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Re: Chaos, complexity and entropy [for non-physicists]

Epsilon Delta: Ok, you piqued my curiosity.....how did you calculate the 0.0000013 sigma event for the million atom imbalance?.....and let's postulate that before the stopcock is opened.....there are exactly the same number of Argon atoms in bulb A as bulb B. You can approximate the situation by sa...
by baw703916
Wed Jan 28, 2015 9:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chaos, complexity and entropy [for non-physicists]
Replies: 42
Views: 2210

Re: Chaos, complexity and entropy simplified

The trouble is physicists by choice only allow the possibility of a forgetting observer to be outside a closed system. They don't allow a learning observer to be, because learning requires actually constructing some states. Forgetting, well, who knows what you did know, before you forgot. Maybe you...
by baw703916
Wed Jan 28, 2015 7:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chaos, complexity and entropy [for non-physicists]
Replies: 42
Views: 2210

Re: WHAT EXPERTS SAY ABOUT

Happy Birthday, Taylor!
by baw703916
Sun Jan 25, 2015 5:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Experts Say [about various investing topics]
Replies: 49
Views: 2881

Re: Where do you think the stock market heading this year?

I'm on record as saying that it is headed to 1731.54. You'll know in a little over 11 months whether I'm right. I wouldn't bet on it if I were you though.
by baw703916
Sun Jan 25, 2015 1:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where do you think the stock market heading this year?
Replies: 20
Views: 1553

Re: Roth IRA contribution from Brokerage Account

Thanks everyone for your help. As a retired police officer I still do some part -time security work and have earned income. So if I understand I can use the stock sale money and move it into the Roth IRA since I will make earned income from part time work. Yes, up to the point where you have enough...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 24, 2015 1:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA contribution from Brokerage Account
Replies: 7
Views: 255

Re: Why are people buying 10 year Bunds?

Treasuries carry currency risk for people in Eurozone countries.
by baw703916
Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are people buying 10 year Bunds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1384

Re: Today was a Really Bad Day in Shanghai

Your 22% of VWO (that was China) didn't go up 60% in 2014 because B shares only went up 12%. So likewise, it did not suffer a similar 9% 1-day drop as FXI looks to have dropped about 1% today. There is a firewall between the Shanghai/Shenzen A-shares markets for Chinese nationals and the B shares y...
by baw703916
Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was a Really Bad Day in Shanghai
Replies: 27
Views: 4032

Re: Today was a Really Bad Day in Shanghai

Yep, risk and expected return do seem to be related. Just to be argumentative, how is it that I should expect the risk of corruption or inadequate regulation to pay off? Because, if he's behaving rationally, Mr. Market shouldn't be willing to pay as much money for a company domiciled in a poorly re...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was a Really Bad Day in Shanghai
Replies: 27
Views: 4032

Re: Today was a Really Bad Day in Shanghai

There are no investors per se in China's stock market, everyone is speculator. These days, ordinary Chinese people with no stock market concepts are jumping in, very similar to what happened a few years ago before the market lost two-third of its values. The Bloomberg article I linked in the OP poi...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 19, 2015 4:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was a Really Bad Day in Shanghai
Replies: 27
Views: 4032

Re: Today was a Really Bad Day in Shanghai

Emerging markets risk, which is the chance that the stocks of companies located in emerging markets will be substantially more volatile, and substantially less liquid, than the stocks of companies located in more developed foreign markets because, among other factors, emerging markets can have grea...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was a Really Bad Day in Shanghai
Replies: 27
Views: 4032

Today was a Really Bad Day in Shanghai

It's a holiday in the U.S., but markets in the rest of the world are open, and thing are kind of interesting in China: the Shanghai Composite Index is down 7.7% today. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SHCOMP:IND Before any of you do a livesoft and put in a buy order for a China ETF, consider that the ...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was a Really Bad Day in Shanghai
Replies: 27
Views: 4032

Re: The DOW: An Index I Love to Hate

The S&P isn't perfect, but is a quite adequate measure of U.S. markets.

On (non-financial) news outlets, they invariably show the Dow, and after that, the NASDAQ. Seriously, the one index that actually tells you anything is the third string!!??
by baw703916
Sun Jan 18, 2015 7:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The DOW: An Index I Love to Hate
Replies: 27
Views: 1934

Re: Malkiel's recommendations, 1990 to 2015

Some explanations from an interview from a month ago, here: http://www.etf.com/sections/features/24055-legends-of-indexing-burton-malkiel.html I have become increasingly worried about bond investing in the developed markets. We are living through an era that has been called a financial repression, ...
by baw703916
Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel's recommendations, 1990 to 2015
Replies: 40
Views: 3821

Re: Why no cult/theory/strategy of US regional stock investi

Most of my US investments are in companies domiciled in Delaware.

