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Re: Donald Trump - The Apprentice

How about one where John Bogle fires active managers if they can't beat the market after expenses? :twisted:
by baw703916
Thu Aug 28, 2014 11:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Donald Trump - The Apprentice
Replies: 15
Views: 936

Re: Chicken or Fish

Peanut butter :)
by baw703916
Thu Aug 28, 2014 5:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chicken or Fish
Replies: 10
Views: 608

Re: California residents - do you have earthquake insurance?

Well, actually ... I'd venture most of California is at risk. The last few big earthquakes, including the Napa one, occurred along fault lines that were largely unknown to seismologists. They don't know a helluva lot more than we do. Most of *coastal* California is at risk. Most of the interior has...
by baw703916
Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: California residents - do you have earthquake insurance?
Replies: 49
Views: 2438

Re: Should I offload Micro Caps?

The other microcap ETFs out there are PZI and WMCR. PZI does seem more valuey, but hasn't performed much differently than IWC. Because there is going to be a lot of turnover in microcap companies, I'm just not sure how a mutual fund (even a passive one) without an ETF share class can be very tax eff...
by baw703916
Wed Aug 27, 2014 7:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I offload Micro Caps?
Replies: 8
Views: 908

Re: Copyright question

I'm tempted to make a joke about strange BEDfellows. I'm glad you gave in to the temptation. I have been making puns such as "BEDtime stories" and "put it to BED" but have not thought of this one. Thanks, Victoria I think I understand. You have no problem with strange BEDfellows...
by baw703916
Wed Aug 27, 2014 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Copyright question
Replies: 27
Views: 1449

Re: Copyright question

VictoriaF wrote: The difference this time is that I have invented a topic and gave it a catchy name ("BED"). I don't as much mind people using my slides as usurpating my BED.

Victoria


I'm tempted to make a joke about strange BEDfellows.
by baw703916
Wed Aug 27, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Copyright question
Replies: 27
Views: 1449

Re: Should I offload Micro Caps?

I own IWC in taxable. It has never had a distribution in the several years I've owned it--the ETF structure makes a huge difference in allowing for index turnover w/o tax consequences. It has lagged BRSIX somewhat in 2013-14, but the difference in the 5 year performance between the two funds is almo...
by baw703916
Tue Aug 26, 2014 11:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I offload Micro Caps?
Replies: 8
Views: 908

Re: S&P500 over 2000

If I win the Bogleheads contest, there will be a lot of new posts in the "stocks in free fall" thread during the remainder of the year.
by baw703916
Tue Aug 26, 2014 5:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 over 2000
Replies: 67
Views: 4903

Re: How I beat Indexing... in 1 hour

Raybo wrote:In a store today, I took 4 pennies out of a cup next to the register to help me pay a 99 cent bill, a quick 4%!

And, I didn't deplete the cup. If I go back every day and make the same 4%, I can double my SWR!



Personally, I'm hoping for a SWR of more than 4 cents per day. :)
by baw703916
Tue Aug 26, 2014 5:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I beat Indexing... in 1 hour
Replies: 52
Views: 6655

Re: S&P500 over 2000

If the S&P drops 10% now, it will be a much bigger drop that if it had happened in 2009!
by baw703916
Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 over 2000
Replies: 67
Views: 4903

Re: Fidelity front page: Is that value stock cheap or troubl

What a bizarre world. Today they're advocating buying "value" stocks based on technical indicators and momentum... A couple months ago they were advocating buying "growth" stocks based on fundamentals: https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/investing-ideas/growth-cheap Seems like e...
by baw703916
Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity front page: Is that value stock cheap or troubled?
Replies: 9
Views: 1036

Re: look at small value etfs

yes , but in fact if you own smaller and more valuey stocks you can then own less equity overall and have a lower risk portfolio without having lower returns, as long as combine with high quality bonds, not HY You have to decide how much exposure you want to market, size, and value, and construct a...
by baw703916
Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: look at small value etfs
Replies: 34
Views: 2940

Re: look at small value etfs

If you liked the dot.coms, you should be crazy about small caps right now. Their P/E is in nosebleed territory: The first thing that jumped at me was IWM’s price-earnings ratio (P/E) of 83. That’s more than four times the P/E of its sister ETF containing the top 1,000 companies the iShares Russell ...
by baw703916
Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: look at small value etfs
Replies: 34
Views: 2940

