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Re: Slice and Dicers -- Plans when you can't manage it anymo

My thoughts. Unless you are on the brink of being incapacitated, I wouldn't worry too much about the 3-fund vs s/d decision. ⋅  S/D isn't much more work - If I had to guess, most boglehead portfolio (aside from target date funds) requires basically the same amount of work. There's some st...
by bertilak
Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Slice and Dicers -- Plans when you can't manage it anymore?
Replies: 38
Views: 2093

Re: Slice and Dicers -- Plans when you can't manage it anymo

I had the same concern and reduced my six or seven fund portfolio to two funds, figuring that would be simple enough. I used Wellesley and Wellington at 50/50 each to get the 50/50 stock/bond AA I feel is appropriate. I figured that without rebalancing things wouldn't drift too far from a 50/50 AA a...
by bertilak
Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Slice and Dicers -- Plans when you can't manage it anymore?
Replies: 38
Views: 2093

Re: Poll - Do you use Quicken?

I'm pretty good with Excel. But I use quicken because 1. 1-click update accounts 2. can input gross income and split into many categories, which helps income tax planning 3. net worth report 4. monthly income/expense report 5. update investments using the latest prices All that is nice but there ar...
by bertilak
Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Poll - Do you use Quicken?
Replies: 63
Views: 2687

Re: Do you "Tax Adjust" your Asset Allocation (Pre vs Roth,

There is no reason to take taxes into account when you are talking about AA. The risk is determined by the AA and the AA is unaffected by what will eventually become of some portion of the assets. Let's try this though process. Suppose you and I form a 50/50 partnership to invest in a super safe go...
by bertilak
Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you "Tax Adjust" your Asset Allocation (Pre vs Roth, etc)
Replies: 76
Views: 3203

Re: Do you "Tax Adjust" your Asset Allocation (Pre vs Roth,

If you are trying to match this on your own and all your bonds are in a 401k and all your stocks are in taxable you need to take account of the fact that the some of the balance in the 401k represent accrued taxes and you need to make an adjustment. That's the part I simply don't agree with (or per...
by bertilak
Mon Jul 21, 2014 4:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you "Tax Adjust" your Asset Allocation (Pre vs Roth, etc)
Replies: 76
Views: 3203

Re: Poll - Do you use Quicken?

The first paycheck that shows up in my Quicken data is January 1991. That's over 23 years ago. Pretty much every income or expense since then has gone into Quicken. I also back-filled major expenses to 1985. For example all mortgage and tax payments. I'm not sure how I could stop since nearly everyt...
by bertilak
Mon Jul 21, 2014 1:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Poll - Do you use Quicken?
Replies: 63
Views: 2687

Re: Do you "Tax Adjust" your Asset Allocation (Pre vs Roth,

Asset allocation is not about an income stream it is about the risk in your portfolio. ... Adjusting your AA for taxes is just acknowledging that some of the balance in your accounts is accrued taxes that belong not to you but to the guv. I see a contradiction in the above. I agree AA is all about ...
by bertilak
Mon Jul 21, 2014 1:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you "Tax Adjust" your Asset Allocation (Pre vs Roth, etc)
Replies: 76
Views: 3203

Re: how often do you look at your account

I guess it is daily because that's how often I use Quicken and the account data gets downloaded and displayed along with everything else (bank accounts, credit cards, etc.)

I'd have to go out of my way to NOT see it.
by bertilak
Sun Jul 20, 2014 7:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: how often do you look at your account
Replies: 70
Views: 3519

Re: My quarterly update on 2014's sure things

Just thought I'd give this a bump.

Larry provides a service here for all those who get nervous (or excited) about market predictions. They seem to be, at best, no better than random.

