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Re: Thinking about retiring early - tell me what I've missed

Is the $600k windfall from the sale of the house? If you are already at 2.1M why sale of house only leave you with $2.0M liquid? Assume by liquid you mean taxable account? Does this imply you have a tax deferred account? I don't think it is clear what your presumed withdrawal rate is factoring in ta...
by bb
Tue Apr 22, 2014 7:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about retiring early - tell me what I've missed
Replies: 24
Views: 2164

Re: Liability Matching Portfoloio

Bill, Would be interested in your thoughts on three fund portfolio at say a 2 to 2.5% withdrawal rate. Sounds as if you still feel there is a qualitative difference between LMP vs traditional balanced portfolio approach. Assume you mentioned 1% withdrawal as acceptable because you have such a high c...
by bb
Fri Apr 04, 2014 4:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Liability Matching Portfoloio
Replies: 15
Views: 873

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

The Retirement Calculator from Hell, Part III:

http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/901/hell3.htm

Thus, any estimate of long-term financial success greater than about 80% is meaningless.
by bb
Sun Mar 30, 2014 10:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 12898

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

This whole thread is predicated on a strict definition of need and how to guarantee that. I am curious for the folks on this board the comparison to absolute need in retirement vs the amount folks would like to spend in retirement (want) and how much flexibility (%) can be reduced if necessary. Beli...
by bb
Sun Mar 30, 2014 12:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 12898

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

t is astonishing to read things posted - that readers may take as factual - without a single reference. you should save 20 to 25 times your residual living expenses http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/04/retirement/investing-mistakes.moneymag/ Warren Buffett, as so often has, put it best when referring to...
by bb
Sat Mar 29, 2014 10:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 12898

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

I don't necessarily think that what Bernstein said about having 100% in fixed income for those with $1 million contradicts the total AA approach. His example was for someone who needed a 50K (5% of their assets) a year. I would not be comfortable using the AA approach at that withdrawal rate. A 4 o...
by bb
Fri Mar 28, 2014 8:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 12898

Re: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep pla

So let's you you have 1M portfolio. You need 20k/year. Bernstein's
advice was to put 1/2 in safe investments (LMP) and take risk with
the other 1/2 if you so choose.

In this scenario why is it so much better than just going with a stock/bond
portfolio.
by bb
Thu Mar 27, 2014 10:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep playing
Replies: 241
Views: 25055

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

I wonder if people are talking past each other in this thread. Bernstein attempts to define a SWR and a plan to accomplish it. His definition is money you absolutely need - black and white. What has generally been discussed on this forum is SWR as a planning tool - not gospel - and having flexibilit...
by bb
Thu Mar 27, 2014 10:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 12898

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

This seems like an argument between optimizing for one variable (lowest risk of running out of retirement assets) vs optimizing among several variables (balance between higher standard of living, working fewer years, etc). Berstein's views are 100% contradictory to what has mostly been discussed on ...
by bb
Thu Mar 27, 2014 10:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 12898

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

Agree with sentiment of OP. For quite a while rule of thumb of SWR has been discussed with implicit assumption that fixed portion of portfolio allows one to weather the risk of equities. Now discussion comes along and says if you only have 25 times needed expenses then none of that can be at risk. R...
by bb
Thu Mar 27, 2014 11:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 12898

Re: Cars: Lease vs. buy. (Similar to houses? rent vs. buy?)

A dealer relative of mine said why would you ever own a depreciating asset?


I love that line. If I lease instead of buying I wonder who pays for that depreciation...
maybe Santa Claus?
by bb
Sat Mar 22, 2014 7:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cars: Lease vs. buy. (Similar to houses? rent vs. buy?)
Replies: 47
Views: 2935

Re: SWR w/current projected stock/bond returns

Part of the reason I ask about the SWR taking into consideration low projected returns of the market because I have heard it state so many times that the current dividend yield is much lower than the historical average. Maybe I have been incorrectly assuming that the majority of the previous stock m...
by bb
Sun Mar 09, 2014 9:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR w/current projected stock/bond returns
Replies: 19
Views: 1068

SWR w/current projected stock/bond returns

So if the expected real return on stocks is gong to be in the neighborhood of 4% and the real return on bonds is going to be essentially 0-1% what would would be a stab at a safe withdrawal rate of a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio? Starting to wonder if all the discussions on SWR have been predicated on...
by bb
Sun Mar 09, 2014 5:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR w/current projected stock/bond returns
Replies: 19
Views: 1068

where did the dividend money go?

