Search found 26752 matches

by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 03, 2015 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timber
Replies: 16
Views: 2010

Re: Timber

Sublime8700 : Are you thinking of a direct investment (purchase of timber real estate, either fee simple or as a limited partner)? There's one outfit that is touting "precious timber" fee simple ownership in Nicaragua. I hope this is not something you're looking at. Among other issues the...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 111
Views: 6247

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

BTW there's always lots of things to worry about ;-). ISIS. Nuclear proliferation. Natural change in the planet. These kinds of risks will pop up now and again, and you'll get stock market crashes. The London Stock Exchange bottomed as the Battle of Britain began-- it turned out to be not a bad for...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Berlin neighborhood for one week stay
Replies: 19
Views: 847

Re: Berlin neighborhood for one week stay

The apartments are disappearing one by one as I search and I am still undecided. (I think it's the heat. We are not used to it here...am rediscovery the meaning of the word torpor) As an analogy, I think what I am looking for is the area in Manhattan from the Upper West Side to Washington Heights b...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Berlin neighborhood for one week stay
Replies: 19
Views: 847

Re: Berlin neighborhood for one week stay

I cannot remember the Tube stop, but we went on an "Underground Berlin" tour and they showed us a hospital underground between 2 train stations, rigged up for a nuclear war. That was the first major terminus north of Mitte, and it wasn't a particularly nice area. But it was 2-3km north of...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Berlin neighborhood for one week stay
Replies: 19
Views: 847

Re: Berlin neighborhood for one week stay

We will be in Berlin at the end of this month for a week. We will be renting an apartment and there are many to chose from. The question is where. We are not especially young, have zero interest in clubbing, are not fashionable, hip, nor trendy and graffiti makes me weary. We like good bakeries clo...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 03, 2015 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Evaluate Proposal on Installation of Solar Panels
Replies: 11
Views: 842

Re: Evaluate Proposal on Installation of Solar Panels

But consider that on an 11,200W system, $1.20/watt for labor would be $13,440 in labor costs - IMO, quite high. It simply will not cost the installer anywhere near that . Even if you assume 3 guys working 5 days for 8 hours/day, that's 120 hours of work. $13440/120 is $112/hour for labor. You do th...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 03, 2015 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timber
Replies: 16
Views: 2010

Re: Timber

I believe the reason people are attracted to timber are that it is fairly weakly correlated with traditional stocks and bonds and even a passively managed timber portfolio has returned arouund 12.5% at least according to one of swensen's books. However, the downfall are there are (at least to my kn...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alphaville blog - EM ETF challenges
Replies: 0
Views: 93

Alphaville blog - EM ETF challenges

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/09/02/2139226/synthetic-em/ There are significant risks inherent in investing in China A-Shares through Stock Connect. The underdeveloped state of PRC’s investment and banking systems subjects the settlement, clearing, and registration of securities transactions to he...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 111
Views: 6247

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

Could you describe the things that give you an edge over the market? What is your insight that is not properly valued by others? Realistically the answer to this is: nothing, I'm probably worse than the market. However, maybe the edge is logical thinking + gut decision making, and this is rare? Sou...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Berlin neighborhood for one week stay
Replies: 19
Views: 847

Re: Berlin neighborhood for one week stay

I cannot remember the Tube stop, but we went on an "Underground Berlin" tour and they showed us a hospital underground between 2 train stations, rigged up for a nuclear war. That was the first major terminus north of Mitte, and it wasn't a particularly nice area. But it was 2-3km north of ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Berlin neighborhood for one week stay
Replies: 19
Views: 847

Re: Berlin neighborhood for one week stay

I don't recall seeing graffiti around my hotel. But I was interested in the darker side and went on a walking tour of Alternative Berlin. It was good, but two weeks later it was surpassed by a walking tour of Alternative Frankfurt. The "alternative" neighborhoods of Berlin were East Kreuz...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 111
Views: 6247

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

Did you sell and go to cash or rebalance into bonds? I would submit that if you went to cash, you may have done what a lot of people do....sell low then when the market bounces up, buy back in high. If, on the other hand, you sold-to-buy in bonds, then this could be considered rebalancing and if yo...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Evaluate Proposal on Installation of Solar Panels
Replies: 11
Views: 842

Re: Evaluate Proposal on Installation of Solar Panels

WhyNotUs wrote:What other benchmarks?

