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Re: AliBaba

Alibaba is a great business. BABA will probably do well unless the Chinese government gets involved or Jack Ma tries to treat investors the way he treated Yahoo with regards to Alipay. But this Cayman Islands company with a dubious claim to Alibaba's earnings seems more like loaning money to a disr...
by avalpert
Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AliBaba
Replies: 145
Views: 11791

Re: 529 Early Withdrawal

Hi, I have a question about 529 early withdrawals. It seems like you can withdraw principal without any penalty and that the penalty only applies to interest. I live in a state with a tax deduction for my 529 (Utah). What happens if I take the deduction then very soon afterward remove the money fro...
by avalpert
Tue Nov 04, 2014 11:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 Early Withdrawal
Replies: 10
Views: 669

Re: 529 Early Withdrawal

Can I take all the earnings and pass them to another beneficiary, then take out the contributions on a non-prorated basis? What if I live in a state that allows tax deductions, but then later move to a state that does not. If making an early withdrawal, how is the state tax managed? How would the o...
by avalpert
Tue Nov 04, 2014 10:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 Early Withdrawal
Replies: 10
Views: 669

Re: AliBaba

SuperSaver wrote:Alibaba is up 13% since IPO....

VTI? Not so much.

BABA was close to a sure thing. Kudos to those who rolled the dice.

What an unserious post. Where were you for the first month after the IPO when it trailed VTI.

As much a sure thing as any lottery ticket...
by avalpert
Tue Nov 04, 2014 4:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AliBaba
Replies: 145
Views: 11791

Re: Should I bite the bullet and sell my mining stocks?

You're very good at only quoting snippets from a post. Did you even see what I said in my original response and quoted for your benefit again? I quote snippets because I prefer keeping the discussion focused. Yeah, I saw what you said in your original post but it is a distraction from the conversat...
by avalpert
Mon Nov 03, 2014 5:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I bite the bullet and sell my mining stocks?
Replies: 23
Views: 2246

Re: Comparing Total Returns of Top CD Offerings with an S&P

yes, the article was extremely selective in picking the CDs that they compared to S&P, but I am also extremely selective when I pick my CDs, i choose highest returns FDIC insurance and never buy anything returning less than 3% (in current enviroment). But I'm selective in picking equities - you...
by avalpert
Mon Nov 03, 2014 3:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing Total Returns of Top CD Offerings with an S&P 500
Replies: 38
Views: 2185

Re: Comparing Total Returns of Top CD Offerings with an S&P

well if you look at rolling returns of 60/40 portfolio over 30 years periods and you look at real return, there are plenty of years where real return barely got 1%. I have a graph but it is on my desktop and I am not sure how to insert picture here without url... and that 1% real rolling returns ar...
by avalpert
Mon Nov 03, 2014 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing Total Returns of Top CD Offerings with an S&P 500
Replies: 38
Views: 2185

Re: Comparing Total Returns of Top CD Offerings with an S&P

well if you look at rolling returns of 60/40 portfolio over 30 years periods and you look at real return, there are plenty of years where real return barely got 1%. I have a graph but it is on my desktop and I am not sure how to insert picture here without url... and that 1% real rolling returns ar...
by avalpert
Mon Nov 03, 2014 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing Total Returns of Top CD Offerings with an S&P 500
Replies: 38
Views: 2185

Re: Comparing Total Returns of Top CD Offerings with an S&P

the point is that nothing in the stock market is guaranteed Was that really a point that needed to be made? that point seems pretty trivial and obvious, but much too often people project their future networth/portfolio value based on average annual market returns, and they become shocked when they ...
by avalpert
Mon Nov 03, 2014 2:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing Total Returns of Top CD Offerings with an S&P 500
Replies: 38
Views: 2185

Re: Should I bite the bullet and sell my mining stocks?

You're very good at only quoting snippets from a post. Did you even see what I said in my original response and quoted for your benefit again? I quote snippets because I prefer keeping the discussion focused. Yeah, I saw what you said in your original post but it is a distraction from the conversat...
by avalpert
Mon Nov 03, 2014 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I bite the bullet and sell my mining stocks?
Replies: 23
Views: 2246

Re: Comparing Total Returns of Top CD Offerings with an S&P

My thoughts are that was a horrible example of cherry picking a time frame for their 'analysis' and cherry picking the CDs they happened into. At least they had the decency to acknowledge that a slight shift in timing would have made it difficult for them to match the returns they got on their midd...
by avalpert
Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing Total Returns of Top CD Offerings with an S&P 500
Replies: 38
Views: 2185

Re: Comparing Total Returns of Top CD Offerings with an S&P

My thoughts are that was a horrible example of cherry picking a time frame for their 'analysis' and cherry picking the CDs they happened into. At least they had the decency to acknowledge that a slight shift in timing would have made it difficult for them to match the returns they got on their middl...
by avalpert
Sun Nov 02, 2014 9:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing Total Returns of Top CD Offerings with an S&P 500
Replies: 38
Views: 2185

Re: Should I bite the bullet and sell my mining stocks?

