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Re: Which vanguard life strategy fund?Growth always outperfo

Risk is the answer to your question. 15 year returns for the LS Growth and Mod Growth from M* volatility return Sharpe ratio VASGX (80/20) 13.44 4.87 0.28 VSMGX (60/40) 10.26 5.18 0.35 Stocks over this 15 year period haven't repaid their greater volatility over bonds, hence the lower Sharpe ratio (m...
by asset_chaos
Sun Dec 21, 2014 8:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which vanguard life strategy fund?Growth always outperform?
Replies: 5
Views: 630

Re: Good, Brief Articles on the Boglehead Way?

The Bogleheads Wiki pages, perhaps; link labeled Wiki top right of this page. Also http://johncbogle.com/wordpress/ is Mr Bogle's webpage. That has lots of Bogle's papers and texts of his many speeches.
by asset_chaos
Fri Dec 19, 2014 6:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good, Brief Articles on the Boglehead Way?
Replies: 11
Views: 1379

Re: [Australia] New Vanguard ETF's

Sure, take a look at them. To me it looks like the World ex-Aus fund (sort of) replaces the combination of World ex-US and US total market. The new fund would give an Australian investor the simpler two fund solution to index global equity markets and use VAS to have their precise preferred weightin...
by asset_chaos
Fri Dec 19, 2014 6:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Australia] New Vanguard ETF's
Replies: 2
Views: 296

Re: Outperforming vs Underperforming Investors in 2014

If one is a more or less globally indexed investor, then every year one owns the best and worst performing assets. It's part and parcel of index investing. And until I can tell beforehand which market sectors will under- and over-perform (a fool's erand), owning the entire market at low cost is, I b...
by asset_chaos
Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Outperforming vs Underperforming Investors in 2014
Replies: 14
Views: 2196

Re: Better inflation-indexed guaranteed options?

What you're seeing, I believe, is just the cost of getting someone else to bear a risk for you. As (unexpected) inflation is a huge risk for a retired person, so the cost of sloughing that risk off to someone else is also huge. Even though the government now bears inflation risk for social security ...
by asset_chaos
Sun Dec 14, 2014 3:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better inflation-indexed guaranteed options?
Replies: 31
Views: 2409

Re: (Poll) Did you tap into emergency fund in the past 10 ye

I haven't used our emergency funds in the last 10 years, but I've certainly used it several times in the past when cash flows were more hand to mouth. And darn glad I was to have cash on hand at those times.
by asset_chaos
Sat Dec 13, 2014 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: (Poll) Did you tap into emergency fund in the past 10 years?
Replies: 62
Views: 4578

Re: Does 80/20 have more risk or volatility than 60/40?

You can go to the Morningstar pages for VAnguard's lifestrategy funds and look up the returns and volatilities for the 80/20 and 60/40 funds. The data is conveniently summarized in the ratings and risk tab; look for the volatility measures table. The 15 year numbers are volatility return Sharpe rati...
by asset_chaos
Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 80/20 have more risk or volatility than 60/40?
Replies: 25
Views: 2668

Re: Poll: International Equity Portfolio Changes

My core stock investment is through the total world fund. So, yes, I will stay the course, but no, I won't rebalance between foreign and domestic stocks because I will stay the course with whatever the total global stock market does. In fact, what I think I'll be doing---but I won't know until mid-J...
by asset_chaos
Thu Dec 11, 2014 6:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: International Equity Portfolio Changes
Replies: 6
Views: 617

Re: Reducing Sequence of Returns Risk

When you want to borrow during times of distress in the financial markets, how do you know that anyone will lend to you at that time? I recall in 2008 banks not lending and credit card companies arbitrarily slashing credit limits because they were conserving their own cash. An additional risk of a s...
by asset_chaos
Sat Dec 06, 2014 4:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reducing Sequence of Returns Risk
Replies: 15
Views: 2338

