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Re: Small cap value premium

Sure, in detail to the point it is nauseating. Yet here you are responding in this thread. :wink: I'm guilty of it too, I just can't stop myself from clicking in here. :sharebeer Yes, responded, while actually visiting the Forum sporadically the last few months; but found it necessary to address th...
by YDNAL
Sat Nov 22, 2014 7:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 134
Views: 8316

Re: Small cap value premium

I apologize as I know this topic has been discussed in detail. Sure, in detail to the point it is nauseating. Here are DFA's US Small Cap Value I DFSVX's current top 25 holdings -- a 20% representation of all holdings. Portfolio Company Weight Avis Budget Group Inc 1.75 CNO Financial Group Inc 1.30...
by YDNAL
Fri Nov 21, 2014 11:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 134
Views: 8316

Re: Does investing in a 401k actually save any money?

Let's assume overall tax rates stay the same for 30 years since none of us has a crystal ball. Let's further assume that someone who is in the 33% marginal tax bracket during his working career will be in the 28% tax bracket when he retires. Let's further assume he's an index fund investor and over...
by YDNAL
Fri Nov 21, 2014 10:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does investing in a 401k actually save any money?
Replies: 59
Views: 4938

Re: what is the actual value of my tax deferred accounts?

I have about 200k in tax deferred accounts, a 401k and a Keogh. I always use the 200k in my net worth calculations but really that 200k isn't mine. Just like when someone asks hey how much you make...well my paycheck says one thing but I'm in a very high tax bracket at approximately 33% federal, 9%...
by YDNAL
Thu Nov 13, 2014 4:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is the actual value of my tax deferred accounts?
Replies: 53
Views: 3720

Re: Rebalancing

How often and when do you rebalance your portfolio? When?..... to control portfolio risk. How often?..... frequency, time of the year, when stars align, etc. have nothing to do with rebalancing. It takes a 24% (or more) move in Stocks to trigger a 5% rebalancing band. Stock Adjusted Bond NEW AA 80 ...
by YDNAL
Thu Nov 13, 2014 3:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing
Replies: 7
Views: 567

Re: astonishing performance of US markets vs others

I do not plan to rebalance from Total Stock to Total International. I haven't sold my Total International (now 18% of stocks) but I do not plan to add to it. Yes, the PE and PB are cheaper for Total International but there is nothing saying they won't stay that way for a long time. I remember when ...
by YDNAL
Tue Nov 11, 2014 7:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: astonishing performance of US markets vs others
Replies: 50
Views: 5020

Re: vtsgx

VTSGX was the Signal share class of Vanguard Total International Index fund, which are now defunct. I think all Signal class shares of funds were converted to Admiral shares. Check your account, do you actually now hold VTIAX instead? Yes, Juniper is right and these Signal Class shares are "cl...
by YDNAL
Thu Nov 06, 2014 5:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vtsgx [Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index, Signal share class]
Replies: 12
Views: 1205

Re: vtsgx

Hello.. I was wondering if any Bogleheads might be able to answer this question for me. Has anyone been able to get the end-of-the-day quotes for VTSGX for the past week? Is there an explanation for the dramatic drop in price? Thanks. coffeebean VTSGX is not a symbol. 1. Vanguard Total Internationa...
by YDNAL
Thu Nov 06, 2014 4:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vtsgx [Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index, Signal share class]
Replies: 12
Views: 1205

Re: Comparing Total Returns of Top CD Offerings with an S&P

Comparing Total Returns of Top CD Offerings with an S&P 500 Index Fund Investment on depositaccounts.com is a great piece comparing S&P returns to CD returns over last ~8 years, seems that CDs with no risk have done well, this makes me feel reassured that I am doing a good thing investing 6...
by YDNAL
Mon Nov 03, 2014 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing Total Returns of Top CD Offerings with an S&P 500
Replies: 38
Views: 2185

Re: Pay taxes now to pay less taxes later

Assuming: ⋅ one has regular monthly income that would go to taxable or Roth IRAs/529s ⋅ long-term capital gains now and later would be 15% ⋅ market tends to increase One should pay LTCG taxes by realizing gains to fully fund Roth IRAs/529s immediately instead of waitin...
by YDNAL
Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pay taxes now to pay less taxes later
Replies: 7
Views: 1431

Re: More funds = more "efficient" rebalancing?

