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Re: Update on the ascent of CAPE

The PE 10 May not be as high as it seems. I think Larry has commented on this before. Not to mention that it is not actionable and has low correlation with future returns. Stay the course.
by am
Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Update on the ascent of CAPE
Replies: 1
Views: 443

Re: Boglehead family vacations

8 and 10 years old.
by am
Tue Nov 11, 2014 9:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Boglehead family vacations
Replies: 42
Views: 3069

Boglehead family vacations

Any recommendations for a planned spring break vacation for 5-7 days with 2 kids? We looked at club med in Florida and Disney cruise and they are real expensive 8-10k (with airfare).
by am
Tue Nov 11, 2014 8:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Boglehead family vacations
Replies: 42
Views: 3069

Re: International Stock Index Potential

Total international has better expected return than total US. There are countries in there with PEs in the single digits. If conditions in foreign lands is better than expected (not great), than strong returns should follow. I am in low 40% for international and would go higher if I could,
by am
Fri Nov 07, 2014 6:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock Index Potential
Replies: 17
Views: 1617

Re: Job advice - academic physician career move?

In some specialties, going from academics to private practice or from a popular congested area to an undesirable area can lead to a doubling or more of salary.
by am
Tue Nov 04, 2014 10:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job advice - academic physician career move?
Replies: 35
Views: 2886

Re: Job advice - academic physician career move?

Not sure why you would move? Your post makes it seem like there are few upsides. If you are a rad, than you are lucky to have options given the state of the field currently. You also know that you will likely be trading one set of negatives for another (perhaps worse).
by am
Tue Nov 04, 2014 8:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job advice - academic physician career move?
Replies: 35
Views: 2886

Re: What's worrying Vanguard's CEO

I respect his opinion but I am not sure why we place any weight on predictions being bogleheads? We have all seen how wrong these can be even from prize winning economists.
by am
Mon Nov 03, 2014 5:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's worrying Vanguard's CEO
Replies: 14
Views: 2767

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund (VGPMX)

Why not etf GREK if you are itching to be a contrarian? With a country PE of 3, how could you go wrong? :wink:
by am
Mon Nov 03, 2014 4:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund (VGPMX)
Replies: 6
Views: 817

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund

If you rebalanced and had nerves of steel and tons of patience, you would do better. Not sure why someone would want to complicate things for negligible portfolio benefit however?
by am
Sun Nov 02, 2014 3:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund
Replies: 47
Views: 3410

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund

Sure would be nice to have one of those crazy run ups. Did the last one coincide with rising gold prices?
by am
Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund
Replies: 47
Views: 3410

Re: Job Satisfaction and Risk Tolerance

Job satisfaction is low and I am fairly early in accumulation with no debt. My risk tolerance is high at 70% stocks which for me is the sweet spot right now. I need another 10-15 years of current savings rate and decent market returns to get to a basic level of financial independence. I think that a...
by am
Sat Nov 01, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job Satisfaction and Risk Tolerance
Replies: 9
Views: 911

Re: Shiller CAPE Ratio

Interesting chart. Seems like increasing foreign exposure for long term investors would be wise. Is there a Greek etf? Seems like a good place to place some speculative money at such a low PE.
by am
Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Shiller CAPE Ratio
Replies: 3
Views: 498

Re: Any contrarians for commodity futures?

Poor returns for a while, funds at all time lows, oil dropping, few to no threads on here regarding adding CCFs. Seems to me like a strong buy signal. Maybe one of the few cheap assets? Would be a good time to buy if this makes sense for your portfolio.
by am
Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any contrarians for commodity futures?
Replies: 6
Views: 489

Any contrarians for commodity futures?

Anyone investing with funds like Pimco commodity futures fund being near all time lows? Maybe with the 5% of portfolio used for speculation?
by am
Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any contrarians for commodity futures?
Replies: 6
Views: 489

Re: Career Advice for an Unhappy Young Doctor?

There are few easily attainable non clinical options that pay well for your average doctor without major connections. This is based on personal experience as a doctor who has explored this. As far as happiness, most other professional fields have a lot of dissatisfaction. There have been discussions...
by am
Tue Oct 28, 2014 10:04 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Advice for an Unhappy Young Doctor?
Replies: 116
Views: 13260

Re: Do you dream about retirement?

