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Re: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?

I expect fear and greed are much the same as in the 1800s, which would argue that market data from that era is as relevant today as data from any other era. Strictly from the point of view of global or US market and economic structure, you could just as well question the relevance of stock market da...
by asset_chaos
Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?
Replies: 54
Views: 2305

Re: Bonds - Are they essential in a new portfolio?

I'll stick with my previous answer (in this thread http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=106727 ) to a similar question: "I suggest to put some bonds into the mix. At some point in life everyone will need a significant allocation to bonds. I suggest that it's a good idea to ha...
by asset_chaos
Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds - Are they essential in a new portfolio?
Replies: 7
Views: 1023

Re: M* caution on emerging markets dividend ETFs

What to make of this? The story and headline are just a little too breathless to pass my sniff test for good journalism. How much of the critique amounts to, if you don't cap-weight, you don't get cap-weighting results? That's just a trueism, and doesn't even seem like the usual, more cogent, critis...
by asset_chaos
Sun Apr 20, 2014 8:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M* caution on emerging markets dividend ETFs
Replies: 15
Views: 1203

Re: Does Larry Swedroe have a Podcast?

If you google "Larry Swedroe Podcast", several come up on the first page.
by asset_chaos
Thu Apr 17, 2014 10:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does Larry Swedroe have a Podcast?
Replies: 2
Views: 403

Re: global bond index funds

If you disagree, I am eagerly awaiting your explanation why it makes sense that the yield on Greek bonds is similar to that of Australia :) Nominal rates may be similar, but Australia has modest inflation while Greece has noticable deflation. So real rates are higher for Greece. By coincidence the ...
by asset_chaos
Thu Apr 17, 2014 10:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: global bond index funds
Replies: 2
Views: 429

Vanguard's Updated Case for Index Investing

Vanguard has updated their white paper The Case for Index Investing with data through 2013 https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/institutional/researchcommentary/article/InvResCaseIndex2014 . Unsurprisingly---especially to this audience---the data continues to unequivocally support index...
by asset_chaos
Wed Apr 16, 2014 11:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Updated Case for Index Investing
Replies: 0
Views: 429

Re: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get

Not to be excessively depressing but I think another crash is nearly inevitable since the issues from the last two were never really fixed or allowed to work themselves out, just papered over with additional stimulus. It could possibly be still headed off if the powers that be took bold action but ...
by asset_chaos
Tue Apr 15, 2014 5:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get
Replies: 72
Views: 5371

Stocks: How Bad It Can Get

Chart in the Economist http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2014/04/daily-chart-7 of the peak to trough decline in the American and British stock markets (local currency) during select financial crises. A graphic reminder that the stock market can fall pretty far. Also a reminder that the 20...
by asset_chaos
Tue Apr 15, 2014 12:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get
Replies: 72
Views: 5371

Re: gold , silver, copper and uranium only

In a bit of synchronisity this article http://www.etf.com/sections/news/21794-market-intel-the-most-richly-valued-etfs.html has a graph of the most richly valued ETFs. The top 3 most most overvalued, all currently with negative aggregate earnings are silver, gold and uranium. (These ETFs track miner...
by asset_chaos
Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: gold , silver, copper and uranium only
Replies: 46
Views: 2243

Re: What % of stock market "drive" is gambling?

There might be a quantitative answer for the commodity futures market. What is the fraction of the total futures outstanding belonging to people who do take deliver of the commodity (e.g. Hershey with cocoa futures) versus everyone that always settles for cash? It may be an area where it can be dete...
by asset_chaos
Sun Apr 13, 2014 8:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of stock market "drive" is gambling?
Replies: 36
Views: 3471

Re: Two separate US and ex-US index funds vs one global DM f

Search the forum for the phrase 'rebalancing bonus' for discussions on the possible boost to returns from rebalancing. It's possiblee that rebalancing could produce more than the 35 bp of cost drag. But with the correlation between developed markets usually being high, I consider it very unlikely. I...
by asset_chaos
Sun Apr 13, 2014 6:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two separate US and ex-US index funds vs one global DM fund
Replies: 6
Views: 516

Re: Scientists Trying to Create Human Heart With 3D Printer

Scientists and engineers are trying to create lots of things with 3d printing, organs included. I would not get overly excited about the prospects for printing viable organs any time soon.
by asset_chaos
Sun Apr 13, 2014 6:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scientists Trying to Create Human Heart With 3D Printer
Replies: 4
Views: 529

Re: gold , silver and copper

BHP Billiton continues to postpone investing in the expansion of Olympic Dam, one of the largest copper-gold-uranium-silver complexes ever found. They say publically in disclosures to the stock exchange that it's because they have a pessimistic view of metal prices in the near to medium (10 year) te...
by asset_chaos
Fri Apr 11, 2014 10:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: gold , silver, copper and uranium only
Replies: 46
Views: 2243

Re: A Bubble in Value Stocks?

