Search found 442 matches

by William Million
Sat Sep 05, 2015 3:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Am I doing ? (39 y/o, NW- 3.5 mil)
Replies: 24
Views: 1777

Re: How Am I doing ? (39 y/o, NW- 3.5 mil)

Either a troll, or dude should seek out a shrink due to need to have others validate how rich he is . . .
by William Million
Fri Sep 04, 2015 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is Short-Term Corp Bond VSCSX Yield So High?
Replies: 5
Views: 782

Re: Why is Short-Term Corp Bond VSCSX Yield So High?

Thanks for the responses. I realize it's not a high-appreciation investment, but believe 2% is a pretty good return for now. The Fed rate increase might already be reflected in the price.
by William Million
Fri Sep 04, 2015 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities
Replies: 4
Views: 430

Re: Question about Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities

I never liked the fluctuation in a fund that was supposed to add to stability. For that reason, I prefer buying TIPS outright. I realize I'm being somewhat delusional, since my bonds' market price fluctuates, but I prefer it.
by William Million
Fri Sep 04, 2015 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is Short-Term Corp Bond VSCSX Yield So High?
Replies: 5
Views: 782

Why is Short-Term Corp Bond VSCSX Yield So High?

Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund Admiral Shares (VSCSX) is currently yielding over 2%, with minimal price depreciation risk. That's more than double short-term federal or short-term treasury funds. It actually compares favorably to a 5-year CD - with a slightly greater price depreciatio...
by William Million
Fri Sep 04, 2015 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross: cash is your best investment right now
Replies: 54
Views: 6347

Re: Bill Gross: cash is your best investment right now

Are short term bonds really a near cash equivalent? Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund Admiral Shares (VSCSX) is yielding 2.03% over cash yielding about 1% in a savings account. Is that a free lunch? There is never a free lunch. Should interest rates rise dramatically, a money market acc...
by William Million
Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 117
Views: 7699

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

You could play it conservative and go, say, 40/60. You'd still enjoy the upturns but probably, even in an extreme bear market, not lose more than 25%. Look at it another way: Over the past 200 years, the stock market has been up 134 years, or about two-thirds of the time. Are you willing to bet you ...
by William Million
Wed Sep 02, 2015 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 117
Views: 7699

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

Honestly, none of your arguments seems terribly compelling. P/E is a bit high but perhaps not outrageously so. China is adjusting to lower growth but other countries are filling the void.
by William Million
Sun Aug 30, 2015 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the Fed announces rate hike Sept 16-17, then . . . .
Replies: 13
Views: 1798

If the Fed announces rate hike Sept 16-17, then . . . .

It seems from media reports the Fed is leaning toward its 1st rate hike since the 2008 crisis, and it would happen at the Sept 16-17 meeting. If the rate hike occurs, then what? How much could we expect intermediate term bonds to lose in value? Would we start to see 5-year CDs move back toward 3%?
by William Million
Sat Aug 22, 2015 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?
Replies: 322
Views: 36378

Re: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?

Someday the market will drop significantly and the PE10 crowd will suddenly feel vindicated (after having lost money for years by believing in a discredited valuation measure)
by William Million
Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?
Replies: 322
Views: 36378

Re: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?

Pretty solid evidence market-timing based on PE10 is a really awful way to invest.
by William Million
Sun Aug 16, 2015 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any thoughts on Global Min Volatility Fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 909

Re: Any thoughts on Global Min Volatility Fund?

Yes, it's a valid point that one could just reduce equity allocation by 10% and achieve the same result.
by William Million
Sun Aug 16, 2015 6:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any thoughts on Global Min Volatility Fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 909

Any thoughts on Global Min Volatility Fund?

Curious if any Bogleheads see any value in Vanguard's Global Minimum Volatility Fund (VMNVX). If the following claim is true, it would be useful for conservative investors seeking global diversification: "It is reasonable for investors to expect, on average, for a minimum volatility fund to out...
by William Million
Wed Aug 12, 2015 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is VWO the best fund for EM?
Replies: 20
Views: 1879

Re: Is VWO the best fund for EM?