I think about retirement and financial independence daily. It is almost an obsession. Did not think it would end up this way when I was younger and In training to be a physician. But many negative changes to my field and being tired of the constant stress and assembly line mentality has led to this....
by am
Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you dream about retirement?
Replies: 91
Views: 6568

Re: "I've had it" at work - how often

I am in medicine and good to know I am not alone. The constant pressure to do more work per unit time for less money. The loss of autonomy. The loss of job stability. The awful job market in my area leading to less career choices. I always think that all this stress, long training and long painful w...
by am
Sun Oct 19, 2014 4:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "I've had it" at work - how often
Replies: 151
Views: 12634

Re: illinois 529 allocation question

Do you think the age based index portfolio is reasonable?
by am
Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: illinois 529 allocation question
Replies: 3
Views: 231

illinois 529 allocation question

Here is a link to their allocation options: https://www.brightstartsavings.com/doc/Bright_Start_Direct_Fee_Allocation_Worksheet.pdf I use the age based index option. My oldest child is in the 10-12 portfolio about 9 years from entering college. Seems like the allocations are too conservative? I am c...
by am
Sun Oct 12, 2014 8:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: illinois 529 allocation question
Replies: 3
Views: 231

Re: Unemployment insurance question

How about if you are an employee of an organization?
by am
Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unemployment insurance question
Replies: 3
Views: 274

Unemployment insurance question

If my 5 year contract is not renewed, will I qualify for unemployment insurance? Do they look at assets, imterest/dividends for determining payments?
by am
Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unemployment insurance question
Replies: 3
Views: 274

Simple penalty question about 401k/IRA

If you take an early withdrawal on IRAs or 401k, you pay income tax due and 10% penalty. Is the 10% penalty for the entire amount? You withdraw 50k and pay 5k + income tax on 50k?
by am
Mon Oct 06, 2014 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Simple penalty question about 401k/IRA
Replies: 3
Views: 289

Re: VXUS and Muni Bonds tax efficiency

Is total world stock from Vanguard more efficient that total us or international?
by am
Sun Sep 28, 2014 3:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VXUS and Muni Bonds tax efficiency
Replies: 9
Views: 776

Re: Vanguard ETF and fund

For some reason, I could not upgrade to the new combined brokerage and mutual fund accounts using vanguard.com/accountupgrade. Is this only available for some the account owners?
by am
Sun Sep 28, 2014 8:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard ETF and fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1133

Re: HSA payroll deductions not being applied to my HSA

If you are in a large company, are there rules/laws as far as how quickly money gets into the HSA? And if a problem is not solved in a timely manner, what should you do? Complain to manager of the manager or keep waiting?
by am
Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA payroll deductions not being applied to my HSA
Replies: 7
Views: 639

Re: How to achieve a balance between "saving" and "living"?!

No one can know for sure where the balance between consumption and savings should be since we do not know our lifespan. As Bogleheads and prodigious savers, we assume the best. A long productive life and good returns. The alternative for me at least would be worse. If I did know my lifespan and it w...
by am
Sat Sep 20, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to achieve a balance between "saving" and "living"?!
Replies: 64
Views: 6737

Re: Slow iPad mini with iOS 8 upgrade

Called Apple support. Said many people are calling in with similar issues. The support tech told me that after the update, the ipad is restored and it can take 4 hours per gig. While ipad is restored, the system can be slow. I will see tomorrow if this is accurate.
by am
Sat Sep 20, 2014 10:09 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Slow iPad mini with iOS 8 upgrade
Replies: 10
Views: 1647

Slow iPad mini with iOS 8 upgrade

Anyone else having this issue? If so are there any solutions? Perhaps even a downgrade?
by am
Fri Sep 19, 2014 11:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Slow iPad mini with iOS 8 upgrade
Replies: 10
Views: 1647

International Bonds a strategy for rising rates?

Saw this article on the Vanguard site today. Is this a good enough reason to include 20% or so? After reviewing the research paper Vanguard published, I was left with more complexity for minimal benefit.
by am
Tue Sep 16, 2014 5:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard on International Bonds
Replies: 5
Views: 491

Re: Do I need to hold my emergency fund in cash?

Consider a short to intermed. Muni bond fund instead of cash for part of your emergency fund.
by am
Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I need to hold my emergency fund in cash?
Replies: 29
Views: 3421

Re: Emergency fund question

1st month checking
2-18th months AMEX savings and Ally CD
18+ months intermed. Term muni
If need more than this have taxable stock funds

I sleep better at night with this much liquid reserves.
by am
Sun Sep 14, 2014 8:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency fund question
Replies: 6
Views: 660

House value percentiles in states and US?

There are charts for personal income. Just curious if there are similar statistics available for house values? Say you own a 600k house, where does this fall in terms of state and us percentiles? Would also be interesting to see what percent of people at varying values own their home without mortgage.
by am
Sun Sep 07, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House value percentiles in states and US?
Replies: 2
Views: 434

Re: So far, so good? Vanguard Total International Bond

Good returns do not justify inclusion in a portfolio. There is still no good reason for most investors to include this in their portfolio. See older discussions.
by am
Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So far, so good? Vanguard Total International Bond
Replies: 45
Views: 5871

Re: Is it me, or are "collectibles" worthless in 2014?

