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by William Million
Sat May 23, 2015 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 before conceiving a child?
Replies: 12
Views: 717

Re: 529 before conceiving a child?

Too early. Many couples nowadays have problems conceiving. There's already the risk a child will never attend college. Now you're adding the additional risk that the child will never be conceived. By investing at birth, you're already getting a good jump. Your current focus should be retirement.
by William Million
Sat May 23, 2015 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: please confirm: early retirement
Replies: 81
Views: 5072

Re: please confirm: early retirement

Congrats on excellent saving and retirement/college planning. You've got your numbers right, but the main variable is yourselves. Only you can answer that. Are you likely to spend more money in the future for exotic travel/cars/hobbies, divorce, child who is slow to find his way in life? Can you han...
by William Million
Sat May 23, 2015 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross Thinks the End Is Near
Replies: 48
Views: 5225

Re: Bill Gross Thinks the End Is Near

Guy made a name for himself with some lucky years. Unfortunately, he doesn't realize it was luck and he's making repeatedly wrong predictions.
by William Million
Thu May 14, 2015 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much can I spend on a car?
Replies: 157
Views: 8533

Re: How much can I spend on a car?

I'm a Boglehead but think thee dude should buy the more expensive car (as he plans to do).

I think some might be mistakenly believe Boglehead means never splurging.
by William Million
Tue May 12, 2015 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much can I spend on a car?
Replies: 157
Views: 8533

Re: How much can I spend on a car?

The more expensive imports will be pricier to maintain (but still a decent deal). For an active dude in his 20s, I'd recommend a Jeep. Cheap to maintain, great for the active life to go skiing, hiking, biking, etc, and you won't look like a dweeb when dating. Jeeps also hold their value rather well,...
by William Million
Wed May 06, 2015 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TradingPlaces' advice on travel awards
Replies: 260
Views: 143007

Re: TradingPlaces' advice on travel awards

As some have noted, the Citi Prestige card is an extraordinary value. I got it for $350 instead of $450 by applying in a Citi branch. I banked the bonus, which was worth about $300. (You can even use at Amazon.) I got the $250 in travel expenses by booking a ticket on the card. So at that point, the...
by William Million
Sun May 03, 2015 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Private Schools - Tuition
Replies: 90
Views: 5464

Re: Private Schools - Tuition

As the diversity of opinions on the board show, there is no one-size-fits-all answer to the question. It depends on: - quality of the local public schools - ease of a move to a better public school district - any special issues a child might have - amount of private school financial aid you could ge...
by William Million
Sun Apr 26, 2015 5:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hedging the Euro (or yen)
Replies: 3
Views: 395

Re: Hedging the Euro (or yen)

We're nowhere near record dollar/euro levels. We're currently at US 1.09/Euro. In Oct 2000, it reached US .82/Euro. Given the respective policies of the central banks, my sense is the euro still has a ways to fall. We're much closer to the mid-point between periodic extreme points. If we're a market...
by William Million
Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who follows Age in Bonds
Replies: 62
Views: 4730

Re: Who follows Age in Bonds

I'm age = +5 bonds.

Reason: I've hit my "number" so am a bit more conservative. I also tend to be cautious a the end of a 6 year bull market.
by William Million
Thu Apr 23, 2015 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 6055

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

For the past 2 posters, I believe in the value premium. However, I don't believe PE10 captures it as well as other metrics.
by William Million
Thu Apr 23, 2015 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 6055

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

If you just tilt slightly based on PE10, it's really not worth your time. So you really have to tilt heavily (if you believe in it). Given how poorly PE10 has tested when used in isolation, I would liken heavily tilting in that direction to picking stocks by throwing darts. For the PE10 crowd to cla...
by William Million
Wed Apr 22, 2015 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 6055

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

PE10 indication that US stocks were overvalued in 2011 is enough to convince it's not a winning approach. Why? Stocks were over-valued in 1997, that didn't mean that you should automatically dump your whole equity portfolio. You're confusing "over-valued" with "will crash tomorrow&qu...
by William Million
Wed Apr 22, 2015 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 6055

