Search found 6123 matches

by baw703916
Tue Jul 28, 2015 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"
Replies: 11
Views: 1260

Re: "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"

That may be true in many circumstances, but I think you can beat the market when most people are simply too terrified to do anything at all, other than bail out. Buying stocks in early 2009 was 50% off from their value in mid 2007. Algorithmically, it's obvious that the return from January 2009 to D...
by baw703916
Mon Jul 20, 2015 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg: S&P sets new record in 53% of years
Replies: 1
Views: 545

Bloomberg: S&P sets new record in 53% of years

So, are you nervous about investing because the S&P has reached a new all-time high this year? Well, it turns out it has done that a little more than half the years of its existence. The 2001-2012 dry spell was actually was actually the atypical situation. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...
by baw703916
Fri Jul 17, 2015 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Does Past Performance Matter?"
Replies: 9
Views: 985

Re: "Does Past Performance Matter?"

This is kind of a strawman topic given that it only compares active equity funds, which I don't own and have no interest in owning. A better topic on which to write a report might be: "Does past performance matter when comparing passive equity funds (or quasi-passive bond bunds) to one another?...
by baw703916
Fri Jul 17, 2015 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig, Behavioral Finance: What Good Is It, Anyway?
Replies: 21
Views: 2976

Re: Jason Zweig, Behavioral Finance: What Good Is It, Anyway?

If the irrational part of your brain tells you to sell when the market drops and buy when it has gone way up, you should smack it upside the head, and tell it to go back to watching cat videos. :twisted:
by baw703916
Sat Jul 11, 2015 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you do the Larry Portfolio?
Replies: 48
Views: 3684

Re: "Three Fund Portfolio" outperforming complicated portfolios

With a 90% allocation to stocks, my question would be how well it's doing after the next market correction Not so hot, but a 2nd grader has quite a few decades left to recover from those. (His own personal allocation is 45% stocks, for what it's worth.) It must be for a second grader with a low ris...
by baw703916
Tue Jul 07, 2015 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - "The Hugely Profitable, Wholly Legal Way to Game the Stock Market" (Front running index fund purchases)
Replies: 43
Views: 4451

Re: Bloomberg - "The Hugely Profitable, Wholly Legal Way to Game the Stock Market" (Front running index fund purchases)

Unfortunately our company retirement plans only use Russell indexes or S&P 500 indexes. Fortunately, the ER's are around 0.1%. I don't think the front running is costing me anywhere near what I'm saving on expenses. Is R1000 available? There's actually less money indexed to that than the R2000 ...
by baw703916
Tue Jul 07, 2015 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does An All ETF Portfolio Make Sense?
Replies: 40
Views: 3262

Re: Does An All ETF Portfolio Make Sense?

I view them as basically the same (I buy and hold) but I have always had a question and hopefully it can be answered here: When looking at Vanguard MF/ETFs I noticed that the ETFs always significantly lower expense ratios. Why is that? Am I missing something? Vanguard's ETFs generally have the same...
by baw703916
Tue Jul 07, 2015 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does An All ETF Portfolio Make Sense?
Replies: 40
Views: 3262

Re: Does An All ETF Portfolio Make Sense?

nisiprius wrote:the deafening volume of hype surrounding ETFs...


You appear to have forgotten the "tune out the noise" part of the Boglehead dogma! ;)
by baw703916
Wed Jul 01, 2015 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fund Name is Not Enough
Replies: 24
Views: 2432

Re: The Fund Name is Not Enough

Well, after seeing the performance of ORVAX (Oppenheimer Rochester Virginia) in 2008, I would hope one wouldn't need to know that it held Puerto Rico bond to steer clear. Here's is a comparison to PRVAX (T. Rowe Price Virginia), which is a quite good Virginia fund I owned until very recently. http:/...
by baw703916
Tue Jun 30, 2015 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 112
Views: 11571

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

abuss368 wrote:
I should have worded differently: I was referring to discussion and advice Vanguard publishes.


OK, I wondered about if that was what you meant.

My solution is to just ignore advice, even from Vanguard.:)
by baw703916
Tue Jun 30, 2015 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 112
Views: 11571

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

Vanguard has removed the Intermediate TIPS fund and does not really address this asset class any longer. Did VIPSX go away? I see it listed in Vanguard's fund lineup and don't see any announcement of it being liquidated. I own LTPZ. I'm not sure why I would give up on TIPS. They're doing their job ...
by baw703916
Mon Jun 29, 2015 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your state muni bond fund hold PR debt? My MN fund does
Replies: 5
Views: 744

