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Re: Vanguard TISM estimates low QDI?

Those are kind of strange. Since total international is a combination of large FTSE and small FTSE, one would expect it to have a QDI somewhere in between the two, but it's actually lower than either. Also TSM is a combination of the S&P 500 and the completion index (Vanguard Extended Market Ind...
by baw703916
Wed Nov 26, 2014 1:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard TISM estimates low QDI?
Replies: 4
Views: 779

Re: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund coming in early 2015

The yield on 12 month Treasuries is currently 0.12% . 0.12% is the E/R of the Admiral shares of many of Vanguard's bond funds. It doesn't sound like a bad idea in general, but right now to the extent that the fund's portfolio includes Treasuries (which I assume it's going to since the whole point is...
by baw703916
Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund coming in early 2015.
Replies: 39
Views: 4253

Re: Equal Weight portfolio

10 year annualized returns (M*)

RSP (S&P 500 equal weight ETF): 9.34%
SPY (S&P 500 ETF): 7.91%
by baw703916
Tue Nov 25, 2014 1:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equal Weight portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 1418

Re: Can't quite max out TSP contribution--what to do?

Thanks for putting things in perspective, rkhusky, Jim, and Carl.

Yes, I certainly was intending in good faith to make my full regular contribution in addition to the catch-up, so it shouldn't be a problem as far as the legalese.

Brad
by baw703916
Mon Nov 24, 2014 12:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can't quite max out TSP contribution--what to do?
Replies: 8
Views: 770

Re: order of investing?

Partly it depends on how good your 401(k) is. A lot of them trap people into high cost active funds.
by baw703916
Sun Nov 23, 2014 9:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: order of investing?
Replies: 19
Views: 1316

Re: Can't quite max out TSP contribution--what to do?

If the shortfall is not unbridgeable, you might consider borrowing the amount needed to close it. As with any use of "leverage," there is risk to that, but depending on all the circumstances, it might be beneficial in the long run. Run the numbers, assess the probabilities, and do what se...
by baw703916
Sun Nov 23, 2014 9:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can't quite max out TSP contribution--what to do?
Replies: 8
Views: 770

Can't quite max out TSP contribution--what to do?

Hi everyone, I normally max out my TSP contribution every year, and being of a "certain age" also make the catch-up contribution. This year I have had some changes in my work schedule, which have resulted in being on leave from the job which feeds the TSP contribution, so I've had to play ...
by baw703916
Sun Nov 23, 2014 8:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can't quite max out TSP contribution--what to do?
Replies: 8
Views: 770

Re: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?

grayfox, are you confounding 'FORWARD TIPs returns estimates' with 'PAST equity returns?' With rates currently low, expected returns on bonds are understandably low....but the same is true of equities, with valuations at all-time high...not commenting on the probability of bonds beating stocks, but...
by baw703916
Sun Nov 23, 2014 2:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?
Replies: 64
Views: 5204

Re: Jim Cramer dad & LTCI

Thanks, Levett. Wish I'd known about that when I bought my LTCi, but fortunately the company I used is one of the best in your list. 3 complaints in $50 million in premiums isn't bad. If you assume, just to pick a nice fat round number, $5,000 in premiums for the average policy, that's 3 complaints...
by baw703916
Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Jim Cramer Dad & LTCI
Replies: 30
Views: 3409

Re: Jim Cramer dad & LTCI

It's worth remembering that Jim Cramer is a graduate of Harvard Law School, and has a lot of money. So, he has access to as much legal firepower as anyone to try to get the insurance company to live up to their obligations. If it was hard for him, it's liable to be much harder for most people.
by baw703916
Sat Nov 22, 2014 3:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Jim Cramer Dad & LTCI
Replies: 30
Views: 3409

Re: "Are You an Irrational Investor? Here’s How to Tell"

Good article, but I kind of disagree with the statement that with stocks at an all-time high, it's not rational for more money to flow into them. Stocks may or may not be overvalued, but this is independent of whether they're at an all-time high. During the time period 1982-1999, stocks reached a ne...
by baw703916
Fri Nov 21, 2014 9:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are You an Irrational Investor? Here’s How to Tell"
Replies: 13
Views: 1820

Re: Quit Cobra to go on Obamacare?