With all the talk about value investing around these parts, it can feel like everyone and their dog and their cat is now a value investor. It may feel like that listening to the chatter, but don't all investors collectively always own the market portfolio? That's not to say that segments of the sto...
by asset_chaos
Fri Apr 11, 2014 7:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Bubble in Value Stocks?
Replies: 31
Views: 2468

Re: emerging markets should they be in your portfolio

The broadest possible stock diversification is my friend. As a global index investor, I already accept that I will always own the poorest performing market sectors---market sector defined however you like and over whatever time frame you like---in the same way that I will also always own the best pe...
by asset_chaos
Thu Apr 10, 2014 5:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: emerging markets should they be in your portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1503

Re: POLL: Do rebalance bands matter?

Rebalancing is trading off a known loss today from the cost of rebalancing for the potential reduction of even greater market losses at some unknown time in the future. It's all about keeping your risks at the comfort level you've chosen. Therefore, the size of the rebalancing band should be a funct...
by asset_chaos
Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: POLL: Do rebalance bands matter?
Replies: 20
Views: 1263

Re: explaining the MOM premium

Interesting, if true. Thanks for bringing up the article. I'll have to read the paper; although, it may be over my head: I confess that I had difficulty following the multiple betas through your summary. But one item seemed very odd. Compared to Fama-French annual premia of around 3% for small and v...
by asset_chaos
Mon Mar 24, 2014 7:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: explaining the MOM premium
Replies: 25
Views: 3352

Re: Dividends and the Magic Pants

The total returns to investors come from capital gains. Do you mean the sum of capital gains and payouts? Ah, or are you referring to only the set of non-dividend paying stocks? On the pants, I recall a Nobel laureat in economics being asked to explain in layman's terms what he got the prize for. H...
by asset_chaos
Tue Mar 18, 2014 5:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends and the Magic Pants
Replies: 38
Views: 4569

Re: Job taking us from Chicago to Australia.. questions

If you haven't seen it already, here is the government webpage http://www.daff.gov.au/biosecurity/cat-dogs on bringing pets into Australia. My understanding, which involves no first-hand experience, is that the importation is a long, involved and somewhat expensive process.
by asset_chaos
Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:13 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job taking us from Chicago to Australia.. questions
Replies: 16
Views: 1220

Re: Poll: Do you use the Amazon link here to make purchases?

I use the book depository much more often than amazon these days.
by asset_chaos
Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Poll: Do you use the Amazon link here to make purchases?
Replies: 24
Views: 1216

Re: Vanguard files for active fund ETFs

Didn't Vanguard make a similar filing several years ago with the idea of adding an ETF share class to the TIPs fund? I recall reading something along those lines, but it never went anywhere. I wonder what's changed in the regulatory landscape to get Vanguard to have another go?
by asset_chaos
Fri Mar 07, 2014 6:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard files for active fund ETFs
Replies: 21
Views: 1525

Re: Scientists' view of Biotech Investing

Aside from insider info, which is illegal to trade on, why do people working in a buisness sector think they have an edge on investing in that sector? Doesn't everyone in that sector share in the same specialized knowledge about that sector. Why aren't then all participants in the sector rich from t...
by asset_chaos
Sun Mar 02, 2014 4:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scientists' view of Biotech Investing
Replies: 3
Views: 381

Re: Is Total World considered tilting?

Total world is as far away from tilted stock investing as you can get. It is the total global stock market---or pretty close to it---and certainly as close to the total market (FTSE says 98% of global market cap) as one can get at this time.
by asset_chaos
Fri Feb 28, 2014 6:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Total World considered tilting?
Replies: 8
Views: 743

Re: Local college invests 56% of assets in "alternatives"

Unless you believe that investments fall into two simple categories: "good" and "bad"... for all purposes, all investors, and all sizes of portfolio. I do belive this. And that the University of Rochester must know which is the good stuff, because it is one of the top 32 univers...
by asset_chaos
Mon Feb 24, 2014 7:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Local college invests 56% of assets in "alternatives"
Replies: 16
Views: 1250

Re: Help classifying assets in employer funded retirement

It may be easier to think of assets as lower risk or higher risk. Bonds are lower risk, and stocks are higher risk. You want some of each in your portfolio because they play complimentary roles: lower risk assets for stability and higher risk assets for growth expectations. Hedge funds, private equi...
by asset_chaos
Sat Feb 22, 2014 4:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help classifying assets in employer funded retirement
Replies: 4
Views: 274

Economist covers Bogle's Arithmetic

The Ecomomist magazine comments on Bogle's recent article “The Arithmetic of ‘All-In’ Investment Expenses”, Financial Analysts Journal, Volume 70, Number 1 http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21596965-costs-actively-managed-funds-are-higher-most-investors-realise-against . I'm sure a...
by asset_chaos
Fri Feb 21, 2014 6:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economist covers Bogle's Arithmetic
Replies: 13
Views: 1786

Re: POLL: Is someone in your family a member of this Forum?

