Search found 24926 matches

Return to advanced search

Re: Speculaition on Crude Oil/The Euro/and Silver

I have a hot tip. Phosphate. Yes my friends, something like 80% of the world's supply comes from one only partly stable country- Morocco. We used to get it from bird dung. Did I mention the mines are in the disputed Spanish Sahara? Where there has been a guerilla war about it since the early 1980s? ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 30, 2014 12:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Speculaition on Crude Oil/The Euro/and Silver
Replies: 15
Views: 911

Re: Should I buy more REITs?

Swensen took a year off work to deal with cancer. I don't know his status. Hi Valuethinker, My understanding is David Swensen has returned to Yale University a while ago and is fully engaged with the endowment. I was recently reading the endowment press releases regarding the investment strategy an...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 30, 2014 12:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I buy more REITs?
Replies: 40
Views: 3734

Re: Should I buy more REITs?

To answer some of the questions: - I do not have an IPS - I do not own real estate apart from the stock market - I do not have any bonds - For last year's contribution, I bought more REITs Here is my dilemma: VNQ is currently the only fund that I have in my tax-deferred account. Ever since beginnin...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I buy more REITs?
Replies: 40
Views: 3734

Re: Should I buy more REITs?

David Swensen, Yale University CIO, and author of the excellent book "Unconventional Success" has recommended a 20% of total portfolio allocation to REITs. I would be curious of Dr. Swensen's recent thoughts in terms of International REITs. Best. Swensen took a year off work to deal with ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I buy more REITs?
Replies: 40
Views: 3734

Re: Possible Relocation to San Francisco - Advice?

Every part of the US will have its own natural disaster to refer to but if I were to bet I would side with those that say that in our lifetime SF has a higher than average chance of being made unlivable for a significant period of time due to the San Andreas fault (and others) transecting the weste...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Possible Relocation to San Francisco - Advice?
Replies: 23
Views: 1525

Re: Speculaition on Crude Oil/The Euro/and Silver

In which we catch the falling knife... We were in the Spyderco knife store in Golden, CO in June when my friend dropped an open knife he was looking at. (It was the Native model). On instinct he reached down and caught it. He then bought the knife that still his own blood on it. He said it would be...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Speculaition on Crude Oil/The Euro/and Silver
Replies: 15
Views: 911

Re: Speculaition on Crude Oil/The Euro/and Silver

In which we catch the falling knife...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 30, 2014 5:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Speculaition on Crude Oil/The Euro/and Silver
Replies: 15
Views: 911

Re: Most financially economical choice for a car

I have always bought a brand new compact car and kept it for 10 years. 1. Car reliability has improved-- a lot. But complexity has increased as well, so costly repairs when key components come to the end of their lives. 2. Compact cars probably are the best tradeoff. 3. Therefore there are always '...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 29, 2014 7:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Most financially economical choice for a car
Replies: 50
Views: 3759

Re: New appliances - Stainless Steel or not?

A very good point raised here.

If OP has kids, stainless steel is *not* a good idea.

There's no reason to give oneself another reason to be annoyed at kids for being kids, teenagers for being teenagers-- they are annoying enough as it is ;-).
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 29, 2014 7:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New appliances - Stainless Steel or not?
Replies: 54
Views: 2613

Re: pick up double major or finish college in 3 years?

:D Of course, but it does do wonders for the income of defense malpractice lawyers and physician financial advisers :D DW is a retired physician I've taught health care risk management (AKA avoiding malpractice)to physicians. On average the docs come out of medical school as narrow minded medical t...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 29, 2014 12:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: pick up double major or finish college in 3 years?
Replies: 112
Views: 5613

Re: Most financially economical choice for a car

I have always bought a brand new compact car and kept it for 10 years. My last purchase was in 2009 and for the first time I bought a subcompact. I could care less about cars and as long as they get me to point A to point B I'm happy. I bought the most inexpensive car in America which at the time w...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 29, 2014 9:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Most financially economical choice for a car
Replies: 50
Views: 3759

Re: New appliances - Stainless Steel or not?

I suspect that a decade or two from now, stainless steel appliances will be viewed equivalent to the way we today view appliances in harvest gold &/or avocado green. +1 It will date your kitchen to the 1995 (ultra trendy) - 2014 (suburban household) period perfectly. Just like avocado does now....
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New appliances - Stainless Steel or not?
Replies: 54
Views: 2613

Re: New appliances - Stainless Steel or not?