Where are people getting Sunpower panels, inverter and install for less than net $1.60 watt?


I was simply looking at the other comments in the thread-- quoting significantly lower prices. I don't live in the US so any experience I have on costs is not likely to be relevant.
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 111
Views: 6247

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

BTW there's always lots of things to worry about ;-). ISIS. Nuclear proliferation. Natural change in the planet. These kinds of risks will pop up now and again, and you'll get stock market crashes. The London Stock Exchange bottomed as the Battle of Britain began-- it turned out to be not a bad fore...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 111
Views: 6247

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

Hi all, I just wanted to write out my decision for selling all my equity positions yesterday and see what people think. (I'm expecting people to think this was a *bad* decision) A little background: From 2007 until now I was 70% equities, 10% REIT, and 20% bonds. The bonds were half treasuries and ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 02, 2015 4:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."
Replies: 50
Views: 5063

Re: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."

I remember back in 2009, REITS were totally in the dumps getting dragged down by the housing bubble bust. Compared to the TSM, it was down an extra 15% (-55% versus -40%). By the end of 2014, it had rebounded 460% compared to "only" 310% for the TSM. Those who had the guts to overweight i...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 02, 2015 4:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Evaluate Proposal on Installation of Solar Panels
Replies: 11
Views: 842

Re: Evaluate Proposal on Installation of Solar Panels

G. Current Monthly Bill- $224 electric bill, projected bill with solar panels $125 For me it is as much about saving money over time as it is to not give a penny more than I have to to the Utility company. Therefore, I believe it's in my best interest, to max out my roof. For instance, the Utility ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 02, 2015 4:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."
Replies: 50
Views: 5063

Re: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."

The gap between $5k and $17k is large enough to make a significant difference. Or even $10k if you take my own lower estimate. He probably has his own practitioner based definition of what qualifies as the upper end of middle income $5K then could be $7-$8K today. I think generally the Economist is...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Berlin neighborhood for one week stay
Replies: 19
Views: 847

Re: Berlin neighborhood for one week stay

We will be in Berlin at the end of this month for a week. We will be renting an apartment and there are many to chose from. The question is where. We are not especially young, have zero interest in clubbing, are not fashionable, hip, nor trendy and graffiti makes me weary. We like good bakeries clo...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."
Replies: 50
Views: 5063

Re: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."

I would disagree with $4k-5k per capita GDP. I had heard it as $10k-15k, or "middle income". That it's very hard to break out of the middle income trap. Google tells me Mexico is about $10k per capita, and Brasil about $11k. China about $6,800. The guy wrote the book in the end of 2011 an...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 01, 2015 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to start a blog and claim the name?
Replies: 40
Views: 2868

Re: How to start a blog and claim the name?

Get the domain name ASAP. It costs just a few bucks and you don't have to actually do anything with it right away. Also, get social media names, e.g. Twitter. Again, you don't have to do anything with it right away, but you don't want the regret later that someone else took it because you postponed...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 01, 2015 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."
Replies: 50
Views: 5063

Re: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."

Generally the problems with EM economies are: - dependence on commodity exports (Brasil, Russia etc.) - China is in its own mess - a private sector debt and property bubble which is now unwinding - a mass of shadow banking which has spread exposure all over the system - some countries are current ac...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 01, 2015 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."
Replies: 50
Views: 5063

Re: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."

There is a good book on emerging markets investing called "Breakout Nations" by Ruchir Sharma http://www.amazon.com/Breakout-Nations-Pursuit-Economic-Miracles/dp/0393345408/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1441122179&sr=8-1&keywords=breakout+nations The main thesis of the book is that g...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 31, 2015 4:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Proof that this summer was hotter than last summer
Replies: 11
Views: 1092

Re: Proof that this summer was hotter than last summer

This comparison is meaningless without location information -- to an outside observer anyways.

