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Re: Get 17% in russian savings account?

In 1998 Russia effectively defaulted on its local RUB debt (forced exchange for bonds worth less) but honored its foreign currency (USD) debt*. Currently the 2030 Russian Eurobond I mentioned, which is the benchmark, yields around 7.4%, or ~540 above the LIBOR swap curve. The 5 yr Russia credit def...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 28, 2015 4:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get 17% in russian savings account?
Replies: 41
Views: 3579

Re: Is it time to buy the Greek Index or Euro?

... From memory Lyndon La Rouche was a Trotskyite? I am not sure that ever changed- -the Trotskyite philosophy is you infiltrate moderate left wing parties from within to foment revolution. He tried to take over the Socialist Party in America? And when he could not, set up his own party? ... I want...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 28, 2015 4:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to buy the Greek Index or Euro?
Replies: 15
Views: 1019

Re: Is it time to buy the Greek Index or Euro?

Greece right now believes that living by your national means is for the birds, and this winning party says that they can start spending again, and the Euro people, especially Germany, will give them more money. Germans, i.e. work hard and live within their means, so why should they support this Gre...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 28, 2015 4:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to buy the Greek Index or Euro?
Replies: 15
Views: 1019

Re: Investing in London UK

On a 2 to 3 year time horizon OP is best advised to keep the money in cash. There are various term deposits that pay a little more than zero.

Probably in cash in a USD account if the move to the USA is certain. No telling where currencies would go in that time.
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 28, 2015 3:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in London UK
Replies: 3
Views: 274

Re: Newer washing machine freaks out dog

OK in Europe everyone has front loaders. We have a Bosch, and that's an 'upper middle' manufacturer.. Miele is top drawer, Siemens is Bosch but made in Germany not Poland or wherever. Then you get Electrolux etc. Yes they make a noise when filling. Yes they make a 'grinding' noise agitating the wate...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 28, 2015 3:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Newer washing machine freaks out dog
Replies: 30
Views: 1359

Re: Get 17% in russian savings account?

I do not remember the details but one of the things that brought LTCM down in 1998 was that the Russians defaulted on one type of debt, but not another. So that shows they are at least capable of doing something other than what the market expects. Doing what LTCM expects is not the same as doing wh...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 12:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get 17% in russian savings account?
Replies: 41
Views: 3579

Re: Advice? 1 year w/ TIAA-CREF

Hello, A year ago, Bogleheads helped me select a portfolio for my wife through TIAA-CREF. I just wanted to see if I was doing everything right. Any suggestions/recommendations would be greatly appreciated. Age: 27 Salary: $105K annually Quarterly Retirement Portfolio Statement October 01, 2014 - De...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice? 1 yr w/ TIAA-CREF and 457B
Replies: 6
Views: 259

Re: Do any young investors use Only fixed income?

Or are there any educated people out there who can explain the downside to investing heavily in things like muni bonds that are backed by the state govt? - from 1802 to 2013, US stocks have an annual real return of 6.6% - Post World War II, US long-term government bonds have an annual real return o...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do any young investors use Only fixed income?
Replies: 34
Views: 2874

Re: Do any young investors use Only fixed income?

A couple of points: - as per other investors only real return matters - putting it all into munis invites policy risk. Tax policies change. Over a lifetime they change a lot. That they have not changed over the last 60 years, say, in this matter, is no protection. This is a significantly higher risk...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do any young investors use Only fixed income?
Replies: 34
Views: 2874

Re: Get 17% in russian savings account?

But it is harvesting a *risk* premium: as mentioned, the RUB depreciated around 7% yesterday v USD. That's a pretty rough start, if one had put on the trade a couple of days ago, on hoping to take in some fraction of 17% (assuming that's the rate differential) in a year one might believe is a risk ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get 17% in russian savings account?
Replies: 41
Views: 3579

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Not quite sure where you were coming from re Scott's more recent work? As Alien and BR were much earlier. Alien was a tour de force as well, probably one of the most effective horror films ever made. Recent work like Get Santa, various dabblings in video games, the Old Testament etc. High Castle wa...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 442
Views: 57052

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

American Sniper. It's very inspiring and a great read for patriotic Americans. http://www.amazon.com/Enemy-at-Gates-Jude-Law/dp/B00003CXRA had something to say about snipers (at the Battle of Stalingrad, one of the greatest and most terrible battles in modern history). Bob Hoskins as the apparatchi...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 442
Views: 57052

Re: Is it time to buy the Greek Index or Euro?

