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Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

RuralAvalon Thank you for those references. You have these battles in history, when both sides are more or less evenly matched. When history and tradition means that neither can or will give way, when strategically it becomes the place of decision. When it is to the death. Stalingrad. Guadacanal and...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 21, 2014 10:21 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 170
Views: 15321

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Neptune's Inferno:the U.S. Navy at Guadalcanal , by James A Hornfischer. In August - November 1942, 6 major naval gunnery battles usually at night, each side lost 24 major combat vessels, 1600 U.S. Marine and Army killed, over 5,000 U.S. sailors killed. I read that one. In the modern era, since Tsu...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 21, 2014 9:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 170
Views: 15321

Re: Pension buyout offer - Accept or reject

You should take a very careful look at the PBGC website. Promised benefits before age 65 are very vulnerable. L. in the case of Boeing as plan sponsor, I have fewer worries than with many employers. The balance sheet is in good shape AFAIK, it is in a duopoly with Airbus for the world's airliners, ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 21, 2014 8:17 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension buyout offer - Accept or reject
Replies: 42
Views: 2913

Re: Pension buyout offer - Accept or reject

Wow, I just started posting here and did not expect such a complete and thorough discussion. Bogleheads really have some expertise. I plan to keep the pension and decline the buyout. Thanks all. Yes - the return is guaranteed. Like buying a zero coupon US Treasury paying 5.3% (current rates are mor...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 21, 2014 8:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension buyout offer - Accept or reject
Replies: 42
Views: 2913

Re: ISOs, private company stock, and a self-directed IRAs

I've read about the crazy things some people do with self-directed IRAs (Mitt Romney, Max Levchin, etc), and realized I might be able to do something similar. I'd plan on checking with my CPA before doing any of this, but figured I'd run it by everyone here first since it might be a fun tax problem...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 21, 2014 8:05 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ISOs, private company stock, and a self-directed IRAs
Replies: 6
Views: 287

Re: ISOs, private company stock, and a self-directed IRAs

The sorts of people who do these things have access to top price legal and tax accounting advice. Do you? How likely is it that you have found a genuine loophole? As opposed to a legal ambiguity. Can IRS retrospectively examine this and tax you on it? Would you have the financial resources to deal w...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 21, 2014 8:04 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ISOs, private company stock, and a self-directed IRAs
Replies: 6
Views: 287

Re: What temperature for house for long winter absence?

Hi, We'll be away from home for 2 months this winter for the first time. I want to minimize our heating cost while at the same time not damage any appliances/infrastructure in the house. In your opinion, what temperature should I set the house at during these two months? I don't know if it matters ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 21, 2014 7:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What temperature for house for long winter absence?
Replies: 31
Views: 2464

Re: What temperature for house for long winter absence?

I live in a frigid zone, and leave the house for more than a month at a time in winter. * fill the freezer with bread; fill the fridge with bottles of water why? I've read that fridges and freezers use less energy when they are full than when they are empty. This may be an urban myth - maybe one of...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 21, 2014 7:01 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What temperature for house for long winter absence?
Replies: 31
Views: 2464

Re: Investing In Currency?

If you do buy a foreign bond fund, like the Vanguard one, it hedges the currency exposure/ risk. The Vanguard one is somewhat unusual in doing so, note. Many (most?) don't hedge. I had been given to understand that most did hedge? I don't know about regular mutual funds (being irrelevant to me), bu...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing In Currency?
Replies: 33
Views: 1848

Re: Need some punch lines.

LongerPrimer wrote:How many Bogleheads does it take to change a Bulb?
:annoyed :oops:
Really need some good lines. :sharebeer


First they have to decide if it needs changing.
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:55 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Light Bulb Question
Replies: 42
Views: 2589

Re: Light Bulb Question

:oops: All I had a question was about spiral versus regular cfl's, I am not interested in being sold on led's. Vs. a CFL, it's a far better solution though. If you're not concerned about energy savings then get an incandescent. CFL's have horrible quality light, don't dim well (no matter what the b...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Light Bulb Question
Replies: 42
Views: 2589

Re: Light Bulb Question

Incandescent bulbs, will, as I understand it, essentially be unobtainable in most countries quite shortly. They *can* be made to meet the energy efficiency regs but the technology advantage of LEDs is so large, that the manufacturers won't find it economic to make them. For a few years stockpiles w...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:52 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Light Bulb Question
Replies: 42
Views: 2589

