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Re: Is it time to buy the Greek Index or Euro?

Euro is falling but too early for blood on the streets. Might well come.
by William Million
Wed Jan 28, 2015 8:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to buy the Greek Index or Euro?
Replies: 8
Views: 1592

Re: Does college tuition indeed keep up with inflation?

Already, creative solutions are popping up. Taking a CLEP test less than $100 and these are accepted as credits at many colleges. A kid could spend his first year working, which itself is an educational experience, while also studying for and testing out of a year's worth of college courses. Immedia...
by William Million
Wed Jan 28, 2015 7:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does college tuition indeed keep up with inflation?
Replies: 14
Views: 744

Re: Anyone know when CD rates will increase?

Don't sweat it. Put any fixed income funds into 2.25 CDs with maximum penalty of 6 months. If rates fall, you win. If rates rise, you break the CD and also win. And the money is FDIC insured. All in all, not a bad deal.
by William Million
Wed Jan 28, 2015 6:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone know when CD rates will increase?
Replies: 32
Views: 2225

Re: Adopting

Please keep in mind that foreign adoption has largely become a business for adoption agencies, that "acquire" access to a child for a certain price and "sell" to prospective adoption parents for a higher price. There are still some really credible agencies not driven by the botto...
by William Million
Tue Jan 27, 2015 7:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Adopting
Replies: 25
Views: 1977

Re: Time to stop driving for 85 yo MIL

You could try what we did for spouses father a number of years ago (MIL did not drive)... the battery gave out on the car and we did not replace it...it stays in the garage. Now you may have to find a way to force it to go dead, and if they are not able to charge/replace on their own... it should b...
by William Million
Sun Jan 25, 2015 4:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time to stop driving for 85 yo MIL
Replies: 69
Views: 3645

Re: Time to stop driving for 85 yo MIL

We had my father's doctor write a letter to the DMV. Hated to do it but it might well have saved a life.
by William Million
Sun Jan 25, 2015 3:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time to stop driving for 85 yo MIL
Replies: 69
Views: 3645

Re: Advice on Brokerage CDs?

A brokered CD should pay more than a retail CD because it's an inferior instrument. While both brokered and retail FDIC-insured CDs carry small risk of loss to principal, the risks are greater with brokered CDs. Because brokered CDs are riskier investments, they should compensate with higher interes...
by William Million
Sat Jan 24, 2015 9:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on Brokerage CDs?
Replies: 25
Views: 979

Re: Gotta Be a Bear Market Coming

A guy I work with has just dumped some money into stocks, and he knows nearly nothing about the stock market, investing, financial planning, or anything like that. I had to explain what the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were, to give an indication of his level of financial sophistica...
by William Million
Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gotta Be a Bear Market Coming
Replies: 64
Views: 7641

Euro Account in US Bank

Any recommendations for a US bank that will hold a Euro account, later transferring the funds to Europe with minimal cost?
by William Million
Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Euro Account in US Bank
Replies: 0
Views: 141

Re: What is highest paying cash credit card

As Victoria and others have implied, there are card offers that net you far more than simple cash back, so long as you make use of the "services." For example: - Hyatt Visa. Annual fee $75 (waived for 1st year). 2 free nights at any Hyatt when you sign up, then 1 night per year at 4 stars ...
by William Million
Thu Jan 22, 2015 7:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is highest paying cash credit card
Replies: 24
Views: 2559

Gotta Be a Bear Market Coming

The economy looks strong with growth up and unemployment down. Nonetheless, I'e got to think this bull market is getting somewhat aged. While I won't resort to market-timing, I am bracing - perhaps irrationally - bracing for a major correction or bear market.
by William Million
Thu Jan 22, 2015 6:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gotta Be a Bear Market Coming
Replies: 64
Views: 7641

Re: How Can Short-Term Tax Exempt Make Sense?

I see Vanguard's VWSTX Short-Term Tax Exempt Bond Fund is now yielding just .35 with an expense ratio of .20. In my view, the expense ratio is eating up too much of the (already paltry) interest. Nice to save taxes, but if you earn almost no interest, there's not much to save. As best I can tell, t...
by William Million
Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Can Short-Term Tax Exempt Make Sense?
Replies: 13
Views: 1586

How Can Short-Term Tax Exempt Make Sense?