Tfb, Chan_va or others: Can you expend a bit further what it means that total funds continuously rebalance? If, for instance, "total international" simply reflects the whole international market, and if "emerging" performs better than the rest of the fund, wouldn't its share of ...
by YDNAL
Thu Oct 30, 2014 9:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More funds = more "efficient" rebalancing?
Replies: 28
Views: 1875

Re: If holding cash, do you want a Great Depression?

Surely if you hold cash you want the market to crash, a great depression would be even better. Would this not allow you tro become very rich in years ahead. You could buy up assets/stocks very cheaply and if everyone did not have money and you did, this would allow you to become very rich. So if ho...
by YDNAL
Wed Oct 29, 2014 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If holding cash, do you want a Great Depression?
Replies: 50
Views: 4075

Re: Asset Location

Hank Moody wrote:If there are two accounts, say a traditional IRA and a taxable account, please help me understand by equities go in the taxable account and bonds go in the IRA....

Sorry, but this dead horse has been beaten to death.
- Have you searched the Forum?
- Have you looked at the Bogleheads Wiki?
by YDNAL
Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Location
Replies: 13
Views: 783

Re: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed

The primary message of the post I quoted at the start is that it would be almost foolish for new investors to buy the S&P 500 and other high-price stocks today, even if the new investor planned on following the Boglehead philosophy. Far better, the post argues, to keep your money in cash until ...
by YDNAL
Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed
Replies: 53
Views: 6762

Re: More funds = more "efficient" rebalancing?

Tfb, Chan_va or others: Can you expend a bit further what it means that total funds continuously rebalance? If, for instance, "total international" simply reflects the whole international market, and if "emerging" performs better than the rest of the fund, wouldn't its share of ...
by YDNAL
Fri Oct 24, 2014 6:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More funds = more "efficient" rebalancing?
Replies: 28
Views: 1875

Re: More funds = more "efficient" rebalancing?

Tfb, Chan_va or others: Can you expend a bit further what it means that total funds continuously rebalance? If, for instance, "total international" simply reflects the whole international market, and if "emerging" performs better than the rest of the fund, wouldn't its share of ...
by YDNAL
Fri Oct 24, 2014 6:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More funds = more "efficient" rebalancing?
Replies: 28
Views: 1875

Re: Why include International Index in AA?

I have been wondering about why to invest part of my AA in International stocks (VGTSX). I was reading up on the three fund portfolio and this was one thing I couldn't quite get my head around. It seems to me that most of the holdings in a broad US based index fund (VTSMX) contain companies that ha...
by YDNAL
Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why include International Index in AA?
Replies: 39
Views: 2829

Re: More funds = more "efficient" rebalancing?

More funds = more "efficient" rebalancing I was browsing the "lazy portfolios" page when I was wondering if portfolios there with more funds haven't an intrinsic advantage over the minimalist 2- or 3-fund portfolios. Let's say that bonds are split between shorter terms and longe...
by YDNAL
Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More funds = more "efficient" rebalancing?
Replies: 28
Views: 1875

Re: Dry Powder

I do have questions: How do you know when is the *best time* to deploy cash?.... 5% dip, 10% dip, 15% dip....? What if your goal is not reached.... 3% dip instead, 8% dip instead, 13% dip instead....? I do not have a scientific method, what I did was to wait for the price to get in in the mid point...
by YDNAL
Sat Oct 18, 2014 3:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dry Powder
Replies: 49
Views: 3560

Re: Are Vanguard's target-retirement funds too aggressive?

Would you consider 90/10 too be too aggressive an asset allocation for someone in their early 30s? 1. A 30-yo multi-millionaire does not have the same financial profile as the 30-yo entry level manager at XYZ company that just started saving for retirement. 2. Age shouldn't drive asset allocations,...
by YDNAL
Fri Oct 17, 2014 3:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Vanguard's target-retirement funds too aggressive?
Replies: 24
Views: 1773

Re: Retired, my viewpoint has changed again.

