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Re: Emerging Markets: making up 5% of your equities?

livesoft wrote: I'm sure lots of folks bought EM back in the first week fo February, right?


Is Feb. 11 close enough?
by baw703916
Sat Jul 12, 2014 6:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets: making up 5% of your equities?
Replies: 47
Views: 3582

Re: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio

Here's a question I asked wbern on another thread (one that he started on commodities funds) recently regarding his thoughts on precious metal equities, and his reply Jeffy: Good point; the precious metals producers were the worst of the lot, and they actually did a little worse than PCRIX [PIMCO Co...
by baw703916
Sat Jul 12, 2014 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Precious Metals & Mining Fund Improve a Portfolio?
Replies: 29
Views: 3057

Re: stocks about to plunge

Let me guess. It's a stock picker's market, isn't it?
by baw703916
Tue Jul 08, 2014 10:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stocks about to plunge
Replies: 39
Views: 7656

Re: In Which Theories Should I Have Confidence?

livesoft wrote:Use a psychiatrist in Dublin.


If you ask your GPS to plot the quickest route to his office, what does it say?
by baw703916
Mon Jul 07, 2014 10:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In Which Theories Should I Have Confidence?
Replies: 43
Views: 4193

Re: In Which Theories Should I Have Confidence?

I'm a little pressed for time, so I will just put some thoughts in bullet form w/o much explanation. 1) A lot depends on how much in equities you intend your portfolio to have (i.e. how risky you will make it). Many people here on this board are retired or about to retire, and have conservative port...
by baw703916
Mon Jul 07, 2014 9:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In Which Theories Should I Have Confidence?
Replies: 43
Views: 4193

Re: Intermediate TIPS fund

I own LTPZ. That actually has a positive real yield (I'm patient, so I don't worry much about what it does in the meantime). And it's indexed...what's with Vanguard anyway? Do they really think they can outperform the TIPS market with active management?
by baw703916
Sat Jul 05, 2014 7:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate TIPS fund
Replies: 22
Views: 2573

Re: "Only a fraction of Americans directly own stocks"

Yep, a fraction. Probably somewhere between 0.001% and 99.999%.
by baw703916
Sat Jul 05, 2014 1:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Only a fraction of Americans directly own stocks"
Replies: 27
Views: 3262

Re: The Millionaire Next Door: Are You One?

livesoft wrote:Ah, yes: The Billionaire Next Door: Are You One?

But what kind of car do you drive? ;)


I think the answer would be "Whatever I want!"
by baw703916
Sat Jul 05, 2014 12:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door: Are You One?
Replies: 187
Views: 22140

Re: The Risk of Short-term Bond Funds

rleonardh wrote:So if you wanted to add a bond fund or treasuarys to the TBM, which would you chose?
Bond or treasuary. Short,intermidate,long?


I'd choose TIPS, because they have different characteristics and aren't included in TBM.
by baw703916
Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Risk of Short-term Bond Funds
Replies: 152
Views: 10128

Re: If you wouldn't buy (stocks), then you must sell

lee1026 wrote:Also, capital gain taxes.


That was my first thought. Whoever made that rule must either be in a really low tax bracket or only have tax-advantaged accounts.
by baw703916
Thu Jul 03, 2014 1:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you wouldn't buy (stocks), then you must sell
Replies: 32
Views: 2998

Re: I'm worthless [Net worth is zero]

Just think of the percentage increase in your net worth with your next paycheck!!! :moneybag Entirely coincidentally, when I first decided to track my net worth and the change therein, my first starting datapoint happened to be a net worth of $61.28. Having a ~5,700% increase the next month felt gr...
by baw703916
Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm worthless [Net worth is zero]
Replies: 33
Views: 5022

Re: The Millionaire Next Door: Are You One?

A good Boglehead would never inform the neighbors as to MND status without first verifying adequate umbrella policy coverage.
by baw703916
Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:16 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door: Are You One?
Replies: 187
Views: 22140

Re: I'm worthless [Net worth is zero]

Just think of the percentage increase in your net worth with your next paycheck!!! :moneybag
by baw703916
Wed Jul 02, 2014 10:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm worthless [Net worth is zero]
Replies: 33
Views: 5022

Re: The Risk of Short-term Bond Funds

Thanks for this, but isn't your article really about successful market-timing of bond funds when you listed the cherry-picked one-year returns off of the lows of 2013 ? Look who's talking about cherry-picking? :twisted: If you are going to compare "short-term corporate bond index", then s...
by baw703916
Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Risk of Short-term Bond Funds
Replies: 152
Views: 10128

Re: TSP Advice

One tip on a slightly different topic: you can roll over 401k's to the TSP. The G Fund, ultra-low expenses, although the I (international) fund isn't as comprehensive as would be ideal. If you have less than ideal fund lineups in your old 401k's this may be worth considering (or do a rollover to a V...
by baw703916
Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP Advice
Replies: 6
Views: 613

Re: The Millionaire Next Door: Are You One?

