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Re: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold

I read that fiance professor Dr. Andrew Lo said that the markets are getting so volatile these days, that the buy and hold strategies don't work anymore. I don't exactly understand why this is the case. I thought that the whole purpose of the buy and hold strategy was to avoid caring about volatili...
by YDNAL
Mon Jan 26, 2015 7:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with volatility if buy&hold
Replies: 39
Views: 2125

Re: What is the international portion of your portfolio and

Thanks for the input. I am trying to re-balance to a lower international allocation. Once I get there, I will maintain my AA. Is there a flaw in that approach? When one rebalances they are selling the winners (U.S.) and buy more of the losers (international) as an example from last years world equi...
by YDNAL
Mon Jan 26, 2015 6:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the international portion of your portfolio and why?
Replies: 127
Views: 9050

Re: Why not invest in bond fund in taxable account?

Thanks the response, Doc.

Been watching Heat/Bulls and now OKC/Cleveland basketball.
by YDNAL
Sun Jan 25, 2015 5:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not invest in bond fund in taxable account?
Replies: 23
Views: 2621

Re: Why not invest in bond fund in taxable account?

So if I have $260k total (including savings, 401k, IRA, etc.) and will need $70k in the next 5 years, I could do something like this: Retirement/long-term money: $190k = 90/10 stock/bond allocation Short-term money: $70k = 20/60/20 stock/bond/cash allocation Total will be $185k stocks, $61k bonds, ...
by YDNAL
Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not invest in bond fund in taxable account?
Replies: 23
Views: 2621

Re: Why not invest in bond fund in taxable account?

Saved money doesn't care what it is saved for. 1. Regardless how you compartmentalize the savings, "if stocks do tank," NET WORTH is affected identically. 3. Unless/Until we recognize this FACT, we then continue struggling with mental accounting issues. What would you do in my situation? ...
by YDNAL
Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not invest in bond fund in taxable account?
Replies: 23
Views: 2621

Re: Poll: Principles of Boglehead Philosophy

I disagree with you that any discussion of the Bogleheads philosophy must address all ten principles listed in the Wiki. In some contexts, it's very useful; in others, it's too much information. We shall remain in disagreement, because a philosophy is a comprehensive (and non-exclusive) body of pri...
by YDNAL
Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Principles of Boglehead Philosophy
Replies: 66
Views: 3491

Re: Poll: Principles of Boglehead Philosopy

1. Keeping expenses low is the cornerstone of the Bogleheads philosophy. - Implementation of low-cost index funds is Jack Bogle's main contribution to personal finance. - "Low cost" is not the same as the "lowest cost." 2. For most Boglehead newcomers, the best first step is to ...
by YDNAL
Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Principles of Boglehead Philosophy
Replies: 66
Views: 3491

Re: Poll: Principles of Boglehead Philosopy

Nonsense. The Boglehead philosophy isn't about "having fun" with it, or about "goals, fantasy." The philosophy is an activity of thought meant to guide action all of the time. "The most effective number to focus on" is ALL . 10 Principles of the Bogleheads investment p...
by YDNAL
Sun Jan 25, 2015 7:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Principles of Boglehead Philosophy
Replies: 66
Views: 3491

Re: SCIF vs SCIN vs SMIN

comeinvest wrote:Can someone please help me analyzing SCIF, SCIN and SMIN?

Look what a difference when letters are transposed.
VDE - Vanguard Energy
EDV - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury

You need to identify what you want analyzed. Many (most?) Forum participants don't go looking to find out.
by YDNAL
Sun Jan 25, 2015 6:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCIF vs SCIN vs SMIN
Replies: 2
Views: 231

Re: Why not invest in bond fund in taxable account?

