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Re: Paper or plastic?

We never use paper bags (they break) or reusable bags (they cost). We only use single use plastic bags (free). Not free, actually. Think of the long term global cost, i.e. the oceanic garbage patches, the death of many sea animals and birds from ingesting plastic. I'll spare you my including a phot...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 02, 2014 9:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Paper or plastic?
Replies: 62
Views: 2370

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=google+images+letter+of+credit&client=firefox-a&hs=jSp&rls=org.mozilla:en-GB:official&channel=np&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=0b4FVNv9MrCT0QWK2oHAAw&ved=0CAgQ_AUoAQ&biw=1280&bih=952#facrc=_&imgdii=_&imgrc=Hfwt_saVC...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 02, 2014 8:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3279
Views: 1117706

Re: Which generator do you have?

I'm currently in the market for an 8kW diesel, which would become our main generator. Gasoline is sort of a pain, because it needs to be fresh, and it's more dangerous to store. Plus I have a 500 gallon oil tank which I could use to run a diesel generator if need be. 8kW would allow me to run most ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 02, 2014 7:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which generator do you have?
Replies: 51
Views: 2331

Re: Should elderly play it safe & risk not having enough or

Much of the discussion on this forum tends towards people planning for retirement, or people just in retirement (60s and 70s). I've not found a ton of discussion about 80-somethings. So I have a general question that I've been pondering about my parents' portfolio... I've written a few times about ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 02, 2014 7:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should elderly play it safe & risk not having enough or no?
Replies: 17
Views: 1905

Re: Why invest in foreign funds?

The gap between an ADR and its home country price I'm UK so know little about ADR's but I thought they actually bought/held/traded the actual foreign stocks and I put any differences down to being due to FX (stock price change +/- FX change) In this chart BP.L is London (GP£) BP price, BP is US$ BP...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 02, 2014 7:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in foreign funds?
Replies: 34
Views: 1789

Re: Paper or plastic?

Given all the hype over the proposed ban, is this really an issue with the Boglehead community? One leading local grocer shifted to small paper bags (for produce and such) with no apparent impact. At checkout, I've always asked for "paper", and would be more than happy to pay a few cents ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 02, 2014 6:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Paper or plastic?
Replies: 62
Views: 2370

Re: Retirement Buyout Offer

My father in-law was offered a lump sum from work. He is 58 years old and plans to work around 4 more years. He still has a pension through his work a well. The question is whether to take the lump sum of $78,000 now and roll it into something or wait and take out a single life annuity of about $60...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 02, 2014 6:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Buyout Offer
Replies: 3
Views: 663

Re: What Movie Have You [Recently] Watched?

a Japanese animation " Grave of the Fireflys " . Haven't seen it, but knowing what it's about, it must be fairly depressing? It is. It is also one of the best animated films ever made. 97% on Rotten Tomatoes. If you are willing to let a film evoke these sorts of feelings I would highly re...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 02, 2014 6:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 65
Views: 2291

Re: What Movie Have You [Recently] Watched?

Gort wrote:"This Gun for Hire" made in 1946. Was on TCM (Turner Classic Movies) last night. TCM is great to catch some of the classics.


+1 on TCM. Whenever I catch a hotel room with TCM, I am glued.
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 02, 2014 5:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 65
Views: 2291

Re: What Movie Have You [Recently] Watched?

may have missed it already in this thread but "Guardians of the Galaxy" of the 2 superhero movies I did watch this summer, (the other was X Men Days of Future Past , which had some excellent acting, some good special effects, but was otherwise forgettable) this one was distinguished by som...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 02, 2014 5:58 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 65
Views: 2291

Re: What Movie Have You [Recently] Watched?

[edited confused Untouchables with Intouchables]
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 02, 2014 5:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 65
Views: 2291

Re: Ghostbusters

30th anniversary, remastered in 4K. Just came back from it. We were a grand total of 4 people (!) in a gigantic XD theater. I was redeeming some Cinemark prepaid tickets bought at Costco. The XD is supposed to be extra charge for their premium XD with leather seats, but the clerk didn't know much e...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 02, 2014 5:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 65
Views: 2291

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

Finally finished reading The Dream of the Celt by Mario Vargas Llosa. The book is a fictional biography of Roger Casement, a leading figure in Irish nationalism. Professionally he was a diplomat in the service of the Crown and was responsible for documenting terrible human rights abuses in the Cong...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 02, 2014 5:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3279
Views: 1117706

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Yes, the standard way to get higher expected returns is to take more risk. If the US seems too safe, perhaps increase your allocation to foreign stocks. If emerging markets seem too safe, consider frontier markets. There's usually a reason some stocks are less expensive; taking the extra risk often...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 02, 2014 5:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 168
Views: 9988

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Governance and financial reporting has gotten better in *some* places (Europe for one). But we are not out of the woods on this one, by any means. One I think I note in the last 36 months is how much things have gone backwards. Current political situation with Russia is as bad as the Cold War. Iraq...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 02, 2014 5:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 168
Views: 9988

Re: Why invest in foreign funds?

