Search found 26734 matches

by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 01, 2015 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Berlin neighborhood for one week stay
Replies: 3
Views: 180

Re: Berlin neighborhood for one week stay

We will be in Berlin at the end of this month for a week. We will be renting an apartment and there are many to chose from. The question is where. We are not especially young, have zero interest in clubbing, are not fashionable, hip, nor trendy and graffiti makes me weary. We like good bakeries clo...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."
Replies: 30
Views: 2897

Re: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."

I would disagree with $4k-5k per capita GDP. I had heard it as $10k-15k, or "middle income". That it's very hard to break out of the middle income trap. Google tells me Mexico is about $10k per capita, and Brasil about $11k. China about $6,800. The guy wrote the book in the end of 2011 an...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 01, 2015 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to start a blog and claim the name?
Replies: 36
Views: 2459

Re: How to start a blog and claim the name?

Get the domain name ASAP. It costs just a few bucks and you don't have to actually do anything with it right away. Also, get social media names, e.g. Twitter. Again, you don't have to do anything with it right away, but you don't want the regret later that someone else took it because you postponed...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 01, 2015 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."
Replies: 30
Views: 2897

Re: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."

Generally the problems with EM economies are: - dependence on commodity exports (Brasil, Russia etc.) - China is in its own mess - a private sector debt and property bubble which is now unwinding - a mass of shadow banking which has spread exposure all over the system - some countries are current ac...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 01, 2015 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."
Replies: 30
Views: 2897

Re: "Investors are fleeing once-popular emerging markets."

There is a good book on emerging markets investing called "Breakout Nations" by Ruchir Sharma http://www.amazon.com/Breakout-Nations-Pursuit-Economic-Miracles/dp/0393345408/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1441122179&sr=8-1&keywords=breakout+nations The main thesis of the book is that g...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 31, 2015 4:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Proof that this summer was hotter than last summer
Replies: 11
Views: 1064

Re: Proof that this summer was hotter than last summer

This comparison is meaningless without location information -- to an outside observer anyways.

Cooling degree day data is available somewhere on the internet, by locale. As is heating degree days (for winter).
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 30, 2015 3:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs: The one Tilt that Makes Sense?
Replies: 47
Views: 3118

Re: REITs: The one Tilt that Makes Sense?

http://www.vanguard.com/pdf/s553.pdf?2210022068 Page 8 has the key data. Of the returns of REITs 1989-2008, 7.02% came from income ie dividends and average dividend yield was 6.7% over the period. Price apprecation was only 1.72% The vast majority of your returns in these instruments comes from divi...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 30, 2015 3:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some thoughts about VWEHX (Vg High Yield Corporate)
Replies: 7
Views: 520

Re: Some thoughts about VWEHX (Vg High Yield Corporate)

I use as a rule of thumb: long-term returns = initial yield – default rate. Plugging in the numbers, you get either: R = 5.54 – 2.3 = about 3.2% (with the July default rate excluding energy/metals) or R = 5.54 – 1.1 = about 4.4% (excluding also the Caesars bankruptcy). This number is quite attracti...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 30, 2015 3:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some thoughts about VWEHX (Vg High Yield Corporate)
Replies: 7
Views: 520

Re: Some thoughts about VWEHX (Vg High Yield Corporate)

Thoughts: 1. The vg fund seems more likely to sell at a loss than allow defaults, which still represents credit risk (selling at a loss). 2. You will find two schools of thought on spread: either percentage of spread matters or absolute spread matters. Some feel that if safe bonds are at 1% then HY...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 30, 2015 3:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timber Anyone?
Replies: 11
Views: 1323

Re: Timber Anyone?

Disease and fire are very real risks. Up the Rockies, the pine bark beetle has cut a swathe of devastation. The bug is Mexican in origin, and warmer winters mean the winter no longer kills it off-- it starts each new season that bit further ahead. Interior British Columbia has been devastated, and I...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 30, 2015 3:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recessed/Pendant Lights: Where to Place for this Kitchen
Replies: 9
Views: 698

Re: Recessed/Pendant Lights: Where to Place for this Kitchen

Is it worth an additional $37.50 per bulb to put in LED now instead of BR230 incandescent? Or should we wait till the current bulbs die out, then replace with LED later (since the technology will be better/cheaper)? We currently have 4 fluorescent tubes (which yields around 3000 lumens each). Isn't...
by Valuethinker
Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 1984
Views: 379688