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

Lots of bather. It boils down to two questions: (1) do stock valuations matter, and (2) can you estimate stock valuations? If you don't think that valuations matter in any way, then move on and get a life. If you do think that valuations matter in some way or other but can't be estimated, then move...
by William Million
Wed Apr 22, 2015 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 6055

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

Reason I'm skeptical of back testing, such as in the PE10 case We could back test an up or down stock market year for: - whether American League or National League team wins the world series - which party is in majority in the Senate - price of oil - whether current President is right- or left-hand...
by William Million
Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 6055

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

PE10 indication that US stocks were overvalued in 2011 is enough to convince it's not a winning approach.
by William Million
Tue Apr 21, 2015 5:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 6055

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

Point is not that PE10 is totally useless, only that it is, at best, no more useful than other valuation metrics. Moving large amounts of portfolio assets around based on PE10 is akin to playing roulette. If one were to use PE10 alongside 6-7 other valuation metrics, it could be less risky. However,...
by William Million
Mon Apr 20, 2015 5:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 6055

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

http://archive.fortune.com/2011/02/09/pf/shiller_cape_ratio.fortune/index.htm Back in 2011, early in the bull market, PE10 thought equities were overvalued. Actually, Shiller even missed an historic buying opportunity in 2009, insisting PE10 had not yet bottomed out. Shiller's a brilliant guy and h...
by William Million
Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 6055

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

I think Meb Faber made a great point when he addressed this criticism: http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/09/01/article-2738966-20E9975B00000578-17_634x374.jpg The green line represents holding bonds whenever the CAPE's above 20, and despite missing out on the best part of two bull markets, you wo...
by William Million
Sun Apr 19, 2015 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 6055

Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

http://archive.fortune.com/2011/02/09/pf/shiller_cape_ratio.fortune/index.htm Back in 2011, early in the bull market, PE10 thought equities were overvalued. Actually, Shiller even missed an historic buying opportunity in 2009, insisting PE10 had not yet bottomed out. Shiller's a brilliant guy and ha...
by William Million
Sun Apr 12, 2015 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The $1 Million Goal: Source of Motivation or Discouragement?
Replies: 172
Views: 16378

Re: The $1 Million Goal: Source of Motivation or Discouragem

Million is an interesting goal for many since 4% SWR ($40,000) plus social security plus paid off house means a good retirement for many people. I believe most focused Americans can reach that goal, although single-parenthood or disability make it far more difficult. One of the important Boglehead t...
by William Million
Sat Apr 11, 2015 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to Retire?
Replies: 35
Views: 3302

Re: When to Retire?

Congratulations on amassing an enviable nest egg. Yes, you can retire tomorrow if you continue to follow Boglehead principles.
by William Million
Thu Apr 09, 2015 9:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cost of College & Weighing the Merits of Top Schools
Replies: 304
Views: 17518

Re: Cost of College & Weighing the Merits of Top Schools

Yup. Less than 5% of PhD students will ever get tenured position at a college or university. The Ivy League (and equivalent) programs graduate enough PhDs to fill most all the tenure-track positions. A sizable portion of the Ivy League PhD try and fail to secure a tenure-track job. What's your sour...
by William Million
Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Implications of Marriage - she with debt and low income (WI)
Replies: 71
Views: 7085

Re: Implications of Marriage - she with debt and low income

Personally, I'd get married and get a prenup. If the marriage lasts, you will both benefit financially by adding stability to the other. When one is between jobs or experiencing difficulties, the other will be the support. You've gotten out of the box faster, but she shares your values. I'm only add...
by William Million
Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can you really know your AA until you've hit a bear market?
Replies: 74
Views: 5685

Re: Can you really know your AA until you've hit a bear mark

At 55, I'm 40/60, quite conservative by most measures. I have enough to retire on, and I just don't want to risk losing my retirement.
by William Million
Wed Mar 25, 2015 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Restaurant tipping
Replies: 200
Views: 13654

Re: Restaurant tipping

Honestly, these many debates on tipping never go anywhere. Some posters are self-righteous about tipping, others about not tipping. Morality aside, tipping 20% pre-tax, post-discount for decent service is now the societal norm. We should either accept it, or not eat out at restaurants requiring tabl...
by William Million
Sun Mar 22, 2015 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Restaurant tipping
Replies: 200
Views: 13654

Re: Restaurant tipping

By increasing the acceptable tip percentage from 15 to 20%, while paying a very low minimum wage for servers, restaurants have sought to attract customers through low menu prices. My experience is it is now backfiring. I know many people who do not go as often to restaurants as they would due to the...
by William Million
Sat Mar 21, 2015 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Legal for Doctor to Cover Insurance Co-pay?
Replies: 40
Views: 3171

Re: Legal for Doctor to Cover Insurance Co-pay?