I have read John Bogle say numerous times the best way to predict future stock market returns is to add the dividend yield to the expected growth in earnings. Since dividends are much lower than they were historically the expected return of the market would be projected to be lower by the same amoun...
by bb
Sun Mar 09, 2014 3:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: where did the dividend money go?
Replies: 8
Views: 1262

Re: Replace less than 80% of income in retirement?

Not sure why it is not possible to construct a "straw man" spending profile of a presumably middle class lifestyle. Seems like it would be possible to do that for today and project inflation of 2-3% per year going forward. It has to be possible to put a rough estimate for food/shelter/clot...
by bb
Sat Mar 08, 2014 2:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Replace less than 80% of income in retirement?
Replies: 52
Views: 3308

Re: Would you retire like this?

This sort of reads like I am tired of working and want to retire - but I don't have enough money
to retire. Get in line.
by bb
Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you retire like this?
Replies: 72
Views: 6730

Re: Financial Independence: Index Investing vs. Real Estate

I agree that real estate a a job. But if you follow the discussions of safe withdrawal
rates the number is quite low - 4% or less. So working in a real estate job might be more
attractive than working several more years for a megacorp.
by bb
Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financial Independence: Index Investing vs. Real Estate
Replies: 9
Views: 1108

Re: average saving rate affect on ability to retire

Since retired people do not produce but only consume they can only consume what is left after the productive portion of the economy takes what it needs. Essentially the goods and services allocated to the retired will be priced to clear the market. So the quality of your retirement, i.e. what your ...
by bb
Fri Feb 14, 2014 7:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: average saving rate affect on ability to retire
Replies: 27
Views: 3451

Re: average saving rate affect on ability to retire

I generally think of my ability to retire is determined by some
notional SWR and current account balance.

How does what age other people retire factor into this?

Where is the dependency on the average retirement age on SWR
and projected stock/bond prices or the cost of goods?

Brian
by bb
Fri Feb 14, 2014 2:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: average saving rate affect on ability to retire
Replies: 27
Views: 3451

Re: average saving rate affect on ability to retire

I guess I follow the uber simple example. But lets say we have 10 people. person #1: age 90-100 person #2: age 80-90 etc Let's say a few raise food, a few do other jobs. So it is not clear to me just becuase people start to retire at 80 in stead of 90 that the price of food has to go up. Productivit...
by bb
Fri Feb 14, 2014 7:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: average saving rate affect on ability to retire
Replies: 27
Views: 3451

Re: average saving rate affect on ability to retire

Reminder - please don't discuss politics, social policy, etc. Just trying to make sense of
Bernstein's assertion.

Thanks,

Brian
by bb
Thu Feb 13, 2014 1:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: average saving rate affect on ability to retire
Replies: 27
Views: 3451

average saving rate affect on ability to retire

In Bernstein's article: "Retirement Calculator from Hell, Part IV: A Nation of Wal-Mart Greeters" http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/103/hell4.htm It is stated: If you want to retire early, what matters is not how much you save, but how much more than everyone else you save. I was wonderi...
by bb
Thu Feb 13, 2014 9:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: average saving rate affect on ability to retire
Replies: 27
Views: 3451

Re: $23K 2009 Lexus IS 250 AWD V-6 Miles 33K Certified.

Toyota made changes to 2014.5 Camry to address poor small offset crash test
results.
by bb
Sat Jan 04, 2014 1:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $23K 2009 Lexus IS 250 AWD V-6 Miles 33K Certified.
Replies: 18
Views: 1813

After tax contributions to 401k

I have been contributing after tax to my employer 401k. Rationale was would need large enough tax deferred for fixed income to offset stocks in taxable index funds. I can withdraw the funds but get suspended from the 4% employer match for 6 months. Thoughts on: - contributing after tax money if you ...
by bb
Sun Oct 13, 2013 9:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: After tax contributions to 401k
Replies: 1
Views: 281

Re: Which is the better car deal?

Thanks for everyone's input. I realize now the question I should have been
how much extra should I budget for the BMW (guestimate) over the Camry
for 10 years of ownership.

Edmunds only goes out first 5 years of ownership.

Then I can decide if the extra money would be worth it to me.

Brian
by bb
Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:21 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which is the better car deal?
Replies: 38
Views: 2557

Re: Which is the better car deal?

