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Re: Best approaches to accumulating in a down market

In my somewhat smart butt reply above I state that this isn't about timing which it is not. it is about recognizing and not ignoring when an asset class goes on sale for no reason. Yes thinking you can recognize when 'an asset class goes on sale for no reason' as opposed to declining in value for a...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best approaches to accumulating in a down market
Replies: 20
Views: 1468

Re: Best approaches to accumulating in a down market

The same way you do in an up market. Whatever approach you chose should stay steady regardless of what the last move of the market was.
by avalpert
Wed Oct 29, 2014 9:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best approaches to accumulating in a down market
Replies: 20
Views: 1468

Re: The "Timing Advantage"?

No concern for bogleheads at all as they don't rely on information in SEC filings to make investment decisions.
Is is a disadvantage for retail stock pickers, maybe but nowhere near the top of the list of disadvantages they have.
by avalpert
Wed Oct 29, 2014 4:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "Timing Advantage"?
Replies: 3
Views: 320

Re: Schwab expands no commission ETFs-no early sell fee

But Vanguard is in the TD Ameritrade program - so do they have those same sort of back compensation or are they the special exception? As far as we know, Vanguard does not play that game and it seems contrary to the way in which Vanguard is run. TD Ameritrade may have decided that it was still a go...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab expands no commission ETFs-no early sell fee
Replies: 29
Views: 2016

Re: How to save tax for 401k in changing your jobs

Roll it over to a traditional IRA or leave it in place and there are no taxes to pay.
by avalpert
Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to save tax for 401k in changing your jobs
Replies: 3
Views: 335

Re: Schwab expands no commission ETFs-no early sell fee

I am not saying these programs are a bad deal. They're not. I am saying that they're not free. The non-Schwab funds in the ETF supermarket program pay to be in the program. If there were no payola, then all ETFs would be in the program. Rick Ferri Yes, the non Schwab ETFs all really have much highe...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab expands no commission ETFs-no early sell fee
Replies: 29
Views: 2016

Re: Checking monthly - may not even notice the October "cras

Many Many years ago I owned Compaq. It cost me 10 K and at its peak was worth 510K and when I sold it it was 110K So did I gain 100K or was I 400K in the hole? According the IRS you gained 100K, from what you could have had you lost 400k - from an economic perspective you had 110k in value the rest...
by avalpert
Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Checking monthly - may not even notice the October "crash"
Replies: 41
Views: 2673

Re: Checking monthly - may not even notice the October "cras

I notice this crash, 7K lost in October, November so far breaking even, so of course one will notice the losses, this downward trend in market has been going on tail end of October into November, and so far we are far off from breaking even, about 65% of loses have been recovered but 35% S&P dr...
by avalpert
Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Checking monthly - may not even notice the October "crash"
Replies: 41
Views: 2673

Re: Schwab expands no commission ETFs-no early sell fee

With all due respect I do not understand why buy and hold index fund investors should care about Schwab or iShares ETF fees and spreads, sounds like a game for traders. I am comfortable with Vanguard mutual funds Admiral class, mostly index, makes investments much simpler. With all do respect, I do...
by avalpert
Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab expands no commission ETFs-no early sell fee
Replies: 29
Views: 2016

Re: who decides the stock price?

subham wrote:
nisiprius wrote:The stock market is a form of auction.


so basically there is half of them who want to sell at that price and half who want to buy at that price?

It just takes one person wanting to sell and one wanting to buy
by avalpert
Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: who decides the stock price?
Replies: 17
Views: 1283

Re: who decides the stock price?

Putting together what nispirius and Sidney said - the stock market is a continuous auction where buyers and sellers offer the price they are willing to act at, when those prices overlap you have a sale and that sets the new stock price (at least in the simplest way of describing it without getting i...
by avalpert
Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: who decides the stock price?
Replies: 17
Views: 1283

Re: Checking monthly - may not even notice the October "cras

Bogleheads say they ignore the noise, but many don't actually seem to. I think most 'bogleheads' (and others on this forum) say one should ignore the noise - but I bet most are quite aware that knowing they should do something and overcoming their human nature to do it are very different things. Th...
by avalpert
Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Checking monthly - may not even notice the October "crash"
Replies: 41
Views: 2673

Re: POLL: Gross Annual Retirement Income Before Taxes

Do you mean to be asking about 'income' or about spending?
by avalpert
Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: Gross Annual Retirement Income Before Taxes
Replies: 25
Views: 1890

Re: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?

