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Re: Total World Fund - Under appreciated?

Non-US investors ought to benefit the most from a total world stock investment, but non-US investors, by-and-large, least appreciate indexing, so by extension are under appreciating a total world stock index fund. If your domestic market is 10% of the global stock market, which is the next largest a...
by asset_chaos
Thu Oct 30, 2014 8:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total World Fund - Under appreciated?
Replies: 18
Views: 1911

Re: If holding cash, do you want a Great Depression?

If you're projecting or hoping for a new Depression, wouldn't long term treasury bonds be the investment of choice, to take advantage of the monumental deflation?
by asset_chaos
Mon Oct 27, 2014 7:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If holding cash, do you want a Great Depression?
Replies: 50
Views: 3927

Re: Capital gains in taxable; DFA / Vanguard

There's nothing wrong with that portfolio or the funds in it per se . But, as you've changed your mind to want more simplicity---and that's a good thing to have---it's doesn't fulfill that new goal. But if it were me, I would not value simplicity sufficiently that I would pay $27k in capital gains t...
by asset_chaos
Sun Oct 26, 2014 7:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Capital gains in taxable; DFA / Vanguard
Replies: 5
Views: 726

Re: What is the recommended amount of international holdings

Above zero and less than or equal to global market weight would cover all reasonable recommendations for an American investor. Place your investment dollars wherever in that band that keeps you comfortable and unconcerned whenever non-US stocks do better or worse than US stocks for some time. I thin...
by asset_chaos
Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the recommended amount of international holdings?
Replies: 15
Views: 1692

Re: Fundamental Index Funds?

I thought all the fundamental index funds were just a roundabout way to value exposure, even if the index sponsors say otherwise. But value is a risk factor: the investor can take some more risk than the market and expect to get some more return than the market. And maybe extra return is worth while...
by asset_chaos
Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fundamental Index Funds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1348

Re: 401K changing Pimco Tot Ret to VG Int Term Bond Index. O

Not because the percentage of Treasuries is such-and-such, but because it's fixed at 50%, whereas TBM will drift over time, albeit slowly, depending on government policies. I don't think that's exactly correct. I see that on the fund profile page the product summary says "This index fund offer...
by asset_chaos
Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K changing Pimco Tot Ret to VG Int Term Bond Index. OK?
Replies: 17
Views: 1256

Re: want to live foreign country

I think you'll have to narrow down what part of the world you're interested in before you can get concrete advice. I moved to Australia, though not to the tropical part, for work a number of years ago, and Oz has everything on your list; although, cheap may be debatable now. My residency visa was sp...
by asset_chaos
Sat Oct 18, 2014 3:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: want to live foreign country
Replies: 10
Views: 1345

Re: New to Investing, Based in Hong Kong

What I am reading so far is US centred – I am Hong Kong based. If I invest in say the 2nd grader funds, will I be subject to US taxes/costs or local taxes/costs? A real newbie question I know. You most likely do not want to invest through brokerages in the US. You'll probably be better off finding ...
by asset_chaos
Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to Investing, Based in Hong Kong
Replies: 51
Views: 2640

Re: Does your ROTH hold risky or stable items?

Por que no los dos? I keep half small value and half intermediate TIPs in the Roth (although, I wouldn't say intermediate bonds are exactly stable and without risk). A balanced allocation in the Roth also serves an ancilliary behavioral purpose. If I ever feel the urge to 'just do something' to the ...
by asset_chaos
Mon Oct 13, 2014 11:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your ROTH hold risky or stable items?
Replies: 56
Views: 3393

Re: if you wouldn't buy Total Bond Market now, then when and

I invest in Intermediate bond index fund for more or less idiosyncratic reasons and in Intermediate tax exempt for more solid reasons instead of total bond market. If I had a tax deferred account where total bond was the only indexed bond fund choice, I would be perfectly content to invest my bond a...
by asset_chaos
Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: if you wouldn't buy Total Bond Market now, then when and why
Replies: 7
Views: 1552

Re: Should your AA change based on World Events?

There are about 9 bllion world events every day. Which world events will prompt you to change your portfolio? Will the democracy protests in Hong Kong topple the communist dictatorship or fizzle out? Will the reforms of its new prime minister enfeeble or invigorate India? Will Brazil pick a new pres...
by asset_chaos
Mon Oct 13, 2014 4:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should your AA change based on World Events?
Replies: 22
Views: 1388

Re: Investing in the Netherlands

Can you clarify if you're a Dutch citizen? It will probably make a difference for the investing options that make sense for you.
by asset_chaos
Sat Oct 11, 2014 6:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in the Netherlands
Replies: 5
Views: 595

Re: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?

Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value? First off, there's extra risk. I think the evidence supports the conclusion that the extra risk is compensated with extra return, as long as your extra costs for tilt are small enough. (My elaboration of that point here http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic....
by asset_chaos
Thu Oct 09, 2014 12:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 52
Views: 2942

Re: Total world stock index

For the OP's question, I say no, total world stock index is not too expensive. And I put my money where my opinion is by having total world as my family's core stock investment.
by asset_chaos
Sat Oct 04, 2014 7:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total world stock index
Replies: 19
Views: 2425

Re: [Poll] Eurozone Investors and Home Bias

On equities for a Eurozone investor it is especially important to diversify globally. The Eurozone is c. 20% of world equity markets I think? Vanguard's total world stock index fund says Europe is about 23%. But to get the Eurozone you have to subtract the UK, Switzerland, Sweden and other countrie...
by asset_chaos
Tue Sep 30, 2014 8:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Eurozone Investors and Home Bias
Replies: 5
Views: 409

Re: Portfolio Advice/Questions for a Swede/European

Congratulations on taking the time to learn about investing matters. Aquiring the discipline to save, learn and make a financial plan means you are more likely to secure your financial future. Your choice of stock:bond ratio seems reasonable for your age and circumstances. I'll assume that you have ...
by asset_chaos
Sat Sep 27, 2014 5:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Advice/Questions for a Swede/European
Replies: 39
Views: 1523

Re: Does the McClellan Oscillator hold any merit?

I get more use from the Van der Pol oscillator.
by asset_chaos
Wed Sep 24, 2014 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the McClellan Oscillator hold any merit?
Replies: 15
Views: 1100

Re: Benefits to remote work, being EXPAT, etc.

4 weeks annual leave. Have to file both US tax returns and Australian tax returns. Australian tax is individual, not family based, so separate tax filings for you and spouse, but two tax-free thresholds. Australian fiscal year is July-june. Use the ATO's tax software; it's pretty good and free. Welc...
by asset_chaos
Tue Sep 23, 2014 6:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Benefits to remote work, being EXPAT, etc.
Replies: 4
Views: 464

Re: Very lost on random inherited bonds in portfolio

I don't know what you should do, but I'll tell you what I did and why in a similar situation. The bonds I inherited were all older and had coupons noticeably above then current market rates; the bonds were all mortgage and corporate, so all had some kind of credit risk. The total value was not insig...
by asset_chaos
Wed Sep 17, 2014 2:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very lost on random inherited bonds in portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 650

Re: Feeling smug until 10 year ROR from Vanguard

Drat. I just looked and my personal performance calculation at Vanguard is still limited to max 5 years.
by asset_chaos
Sat Sep 13, 2014 1:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Feeling smug until 10 year ROR from Vanguard
Replies: 81
Views: 7783

Re: Blog:Vanguard UK cuts fees on index tracker funds and ET

The Australian LifeStrategy funds have, from memory, 30% of stocks in the Australian market. I don't know how Vanguard decides these things. I suspect it's a marketing decision about what they think local investors will like/tolerate. Maybe it's dressed up with some backward looking efficient fronti...
by asset_chaos
Sun Aug 31, 2014 5:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog:Vanguard UK cuts fees on index tracker funds and ETFs
Replies: 2
Views: 422

Re: Will Vanguard fire me if I retire overseas? (Schwab bett

I've lived overseas for most of the last 20 years, and Vanguard certainly knows I do. I have not yet faced any restrictions on operating my Vanguard accounts. Of course, rules and policies may change in the future but no problem so far. Have you asked Vanguard what restrictions, if any, you may face...
by asset_chaos
Sat Aug 30, 2014 6:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will Vanguard fire me if I retire overseas? (Schwab better?)
Replies: 14
Views: 2202

Re: Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers

Could this all be happening because of the strong bull market? I wonder if people are jumping on board seeing that S&P 500 doubled its value during the last 5 years (actually ~2.5x w/ dividends re-invested). Will they stay on board when the next big correction comes? Hi Erhan, That is an intere...
by asset_chaos
Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers
Replies: 70
Views: 7194

Re: When did you hear of Bill Miller and Legg Mason Value Tr

I think I first read about him and his streak on this forum from someone posting on how the streak was over or looked soon to be over. If the streak ended 2005, then my first notice of Miller and the streak would have been around 2006 perhaps.
by asset_chaos
Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did you hear of Bill Miller and Legg Mason Value Trust?
Replies: 32
Views: 2434

Re: Currency risk for australian investor

Well done on having thought, researched and made a financial plan. You should be mildly concerned about risk from currency moves, but currency risk is by no means the only risk of home bias. The other major risk of home bias investing, particularly if your home is a small market, is sector concentra...
by asset_chaos
Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Currency risk for australian investor
Replies: 6
Views: 431

