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Re: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?

Cringely has some interesting things to say about Buffett, too. For those who like to read things and pick stocks, I am absolutely NOT saying Cringely has the crystal ball, but I am saying that most of the financial writers are an echo chamber and it is quite interesting to read comments from an in...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?
Replies: 44
Views: 2149

Re: How does one hedge against deflation?

Size doesn't matter. What matters is that the sovereign issues its own currency. Japan, and China for that matter, cannot default unless they want to for some perverse reason. So the PIGS risk is high. Germany of course does not issue its own money; and is the outlier because of their austerity. I ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 22, 2014 10:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one hedge against deflation?
Replies: 52
Views: 3649

Re: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?

Cringely has some interesting things to say about Buffett, too. For those who like to read things and pick stocks, I am absolutely NOT saying Cringely has the crystal ball, but I am saying that most of the financial writers are an echo chamber and it is quite interesting to read comments from an in...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 22, 2014 9:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?
Replies: 44
Views: 2149

Re: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?

Do large acquisitions work for tech cos? Having been working a couple of decades at large tech cos in Silicon Valley, and witness the integration process of many acquisitions, I would say that overall, they are very challenging. Best case, the acquirer will take advantage of part of the technology/...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 22, 2014 7:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?
Replies: 44
Views: 2149

Re: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?

Several business instructors I had said, "If the only way a CEO can add value to a stock is through buybacks, it is time to get a new CEO.". The same thing is said for raises dividends much faster than revenue/profit growth. One worked at IBM for decades. They were not corporate finance p...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?
Replies: 44
Views: 2149

Re: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?

inbox788, Since they have been consistently doing buybacks, they must have concluded that their stock was consistently undervalued for more than a decade and was always a good investment. They were probably right some of the time but I suspect that there were other motives at work. That is some lis...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?
Replies: 44
Views: 2149

Re: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?

When companies announce significant acquisitions the share price of the acquirer usually goes down. McKinsey tracked a large database of acquisitions, and found that only about 1/3 created a positive shareholder return (for the acquirer) and that the initial reaction of the stock market (to mark the...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 22, 2014 4:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?
Replies: 44
Views: 2149

Re: How does one hedge against deflation?

... Once the TIPS fell below par, it would (mathematically) have to offer a real return to an investor-- making them quite attractive instruments. How would a TIPS trading below par because of a rise in real interest rates have a higher real YTM than one just issued offering the same recently-risen...
by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 22, 2014 4:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one hedge against deflation?
Replies: 52
Views: 3649

Re: How does one hedge against deflation?

PS. Because of the Treasury's guarantee, wouldn't a TIPS bond whose adjusted principle was below par value due to prolonged deflation likely be valued "at par" by the market? If close to maturity, yes it would trade at par. If there was significant deflation a long way before maturity (a ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 21, 2014 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one hedge against deflation?
Replies: 52
Views: 3649

Re: US REITs: An Expanding Market

Actually I have seen Die Hard (the one with Bruce Willis, not John Bogle ;-)), and you have lots of tall buildings in downtown LA (and San Francisco) ;-). Or in an analogous tectonic zone, Tokyo has plenty of very tall buildings. There *is* a resistance to building new tall structures that there is...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US REITs: An Expanding Market
Replies: 29
Views: 3962

Re: PhD in Computer Engineering?

Financial industry is actively recruiting "rocket scientists." If all other prospects fail, one can settle for a $200k salary on Wall Street. Victoria I thought the financial industry was kind of struggling these days. What areas are actively recruiting rocket scientists? The financial in...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PhD in Computer Engineering?
Replies: 33
Views: 3325

Re: Local college invests 56% of assets in "alternatives"

The race to impugn the motivations of university trustees is depressing and, in my view, incorrect. There IS a danger of sociological 'me too' ism. Harvard is doing it, so why don't we? Fiduciary duty says Yale is doing it, so so should we. A failure to correctly anticipate the Key Success Factors i...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 20, 2014 9:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Local college invests 56% of assets in "alternatives"
Replies: 29
Views: 2792

Re: The Euro-Boglehead way of Bonds

Investment is the art of 'good enough'. International Bonds for US investors seems somewhat unnecessary. Not disliked per se. They have a huge domestic bond market, US government backing, without currency risk better yields are not really available from other countries (Japan? Germany?). For a Euro ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Euro-Boglehead way of Bonds
Replies: 6
Views: 589

Re: Any reason not to buy the International Bond Index Fund?