I see Vanguard's VWSTX Short-Term Tax Exempt Bond Fund is now yielding just .35 with an expense ratio of .20. In my view, the expense ratio is eating up too much of the (already paltry) interest. Nice to save taxes, but if you earn almost no interest, there's not much to save. As best I can tell, th...
by William Million
Sun Jan 18, 2015 9:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Can Short-Term Tax Exempt Make Sense?
Replies: 13
Views: 1586

Re: Should I Declare Victory and Pack It In?

"I'm tired." That says it all. 2 houses and 2.7 million is not bad. You're probably at a stage where time is worth more than additional money. Just resign yourself to a 3.5 SWR and live within your means. If after a year you find retirement is not what you planned, then look for some lower...
by William Million
Sat Jan 17, 2015 1:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Declare Victory and Pack It In?
Replies: 173
Views: 16577

Re: Should I now take advantage of the low euro?

Not sure I would assume the euro is "cheap" right now simply because it has traded higher over the past decade.
by William Million
Sat Jan 17, 2015 9:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I now take advantage of the low euro?
Replies: 8
Views: 1006

Re: Learning a NEW language - Foreign Service Inst

The Foreign Service process accompanies intensive classes for State Department officers. Using the materials without the instruction will not yield the same results. For most people, I don't believe it is possible to learn a foreign language without instruction by an actual teacher. You can pick up ...
by William Million
Sat Jan 17, 2015 9:13 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Learning a NEW language - Foreign Service Inst
Replies: 56
Views: 4494

Re: What do you drive, and why?

2006 Jeep Commander

I'm at a stage where safety trumps fuel efficiency, and it's a good car for the slopes and hauling bikes. Bought last year and will have to sell later this year. Fortunately, Jeeps don't depreciate much.
by William Million
Wed Jan 14, 2015 11:55 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do you drive, and why?
Replies: 196
Views: 16381

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

Again, the ultra-low SWR crowd steers the discussion into low bond returns and high PE10 (as I mentioned in the initial post). As I said in the opening post, low bond returns could just as well portend higher than average returns for those with a balanced portfolio (given the low cost of borrowing)....
by William Million
Mon Jan 12, 2015 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10650

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

As discussed earlier in the thread, there is a Boglehead characteristic - spend conservatively - that serves him/her well during the accumulation phase, but often less well during the drawdown phase. Several posters here expressed a strong desire to die with as much money as possible. Others said th...
by William Million
Mon Jan 12, 2015 12:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10650

Re: Israel bonds [how to evaluate political risk?]

2.76 is a bit low for single country in a dangerous neighborhood. You can get an FDIC insured CD for 2.25 or slightly more.
by William Million
Mon Jan 12, 2015 8:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Israel bonds [how to evaluate political risk?]
Replies: 17
Views: 1499

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

When I run a 4% SWR for a 40 year retirement, Vanguard tells me I've got an 86% chance of never running out of dough with a 50/50 portfolio. That's pretty darn good. I know some Bogleheads want it closer to 100% but I'll take 86%, knowing I can readjust lifestyle if necessary. https://retirementplan...
by William Million
Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10650

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

In the most extreme cases, we've even seen a few Bogleheads advocating sub-3% withdrawal rates. Makes very little sense for anyone retiring in their 60s. In sum, this might be a quirk of the conservative nature of Bogleheads who have vigilently denied gratification by saving all those years during ...
by William Million
Sun Jan 11, 2015 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10650

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

I think one aspect of the discussion that is often overlooked is how much cushion the desired withdrawal rate includes. Let's imagine that Angie has $1M and needs 40k per year. And she really needs it; even $39k a year means wearing three sweaters because the electric company is threatening about u...
by William Million
Sun Jan 11, 2015 1:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10650

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

...I would put it this way: Spending 2% of your nest egg in retirement (50x) means you will likely die with much of your nest egg still in tact. If that's what you want, no problem. I don't... Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) is a planning number used during the accumulation phase. In the distribution ph...
by William Million
Sun Jan 11, 2015 1:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10650

Re: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

In the most extreme cases, we've even seen a few Bogleheads advocating sub-3% withdrawal rates. Makes very little sense for anyone retiring in their 60s. In sum, this might be a quirk of the conservative nature of Bogleheads who have vigilently denied gratification by saving all those years during ...
by William Million
Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10650

Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?

