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Re: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"

Excellent thread. I have been tracking small cap stocks for a long time, and one thing that seems to be taking place is a big separation in performance between U.S. small caps, and international small caps. Check out the performance for Vanguard's VTMSX (tax managed small cap - tracks the S&P Sm...
by animule
Tue Dec 02, 2014 8:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"
Replies: 99
Views: 7222

Re: Tax consequences of UGMA account transfer to former mino

Also be aware that a student in her graduation year may have a marginal tax rate on LTCG as high as 41% if she happens to be in the Lifetime Learning Credit phaseout and NY, so the timing of a sale should be considered carefully. The account is for my daughter and she did graduate from college this...
by animule
Fri Oct 31, 2014 6:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax consequences of UGMA account transfer to former minor
Replies: 13
Views: 476

Re: Tax consequences of UGMA account transfer to former mino

Thanks, Livesoft. Yes, taxes have been paid on dividends and prior distributions - that went on my daughter's tax return. The sale amounts were low enough not to trigger the kiddie tax. I just thought a fund needed a Roth or IRA wrapper to ensure a "transfer" without any tax consequences. ...
by animule
Thu Oct 30, 2014 9:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax consequences of UGMA account transfer to former minor
Replies: 13
Views: 476

Tax consequences of UGMA account transfer to former minor

Hi Everyone, I have a UGMA account for my daughter where I am the custodian. My daughter is over the age of 21 and there is some money left over in the fund after paying college expenses. I'd like to remove my name from the account since she is no longer a minor. I called Vanguard and they sent me s...
by animule
Thu Oct 30, 2014 8:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax consequences of UGMA account transfer to former minor
Replies: 13
Views: 476

Re: Ham and Egger's Theory? [Buy small cap when under-perfor

Small cap has over-performed for the past half-decade or longer, so this recent under-performance barely chips away at those earlier gains. To put this into perspective, I am aiming for an asset allocation with about 12% of total retirement funds dedicated to small cap in a 66% stock, 34% bond portf...
by animule
Sat Oct 25, 2014 11:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ham and Egger's Theory? [Buy Whatever Cap Size is lagging) ]
Replies: 38
Views: 3319

Re: Local college invests 56% of assets in "alternatives"

Update - "Pension Funds Eye Reducing Hedge-Fund Investments." http://online.wsj.com/articles/pension-funds-eye-reducing-hedge-fund-investments-1413762698 Can universities be far behind? Pension-fund managers across the U.S. are rethinking their investments in hedge funds in the wake of a r...
by animule
Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Local college invests 56% of assets in "alternatives"
Replies: 29
Views: 2870

Re: i bonds or EE bonds?

Another point on EE bonds that may not have been mentioned here. They provide better protection during deflation than I-bonds would. True, I-bonds would not lose purchasing power, but they would gain almost nothing. Deflation is something that few people seem to be worried about; maybe more should. ...
by animule
Fri Jul 25, 2014 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: i bonds or EE bonds?
Replies: 46
Views: 6539

Re: Bubble watch: automobile loans

New York Times article adds additional quantification to growing bubble in automobile loans. http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/07/19/in-a-subprime-bubble-for-used-cars-unfit-borrowers-pay-sky-high-rates/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0 Auto loans to people with tarnished credit have risen more tha...
by animule
Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubble watch: automobile loans
Replies: 17
Views: 2006

Re: "Chip" credit card for foreign travel

Thought I would update my experience with using credit cards in Portugal, just having gotten back from a trip there. I didn't have to use the chip credit card at all, but did have to use a PIN number for the non-chip credit card. This was required every time I used the card, at every place. I'm not ...
by animule
Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Chip" credit card for foreign travel
Replies: 98
Views: 13896

Re: i bonds or EE bonds?