In yesterday's Greek election the communist , Alexis Tsipras, wins. ... Assuming that was an innocent error, rather than a political aspersion, Syriza is a different party. The Communist Party won two seats, but Syriza is not them, and is only two seats shy of an outright parliamentary majority. To...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 9:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to buy the Greek Index or Euro?
Replies: 15
Views: 1019

Re: Is it time to buy the Greek Index or Euro?

In yesterday's Greek election the communist , Alexis Tsipras, wins. ... Assuming that was an innocent error, rather than a political aspersion, Syriza is a different party. The Communist Party won two seats, but Syriza is not them, and is only two seats shy of an outright parliamentary majority. To...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 9:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to buy the Greek Index or Euro?
Replies: 15
Views: 1019

Re: Is it time to buy the Greek Index or Euro?

In yesterday's Greek election the communist, Alexis Tsipras, wins. But this was expected news, as recently as two weeks ago he was the projected winner and around that time the markets had all but stabilized. So to me the markets will self correcting with known and expected/likely information and o...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 9:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to buy the Greek Index or Euro?
Replies: 15
Views: 1019

Re: Question on Interest Rates and the Fed

A simple question (I hope) . . . If the Fed were to increase interest rates, does that mean that the yield on the (10-year) treasury will go up from 1.80%? If you're wondering why I'm asking: Mortgage rates are closely associated with treasuries, and I'm curious what direct impact the Fed's rate wo...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 9:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question on Interest Rates and the Fed
Replies: 3
Views: 452

Re: Get 17% in russian savings account?

Isn't the 17% just compensating (or not even) for high Russian inflation? Do Russian banks let you deposit dollars at the same interest rate? Don't know what the Eurodollar rate they are paying is? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-21/banks-jockey-for-deposits-as-dollars-get-costlier-russia-cre...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 7:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get 17% in russian savings account?
Replies: 41
Views: 3579

Re: Get 17% in russian savings account?

There's a reason the Russian lawmakers wanted to pass a law to ban holdings in foreign currency, especially USD. Nobody in Russia wants to hold rubles. Nobody. People are even willing to spend their money on toasters and microwaves, just so that they don't end up with worthless rubles. If nobody wa...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 7:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get 17% in russian savings account?
Replies: 41
Views: 3579

Re: Get 17% in russian savings account?

There's a reason the Russian lawmakers wanted to pass a law to ban holdings in foreign currency, especially USD. Nobody in Russia wants to hold rubles. Nobody. People are even willing to spend their money on toasters and microwaves, just so that they don't end up with worthless rubles. If nobody wa...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 7:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get 17% in russian savings account?
Replies: 41
Views: 3579

Re: Renaissance tech vs EMH

Renaissance appears to violate Type I efficiency.

But since their algorithms remain proprietary, it's possible to have information the market does not have and therefore outperform it.
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 4:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renaissance tech vs EMH
Replies: 17
Views: 830

Re: Get 17% in russian savings account?

Are we planning here to invest in rubles, or in US dollar bonds issued by the Russian government? Most EM bonds are in USD, not the local currency. This matters. The higher ruble rate will simply be offset by the depreciating currency (unless peace breaks out, oil price goes up again, Putin has a ch...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 3:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get 17% in russian savings account?
Replies: 41
Views: 3579

Re: natural gas wall heater?

I would think the electric ignition would require power?

Please please buy a CO (carbon monoxide) detector. These things can kill-- bad installation or a fault develops.
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 26, 2015 8:52 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: natural gas wall heater?
Replies: 16
Views: 1033

Re: Best short term investment options

livesoft wrote:What was a CD paying during the .com boom? … About 5% for a 1-year.


And tech stocks were doing +100% pa, and then they weren't ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best short term investment options
Replies: 11
Views: 649

Re: How to get things wrong - Swiss Franc (CHF)

It's an interesting contrast: the goal of the SNB is to bring the value of the CHF down and the goal of the CBR (Central Bank of Russia) is to bring the value of the Ruble up. I wonder if it provides an opportunity for arbitrage. Victoria YIKES! Currency arb = swimming with large hungry sharks. Wit...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to get things wrong - Swiss Franc (CHF)
Replies: 32
Views: 3516

