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Re: "Gel" investment strategy around midlife?

A crucial part that's missing from your argument is theory: does the "discovery" in question make economic sense. It's long term data coupled to a sensible reason for why a financial market should work that way that makes for a compelling argument that may become compelling enough to warre...
by asset_chaos
Thu Jul 24, 2014 10:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Gel" investment strategy around midlife?
Replies: 5
Views: 807

Re: Vanguard not vigilant about taxes?

Was it last year when all of South Korea migrated from emerging to developed when the funds changed indexes? Did that generate taxable distributions to fund investors; I don't recall, but I think not? Moving all of South Korea I expect would have been a much larger maneuver than moving this single c...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard not vigilant about taxes?
Replies: 15
Views: 1617

Re: Question about Vanguard ETFs for non-US investors

The interest from US municipal bonds is free from US federal income tax. This means the interest rate they pay is typically (though not strictly always) lower than for taxable US bonds of similar credit quality and duration. A non-US person who doesn't pay US tax anyway wouldn't benefit from owning ...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about Vanguard ETFs for non-US investors
Replies: 6
Views: 683

Buttonwood does Bernstein

The Ecomomist columnist who goes by the nom de plume of Buttonwood has written on "The conundrum of asset allocation" featuring ideas from the new book by Bill Berstein, Rational Investing , here http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21607848-conundrum-asset-allocation-no-eas...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buttonwood does Bernstein
Replies: 0
Views: 428

Re: [Poll] Are you more risk averse than average?

It's hard to say because I don't know the risk profile of the average investor. It may not even be a well-posed question. Here's a version of the question, however, that can be unambiguously answered, if we assemble the right data. What is the risk in your portfolio compared to the aggregate risk in...
by asset_chaos
Sun Jul 13, 2014 10:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Are you more risk averse than average?
Replies: 36
Views: 2603

Re: What ONE investing book or article for skeptical sibling

Someone skeptical of investing and leaning towards gold and real estate may not read all the way through a good book. A short article or two, that the skeptic may read to completion, may make more of an impression, or at least give a little nudge down the right path. Some that come to mind are the W...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jul 11, 2014 1:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ONE investing book or article for skeptical sibling?
Replies: 30
Views: 2868

Re: How to Handle a Multi-Generational Trust

On question 1, I suggest you want funds that anyone could reasonably hold as core investment funds, regardless of their age. Then family members don't have to sell investments and incur taxes when the trust disolves. Such funds could include total world stock market, total US stock market, total non...
by asset_chaos
Tue Jul 08, 2014 11:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Handle a Multi-Generational Trust
Replies: 23
Views: 2788

Re: stocks about to plunge

"stocks about to plunge"

Zippy, this would make my rebalancing decisions so much easier!
by asset_chaos
Tue Jul 08, 2014 11:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stocks about to plunge
Replies: 39
Views: 7681

Re: Pension Portfolio for 77yr old Nonno - in Australia

Seems like a reasonable portfolio for the stated goals. A couple of comments. Is the 77 year old ok with it? It's her money, and while I'm sure she appreciates your interest and help, will the portfolio let the old person sleep well whenever the next stock market down turn comes? For someone near 80...
by asset_chaos
Sun Jun 29, 2014 5:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension Portfolio for 77yr old Nonno - in Australia
Replies: 7
Views: 448

Re: World Market Cap Representation

By market do you mean stock market or sum of stock and bond markets? If stock, some of those numbers are way off. For stocks you could look at https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0628&FundIntExt=INT both for a country list of of global stock market share and for a suggestion o...
by asset_chaos
Tue Jun 17, 2014 9:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: World Market Cap Representation
Replies: 4
Views: 554

Re: How much does cost matter? (Plotting ER vs. Alpha)

I recall that Bill Bernstein made a similar plot in one of his Efficient Frontier articles. I also seem to recall that he found that the decrease in return was greater than the expense ratio and conjectured that this was due to the other expenses that are only visible in footnotes or hidden altogeth...
by asset_chaos
Sun Jun 15, 2014 8:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much does cost matter? (Plotting ER vs. Alpha)
Replies: 15
Views: 1092

Re: Why would I need VT, BND AND VTI?

