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Re: Savings Rate what do you include?

Crimsontide » Wed Apr 23, 2014 2:32 pm I can't see paying down debt as being "savings", the debt represents money that has already been spent = spending... If you are prepaying a mortgage to reduce the total interest paid then you can start counting those savings once the loan is paid in ...
by YDNAL
Wed Apr 23, 2014 2:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings Rate what do you include?
Replies: 35
Views: 1979

Re: Real Estate Investing

Andymoler58 wrote:What does everyone think about real estate?

I think it's one of the worst investments out there regardless of the interest rates when you factor in the taxes, maintenance, transaction costs, and illiquidity.


Really?
by YDNAL
Wed Apr 23, 2014 1:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate Investing
Replies: 11
Views: 735

Re: Please explain a 3% SWR to me

I try and try but I just can't wrap my head around someone needing 33x for a 30 year retirement. It seems if that is true it could only be because of too much risk in the portfolio. I know I am missing something. Help bring me in from the dark. Perhaps you are "missing" that NO ONE knows ...
by YDNAL
Wed Apr 23, 2014 1:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please explain a 3% SWR to me
Replies: 25
Views: 1005

Re: Bogle: Tilt To Corporates For More Yield

Of course you could not read the mind of Mr. Bogle but if you would happen to know his position or if anyone else has an opinion as to the problem with this index fund (VWEHX), please share. this index (VWEHX) would need to be held in a tax advantage account, but offers no more risk than historical...
by YDNAL
Wed Apr 23, 2014 8:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Tilt To Corporates For More Yield
Replies: 64
Views: 6220

Re: Does Asset Allocation beat the S&P 500?

thethinker » Wed Apr 23, 2014 12:10 am can you or someone else explain why only the stock market can drop 50% but not a 3-4 fund portfolio? thank you to everyone for the great education. i am learning a lot Because "the market" (whatever that means to you) and the other "3-4 funds&qu...
by YDNAL
Wed Apr 23, 2014 7:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Asset Allocation beat the S&P 500?
Replies: 71
Views: 2885

Re: Mortgage = negative bond, Rent = negative income?

harikaried » Tue Apr 22, 2014 2:24 am Mathematically, mortgages act like negative bonds, and some people say to adjust one's asset allocation to compensate. Rent then should also have an equivalent of negative income, i.e. expense. But I think things look differently depending on where people are c...
by YDNAL
Tue Apr 22, 2014 4:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage = negative bond, Rent = negative income?
Replies: 6
Views: 815

Re: Does Asset Allocation beat the S&P 500?

I left your chart out to save space, but this is a great tool. would you be able to please share with me the link you used to compare such funds? That would a great educational tool for me with this topic and future questions I might have. thank you for the post!! I did, about 3 hours ago! YDNAL » ...
by YDNAL
Tue Apr 22, 2014 2:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Asset Allocation beat the S&P 500?
Replies: 71
Views: 2885

Re: Is social security a good investment?

Most people who ask this question don't know what Social Security includes. Are you asking about all of SS or just one part? P.S. If you are not careful, this thread will become political and either get locked or disappear. All the parts, I suppose. I'm interested from the perspective of analyzing ...
by YDNAL
Tue Apr 22, 2014 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is social security a good investment?
Replies: 33
Views: 1389

Re: Does Asset Allocation beat the S&P 500?

I came across this site which lists a group of "Lazy Portfolios". The ones I clicked on were all vanguard funds. And while the funds all intended to keep people passively investing while offering some diversity, I noticed the S&P had better returns over all 8 Portfolios in the 1year, ...
by YDNAL
Tue Apr 22, 2014 10:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Asset Allocation beat the S&P 500?
Replies: 71
Views: 2885

Re: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?