As much as we like to believe different bogleheads are human. Like every other human we tend to want acceptance from others that we "belong" and want positive reinforcement of their actions. In the real world most try to get that through material objects. Here at bogleheads we get that th...
by baw703916
Mon Jun 30, 2014 9:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door: Are You One?
Replies: 187
Views: 22140

Re: Hit our number, should we change our asset allocation?

But when should the couple have bailed? Lets say they bought 2 million of cisco in 1998. Do they sell in 1999 when it is worth 5.4 million, 2000 when it was worth 11 million, mid 2000 when it was worth 15 million, 2001 when it was worth 5.5 million, or ins 2003 when it is worth 3 million? The choic...
by baw703916
Mon Jun 30, 2014 8:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hit our number, should we change our asset allocation?
Replies: 34
Views: 2743

Re: The Millionaire Next Door: Are You One?

Sounds like there's still an element of competing with the neighbors (albeit in frugality rather than consumption). The ideal to always have enough money for anything you might want or need to buy, whether planned in advance or spur of the moment/emergency, and not to concern oneself with what the n...
by baw703916
Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door: Are You One?
Replies: 187
Views: 22140

Re: How much to retire

To paraphrase Bill Bernstein's article "The Retirement Calculator from Hell," what matters is how much more than everyone else you save for retirement.
by baw703916
Sat Jun 28, 2014 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much to retire
Replies: 21
Views: 2914

Re: Market Timing

That's like "Hedge Funds for Dummies" (yes, a real book). Aren't all hedge funds for dummies (to invest in)?
by baw703916
Fri Jun 27, 2014 7:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing
Replies: 5
Views: 455

Re: burning 1 lb is how many calories?

The human body as a whole may be about 50% water, but the fat cells are...mostly fat.

So 3500 sounds reasonable to me.
by baw703916
Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: burning 1 lb is how many calories?
Replies: 69
Views: 5551

Re: Best route thru DC on I95

As you are approaching DC, tune the radio to 103.5 (news station with traffic updates every 10 minutes--pretty much necessary around here!). That may tell you which way to go (495, 295, or 95) depending on delays.
by baw703916
Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best route thru DC on I95
Replies: 23
Views: 1183

Re: FTSE all-world ex US index or TISM?

(unless you're a fanatic about only having three funds). ;) Three fund is what I'm after... We'll be in tax-advantaged accounts for most, if not all of our accumulating phase. Then you should buy TISM, as it has small caps as well as large caps. My situation is different as I tilt to small/value, a...
by baw703916
Thu Jun 26, 2014 12:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FTSE all-world ex US index or TISM?
Replies: 24
Views: 1138

Re: Improving the TSP [for current participants]

According to a memorandum from the FRTIB's Executive Director, Greg Long, addressing the proposed mutual fund window option and appended to the minutes of the Board's May 2014 meeting: "From TSP distribution data, we know that 45% of participants that separated from service in 2012 removed all...
by baw703916
Thu Jun 26, 2014 12:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the TSP [for current participants]
Replies: 29
Views: 3179

Re: FTSE all-world ex US index or TISM?

Vanguard also has the S&P 500 fund, the Completion Index fund, and TSM which is a combination of the two according to market weights. SImilarly, VEU=large caps only, VSS = small caps only, VXUS = both according to market weights I own VEU instead of VXUS. Why? I tax loss harvested between the tw...
by baw703916
Thu Jun 26, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FTSE all-world ex US index or TISM?
Replies: 24
Views: 1138

Re: Merton: 401(k) retirement plans face crisis

...an investment that is risk-free from an asset value standpoint may be very risky in income terms.


What does this mean? Why can't you just cash in 4% (or whatever the SWR is) per year?
by baw703916
Wed Jun 25, 2014 9:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merton: 401(k) retirement plans face crisis
Replies: 188
Views: 16748

Re: Post your Morningstar Box Style

Overall portfolio:
37.2% U.S. stocks, 25.8% International stocks, 35.6% Bonds, 1.4% cash and "other"

Equities style box:
11 - 15 - 12
13 - 10 - 07
17 - 09 - 06

Bond style box (horizontal axis: duration; vertical axis: credit quality):
62 - 00 - 01
00 - 33 - 00
00 - 00 - 00
by baw703916
Wed Jun 25, 2014 9:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Post your Morningstar Box Style
Replies: 24
Views: 1898

