to understand is that 4% is already a very conservative number... 4% worked during the Great Depression... and 3.7% worked for the unfortunate people who retired in 1966-67... 1966-1982 was 16 years of basically zero stock market gains (DOW was around 1000 in 1966 and still around 10...
by bigred77
Thu Jun 18, 2015 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "4% Rule" revisited
Replies: 102
Views: 13312

Re: The "4% Rule" revisited

I've always enjoyed Mr. Larimore's response when the subject of SWRs comes up. For those that like to debate the finer points of SWRs (which admittedly i like to do as well) in respect to backtesting, expected returns moving forward, AA in retirement, etc, I hope they will read this article a few ti...
by bigred77
Thu Jun 18, 2015 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Change of heart on bonds
Replies: 29
Views: 4385

Re: Change of heart on bonds

If most of your income comes from a young, growing small business then you are playing with fire being 100% stocks. What do you think will happen if another 2008 happens where your portfolio goes down AND your income goes down. There are not many small business (especially young ones) that don't ge...
by bigred77
Wed Jun 17, 2015 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another "Can we afford this home?" scenario
Replies: 13
Views: 2014

Re: Another "Can we afford this home?" scenario

You have great incomes and great debt-to-income ratios for highly educated young professionals (in this day and age anyway). However, you guys still have a negative net worth of about -$85,000. I wouldn't advise going out and buying a 400k house just because you CAN. If you had kids already and need...
by bigred77
Wed Jun 17, 2015 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Times changed - what next
Replies: 13
Views: 2078

Re: Times changed - what next

In your situation I would be more concerned about simplifying my life than getting an extra percentage of return on my medium term money. I would probably do the following with the 230k of cash: - I would pay off all my debt (about 68k net of the credit card you say you pay of monthly anyway). This ...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 16, 2015 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House Underwater
Replies: 22
Views: 3056

Re: House Underwater

If your numbers are accurate (and I assume your yearly taxes and insurance are equal to 3% of the house value) you have a rental property with a 10%+ cap rate. Your cash flow positive AND you'd have to bring a check to closing if you sell? Unless you have something more going on your not telling us ...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 16, 2015 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel's letter to the editor on Shiller's CAPE data problem
Replies: 14
Views: 2668

Re: Siegel's letter to the editor on Shiller's CAPE data problem

I'm all for any argument that promotes a little optimism in future equity returns vs some of the predictions I see around Bogleheads at times.
by bigred77
Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gifting Money at Parties
Replies: 220
Views: 13659

Re: Gifting Money at Parties

One other thing I learned from this thread is that baby showers after your first kid is controversial. I did not know this, I just assumed you always had a baby shower for every pregnancy. In my defense, I just finally passed the phase in my life where my immediate reaction to finding out one my fri...
by bigred77
Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gifting Money at Parties
Replies: 220
Views: 13659

Re: Gifting Money at Parties

In the last 10 years, I've been to weddings that have cost from a low of $85 per plate to a high of $400 a plate. Of course, these venues are all located in the NYC area, a well known HCOL location. The wedding industry is a complete racket here with almost everyone looking to get in on the action,...
by bigred77
Mon Jun 15, 2015 1:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gifting Money at Parties
Replies: 220
Views: 13659

Re: Gifting Money at Parties

Giving money at all may seem strange to those of us who are older, at least in the middle class. I've always just given a gift, usually something from the bridal registry. Not too long ago, under most circumstances a gift of cash could have been considered tacky at least from where I came from. It ...
by bigred77
Mon Jun 15, 2015 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gifting Money at Parties
Replies: 220
Views: 13659

Re: Gifting Money at Parties

Our wedding a few years ago cost us right around 30k for the ceremony and reception. About 250 guests. Open Bar, Very nice venue. We did not register anywhere and asked our parents to communicate we only wanted cash. We had less than 5 gifts that exceeded $100. All we're from well to do friends of m...
by bigred77
Mon Jun 15, 2015 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Investing and Age Gap
Replies: 15
Views: 2387

Re: Retirement Investing and Age Gap

I hate to be the bearer of more grim news, don't expect 8% annual returns on a nominal basis, we will be lucky if we see 6-7% annual returns. The best advice I can offer is to try and save 10% of every paycheck after you build that e-fund, use those savings to invest for retirement. Rome wasn't bui...
by bigred77
Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual stocks that have outperformed the market
Replies: 41
Views: 4212

Re: Individual stocks that have outperformed the market

Some companies are better than others. Some companies are worse than others. That's why there is an army of Ivy League MBA's that long, short, and trade those companies until they get to fair price. The odds that you can pick stocks better than these guys is pretty low. If you define "the marke...
by bigred77
Fri Jun 12, 2015 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on 401k loan for home purchase?
Replies: 29
Views: 2369

Re: Thoughts on 401k loan for home purchase?