If I can give some general advice based on my own personal experience, none of this applies if you know exactly what you are going to get when you select a plan at healthcare.gov. I would suggest sticking with your COBRA. The problem is that your COBRA is a known quantity -- all the folks at your o...
by baw703916
Wed Nov 19, 2014 10:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quit Cobra to go on Obamacare?
Replies: 23
Views: 2880

Re: VWAHX [Vanguard High-Yield Tax-Exempt Fund]

PABs are one reason this fund is "high yield". Since they aren't really tax free for everyone, they carry higher interest rates, all else being equal. Which may be good if you aren't paying AMT (higher yield for same credit quality), but not if you are paying AMT.
by baw703916
Tue Nov 18, 2014 1:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWAHX [Vanguard High-Yield Tax-Exempt Fund]
Replies: 6
Views: 907

Re: Insurance Company Protection

Isn't there some sort of consumer protection law regarding this? States can require admitted insurers to belong to "protection associations" (aka "guaranty associations/funds"). The insurers contribute to a fund to "protect" consumers in the event one of the fund membe...
by baw703916
Mon Nov 17, 2014 9:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Insurance Company Protection
Replies: 14
Views: 1045

Re: VWAHX

rkhusky wrote:The portfolio page for Vanguard High-Yield Tax-Exempt Fund Investor lists 16.9% for the percentage of the fund's income subject to the AMT.


Note that per SEC requirements, this number has to be less than 20% for a fund to bear the name "tax-exempt".
by baw703916
Mon Nov 17, 2014 8:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWAHX [Vanguard High-Yield Tax-Exempt Fund]
Replies: 6
Views: 907

Re: "The dangers of long-term care insurance"

Taylor, Just to be clear, the analyst's report that I linked above (and we should apply all the usual caveats about analysts) doesn't say that Genworth as a whole is financially shaky, but rather that their LTC insurance book is "worthless" meaning the total value of the company would be t...
by baw703916
Sun Nov 16, 2014 9:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "The dangers of long-term care insurance"
Replies: 132
Views: 12962

Re: CA int municipal bond fund vs. Vanguard int muni fund

As mentioned, only you can decide the tradeoff between the risks of the single-state bond fund versus the tax advantages it offers to you personally. However, several expert recommendations I've seen allocate the bond portfolio like this: • 50% Taxable Bonds • 25% National Munis • 25% CA Munis The ...
by baw703916
Sun Nov 16, 2014 3:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CA int municipal bond fund vs. Vanguard int muni fund
Replies: 32
Views: 2239

Re: Value Investing or Dividend Investing - Which Is It?

But value and dividends aren't completely synonymous. It's true that growth stocks tend not to pay much if any dividends (they're reinvesting their profits into the company). But neither do deep value stocks (which are often in a precarious financial situation). So targeting dividends tends to selec...
by baw703916
Sat Nov 15, 2014 3:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Investing or Dividend Investing - Which Is It?
Replies: 4
Views: 848

Re: Bogleheads get to hedge fund guy

thenextguy wrote:
skweegull wrote:Notice that post is from 2007.


Oh well, he was right then. Back then Bogle was too young and inexperienced. ;)


Bogle evidently can lie very convincingly about his "age in bonds"!
by baw703916
Wed Nov 12, 2014 4:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads get to hedge fund guy
Replies: 28
Views: 4463

Re: Bogleheads get to hedge fund guy

The trouble with Jack Bogle is that he is too young and inexperienced


:D
by baw703916
Tue Nov 11, 2014 11:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads get to hedge fund guy
Replies: 28
Views: 4463

Re: forumsee.com mirroring Boglehead content. Authorized?