Non-US citizens should ignore most discussions on this board about the split in US/non-US stock allocation. That's not because it's wrong per se, it's because it's overwhelmingly based on the preferences (dare I say biases), point of view and needs of the US investor. The non-US stock investor, whos...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jun 13, 2014 7:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would I need VT, BND AND VTI?
Replies: 4
Views: 569

Re: Inherited Unit trusts and individual bonds

I suggest the muni bond trusts are inappropriate inside the IRA, and therefore those should be sold as soon as reasonable and the proceeds reinvested as per your plan. For the corporate bonds those higher interest payments are there for the term risk (interest rates could rise during the term of the...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jun 13, 2014 7:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inherited Unit trusts and individual bonds
Replies: 8
Views: 523

Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns

I don't see the 2.5 from the numbers in the table and the postulated asset allocation of 40% bonds, 20% non-US (about 30% of the 60% sock allocation) and 40% US stocks. I get at best -1*0.4 + 5*0.2 + 2*0.4 = 1.4. Does Bernstein expect multiple expansion for the other 1 percent? I've ordered the book...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jun 09, 2014 5:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 207
Views: 17152

Re: What are you doing with the market at an all time high?

Sometime in the first half of July I'll run rebalancing calculations, as per my usual schedule. If rebalancing thresholds have been breached, I'll think about exactly how and where to rebalance. If no rebalancing thresholds have been breached, I'll continue to do nothing portfolio-wise.
by asset_chaos
Sun Jun 08, 2014 7:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are you doing with the market at an all time high?
Replies: 95
Views: 6506

Re: Would you work without pay?

I'm a scientist too, and the science part of my job I'd do for free. Certainly I've worked the science part happily for much less money than I'm paid now. But the other parts of the job, budgeting, people management, internal reorganization meetings, chasing funding, marketing, for those they have t...
by asset_chaos
Thu May 29, 2014 5:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you work without pay?
Replies: 63
Views: 4008

Re: Vanguard Continues to Lower Expenses

Let's see them lowered for the Lifestrategy funds! Or at least when you accumulate a certain amount in them then the ER lowers! Something....anything.... :happy LifeStrategy fees have declined somewhat over the years. For instance, in 2008 LS Growth cost 21 bp, and today it's 17; although, that may...
by asset_chaos
Thu May 29, 2014 12:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Continues to Lower Expenses
Replies: 15
Views: 3611

Re: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?

What happened to 2010?
by asset_chaos
Wed May 28, 2014 2:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This market is a snoozer, do you like it?
Replies: 45
Views: 4516

Re: Investment Feedback Particularly Welcome. [Australia]

Anyway, I see an easy way for you to get 20% into safety that you can rebalance from in a big crash. How would I get 20% to safety, do you mean after I much 80% of the portpolio? Can you please elaborate on this point. I shouldn't speak for others, but I think he's saying obliquely what others said...
by asset_chaos
Mon May 26, 2014 6:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Feedback Particularly Welcome. [Australia]
Replies: 13
Views: 479

Re: Investment Feedback Particularly Welcome. [Australia]

As for the silver, I really enjoy having it and looking at it. So I suppose it has a side benefit. Ha, ha, ha, now I wonder if you're pulling our leg. I became curious and this site http://www.24hgold.com/english/gold_silver_prices_charts.aspx?money=AUSD&p=argent , about whose reliability I kno...
by asset_chaos
Mon May 26, 2014 6:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Feedback Particularly Welcome. [Australia]
Replies: 13
Views: 479

Re: 401k while in Australia? Help

Thank you daffyd. I did not know that one could be living in Australia for years and not be a resident for super purposes. My own super will not provide any helpful guidelines because I'm in a defined benefit fund. That's a good point about the Roth, but I think if the OP has enough US sourced incom...
by asset_chaos
Sun May 25, 2014 10:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k while in Australia? Help
Replies: 4
Views: 434

Re: How to Invest Trust Assets for income & growth

I'm not sure how selling stocks would generate income for me unless the gains are short term capital gains. Any long term gains become part of the principal I believe. I think that's not correct. Gains of any type can be distributed. You list their character on the K-1. Long term and short term cap...
by asset_chaos
Sun May 25, 2014 5:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Invest Trust Assets for income & growth
Replies: 18
Views: 1283

Re: I need some "hand-holding" right now...

the new law is FATCA, voted on in 2010, becoming effective only now, July 1, 2014. I've read it will be the official start of the US dollar's collapse. Not sure why, but sounds bad! FATCA only applies to foreign, i.e. non-US, accounts, so it won't even be noticed by most Americans. And by most, I m...
by asset_chaos
Sat May 24, 2014 8:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I need some "hand-holding" right now...
Replies: 51
Views: 5334

Re: 401k while in Australia? Help

When we move back to the US we’ll get a check for the whole amount. I'd double check on that. You say your wife will be an Australian resident working for an Australian company. Normally early access to superannuation is legally restricted to a small set of hardship circumstances. Leaving the count...
by asset_chaos
Sat May 24, 2014 7:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k while in Australia? Help
Replies: 4
Views: 434

Re: How to Invest Trust Assets for income & growth

One thing to consider is that when your children receive the trust assets there is no step up in basis. So you want investments that they could hold as core investments, regardless of what stage of life they're in at the time. I think this means you want separate stock and bond funds, broadly divers...
by asset_chaos
Sat May 24, 2014 7:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Invest Trust Assets for income & growth
Replies: 18
Views: 1283

Re: We won best paper from S&P SPIVA worldwide!

