Bogleheads.org

Last December, my coworker who is about a year or so from retirement moved ALL of his 401k savings into a Stable Value fund which yields approx 3.5%. He did this because, at the time, he was concerned that the looming "Fiscal Cliff" would wreck havoc in the Stock/Bond markets and cause hi...

To take advantage of compound [ing] interest do you have to reinvest your dividends to buy more shares? I own mutual fund shares by the way. Buying more shares with your dividends gives you potentially larger compounding in both dividends and market price increase. Conversely, for instance, IF you ...

So far no. 1) you can't look at stocks in isolation, you must think about the portfolio as a whole. If stocks stink (high valuation) and other assets are even more over priced (say bonds have negative real yield) should you really be selling stocks to buy bonds? All stock valuation trading studies ...

As 666 was the low back in March 2009, maybe 1,666 will be the high ? Not having invested yet in the 90s, I have to admit this ongoing rally is getting a bit scary. And a bit painful as well, as I'm overweight emerging markets. Since you posted the OP at 3:47PM yesterday, I don't think that you mea...

...100/25=4 tells me that if I take 4 x 25 from my cookie jar, I'm good to go. IF 100 is not enough, then put more in -or- take less from the cookie jar This is a simple equation but of course with inflation "4x25" is not necessarily going to be "good to go", i.e. the "4&qu...

NO ONE knows the future Thus we have risk. SPIAs are a way of paying someone else to take that risk. SPIAs are not riskless (by far) - and I hope you don't believe they are for your own good. In closing, you took ONE piece of my first post to introduce more of the same "stuff" that often ...

1. If PE 10 goes to 44 (a la 1999), my IPS says to reduce Equity risk. Link: http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/ 2. If 10-year Treasury yields go much below 3%, my IPS says to reduce duration. Link: http://www.multpl.com/interest-rate/ I really don't concern myself, FWIW, what these strategies are ca...

3. My suggestion is to accept that everything else is pretty uncontrollable (face it!) - so go fishing and stop thinking that a model, Excel spreadsheet, what-have-you, is going to make you feel better. The attraction of SPIAs is that they DO provide a way to control returns. Yes, they cost money, ...

100% agree, LH. Market timing is market timing. I have no problem with "short bonds always," if that's what's appropriate for an investor. But I do have a problem with "short bonds now." "Market timing" is nothing but words. Often it feels like we use them in this Foru...

My suggestion is to accept that everything else is pretty uncontrollable (face it!) - so go fishing and stop thinking that a model, Excel spreadsheet, what-have-you, is going to make you feel better. The more I chase numbers around a spreadsheet, the more sense that suggestion makes. Looks like a g...

I would have posted on a recent thread but felt this would be missed on the 63rd post http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/15/business/retirementspecial/the-4-rule-for-retirement-withdrawals-may-be-outdated.html?ref=retirementspecial As also discussed in the recent thread on this site there are suggestio...

Regarding stat’s, it doesn’t say anything different than what I wrote before. Most of his under-performance when compared to M* long-short index came in his last year, which dragged down 1,5,10 year numbers. No, Ranger, I suggest evaluating "under-performance" as compared to a broad Index...

I'm retired. Married. Low tax bracket. Have retirement accounts with Vanguard divided between 2010 Target Retirement Fund, Wellesley, Wellington, Life Strategy Growth Fund and can sleep at night with this. I've inherited ~$70,000 in individual stocks, mostly in IBM and Medtronic. I want to move all...

A common question is: If I have some money to invest, what is better: to invest it as a lump sum (LS) or to do Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)? - The response is usually "LS is better on the long run, but DCA helps with psychological quirks." When the goal is inverse of the above, is the logi...

If to you this 10-year run happens to be "not bad," good for you! Absolutely, ... There you are! You have accepted that active management, in this instance, is "not bad" by providing larger returns 2000-2003 (3.5 yrs) then near ZERO return annually 2004-2013 (10 yrs). Morningsta...

I am a young investor (23) and I started when I was 22 so I learned by doing but now I am learning much more and I am much more knowledgeable than I was when I made some investments. SS, MOST important is the amount you save , early in accumulation, which is many times more valuable that anything e...

