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Re: Costco:is it worth it for just two people?

Costco is OK, but not for me.

I seem to get similar prices buying from Trader Joes and local supermarket on sale. The local Costco is too far, and I never like buying larger quantities than I need (fear of obesity and limited storage issues at home).
by William Million
Sun Aug 31, 2014 12:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco:is it worth it for just two people?
Replies: 143
Views: 11069

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

We have no way of knowing whether returns going forward will be lower or higher. It's highly speculative to guess. However, dropping to a 2% SWR is absurdly conservative, in my opinion, based on the current research. A normal 65 year old retiree can plan for a 30-year retirement at 4% SWR.
by William Million
Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 189
Views: 12159

Re: No car for 10 years - should I scratch the itch?

I just bought a Jeep Commander but also commute on public transport. But I like to use it to drive to the ski slopes and it's great having the hitch to move the family's mountain bikes around. However, I did buy used. Good thing about Jeeps (especially Wrangler) is they don't depreciate beyond a cer...
by William Million
Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: No car for 10 years - should I scratch the itch?
Replies: 28
Views: 2122

Re: Do you tip on the tax? [Restaurants]

15 for so-so service, 20 for good service, pre-tax but rounded up.
by William Million
Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you tip on the tax? [Restaurants]
Replies: 124
Views: 5080

Re: Where do you buy clothes?

Gotta look professional for my job. Shirts - I like Jos A Bank Traveler on sale. They have some odd sizes. I can't wear standard sizes. Suits - I buy custom-made when in Asia. I've had them made for as much as $400 for a very high-end Thai suit, but I also get an awful lot of compliments on my $80 s...
by William Million
Mon Aug 11, 2014 10:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where do you buy clothes?
Replies: 105
Views: 9238

Re: Saving for Adoption

Adoption is great, but just a few thoughts: - International adoption has become very complicated as demand for babies in the rich countries, coupled with desperate need for $ in poor countries, has fostered an unsavory business model. As the Hague Convention (and its higher standards) has been adopt...
by William Million
Sun Jul 27, 2014 11:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Saving for Adoption
Replies: 14
Views: 1333

Re: Fresh Out of College - Advice Appreciated

Even if you messed up on the 2 insurance products (yes, you should drop both of them), you're doing awesome for your age - minimal debt and a great salary. Put as much as possible into retirement accounts invested in equities, and you'll have a secure retirement. Again, congratulations.
by William Million
Sun Jul 27, 2014 11:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fresh Out of College - Advice Appreciated
Replies: 12
Views: 1220

Re: Why I can't be a day trader.

You have to remind yourself that no one is able to buy at the lowest point, then sell at the highest.
by William Million
Wed Jul 16, 2014 11:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why I can't be a day trader.
Replies: 38
Views: 3068

Re: 24 Years Old Looking for Conservative, Inflation Hedged

You really need to invest in equities. Over a 40 year period (until retirement), it might be your most conservative investment. If you put in money out of every pay check, it will be dollar cost averaged, further mitigating your risk.
by William Million
Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 24 Years Old Looking for Conservative, Inflation Hedged Port
Replies: 10
Views: 785

Re: Teacher Considering Career Change

Let's see: Maybe time to think outside the box. You're a Boglehead and you picked public over private school partly due to the money, so compensation is an important factor for you. However, education is not always a high income field. Also, you appear to be young and free. OK, why not take a teachi...
by William Million
Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Teacher Considering Career Change
Replies: 49
Views: 3958

Re: Is Market on "Wrong Side of History"?

The market would probably be 1,000 or 2,000 points lower right now if not for extreme Fed policies. So, a plunge followed by a long flat if not down market is sure to happen when the Fed is forced to reverse course by some event such as an unexpected spike in inflation. The boglehead approach is to...
by William Million
Thu Jul 10, 2014 6:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Market on "Wrong Side of History"?
Replies: 22
Views: 2754

Re: Best website for airfare?

I like cheapoair to find the best fare, then I usually book it directly on the airline's own site (better if complications arise).
by William Million
Sat Jul 05, 2014 11:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best website for airfare?
Replies: 20
Views: 3010

Re: Why is Tilting and Slice&Dice so popular in this forum?

placeholder wrote:Why would I care what "many investors" do as I know I can maintain my allocation long term.


I don't know you but question is, after how many years of substandard returns tilting s/v would you abandon course - 5, 10, 15? It often takes a long time to realize the s/v premium.
by William Million
Fri Jun 13, 2014 4:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tilting and Slice&Dice so popular in this forum?
Replies: 110
Views: 6327

Re: Why is Tilting and Slice&Dice so popular in this forum?

