Search found 24085 matches

Return to advanced search

Re: Why should stocks go up over the long term?

I had a very interesting conversation with one of my senior exec friends about this topic on an airplane flight. After several drinks we concluded that most real returns for corporations have been driven by either some form of labor or commodity arbitrage ('hunters' carving up a felled beast...most...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should stocks go up over the long term?
Replies: 32
Views: 2214

Re: Buying property - frank responses requested

Due to work, I have been living outside the US for 20 years. My last home was in California and I would very much like to but a townhouse and retire in San Diego. I really like the lifestyle. We recently did a house hunting trip and I think I would have to pay $600-625K. Taxes and HOA would be abou...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jul 27, 2014 1:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying property - frank responses requested
Replies: 28
Views: 2598

Re: Ideal Mortgage in Current Environment

I currently live in a high cost area and considering a home purchase in the next year or so. Have about 175-200K saved up for a down payment on a house, and are looking at somewhere in the range of a 500-550K mortgage on a house selling in the range of 650-750K or so. Income qualification for a mor...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ideal Mortgage in Current Environment
Replies: 9
Views: 910

Re: Int'l Train Travel

I should add I have taken a train through the desert in western China (Gansu and Xinjiang provinces). It was adequate. At night so I missed the view. It is surely desolate out there.
by Valuethinker
Sun Jul 27, 2014 9:33 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Int'l Train Travel
Replies: 28
Views: 1424

Re: Int'l Train Travel

The Jacobite train ride in northern Scotland, from Fort William to Mallaig, was memorable. Lots of great scenery, goes through Loch Shiel and Glenfinnan. Not done it, but yes. Any of the Spanish high speed trains are fast & comfortable, but not a ton of scenery. I've been from Madrid to Toledo ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jul 27, 2014 9:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Int'l Train Travel
Replies: 28
Views: 1424

Re: AMZN's magical status

P/E is hardly the only way to judge a company. Suppose you have a company that doesn't do anything other then issue (and buy back) shares, and buys (and sells) gold. When the price of gold is lower then the share price, it buys some gold and sell some shares. When the reverse is true, the company s...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jul 27, 2014 8:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMZN's magical status
Replies: 26
Views: 2745

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

Wind Up Girl by Paolo Bacigalupi Near future dystopia with a genetic engineering theme. Set in Bangkok. Winner of Hugo and Nebula awards. I am about half way through Delta State. I'm glad I bought it. I can't find a book called Delta State. Is it by Bacigalupi? The first book of his I read was bill...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jul 27, 2014 8:15 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3113
Views: 1009370

Re: Int'l Train Travel

Did Canada Jasper to Prince Rupert. Spectacular. You stay overnight in Prince George, which is a bit of a dull place. You can't really get off the train and look around at interesting-looking places like Smithers. You do see the spectacular from the observation car, and the glass roof was very scrat...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 26, 2014 5:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Int'l Train Travel
Replies: 28
Views: 1424

Re: Looking for insights on San Antonio

Mr. Bear's family is from Mexico; no issues with the culture. Our biggest concern is proximity to the border bringing us into contact with cartel violence; however, I wonder if it's more similar to what we experienced living in Japan (we could spot the Yakuza by their cars and ink, but never had an...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 26, 2014 5:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for insights on San Antonio
Replies: 33
Views: 1531

Re: AMZN's magical status

On a full year basis is Amazon on PE 800x? This tells me about 160 times to December 2014. ($1.99 EPS) About 64 times to Dec 2015 ($5.97) on analyst consensus. I agree the valuation is rich. But it is not 800 times. Note the sales growth +22%. The question is when shareholders will call it quits on ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 26, 2014 2:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMZN's magical status
Replies: 26
Views: 2745

Re: Anyone been to Charleston, SC?

Definitely do a ghost tour. Fort Sumter is good if you're a history buff but pretty boring otherwise. Lots of shopping on King Street and the food, well, you won't starve. Plenty of cool bars all over the downtown area. The microbrews in the area are hit or miss, but you get that everywhere. But ye...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 26, 2014 12:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone been to Charleston, SC?
Replies: 27
Views: 1438

Re: Anyone been to Charleston, SC?