We could have some fake ads here:

"Learn how to stay the course like a pro!"

"Avoid almost all investment fees with this neat trick!"

"Variable annuity salespeople hate her!"

"Do this and you won't need to care which way the market is heading!"

:)
by baw703916
Tue Nov 11, 2014 9:04 pm
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: forumsee.com mirroring Boglehead content. Authorized?
Replies: 3
Views: 961

Re: astonishing performance of US markets vs others

Momentum is a real thing. But it can't persist forever--otherwise the valuations of the U.S. market (in this particular instance) would become arbitrarily high relative to the rest of the world, with no underlying economic support. Momentum is a vector thing. And it can persist forever, until it en...
by baw703916
Tue Nov 11, 2014 8:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: astonishing performance of US markets vs others
Replies: 50
Views: 5066

Re: astonishing performance of US markets vs others

Momentum topics remind us that selling hurts winners---they could have continued to advance---so better to rebalance into losers with new money. Your money remembers where it came from? L. Maybe should have been more clear. The asset winning under momentum could have continued to advance. Now that ...
by baw703916
Tue Nov 11, 2014 6:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: astonishing performance of US markets vs others
Replies: 50
Views: 5066

Re: astonishing performance of US markets vs others

A few thoughts: -"Diversification is always working, whether you want it to or not." -International diversification worked wonders for Eurozone investors the last few years. Will it be a good thing or a bad thing for U.S. investors in the next five years? I don't know, but I'll spread my b...
by baw703916
Tue Nov 11, 2014 3:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: astonishing performance of US markets vs others
Replies: 50
Views: 5066

Re: "The dangers of long-term care insurance"

Piling on here:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-1 ... s-ceo.html

an analyst wrote:Our preference would be for Genworth to put LTC into runoff in a closed block.
by baw703916
Mon Nov 10, 2014 9:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "The dangers of long-term care insurance"
Replies: 132
Views: 12962

Re: ObamaCare vs. Private Insurance??

To me, if insurance is purchased on a government exchange (whether state or fed), I would call that public insurance because it is offered to the general public with, in most cases, a generous government subsidy. What if the subsidy is provided outside of an exchange? Would you consider government ...
by baw703916
Mon Nov 10, 2014 8:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ObamaCare vs. Private Insurance??
Replies: 105
Views: 10739

Re: Index fund real annual return, best source?

For the past ten years, I think Morningstar's "performance" tab is pretty reliable. I've gotten weird stuff out of Yahoo! Finance. Sometimes M*'s portfolio analysis (average P/E, cap size, etc.) doesn't agree with the Sponsor's (e.g. Vanguard's) info. But the performance does seem to be a...
by baw703916
Sun Nov 09, 2014 5:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index fund real annual return, best source?
Replies: 3
Views: 750

Re: Fund return, best source?

Probably the best source for a particular fund is the fund sponsor. Of course that doesn't facilitate comparisons very easily.
by baw703916
Sat Nov 08, 2014 10:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index fund real annual return, best source?
Replies: 3
Views: 750

Re: International Stock Index Potential

nelson1015 wrote:Considering this logic should I buy me some GDX too?


You should buy it when the P/E is below 20.
by baw703916
Fri Nov 07, 2014 4:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock Index Potential
Replies: 17
Views: 1643

Re: Federal Employees: BCBS Basic or GEHA HDHP Health Insura

As a note the math entirely falls apart if you hit catastrophic limits on the HDHP, no amount of tax benefits makes it a better choice than the BCBS or other similar plans. Let's hope that is rare! Could you please elaborate? I'm not quite sure if I understand all the terminology correctly. Thanks.
by baw703916
Thu Nov 06, 2014 3:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Federal Employees: BCBS Basic or GEHA HDHP Health Insurance?
Replies: 40
Views: 2294

