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Re: Bad(?) advice given about Target Date Retirement funds

For sake of argument I will grant you that things can be fuzzy. BUT that has no bearing on my OP. That is based on the premise that someone DOES have a desired AA. Well, a "desired AA" doesn't equal a "carefully calculated AA" -- as you said in OP, which I challenged. I always d...
by YDNAL
Wed Aug 27, 2014 3:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad(?) advice given about Target Date Retirement funds
Replies: 101
Views: 5931

Re: Warren Buffet and the S&P index fund

He's realized over the years that vast majority (99% plus) of people aren't bright enough, thoughtful enough, or motivated enough to do what he does. Heck, most aren't bright enough to spell his name correctly. You got that right. I can't tell you how many times I've had to remind people that there...
by YDNAL
Wed Aug 27, 2014 3:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffet and the S&P index fund
Replies: 15
Views: 1092

Re: Bad(?) advice given about Target Date Retirement funds

This AA stuff is not a Science and is not sooooooo precise Yeah, but an 80/20 has twice as many bonds as 90/10. I'd say the psychological difference between those two is the largest, much greater than the difference between say 60/40 and 50/50. A 50% Equity drop with 90% Equities = 45% of invested ...
by YDNAL
Wed Aug 27, 2014 3:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad(?) advice given about Target Date Retirement funds
Replies: 101
Views: 5931

Re: Bad(?) advice given about Target Date Retirement funds

....If you pick ANY of the Vanguard TD funds that is NOT at its starting AA of 90/10 you are putting yourself on a glide path that will immediately start to change your carefully selected AA. The "normalcy" or lack thereof is not a relevant issue and I make no claim about it. I do say tha...
by YDNAL
Wed Aug 27, 2014 3:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad(?) advice given about Target Date Retirement funds
Replies: 101
Views: 5931

Re: Bad(?) advice given about Target Date Retirement funds

Leeraar wrote:The dangerous assumption you are making is that Target Date funds from different providers are similar or equivalent, "typically available all over the place". They are not.

L.

You are *assuming* that I made such assumption. :)
by YDNAL
Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad(?) advice given about Target Date Retirement funds
Replies: 101
Views: 5931

Re: Bad(?) advice given about Target Date Retirement funds

So if someone who was 30 years old said I'd prefer an 80/20 allocation and I want something I can just hold long-term, would anyone really advise them to buy the TR 2035 fund instead of the TR 2050 fund? No. They should buy LifeStrategy Growth and be done. L. The issue here, Leeraar, is that many (...
by YDNAL
Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad(?) advice given about Target Date Retirement funds
Replies: 101
Views: 5931

Re: Warren Buffet and the S&P index fund

....Remember Buffet`s bet with that hedge fund for 10 years saying the S&P 500 will return more and so far Buffet is winning after 5 years or so I think. Yes. http://fortune.com/2014/02/05/buffett-widens-lead-in-1-million-hedge-fund-bet/ The human mind can trick us into *thinking* that we know ...
by YDNAL
Wed Aug 27, 2014 1:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffet and the S&P index fund
Replies: 15
Views: 1092

Re: 100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?

Let's circle back to the original post by the OP and something that was said: At what age should he start adding Bonds? ....The opening question seems to be looking for a plan (a retirement plan to be specific) because without knowing when a person is going to retire, or want's to retire, we cannot...
by YDNAL
Wed Aug 27, 2014 1:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 3570

Re: Bad(?) advice given about Target Date Retirement funds

...why wouldn't it be just as bad to recommend buying and holding a Life Strategy fund that's either too conservative, early on, or too aggressive later on? In each instance, the investor is better served by having a basic understanding of the principles and adjusting allocation over time. If they ...
by YDNAL
Wed Aug 27, 2014 1:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad(?) advice given about Target Date Retirement funds
Replies: 101
Views: 5931

Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?

Reb Tevye wrote:So, what do you think The Herd is doing today?

I think the herd is paying ~7.5% more for S&P 500 earnings than 1 year ago and ~14.5% more than forward estimates.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2 ... yield.html
by YDNAL
Wed Aug 27, 2014 12:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Replies: 44
Views: 2504

Re: International allocation

kazper » Sun Aug 24, 2014 7:22 am wrote:What is your percentage?....