:shock: one of these stocks is down 12% and the other is down 20%....since this was posted 2days ago! Sorry to the op...I hope you sold wed.! Yeah, its a great time to sell after a dramatic decline...Think about what you are saying. Stocks fluctuate and selling after a decline rarely works well unl...
by avalpert
Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I bite the bullet and sell my mining stocks?
Replies: 23
Views: 2246

Re: Possible to contribute after-tax to plan to get match?

This is one reason I don't front load my 401k contributions. You really are going to have to ask the employer, it is up to them on how they structure the matching policy and whether after-tax contributions would count.
by avalpert
Sun Nov 02, 2014 9:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Possible to contribute after-tax to plan to get match?
Replies: 9
Views: 942

Re: Should I bite the bullet and sell my mining stocks?

:shock: one of these stocks is down 12% and the other is down 20%....since this was posted 2days ago! Sorry to the op...I hope you sold wed.! Yeah, its a great time to sell after a dramatic decline...Think about what you are saying. Stocks fluctuate and selling after a decline rarely works well unl...
by avalpert
Fri Oct 31, 2014 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I bite the bullet and sell my mining stocks?
Replies: 23
Views: 2246

Re: Should I bite the bullet and sell my mining stocks?

grabiner wrote: The stock should be fairly priced now to reflect the possibility of a vote going up or down, so if you keep a large position in the stock while waiting for the vote, you are taking an extra risk with no benefit. David, Am I missing something here? How can a stock be "fairly pri...
by avalpert
Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I bite the bullet and sell my mining stocks?
Replies: 23
Views: 2246

Re: 1st time for money in taxable acccounts not retirement o

What dbr said...

What Uncle Pennybags said will not be very tax efficient.
by avalpert
Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 1st time for money in taxable acccounts not retirement ones
Replies: 8
Views: 609

Re: Is $700,000 enough to retire? Opinions please .

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
avalpert wrote: downsizing from their free and clear owned homes and renting condos instead.

If nothing else leave your hears free and clear real estate.

Personally, if my parents leave me anything I prefer it be cash to free and clear real estate
by avalpert
Fri Oct 31, 2014 1:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is $700,000 enough to retire? Opinions please .
Replies: 86
Views: 12500

Re: Life insurance outside work?

Yes you should get life insurance outside of any employer-provided coverage for the reason you suggested. Also, if you are paying for life insurance through your employer you can likely get it cheaper elsewhere.
by avalpert
Fri Oct 31, 2014 11:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life insurance outside work?
Replies: 11
Views: 648

Re: Is $700,000 enough to retire? Opinions please .

Also does the OP have a mortgage? If so, when will it be paid off? Owning a home free and clear is a must for a comfortable retirement. No, it isn't a must for a comfortable retirement and many retirees may be better off downsizing from their free and clear owned homes and renting condos instead.
by avalpert
Fri Oct 31, 2014 11:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is $700,000 enough to retire? Opinions please .
Replies: 86
Views: 12500

Re: Paul Merriman criticism?

If you don't base decisions on evidence what do you do? There is no other alternative that is logical This is why the term "evidence-based" is nonsensical. Yes this - it is nonsesical, as was an early comment in this thread contrasting 'evidence-based decisions' to 'opinions' as if they a...
by avalpert
Fri Oct 31, 2014 8:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman criticism?
Replies: 59
Views: 4524

Re: Getting more $ from employer by taking $$ive insurance

555 wrote:But what exactly is the argument against simply maximizing your "benefit" package from your employer?