Seriously, this thread is jumping the shark.
by baw703916
Sat Jan 17, 2015 7:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no cult/theory/strategy of US regional stock investing?
Replies: 21
Views: 1612

Re: Malkiel's recommendations, 1990 to 2015

The conclusion is obvious: 65 is the new 35! :beer
by baw703916
Sat Jan 17, 2015 3:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel's recommendations, 1990 to 2015
Replies: 40
Views: 3821

Re: The TSP's Low Expenses vs. Vanguard

The only aspect of my hypothetical that was realistic for me was the fact that my current TSP balance is about $1.4 million. To get there, I've been saving thousands of dollars on fees since I started my TSP account in 1987. So, even with my past lower balances, those fee savings have been adding u...
by baw703916
Thu Jan 15, 2015 8:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The TSP's Low Expenses vs. Vanguard
Replies: 40
Views: 3775

Re: "Fund Costs: The Good and Bad News"

Thanks, Taylor. It's unfortunate that this "bad news" continues to persist for many people.
by baw703916
Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Fund Costs: The Good and Bad News"
Replies: 5
Views: 688

Re: Is the Vanguard TIPs fund Active or Passive?

I hold that the biggest consequence of the fund being active is that the Admiral minimum is $50K, rather than $10K.

The rationale for the fund being active would be an excellent question for someone to ask Vanguard at a future Bogleheads annual meeting.
by baw703916
Mon Jan 12, 2015 4:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Vanguard TIPs fund Active or Passive?
Replies: 15
Views: 1412

Re: Fidelity Intermediate Tax Exempt

I see that MUB is a national AMT free municipal bond fund. Can anyone explain what the "AMT free" means? It means the fund does not buy bonds whose interest is subject to the Alternative Minimum Tax. All of Vanguard's tax exempt bond funds except the high Yield tax exempt and the tax exem...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 12, 2015 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Intermediate Tax Exempt
Replies: 10
Views: 643

Re: "Fund Costs: The Good and Bad News"

That's a very informative article. Thanks for linking to it, Taylor!

In case anyone is wondering what the bad news is, here's a hint:

However, the overall success is marred by the mess within 401(k)s.
by baw703916
Mon Jan 12, 2015 2:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Fund Costs: The Good and Bad News"
Replies: 5
Views: 688

Re: Why is it wrong to think individual bonds are safer vs f

Still, I would say that the risk for the bondholder who holds to maturity is best categorized as "opportunity cost risk". If interest rates go up, the person who already owns bonds can't take advantage because their money is already tied up in them. Yes, but when this "opportunity co...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 10, 2015 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is it wrong to think individual bonds are safer vs funds
Replies: 30
Views: 1985

Re: 2000-2014

You brought up a real head scratcher. Why did the mid-cap and small-cap indexes beat the extended market index? It just makes no sense. My suspicion is that it has to do with tinkering Vanguard did with its indexes, the small cap index Vanguard tracked in 2000 was a different small cap index that V...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 10, 2015 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-2014 [15 year returns]
Replies: 26
Views: 4119

Re: Why is it wrong to think individual bonds are safer vs f

Still, I would say that the risk for the bondholder who holds to maturity is best categorized as "opportunity cost risk". If interest rates go up, the person who already owns bonds can't take advantage because their money is already tied up in them. It's worth remembering that an individua...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 10, 2015 3:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is it wrong to think individual bonds are safer vs funds
Replies: 30
Views: 1985

Re: Help me to understand time shares

There was a South Park episode on time shares several years ago, which I recommend that anyone considering buying a time share view beforehand. :twisted:
by baw703916
Sat Jan 10, 2015 1:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help me to understand time shares
Replies: 58
Views: 5381

Re: New Vanguard AMT-free National Municipal Bond Fund

Vanguard wanted a tax-exempt bond ETF and now they have it. That's the best I can say about this fund. I don't know--buying at a substantial discount to NAV when the market is freaking out strikes me as a pretty good way to harvest the liquidity premium. Assuming of course that I don't need liquidi...
by baw703916
Thu Jan 08, 2015 8:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard AMT-free National Municipal Bond Fund
Replies: 58
Views: 5028