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

OMG; the market is in stability!! I don't know what to do. This is a "black swan" that no one could have predicted. :confused OMG - Major oil company equities are up 10%+ in two days, guess they didn't get the newsflash about the impending collapse of oil prices (those are up 10% in a day...
by Valuethinker
Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8046

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

A way of summarising this would be "in crises, correlations go to 1.0". You want to be a little careful with that statement. Correlation does not equal causation - you know the drill. This too is a true statement: "In crisis, markets move in independent directions, correlations go to...
by Valuethinker
Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me think through the effect of foreign currency on stocks
Replies: 3
Views: 213

Re: Help me think through the effect of foreign currency on stocks

First off, can someone recommend some good books / articles dealing with the effect that holding stocks denominated in different currencies have on their long-term return? I know Mr. Bogle says that it should be a wash in the long-run (the type of currency has no effect). What I don't really unders...
by Valuethinker
Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sigh, what's the point of knowing investing theory?
Replies: 20
Views: 1584

Re: Sigh, what's the point of knowing investing theory?

Sto You say, "Oh, well, you're in school, you'll have money after that." Maybe. I'm studying Computer Science, and I'm on pace to graduate Cum Laude, but I feel like I'm pretty much the worst programmer in my classes. I have no idea what I'm doing. I just invest far more time in it than t...
by Valuethinker
Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Time to upgrade my HVAC?
Replies: 22
Views: 2273

Re: Time to upgrade my HVAC?

a/c cycling every 10 min. makes me wonder about the effectiveness/energy efficiency of your windows and insulation..in the winter does your furnace cycle that often also? yes, also 10min on/off for heat in the winter. read that it takes about 10-15years for ROI on new windows. never thought about i...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8046

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

Does anyone understand the cause of this week's crash and why international moved pretty much lock-step with domestic providing no diversification benefit? Is this just driven by institutional investors moving large sums of money into both funds at the same time, thus moving their prices at the sam...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8046

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

Benjamin Graham said that in the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine. Note that prices are NOT set by people's estimate of current value, but by their expectations of FUTURE value. Those expectations are a lot more volatile than the underlyi...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8046

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

The China market tanked. The rest of the world got worried. Simple as that. Or as the old saying goes: " The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent " And Andrei Schlifer wrote a neat paper saying that in academic economic speak "the limits to arbitrage". It'...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8046

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

The China market tanked. The rest of the world got worried. Simple as that. Or as the old saying goes: " The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent " And Andrei Schlifer wrote a neat paper saying that in academic economic speak "the limits to arbitrage". It'...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8046

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

The basic diversification for me this week was that I lost money on every continent (except perhaps Antarctica) rather than just losing money in North America. But did you really lose anything? Assuming you didn't sell - if your in it for the long haul this is just a blip... The way I look at it is...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8046

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

Stock price is supposed to track fundamental earnings. Where did you come up with that one? Short term movements in the stock market are rarely, if ever, rooted in fundamentals. The China market tanked. The rest of the world got worried. Simple as that. Short term movements are about speculation-- ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8046

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

The real reason I made this topic was because I don't understand how domestic and internal stocks could both experience a 7% decline in one week. Stock price is supposed to track fundamental earnings. How can the fundamental earnings of two massive regions both fall at the exact same time? It sound...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8046

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

I care about short run results for rebalancing. If there's a flash crash in one asset I want to be able to sell my other assets to rebalance into it and restore my AA and get better returns by buying low and selling high. But when all assets fall at the same time, no rebalancing bonus can be gained...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early retirement with a pension
Replies: 38
Views: 4480

Re: Early retirement with a pension

In my police job I originally worked rotating 8 hours shifts on one month rotations. Then we went to fixed shifts for about 6 years and I got days based on seniority. About 2.5 years ago we went to rotating 12 hours shifts with one month rotations. About a month ago it was decided that we were goin...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young UK-based investor looking for help with initial asset allocation
Replies: 14
Views: 821

Re: Young UK-based investor looking for help with initial asset allocation

I want to keep my investments as simple as possible, and I think I have a high tolerance for risk. I may want to use some of the ISA as a down payment on buying a house in around 10 years' time, but I don't know if, or how, that should affect my asset allocation. I trust the wisdom that 80% of my p...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young UK-based investor looking for help with initial asset allocation
Replies: 14
Views: 821