That those extra benefits from the employer cost you more money - who cares if it also happens to cost your employer more?
by avalpert
Thu Oct 30, 2014 3:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting more $ from employer by taking $$ive insurance
Replies: 7
Views: 888

Re: Best approaches to accumulating in a down market

Yes thinking you can recognize when 'an asset class goes on sale for no reason' as opposed to declining in value for a reason is very different from market timing... I see the point you're trying to make. and yes I'd buy in both cases with the understanding that irrationality recovers more quickly ...
by avalpert
Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best approaches to accumulating in a down market
Replies: 23
Views: 1955

Re: Best approaches to accumulating in a down market

In my somewhat smart butt reply above I state that this isn't about timing which it is not. it is about recognizing and not ignoring when an asset class goes on sale for no reason. Yes thinking you can recognize when 'an asset class goes on sale for no reason' as opposed to declining in value for a...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best approaches to accumulating in a down market
Replies: 23
Views: 1955

Re: Best approaches to accumulating in a down market

The same way you do in an up market. Whatever approach you chose should stay steady regardless of what the last move of the market was.
by avalpert
Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best approaches to accumulating in a down market
Replies: 23
Views: 1955

Re: The "Timing Advantage"?

No concern for bogleheads at all as they don't rely on information in SEC filings to make investment decisions.
Is is a disadvantage for retail stock pickers, maybe but nowhere near the top of the list of disadvantages they have.
by avalpert
Wed Oct 29, 2014 3:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "Timing Advantage"?
Replies: 3
Views: 457

Re: Schwab expands no commission ETFs-no early sell fee

But Vanguard is in the TD Ameritrade program - so do they have those same sort of back compensation or are they the special exception? As far as we know, Vanguard does not play that game and it seems contrary to the way in which Vanguard is run. TD Ameritrade may have decided that it was still a go...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab expands no commission ETFs-no early sell fee
Replies: 42
Views: 3216

Re: How to save tax for 401k in changing your jobs

Roll it over to a traditional IRA or leave it in place and there are no taxes to pay.
by avalpert
Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to save tax for 401k in changing your jobs
Replies: 5
Views: 509

Re: Schwab expands no commission ETFs-no early sell fee

I am not saying these programs are a bad deal. They're not. I am saying that they're not free. The non-Schwab funds in the ETF supermarket program pay to be in the program. If there were no payola, then all ETFs would be in the program. Rick Ferri Yes, the non Schwab ETFs all really have much highe...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab expands no commission ETFs-no early sell fee
Replies: 42
Views: 3216

Re: Checking monthly - may not even notice the October "cras

Many Many years ago I owned Compaq. It cost me 10 K and at its peak was worth 510K and when I sold it it was 110K So did I gain 100K or was I 400K in the hole? According the IRS you gained 100K, from what you could have had you lost 400k - from an economic perspective you had 110k in value the rest...
by avalpert
Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Checking monthly - may not even notice the October "crash"
Replies: 51
Views: 4410

Re: Checking monthly - may not even notice the October "cras

I notice this crash, 7K lost in October, November so far breaking even, so of course one will notice the losses, this downward trend in market has been going on tail end of October into November, and so far we are far off from breaking even, about 65% of loses have been recovered but 35% S&P dr...
by avalpert
Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Checking monthly - may not even notice the October "crash"
Replies: 51
Views: 4410

Re: Schwab expands no commission ETFs-no early sell fee

With all due respect I do not understand why buy and hold index fund investors should care about Schwab or iShares ETF fees and spreads, sounds like a game for traders. I am comfortable with Vanguard mutual funds Admiral class, mostly index, makes investments much simpler. With all do respect, I do...
by avalpert
Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab expands no commission ETFs-no early sell fee
Replies: 42
Views: 3216

Re: who decides the stock price?

subham wrote:
nisiprius wrote:The stock market is a form of auction.


so basically there is half of them who want to sell at that price and half who want to buy at that price?

It just takes one person wanting to sell and one wanting to buy
by avalpert
Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: who decides the stock price?
Replies: 18
Views: 1549

Re: who decides the stock price?

Putting together what nispirius and Sidney said - the stock market is a continuous auction where buyers and sellers offer the price they are willing to act at, when those prices overlap you have a sale and that sets the new stock price (at least in the simplest way of describing it without getting i...
by avalpert
Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: who decides the stock price?
Replies: 18
Views: 1549

Re: Checking monthly - may not even notice the October "cras

Bogleheads say they ignore the noise, but many don't actually seem to. I think most 'bogleheads' (and others on this forum) say one should ignore the noise - but I bet most are quite aware that knowing they should do something and overcoming their human nature to do it are very different things. Th...
by avalpert
Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Checking monthly - may not even notice the October "crash"
Replies: 51
Views: 4410

Re: POLL: Gross Annual Retirement Income Before Taxes

Do you mean to be asking about 'income' or about spending?
by avalpert
Tue Oct 28, 2014 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Gross Annual Retirement Income Before Taxes
Replies: 25
Views: 2001

Re: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?

