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Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

[quote="HardKnocker"][/quote]

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=91646&start=3050#p2125309

is my take on the book.
by Valuethinker
Thu Jul 24, 2014 1:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3101
Views: 997259

Re: Individual MBS & UITs in taxable account

I have no idea how to even find out where I am in the SPV capital structure or technically even what a SPV is :D . Special Purpose Vehicle. Fancy lawyer speak. Basically the SPV is the entity which buys the mortgages from the originator bank and at the same time issues the bonds to investors. If it...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 11:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual MBS & UITs in taxable account
Replies: 16
Views: 507

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

Renewable energy means big demands for grid infrastructure. Wind farms and solar farms tend to be in remote areas and they have to be hooked up to the grid, a major constraint. In the UK you add offshore wind. The future of power transmission is in long distance and international High Voltage DC li...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 87
Views: 4673

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

For instance the UK makes up 15% of total Euro GDP (UK 3% of global GDP) and in 2017 there may be a OUT of EU referendum in the UK - perhaps to converge/combine more with the 21% 'others' (Canada 2.5%, Australia 2% ...etc).. Just on this - the UK is not in the Euro so it pulling out of the EU does ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 10:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 87
Views: 4673

Re: Individual MBS & UITs in taxable account

Maybe here's a better way to frame the opportunity cost point. If I did not own this security now, given the risks, would I buy it? If the answer is no, then you should be a seller. The only question is when and what it will cost you to sell. On the sub investment grade one, a sale is what you want,...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 10:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual MBS & UITs in taxable account
Replies: 16
Views: 507

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

But at the moment, there is this shift (I don't know how big) towards settling in gold. gold Renminbisation BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) is 35% of world trade (global GDP), 42% of the global population, yet have a relatively (disproportionately) small international (financial) voice (11% of ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 87
Views: 4673

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

I am normally a big sceptic on gold BUT recent actions by the US to freeze bank accounts (eg connected to Iran) have meant more countries are using gold as a means of settlement (you can't freeze gold). That means there is a demand shift in favour of gold. I just don't know how big this could get, ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 87
Views: 4673

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

I am normally a big sceptic on gold BUT recent actions by the US to freeze bank accounts (eg connected to Iran) have meant more countries are using gold as a means of settlement (you can't freeze gold). That means there is a demand shift in favour of gold. I just don't know how big this could get, ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 9:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 87
Views: 4673

Re: If Argentina Defaults

Also, despite all the jokes about lawyers and litigation in the U.S., U.S. courts are respected, and U.S. property rights are strong and desired (hence why many foreigners purchase property in the United States, the constitutional guarantee against government takings without due process is paramoun...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Argentina Defaults
Replies: 21
Views: 1893

Re: If Argentina Defaults

Do you really understand the Argentine economy. With all due respect and love for the Argentine people, the business community and government is one big Mafia-like environment. How do I know? I spent several years including >50% 1999-2001 living and working in Buenos Aires. My Porteno friends say i...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Argentina Defaults
Replies: 21
Views: 1893

Re: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets

The US is in a global capital market with few barriers to flows. And the USD is the numeraire and settlement currency of the world, so there is lower exchange rate risk for investors from abroad in any case (their liabilities and imports are also denominated in USD to an extent, as well as their ass...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets
Replies: 43
Views: 4395

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

There's lack of faith in any one single primary reserve currency. The tendency is more towards a one-world fiat paper standard (a new currency unit) issued by a World Reserve Bank - "the bancor", "unita", "phoenix", rather than a return to the finite reserves gold stan...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 87
Views: 4673

Re: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets

Isn't the idea to basically have enought to live off the interest . Why are they so worried everyone will run to the bank and liquidate . In Japan long term government bonds pay less than 1%. Possibly below inflation (depending on whether the plan to create inflation succeeds). You need an *awful* ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 7:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets
Replies: 43
Views: 4395

