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Re: Should I pay off my sisters student loans?

(Relevant: windfall recipient http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=124582) My sister recently graduated from law school. Her student loan debt is a mind-bending 168K. I am considering paying it off in one lump sum. Advantages: - Maximizing "value" A) Student loan paymen...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 30, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I pay off my sisters student loans?
Replies: 48
Views: 2978

Re: Early option exercise, non-public, large spread

It feels like you want to exercise. Nothing in life is without risk. Make sure that if you do, and it all goes wrong, that you can take the hit. That it might set back your financial plans, but not ruin them. Setting a limit of say 20% of net worth as your gross exposure to loss might be worth doing.
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 30, 2014 10:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early option exercise, non-public, large spread
Replies: 5
Views: 301

Re: Replacing Some, not all, Windows in House

Are they wood windows? If so, they can be fixed and made to operate as close to new as possible for less than it would cost for replacement windows. And everything would still match. +1 Please try to save wood windows. Given with maintenance wood windows can last virtually forever, and plastic wind...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 30, 2014 8:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacing Some, not all, Windows in House
Replies: 14
Views: 902

Re: Replacing Some, not all, Windows in House

I think there is a consensus here that just replacing some windows would look very odd. First appearances on a home are, unfortunately, quite critical. So either replace the lot (or all that are visible from *any* one angle on the house, ie at least 2 sides) or try to get a repair of existing window...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 30, 2014 8:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacing Some, not all, Windows in House
Replies: 14
Views: 902

Re: Future equities 2% real rhetoric is hogwash

The fact is that from 1966 to 1982 the U.S. stock market had a real return of just under 0%. I don't know why entrepreneurs couldn't find "new and unique opportunities to make money" for 17 years--or, if they could, why that wasn't reflected in the stock market. But it wasn't. Plain histo...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future equities 2% real rhetoric is hogwash
Replies: 42
Views: 2945

Re: Home affordability

S 1) Tough it out where we are until...when? While we love the area and our house served us well until now, I can honestly say it is not the house I (nor my wife) want to live in for another 10 years. I'm almost 40 and if we are to have any hope of having our home paid for by retirement we need to ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 30, 2014 6:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home affordability
Replies: 23
Views: 2174

Re: [Poll] Eurozone Investors and Home Bias

On equities for a Eurozone investor it is especially important to diversify globally. The Eurozone is c. 20% of world equity markets I think? Bonds there are all kinds of issues. What you shouldn't do is concentrate solely in your own country's bonds, unless you happen to be German. You can take you...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 30, 2014 6:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Eurozone Investors and Home Bias
Replies: 5
Views: 331

Re: How can I stop feeling depressed about my finances?

Hi there, My apologies if this is the wrong venue for this sort of inquiry. Long story short: I'm 26, recently completed my Masters (though I've decided to no longer pursue further graduate study), and have been working for 1 year in an admin-type office job completely unrelated to my degrees (Engl...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 30, 2014 6:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How can I stop feeling depressed about my finances?
Replies: 93
Views: 5924

Re: Yet Another Pension Buyout Scenario

My sympathies for your changed circumstances, but here is the harsh truth. You absolutely cannot afford to raid your pension to buy your son a car. You are exactly the type of person a traditional pension was designed to protect. I wouldn't sneeze at $460/month - even with inevitable erosion due to...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 30, 2014 6:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Yet Another Pension Buyout Scenario
Replies: 16
Views: 789

Re: Yet Another Pension Buyout Scenario

I'm leaning toward taking the lump, rolling it into my existing IRA to avoid tax consequences this year, then taking an early withdrawal of about $15k from the IRA in January to buy the new car for cash. I would sell the old car and roll the proceeds (+/- 2k) right back into the IRA to offset the t...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 30, 2014 5:21 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Yet Another Pension Buyout Scenario
Replies: 16
Views: 789

Re: Where to start work as an engineering major?

What will distinguish your CV when the headhunters go looking for a client for a line management job is early experience managing people, budgets. That's something you get in the Army (in a very focused sort of way) or Marines as a young officer, or in some big corporate training/ rotational manage...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 30, 2014 5:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to start work as an engineering major?
Replies: 21
Views: 1776

Re: High yield muni bonds

mjb wrote:If a bond has a high yield, there is a reason, higher risk, either duration or default. Make sure you know what you are buying.