Re: 529 asset allocation for small windfall

This thread https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=138742 discusses asset allocation when putting a lump sum into a 529. I'll give you my view and quote myself from that thread: Your 529 investment results will, I believe, have a high degree of period dependency, aka luck, .... As ...
by asset_chaos
Tue Dec 02, 2014 11:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 asset allocation for small windfall
Replies: 17
Views: 1653

Re: World Stock Returns & GDP Growth, 1988-2013

Is the intercept of the world stock return, GWP growth correlation saying there was 2.4% a year of dilution in aggregate over the world and averaged over the time period? If so, that seems remarkably close to the 2% a year dilution Arnott and Bernstein estimated some years ago for US stocks. Or does...
by asset_chaos
Sat Nov 29, 2014 6:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: World Stock Returns & GDP Growth, 1988-2013
Replies: 10
Views: 1413

Re: non US bonds - a new asset class?

Non-US bonds are in no way a new asset class. Non-US bonds have existed for centuries and are currently more than a quarter of total global financial assets (stocks and bonds). Just as one example the British government bond market is older than the US. What's relatively new is that now small invest...
by asset_chaos
Wed Nov 26, 2014 11:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: non US bonds - a new asset class?
Replies: 11
Views: 838

Re: How did you handle the 2008 bear market ?

Welcome. You're grappling with one of the hard problems: how to really understand your own personal risk tolerance. I think it's difficult to get right early in your investing life because it does feel different to watch your hard-earned money seemingly disappear than it is to think about how you wo...
by asset_chaos
Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you handle the 2008 bear market ?
Replies: 79
Views: 6289

Re: Experiences using VRBO, Airbnb internationally

I've used Airbnb once in the US and once in Australia. (As I'm an American living in Australia, I'll let you unravel the question of which one was international.) I found both experiences positive. One was a family vacation house in the country, the other was a room in someone's house in a city in w...
by asset_chaos
Sun Nov 23, 2014 8:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Experiences using VRBO, Airbnb internationally
Replies: 26
Views: 2211

Re: What to prepare for first baby due next month?

Line up a breast pump. For us having even one bottle prepared meant mom could sleep solidly from around 11pm to 6am, while dad did the overnight feed. We were able to rent a breast pump from a volunteer organization promoting breast feeding, so we could use a nicer pump with an electric motor withou...
by asset_chaos
Wed Nov 19, 2014 3:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to prepare for first baby due next month?
Replies: 55
Views: 4310

Re: One Source to follow world markets ?

How much granularity do you want? If you just want broad stock and bond markets, set up a Morningstar portfolio with one share of each of the institutional share class of Vanguard funds total world stock market, total bond market and total international bond market. Then look at that portfolio and t...
by asset_chaos
Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One Source to follow world markets ?
Replies: 26
Views: 1874

Re: 30% In International Stocks?

Is 30% in International stocks too much? Really, the question is, is it too much for you? If that's your plan and you can stick with it and rebalance to it no matter how well or poorly foreign does in relation to domestic, then it's the right amount for you. If you're worried that you won't be able...
by asset_chaos
Wed Nov 12, 2014 9:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 30% In International Stocks?
Replies: 59
Views: 6499

Re: astonishing performance of US markets vs others

Would like to hear others viewpoint on whether such out-performance has happened in the past. Yes, of course it has. The last time I remember distinctly was the late 90s when US stocks, specifically US growth stocks, spent 5 years beating the pants off every other investment, foreign or domestic. T...
by asset_chaos
Tue Nov 11, 2014 7:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: astonishing performance of US markets vs others
Replies: 50
Views: 5282

Re: If your networth is over $3 million, how did you do it?

