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Re: Buying a home in SF Bay Area

I'm born, raised in Oakland but agree rents are now too high for what you get. Not worth it for someone facing a daily commute to Palo Alto.
by William Million
Wed Feb 25, 2015 3:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a home in SF Bay Area [Dumbo]
Replies: 79
Views: 4081

Re: Car Accident Question

SteadyWins wrote:
He lives close to me. Should I be concerned of reprisals at all if I pursue him to court? I have never been the cause of an accident.


No need to "pursue him." Your insurance will take care of it. Unlikely this is ever going to court.
by William Million
Sun Feb 22, 2015 12:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car Accident Question
Replies: 27
Views: 1416

Re: Reward checking account paying 3+% interest -- good idea

Nothing wrong with it, per se, as long as pay off the balance each month. The credit union is obviously hoping you won't pay off the card each month, that you'll end up keeping more than $20,000 in the account, or that you won't notice when they drop the interest rate (after attracting initial depos...
by William Million
Fri Feb 20, 2015 6:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reward checking account paying 3+% interest -- good idea?
Replies: 5
Views: 855

Re: Career changer and choosing best option?

Admire your adaptability. It will serve you well between now and retirement. No point obsessing about people who have more assets; they might have other issues. If you like teaching and have a chance to do it full-time, why not? As you note, trucking carries health as well as relationship challenges...
by William Million
Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Career changer and choosing best option?
Replies: 41
Views: 3190

Re: 5.6% stable value fund - what allocation?

5.6% guaranteed? If true, I'd do 100% allocation.
by William Million
Sat Feb 14, 2015 5:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5.6% stable value fund - what allocation?
Replies: 29
Views: 2525

Re: TIAA-CREF dramatically increasing Expense Ratios

TIAA-CREF has really fallen off a cliff, sad given its roots. In the past, when a poster brought up the company's downfall, he was blasted by TIAA-CREF afecionados. Not anymore.
by William Million
Sat Feb 14, 2015 5:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA-CREF dramatically increasing Expense Ratios
Replies: 72
Views: 4819

Re: College savings costs / number

"Top" colleges might be one of the most overrated facets of our society. It's the kid who makes it (or doesn't make it). BA/BS from a top college will increase chances of getting into grad school, but that's about it. As for succeeding in the job market, some recruiters actually prefer kid...
by William Million
Fri Feb 13, 2015 6:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College savings costs / number
Replies: 120
Views: 6366

Re: DH and I are buying bicycles

Go to the local bike shop and try out a number of different bikes. You'll probably settle on a hybrid with front suspension (for your needs). Nowadays relatively cheap bikes come in multiple sizes, so you can get the bike to fit you. If you pay less than $500, upgrade to more comfortable seat and gr...
by William Million
Mon Feb 09, 2015 6:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: DH and I are buying bicycles
Replies: 39
Views: 1590

Re: The cult of PE10 - so what?

PE10-triggered market timing is pseudo scientific. I fail to see how. Using data to discover relationships between variables is a classic scientific pursuit. One has to be careful to be sure it isn't just curve fitting by using out of sample data but other than that I'm not sure I understand your a...
by William Million
Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The cult of PE10 - so what?
Replies: 99
Views: 7036

Re: The cult of PE10 - so what?

Apologies for bumping up this thread but I recently did my own research on the PE aspect and how can individual investors benefit from PE value. I just want to share my findings and maybe you can help me find some flaws in my thinking. did my own research to understand better the situation. I took ...
by William Million
Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The cult of PE10 - so what?
Replies: 99
Views: 7036

Re: Am I making the right choice to NOT buy a new car (Volvo

If you can get your money back, then for me it's a no-brainer to buy the new car. You'll never get a better 30,000 than a vehicle's 1st 30,000.
by William Million
Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:32 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I making the right choice to NOT buy a new car (Volvo)?
Replies: 6
Views: 766

Re: Is it time to buy the Greek Index or Euro?

Euro is falling but too early for blood on the streets. Might well come.
by William Million
Wed Jan 28, 2015 8:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to buy the Greek Index or Euro?
Replies: 8
Views: 1708

Re: Does college tuition indeed keep up with inflation?