Re: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets

I have bigger concerns about what baby boomers will do to the medicare/social-security systems, especially if the current job and wage growth is a new norm... but if jobs and wages start heating up I imagine inflation won't be to far behind... seems there's always something to worry about. The US i...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 6:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets
Replies: 43
Views: 4395

Re: Individual MBS & UITs in taxable account

Thank you. :beer The S&P equivalent is a BB+ which is below investment grade. I was leaning towards selling the GMAC already, this just pushes me farther towards that action. I have another one that is in an inherited IRA that is BBB as well. Now I just need to figure out how to do it at Vangua...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 6:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual MBS & UITs in taxable account
Replies: 16
Views: 507

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

Just started Raising Steam the latest Discworld novel by Terry Pratchett and under the circumstances who knows how many more there will be. He is slipping fast. It will depend on his co-writers. The UK lost JG Ballard (a science fiction writer so valued by the literary world that his obituaries wer...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3101
Views: 997259

Re: Help With Investment Options [Pension, retirement plans]

I hope I posted this in the right forum. Here goes. I have recently been contacted by my previous employer, and they are giving me an option to take the pension I had with them in a lump sum. It is around $21,000. This is a one time deal with no penalties. I also have a 401k with this same previous...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help With Investment Options [Pension, retirement plans]
Replies: 2
Views: 313

Re: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index

IGovernment officials and regulators have been very specific that next time, corporate bond holders would share 'more of the pain' in any rescue operation. Everyone has seen what Ireland did (guaranteeing the bonds issued by the banks-- see Michael Lewis, Boomerang ) and that it put a huge burden o...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index
Replies: 75
Views: 6069

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

I am normally a big sceptic on gold BUT recent actions by the US to freeze bank accounts (eg connected to Iran) have meant more countries are using gold as a means of settlement (you can't freeze gold). That means there is a demand shift in favour of gold. I just don't know how big this could get, b...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 87
Views: 4673

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

Some fun facts about gold. Current estimates are that approximately 171,000 tones of gold have been mined by humans in all of history. If all of that gold was melted down into a single bar it would form a cube about 20 meters on a side (67 ft) which is about the size of an average McMansion. By con...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 87
Views: 4673

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

It might be possible to have a serious discussion, but a discussion that starts with trains leaving the station isn't serious. My father has studied the energy field for years. In part because of the need for renewal* of the electric power grid in the US, he had invested in various copper mining st...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 87
Views: 4673

Re: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets

Basically the US population is still growing and will keep doing so well into the 21st Century. That's key. The US will still need new housing (albeit more of it, likely, in city centres and less in suburbs*). There are going to be 450 million Americans c. 2050. A lower rate of growth, but still gro...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets
Replies: 43
Views: 4395

Re: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets

International investors will quickly shore up any inefficiencies in the market caused by a mass sale of assets by baby boomers. We already see this in CA and NY and even Chicago real-estate markets where desirable properties are being snapped up by cash buyers from overseas. People (foreign or dome...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets
Replies: 43
Views: 4395

Re: Individual MBS & UITs in taxable account

If you want to sell the UIT just call Vanguard. I moved a UIT over a couple months back and had to call them to sell (it was $35 as you state in your OP). If I remember correctly they told me there was no way for me to do it online. Right now I am leaning towards keeping the UITs. They are such a s...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual MBS & UITs in taxable account
Replies: 16
Views: 507

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

That war being amongst the most fruitless of a fruitless conflict. The Italians were bribed to go to war by being offered the Tirol by France and England. The parliament wasn't even allowed to vote on it. The war turned into a nightmare of bloody battles in Tirolia and Slovenia/ Trieste area, with ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3101
Views: 997259

Re: If Argentina Defaults

Would it be a good time to buy Argentine stocks, for example in the ETF ARGT? Would it be a good time to convert some dollars into Argentine pesos, if the currency loses value, with the hope that in the next few years it will regain some value? For example, see this article: http://www.businessinsi...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If Argentina Defaults
Replies: 21
Views: 1893

