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Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2015!

I will be retiring in April 2015, after 32 years with my employer...plus a few years in graduate school and a few years working for an Accounting firm before that. Looking forward to it :D Hi Andy, I added you to the list. Please provide the date in April, if you know and are willing to share it. C...
by VictoriaF
Thu Dec 18, 2014 5:48 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2015!
Replies: 25
Views: 2243

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2015!

Class of 2015 as of 18 December 2014: 01 Jan - m139115 (56) 15 Jan - Greenie (63) 30 Jan - VTXVX (51) 31 Jan - dpc 31 Jan - zzcooper123 28 Feb - Jim85 31 Mar - Philliefan33 xx Apr - Wagnerjb <-- New member 01 Apr - Rob54keep (60) 12 May - Girino 30 Jun - beltonr 30 Sep - midmoder 31 Dec - Nearing_D...
by VictoriaF
Thu Dec 18, 2014 5:46 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2015!
Replies: 25
Views: 2243

Re: Favorite Narrators for Fictional Audiobooks

I ended up listening to the whole book since the narrator was so compelling. I couldn't let it go, and if I were listening to it in bed, I would have stayed up all night. But, of course, you will never tell us who that narrator is. Victoria I'm not kidding when I tell you it's not a book I ever wou...
by VictoriaF
Thu Dec 18, 2014 5:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite Narrators for Fictional Audiobooks
Replies: 20
Views: 734

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The Wizard wrote:
Toons wrote:
chaz wrote:No freefall today. :D


Trampoline Bounce :happy

A lot better than a Dead Cat Bounce...


It looks like we are not going to eat (dead) cat food any time soon.

Victoria
by VictoriaF
Thu Dec 18, 2014 5:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1054
Views: 184447

Re: Favorite Narrators for Fictional Audiobooks

frugalguy wrote:I ended up listening to the whole book since the narrator was so compelling. I couldn't let it go, and if I were listening to it in bed, I would have stayed up all night.


But, of course, you will never tell us who that narrator is.

Victoria
by VictoriaF
Thu Dec 18, 2014 5:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite Narrators for Fictional Audiobooks
Replies: 20
Views: 734

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

If you don't know what asset returns are going to be, what is your alternative to simulation? Historical Backtesting seems the Best we've got! Historical backtesting assumes that the future will be exactly like the past. A Monte Carlo simulation that fits a distribution to historical data assumes t...
by VictoriaF
Thu Dec 18, 2014 5:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 8826

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!

Looking at the list makes me feel that my retirement plan may not be realistic. Reality check for me. Why do you say it? Victoria I would like to keep it to myself, sorry for that. I was comparing myself to others on the list. Yes, of course, you should not disclose anything you are not comfortable...
by VictoriaF
Thu Dec 18, 2014 9:57 am
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!
Replies: 251
Views: 24797

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!

flyingaway wrote:Looking at the list makes me feel that my retirement plan may not be realistic. Reality check for me.


Why do you say it?

Victoria
by VictoriaF
Thu Dec 18, 2014 9:38 am
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!
Replies: 251
Views: 24797

Re: Do you travel with friends?

I prefer to travel alone. There is something about exploring places solo that is deeply rewarding. I don't know how to explain this except to say that I feel much more in touch with myself when I travel. I like meeting people, whether fellow travelers or locals, when I travel. But I don't usually w...
by VictoriaF
Thu Dec 18, 2014 9:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you travel with friends?
Replies: 35
Views: 2182

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

If you don't know what asset returns are going to be, what is your alternative to simulation? Historical Backtesting seems the Best we've got! Historical backtesting assumes that the future will be exactly like the past. A Monte Carlo simulation that fits a distribution to historical data assumes t...
by VictoriaF
Thu Dec 18, 2014 8:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 8826

Re: Favorite Narrators for Fictional Audiobooks

I usually select audiobooks based on the subject. I am interested in many topics and have to optimize across my limited time. If I focused on narrators that would result in suboptimal selection. Usually, I don't remember the names of the narrators, but George Guidall is one name that stood out as a ...
by VictoriaF
Thu Dec 18, 2014 8:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite Narrators for Fictional Audiobooks
Replies: 20
Views: 734

Re: Any interest in a Baltimore/Southern PA Chapter?