Thanks Larry!
by bertilak
Sun Jul 20, 2014 6:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My quarterly update on 2014's sure things
Replies: 6
Views: 2024

Re: Do you "Tax Adjust" your Asset Allocation (Pre vs Roth,

I personally don't adjust asset location based on bonds/stocks, etc. In other words, contrary to several here, I don't put all my bonds in tax advantaged. So, hence, I maintain an equal allocation in all accts (roths, tax deferred, and taxable all are 60/40) However, i would find it very interestin...
by bertilak
Sun Jul 20, 2014 5:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you "Tax Adjust" your Asset Allocation (Pre vs Roth, etc)
Replies: 76
Views: 3203

Re: Do you "Tax Adjust" your Asset Allocation (Pre vs Roth,

50/50 because I look at it from a full portfolio view and consider the cash flow the portfolio needs to provide. The portfolio's AA has little or nothing to do with how I will spend the money (taxes vs the "good stuff"). It is only concerned about the risk/reward ratio and its ability to s...
by bertilak
Sun Jul 20, 2014 3:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you "Tax Adjust" your Asset Allocation (Pre vs Roth, etc)
Replies: 76
Views: 3203

Re: Jeremy Grantham pokes holes in EMH

I think everyone wants to own the quality stocks low debt, stable earnings, consistent sales and earnings growth. I think there are many for whom that is not true. Just look at all the advertising aimed at people who want to "beat the market." Look at the success of books like How to Make...
by bertilak
Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham pokes holes in EMH
Replies: 16
Views: 2138

Re: Financial Adviser usage? (vs. 3-fund)

My thoughts: ⋅ I would use one of the advisors who post here if I needed to set up something for some other person, someone who, unlike me, was not willing to learn what is needed in order to do the simple thing. As simple as things can be, it takes a bit more than a simple understanding t...
by bertilak
Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Advisor usage? (vs. 3-fund)
Replies: 9
Views: 1159

Re: Complete Portfolio Rebalancing: Lump or DCA?

Good Work! One distinction I would make is that paycheck-by-paycheck (PBP?) investing and holding back a lump sum, although both called DCA, are not at all the same thing. PBP is actually a series of LS investments. The key is that one invests all that one can as soon as one can. It is the "hol...
by bertilak
Sun Jul 20, 2014 6:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Complete Portfolio Rebalancing: Lump or DCA?
Replies: 9
Views: 930

Re: I was tempted to market time and didn't

Brian2d wrote:I'm feeling a bit ... of regret for not taking action on my hunch that the market would rebound from the events of Thursday.

Could be the next time you have a strong hunch and ignore it you will feel relief. Ya just can't tell ahead of time.
by bertilak
Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I was tempted to market time and didn't
Replies: 19
Views: 1804

Re: Japan's Lost Decades in One Chart

whaleknives wrote:Why does the U.S. data stop 10 years before Japan's?

I expect the US data stops shortly before the date the chart was made.

The two plots do not line up at the same years, but at the point where the CAPE ratios peaked. It just hasn't been that long for the US.

At least that's how I read the chart.
by bertilak
Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan's Lost Decades in One Chart
Replies: 23
Views: 2844

Re: Hospital bill negotiation

toofache32 wrote:
denovo wrote:
Res ipsa loquitur


Although I live in Texas, I don't speak Spanish. Can someone translate?

I'll bet there's a Google in Texas ...

Image

Although I don't see the relevance.
by bertilak
Sat Jul 19, 2014 6:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hospital bill negotiation
Replies: 49
Views: 4013

Re: To Tilt or Not to Tilt - Rick Ferri's Latest

If I interpret both of those statements correctly, it seems a more straightforward way to get higher potential (aka expected) returns would be to increase your allocation to equities without any tilt. I don't think your idea is going to gain much traction. At the heart of every "tilt" is ...
by bertilak
Fri Jul 18, 2014 2:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To Tilt or Not to Tilt - Rick Ferri's Latest
Replies: 72
Views: 6470

Re: To Tilt or Not to Tilt - Rick Ferri's Latest

Leeraar wrote:Does someone have the address of that crystal ball repair shop? :P :P


I prefer the Lucile Ball.
by bertilak
Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To Tilt or Not to Tilt - Rick Ferri's Latest
Replies: 72
Views: 6470

Re: To Tilt or Not to Tilt - Rick Ferri's Latest

Rick's article makes two statements (My numbering. These statements are widely separated in the article.) ⋅ ... some practitioners claim this method [SCV tilt] is a more efficient way to invest in that it provides a free lunch, i.e., higher returns without higher risk. ⋅ ... pote...
by bertilak
Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To Tilt or Not to Tilt - Rick Ferri's Latest
Replies: 72
Views: 6470

Re: What Do You Tilt to Outside of the Three Fund (at least

Other: Large Value.