Re: Alternative to Broker Sold Municipal Bond Fund

I've been wrestling with the Muni vs not-Muni question, and one of the other posters in several threads brought up the issue of "risk" which has dramatically increased in the Muni world. Here is one of my postings over in another thread http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&a...
by baw703916
Tue Jun 24, 2014 9:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative to Broker Sold Municipal Bond Fund
Replies: 10
Views: 530

Re: Alternative to Broker Sold Municipal Bond Fund

Here's the page on the JH site, which gives a similar number: http://www.jhinvestments.com/Fund/Portfolio.aspx?ProductType=MutualFund&FundID=99075&ClassCode=A&BackToFundTableType=Price It is rather perplexing why Vanguard's funds have pretty similar duration and maturity, but for this fu...
by baw703916
Tue Jun 24, 2014 4:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative to Broker Sold Municipal Bond Fund
Replies: 10
Views: 530

Re: Equal Weighting vs Market Cap Weighting

I can state it's 9% large, 18% medium, and 75% small with just as much authority. "large" and "small" are words we can define any way we choose. I we define Apple, Exxon Mobile, Microsoft, Google, and Johnson and Johnson as the only large cap stocks out there, then yes. ;) https...
by baw703916
Tue Jun 24, 2014 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equal Weighting vs Market Cap Weighting
Replies: 38
Views: 1546

Re: Alternative to Broker Sold Municipal Bond Fund

I like baw's selections, but VWIUX and VWLUX have 50k minimums. If that's too high, consider VWLTX, which is the long term investor shares with an ER of 0.2% compared to Hancock's 0.84%. The Hancock fund also has a 4% front load. The yield on VWLTX is 2.56%, even with a lower duration than the Hanc...
by baw703916
Tue Jun 24, 2014 2:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative to Broker Sold Municipal Bond Fund
Replies: 10
Views: 530

Re: Long-Term Care Insurance? Is it a good idea?

There are many threads on the site considering this topic; I suggest doing a search for "LTCi". While it's possible that you may need LTC in the next 20 years, anything that caused that to happen would probably cause you to require it for a longer period of time than most if not all polici...
by baw703916
Tue Jun 24, 2014 2:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long-Term Care Insurance? Is it a good idea?
Replies: 24
Views: 1824

Re: Alternative to Broker Sold Municipal Bond Fund

Per Morningstar, TAMBX has the following characteristics: Avg Eff Duration 7.88 Yrs Avg Eff Maturity 17.38 Yrs Avg Credit Quality A SEC Yield: 2.38% The three most comparable Vanguard funds are: VWIUX (Vanguard Intermediate Term TE Admiral Shares): Avg Eff Duration 5.04 Yrs Avg Eff Maturity 5.20 Yrs...
by baw703916
Tue Jun 24, 2014 12:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative to Broker Sold Municipal Bond Fund
Replies: 10
Views: 530

Re: B Bernstein on Vgd Mid Cap Value vs Large Value Idx

richard wrote:Now all we need is a Vanguard tax-managed value fund.


A passive international value fund would be nice, too.
by baw703916
Sun Jun 22, 2014 6:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: B Bernstein on Vgd Mid Cap Value vs Large Value Idx
Replies: 25
Views: 2701

Re: B Bernstein on Vgd Mid Cap Value vs Large Value Idx

I decided to hold Vanguard Midcap Value instead of a large value fund for a couple reasons: 1) Large value has the highest dividend payout of any part of the style box. I'm constrained to own my large or mid value in taxable--so the tax cost/increase in AGI is something I'd rather avoid. 2) As demon...
by baw703916
Sun Jun 22, 2014 11:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: B Bernstein on Vgd Mid Cap Value vs Large Value Idx
Replies: 25
Views: 2701

Re: Retired Bogleheads want to relocate to California

As many others have pointed out, California is a big state, and the two areas you mention are very desirable locations in a large metro area. The Bay Area in general is even more expensive than southern California. One big question is what climate you are looking for--the coast of far northern Calif...
by baw703916
Sun Jun 22, 2014 11:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retired Bogleheads want to relocate to California
Replies: 109
Views: 6804

Re: Thoughts on adding Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining F

It would be helpful if they gave the correlation coefficient, which must be between -1 and 1, and whose definition would be recognized by anyone familiar with statistics. I have no idea what numerical scale they are using, or what a value of 53 actually means, without trying a lot of other asset cl...
by baw703916
Sun Jun 22, 2014 11:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on adding Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund
Replies: 44
Views: 8521

Re: Thoughts on adding Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining F

Vanguard R-squared Correlation Results -- Total Stock Market Index and Precious Metals have a correlation of 53 No criticism of you, thanks for mentioning this, but I do have a gripe about the website, It would be helpful if they gave the correlation coefficient, which must be between -1 and 1, and...
by baw703916
Sun Jun 22, 2014 10:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on adding Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund
Replies: 44
Views: 8521

Re: Torn between active and passive bond funds

Just pointing out that many of Vanguard's bond funds, including VIPSX (TIPS), VWITX (Intermediate Term Tax Exempt), and VFITX (IT Treasuries) are "active". Does anybody think they should be avoided because they aren't indexed? My point being that active vs. passive isn't always very meanin...
by baw703916
Sat Jun 21, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Torn between active and passive bond funds
Replies: 16
Views: 1317

Re: Tax Exempt Bond Fund as Emergency Fund?