I'm more curious as to why you picked the precise value of $3 million.
by asset_chaos
Tue Nov 11, 2014 2:56 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If your networth is over $3 million, how did you do it?
Replies: 270
Views: 33461

Re: Christine Benz Interviews Bill Bernstein

Hi asset chaos Is there data to say this past "golden age" where everyone had a defined benefit retirement plan actually existed? . An excellent overview of the history of this and the evolution of retirement plans and social security would be the book " the predictable surprise"...
by asset_chaos
Thu Nov 06, 2014 6:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Christine Benz Interviews Bill Bernstein
Replies: 33
Views: 3917

Re: Christine Benz Interviews Bill Bernstein

Is there data to say this past "golden age" where everyone had a defined benefit retirement plan actually existed? From anecdotal evidence, I believe most Americans throughout most of the 20th century had no retirement plans beyond what they could save at the bank, with defined benefit pla...
by asset_chaos
Tue Nov 04, 2014 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Christine Benz Interviews Bill Bernstein
Replies: 33
Views: 3917

Re: Equal weight vs. capitalization weight between world reg

But when more than half the value of the global index fund is placed in US equities it seems that I’m more vulnerable to US markets and politics than I would like to be. (And, perhaps more importantly, more vulnerable to the dollar currency than desirable for a European.) These are two different co...
by asset_chaos
Sun Nov 02, 2014 9:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equal weight vs. capitalization weight between world regions
Replies: 18
Views: 1294

Re: Equal weight vs. capitalization weight between world reg

Lots of investment ideas are reasonable and will work for you if you can stick with your reasonable plan. The two stock plans you suggest are both reasonable. However, I see no reason to believe that either will be lower risk than the market stock portfolio. I suggest that if you are worried about s...
by asset_chaos
Sun Nov 02, 2014 3:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equal weight vs. capitalization weight between world regions
Replies: 18
Views: 1294

Re: Being laid off soon: Thinking of changing my AA

What does your investment plan that you prepared earlier say? Mine specifies a target allocation for my anticipated retirement year and a glide path to get to that allocation. However, even if it's my plan, I know that I'm not in control of all life's inputs. The plan has to be flexible to accomodat...
by asset_chaos
Sat Nov 01, 2014 4:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Being laid off soon: Thinking of changing my AA
Replies: 11
Views: 1359

Re: Total World Fund - Under appreciated?

Non-US investors ought to benefit the most from a total world stock investment, but non-US investors, by-and-large, least appreciate indexing, so by extension are under appreciating a total world stock index fund. If your domestic market is 10% of the global stock market, which is the next largest a...
by asset_chaos
Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total World Fund - Under appreciated?
Replies: 26
Views: 3043

Re: If holding cash, do you want a Great Depression?

If you're projecting or hoping for a new Depression, wouldn't long term treasury bonds be the investment of choice, to take advantage of the monumental deflation?
by asset_chaos
Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If holding cash, do you want a Great Depression?
Replies: 50
Views: 4166

Re: Capital gains in taxable; DFA / Vanguard

There's nothing wrong with that portfolio or the funds in it per se . But, as you've changed your mind to want more simplicity---and that's a good thing to have---it's doesn't fulfill that new goal. But if it were me, I would not value simplicity sufficiently that I would pay $27k in capital gains t...
by asset_chaos
Sun Oct 26, 2014 6:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Capital gains in taxable; DFA / Vanguard
Replies: 5
Views: 790

Re: What is the recommended amount of international holdings

Above zero and less than or equal to global market weight would cover all reasonable recommendations for an American investor. Place your investment dollars wherever in that band that keeps you comfortable and unconcerned whenever non-US stocks do better or worse than US stocks for some time. I thin...
by asset_chaos
Thu Oct 23, 2014 6:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the recommended amount of international holdings?
Replies: 15
Views: 1728

Re: Fundamental Index Funds?