2) The whole basis of trade is that things do not have one intrinsic fundamental value that is the same for everybody . Trade occurs because I have some stuff that is worth more to you than it is to me. Why should it be different with stocks? (I ought to credit the Boglehead forum member who pointe...
by avalpert
Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?
Replies: 31
Views: 2156

Re: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)

I am saying treasuries,cd's,ibonds and GO highest rated Muni's are guaranteed safe money. High inflation would take away the safety of treasuries, cd''s and muni's without requiring chaos. A political default on Treasuries would cause many issues in the financial world but wouldn't neccesarily come...
by avalpert
Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:21 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)
Replies: 159
Views: 12939

Re: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?

Doesn't Vanguard just divide the S&P 500 in half by P/E and call the low P/E companies the S&P 500 Value Fund/ETF and the high P/E companies the S&P 500 Growth Fund/ETF? No, they don't do that at all. The S&P 500 has nothing to do with their core investor value/growth funds (they do...
by avalpert
Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?
Replies: 25
Views: 2130

Re: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)

Well I am not so pessimistic to say there is no such thing as safe money.I would think treasuries,ibonds,cd's,cash and I would throw in highest rated GO muni's as safe money.If you have to worry about inflation then you should work a few more years.Retiring early is a luxury as discussed here so yo...
by avalpert
Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)
Replies: 159
Views: 12939

Re: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)

Not to be a pessimist but I would caution anyone retiring early because they assume the stock market will give them 6,7 8 or maybe 10 pct over the next x amount of years.Yes it probably will over time but probably does not give me the confidence that I will not have to sell my home at age 75 becaus...
by avalpert
Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)
Replies: 159
Views: 12939

Re: If holding cash, do you want a Great Depression?

No you don't - the risks associated with having cash when every one around you is losing their jobs and wealth should be obvious enough.
by avalpert
Mon Oct 27, 2014 4:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If holding cash, do you want a Great Depression?
Replies: 50
Views: 4076

Re: Tilted to SV by mistake, should I TLH out of it?

I'd be more concerned that 1 month in you are already looking to abandon your initial plan that anything to do with SV in particular (though I am having trouble seeing how you got a 6-10% loss since September). If this bothers you now what are you going to do in the next big decline when stocks drop...
by avalpert
Mon Oct 27, 2014 4:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilted to SV by mistake, should I TLH out of it?
Replies: 37
Views: 1712

Re: Airline Ticket Price Differences

The short answer is yes they can sometimes offer lower fares than the airline itself though it is less frequent than it used to be. Nowadays most airlines will give you something if you do find a lower fare and claim it. Here is a decently up to date list of current policies: http://www.airfarewatch...
by avalpert
Mon Oct 27, 2014 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Airline Ticket Price Differences
Replies: 6
Views: 1048

Re: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?

Think of football rankings. Exactly what are they? does something exist that they measure? or is the ranking itself the creator of values? When a team goes up or down in the rankings based on wins or losses what does it mean? Are we refining our knowledge or are the teams changing. What is an "...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?
Replies: 31
Views: 2156

Re: Retiring without any additional investments for 25 years

Short answer I would give is yes you do need to continue to contribute if you want to target $120k in income in retirement. 8% as a real return is way too high an estimate and as a nominal return isn't particularly useful for forecasting how much you will be able to get in real income in 25 years. B...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring without any additional investments for 25 years
Replies: 20
Views: 2881

Re: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?

Think of football rankings. Exactly what are they? does something exist that they measure? or is the ranking itself the creator of values? When a team goes up or down in the rankings based on wins or losses what does it mean? Are we refining our knowledge or are the teams changing. What is an "...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?
Replies: 31
Views: 2156

Re: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?

As patrick said, whether a stock is value or growth is based on objective measures of value that anyone can validate - it isn't a black box selection committee or anything like that. the research has shown that some of these measures serve as reliable proxies for identifying 'value stocks' that have...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 26, 2014 6:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?
Replies: 25
Views: 2130

Re: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?

I think a stocks 'intrinsic value' is as real and useful as Plato's ideal forms. In the real world, the uncertainty around future cash flows of a business over anything meaningfully called 'long term' dwarf whatever believed 'mispricing' (whatever that really means, the price is what it is unless it...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 26, 2014 6:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?
Replies: 31
Views: 2156

Re: ITOT vs. VTI

I can't give you an exact number but I would say it is very likely the additional 8% of the market covered by VTI makes up somewhere between 1%-3% of the fund. Huh? It should make up about 8% of the fund on a market cap basis - since that is what the 'additional 8%' is a measure of. I don't think t...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 26, 2014 4:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ITOT vs. VTI [iShares Total US Stock ETF vs. Vanguard]
Replies: 14
Views: 974
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