As per other posters given that the currency risk is hedged the impact on total returns and volatility will be small. If the US has some kind of economic crisis the dollar will fall, and the fund, which hedges, will take that pain (but not the pain, presumably, of higher interest rates). Compared to...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any reason not to buy the International Bond Index Fund?
Replies: 15
Views: 1845

Re: Building a New House, Advice please.

Random thoughts: I am not a big fan of Tyvek. I do like ZIP Wall (Huber product) for exterior sheathing, but I like the 19/32" rather than 15/32". I like Zip with foam board over it, then an added WRB like black paper over the foam. I would frame using Advanced Framing methods, which is b...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:37 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Building a New House, Advice please.
Replies: 59
Views: 4254

Re: List of private companies that don't trade stocks--huge!

You can access some of these business by investing in private equity. I think it is a good strategy really. For stocks and bonds, go passive and cheap with Vanguard funds, and then capture some of the returns from private business by buying into some private equity deals/funds. Interesting if you f...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Exposure to privately held companies via corporate bonds?]
Replies: 3
Views: 211

Re: [Exposure to privately held companies via corporate bond

[split from old thread List of private companies that don't trade stocks--huge! - admin alex] Would it make sense to invest in corporate bonds issued by private companies to get exposure to private companies in addition to public companies in a total stock market index fund? Has there ever existed ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Exposure to privately held companies via corporate bonds?]
Replies: 3
Views: 211

Re: TBM too much treasury?

So apparently there are orthodox and reformed Bogleheads... who knew? Sorry I fell out of my chair laughing. :happy :sharebeer :sharebeer I have to misquote Mad Magazine at this point: 'There are orthodox, conservative and reformed Bogleheads. Then there are very liberal Bogleheads we like to call ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 18, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TBM too much treasury?
Replies: 67
Views: 4139

Re: Solarcity Solar Bonds

Alex Frakt wrote:
Valuethinker wrote:Larry Swedroe's book on individual bond investment is good. So is ?Anna Thiu? (can't remember her surname).

Annette Thau - amazon.com/The-Bond-Book-Third-Edition
Larry Swedroe - amazon.com/Only-Guide-Winning-Bond-Strategy-Youll


Thank you!
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Solarcity Solar Bonds
Replies: 6
Views: 802

Re: house odor after crawlspace encapsulation

My bad, Ammonium Sulfate fire retardant (and boric acid) Ammonium nitrate might be... the opposite... of a fire retardant, really. This feels like a Hal Clement or Poul Anderson 'world building' science fiction novel ;-). In what sort of alien environment would the aliens use ammonium nitrate as a ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: house odor after crawlspace encapsulation
Replies: 46
Views: 2980

Re: At my age is it ever to late to invest?( UK)

There is a complex interaction with the tax credit system and I am not an expert/ can't say any more. Your assets may increase and reduce your eligibility for other benefits in retirement. It's hard to find a personal pension provider charging you less than 1.0%. I use one of the big insurance compa...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: At my age is it ever to late to invest?( UK)
Replies: 13
Views: 1243

Re: Solarcity Solar Bonds

I spend quite a bit of time thinking about investment/ sustainability issues. My general take is this. Make your investments for financial return and diversification. Make regular monetary contributions to causes which you favour. None of the big NGOs has a huge budget, yet something like RAN has be...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Solarcity Solar Bonds
Replies: 6
Views: 802

Re: US REITs: An Expanding Market

Supply of space is not however fixed: buildings get taller. In London we dig basements as well. Not so many tall buildings or basements here in California . Concentrate on California REITs ;) ? ;-). Actually I have seen Die Hard (the one with Bruce Willis, not John Bogle ;-)), and you have lots of ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US REITs: An Expanding Market
Replies: 29
Views: 3962

Re: US REITs: An Expanding Market

It makes you wonder if this is an asset class that is overcrowded with too many dollars chasing few real opportunities (at least in the US). Perhaps the majority of US real estate is still privately held, rather than in REITs. So one could argue the reverse ie that there are lots of REITs yet to be...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 17, 2014 12:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US REITs: An Expanding Market
Replies: 29
Views: 3962

Re: US REITs: An Expanding Market

^ Agreed. REITs have been great when cheap (1999,2008) compared to the market. They were essentially value stocks. When they inevitably become cheap again, I would consider adding a slice to my portfolio. What's a good measurement for determining if a REIT is a good buy? I have heard that Price to ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 17, 2014 12:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US REITs: An Expanding Market
Replies: 29
Views: 3962

Re: US REITs: An Expanding Market

fwiw Long term REIT earnings grow minus 1.5% in REAL terms I wonder why that happened. I'd expect REIT earnings to grow with rents over the long term and for rents to rise at or above the rate inflation (since the supply of land is fixed). Supply of space is not however fixed: buildings get taller....
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 17, 2014 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US REITs: An Expanding Market
Replies: 29
Views: 3962

Re: Is it possible to have a favorite movie

Blade Runner A fondness for it was part of what got my spouse interested in me ;-). It is not, rewatching it, a perfect movie. But it has many, many moments of near perfection. To find as thoughtful a science fiction movie, again, you have to go to Gattacca , say. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, my next f...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it possible to have a favorite movie
Replies: 82
Views: 3052

Re: PhD in Computer Engineering?