What I really want to do is this, for simplicity and mental accounting purposes: Keep separate "retirement" accounts and all other money - emergency fund, cash needed for near future large or one-time purchases, down payment money for my next house (3 years, maybe), allowance for home rep...
by YDNAL
Sun Jan 25, 2015 6:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not invest in bond fund in taxable account?
Replies: 23
Views: 2621

Re: Poll: Principles of Boglehead Philosopy

Ten, eleven, or whatever is the right number of the Bogleheads principles, provide a comprehensive view of one's personal financial management. Perhaps, things like adequate insurance and estate planning belong here, too. However, the most effective number to focus on is THREE. If you have a list o...
by YDNAL
Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Principles of Boglehead Philosophy
Replies: 66
Views: 3491

Re: Poll: Principles of Boglehead Philosopy

. There are no 3, 4 (whatever) important investing principles. The Boglehead investing philosophy is comprehensive -- all 10 principles -- encompassing important investing decisions that enhance our ability (and probability) to meet financial goals. I didn't really read all responses in detail, but ...
by YDNAL
Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Principles of Boglehead Philosophy
Replies: 66
Views: 3491

Re: Poll: Principles of Boglehead Philosopy

Just for fun...pick what you think are the top 3 Boglehead principles. You can re-vote if you change your mind. I thought there were only 10 Principles of the Bogleheads investment philosophy. Your poll shows many other choices and some very important choices are actually excluded. Gosh, I dislike ...
by YDNAL
Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Principles of Boglehead Philosophy
Replies: 66
Views: 3491

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

I don't see what's incorrect about that unless you're making a pedantic argument that instructing the user to exclude needs covered by SS & pensions before putting their input into the calculator is "accounting for it". By contrast, what I was referring to is a calculator like Firecal...
by YDNAL
Fri Jan 16, 2015 6:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10636

Re: What is the international portion of your portfolio and

100% in equities with 20% in VGSTX... Why: I've done numerous research and run the numbers for different time horizons and ranges and 15-20% gives me the highest returns for the level of risk. I'm not sure if 20 years from now I'll have this weighting of assets (who cares, it's 20 years from now), ...
by YDNAL
Fri Jan 16, 2015 3:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the international portion of your portfolio and why?
Replies: 127
Views: 9050

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

In the Vanguard calculator , for 30 years and 4%,..... If aware if that (<- I'm aware of that?) and as I said, closer to 4% than 2%; I'm not literally planning on a full 4% WR. Also, most calculators like that fail to account for the value of social security, which can significantly reduce one's po...
by YDNAL
Fri Jan 16, 2015 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10636

Re: Buying Call Option to Fund 2015 & 2016 IRA

What am I missing? The market can be irrational longer than you can come-up with other mind games! I suggest funding the IRA when you have the money, and while at it, make sure your TOTAL savings are maximized to the best of your ability. I max at all tax advantaged accouts and adding to a taxable ...
by YDNAL
Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying Call Option to Fund 2015 & 2016 IRA
Replies: 18
Views: 497

Re: Tilting to Corp. Bonds

I heard Bogle suggest tilting to corporate bonds. He said that the purpose of indexing is to "beat the guy next door" and most investors have more corporate bonds. He said the reason the index has more government bonds is because other governments buy them. Any thoughts? That's not necess...
by YDNAL
Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting to Corp. Bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 2904

Re: Buying Call Option to Fund 2015 & 2016 IRA

NOVACPA wrote:What am I missing?

The market can be irrational longer than you can come-up with other mind games!

I suggest funding the IRA when you have the money, and while at it, make sure your TOTAL savings are maximized to the best of your ability.
by YDNAL
Fri Jan 16, 2015 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying Call Option to Fund 2015 & 2016 IRA
Replies: 18
Views: 497

Re: Is International Equity a "Factor"?

I lean mostly toward pure Boglehead principles and don't slice-and-dice. However, I wonder why allocating a part of the equity portion of one's portfolio to various "factors" such as small-cap value, etc. is considered "tilting", while investing in international equity seems not...
by YDNAL
Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is International Equity a "Factor"?
Replies: 8
Views: 617

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

I'm sure my family would appreciate me being around more than getting a bigger check when I'm gone, at least the ones that I'd care to leave anything to. Have you asked all of them? :D In the Vanguard calculator , for 30 years and 4%,..... If aware if that (<- I'm aware of that?) and as I said, clo...
by YDNAL
Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10636

Re: Could someone explain the difference...