It's more relevant than the "given the low expected returns for stocks going forward, a 2% SWR seems prudent......" type prognostications. To measure "it" versus "2%" (something or other) - you must use a *relevancy meter* - where one's opinion may register higher/lowe...
by YDNAL
Tue Apr 22, 2014 10:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?
Replies: 53
Views: 2168

Re: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?

packer16 » Tue Apr 22, 2014 9:11 am For those who dismiss history are bound to repeat the mistakes that others have already experienced. Catchy phrases may sound good, buy irrelevant historical data is irrelevant - regardless of its "history." It is only irrelevant if you can find no use ...
by YDNAL
Tue Apr 22, 2014 10:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?
Replies: 53
Views: 2168

Re: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?

packer16 » Tue Apr 22, 2014 9:11 am

For those who dismiss history are bound to repeat the mistakes that others have already experienced.

Catchy phrases may sound good, buy irrelevant historical data is irrelevant - regardless of its "history."
by YDNAL
Tue Apr 22, 2014 8:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?
Replies: 53
Views: 2168

Re: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?

nisiprius » Tue Apr 22, 2014 7:46 am Jason Zweig and Jeremy Siegel had a tart exchange in 2009 on the topic of whether 1800s stock market data is accurate: Does Stock-Market Data Really Go Back 200 Years? Yes, Decent Stock Data Really Do Go Back That Far Setting aside the question of whether data f...
by YDNAL
Tue Apr 22, 2014 8:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?
Replies: 53
Views: 2168

Re: Savings Rate what do you include?

lisaac » Mon Apr 21, 2014 6:32 pm Savings Rate what do you include? for example one of the costs can be that the car just broke down and it was $1,500 to fix. So would you say your savings rate is still 30% or would you say its 25% for the year based on that? I know this makes absolutely no differe...
by YDNAL
Tue Apr 22, 2014 7:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings Rate what do you include?
Replies: 35
Views: 1979

Re: Hit your #, Still want to work, does your savings % chan

StarbuxInvestor » Sun Apr 20, 2014 1:23 am Here is the scenario. You have zero debt. You are saving 25%-30% of your income each year and you hit your number but you still want to keep working for at least a couple more years. What do you do with the 25%-30% you have been saving? Do you allow yourse...
by YDNAL
Sun Apr 20, 2014 9:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hit your #, Still want to work, does your savings % change?
Replies: 47
Views: 3822

Re: Retirement defeasance

Sard » Thu Apr 17, 2014 4:54 pm Here is a plan to use zero coupon bonds to defease retirement cash flows. Each maturity amount represents current spending levels adjusted for inflation. IRA required distributions will be defeased with taxable bonds. Taxable funds will be invested in muni zero's. Th...
by YDNAL
Sun Apr 20, 2014 8:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement defeasance
Replies: 29
Views: 2648

Re: Does this strategy invite unnecessary risk?

new2bogle2 » Wed Apr 16, 2014 4:01 pm I listened to a portion of a Paul Merriman podcast this morning and, if I understood him correctly, he was suggesting that a younger investor who still has multiple decades of work ahead of him/her, should be slightly more invested in small cap/value stocks of ...
by YDNAL
Sun Apr 20, 2014 8:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does this strategy invite unnecessary risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2563

Re: The reverse world of retirement investing

Good article: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/waggoner/2014/04/17/reverse-world-of-retirement-investing/7830709/ The author is attempting to make a point (I guess). Let's start with an entirely fictional example of Ralph Btfsplk, the luckless retiree. Ralph managed to roll up a $1 mil...
by YDNAL
Sat Apr 19, 2014 10:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The reverse world of retirement investing
Replies: 34
Views: 3928

Re: Asset allocation over time

packer16 » Fri Apr 18, 2014 9:44 am How many of you include SS and pension as a fixed income equivalent in AA and what discount rate do you apply to these payment to estimate value? Packer Oh, oh! :shock: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=117172 http://www.bogleheads.org/foru...
by YDNAL
Fri Apr 18, 2014 10:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation over time
Replies: 23
Views: 1231

Re: Asset allocation over time

.... Say, for example, you are 30 years old and had the same allocation. Do you change by year (31 yrs old, 31% fixed income, 32 yrs old, 32% fixed income, etc.) or just at a certain point (i.e., within 10 years of retirement re-allocate)? I've seen many posts on the importance of moving to fixed i...
by YDNAL
Fri Apr 18, 2014 7:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation over time
Replies: 23
Views: 1231

Re: What % of stock market "drive" is gambling?