+1
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 30, 2014 5:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High yield muni bonds
Replies: 16
Views: 1034

Re: High yield muni bonds

I am considering various ways to generate income from my portfolio. Has anyone used high yield muni bonds in their strategy? Thanks in advance for any insights. I am not USian but I would not touch them. The reason being that: - it is true that historically municipal default levels are far below co...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 30, 2014 5:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High yield muni bonds
Replies: 16
Views: 1034

Re: Minimum volatility - simply factor exposure

How are we defining 'quality'?

Is it not the same thing as 'low volatility'?
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 30, 2014 5:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum volatility - simply factor exposure
Replies: 26
Views: 1457

Re: Winds of change... Have I missed anything?

Given you are paying interest in 24 months time there is no investment that you could make that would guarantee a return above CDs, and not have the potential to lose you capital. I have a feeling you like debt a little too much. Eg your car thing. Stick any spare cash you have in CDs and when the i...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 29, 2014 11:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Winds of change... Have I missed anything?
Replies: 5
Views: 1071

Re: Future equities 2% real rhetoric is hogwash

I have been reading lately quite a few people discussing future 2% real returns on equities and I just don't understand how that is possible. Corporations are out there to make a profit. When a corporation makes money it has 2 choices with it. One is to invest back in the corporation thereby increa...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 29, 2014 11:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future equities 2% real rhetoric is hogwash
Replies: 42
Views: 2945

Re: Future equities 2% real rhetoric is hogwash

Could you provide cites to the quite a few people who said that? I read it on this forum. Over and over again and to be honest not going to look for citations. Just look at any thread that discusses SWR (safe withdrawal rate) and enough people start coming out of the woodwork talking about lower re...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 29, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future equities 2% real rhetoric is hogwash
Replies: 42
Views: 2945

Re: Will Investment Returns Ever Revert to "Normal"?

I fully expect future investment returns to be normal, it's just that the last 100 years in the US was not normal. I would expect the next 100 years to look more like the last 100 in Great Britain There are parallels between GB in 1914 in 2014 and US in 2014. However there are some quite different ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 29, 2014 10:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Investment Returns Ever Revert to "Normal"?
Replies: 56
Views: 4229

Re: Future equities 2% real rhetoric is hogwash

Not sure where you're seeing predictions of 2% expected real returns for stocks. According the Gordon Equation (used in various forms by Bogle, Bernstein and others to estimate future returns): Stock Market Return = Current Dividend Yield + Real Dividend Growth Rate or, to use current data, Stock M...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 29, 2014 10:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future equities 2% real rhetoric is hogwash
Replies: 42
Views: 2945

Re: Future equities 2% real rhetoric is hogwash

I have been reading lately quite a few people discussing future 2% real returns on equities and I just don't understand how that is possible. Corporations are out there to make a profit. When a corporation makes money it has 2 choices with it. One is to invest back in the corporation thereby increa...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 29, 2014 10:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future equities 2% real rhetoric is hogwash
Replies: 42
Views: 2945

Re: List of current takeover targets?

Brooks wrote:Can anyone suggest sites that list stocks/symbols that are current takeover targets? (for the purpose of avoidance)

Thank you.

Brooks


The UK Takeover Panel has one for London listed stocks.

Does the SEC and the NYSE not have similar listings? that are in a formal takeover period?
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 29, 2014 10:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: List of current takeover targets?
Replies: 4
Views: 450

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

His Total Return Fund which has underperformed recently suffered the same fate as the Fidelity Magellan Fund under the late stages of Peter Lynch and Berkshire Hathaway. It simply got too large and unwieldy to manage effectively and underperformed. I had not noticed Berkshire Hathaway 'underperform...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 29, 2014 10:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 106
Views: 8089

Re: Where to start work as an engineering major?

I These programs are highly competitive and offer excellent post-college experience and training for any engineer who eventually may wish to go into management. Even if one doesn't stay with the company, being a former GE Edison pick is a huge resume benefit regardless of where you go afterward. . ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 29, 2014 8:56 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to start work as an engineering major?
Replies: 21
Views: 1776

Re: Buy Local

While I understand the rationale for "Big Box" stores and such (economies of scale and all that), there is something to be said for the local merchant. Case in point: I had a lamp where the lampshade was so old it was flaking off (seriously). But I loved the lamp. Could not find a replace...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 29, 2014 8:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buy Local
Replies: 21
Views: 1374

Re: Too many houses?