Re: Does your state muni bond fund hold PR debt? My MN fund does

Here's the portion of interest from Puerto Rico for Vanguard's Tax exempt bond funds and tax-managed balanced fund: 2014 TE money market 0.04% short term TE 0.15% limited term TE 0.13% intermediate term TE 0.66% long term TE 1.43% high yield TE 2.81% TE balanced 0.50% 2013 TE money market 0.02% shor...
by baw703916
Sun Jun 28, 2015 2:33 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Forum Software Upgrade at 4 PM Eastern TODAY [Complete]
Replies: 9
Views: 1341

Re: Forum Software Upgrade at 4 PM Eastern TODAY

Hope the upgrade goes smoothly, thanks for all you do!
by baw703916
Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]
Replies: 237
Views: 25895

Re: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]

livesoft wrote:Here is a fun read from today on hedge funds invested in Greek debt: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/29/busin ... reece.html


I plan to stick to my course of not investing in hedge funds. :)
by baw703916
Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Argument for Long Term Treasury Bonds
Replies: 61
Views: 4930

Re: An Argument for Long Term Treasury Bonds

watchnerd wrote:Is there a good fund/ETF for 10-year Treasuries?


TENZ (PIMCO) is one possibility. There may be an iShares offering also.
by baw703916
Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]
Replies: 237
Views: 25895

Re: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]

In reference to Taylor Larimore's previous post: Bogleheads: I wonder how many of us realize that the Gross Domestic Product of Greece is less than the State of Washington and its population is less than the State of Florida?... This forum reaches a world-wide audience. For balance, the Economy of ...
by baw703916
Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why long term treasury bonds?
Replies: 20
Views: 3352

Re: Why long term treasury bonds?

That's correct, there is only the ETF and institutional share classes.
by baw703916
Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]
Replies: 237
Views: 25895

Re: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]

One thing that a lot of people seem to have missed is that apart from Greece, the peripheral countries in Europe have gotten their finances in order pretty significantly over the past few years. Here's 10 year bond yields as of 6/26/2015 for sovereign debt of some countries. A higher yield indicates...
by baw703916
Sat Jun 27, 2015 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to Begin [Tax Efficient Mutual Funds for Some Inheritance]
Replies: 15
Views: 1423

Re: Tax Efficient Mutual Funds for Some Inheritance

Total bond isn't very tax efficient, so you would want to put this in the IRA. To the extent you will buy bonds in taxable, either a purely Treasury fund (if your state has income tax, the interest on Treasuries is exempt from state tax) or Intermediate term Tax-exempt Bond is preferable. These two ...
by baw703916
Mon Jun 22, 2015 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When saving money becomes an irrational obsession
Replies: 146
Views: 24474

Re: When saving money becomes an irrational obsession

Here's a challenge for everyone: what advice would you give to a young person if you knew their tendency was to oversave, rather than spend? The first question is why a person oversaves: 1) If it's to provide more money for heirs and charity, then I wouldn't consider that irrational. 2) At least on...
by baw703916
Mon Jun 22, 2015 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When saving money becomes an irrational obsession
Replies: 146
Views: 24474

Re: When saving money becomes an irrational obsession

EmergDoc wrote:I wrote a post on that a few years ago:

http://whitecoatinvestor.com/enough-is-enough/


Emerdoc,

That was insightful and apropos. Thanks for reposting those excerpts! (The rest of the column is well worth reading, I encourage others to take a look).
by baw703916
Mon Jun 22, 2015 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When saving money becomes an irrational obsession
Replies: 146
Views: 24474

Re: When saving money becomes an irrational obsession

Here's a challenge for everyone: what advice would you give to a young person if you knew their tendency was to oversave, rather than spend? Marry someone who can teach them how to spend :) Seriously - this is what happened to me. After I got married I used to joke that I put all the money into our...
by baw703916
Mon Jun 22, 2015 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When saving money becomes an irrational obsession
Replies: 146
Views: 24474

Re: When saving money becomes an irrational obsession

So here's something interesting. When I went to the article, there were links to three other articles on the G&M website, all of which had a common theme: stop spending so much and save more! Serious question: if your most likely failure mode (in personal finance or some other area) is in the op...
by baw703916
Fri Jun 19, 2015 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why Bay Area real estate is so expensive
Replies: 12
Views: 2089

Re: Why Bay Area real estate is so expensive

All of the new houses and other new bldgs. built in the last 10 or 15 years have to be built at much higher cost than other areas of the U.S. due to meeting earthquake standards. Add to that a faster appreciation rate due to demand, well, it's no wonder, is it If that were really the driving factor...
by baw703916
Wed Jun 17, 2015 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fizzy swans: decompression sickness as an analogy for investing risk?
Replies: 15
Views: 1958

Re: Fizzy swans: decompression sickness as an analogy for investing risk?

