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Re: Buying first home in SF - gut check

While $1.8 mllion is not unheard of for a house in a nice neighborhood in San Francisco, you are taking on high expenses, such as taxes. Keep in mind you can also get a decent house in the Bay Area for "only" $1 million." You could, for instance, get a nice house in Alameda for $1mill...
by William Million
Fri Mar 28, 2014 2:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying first home in SF - gut check
Replies: 87
Views: 7105

Re: Buying Condo where I'm renting in DC suburbs (Montgomery

- You say you have $50,000 in taxable and $70,000 in tax-sheltered accounts. You didn't say how this money was invested. If parked in G-fund and money market, you're not really taking advantage of opportunity cost of not buying. If it's mostly in equities (makes sense for your age), then you're not ...
by William Million
Thu Mar 27, 2014 8:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying Condo where I'm renting in DC suburbs (Montgomery)
Replies: 10
Views: 799

Re: Senior retiring to Florida - Rent vs Own?

If unsure whether to rent or own, well, that's your answer: rent.
by William Million
Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Senior retiring to Florida - Rent vs Own?
Replies: 6
Views: 747

Re: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reason

Very well said. But of course you'll draw the ire of the PE10 cult.
by William Million
Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reasonable
Replies: 54
Views: 5853

Re: Less Obvious Travel Spots

Nicaragua is very interesting and cheap - a fraction of the tourists in Costa Rica. Not as dangerous as other Central American destinations.

The Pantanal is Brazil is spectacular but still does not amount of tourists.

Interior Bali is amazing.

In Vietnam, Hue, Hoi An and Da Nang are unbelievable.
by William Million
Sun Feb 09, 2014 7:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: .....
Replies: 64
Views: 5130

omg, did I miss the buying opportunity in stocks?

2.6% gain on Thursday/Friday. Maybe it wasn't even a correction.
by William Million
Sat Feb 08, 2014 12:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: omg, did I miss the buying opportunity in stocks?
Replies: 54
Views: 6422

Increasing Stock Allocation in Retirement

Today's WSJ has an article: "How Much Stock Should You Own in Retirement? The thinking on how to answer this critical question is changing" I had never considered it, but the article makes an interesting case for starting low at 20-50%, then ramping back up to 40-80%. Argument for having l...
by William Million
Tue Feb 04, 2014 9:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increasing Stock Allocation in Retirement
Replies: 1
Views: 317

Re: TAYLOR'S UPCOMING 90th BIRTHDAY

amazing how much we've all learned from you
by William Million
Wed Jan 22, 2014 7:09 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Taylor's 90th Birthday
Replies: 272
Views: 12684

Re: Best investment for money I will want in five years?

Pentagon Federal Credit Union is over 3% for 5 year CD. If rates spike, early redemption is 1 year of interest. Keep it for only 2 year and you already get a 1.5% rate. Not sure you can beat that without taking on more risk.
by William Million
Sun Dec 29, 2013 10:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best investment for money I will want in five years?
Replies: 19
Views: 1721

Re: Retiring in a "no state income tax state"?

State taxes are a factor for me in choosing a retirement locale. I can control spending, even by purchasing a fuel efficient car, so sales taxes are less of a concern. I will also look at property taxes. However, I can't see spending an extra $5,000-10,000/yr on state income taxes. Not worth it. I c...
by William Million
Sat Dec 28, 2013 11:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring in a "no state income tax state"?
Replies: 101
Views: 11660

Re: Please Help a 36 Yr Old With $7m+ Portfolio

To avoid making mistakes. Regardless if it's $1 million or $7 million, a financial advisor (hopefully) has the discipline and experience to keep you on an investment plan regardless of what the market is doing that day. A lot of discipline is emotional, as new investors may panic and sell when the ...
by William Million
Sat Dec 28, 2013 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please Help a 36 Yr Old With $7m+ Portfolio
Replies: 66
Views: 10481

Re: Please Help a 36 Yr Old With $7m+ Portfolio

Congratulations on great success. Probably you should be giving me advice, rather than the other way around. Anyway, this is my personal opinion: - I disagree with Lady Geek and don't believe you need professional financial management. The Boglehead principles apply for a $500,000 portfolio, just as...
by William Million
Wed Dec 25, 2013 12:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please Help a 36 Yr Old With $7m+ Portfolio
Replies: 66
Views: 10481

Re: Shiller warns of possible bubbles

Shiller also called 1996 a bubble. Turns out that Shiller was right. If you had sold out of Total Stock Market Fund and invested in Total Bond Market Fund in 1996 and stayed out of stocks for 12 years until PE10 dipped below the mean of 16 in 2008, you would have twice as much money now. It took un...
by William Million
Mon Dec 02, 2013 12:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller warns of possible bubbles
Replies: 24
Views: 2097

Re: Advantages to Dual Citizenship?