Re: The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns 2014

You could say the same thing about bonds: at or near the bottom 10 years, at or near the top five years. :)
by baw703916
Thu Jan 08, 2015 8:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns 2014
Replies: 26
Views: 3577

Re: Poll: Favorite Coping Strategies for Volatility

I find that CNBC makes for an entertaining--if campy--reality show during periods of volatility. The time they spent a whole weekend filming across the street from Lehman Brothers while people carted their boxes of stuff out of the office was a lot better than Jersey Shore.
by baw703916
Tue Jan 06, 2015 9:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Favorite Coping Strategies for Volatility
Replies: 41
Views: 2650

Re: Pension - Roth TSP vs Traditional TSP

Laura wrote:I also use traditional because it keeps me roth eligible for a while longer. The lower tax bracket is an added advantage.

Laura


This is an important point which is often missed when just considering tax brackets.
by baw703916
Tue Jan 06, 2015 8:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension - Roth TSP vs Traditional TSP
Replies: 10
Views: 1029

Re: New Vanguard AMT-free National Municipal Bond Fund

I think I remember in the 2009 rollout of the small FTSE fund (VSS/VSFVX) that Vanguard let people "pre-invest" a month or so before the fund opened, and I seem to remember that this avoided a purchase fee. I think this allowed Vanguard to collect enough fund assets to achieve a reasonable...
by baw703916
Tue Jan 06, 2015 8:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard AMT-free National Municipal Bond Fund
Replies: 58
Views: 5028

Re: New Vanguard AMT-free National Municipal Bond Fund

Educate me here. Why is this a big deal? Who is this targeted at? Who benefits the most? Why should I or should I not buy this fund? It's significant because none of Vanguard's current tax-exempt bond funds are actually index funds, which means there can be no ETF shares, and there is a much higher...
by baw703916
Tue Jan 06, 2015 8:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard AMT-free National Municipal Bond Fund
Replies: 58
Views: 5028

Re: larry portfolio vs 3 fund portfolio last 2 years

The two portfolios didn't have the same return in 2008 either.
by baw703916
Tue Jan 06, 2015 4:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: larry portfolio vs 3 fund portfolio last 2 years
Replies: 16
Views: 2554

Re: Vanguard announces new Tax-Exempt Index Bond Fund

staythecourse wrote:I'll put this in the nice, but who cares department as it has been nicely mentioned their active TE funds are not that active anyways.


Although since the other TE funds aren't index funds, the Admiral threshold for those is $50,000, which may be out of reach of some potential investors.
by baw703916
Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard AMT-free National Municipal Bond Fund
Replies: 58
Views: 5028

Re: Vanguard announces new Tax-Exempt Index Bond Fund

I think this is a case where there's a good reason to favor the ETF shares (at least until the purchase fee goes away).

-Same 0.12% ER as Admiral shares--with no minimum.
-No purchase fee as with Investor/Admiral shares.
-No commissions if purchased through one's Vanguard account.
by baw703916
Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard AMT-free National Municipal Bond Fund
Replies: 58
Views: 5028

Re: Vanguard announces new Tax-Exempt Index Fund

Good job Vanguard! :D Not that the current TE funds are very "active", but the fact that it's officially an index fund will mean a lower threshold for Admiral Shares when they are established, as well as ETF shares which based on other Vanguard funds should have a lower E/R than the Invest...
by baw703916
Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard AMT-free National Municipal Bond Fund
Replies: 58
Views: 5028

Re: Pension - Roth TSP vs Traditional TSP

Which retirement plan are you on, CSRS or FERS?
by baw703916
Tue Jan 06, 2015 12:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension - Roth TSP vs Traditional TSP
Replies: 10
Views: 1029

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

VictoriaF wrote:2048

Victoria


Victoria,

Retirement sure has made you optimistic! :)
by baw703916
Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 556
Views: 19738

Re: Wash Sales Don't Apply to Tax-deferred accounts, right?

Thanks for the feedback. This is helpful. Based on your comments, am I correct in saying that wash sale considerations only apply if the first sale was a "loss situation"? In my case, all my sales resulted in capital gains, I believe. You're correct, Although it turns out that in a wash s...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 05, 2015 1:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wash Sales Don't Apply to Tax-deferred accounts, right?
Replies: 10
Views: 782

Re: Wash Sales Don't Apply to Tax-deferred accounts, right?