I thought all the fundamental index funds were just a roundabout way to value exposure, even if the index sponsors say otherwise. But value is a risk factor: the investor can take some more risk than the market and expect to get some more return than the market. And maybe extra return is worth while...
by asset_chaos
Mon Oct 20, 2014 2:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fundamental Index Funds?
Replies: 14
Views: 1412

Re: 401K changing Pimco Tot Ret to VG Int Term Bond Index. O

Not because the percentage of Treasuries is such-and-such, but because it's fixed at 50%, whereas TBM will drift over time, albeit slowly, depending on government policies. I don't think that's exactly correct. I see that on the fund profile page the product summary says "This index fund offer...
by asset_chaos
Mon Oct 20, 2014 2:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K changing Pimco Tot Ret to VG Int Term Bond Index. OK?
Replies: 17
Views: 1312

Re: want to live foreign country

I think you'll have to narrow down what part of the world you're interested in before you can get concrete advice. I moved to Australia, though not to the tropical part, for work a number of years ago, and Oz has everything on your list; although, cheap may be debatable now. My residency visa was sp...
by asset_chaos
Sat Oct 18, 2014 2:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: want to live foreign country
Replies: 10
Views: 1393

Re: New to Investing, Based in Hong Kong

What I am reading so far is US centred – I am Hong Kong based. If I invest in say the 2nd grader funds, will I be subject to US taxes/costs or local taxes/costs? A real newbie question I know. You most likely do not want to invest through brokerages in the US. You'll probably be better off finding ...
by asset_chaos
Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to Investing, Based in Hong Kong
Replies: 54
Views: 3240

Re: Does your ROTH hold risky or stable items?

Por que no los dos? I keep half small value and half intermediate TIPs in the Roth (although, I wouldn't say intermediate bonds are exactly stable and without risk). A balanced allocation in the Roth also serves an ancilliary behavioral purpose. If I ever feel the urge to 'just do something' to the ...
by asset_chaos
Mon Oct 13, 2014 10:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your ROTH hold risky or stable items?
Replies: 56
Views: 3554

Re: if you wouldn't buy Total Bond Market now, then when and

I invest in Intermediate bond index fund for more or less idiosyncratic reasons and in Intermediate tax exempt for more solid reasons instead of total bond market. If I had a tax deferred account where total bond was the only indexed bond fund choice, I would be perfectly content to invest my bond a...
by asset_chaos
Mon Oct 13, 2014 6:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: if you wouldn't buy Total Bond Market now, then when and why
Replies: 7
Views: 1602

Re: Should your AA change based on World Events?

There are about 9 bllion world events every day. Which world events will prompt you to change your portfolio? Will the democracy protests in Hong Kong topple the communist dictatorship or fizzle out? Will the reforms of its new prime minister enfeeble or invigorate India? Will Brazil pick a new pres...
by asset_chaos
Mon Oct 13, 2014 3:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should your AA change based on World Events?
Replies: 22
Views: 1469

Re: Investing in the Netherlands

Can you clarify if you're a Dutch citizen? It will probably make a difference for the investing options that make sense for you.
by asset_chaos
Sat Oct 11, 2014 5:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in the Netherlands
Replies: 9
Views: 1039

Re: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?

Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value? First off, there's extra risk. I think the evidence supports the conclusion that the extra risk is compensated with extra return, as long as your extra costs for tilt are small enough. (My elaboration of that point here http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic....
by asset_chaos
Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Wouldn't You Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 52
Views: 3189

Re: Total world stock index

For the OP's question, I say no, total world stock index is not too expensive. And I put my money where my opinion is by having total world as my family's core stock investment.
by asset_chaos
Sat Oct 04, 2014 6:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total world stock index
Replies: 19
Views: 2709

Re: [Poll] Eurozone Investors and Home Bias

On equities for a Eurozone investor it is especially important to diversify globally. The Eurozone is c. 20% of world equity markets I think? Vanguard's total world stock index fund says Europe is about 23%. But to get the Eurozone you have to subtract the UK, Switzerland, Sweden and other countrie...
by asset_chaos
Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Eurozone Investors and Home Bias
Replies: 5
Views: 448

Re: Portfolio Advice/Questions for a Swede/European

Congratulations on taking the time to learn about investing matters. Aquiring the discipline to save, learn and make a financial plan means you are more likely to secure your financial future. Your choice of stock:bond ratio seems reasonable for your age and circumstances. I'll assume that you have ...
by asset_chaos
Sat Sep 27, 2014 4:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Advice/Questions for a Swede/European
Replies: 39
Views: 1698

Re: Does the McClellan Oscillator hold any merit?