I found some peace buy using Wm Bernstein's approach of having 20 -25 years of retirement expenses in "safe" products. This. ↑ Malloc, congratulations on your journey. Retirement doesn't mean the journey ends, just that a *different* journey begins. I have found it most interesting to obs...
by YDNAL
Thu Oct 16, 2014 7:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retired, my viewpoint has changed again.
Replies: 22
Views: 3247

Re: Dry Powder

I'd stick with bonds. It's not like anyone doesn't know that the market will flicuate,... Is *flicuate* when you watch consecutive flicks on TV? :) Seriously, other than stated in OP (emergency, ST need in withdrawal, etc.), the only reason to hold cash at 0% return is to market time. The taboo reg...
by YDNAL
Thu Oct 16, 2014 7:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dry Powder
Replies: 49
Views: 3560

Re: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?

Bill Sharpe has often expressed skepticism about portfolio "tilting,"..... http://www.advisorperspectives.com/newsletters14/41-sharpe-retire4.php Here's my question. What if Sharpe is right and the edge for value-tilting does go away, or even has already gone away. In that case, in the fu...
by YDNAL
Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will we know if value-tilting has stopped working?
Replies: 44
Views: 3142

Re: Why not 100% Stocks?

Maybe a better way to phrase my question is as such. If you had capital that you did not need for 15-30 years, what would your allocation be on THAT capital? If corporations (particularly US) have demonstrated, historically, to be a superior investment over long stretches AND if you believed that c...
by YDNAL
Mon Oct 13, 2014 4:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% Stocks?
Replies: 274
Views: 21416

Re: POLL : SP500 next : 1900 or 2200?

VictoriaF wrote:The results of this poll would be different if it were launched not on 6 Sep but on 13 Oct.

Victoria

Except the low option wouldn't be 1,900. :)

ps. And, the high is quite likely not 2,200.
by YDNAL
Mon Oct 13, 2014 4:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL : SP500 next : 1900 or 2200?
Replies: 31
Views: 3052

Re: POLL : SP500 next : 1900 or 2200?

villars wrote: POLL : SP500 next : 1900 or 2200?

I omitted the correct answer ("I don't know " ) on purpose , to keep things interesting.

Easy..... 1,900. LOL
by YDNAL
Mon Oct 13, 2014 3:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL : SP500 next : 1900 or 2200?
Replies: 31
Views: 3052

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

This thread maybe getting bumped a little more often:) S%P down about 1.6% thus far today. How much has the S & P fallen since last Monday morning in % and true numbers? S&P 500 closed Friday, 10/3/2014 at 1,968 (last Monday morning opening) and closed today at 1,875... a drop of -4.7% (and...
by YDNAL
Mon Oct 13, 2014 3:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 941
Views: 158566

Re: Market corrections and rebalancing band

Let me try to restate this idea with an example and with a slight twist. I have $50k in bonds and $50k in stocks. Included in the $50k bonds I have allocated $20k as safe assets so I have $30k available to rebalance. Is this your idea for "safe floor"? Yes, IF current $20K satisfies the u...
by YDNAL
Mon Oct 13, 2014 10:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market corrections and rebalancing band
Replies: 71
Views: 4211

Re: ETF's instead of index funds?

Does anybody strictly use ETF's instead of index funds? It seems so logical to use them instead of Index funds since there are no minimums. skeptic, As you can see, "logical" depends on the individual applying the logic and the circumstances that are best-suited and most comfortable to th...
by YDNAL
Mon Oct 13, 2014 9:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF's instead of index funds?
Replies: 24
Views: 1538

Re: Market corrections and rebalancing band

Doc, you should consider a couple of things to incorporate in your plan (IPS). 1. Floor in safe assets. That limits the dollar amount of safer assets to stop rebalancing during steep and sudden market drops. 2. Tighter bands. The one potential cost here may be clipping the benefit from momentum in ...
by YDNAL
Mon Oct 13, 2014 9:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market corrections and rebalancing band
Replies: 71
Views: 4211

Re: ETF's instead of index funds?