Please don't confuse computer engineering with computer science. CE is a few courses different from EE. CS is closer to a math/programming/network eng degree. My son is in a CE program right now, and I'm a EE. From personal experience, the best college for a specific grad program will not necessari...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 17, 2014 10:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PhD in Computer Engineering?
Replies: 33
Views: 3325

Re: PhD in Computer Engineering?

Postby VictoriaF » Tue Oct 14, 2014 10:39 pm Financial industry is actively recruiting "rocket scientists." If all other prospects fail, one can settle for a $200k salary on Wall Street. Victoria These days, the tendency is more to hire people with engineering undergrads (or physics or ap...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 17, 2014 10:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PhD in Computer Engineering?
Replies: 33
Views: 3325

Re: How to wrap my head around downsizing my home?

Back Bay besides the costs also has very uneven sidewalks and is probably not such a good area for someone anticipating mobility issues. Back Bay has another interesting issue. Boston is at much higher risk of earthquakes than most people think. We get 3's around here every few years but a 6 or mor...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 17, 2014 10:16 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to wrap my head around downsizing my home?
Replies: 47
Views: 3541

Re: PhD in Computer Engineering?

My son is finishing his senior year at a good but not great EE/CE school (nationally ranked around 90th) and has a good gpa (around 3.7). He had a research fellowship over the summer, and is now interested in getting a PhD and doing research in CE. How hard is it to get admitted to a top 20 or top ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 17, 2014 7:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PhD in Computer Engineering?
Replies: 33
Views: 3325

Re: Best town I've never heard of [for relocating]

Just saw an article from US News and World Reports naming Buffalo, NY as one of the 10 best places to retire if you are living on SS alone. Not if you've grown up in Buffalo. I did and still here :D Watching the decline of Buffalo down the decades, from the perspective of Channel 7 Eyewitness News,...
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 17, 2014 7:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best town I've never heard of [for relocating]
Replies: 97
Views: 9634

Re: some research on dark pools

Note this thread revived -- was 2013.
by Valuethinker
Fri Oct 17, 2014 6:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: some research on dark pools
Replies: 4
Views: 1085

Re: Investing in Japan with Yen Hedged to USD or EUR

Hello, What are your thoughts about investing in Japan with the currency risk hedged to euro's (for a European based investor) or dollars ? Would you ever choose to hedge currency risk for stock positions ? Scot probably not. You are paying away good money for something you have at best 50% chance ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 16, 2014 11:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in Japan with Yen Hedged to USD or EUR
Replies: 5
Views: 305

Re: How to wrap my head around downsizing my home?

Apologies if I have missed this BUT a 2 storey house (small) with an elevator installed would seem to offer a possible solution? Or a stairlift? This would reduce the neighbour issues. You only need a tiny garden (a patio really, plus some plants). Having your own parking is going to be pretty impor...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 16, 2014 11:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to wrap my head around downsizing my home?
Replies: 47
Views: 3541

Re: Vanguard REIT Index and P/E

Since 90% of AFFO is paid out as dividends, dividend/ price is a widely used metric ie yield. Also price to net asset value/ book value. NAV is a lagging indicator, but there are times when REITs trade at significant discounts to NAV (bear markets) and premiums (bull). So yield relative to other REI...
by Valuethinker
Thu Oct 16, 2014 7:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard REIT Index and P/E
Replies: 4
Views: 638

Re: Best town I've never heard of [for relocating]

Two phrases that have always rung true to me: 1. Life is full of little compromises. 2. You can't always get what you want, but if you try...you might get what you need (paraphrased, but with full credit to Mick Jagger). Perfect climate, great schools, near a city, airport, not too expensive? OP di...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 13, 2014 9:37 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best town I've never heard of [for relocating]
Replies: 97
Views: 9634

Re: Best town I've never heard of [for relocating]

