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Re: 50/50

Check it against to what end? A 50/50 spit of Total Stock and Total Bond is a perfectly fine benchmark for a 50/50 portfolio - why would you need a separate fund? If you truly want to set and forget and never deal with rebalancing bands.... or irrational fear. it's why a lot of target date funds ar...
by avalpert
Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 50/50
Replies: 7
Views: 1039

Re: Is the backdoor Roth IRA legal?

JustinR wrote:I know that technically it is. But is it really?

There is no distinction between something being technically legal and really legal - all law is is a set of technical rules.

If you mean to ask is it ethical that is a different debate but probably not appropriate for this forum.
by avalpert
Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the backdoor Roth IRA legal?
Replies: 12
Views: 1367

Re: WSJ's Jon Clements: "How to Make Your Savings Outlive Yo

P.S. We spend our working lives intuitively adjusting our spending to our somewhat variable and unpredictable income. Nobody ever suggests running a Monte Carlo analysis of one's future earnings. Nobody ever suggests that your spending at age 25 should be governed by statistical projections of your...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ's Jon Clements: "How to Make Your Savings Outlive You"
Replies: 14
Views: 2590

Re: 50/50

Check it against to what end? A 50/50 spit of Total Stock and Total Bond is a perfectly fine benchmark for a 50/50 portfolio - why would you need a separate fund?
by avalpert
Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 50/50
Replies: 7
Views: 1039

Re: Why not 100% Stocks?

Problem is your house doesn't generate income Sure it does, just because you pay it to yourself doesn't change that. You could always rent it out and get a rental yourself. and can't be partially sold. Real estate isn't the only investment that is illiquid - if it weren't their 'home' but instead a...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 19, 2014 2:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% Stocks?
Replies: 271
Views: 19331

Re: Health care tilt

I absolutely see that argument and makes sense to me. On the other hand I believe investing in an area of inside knowledge can be smart also. Like if I worked at Goldman Sachs or something I would probably invest in the financial sector or maybe trade the index etc. I tend to follow the industry cl...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Health care tilt
Replies: 46
Views: 1947

Re: Health care tilt

This is a fair point. However, I do not hold the total stock fund in large amounts because of my preference for a slice and dice portfolio. I am simply making the argument that a separate health care fund is a valuable "slice" in that philosophy. I wish there was more research available o...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Health care tilt
Replies: 46
Views: 1947

Re: What's a good fund to do a backdoor Roth IRA with?

Why would you take yourself out of the market if you don't have to? Sow hat if it gains/loses that is why you are investing in the fund of your choice to begin with - worst case is it goes up a bit in the short period of time it takes to transfer and you pay a little bit of taxes on the gains.
by avalpert
Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's a good fund to do a backdoor Roth IRA with?
Replies: 5
Views: 499

Re: Why not 100% Stocks?

the term "100% stocks" is a simplification that describes only the allocation of one's investment portfolio, and when a person says she is 100% stocks, she shouldn't need to defend herself against the definition police. People can say whatever they want and don't have to defend themselves...
by avalpert
Sat Oct 18, 2014 11:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% Stocks?
Replies: 271
Views: 19331

Re: Can I reduce my *retirement* savings rate?

So I'll give you my honest feedback after reading this thread and I'm not trying to be negative here. I have a similar issue. -I think you are over-analyzing your future retirement. The fact that you mull over it daily and are pouring through calculations and spreadsheets, this can become unhealthy...
by avalpert
Fri Oct 17, 2014 1:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I reduce my *retirement* savings rate?
Replies: 34
Views: 2804

Re: When bogleheads do TLH

Rather than a percentage, my threshold is absolute in dollars. I use $3000 of loss to trigger a TLH -- (1) because that is how much you can deduct on your taxes in one year (2) makes it easy to see when to do TLH. I recently did one with the TISM fund when it crossed $3000 mark. I'm not sure that m...
by avalpert
Fri Oct 17, 2014 1:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When bogleheads do TLH
Replies: 6
Views: 831

Re: Can I reduce my *retirement* savings rate?