13%
    - I have a target 40/60 Equity/Fixed Income AA.
    - US Equities are 27%, International (non-US) Equities are 13%, Fixed Income is 60%.
I don't look at Equities in a vacuum.
by YDNAL
Wed Aug 27, 2014 11:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International allocation
Replies: 62
Views: 3157

Re: How I beat Indexing... in 1 hour

Had I lost $5000, I never would have tried the endeavor again.... SuperSaver, It seems to ME that you like making *bets* -- per earlier post by leonard -- that go beyond $5K in fun money. Hmmmm....having trouble with the math and algebra reconciling this approach with the numbers here: http://www.b...
by YDNAL
Wed Aug 27, 2014 11:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I beat Indexing... in 1 hour
Replies: 48
Views: 5784

Re: Bad(?) advice given about Target Date Retirement funds

... That said, TR 2035 will "glide" 7-8 points over 5 year periods. 1. So what?... 2. Unless, that is, you are attempting to dance on the head of a pin -- a.k.a. "carefully selected AA." ... Take me as an example, I'm 45. I "should" be in the 2035 fund, which is curren...
by YDNAL
Wed Aug 27, 2014 11:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad(?) advice given about Target Date Retirement funds
Replies: 101
Views: 5931

Re: S&P500 over 2000

.....Perhaps others can explain their "rebalancing" methodology. Thanks for responses to my suggestion. My point, though, was not elicit responses but it was to bring home the point that "rebalancing" to a pre-determined preferred Asset Allocation -- using a predetermined proces...
by YDNAL
Wed Aug 27, 2014 10:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 over 2000
Replies: 65
Views: 4590

Re: S&P500 over 2000

So who is selling equities and buying bonds to re-balance their portfolio? Excellent question. VFINX - S&P 500 Index's trailing 12 month TOTAL return is 22.41%. http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=VFINX&region=usa&culture=en-US $10,000 invested 50/50 VFIN...
by YDNAL
Tue Aug 26, 2014 5:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 over 2000
Replies: 65
Views: 4590

Re: How I beat Indexing... in 1 hour

5) For me, this was in early August - FARO: first in field, no real competition -ITMN: I knew of impending buy out - ILMN: same as FARO - LUV: knew of fuel prices coming down from USA Today app - TSLA: despite insane P/E ratio RESULTS: Cost basis $4400 Market Value: $5400 Guessing what "early ...
by YDNAL
Tue Aug 26, 2014 4:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I beat Indexing... in 1 hour
Replies: 48
Views: 5784

Re: S&P 500 Equal Weight Index

JoMoney » Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:37 am wrote:Maybe "small" just means "small-er". All of those companies are in Vanguard's Mid-Cap index fund.

Post reads: "tilting to small cap stocks." If poster meant "smaller" -- and certainly "mid caps" -- then (s)he would write it (me thinks).
by YDNAL
Tue Aug 26, 2014 11:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Equal Weight Index
Replies: 10
Views: 916

Re: S&P 500 Equal Weight Index

. 5 SMALLEST holdings in Vanguard VFINX (ascending order). https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FundsAllHoldings?FundId=0040&FundIntExt=INT&tableName=Equity&tableIndex=0&sort=MARKET_VALUE&sortOrder=web.funds.profile.view.FundsAllHoldingsSort$SortOrder@e818681 Graham Holdings Co. Clas...
by YDNAL
Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Equal Weight Index
Replies: 10
Views: 916

Re: 100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?

There is only one LARGE problem here... "Here"... where? My point -- and only point -- is that age is meaningless, and willingness (psychological), ability, and need for risk should dictate how we invest our savings. Period, the end! ... bonds CAN and usually DO improve your returns, with...
by YDNAL
Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 3570

Re: 100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?