That may be the most important category left off. It includes Wellington and Wellesely.
by bertilak
Fri Jul 18, 2014 10:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What Do You Tilt to Outside of the Three Fund (at least 4%)?
Replies: 25
Views: 1381

Re: Withdrawl from Target Retirement or Life Strategy Fund

It isn't reverse market timing, it's simply rebalancing. With a TR fund, the rebalancing is done daily, but as the fund shrinks, the loss is coming from equity, so equity is added every day to maintain the AA. In a rising market, equity surges and some is moved to the bond side to keep the AA, but ...
by bertilak
Thu Jul 17, 2014 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Withdrawl from Target Retirement or Life Strategy Fund
Replies: 11
Views: 982

Re: Hospital bill negotiation

I negotiated twice, both satisfactorily. ⋅ When my wife had her first child we got to the hospital at about ten minutes to midnight. She left the hospital the very next day. The hospital charged us for two days stay! They also charged us for the use of the prenatal (or whatever they calle...
by bertilak
Wed Jul 16, 2014 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hospital bill negotiation
Replies: 49
Views: 4013

Re: Hospital bill negotiation

I negotiated twice, both satisfactorily. ⋅ When my wife had her first child we got to the hospital at about ten minutes to midnight. She left the hospital the very next day. The hospital charged us for two days stay! They also charged us for the use of the prenatal (or whatever they called...
by bertilak
Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:37 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hospital bill negotiation
Replies: 49
Views: 4013

Re: Why I can't be a day trader.

Crow Hunter wrote:But I am honestly not sure if that is how any of it will work. (This is my first experience with a brokerage account and inherited IRAs)

You could call VG and ask.
by bertilak
Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:16 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why I can't be a day trader.
Replies: 38
Views: 2931

Re: Why does anyone use American Express?

I needed to go on a last-minute business trip. It was a rush to get packed and get on the road in time to make it to the airport. On the way to the airport, and too late to turn around, I realized I had forgotten my wallet! :oops: I stopped at a pay phone and called the AMEX 800 number to ask for he...
by bertilak
Tue Jul 15, 2014 3:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why does anyone use American Express?
Replies: 146
Views: 21990

Re: POLL: Emerging Markets Tilt

I'd be curious if there was a poll option for underweighting emerging markets (which I do, but as much or more because of available investment vehicles in my retirement accounts as any philosophical decision). I also underweight EM (and international) since I am basically Large US Value all the way...
by bertilak
Tue Jul 15, 2014 10:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: POLL: Emerging Markets Tilt
Replies: 12
Views: 747

Re: A study on active management

Here (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jofi.12048/abstract) is a paper with a different outlook. Abstract To rationalize the well-known underperformance of the average actively managed mutual fund, we exploit the fact that retail funds in different market segments compete for different typ...
by bertilak
Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A study on active management
Replies: 2
Views: 599

Re: "Stocks and shares," different things? "Peter Pan"

I've always understood it as a British/American thing. But like many terms that are supposedly used differently in the two places, they are blurred in their actual usage. I find the best way to think of them is generic/specific as mentioned in schuyler74's post. Here's an example: Q: "Do you o...
by bertilak
Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks and shares," different things? "Peter Pan"
Replies: 39
Views: 2783

Re: "Stocks and shares," different things? "Peter Pan"

From http://www.qfinance.com/dictionary/stocks-and-shares the units of ownership in public companies. The technical difference between stocks and shares is that a company that fixes its capital in terms of a monetary amount and then sells different proportions of it to investors creates stock, while...
by bertilak
Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks and shares," different things? "Peter Pan"
Replies: 39
Views: 2783