I think you are overcomplicating this question - you certainly aren't the first family to try to decide if you should be a single-income or dual-income household. Really it boils down to can you live on your salary alone and still be able to save enough for full retirement saving 20% of gross income...
by avalpert
Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I reduce my *retirement* savings rate?
Replies: 34
Views: 2804

Re: Tax gain harvest smaller gains from taxable to fund 529s

I wouldn't, don't really see an advantage to paying taxes now that can be deferred for later and you can put new money into a 529 over time instead of increasing your taxable portfolio.
by avalpert
Thu Oct 16, 2014 10:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax gain harvest from taxable to fund 529s / Roth IRAs?
Replies: 3
Views: 317

Re: How did you get from $1M to $10M

I would try roulette, baccarat or craps
by avalpert
Thu Oct 16, 2014 4:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How did you get from $1M to $10M
Replies: 46
Views: 3968

Re: Balance Transfer Credit Card 1% fee, no APR for 1 year

If you miss even one of their requirements, you'll lose big doing this. They have dozens of people thinking about how to get your wealth transferred to them. You are one person trying to think of the reverse. It is a fool's game in the long run. I don't think this is necessarily fair - they have do...
by avalpert
Thu Oct 16, 2014 4:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Balance Transfer Credit Card 1% fee, no APR for 1 year
Replies: 9
Views: 339

Re: Balance Transfer Credit Card 1% fee, no APR for 1 year

Currency risk isn't enough for you? For ~$150 in gains its hard to justify the effort and risk.
by avalpert
Thu Oct 16, 2014 3:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Balance Transfer Credit Card 1% fee, no APR for 1 year
Replies: 9
Views: 339

Re: Find a way to explain to me "WHY" should I break up w/ M

I have been unsuccessful in cutting and pasting the Morningstar Chart to this page. At Morningstar please chart VTWSX vs MDISX Chart at Morningstar from 15SEP1994 until present. If anyone could post this Chart for me I would be grateful because a picture is worth thousands of words! This CHART best...
by avalpert
Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Find a way to explain to me "WHY" should I break up w/ MDISX
Replies: 23
Views: 1097

Re: investing in bear market

Agreed - to the Oracle you listen: “Whether socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.” I just read a comment from an interview he did last week where he compared it to going to the supermarket and buying hamburger when it is on sale. That folks need to think of inve...
by avalpert
Thu Oct 16, 2014 11:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: investing in bear market
Replies: 29
Views: 2233

Re: $72k in 3 fund or a $72k 2 bed/1 bath condo rented

BogleBoogie wrote:
avalpert wrote:OP - what does the rest of your portfolio look like? Is it invested in as 3 funds with a 65/25 mix? What are you hoping to accomplish with this relatively small slice of your portfolio?


More importantly, where is the remaining 10% from the "65/25" mix??

That's my commission
by avalpert
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $72k in 3 fund or a $72k 2 bed/1 bath condo rented
Replies: 21
Views: 1466

Re: $72k in 3 fund or a $72k 2 bed/1 bath condo rented

OP - what does the rest of your portfolio look like? Is it invested in as 3 funds with a 65/35 mix? What are you hoping to accomplish with this relatively small slice of your portfolio?
by avalpert
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $72k in 3 fund or a $72k 2 bed/1 bath condo rented
Replies: 21
Views: 1466

Re: $72k in 3 fund or a $72k 2 bed/1 bath condo rented

The stock market is overpriced now (that's why it's falling) while real estate is still underpriced. Since you're committing a sum of money all at once you can't dollar cost average, so timing does indeed matter. I would buy the condo. Was the stock market underpriced on Monday and that was why it ...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $72k in 3 fund or a $72k 2 bed/1 bath condo rented
Replies: 21
Views: 1466

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Since MOST of the shares of stock in the world are not bought or sold on any given day, that means that MOST share owners also feel that their stocks are worth more to them than the market is currently offering. It also means that MOST non share owners don't feel the stock is worth what those share...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 941
Views: 156342

Re: Find a way to explain to me "WHY" should I break up w/ M

I'm not going to tell you what you should do nor going to dig too much into MDISX's history to do a proper analysis - but just a quick look tells me that since changing managers in late '09 it has slightly trailed a 50/50 blend of the VFINX and VEA (a large cap US and large cap International fund) w...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 15, 2014 6:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Find a way to explain to me "WHY" should I break up w/ MDISX
Replies: 23
Views: 1097