Can you not try and negotiate the closing date of the townhouse to be once it is completed and move in ready? I'm unfamiliar with buying new construction but this must be a possibility right? If that the case you can put your current home on the market 2-3 months prior to completion and then negotia...
by bigred77
Fri Jun 05, 2015 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does too high initial house asking price kill chance at selling house?
Replies: 50
Views: 4745

Re: Does too high initial house asking price kill chance at selling house?

In my area, there is a real problem with low appraisals. People aren't selling because the appraisals are coming in so low. Here's my personal case. I put a house on the market, got three offers within two days. Accepted the cleanest full price offer. We are scheduled to close in less than a week, ...
by bigred77
Fri Jun 05, 2015 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year long hiatus from Bogleheads: How I found the 3-fund portfolio was right for me
Replies: 40
Views: 5037

Re: Year long hiatus from Bogleheads: How I found the 3-fund portfolio was right for me

The percentage of your portfolio in equities vs. fixed income and your ability to stick with whatever sub-allocations your AA consists of are far and away the biggest drivers of the returns you achieve. Sound's like you have found your comfort zone in the 3 fund portfolio. Stick with it long term now.
by bigred77
Fri Jun 05, 2015 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does too high initial house asking price kill chance at selling house?
Replies: 50
Views: 4745

Re: Does too high initial house asking price kill chance at selling house?

In my area, there is a real problem with low appraisals. People aren't selling because the appraisals are coming in so low. Here's my personal case. I put a house on the market, got three offers within two days. Accepted the cleanest full price offer. We are scheduled to close in less than a week, ...
by bigred77
Thu Jun 04, 2015 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Big Decision to Make
Replies: 58
Views: 8190

Re: Big Decision to Make

It's a different culture and a different experience.

If your wife is on board I would say do it. It would be hard to bank that kind of money anywhere else and to do it while still young would be tremendous.

If it doesn't work out you can always up and leave.
by bigred77
Wed Jun 03, 2015 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I pay off my house
Replies: 28
Views: 3043

Re: Should I pay off my house

I see no reason why you wouldn't pay it off, keep 30k or so of what's leftover in the existing savings account, and then invest the remainder in a taxable brokerage account that you now contribute to monthly (at least the same amount as the former mortgage payment).
by bigred77
Tue Jun 02, 2015 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% of year-end portfolio balance for a 35-year SWR?
Replies: 38
Views: 4979

Re: 5% of year-end portfolio balance for a 35-year SWR?

Your points about 5 yr treasury vs "long" interest rates make sense. Just noise really (when it comes to Firecalc's assumptions anyway). I suppose a variable withdrawal approach affords some extra leeway to use a higher stock/bond AA than normally recommended. You're trading less volatile ...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 02, 2015 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Half of Americans can't handle a $400 unexpected expense
Replies: 14
Views: 1732

Re: Half of Americans can't handle a $400 unexpected expense

How disheartening is this for the future? Half of the richest country can't afford a (relatively) minor expense easily. Why do you think this is disheartening for the future? It has always been true, and it will always be true that a significant portion of society lives hand to mouth.* *citation ne...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 02, 2015 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is total return vs. dividend investing?
Replies: 59
Views: 4027

Re: What is total return vs. dividend investing?

To try and put it simply: Total Return Investing is using a 3-Fund portfolio like we commonly discuss on this board. Dividend (also referred to as Income) Investing is investing in things that juice up your portfolio's yield. It's debatable what that can include but I would suggest adding a higher p...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Half of Americans can't handle a $400 unexpected expense
Replies: 14
Views: 1732

Re: Half of Americans can't handle a $400 unexpected expense

How disheartening is this for the future? Half of the richest country can't afford a (relatively) minor expense easily. Why do you think this is disheartening for the future? It has always been true, and it will always be true that a significant portion of society lives hand to mouth.* *citation ne...
by bigred77
Tue Jun 02, 2015 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paper: Two Determinants of Lifecycle Investment Success
Replies: 12
Views: 1666

Re: Paper: Two Determinants of Lifecycle Investment Success

These findings imply that defined contribution plan sponsors should encourage young workers to start contributing to their 401(k) accounts early, consistently, and at a high level. regards That's funny. So, when one is young, not earning much, thinking about buying a house, starting a family, etc, ...
by bigred77
Mon Jun 01, 2015 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Income to offset cut in hours
Replies: 5
Views: 832

Re: Income to offset cut in hours

I think you would be well served researching "total return" vs. "income" investment styles. My belief is that the boglehead consensus is that a total return approach is the way to go. If I understand correctly your intention is to take withdrawals from your portfolio to supplemen...
by bigred77
Mon Jun 01, 2015 4:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your opinion on realistic income to live in a $1 million home?
Replies: 144
Views: 11808

Re: Your opinion on realistic income to live in a $1 million home?