2) The whole basis of trade is that things do not have one intrinsic fundamental value that is the same for everybody . Trade occurs because I have some stuff that is worth more to you than it is to me. Why should it be different with stocks? (I ought to credit the Boglehead forum member who pointe...
by avalpert
Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1908

Re: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)

I am saying treasuries,cd's,ibonds and GO highest rated Muni's are guaranteed safe money. High inflation would take away the safety of treasuries, cd''s and muni's without requiring chaos. A political default on Treasuries would cause many issues in the financial world but wouldn't neccesarily come...
by avalpert
Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:21 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)
Replies: 159
Views: 12401

Re: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?

Doesn't Vanguard just divide the S&P 500 in half by P/E and call the low P/E companies the S&P 500 Value Fund/ETF and the high P/E companies the S&P 500 Growth Fund/ETF? No, they don't do that at all. The S&P 500 has nothing to do with their core investor value/growth funds (they do...
by avalpert
Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?
Replies: 25
Views: 1978

Re: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)

Well I am not so pessimistic to say there is no such thing as safe money.I would think treasuries,ibonds,cd's,cash and I would throw in highest rated GO muni's as safe money.If you have to worry about inflation then you should work a few more years.Retiring early is a luxury as discussed here so yo...
by avalpert
Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)
Replies: 159
Views: 12401

Re: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)

Not to be a pessimist but I would caution anyone retiring early because they assume the stock market will give them 6,7 8 or maybe 10 pct over the next x amount of years.Yes it probably will over time but probably does not give me the confidence that I will not have to sell my home at age 75 becaus...
by avalpert
Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)
Replies: 159
Views: 12401

Re: If holding cash, do you want a Great Depression?

No you don't - the risks associated with having cash when every one around you is losing their jobs and wealth should be obvious enough.
by avalpert
Mon Oct 27, 2014 5:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If holding cash, do you want a Great Depression?
Replies: 50
Views: 3793

Re: Tilted to SV by mistake, should I TLH out of it?

I'd be more concerned that 1 month in you are already looking to abandon your initial plan that anything to do with SV in particular (though I am having trouble seeing how you got a 6-10% loss since September). If this bothers you now what are you going to do in the next big decline when stocks drop...
by avalpert
Mon Oct 27, 2014 5:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilted to SV by mistake, should I TLH out of it?
Replies: 37
Views: 1652

Re: Airline Ticket Price Differences

The short answer is yes they can sometimes offer lower fares than the airline itself though it is less frequent than it used to be. Nowadays most airlines will give you something if you do find a lower fare and claim it. Here is a decently up to date list of current policies: http://www.airfarewatch...
by avalpert
Mon Oct 27, 2014 4:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Airline Ticket Price Differences
Replies: 6
Views: 1007

Re: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?

Think of football rankings. Exactly what are they? does something exist that they measure? or is the ranking itself the creator of values? When a team goes up or down in the rankings based on wins or losses what does it mean? Are we refining our knowledge or are the teams changing. What is an "...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 26, 2014 8:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1908

Re: Retiring without any additional investments for 25 years

Short answer I would give is yes you do need to continue to contribute if you want to target $120k in income in retirement. 8% as a real return is way too high an estimate and as a nominal return isn't particularly useful for forecasting how much you will be able to get in real income in 25 years. B...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 26, 2014 8:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring without any additional investments for 25 years
Replies: 20
Views: 2803

Re: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?

Think of football rankings. Exactly what are they? does something exist that they measure? or is the ranking itself the creator of values? When a team goes up or down in the rankings based on wins or losses what does it mean? Are we refining our knowledge or are the teams changing. What is an "...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 26, 2014 8:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1908

Re: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?

As patrick said, whether a stock is value or growth is based on objective measures of value that anyone can validate - it isn't a black box selection committee or anything like that. the research has shown that some of these measures serve as reliable proxies for identifying 'value stocks' that have...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?
Replies: 25
Views: 1978

Re: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?