Cooling degree day data is available somewhere on the internet, by locale. As is heating degree days (for winter).
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 30, 2015 3:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs: The one Tilt that Makes Sense?
Replies: 47
Views: 3152

Re: REITs: The one Tilt that Makes Sense?

http://www.vanguard.com/pdf/s553.pdf?2210022068 Page 8 has the key data. Of the returns of REITs 1989-2008, 7.02% came from income ie dividends and average dividend yield was 6.7% over the period. Price apprecation was only 1.72% The vast majority of your returns in these instruments comes from divi...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 30, 2015 3:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some thoughts about VWEHX (Vg High Yield Corporate)
Replies: 7
Views: 528

Re: Some thoughts about VWEHX (Vg High Yield Corporate)

I use as a rule of thumb: long-term returns = initial yield – default rate. Plugging in the numbers, you get either: R = 5.54 – 2.3 = about 3.2% (with the July default rate excluding energy/metals) or R = 5.54 – 1.1 = about 4.4% (excluding also the Caesars bankruptcy). This number is quite attracti...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 30, 2015 3:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some thoughts about VWEHX (Vg High Yield Corporate)
Replies: 7
Views: 528

Re: Some thoughts about VWEHX (Vg High Yield Corporate)

Thoughts: 1. The vg fund seems more likely to sell at a loss than allow defaults, which still represents credit risk (selling at a loss). 2. You will find two schools of thought on spread: either percentage of spread matters or absolute spread matters. Some feel that if safe bonds are at 1% then HY...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 30, 2015 3:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timber Anyone?
Replies: 11
Views: 1333

Re: Timber Anyone?

Disease and fire are very real risks. Up the Rockies, the pine bark beetle has cut a swathe of devastation. The bug is Mexican in origin, and warmer winters mean the winter no longer kills it off-- it starts each new season that bit further ahead. Interior British Columbia has been devastated, and I...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 30, 2015 3:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recessed/Pendant Lights: Where to Place for this Kitchen
Replies: 9
Views: 701

Re: Recessed/Pendant Lights: Where to Place for this Kitchen

Is it worth an additional $37.50 per bulb to put in LED now instead of BR230 incandescent? Or should we wait till the current bulbs die out, then replace with LED later (since the technology will be better/cheaper)? We currently have 4 fluorescent tubes (which yields around 3000 lumens each). Isn't...
by Valuethinker
Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2002
Views: 383128

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

OMG; the market is in stability!! I don't know what to do. This is a "black swan" that no one could have predicted. :confused OMG - Major oil company equities are up 10%+ in two days, guess they didn't get the newsflash about the impending collapse of oil prices (those are up 10% in a day...
by Valuethinker
Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8054

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

A way of summarising this would be "in crises, correlations go to 1.0". You want to be a little careful with that statement. Correlation does not equal causation - you know the drill. This too is a true statement: "In crisis, markets move in independent directions, correlations go to...
by Valuethinker
Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me think through the effect of foreign currency on stocks
Replies: 3
Views: 213

Re: Help me think through the effect of foreign currency on stocks

First off, can someone recommend some good books / articles dealing with the effect that holding stocks denominated in different currencies have on their long-term return? I know Mr. Bogle says that it should be a wash in the long-run (the type of currency has no effect). What I don't really unders...
by Valuethinker
Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sigh, what's the point of knowing investing theory?
Replies: 20
Views: 1596

Re: Sigh, what's the point of knowing investing theory?

Sto You say, "Oh, well, you're in school, you'll have money after that." Maybe. I'm studying Computer Science, and I'm on pace to graduate Cum Laude, but I feel like I'm pretty much the worst programmer in my classes. I have no idea what I'm doing. I just invest far more time in it than t...
by Valuethinker
Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time to upgrade my HVAC?
Replies: 22
Views: 2289

Re: Time to upgrade my HVAC?

a/c cycling every 10 min. makes me wonder about the effectiveness/energy efficiency of your windows and insulation..in the winter does your furnace cycle that often also? yes, also 10min on/off for heat in the winter. read that it takes about 10-15years for ROI on new windows. never thought about i...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8054

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

Does anyone understand the cause of this week's crash and why international moved pretty much lock-step with domestic providing no diversification benefit? Is this just driven by institutional investors moving large sums of money into both funds at the same time, thus moving their prices at the sam...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8054

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

Benjamin Graham said that in the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine. Note that prices are NOT set by people's estimate of current value, but by their expectations of FUTURE value. Those expectations are a lot more volatile than the underlyi...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8054