I am not sure if anyone mentioned another big advantage with EE bonds versus I-bonds. They are certain to double in 20 years, and make a great "guaranteed" pension if you ladder them so that you can cash some in every year. For the growing percentage of the population that does not have a ...
by animule
Thu Jul 24, 2014 8:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: i bonds or EE bonds?
Replies: 46
Views: 6539

Re: Bubble Watch: Credit cards for "riskiest customers"

If they compare the stats against 2008, then I am not worried. But if the stats are similar to 2006's, then I might be worried. I wonder why the reporter didn't show the stats before 2007. The credit card article may have been missing this information. But today, The Wall Street Journal updated the...
by animule
Tue Jul 01, 2014 6:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubble Watch: Credit cards for "riskiest customers"
Replies: 8
Views: 816

Bubble Watch: Credit cards for "riskiest customers"

Saw this in the news over the past few days and wonder if this is another sign that credit is becoming too "easy," planting the seeds for the next recession. http://online.wsj.com/articles/credit-card-lenders-pursue-riskier-borrowers-1403807505 Cards Issued to Subprime Borrowers Rose 39% i...
by animule
Mon Jun 30, 2014 7:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubble Watch: Credit cards for "riskiest customers"
Replies: 8
Views: 816

Re: Bubble watch: automobile loans

A couple of other points to note here. Stretching out the term for new car loans means, by definition, that the market is attracting a more marginal and financially stressed buyer. This is almost the same scenario we saw for subprime mortgages. The last couple of years of the subprime mortgage boom ...
by animule
Mon Jun 09, 2014 6:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubble watch: automobile loans
Replies: 17
Views: 2006

Re: Bubble watch: automobile loans

Car loans + student loans = two loan bubbles.

Yes, it's easy to repo a car. But if easy credit disappears, how much collateral do you actually have?

It's hard to repossess a college class, or a college education.

It would be interesting to see the numbers on these two loan areas, combined.
by animule
Sun Jun 08, 2014 10:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubble watch: automobile loans
Replies: 17
Views: 2006

Bubble watch: automobile loans

The search for the next bubble may have ended. The car market is looking more than a little frothy. http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2014/06/08/wscs-are-americans-filling-up-on-too-much-debt/10166869/ A new report finds that auto loans are becoming more supercharged than ever as f...
by animule
Sun Jun 08, 2014 10:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubble watch: automobile loans
Replies: 17
Views: 2006

Blind sided by IRS Audit of 2012 return: 529 plan earnings

I just received a letter from the IRS on my 2012 tax return on "proposed changes to my return" which is essentially an audit result. The IRS ran the numbers and determined I owe just under $2k in taxes. One mistake appears to be mine - unreported income from my wife that will require furth...
by animule
Wed Jun 04, 2014 10:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Blind sided by IRS Audit of 2012 return: 529 plan earnings
Replies: 2
Views: 596

Re: USA Today inadvertently makes case for EE bonds

Nisiprius, I enjoy your posts. I ran across something in Nassim Taleb's book Antifragile that I thought you would appreciate as it speaks to stock risk. I'll quote: ..."they take the worst historical recession, the worst war, the worst historical move in interest rates, or the worst point in un...
by animule
Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: USA Today inadvertently makes case for EE bonds
Replies: 13
Views: 2042

USA Today inadvertently makes case for EE bonds

Interesting article from USA Today on investing lessons over the past 14 years. The return of the S&P 500 over that time period was roughly what you can get right now from a Series EE savings bond with zero return risk, held to maturity since these bonds are guaranteed to double over 20 years. h...
by animule
Sat Mar 15, 2014 10:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: USA Today inadvertently makes case for EE bonds
Replies: 13
Views: 2042

Re: Small Cap Tilting

VTMSX is different in one important regard.

It is based on the S&P 600 which requires a company to have at least 3 years of profitable results.

Because of this the fund did not load up on dot com garbage during the tech boom.

This offered some downside protection vs other small cap indexes.
by animule
Sun Mar 09, 2014 1:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Tilting
Replies: 84
Views: 9564

Re: Layover in Amsterdam

Spent about a week there a couple of years ago with our family. We did most of the museums while there. The one I liked the best was the Dutch Resistance Museum which covered the World War II period. Fascinating. It's near the zoo. And take one of the canal tour boats. It's great to see the place fr...
by animule
Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Layover in Amsterdam
Replies: 23
Views: 1126

Local college invests 56% of assets in "alternatives"

Local newspaper just wrote an article on the University of Rochester's endowment. I thought it was interesting that the endowment is so aggressively invested in "alternative" investments. According to the summary page on the plan, it is 56% invested in "alternative" investments l...
by animule
Mon Feb 24, 2014 8:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Local college invests 56% of assets in "alternatives"
Replies: 29
Views: 2870

Re: LED lightbulbs

Bought several Cree bulbs at Home Depot in October for a home office. Use them in a basement office on a dimmer switch.