Forgive my ignorance, but are meetings just an opportunity to get together to discuss and learn from one another? These meetings are different things for different people. At the DC meetings, we frequently have new people who seldom post, have basic questions and are shy to ask them publicly. Some ...
by VictoriaF
Thu Dec 18, 2014 8:09 am
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Any interest in a Baltimore/Southern PA Chapter?
Replies: 14
Views: 831

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

I would highly recommend the book "Being Mortal: Medicine and What Matters in the End," by Atal Gawande to better understand end of life issues. I had this book on my Amazon.com wish list, and this thread has prompted me to order it three days ago. I am glad that you also recommend it. Vi...
by VictoriaF
Thu Dec 18, 2014 8:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 8826

Re: A perfect profession

They do this with television shows too. Criminal Minds tried axing two female characters/actors on the show that most people liked and replacing them with a new female character. When asked why they did this, the answer was something about "fresh" and "new", and not that there w...
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A perfect profession
Replies: 58
Views: 5295

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!

As planned, my last day at work was today. After 37 years, my office is cleaned out, all the goodbyes are said, all the hugs are given and a few tears shed. Someone asked me what was going through my mind today. The answer is a very weird combination of fear of the unknown, sadness at leaving some ...
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:31 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!
Replies: 251
Views: 24797

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!

Class of 2014 as of 17 December 2014: xx xxx - ww340 (61) xx Jan - Gary Guss (62) 01 Jan - pryan (64) 01 Jan - Lilly 01 Jan - rrppve (53) 01 Jan - hudson 01 Jan - Professor Emeritus 01 Jan - nbseer (62) 01 Jan - Statch (55) 10 Jan - tacster (57) 11 Jan - Kaufmanrider (49) 11 Jan - Norris (63) 14 Ja...
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:27 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2014!
Replies: 251
Views: 24797

Re: Free course on 1400-1800 art

Earlier this year I signed up for a Coursera class on Modern Latin Culture but I ended up dropping it because the professor, from a university in Mexico, had such a strong accent. You can watch promotional videos for Coursera and edX courses to decide if you like professors and their presentation. ...
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free course on 1400-1800 art
Replies: 6
Views: 640

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

Christine,

Thank you very much for the response. It would be good to have this discussion in person. Any chance you may attend a Bogleheads conference?

Victoria
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 8826

Re: WHY is retirement enjoyable / something to look forward

Also keep in mind that our bodies undergo some significant changes as we age. Along with the obvious outer physical stuff we can see, there are also sometimes significant changes in body chemistry. We like to think that we're entirely creatures of free will, driven by rational thought and emotion. ...
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WHY is retirement enjoyable / something to look forward to?
Replies: 136
Views: 6880

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Dow down 99.99? Relax, Santa Claus Rally is just around the corner !!! Maybe the Santa Claus rally isn't real. Maybe it's just something our parents made up to make us want to hold stocks in December. :shock: It is real and it is just around the corner . . . this time Santa is moving slowly. I am n...
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1054
Views: 184447

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

It leads to mistakes in investing and mistakes in utilizing our financial resources productively while we're still alive and have enough functioning gray matter to understand what we're doing with it . the other problem is that you may have saved enough, or even purchased a SPIA to insure continued...
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 8826

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

technovelist wrote:
protagonist wrote:I think the first thing to ask is whether you think the Monte Carlo studies are meaningful.


I would say that Monte Carlo studies would be especially relevant to people living in Monaco. :mrgreen:


That was protagonist's point.

I think I should start playing Russian Roulette.

Victoria
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 3:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 8826

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

This is a fascinating thread. Hopefully we will not let it degenerate to a pet food vs whatever other options there are. Thanks, scone, for telling it as it really is. I'd stop before the aspirin. Please explain about aspirin. I am assuming that you are not referring to suffering through simple hea...
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 8826

Re: Do you travel with friends in retirement?

Lynette wrote:I have not kept in touch with any of these people after the tour - sometimes try but it fizzles out - mainly location.


After you retire, location will become less of an issue.