Re: close to retirement investment question

Hi. My wife and I are within roughly 4-5 years of retirement age. If we could get a return of approximately 6%, we would be more than happy based upon our current financial situation. We currently have funds in Vanguard, Fidelity, and invested with Chase. First question is that is it reasonable to ...
by bertilak
Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: close to retirement investment question
Replies: 6
Views: 1312

Re: Assisted Living Residence and Care Agreement - Questions

Both my parents were in various assisted living facilities. The facilities are licensed for different levels of care from essentially a long term stay hotel/motel up to Alzheimer's care. Some residents had cars and drove themselves around and others were mostly bed-ridden. In our case there was a ba...
by bertilak
Sat Jul 12, 2014 6:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Assisted Living Residence and Care Agreement - Questions
Replies: 30
Views: 2790

Re: What to invest in with Vanguard?

In reality, it doesn't make a lot of difference, but the 80/20 fund should at least give a little smoother ride than the 90/10. I look at it this way: ⋅ The 90/10 fund offsets 10 of the 90 stock percentage points leaving 80 points at the full mercy of the stock market. ⋅ The 80/...
by bertilak
Sat Jul 12, 2014 1:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to invest in with Vanguard?
Replies: 19
Views: 2667

Re: True or False? Your risk tolerance only increases with t

What's important is risk capacity . Risk Capacity is an objective , even if estimated, value. It depends on: How much you have How much you need How much you expect to save before you will start spending what you have How much time you have The confidence you place in these estimates (and maybe more...
by bertilak
Fri Jul 11, 2014 8:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: True or False? Your risk tolerance only increases with time
Replies: 30
Views: 2325

Re: To LMP or Not to LMP? [Liability Matching Portfolio]

Richard, I am a big fan of LMP. I also believe that if you have "enough" things become non-critical. Even so, I am still a fan of LMP as a planning tool. Looking at things from an LMP perspective gives one a better feel for just how far ahead of the game you are. It may show that that it w...
by bertilak
Fri Jul 11, 2014 4:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To LMP or Not to LMP? [Liability Matching Portfolio]
Replies: 11
Views: 1853

Re: Urban garden bed--ideas to deter dog owners

Did you put up signs that state that no dog pooping is allowed? Perhaps with video surveillance, too? I didn't read the rest of this thread so may have missed this ... It is probably more important to have a sign that says "You are under video surveillance" than it is to have an actual ca...
by bertilak
Fri Jul 11, 2014 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Urban garden bed--ideas to deter dog owners
Replies: 44
Views: 3842

Re: Analysis Paralysis has set in....

Things depend a bit on how easily your investments are meeting that 50% income you need them to supply. Is there enough left over to keep the portfolio growing to cover inflation, market crashes and other potential contingencies? (For example I just had a $20K expense crop up due to a failed septic ...
by bertilak
Fri Jul 11, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Analysis Paralysis has set in....
Replies: 7
Views: 658

Re: What to invest in with Vanguard?

Use the link below to help you decide your stock/bond ratio. Then select the Target Fund with the nearest stock/bond ratio you decided. Knowledgeable investors ignore the target date . Get Your Mutual Fund Recommendation Taylor, I agree that the target date is not enough to come up with an AA, but ...
by bertilak
Thu Jul 10, 2014 8:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to invest in with Vanguard?
Replies: 19
Views: 2667

Re: Online classes?

You are right to ask because you need to be careful.

My guess is that many of the courses offered are really sales pitches for things you shouldn't touch. Even if you are not taken in, it is a waste of time.
by bertilak
Thu Jul 10, 2014 8:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Online classes?
Replies: 7
Views: 1036

Re: List of Worst financial advice (what not to do):

Only the rich can afford to invest. A good one. Those claiming that generally divide the population into two groups: rich and destitute, leaving out the vast middle ground. Put your money under the mattress. We all know it is better to bury it in the back yard. Along with the gold. (Just kidding!)
by bertilak
Thu Jul 10, 2014 8:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: List of Worst financial advice (what not to do):
Replies: 127
Views: 13778

Re: What to invest in with Vanguard?