The reasons OP states for wanting dual citizenship are somewhat trivial and not worth the potential downsides. There are sometimes good reasons to take on another citizenship. If you are from a developing country, it is a pain to solicit visas whenever you want to go somewhere, so citizenship in an ...
by William Million
Sun Nov 24, 2013 7:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advantages to Dual Citizenship?
Replies: 34
Views: 2788

Re: Very Early Retirement: SWR, Annuities & Questions..

With a 50 year horizon and no new earnings flowing in, I believe international diversification becomes very important. The world will look very different in 50 years. Maybe Burma will be the next Switzerland.
by William Million
Sat Nov 23, 2013 8:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very Early Retirement: SWR, Annuities & Questions..
Replies: 72
Views: 3432

Emerging Markets Really Lag This Year

Fascinating how different 2013 has been for U.S. versus emerging markets:

500 Index Admiral YTD 28.42%
Emerging Market Adrimal YTD -4.67%

Might be re-balancing opportunity for those who do not use the Total World Stock Index.
by William Million
Sun Nov 17, 2013 8:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Really Lag This Year
Replies: 17
Views: 1931

Re: Ally CD Early Withdrawal Penalty changing Dec. 7

An expected change, given how advantageous Ally's terms have been. Many of us have exploited long-term, Ally CDs in our fixed income allotments, enjoying FDIC protection and the rates of longer term bonds - without the risk of rising rates (in this low rate environment) due to modest penalties for c...
by William Million
Wed Oct 30, 2013 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally CD Early Withdrawal Penalty changing Dec. 7
Replies: 19
Views: 2382

Re: Want to have kids, scared of the financial consequences

A lot of tangents here. Anyway, as to the OP's question, I'd recommend not quitting your job for now. If after the birth, you can't take being away from junior or entrusting him to a stranger, then you can always quit later. Keeps your options open and you'll be better positioned to answer your own ...
by William Million
Fri Oct 25, 2013 5:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Want to have kids, scared of the financial consequences
Replies: 95
Views: 6132

Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?

PE10 now seems like an entrenched instance of Boglehead group-think. I see 2 major threads debating this useful, yet extremely narrow, value metric. How can this be groupthink if it's being debated? I'm not sure you use that term to mean what others do. . . . . because so many posters here now have...
by William Million
Wed Oct 16, 2013 4:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Replies: 73
Views: 4496

Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?

PE10 now seems like an entrenched instance of Boglehead group-think. I see 2 major threads debating this useful, yet extremely narrow, value metric. I'm amazed there seem to be dozens of Bogleheads on this board who now base their investment or future earnings expectations on such a limited yeardsti...
by William Million
Wed Oct 16, 2013 3:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Replies: 73
Views: 4496

Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?

It's a logical fallacy to dismiss commonly held points of view as "group think" or "faith" when the other option is that they are held because of reasoned conclusions. How do you know which motivation people have when you read their posts. The question is: Would a Boglehead who ...
by William Million
Tue Oct 15, 2013 9:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Replies: 73
Views: 4496

Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?

Faith that market timing does not work. Faith that the most effective way to discredit any idea one disagrees with is to call it "market timing". Did any Boglehead actually not try to time the bond market in the past 2 years? :shock: I moved money to 5-year CDs instead of bonds. I don't k...
by William Million
Tue Oct 15, 2013 9:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Replies: 73
Views: 4496

Re: The cult of PE10 - so what?

We have PE10 because we have a decimal (base-10) number system. We came to use base-10 because our ancestors had 10 fingers. There is no logical reason that PE10 is a more accurate predictor than PE7 or PE9 or PE11. While it is due to cultural evolution that we have base-10 and PE10, we should not e...
by William Million
Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The cult of PE10 - so what?
Replies: 69
Views: 4074

Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?

Opinions on your two examples are very diverse. That doesn't sound like group-think to me. When you have 5 successive posts in a thread agreeing on an idea far outside the investing mainstream - and quite apart from anything John Bogle believes in - you have, arguably, mutually-reinforcing group-th...
by William Million
Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Replies: 73
Views: 4496

Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?