Re: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index

Munir I have a couple of concerns here: 1. not all dips are temporary. If we think of inflation and bonds in the period about 1955-1980, this was anything but 'temporary'. Similarly there are plenty of records (especially including international markets) of multi year bear markets in equities. Eg 19...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index
Replies: 75
Views: 6069

Re: Bond funds- your percentage of intermediate vs. short-te

Nisiprius I think part of the problem is the returns on cash have fallen so much. They are now negative in real terms before tax! I agree that has led to an increase in our risk profiles, against which we are often unwitting (grammar). If we had a rerun of the 1930s of course we would all go back to...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds- your percentage of intermediate vs. short-term?
Replies: 12
Views: 1109

Re: Anyone attend Worcester Polytechnic Institute

I know I wouldn't hire a fresh grad whose major was Engineering Management. What is she going to manage? I'd rather hire a mechanical engineer and send him/her to get their masters in engineering management once they prove their worth. The only thing I can say to that is that great leaders are born...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 22, 2014 7:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone attend Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Replies: 44
Views: 2072

Re: Lost a lot in stocks and starting fresh: Please Help

Hi Everyone, I am new to this forum. I have been reading a lot of posts recently and decided to post my financial situation. I have lost quite a bit stocks and options in the last 5 years (Yes all those years When the markets literally went up by 150%). I want to start from scratch, Please offer su...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lost a lot in stocks and starting fresh: Please Help
Replies: 90
Views: 11890

Re: What if the market doesn't recover for a long period?

It's great that OP understands that stock holders risk their principal even if they intend to hold for "the long term". Here is a relevant Paper from UC Irvine: The Long Term Risks of Global Stock Markets Thank you very much for that! Note the conclusion suggests global diversification wo...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if the market doesn't recover for a long period?
Replies: 40
Views: 5606

Re: Bond funds- your percentage of intermediate vs. short-te

Hello, Are there any recommendations for the percentage of intermediate-term-bond funds vs short-term-bond funds? For instance, if one is 30/70 stock/bond, is there any guidance as to the percentage that should be in intermediate-term-bond funds vs short-term-bond funds? I'm curious because it appe...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds- your percentage of intermediate vs. short-term?
Replies: 12
Views: 1109

Re: Saudi to Open Up $531 Billion Stock Market to Foreigners

Historically it has been a real roller coaster. Gambling is illegal in Saudi Arabia, one of the world's most conservative countries (AFAIK). So 'outlets' like the stock market serve the same purpose. Very sentiment driven. The majority of the economy is, AFAIK, still oil revenues-- the government st...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Saudi to Open Up $531 Billion Stock Market to Foreigners
Replies: 1
Views: 615

Re: Anyone attend Worcester Polytechnic Institute

I know I wouldn't hire a fresh grad whose major was Engineering Management. What is she going to manage? I'd rather hire a mechanical engineer and send him/her to get their masters in engineering management once they prove their worth. You find here, at least in the UK, that many of them go straigh...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jul 22, 2014 5:52 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone attend Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Replies: 44
Views: 2072

Re: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index

Munir - we'd have to do the research on the fund reports. As I cannot invest in this fund, I don't have the time to do this - you'll be fine in an intermediate term IG fund *unless* it hits the fan re the financial system again We are arguing really half a per cent here and there, plus or minus, for...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jul 21, 2014 12:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding Corporates to Total Bond Market Index
Replies: 75
Views: 6069

Re: Help with Title/Author of Science Fiction Novel

Le Carre is one of my favorites, and the fact I haven't read all of his work is one of the reasons I am not going to read any more Stross for a while at least. Along this path are Graham Greene's 'entertainments'. My wife told me once that she thought he was the greatest living practitioner of the ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jul 21, 2014 12:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help with Title/Author of Science Fiction Novel
Replies: 28
Views: 1876

Re: Repair car vs. buy new vs. lease -- EV or not?