Age in bonds is still a pretty good starting point. "Pretty good" how? A general "rule of thumb" is what it is. A 30yo and a 60yo can have exactly the same financial & psychological ability to -- under all conditions -- carry out an exact investment plan. ← That is what matt...
by YDNAL
Mon Aug 25, 2014 10:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 3570

Re: The Extreme Outliers of the Investment Universe

Rick, Thanks for sharing this- those charts are really informative. Two questions about them- does the chart for active funds include expenses? What is the time period for the active fund chart- just the first six months of 2012? Lyle Lyle, Simplegift's name is Todd (not Rick). Rick Ferri's article...
by YDNAL
Mon Aug 25, 2014 6:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Extreme Outliers of the Investment Universe
Replies: 27
Views: 2682

Re: 100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?

Gambler » Sun Aug 24, 2014 4:45 pm wrote:100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?

Age has nothing to do with this.

Financial and Psychological ability to carry out your investment plan - under all conditions - DOES!

ps. Have you ever read Benjamin Graham?
by YDNAL
Mon Aug 25, 2014 6:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stock AA-> At what age to add bonds?
Replies: 58
Views: 3570

Re: Different Strategy For 401k and IRA?

I have a 401k and an IRA and was wondering if it was a good idea to invest them differently? My 401k is invested mostly in an S&P 500 index fund. I have quite a bit more money in my 401k. Should I take a different strategy with my IRA to diversify my investments from the 401K? Any ideas or sugg...
by YDNAL
Wed Aug 20, 2014 4:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Different Strategy For 401k and IRA?
Replies: 3
Views: 228

Re: Why only stocks in a taxable account at retirement?

...Total Bond Market Index in a tax advantage account - 50% of portfolio Total Stock Market Index in a taxable account - 35% of portfolio Total International Index in a taxable account - 15% or portfolio I've read that you are supposed to withdraw at retirement (let's say 4%) in order from 1) Taxab...
by YDNAL
Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why only stocks in a taxable account at retirement?
Replies: 26
Views: 1836

Re: Bad(?) advice given about Target Date Retirement funds

....If you pick ANY of the Vanguard TD funds that is NOT at its starting AA of 90/10 you are putting yourself on a glide path that will immediately start to change your carefully selected AA. TR funds assume retirement at 65, so TR 2035 would apply to a 44 year old investor -- one who is 21 years f...
by YDNAL
Mon Aug 18, 2014 4:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad(?) advice given about Target Date Retirement funds
Replies: 101
Views: 5931

Re: Market Timing?

"The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell." - John Templeton "Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy." - Warren Buffett Would you consider these approaches to be market timing?...
by YDNAL
Sat Aug 16, 2014 10:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing?
Replies: 20
Views: 1231

Re: New lower limit for Admiral share conversion

I thought some of you would get a kick out of the following: We got an e-mail from Vanguard for a transaction that we did not initiate. Since we don't ever make any trades in our Vanguard accounts, this was rather troubling. So I go online to see who hacked into our Vanguard account. It turns out t...
by YDNAL
Fri Aug 15, 2014 4:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New lower limit for Admiral share conversion
Replies: 10
Views: 1658

Re: Why would a passive investor use ETFs?

My understanding is that if I buy and hold an etf long term, I pay lt cap gain tax on the sale. For a mf, I pay regular income tax. In taxable, I see that as a big advantage for an etf There is NO distinction -- either case (ETF or MF) -- when the asset sold for profit is held >1 year. Why would a ...
by YDNAL
Fri Aug 15, 2014 4:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why would a passive investor use ETFs?
Replies: 60
Views: 3702

Re: Do I need a small cap index if I already have total mark

Landy, All my TSP! I can do it , but then I can't re-balance from bonds to stocks, etc. I just am learning , and have never re-balanced. But, I won't be able to because my bonds will be in a seperate account! Yes, all of the TSP -- based on where your portfolio stands right now (account balances). ...
by YDNAL
Wed Aug 13, 2014 5:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I need a small cap index if I already have total market ?
Replies: 58
Views: 5378

Re: Do I need a small cap index if I already have total mark

riptide wrote:Thank you Landy for the calculations. Are you saying to put all my Tsp in the G fund?? You believe the G fund is better than the Vangaurd bond index funds that I hold??