Victoria
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you travel with friends?
Replies: 35
Views: 2182

Free course on 1400-1800 art

I am taking many Coursera courses, but this one from edX seems particularly attractive: Explaining European Paintings, 1400 to 1800 : The Meaning Behind the Art of Caravaggio, Rembrandt, Goya and many more . The course will last 7 weeks starting in February 2015. The estimated workload is 3 hours/we...
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 3:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free course on 1400-1800 art
Replies: 6
Views: 640

Re: WHY is retirement enjoyable / something to look forward

TheTimeLord wrote:Anyway, so my reaction to this thread was I emailed my wife who is traveling for work and told her I really wanted to change.


Would you consider sending your wife a link to this thread and asking her to read it?

Victoria
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WHY is retirement enjoyable / something to look forward to?
Replies: 136
Views: 6880

Re: Which audio books do you listen to?

Here is a list of audio books I have enjoyed: http://www.biketouringtips.com/showTipComments.php?tipID=1447 I listen to them when I go on long bike rides (only using one ear bud). It's interesting that your list includes a book about Thomas Paine. Someone whose opinions I respect has recently menti...
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which audio books do you listen to?
Replies: 16
Views: 679

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Browser wrote:At current valuation levels, a prudent strategy would be to adopt a conservative AA and plan to save more to compensate. The immortality of this thread is testament to the anxiety about stocks. Sell some stocks, sleep better.


Your statement is immortal.

Victoria
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1054
Views: 184447

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

Portfolios don't have an infinite projected life. They have an increasing failure rate as the planning horizon increases. A portfolio with an expected 10% failure rate at the 30-year mark will reach 20%, 30%, 40%, etc., failure rates at longer horizons. Victoria I see we crossed in the post, above ...
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 8826

Re: Which audio books do you listen to?

Here is a list of audio books I have enjoyed: http://www.biketouringtips.com/showTipComments.php?tipID=1447 I listen to them when I go on long bike rides (only using one ear bud). It's interesting that your list includes a book about Thomas Paine. Someone whose opinions I respect has recently menti...
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 9:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which audio books do you listen to?
Replies: 16
Views: 679

Re: Do you travel with friends in retirement?

We do meet new people on travels, but they will be forgotten after the travel. It seems to be difficult to have new friends after certain ages. Adventure trips are more conducive to making deeper connections with other people, some of which evolve into friendships. In retirement, you can take longe...
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 9:52 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you travel with friends?
Replies: 35
Views: 2182

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

A portfolio may have a 10% failure rate for a 30-year duration and, say, a 40% failure rate for a 50-year duration . The latter case is consistent with a combination of a healthy economy and health advances. Delayed Social Security, I-Bonds, TIPS, inflation-indexed pensions and SPIAs significantly ...
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 9:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 8826

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

I wonder, for end of life decisions, if a person who is in declining health (and say acute, chronic pain) could just get Hospice. In my earlier messages, I was referring to palliative care synonymously with hospice. It turns out they are not the same: 11. What is the difference between hospice and ...
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 9:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 8826

Re: Do you travel with friends in retirement?

When you travel the way you like, you meet people who have the same preferences as you. Some of these people become your friends, and then you plan travel with these new friends. In this context, it is rewarding to travel with your friends.

Victoria
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 9:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you travel with friends?
Replies: 35
Views: 2182

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

1. Some risks are in my control, and some risks are not. I can control my asset allocation, including shifting some of my assets to income. I cannot control the solvency of the American government or natural disasters. 2. For the risks that are in my control, I want my Liability Matching Portfolio ...
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 8826

Re: WHY is retirement enjoyable / something to look forward

Your outdoor activities will be better if you have the time to accommodate the seasons and the weather. I go backpacking for 3-4 days between the storms, knowing there will be clear days before the next weather front arrives. This is a very good point. Along the same lines, travel can be done off-s...
by VictoriaF
Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WHY is retirement enjoyable / something to look forward to?
Replies: 136
Views: 6880

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

My main point is that you need to have income and assets that are not affected by the portfolio survival probabilities . In other words, you need an income stream that provides for your needs while you live and dries out when you die, whenever it is. But you can't have that. There is a risk of a gr...
by VictoriaF
Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 8826

Re: A perfect profession

In one set of experiments, the researchers rolled their equipment into a women's clothing store and generated "heat maps" of the focus of the experimental subjects' attention. That enabled them to rearrange mannequins so that buyers coming to the store would notice the outfits that the st...
by VictoriaF
Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A perfect profession
Replies: 58
Views: 5295

Re: A perfect profession

technovelist wrote:Sounds like a perfect profession for "This Perfect Day" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/This_Perfect_Day).


