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Re: Why I can't be a day trader.

You have to remind yourself that no one is able to buy at the lowest point, then sell at the highest.
by William Million
Wed Jul 16, 2014 11:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why I can't be a day trader.
Replies: 38
Views: 2933

Re: 24 Years Old Looking for Conservative, Inflation Hedged

You really need to invest in equities. Over a 40 year period (until retirement), it might be your most conservative investment. If you put in money out of every pay check, it will be dollar cost averaged, further mitigating your risk.
by William Million
Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 24 Years Old Looking for Conservative, Inflation Hedged Port
Replies: 10
Views: 720

Re: Teacher Considering Career Change

Let's see: Maybe time to think outside the box. You're a Boglehead and you picked public over private school partly due to the money, so compensation is an important factor for you. However, education is not always a high income field. Also, you appear to be young and free. OK, why not take a teachi...
by William Million
Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Teacher Considering Career Change
Replies: 49
Views: 3287

Re: Is Market on "Wrong Side of History"?

The market would probably be 1,000 or 2,000 points lower right now if not for extreme Fed policies. So, a plunge followed by a long flat if not down market is sure to happen when the Fed is forced to reverse course by some event such as an unexpected spike in inflation. The boglehead approach is to...
by William Million
Thu Jul 10, 2014 6:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Market on "Wrong Side of History"?
Replies: 22
Views: 2682

Re: Best website for airfare?

I like cheapoair to find the best fare, then I usually book it directly on the airline's own site (better if complications arise).
by William Million
Sat Jul 05, 2014 11:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best website for airfare?
Replies: 20
Views: 2826

Re: Why is Tilting and Slice&Dice so popular in this forum?

placeholder wrote:Why would I care what "many investors" do as I know I can maintain my allocation long term.


I don't know you but question is, after how many years of substandard returns tilting s/v would you abandon course - 5, 10, 15? It often takes a long time to realize the s/v premium.
by William Million
Fri Jun 13, 2014 4:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tilting and Slice&Dice so popular in this forum?
Replies: 110
Views: 6153

Re: Why is Tilting and Slice&Dice so popular in this forum?

Problem with small value tilt is not whether it works - I believe it does. Problem is how long it might take to work. If investors tilt small value and lag the market for 1 year, most will stick it out. At 5 years, many would bail. And at 10 years of returns lagging the S&P 500, the rest give up...
by William Million
Fri Jun 13, 2014 12:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tilting and Slice&Dice so popular in this forum?
Replies: 110
Views: 6153

Re: Still Nuts to Buy New Car for 10 Months?

Thanks to everyone for replying. Problem with long-term renting is I'm not finding anything under $650/month. For 10 months, I'm looking at about $8,000. For that reason, I thought buying a new car for $15,000, then reselling for $11,000-12,000 might be best. However, the hassle of selling is unplea...
by William Million
Tue Jun 10, 2014 5:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Still Nuts to Buy New Car for 10 Months?
Replies: 20
Views: 1842

Re: Still Nuts to Buy New Car for 10 Months?

Good idea to look at the end of someone else's lease, thanks.

As far as buying 1-year old, I'm seeing new Corollas under $15,000. Very hard to get a late-model, low mileage Corolla at much lower.
by William Million
Sun Jun 08, 2014 9:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Still Nuts to Buy New Car for 10 Months?
Replies: 20
Views: 1842

Still Nuts to Buy New Car for 10 Months?

I'll be in an area for 10 months related to work and will need a car. It'll be a stressful time work-wise and I don't want to deal with mechanics, if possible. I know it sounds nuts but as best I can tell, it might not be a bad idea idea to buy a new Toyota Corolla or Nissan Sentra. If I get a low p...
by William Million
Sun Jun 08, 2014 9:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Still Nuts to Buy New Car for 10 Months?
Replies: 20
Views: 1842

When Brokers Buy Shares for Higher Prices

Something to watch out for. Tiny variations in prices can mean big bucks to those buying and selling them: "What happens when you buy shares on the stock exchange? Probably not what you expect. The moment you click "buy" on your broker's website, you think that the computer sends your...
by William Million
Sat May 17, 2014 6:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Brokers Buy Shares for Higher Prices
Replies: 7
Views: 696

Re: "When Vix is high it's time to buy"

About as predictive as PE10, MACD, moving averages and other faddish stock indicators. They all work . . . until they don't.
by William Million
Fri May 09, 2014 10:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "When Vix is high it's time to buy"
Replies: 25
Views: 2893

Re: Car Advice

In recent years, prices for late model used cars have crept up, especially for heavily demand Hondas and Toyotas. In many cases, you'll do better buying new if you can cut a good deal, perhaps with late-summer rebates late in the model year. Or you can buy a very old car - 7 more more years old - an...
by William Million
Sun May 04, 2014 3:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car Advice
Replies: 32
Views: 2878

Re: Worst Case Scenario, How Far Could Limited Term Drop?