Does anybody strictly use ETF's instead of index funds? It seems so logical to use them instead of Index funds since there are no minimums. True, but you may be overemphasizing the "minimums." Anyone can buy Vanguard TSM with $3,000. Expense ratios may look lower on the surface, but trans...
by YDNAL
Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF's instead of index funds?
Replies: 24
Views: 1538

Re: Market corrections and rebalancing band

I don't know why this bothers you so much, Doc. If you don't like the correction magnitude requirement that results from 5% rebalancing bands, just change it so it's based on the high watermark, or tighten the band. It's your portfolio and you can do anything you want with it. Tightening the band h...
by YDNAL
Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market corrections and rebalancing band
Replies: 71
Views: 4211

Re: Avoid logging into brokerage account

....do you generally avoid logging into your brokerage accounts especially during periods of correction? I find myself doing this in order to avoid any temptation. Mainly just ignore the noise and let my automatic investments continue on as normal. Any opinions on this? How would you know when to t...
by YDNAL
Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid logging into brokerage account
Replies: 17
Views: 1764

Re: Bond Index Conundrum

I agree that a bond index does not make as much sense as a stock index. You should choose individual bond funds for your own situation. I think you meant to say an *aggregate* index fund. TBM is indexed to Barclays US Aggregate Float Adj Index . For example, I buy long-term bonds since I have a lon...
by YDNAL
Mon Oct 13, 2014 6:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Index Conundrum
Replies: 16
Views: 2096

Re: Draw down taxable saving first?

I plan to retire in 2 years. I will have to start using savings to fund retirement. Does it make sense to draw down taxable savings first? Most of mine in in TSM and Vanguard International. Not in 2016 (2 years), but 2014: Personal exemption: $3,950 (twice for married filing jointly) Standard deduc...
by YDNAL
Sun Oct 12, 2014 7:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Draw down taxable saving first?
Replies: 43
Views: 3711

Re: Current market volatility

No offense *cfs*, but this is a [sort-of] funny post. "Buying low" must have a benchmark. Is your benchmark yesterday, last week, month? Compared to the previous bi-weekly purchase !!!! Got it. "Buying low" at 12% higher than last year, but ~3% lower than 2 weeks ago. The reason...
by YDNAL
Sat Oct 11, 2014 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current market volatility
Replies: 21
Views: 1755

Re: Current market volatility

Finally. Finally, buying LOW for a change (done bi-weekly via one tax advantaged deferred-compensation retirement plan and a taxable account), yesterday was one of those buying days in our plan. No offense *cfs*, but this is a [sort-of] funny post. "Buying low" must have a benchmark. Is y...
by YDNAL
Sat Oct 11, 2014 2:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current market volatility
Replies: 21
Views: 1755

Re: Gains and Losses from Periodic Investments

grayfox wrote:I thought someone might be interested in this chart I created.

Yes, interesting visual representation of the old Boglehead philosophy item #2.... invest early and often. It is only preceded by: #1 develop a workable plan.
by YDNAL
Sat Oct 11, 2014 1:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gains and Losses from Periodic Investments
Replies: 13
Views: 1420

Re: Why not 100% Stocks?

One thing I don't quite understand is why not weight the portfolio almost exclusively in stocks. Their return over the long haul seems to greatly trump Bonds, CDs, etc. What role do bonds play in a portfolio, except perhaps access to liquidity. If my short term cash needs are not large, shouldn't I...
by YDNAL
Sat Oct 11, 2014 9:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% Stocks?
Replies: 274
Views: 21416

Re: Rebalancing Bands

Just playing around with a spreadsheet Is 10% as a Rebalancing band okay or too loose? Is 5% as a Rebalancing band too tight? I am adding new money each quarter to Re-Balance, so the bands would be breached between those periods if the markets are volatile If you rebalance with new contributions ea...
by YDNAL
Sat Oct 11, 2014 7:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing Bands
Replies: 15
Views: 1408

Re: Market corrections and rebalancing band

Again, it takes only an 18% correction (not 30%) for the market to adjust a 54.9/45.1 portfolio to 50/50 portfolio. Yes but under a 5% below target "rule" I don't start buying until I reach 45/55 not 50/50. I only have to buy ~17% but the market had to drop by ~34% before I started buying...
by YDNAL
Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market corrections and rebalancing band
Replies: 71
Views: 4211