I've noticed whenever SWRs are discussed, there is a committed group of Bogleheads that urge lower, often much lower, SWRs. I'm confused by that since Vanguard's best research still suggests 4% works for nearly everyone. There might be a few qualifiers, such as whether you retire at 40 or if you ins...
by William Million
Sat Jan 10, 2015 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Sub-4% SWR a Boglehead Quirk?
Replies: 177
Views: 10650

Re: Who's buying Oil stocks?

Yes, you're probably right. Hard to believe the dividend will hold. Main reason to buy would be the theory that it's oversold due to the settlement headlines. While I'm rarely interested in individual stocks, BP would seems to be a reasonable gamble right now at 36. Dividend pays nearly 7%. Obviousl...
by William Million
Sat Jan 10, 2015 1:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who's buying Oil stocks?
Replies: 57
Views: 5051

Re: Who's buying Oil stocks?

While I'm rarely interested in individual stocks, BP would seems to be a reasonable gamble right now at 36. Dividend pays nearly 7%. Obviously, not the way to go for risk-adverse investors.
by William Million
Sat Jan 10, 2015 11:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who's buying Oil stocks?
Replies: 57
Views: 5051

Re: Buying Euros for a France vacation in the summer

arguably, the euro is still overvalued, only less so than over the past 6 years.
by William Million
Wed Jan 07, 2015 6:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying Euros for a France vacation in the summer
Replies: 13
Views: 1712

Re: Should I even be in bonds?

I was 100% stocks until 40 years old and it really paid off for me. At 55, I'm now 40% stocks. (I've got enough to retire on and don't want to put that at risk.) So I've followed a more extreme version of age-in-bonds on both ends.
by William Million
Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I even be in bonds?
Replies: 40
Views: 3666

Re: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?

60/40 is good, but I've preferred to be more aggressive in the early accumulation phase, and more conservative later on. I was 100% stocks until 40 years old. It suited me well at that phase. I would not have benefited much from a re-balancing premium since the assets were not large versus what I wa...
by William Million
Tue Dec 30, 2014 9:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?
Replies: 31
Views: 4759

Re: Where to put cash now? Prefer CD's.

Edward Jones is a brokerage house. Buying from them means brokered CDs, which can fluctuate in value (like bonds). If rates spike, the value of your CD will probably go down. If you want the security of a CD that doesn't fluctuate in value, buy directly from a bank (for a slightly lower interest rat...
by William Million
Sun Dec 28, 2014 9:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put cash now? Prefer CD's.
Replies: 33
Views: 6845

Re: I think I just got a $5,000 watch for Christmas

Congrats. What a gift. Great to hear how the "other" half lives
by William Million
Fri Dec 26, 2014 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000?
Replies: 906
Views: 173150

Re: Traveling to spain - phone, data plan and credit card

I'm from Spain. I am planning to walk el Camino de Santiago next spring. Do you know if it's possible to buy in Spain a disposable phone with low-cost usage? Can a non-Spain / non-EU traveler do it? Thank you, Victoria[/quote You can buy a budget smartphone in an Orange store. I went to Madrid (Oct...
by William Million
Thu Dec 25, 2014 1:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling to Spain - phone, data plan and credit card
Replies: 33
Views: 2628

Re: The bear market is over

pretty good call Reviving this thread is a good call but a bad omen. Victoria The stocks in free-fall thread was also recently resurrected. I think it makes prefect sense now to re-balance into fixed income, keeping some gunpowder dry for the next crash. It is reasonable to expect that an equity ma...
by William Million
Mon Dec 22, 2014 3:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The bear market is over
Replies: 242
Views: 69891

Re: The bear market is over

sambb wrote:great thread..


Yes, for those of us old enough to remember, it's sometimes helpful to relive the despair of 2009. Prevents us from being too cocky now.
by William Million
Mon Dec 22, 2014 6:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The bear market is over
Replies: 242
Views: 69891

Re: The bear market is over

pretty good call
by William Million
Sun Dec 21, 2014 12:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The bear market is over
Replies: 242
Views: 69891

Re: Flagship

At the risk of being a wet blanket, IMO the whole Flagship thing is just a marketing gimmick used to stroke egos. For most stay the course Bogleheads there isn't really any benefit that I can see. +1 While Flagship is not the be-all/end-all, it has been helpful to me to have a dedicated rep who pro...
by William Million
Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Flagship
Replies: 22
Views: 2993

Tax Question: How Does the 3.8% Kick In?