I think a stocks 'intrinsic value' is as real and useful as Plato's ideal forms. In the real world, the uncertainty around future cash flows of a business over anything meaningfully called 'long term' dwarf whatever believed 'mispricing' (whatever that really means, the price is what it is unless it...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1908

Re: ITOT vs. VTI

I can't give you an exact number but I would say it is very likely the additional 8% of the market covered by VTI makes up somewhere between 1%-3% of the fund. Huh? It should make up about 8% of the fund on a market cap basis - since that is what the 'additional 8%' is a measure of. I don't think t...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 26, 2014 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ITOT vs. VTI [iShares Total US Stock ETF vs. Vanguard]
Replies: 14
Views: 849

Re: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)

Not everyone dreams of retiring early. Excellent point. I guess the abnormal is the goal to retiring early to enjoy the fruits of their labor. The norm. for many is the sense of accomplishment and meaning in the work they do despite what it means to their bottom line. Good insight. Good luck. I'm n...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 26, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)
Replies: 159
Views: 12401

Re: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket

lapuce wrote:
Rysto wrote:
lapuce wrote:You cannot [h]edge your spouse by marrying four of them

Well, you can try, but somehow that only elevates your risk level.


Haha!

I once spent a night with a Bedouin in Wadi Rum who had 4 wives - two in Amman, one in Cairo, and one in Irbid - he preferred staying in the desert.
by avalpert
Sun Oct 26, 2014 4:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket
Replies: 233
Views: 26119

Re: ITOT vs. VTI

I can't give you an exact number but I would say it is very likely the additional 8% of the market covered by VTI makes up somewhere between 1%-3% of the fund. Huh? It should make up about 8% of the fund on a market cap basis - since that is what the 'additional 8%' is a measure of. I don't think t...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 26, 2014 4:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ITOT vs. VTI [iShares Total US Stock ETF vs. Vanguard]
Replies: 14
Views: 849

Re: ITOT vs. VTI

I would expect a "total market" fund to own thousands of stocks, not just 1500. ITOT covers about 90% of the US market; VTI covers about 98%. I differ there because my understanding is all index funds try to emulate not replicate their index and I really don't believe there is a differenc...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 26, 2014 3:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ITOT vs. VTI [iShares Total US Stock ETF vs. Vanguard]
Replies: 14
Views: 849

Re: Ham and Egger's Theory? [Buy Whatever Cap Size is laggin

Historically, small/mids/larges revert to track the market with time, correct (+/- 1% or so)? No, this is not correct - that is why multifactor models explain returns better than a single factor model. Different arbitrary market cap sections do no revert to some sort of global mean. In my simple as...
by avalpert
Sun Oct 26, 2014 2:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ham and Egger's Theory? [Buy Whatever Cap Size is lagging) ]
Replies: 38
Views: 3045

Re: Ham and Egger's Theory? [Buy Whatever Cap Size is laggin

HAMnEGGr wrote:Historically, small/mids/larges revert to track the market with time, correct (+/- 1% or so)?

No, this is not correct - that is why multifactor models explain returns better than a single factor model. Different arbitrary market cap sections do no revert to some sort of global mean.
by avalpert
Sat Oct 25, 2014 11:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ham and Egger's Theory? [Buy Whatever Cap Size is lagging) ]
Replies: 38
Views: 3045

Re: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)

I don't mean to steal the thread, but just wondering for those who are in the "I can spend >120k per year with <3% withdrawal" or better why did you not retire earlier? It would seem the chances of running out of money happened A LOT earlier then the chances of dying before hitting the &q...
by avalpert
Sat Oct 25, 2014 7:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)
Replies: 159
Views: 12401

Re: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket

It could be said that many small-business owners are putting all their eggs in one basket too. Since many small business owners fail, it's likely that these would have turned out to be bad baskets. Is there a difference between putting most of your wealth in your own business, and putting most of y...
by avalpert
Fri Oct 24, 2014 6:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket
Replies: 233
Views: 26119

Re: Feasibility of just-in-time health insurance for expats

Aren't you covered by your wife's health insurance through her employer - does it not cover treatment in the US?
by avalpert
Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feasibility of just-in-time health insurance for expats
Replies: 7
Views: 444

Re: Renting vs owning

tj wrote:Why not buy a townhouse? I mean, if it's financially beneficial

Without knowing the current price and rent of the townhouse in question how on earth can you know that? It could be financially detrimental just as easily as it can be beneficial.
by avalpert
Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Renting vs owning
Replies: 16
Views: 1670

Re: Gift ideas for kids?