Note that FTSE All-World ex-US has almost 2500 stocks. FTSE All-World ex-US Small Cap has almost 3300 stocks. Total International has almost 5800 stocks. This is quite different than the relation between S&P 500, Extended Market and Total Stock Market on the US side. Total Stock Market has a la...
by YDNAL
Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [What's the difference? All-world ex-US vs. Total Internat.]
Replies: 5
Views: 727

Re: Short term bonds in rising interest rates?

What if you do not need the money until you start your RMD's in 8 years and your bond funds will be the main source of the RMD's? Foolish to have it in short term in this case? Yes, foolish. 1. If you buy Vanguard IT Bond Index (VBILX) today, you can expect to get compensated an amount approximatin...
by YDNAL
Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short term bonds in rising interest rates?
Replies: 26
Views: 2564

Re: Why invest in International funds? It's a mystery

.... companies in the S&P 500 get 46.2% of their earnings from overseas, and that's enough international exposure for anyone. If the S&P 500 is giving that much exposure, isn't that enough? And didn't Bogle just say in an interview he thinks US investing is just fine, international is not n...
by YDNAL
Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in International funds? It's a mystery
Replies: 121
Views: 10418

Re: Am I making a mistake being too conservative?

I need to figure what amount to count of the business in my overall portfolio. I wonder if I should consider what the business would sell (what someone would pay to buy it) today? I don't plan to sell it for at least another 20+ years but life changes may occur that I am not expecting. The business...
by YDNAL
Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I making a mistake being too conservative?
Replies: 58
Views: 7477

Re: Short term bonds in rising interest rates?

I was reading an article that quoted William Bernstein on the topic of bonds. His position is to invest in short term high grade bond funds exclusively. One point in the article talked about the risk of rising interest rates as it relates to bonds and that the shorter duration of the bond fund, the...
by YDNAL
Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short term bonds in rising interest rates?
Replies: 26
Views: 2564

Re: Am I making a mistake being too conservative?

my current portfolio will still grow Well, just to be pedantic, you actually can't know that. It probably will grow, but it might not. There's also the risk of it not growing enough to keep pace with inflation, which is financially equivalent to not growing. Statements as yours need to be addressed...
by YDNAL
Thu Jan 15, 2015 11:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I making a mistake being too conservative?
Replies: 58
Views: 7477

Re: Could someone explain the difference...

...between FTSE all-world (ex-US) index (VFWAX) and Total International Index (VTIAX)? I get they track different indices. When I graph the performances together they seem identical. If there were no real difference there would not be two (you'd think), so what am I not seeing? VTIAX tracks the FTS...
by YDNAL
Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [What's the difference? All-world ex-US vs. Total Internat.]
Replies: 5
Views: 727

Re: Do you use the 9 style-box for AA?

I have occasionally read posts on this forum that site the Morningstar style box. Sometimes people will share their numbers in each of the 9 boxes. Until now I have only used this as a tool for individual funds but it sounds like some use this for their whole portfolio. If so, is it used in both AA...
by YDNAL
Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you use the 9 style-box for AA?
Replies: 24
Views: 1866

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

It is shortsighted to see savings rate (33x, 50x, whatever) as a single objective. Savers save for multiple objectives regardless if "you don't." But even you would agree that a SWR can be too low, wouldn't you? What would you say to someone who proposes a 1.5% SWR? My point is simply tha...
by YDNAL
Sun Jan 11, 2015 2:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10636

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

In the most extreme cases, we've even seen a few Bogleheads advocating sub-3% withdrawal rates. Makes very little sense for anyone retiring in their 60s. In sum, this might be a quirk of the conservative nature of Bogleheads who have vigilently denied gratification by saving all those years during ...
by YDNAL
Sun Jan 11, 2015 1:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10636

Re: Where do you tilt your Total Int'l Fund?