Thank you for the reference. It's a perfect match: the fear of computer programmers in 1970 has evolved into the fear of neuromarketers in 2015.

Victoria
by VictoriaF
Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A perfect profession
Replies: 58
Views: 5295

Re: A perfect profession

This is a consolidated response to those who find the idea of neuromarketing objectionable. "Consolidated" has a nice ring to it. That word must be in the Neuroscientist Nice-Sounding-Words Toolkit, along with $X.99. :) Give me some credit. I wrote eloquently even before I took the neurom...
by VictoriaF
Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A perfect profession
Replies: 58
Views: 5295

Re: A perfect profession

In fact, if you think that you can cleverly bypass marketing ploys, you may be particularly vulnerable to these ploys. Victoria I bypass marketing plays not because I'm clever but because they usually are irrelevant. I think consumer neuroscience is aimed at potential impulse buyers, or buyers conf...
by VictoriaF
Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A perfect profession
Replies: 58
Views: 5295

Re: WHY is retirement enjoyable / something to look forward

Scott Young has a recent blog post on the subject of Career Fulfillment . Young relates career fulfillment to having a meaningful career and describes "meaningfulness" in two ways, economic and psychological. The economic perspective comes down to creating a consumer surplus, i.e., the di...
by VictoriaF
Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WHY is retirement enjoyable / something to look forward to?
Replies: 136
Views: 6880

Re: Bitcoin: The worst investment in 2014

Flashes1 wrote:The decline was predictable.


Did you short it?

Victoria
by VictoriaF
Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: The worst investment in 2014
Replies: 17
Views: 2163

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

protagonist wrote:
VictoriaF wrote:
mickeyd wrote:Why do we keep digging up this old dog?


Long threads strengthen the sense of community.


That's what Ariadne said.


Based on Wikipedia, Ariadne had a strong record in mazes and labyrinths. She's be a valuable contributor to this community.

Victoria
by VictoriaF
Tue Dec 16, 2014 5:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1054
Views: 184447

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

mickeyd wrote:Why do we keep digging up this old dog?


Long threads strengthen the sense of community.

Victoria
by VictoriaF
Tue Dec 16, 2014 4:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1054
Views: 184447

Re: WHY is retirement enjoyable / something to look forward

Scott Young has a recent blog post on the subject of Career Fulfillment . Young relates career fulfillment to having a meaningful career and describes "meaningfulness" in two ways, economic and psychological. The economic perspective comes down to creating a consumer surplus, i.e., the dif...
by VictoriaF
Tue Dec 16, 2014 4:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WHY is retirement enjoyable / something to look forward to?
Replies: 136
Views: 6880

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Dow down 99.99? Relax, Santa Claus Rally is just around the corner !!! Maybe the Santa Claus rally isn't real. Maybe it's just something our parents made up to make us want to hold stocks in December. :shock: It is real and it is just around the corner . . . this time Santa is moving slowly. I am n...
by VictoriaF
Tue Dec 16, 2014 4:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1054
Views: 184447

Re: Bitcoin: The worst investment in 2014

Bitcoins are very useful. If Russian cybercriminals invade your computer, encrypt all your data and request a ransom for decrypting it--they will accept the payment only in bitcoins.

Victoria
by VictoriaF
Tue Dec 16, 2014 4:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin: The worst investment in 2014
Replies: 17
Views: 2163

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

And those medical advances may be quite costly, with only limited insurance coverage provided by Medicare. Every advance will be costly when it will first appear. Then it will get adapted in hospitals around the world and prices will come down. If the value of a treatment is high, I will be willing...
by VictoriaF
Tue Dec 16, 2014 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 8826

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

I am seriously thinking of moving to some place where they do not have defibrillators as standard equipment next to the fire extinguisher. L. It's easier to move to Oregon where people are more open-minded about these issues. Even better, to wait until the "Oregon attitude" is adapted in ...
by VictoriaF
Tue Dec 16, 2014 4:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 8826
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