Vanguard's CapOp fund seems to be blowing the roof off right now. I just looked at the holdings, and over 65% is divided between healthcare and tech. I guess there's something to be said for active management, even if just for now. That happens when ~30% invested in 7 healthcare companies outperfor...

2. Just wanted to show you: a. what happened during 77% (10/13) of HSGFX's short life, b. no one has a magic wand to effectively and consistently pick the best performers in the future, c. proceed at your own peril. Alas, even bogleheads not immune from comparing to wrong index. His is long/short f...

John...Yes of course I own bonds. I own a lot more bonds than stocks. The fact that they return less than stocks is irrelevant to why I own them. I own them to balance the risk of owning stocks. I believe that you are mixing investment basics, and then arrive at faulty conclusions: 1. One buys Inde...

YDNAL You can change the chart to see what you want but fact is, 10K growth since inception: HSGFX...17430 SP500...13926 1. People don't buy a fund "at inception" and only at inception - rather, they accumulate over time. 2. Just wanted to show you: a. what happened during 77% (10/13) of ...

Hussman's flagship fund since inception: http://i44.tinypic.com/6em1on.jpg Unless I need glasses, ⋅ Invest about $19.5K in 2004 in Hussman Strat. Growth and find yourself with about $17.5K in 2013. :( ⋅ Invest $8.5K in S&P 500 and have about $14.5K. :happy ⋅ Damn i...

I..... when I see charts like this one for a fund I had invested in long time ago..............and then I gave up on it thinking expense ratio was too high. I picked it randomly as an example, but I am sure there are other active funds like this out there. https://www.oakmark.com/Oakmark/web/me.get...

What is everyone's favorite stock and bond indexes for a long term investment. I just turned all my rothIRA brokerage (my emphasis) mutual funds to cash and I'm thinking of going vanguard total stock market, vanguard total international and vanguard total bond market. Did you see this link ? Link: ...

I sold everything that made me money in a market that seems insanely valued. I have a bunch of money to buy back in. How can I not think of a little market timing at a time like this? I have about 20 years of active investing left in me. For now, I'm willing to have 100% in VTSAX. I just haven't de...

PK thanks for distracting them....I snuck out the back... :happy What I do not understand is how one can have the historical knowledge and be 100 pct immune from it's influence when you choose the index method. You are a little all over the map, so going out the back door may help. I thought my inp...

To be honest, I cheered when the last stock market crash happened. I knew I was getting a bargain every time I purchased another monthly installment. Now things are different.... Last Thursday I pulled the trigger and liquidated all of my mutual funds in both the 457 and the Roth. I'm up about 40-5...

I know it is a big deal to ever own something based on past performance but isn't the entire Boglehead philosophy based on past performance? Own the total market because (my emphasis) it has outperformed 80 whatever pct of managed funds with its low fees and no stock picking. You start with a fault...

I'm 27 and I have learned that the only prudent outlook to 'the future' (in terms of returns, etc...) is to control what you can: save as best you can and diversify your investments at low cost. If you do this then it doesn't matter if your portfolio is returning 2% or 15% because you are controlli...

[EDIT] Reposted on Monday.

I think it is plausible that many people would choose such a fund exactly due to the simplicity of feeling that everything is taken care of. I still doubt that choice is an explicit election of a portfolio strategy. To answer that we would have to gather a representative sample from all those who h...

$2 million? I'm thinking if you own your own house outright with no mortgage and have modest annual income requirements of $75,000 or less a year, it's quite do-able. Welcome to the Forum, Saundra! All 40you are not created equal; but it would not be unreasonable to think 50 years in retirement, an...

I cannot figure out why people are putting money in both funds. To me, they seem very similar, except that Wellesley is a bit more aggressive and less diversified. Steve, They seem "very similar" ONLY IF you ignore the differences, largely as you did. I'm not going to get into these diffe...

Wow! LG please remove me from this forum permanently so that I am never tempted to post here again. Thanks. Bruce, This is "mostly" an informational Forum where people exchange ideas, new posters ask for some direction & help; and sure, some discussions get distasteful and even requir...

