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Re: The bear market is over

sambb wrote:great thread..


Yes, for those of us old enough to remember, it's sometimes helpful to relive the despair of 2009. Prevents us from being too cocky now.
by William Million
Mon Dec 22, 2014 6:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The bear market is over
Replies: 232
Views: 65901

Re: The bear market is over

pretty good call
by William Million
Sun Dec 21, 2014 12:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The bear market is over
Replies: 232
Views: 65901

Re: Flagship

At the risk of being a wet blanket, IMO the whole Flagship thing is just a marketing gimmick used to stroke egos. For most stay the course Bogleheads there isn't really any benefit that I can see. +1 While Flagship is not the be-all/end-all, it has been helpful to me to have a dedicated rep who pro...
by William Million
Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Flagship
Replies: 22
Views: 2866

Tax Question: How Does the 3.8% Kick In?

I'm trying to time the sale of some shares to minimize the tax bite. I understand there's a new 3.8% (since 2013) tax on single filers with income over $200,000 and joint filers over $250,000. Does that mean the first $200,000/250,000 does not incour that tax - only the amount beyond it? Or if incom...
by William Million
Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Question: How Does the 3.8% Kick In?
Replies: 4
Views: 688

I'm an Irrational Bond Chicken Little

While I invest nearly half my assets in equities, I fear moving some of my fixed income assets from short-term/CDs to intermediate term. I'm guessing this is irrational since the risk that equities will tumble is far greater than the risk of a slide in the NAV of intermediate term bonds. However, th...
by William Million
Sun Dec 14, 2014 8:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'm an Irrational Bond Chicken Little
Replies: 32
Views: 2941

Re: Best travel rewards card for my unique situation

The Hyatt visa is quite good, much easier to earn free nights than other cards. It has an annual fee, but you get one free night per year. Also, no service fee for charges outside the US.
by William Million
Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best travel rewards card for my unique situation
Replies: 11
Views: 1515

Re: I need to accumulate $30k over the next 2 years, how?

Given where you live, the easiest way to save quickly is on housing costs, ie live with roommates for the next 2 years. Obviously, you want to cut any big car costs, if you have them.
by William Million
Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need to accumulate $30k over the next 2 years, how?
Replies: 59
Views: 4036

Re: Better at making than investing

Almost any fixed income option will work well for you. If you're most comfortable with TIPS, then that's an option. The question is whether you want equities. I believe 0% equities for someone as "young" as you to be a mistake, even though you have enviable assets. You might want to consid...
by William Million
Sun Dec 07, 2014 6:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Better at making than investing
Replies: 17
Views: 2004

Re: Am I being cheap? [wedding/engagement ring]

The reason for being a Boglehead is so that you have enough money for the things that really matter. If the woman you love wants the engagement ring, that's a pretty good use of your savings. For some people, the ring is meaningless. For others, such as your girlfriend, it means a lot.
by William Million
Sun Dec 07, 2014 6:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I being cheap? [wedding/engagement ring]
Replies: 192
Views: 8805

Re: Anyone Had Experience with CIT Bank?

I like em. You can even call them on Sundays.

FYI, if you open CDs with them on the phone, they will sometimes give slightly higher rates than on their site.
by William Million
Sun Dec 07, 2014 6:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone Had Experience with CIT Bank?
Replies: 5
Views: 443

Re: Returning to college at age 32: Help picking a major

He might need a bit more education than the BA/BS in those fields, such as if he wants to be a CPA or tax preparer. So he should be ready for that. He's a bit behind, but honestly, many people goof off in their 20s: travel, pursue long-shot careers in sports or entertainment, or do non-marketable gr...
by William Million
Sun Dec 07, 2014 6:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Returning to college at age 32: Help picking a major
Replies: 19
Views: 1207

Re: Liquidate EUR CD now or wait one year

If you can retire debt right now on a 4% mortgage, that's a good way to rationalize it. No one can predict exchange rates, but I'd be reluctant to bet on the Euro right now.
by William Million
Sat Dec 06, 2014 11:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Liquidate EUR CD now or wait one year
Replies: 11
Views: 554

Re: Why So Many Used Prius for Sale?

OP is right. In my areas, lots of competitively priced Priuses for sale. Great time to buy while fuel is cheap.
by William Million
Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why So Many Used Prius for Sale?
Replies: 51
Views: 6843

Re: Nikkei index 20+ years later.