Many thanks. I think I can live with that as a disaster scenario. Seems wasteful to park the money in money market with negative real rates.
by William Million
Fri Apr 25, 2014 11:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Worst Case Scenario, How Far Could Limited Term Drop?
Replies: 13
Views: 2216

Worst Case Scenario, How Far Could Limited Term Drop?

I want to put a chunk in Limited Term Tax Exempt (VMLTX). I might use the money for down payment in 2-4 years. Worst case scenario, how far could it drop?
by William Million
Fri Apr 25, 2014 8:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Worst Case Scenario, How Far Could Limited Term Drop?
Replies: 13
Views: 2216

Re: College Competition

Cal's a fine school, especially if you can get it for in state tuition, but a smart , grounded young person will succeed after attending any of thee UCs or State Universities.
by William Million
Fri Apr 25, 2014 6:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College Competition [locked]
Replies: 41
Views: 7731

Re: Buying first home in SF - gut check

While $1.8 mllion is not unheard of for a house in a nice neighborhood in San Francisco, you are taking on high expenses, such as taxes. Keep in mind you can also get a decent house in the Bay Area for "only" $1 million." You could, for instance, get a nice house in Alameda for $1mill...
by William Million
Fri Mar 28, 2014 2:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying first home in SF - gut check
Replies: 93
Views: 9841

Re: Buying Condo where I'm renting in DC suburbs (Montgomery

- You say you have $50,000 in taxable and $70,000 in tax-sheltered accounts. You didn't say how this money was invested. If parked in G-fund and money market, you're not really taking advantage of opportunity cost of not buying. If it's mostly in equities (makes sense for your age), then you're not ...
by William Million
Thu Mar 27, 2014 8:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying Condo where I'm renting in DC suburbs (Montgomery)
Replies: 10
Views: 866

Re: Senior retiring to Florida - Rent vs Own?

If unsure whether to rent or own, well, that's your answer: rent.
by William Million
Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Senior retiring to Florida - Rent vs Own?
Replies: 6
Views: 767

Re: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reason

Very well said. But of course you'll draw the ire of the PE10 cult.
by William Million
Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reasonable
Replies: 54
Views: 7121

Re: Less Obvious Travel Spots

Nicaragua is very interesting and cheap - a fraction of the tourists in Costa Rica. Not as dangerous as other Central American destinations.

The Pantanal is Brazil is spectacular but still does not amount of tourists.

Interior Bali is amazing.

In Vietnam, Hue, Hoi An and Da Nang are unbelievable.
by William Million
Sun Feb 09, 2014 7:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: .....
Replies: 64
Views: 5718

omg, did I miss the buying opportunity in stocks?

2.6% gain on Thursday/Friday. Maybe it wasn't even a correction.
by William Million
Sat Feb 08, 2014 12:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: omg, did I miss the buying opportunity in stocks?
Replies: 54
Views: 6538

Increasing Stock Allocation in Retirement

Today's WSJ has an article: "How Much Stock Should You Own in Retirement? The thinking on how to answer this critical question is changing" I had never considered it, but the article makes an interesting case for starting low at 20-50%, then ramping back up to 40-80%. Argument for having l...
by William Million
Tue Feb 04, 2014 9:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increasing Stock Allocation in Retirement
Replies: 1
Views: 471

Re: TAYLOR'S UPCOMING 90th BIRTHDAY

amazing how much we've all learned from you
by William Million
Wed Jan 22, 2014 7:09 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Taylor's 90th Birthday
Replies: 272
Views: 22044

Re: Best investment for money I will want in five years?

Pentagon Federal Credit Union is over 3% for 5 year CD. If rates spike, early redemption is 1 year of interest. Keep it for only 2 year and you already get a 1.5% rate. Not sure you can beat that without taking on more risk.
by William Million
Sun Dec 29, 2013 10:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best investment for money I will want in five years?
Replies: 19
Views: 1750

Re: Retiring in a "no state income tax state"?