Guess my original post just should have asked for any guesses as to how much more the BMW would cost over the Camry for 10 years of ownership of both. For the first 5 years the BMW is covered and I would not expect any significant repairs for the Camry. The 5 years after that what would be a reasona...
by bb
Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which is the better car deal?
Replies: 38
Views: 2557

Re: Which is the better car deal?

I saw the car in the dealers show room this spring before it sold - it is not a flood car - bought and traded back to the same dealer (we did not have a flood). Guess my bias is the BMW is a better car - in terms of features and driving characteristics. But since I also don't care to throw my money ...
by bb
Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which is the better car deal?
Replies: 38
Views: 2557

Re: Which is the better car deal?

Speaking financially - say I keep both cars 10 years. I generally make the assumption that
a car is worthless after 10 years (road salt = rust).

So just straight cost of the car per year camry is $2.4K/yr and the BMW is $3K/yr -
does not seem like a big difference.
by bb
Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which is the better car deal?
Replies: 38
Views: 2557

Re: Which is the better car deal?

Well - I only need to carry 2 people. The camry is a 4 cylinder which I am not in love with. To upgrade to the 6 cylinder in the camry you are probably at $30k. So from a feature standpoint the BMW seems like more car for the money. I generally keep cars until they die but don't really plan my auto ...
by bb
Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which is the better car deal?
Replies: 38
Views: 2557

Which is the better car deal?

2011 BMW 328xi, 9k miles, 17/25 mpg, premium unleaded, owned 6 months, 3.5 years base warranty + 2 years certifiedpreowned warranty, $30K (value package, premium package, xenon headlights) 2014 Camry XLE, 25/35 mpg, regular unleaded, 4 cylinder, new, 3 year warranty, $24K For the sake of the discuss...
by bb
Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which is the better car deal?
Replies: 38
Views: 2557

Re: Beef brisket

http://virtualweberbullet.com/

bogleheads and this site best of the best IMHO
by bb
Sun Jun 16, 2013 9:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Beef brisket
Replies: 53
Views: 5722

Re: Can I retire - single person version

No dissenting opinions?
by bb
Sat May 18, 2013 7:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire - single person version
Replies: 38
Views: 3794

Re: 6 years in the trenches - what did it get me?

Once again proving hindsight is 20/20 !
by bb
Sat Mar 09, 2013 1:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 6 years in the trenches - what did it get me?
Replies: 9
Views: 1266

Re: The perfect Boglehead car

Sunny Sarkar wrote:In 2002, I bought a 5 year old Toyota Camry with 55k miles on it for $9000 ...


Local dealer is showing a 2007 Camry, 55k miles for $12.9K.

Buying a used car based on the prices I have seen makes no
sense.
by bb
Sat Feb 09, 2013 1:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The perfect Boglehead car
Replies: 92
Views: 8130

Re: 401(k) risk

I don't see how it is posible to read that article and not get angry.
by bb
Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401(k) risk
Replies: 22
Views: 2438

Re: When can one determine if they can afford toys?

+1 for cheaper fun car or find a daily driver you also consider fun - although that
would rule out a classic car.
by bb
Thu Aug 16, 2012 8:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When can one determine if they can afford toys?
Replies: 40
Views: 6040

Re: Do we have enough to retire?

http://assetbuilder.com/blogs/scott_burns/archive/2012/07/20/how-much-is-a-future-year-worth.aspx Somehow, it doesn’t seem sensible to be 95 percent prepared for something you only have an18 percent chance of experiencing. Honk if you feel the same way Scott Burns seems to present a somewhat balanc...
by bb
Mon Aug 13, 2012 11:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do we have enough to retire?
Replies: 29
Views: 4693

Re: Save $2K On 2012 Certified Used Car, worth it?

Yea - next year - the other issue I struggle with. For 2014 the next gen of the gti is supposed to be out with significantly more power, lighter weight, and expectations of same price (my opinion) based on cheaper for VW to produce. But my 2001 vehicle is rusting out hence I don't really want to put...
by bb
Sun Aug 05, 2012 7:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Save $2K On 2012 Certified Used Car, worth it?
Replies: 23
Views: 1624

Re: Save $2K On 2012 Certified Used Car, worth it?

New: $23.8K

That price is (dealer invoice - destination fee).
by bb
Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Save $2K On 2012 Certified Used Car, worth it?
Replies: 23
Views: 1624

Re: Jack Bogle on Long-Term Returns for Stocks, Bonds

At one point Jack Bogle states nominal returns will be 5% and then later states real returns
will be 5%. I believe in earlier pieces he has indicated he project real returns of around
4-5% for 50/50 stock/bond portfolio.
by bb
Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle on Long-Term Returns for Stocks, Bonds
Replies: 35
Views: 6042

Re: Save $2K On 2012 Certified Used Car, worth it?