We're getting ready to buy new appliances for our home and though my wife wants all SS appliances in the kitchen... If she wants it for fashion, she should note that the stainless steel look is headed out and white is coming in. White also has the advantage of being the classic color for kitchen ap...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:24 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New appliances - Stainless Steel or not?
Replies: 54
Views: 2613

Re: Money saved by buying a hybrid or electric car?

For example, if it at work for 7-8 hours charging from a wall outlet, you will get more than enough charge from a wall socket to get you home. The added benefit is that their are probably billions of "charging stations" when you think of the number of standard outlets available to you. Oh...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:16 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Money saved by buying a hybrid or electric car?
Replies: 20
Views: 1325

Re: Money saved by buying a hybrid or electric car?

For example, if it at work for 7-8 hours charging from a wall outlet, you will get more than enough charge from a wall socket to get you home. The added benefit is that their are probably billions of "charging stations" when you think of the number of standard outlets available to you. Oh...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:14 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Money saved by buying a hybrid or electric car?
Replies: 20
Views: 1325

Re: [Any difference between Treasury Note and Treasury N/B]

I would assume the phrase "Treasury N/B" is simply short-hand for "Treasury Note or Bond". As far as I know there is no difference between them except for their original term. T-Notes are issued with maturities of 2 - 10 years, while T-Bonds are issued with maturities of more th...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Any difference between Treasury Note and Treasury N/B]
Replies: 2
Views: 293

Re: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?

Not all, probably not most, assets are carried at the lower of cost or market. As Valuethinker writes, some assets are held at depreciated (or amortised) cost, which may or may not bear any relation to market (or economic) value. Further, how to value many assets on a company's books is subject to ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?
Replies: 25
Views: 2040

Re: Most financially economical choice for a car

I would buy a Corolla, not a Prius just for the unproven environmental advantages. Maybe it damages the environment more to produce and recycle the batteries. I will plant a few trees in my backyard if that helps reduce the waste gas from a Corolla. Best estimates are that c. 12% of the environment...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Most financially economical choice for a car
Replies: 50
Views: 3759

Re: Most financially economical choice for a car

On your second assertion you are way, way out. There's plenty of empirical evidence here. A new battery pack for a Prius does not cost $20k or anything like. The Prius ecosystem is well established. I think your issues are red herrings-- they have been addressed in many threads here by Prius owners...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Most financially economical choice for a car
Replies: 50
Views: 3759

Re: If holding cash, do you want a Great Depression?

The plays of Arthur Miller are often about the Great Depression. His father ran a business in the rag trade. When the Bank of the United States went bust, Wall Street would not bail it out. The Bank was a heavy banker to Jewish-owned firms in the textile business. You would be right to think there w...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 28, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If holding cash, do you want a Great Depression?
Replies: 50
Views: 3915

Re: If holding cash, do you want a Great Depression?

Why would you wish so much hardship and misery on so many people so you could make personal gain? That seems so selfish and inconsiderate of others. Do you want to accumulate wealth that bad? OP assumes the institutions and democracy of the United States will remain intact, and eventually the stock...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 28, 2014 8:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If holding cash, do you want a Great Depression?
Replies: 50
Views: 3915

Re: Choosing between Pension or Matched funds for retirement

The pension is almost always preferrable but I understand your reservations about keeping the job long enough etc. I would use 6-7% for my portfolio return. Bonds right now will return 2.5% (long term Yield to Maturity US 10 year Treasury bond). Stocks? between 5.5% (Equity risk premium of 3%) and 6...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Choosing between Pension or Matched funds for retirement
Replies: 4
Views: 549

Re: Most financially economical choice for a car

it could, of course, go back up again. Right now, down is more likely. A decent chance oil will hit $80/ bl. If the Prius is a car that otherwise suits your needs, then going for it and having the fuel economy as a hedge is a decent option. I'm not too fond of these alternative hybrid/electric cars...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Most financially economical choice for a car
Replies: 50
Views: 3759

Re: Most financially economical choice for a car

If you believe google results, people are able to buy a Prius for $19k. I wonder how much they save on gas over the years compared to a conventional car. I looked it up: https://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/05/business/energy-environment/for-hybrid-and-electric-cars-to-pay-off-owners-must-wait.html &quo...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Most financially economical choice for a car
Replies: 50
Views: 3759