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Hi Valuethinker, the book with the details is Alice Schroeder's The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life. I had to go through my Kindle highlights to pull up the relevant portions. (The Buffalo Evening News wasn't loss-making when Buffett bought it, but it had only modest net income, h...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 44
Views: 3595

Re: Europe off-season (late Jan), 11 days, $3K budget

Southern Italy - Pompeii etc. I'm going on a cruise of the Dalmatian Coast (mainly Croatia) in December. Sicily and Malta are also on my list. Istanbul is a definite "again". Morocco would also be quite warm - include it with Spain. It should be possible to do Malta and Sicily in the same...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 21, 2014 5:15 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Europe off-season (late Jan), 11 days, $3K budget
Replies: 19
Views: 1176

Re: Europe off-season (late Jan), 11 days, $3K budget

You can go to Moscow. Ruble is down and Aeroflot is cheap. Victoria Temperatures could be down also in late January... Dear Gawd. Moscow and St. Petersburg in January. My partner found Moscow to be cold, dark and depressing and that was on a fairly ordinary January not a bad one. If we have a bad w...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 21, 2014 5:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Europe off-season (late Jan), 11 days, $3K budget
Replies: 19
Views: 1176

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Thanks for taking the time to give a detailed response, Larry. Second, value can be measured in various ways that are defined and easily measured---the most common are price to book, earnings, cash flow, sales and dividends. The first four get you similar sized premiums. The "fundamental"...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 21, 2014 5:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 44
Views: 3595

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

I think factor-based analysis suffers from a category problem. I've often heard on these boards (I think!) that Warren Buffett was just selecting factors before people knew of them, but I'm not sure I buy that argument. I'm pretty sure Buffett himself would say this does not accurately describe his...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 21, 2014 5:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 44
Views: 3595

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

http://timharford.com/2014/11/finance-and-the-jelly-bean-problem/ has a good explanation for why finance reasearch is often wrong. Imagine a test that determines that a result is meaningful if there's less than a 1 in 20 chance that the results are due to chance and that you test 40 factors. The od...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 21, 2014 4:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 44
Views: 3595

Re: Europe off-season (late Jan), 11 days, $3K budget

North of the Alps you will get ice and snow and darkness. London works in January because there is a lot to do-- but it is dull and grey, and when it snows the place shuts down. Munich isn't a bad call -- but you will have (lots) of snow. I've been to Vienna in January and found it dark and depressi...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 21, 2014 4:56 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Europe off-season (late Jan), 11 days, $3K budget
Replies: 19
Views: 1176

Re: Light Bulb Question

My porch CFL burned out rather quickly. I think the problem is they don't do well with big changes in temperature and particularly cold? Valuethinker, http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/01/14/1269678/-Something-to-watch-with-LED-lighting# LED light has its own kind of problem in recessed / enclosed...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 20, 2014 9:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Light Bulb Question
Replies: 42
Views: 2589

Re: Small cap value premium

In regards to the risk theory : if more risk should equate to higher returns then why don't commodities have any kind of decent long term return? The nature of commodity markets is very different. The economy does not consume stocks. In other words, commodities have a value which is not financial--...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 20, 2014 9:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 41
Views: 2906

Re: How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?

It is very hard to figure, because one has to have a really honest figure for the cost of car transportation. I think the IRS's $0.59 per mile which matches AAA's estimate, http://newsroom.aaa.com/2012/04/cost-of-owning-and-operating-vehicle-in-u-s-increased-1-9-percent-according-to-aaa’s-2012-‘you...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 20, 2014 9:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?
Replies: 44
Views: 2650

Re: How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?

If I lost my license and had to take public transport, here's my commute: Bike 4 miles to commuter rail in Southborough, Ma. 1 hour ride to south station, Boston. T ride or bike to North station and take commuter line to Acton, Ma. Bike 4 miles to work. On a good day, 3 hours minimum each way and I...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 20, 2014 9:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?
Replies: 44
Views: 2650

Re: Light Bulb Question

:oops: All I had a question was about spiral versus regular cfl's, I am not interested in being sold on led's. Vs. a CFL, it's a far better solution though. If you're not concerned about energy savings then get an incandescent. What's the outlook? Incandescents are around, but will the manufacturer...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 20, 2014 9:33 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Light Bulb Question
Replies: 42
Views: 2589

Re: Investing In Currency?

After reading and evaluation all of these posts, I've come to conclusion that just investing into International Stocks is the safest and best way to invest into Foreign Currency? I assume you are American. American's do not have to "invest" in currencies as everything we do is in dollars ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 20, 2014 7:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing In Currency?
Replies: 33
Views: 1848

Re: Investing In Currency?