Good paper, well deserved reward.
by asset_chaos
Thu May 22, 2014 4:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We won best paper from S&P SPIVA worldwide!
Replies: 39
Views: 3035

Re: My take on AQR paper on myths about MOM

Alpha? We have lots of data on managed funds returns. Where's the alpha? There has been no management alpha in aggregate, and where it does show up, it's not persistent. That's usually attributed to the high costs of active management. If you're saying that a large, persistent momentum premium has s...
by asset_chaos
Wed May 21, 2014 5:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My take on AQR paper on myths about MOM
Replies: 7
Views: 863

Re: My take on AQR paper on myths about MOM

If momentum is persistent, has a huge return, and isn't obliterated by trading costs and taxes, the question is why haven't people been making a gazillion dollars off it for the last half century or so? There's a bit of a too good to be true flavor about some of the numbers being touted for momentum...
by asset_chaos
Tue May 20, 2014 5:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My take on AQR paper on myths about MOM
Replies: 7
Views: 863

Re: Muni component in Life Strategy funds

What you want doesn't exist, and, due to lack of demand, probably won't exist. Three alternatives come to mind. 1) Set your taxable stock:bond ratio with individual funds and just never rebalance. The balanced funds in tax deferred will keep a portion (you don't say if it's a large or small portion)...
by asset_chaos
Tue May 20, 2014 5:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Muni component in Life Strategy funds
Replies: 14
Views: 874

Re: Poll:Do small stocks have higher expected returns than l

The absolute degree of risk of stocks and of bonds changes over time, as does the relative risk of the two. You likely have much less control over portfolio risk than is implied by "I have control of total portfolio risk through an appropriate bond allocation." Maybe true at the margins b...
by asset_chaos
Tue May 13, 2014 4:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll:Do small stocks have higher expected returns than large
Replies: 78
Views: 4620

Re: "Fortune favors the bold" (or does it?)

The OP is correct. We celebrate the successful. The many, many other people whose gambles, all as bold as those of the successful, failed are, depending on their field of endeavor, forgotten or buried. But it's good that, short of fatality, people behind failed ideas can try again and again.
by asset_chaos
Tue May 13, 2014 1:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Fortune favors the bold" (or does it?)
Replies: 31
Views: 2481

Re: Poll:Do small stocks have higher expected returns than l

Expected higher return and expected higher risk (standard deviation). I'm happy to take a gamble on higher long term returns if the higher risks are proportionate and I have control of total portfolio risk through an appropriate bond allocation. As Bogle has said here http://www.vanguard.com/bogle_s...
by asset_chaos
Tue May 13, 2014 1:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll:Do small stocks have higher expected returns than large
Replies: 78
Views: 4620

Re: Graduation Gifts - PhD

Gift certificate for U-Haul or similar because she's likely moving.
by asset_chaos
Mon May 12, 2014 6:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Graduation Gifts - PhD
Replies: 15
Views: 1253

Re: Australian index funds

You specified a safe investment. How safe do you mean? If your sister means an investment gift that the girls will tap one day for their own retirement, then several of the stock heavy suggestions are reasonable. If, however, she means that the money should be there with certainty in 13 years to be ...
by asset_chaos
Mon May 12, 2014 2:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Australian index funds
Replies: 12
Views: 794

Re: Why is Two Fund Less Popular Than Three Fund Portfolio?

Since the OP is from the UK, I'll add my two cents worth of comment of the size and type of grain of salt that non-US persons should take along with advice on this board. The US stock investor is unique in that he is the only investor that can be completely home biased and be within a factor of 10 o...
by asset_chaos
Wed May 07, 2014 10:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Two Fund Less Popular Than Three Fund Portfolio?
Replies: 145
Views: 10466

Re: Global small cap fund

Global factor funds don't seem to exist. Which is somewhat surprising in this era of wild ETF proliferation.
by asset_chaos
Wed May 07, 2014 5:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Global small cap fund
Replies: 5
Views: 571

Re: Lump summing into a 529 -- What would you do?

Your 529 investment results will, I believe, have a high degree of period dependency, aka luck, no matter whether you lump sum or DCA. As a personal example of the variability, our lump sum invested in 2006 has today accumulated earnings of about 70% of the initial sum, while the lump invested in 20...
by asset_chaos
Tue May 06, 2014 10:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump summing into a 529 -- What would you do?
Replies: 14
Views: 863

Re: Buffett pulls further ahead

The Wizard wrote:Some hedge funds do better in Down Years, right?
So we need a few of those to level the playing field...