Yes, the risk of a similar meltdown in the US is remote but possible. That's why I'm only 45% stocks a few years from retirement. I want to cap my losses at 30% in disaster scenario, prolonged down market.
by William Million
Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nikkei index 20+ years later.
Replies: 9
Views: 1603

Re: Strong Dollar Clobbers Returns of Foreign-Stock Funds

One analyst who foresees nearly dollar/euro parity by end of 2015: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/euro-may-fall-to-1-07-by-end-of-2015-barth-says-1~wXkfQyRM~feKy4argl7w.html?cmpid=yhoo Obviously, Bogleheads take any prediction with a grain of salt, but it does underscore the view that the dollar cur...
by William Million
Sat Dec 06, 2014 8:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strong Dollar Clobbers Returns of Foreign-Stock Funds
Replies: 26
Views: 2664

Re: Strong Dollar Clobbers Returns of Foreign-Stock Funds

As a holder of these, I'm not really seeing a buying opportunity at this point, even though the returns have been less than expected due to currency fluctuations. I'm not rebalancing into international. Can you explain why you do not consider these not a buying opportunity? Is it because that are n...
by William Million
Thu Dec 04, 2014 6:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strong Dollar Clobbers Returns of Foreign-Stock Funds
Replies: 26
Views: 2664

Re: Strong Dollar Clobbers Returns of Foreign-Stock Funds

and keep in mind many still consider the dollar undervalued at $1.23 : EU 1. Of course, if we saw something closer to parity with the euro, it might be a good buying opportunity for those holding dollars
by William Million
Wed Dec 03, 2014 6:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strong Dollar Clobbers Returns of Foreign-Stock Funds
Replies: 26
Views: 2664

Re: Best CD rates ...

Vanguard's brokered CDs are not competitive at current rates. Since risk on brokered CDs is slightly higher than on ordinary CDs, there has to be an interest rate premium. Risk is you need to sell before term is up: With a brokered CD, you have to take what the market will give you. With an ordinar...
by William Million
Tue Dec 02, 2014 11:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best CD rates ...
Replies: 49
Views: 4372

Re: Best CD rates ...

Vanguard's brokered CDs are not competitive at current rates. Since risk on brokered CDs is slightly higher than on ordinary CDs, there has to be an interest rate premium. Risk is you need to sell before term is up: With a brokered CD, you have to take what the market will give you. With an ordinary...
by William Million
Tue Dec 02, 2014 6:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best CD rates ...
Replies: 49
Views: 4372

Re: I'm getting Slaughtered in stocks

Thanks for sharing. Don't miss the opportunity for loss harvesting. You can always buy similar stocks when you dump the losers (if you really want to).
by William Million
Sat Nov 29, 2014 8:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm getting Slaughtered in stocks
Replies: 43
Views: 5861

Re: Just Got 2.45% CD at CIT

I suspect PenFed's high interest days are over. They are now enjoying the payoff of high interest rates: inattentive investors letting their CDs roll over at low interest rates. Same, perhaps, with Ally. How many investors who shopped around the highest CDs rates 5 years ago and ended up at PenFed a...
by William Million
Thu Nov 27, 2014 10:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just Got 2.45% CD at CIT
Replies: 12
Views: 3106

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates - Is the 4% rule still good?

Good debate here. Bogleheads tend to be instinctive savers and cautious spenders. For that reason, have a lot of extremely low SWRs on this board. I personally consider anything under 3% ridiculously conservative. As a previous poster mentioned, for many of us there are two types of SWR failures - a...
by William Million
Thu Nov 27, 2014 9:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates - Is the 4% rule still good?
Replies: 84
Views: 7965

Re: Just Got 2.45% CD at CIT

Advertised rate for jumbo, 5-year CD is 2.35% but they're willing to go to 2.45% (mostly unadvertised) for anyone opening their first CD with them. Old stalwarts Ally and Pentagon Federal are languishing at 2% and 1.76%, respectively. Barclays also rather high at 2.25%. Main downside with CIT is th...
by William Million
Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just Got 2.45% CD at CIT
Replies: 12
Views: 3106

Just Got 2.45% CD at CIT

Advertised rate for jumbo, 5-year CD is 2.35% but they're willing to go to 2.45% (mostly unadvertised) for anyone opening their first CD with them. Old stalwarts Ally and Pentagon Federal are languishing at 2% and 1.76%, respectively. Barclays also rather high at 2.25%. Main downside with CIT is the...
by William Million
Sat Nov 22, 2014 2:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just Got 2.45% CD at CIT
Replies: 12
Views: 3106

Re: Winter Coat

I really like this wool coat on Amazon. Works well for a thin frame if you want something more fashionable than a traditional peacoat or down jacket. The coupon code on the page brings it down to about 100 bucks. Similar coat in Nordstrom for a lot more. http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00BW11SUC/r...
by William Million
Wed Nov 19, 2014 6:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Winter Coat
Replies: 51
Views: 5106

Re: Bob Brinker portfolio

Brinker has done better than some a market timer. He's been right about the direction of the market half the time.
by William Million
Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bob Brinker portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 6671

Re: How can I stop feeling depressed about my finances?

