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Re: Do you think the biotech sector will be hurt long term?

A little bit of background. New drugs *are* price controlled, in most countries. The national health authorities bargain with the drug companies as to the price they are willing to pay for new formulations. In the UK that's called National Institute for Clinical Evidence (NICE). It makes a decision...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 23, 2014 5:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think the biotech sector will be hurt long term?
Replies: 48
Views: 2114

Re: Do you think the biotech sector will be hurt long term?

A little bit of background. New drugs *are* price controlled, in most countries. The national health authorities bargain with the drug companies as to the price they are willing to pay for new formulations. In the UK that's called National Institute for Clinical Evidence (NICE). It makes a decision...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 23, 2014 4:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think the biotech sector will be hurt long term?
Replies: 48
Views: 2114

Re: Do you think the biotech sector will be hurt long term?

I agree. A 6% drop in share price will undoubtedly discourage companies and investors from developing new drugs. That's also why nobody invests in tech companies anymore after the 2000-02 crash. After all, any fool can see there's no way for tech companies to make money considering market structure...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think the biotech sector will be hurt long term?
Replies: 48
Views: 2114

Re: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?

Even worse are the inflation data for the 1800s. We started collecting CPI inflation data during WWI because we realized inflation was accelerating because of the all out war effort. CPI type data for the 1800s was not constructed until after 1970. We argue today about the inflation data collected ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?
Replies: 44
Views: 1838

Re: Hedge fund fees

I'm just wondering about last year and the enormous amount of Money hedge funds must have made. If typical fund charges 2/20 of profits. Does that mean a lot of these managers took in at least 8 pct in fees for matching the s&p? Can someone check my math? 2% of funds under management (200 basis...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge fund fees
Replies: 12
Views: 899

Re: Do you think the biotech sector will be hurt long term?

It's hard to avoid speculating about how Gilead came up with their pricing. The market for $1,000 a day drugs can't be all that large for an illness often associated with intravenous drug use. My speculation is that it's because a number of Gilead's competitors are at work on Hepatitis C drugs of t...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think the biotech sector will be hurt long term?
Replies: 48
Views: 2114

Re: Do you think the biotech sector will be hurt long term?

Its just like a cure for a terrible life long contagious illness. Why should they get to make any money off of that? I think GILD deserves to get get paid and congratulated. Instead maybe they should have made it a chronic treatment so that people have to keep taking it for life, that way they slow...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think the biotech sector will be hurt long term?
Replies: 48
Views: 2114

Re: Which budget heating oil plan?

The past few years I've been paying a local heating oil company per delivery and luckily, prices have been fairly consistent. However I'm not of a fan of huge checks having to be written for the 4 or so deliveries I have a year. I'm considering doing a budget plan this coming year to spread out the...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 22, 2014 2:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which budget heating oil plan?
Replies: 4
Views: 256

Re: US NEWS 9 Most Affordable Placs 2 Retire

Another day another retire somewhere other than the US article... Why do we continue to insist on trading in the greatest country on God's green earth for some third world backwater on the other side of the globe??? OK, let the rural south bashing begin :oops: 'greatest country on God's green earth...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 22, 2014 2:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: US NEWS 9 Most Affordable Placs 2 Retire
Replies: 21
Views: 2417

Re: Paranoia or just hard to adjust? [High Price of Real Est

Prices in the Fort Myers/Naples area (aside from right on the water) were among the worst hit when the housing crisis struck. I think parts of California, Las Vegas, and Phoenix were the only areas that were hit harder. I sold a 2 bed/2 bath condo about 10 minutes from the coast (still considered N...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 21, 2014 1:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paranoia or just hard to adjust? [High Price of Real Estate]
Replies: 19
Views: 1990

Re: Paranoia or just hard to adjust? [High Price of Real Est

Thanks for the replies. I'm just on the fence and having some problems getting off it, on either side. The pluses for us are a much larger water front balcony which is screened (24x12), a significantly larger apartment with over 2200 sq. ft. under air (vs. 1400 now) and the many restaurants, cafes,...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 21, 2014 1:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paranoia or just hard to adjust? [High Price of Real Estate]
Replies: 19
Views: 1990

Re: Windsor, UK, question

Yup, agreed on this, I would probably have a stroke if I were to tour Versailles :shock: Civilisation is just so incredibly lucky the Nazis never took Leningrad-- what's in the Hermitage (the Czar's former palace) alone. There's a really clever Russian movie 'Russia's Ark' where a guy is injured in...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 21, 2014 1:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windsor, UK, question
Replies: 29
Views: 868