According to the spreadsheet, a $2 million portfolio with starting expenses of $120,000 per year will run out in about 17 years. (This excludes everything else including social security, pension etc.) Questions: 1. Is this about right? 2. What is a better way to do this? What do you mean by "e...

In other words, I don't understand how the currently stated yield is possible or why it would have moved so significantly upward. Anybody have an idea what's going on here? Am I missing some obvious explanation? I looked at VIPSX and the yield fluctuates from -1.04% to -1.21% from the beginning of ...

Interesting comment Wizard because that is almost the opposite of the question I was posing. My retirement planning model, and all of the other popular legit models do not pretend to predict the future and all fully recognize the degree of market uncertainty. Anyone who selects a planning model bec...

. Many recent topics go off-topic and all over the place. ⋅ The subject of this thread... less volatility = more wealth is counterintuitive. ⋅ I will use Vanguard and use 15 years because this is what is readily available, and since I don't wish to waste any more time. Here is a ...

Lowering volatility CAN help wealth ... The Lottery CAN help wealth. :P Seriously, boggler (OP) posted an image (see below) showing: ⋅ 3 different portfolios ALL with 10-year 10% annual return. ⋅ Volatility of 5%, 10%, 20%, respectively. Volatility = higher expected return. All ...

WooHoo! Also, I sold active funds to put into index. Simultaneously, I simplified my portfolio by moving some pre-boglehead investments into index funds. Congratulations! :beer My question now is simple: Assuming that I will have capital gains on those sales (I will), and assuming that I forgot to ...

I couldn't decide when to make my 2013 IRA contribution in the beginning of this year. It seemed like the market was "too high" and I thought that I should wait for a "dip". Can you tell me, ProfessorX, how were you able to make this (quote above) determination ? Link: http://ww...

I couldn't decide when to make my 2013 IRA contribution in the beginning of this year. It seemed like the market was "too high" and I thought that I should wait for a "dip". Can you tell me, ProfessorX, how were you able to make this (quote above) determination ? Link: http://ww...

There are 2 issues: 1. Yes, it makes sense to consider Bonds [Fixed Income investments] in light of "reducing equity market volatility." 2. No, investors are not required to accept lower expected Bond returns - with added risk - when similar or better returns with lower (or no) risk are a...

Arithmetic artifacts do not create investment strategies. Keith, do I have your permission to use this as my signature. :D "Less volatility = more wealth, all else being equal" Is this true? See below. I always thought that as long as you stay invested, it doesn't matter what the volatili...

This is part of the Conclusion of a new Vanguard Research study: Investors should recognize that lower expected bond returns have not altered the fundamental relationship between risk and return or the role that a strategic bond allocation has in reducing equity market volatility. Reducing bonds? P...

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/05/06/warren-buffett-federal-reserve-stocks-bonds-heinz/2138403/ From the article: "Buffett said on CNBC financial news network Monday that bonds are a "terrible" investment at the moment and that owners of long-term bonds may see big...

I've annuitized a hefty percentage of my assets, enough to get an annual retirement income in the ballpark of $100K (taxable). Now do I expect to SPEND all of my retirement income, after taxes? Answer = No. I fully expect a portion of my retirement income to get reinvested in my after-tax VG accoun...

Based on discussions here and the writings of folks like Wade Pfau, I have at times considered amending my IPS to call for a downward shift in equities as P/E10 levels exceed normal ranges. With mean P/E10 around 16, the current 24 level seems like a time to start downshifting. Do you adjust your s...

Blues, As discussed, you don't have to defend Bill Bernstein every time "the quote" pops-up and I expand on it - since I don't do it for my benefit (or your benefit) but do it for others whom may be mislead. As such, I find it counter-productive to rehash this conversation multiple times....

So we are not allowed to time the market because nobody can predict the future, but we are supposed to predict now that 4% will not work in the future even though it has worked in the past. Interesting... You are attempting - not succeeding in my eyes - to link one issue [timing the Market] with an...

I read Dr Pfau's white paper on the danger of the 4% withdrawal rate when real interest rates are this low. As I recall, he suggested in today's environment that the withdrawal rate should be about 2.8%. However, he included investment expenses and management expenses to derive this number of 2.8%....