Don't worry, man, 26, debt-free and well educated, most of us middle-aged guys with 7 or 8 figure net worth would trade places with you in a heartbeat. You got nothing but options: - You like teaching? A Cambridge TESL certificate takes 2 months, costs about $2,000 and will get you employment in man...
by William Million
Fri Oct 10, 2014 7:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How can I stop feeling depressed about my finances?
Replies: 130
Views: 14838

Re: Costco:is it worth it for just two people?

Costco is OK, but not for me.

I seem to get similar prices buying from Trader Joes and local supermarket on sale. The local Costco is too far, and I never like buying larger quantities than I need (fear of obesity and limited storage issues at home).
by William Million
Sun Aug 31, 2014 11:21 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco:is it worth it for just two people?
Replies: 143
Views: 13070

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

We have no way of knowing whether returns going forward will be lower or higher. It's highly speculative to guess. However, dropping to a 2% SWR is absurdly conservative, in my opinion, based on the current research. A normal 65 year old retiree can plan for a 30-year retirement at 4% SWR.
by William Million
Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 189
Views: 13040

Re: No car for 10 years - should I scratch the itch?

I just bought a Jeep Commander but also commute on public transport. But I like to use it to drive to the ski slopes and it's great having the hitch to move the family's mountain bikes around. However, I did buy used. Good thing about Jeeps (especially Wrangler) is they don't depreciate beyond a cer...
by William Million
Thu Aug 28, 2014 7:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: No car for 10 years - should I scratch the itch?
Replies: 28
Views: 2283

Re: Do you tip on the tax? [Restaurants]

15 for so-so service, 20 for good service, pre-tax but rounded up.
by William Million
Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you tip on the tax? [Restaurants]
Replies: 124
Views: 5595

Re: Where do you buy clothes?

Gotta look professional for my job. Shirts - I like Jos A Bank Traveler on sale. They have some odd sizes. I can't wear standard sizes. Suits - I buy custom-made when in Asia. I've had them made for as much as $400 for a very high-end Thai suit, but I also get an awful lot of compliments on my $80 s...
by William Million
Mon Aug 11, 2014 9:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where do you buy clothes?
Replies: 105
Views: 9989

Re: Saving for Adoption

Adoption is great, but just a few thoughts: - International adoption has become very complicated as demand for babies in the rich countries, coupled with desperate need for $ in poor countries, has fostered an unsavory business model. As the Hague Convention (and its higher standards) has been adopt...
by William Million
Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Saving for Adoption
Replies: 14
Views: 1458

Re: Fresh Out of College - Advice Appreciated

Even if you messed up on the 2 insurance products (yes, you should drop both of them), you're doing awesome for your age - minimal debt and a great salary. Put as much as possible into retirement accounts invested in equities, and you'll have a secure retirement. Again, congratulations.
by William Million
Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fresh Out of College - Advice Appreciated
Replies: 12
Views: 1263

Re: Why I can't be a day trader.

You have to remind yourself that no one is able to buy at the lowest point, then sell at the highest.
by William Million
Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why I can't be a day trader.
Replies: 38
Views: 3101

Re: 24 Years Old Looking for Conservative, Inflation Hedged

You really need to invest in equities. Over a 40 year period (until retirement), it might be your most conservative investment. If you put in money out of every pay check, it will be dollar cost averaged, further mitigating your risk.
by William Million
Wed Jul 16, 2014 9:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 24 Years Old Looking for Conservative, Inflation Hedged Port
Replies: 10
Views: 816

Re: Teacher Considering Career Change

Let's see: Maybe time to think outside the box. You're a Boglehead and you picked public over private school partly due to the money, so compensation is an important factor for you. However, education is not always a high income field. Also, you appear to be young and free. OK, why not take a teachi...
by William Million
Wed Jul 16, 2014 9:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Teacher Considering Career Change
Replies: 49
Views: 4051

Re: Is Market on "Wrong Side of History"?