I'm not sure I like the I-Bonds idea. The reason I-Bonds are nice is that they're tax-deferred, so you can decide when to cash them in and pay taxes on the interest. But if they're your emergency fund and stuff happens, you are forced to cash them in and incur a tax bill at what may be an inopportun...
by baw703916
Sat Jun 21, 2014 11:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Exempt Bond Fund as Emergency Fund?
Replies: 8
Views: 607

Re: Equity forecasting does not work

manwithnoname wrote:If equity forecasting doesnt work why are experts always publishing forecasts of future performance?

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=140830


What time period is Bernstein giving predictions for, and did the other participants say in response to my earlier post?
by baw703916
Sat Jun 21, 2014 1:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity forecasting does not work
Replies: 17
Views: 979

Re: If I am young, why not invest in a risky fund?

housen, If you think about it, there's a simple reason why REITs didn't offer protection in the 2008 bear market: the bear market was caused by a collapse in real estate, so having more invested in real estate wasn't going to be much help (for that particular bear market). You may find it interestin...
by baw703916
Sat Jun 21, 2014 1:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If I am young, why not invest in a risky fund?
Replies: 45
Views: 3147

Re: Is it impossible to buy individual foreign treasuries?

I'm reminded of this thread from about 2.5 years ago: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=86830 Lbill challenged everybody that if they believed risk = return, then why weren't they buying bonds of southern European countries? It would have been a profitable bet to have made at ...
by baw703916
Fri Jun 20, 2014 11:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it impossible to buy individual foreign treasuries?
Replies: 9
Views: 477

Re: Equity forecasting does not work

Are we claiming that PE10 isn't predictive of stock returns in the following decade? I think one year is too short a time scale for predictions based on some metric to not be swamped by noise. I believe the article looked at 2 return periods: 1-yr return and 5-yr return. And for predicting, the use...
by baw703916
Fri Jun 20, 2014 9:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity forecasting does not work
Replies: 17
Views: 979

Re: Equity forecasting does not work

Are we claiming that PE10 isn't predictive of stock returns in the following decade?

I think one year is too short a time scale for predictions based on some metric to not be swamped by noise.
by baw703916
Fri Jun 20, 2014 9:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity forecasting does not work
Replies: 17
Views: 979

Re: When To Use Municipal Bonds

If they have >$50k to put in the IT TE fund, the admiral shares for VWITX (VWIUX) have an E/R of 0.12%
by baw703916
Thu Jun 19, 2014 6:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When To Use Municipal Bonds
Replies: 31
Views: 1774

Re: When To Use Municipal Bonds

Bracket, I think that the issue of muni interest being effectively taxable (by causing social security to be taxed) only occurs in the phase-out region (when part but not all of social security income is taxed). If you have, say a really high income due to RMDs from 401k's, then all of your social s...
by baw703916
Thu Jun 19, 2014 5:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When To Use Municipal Bonds
Replies: 31
Views: 1774

Re: When To Use Municipal Bonds

As an aside, the Baird Intermediate Municipal Bond Fund has been mentioned on the board from time to time. The institutional shares (BMBIX) has a quite low minimum of only $25K, a reasonable E/R of 0.30, and a portfolio quality even higher than Vanguard's funds. It may be of interest for muni invest...
by baw703916
Thu Jun 19, 2014 4:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When To Use Municipal Bonds
Replies: 31
Views: 1774

Re: When To Use Municipal Bonds

I'm not sure that equating munis to corporates is an apples to apples comparison either. For general obligation bonds, they are backed by the full taxing authority of the issuer. Granted the issuer can't print money like the Federal Government, but they can levy taxes, and corporations can't do that...
by baw703916
Thu Jun 19, 2014 2:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When To Use Municipal Bonds
Replies: 31
Views: 1774

Re: When To Use Municipal Bonds

Apologies in advance if this is a dumb question but shouldn't the VBTLX (total bond index) be significantly higher than VWITX (intermediate term muni fund) ? Their five year returns are very close (4.84% vs 4.93%). Shouldn't VBTLX be higher since the income is subject to federal income tax? Other t...
by baw703916
Thu Jun 19, 2014 1:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When To Use Municipal Bonds
Replies: 31
Views: 1774
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