Apparently we have to go and see the USS Yorktown while we are there. It would not be my choice if left to my own devices, but I've heard some good reviews from friends that have been, so I don't mind being dragged over to have a look. I only vaguely remember Yorktown. But until you've been on a bi...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 26, 2014 12:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone been to Charleston, SC?
Replies: 27
Views: 1438

Re: Advice wanted on first computer purchase since 1982!

re electronics There is Freecycle. And there must be bulletin boards for electronics hobbyists-- try advertising there. You are right the chips etc. are valuable to someone. Getting rid of all this electronics stuff would be a good step into putting your husband into the right box in your life: as a...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 26, 2014 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice wanted on first computer purchase since 1982!
Replies: 103
Views: 5052

Re: Advice wanted on first computer purchase since 1982!

Problem is that I am feeling overwhelmed by decision fatigue. It just hit this morning that in the last year since my husband died, I have had to make far more decisions all by myself than I ever had in my life before. From choosing investments to repairmen to paper towels. My husband loved shoppin...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 26, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice wanted on first computer purchase since 1982!
Replies: 103
Views: 5052

Re: Advice wanted on first computer purchase since 1982!

3 thoughts - buy the fastest processor and the most RAM you can, even if that means waiting for the thing to be shipped from China - it gives you future proofing . So yes an Intel i7 (since you are using a king sized programme, this is even more important. What happens when they release Mathematica...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 26, 2014 11:33 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice wanted on first computer purchase since 1982!
Replies: 103
Views: 5052

Re: Rather be Home, Rather be at Work

[ editied]
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 26, 2014 10:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rather be Home, Rather be at Work
Replies: 19
Views: 1875

Re: Rather be Home, Rather be at Work

even now I appreciate the quiet organization of my workplace and day, if not the work itself. I think is the core of it for me. The organization and structure (and quiet office) are satisfying, contributing and getting paid is a fine bonus. You have a quiet office?? Must be nice, my company moved t...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jul 26, 2014 10:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rather be Home, Rather be at Work
Replies: 19
Views: 1875

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

[quote="HardKnocker"][/quote]

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=91646&start=3050#p2125309

is my take on the book.
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 24, 2014 1:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3113
Views: 1009370

Re: Individual MBS & UITs in taxable account

I have no idea how to even find out where I am in the SPV capital structure or technically even what a SPV is :D . Special Purpose Vehicle. Fancy lawyer speak. Basically the SPV is the entity which buys the mortgages from the originator bank and at the same time issues the bonds to investors. If it...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 11:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual MBS & UITs in taxable account
Replies: 16
Views: 538

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

Renewable energy means big demands for grid infrastructure. Wind farms and solar farms tend to be in remote areas and they have to be hooked up to the grid, a major constraint. In the UK you add offshore wind. The future of power transmission is in long distance and international High Voltage DC li...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 87
Views: 4980

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

For instance the UK makes up 15% of total Euro GDP (UK 3% of global GDP) and in 2017 there may be a OUT of EU referendum in the UK - perhaps to converge/combine more with the 21% 'others' (Canada 2.5%, Australia 2% ...etc).. Just on this - the UK is not in the Euro so it pulling out of the EU does ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 10:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 87
Views: 4980

Re: Individual MBS & UITs in taxable account

Maybe here's a better way to frame the opportunity cost point. If I did not own this security now, given the risks, would I buy it? If the answer is no, then you should be a seller. The only question is when and what it will cost you to sell. On the sub investment grade one, a sale is what you want,...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 10:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual MBS & UITs in taxable account
Replies: 16
Views: 538

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

But at the moment, there is this shift (I don't know how big) towards settling in gold. gold Renminbisation BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) is 35% of world trade (global GDP), 42% of the global population, yet have a relatively (disproportionately) small international (financial) voice (11% of ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 87
Views: 4980