Hello fellow Bogleheads! I'm looking to move to a town in which to put down roots and raise a family. I've finally come to the conclusion that life is too short not to live in a place you find beautiful. So, below are some criteria I'm looking for, and I look forward to any recommendations you migh...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 13, 2014 9:31 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best town I've never heard of [for relocating]
Replies: 97
Views: 9634

Re: Best town I've never heard of [for relocating]

Really think people have no clue what bearable winter means. To me it means snow is ok as long as the roads don't freeze, I can still drive around and the utilities stay on. I was surprised to see someone suggest No. Dakota. Hmmm. Most places I have been in winter, the snow falls and the roads free...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 13, 2014 9:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best town I've never heard of [for relocating]
Replies: 97
Views: 9634

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

3. It's difficult to buy when the market is falling. (For some reason, it's easier to sell when the market is rising.) Victoria Victoria perhaps you were being rhetorical? You of all posters? It's easy to sell in a rising market because we are myopic loss avoiders. It's roughly twice as painful to ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 13, 2014 9:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 430
Views: 28338

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

im simply looking to buy on a discount,whether its a 10% discount or 15% discount or 30% discount,and keep accumulating as the discount gets deeper.basically im seeking to accumulate aggressively in a bear market and be conservative in a hyper bull market.that is the magic formula,no need timing or...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 430
Views: 28338

Re: Stay with CalSTRS or move to CalPERS?

With a Defined *Benefit* pension scheme it's normally best to maximize your years in the system. Final salary (last 5 years, usually) is the basis of your pension payout. I cannot speak to these 2 schemes, but that is the guiding principle. If I have a guess, it is that such schemes (public sector) ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stay with CalSTRS or move to CalPERS?
Replies: 7
Views: 1027

Re: Building a New House, Advice please.

I did forget one thing. LED lights. The future of lighting is LEDs. CFLs, halogens etc. will decline to niche applications. LEDS are just a dominant technology- -in efficiency and bulb life they just trump everything else. They now do 'warm yellow' 2700K LED bulbs which look fine-- the neighbors put...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 13, 2014 5:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Building a New House, Advice please.
Replies: 59
Views: 4254

Re: Building a New House, Advice please.

No budget? You are in serious trouble. Let me clarify. We have just begun the process, we are finding a lot, and in discussions with the builder and architect. There is obviously an upper limit on the budget, but anything we spend will be well within reason of what we can afford. The house size wil...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 13, 2014 5:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Building a New House, Advice please.
Replies: 59
Views: 4254

Re: Building a New House, Advice please.

I have mixed feelings about this (the more you protect, the more it tells the world you have something to hide) but you *could* put in a safe, say in a floor. A gun safe would be another thing to consider. To my mind, it's better not to have anything worth stealing, and let the burglars clean the pl...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 12, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Building a New House, Advice please.
Replies: 59
Views: 4254

Re: Best town I've never heard of [for relocating]

Hello fellow Bogleheads! I'm looking to move to a town in which to put down roots and raise a family. I've finally come to the conclusion that life is too short not to live in a place you find beautiful. So, below are some criteria I'm looking for, and I look forward to any recommendations you migh...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 12, 2014 11:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best town I've never heard of [for relocating]
Replies: 97
Views: 9634

Re: Building a New House, Advice please.

Do everything possible to avoid change orders. Some time ago there was a TV show "Dream House." I think they cancelled it because too many of the projects turned into tragedies. It seems to me that it could be useful viewing for those planning construction. The UK equivalent is 'Grand Des...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 12, 2014 11:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Building a New House, Advice please.
Replies: 59
Views: 4254

Re: Building a New House, Advice please.

Like Valuethinker, I would urge you to make the house as energy efficient as possible. You should make Energy Star certification part of the written contract. That's the very minimum standard you should accept. Oklahoma has hot summers and cold winters. It's much easier and cheaper to do this with ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 12, 2014 11:17 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Building a New House, Advice please.
Replies: 59
Views: 4254

Re: Building a New House, Advice please.

We haven't set a budget for the house yet. Still in discussions with the builder. The house will be one story with a full basement. All of the plans I've looked at that I like seem to be called Mediterranean Style. Since Mrs B has knee and hip issues we will be making sure the house is handicap acc...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Building a New House, Advice please.
Replies: 59
Views: 4254

Re: Building a New House, Advice please.

Another point I should remember.

For a home for older citizens, those with arthritis or other movement difficulties.

Put the plugs at waist height. Not at skirting board height.

Consider a small separate apartment like unit that would be suitable for a live-in carer, or relative who is staying.
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 12, 2014 9:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Building a New House, Advice please.
Replies: 59
Views: 4254
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