Re: Young UK-based investor looking for help with initial asset allocation

80% global equities (or 70/10 if you have to segregate out the UK part) 20% UK gilts (I note you have picked Indexed Linked. That in theory is your most diversifying asset. However I believe that Index Linked Gilts are overvalued, and so I would go for straight gilts at this point) My rationale is ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got a great entry level full time offer (70K + 10K signing bonus), not sure if I should accept or decline
Replies: 35
Views: 4391

Re: Got a great entry level full time offer (70K + 10K signing bonus), not sure if I should accept or decline

Lol, this is the first time hearing from anywhere, actually, that IB is not a good career path. Ahhh... I could tell you stories, culled from my friends and acquaintances. Business school is full of people, ex IB analysts, saying they never, ever, want to work for an Investment Bank again . The fin...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got a great entry level full time offer (70K + 10K signing bonus), not sure if I should accept or decline
Replies: 35
Views: 4391

Re: Got a great entry level full time offer (70K + 10K signing bonus), not sure if I should accept or decline

Hi guys, I'm currently in a bit of a dilemma about what to do for a job offer I recently recieved and I'm hoping to get some thoughts and feedback to help me come to a conclusion. To start off, some information about my full time offer: entry level analyst role in finance at a major bank, 70K + 10K...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 26, 2015 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young UK-based investor looking for help with initial asset allocation
Replies: 14
Views: 821

Re: Young UK-based investor looking for help with initial asset allocation

Hi, I'm a 23 year old student with a sum of money that I inherited while young which was invested for me. I'm now trying to understand finance and investing so I can take matters in to my own hands. I'm also about to start a four-year PhD programme funded via a tax-free stipend, so I'll be able to ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 25, 2015 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it my imagination?
Replies: 14
Views: 1658

Re: Is it my imagination?

Is it my imagination or is the media more calm and even putting a positive spin on this market downfall. I'm seeing more rational discussion and advice around the downturn than I would have expected. Maybe we have learned something over the last five years or maybe "crying wolf" isn't as ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can anyone help me understand China
Replies: 31
Views: 3831

Re: Can anyone help me understand China

Is there an easy way to understand what is happening in the markets related to China? Not an "easy" way. But this has happened in Emerging Markets before-- 1998 in particular. A property-financial bubble has built up. Companies and individuals were borrowing money and reinvesting it in pr...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kind of getting excited about energy stocks
Replies: 50
Views: 4521

Re: Kind of getting excited about energy stocks

Forgot I had a buy order for a solar company. My buy GTC orders are a good 10% Below last closing. The order filled in premarket. I'm in the black on this company. :happy The solar market is basically horrible. The Chinese have overinvested and are selling panels at below breakeven prices. Every ot...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kind of getting excited about energy stocks
Replies: 50
Views: 4521

Re: Kind of getting excited about energy stocks

I have 1/3 of my stocks in Canadian index, being Canadian (1/3 Canada, 1/3 US, 1/3 International/emerging). That's close to having a big position in energy stocks :oops: Yup - emerging markets is a proxy for resource stocks, canada is basically commodity driven and there's talk of a real estate bub...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 76
Views: 10519

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

I don't consider owning the entire domestic market and its thousands of stocks to be "one basket". Perhaps many baskets, but in the same barn? Depends on what you are looking at. That one basic has all the same currency and soveign risk (guess what those apply to the US as much as they do...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A perspective on the current selloff in the S&P 500
Replies: 6
Views: 2656

Re: A perspective on the current selloff in the S&P 500

Well, at least this decline is consistent with the seasonal trend of a later-summer sell-off. This figure is a compilation of seasonal data on the DJIA over the period 1950-2012. http://www.aaii.com/files/images/articles/8875-figure2.jpg Source Neat chart, thank you. A behavioural explanation is th...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kind of getting excited about energy stocks
Replies: 50
Views: 4521

Re: Kind of getting excited about energy stocks

It is only down 40% from its peak in June 2014 (crude oil prices are down over 60%) and it is still 55% above its bottom in March 2009. The sector is by no means cheap when looking at 2016 earnings, which might still be too high to begin with. I think that till the companies in the sector and inves...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 20, 2015 6:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 955
Views: 189975