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

I am normally a big sceptic on gold BUT recent actions by the US to freeze bank accounts (eg connected to Iran) have meant more countries are using gold as a means of settlement (you can't freeze gold). That means there is a demand shift in favour of gold. I just don't know how big this could get, ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 87
Views: 4980

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

I am normally a big sceptic on gold BUT recent actions by the US to freeze bank accounts (eg connected to Iran) have meant more countries are using gold as a means of settlement (you can't freeze gold). That means there is a demand shift in favour of gold. I just don't know how big this could get, ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 87
Views: 4980

Re: If Argentina Defaults

Also, despite all the jokes about lawyers and litigation in the U.S., U.S. courts are respected, and U.S. property rights are strong and desired (hence why many foreigners purchase property in the United States, the constitutional guarantee against government takings without due process is paramoun...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Argentina Defaults
Replies: 21
Views: 1965

Re: If Argentina Defaults

Do you really understand the Argentine economy. With all due respect and love for the Argentine people, the business community and government is one big Mafia-like environment. How do I know? I spent several years including >50% 1999-2001 living and working in Buenos Aires. My Porteno friends say i...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Argentina Defaults
Replies: 21
Views: 1965

Re: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets

The US is in a global capital market with few barriers to flows. And the USD is the numeraire and settlement currency of the world, so there is lower exchange rate risk for investors from abroad in any case (their liabilities and imports are also denominated in USD to an extent, as well as their ass...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets
Replies: 45
Views: 5367

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

There's lack of faith in any one single primary reserve currency. The tendency is more towards a one-world fiat paper standard (a new currency unit) issued by a World Reserve Bank - "the bancor", "unita", "phoenix", rather than a return to the finite reserves gold stan...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 87
Views: 4980

Re: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets

Isn't the idea to basically have enought to live off the interest . Why are they so worried everyone will run to the bank and liquidate . In Japan long term government bonds pay less than 1%. Possibly below inflation (depending on whether the plan to create inflation succeeds). You need an *awful* ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets
Replies: 45
Views: 5367

Re: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets

I have bigger concerns about what baby boomers will do to the medicare/social-security systems, especially if the current job and wage growth is a new norm... but if jobs and wages start heating up I imagine inflation won't be to far behind... seems there's always something to worry about. The US i...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 6:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets
Replies: 45
Views: 5367

Re: Individual MBS & UITs in taxable account

Thank you. :beer The S&P equivalent is a BB+ which is below investment grade. I was leaning towards selling the GMAC already, this just pushes me farther towards that action. I have another one that is in an inherited IRA that is BBB as well. Now I just need to figure out how to do it at Vangua...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 6:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual MBS & UITs in taxable account
Replies: 16
Views: 538

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

Just started Raising Steam the latest Discworld novel by Terry Pratchett and under the circumstances who knows how many more there will be. He is slipping fast. It will depend on his co-writers. The UK lost JG Ballard (a science fiction writer so valued by the literary world that his obituaries wer...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3113
Views: 1009370

Re: Help With Investment Options [Pension, retirement plans]

I hope I posted this in the right forum. Here goes. I have recently been contacted by my previous employer, and they are giving me an option to take the pension I had with them in a lump sum. It is around $21,000. This is a one time deal with no penalties. I also have a 401k with this same previous...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help With Investment Options [Pension, retirement plans]
Replies: 2
Views: 339

Re: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index

IGovernment officials and regulators have been very specific that next time, corporate bond holders would share 'more of the pain' in any rescue operation. Everyone has seen what Ireland did (guaranteeing the bonds issued by the banks-- see Michael Lewis, Boomerang ) and that it put a huge burden o...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index
Replies: 76
Views: 6586

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

I am normally a big sceptic on gold BUT recent actions by the US to freeze bank accounts (eg connected to Iran) have meant more countries are using gold as a means of settlement (you can't freeze gold). That means there is a demand shift in favour of gold. I just don't know how big this could get, b...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 87
Views: 4980