Problem with small value tilt is not whether it works - I believe it does. Problem is how long it might take to work. If investors tilt small value and lag the market for 1 year, most will stick it out. At 5 years, many would bail. And at 10 years of returns lagging the S&P 500, the rest give up...
by William Million
Fri Jun 13, 2014 12:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Tilting and Slice&Dice so popular in this forum?
Replies: 110
Views: 6327

Re: Still Nuts to Buy New Car for 10 Months?

Thanks to everyone for replying. Problem with long-term renting is I'm not finding anything under $650/month. For 10 months, I'm looking at about $8,000. For that reason, I thought buying a new car for $15,000, then reselling for $11,000-12,000 might be best. However, the hassle of selling is unplea...
by William Million
Tue Jun 10, 2014 5:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Still Nuts to Buy New Car for 10 Months?
Replies: 20
Views: 1917

Re: Still Nuts to Buy New Car for 10 Months?

Good idea to look at the end of someone else's lease, thanks.

As far as buying 1-year old, I'm seeing new Corollas under $15,000. Very hard to get a late-model, low mileage Corolla at much lower.
by William Million
Sun Jun 08, 2014 9:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Still Nuts to Buy New Car for 10 Months?
Replies: 20
Views: 1917

Still Nuts to Buy New Car for 10 Months?

I'll be in an area for 10 months related to work and will need a car. It'll be a stressful time work-wise and I don't want to deal with mechanics, if possible. I know it sounds nuts but as best I can tell, it might not be a bad idea idea to buy a new Toyota Corolla or Nissan Sentra. If I get a low p...
by William Million
Sun Jun 08, 2014 9:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Still Nuts to Buy New Car for 10 Months?
Replies: 20
Views: 1917

When Brokers Buy Shares for Higher Prices

Something to watch out for. Tiny variations in prices can mean big bucks to those buying and selling them: "What happens when you buy shares on the stock exchange? Probably not what you expect. The moment you click "buy" on your broker's website, you think that the computer sends your...
by William Million
Sat May 17, 2014 6:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Brokers Buy Shares for Higher Prices
Replies: 7
Views: 707

Re: "When Vix is high it's time to buy"

About as predictive as PE10, MACD, moving averages and other faddish stock indicators. They all work . . . until they don't.
by William Million
Fri May 09, 2014 10:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "When Vix is high it's time to buy"
Replies: 25
Views: 3137

Re: Car Advice

In recent years, prices for late model used cars have crept up, especially for heavily demand Hondas and Toyotas. In many cases, you'll do better buying new if you can cut a good deal, perhaps with late-summer rebates late in the model year. Or you can buy a very old car - 7 more more years old - an...
by William Million
Sun May 04, 2014 3:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car Advice
Replies: 32
Views: 3009

Re: Worst Case Scenario, How Far Could Limited Term Drop?

Many thanks. I think I can live with that as a disaster scenario. Seems wasteful to park the money in money market with negative real rates.
by William Million
Fri Apr 25, 2014 11:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Worst Case Scenario, How Far Could Limited Term Drop?
Replies: 13
Views: 2232

Worst Case Scenario, How Far Could Limited Term Drop?

I want to put a chunk in Limited Term Tax Exempt (VMLTX). I might use the money for down payment in 2-4 years. Worst case scenario, how far could it drop?
by William Million
Fri Apr 25, 2014 8:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Worst Case Scenario, How Far Could Limited Term Drop?
Replies: 13
Views: 2232

Re: College Competition

Cal's a fine school, especially if you can get it for in state tuition, but a smart , grounded young person will succeed after attending any of thee UCs or State Universities.
by William Million
Fri Apr 25, 2014 6:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College Competition [locked]
Replies: 41
Views: 7831

Re: Buying first home in SF - gut check

While $1.8 mllion is not unheard of for a house in a nice neighborhood in San Francisco, you are taking on high expenses, such as taxes. Keep in mind you can also get a decent house in the Bay Area for "only" $1 million." You could, for instance, get a nice house in Alameda for $1mill...
by William Million
Fri Mar 28, 2014 2:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying first home in SF - gut check
Replies: 93
Views: 10091

Re: Buying Condo where I'm renting in DC suburbs (Montgomery

- You say you have $50,000 in taxable and $70,000 in tax-sheltered accounts. You didn't say how this money was invested. If parked in G-fund and money market, you're not really taking advantage of opportunity cost of not buying. If it's mostly in equities (makes sense for your age), then you're not ...
by William Million
Thu Mar 27, 2014 8:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying Condo where I'm renting in DC suburbs (Montgomery)
Replies: 10
Views: 909

Re: Senior retiring to Florida - Rent vs Own?