To contextualize this discussion, the real question to me is "Why would one deviate from global capitalization weighted investing ie c. 50% US equities right now?" For an investor in almost any country except the US, the answer is one should not have home country bias. No other market is s...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 02, 2014 5:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in foreign funds?
Replies: 34
Views: 1789

Re: Why invest in foreign funds?

. I think the primary reason to invest in non-US developed market equity is diversification. If you think the US and non-US developed market equity returns and volatility over the long-term will be the same, and that the correlation between the two will be less than 1, then the mean-variance effici...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 02, 2014 5:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in foreign funds?
Replies: 34
Views: 1789

Re: Why invest in foreign funds?

iShares NYSE Composite ETF (NYC) - which is due to close in October, includes holding ADR's - which make up around 30% I believe of that index/fund. Compare the S&P500 with NYC and you don't see much of a difference. https://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=NYC&t=my&q=l&l=on&z=m&...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 02, 2014 5:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in foreign funds?
Replies: 34
Views: 1789

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

There are good reasons to believe the historical ERP since 1980 is optimistic, as pointed out in the Fama-French research linked above. The effect of real interest rates falling from 10% in 1980 to 0% today significantly boosted the equity premium, in their view — and it's mathematically impossible...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 01, 2014 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 168
Views: 9988

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

"Clearly", I have a question. How do you get 8% Nominal GDP growth from 3.5% (Real?) Growth rate and 2.5% inflation?? Shouldn't that be 6% Nominal GDP, or am I reading this wrong?? I think it's just a typo. Empirically quote earnings growth is about 1% pa less than GDP. The difference is ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 01, 2014 4:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 168
Views: 9988

Re: Emerging markets 1900-2013

I repeat: The idea that small investors have a special advantage in small stocks that larger investors can not arbitrage away is not plausible. I know of 2 basic arguments, neither of which to my mind has been entirely refuted: - the first is dealing costs. Spreads on small cap cos are large, and t...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 01, 2014 1:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets 1900-2013
Replies: 53
Views: 4713

Re: A Primer on John Templeton

https://www.franklintempleton.ca/en-ca/public/funds/performance/29 Just checked Fund/ MSCI world 15 yr 2,73% 2.39% inception 11.94% (inception was earlier than I thought - 1954 it looks like) doesn't give a stock index comparable So you are marginally ahead over 15 years in CAD terms. In the A Class...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 01, 2014 6:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Primer on John Templeton
Replies: 28
Views: 2060

Re: A Primer on John Templeton

The thread set out to laud John Templeton. As the OP of this thread, I can clearly state my intention was not to "laud" John Templeton. :) I simply like his way of market-timing. It coincides with my own method. It's easy to see markets are overvalued. It's much harder to see when that st...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 01, 2014 5:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Primer on John Templeton
Replies: 28
Views: 2060

Re: Buying a house, sell REITs?

It's been a good strategy in previous times to buy a property if you can whence in grad school/ post doc. Particularly if you can rent a room out to a fellow (compatible!) grad student. Whereas I am all for not rushing on these things, 3 years is a time when one might see some reasonable price appre...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 01, 2014 4:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying a house, sell REITs?
Replies: 8
Views: 797

Re: Calculating REIT percentage

It looks like you are 10% REITs and 10% stocks? US market about 2.5% is RE securities. So 2.5% of 10% is 0.25%? So the effect is miniscule on the US side. Not sure on the international side but I doubt that it's more than 2.5% of the global index. REITs are a pretty new asset class, only available i...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 01, 2014 4:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calculating REIT percentage
Replies: 2
Views: 379

Re: LED recessed lighting question

texasdiver wrote: The new LED bulbs are hugely superior.


+1

The main call is 2700k (warm yellow) vs 3000k or higher ('daylight' and to me it looks harsh).
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 01, 2014 4:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LED recessed lighting question
Replies: 13
Views: 1049

Re: Why invest in foreign funds?