I get more use from the Van der Pol oscillator.
by asset_chaos
Wed Sep 24, 2014 2:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the McClellan Oscillator hold any merit?
Replies: 15
Views: 1117

Re: Benefits to remote work, being EXPAT, etc.

4 weeks annual leave. Have to file both US tax returns and Australian tax returns. Australian tax is individual, not family based, so separate tax filings for you and spouse, but two tax-free thresholds. Australian fiscal year is July-june. Use the ATO's tax software; it's pretty good and free. Welc...
by asset_chaos
Tue Sep 23, 2014 5:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Benefits to remote work, being EXPAT, etc.
Replies: 4
Views: 493

Re: Very lost on random inherited bonds in portfolio

I don't know what you should do, but I'll tell you what I did and why in a similar situation. The bonds I inherited were all older and had coupons noticeably above then current market rates; the bonds were all mortgage and corporate, so all had some kind of credit risk. The total value was not insig...
by asset_chaos
Wed Sep 17, 2014 1:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very lost on random inherited bonds in portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 655

Re: Feeling smug until 10 year ROR from Vanguard

Drat. I just looked and my personal performance calculation at Vanguard is still limited to max 5 years.
by asset_chaos
Sat Sep 13, 2014 12:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Feeling smug until 10 year ROR from Vanguard
Replies: 81
Views: 7957

Re: Blog:Vanguard UK cuts fees on index tracker funds and ET

The Australian LifeStrategy funds have, from memory, 30% of stocks in the Australian market. I don't know how Vanguard decides these things. I suspect it's a marketing decision about what they think local investors will like/tolerate. Maybe it's dressed up with some backward looking efficient fronti...
by asset_chaos
Sun Aug 31, 2014 4:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog:Vanguard UK cuts fees on index tracker funds and ETFs
Replies: 2
Views: 434

Re: Will Vanguard fire me if I retire overseas? (Schwab bett

I've lived overseas for most of the last 20 years, and Vanguard certainly knows I do. I have not yet faced any restrictions on operating my Vanguard accounts. Of course, rules and policies may change in the future but no problem so far. Have you asked Vanguard what restrictions, if any, you may face...
by asset_chaos
Sat Aug 30, 2014 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will Vanguard fire me if I retire overseas? (Schwab better?)
Replies: 14
Views: 2246

Re: Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers

Could this all be happening because of the strong bull market? I wonder if people are jumping on board seeing that S&P 500 doubled its value during the last 5 years (actually ~2.5x w/ dividends re-invested). Will they stay on board when the next big correction comes? Hi Erhan, That is an intere...
by asset_chaos
Fri Aug 22, 2014 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers
Replies: 70
Views: 7394

Re: When did you hear of Bill Miller and Legg Mason Value Tr

I think I first read about him and his streak on this forum from someone posting on how the streak was over or looked soon to be over. If the streak ended 2005, then my first notice of Miller and the streak would have been around 2006 perhaps.
by asset_chaos
Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did you hear of Bill Miller and Legg Mason Value Trust?
Replies: 32
Views: 2522

Re: Currency risk for australian investor

Well done on having thought, researched and made a financial plan. You should be mildly concerned about risk from currency moves, but currency risk is by no means the only risk of home bias. The other major risk of home bias investing, particularly if your home is a small market, is sector concentra...
by asset_chaos
Fri Aug 22, 2014 6:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Currency risk for australian investor
Replies: 6
Views: 448
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