Already, creative solutions are popping up. Taking a CLEP test less than $100 and these are accepted as credits at many colleges. A kid could spend his first year working, which itself is an educational experience, while also studying for and testing out of a year's worth of college courses. Immedia...
by William Million
Wed Jan 28, 2015 7:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does college tuition indeed keep up with inflation?
Replies: 15
Views: 1105

Re: Anyone know when CD rates will increase?

Don't sweat it. Put any fixed income funds into 2.25 CDs with maximum penalty of 6 months. If rates fall, you win. If rates rise, you break the CD and also win. And the money is FDIC insured. All in all, not a bad deal.
by William Million
Wed Jan 28, 2015 6:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone know when CD rates will increase?
Replies: 70
Views: 5368

Re: Adopting

Please keep in mind that foreign adoption has largely become a business for adoption agencies, that "acquire" access to a child for a certain price and "sell" to prospective adoption parents for a higher price. There are still some really credible agencies not driven by the botto...
by William Million
Tue Jan 27, 2015 7:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Adopting
Replies: 29
Views: 2597

Re: Time to stop driving for 85 yo MIL

You could try what we did for spouses father a number of years ago (MIL did not drive)... the battery gave out on the car and we did not replace it...it stays in the garage. Now you may have to find a way to force it to go dead, and if they are not able to charge/replace on their own... it should b...
by William Million
Sun Jan 25, 2015 4:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time to stop driving for 85 yo MIL
Replies: 89
Views: 5747

Re: Time to stop driving for 85 yo MIL

We had my father's doctor write a letter to the DMV. Hated to do it but it might well have saved a life.
by William Million
Sun Jan 25, 2015 3:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time to stop driving for 85 yo MIL
Replies: 89
Views: 5747

Re: Advice on Brokerage CDs?

A brokered CD should pay more than a retail CD because it's an inferior instrument. While both brokered and retail FDIC-insured CDs carry small risk of loss to principal, the risks are greater with brokered CDs. Because brokered CDs are riskier investments, they should compensate with higher interes...
by William Million
Sat Jan 24, 2015 9:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on Brokerage CDs?
Replies: 25
Views: 997

Re: Gotta Be a Bear Market Coming

A guy I work with has just dumped some money into stocks, and he knows nearly nothing about the stock market, investing, financial planning, or anything like that. I had to explain what the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were, to give an indication of his level of financial sophistica...
by William Million
Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gotta Be a Bear Market Coming
Replies: 64
Views: 7770

Euro Account in US Bank

Any recommendations for a US bank that will hold a Euro account, later transferring the funds to Europe with minimal cost?
by William Million
Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Euro Account in US Bank
Replies: 0
Views: 150

Re: What is highest paying cash credit card

As Victoria and others have implied, there are card offers that net you far more than simple cash back, so long as you make use of the "services." For example: - Hyatt Visa. Annual fee $75 (waived for 1st year). 2 free nights at any Hyatt when you sign up, then 1 night per year at 4 stars ...
by William Million
Thu Jan 22, 2015 7:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is highest paying cash credit card
Replies: 24
Views: 2624

Gotta Be a Bear Market Coming

The economy looks strong with growth up and unemployment down. Nonetheless, I'e got to think this bull market is getting somewhat aged. While I won't resort to market-timing, I am bracing - perhaps irrationally - bracing for a major correction or bear market.
by William Million
Thu Jan 22, 2015 6:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gotta Be a Bear Market Coming
Replies: 64
Views: 7770

Re: How Can Short-Term Tax Exempt Make Sense?

I see Vanguard's VWSTX Short-Term Tax Exempt Bond Fund is now yielding just .35 with an expense ratio of .20. In my view, the expense ratio is eating up too much of the (already paltry) interest. Nice to save taxes, but if you earn almost no interest, there's not much to save. As best I can tell, t...
by William Million
Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Can Short-Term Tax Exempt Make Sense?
Replies: 13
Views: 1628

How Can Short-Term Tax Exempt Make Sense?

I see Vanguard's VWSTX Short-Term Tax Exempt Bond Fund is now yielding just .35 with an expense ratio of .20. In my view, the expense ratio is eating up too much of the (already paltry) interest. Nice to save taxes, but if you earn almost no interest, there's not much to save. As best I can tell, th...
by William Million
Sun Jan 18, 2015 9:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Can Short-Term Tax Exempt Make Sense?
Replies: 13
Views: 1628

Re: Should I Declare Victory and Pack It In?