The lesson I learned from that is that it is futile to invest in foreign funds for safety reasons. Also, consider that US funds are growing at a faster rate than foreign funds . Given these two facts I don't see the point in investing in foreign funds. By "growing faster" I assume you mea...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 01, 2014 4:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in foreign funds?
Replies: 34
Views: 1789

Re: Why invest in foreign funds?

I would turn the question around and ask, "Why not invest in foreign funds?" I can think of two reasons: First, if you live in the US, it is the US market you have to keep up with. If US stocks go up then US housing prices may also be buoyed up by it. In this situation if half your invest...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 01, 2014 4:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in foreign funds?
Replies: 34
Views: 1789

Re: When to invest in China?

Valuethinker, thank you for your excellent comments. Years ago, I had a friend who taught English in Nanking, China. We exchanged a lot of e-mails and I learned a lot about China from him. Someday I would like to visit and see for myself. What I have observed are the large amounts of Chinese touris...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 31, 2014 1:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to invest in China?
Replies: 43
Views: 1707

Re: When to invest in China?

... Officially, China has 1.3 billion people, the unofficial number is 1.5 billion. ... But most Chinese are not rich. So true. It's easy to find rich Chinese outside of China, as both tourists and emigres. Inside China...it's different. However, I disagree with the comments here that most wealthy ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 31, 2014 1:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to invest in China?
Replies: 43
Views: 1707

Re: Your thoughts on farmland values

The correlation between food prices and commodity prices generally is imperfect at best. In particular energy prices. I suppose this is one of virtues of owning a farm that grows corn in particular. Corn prices are somewhat tied to oil prices. Don't get me started on that -- private conversation ;-...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 31, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your thoughts on farmland values
Replies: 29
Views: 2408

Re: Your thoughts on farmland values

Some of the risks mentioned like water or weather can actually be a positive if its not a risk that your area usually experiences. It seems like a very bad time to be buying land, but an excellent time to own it. It wasn't that long ago (early 2000s) when farmers were slaughtering pigs and not even...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 31, 2014 7:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your thoughts on farmland values
Replies: 29
Views: 2408

Re: A Primer on John Templeton

I have more than a certain cynicism about 'values' in this case. I would normally share your scepticism and I am certainly not portraying Templeton as some kind of saint but he did come over as somebody with very much his own ideas, based upon largely decent values, something that is all too rare t...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 31, 2014 7:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Primer on John Templeton
Replies: 28
Views: 2060

Re: A Primer on John Templeton

That's a logical observation, but Buffetts returns were helped mightily by concentrating rather than diversifying, and having the businesses selected return more than the S&P. It wasn't just diving in at the bottoms, and extracting above market returns in private deals done out of panic. Coke, ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 31, 2014 4:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Primer on John Templeton
Replies: 28
Views: 2060

Re: Why invest in foreign funds?

Something like half of the world's economy is outside the U.S. Why would you limit your investments to half of the available options especially when some economies are growing faster than ours? Yes, diversification is often the reason foreign stocks are purchased. Actually it's more like 80% of the...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 31, 2014 4:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in foreign funds?
Replies: 34
Views: 1789

Re: A Primer on John Templeton

Bogle should be shot for being such a bad businessman. Valuethinker, your comment made me laugh out loud. Hopefully your sense of irony won't be lost on too many readers. A recent biography of Sir John is available, 'Templeton's Way with Money: Strategies and Philosophy of a Legendary Investor', wh...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 31, 2014 4:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Primer on John Templeton
Replies: 28
Views: 2060

Re: When to leave a neighborhood for greener pastures?

I'll chime in with a minority opinion here. I would ignore the issue of renters. Renters come and go. There were the wildest renters across the street from me last year (they liked to throw parties on the roof) and now that house is occupied by people who are spending the weekend tidying up the yar...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 31, 2014 3:52 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When to leave a neighborhood for greener pastures?
Replies: 46
Views: 4855

Re: A Primer on John Templeton

One of the more remarkable aspects (among many) of John Templeton's career was that, even back in the 1950s and 1960s, he was researching and buying international equities. This must have taken an inordinate amount of foresight, work and courage back in those days. What other investors in the U.S. ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 31, 2014 3:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Primer on John Templeton
Replies: 28
Views: 2060

Re: A Primer on John Templeton

John Bogle may not have profited the way John Templeton did, but he was a very good businessman. He chose not to maximize his take. Many small businessmen would be very pleased to have John Bogle's net worth as well as something that money can't buy and that is the admiration and respect from milli...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 31, 2014 3:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Primer on John Templeton
Replies: 28
Views: 2060

Re: Your thoughts on farmland values

Thanks for your thoughts Valuethinker . I think I mostly agree. One thought FWIW. Owning land and running it as a farm (planting and harvesting the crop or paying someone to do it for you) is probably a better diversifier than owning land and renting it out. The reason being that each year you get ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 31, 2014 3:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your thoughts on farmland values
Replies: 29
Views: 2408

Re: Why invest in foreign funds?