Re: The SWR on Real Estate Investments

Is market efficiency necessary for the study to be valid? Shouldn't the impact of the market inefficiencies show up in the data used by the study? Reliable data availability may be a big challenge. The issue is if you are particularly skillful at buying and managing real estate, you can add real va...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 15, 2014 3:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 60
Views: 2218

Re: The SWR on Real Estate Investments

Putting all of your money in a single company stock is speculating. Is putting all your money in a single property not speculating? You ever buy a house? Especially your first one? I did, and as an investment it was absolutely speculation. So anyone and everyone who buys a house that they plan on l...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 15, 2014 3:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 60
Views: 2218

Re: The SWR on Real Estate Investments

So, if you can't take 6% because of that risk, how much can you take? Is it 4% like a stock/bond portfolio, or somewhere in between the net operating income and the 4% rule? To figure that I think you would need to look at actual experienced volatilities in real estate returns - basically do the tr...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 60
Views: 2218

Re: The SWR on Real Estate Investments

Putting all of your money in a single company stock is speculating. Is putting all your money in a single property not speculating? You ever buy a house? Especially your first one? I did, and as an investment it was absolutely speculation. Buying any property CAN be speculation. If you are investin...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 60
Views: 2218

Re: The SWR on Real Estate Investments

Putting all of your money in a single company stock is speculating. Is putting all your money in a single property not speculating? Public stock markets are not the end all be all for investment options. That is certainly true - they just happen to be one of the most accessible ways to get broad di...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 60
Views: 2218

Re: The SWR on Real Estate Investments

So, if you can't take 6% because of that risk, how much can you take? Is it 4% like a stock/bond portfolio, or somewhere in between the net operating income and the 4% rule? To figure that I think you would need to look at actual experienced volatilities in real estate returns - basically do the tr...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 60
Views: 2218

Re: The SWR on Real Estate Investments

Here is a real data point for discussion... Property purchased in 1997 for approximately $150k. Financed with 15-year at 8% - $17.2k annual payment. Other first year expenses : maintenance/repair - $5k, taxes - $3k, insurance - $2k Gross 1st year rent (ballpark guess) - $28k First year profit - ess...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 60
Views: 2218

Re: What is common for a severance package?

I think the range of what is common is wide enough that you really can't do meaningful planning (besides assuming zero new cash flow) on what the particular situation may be for your wife until it happens.
by avalpert
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is common for a severance package?
Replies: 25
Views: 1793

Re: The SWR on Real Estate Investments

But at any rate, if you can only get 4% out of your stock/bond funds, and you can get 6% out of a rental property, it seems a rather large advantage to have some real estate in the portfolio to me. Wait a second, I can get 4% out of stocks/bonds based on simulations using past data - and you can ge...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The SWR on Real Estate Investments
Replies: 60
Views: 2218

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

People say that the market is unpredictable in the short run but more predictable in the long run. Who are these people? Many claim that though short term market fluctuations are fairly random, over the long run you should make money in the stock market , and the stock market will outperform nearly...
by avalpert
Tue Oct 14, 2014 3:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3043

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

protagonist wrote:People say that the market is unpredictable in the short run but more predictable in the long run.

Who are these people?
by avalpert
Tue Oct 14, 2014 3:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3043

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

Because the economy grows, technology advances and companies get more productive - this explains why they have and why we expect them to continue to but it doesn't guarantee that the march of human history will continue.
by avalpert
Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 3043

Re: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?

I don't consider the tilts to be a free lunch. They are called 'risk factors,' are they not? There is risk, which means the possibility of underperforming, even over long time horizons. But if these tilts are, as they're often described by their proponents, largely uncorrelated risk factors with si...
by avalpert
Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?
Replies: 44
Views: 3027

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Really? You don't know any rational person that could have experienced a change in business conditions that make their business worth less than six months earlier and make the price at which they would sell less? If that is truly the case than I suspect you don't know any rational people. What chan...
by avalpert
Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 941
Views: 156342

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I lost $10,000 in the last 3 weeks! I am trying to just stay the course!! :shock: Down $35k. Been contributing 100% of my income contributions to equities to stay balanced. During the bull run I was contributing 100% to bonds to stay balanced. Seems to me the system is working as intended. Try to r...
by avalpert
Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 941
Views: 156342

Re: Dry Powder, When to Start Value Averaging In?