"I'm tired." That says it all. 2 houses and 2.7 million is not bad. You're probably at a stage where time is worth more than additional money. Just resign yourself to a 3.5 SWR and live within your means. If after a year you find retirement is not what you planned, then look for some lower...
by William Million
Sat Jan 17, 2015 1:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Declare Victory and Pack It In?
Replies: 173
Views: 16956

Re: Should I now take advantage of the low euro?

Not sure I would assume the euro is "cheap" right now simply because it has traded higher over the past decade.
by William Million
Sat Jan 17, 2015 9:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I now take advantage of the low euro?
Replies: 8
Views: 1053

Re: Learning a NEW language - Foreign Service Inst

The Foreign Service process accompanies intensive classes for State Department officers. Using the materials without the instruction will not yield the same results. For most people, I don't believe it is possible to learn a foreign language without instruction by an actual teacher. You can pick up ...
by William Million
Sat Jan 17, 2015 9:13 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Learning a NEW language - Foreign Service Inst
Replies: 56
Views: 4625

Re: What do you drive, and why?

2006 Jeep Commander

I'm at a stage where safety trumps fuel efficiency, and it's a good car for the slopes and hauling bikes. Bought last year and will have to sell later this year. Fortunately, Jeeps don't depreciate much.
by William Million
Wed Jan 14, 2015 11:55 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do you drive, and why?
Replies: 205
Views: 17740

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

Again, the ultra-low SWR crowd steers the discussion into low bond returns and high PE10 (as I mentioned in the initial post). As I said in the opening post, low bond returns could just as well portend higher than average returns for those with a balanced portfolio (given the low cost of borrowing)....
by William Million
Mon Jan 12, 2015 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10786

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

As discussed earlier in the thread, there is a Boglehead characteristic - spend conservatively - that serves him/her well during the accumulation phase, but often less well during the drawdown phase. Several posters here expressed a strong desire to die with as much money as possible. Others said th...
by William Million
Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10786

Re: Israel bonds [how to evaluate political risk?]

2.76 is a bit low for single country in a dangerous neighborhood. You can get an FDIC insured CD for 2.25 or slightly more.
by William Million
Mon Jan 12, 2015 8:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Israel bonds [how to evaluate political risk?]
Replies: 17
Views: 1521

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

When I run a 4% SWR for a 40 year retirement, Vanguard tells me I've got an 86% chance of never running out of dough with a 50/50 portfolio. That's pretty darn good. I know some Bogleheads want it closer to 100% but I'll take 86%, knowing I can readjust lifestyle if necessary. https://retirementplan...
by William Million
Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10786

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

In the most extreme cases, we've even seen a few Bogleheads advocating sub-3% withdrawal rates. Makes very little sense for anyone retiring in their 60s. In sum, this might be a quirk of the conservative nature of Bogleheads who have vigilently denied gratification by saving all those years during ...
by William Million
Sun Jan 11, 2015 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10786

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

I think one aspect of the discussion that is often overlooked is how much cushion the desired withdrawal rate includes. Let's imagine that Angie has $1M and needs 40k per year. And she really needs it; even $39k a year means wearing three sweaters because the electric company is threatening about u...
by William Million
Sun Jan 11, 2015 1:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10786

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

...I would put it this way: Spending 2% of your nest egg in retirement (50x) means you will likely die with much of your nest egg still in tact. If that's what you want, no problem. I don't... Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is a planning number used during the accumulation phase. In the distribution ph...
by William Million
Sun Jan 11, 2015 1:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10786

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

In the most extreme cases, we've even seen a few Bogleheads advocating sub-3% withdrawal rates. Makes very little sense for anyone retiring in their 60s. In sum, this might be a quirk of the conservative nature of Bogleheads who have vigilently denied gratification by saving all those years during ...
by William Million
Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10786

Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

I've noticed whenever SWRs are discussed, there is a committed group of Bogleheads that urge lower, often much lower, SWRs. I'm confused by that since Vanguard's best research still suggests 4% works for nearly everyone. There might be a few qualifiers, such as whether you retire at 40 or if you ins...
by William Million
Sat Jan 10, 2015 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10786

Re: Who's buying Oil stocks?