* House 2 (residential rental) - Value: 13% of all real estate holdings. - Mortgage: 52% of value @ 3.75%. - Appreciation: 3.74% CAGR over 11 years. - Cap Rate: 2.79% * House 3 (commercial rental) - Value: 22% of all real estate holdings. - Mortgage: None. - Appreciation: 6.42% CAGR over 18 years. ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 29, 2014 8:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Too many houses?
Replies: 23
Views: 3593

Re: Minimum volatility - simply factor exposure

. Of all styles with recently launched funds, minimum volatility has received a significant share of assets. For example, since its launch in Oct 2011, the iShares MSCI US Minimum Volatility ETF (USMV) has accumulated $2.9 billion in assets. Across the full suite of ishares minimum volatility ETFs ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 29, 2014 8:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum volatility - simply factor exposure
Replies: 26
Views: 1457

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

No tears at PIMCO What, no tears at PIMCO? [T]here is an “overwhelming” sense of relief and excitement following the departure of Bill Gross yesterday . . . http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-27/pimco-ceo-says-overwhelming-relief-at-gross-exit-wsj-reports.html?cmpid=yhoo Someone once taught me t...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 29, 2014 8:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 106
Views: 8089

Re: Reit's

The pedant in me has to note. REITs are Real Estate Investment Trusts. A REIT is the singular form. REIT's are the possessive form. When we talk about a REIT's properties we talk about the buildings owned by one REIT. REITs' is the possessive plural. REITs' properties is the types of properties own...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 29, 2014 8:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reit's
Replies: 9
Views: 947

Re: Solar Panel company recommendations - San Diego/ Souther

OK a few general rules. If a company is door-to-door and multi-level marketing, then you probably want to avoid them. The customer has to pay for all that overhead. What you want to do is find people who have installed in your area, and speak to them. Drop a note through their mailbox (if very local...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 29, 2014 5:16 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Solar Panel company recommendations - San Diego/ Southern CA
Replies: 7
Views: 586

Re: Future equities 2% real rhetoric is hogwash

I have been reading lately quite a few people discussing future 2% real returns on equities and I just don't understand how that is possible. Corporations are out there to make a profit. When a corporation makes money it has 2 choices with it. One is to invest back in the corporation thereby increa...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 29, 2014 4:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future equities 2% real rhetoric is hogwash
Replies: 42
Views: 2945

Re: Europeans, what bond are you holding and why?

Every European country has its own tax position so there's no way of answering that question re taxes. Just re credit risk. If you take a high yield note from your own country (say Spain Portugal Italy Greece Hungary etc.) then you have doubled down, as the citizens depositing money in Cypriot banks...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 29, 2014 4:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Europeans, what bond are you holding and why?
Replies: 1
Views: 260

Re: Reit's

Warning: I was having a pedantic moment. poster rhusky pointed out that English is not definitive on this point. See my later post. The pedant in me has to note. REITs are Real Estate Investment Trusts. A REIT is the singular form. REIT's are the possessive form. When we talk about a REIT's propert...
by Valuethinker
Mon Sep 29, 2014 4:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reit's
Replies: 9
Views: 947

Re: The Roosevelts, PBS special

Apropos the previous comments, but back to the OP--I'm actually watching Burns' massive "The War" about WWII. It's quite interesting the reflections that one has in an age of a volunteer army. There's a sense of wistfulness of so many people coming together to contribute to a singular cau...
by Valuethinker
Sun Sep 28, 2014 10:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Roosevelts, PBS special
Replies: 98
Views: 7639

Re: Another pension lump sum scenario

Given presumed longevity issues and the relatively small size of all this, I think Frugal Al is probably about right. Roll it over into a tax deferred account. You should be able to get 5 to 7% return pa on it. If you put it in say 40% bonds (3% return) and 60% stocks (7% return) that would be 1.2 +...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 26, 2014 12:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another pension lump sum scenario
Replies: 14
Views: 1055

Re: Should I currency hedge, and, if so, how?

I work as a freelance editor here in the US and make about $50K per year. Approximately one-third (~17K) of my income is from an overseas company and is denominated in Euros. My current investment portfolio (low six figures in a traditional IRA) consists entirely of the Fidelity Freedom Index 2020 ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 26, 2014 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I currency hedge, and, if so, how?
Replies: 4
Views: 249

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

Here's my guess. Nisiprius comments are well taken. Gross is not young. Running the world's largest bond fund, and underforming must be quite stressful. So 2 possibilities (3): - the stress got to him. I have seen other people in high stress jobs have exactly that happen to him. I know a doctor, you...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 26, 2014 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 106
Views: 8089

Re: Unexpected Emergency

I would scale back the 401k contributions to the minimum contribution required to get the full company match (if any). If you have been contribution the max for a while, a couple of years of low contributions shouldn't be too much of a bump in the road, as long as you get back on track in a couple ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 25, 2014 11:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Unexpected Emergency
Replies: 33
Views: 3217

Re: Investing in Europe

I would not try to market time.