If unsure whether to rent or own, well, that's your answer: rent.
by William Million
Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Senior retiring to Florida - Rent vs Own?
Replies: 6
Views: 780

Re: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reason

Very well said. But of course you'll draw the ire of the PE10 cult.
by William Million
Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Benjamin Graham thinks current S&P valuations are reasonable
Replies: 54
Views: 7562

Re: Less Obvious Travel Spots

Nicaragua is very interesting and cheap - a fraction of the tourists in Costa Rica. Not as dangerous as other Central American destinations.

The Pantanal is Brazil is spectacular but still does not amount of tourists.

Interior Bali is amazing.

In Vietnam, Hue, Hoi An and Da Nang are unbelievable.
by William Million
Sun Feb 09, 2014 7:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: .....
Replies: 64
Views: 5975

omg, did I miss the buying opportunity in stocks?

2.6% gain on Thursday/Friday. Maybe it wasn't even a correction.
by William Million
Sat Feb 08, 2014 12:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: omg, did I miss the buying opportunity in stocks?
Replies: 54
Views: 6554

Increasing Stock Allocation in Retirement

Today's WSJ has an article: "How Much Stock Should You Own in Retirement? The thinking on how to answer this critical question is changing" I had never considered it, but the article makes an interesting case for starting low at 20-50%, then ramping back up to 40-80%. Argument for having l...
by William Million
Tue Feb 04, 2014 9:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Increasing Stock Allocation in Retirement
Replies: 1
Views: 531

Re: TAYLOR'S UPCOMING 90th BIRTHDAY

amazing how much we've all learned from you
by William Million
Wed Jan 22, 2014 7:09 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Taylor's 90th Birthday
Replies: 272
Views: 22721

Re: Best investment for money I will want in five years?

Pentagon Federal Credit Union is over 3% for 5 year CD. If rates spike, early redemption is 1 year of interest. Keep it for only 2 year and you already get a 1.5% rate. Not sure you can beat that without taking on more risk.
by William Million
Sun Dec 29, 2013 10:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best investment for money I will want in five years?
Replies: 19
Views: 1756

Re: Retiring in a "no state income tax state"?

State taxes are a factor for me in choosing a retirement locale. I can control spending, even by purchasing a fuel efficient car, so sales taxes are less of a concern. I will also look at property taxes. However, I can't see spending an extra $5,000-10,000/yr on state income taxes. Not worth it. I c...
by William Million
Sat Dec 28, 2013 11:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring in a "no state income tax state"?
Replies: 101
Views: 12005

Re: Please Help a 36 Yr Old With $7m+ Portfolio

To avoid making mistakes. Regardless if it's $1 million or $7 million, a financial advisor (hopefully) has the discipline and experience to keep you on an investment plan regardless of what the market is doing that day. A lot of discipline is emotional, as new investors may panic and sell when the ...
by William Million
Sat Dec 28, 2013 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please Help a 36 Yr Old With $7m+ Portfolio
Replies: 66
Views: 11045

Re: Please Help a 36 Yr Old With $7m+ Portfolio

Congratulations on great success. Probably you should be giving me advice, rather than the other way around. Anyway, this is my personal opinion: - I disagree with Lady Geek and don't believe you need professional financial management. The Boglehead principles apply for a $500,000 portfolio, just as...
by William Million
Wed Dec 25, 2013 12:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please Help a 36 Yr Old With $7m+ Portfolio
Replies: 66
Views: 11045

Re: Shiller warns of possible bubbles

Shiller also called 1996 a bubble. Turns out that Shiller was right. If you had sold out of Total Stock Market Fund and invested in Total Bond Market Fund in 1996 and stayed out of stocks for 12 years until PE10 dipped below the mean of 16 in 2008, you would have twice as much money now. It took un...
by William Million
Mon Dec 02, 2013 12:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller warns of possible bubbles
Replies: 24
Views: 2147

Re: Advantages to Dual Citizenship?

The reasons OP states for wanting dual citizenship are somewhat trivial and not worth the potential downsides. There are sometimes good reasons to take on another citizenship. If you are from a developing country, it is a pain to solicit visas whenever you want to go somewhere, so citizenship in an ...
by William Million
Sun Nov 24, 2013 7:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advantages to Dual Citizenship?
Replies: 34
Views: 3100

Re: Very Early Retirement: SWR, Annuities & Questions..