Re: Making 8 "horrible" investments will beat the index, rig

-Precious Metal Equities -EAFE -Emerging Markets (it's probably a little early for this one--maybe a year or two from now) -Small Value (also probably a little early for this one) -long TIPS -International Real Estate -Frontier markets (if there were a decent vehicle, but there isn't) maybe Gulf Sta...
by baw703916
Mon Nov 03, 2014 9:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Making 8 "horrible" investments will beat the index, right?
Replies: 35
Views: 3813

Re: Fighting Through Risk Tolerance Questionnaires

nisiprius wrote: Let's say I think something has a normal distribution



Sorry, but you're delusional! ;)
by baw703916
Mon Nov 03, 2014 8:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fighting Through Risk Tolerance Questionnaires
Replies: 53
Views: 3024

Re: ETF taxation -- am I understanding this right?

Actually, if there is high turnover inside the ETF, it might distribute capital gains. What the treatment of the creation units does is to prevent realized capital gains when people sell their investments in the fund (which does happen in a pure open-end mutual fund structure). Vanguards dual share ...
by baw703916
Mon Nov 03, 2014 6:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ETF taxation -- am I understanding this right?
Replies: 2
Views: 308

Re: Explaining muni bond spreads

Thanks, Larry. This supports what I had noticed about muni vs. taxable yields over the last several years. They seemed anomalously high and credit risk didn't seem a plausible explanation. Two specific questions: 1) How did quantitative easing (which was intended to lower Treasury rates but had no d...
by baw703916
Mon Nov 03, 2014 9:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining muni bond spreads
Replies: 40
Views: 3513

Re: Only 3 factors determine stock market returns

abuss368 wrote:DFA has three different factors!



Lol! I'm trying to imagine what a fear-tilted portfolio would look like.
by baw703916
Sun Nov 02, 2014 4:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Only 3 factors determine stock market returns
Replies: 9
Views: 1272

Re: "Should You Be a Dividend Stock Investor?"

Thank you for sharing the article. A year or two ago, Warren Buffett discussed this topic in his annual Shareholder letter. I would encourage anyone who is interested in an additional perspective on the subject matter to read that letter. Most CEOs aren't nearly as adept as Buffett at putting their...
by baw703916
Sun Nov 02, 2014 4:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Should You Be a Dividend Stock Investor?"
Replies: 33
Views: 3351

Re: "Should You Be a Dividend Stock Investor?"

Uncle Pennybags wrote: They only pay once as the taxable reinvest dividends increase the cost bases.


That's true, but they need to have enough records to figure out what their basis is.

It will be less of n issue in the future since brokerages are now responsible for keeping track of the basis of covered shares.
by baw703916
Sun Nov 02, 2014 3:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Should You Be a Dividend Stock Investor?"
Replies: 33
Views: 3351

Re: 25% TLT 25% SHY 25%VT 25%IAU

Vanguard has an equivalent to TLT (VGLT) for a slightly lower E/R 0.12% vs. 0.15% Maybe BSV (E/R = 0.10%) for the short term bond? No Vanguard equivalent to IAU. Not sure whether IAU or GLD is cheaper. It sounds fine if you want to follow the Permanent Portfolio (not what I do, but to each his own).
by baw703916
Sun Nov 02, 2014 3:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 25% TLT 25% SHY 25%VT 25%IAU
Replies: 5
Views: 595

Re: It's easy to be a "Wealth Manager" (humor)

Thanks for posting, Taylor! It appears that the producer of the video (SCM) is a UK wealth manager that uses ETF portfolios--I watched a few of the other videos they posted. Which is probably a big improvement over traditional wealth managers, although I imagine Vanguard could easily beat them on co...
by baw703916
Sun Nov 02, 2014 2:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's easy to be a "Wealth Manager" (humor)
Replies: 6
Views: 1722