Any Bogleheads ideas repeatedly espoused here . . . to the extent that group-think occurs? That is, "the psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people, in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an incorrect or deviant decision-making outcome." (W...
by William Million
Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Replies: 73
Views: 4496

Re: When even a Boglehead would buy gold?

Gold might be helpful when everthing else tanks. However, I wouldn't touch it at present levels.
by William Million
Tue Oct 15, 2013 4:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When even a Boglehead would buy gold?
Replies: 35
Views: 2287

Re: When Bogleheads tell you it's different this time

I don't disagree with OP that bonds are overpriced. However, I will not overweight stocks for the following reasons: - I've already reached The Number and don't want to put my retirement at risk. - Stocks have surged since 2009. I hope they continue to surge but fear recency bias from those advocati...
by William Million
Mon Oct 14, 2013 11:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bogleheads tell you it's different this time
Replies: 48
Views: 4720

When even a Boglehead would buy gold?

I wonder how many Bogleheads would purchase gold if it continued to tumble to, say, 500-600 bucks. While gold is generally not a great long-term investment, the key seems to be buying this volatile asset at the low end.
by William Million
Mon Oct 14, 2013 7:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When even a Boglehead would buy gold?
Replies: 35
Views: 2287

Re: Vgpmx down 40%, time to buy?

Not sure why Bogleheads would reject a main Boglehead tenet of index investing by buying a managed (actually badly-managed) fund rather than an index.
by William Million
Sun Oct 13, 2013 11:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgpmx down 40%, time to buy?
Replies: 27
Views: 4196

Re: Vgpmx down 40%, time to buy?

Noteworthy how poorly this managed fund lags its benchmark, suggesting inept fund management. According to the numbers on Morningstar.com, this fund (VGPMX) has outperformed stocks in its category for most time periods. According to the Vanguard site, performance has been: 1 yr VGPMX: –37.16% Bench...
by William Million
Sun Oct 13, 2013 10:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgpmx down 40%, time to buy?
Replies: 27
Views: 4196

Re: Vgpmx down 40%, time to buy?

Noteworthy how poorly this managed fund lags its benchmark, suggesting inept fund management.
by William Million
Sun Oct 13, 2013 7:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgpmx down 40%, time to buy?
Replies: 27
Views: 4196

Re: The new safe withdrawal rate

Very interesting debate, as always. I'm with Homer. 4% is fine for most people. 3.5% is a near guarantee. Every chat group takes on its own unique features. Over the past years, some Bogleheads, who are conservative anyway by nature, have competed with each other in making the case for the lowest po...
by William Million
Sat Oct 05, 2013 10:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The new safe withdrawal rate
Replies: 285
Views: 17626

Goldman says best stock opportunities in years

For what it's worth, Goldman says the time is now to double-down in stocks, at least those with good growth prospects:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-stock-market-presenting-investment-211016510.html
by William Million
Wed Sep 25, 2013 6:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman says best stock opportunities in years
Replies: 16
Views: 2678

Re: Anything Better Than CDs for Conservative Fixed Income?

Vanguard was offering a CIT 5 year CD at 2.10 on Friday; funny thing, go to the CIT site and they post it a 1.9%, maybe that will change by the issue date (9/25) of the Vanguard offering. No easy way out early on these brokered models, but this is for my annual spending allowance so no consideratio...
by William Million
Sun Sep 22, 2013 3:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anything Better Than CDs for Conservative Fixed Income?
Replies: 12
Views: 2344

Re: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?

PE10 (and PE) adherents would have missed some large market run-ups of the past years. In other words, they would have bailed too early. I can't see any evidence PE10 beats rebalancing based on desired equity allocation.
by William Million
Sun Sep 22, 2013 8:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?
Replies: 290
Views: 22791

Re: Anything Better Than CDs for Conservative Fixed Income?

CDs are certainly worthy of consideration in a rising interest rate environment. Who says it has to be all or nothing decision? An investor could do both bank CDs and Vanguard Total Bond Market. I would certain buy some I Bonds too. If you wanted to do an all CD fixed income portfolio, one could do...
by William Million
Sat Sep 21, 2013 9:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anything Better Than CDs for Conservative Fixed Income?
Replies: 12
Views: 2344

Re: Anything Better Than CDs for Conservative Fixed Income?

Yeah, true. I picked Barclays as an example since some of the high interest accounts are with small, rinky-dink credit unions. The accounts are insured but I like to know the bank and its reputation.
by William Million
Sat Sep 21, 2013 2:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anything Better Than CDs for Conservative Fixed Income?
Replies: 12
Views: 2344

Anything Better Than CDs for Conservative Fixed Income?