I aquired some baseball card wax boxes from 1982-1985 years back mostly for nostalgic purposes. Love to see them sitting on my shelf. Brings back memories and also makes me feel kinda old. They ranged from about 50 dollars for 82 Fleer to about 200 for 84 donruss. Seems like they have appreciated a ...
by am
Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it me, or are "collectibles" worthless in 2014?
Replies: 79
Views: 6691

Re: Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers

Anyone find it troubling that indexing is becoming so popular? Wonder if this will somehow change the "market" if there are fewer stock pickers?
by am
Thu Aug 21, 2014 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Pour Into Vanguard, Eschewing Stock Pickers
Replies: 70
Views: 7288

Recommendation for ear buds/in ear headphones

Tons of choices on Amazon. Want something real comfortable to wear for long periods with great sound while I work out and go for walks. This is for my Ipod. Thanks.
by am
Fri Aug 15, 2014 7:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommendation for ear buds/in ear headphones
Replies: 18
Views: 810

Re: Do you diversify into international bond?

Minimal to no benefit in the past with added complexity. Total bond is more than enough diversification.
by am
Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you diversify into international bond?
Replies: 33
Views: 2397

Re: New VG Performance Charts

Is the percentage return at the top compound annual growth rate or some other measure?
by am
Sat Aug 09, 2014 9:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New VG Performance Charts
Replies: 17
Views: 2057

Re: Persistence of SV performance

Seems like it is tough for the average retail investor to capture the SV premium, especially if investing at Vanguard. I also think that most investors could not tolerate the tracking error. My conclusion is that there is a SV premium to be had, but not for most retail investors who invest on their ...
by am
Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Persistence of SV performance
Replies: 71
Views: 4054

Alternative to taxable account ( for physician)

So I saw this huge malpractice award : http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/06/29/overlooked-lung-cancer-results-million-verdict-against-radiologist/rbFZ4e94nIeH57r46ixVSL/story.html for millions way over the limits for most physician policies, in my field. Oversights like this are very common but ...
by am
Sat Jul 05, 2014 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Alternative to taxable account ( for physician)
Replies: 4
Views: 602

Re: Market Timing with the PE10

If we have a specific portfolio goal that we would want to reach, I would think we would want to increase equities and/or savings rate since returns are expected to be low. I am not sure that high valuations necessarily mean that there will be a market crash. I would reduce equity exposure when I ap...
by am
Sat Jul 05, 2014 10:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing with the PE10
Replies: 18
Views: 2388

Brick patio question

We have aging concrete with some cracks and chips in our patio which is about 500 sq feet. Replacing several of the worst concrete slabs and stoop is about 1200 dollars. Brick patio is about 6600-8000k. Does it make sense to do the brick on a 600k house- which is in the lower 1/2 of home prices in o...
by am
Wed Jul 02, 2014 11:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Brick patio question
Replies: 8
Views: 996

Re: Hitting "The Number" too early

Take as little risk as possible with your money from this point on. Unless you Love your job, reduce hours and do things you enjoy more. As one smart boglehead said, you are more likely to run out of time than money.
by am
Tue Jul 01, 2014 6:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hitting "The Number" too early
Replies: 49
Views: 5598

Re: I am thinking of buying Ooma or Magicjack need help deci

Have used magic jack for about one year with rare call quality problems, but otherwise great. When I make the call again, problem goes away. Can not believe I paid for a land line all those years!
by am
Tue Jul 01, 2014 4:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I am thinking of buying Ooma or Magicjack need help deciding
Replies: 52
Views: 4414

Re: Driveway crack question

Is the condition such that one or more of the sections could be "floated"? Our HOA had sinking and cracking problems with the big sections of concrete surrounding the swimming pool and we opted to have the necessary sections "floated" and then the whole deck was resurfaced. What...
by am
Sun Jun 29, 2014 8:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Driveway crack question
Replies: 13
Views: 1193

Re: Driveway crack question

Yes we know that :) . But 20k or something like that for a stone driveway seems very non boglehead. 20k would be about 3% of the value of the house and probably would not raise the value.
by am
Sun Jun 29, 2014 8:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Driveway crack question
Replies: 13
Views: 1193

Re: Driveway crack question

Not a tripping issue, mostly a cosmetic issue. We have a house which we renovated in the last 5 years. The crack is an eyesore since we see it each time we open the front door. We filled it in in the past with filler but that lasted about a year and was gray colored coming no where near the color of...
by am
Sun Jun 29, 2014 8:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Driveway crack question
Replies: 13
Views: 1193

Driveway crack question

We have a 30 year old concrete driveway which is in decent shape other than a crack with step off by the part by our front door which extends across 2 slabs. Seems like it would be a good idea to address this problem as part of regular mantenance and for resale purposes. Our options are: To do nothi...
by am
Sun Jun 29, 2014 10:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Driveway crack question
Replies: 13
Views: 1193

Re: I'm livid -- Disability insurance dishonesty

Looks to me like that's a Principal policy! My wife and I have our disability policies with them as well, and yes, the Mental/Nervous Disorder limitation is the 10% discount, multi-life is 20% (which was the discount received for my residency program affiliation). The mental/nervous disorder limita...
by am
Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm livid -- Disability insurance dishonesty
Replies: 11
Views: 3149
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