If you do buy a foreign bond fund, like the Vanguard one, it hedges the currency exposure/ risk. The Vanguard one is somewhat unusual in doing so, note. Many (most?) don't hedge. I had been given to understand that most did hedge? VG in keeping with the spirit of the company, did the numbers, produ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 20, 2014 7:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing In Currency?
Replies: 33
Views: 1848

Re: Gold And Silver As A Currency Hedge?

The Ellen MacArthur Foundation (you could look it up) is concerned with sustainable design. They (and others) note that the properties of many recycled materials (like plastics) are substantially degraded from their original use. Other materials like carbon fiber composites consume more energy to r...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 20, 2014 6:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gold And Silver As A Currency Hedge?
Replies: 125
Views: 8815

Re: Investing In Currency?

After reading and evaluation all of these posts, I've come to conclusion that just investing into International Stocks is the safest and best way to invest into Foreign Currency? yes. The problem with currency is it can go against you as well as for you. For long periods at a time. If you just hold...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 20, 2014 5:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing In Currency?
Replies: 33
Views: 1848

Re: Gold And Silver As A Currency Hedge?

I have to say that as a lifelong student of history the last page and a half of this thread has been interesting and enlightening. I've no idea whether or not gold and silver are good hedges against currency and inflation, but I do know a whole lot more than I did previously about genocide in the A...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 20, 2014 5:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gold And Silver As A Currency Hedge?
Replies: 125
Views: 8815

Re: Keep or sell Zero Coupon Bond?

1. it depends on your sale cost. What spread the dealers will give you? For bonds you usually get worse than the quoted price (opposite of a small investor for stocks).

2. does it matter from a capital gains vs. interest point of view, for tax?
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 20, 2014 5:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Keep or sell Zero Coupon Bond?
Replies: 7
Views: 802

Re: How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?

Not putting many miles on your car can be detrminental to its "health." You'll want to move the car so the tires don't get flat spots. You also should drive at highway speeds twice per month for around 20 minutes. Be generous in giving the car time to warm up after it has been sitting (pe...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 20, 2014 5:05 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?
Replies: 44
Views: 2650

Re: How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?

Depending on all the factors related to the commute, nature of "mass transit", etc. - there may be benefits that are not (in the short term, at least) financially quantifiable - that relate to lower stress. It might be even better if you can be "productive" to some degree by rea...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 20, 2014 5:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?
Replies: 44
Views: 2650

Re: Question about California Teachers Pension

Thanks for the information. I need to read up on pensions for my curiosity. I am trying to figure out which is the better financial road. Let's say I contribute the same 8% and the company contributes 3% match (match has been my experience in my jobs) to my 401K for 30 years. I invest per Boglehead...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 20, 2014 5:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question about California Teachers Pension
Replies: 12
Views: 1190

Re: Light Bulb Question

For the past 2 weeks our Costco had Feit 60w equivalent LED's 3 for $6 with a utility rebate at the front so no mail fuss. I would not bother with the florescent lamps in the OP unless you really have a good reason. CFL's are brighter than LED's and I am not paying 15 dollars per bulb (vs $2) unles...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 20, 2014 4:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Light Bulb Question
Replies: 42
Views: 2589

Re: Light Bulb Question

I honestly do not know the answer, but I purchased the box of tubular ones from Costco (your first link), and I can confirm all the negative reviews on Costco site. Mainly, they take about 5 minutes to warm up, and they don't last. Once they are warm, the light is good. I, like other reviewers, wil...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 20, 2014 4:43 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Light Bulb Question
Replies: 42
Views: 2589

Re: Light Bulb Question

:oops: All I had a question was about spiral versus regular cfl's, I am not interested in being sold on led's. But you might be locking yourself into an obsolete technology-- buying a fitting that only takes CFLs? My bet is in 10 years CFLs will be quite rare, and expensive for being rare. At the c...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 20, 2014 4:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Light Bulb Question
Replies: 42
Views: 2589

Re: Investing In Currency?

After reading and evaluation all of these posts, I've come to conclusion that just investing into International Stocks is the safest and best way to invest into Foreign Currency? I assume you are American. American's do not have to "invest" in currencies as everything we do is in dollars ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 20, 2014 4:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing In Currency?
Replies: 33
Views: 1848

Re: another look at private equity

All that said, I'm not sure how a debt/ebitda ratio is likely to convert into a debt/equity ratio, so it's hard to say what the right leverage adjustment is even if we know the PE companies are more leveraged. Or to quote Margin Call "Be smart. Be first. Or cheat". ;-). ;-). They got that...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at private equity
Replies: 25
Views: 1776

Re: Gold And Silver As A Currency Hedge?