I'm wondering whether there's any way to approach the question objectively. No. The Stock Market is a place to participate in the earnings, earnings growth, and potential for growth of publicly-traded companies. Sometimes, some people, use it solely to satisfy their inner gambler. What % you asked....
by YDNAL
Fri Apr 18, 2014 6:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of stock market "drive" is gambling?
Replies: 36
Views: 3468

Re: Portfolio "Floor" - worst case is the mattress

A slightly off topic aside, but I thought it an interesting pragmatic example of the challenges of creating a portfolio floor. Lots of debate here between inflation adjusted vs. nominal bonds, annuities vs. ladders, taking SS early vs late and the residual risks in each. And some excellent discussi...
by YDNAL
Fri Apr 18, 2014 6:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio "Floor" - worst case is the mattress
Replies: 2
Views: 600

Re: *poor* Bogleheads

I have been a long time lurker and recent poster on this wonderful forum. Finding this site has certainly helped me fix my investment allocations and for that I am very appreciative. However, I have come to the conclusion that perhaps there should be another main forum category for those of us that...
by YDNAL
Fri Apr 18, 2014 6:16 am
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: *poor* Bogleheads
Replies: 78
Views: 5328

Re: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous

richard » Thu Apr 17, 2014 4:24 pm But if you're in the valuations matter camp, earnings yield is around 4%-5%. Add in 2% inflation and you have a nice premium above CDs. Perfect! So, tomorrow, earnings yield is around 2%-2.5%. Would you "do nothing" to your Equity risk allocation ? richa...
by YDNAL
Thu Apr 17, 2014 7:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous
Replies: 79
Views: 4098

Re: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?

... Bonds should provide both safety and income to a low cost and diversified portfolio. Total Bond Market Index Fund does just that. Define "safety." Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Investor Shares Year Ended Capital Return $10,000 CPI Avg Annual 1999 -6.77% $9,323 2.2 2000 4.18% $...
by YDNAL
Thu Apr 17, 2014 1:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4424

Re: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous

But if you're in the valuations matter camp, earnings yield is around 4%-5%. Add in 2% inflation and you have a nice premium above CDs. Perfect! So, tomorrow, earnings yield is around 2%-2.5%. Would you "do nothing" to your Equity risk allocation ? richard » Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:34 am Valua...
by YDNAL
Thu Apr 17, 2014 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous
Replies: 79
Views: 4098

Re: How is bond average maturity measured/reported

The recent thread on whither total bond fund had an interesting comparison of Vanguard reported vs Morningstar reported bond maturities. In looking at other bond funds I was puzzled by this result for Vanguard Long Term Tax Exempt: << snip >> Questions: 1) How can 3.1% bonds with maturity over 20 y...
by YDNAL
Thu Apr 17, 2014 11:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is bond average maturity measured/reported
Replies: 4
Views: 237

Re: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous

Danger is relative. If you are invested in stocks, it is probably because you need a decent stock market return to meet your goal.... It is quite likely also because poor savings rates, lofty goals, or combination. To avoid binary market timing or thresholds, and being in retirement where defense b...
by YDNAL
Thu Apr 17, 2014 11:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous
Replies: 79
Views: 4098

Re: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous

richard » Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:34 am Would you rather invest your money in the stock market in the depths of the 1973-74 stock market when P/E's were 8 or in early 2000 when market P/E's got up to about 32? In which scenario were the future returns higher? Of course valuations matter. Valuations most...
by YDNAL
Thu Apr 17, 2014 10:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous
Replies: 79
Views: 4098

Re: Another take on the "rebalancing bonus"

... Without rebalancing, you are letting your position get riskier and riskier as the stock market advances. There might be a rationale behind that, e.g. you want your "safe floor" at an absolute number rather than a relative one, but it's not what I'm doing and it's not how most people p...
by YDNAL
Wed Apr 16, 2014 1:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another take on the "rebalancing bonus"
Replies: 63
Views: 3550

Re: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?