I ticked 'no', but I don't know that with absolute certainty; however, I really, really doubt it.
by asset_chaos
Wed Feb 12, 2014 4:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: POLL: Is someone in your family a member of this Forum?
Replies: 36
Views: 1908

Re: Portfolio theory and the riskless (safest) asset

Do indexed perpetuities exist anywhere? Or is a 30 year TIP close enough to perpetual?
by asset_chaos
Fri Feb 07, 2014 10:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio theory and the riskless (safest) asset
Replies: 54
Views: 3718

Re: faith based investing and impact on capital markets

Klneutral, Block cookies from being set. I block cookies and the entire article appears when I click the link. When I pause the cookie-blocker and click the link, then I'm asked to register to read the 2nd page.
by asset_chaos
Tue Feb 04, 2014 7:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: faith based investing and impact on capital markets
Replies: 16
Views: 1351

Re: Ally Bank Checking Interest Rate Drop

This thread prompted me to look. The interest rate on my Ally checking account has dropped to 0.65 from 0.75.
by asset_chaos
Sat Feb 01, 2014 4:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Bank Checking Interest Rate Drop
Replies: 10
Views: 1249

Re: What do you think of Vngrd Personal Advisors (for.03% fe

Is yours a $10 million portfolio, or is the zero in the wrong place in 0.03%? If the former---and it was me---I wouldn't sweat $3k a year. If you're complaining about cutting back on expenses, maybe you can't generate the income for the lifestyle you really want in retirement right now and should co...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 31, 2014 8:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do you think of Vngrd Personal Advisors (for.03% fees)?
Replies: 18
Views: 2266

Re: Mimicking DFA Portfolio

My core stock holding is total world, but I also invest in a small value tilt. (Some on this board would call this speculating, and I might not argue the point too vehemently, but I'll still call it investing.) I get the global small value tilt via Vanguard and Wisdomtree funds/ETFs (VSIAX, DLS, DGS...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 24, 2014 8:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mimicking DFA Portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 890

Re: How Rational Are Our Economic Decisions?

For some definition of rational that does not include multiplication. The "rational investor" posited by economists will always prefer the $3000 loss, since it has a greater expected value. -3,000 > .8 * -4,000 = -3,200. Of course, you're right. I hadn't looked carefully enough before spo...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Rational Are Our Economic Decisions?
Replies: 20
Views: 1639

Re: How Rational Are Our Economic Decisions?

Scenario One – The test subject was asked to pick between: Option A: A 100% chance of losing $3000 or Option B: An 80% chance of losing $4000, and a 20% chance of losing nothing. The rational answer to this scenario is indeterminant because it's contingent: it's not a correct pair with scenario Two...
by asset_chaos
Sun Jan 19, 2014 8:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Rational Are Our Economic Decisions?
Replies: 20
Views: 1639

Re: How Rational Are Our Economic Decisions?

"Does it make sense to suppose that economic decisions or market prices can be modeled in the precise way that mathematical economists have traditionally favored? Or is there some emotionality in all of us that defies such modeling? I'm not an economist, but I suspect these are not incompatibl...
by asset_chaos
Sun Jan 19, 2014 8:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Rational Are Our Economic Decisions?
Replies: 20
Views: 1639

Re: vanguard total world - expense ratio decline path

According to the last annual report for total world fund, dated end of October 2013, the actual expenses were down to 0.29%. But you have to look through the footnotes to find this. It seems a resonable bet that, like last year, sometime in Q1 Vanguard will announce a lowering of the headline prospe...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jan 18, 2014 6:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vanguard total world - expense ratio decline path
Replies: 4
Views: 633

Re: Harder to stay the course with Bull than with Bear

Have you considered that your current asset allocation is riskier than your true risk tolerance? As stock market levels are worrying you and causing you to, in effect, change your asset allocation by holding a higher proportion of low risk cash, are you hinting to yourself that the risk tolerance yo...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jan 15, 2014 8:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harder to stay the course with Bull than with Bear
Replies: 18
Views: 1566

Re: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013

The geometric mean of my portfolio's returns for the past 10 years is 7.4%, around 5.3% real. That's based on end of year account balances and fund returns, so does not properly account for fresh investment and rebalancing, as noted by many above. However, as all accounts I control are at Vanguard, ...
by asset_chaos
Sun Jan 12, 2014 6:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your 10-year historical returns (to Dec 31, 2013)
Replies: 71
Views: 2844

Re: Is this portfolio aggressive or conservative?

