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If you feel like it, you might want to find older EM bond data. Not sure, but some or maybe even average EM bond yield spreads to US treasuries ~1995 may have been even higher than in 1998. Maybe that was just in Latin America. One way to look is past downdraws, another is highest yield or spread. ...

Hi Nisi: From wikipedia: 1997 Asian financial crisis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia From SSRN: Search Asian contagion: 188 papers Search eLibrary :: SSRN regards, To summarise in 30 seconds. The Crash began with a default of a Thai property company run by (?) the nephew of the prime minister. I...

Yes, I have also been struggling with this. Retirement in the next few years is likely, and I have planned a 'bottleneck' glide path. I am about 40/60 stock/fixed now and am moving towards 30/70 at retirement. Half of the fixed is in cash/SV/CD/I-bonds. I plan to spend from the cash portion first, ...

Thanks Valuethinker for your explanation. REIT sounds just like Bonds, when interest rate rises, bond prices fall. When REIT yield rises, REIT prices fall. I never heard of this before, I should really go back and read some investment books about REIT. S&P500, reits, bonds all seems overpriced ...

If the dividend yield doubled, back to historic levels of 6% say, then the price would drop to 50. Doesn't this suppose re does not get more profitable? I am doing what in mathematics is called a first derivative. Ie the sources of return from REITs are - dividend yield (initial) - dividend growth ...

Now, all we’re left to calculate is the speculative return. Mr. Bogle, I think, would say that the historical yield should be 6%, so the doubling of the yield over the next 10 years should detract 7% pa from the return. I'm a newbie. Reading this many times, and I still don't understand the specula...

In line with what Bobcat2 said about discount rates. There are huge merits in increasing your income stream in later life with an income stream that is: - CPI protected - longevity insured That is Social Security. It makes far more sense to annuitize/ spend your own assets now if you can increase yo...

At the end of the day, my REIT allocation is exactly the 12% it has been for more than a decade. . How often do you rebalance? Given the fund volatility, you could make a case for daily rebalancing. The reason I like TIAA-RE (for the same reason Swensen does) is you get a relatively 'pure play' on ...

While obviously my thoughts can be seen spelled out in detail in the linked thread, I can summarize as follows, while also addressing some of the above content: - While there may be some similarities between a REIT's revenue stream and bonds, this by itself is not sufficient rationale to support ex...

Yes, normally I'm all for paying down debts. But this one does not start accruing interest until April. I feel kinda bad just letting the money sit there between now and then at 0.10% in a bank account. There has to be something better I can do with it for 9 months, no? Well, you could put that mon...

whoopsy, or the OP, has two total posts on this forum. Both of them in this topic. And he has not come back to this topic since two days ago? I'm reading. Since college, I've been making between 30k and 50k and paying about $1000 a month toward the private non-federal loans. The federal loans have ...

The Roth is more flexible than the 403(b) in terms of withdrawal. In the future you can withdraw contributions for a wide variety of reasons....kids college education, house, etc. That can be good or bad depending on how you look at it. But it is a significant difference between the Roth and 403(b)...

Hi everyone, I wrote to this forum last July, and everyone was so helpful in advising me. I have been extremely busy over the past 12 months work with work and finishing my Master’s degree (which I paid for in full, freeing up about $5-$6k a year which would have normally gone to tuition. BTW my st...

If Vanguard is owned by the funds and doesn't have to satisfy stockholders, why does it pursue growth so aggressively and keep coming up with new funds like this one, of questionable value. Why not concentrate on the stuff that works and keep growth controlled so it keeps on working? There are stil...

Calm man wrote Why would anybody buy this? That's even under optimal circumstances. But now there is a large purchase fee and high ER. If one did want it, what's the rush? Do you really want bonds from Turkey, Russia, Brazil and who knows where else? I think you have a good point here. If someone i...

Old fashioned value investors would wait to buy when an asset has high expected returns, especially when nobody wants it. There’s an old quote, “Buy when there's blood on the streets, even if the blood is your own.” In other words, after markets have crashed and economies have faltered. Perhaps EM ...