What are you saying? That the average duration of TBM is much higher than what Vanguard says? Where did I say that? I said that the way Vanguard distributes "maturities" could be questioned. Distribution by maturity (% of fund) as of 03/31/2014  Total Bond Mkt Index Inv Under 1 Year 1.00%...
by YDNAL
Wed Apr 16, 2014 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4424

Re: IRA Required Withdrawal and Tax Inefficiency

In the course of educating myself on personal finance I see that bond funds are recommended for regular IRAs because of bond tax inefficiencies. The income that bonds pay out then becomes deferred. However, my wife and I are at the age when we must take the required annual distribution from our IRA...
by YDNAL
Wed Apr 16, 2014 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IRA Required Withdrawal and Tax Inefficiency
Replies: 9
Views: 909

Re: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?

Regardless, I take issue with how Vanguard groups maturities. These are Morningstar's numbers. http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=VBMFX&region=usa&culture=en-US Bond Maturity Breakdown VBMFX % Bonds 1 to 3 Years 24.05 3 to 5 Years 17.51 5 to 7 Years 11.28 7 to 10 Years 9.32 10...
by YDNAL
Wed Apr 16, 2014 11:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4424

Re: Please Help me understand 3-fund portfolio

thethinker » Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:49 am I thought of this as an either/or question not 'both'. If you don't mind a follow up, may I ask it this way: do people A) use the 3 fund portfolio because two funds (listed above) are expected to increase if one fund were to fall (for example, if the US Stock ...
by YDNAL
Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please Help me understand 3-fund portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 2231

Re: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?

Bustoff: Your figures do not add to 100%. These are the complete Vanguard figures: Under 1 Year 1.0% 1 - 3 Years 26.4% 3 - 5 Years 21.1% 5 - 10 Years 35.4% 10 - 20 Years 5.2% 20 - 30 Years 10.5% Over 30 Years 0.4% Best wishes. Taylor Taylor, It appears to ME that Bustoff was omitting < 5-year and s...
by YDNAL
Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4424

Re: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?

BTW, SEC Yield is only higher by 0.5% between VBTLX (2.19%) and VFIUX (1.69%). Yes, that's only a 30% differential. Nearly all bondholders would sniff at such a meager increase in income - why bother? :happy Eric 1. I'm correcting the information on a post. There's only a .6% yield difference betwe...
by YDNAL
Wed Apr 16, 2014 7:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4424

Re: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous

berntson » Tue Apr 15, 2014 11:15 pm Japan is the best-known example of a market that crashed and never came back. The usual idea is that the same could happen to the US stock market or any other stock market at any time. Some (including me) have used the case of Japan to motivate strong internatio...
by YDNAL
Wed Apr 16, 2014 7:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous
Replies: 79
Views: 4098

Re: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?

Why are total bond market funds so often recommended? There's only a .6% yield difference between it and the Vanguard Intermediate Treasury fund, and since TBM is a bit riskier, you could compensate by holding slightly more stocks with the treasury fund. Recommended?... likely because many take &qu...
by YDNAL
Tue Apr 15, 2014 4:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are total bond market funds so often recommended?
Replies: 52
Views: 4424

Re: Lost $10K in my investments past few months

Let me try again for those who don't understand the difference: I am down in the last 14 days almost exactly the same amount as I am up in the first 104 days of the year. How much was I up after the first 90 days of the year? << snip >> I don't trust my Algebra skills either. For those "who do...
by YDNAL
Tue Apr 15, 2014 3:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost $10K in my investments past few months
Replies: 36
Views: 4356

Re: Lost $10K in my investments past few months

sscritic wrote:The amount I am down for the month is almost exactly the same as the amount I am up for the year. Math quiz: how much was I up for the year on March 31?