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

The China market tanked. The rest of the world got worried. Simple as that. Or as the old saying goes: " The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent " And Andrei Schlifer wrote a neat paper saying that in academic economic speak "the limits to arbitrage". It'...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8054

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

The China market tanked. The rest of the world got worried. Simple as that. Or as the old saying goes: " The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent " And Andrei Schlifer wrote a neat paper saying that in academic economic speak "the limits to arbitrage". It'...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8054

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

The basic diversification for me this week was that I lost money on every continent (except perhaps Antarctica) rather than just losing money in North America. But did you really lose anything? Assuming you didn't sell - if your in it for the long haul this is just a blip... The way I look at it is...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8054

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

Stock price is supposed to track fundamental earnings. Where did you come up with that one? Short term movements in the stock market are rarely, if ever, rooted in fundamentals. The China market tanked. The rest of the world got worried. Simple as that. Short term movements are about speculation-- ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8054

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

The real reason I made this topic was because I don't understand how domestic and internal stocks could both experience a 7% decline in one week. Stock price is supposed to track fundamental earnings. How can the fundamental earnings of two massive regions both fall at the exact same time? It sound...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8054

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

I care about short run results for rebalancing. If there's a flash crash in one asset I want to be able to sell my other assets to rebalance into it and restore my AA and get better returns by buying low and selling high. But when all assets fall at the same time, no rebalancing bonus can be gained...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirement with a pension
Replies: 38
Views: 4490

Re: Early retirement with a pension

In my police job I originally worked rotating 8 hours shifts on one month rotations. Then we went to fixed shifts for about 6 years and I got days based on seniority. About 2.5 years ago we went to rotating 12 hours shifts with one month rotations. About a month ago it was decided that we were goin...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young UK-based investor looking for help with initial asset allocation
Replies: 14
Views: 822

Re: Young UK-based investor looking for help with initial asset allocation

I want to keep my investments as simple as possible, and I think I have a high tolerance for risk. I may want to use some of the ISA as a down payment on buying a house in around 10 years' time, but I don't know if, or how, that should affect my asset allocation. I trust the wisdom that 80% of my p...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young UK-based investor looking for help with initial asset allocation
Replies: 14
Views: 822

Re: Young UK-based investor looking for help with initial asset allocation

80% global equities (or 70/10 if you have to segregate out the UK part) 20% UK gilts (I note you have picked Indexed Linked. That in theory is your most diversifying asset. However I believe that Index Linked Gilts are overvalued, and so I would go for straight gilts at this point) My rationale is ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got a great entry level full time offer (70K + 10K signing bonus), not sure if I should accept or decline
Replies: 35
Views: 4394

Re: Got a great entry level full time offer (70K + 10K signing bonus), not sure if I should accept or decline

Lol, this is the first time hearing from anywhere, actually, that IB is not a good career path. Ahhh... I could tell you stories, culled from my friends and acquaintances. Business school is full of people, ex IB analysts, saying they never, ever, want to work for an Investment Bank again . The fin...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got a great entry level full time offer (70K + 10K signing bonus), not sure if I should accept or decline
Replies: 35
Views: 4394

Re: Got a great entry level full time offer (70K + 10K signing bonus), not sure if I should accept or decline

Hi guys, I'm currently in a bit of a dilemma about what to do for a job offer I recently recieved and I'm hoping to get some thoughts and feedback to help me come to a conclusion. To start off, some information about my full time offer: entry level analyst role in finance at a major bank, 70K + 10K...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 26, 2015 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young UK-based investor looking for help with initial asset allocation
Replies: 14
Views: 822

Re: Young UK-based investor looking for help with initial asset allocation

Hi, I'm a 23 year old student with a sum of money that I inherited while young which was invested for me. I'm now trying to understand finance and investing so I can take matters in to my own hands. I'm also about to start a four-year PhD programme funded via a tax-free stipend, so I'll be able to ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it my imagination?
Replies: 14
Views: 1660

Re: Is it my imagination?

Is it my imagination or is the media more calm and even putting a positive spin on this market downfall. I'm seeing more rational discussion and advice around the downturn than I would have expected. Maybe we have learned something over the last five years or maybe "crying wolf" isn't as ...

Go to advanced search