I have read many posts on here about people that move off the 3 fund portfolio and tilt to US equities. There are some who also tilt their fixed income portfolio. But id like to learn from those who tilt their international index fund - where do you tilt and why? :beer A couple of things: 1. Accord...
by YDNAL
Sun Jan 11, 2015 8:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do you tilt your Total Int'l Fund?
Replies: 40
Views: 3208

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

In the most extreme cases, we've even seen a few Bogleheads advocating sub-3% withdrawal rates. Makes very little sense for anyone retiring in their 60s. In sum, this might be a quirk of the conservative nature of Bogleheads who have vigilently denied gratification by saving all those years during ...
by YDNAL
Sun Jan 11, 2015 7:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10636

Re: 2000-2014 [15 year returns]

Where can you find these tables for 15 years? Easy for Vanguard funds. Under Price & Performance, go to "See cumulative, yearly, and quarterly historical returns." https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0085&FundIntExt=INT#tab=1a I only see 10 year returns on Vangu...
by YDNAL
Sat Jan 10, 2015 3:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-2014 [15 year returns]
Replies: 26
Views: 4117

Re: Help clarify "expected future return"

I keep reading a number of posts that read something to the effect of "because the price of x is low today, means that its expected estimated future return will be higher." I think that you are misreading what is written. That said, the word "expected" has strong connotation -- ...
by YDNAL
Sat Jan 10, 2015 7:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help clarify "expected future return"
Replies: 12
Views: 726

Re: 2000-2014 [15 year returns]

bobbd wrote:Where can you find these tables for 15 years?

Easy for Vanguard funds. Under Price & Performance, go to "See cumulative, yearly, and quarterly historical returns."
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... INT#tab=1a
by YDNAL
Sat Jan 10, 2015 6:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-2014 [15 year returns]
Replies: 26
Views: 4117

Re: International Stock Index Potential

Hello, What potential does the international stock index (VXUS) have to grow in one year? It has the "potential" to do the same it did over any of the past 5 years. The same applies to other funds. Year Total Int. Total U.S. 2010 11.12% 17.09% 2011 -14.56% 0.96% 2012 18.14% 16.25% 2013 15...
by YDNAL
Sat Jan 10, 2015 6:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock Index Potential
Replies: 23
Views: 3164

Re: What is the international portion of your portfolio and

What is the international portion of your portfolio and why? 2011, 2013 and 2014, especially, were *relatively* unkind to our friends overseas. Year Total Int. Total U.S. 2010 11.12% 17.09% 2011 -14.56% 0.96% 2012 18.14% 16.25% 2013 15.04% 33.35% 2014 -4.24% 12.43% Those are Vanguard funds. My Inte...
by YDNAL
Sat Jan 10, 2015 6:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the international portion of your portfolio and why?
Replies: 127
Views: 9050

Re: Sm. cap and Internatl allocation in current enivironment

..... As you can see he is 50/50 us and non usa. He's 50/50 large/small. Within us large he 1/2 value and 1/2 blend. Within us small he is 1/2 value and 1/2 blend. He's 50/50 us and nonus reit. Perfectly diced pie tilted toward small and value which historically will increase your returns. I like i...
by YDNAL
Sat Jan 10, 2015 6:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sm. cap and Internatl allocation in current enivironment
Replies: 8
Views: 1051

Re: 2000-2014

Here’s 15 year returns 2000-2014, encompassing two significant downturns and recoveries. Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX 4.75 Vanguard Total International VGTSX 2.96 Vanguard Total Bond Market VBMFX 5.45 Vanguard Mid-Cap Index VIMSX 9.60 Vanguard Extended Market VEXMX 6.45 Vanguard Small-Cap Inde...
by YDNAL
Thu Jan 08, 2015 5:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-2014 [15 year returns]
Replies: 26
Views: 4117

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

My guess.... 1231.15 Back to the Future!.... don't say I did not warn y'all to always be cognizant of potential large market drops. :D Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close 1-Dec-10 1,186.60 1,207.61 1,186.60 1,206.07 4,548,110,000 1,206.07 2-Dec-10 1,206.81 1,221.89 1,206.81 1,221.53 4,970,800,...
by YDNAL
Thu Jan 08, 2015 12:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 556
Views: 19738