My memory's starting to go dodgy, but I could have sworn that 2008 qualified as a down year.-)
by asset_chaos
Mon May 05, 2014 1:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett pulls further ahead
Replies: 16
Views: 3087

Re: Region 2 DVD

By coincidence this happened to me just last night with a DVD from the library, of all things. DVD player said the disk was region 2 and wouldn't play; windows media player said the same thing on the pc. VLC media player played the disk fine on the pc without any sqwawk. For what it's worth, I can a...
by asset_chaos
Sun May 04, 2014 8:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Region 2 DVD
Replies: 21
Views: 1139

Re: Sell in May and Go Away: Fact or Fiction?

Sell in May must be good advice because it rhymes. Which month rhymes with stay the course, hmm?
by asset_chaos
Fri May 02, 2014 6:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sell in May and Go Away: Fact or Fiction?
Replies: 27
Views: 3886

Re: The World in ETFs

Nobody in particular decides on the fractions of US and non-US in the global stock index. All investors everywhere collectively decide how valuable publically traded companies are. U = total value of US stocks N = total value of non-US stocks G = U + N is total value of all the publically traded sto...
by asset_chaos
Thu May 01, 2014 10:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in ETFs
Replies: 6
Views: 770

Economist articles on fund mangement and rise of indexing

Articles in the Economist magazine about fund management and indexing. http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21601511-business-managing-other-peoples-money-being-commoditised-about-time-cheap-cheerful http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21601500-books-and-music-investment-industry-being-squeezed-...
by asset_chaos
Thu May 01, 2014 10:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economist articles on fund mangement and rise of indexing
Replies: 7
Views: 1341

Re: For or Against: VG International Bond Index Fund?

International bonds are a legitimate asset class, a substantial fraction of the world's investable assets, and the Vanguard fund provides a low cost way for a US individual to invest in non-US high quality bonds. I am neither for nor against this fund. I want bonds to act as the lower risk "ste...
by asset_chaos
Wed Apr 30, 2014 5:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For or Against: VG International Bond Index Fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 1095

Re: Vanguard's Small Cap Value Fund Expense Ratio Goes Up

I recall in the fund's latest annual report that a footnote reported the actual opeating expenses to be 9 bp, lower than the headline 10. So I'm doubly surprised because the 9 to 12 rise seems to imply Vanguard expects expenses to be a third higher in the coming year than last year. Regardless of th...
by asset_chaos
Mon Apr 28, 2014 9:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Small Cap Value Fund Expense Ratio Goes Up
Replies: 41
Views: 7329

Re: Guaranteed a 4% nominal return if these criteria are met

Let's assume that stock prices follow the rate of inflation (2%), earnings stay constant and the dividend yield stays at 2%. If these criteria are met, is it safe to assume that stocks will yield a 4% nominal return every year? Bogle covers this in great detail in his books. The return to stocks is...
by asset_chaos
Mon Apr 28, 2014 9:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Guaranteed a 4% nominal return if these criteria are met?
Replies: 7
Views: 2176

Re: Poll: Would you EVER recommend 100% equity?

If my kids wanted to start their investing lives with 100% equities, I wouldn't necessarily tell them they're wrong. But, if they were to ask for my recommendation, I would suggest to put some bonds into the mix. At some point in life almost everyone will want a significant allocation to bonds. I su...
by asset_chaos
Sat Apr 26, 2014 2:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Would you EVER recommend 100% equity?
Replies: 136
Views: 26846

Re: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?

I expect fear and greed are much the same as in the 1800s, which would argue that market data from that era is as relevant today as data from any other era. Strictly from the point of view of global or US market and economic structure, you could just as well question the relevance of stock market da...
by asset_chaos
Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?
Replies: 63
Views: 4854

Re: Bonds - Are they essential in a new portfolio?

I'll stick with my previous answer (in this thread http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=106727 ) to a similar question: "I suggest to put some bonds into the mix. At some point in life everyone will need a significant allocation to bonds. I suggest that it's a good idea to ha...
by asset_chaos
Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds - Are they essential in a new portfolio?
Replies: 8
Views: 1621

Re: M* caution on emerging markets dividend ETFs

What to make of this? The story and headline are just a little too breathless to pass my sniff test for good journalism. How much of the critique amounts to, if you don't cap-weight, you don't get cap-weighting results? That's just a trueism, and doesn't even seem like the usual, more cogent, critis...
by asset_chaos
Sun Apr 20, 2014 8:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M* caution on emerging markets dividend ETFs
Replies: 15
Views: 1459

Re: Does Larry Swedroe have a Podcast?

If you google "Larry Swedroe Podcast", several come up on the first page.
by asset_chaos
Thu Apr 17, 2014 10:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does Larry Swedroe have a Podcast?
Replies: 2
Views: 471
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