Re: WSJ/Zweig- The Decline and Fall of Fund Managers

Guess they'll have to start selling timeshares or market-linked annuities.
by baw703916
Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ/Zweig- The Decline and Fall of Fund Managers
Replies: 21
Views: 2327

Re: Capital Gain Tax on Muni Bond Funds

Yes, if you sell shares for a capital gain, you do have to pay taxes on the net gain (which can be short or long term, depending on how long you have held it). Another thing to be aware of, if you sell shares of a tax-exempt bond fund that you have held for less than 6 months for a loss, you can onl...
by baw703916
Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Capital Gain Tax on Muni Bond Funds
Replies: 15
Views: 1128

Re: Is the Aggregate Index Too Heavy in Treasuries?

My point is that in equities (at least for a single market, the U.S. say), the market portfolio is thought to necessarily be on the efficient frontier (again, only considering a universe where all investors have a 100% allocation to equities in their own country). I don't see how that holds for bond...
by baw703916
Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Aggregate Index Too Heavy in Treasuries?
Replies: 63
Views: 2837

Re: look at small value etfs

As a reminder, the smaller and more "valuey" the stocks that a fund owns, the higher the expected returns of the portfolio are. Is it not equally true that the smaller and more "valuey" the stocks that a fund owns, the higher the expected risk of the portfolio is? Don't both of ...
by baw703916
Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: look at small value etfs
Replies: 34
Views: 2940

Re: Is the Aggregate Index Too Heavy in Treasuries?

Anyway IMO TBM funds are a dog's breakfast for which I don't understand the appeal, once and if one accepts that 'own the whole market' has less significance in fixed income than equity. Interesting. Why do you believe that owning the market is less important in fixed income? The market decides the...
by baw703916
Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Aggregate Index Too Heavy in Treasuries?
Replies: 63
Views: 2837

Re: Municipal bonds 1y returns - exuberance and caution

I bought into a couple of muni funds earlier in the year. They've done well. But comparing to an online savings account, the online savings account looks better to me now with the lower yields from the muni funds, and since it is looking more likely that I will need the money sometime in the next y...
by baw703916
Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Municipal bonds 1y returns - exuberance and caution
Replies: 40
Views: 3461

Re: look at small value etfs

JKL tax cost looks like it's right in line with the others, at least according to M* (with the exception of IJS which is extra-efficient). JKL had a great 10 years-- #1 in category. Only 258 holdings, though http://i61.tinypic.com/2w33z11.jpg Interesting, thanks for posting those numbers. I looked ...
by baw703916
Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: look at small value etfs
Replies: 34
Views: 2940

Re: Fidelity front page: Is that value stock cheap or troubl

I think they're saying to buy DFSVX (passive value fund with a screen against negative momentum).

Or just buy everything and assume there's some wheat along with the chaff.
by baw703916
Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity front page: Is that value stock cheap or troubled?
Replies: 9
Views: 1036

Re: look at small value etfs

Good article, Larry. It isn't often that an analysis of SV ETFs includes JKL, the one that I chose for my portfolio. One thing that is also worth considering, for those using this article as a reference for choosing a fund for a taxable account: JKL does tend to have a slightly higher tax cost in pa...
by baw703916
Fri Aug 22, 2014 2:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: look at small value etfs
Replies: 34
Views: 2940

Re: When did you hear of Bill Miller and Legg Mason Value Tr

In any event, since the fund is nominally a large value fund, the appropriate index comparison should be the Vanguard Value Index Fund. It didn't beat that one for 15 straight years.

As for "excitement," I never felt that.
by baw703916
Thu Aug 21, 2014 10:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did you hear of Bill Miller and Legg Mason Value Trust?
Replies: 32
Views: 2318

Re: Municipal bonds 1y returns - exhuberance and caution

Part of what is happening is that the relative yields between Treasuries and AAA munis are returning to their normal range. Ever since 2007 muni yields have been higher than those of Treasuries more often than not, even before taking into consideration the tax benefit. This was due to a variety of f...
by baw703916
Thu Aug 21, 2014 10:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Municipal bonds 1y returns - exuberance and caution
Replies: 40
Views: 3461

Re: Is the Aggregate Index Too Heavy in Treasuries?