Yes, you're probably right. Hard to believe the dividend will hold. Main reason to buy would be the theory that it's oversold due to the settlement headlines. While I'm rarely interested in individual stocks, BP would seems to be a reasonable gamble right now at 36. Dividend pays nearly 7%. Obviousl...
by William Million
Sat Jan 10, 2015 1:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who's buying Oil stocks?
Replies: 76
Views: 8264

Re: Who's buying Oil stocks?

While I'm rarely interested in individual stocks, BP would seems to be a reasonable gamble right now at 36. Dividend pays nearly 7%. Obviously, not the way to go for risk-adverse investors.
by William Million
Sat Jan 10, 2015 11:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who's buying Oil stocks?
Replies: 76
Views: 8264

Re: Buying Euros for a France vacation in the summer

arguably, the euro is still overvalued, only less so than over the past 6 years.
by William Million
Wed Jan 07, 2015 6:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying Euros for a France vacation in the summer
Replies: 13
Views: 1734

Re: Should I even be in bonds?

I was 100% stocks until 40 years old and it really paid off for me. At 55, I'm now 40% stocks. (I've got enough to retire on and don't want to put that at risk.) So I've followed a more extreme version of age-in-bonds on both ends.
by William Million
Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I even be in bonds?
Replies: 40
Views: 3702

Re: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?

60/40 is good, but I've preferred to be more aggressive in the early accumulation phase, and more conservative later on. I was 100% stocks until 40 years old. It suited me well at that phase. I would not have benefited much from a re-balancing premium since the assets were not large versus what I wa...
by William Million
Tue Dec 30, 2014 9:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?
Replies: 31
Views: 4798

Re: Where to put cash now? Prefer CD's.

Edward Jones is a brokerage house. Buying from them means brokered CDs, which can fluctuate in value (like bonds). If rates spike, the value of your CD will probably go down. If you want the security of a CD that doesn't fluctuate in value, buy directly from a bank (for a slightly lower interest rat...
by William Million
Sun Dec 28, 2014 9:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put cash now? Prefer CD's.
Replies: 33
Views: 6914

Re: I think I just got a $5,000 watch for Christmas

Congrats. What a gift. Great to hear how the "other" half lives
by William Million
Fri Dec 26, 2014 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000?
Replies: 920
Views: 179497

Re: Traveling to spain - phone, data plan and credit card

I'm from Spain. I am planning to walk el Camino de Santiago next spring. Do you know if it's possible to buy in Spain a disposable phone with low-cost usage? Can a non-Spain / non-EU traveler do it? Thank you, Victoria[/quote You can buy a budget smartphone in an Orange store. I went to Madrid (Oct...
by William Million
Thu Dec 25, 2014 1:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling to Spain - phone, data plan and credit card
Replies: 33
Views: 2646

Re: The bear market is over

pretty good call Reviving this thread is a good call but a bad omen. Victoria The stocks in free-fall thread was also recently resurrected. I think it makes prefect sense now to re-balance into fixed income, keeping some gunpowder dry for the next crash. It is reasonable to expect that an equity ma...
by William Million
Mon Dec 22, 2014 3:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The bear market is over
Replies: 242
Views: 69995

Re: The bear market is over

sambb wrote:great thread..


Yes, for those of us old enough to remember, it's sometimes helpful to relive the despair of 2009. Prevents us from being too cocky now.
by William Million
Mon Dec 22, 2014 6:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The bear market is over
Replies: 242
Views: 69995

Re: The bear market is over

pretty good call
by William Million
Sun Dec 21, 2014 12:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The bear market is over
Replies: 242
Views: 69995

Re: Flagship

At the risk of being a wet blanket, IMO the whole Flagship thing is just a marketing gimmick used to stroke egos. For most stay the course Bogleheads there isn't really any benefit that I can see. +1 While Flagship is not the be-all/end-all, it has been helpful to me to have a dedicated rep who pro...
by William Million
Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Flagship
Replies: 22
Views: 3045

Tax Question: How Does the 3.8% Kick In?

I'm trying to time the sale of some shares to minimize the tax bite. I understand there's a new 3.8% (since 2013) tax on single filers with income over $200,000 and joint filers over $250,000. Does that mean the first $200,000/250,000 does not incour that tax - only the amount beyond it? Or if incom...
by William Million
Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Question: How Does the 3.8% Kick In?
Replies: 4
Views: 711
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