First one just burned out. Think the bulb has a 10 year guarantee; but need to mail it back to Cree for a replacement.

Pain in the rear.

Hang onto your receipts.
by animule
Sat Feb 22, 2014 10:37 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LED lightbulbs
Replies: 196
Views: 17114

Re: What are reliable refrigerator brands these days?

Bought a Whirlpool about four years ago; model has refrigerator on bottom, freezer on top. Freezer said to be the "most efficient" unit on the market with the lowest energy costs. Thing was a lemon from the get-go. Spent about 5-6 days using the garage as the refrigerator/freezer after it ...
by animule
Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are reliable refrigerator brands these days?
Replies: 51
Views: 10357

Ric Edelman "times have changed" claim

Caught some of the Ric Edelman show on the radio over the weekend and he had an extensive discussion on investing today, referencing John Bogle. Ric said that "times had changed" and that "age in bonds" was old fashioned, and that even somebody of the stature of John Bogle is &qu...
by animule
Tue Jan 21, 2014 8:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ric Edelman "times have changed" claim
Replies: 24
Views: 3801

Re: Why bonds within your asset allocation?

Regarding the 5% "guarantee," this is the sort of thing that Bernie Madoff promised in his fund several years ago. I agree on the "red flags" comment. A 5% guarantee in today's ultra low interest rate environment doesn't sound right. You need to understand what this fund is reall...
by animule
Fri Dec 20, 2013 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why bonds within your asset allocation?
Replies: 27
Views: 2996

Re: FINRA fines Oppenheimer for overpricing muni bond deals

Oppenheimer has a history of playing fast and loose with the facts. Earlier this year, many of their state-specific mutual funds took a major hit when it was disclosed they contained huge helpings of Puerto Rican bonds. http://www.forbes.com/sites/jakezamansky/2013/10/28/the-puerto-rican-bond-plot-t...
by animule
Sun Dec 15, 2013 8:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FINRA fines Oppenheimer for overpricing muni bond deals
Replies: 4
Views: 485

Re: Anybody buying EE bonds these days

Get an extra 0.5% for going 15 years out on the curve? Plus a brutal EW penalty? Seems like a bad deal to me. Only benefit to EE is tax deferral. You are assuming that rates will go up in the future. Millions of Japanese investors thought the same thing; many of those investors did not see this hap...
by animule
Sun Dec 08, 2013 12:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anybody buying EE bonds these days
Replies: 47
Views: 3468

Re: Market "melt up" and the Airplane Game

More evidence of froth in the US market, courtesy of Bloomberg Business Week: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-11-27/subprime-loans-are-boosting-car-sales As the fifth anniversary of the Federal Reserve’s policy of keeping interest rates near zero approaches, the market for subprime borrowi...
by animule
Sat Nov 30, 2013 4:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market "melt up" and the Airplane Game
Replies: 71
Views: 6479

Re: Wood burning stoves in New England

Let's not forget that wood is a renewable resource as opposed to fossil fuels. One upon a time 80 and 90's fuel oil was economical also. Natural gas is now but that will be short lived. Large industrial users are converting from oil to NG and there is the exporting of NG to Europe in process due to...
by animule
Mon Nov 25, 2013 7:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wood burning stoves in New England
Replies: 88
Views: 5038

Capital One Quicksilver: 1.5% reward, thoughts?

