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Re: Principal Residence = Poor Investment?

As stated above by above posters, 15-30 year mortgage payments stay the same, while insurance and taxes may vary. Rent goes up. Did you know rent could also go down while mortgage payments stay the same? As always, the rent/buy decision is completely situation specific and there is no one right ans...
by avalpert
Wed Jul 30, 2014 1:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Principal Residence = Poor Investment?
Replies: 61
Views: 3239

Re: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon

Your data doesn't support your title - losing money for 20-30 years has happened is not the same thing as uncommon. Worst-case scenarios aren't particularly helpful at figuring out what is common or likely. avalpert, the chart clearly shows that the majority of counties have lost money in both 20 a...
by avalpert
Wed Jul 30, 2014 1:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon
Replies: 39
Views: 3306

Re: Principal Residence = Poor Investment?

As stated above by above posters, 15-30 year mortgage payments stay the same, while insurance and taxes may vary. Rent goes up. Did you know rent could also go down while mortgage payments stay the same? As always, the rent/buy decision is completely situation specific and there is no one right ans...
by avalpert
Wed Jul 30, 2014 12:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Principal Residence = Poor Investment?
Replies: 61
Views: 3239

Re: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon

Your data doesn't support your title - losing money for 20-30 years has happened is not the same thing as uncommon. Worst-case scenarios aren't particularly helpful at figuring out what is common or likely. Seems to me if you can lose money over a 30-year period out of a 112 that qualifies as "...
by avalpert
Wed Jul 30, 2014 12:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon
Replies: 39
Views: 3306

Re: With Rates Likes These, Why Would Anyone Go for a Mortga

One of the points made by the banker pitching the product was that the prime rate hasn't moved for several years (since 2009 from this chart: http://www.moneycafe.com/personal-finance/prime-rate-history). In other words look at how well this fund performed over the last few years - you can't afford...
by avalpert
Wed Jul 30, 2014 12:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: With Rates Likes These, Why Would Anyone Go for a Mortgage?
Replies: 12
Views: 2516

Re: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon

Your data doesn't support your title - losing money for 20-30 years has happened is not the same thing as uncommon. Worst-case scenarios aren't particularly helpful at figuring out what is common or likely.
by avalpert
Wed Jul 30, 2014 11:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: losing money for 20-30 years not uncommon
Replies: 39
Views: 3306

Re: Principal Residence = Poor Investment?

Principal residence ownership is part consumption and part poorly diversified investment in residential real estate - it might make sense as the former, it rarely makes sense apriori as the latter.
by avalpert
Tue Jul 29, 2014 9:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Principal Residence = Poor Investment?
Replies: 61
Views: 3239

Re: 529 - in-state only up to deduction amount?

Forget about the state tax deduction. You will be living with the fund you chose and its expense ratio for up to 18 years. Pick the best. A one time deduction on only the state taxes is insignificant in the big picture......Gordon I deduct the taxes from my contributions every single year in Illino...
by avalpert
Tue Jul 29, 2014 11:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 - in-state only up to deduction amount?
Replies: 9
Views: 614

Re: Best way to reach initial allocation in a bull market?

by mhalley » Fri Jul 25, 2014 6:31 am The standard boglehead answer is that if you have a desired aa, then go ahead and jump in and buy your mutual funds/etfs. Certainly I can understand how if you have been sitting out this latest run, jumping in right now could be pretty scary. If it were me, I w...
by avalpert
Tue Jul 29, 2014 9:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best way to reach initial allocation in a bull market?
Replies: 28
Views: 2516

Re: "best" online booking service for hotel room?

Try skyscanner.com to search all the sites at once.
by avalpert
Sun Jul 27, 2014 9:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "best" online booking service for hotel room?
Replies: 27
Views: 2079

Re: Calculus in determining Roth vs. Traditional?

You are making a bet on future tax rates relative to current one plain and simple. You have near perfect knowledge of your current tax rate and very little of the future tax rate - it is as good a method as any to make assumptions based on current tax law but the only thing you really know is that y...
by avalpert
Sun Jul 27, 2014 8:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Calculus in determining Roth vs. Traditional?
Replies: 8
Views: 862

Re: Factor investing - A parody

Frankly, it is the people who simultaneously can insist that Beta offers a true risk premium while also insisting none other could exist that are the silly ones. Well, I don't see you accepting the Apple risk premium. What part of the data is missing? (Before you say that small-value is a bigger co...
by avalpert
Sun Jul 27, 2014 11:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing - A parody
Replies: 30
Views: 1719

Re: Factor investing - A parody

[Seriously - invest in what you want to, it is your own money. But don't pretend that investing in a small corner of the market is actually safer then the whole market, because the more risks that you are taking, the bigger your risk are going to be, even if they are uncorrelated. The only time whe...
by avalpert
Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing - A parody
Replies: 30
Views: 1719