AndroAsc wrote Has the Vanguard Developed Market Bond Fund been launched yet? I am not sure if I would prefer bonds from Greece, Italy, Ireland or Portugal over bonds from Brazil and Singapore, the default risk is probably similar... :happy ;-). Look at the yields. The default risk, EU backing or n...

My understanding is that a lot of emerging market countries with good credit don't issue debt in USD. Ex. Singapore issues their debt in local currency (Singaporean dollars). Therefore, this fund will leave out a bunch of the better emerging market credits. That's a relatively new trend ie 'locals'...

Whilst a house with furniture etc in it is easier to sell than an empty one, this is generally not a good idea. The ideal 'for sale' house looks like the owners have just stepped out for a few minutes BUT somehow left the house in a total immaculate state (with far less books furniture and general j...

I would expect the trend to lead to index funds doing better and active funds having a harder time. The more that is known publically about company, the less chance there is for people to be able to take advantage of imperfect information. Securities which don't trade publically and don't have to m...

Hadn't heard this one before: According to Marc Andreessen, co-founder of silicon valley VC firm Andreessen Horowitz, if the current climate of regulation continues, new companies will be scared off from going public, resulting in a two-tiered system where rich people will invest in private growth ...

I call [nonsense-- admin LadyGeek] . Me too. Plus, both VCs ad PE firms need an exit, and you can't always sell to a strategic investor. IPOs are here to stay. I worry more about the intrinsic value of public shares, given the restrictions put on them by many newer tech firms. Jon Could you explain...

Ok the top 3 markets in the fund (5% each) are Russia, Turkey, Brazil. Russia has defaulted before. As long as oil prices remain high, it will not again. Brazil has 'got religion' and maybe is a safer bet than before. Again as long as oil prices remain high enough to do that development deep offshor...

Emerging Market Bond Fund is available https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/fund-announcement-05142013 The new fund is now open to investors during a subscription period that will run through May 30 with exchange-traded fund (ETF) shares expected to be available in early June. OK they ...

Lots of very good stuff here from other posters. Macro view, from someone not part of US SS system, flying over at 30,000 feet. It's important to figure out tax implications, and yet those will change. Basically about non SS income and the impact on your SS and total income after tax. But even havin...

The Greatest Generation!!!! No. Just an ordinary generation, in extraordinary times. The United States was late to the war to save western civilization. Isolationism was strong, particularly in the Midwest, against the generally pro Britishness of the WASP upper class in the North East (Americans s...

By 2008, the hedge fund investments amounted to almost $103 million. That’s a very high concentration of the non-real estate assets in a single asset class. Since when are "hedge fund investments" considered to be a "single asset class"? . Professor X Since forever, really. Hedg...

Dick Couch's: The Warrior Elite: Seal Class 228 The Finishing School Down Range Former Navy Seal writes about the training over the first two books and Afghanistan in the next book and Iraq in "Sheriff of Ramadi" which I haven't read yet. Paul Rory Stewart wrote a book about being a provi...

Dr. Swensen recommends 15% - 20% of a portfolio in REITs. We don't know what Swensen (and Malkiel?) would say *now*. Swensen has been off work with cancer for the past year, and the edition of his book that I have is 2005? There is a later one. Given the volatility of REITs in the 2008-09 period, t...

I'm not a market timer or desire to be a landlord but I just pulled the trigger on a beachfront condo. The condo represents a good value and I felt like my stock values were getting too high at $1.7m. We won't use it for the entire summer so we will rent it out via VRBO. My primary residence is pai...

Hi My mum has around 565k in cash and owns her own property which is worth around 300k. She always did want to move (my area has gone downhill) and we found a really nice place in a nice area. The house costs 600k. So she has around 865k in equity. A) Do you think she should keep her house and me a...

600k is a heck of a house for one person, except in very expensive areas. And as someone else said, it won't be long before climbing stairs is a problem. For 600k, I assume there are at least 2 stories. How big is this house in terms of one person living in it? How difficult is maintaining the yard...

Yes, Valuethinker you raised great points. I am in agreement. It goes back to the old saying that you can't fake a dividend. I have always said that boring is good and boring that pays a dividend is better. Still I couldn't ignore the arguments that Larry Swedroe made. Pretty much correlation is no...