VWO is OK, but pretty heavy in China/Taiwan.
by William Million
Mon Aug 10, 2015 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: Stocks Will Be Much Higher
Replies: 25
Views: 5084

Re: Buffett: Stocks Will Be Much Higher

knpstr wrote:
garlandwhizzer wrote:Nor does he market time.

His currently advice however does not suggest that the today's market as a whole is a screaming buy at current prices but rather a hold.


**Does not compute**


Buffett's advice is it makes no sense to define the current market, including calling it a "hold."
by William Million
Mon Aug 10, 2015 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: Stocks Will Be Much Higher
Replies: 25
Views: 5084

Buffett: Stocks Will Be Much Higher

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-bu ... 08792.html

Good antidote to many on this forum (and their gurus) who keep insisting returns will be lower going forward.
by William Million
Mon Aug 10, 2015 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy a house that is registered under a sex offender[?]
Replies: 36
Views: 4184

Re: Buy a house that is registered under a sex offender[?]

I now check the sex-offender registry before buying, but I would not worry about the house I'm buying. I would be far more worried about buying the house next door to a sex offender. That's really the most important point. I wouldn't want a sex offender nearby (realizing some are on the registry fo...
by William Million
Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Transfer maturing Ally Bank IRA CD to new Synchrony Bank IRA CD
Replies: 5
Views: 998

Re: Transfer maturing Ally Bank IRA CD to new Synchrony Bank IRA CD

just fyi, I've had CDs with many different banks and never dealt with such an administratively inept bank as Synchrony. Unlike the other banks, Synchrony doesn't respond to emails and its telephone service are clueless.
by William Million
Sun Jul 19, 2015 9:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco Prescription Glasses
Replies: 17
Views: 1469

Re: Costco Prescription Glasses

I second Zenni Optical. It'll be much cheaper.
by William Million
Sat Jul 18, 2015 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: leverage and beating the market
Replies: 37
Views: 2699

Re: leverage and beating the market

Assuming the small/value premium continues into the future, keep in mind that small/value can still under-perforrm for 10-15 year stretches After 5 years, most of us start to question the small/value premium. After 10 years of under-performance, almost everyone has jumped ship. A manager who under-p...
by William Million
Tue Jul 07, 2015 5:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller's Continuing Demise
Replies: 36
Views: 6075

Robert Shiller's Continuing Demise

His latest call is to buy Greek stocks: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102811409?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cheadline%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=102811409 In general, I find it disappointing that an economist who has done useful work has become so obsessed with media appearances that he makes r...
by William Million
Fri Jul 03, 2015 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to play Europe
Replies: 11
Views: 1629

Re: How to play Europe

A little early to buy Greece. That market still has a long way to fall. It's not clear what will happen after the referendum, i.e., even with a yes vote whether the current will really leave power, how long a transition would take, etc. On the other hand, a bit late for the rest of Europe, which has...
by William Million
Tue Jun 23, 2015 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "4% Rule" revisited
Replies: 102
Views: 14180

Re: The "4% Rule" revisited

Taylor's reply, among the first replies on the thread, makes the most sense. Start out with 4% - no less. Adjust for inflation each year, but take into account any large spikes/drops in your portfolio and adjust ,if necessary. a) Ultra-conservative Bogleheads who preach 3% or lower SWRs run a high r...
by William Million
Sun Jun 07, 2015 7:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Perpetual Travelling
Replies: 73
Views: 10393

Re: Perpetual Travelling

by William Million
Sun Jun 07, 2015 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help: Military Rental Property
Replies: 6
Views: 654

Re: Help: Military Rental Property

18k annual income on 285k property not bad, considering fixed income alternate investments. Question is whether you mind the absentee landlord hassle factor.
by William Million
Sun Jun 07, 2015 6:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should we stay or should we go now?
Replies: 23
Views: 3384

Re: Should we stay or should we go now?

If it ain't broke . . . .
by William Million
Sun May 31, 2015 7:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can my husband retire yet?
Replies: 112
Views: 14510

Re: Can my husband retire yet?