I've been looking at the Target Retirement Fund, but I'm not sure if I want the 2040, which is 90% stocks 10% bonds. That seems kind of risky to me. Are there other better options that I should consider? I can sympathize with thinking that 90/10 is a bit risky. There are well respected experts, and...
by bertilak
Thu Jul 10, 2014 7:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to invest in with Vanguard?
Replies: 19
Views: 2667

Re: List of Worst financial advice (what not to do):

nisiprius wrote:He had a completely straight face. I will NEVER know whether he was joking or whether you can actually get a Staples service contract on 33.9 ounces of Folger's. It might have been worth the price of the contract just to find out.

Well, if it covers spills AND burns then maybe ...
by bertilak
Wed Jul 09, 2014 10:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: List of Worst financial advice (what not to do):
Replies: 127
Views: 13778

Re: Toys for a Lazy Cat

Lots of info on why canned food is better than dry: http://www.catforum.com/forum/38-health-nutrition/75458-info-links-why-canned-better-than-all-dry-diet.html Summary: cats don't get enough water otherwise and they are obligate carnivores. The thing is, my at won't eat canned food. Dry only. Also ...
by bertilak
Wed Jul 09, 2014 8:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Toys for a Lazy Cat
Replies: 46
Views: 2872

Re: List of Worst financial advice (what not to do):

.... I could not get my "Wealth Manager" to articulate an overall plan or strategy his advice fit into. He didn't even seem to understand what I was asking for. Actually, I didn't make it to Bogleland right away. I simply jumped ship into deep waters and had to splash around on my own for...
by bertilak
Wed Jul 09, 2014 7:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: List of Worst financial advice (what not to do):
Replies: 127
Views: 13778

Re: List of Worst financial advice (what not to do):

Some employer's only match per paycheck, not per year. So if you filled up your 401k early, you would not receive the full match. Quite true. My company's plan was clever enough to put that on autopilot so we would reach the full match before running out of room. Originally we had to manage that on...
by bertilak
Wed Jul 09, 2014 7:42 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: List of Worst financial advice (what not to do):
Replies: 127
Views: 13778

Re: Toys for a Lazy Cat

One more thing is that I add water to the food as cats tend not to drink water. That must be a cat-by-cat thing. My cat loves water. We have two bowls in the house and one outside. After a shower she laps up puddles in the shower stall. After a rain she goes for the puddles on the driveway. It is p...
by bertilak
Wed Jul 09, 2014 6:48 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Toys for a Lazy Cat
Replies: 46
Views: 2872

Re: List of Worst financial advice (what not to do):

"Superior portfolio performance will more than pay my fees" ... Financial Advisor I've been given that advice in spades. Along with it, these two: ⋅ "Buy this fund with a 6.5% front end load because once you are into the fund family you can switch around from fund to fund f...
by bertilak
Wed Jul 09, 2014 6:31 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: List of Worst financial advice (what not to do):
Replies: 127
Views: 13778

Re: In Which Theories Should I Have Confidence?

Some people are really better off owning the simplest strategy possible because they really do not like thinking about any of this stuff. And that is fine. But others don't want that much simplicity. They want to make things slightly more complicated, because they enjoy thinking about these things ...
by bertilak
Tue Jul 08, 2014 3:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In Which Theories Should I Have Confidence?
Replies: 43
Views: 4193

Re: Take the money and run? (Pension Buyout Offer)

What are the tax consequences of the 20K?
by bertilak
Tue Jul 08, 2014 2:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Take the money and run? (Pension Buyout Offer)
Replies: 15
Views: 1997

Re: stocks about to plunge

There was some weakness in 2013 but by September my indicators were suggesting it was still too early to call, which looks to have been correct. My current data suggests we're still in a period of market order that started July 2011. Latest crash indicator reading is only 14.29/100 (over 30 is usua...
by bertilak
Tue Jul 08, 2014 2:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stocks about to plunge
Replies: 39
Views: 7656
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