I am comparing an 04 AWD Sienna with over 100,000 miles to a used Prius. My mileage now is in the 15 range. Commute is over 200 miles a week. It is unlikely this would work. 10,000 miles pa at say 20 mpg = 500 gallons gas 10,000 mpg at say 40 mpg = 250 gallons gas Looks like you would be saving aro...

As some of the math above, it would be difficult to justify ditching a brand new but less efficient car for mileage alone. However, if the car you're looking to let go if is older, and/or about to be replaced in the near future, you can't neglect the cost or convenience of having a newer, more reli...

So I was a value and dividend guy before it was cool. I would not argue with Investing is Boring's approach. Sounds good to me. Larry Swedroe has argued in a couple of threads that value stocks do well because of their other value characteristics (price to book, price to cash flow, price to earning...

Another bit of investment history. From 1929 to 1958 stocks yielded *more* than A Grade Corporate Bonds. I do not know what the situation was pre 1929. The rationale being that corporations could only escape interest payments on their bonds by going bankrupt, with heinous consequences for the compan...

The reason stock prices fall is because investors expect that the company will cut dividends. Will be forced by business considerations , known to the market, to cut dividends. Eventually. The timing is bound to be uncertain and which companies will be affected how much is bound to be uncertain. To...

... Big changes in the sector though, in that time: - creation, due to change in tax laws (date?) - massive expansion of the market cap of the sector (but still much smaller than it was in the 1990s) - a banking-credit cycle that led to sector blowup - significant changes in 1986 Tax Act, that made...

http://philosophyofscienceportal.blogspot.co.uk/2008/10/hume-and-iveys-pssc-filmframes-of.html This video is fairly famous to any of us who studied high school physics. Hume went on to found the Department of Computer Science at U of Toronto, which has become a leading department in that field in No...

I question the wisdom of using real estate figures derived from a period (1972-1989) where near-hyper inflation combined with demographic pressures drove up real estate values in a very unusual way. At least you should correct your data for inflation for it to become useful. A little more complex. ...

Thanks. For the time being I think I can use Bloomberg for what I'm looking to do. By the way, for P/B, P/E and dividend yield for entire markets I use MSCI factsheets which are updated monthly (a couple of business days after month-end). The iShares ETF data don't match and are strangely higher fo...

If you buy a house at an insufficient cap rate, you've pretty much guaranteed you've made a bad investment absent dumb luck (ex. price appreciation). Shoot for 8-10%+. I am not in the rental game but I have heard that rule of thumb 8-10% many times. Problem is, now, in London, that's unobtainable. ...

I am a fan of the company and think they can change the face of transportation. Because of this I am an investor. In another 9.5 years I hope to post my story for the haters back here: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=106653 Quite frankly, you are mad. Electric cars, or rath...

In general, if stocks are doing well I don't really care how bonds are doing. I have a mostly equities portfolio and it would have done fine overall during the last four years even if I owned bonds that lost 5% in value every year. I only care that correlations go negative when stocks tank. Here is...

Hey, why slap down these metals? Lead and antimony do far more for society than the precious metals. Not wanting to start a debate about this, other than from an informational point of view ('benefits to society of using lead') but I am struggling to find a *useful* contribution for lead. Lead acid...

What I tend to do is look up the relevant ETFs on ishares for the relevant market and see if the data is there, on on Morningstar. Of course you don't know how accurate it is, or what adjustments they have made. If you want individual stocks, then check the annual report and accounts, divide shareho...

1. On Small Value it might be worth 10% of your portfolio. If you are say under 35, 20%. But it has tax implications which can wipe out all the benefits. International Small Value would be great, but yes, really only DFA seems to offer a 'pure play'. 2. On Emerging Markets not more than in proportio...

As is often the case I am surprised at what Americans sometimes consider 'surprising'. This is a fairly orthodox result, well studied in the UK-- Andrew Oswald at Warwick University amongst others. The UK has a very high level of home ownership (over 60%- -Germany is 50%) and before that it had a hi...

Wow, as a resident I had not even thought about disability insurance. Right now according to my hospital's website I have "at no cost to employee while in training 60% of monthly basic earnings, to a maximum of $3,500/month." I make like 50k a year, so pretax like 4.1k a month, meaning 60...