All I really want to know is whether my portfolio as stands is aggressive, or whether it is conservative. One needs to know at least that much to make sensible decisions, and realistically, I don't. I don't think you'll get a definitive answer because the only definitive answer can come from you an...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jan 08, 2014 8:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this portfolio aggressive or conservative?
Replies: 38
Views: 2727

Re: Surprises in 2014

Although not a surprise, the trend toward low-cost investing will accelerate. Not accelerating yet but rising nicely. Maybe arithmetic is finally catching on. http://im.morningstar.com/content/CMSImages/2065.jpg From M* http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=624641
by asset_chaos
Tue Jan 07, 2014 5:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Surprises in 2014
Replies: 51
Views: 3551

Re: How much a baby costs?

We found two things that helped save a lot on baby expenses. It's worth it to check if either of these are available to you. One was a diaper factory outlet store not too far from us. Diapers bought in packages of 150 were about half the unit cost of the packages of 30 available in grocery stores; b...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jan 06, 2014 6:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much a baby costs?
Replies: 86
Views: 4033

Re: How do you determine when to harvest your tax losses?

I review my portfolio around the middle of the year and towards the end of the year. During these reviews, I check if there are any losses and harvest them at that time if they exist. I also check if any rebalancing can be done in a cost free way. As I don't review my portfolio in depth more frequen...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 03, 2014 8:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you determine when to harvest your tax losses?
Replies: 12
Views: 680

Re: Vanguard 2013 Fund Flows per Morningstar

In its year end flow update M* today says (here http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=624641 ) that for 2013 Vanguard took in around a quarter of what M* calls "long-term mutual fund and ETF assets". I think by long term they mean not counting money market flows. The best ...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 03, 2014 7:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 2013 Fund Flows per Morningstar
Replies: 5
Views: 718

Re: Rebalancing between Vanguard Brokerage IRA & VG mutual I

Is this multiple, different IRA accounts? Or a single IRA account within which you have opened a brokerage account? If the former, I don't believe you can make transfers. If the latter, then at Vanguard it works exactly the same as for your personal, taxable account, just it's all self-contained wit...
by asset_chaos
Mon Dec 30, 2013 6:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing between Vanguard Brokerage IRA & VG mutual IRA
Replies: 11
Views: 911

Re: LifeStrategy fund vs a prof. managed index portfolio

You want a 40 stocks/60 bonds asset allocation. Lifestrategy conservative growth seems perfect for you. Go do it. Then stop reading the buisness section and stop watching financial news shows. Do print out your post and keep it. Then read it the next time there's a bear market, or any time you get t...
by asset_chaos
Mon Dec 30, 2013 6:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: LifeStrategy fund vs a prof. managed index portfolio
Replies: 29
Views: 2543

Re: Three Fund approach and Vanguard minimums

Could you invest everything in each account right now in whichever target retirement fund is around 70/30? Then in a couple of years of further savings into the accounts, there will likely be enough to satisfy minimums and break the investment up into 3 separate funds, if you still want. Or, you cou...
by asset_chaos
Sun Dec 29, 2013 4:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Three Fund approach and Vanguard minimums
Replies: 10
Views: 1241

Re: Considerations for High Taxable/Tax Advantaged Ratio

It's not true that all the tax-managed funds are going away. Tax-Managed International is being merged with Developed Markets Index and Tax-Managed Growth and Income will be merged with the S&P 500 Index. The others (Balanced, Capital Appreciation, Small Cap) remain open. Thanks for the correct...
by asset_chaos
Sun Dec 29, 2013 4:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considerations for High Taxable/Tax Advantaged Ratio
Replies: 16
Views: 1362

Re: On Discipline and Emotion (from Vanguard)

Great! A Vanguard approved and supplied data mining tool for market timing rules. Take the first figure interactive graphic and set time from 2000 to 2011 and input rules Pull out of the market when my balance has dropped by: 10% Re-enter the market when the market has risen by: 10% You come out 35%...
by asset_chaos
Sat Dec 28, 2013 12:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On Discipline and Emotion (from Vanguard)
Replies: 7
Views: 812

Re: Considerations for High Taxable/Tax Advantaged Ratio

On bonds. The Vanguard Mass muni fund has a somewhat longer duration (over 7 years) than the national intermediate muni fund or total bond (both around 5 years). If you don't want the bit of extra term risk, you could use 40% of short term muni and 60% Mass muni to get the duration to better match t...
by asset_chaos
Fri Dec 27, 2013 11:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considerations for High Taxable/Tax Advantaged Ratio
Replies: 16
Views: 1362
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