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

Some fun facts about gold. Current estimates are that approximately 171,000 tones of gold have been mined by humans in all of history. If all of that gold was melted down into a single bar it would form a cube about 20 meters on a side (67 ft) which is about the size of an average McMansion. By con...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 87
Views: 4980

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

It might be possible to have a serious discussion, but a discussion that starts with trains leaving the station isn't serious. My father has studied the energy field for years. In part because of the need for renewal* of the electric power grid in the US, he had invested in various copper mining st...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 87
Views: 4980

Re: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets

Basically the US population is still growing and will keep doing so well into the 21st Century. That's key. The US will still need new housing (albeit more of it, likely, in city centres and less in suburbs*). There are going to be 450 million Americans c. 2050. A lower rate of growth, but still gro...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets
Replies: 45
Views: 5367

Re: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets

International investors will quickly shore up any inefficiencies in the market caused by a mass sale of assets by baby boomers. We already see this in CA and NY and even Chicago real-estate markets where desirable properties are being snapped up by cash buyers from overseas. People (foreign or dome...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets
Replies: 45
Views: 5367

Re: Individual MBS & UITs in taxable account

If you want to sell the UIT just call Vanguard. I moved a UIT over a couple months back and had to call them to sell (it was $35 as you state in your OP). If I remember correctly they told me there was no way for me to do it online. Right now I am leaning towards keeping the UITs. They are such a s...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual MBS & UITs in taxable account
Replies: 16
Views: 538

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

That war being amongst the most fruitless of a fruitless conflict. The Italians were bribed to go to war by being offered the Tirol by France and England. The parliament wasn't even allowed to vote on it. The war turned into a nightmare of bloody battles in Tirolia and Slovenia/ Trieste area, with ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3113
Views: 1009370

Re: If Argentina Defaults

Would it be a good time to buy Argentine stocks, for example in the ETF ARGT? Would it be a good time to convert some dollars into Argentine pesos, if the currency loses value, with the hope that in the next few years it will regain some value? For example, see this article: http://www.businessinsi...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Argentina Defaults
Replies: 21
Views: 1965

Re: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index

Munir I have a couple of concerns here: 1. not all dips are temporary. If we think of inflation and bonds in the period about 1955-1980, this was anything but 'temporary'. Similarly there are plenty of records (especially including international markets) of multi year bear markets in equities. Eg 19...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index
Replies: 76
Views: 6586

Re: Bond funds- your percentage of intermediate vs. short-te

Nisiprius I think part of the problem is the returns on cash have fallen so much. They are now negative in real terms before tax! I agree that has led to an increase in our risk profiles, against which we are often unwitting (grammar). If we had a rerun of the 1930s of course we would all go back to...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds- your percentage of intermediate vs. short-term?
Replies: 12
Views: 1129

Re: Anyone attend Worcester Polytechnic Institute

I know I wouldn't hire a fresh grad whose major was Engineering Management. What is she going to manage? I'd rather hire a mechanical engineer and send him/her to get their masters in engineering management once they prove their worth. The only thing I can say to that is that great leaders are born...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 22, 2014 7:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone attend Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Replies: 45
Views: 2420

Re: Lost a lot in stocks and starting fresh: Please Help

Hi Everyone, I am new to this forum. I have been reading a lot of posts recently and decided to post my financial situation. I have lost quite a bit stocks and options in the last 5 years (Yes all those years When the markets literally went up by 150%). I want to start from scratch, Please offer su...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lost a lot in stocks and starting fresh: Please Help
Replies: 90
Views: 12000

Re: What if the market doesn't recover for a long period?

It's great that OP understands that stock holders risk their principal even if they intend to hold for "the long term". Here is a relevant Paper from UC Irvine: The Long Term Risks of Global Stock Markets Thank you very much for that! Note the conclusion suggests global diversification wo...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if the market doesn't recover for a long period?
Replies: 40
Views: 5636
Next

Return to advanced search