Thanks for the replies so far. I now see there is some literature suggesting it can be illegal: http://www.abramslaw.com/ny_county_medical_society_-_automatic_waiver_of_co-pays%2Fco-insurance%3A_is_your_office_exposed_to_fraud_allegations_or_civil_liability%3F_publication_media_id_1111 However, I su...
by William Million
Sat Mar 21, 2015 7:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Legal for Doctor to Cover Insurance Co-pay?
Replies: 40
Views: 3171

Legal for Doctor to Cover Insurance Co-pay?

I've been undergoing treatment to deal with insomnia. Without going into the details of my recommended treatment, the office I''m dealing with has offered to provide an expensive product and service (worth about 2,500 - my insurance pays 90%, so about 250 for me). When I hesitated, they offered to w...
by William Million
Sat Mar 14, 2015 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 24503

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton found that worldwide, stocks returned about 3% more than twenty year government bonds since 1900. Twenty year TIPs are now at .5%. That means 3.5% real for stocks would be completely unremarkable. It would mean that stocks beat bonds by the historic average. No more, no ...
by William Million
Sat Mar 14, 2015 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 24503

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Mr Bernstein is a brilliant guy and his investment books are among the best ever written.

However, his predictive ability is no better than any fund manager, ie, less than useless.
by William Million
Fri Mar 13, 2015 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying Euro for Vacations?
Replies: 33
Views: 2767

Re: Buying Euro for Vacations?

I usually use an ATM card from CapitalOne. No fees, no funny business. I have a bank account in Europe and will need a large amount on euros for renovating an apartment, about $80k. Planning to send a wire transfer, so no physical delivery. I would appreciate some advice on the best (cheapest) way ...
by William Million
Fri Mar 13, 2015 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying Euro for Vacations?
Replies: 33
Views: 2767

Re: Buying Euro for Vacations?

Very hard to speculate on currencies. Having said that, I think it would be somewhat early to buy euros for speculative purposes at this point. I'd be reluctant to anchor my expectations to the kinds of rates we saw over the past 10 years. These were very unique circumstances, partly related to res...
by William Million
Fri Mar 13, 2015 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying Euro for Vacations?
Replies: 33
Views: 2767

Re: Buying Euro for Vacations?

Very hard to speculate on currencies. Having said that, I think it would be somewhat early to buy euros for speculative purposes at this point. I'd be reluctant to anchor my expectations to the kinds of rates we saw over the past 10 years. These were very unique circumstances, partly related to resp...
by William Million
Mon Mar 09, 2015 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds
Replies: 97
Views: 9668

Re: Question about Govt. TSP: G vs. F Funds

Both F and G are outstanding (and extremely low risk). Many non-govt employees wish they had access to them. Can't go wrong with either one. F will do better in a falling rates environment, and G will do better when rates climb. However, it is meaningless to debate the comparative merits of these tw...
by William Million
Sun Mar 08, 2015 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 5-year CDs
Replies: 22
Views: 2747

Re: 5-year CDs

Here are a few differences between brokered CDs and those purchased directly from a bank or credit union: 1. CDs issued by a bank/CU are "non-negotiable", they cannot be transferred to a third party, with the possible exception of a family member beneficiary. If you decide down the pike t...
by William Million
Sun Mar 08, 2015 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in China
Replies: 8
Views: 875

Re: Investing in China

mikemath wrote:
William Million wrote:Why mess around with relatively stable China? Why not take a flyer on Brazil ETF EWZ, down 80% from peak?
?