Re: Make Income the Outcome

Like any business decision or investment: it is all about the cash flow! Best. No, it really isn't - that is how people get duped into bad annuity type products. All investments should provide some form of cash flow. So do you exclude all stocks that don't pay dividends from your portfolio? What ab...
by avalpert
Sat Jul 26, 2014 10:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Make Income the Outcome
Replies: 49
Views: 3818

Re: Int'l Train Travel

You can find great train journeys all over the world so yo might want to narrow down on what else you want to do beside the train journey. Some of my favorites from my travels: The train from Winnipeg to Churchill in Manitoba - saw the Northern Lights from the train, and saw plenty of Polar Bears ne...
by avalpert
Sat Jul 26, 2014 9:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Int'l Train Travel
Replies: 28
Views: 1463

Re: Make Income the Outcome

abuss368 wrote:Like any business decision or investment: it is all about the cash flow!

Best.

No, it really isn't - that is how people get duped into bad annuity type products.
by avalpert
Sat Jul 26, 2014 6:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Make Income the Outcome
Replies: 49
Views: 3818

Re: Best way to reach initial allocation in a bull market?

^Understood. However, I don't think it'll be a problem. If the market drops 50% tomorrow, I'll be very happy :) One of the things that really hammered that home for me was a hypothetical situation in The Intelligent Investor, in which TV commentators switched their stance. "It's looking like a...
by avalpert
Sat Jul 26, 2014 5:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best way to reach initial allocation in a bull market?
Replies: 28
Views: 2516

Re: Make Income the Outcome

For us, as we get older, the account balance has become second on the priority scale. We have been watching the dividend stream from the Total Market Index funds we invest in grow each with compounding and new contributions. For us this is number one. Somehow it doesn't seem to me that ignoring tot...
by avalpert
Fri Jul 25, 2014 5:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Make Income the Outcome
Replies: 49
Views: 3818

Re: Make Income the Outcome

I detect more than a hint of noblesse oblige here. The huddled, unwashed masses need to be saved from themselves. There is a big irony in that. In my observations, it has been the elite, well educated, financially sophisticated (at least in their own minds) people who tend to make the biggest inves...
by avalpert
Fri Jul 25, 2014 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Make Income the Outcome
Replies: 49
Views: 3818

Re: Make Income the Outcome

For us, as we get older, the account balance has become second on the priority scale. We have been watching the dividend stream from the Total Market Index funds we invest in grow each with compounding and new contributions. For us this is number one. Somehow it doesn't seem to me that ignoring tot...
by avalpert
Fri Jul 25, 2014 3:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Make Income the Outcome
Replies: 49
Views: 3818

Re: Best way to reach initial allocation in a bull market?

I think I somewhat just answered my own question. The last 20% of this article is particularly relevant http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2014/04/22/efficient-market-baloney-says-famed-value-and-momentum-strategist-cliff-asness/. The whole thing is a great read though. According to Asness, bo...
by avalpert
Fri Jul 25, 2014 3:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best way to reach initial allocation in a bull market?
Replies: 28
Views: 2516

Re: Balancing saving with living now. (how do you do it?)

Alright here is a personal problem that I have been having ever since i started planning my future and coming to understand what money now can be in the future. I am finding it almost impossible now to not regret spending money on something that is not a necessity. Whenever i want something I think...
by avalpert
Wed Jul 23, 2014 11:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Balancing saving with living now. (how do you do it?)
Replies: 25
Views: 5025

Re: A case against Index Funds in India

<cut> His first argument against index funds shows he doesn't understand how they work at all. You only need to buy the components of the fund once, after that as the components of the fund go up and down you are constantly buying and selling to match the new balance - that happens automatically si...
by avalpert
Wed Jul 23, 2014 2:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A case against Index Funds in India
Replies: 32
Views: 1701

Re: A case against Index Funds in India

And in reading his response to a comment I find that what he is really doing is just one big equivocation fallacy using the term 'Index Fund' differently than everyone else: As I’ve explained in the post, when I say ‘index funds’, I mean funds that exactly track their respective indices. So in India...
by avalpert
Wed Jul 23, 2014 2:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A case against Index Funds in India
Replies: 32
Views: 1701

Re: A case against Index Funds in India

What the author of that piece demonstrated is that one shouldn't be looking to him for investment advice. His first argument against index funds shows he doesn't understand how they work at all. You only need to buy the components of the fund once, after that as the components of the fund go up and ...
by avalpert
Wed Jul 23, 2014 2:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A case against Index Funds in India
Replies: 32
Views: 1701

Re: Predict: S&P Doubles or Halves First?