Anyone out there have any experience with the Capital One Quicksilver credit card? 1.5% reward on all purchases, no limits. Outside of the 5% off on gas Penfed card and the 3% off on groceries American Express Blue Cash card, I don't have anything above 1%. This sounds attractive. I have three other...
by animule
Sun Nov 24, 2013 3:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital One Quicksilver: 1.5% reward, thoughts?
Replies: 91
Views: 13135

Re: Oppenheimer misleads muni bond investors

The current muni bond problems at Oppenheimer rhyme with the same issues many of the firm's bond funds had in 2008. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-37640185/oppenheimers-bond-fund-blowup-worse-than-you-think/ Oppenheimer's Core Bond fund -- presumably suited to serve as an investor's core bon...
by animule
Mon Oct 21, 2013 7:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Oppenheimer misleads muni bond investors
Replies: 10
Views: 1316

Re: Oppenheimer misleads muni bond investors

It gets better. Oppenheimer took a $2 billion line of credit out so they would not have to dump all of their Puerto Rican bond holdings at once. Brilliant. Instead of six-shooters, their courage is fortified by a $2 billion line of credit provided by a group of lenders led by Citibank that allows th...
by animule
Sun Oct 20, 2013 9:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Oppenheimer misleads muni bond investors
Replies: 10
Views: 1316

Oppenheimer misleads muni bond investors

Check out this gem from Oppenheimer as the fund family loaded up several of its state specific municipal bond funds with Puerto Rican bonds. Not exactly sure what part of Massachusetts that Puerto Rico is domiciled in. Hard to believe this practice is legal. Would be interesting to know if any Vangu...
by animule
Sun Oct 20, 2013 9:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Oppenheimer misleads muni bond investors
Replies: 10
Views: 1316

Re: "Chip" credit card for foreign travel

Have to include my experiences here. Traveled to London for work in July - the UK had always been okay with regular non chip and pin credit card. Not this time. Turned into a huge pain in the rear. It was hit or miss being able to use the regular credit card. Even the hotel - Holiday Inn Express - c...
by animule
Sun Sep 22, 2013 9:37 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Chip" credit card for foreign travel
Replies: 98
Views: 13896

Re: Time to abandon a global portfolio?

If anything, the paper is a contrarian indicator. You would most likely see articles like this, and sentiment like this, after a long period of underperformance by international stocks. Seasoned investors know that this is often a sign of an asset class that may have room to run. This year alone, Va...
by animule
Sun Aug 18, 2013 2:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to abandon a global portfolio?
Replies: 21
Views: 2626

Re: Wall Street Journal Subscriptions on Ebay question

Been dreading the whole Wall Street Journal renewal scenario for months, given how much chatter and complaints there have been at WSJ.com on $600 plus renewals.

Sprang for the $130 one year subscription a short time ago on Ebay.

Subscription started two or three days later.

Happy as a clam.
by animule
Sun Jul 28, 2013 6:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wall Street Journal Subscriptions on Ebay question
Replies: 18
Views: 3658

Re: All Stocks Anyone?

So how is that "100% stock" portfolio holding up these days?

Interesting to see if any views have changed over the last 10 days.
by animule
Fri Jun 21, 2013 6:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All Stocks Anyone?
Replies: 64
Views: 6739

Re: All Stocks Anyone?

Someday, somebody is going to do an academic study of bogleheads posts as a way of signaling market tops and bottoms. Any time you see these "I'm 100% stocks" or "All Stocks Anyone?" posts as well as the "Do You Really Need Bonds?" threads, you know you may be near an i...
by animule
Sun Jun 02, 2013 10:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All Stocks Anyone?
Replies: 64
Views: 6739

Re: 100% equities, anyone?

Age 50, wife 50 too. House paid off. Three kids with one college education pretty much paid off. Net worth about $1.2 million w/o home value figured in. 68% stocks, 32% bonds. Bonds split about 50/50 in Ibonds/EEbonds/Stable value and bond index funds. Have shifted some of wife's funds into target d...
by animule
Sat May 11, 2013 9:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% equities, anyone?
Replies: 149
Views: 9957

Re: Market "melt up" and the Airplane Game

Another interesting data point to note, reflecting the growing number of car loans made to sub-prime buyers. Article titled "Americans are borrowing again but still less than before the freeze" in The Wall Street Journal, May 7, 2013 (type exact title of article in Google News to find it):...
by animule
Sat May 11, 2013 9:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market "melt up" and the Airplane Game
Replies: 71
Views: 6479

Re: Market "melt up" and the Airplane Game

More interesting stats on margin debt suggesting a more speculative market: http://www.forbes.com/sites/bradlamensdorf/2013/05/08/money-where-the-mouth-is/ The NYSE recently announced that margin debt amounted to $379.5 billion in March. That’s the second-highest figure on record, behind only the $3...
by animule
Fri May 10, 2013 7:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market "melt up" and the Airplane Game
Replies: 71
Views: 6479

Negative interest rates in Europe coming?