You were up for the year on March 31 "almost exactly the same as the amount you are down for the month [of April]." :)
by YDNAL
Tue Apr 15, 2014 1:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost $10K in my investments past few months
Replies: 36
Views: 4356

Re: Lost $10K in my investments past few months

William4u » Tue Apr 15, 2014 12:07 pm It is hard to complain about Biotech funds. The FBTAX fund is up 22% over the last 12 months, even though it has dropped 20% in the last month. Not too shabby. Unless one is, as we see time and again, chasing something like IBB at $270+ to then see $210+ in a c...
by YDNAL
Tue Apr 15, 2014 12:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost $10K in my investments past few months
Replies: 36
Views: 4356

Re: Math challenged

Thanks for the welcome Duckie. What gave my noob status away? Easy! Workinghard » Mon Apr 14, 2014 7:50 pm Or just stupid. 😁 I understand about PE ratios and total returns (more or less) and get the advantage of Vanguard index funds being cheaper versus many 401k funds. Now for what I don't get. Ho...
by YDNAL
Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Math challenged
Replies: 18
Views: 1446

Re: Why is mid-cap discussed so much less than large and sma

kidfresh » Tue Apr 15, 2014 9:30 am Why is there so much discussion of large- and small-cap investing, diversification, tilting, etc. - while mid-cap is hardly discussed at all? Because people like "discussions." There are MID caps in almost everything considered "LARGE or SMALL"...
by YDNAL
Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is mid-cap discussed so much less than large and small?
Replies: 19
Views: 1245

Re: Lost $10K in my investments past few months

Stoney178 » Tue Apr 15, 2014 12:33 am in the past few months i lost about $10K in my retirement investments and my biotech mutual fund has tanked as well. is this downswing in the market temporary? whats everyone doing now..staying the course as always? What are you talking about? How much biotech ...
by YDNAL
Tue Apr 15, 2014 7:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost $10K in my investments past few months
Replies: 36
Views: 4356

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

Am I missing something? Never buy on the Wednesday before the Thursday when Dow is down -1.62% , Nasdaq down -3.10% , S&P 500 down -2.09% . Every little bit helps! Otherwise, this! :D It seems to me that you choose an asset allocation. When you are working, you direct new moneys to the asset cl...
by YDNAL
Fri Apr 11, 2014 7:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 12139

Re: A Bubble in Value Stocks?

With all the talk about value investing around these parts, it can feel like everyone and their dog and their cat is now a value investor. So I did a bit of research into the fund inflows for value and growth funds to see if I could find any evidence that value stocks are becoming increasingly popu...
by YDNAL
Fri Apr 11, 2014 7:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Bubble in Value Stocks?
Replies: 31
Views: 2466

Re: The market portfolio vs. value tilts

I have been on a personal mission to self educate about finance and investing for the past year.... I have read all of Bogle's, Berstein's, Swedroe's, and Ferri's books. I have read nearly everything Bernstein recommends on his efficient frontier website. I really like the financial history books. ...
by YDNAL
Fri Apr 11, 2014 7:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The market portfolio vs. value tilts
Replies: 66
Views: 3184

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

Am I alone in being extremely reluctant to make investments in stock right now? << snip >> Well I bought stock fund on Wednesday. On Thursday the fund is down -1%. :oops: :? It looks like you were right after all. :beer Well, at least it wasn't $500,000 or I would be down -$5000 in one day. :) Impe...
by YDNAL
Fri Apr 11, 2014 6:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 12139

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

If you are fully invested in the market and decide to sell your stock and go to cash because you want to time the market,that IS different,I am sorry. (it is not different) The math is the same. (yes, same) The money is the same but you are being much more aggressive and 100 pct completely timing t...
by YDNAL
Thu Apr 10, 2014 6:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 12139
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