There was some pretty silly and shoddy reasoning given as explanations for their prediction back in 2011 on this post (no need to call out individual ones) that are very good examples of how recency bias makes rational forecasting difficult. The obvious answer then was and still is that it will like...
by avalpert
Wed Jul 23, 2014 2:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predict: S&P Doubles or Halves First?
Replies: 36
Views: 2701

Re: Value Overvalued

It's still undervalued relative to growth - funny how that is always case
by avalpert
Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Overvalued
Replies: 23
Views: 2286

Re: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by invest

gvsucavie03 wrote:Assume the current bull market will continue forever.

Or assuming the bear market will last forever, or the double dip recession is inevitable, or stock will dip when QE3 ends, or...

How about we just go with assuming we know the future of the market.
by avalpert
Sun Jul 20, 2014 6:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by investing
Replies: 81
Views: 9254

Re: Developing a sound framework for optimal asset allocatio

Good question. I don't read too much previous work. I try to be original. I want to thank you for that laugh - this could be the funniest thing I've ever read on the internet. If only all the people who have actually pushed thinking forward with original ideas hadn't bothered to read previous work,...
by avalpert
Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Developing a sound framework for optimal asset allocation
Replies: 44
Views: 2730

Re: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity

... on the chance that the market will drop when QE3 ends. Chance is the key word here isn't it? Do you believe in establishing an AA to govern your investing? What is your target AA? Unless it's 100% stocks you'll probably be pulling some out of equities as they increase anyway. If it is 100% stoc...
by avalpert
Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity
Replies: 46
Views: 2963

Re: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity

Interesting...so everyone here is of the same mind set? There are no market opportunities, only market timing? That surprises me with a forum of this size. Keep in mind, I'm not advocating putting your retirement fund in penny stocks; I'm talking about taking some portion of your money out of the m...
by avalpert
Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity
Replies: 46
Views: 2963

Re: was Bogle right about ETFs?

ETFs were designed to be sold and bought, sold and bought, etc... Bogleheads don't buy products designed to be sold. Bogleheads don't cut off their nose to spite their face... Well unlike you I haven't actually read the definitive list of things Bogleheads don't do but I think I am on safer ground ...
by avalpert
Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: was Bogle right about ETFs?
Replies: 26
Views: 2891

Re: What Do You Tilt to Outside of the Three Fund (at least

This is an incoherent poll and does a great job illustrating some of the simplistic misunderstandings people have of factor-based models, portfolio theories and tilting in general. As some simple examples, how much would one need to invest in rental properties for them to be 'tilting' to it? Privat...
by avalpert
Fri Jul 18, 2014 9:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What Do You Tilt to Outside of the Three Fund (at least 4%)?
Replies: 25
Views: 1392

Re: Keep house or sell

You still haven't provided the most important number to determining if it is worth it - what is the condo worth? I don't care what the difference is between what you paid and what you can sell I only care what you can sell it for now.
by avalpert
Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keep house or sell
Replies: 14
Views: 939

Re: What Do You Tilt to Outside of the Three Fund (at least

This is an incoherent poll and does a great job illustrating some of the simplistic misunderstandings people have of factor-based models, portfolio theories and tilting in general. As some simple examples, how much would one need to invest in rental properties for them to be 'tilting' to it? Private...
by avalpert
Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What Do You Tilt to Outside of the Three Fund (at least 4%)?
Replies: 25
Views: 1392

Re: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by invest

- failing to buy a house when you can afford it and you are a long term holder (this is more controversial, but it was only accident I bought a flat in the mid 1990s in London, and that flat would now be worth 5x what I paid for it) I'd strongly disagree with this - particularly as it is stated. As...
by avalpert
Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by investing
Replies: 81
Views: 9254

Re: How much do you spend on your hobby annually?

I'm a certified private pilot who flies regularly for fun, a scuba diver who takes at least one trip to Bonaire every year, take at least two international trips a year (just got back from a trip to Malawi, Zambia and Mozambique), go camping and indoor climbing with the kids and dabble in a handful ...
by avalpert
Wed Jul 16, 2014 5:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend on your hobby annually?
Replies: 77
Views: 7022

Re: Monthly maintenance cost for a house?

Here are a few more things to think about: So many half-truths in here it is worth correcting them lest someone read this and unthinkingly take it as obviously true: Bear in mind that for a comparable place, the cost of renting is not going to be signficantly cheaper if any than the costs of owning...
by avalpert
Mon May 19, 2014 8:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Monthly maintenance cost for a house?
Replies: 28
Views: 2365

Re: Taking a leave of absence for one year

But returning to work isn't as big of a deal as people think. I think people who don't encounter any difficulties tend to pooh-pooh the real potential for problems. And I think people who don't try tend to overestimate the potential problems (which should come as no surprise to anyone here as overe...
by avalpert
Sat May 17, 2014 10:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taking a leave of absence for one year
Replies: 37
Views: 2749

Re: Taking a leave of absence for one year

I have twice taken extended time off in my now 15 year career in management consulting/professional service. Once I did so as a sabbatical with the blessing of my company after being there for 4 years (at the age of 27) I took ~8 months to travel with my wife mostly in Southeast Asia. ~5 years afte...
by avalpert
Thu May 15, 2014 11:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taking a leave of absence for one year
Replies: 37
Views: 2749

Re: Stock Market to Plunge? What a friend said.