Re: Can assuming more risk, increase returns?

i read that a young person who has a multi decade time horizon, can assume more risk. I don't mean single stocks, but with low cost index funds. When one assums more risk, does that typically mean higher long term returns? Typically, yes, higher return. Consistently, no. Guaranteed, no way! A Japan...
by YDNAL
Thu Jan 08, 2015 10:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can assuming more risk, increase returns?
Replies: 41
Views: 2532

Re: Small cap value premium

Sure, in detail to the point it is nauseating. Yet here you are responding in this thread. :wink: I'm guilty of it too, I just can't stop myself from clicking in here. :sharebeer Yes, responded, while actually visiting the Forum sporadically the last few months; but found it necessary to address th...
by YDNAL
Sat Nov 22, 2014 7:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 150
Views: 19988

Re: Small cap value premium

I apologize as I know this topic has been discussed in detail. Sure, in detail to the point it is nauseating. Here are DFA's US Small Cap Value I DFSVX's current top 25 holdings -- a 20% representation of all holdings. Portfolio Company Weight Avis Budget Group Inc 1.75 CNO Financial Group Inc 1.30...
by YDNAL
Fri Nov 21, 2014 11:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 150
Views: 19988

Re: Does investing in a 401k actually save any money?

Let's assume overall tax rates stay the same for 30 years since none of us has a crystal ball. Let's further assume that someone who is in the 33% marginal tax bracket during his working career will be in the 28% tax bracket when he retires. Let's further assume he's an index fund investor and over...
by YDNAL
Fri Nov 21, 2014 10:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does investing in a 401k actually save any money?
Replies: 75
Views: 10540

Re: what is the actual value of my tax deferred accounts?

I have about 200k in tax deferred accounts, a 401k and a Keogh. I always use the 200k in my net worth calculations but really that 200k isn't mine. Just like when someone asks hey how much you make...well my paycheck says one thing but I'm in a very high tax bracket at approximately 33% federal, 9%...
by YDNAL
Thu Nov 13, 2014 4:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is the actual value of my tax deferred accounts?
Replies: 53
Views: 4460

Re: Rebalancing

How often and when do you rebalance your portfolio? When?..... to control portfolio risk. How often?..... frequency, time of the year, when stars align, etc. have nothing to do with rebalancing. It takes a 24% (or more) move in Stocks to trigger a 5% rebalancing band. Stock Adjusted Bond NEW AA 80 ...
by YDNAL
Thu Nov 13, 2014 3:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing
Replies: 7
Views: 615

Re: astonishing performance of US markets vs others

I do not plan to rebalance from Total Stock to Total International. I haven't sold my Total International (now 18% of stocks) but I do not plan to add to it. Yes, the PE and PB are cheaper for Total International but there is nothing saying they won't stay that way for a long time. I remember when ...
by YDNAL
Tue Nov 11, 2014 7:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: astonishing performance of US markets vs others
Replies: 50
Views: 5399

Re: vtsgx

VTSGX was the Signal share class of Vanguard Total International Index fund, which are now defunct. I think all Signal class shares of funds were converted to Admiral shares. Check your account, do you actually now hold VTIAX instead? Yes, Juniper is right and these Signal Class shares are "cl...
by YDNAL
Thu Nov 06, 2014 5:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vtsgx [Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index, Signal share class]
Replies: 11
Views: 1414

Re: vtsgx

Hello.. I was wondering if any Bogleheads might be able to answer this question for me. Has anyone been able to get the end-of-the-day quotes for VTSGX for the past week? Is there an explanation for the dramatic drop in price? Thanks. coffeebean VTSGX is not a symbol. 1. Vanguard Total Internationa...
by YDNAL
Thu Nov 06, 2014 4:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vtsgx [Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index, Signal share class]
Replies: 11
Views: 1414
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