The market would probably be 1,000 or 2,000 points lower right now if not for extreme Fed policies. So, a plunge followed by a long flat if not down market is sure to happen when the Fed is forced to reverse course by some event such as an unexpected spike in inflation. The boglehead approach is to...
by William Million
Thu Jul 10, 2014 5:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Market on "Wrong Side of History"?
Replies: 22
Views: 2773

Re: Best website for airfare?

I like cheapoair to find the best fare, then I usually book it directly on the airline's own site (better if complications arise).
by William Million
Sat Jul 05, 2014 10:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best website for airfare?
Replies: 20
Views: 3177

Re: Why is Tilting and Slice&Dice so popular in this forum?

placeholder wrote:Why would I care what "many investors" do as I know I can maintain my allocation long term.


I don't know you but question is, after how many years of substandard returns tilting s/v would you abandon course - 5, 10, 15? It often takes a long time to realize the s/v premium.
by William Million
Fri Jun 13, 2014 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tilting and Slice&Dice so popular in this forum?
Replies: 110
Views: 6558

Re: Why is Tilting and Slice&Dice so popular in this forum?

Problem with small value tilt is not whether it works - I believe it does. Problem is how long it might take to work. If investors tilt small value and lag the market for 1 year, most will stick it out. At 5 years, many would bail. And at 10 years of returns lagging the S&P 500, the rest give up...
by William Million
Fri Jun 13, 2014 11:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tilting and Slice&Dice so popular in this forum?
Replies: 110
Views: 6558

Re: Still Nuts to Buy New Car for 10 Months?

Thanks to everyone for replying. Problem with long-term renting is I'm not finding anything under $650/month. For 10 months, I'm looking at about $8,000. For that reason, I thought buying a new car for $15,000, then reselling for $11,000-12,000 might be best. However, the hassle of selling is unplea...
by William Million
Tue Jun 10, 2014 4:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Still Nuts to Buy New Car for 10 Months?
Replies: 20
Views: 1936

Re: Still Nuts to Buy New Car for 10 Months?

Good idea to look at the end of someone else's lease, thanks.

As far as buying 1-year old, I'm seeing new Corollas under $15,000. Very hard to get a late-model, low mileage Corolla at much lower.
by William Million
Sun Jun 08, 2014 8:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Still Nuts to Buy New Car for 10 Months?
Replies: 20
Views: 1936

Still Nuts to Buy New Car for 10 Months?

I'll be in an area for 10 months related to work and will need a car. It'll be a stressful time work-wise and I don't want to deal with mechanics, if possible. I know it sounds nuts but as best I can tell, it might not be a bad idea idea to buy a new Toyota Corolla or Nissan Sentra. If I get a low p...
by William Million
Sun Jun 08, 2014 8:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Still Nuts to Buy New Car for 10 Months?
Replies: 20
Views: 1936

When Brokers Buy Shares for Higher Prices

Something to watch out for. Tiny variations in prices can mean big bucks to those buying and selling them: "What happens when you buy shares on the stock exchange? Probably not what you expect. The moment you click "buy" on your broker's website, you think that the computer sends your...
by William Million
Sat May 17, 2014 5:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Brokers Buy Shares for Higher Prices
Replies: 7
Views: 712

Re: "When Vix is high it's time to buy"

About as predictive as PE10, MACD, moving averages and other faddish stock indicators. They all work . . . until they don't.
by William Million
Fri May 09, 2014 9:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "When Vix is high it's time to buy"
Replies: 25
Views: 3169

Re: Car Advice

In recent years, prices for late model used cars have crept up, especially for heavily demand Hondas and Toyotas. In many cases, you'll do better buying new if you can cut a good deal, perhaps with late-summer rebates late in the model year. Or you can buy a very old car - 7 more more years old - an...
by William Million
Sun May 04, 2014 2:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car Advice
Replies: 32
Views: 3068

Re: Worst Case Scenario, How Far Could Limited Term Drop?

Many thanks. I think I can live with that as a disaster scenario. Seems wasteful to park the money in money market with negative real rates.
by William Million
Fri Apr 25, 2014 10:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Worst Case Scenario, How Far Could Limited Term Drop?
Replies: 13
Views: 2245

Worst Case Scenario, How Far Could Limited Term Drop?

I want to put a chunk in Limited Term Tax Exempt (VMLTX). I might use the money for down payment in 2-4 years. Worst case scenario, how far could it drop?
by William Million
Fri Apr 25, 2014 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Worst Case Scenario, How Far Could Limited Term Drop?
Replies: 13
Views: 2245
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