Heard this on Bob Brinker's Moneytalk show earlier today, and there are a few references to it today on the internet. The European Central Bank is considering negative interest rates; essentially charging banks a fee to safeguard their money. It appears we are in uncharted territory with this. http:...
by animule
Sun May 05, 2013 9:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative interest rates in Europe coming?
Replies: 5
Views: 922

Bubble watch: dividend paying stocks

When the investment world is so enamored of dividend paying stocks to the point that bond funds actually ditch bonds to hold them, then maybe all this talk of a 'bond bubble" is misplaced and maybe the real bubble is in dividend paying stocks. "Bond Funds Running Low on... Bonds" http...
by animule
Thu May 02, 2013 10:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bubble watch: dividend paying stocks
Replies: 1
Views: 548

Re: Article: EE Bonds are the best Long Term bond

I've always felt that EE bonds are dismissed a little too quickly by many bogleheads. A lot of posters here seem to think that EE bonds basically have no value and that I bonds are the only savings bond worth having, but the reality is that we have no idea what inflation and interest rates will be ...
by animule
Sat Apr 20, 2013 8:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: EE Bonds are the best Long Term bond
Replies: 77
Views: 5418

Re: Tiny down payments for home mortgages are back

I just don't see an increase in the availability of 5 to 10% down mortgages as a wholesale invitation to moral hazard. Not everyone's a chiseler. Or a high roller. Young people starting out, for instance, might need the 'leg up' that a 5% down mortgage provides. It certainly helped us 40 years ago ...
by animule
Wed Apr 17, 2013 7:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tiny down payments for home mortgages are back
Replies: 25
Views: 3752

Re: Tiny down payments for home mortgages are back

No money down mortages are also making a comeback... http://www.cutimes.com/2013/03/27/no-money-down-mortgages-stage-a-comeback?ref=hp Two credit unions, NASA Federal Credit Union and Navy Federal Credit Union, are offering members mortgages without requiring any down payment or mortgage insurance. ...
by animule
Sun Apr 14, 2013 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tiny down payments for home mortgages are back
Replies: 25
Views: 3752

Tiny down payments for home mortgages are back

Down payments for new mortgages are creeping down. Check out the growth in the number of home mortgages that have less than 20% down. http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/04/14/lower-down-payment-loans-more-common/2075095/ In another sign of the housing market's brightening outlook, mor...
by animule
Sun Apr 14, 2013 11:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tiny down payments for home mortgages are back
Replies: 25
Views: 3752

Re: Market "melt up" and the Airplane Game

More evidence that margin debt is creeeping up... Need any more proof that US stock investors are positively giddy? NYSE says margin debt jumped 10% in January alone to $364 billion, 32% higher than a year earlier and the third-highest ever, trailing just June and July 2007. http://blogs.wsj.com/mar...
by animule
Wed Mar 13, 2013 11:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market "melt up" and the Airplane Game
Replies: 71
Views: 6479

Re: Market "melt up" and the Airplane Game

From today's Wall Street Journal (February 23, 2013)... http://stream.wsj.com/story/latest-headlines/SS-2-63399/SS-2-175265/ Margin debt - borrowing that individual investors use to juice up returns on their brokerage accounts - exceeds $330 billion, up 24% in 12 months. The return of the S&P 50...
by animule
Sat Feb 23, 2013 11:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market "melt up" and the Airplane Game
Replies: 71
Views: 6479

Re: Market "melt up" and the Airplane Game

Hi Keith,

Here's another chart offering some food for thought. If you're comfortable with this, good for you. That makes one of us.

Image
by animule
Sat Feb 23, 2013 10:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market "melt up" and the Airplane Game
Replies: 71
Views: 6479
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