If you have a target allocation for international and you are underweight then I would go up to weight.
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 25, 2014 4:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in Europe
Replies: 4
Views: 424

Re: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom

Yes, I am leveraged, and I can't get a margin call. Win-win! If your mortgage comes due then that can become a margin call. Particularly if you are in negative equity. You imply from your other post that you are in a non-recourse state? This is not true in Canada, UK and perhaps some US jurisdictio...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom
Replies: 46
Views: 1518

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Just finished "Island of the Lost: Shipwrecked at the Edge of the World," by Joan Druett. An amazing story about two ships that wrecked on Auckland Island, a truly miserable-sounding place 285 miles south of New Zealand - featuring gale-driven rainstorms lasting days on end, biting insect...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 47
Views: 2354

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

I started The Apocalypse Codex by Charles Stross from the series of "Laundry" books that are parts workplace comedy/thriller pastiche/Lovecraftian horror (I'm out of order because when I read The Rhesus Chart I realized I'd missed one but it didn't really spoilerize this one). Yes they ar...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 47
Views: 2354

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Night Soldiers was the first of his many European spy novels, I think. I thoroughly enjoyed reading them all, which I suggest you do in order of publication, if possible. Here's a list of his works. http://www.goodreads.com/author/show/49941.Alan_Furst Thanks, I have The Polish Officer (the third b...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 47
Views: 2354

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Rite of Passage , by Alexei Panshin. A teenage girl coming of age story. This story won a Nebula award in 1968, was nominated for a Hugo award in 1969. I tend to agree, it's a good read. I think you can get Michael Kurland's Princes of Earth online. A series that never went anywhere, alas. It's the...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 47
Views: 2354

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Citizen Soldiers by Stephen E. Ambrose. I'd recommend this book to anyone, but sometimes it feels a little disjointed. While the stories and anecdotes from individual soldiers are the focus of the book, sometimes they didn't always align well with the larger narrative of the end of WWII in Europe, ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 47
Views: 2354

Re: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom

That is the only risk. Selling at the bottom either involuntarily (e.g. via margin call/heloc call) or voluntarily (e.g. via fear) If that risk can be mitigated then leverage is absolutely fine and would even be recommended. Matter of fact..majority of companies start off via leverage so why should...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom
Replies: 46
Views: 1518

Re: First Time Home Buyer dilemma in SoCal

As someone who lives in a rural part in the south I'd love to see pictures of a "junky" 750k house. I'm not talking about price but I'd like to see what someone calls "junky". I may just post a picture of mine just to see if it passes for california quality. In a decent neighbor...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First Time Home Buyer dilemma in SoCal
Replies: 38
Views: 3287

Re: First Time Home Buyer dilemma in SoCal

~do we keep our 5 year saving plan?? Though in 5 years housing price is likely double at this rate, and we will never be able to "catch up" to the market value. Or- Probably the best solution since you cannot predict housing prices. ~Do we keep our saving goal of $150 K, and hope for a ma...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First Time Home Buyer dilemma in SoCal
Replies: 38
Views: 3287

Re: Could one theoretically be 100% stocks your whole life?

For example, let's take the workaholic petroleum engineer who has no desire for kids. His wife is a petroleum engineer too. They spend $50,000 a year on expenses, but make $250,000 a year. Therefore they save $200,000 a year, if you did that for 40 years at an 8% real growth rate from being 100% in...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could one theoretically be 100% stocks your whole life?
Replies: 43
Views: 2743

Re: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom

The Kelly Criterion and some of the premises behind Modern Portfolio Theory demonstrate that taking the riskiest position is usually not the optimal choice for maximizing returns. Consider the illustration from the below article This particular scenario is contrived, but does demonstrate potentiall...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom
Replies: 46
Views: 1518

Re: When to throw out childhood toys? Encourage me please.

My wife and I had acquired a large collection of stuffed toys for various reasons. When we moved, we realized that we were just hoarding them, sitting in a loft in a plastic bag. So we pulled out the ones that really meant something to us (our childhood teddy bears). Since they were used the chariti...
by Valuethinker
Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When to throw out childhood toys? Encourage me please.
Replies: 34
Views: 2389
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