Yes.
by YDNAL
Mon Aug 11, 2014 9:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I need a small cap index if I already have total market ?
Replies: 58
Views: 5378

Re: Do I need a small cap index if I already have total mark

TSP through employment G fund = 50% Government bonds (this would be 12% of portfolio if added) C fund = 33% (large CAP) >>>> S fund = 17% small CAP) >>>>>> these two would add to total market index , they would be also be 12% of portfolio) Riptide, This is your starting point today: 1. If the TSP i...
by YDNAL
Mon Aug 11, 2014 8:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I need a small cap index if I already have total market ?
Replies: 58
Views: 5378

Re: Do I need a small cap index if I already have total mark

Assuming that the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund is appropriately diverse and weighted to the real total market, the only reason for an additional holding in small cap stocks is the belief that small cap value stocks provide superior risk adjusted returns relative to other stocks.... Welcome to t...
by YDNAL
Sat Aug 09, 2014 5:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I need a small cap index if I already have total market ?
Replies: 58
Views: 5378

Re: Should this person buy bonds??

Suppose a retiree has sufficient income from pensions/annuities/social security (mostly COLA'd) to cover living expenses and even some extra. What would be the function of bonds in this persons portfolio? 1. Diversification. 2. Risk control. 3. Income. Are you assuming that non-Bond (for distinctio...
by YDNAL
Fri Aug 08, 2014 2:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should this person buy bonds??
Replies: 16
Views: 1128

Re: What is "risk on, risk off" supposed to mean? Is it real

nisiprius wrote:I hear this phrase used a lot ["risk on, risk off"], and I don't even know what it's supposed to mean. Does it actually mean anything, other using the power of suggestion to prime you to see a pattern?

Did you know there are "indicators"? :)
by YDNAL
Fri Aug 08, 2014 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is "risk on, risk off" supposed to mean? Is it real?
Replies: 7
Views: 641

Re: Short term vs Intermediate term bond funds

What are this forum's latest thoughts on short term bond funds (i.e. VBIRX and VTAPX) vs intermediate bond funds (i.e. VBTLX and VAIPX)..... I would venture to guess the "forum's latest thoughts" are the same as they were 6 months ago, last year, and the year before that. And this is docu...
by YDNAL
Fri Aug 08, 2014 1:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short term vs Intermediate term bond funds
Replies: 27
Views: 2523

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

One of my friends yesterday told me that since the market was down so much these past weeks it must be a good time to put a bunch more money in. I asked him how much it was down and he said over 10%. I just checked and all my funds are still up for the year. :sharebeer For "the year" and ...
by YDNAL
Fri Aug 08, 2014 1:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 802
Views: 135140

Re: Do I need a small cap index if I already have total mark

Thank you for letting me know it is not necessary. But, is it a good addition is what I really want to know? I didn't read all responses to your original post from Monday, so my apologies. To answer your question, I think we all need to take a closer look at the "Total" Stock Market index...
by YDNAL
Fri Aug 08, 2014 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I need a small cap index if I already have total market ?
Replies: 58
Views: 5378

Re: Volatility: Oh how I love thee.

In order to believe that you would have profited much from rebalancing in 2011--a year of "lovable" volatility--one has to assume "opportunistic" rebalancing, i.e. rebalancing based on correct intuition that it was "a good time." "Volatility" and its effect o...
by YDNAL
Fri Aug 08, 2014 8:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility: Oh how I love thee.
Replies: 44
Views: 3076

Re: Volatility: Oh how I love thee.

There’s nothing like good market volatility. It makes me sleep well at night. Plunging prices, several days of bad news, it makes me all smiles. No, I’m not a masochist. I just know that weak-minded investors become nervous and sell in a roller-coaster market, and that gives me more opportunities t...
by YDNAL
Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility: Oh how I love thee.
Replies: 44
Views: 3076

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

... I hear soo many people looking for stocks paying high dividend. I often wonder if they attempt step 1 and 2 first. I am going to stick to step 1 and 2, unless I am missing something, if so please inform me. Any comments or opinions on this topic. Fundamentally, retirement savings = deferring CU...
by YDNAL
Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 10557

Re: Prove adding SV will increase E(r) given the same risk

Lately, I have seen many posts similar to "adding SV and more bonds to market/bonds portfolio will increase the expected return at the same risk." First, here's Jack Bogle's take (2012) on expected return: http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.aspx?id=571370 Benz: So, let's start w...
by YDNAL
Thu Jul 31, 2014 3:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prove adding SV will lower the risk, given the same E(r)
Replies: 79
Views: 4002

Re: International investing. A good call by our mentor.