Re: Market corrections and rebalancing band

Lot's of people jumped in here. I originally used "out of the air" numbers and Landy used a different starting assumption. Doc, "out of the air" numbers are simply incorrect. Here is the correction "if you are just under the upper limit." -18% Stocks 54.9 45.0 50.0% Bo...
by YDNAL
Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market corrections and rebalancing band
Replies: 71
Views: 4211

Re: Market corrections and rebalancing band

A common band application is to rebalance only when your AA is off by +/- 5%. So if you have a 50/50 AA and it is in balance it requires a market correction of about ~10% to hit the lower band. I don't see it that way (absolute terms). A +22% and -19% *stock* market correction is what triggers reba...
by YDNAL
Fri Oct 10, 2014 12:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market corrections and rebalancing band
Replies: 71
Views: 4211

Re: Market corrections and rebalancing band

I don't see it that way (absolute terms). A +22% and -19% *stock* market correction is what triggers rebalance of a 50/50 AA. +22% -19% Stocks 50 61 55.0% 41 45.1% Bonds 50 50 45.0% 50 54.9% Total 100 111 100.0% 91 100.0% I think your -19% is based on the total value of the portfolio (from 111 to 9...
by YDNAL
Fri Oct 10, 2014 12:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market corrections and rebalancing band
Replies: 71
Views: 4211

Re: Market corrections and rebalancing band

A common band application is to rebalance only when your AA is off by +/- 5%. So if you have a 50/50 AA and it is in balance it requires a market correction of about ~10% to hit the lower band. But if you are just under the upper limit - say 54.9/45.1 - it requires nearly a 30% correction to reach ...
by YDNAL
Fri Oct 10, 2014 11:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market corrections and rebalancing band
Replies: 71
Views: 4211

Re: Bond Index Conundrum

My understanding is the Total Bond Index fund holds only investment grade bonds. "Investment grade" is a generic classification that can also be misinterpreted to mean what it isn't (like highest quality, for instance). Vanguard VBMFX holds 27% assets currently with A or Baa credit qualit...
by YDNAL
Fri Oct 10, 2014 10:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Index Conundrum
Replies: 16
Views: 2096

Re: Is a fall in portfolio value "only on paper"?

If you own an index fund and the index goes down 20% you lost 20%, for now. Paper, shmaper, no different. And that's a fact, not a matter of choice as to how to think of things. The real issue is that long-term investors don't buy "the index for now." All else should be either secondary o...
by YDNAL
Fri Oct 10, 2014 10:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a fall in portfolio value "only on paper"?
Replies: 86
Views: 4054

Re: Is a fall in portfolio value "only on paper"?

Ummm. Dollars : Bonds : Equities - it's all fungible. I'll admit that the dollar valuation of my portfolio is more closely correlated to the cost of my next pint of beer than the number of shares I have in VPMAX, or LSBDX - but I really don't give a rip. Absolutely untrue. The "dollar valuatio...
by YDNAL
Fri Oct 10, 2014 7:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a fall in portfolio value "only on paper"?
Replies: 86
Views: 4054

Re: It's a good day to be Heavy in Bonds ---- 10-09-2014....

It's about how much you didn't lose! :beer Are you trying to publish a children's book: "It's a good day......."? See all the little wiggles, and the BIG wiggles, it's all part of investing in the stock the market. I said "part" and didn't imply or say anything else. http://uplo...
by YDNAL
Fri Oct 10, 2014 7:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a good day to be Heavy in Bonds ---- 10-09-2014.......
Replies: 13
Views: 1694

Re: Retirees only, what was you average investment return?

I am going to voice my modest opinion here. For those who say that historical earnings are not a tool for in making a decision as to whether one should invest in something or not are taking a huge risk. No one can predict the future but one would try and make an educated guess. The term "educa...
by YDNAL
Fri Oct 10, 2014 6:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees only, what was you average investment return?
Replies: 49
Views: 3530
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