Maybe I'll just replace the nitrogen in my portfolio with helium. That will make the risk go away! :idea:
by baw703916
Tue Jun 16, 2015 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Call from debt collector, should I follow up
Replies: 19
Views: 2645

Re: Call from debt collector, should I follow up

I googled the number, the results were...interesting. If it were me I wouldn't call them back. I think that any legitimate debt collection has to involve written notification. Has any been received?
by baw703916
Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today wasn't a RBD (Really Bad Day)!
Replies: 28
Views: 5113

Today wasn't a RBD (Really Bad Day)!

So over the weekend there were a couple of threads (which I think got locked) about how markets might be in for a wild ride due to the possibility of Greece leaving the Euro. That's not what I want to talk about here, so hopefully the mods won't see the need to lock this thread. Rather, I want to di...
by baw703916
Sun Jun 14, 2015 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care insurance - Less than meets the eye
Replies: 56
Views: 6397

Re: Long term care insurance - Less than meets the eye

Actually, you don't win if you need LTC at a fairly young age--unless you happen to have a policy with unlimited benefits. You may receive more in benefits than you paid in, but this is the wrong way to look at insurance. You should look at it in terms of mitigating the risks to a point that they'r...
by baw703916
Sun Jun 14, 2015 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Saudi Arabia be added into Total International Stock?
Replies: 19
Views: 3131

Re: Will Saudi Arabia be added into Total International Stock?

Apparently MSCI is considering adding SA to Emerging markets, but not moving yet: MSCI said that it will seek feedback from international institutional investors on the accessibility of the Saudi Arabia equity market following its opening on June 1, 2015 before considering adding the MSCI Saudi Arab...
by baw703916
Sun Jun 14, 2015 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care insurance - Less than meets the eye
Replies: 56
Views: 6397

Re: Long term care insurance - Less than meets the eye

There are plenty of problems with LTC insurance, but this isn't one of them: Require long-term care when you are relatively young, and you win, financially. Require it much later, or not at all, and the insurance company wins. LTCI can be a screaming good deal, if you’re afflicted early. But, at th...
by baw703916
Sat Jun 13, 2015 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't bogleheads predicting the long term?
Replies: 84
Views: 8845

Re: Aren't bogleheads predicting the long term?

If the stock market in one's home country goes to zero, or there is a decades-long period of economic decline (in an absolute sense, meaning negative real GDP "growth" for decades), then no investment strategy is going to work. So while it's correct that there's a tacit assumption that's n...
by baw703916
Sat Jun 13, 2015 9:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care insurance - Less than meets the eye
Replies: 56
Views: 6397

Re: Long term care insurance - Less than meets the eye

Are you sure about this? Obviously an individual policy is likely not possible, but there are definitely employer group plan LTC policies that guarantee issue without proof of insurability IF you sign up at the time you are hired. For example, NY State public employees have 60 days from date of hir...
by baw703916
Sat Jun 13, 2015 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care insurance - Less than meets the eye
Replies: 56
Views: 6397

Re: Long term care insurance - Less than meets the eye

If I move to a nursing home for the rest of my life, then I will not be spending $100K a year living in my home, driving my car, going on vacations, etc. Do you think I could just shift from paying regular expenses to paying nursing home expenses and stay solvent? $100K a year is a lot more than I'...
by baw703916
Sat Jun 13, 2015 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mutual fund vs ETFs - tax efficiency
Replies: 6
Views: 791

Re: Mutual fund vs ETFs - tax efficiency

In 2014, the Fidelty fund FSGDX (total int'l) was more tax-efficient than VXUS (total int'l). But FSGDX had lower performance and has consistently lower performance for unknown reasons, so VXUS returned more after tax anyways. So beware of judging by tax efficiency alone, since after all the fund t...
by baw703916
Sat Jun 13, 2015 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mutual fund vs ETFs - tax efficiency
Replies: 6
Views: 791

Re: Mutual fund vs ETFs - tax efficiency

No. For Vanguard (and only Vanguard--patent) ETFs are a share class of the index funds. All share classes have the same tax efficiency, but the existence of ETF shares makes all share classes more tax efficient. Compare distributions between VEXMX and Fidelity's Extended Market index fund for a good...
by baw703916
Sat Jun 13, 2015 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term care insurance - Less than meets the eye
Replies: 56
Views: 6397

Re: Long term care insurance - Less than meets the eye

^IMO, The issue of self investment of LTCi dollars is a false avenue. Who will save and invest for 30 years for the use of possible LTC? SWR and VWR assume that you will draw down the Retirement funds to a near zero balance at a quick death at NNN years old. I never have seen a reserve in the WR fo...
by baw703916
Fri Jun 12, 2015 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here we go again or is it different this time
Replies: 18
Views: 2906

Re: Here we go again or is it different this time

Those predictions are demonstrably false. If you buy a bunch of 10 year individual TIPS in a Roth account and hold them until maturity, you are guaranteed a positive real return of a little over 0.50% per year. Not a bonanza, but a positive number, independent of what inflation does. 0% nominal retu...
by baw703916
Thu Jun 11, 2015 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap (Value) Tilt vs. Market Weight
Replies: 52
Views: 6331