What do you mean when you say 'value averaging' - because if you were actually value averaging there wouldn't be any need to ask the question. Not sure I'm following you but, I have a newly acquired lump sum that needs to be invested. I could a) dump the lump sum in in one fell swoop, b) start valu...
by avalpert
Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dry Powder, When to Start Value Averaging In?
Replies: 23
Views: 2195

Re: Why not 100% Stocks?

I have disability insurance for a situation where I can no longer perform my job. Is disability insurance going to be a cost effective option in your 70s? (I honestly don't know but my guess is that as the likelihood of you needing it the most increases the benefits of having self insured increase ...
by avalpert
Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% Stocks?
Replies: 271
Views: 19331

Re: Why not 100% Stocks?

Yesterdaysnews wrote:What if one plans to never retire?

Those plans are not always in your control - unless you plan to commit suicide if you are ever physically no longer able to perform or no one will keep you employed.
by avalpert
Mon Oct 13, 2014 11:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% Stocks?
Replies: 271
Views: 19331

Re: Is semi-retirement a bad idea?

For two of my three sabbaticals (my first and my upcoming one) my firm gave me formal leave of absences with a job waiting (in theory at least, still an employee at will so they could have of course reneged if they had to). For my second, it was time for me to be leaving anyway so I negotiated a vo...
by avalpert
Mon Oct 13, 2014 11:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is semi-retirement a bad idea?
Replies: 106
Views: 7068

Re: Dry Powder, When to Start Value Averaging In?

What do you mean when you say 'value averaging' - because if you were actually value averaging there wouldn't be any need to ask the question. Not sure I'm following you but, I have a newly acquired lump sum that needs to be invested. I could a) dump the lump sum in in one fell swoop, b) start valu...
by avalpert
Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dry Powder, When to Start Value Averaging In?
Replies: 23
Views: 2195

Re: Do you rebalance now?

Yes, what goes down must come up. This of course is completely untrue - not only could an object go fast enough to break from the gravitational pull of the earth but non-material concepts aren't constrained by this notion at all, take for example some people's weight which goes up and up and need n...
by avalpert
Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you rebalance now?
Replies: 17
Views: 1462

Re: Why not 100% Stocks?

No reason not to be in 100% stocks if you have a long time horizon. Best of luck. I'm sorry but this needs to be reiterated - yes there are reasons not to be 100% stocks even if you have a long time horizon. You can choose to dismiss those reasons or conclude they don't apply to you but to pretend ...
by avalpert
Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% Stocks?
Replies: 271
Views: 19331

Re: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)

I think he is being silly - or at least pedantic. Yes, of course people can and will adjust if reality throws a curveball but people prefer their spending to not be as volatile as the equity markets make their assets so having general guidance that has been tested that they can use to maintain a mor...
by avalpert
Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe on the 4% SWR rule (he thinks it's silly)
Replies: 51
Views: 4587

Re: Do you rebalance now?

The research is inconclusive - surprise, surprise. Doing it annually is fine and not worth worrying over.
by avalpert
Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you rebalance now?
Replies: 17
Views: 1462

Re: Dry Powder, When to Start Value Averaging In?

What do you mean when you say 'value averaging' - because if you were actually value averaging there wouldn't be any need to ask the question.
by avalpert
Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dry Powder, When to Start Value Averaging In?
Replies: 23
Views: 2195

Re: Why not 100% Stocks?

I'll still be holding enough in cash to account for 10 years of expenses AND I still own a business that I will likely sell in 5-10 years In other words you won't be 100% in stocks. Why not phrase the question than - if I have 10 times my annual spending in cash why shouldn't the rest of my portfol...
by avalpert
Mon Oct 13, 2014 6:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% Stocks?
Replies: 271
Views: 19331

Re: Is semi-retirement a bad idea?

I think it's somewhat ironic how the bigger the nest egg can lead to being more conservative financially. At least that seems like a trend on here and also my personal experience -- I'd quit jobs and move wherever in my 20's with no job and only a couple grand to my name. If it doesn't work out the...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 12, 2014 10:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is semi-retirement a bad idea?
Replies: 106
Views: 7068
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