No arguments there about Barrick. But there are gold miners who have much less debt than Barrick, greater operational cash flow, a lower-cost portfolio of mines, and importantly for this industry, better management. Gold's demand stems from a belief (whether right or wrong) about its place in the m...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gold And Silver As A Currency Hedge?
Replies: 125
Views: 8815

Re: How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?

Cost of owning a car in the UK is about £5000 pa including depreciation, insurance, road tax, repairs, gasoline or diesel. Say USD 8000.

My cost of public transport is about £1800 pa *but* it would not be feasible to drive: Parking plus London Congestion Charge would add another £6000 pa.
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 19, 2014 11:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much is saved by taking mass transit to work?
Replies: 44
Views: 2650

Re: Do I really need a car?

My roommate lives in Redwood City and we’re both planning on living in her pool house until we have enough money to rent our own studio. Would it be wise to get a car and split expenses with my roommate or should I just rely on taking the train to work (Cal train), and bike wherever else I need to ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 19, 2014 10:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do I really need a car?
Replies: 11
Views: 1026

Re: Do I really need a car?

Yeah give it a try. I'm car free. I retired at 51 with a paid up condo located in the center of a major US city. Within 7 blocks of me I can find every conceivable need or want. I used my bike to commute to my job for the last 20 years. I also lived on a direct train route for those times I didn't ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 19, 2014 10:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do I really need a car?
Replies: 11
Views: 1026

Re: Vent free propane stove

Very good comment about people living in an exhaust pipe! +1 I could never understand, actually could not believe it, that people would live in rooms heated directly with natural gas or kerosene, nobody ever mentioned about venting. But then I am an engineer. Frontier society. Once. Sticks with it ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 19, 2014 10:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vent free propane stove
Replies: 12
Views: 1416

Re: another look at private equity

Average leverage? Say less than $500m deals about 50% Debt to Enterprise Value *now* I think. Debt to EBITDA (average) got to over 6.0x at the peak of the bubble, it's probably now 3-4x. That sounds about right. Here's S&P on the average debt/ebitda for the S&P500: http://www.standardandpoo...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 19, 2014 9:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at private equity
Replies: 25
Views: 1776

Re: another look at private equity

The main point is that SOX compliance costs are not significant in this context. CEO motivation could well be a significant factor. PE owners may not be as forgiving as public company boards if things don't go as planned, although the rewards for success can be higher. The psychological research sh...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 19, 2014 7:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at private equity
Replies: 25
Views: 1776

Re: another look at private equity

A word of caution is warranted when it comes to implementing a strategic asset allocation to the private equity asset class with listed private equity. This is a macro-inconsistent investment policy. All listed private equity companies are part of the broad equity benchmarks. As a result, listed pr...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 19, 2014 7:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at private equity
Replies: 25
Views: 1776

Re: Diversification among Bonds?

You should add: - TIPS - Global government bonds (developed) - other inflation linked (Canada, Sweden, France, UK etc.) - Global Emerging Market government - Global corporate bonds (investment grade) - EM corporate bonds - High Yield bonds (domestic) - High Yield bonds (overseas) - Asset backed bond...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 19, 2014 7:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification among Bonds?
Replies: 17
Views: 1513

Re: another look at private equity

The main point is that SOX compliance costs are not significant in this context. CEO motivation could well be a significant factor. PE owners may not be as forgiving as public company boards if things don't go as planned, although the rewards for success can be higher. The psychological research sh...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 19, 2014 7:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: another look at private equity
Replies: 25
Views: 1776

Re: Vent free propane stove

mhalley wrote:When I was poor growing up we always heated our house with a similar type setup. Looking back on it now, it is a wonder we didn't die of CO poisoning or burn the house down. I am sure they are much more safe now, but I would def get a good co/fire alarm.
Mike


+1
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 19, 2014 5:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vent free propane stove
Replies: 12
Views: 1416

Re: Vent free propane stove

Thank you for the replies I'll go with the vented unit. bf And please please please buy a CO detector. Even though in theory you do not need one. Put lithium batteries in it so it is less annoying-- replace less often. Carbon Monoxide poisoning is one of the easiest, stupidest ways to die. Can't th...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 19, 2014 5:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vent free propane stove
Replies: 12
Views: 1416
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