. Investing is NOT science. Water boiled at 212°F (99.98°C) at sea level in each of the last 15 years, the next 15 years, and 15 years after that. Stocks (US and non-US) behaved a certain way in the past and the behavior is unknown in the future. PS. "In this world nothing can be said to be cer...
by YDNAL
Thu Jul 31, 2014 2:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International investing. A good call by our mentor.
Replies: 145
Views: 12360

Re: POLL: Do you own corporate bonds?

With all the talk of tilting towards corporates, I'm curious how many Bogleheads use corporate bonds in their portfolio? Thanks! You may select 1 option Yes, I own a dedicated corporate bond fund or individual corporate bonds. Yes, but only as part of a total market bond fund. No, I only own govern...
by YDNAL
Fri Jul 25, 2014 1:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: Do you own corporate bonds?
Replies: 35
Views: 2142

Re: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index

Landy, You missed my point. I have an allocation to ST IG and LT Tax-Ex for rebalancing if/when needed. In fact, if you take a second read you will see I said that in my original response to you. I'm not conflating anything and your "stay the course" and mine may be different in ingredien...
by YDNAL
Thu Jul 24, 2014 11:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index
Replies: 76
Views: 7009

Re: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index

Welcome back Landy.... The most realistic solution I see for today's interest rate environment is ST IG (LT Tax-Ex in taxable) for rebalance money, which has a better interest rate rise recovery rate (yield/duration), and the rest in IT IG corporates. I don't like it, but I like it better than what...
by YDNAL
Wed Jul 23, 2014 11:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index
Replies: 76
Views: 7009

Re: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index

... As for the rebalancing bonus with Treasuries, I wonder how many people actually sold their precious Treasuries to buy equity during that crisis. I suspect very few. When discussions about rebalancing take place, the "rebalancing bonus" always raises its [ugly] head. I see it from a di...
by YDNAL
Wed Jul 23, 2014 8:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index
Replies: 76
Views: 7009

Re: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index

.... Can you let me know what you are saying in level clear language? Sorry, but I don't see the "unleveled, unclear" language in a synopsis I made of what you had said. Unless one panics and wants to cash out one's bond holdings during a temporary dip in bond prices , why should we gear ...
by YDNAL
Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index
Replies: 76
Views: 7009

Re: Do you "Tax Adjust" your Asset Allocation (Pre vs Roth,

YDNAL - I hope you didn't take my response as snarky because I didn't mean it as such. No, I responded to your post. 1. IF you are convinced that you own only 75% of the 401K, the AA to manage risk should reflect it . 2. Meaning that you need to rebalance out of Equities into Fixed Income (per &quo...
by YDNAL
Tue Jul 22, 2014 10:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you "Tax Adjust" your Asset Allocation (Pre vs Roth, etc)
Replies: 77
Views: 3749

Re: Do you "Tax Adjust" your Asset Allocation (Pre vs Roth,

Your Roth IRA is set up as follows: $50,000 in Total Stock Market. Your 401k is set up as follows: $25,000 in Total Stock Market. $75,000 in Total Bond..... What is your asset allocation right now, for rebalancing purposes? Is it: 50% Bond / 50% Stocks (75K each) or is it: 45% Bonds / 55% Stocks, b...
by YDNAL
Tue Jul 22, 2014 7:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you "Tax Adjust" your Asset Allocation (Pre vs Roth, etc)
Replies: 77
Views: 3749

Re: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index

Recall especially how corporates, even highly rated ones, behave in a crisis. They tank. Recall how treasuries behave in a crisis. They soar. Just look at the spread between corporates and US treasuries in the 2008 crash. Corporate bonds behave like stocks in a crisis, treasuries behave the opposit...
by YDNAL
Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index
Replies: 76
Views: 7009
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