OK, I may have gotten things backwards. It's perfectly fine to sell something in a retirement account and immediately purchase the same thing in a taxable account, as there can be no tax loss in the first place and therefore no wash sale. The converse is what I was referring to, perhaps mistakenly. ...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 05, 2015 11:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wash Sales Don't Apply to Tax-deferred accounts, right?
Replies: 10
Views: 782

Re: Wash Sales Don't Apply to Tax-deferred accounts, right?

Unfortunately it does apply, at least in the IRS's interpretation of the rules. That interpretation hasn't been tested in court yet, and it's not entirely clear if it will hold up, as the case law they cite deals with two taxable accounts, not a taxable and a tax-advantaged account. But I'm guessing...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 05, 2015 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wash Sales Don't Apply to Tax-deferred accounts, right?
Replies: 10
Views: 782

Re: Why not just follow John Bogle

stemikger wrote: it's thinking too much that gets me in trouble.


Don't think too much. :)
by baw703916
Sun Jan 04, 2015 4:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not just follow John Bogle
Replies: 78
Views: 5912

Re: Ben Stein's new book: How to Ruin Your Financial Life

Again, the thing that puzzles me is why he says DIY is a sure way to ruin your financial life--unless he's just trying to sell something?

Any ideas? Unfortunately that chapter isn't in the preview, so I can't read what it says.
by baw703916
Sun Jan 04, 2015 3:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Stein's new book: How to Ruin Your Financial Life
Replies: 18
Views: 4468

Re: US Military - Roth Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) - Update No

I had the same error as others yesterday, but was able to get it to work today. Does anybody know if the TSP will stop taking contributions once i reach my $18k limit? I am unable to get a percentage that equals exactly $1500, plus I will have multiple pay raises this year so my monthly contributio...
by baw703916
Sun Jan 04, 2015 2:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: US Military - Roth Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) - Update Now
Replies: 20
Views: 2549

Re: Ben Stein's new book: How to Ruin Your Financial Life

In looking over the Table of Contents, one chapter (each one gives a different way to ruin your life) is titled "Do it all yourself" Say what? Is this a sales brochure for financial services disguised as a book? I'm sure at least a self-managed broad market portfolio is well within the cap...
by baw703916
Sun Jan 04, 2015 1:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Stein's new book: How to Ruin Your Financial Life
Replies: 18
Views: 4468

Re: Poll: Esoteric fund choice / comparison S&P500 vs Large-

Curiously enough, VFIAX has 172% of the expense ratio of the S&P 500 index fund that I use. :beer
by baw703916
Sat Jan 03, 2015 7:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Poll: Esoteric fund choice / comparison S&P500 vs Large-cap
Replies: 17
Views: 1233

Re: 2015 Predictions: Most Popular Topics

What's the best watch for around $6000 (inflation, you know)
by baw703916
Sat Jan 03, 2015 6:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 Predictions: Most Popular Topics
Replies: 38
Views: 2409

Re: Poll: Esoteric fund choice / comparison S&P500 vs Large-

Have you made a decision yet, livesoft? If not consider this a bump to attract more votes.
by baw703916
Sat Jan 03, 2015 6:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Poll: Esoteric fund choice / comparison S&P500 vs Large-cap
Replies: 17
Views: 1233

Re: Why not just follow John Bogle

I think I agree with FelixTheCat above (if I'm interpreting the meaning correctly). I don't feel the need to follow anybody, and I would never change my course because someone says to do X. I might decide to do X after hearing their reasoning, but that would be because I am convinced by the rational...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 03, 2015 6:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not just follow John Bogle
Replies: 78
Views: 5912

Re: My Return for 2014 for Wealthfront is less than 2%

There's nothing wrong with the portfolio you have. The commodities and dividend stocks don't thrill me, but they aren't much of the portfolio. Anyway, a three fund portfolio in taxable would include municipal bonds, U.S. stocks, and international stocks, which make up the vast majority of the portfo...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 03, 2015 5:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My Return for 2014 for Wealthfront is less than 2%
Replies: 27
Views: 2967

Re: Stock Market Behavior Predicted by Rat Neurons

gardemanger wrote:But do the rats sleep well at night???


I think they're nocturnal, so probably not. :)
by baw703916
Sat Jan 03, 2015 1:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market Behavior Predicted by Rat Neurons
Replies: 13
Views: 803

Re: Stock Market Behavior Predicted by Rat Neurons

Here's what can happen if you pick the wrong rat neurons:

http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2010-07-03/

:twisted:
by baw703916
Sat Jan 03, 2015 1:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market Behavior Predicted by Rat Neurons
Replies: 13
Views: 803
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