If there is, I can't find it now. 5-year, FDIC-insured CD with, for example, Barclays now 1.9%. 6-month penalty for early withdrawal. So even for a year, the interest rate is competitive at just south of 1% (after paying the penalty). CDs give competitive rates, protection and the ability of cash ou...
by William Million
Sat Sep 21, 2013 12:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anything Better Than CDs for Conservative Fixed Income?
Replies: 12
Views: 2344

Re: "Stocks are about to plunge, Wells Fargo warns"

That [(removed) --admin LadyGeek] prediction suggests the bull might still run.
by William Million
Fri Sep 20, 2013 1:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks are about to plunge, Wells Fargo warns"
Replies: 33
Views: 5858

Re: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?

Amazing that anyone would be naive enough to buy stocks based primarily on PE10. Just creates more opportunities for asset allocation rebalancers to cash in.
by William Million
Thu Sep 19, 2013 7:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?
Replies: 290
Views: 22791

Re: Federal Retirees: Why Medicare?

I look at it as an either/or. However, retirees spending a great deal of time abroad are better off in FEHB since Medicare provides no coverage outside the U.S.
by William Million
Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:15 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Federal Retirees: Why Medicare?
Replies: 58
Views: 5821

Re: TIPS - Going Down with the Ship?

There are few investments easier to market-time than TIPS: Rule 1 Over 2% real: Buy! Under 2% real: Sell! Rule 2 Never buy a TIPS fund. The advantage of a fund is to diversify risk. Doesn't apply with TIPS. Plus, a fund defeats one main purpose of TIPS: Not to lose money after inflation. What am I m...
by William Million
Fri Sep 13, 2013 5:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS - Going Down with the Ship?
Replies: 112
Views: 12437

Re: emerging markets have investors panicking

I would strongly urge using PE10 only as one valuation metric alongside others. PE10 has some utility but also inherent flaws (such as anomalies or strange swings captured within the 10 years). The fact that Schiller picked 10 years reflects a certain marketability and our use of base-10 that dates ...
by William Million
Sun Sep 08, 2013 7:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: emerging markets have investors panicking
Replies: 142
Views: 13111

Re: 10 year Treasury Rate Hits 3%

Yeah, CD rates have crept up but don't really reflect that new reality yet. At some point, it'll be time to take penalties for early cancellation and reinvest in higher-interest CDs. Anyway, for those who like TIPS, VIPSX is down nearly 10% this year. It's gradually reaching a reasonable entry-point...
by William Million
Sat Sep 07, 2013 6:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 10 year Treasury Rate Hits 3%
Replies: 23
Views: 3713

Re: TIPS might soon be worth buying again

No, but I do think, given a particular dynamic, TIPS were overbought. I like to buy TIPS when the real interest rate pops above 2% and start backing up the truck above 2.5. I like to sell them when the rate falls below 1%.
by William Million
Sat Aug 31, 2013 10:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS might soon be worth buying again
Replies: 9
Views: 1603

TIPS might soon be worth buying again

Good gauge is VIPSX, down 8.41% YTD. Below $12/share (It's current 13.25, down from around $15), many Bogleheads start "backing up the truck." Seems to be one of the few areas where devout Bogleheads engage in gentle market-timing.
by William Million
Sat Aug 31, 2013 10:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS might soon be worth buying again
Replies: 9
Views: 1603

Re: India Crisis

The Indian ETFs seem to be down about 20-30% on the year. Not enough of a drop for me - I buy emerging markets when they are down at least 70%.
by William Million
Sat Aug 24, 2013 12:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: India Crisis
Replies: 49
Views: 5411

Re: Good time for precious metals and mining?

Thanks to everyone for the comments. I see the dangers.
by William Million
Sat Aug 24, 2013 6:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time for precious metals and mining?
Replies: 17
Views: 1734

Good time for precious metals and mining?

Some might see them, such as VGPMX, as a hedge against future global troubles. These funds are way down.
by William Million
Fri Aug 23, 2013 4:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time for precious metals and mining?
Replies: 17
Views: 1734

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau on the 4% Rule

yes during the BAD times but those BAD times occurred during a very long secular uptrend in a country which proved to be a very special case. We need a going forward rule which will work during the BAD times if in the next half century we aren't so special. We have one here. It's called Variable Pe...
by William Million
Mon Aug 19, 2013 8:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Wade Pfau on the 4% Rule
Replies: 124
Views: 9900
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