State taxes are a factor for me in choosing a retirement locale. I can control spending, even by purchasing a fuel efficient car, so sales taxes are less of a concern. I will also look at property taxes. However, I can't see spending an extra $5,000-10,000/yr on state income taxes. Not worth it. I c...
by William Million
Sat Dec 28, 2013 11:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring in a "no state income tax state"?
Replies: 101
Views: 11768

Re: Please Help a 36 Yr Old With $7m+ Portfolio

To avoid making mistakes. Regardless if it's $1 million or $7 million, a financial advisor (hopefully) has the discipline and experience to keep you on an investment plan regardless of what the market is doing that day. A lot of discipline is emotional, as new investors may panic and sell when the ...
by William Million
Sat Dec 28, 2013 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please Help a 36 Yr Old With $7m+ Portfolio
Replies: 66
Views: 10924

Re: Please Help a 36 Yr Old With $7m+ Portfolio

Congratulations on great success. Probably you should be giving me advice, rather than the other way around. Anyway, this is my personal opinion: - I disagree with Lady Geek and don't believe you need professional financial management. The Boglehead principles apply for a $500,000 portfolio, just as...
by William Million
Wed Dec 25, 2013 12:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please Help a 36 Yr Old With $7m+ Portfolio
Replies: 66
Views: 10924

Re: Shiller warns of possible bubbles

Shiller also called 1996 a bubble. Turns out that Shiller was right. If you had sold out of Total Stock Market Fund and invested in Total Bond Market Fund in 1996 and stayed out of stocks for 12 years until PE10 dipped below the mean of 16 in 2008, you would have twice as much money now. It took un...
by William Million
Mon Dec 02, 2013 12:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller warns of possible bubbles
Replies: 24
Views: 2135

Re: Advantages to Dual Citizenship?

The reasons OP states for wanting dual citizenship are somewhat trivial and not worth the potential downsides. There are sometimes good reasons to take on another citizenship. If you are from a developing country, it is a pain to solicit visas whenever you want to go somewhere, so citizenship in an ...
by William Million
Sun Nov 24, 2013 7:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advantages to Dual Citizenship?
Replies: 34
Views: 2976

Re: Very Early Retirement: SWR, Annuities & Questions..

With a 50 year horizon and no new earnings flowing in, I believe international diversification becomes very important. The world will look very different in 50 years. Maybe Burma will be the next Switzerland.
by William Million
Sat Nov 23, 2013 8:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very Early Retirement: SWR, Annuities & Questions..
Replies: 72
Views: 3755

Emerging Markets Really Lag This Year

Fascinating how different 2013 has been for U.S. versus emerging markets:

500 Index Admiral YTD 28.42%
Emerging Market Adrimal YTD -4.67%

Might be re-balancing opportunity for those who do not use the Total World Stock Index.
by William Million
Sun Nov 17, 2013 8:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Really Lag This Year
Replies: 17
Views: 1943

Re: Ally CD Early Withdrawal Penalty changing Dec. 7

An expected change, given how advantageous Ally's terms have been. Many of us have exploited long-term, Ally CDs in our fixed income allotments, enjoying FDIC protection and the rates of longer term bonds - without the risk of rising rates (in this low rate environment) due to modest penalties for c...
by William Million
Wed Oct 30, 2013 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally CD Early Withdrawal Penalty changing Dec. 7
Replies: 19
Views: 2630

Re: Want to have kids, scared of the financial consequences

A lot of tangents here. Anyway, as to the OP's question, I'd recommend not quitting your job for now. If after the birth, you can't take being away from junior or entrusting him to a stranger, then you can always quit later. Keeps your options open and you'll be better positioned to answer your own ...
by William Million
Fri Oct 25, 2013 5:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Want to have kids, scared of the financial consequences
Replies: 95
Views: 6204

Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?

PE10 now seems like an entrenched instance of Boglehead group-think. I see 2 major threads debating this useful, yet extremely narrow, value metric. How can this be groupthink if it's being debated? I'm not sure you use that term to mean what others do. . . . . because so many posters here now have...
by William Million
Wed Oct 16, 2013 4:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Replies: 73
Views: 4533

Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?

PE10 now seems like an entrenched instance of Boglehead group-think. I see 2 major threads debating this useful, yet extremely narrow, value metric. I'm amazed there seem to be dozens of Bogleheads on this board who now base their investment or future earnings expectations on such a limited yeardsti...
by William Million
Wed Oct 16, 2013 3:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Replies: 73
Views: 4533

Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?

It's a logical fallacy to dismiss commonly held points of view as "group think" or "faith" when the other option is that they are held because of reasoned conclusions. How do you know which motivation people have when you read their posts. The question is: Would a Boglehead who ...
by William Million
Tue Oct 15, 2013 9:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Replies: 73
Views: 4533

Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?