Re: Hawaii Visit (Maui). Need advice

Rent a Ferrari for a day. $1500, but when will you ever have the chance to drive around in a Ferrari again? We attempted to rent a Porsche 911 on our honeymoon, but the 2 that the rental place had were in the body shop from previous renters excapades. Isn't Hawaii the perfect place to rent a Jeep? ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hawaii Visit (Maui). Need advice
Replies: 30
Views: 2048

Re: Best short term investment options

Hi all, I recently received a gift of about 75k that we are planning to use to buy a house in about 10-12 months. As such I'd like to invest this money safely. I was planning to put it into a savings account but with the terrible interest rates was wondering if bogleheads have any thoughts on the b...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best short term investment options
Replies: 11
Views: 649

Re: How to get things wrong - Swiss Franc (CHF)

How can a central bank, with the capacity to create an unlimited amount of money, become insolvent in any meaningful sense? It's insolvent if it can't main price stability (i.e. a constant rate of inflation). That does not make sense, at least under standard definitions and practices. Central banks...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to get things wrong - Swiss Franc (CHF)
Replies: 32
Views: 3516

Re: Heat pump - drop temperature at night or keep constant?

there are controllers you can get which take into account outside temperature and the heating characteristics of your house. Generally as per the other poster, with HPs you want big, slow moves in temperature-- ie the pump to come on hours before you need the house at a given temperature. http://www...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Heat pump - drop temperature at night or keep constant?
Replies: 17
Views: 1189

Re: Did the Swiss stock market really lose 9%?

And this is precisely the point. We quote stock market moves from the perspective of the home currency, otherwise it would be too confusing-- couldn't separate out index moves from currency moves. On the contrary I think it's more meaningful to have a market index based on a trade-weighted currency...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did the Swiss stock market really lose 9%?
Replies: 15
Views: 2187

Re: Good Modern Science Fiction

I am not sure if we mentioned Kim Stanley Robinson on this thread, but we should

- the California trilogy

- the Mars trilogy


Him and China Mieiville
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Modern Science Fiction
Replies: 151
Views: 8349

Re: Reliability of LED televisions?

I can't speak to LED tvs in particular. But modern electronics obey the 'bathtub curve' of reliability. The density of electronic components is so high that if there are failures, they happen early (basically the thing was built wrong in the first place-- faulty component). Then failure rate falls t...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 25, 2015 4:58 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Reliability of LED televisions?
Replies: 18
Views: 1208

Re: Anyone else love reading textbooks?

Well, as a HS science teacher I can tell you that I have about 50 different science textbooks on my classroom shelf and not more than a handful of them are truly good. Some of offerings by the biggest publishers like Pearson are so bad as to be virtually unusable in the classroom. And their electro...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 24, 2015 11:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone else love reading textbooks?
Replies: 82
Views: 2738

Re: Anyone else love reading textbooks?

I like to read history textbooks as many contain factual errors. How do you know that many history textbooks contain factual errors? I don't doubt that many do. But how do you recognize the errors? Do you do primary historical research yourself? That must be hard to do with a full-time job as a pro...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 24, 2015 11:32 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone else love reading textbooks?
Replies: 82
Views: 2738

Re: Anyone else love reading textbooks?

I've saved most of my college textbooks, too, and I enjoy seeing what I highlighted back then (if the highlights aren't too faded!). If I were to read them again at length, I'd be curious to see if I would highlight the same passages. I also was a heavy highlighter of my college textbooks (plus scr...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 24, 2015 11:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone else love reading textbooks?
Replies: 82
Views: 2738

Re: Anyone else love reading textbooks?

[ Re history texts: are you referring to errors of fact or just differing interpretation of events? n 1942, Columbus sailed the ocean blue. :D ;) Columbus 'discovering' the New World always puts a smile to my lips. As if 30,000 years of human history just didn't count. Read Charles Mann 1491 and 14...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 24, 2015 11:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone else love reading textbooks?
Replies: 82
Views: 2738

Re: Anyone else love reading textbooks?