With a 50 year horizon and no new earnings flowing in, I believe international diversification becomes very important. The world will look very different in 50 years. Maybe Burma will be the next Switzerland.
by William Million
Sat Nov 23, 2013 8:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very Early Retirement: SWR, Annuities & Questions..
Replies: 72
Views: 3796

Emerging Markets Really Lag This Year

Fascinating how different 2013 has been for U.S. versus emerging markets:

500 Index Admiral YTD 28.42%
Emerging Market Adrimal YTD -4.67%

Might be re-balancing opportunity for those who do not use the Total World Stock Index.
by William Million
Sun Nov 17, 2013 8:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Really Lag This Year
Replies: 17
Views: 1947

Re: Ally CD Early Withdrawal Penalty changing Dec. 7

An expected change, given how advantageous Ally's terms have been. Many of us have exploited long-term, Ally CDs in our fixed income allotments, enjoying FDIC protection and the rates of longer term bonds - without the risk of rising rates (in this low rate environment) due to modest penalties for c...
by William Million
Wed Oct 30, 2013 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally CD Early Withdrawal Penalty changing Dec. 7
Replies: 19
Views: 2682

Re: Want to have kids, scared of the financial consequences

A lot of tangents here. Anyway, as to the OP's question, I'd recommend not quitting your job for now. If after the birth, you can't take being away from junior or entrusting him to a stranger, then you can always quit later. Keeps your options open and you'll be better positioned to answer your own ...
by William Million
Fri Oct 25, 2013 5:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Want to have kids, scared of the financial consequences
Replies: 95
Views: 6263

Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?

PE10 now seems like an entrenched instance of Boglehead group-think. I see 2 major threads debating this useful, yet extremely narrow, value metric. How can this be groupthink if it's being debated? I'm not sure you use that term to mean what others do. . . . . because so many posters here now have...
by William Million
Wed Oct 16, 2013 4:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Replies: 73
Views: 4593

Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?

PE10 now seems like an entrenched instance of Boglehead group-think. I see 2 major threads debating this useful, yet extremely narrow, value metric. I'm amazed there seem to be dozens of Bogleheads on this board who now base their investment or future earnings expectations on such a limited yeardsti...
by William Million
Wed Oct 16, 2013 3:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Replies: 73
Views: 4593

Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?

It's a logical fallacy to dismiss commonly held points of view as "group think" or "faith" when the other option is that they are held because of reasoned conclusions. How do you know which motivation people have when you read their posts. The question is: Would a Boglehead who ...
by William Million
Tue Oct 15, 2013 9:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Replies: 73
Views: 4593

Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?

Faith that market timing does not work. Faith that the most effective way to discredit any idea one disagrees with is to call it "market timing". Did any Boglehead actually not try to time the bond market in the past 2 years? :shock: I moved money to 5-year CDs instead of bonds. I don't k...
by William Million
Tue Oct 15, 2013 9:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Replies: 73
Views: 4593

Re: The cult of PE10 - so what?

We have PE10 because we have a decimal (base-10) number system. We came to use base-10 because our ancestors had 10 fingers. There is no logical reason that PE10 is a more accurate predictor than PE7 or PE9 or PE11. While it is due to cultural evolution that we have base-10 and PE10, we should not e...
by William Million
Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The cult of PE10 - so what?
Replies: 69
Views: 4204

Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?

Opinions on your two examples are very diverse. That doesn't sound like group-think to me. When you have 5 successive posts in a thread agreeing on an idea far outside the investing mainstream - and quite apart from anything John Bogle believes in - you have, arguably, mutually-reinforcing group-th...
by William Million
Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Replies: 73
Views: 4593

Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?

Any Bogleheads ideas repeatedly espoused here . . . to the extent that group-think occurs? That is, "the psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people, in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an incorrect or deviant decision-making outcome." (W...
by William Million
Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Replies: 73
Views: 4593

Re: When even a Boglehead would buy gold?

Gold might be helpful when everthing else tanks. However, I wouldn't touch it at present levels.
by William Million
Tue Oct 15, 2013 4:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When even a Boglehead would buy gold?
Replies: 35
Views: 2340

Re: When Bogleheads tell you it's different this time

I don't disagree with OP that bonds are overpriced. However, I will not overweight stocks for the following reasons: - I've already reached The Number and don't want to put my retirement at risk. - Stocks have surged since 2009. I hope they continue to surge but fear recency bias from those advocati...
by William Million
Mon Oct 14, 2013 11:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Bogleheads tell you it's different this time
Replies: 48
Views: 4768
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