Maybe a bit speculative but my co-worker said that stocks, it seems are about to take a dive. When I asked what would trigger it (unlike 2000 being a dot com bubble and 2008 real estate ... what is the factor now), his answer was that the government is cutting down on printing money and thus this c...
by avalpert
Wed May 14, 2014 8:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market to Plunge? What a friend said.
Replies: 78
Views: 6129

Re: 401k - how to increase % of salary contribution limits

That answer from HR doesn't make much sense. They are probably a safe harbor plan anyway with the 3% contributions and even if they aren't keeping the percent of salary down can only hurt with non-discrimination testing because it limits the $ amount the lower paid employees can contribute more than...
by avalpert
Wed May 14, 2014 8:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k - how to increase % of salary contribution limits
Replies: 4
Views: 807

Re: Taking a leave of absence for one year

I have twice taken extended time off in my now 15 year career in management consulting/professional service. Once I did so as a sabbatical with the blessing of my company after being there for 4 years (at the age of 27) I took ~8 months to travel with my wife mostly in Southeast Asia. ~5 years after...
by avalpert
Wed May 14, 2014 8:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taking a leave of absence for one year
Replies: 37
Views: 2749

Re: What our company's 401k Advisor said about 1.5% Fees

So .... I am now named the advocate to our 401k plan. Our meeting with our 401k adviser takes place 2 weeks from now. preparing powerpoint slides and possible question and answers .. I am trying to foresee what the adviser may say to combat my presentation. He may say ... your fees are higher becau...
by avalpert
Fri May 09, 2014 2:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What our company's 401k Advisor said about 1.5% Fees
Replies: 113
Views: 14987

Re: What our company's 401k Advisor said about 1.5% Fees

what I am curious to know is ... is the CFOs argument valid? Are we paying high fees (an no way around this) because our total asset as a company is low? Because not many people contribute, etc??? is this a dead end??? No he isn't. I'm at a ~50 person firm and we switched to Employee Fiduciary with...
by avalpert
Fri May 09, 2014 9:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What our company's 401k Advisor said about 1.5% Fees
Replies: 113
Views: 14987

Re: Non Deductible IRA make sense in this case?

If the non-deductible IRA contribution will be in a bond fund, the tax deferral is a net gain; in a taxable account, you will pay tax at the same rate on your gains, so you might as well pay the tax later. IS that really accurate? Isn't it more accurate to say the tax deferral is neutral pending th...
by avalpert
Thu May 08, 2014 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Non Deductible IRA make sense in this case?
Replies: 20
Views: 901

Re: What our company's 401k Advisor said about 1.5% Fees

what I am curious to know is ... is the CFOs argument valid? Are we paying high fees (an no way around this) because our total asset as a company is low? Because not many people contribute, etc??? is this a dead end??? No he isn't. I'm at a ~50 person firm and we switched to Employee Fiduciary with...
by avalpert
Thu May 08, 2014 6:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What our company's 401k Advisor said about 1.5% Fees
Replies: 113
Views: 14987

Re: Is equity diversification over-hyped?

If your US equity position is TSM, you are comfortable with getting the market weight of the small risk factor and not likely looking at taking more risk, even at the expense of potentially not getting more gain. The reason to own TSM is low cost. If one doesn't want the extra risk of small caps th...
by avalpert
Thu May 08, 2014 5:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is equity diversification over-hyped?
Replies: 45
Views: 3374

Re: What our company's 401k Advisor said about 1.5% Fees

what I am curious to know is ... is the CFOs argument valid? Are we paying high fees (an no way around this) because our total asset as a company is low? Because not many people contribute, etc??? is this a dead end??? No he isn't. I'm at a ~50 person firm and we switched to Employee Fiduciary with...
by avalpert
Thu May 08, 2014 5:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What our company's 401k Advisor said about 1.5% Fees
Replies: 113
Views: 14987

Re: last min international flights

This site usually gives the most comprehensive fare options available (though you need to use something else to book): http://matrix.itasoftware.com/ Though if you are looking at possible connections not on ITA (like some regional international carriers or charter flights) skyscanner.com often can c...
by avalpert
Tue Apr 29, 2014 5:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: last min international flights
Replies: 8
Views: 1069
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