Re: How difficult is probate court? (NYC)

re "executor." I am in the process of dealing with an intestate estate. My lawyer said that I will be appointed "administrator" not "executor" but there is no practical difference. "Executor" is just for the case where there is a will. That's California, not ...
by baw703916
Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How difficult is probate court? (NYC)
Replies: 13
Views: 1703

Re: Career change: realistic expectations and risks

It is hard to predict the future. I read the newspapers about the need for more STEM graduates and how we should increase teaching in the STEM fields. On the same pages as those articles are reports of all the layoffs at places like Merck, Pfizer, Hewlett-Packard, etc. So which is it: We need more ...
by baw703916
Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career change: realistic expectations and risks
Replies: 27
Views: 2826

Re: ACA and sudden drastic change in income

Obamacare: More Than 214,000 Health Care Providers Are Opting Out Of Obamacare Exchange Plans Due To Burdensome Costs "It is estimated that where private plans pay $1.00 for a service, Medicare pays $0.80, and ACA exchange plans are now paying about $0.60," a study by the think-tank Ameri...
by baw703916
Sat Nov 01, 2014 7:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ACA and sudden drastic change in income
Replies: 20
Views: 2111

Re: "Should You Be a Dividend Stock Investor?"

I own a few of Wisdomtree's dividend funds--because there isn't really a true ISV, EMV, or EMSV fund out there. Dividends are sort of a value tilt, albeit not a great one, but it's still an area that's lacking.
by baw703916
Sat Nov 01, 2014 7:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Should You Be a Dividend Stock Investor?"
Replies: 33
Views: 3351

Re: Yield Curve Investigations

One question somewhat related to this thread that I've thought about a little lately: The inverted yield curve is often taken as a harbinger of a recession. It's not 100% accurate (the wag is "the inverted yield curve has predicted 10 out of the last 6 recessions" or something like that). ...
by baw703916
Sat Nov 01, 2014 5:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Investigations
Replies: 71
Views: 7114

Re: Would you invest in taxable active funds if you had no i

Have you looked at Wellington? The two look quite similar in performance.
by baw703916
Sat Nov 01, 2014 2:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you invest in taxable active funds if you had no incom
Replies: 15
Views: 930

Re: Would you invest in taxable active funds if you had no i

They will have to beat TSM by 70 bp per year just to compensate for the higher expense ratio.
by baw703916
Sat Nov 01, 2014 2:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you invest in taxable active funds if you had no incom
Replies: 15
Views: 930

Re: Does it matter when I buy Vanguard?

mickeyd wrote:As a long time owner/investor @ Vanguard I am livid that I was not advised that the company was for sale. Thanks for the heads up.


It's owned by the investors in its funds...so the more you invest in the funds, the more of the company you will own! :)
by baw703916
Sat Nov 01, 2014 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does it matter when I buy Vanguard?
Replies: 13
Views: 1803

Re: Yield Curve Investigations

Kevin, The Bloomberg site has a muni yield curve for bonds rated AAA by at least one rating agency. I've found it helpful in following how munis are priced relative to taxable bonds. http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/ Currently it shows a yield of 2.12% for 10 year AAA...
by baw703916
Sat Nov 01, 2014 1:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Investigations
Replies: 71
Views: 7114

Re: Yield Curve Investigations

I would argue though that for the specific case of comparing interest rates between taxable and tax-exempt bonds, it is the ratio that matters, not the absolute difference. For example if you are in the 25% Federal tax bracket, then a Treasury bond will have the same after-tax return as a tax-exemp...
by baw703916
Sat Nov 01, 2014 12:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Investigations
Replies: 71
Views: 7114

Re: Yield Curve Investigations

Indeed. Although I've heard this mentioned before, I've never really paid much attention to it, although I do own muni funds. I was actually surprised when I saw that the ratio was almost 160% for the 10-year securities. The ratio is similarly high for other terms (crazy high for shorter-terms; e.g...
by baw703916
Sat Nov 01, 2014 12:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Investigations
Replies: 71
Views: 7114
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