Cardboard boxes in wrapping paper for the kids and cash for the parents to spend on them - it gives the kids something they will play with and enjoy for as long as nearly any toy you buy and the parents something useful to put towards the kids actual needs all at the same cost to you.
by avalpert
Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gift ideas for [1yo boy and 4yo girl]?
Replies: 9
Views: 578

Re: Close roth for tax deduction and open new one in same yr

Can I close the accounts, request a payout, and then turn around and open a new roth for each of us a few days later and still be able to deduct the losses? No, to deduct Roth losses on schedule A you need to have closed all your Roth accounts and calculate the loss based on all contributions to th...
by avalpert
Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Close roth for tax deduction and open new one in same yr?
Replies: 11
Views: 788

Re: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)

How are people coming up with these numbers? 90K? 120k? Even $180k??? They are estimating how much they plan to spend in retirement probably based on what their current standard of living is plus some lifestyle adjustments - it isn't rocket science. What kinds of savings rate does one need to take ...
by avalpert
Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)
Replies: 159
Views: 12401

Re: Investment Vehicle for MBA Savings?

While you could use a 529 plan to save for this, the advantage of tax free growth over just a couple of years for such a small amount of money is pretty small. What I would really target if I were you, since you are planning to go part time (and presumably work part time) is to get your expenses dow...
by avalpert
Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Vehicle for MBA Savings?
Replies: 4
Views: 245

Re: Would you consider this a conservative portfolio?

No, definitely not conservative - a low quality bond international bond fund is not a conservative investment. It also isn't a particularly good mix for the level of risk it is taking on.
by avalpert
Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you consider this a conservative portfolio?
Replies: 6
Views: 476

Re: More funds = more "efficient" rebalancing?

Rebalancing to what? What is it you are considering balanced?
by avalpert
Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More funds = more "efficient" rebalancing?
Replies: 28
Views: 1658

Re: Why include International Index in AA?

StarbuxInvestor wrote:
Periods of underperform in solid ecomonies means buying shares cheaper then profiting from overperformance.

So I take it you have been over-weighting International for some time now then?
by avalpert
Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why include International Index in AA?
Replies: 39
Views: 2767

Re: Why include International Index in AA?

I would say international matters quite a lot, as Nis knows ;) Maybe not in terms of volatility, but in other ways certainly. I didn't cherry-pick the below - I just went back 5 years, then went back 5 years ago, to the day. The past 5 years (return on 10K invested): 96% vs. 22% http://i.imgur.com/...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why include International Index in AA?
Replies: 39
Views: 2767

Re: Anchoring vs. Buy-and-Hold

In my 401K account, I have 100K in Russell 2000 Index Fund and nothing in SP500 Index Fund. I'm thinking that I should transfer 50K from R2000 to SP500. Should I do it in one transaction, or transfer $2,000/month over the next three years, or use some other threshold? Thanks. You already own all th...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anchoring vs. Buy-and-Hold
Replies: 15
Views: 1449

Re: Anchoring vs. Buy-and-Hold

In my 401K account, I have 100K in Russell 2000 Index Fund and nothing in SP500 Index Fund. I'm thinking that I should transfer 50K from R2000 to SP500. Should I do it in one transaction, or transfer $2,000/month over the next three years, or use some other threshold? Thanks. Why are you making the...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 22, 2014 4:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anchoring vs. Buy-and-Hold
Replies: 15
Views: 1449

Re: Creating a 401k for my company through Employee Fiduciar

FWIW, we would recommend clients charge a $25 quarterly account administrative fee to incentivize terminated employees to leave. In what way is an unnecessary $25 fee looking out for a plan participant's best interest. I am certainly no expert, but from what I understand, it is a business decision ...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 22, 2014 3:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Creating a 401k for my company through Employee Fiduciary
Replies: 85
Views: 3367

Re: Anchoring vs. Buy-and-Hold

Anchoring can apply to any investment - including broad index funds. Anything that you bought at a price or has a price assigned to it can be the target of unhelpful anchoring. And it could apply to buy and hold investors as well in certain contexts - say for example they hit their rebalancing bands...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anchoring vs. Buy-and-Hold
Replies: 15
Views: 1449

Re: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)

Wow, so many people are such spenders. I think 40k after taxes is plenty to do all those things you listed with no debt for us. Try that when real estate property taxes cost $15K per year for an "average" home. Or rent for a 1 bedroom efficiency apartment is $1,400 but a parking space cos...
by avalpert
Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gross Yearly Income needed in Retirement (Speculation)
Replies: 159
Views: 12401
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