It depends on whether one wants to view it as a strategy index (in Rick Ferri's terminology) or a market index (indicative of what taxable nominal investment grade bonds in general are doing).
by baw703916
Thu Aug 21, 2014 6:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Aggregate Index Too Heavy in Treasuries?
Replies: 63
Views: 2837

Re: TSP funds in Morningstar Xray

C Fund = VFINX
S Fund = VXMEX
F Fund = Total Bond Market
I fund = EAFE (EFA)
G fund has no exact analog: analogous to VFITX in terms of yield, short term Treasury in terns of risk.
by baw703916
Thu Aug 21, 2014 6:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP funds in Morningstar Xray
Replies: 2
Views: 306

Re: A random walk...

If the market follows a random walk, why don't returns follow a normal distribution? The market isn't actually a random walk, it's a levy flight. Which is another way of saying "it's not a random walk, it's much worse than that." A Levy flight down Wall Street could be interesting: you wo...
by baw703916
Thu Aug 21, 2014 4:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A random walk...
Replies: 21
Views: 1671

Re: A random walk...

Hard to say exactly what the functional form of the distribution is...but it almost certainly has fatter tails than a normal distribution. Also, the time scaling isn't right (a random walk should have a t^0.5 scaling of variance.
by baw703916
Thu Aug 21, 2014 3:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A random walk...
Replies: 21
Views: 1671

Re: A random walk...

If the market follows a random walk, why don't returns follow a normal distribution?
by baw703916
Thu Aug 21, 2014 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A random walk...
Replies: 21
Views: 1671

Re: Indexing in EM, and Templeton's Mobius

I'm sure having a famous namesake helps in Mobius' case.

I'm sure if someone with the same last name but unrelated to Albert started the Einstein Fund, that would have an advantage too, all else being equal.
by baw703916
Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing in EM, and Templeton's Mobius
Replies: 7
Views: 613

Re: US REITs already have international exposure

And we don't need to buy international equities in general, because the S&P 500 makes a lot of their profits from international operations.

(I disagree with the statement above)
by baw703916
Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US REITs already have international exposure
Replies: 14
Views: 1234

Re: WSJ: Is Your Portfolio Too Diversified?

Personally, I do not understand how "small value stocks" can be considered an "asset class," either. How can they be anything more than a "subset of an asset class?" I don't consider Wikipedia to be too authoritative on investing, but I do see that it says https://en.w...
by baw703916
Sun Aug 17, 2014 11:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Is Your Portfolio Too Diversified?
Replies: 23
Views: 3308

Re: WSJ: Is Your Portfolio Too Diversified?

With any diversified portfolio which includes different asset classes, there will always be one class which has underperformed the others over any historical time period. So you can always say after the fact, that you didn't need that asset class, and in fact you would have done better without it. D...
by baw703916
Sun Aug 17, 2014 10:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Is Your Portfolio Too Diversified?
Replies: 23
Views: 3308

Re: Do Super wealthy have access to different investing vehi

Bill Bernstein quote (may not be quite verbatim):

The rich aren't like you and me. They have many more ways to lose money.
by baw703916
Sat Aug 16, 2014 2:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Super wealthy have access to different investing vehicles
Replies: 76
Views: 6261

Re: 'Risk Creep' - new term

The "equivalent to MM or govt. securities" argument lost me at "leveraged"! Good definition, VT. It seems to be especially pervasive in fixed income these days. With interest rates so low, there's a huge incentive to reach for yield, especially for fund sponsors charging higher f...
by baw703916
Sat Aug 16, 2014 10:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Risk Creep' - new term
Replies: 26
Views: 2199

Re: WSJ: Is Your Portfolio Too Diversified?

Which portfolio will generate the highest return in the next 20 years?
by baw703916
Sat Aug 16, 2014 10:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Is Your Portfolio Too Diversified?
Replies: 23
Views: 3308

Re: Market Timing?

Yep. This is the reason why some people get rich in the markets, and some do not. You have to buy when everyone else is running for cover, and even then you don't know it is the bottom. Buffett noted that he bought WPO shares in the 70's when they were trading at a fraction of their intrinsic value...
by baw703916
Sat Aug 16, 2014 12:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing?
Replies: 20
Views: 1231

Re: Market Timing?