Faith that market timing does not work. Faith that the most effective way to discredit any idea one disagrees with is to call it "market timing". Did any Boglehead actually not try to time the bond market in the past 2 years? :shock: I moved money to 5-year CDs instead of bonds. I don't k...
by William Million
Tue Oct 15, 2013 9:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Replies: 73
Views: 4533

Re: The cult of PE10 - so what?

We have PE10 because we have a decimal (base-10) number system. We came to use base-10 because our ancestors had 10 fingers. There is no logical reason that PE10 is a more accurate predictor than PE7 or PE9 or PE11. While it is due to cultural evolution that we have base-10 and PE10, we should not e...
by William Million
Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The cult of PE10 - so what?
Replies: 69
Views: 4172

Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?

Opinions on your two examples are very diverse. That doesn't sound like group-think to me. When you have 5 successive posts in a thread agreeing on an idea far outside the investing mainstream - and quite apart from anything John Bogle believes in - you have, arguably, mutually-reinforcing group-th...
by William Million
Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Replies: 73
Views: 4533

Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?

Any Bogleheads ideas repeatedly espoused here . . . to the extent that group-think occurs? That is, "the psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people, in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an incorrect or deviant decision-making outcome." (W...
by William Million
Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Replies: 73
Views: 4533

Re: When even a Boglehead would buy gold?

Gold might be helpful when everthing else tanks. However, I wouldn't touch it at present levels.
by William Million
Tue Oct 15, 2013 4:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When even a Boglehead would buy gold?
Replies: 35
Views: 2311

Re: When Bogleheads tell you it's different this time

I don't disagree with OP that bonds are overpriced. However, I will not overweight stocks for the following reasons: - I've already reached The Number and don't want to put my retirement at risk. - Stocks have surged since 2009. I hope they continue to surge but fear recency bias from those advocati...
by William Million
Mon Oct 14, 2013 11:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bogleheads tell you it's different this time
Replies: 48
Views: 4758

When even a Boglehead would buy gold?

I wonder how many Bogleheads would purchase gold if it continued to tumble to, say, 500-600 bucks. While gold is generally not a great long-term investment, the key seems to be buying this volatile asset at the low end.
by William Million
Mon Oct 14, 2013 7:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When even a Boglehead would buy gold?
Replies: 35
Views: 2311

Re: Vgpmx down 40%, time to buy?

Not sure why Bogleheads would reject a main Boglehead tenet of index investing by buying a managed (actually badly-managed) fund rather than an index.
by William Million
Sun Oct 13, 2013 11:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgpmx down 40%, time to buy?
Replies: 27
Views: 4370

Re: Vgpmx down 40%, time to buy?

Noteworthy how poorly this managed fund lags its benchmark, suggesting inept fund management. According to the numbers on Morningstar.com, this fund (VGPMX) has outperformed stocks in its category for most time periods. According to the Vanguard site, performance has been: 1 yr VGPMX: –37.16% Bench...
by William Million
Sun Oct 13, 2013 10:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgpmx down 40%, time to buy?
Replies: 27
Views: 4370

Re: Vgpmx down 40%, time to buy?

Noteworthy how poorly this managed fund lags its benchmark, suggesting inept fund management.
by William Million
Sun Oct 13, 2013 7:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vgpmx down 40%, time to buy?
Replies: 27
Views: 4370

Re: The new safe withdrawal rate

Very interesting debate, as always. I'm with Homer. 4% is fine for most people. 3.5% is a near guarantee. Every chat group takes on its own unique features. Over the past years, some Bogleheads, who are conservative anyway by nature, have competed with each other in making the case for the lowest po...
by William Million
Sat Oct 05, 2013 10:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The new safe withdrawal rate
Replies: 285
Views: 18495

Goldman says best stock opportunities in years

For what it's worth, Goldman says the time is now to double-down in stocks, at least those with good growth prospects:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-stock-market-presenting-investment-211016510.html
by William Million
Wed Sep 25, 2013 6:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman says best stock opportunities in years
Replies: 16
Views: 2695

Re: Anything Better Than CDs for Conservative Fixed Income?

Vanguard was offering a CIT 5 year CD at 2.10 on Friday; funny thing, go to the CIT site and they post it a 1.9%, maybe that will change by the issue date (9/25) of the Vanguard offering. No easy way out early on these brokered models, but this is for my annual spending allowance so no consideratio...
by William Million
Sun Sep 22, 2013 3:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anything Better Than CDs for Conservative Fixed Income?
Replies: 12
Views: 2362
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