Has to be equability in a relationship, which it sounds like yours lacks. If your husband can't relieve the household of the substantial daycare burden, then he needs to get a job. Might not be a dream job. If he doesn't want to work again, and he also has no interest in child care, then obviously i...
by William Million
Sat May 23, 2015 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 before conceiving a child?
Replies: 12
Views: 917

Re: 529 before conceiving a child?

Too early. Many couples nowadays have problems conceiving. There's already the risk a child will never attend college. Now you're adding the additional risk that the child will never be conceived. By investing at birth, you're already getting a good jump. Your current focus should be retirement.
by William Million
Sat May 23, 2015 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: please confirm: early retirement
Replies: 90
Views: 8034

Re: please confirm: early retirement

Congrats on excellent saving and retirement/college planning. You've got your numbers right, but the main variable is yourselves. Only you can answer that. Are you likely to spend more money in the future for exotic travel/cars/hobbies, divorce, child who is slow to find his way in life? Can you han...
by William Million
Sat May 23, 2015 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross Thinks the End Is Near
Replies: 54
Views: 7615

Re: Bill Gross Thinks the End Is Near

Guy made a name for himself with some lucky years. Unfortunately, he doesn't realize it was luck and he's making repeatedly wrong predictions.
by William Million
Thu May 14, 2015 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much can I spend on a car?
Replies: 157
Views: 10292

Re: How much can I spend on a car?

I'm a Boglehead but think thee dude should buy the more expensive car (as he plans to do).

I think some might be mistakenly believe Boglehead means never splurging.
by William Million
Tue May 12, 2015 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much can I spend on a car?
Replies: 157
Views: 10292

Re: How much can I spend on a car?

The more expensive imports will be pricier to maintain (but still a decent deal). For an active dude in his 20s, I'd recommend a Jeep. Cheap to maintain, great for the active life to go skiing, hiking, biking, etc, and you won't look like a dweeb when dating. Jeeps also hold their value rather well,...
by William Million
Wed May 06, 2015 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TradingPlaces' advice on travel awards
Replies: 260
Views: 424333

Re: TradingPlaces' advice on travel awards

As some have noted, the Citi Prestige card is an extraordinary value. I got it for $350 instead of $450 by applying in a Citi branch. I banked the bonus, which was worth about $300. (You can even use at Amazon.) I got the $250 in travel expenses by booking a ticket on the card. So at that point, the...
by William Million
Sun May 03, 2015 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Private Schools - Tuition
Replies: 90
Views: 6147

Re: Private Schools - Tuition

As the diversity of opinions on the board show, there is no one-size-fits-all answer to the question. It depends on: - quality of the local public schools - ease of a move to a better public school district - any special issues a child might have - amount of private school financial aid you could ge...
by William Million
Sun Apr 26, 2015 5:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hedging the Euro (or yen)
Replies: 3
Views: 460

Re: Hedging the Euro (or yen)

We're nowhere near record dollar/euro levels. We're currently at US 1.09/Euro. In Oct 2000, it reached US .82/Euro. Given the respective policies of the central banks, my sense is the euro still has a ways to fall. We're much closer to the mid-point between periodic extreme points. If we're a market...
by William Million
Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who follows Age in Bonds
Replies: 62
Views: 5687

Re: Who follows Age in Bonds

I'm age = +5 bonds.

Reason: I've hit my "number" so am a bit more conservative. I also tend to be cautious a the end of a 6 year bull market.
by William Million
Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 6916

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

For the past 2 posters, I believe in the value premium. However, I don't believe PE10 captures it as well as other metrics.
by William Million
Thu Apr 23, 2015 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 6916

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

If you just tilt slightly based on PE10, it's really not worth your time. So you really have to tilt heavily (if you believe in it). Given how poorly PE10 has tested when used in isolation, I would liken heavily tilting in that direction to picking stocks by throwing darts. For the PE10 crowd to cla...
by William Million
Wed Apr 22, 2015 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 6916