Re: Do Super wealthy have access to different investing vehi

If you're super rich in one of the countries with a less than democratically accountable government, then it is possible to partner---more or less secretly---with politicians to form a company that is granted an effective or near monopoly on some part of the local economy. I expect those investments...
by asset_chaos
Tue Aug 19, 2014 8:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Super wealthy have access to different investing vehicles
Replies: 76
Views: 6509

Re: Barry Ritholtz: Using the news

Most people would be better off ignoring the financial media in its entirety. Or make that the for profit financial media. Media like Bogleheads and many of the members blogs and articles are well worth noting.
by asset_chaos
Tue Aug 12, 2014 4:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barry Ritholtz: Using the news
Replies: 15
Views: 1866

Re: Poll: What's the name of Argentina's stock market?

MSCI say here http://www.msci.com/products/indexes/market_classification.html that Argentina moved to the frontier index from the emerging index in May 2009. Indeed here http://www.msci.com/products/indexes/licensing/msci_emerging_markets/Timeline_25_year_EM.pdf MSCI has a delightful poster about 25...
by asset_chaos
Mon Aug 11, 2014 10:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: What's the name of Argentina's stock market?
Replies: 37
Views: 2515

Re: Risk and Return of Tilted and Market Balanced Funds

I think both Larry and asset-chaos may be misinterpreting M*'s average credit rating for bond funds. I have no comment on how this affects the discussion. It' s above my pay grade. Thanks Doc. I can't speak for Larry, but I certainly was misinterpreting M*'s average credit rating. I assumed it was ...
by asset_chaos
Mon Aug 11, 2014 9:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk and Return of Tilted and Market Balanced Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 2641

Re: Risk and Return of Tilted and Market Balanced Funds

Sorry, this is supposed to be a discussion. I posted and then had to go out of town. Thank you all for the comments. The advantage is now I can post responses all at once instead of piecemeal. Nisiprius: The way I came to grips with the likelihood of period dependence is to play the academic’s trick...
by asset_chaos
Mon Aug 11, 2014 2:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk and Return of Tilted and Market Balanced Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 2641

Re: Poll: What's the name of Argentina's stock market?

At first I thought this was a trick question. Argentina instituted currency controls some years ago, and I thought that was enough to get a country booted out of international indices from outfits like MSCI and FTSE. I was expecting that no one invested via index funds had any current investment in ...
by asset_chaos
Mon Aug 11, 2014 12:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: What's the name of Argentina's stock market?
Replies: 37
Views: 2515

Risk and Return of Tilted and Market Balanced Funds

A frequent topic on this board concerns titled portfolios versus total market portfolios. Tilt most often means over-weighting small and value stocks though Fama-French (FF) factors. Duration and credit FF factors apply to bonds. More recently other factors, such as momentum and quality, have been t...
by asset_chaos
Tue Aug 05, 2014 1:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk and Return of Tilted and Market Balanced Funds
Replies: 19
Views: 2641

Re: Should retirement investors own small/value stocks at al

Retired investors certainly do make systematic changes to their portfolios. In retirement, though, these changes are withdrawls instead of deposits. But the effect is the same. During accumulation, deposits went into the recently poorly performing assets to rebalance to plan. Managing a portfolio on...
by asset_chaos
Tue Jul 29, 2014 4:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should retirement investors own small/value stocks at all?
Replies: 36
Views: 3098

Re: Australian - buying international shares fund?

Have you considered Vanguard's LifeStrategy funds? There are several with various ratios of stocks (foreign and domestic) and bonds. A single, simple fund with a stock bond balance that's appropriate for your personal circumstances may be right for you. Also, having all your investment in a single f...
by asset_chaos
Tue Jul 29, 2014 4:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Australian - buying international shares fund?
Replies: 7
Views: 465

Re: "Gel" investment strategy around midlife?

A crucial part that's missing from your argument is theory: does the "discovery" in question make economic sense. It's long term data coupled to a sensible reason for why a financial market should work that way that makes for a compelling argument that may become compelling enough to warre...
by asset_chaos
Thu Jul 24, 2014 10:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Gel" investment strategy around midlife?
Replies: 5
Views: 861

Re: Vanguard not vigilant about taxes?

Was it last year when all of South Korea migrated from emerging to developed when the funds changed indexes? Did that generate taxable distributions to fund investors; I don't recall, but I think not? Moving all of South Korea I expect would have been a much larger maneuver than moving this single c...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard not vigilant about taxes?
Replies: 15
Views: 1752

Re: Question about Vanguard ETFs for non-US investors

The interest from US municipal bonds is free from US federal income tax. This means the interest rate they pay is typically (though not strictly always) lower than for taxable US bonds of similar credit quality and duration. A non-US person who doesn't pay US tax anyway wouldn't benefit from owning ...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about Vanguard ETFs for non-US investors
Replies: 6
Views: 729

Buttonwood does Bernstein

The Ecomomist columnist who goes by the nom de plume of Buttonwood has written on "The conundrum of asset allocation" featuring ideas from the new book by Bill Berstein, Rational Investing , here http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21607848-conundrum-asset-allocation-no-eas...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buttonwood does Bernstein
Replies: 0
Views: 441

Re: [Poll] Are you more risk averse than average?