Re: Most financially economical choice for a car

I'm on a market for a new car, and would like to solicit opinions of what the most economical long-term option is. I'm not very specific about the car I need. An intermediate-sized car, reasonably good gas mileage, and I'm good. Will drive the car until it breaks, or when repair costs exceed replac...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:17 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Most financially economical choice for a car
Replies: 50
Views: 3759

Re: Fed Quantitative Easing

It's interesting that with all the cash that was printed, no inflation occurred. Yet when Nixon did it back in the seventies on a much lower scale, it caused inflation and with that, Carter lost the elections (funny how politics work). Just in terms of macroeconomic models, an increase in money sup...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Quantitative Easing
Replies: 15
Views: 1181

Re: Fed Quantitative Easing

It's interesting that with all the cash that was printed, no inflation occurred. Yet when Nixon did it back in the seventies on a much lower scale, it caused inflation and with that, Carter lost the elections (funny how politics work). You are compressing a decade and that makes the analysis unclea...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed Quantitative Easing
Replies: 15
Views: 1181

Re: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?

Doesn't Vanguard just divide the S&P 500 in half by P/E and call the low P/E companies the S&P 500 Value Fund/ETF and the high P/E companies the S&P 500 Growth Fund/ETF? No, they don't do that at all. The S&P 500 has nothing to do with their core investor value/growth funds (they do...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?
Replies: 25
Views: 2040

Re: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?

FWIW DFA is 'clever value'. They buy stocks on value characteristics which have historically outperformed (as befits U of Chicago grads) BUT they also practice clever dealing to minimize dealing costs (eg their 'sin list' of brokers who have dumped them in it, who thereby lose future commission) and...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?
Replies: 25
Views: 2040

Re: Getting Started in a Career in Finance

This was all during a time of my life where i still believed the falsity that science/math jobs are isolating and non-social . Another falsity you should disabuse yourself of is that finance is a path to riches. Even after you jump through all the hoops set up to get a job, the probability of a pro...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting Started in a Career in Finance
Replies: 8
Views: 1443

Re: If holding cash, do you want a Great Depression?

Hmmm... I guess so in a very not so good way for society. I mean, the great recession was bad and I can't fathom a depression (or the pain that would go with it). I routinely saw patients in northern Indiana in 2008 and 2009 that had no insurance, lost their jobs, had very little savings and ended ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If holding cash, do you want a Great Depression?
Replies: 50
Views: 3915

Re: Pension Early Buyout Offer

It's generally better to take the pension. 65 might not be the right date, depends on the rest of your financial plans/ life expectancy.

Does the pension have a survivor benefit? If so, that is very valuable, generally.
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension Early Buyout Offer
Replies: 20
Views: 1804

Re: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?

Thx for the replies everyone. One last question : do the studies indicate that buying and holding a basket of under valued equities have out performed or do the indicate that buying an index find which constantly buys/sells equities as they move between the style boxes, to maintain a valued tilt, h...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?
Replies: 25
Views: 2040

Re: Getting Started in a Career in Finance

My main interests are mergers and acquisitions, trading stock, and analyzing companies and current events to predict financial winners (and losers). My 2 questions are: 1. Can you recommend careers in the finance industry that involve those interests? 2. Can you recommend any websites, online cours...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:37 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting Started in a Career in Finance
Replies: 8
Views: 1443

Re: Career Advice for an Unhappy Young Doctor?

Hating medicine doesn't necessarily mean that she's depressed or burnt out. 50% of the multiple dozen doctors I interact with regularly are not all that pleased with medicine either, and most are 5 to 20 years out of training, and many are quietly living way below their means and squirreling away m...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:56 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Advice for an Unhappy Young Doctor?
Replies: 76
Views: 6854

Re: Career Advice for an Unhappy Young Doctor?

Important point from economics: - sunk cost fallacy. Whatever is past in time, effort, expectations is past-- what she does with her future is her own issue. None of us can have the past back - however loans are a real issue because repaying them advances 'freedom day'. Repaying her loans has to be ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:55 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Advice for an Unhappy Young Doctor?
Replies: 76
Views: 6854

Re: Career Advice for an Unhappy Young Doctor?

1. make sure this isn't just burnout from overwork. Potential for a long holiday or sabbatical. 2. see if there is a medical field where she can enjoy herself more. Are there purely salaried medical positions, where you work manager hours (say 50 hours/ week)? Federal government? 3. start to conside...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:52 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Advice for an Unhappy Young Doctor?
Replies: 76
Views: 6854

Re: Career Advice for an Unhappy Young Doctor?