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Hello - first official post! I'm excited to be here. Currently reading Dead Wake: The Last Crossing of the Lusitania by Erik Larson. Welcome to the forum :) . I read that too, it's a very good book in my opinion. Everything I've read by Erik Larson has been very worthwhile. Dead Wake was great. Bec...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 20, 2015 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hold on to pension or take one time lump sum
Replies: 7
Views: 677

Re: Hold on to pension or take one time lump sum

Hello Bogleheads, I recently received an offer from a former company to receive a one time lump sum payment on my old pension plan. These are the four options. Option 1: Roll lump sum payment to an IRA or other qualified retirement plan $26,580 Option 2: Receive a lump sum cash distribution $21,264...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: help choose home heat fuel/furnace
Replies: 14
Views: 920

Re: help choose home heat fuel/furnace

My oil burning forced air furnace (85000 btu bonnet) is 12 years old and running fine. But I have an LPG tank full of gas at $.99 per gallon and think I can buy more. Oil would cost $2 to $2.50 per gallon and I don't want to buy it! Present furnace is 80% efficient (or less) and a new gas burner is...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: help choose home heat fuel/furnace
Replies: 14
Views: 920

Re: help choose home heat fuel/furnace

lpg seems to sort of track oil prices. Last I got was $2.39 /gallon. 99 cents/gallon seems way under market in the US. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPLLPA_PRS_NUS_DPG&f=M I believe, and I've been told this in other threads here I think, that propane prices bas...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: help choose home heat fuel/furnace
Replies: 14
Views: 920

Re: help choose home heat fuel/furnace

saladdin wrote:I would look at pellet stoves/furnace. On year 5 with by pellet stove, still runs like a top.


Are the pellet prices quite volatile? Here in the UK, with new biomass consumers coming in all the time, wood can get quite expensive.
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: help choose home heat fuel/furnace
Replies: 14
Views: 920

Re: help choose home heat fuel/furnace

If you are not in the far north, consider a heat pump. It can be quite efficient at warmer temps, but the cost effectiveness falls off rapidly below freezing. Ralph Central Indiana has some pretty bitter winters. I agree that an Air Source Heat Pump may be the way to go, but it would be worth talki...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: European Portfolio - my very own approach
Replies: 2
Views: 288

Re: European Portfolio - my very own approach

Hi I would like to hear opinions on my very own two fund-portfolio. A couple of thoughts went into this - I am from Germany, so this is all very complex in regards to taxation etc. -adhering to the Bogle principles (broad index fund/ETF, no market timing, low cost) -easy, automatic taxation for a G...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 19, 2015 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 955
Views: 189975

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

.... Then there are the documentaries: - London Can Take It (later: Britain can take it) -made for the American audience, to convince the American public that Britain's will was intact - The Lion Has Wings - the Royal Air Force in the early days - Listening to Britain In that last one, the singer M...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 23 year old with 50+ years to invest looking for advice
Replies: 31
Views: 2315

Re: 23 year old with 50+ years to invest looking for advice

I agree with the OP. Just sock it all in 100% VTSAX (total market index) every year and come back and see how its doing in 20 years! Yes, when I hear advice like this I say "would the Japanese feel the same way if they had invested 100% of their money in the Nikkei index"? :P As one or tw...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Mag:Why Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Doesn’t Like Investing in Foreign Markets
Replies: 64
Views: 6746

Re: Money Mag:Why Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Doesn’t Like Investing in Foreign Markets

Well, I don't think you'd design a new system all that much like the UK system either. Probably wouldn't have a monarch, among other things... :) Maybe not the Royal Family of a small German state ;-). But I think you see the point? Your system looks strange to outsiders, too. It's not a good argum...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Mag:Why Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Doesn’t Like Investing in Foreign Markets
Replies: 64
Views: 6746

Re: Money Mag:Why Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Doesn’t Like Investing in Foreign Markets

Well, the fact remains that investing in foreign developed markets hasn't done anything to write home about for your absolute or risk-adjusted returns over the last 45 years. Yes, there were shorter periods in which it helped and shorter periods in which it hurt but the net result as you go out to ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Mag:Why Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Doesn’t Like Investing in Foreign Markets
Replies: 64
Views: 6746

Re: Money Mag:Why Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Doesn’t Like Investing in Foreign Markets

What perplexes those of us from countries with a British parliamentary system is that you would give the Upper House so much power, and yet make it manifestly so undemocratic (or unproportional if you will). If you were designing a new government, for the US, or for another country, from scratch to...

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