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

PE10 indication that US stocks were overvalued in 2011 is enough to convince it's not a winning approach. Why? Stocks were over-valued in 1997, that didn't mean that you should automatically dump your whole equity portfolio. You're confusing "over-valued" with "will crash tomorrow&qu...
by William Million
Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 6916

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

Lots of bather. It boils down to two questions: (1) do stock valuations matter, and (2) can you estimate stock valuations? If you don't think that valuations matter in any way, then move on and get a life. If you do think that valuations matter in some way or other but can't be estimated, then move...
by William Million
Wed Apr 22, 2015 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 6916

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

Reason I'm skeptical of back testing, such as in the PE10 case We could back test an up or down stock market year for: - whether American League or National League team wins the world series - which party is in majority in the Senate - price of oil - whether current President is right- or left-hand...
by William Million
Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 6916

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

PE10 indication that US stocks were overvalued in 2011 is enough to convince it's not a winning approach.
by William Million
Tue Apr 21, 2015 5:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 6916

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

Point is not that PE10 is totally useless, only that it is, at best, no more useful than other valuation metrics. Moving large amounts of portfolio assets around based on PE10 is akin to playing roulette. If one were to use PE10 alongside 6-7 other valuation metrics, it could be less risky. However,...
by William Million
Mon Apr 20, 2015 5:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 6916

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

http://archive.fortune.com/2011/02/09/pf/shiller_cape_ratio.fortune/index.htm Back in 2011, early in the bull market, PE10 thought equities were overvalued. Actually, Shiller even missed an historic buying opportunity in 2009, insisting PE10 had not yet bottomed out. Shiller's a brilliant guy and h...
by William Million
Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 6916

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

I think Meb Faber made a great point when he addressed this criticism: http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/09/01/article-2738966-20E9975B00000578-17_634x374.jpg The green line represents holding bonds whenever the CAPE's above 20, and despite missing out on the best part of two bull markets, you wo...
by William Million
Sun Apr 19, 2015 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 6916

Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

http://archive.fortune.com/2011/02/09/pf/shiller_cape_ratio.fortune/index.htm Back in 2011, early in the bull market, PE10 thought equities were overvalued. Actually, Shiller even missed an historic buying opportunity in 2009, insisting PE10 had not yet bottomed out. Shiller's a brilliant guy and ha...
by William Million
Sun Apr 12, 2015 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The $1 Million Goal: Source of Motivation or Discouragement?
Replies: 172
Views: 17936

Re: The $1 Million Goal: Source of Motivation or Discouragem

Million is an interesting goal for many since 4% SWR ($40,000) plus social security plus paid off house means a good retirement for many people. I believe most focused Americans can reach that goal, although single-parenthood or disability make it far more difficult. One of the important Boglehead t...
by William Million
Sat Apr 11, 2015 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to Retire?
Replies: 35
Views: 3595

Re: When to Retire?

Congratulations on amassing an enviable nest egg. Yes, you can retire tomorrow if you continue to follow Boglehead principles.
by William Million
Thu Apr 09, 2015 9:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cost of College & Weighing the Merits of Top Schools
Replies: 304
Views: 20087

Re: Cost of College & Weighing the Merits of Top Schools

Yup. Less than 5% of PhD students will ever get tenured position at a college or university. The Ivy League (and equivalent) programs graduate enough PhDs to fill most all the tenure-track positions. A sizable portion of the Ivy League PhD try and fail to secure a tenure-track job. What's your sour...
by William Million
Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Implications of Marriage - she with debt and low income (WI)
Replies: 71
Views: 7715

Re: Implications of Marriage - she with debt and low income

Personally, I'd get married and get a prenup. If the marriage lasts, you will both benefit financially by adding stability to the other. When one is between jobs or experiencing difficulties, the other will be the support. You've gotten out of the box faster, but she shares your values. I'm only add...
by William Million
Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can you really know your AA until you've hit a bear market?
Replies: 74
Views: 6161

Re: Can you really know your AA until you've hit a bear mark

At 55, I'm 40/60, quite conservative by most measures. I have enough to retire on, and I just don't want to risk losing my retirement.

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