For 99% of people in their 20's the definition of "financially independent" is "My parents don't pay for anything anymore" and even then sometimes they mean "except my car insurance and/or cell phone bill that's still on the family plan". I wouldn't give the OP too hard...
by bigred77
Mon Jun 01, 2015 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% of year-end portfolio balance for a 35-year SWR?
Replies: 38
Views: 4979

Re: 5% of year-end portfolio balance for a 35-year SWR?

That Firecalc data set assumes you keep a 75/25 portfolio throughout retirement and also links your fixed income returns to the "Long Interest Rate" which I assume means your fixed income is in Long Term Treasuries.

Are you prepared to hold that type of portfolio throughout retirement?
by bigred77
Mon Jun 01, 2015 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to furnish a new residence, completely from scratch
Replies: 35
Views: 3026

Re: How to furnish a new residence, completely from scratch

When we first moved into a 850ish sq ft condo and had nothing, we bought low priced furniture to furnish the whole thing from Roomstore with my first bonus and everything broke or looked horrible within 3 years. When we moved into our first house, we didn't have much left that we wanted to take with...
by bigred77
Thu May 28, 2015 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BMW needs new tires
Replies: 24
Views: 2190

Re: BMW needs new tires

just put new tires on a bmw. got rid of the run flats and bought conventional eagle Goodyear. ride improvement tremendous. put two cans of leak seal in trunk with portable inflation machine and plug kit. all bought on amazon. Never realized how harsh the ride was with run flat tires. used tirerack....
by bigred77
Fri May 22, 2015 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Advice: Follow "Passion" or Follow the Money?
Replies: 73
Views: 4690

Re: Career Advice: Follow "Passion" or Follow the Money?

LOL 105K not enough Your post is well written, thoughtful. Perhaps explain more to us about your unmet [i]financial needs[i] Please explain what better quality of life is to you? In what way will material things make you less miserable? Why must you wait five years to loosen the belt? On the unmet ...
by bigred77
Thu May 21, 2015 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if the US stock market was only 25% of the world by market cap?
Replies: 37
Views: 2739

Re: What if the US stock market was only 25% of the world by market cap?

I'd be somewhere between 50/50 and market cap weighting. - Did the US Markets completely melt down Japan Style over a multi-year time horizon (maybe a war or something) or did Foreign Markets skyrocket through the roof? Doesn't really have to be either. If the US grows at 2% and ex-US at 6% (in USD...
by bigred77
Thu May 21, 2015 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Article on Drawdowns (the real returns)
Replies: 17
Views: 1304

Re: Article on Drawdowns (the real returns)

I get it... the article is showing that over a cherry picked 15 yr. time frame that included 2 VERY bad Bear markets in this country that an investment that was not dollar cost averaged, and made only in the S&P 500, would have a low, positive, real return. It does indeed demonstrate how volatil...
by bigred77
Thu May 21, 2015 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if the US stock market was only 25% of the world by market cap?
Replies: 37
Views: 2739

Re: What if the US stock market was only 25% of the world by market cap?

Excellent Question... - Did the US Markets completely melt down Japan Style over a multi-year time horizon (maybe a war or something) or did Foreign Markets skyrocket through the roof? I think regardless I probably wouldn't move past 50/50. I would still be expecting some reversion to the mean unles...
by bigred77
Thu May 21, 2015 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Invest in Mutual Funds or Pay off house?
Replies: 7
Views: 635

Re: Invest in Mutual Funds or Pay off house?

5k to the mortgage
5k to mutual funds
2k vacation each and every month
by bigred77
Thu May 21, 2015 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Friends/Family that don't invest!
Replies: 94
Views: 11240

Re: Friends/Family that don't invest!

I used to be very frustrated because I had all this new knowledge and insight about personal finance and investing, which I was very excited to discuss, and no one in my extended family was capable/willing to have a discussion. My Dad has a paid off place to live but told me he refuses to ever inves...
by bigred77
Thu May 14, 2015 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Student Loan Repayment ? - How would you pay it back?
Replies: 14
Views: 1513

Re: Student Loan Repayment ? - How would you pay it back?

What's your income look like? I may be tempted to pay off the 15k loan first and then line them up and knock them down by interest rates. Where are you getting these unique financial products??? Loan that drops to < 1% after 4 years, loan 2 looks like it has a maximum monthly payment (prepayment pen...

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