The lesson I learned from that is that it is futile to invest in foreign funds for safety reasons. Would you have said that if you were a Japanese investor in 1990? Because the Japanese market has fallen by 2/3rds since then, whereas other markets have risen. Also, consider that US funds are growin...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 31, 2014 3:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in foreign funds?
Replies: 34
Views: 1789

Re: When to invest in China?

I am investing in China but only in the proportions that my various International Funds and Index Funds have invested. I do not own a China specific fund or ETF. Yes, China can be compared to the "Asian Tigers" which rapidly industrialized and had autocratic governments that gradually dem...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 31, 2014 3:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to invest in China?
Replies: 43
Views: 1707

Re: Emerging markets 1900-2013

My foggy memory banks recall the term Emerging Markets being used only since the 1980's, so my recollection is similar to Nisiprius. I am a bit skeptical about reliable data going back to 1900 for the US Stock Market and even more skeptical about the data for Emerging Markets. Still the data compil...
by Valuethinker
Sat Aug 30, 2014 5:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets 1900-2013
Replies: 53
Views: 4713

Re: A Primer on John Templeton

John Templeton was a really smart guy. He ran high MER mutual funds (I owned one of them for a long time). He made a *lot* of money for himself, and based himself in a tax haven so he didn't have to pay much tax. Was probably close to a billionaire at his peak, if not an actual billionaire. Contrast...
by Valuethinker
Sat Aug 30, 2014 5:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Primer on John Templeton
Replies: 28
Views: 2060

Re: When to invest in China?

Another great point. If wealthy people are emigrating from China and taking their money with them, a very simple question comes up. Do these wealthy Chinese know something that we don't? Thanks 111. No. They are hedging their bets. Chinese tend to think dynastically (particularly the Cantonese Chin...
by Valuethinker
Sat Aug 30, 2014 5:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to invest in China?
Replies: 43
Views: 1707

Re: When to invest in China?

Yes, China is still a communist country. It is still one party rule. That does not make it communist. There's an awful lot of one party states out there. From my understanding, there is more freedom now than the days of Mao. Deng Xiaoping brought economic reform and introduced a form of state capit...
by Valuethinker
Sat Aug 30, 2014 5:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to invest in China?
Replies: 43
Views: 1707

Re: When to invest in China?

I would stick to the broad International Stock Funds/Indexes and Emerging Market Funds/Indexes. I would not buy a China specific fund. My belief is that China is Japan on steroids and that their market will cool off in similar fashion to Japan's. I see a lot of the same issues: overinvestment, a lo...
by Valuethinker
Sat Aug 30, 2014 3:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to invest in China?
Replies: 43
Views: 1707

Re: When to invest in China?

Why has it been so difficult to make money by buying the stocks of countries that are improving their economic position? The first explanation is of course that stock prices impound anticipated business conditions. As we showed in our 2010 paper, although past economic growth does not predict subse...
by Valuethinker
Sat Aug 30, 2014 2:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When to invest in China?
Replies: 43
Views: 1707

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

Finished Pride and Prejudice , by Jane Austen, mostly because having started it I wanted to at least finish it... this time. I "get" why some people love her stuff, but I can't honestly say I did. I'm not in a big hurry to read another. Yes, I liked it when Elizabeth lets Lady Catherine h...
by Valuethinker
Sat Aug 30, 2014 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3279
Views: 1117706

Re: Your thoughts on farmland values

I recently bought 80 acres in Indiana, and paid in total 550,000. I earn 14,000 from cash rent after property taxes and insurance I earn 9,000. So from a cash rent perspective it will take me a very long time to pay off. I have noticed as of late that very bad ground (sandy, clay) will go for 8,000...
by Valuethinker
Sat Aug 30, 2014 1:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your thoughts on farmland values
Replies: 29
Views: 2408
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