Here's what Buffett wrote in the NY Times on Oct. 17, 2008 for all to see: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html?_r=0 So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (Th...
by baw703916
Fri Aug 15, 2014 11:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing?
Replies: 20
Views: 1231

Re: Berkshire Hathaway - Warren Buffett - Anyone own the sto

Most of the businesses were privately held--BNSF was one of the few exceptions. Yes you could have bought high yield bonds in 2008, but not from any issuer as well connected and liable to quickly recover as GS.
by baw703916
Fri Aug 15, 2014 8:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway - Warren Buffett - Anyone own the stock?
Replies: 110
Views: 9520

Re: Berkshire Hathaway - Warren Buffett - Anyone own the sto

There is a difference in that a significant portion of Berkshires book value is in their holdings of stocks (and cash) you could go and buy yourself without paying the premium of having Buffett do it for you. For companies in which Berkshire holds common stock, that's true. But most of the purchase...
by baw703916
Fri Aug 15, 2014 8:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway - Warren Buffett - Anyone own the stock?
Replies: 110
Views: 9520

Re: How to ensure military members don't get ripped off

Is the TSP functional today? Have you made a transaction in the past 3 months? ... I'm hopeful that it will improve at some point but if Vanguard took multiple weeks to execute a transaction for you today would you stay with them in the hope that someday they'll get better? It takes a month to alte...
by baw703916
Fri Aug 15, 2014 7:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to ensure military members don't get ripped off
Replies: 71
Views: 4239

Re: How to ensure military members don't get ripped off

Ketawa:

Upton Sinclair wrote: It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!
by baw703916
Wed Aug 13, 2014 4:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to ensure military members don't get ripped off
Replies: 71
Views: 4239

Re: How to ensure military members don't get ripped off

The TSP is what it is. A combination of very low fee index funds and some target date funds. Probably THE lowest fee index funds. I like it fine but will be transferring out upon retirement for a variety of reasons among them investment choices, avoiding the rules involved, and ease of use. I'd ask...
by baw703916
Wed Aug 13, 2014 4:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to ensure military members don't get ripped off
Replies: 71
Views: 4239

Re: How to ensure military members don't get ripped off

In my opinion the best method is through a more informal mentoring of sorts. For example, when the TSP became available to service members, several officers/NCOs in my operating location (relatively small group of Airmen) sat many of us junior enlisted down and explained its merits. I try to do the...
by baw703916
Wed Aug 13, 2014 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to ensure military members don't get ripped off
Replies: 71
Views: 4239

Re: How to ensure military members don't get ripped off

It's a risk free investment, but has a higher return than the risk free rate. It is a free lunch (when the yield curve isn't inverted) for the reasons I've explained above. Currently the G Fund yield is 2.375%. While that's low compared to historical rates, it's a heck of a lot higher than the rate ...
by baw703916
Wed Aug 13, 2014 3:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to ensure military members don't get ripped off
Replies: 71
Views: 4239

Re: How to ensure military members don't get ripped off

While the G fund has zero risk, as every investor knows when you eliminate all risk, all you get is the risk free rate of return. If you can live on it, go for it. If you want a better return you can get it. No, this conclusion only applies to publicly available investments which can be purchased i...
by baw703916
Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to ensure military members don't get ripped off
Replies: 71
Views: 4239

Re: How to ensure military members don't get ripped off

1. Limited investment menu. TSP offer only 3 index funds, an international fund and the G fund which invests solely in US tresasuries. Only other options are 5 target funds. About $120B or 40% of the TSP is invested in the G fund which had a compound return of 1.89% in 2013 and will be lower this y...
by baw703916
Tue Aug 12, 2014 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to ensure military members don't get ripped off
Replies: 71
Views: 4239

Re: How to ensure military members don't get ripped off

Here's the memo referenced in the article. It discusses whether the TSP should open a mutual fund window. The portions quoted in the article are on page 10.

http://www.frtib.gov/pdf/minutes/MM-2014May-Att4.pdf
by baw703916
Tue Aug 12, 2014 6:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to ensure military members don't get ripped off
Replies: 71
Views: 4239

Re: Copyright question

Useful article. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copyright#Copyright_notices_in_the_United_States My underlining: Before 1989, the use of a copyright notice – consisting of the copyright symbol (©, the letter C inside a circle), the abbreviation "Copr.", or the word "Copyright", fo...
by baw703916
Tue Aug 12, 2014 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Copyright question
Replies: 27
Views: 1449
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