I'm trying to time the sale of some shares to minimize the tax bite. I understand there's a new 3.8% (since 2013) tax on single filers with income over $200,000 and joint filers over $250,000. Does that mean the first $200,000/250,000 does not incour that tax - only the amount beyond it? Or if incom...
by William Million
Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Question: How Does the 3.8% Kick In?
Replies: 4
Views: 708

I'm an Irrational Bond Chicken Little

While I invest nearly half my assets in equities, I fear moving some of my fixed income assets from short-term/CDs to intermediate term. I'm guessing this is irrational since the risk that equities will tumble is far greater than the risk of a slide in the NAV of intermediate term bonds. However, th...
by William Million
Sun Dec 14, 2014 8:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'm an Irrational Bond Chicken Little
Replies: 32
Views: 2996

Re: Best travel rewards card for my unique situation

The Hyatt visa is quite good, much easier to earn free nights than other cards. It has an annual fee, but you get one free night per year. Also, no service fee for charges outside the US.
by William Million
Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best travel rewards card for my unique situation
Replies: 11
Views: 1623

Re: I need to accumulate $30k over the next 2 years, how?

Given where you live, the easiest way to save quickly is on housing costs, ie live with roommates for the next 2 years. Obviously, you want to cut any big car costs, if you have them.
by William Million
Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I need to accumulate $30k over the next 2 years, how?
Replies: 59
Views: 4112

Re: Better at making than investing

Almost any fixed income option will work well for you. If you're most comfortable with TIPS, then that's an option. The question is whether you want equities. I believe 0% equities for someone as "young" as you to be a mistake, even though you have enviable assets. You might want to consid...
by William Million
Sun Dec 07, 2014 6:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Better at making than investing
Replies: 17
Views: 2051

Re: Am I being cheap? [wedding/engagement ring]

The reason for being a Boglehead is so that you have enough money for the things that really matter. If the woman you love wants the engagement ring, that's a pretty good use of your savings. For some people, the ring is meaningless. For others, such as your girlfriend, it means a lot.
by William Million
Sun Dec 07, 2014 6:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I being cheap? [wedding/engagement ring]
Replies: 192
Views: 9211

Re: Anyone Had Experience with CIT Bank?

I like em. You can even call them on Sundays.

FYI, if you open CDs with them on the phone, they will sometimes give slightly higher rates than on their site.
by William Million
Sun Dec 07, 2014 6:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone Had Experience with CIT Bank?
Replies: 5
Views: 460

Re: Returning to college at age 32: Help picking a major

He might need a bit more education than the BA/BS in those fields, such as if he wants to be a CPA or tax preparer. So he should be ready for that. He's a bit behind, but honestly, many people goof off in their 20s: travel, pursue long-shot careers in sports or entertainment, or do non-marketable gr...
by William Million
Sun Dec 07, 2014 6:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Returning to college at age 32: Help picking a major
Replies: 19
Views: 1255

Re: Liquidate EUR CD now or wait one year

If you can retire debt right now on a 4% mortgage, that's a good way to rationalize it. No one can predict exchange rates, but I'd be reluctant to bet on the Euro right now.
by William Million
Sat Dec 06, 2014 11:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Liquidate EUR CD now or wait one year
Replies: 11
Views: 579

Re: Why So Many Used Prius for Sale?

OP is right. In my areas, lots of competitively priced Priuses for sale. Great time to buy while fuel is cheap.
by William Million
Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why So Many Used Prius for Sale?
Replies: 51
Views: 7027

Re: Nikkei index 20+ years later.

Yes, the risk of a similar meltdown in the US is remote but possible. That's why I'm only 45% stocks a few years from retirement. I want to cap my losses at 30% in disaster scenario, prolonged down market.
by William Million
Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nikkei index 20+ years later.
Replies: 9
Views: 1680

Re: Strong Dollar Clobbers Returns of Foreign-Stock Funds

One analyst who foresees nearly dollar/euro parity by end of 2015: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/euro-may-fall-to-1-07-by-end-of-2015-barth-says-1~wXkfQyRM~feKy4argl7w.html?cmpid=yhoo Obviously, Bogleheads take any prediction with a grain of salt, but it does underscore the view that the dollar cur...
by William Million
Sat Dec 06, 2014 8:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strong Dollar Clobbers Returns of Foreign-Stock Funds
Replies: 26
Views: 2699
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