Re: Small Cap (Value) Tilt vs. Market Weight

So, if a large corporation with 100 brands decided to split and create 100 small companies around each brand, do you think it would be a good idea to put 100x the money that was invested in the large corporation to buy equal amounts of the 100 small companies? Likewise, if a group of investors deci...
by baw703916
Thu Jun 11, 2015 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum vs Mean Reversion
Replies: 5
Views: 739

Re: Momentum vs Mean Reversion

I'm not sure how meaningful this analysis is. The reason being that in the one non-Monte Carlo example, four individual stocks are considered. For individual stocks, things like momentum, mean reversion, valuations, etc. are going to be completely overshadowed by factors specific to that company or ...
by baw703916
Wed Jun 10, 2015 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vang Total Bond Market, trailing its benchmark?
Replies: 7
Views: 1863

Re: Vang Total Bond Market, trailing its benchmark?

The TSP F Fund (which tracks the same index) had a YTD return through May of 1.13%, and a May return of -0.26%. YTD through June 9, it's -0.307% https://www.tsp.gov/investmentfunds/monthly/monthlyReturns.shtml Could some of this be due to rounding share prices to the nearest penny? The TSP funds hav...
by baw703916
Tue Jun 09, 2015 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Latest TSP (Thrift) Contribution Date?
Replies: 29
Views: 2760

Re: Latest TSP (Thrift) Contribution Date?

It's by calendar year, so yes any 2015 contributions would have to be made by the end of December.

Have you contributed to a 401k in the first half of this year though? If so then the total TSP + 401k contributions are limited to $18K.
by baw703916
Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Letter from Vanguard increasing international
Replies: 24
Views: 2881

Re: Letter from Vanguard increasing international

The best advice is to pick a % of equities to put in international (something between 20% and market weight--60%) and just stick to that number. The number you pick is probably less important than the sticking to it. It's unfortunate that Vanguard doesn't seem to be able to do this.
by baw703916
Mon Jun 08, 2015 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help me understand tax-exempt bond funds
Replies: 12
Views: 1627

Re: Please help me understand tax-exempt bond funds

Federal issues are exempt from state tax (but are subject to federal tax). Municipal bonds are exempt from federal tax. Municipal bonds in your state are exempt from state tax too. There are a few exceptions, but that's about how it is. a. 3 and 4 b. 1, 2, 4, and 5. c. Potentially all of them if yo...
by baw703916
Mon Jun 08, 2015 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time for Inverse ETF's?
Replies: 7
Views: 834

Re: Time for Inverse ETF's?

Still, the volatility drag is working against you if you hold an inverse or leveraged fund for an appreciable length of time. If you really want to make a bet that some investment is going to go down in price over the next year or so, independent of what it does between now and then, buying a put op...
by baw703916
Mon Jun 08, 2015 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Letter from Vanguard increasing international
Replies: 24
Views: 2881

Re: Questions for georgiaproud

I just lost more on international stock at less than half of the investment value of US stock. On $99,888 US stock I lost $1084 and on $41,985 international I lost $1288. georgiaproud: It is difficult to lose money in a bull market. I'm curious. What are your "US stock" and "Internat...
by baw703916
Sun Jun 07, 2015 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Letter from Vanguard increasing international
Replies: 24
Views: 2881

Re: Letter from Vanguard increasing international

This is what I just read in regard to Vanguard's move. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-chinas-stock-market-explode-on-wednesday-2015-06-07?mod=MW_story_top_stories I don't see how this (MSCI's decision whether to include China in Developed) relates to Vanguard. 1) Vanguard no longer used MSCI...
by baw703916
Sun Jun 07, 2015 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do You Know How Much You're Paying?"
Replies: 44
Views: 7049

Re: "Do You Know How Much You're Paying?"

abuss368 wrote: Perhaps the financial services industry will become more transparent over time.


Lol! :)
by baw703916
Mon Jun 01, 2015 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Farrell`s 8 lazy portfolios
Replies: 16
Views: 3488

Re: Paul Farrell`s 8 lazy portfolios

Without looking at risk levels of the portfolios (for which I propose the Oct. 2007-March 2009 drop in value) comparing the period returns is pretty close to meaningless. This thread is starting to frustrate me. So you are really saying you like my re-posting of Robert T.'s post above aren't you? :...
by baw703916
Sun May 31, 2015 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retirement and Proximity to "Teaching Hospitals"
Replies: 44
Views: 4377

Re: Retirement and Proximity to "Teaching Hospitals"

obgraham, I agree that throwing lots of technology at a patient when it's unlikely to significantly extend their life or improve its quality may not be worth it. But I would say that in the case of a very rare condition which persists over many years and has a large impact on quality of life the cal...

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