Maybe was in school too longer in my earlier life, but I've finally come to the conclusion that textbooks are my favorite genre of reading. Ok, not super heavy tomes on dense theoretical physics, but the kind of textbook that would be used in an entry-level college class - I actually enjoy reading ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 24, 2015 11:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone else love reading textbooks?
Replies: 82
Views: 2738

Re:

Just a thought. We have a refrigerator that is 30 years old now, and is working fine as I speak. This is unbelivable but true. I do most of my maintenance on my home and have found that if you do it yourself you save big bucks. I am retired at 58 because I fix all most of all my material things. Th...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 24, 2015 5:17 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Annual Home Maintenance Expenses
Replies: 47
Views: 8082

Re: Annual Home Maintenance Expenses

When you want to sell the house you'll spend at least 1% of value on it. New paint. Maybe new carpets. Any external decorations or repairs that need doing. Those little 'quirks' that don't bother you but which will show up on a home inspection. Seems crazy because you know the new owners will repain...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 24, 2015 5:09 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Annual Home Maintenance Expenses
Replies: 47
Views: 8082

Re: buying vs renting in Queens

Given you have a young child and you live in NYC, I'd buy. Get on the ladder. Demand for well located housing in greater NYC exceeds supply Risks: - you might in a few years have a bigger downpayment for a better house - housing prices might not keep going up in NYC as they have, the city could have...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 24, 2015 5:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: buying vs renting in Queens
Replies: 18
Views: 1199

Re: $7 gas - what would you do?

I am terrible with macro economic forecasts so it affirms my index approach to investing. We recently convinced landlord to convert our ancient oil boiler to gas. Now heating oil prices have plummeted. We bought a Prius in 2012- gas is cheap. Both decisions benefit us long term and were made for ot...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 23, 2015 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $7 gas - what would you do?
Replies: 125
Views: 18599

Re: $7 gas - what would you do?

No change - neither my wife nor I have ever owned a car. I can bike (10 minutes), bus (10-50 minutes), or walk (40 minutes) to work. My wife either buses or carpools to work. All of our amenities (grocery store, library, doctor, etc.) are easily accessible without a car. If gas hit $7/gal, nothing ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:58 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $7 gas - what would you do?
Replies: 125
Views: 18599

Re: $7 gas - what would you do?

The big costs of driving are fixed costs for most: insurance + depreciation + lease finance costs (if any). These don't vary much with mileage. Depreciation is a function of mileage. it is in physical terms on a car, but it's also financially true. A 5 year old car is worth a lot less than a new ca...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $7 gas - what would you do?
Replies: 125
Views: 18599

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Frankl was not trying to acquire or influence followers. He had extreme life experiences and wanted to share the insights he has gained from these experiences. His "story" is better because it is more sincere. Victoria There is an internal dimension of Frankel's work-- he is trying to jus...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 442
Views: 57052

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Both Frankl and Rand are philosophers who wrote popular books. I've never read Frankl but I have read Rand's major works. I wouldn't call Rand a philosopher, any more than I would call L Ron Hubbard a scientist. Matt Taibbi pretty much summed up the entirety of Rand's "philosophy" very we...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 442
Views: 57052

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Both Frankl and Rand are philosophers who wrote popular books. I've never read Frankl but I have read Rand's major works. I wouldn't call Rand a philosopher, any more than I would call L Ron Hubbard a scientist. I think there's a risk of false analogy there. Hubbard was a science fiction writer who...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:21 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 442
Views: 57052

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Who is more authoritative: Matt Taibbi or Wikipedia? You may disagree with Rand's philosophy, but it does not make her un-philosopher. Victoria I think we have to say Rand had a philosophy and she disseminated it primarily by her novels. This gets blurry because of course we don't call Tolstoy a ph...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:16 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 442
Views: 57052

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Frankl was not trying to acquire or influence followers. He had extreme life experiences and wanted to share the insights he has gained from these experiences. His "story" is better because it is more sincere. Victoria There is an internal dimension of Frankel's work-- he is trying to jus...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 23, 2015 11:14 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 442
Views: 57052

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Man's Search for Meaning I found insightful. Rand? Not so much. I found Frankl's book much more interesting than Rand's (particularly his recount of his story, the first half of the book)... It should be mentioned I generally don't care for fiction. Friederich Nietzche had many of the same ideas as...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 23, 2015 10:05 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 442
Views: 57052

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Ellison's work for Outer Limits is also high quality. Demon with a Glass Hand is one of the best TV scripts ever, and of course Soldier which was the basis for the Terminator plagiarism suit. Rumors are out there about a sequel for Demon written for Babylon 5, however that is maybe just talk. Ursul...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 23, 2015 9:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 442
Views: 57052

Re: Question: Will Candles Heat up a Cold Room?

Another question is this: having recently replaced our smoke detectors and added a second CO detector on the advice of leaflets distributed by our local fire department... how many candles does it take to set off smoke detectors and CO detectors in an average-sized room? :) I recently attended an i...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:33 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question: Will Candles Heat up a Cold Room?
Replies: 21
Views: 1694
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