It's hard to say because I don't know the risk profile of the average investor. It may not even be a well-posed question. Here's a version of the question, however, that can be unambiguously answered, if we assemble the right data. What is the risk in your portfolio compared to the aggregate risk in...
by asset_chaos
Sun Jul 13, 2014 10:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Are you more risk averse than average?
Replies: 36
Views: 2852

Re: What ONE investing book or article for skeptical sibling

Someone skeptical of investing and leaning towards gold and real estate may not read all the way through a good book. A short article or two, that the skeptic may read to completion, may make more of an impression, or at least give a little nudge down the right path. Some that come to mind are the W...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jul 11, 2014 1:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ONE investing book or article for skeptical sibling?
Replies: 30
Views: 3038

Re: How to Handle a Multi-Generational Trust

On question 1, I suggest you want funds that anyone could reasonably hold as core investment funds, regardless of their age. Then family members don't have to sell investments and incur taxes when the trust disolves. Such funds could include total world stock market, total US stock market, total non...
by asset_chaos
Tue Jul 08, 2014 11:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Handle a Multi-Generational Trust
Replies: 24
Views: 3166

Re: stocks about to plunge

"stocks about to plunge"

Zippy, this would make my rebalancing decisions so much easier!
by asset_chaos
Tue Jul 08, 2014 11:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stocks about to plunge
Replies: 39
Views: 8041

Re: Pension Portfolio for 77yr old Nonno - in Australia

Seems like a reasonable portfolio for the stated goals. A couple of comments. Is the 77 year old ok with it? It's her money, and while I'm sure she appreciates your interest and help, will the portfolio let the old person sleep well whenever the next stock market down turn comes? For someone near 80...
by asset_chaos
Sun Jun 29, 2014 5:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension Portfolio for 77yr old Nonno - in Australia
Replies: 7
Views: 560

Re: World Market Cap Representation

By market do you mean stock market or sum of stock and bond markets? If stock, some of those numbers are way off. For stocks you could look at https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0628&FundIntExt=INT both for a country list of of global stock market share and for a suggestion o...
by asset_chaos
Tue Jun 17, 2014 9:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: World Market Cap Representation
Replies: 4
Views: 579

Re: How much does cost matter? (Plotting ER vs. Alpha)

I recall that Bill Bernstein made a similar plot in one of his Efficient Frontier articles. I also seem to recall that he found that the decrease in return was greater than the expense ratio and conjectured that this was due to the other expenses that are only visible in footnotes or hidden altogeth...
by asset_chaos
Sun Jun 15, 2014 8:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much does cost matter? (Plotting ER vs. Alpha)
Replies: 15
Views: 1188

Re: Why would I need VT, BND AND VTI?

Non-US citizens should ignore most discussions on this board about the split in US/non-US stock allocation. That's not because it's wrong per se, it's because it's overwhelmingly based on the preferences (dare I say biases), point of view and needs of the US investor. The non-US stock investor, whos...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jun 13, 2014 7:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would I need VT, BND AND VTI?
Replies: 4
Views: 621

Re: Inherited Unit trusts and individual bonds

I suggest the muni bond trusts are inappropriate inside the IRA, and therefore those should be sold as soon as reasonable and the proceeds reinvested as per your plan. For the corporate bonds those higher interest payments are there for the term risk (interest rates could rise during the term of the...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jun 13, 2014 7:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inherited Unit trusts and individual bonds
Replies: 8
Views: 579

Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns

I don't see the 2.5 from the numbers in the table and the postulated asset allocation of 40% bonds, 20% non-US (about 30% of the 60% sock allocation) and 40% US stocks. I get at best -1*0.4 + 5*0.2 + 2*0.4 = 1.4. Does Bernstein expect multiple expansion for the other 1 percent? I've ordered the book...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jun 09, 2014 5:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 207
Views: 18066

Re: What are you doing with the market at an all time high?

Sometime in the first half of July I'll run rebalancing calculations, as per my usual schedule. If rebalancing thresholds have been breached, I'll think about exactly how and where to rebalance. If no rebalancing thresholds have been breached, I'll continue to do nothing portfolio-wise.
by asset_chaos
Sun Jun 08, 2014 7:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are you doing with the market at an all time high?
Replies: 95
Views: 6679
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