Roles that would capitalize on her medical training: - consultant eg healthcare at McKinsey etc. The pace of work is very high-- they sweat their consultants to make the partners profit share. You work with amazing people and the projects are constantly changing and (often) interesting. There is a h...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Advice for an Unhappy Young Doctor?
Replies: 76
Views: 6854

Re: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?

If a business is loss making you generally try to flog it at a minimum of Net Asset Value (which is always shrinking in that case). If you're an active investor or responsible manager. Years ago there were some dotcoms trading for less than net cash, but bleeding fast. I believe management had litt...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 27, 2014 7:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1963

Re: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?

Interesting - I was curious about VGPMX's value metrics. Vg quotes p/e as (negative) -126.7x as of 09/30/14. While M* quotes p/e 21.0x (this is prospective earnings, so not quite comparing apples to apples) as 06/30/14. Either way the corporate earnings held in this fund are distressed for the time...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?
Replies: 62
Views: 8000

Re: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?

Speculative reply - A graph of VGPMX performance reveals it moves in tandem with Caterpillar, the large mining equipment manufacturer. Caterpillar crushed 3rd quarter earnings at $1.72 EPS versus estimates of $1.36 and raised its full year outlook. This may represent a turnaround for the industry. ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?
Replies: 62
Views: 8000

Re: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?

How much of that spectacular early 2000s performance can be traced back to a few stocks like "Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) 5%" that happened to do exceptionally well then but never recovered after the recession? I don't see why we would expect the same thing to happen again. That one s...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?
Replies: 62
Views: 8000

Re: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?

How did this fund manage to own Potash Corp of Saskatchewan? Yes, that has been the mining superstory of the 2000s. But more recently not as fertilizer prices have come back down to more normal levels. But it's hardly a 'gold mining or precious metal' company? There is nothing about Potash that mak...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?
Replies: 62
Views: 8000

Re: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?

I would add to this discussion that when you get a stock selling below its net assets (Assets - Liabilities on the balance sheet) then you are pretty close to intrinsic value. The company is either close to going bust OR its assets are massively overstated in some way (as for example the banks post ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1963

Re: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?

Re Book Value Book Value = (Assets - Liabilities) / number of shares in issue What I call Net Asset Value per share (I think the Book number is US GAAP usage, in IFRS/ UK GAAP it is called Net Asset Value). That's important. A lot of high book to market (low price to book) shares are heavily indebte...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who says a stock is either "value" or "growth"?
Replies: 25
Views: 2040

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

Math has a small part in stock picking. It's useful in looking at stock history and current value but a very poor indicator of the future. Let's take the recent example of Tesco. WB owned a fairly large position. Anyone think he just closed his eyes and picked the stock? Or do you think he and his ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 26, 2014 11:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 128
Views: 9083

Re: Lump Sum vs Pension

I'm 62 and my wife is 54 and I'm currently receiving a pension of about $20k per year. I had to take the pension in 2007 to keep my insurance when I was laid off from my job at a Fortune 100 company. The pension is not inflation adjusted and is also payable to my wife at 100%. So now, they are offe...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 26, 2014 11:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lump Sum vs Pension
Replies: 15
Views: 1408

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

I think my background and experience in engineering directs me against stock picking rather than toward it. I admit I have seen colleagues behave exactly as in the blog, but that baffles me. I have seen more of my colleagues who would not attempt to pick stocks. Maybe for me engineering was always ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 26, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 128
Views: 9083

Re: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks

To OP: I think as engineers we develop an unconscious tendency towards trying to reduce every system down to a few control variables, and then try to use those few variables to control or predict the system's behavior. That's mostly what we are trained to do. Where we go wrong is in identifying ver...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 26, 2014 11:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Engineers Think They’ll Be Good at Picking Stocks?
Replies: 128
Views: 9083

Re: Need Help! Sell My Condo or Rent It

Being a landlord is a hassle. If you are not committed to building up a rental property business then I would say sell. One might guess that the 'pop' is done in the US housing market. There was too much demand for too little supply, plus demand from investment/rental property buyers. That has (perh...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 26, 2014 9:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Help! Sell My Condo or Rent It
Replies: 11
Views: 1040
Next

Return to advanced search