Are you for real?


no
by William Million
Sat Mar 07, 2015 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in China
Replies: 8
Views: 875

Re: Investing in China

Why mess around with relatively stable China? Why not take a flyer on Brazil ETF EWZ, down 80% from peak?
?
by William Million
Sat Mar 07, 2015 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in China
Replies: 8
Views: 875

Re: Investing in China

The VWO ETF is a good option. It diversifies across developing markets. Quite a few of its major holdings are Chinese (and Taiwanese) firms. That's the way I'd go (with a modest portion of your equity portfolio).
by William Million
Sat Mar 07, 2015 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: interest rate increase looming. what you gonna do ?
Replies: 65
Views: 6622

Re: interest rate increase looming. what you gonna do ?

Good thing about a CD ladder is you don't have to worry about it.
by William Million
Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Washing Dress Shirts
Replies: 38
Views: 2894

Re: Washing Dress Shirts

I don't think there are any dress shirts that don't show wear after 30 launderings. You can extend it a bit by washing in cold water, or line drying. As a previous poster mentioned, some of the Jos A Bank shirts are quite good,and they come in sizes you won't find in stores. The traveler shirts work...
by William Million
Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Legal Fees for Trusts and Wills
Replies: 37
Views: 2801

Re: Legal Fees for Trusts and Wills

$3000 in Calif.
by William Million
Wed Feb 25, 2015 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a home in SF Bay Area [Dumbo]
Replies: 79
Views: 4805

Re: Buying a home in SF Bay Area

I'm born, raised in Oakland but agree rents are now too high for what you get. Not worth it for someone facing a daily commute to Palo Alto.
by William Million
Sun Feb 22, 2015 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car Accident Question
Replies: 27
Views: 1600

Re: Car Accident Question

SteadyWins wrote:
He lives close to me. Should I be concerned of reprisals at all if I pursue him to court? I have never been the cause of an accident.


No need to "pursue him." Your insurance will take care of it. Unlikely this is ever going to court.
by William Million
Fri Feb 20, 2015 6:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reward checking account paying 3+% interest -- good idea?
Replies: 5
Views: 957

Re: Reward checking account paying 3+% interest -- good idea

Nothing wrong with it, per se, as long as pay off the balance each month. The credit union is obviously hoping you won't pay off the card each month, that you'll end up keeping more than $20,000 in the account, or that you won't notice when they drop the interest rate (after attracting initial depos...
by William Million
Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Career changer and choosing best option?
Replies: 41
Views: 3634

Re: Career changer and choosing best option?

Admire your adaptability. It will serve you well between now and retirement. No point obsessing about people who have more assets; they might have other issues. If you like teaching and have a chance to do it full-time, why not? As you note, trucking carries health as well as relationship challenges...
by William Million
Sat Feb 14, 2015 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5.6% stable value fund - what allocation?
Replies: 29
Views: 2737

Re: 5.6% stable value fund - what allocation?

5.6% guaranteed? If true, I'd do 100% allocation.
by William Million
Sat Feb 14, 2015 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA-CREF dramatically increasing Expense Ratios
Replies: 81
Views: 7991

Re: TIAA-CREF dramatically increasing Expense Ratios

TIAA-CREF has really fallen off a cliff, sad given its roots. In the past, when a poster brought up the company's downfall, he was blasted by TIAA-CREF afecionados. Not anymore.
by William Million
Fri Feb 13, 2015 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College savings costs / number
Replies: 120
Views: 7175

Re: College savings costs / number

"Top" colleges might be one of the most overrated facets of our society. It's the kid who makes it (or doesn't make it). BA/BS from a top college will increase chances of getting into grad school, but that's about it. As for succeeding in the job market, some recruiters actually prefer kid...
by William Million
Mon Feb 09, 2015 6:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: DH and I are buying bicycles
Replies: 39
Views: 1889

Re: DH and I are buying bicycles

Go to the local bike shop and try out a number of different bikes. You'll probably settle on a hybrid with front suspension (for your needs). Nowadays relatively cheap bikes come in multiple sizes, so you can get the bike to fit you. If you pay less than $500, upgrade to more comfortable seat and gr...
by William Million
Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The cult of PE10 - so what?
Replies: 99
Views: 7192

Re: The cult of PE10 - so what?

PE10-triggered market timing is pseudo scientific. I fail to see how. Using data to discover relationships between variables is a classic scientific pursuit. One has to be careful to be sure it isn't just curve fitting by using out of sample data but other than that I'm not sure I understand your a...

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