I don't believe any of the 3 listings I have encountered were dealer demos - all 3 were private party sales. Granted as a requirement of purchase I may personally need to be able to speak to the previous owner before feeling comfortable with the car - in cases where that is not possible then quite p...
by bb
Sun Aug 05, 2012 8:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Save $2K On 2012 Certified Used Car, worth it?
Replies: 23
Views: 1624

Re: Save $2K On 2012 Certified Used Car, worth it?

I put the value of the extended warranty at $500-$1000. It is really the combination of the
purchase price discount + extended warranty that has me considering this. Probably a little
apprehension on my part regarding VW that makes the extended warranty attractive.
by bb
Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Save $2K On 2012 Certified Used Car, worth it?
Replies: 23
Views: 1624

Re: Save $2K On 2012 Certified Used Car, worth it?

Is there a general thought that there must be something wrong with used cars
that are only a 12 months or less old or is the thought that assume there was
something wrong because it is out of the ordinary unless the reason can be
verified.
by bb
Sat Aug 04, 2012 8:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Save $2K On 2012 Certified Used Car, worth it?
Replies: 23
Views: 1624

Re: Save $2K On 2012 Certified Used Car, worth it?

All right - no laughing - VW GTI 6-speed manual - I know - a very un-bogleheadish car choice! No need to finance. Several listings with around the same mileage. Listing #1: ------------- Employee of dealer bought the car and then traded 4 months later for the same car - said dealership needed to mak...
by bb
Sat Aug 04, 2012 8:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Save $2K On 2012 Certified Used Car, worth it?
Replies: 23
Views: 1624

Save $2K On 2012 Certified Used Car, worth it?

New:
$23.8K
3 year/36K bumper to bumper manufacturer's warranty

2012 CPO:
5K miles, $21.8K, 2 years of original warrany + 2 years/24K extended
manufacturer's warranty.

Which one is the better deal? Any opinions about buying 1-12 months used
vs 1,2, or 3 year old cars?

Brian
by bb
Fri Aug 03, 2012 9:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Save $2K On 2012 Certified Used Car, worth it?
Replies: 23
Views: 1624

Re: 45 and wondering if I should stop investing altogether?

I am sure lots of others will chime in on determining your risk tolerance, ability vs need to take risk, etc. Risk is fine when it is a theoretical concept. In reality it can make you ill when you see your equity balance drop by 50%. Do you worry to death every time you cross the road that you might...
by bb
Sun Jun 17, 2012 12:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 45 and wondering if I should stop investing altogether?
Replies: 67
Views: 7739

Re: Rebalancing into Poverty...Part 2

Everyone always deals with % and ignores investor sentiment, emotion, and human psychology. Brian That is why "A" is superior. It DOES NOT deal with investor sentiment, emotion and human psychology. Which are usually wrong, and cause you to do things that are stupid. It makes you stick to...
by bb
Thu May 31, 2012 8:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing into Poverty...Part 2
Replies: 36
Views: 2378

Re: Rebalancing into Poverty...Part 2

Scenario A: -------------- 50/50 Stocks/Bonds. Stocks decline 50%. Don't rebalance Scenario B: ----------------- 25/75 Stocks/Bonds. Stocks decline 50%. Rebalance Don't see why B is automatically superior. (A) was comfortable with a 50% loss so chose allocation accordingly. After experiencing the lo...
by bb
Wed May 30, 2012 10:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing into Poverty...Part 2
Replies: 36
Views: 2378

Re: Rebalancing into Poverty

I do not agree the definition of risk tolerance mandates rebalancing
from fixed income to equities after a market decline. That is one
definition.
by bb
Tue May 29, 2012 9:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing into Poverty
Replies: 211
Views: 11452

Re: QUESTIONS FOR Q&A WITH JACK BOGLE AT BOGLEHEADS 11

Don't know a good way to ask this question. Jack Bogle and others have frequented lamented the number of the best and brightest gravitating to the finance industry for employment. Is Jack arguing that people should not be attracted to the highest paying jobs OR these jobs should not be paying such h...
by bb
Sat May 19, 2012 2:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QUESTIONS FOR Q&A WITH JACK BOGLE AT BOGLEHEADS 11
Replies: 42
Views: 7563
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