Options: 1: Fix/keep old car, cost ~$7500 for three years, assuming no more repairs 2: Get a new leaf, and plan to sell in 3 years: cost ~$7500 3: Lease an EV, cost ~$1,500 over the three years 4: Get a new ICE car: cost ??? What would you do? Note this car is *utility* so basically you want a car ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jul 21, 2014 11:00 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Repair car vs. buy new vs. lease -- EV or not?
Replies: 16
Views: 1406

Re: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by invest

Thanks for the post VT! A couple more to add: * Investing in financial instruments that one does not understand. * Overestimating one's tolerance for risk. * When retired, failing to account for "sequence of returns" risk. JT Good. I would say *most* of us probably don't understand all ou...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by investing
Replies: 81
Views: 9162

Re: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by invest

A couple of 'investments' that I had friends that lost significant money (they were bankers or lawyers or doctors, doctors seem to fall for these things): - owning a restaurant (unless you really trust the entrepreneur and even then) or worse a nightclub (people do that so they can take their friend...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by investing
Replies: 81
Views: 9162

Re: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by invest

anything on legs. cattle ranching: How do you make a small fortune in ranching? Start with a large fortune. Horse breeding: ROFL eggs on legs. No fooling. Too many doctors and some lawyers all have bought into investments on legs and lost plenty. ron bennington - radio show host i'm a huge fan of h...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by investing
Replies: 81
Views: 9162

Re: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by invest

- failing to buy a house when you can afford it and you are a long term holder (this is more controversial, but it was only accident I bought a flat in the mid 1990s in London, and that flat would now be worth 5x what I paid for it) Doesn't the Shiller data show the long run appreciation in housing...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by investing
Replies: 81
Views: 9162

Re: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by invest

1) Marrying the wrong person. 2) Using the fantasy word "home equity". A house is an asset, a mortgage is a loan. The buy rent decision on houses, cars seond homes is always complicated but the loan has nothing to do with the case. I don't think 'home equity' is a fantasy. The *value* of ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by investing
Replies: 81
Views: 9162

Re: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by invest

hoops777 wrote:Ego and thinking you are smarter than the market or listening to someone who thinks he is smarter than the market.


Yes
by Valuethinker
Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by investing
Replies: 81
Views: 9162

Re: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by invest

3. As was stated, this kind of thinking may seem justified by personal experience but is not sound. Even if one knew in advance that their local housing market would be hot, they could still come out further ahead, strictly as an investor, by buying eg. 2*$250k houses and renting one out rather tha...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by investing
Replies: 81
Views: 9162

Re: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by invest

- investing in private companies or private real estate where you are not directly involved in the management of the business or asset Can you please elaborate on the issues with private real estate? Seems to me like illiquidity and leverage can be big issues. Also, the managers' interests may not ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by investing
Replies: 81
Views: 9162

Re: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by invest

investing decisions made for primarily tax related reasons I've heard people say "Don't let the tax tail wag the dog," but are there examples of doing/not-doing something purely for tax reasons? Perhaps something like never rebalancing if you only had taxable investments? No I invested in...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by investing
Replies: 81
Views: 9162

Re: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by invest

- failing to buy a house when you can afford it and you are a long term holder (this is more controversial, but it was only accident I bought a flat in the mid 1990s in London, and that flat would now be worth 5x what I paid for it) Doesn't the Shiller data show the long run appreciation in housing...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by investing
Replies: 81
Views: 9162

Re: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by invest

1. Not understanding who you are to begin with. As has been pointed out by many a writer, the markets can be an expensive place to find out who you really are. 2. Underestimating the value of compounding, even when rates seem "low." 3. Ditto for underestimating the value of reinvesting. 4...
by Valuethinker
Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by investing
Replies: 81
Views: 9162
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