Re: Low-flow shower head: $4,500 saved in last 5 yrs

I stumbled upon this by calculating the benefit of washing out old Ziploc bags, as my waste-not-want-not family has become notorious for. By my numbers, you save money at a rate of $2.50/hr. And in my case, you are saving oil (plastic) only by burning coal (pumping/heating water). [Edited for clari...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:31 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Low-flow shower head: $4,500 saved in last 5 yrs
Replies: 35
Views: 4205

Re: Town home, good or bad idea?

Concur it's likely too early to buy a house. Also don't buy a property with someone who is not your spouse or long term partner . There's just too many issues: job change, marriage, girlfriends or boyfriends moving in, etc. A million ways to fall out. You could buy a property and rent a room to your...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 21, 2014 10:07 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Town home, good or bad idea?
Replies: 21
Views: 1510

Re: Paranoia or just hard to adjust? [High Price of Real Est

Background.... 66 married, lived in same place 10 years as owner, 7 years as a renter before that, 7 years as owner prior. Retired now with stable cola'd pension, SS and a port that meets our needs at >30 X withdrawal rate for its contribution. Wife is foreign national who uses her overseas income ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 21, 2014 9:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paranoia or just hard to adjust? [High Price of Real Estate]
Replies: 19
Views: 1990

Re: How high of an allocation to REITs?

Hello, I have more room in my tax-deferred account, and I'm debating about using it to buy more shares of VNQ. Currently, REITs make up about 14% of my portfolio. The new contribution will bring it closer to 16%. I like the high dividend of VNQ, but not the seemingly low number of stocks (104) comp...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 21, 2014 9:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How high of an allocation to REITs?
Replies: 24
Views: 2825

Re: How high of an allocation to REITs?

Rick Ferri has an excellent blog post that addresses your questions: http://www.rickferri.com/blog/investments/reits-and-your-portfolio/ The 4th paragraph answers a big question of yours, basically saying that if you already own Total Stock Market (which has ~3% REITs), then an additional 10% REIT ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 21, 2014 9:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How high of an allocation to REITs?
Replies: 24
Views: 2825

Re: Windsor, UK, question

I toured Windsor Castle in 1978. Very nice. I'll tour it, too, and then I'll reciprocate by inviting the owners to visit my castle. Victoria I toured Windsor Castle a few years ago and became physically ill from looking at all the stolen/pillaged and otherwise I'll-gotten gains. The opulence is so ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:59 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windsor, UK, question
Replies: 29
Views: 868

Re: Windsor, UK, question

3) Greenwich - Have you ever been over to Greenwich? I like to ride over, grab lunch at the Greenwich Market, and go sit in the Naval College Gardens for a picnic. Ride over to Canary Wharf in the evening to grab a pint! Don't re Canary Wharf. It looks like Battery Park City in NYC or downtown Toro...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windsor, UK, question
Replies: 29
Views: 868

Re: Landlords and REITs

The intuition that there is some correlation between RE and REITs is probably right. So by overweighting REITs, you are 'doubling up' on your investment in RE-- at least to some extent. Owning rental RE would make me cautious on owning REITs, other than the 2.5% already in Vanguard TSM. They are not...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Landlords and REITs
Replies: 6
Views: 807

Re: Paranoia or just hard to adjust? [High Price of Real Est

Sticker shock is moving from Pittsburgh to Los Angeles in 1977. Half the house for three times the price (I think that makes times six on a relative basis). Higher prices in California is not a new phenomenon. Moving West always costs, even in Florida, apparently. And I suspect the ratio now is mor...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paranoia or just hard to adjust? [High Price of Real Estate]
Replies: 19
Views: 1990

Re: POLL: what's the deal with Tuna Fish?

I think it is probably worth mentioning that as a top predator, most or all species of tuna fish are now endangered by overfishing, globally. Losing a top predator in a food chain has particularly diabolical consequences-- in particular such predators tend to be slow in reproducing, so recovery of s...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 20, 2014 5:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: POLL: what's the deal with Tuna Fish?
Replies: 44
Views: 2673

Re: Windsor, UK, question

A roads tend to be busy roads, and not so walkable. In an urban area, ordinary streets can be A Roads (I think the distinction is the Department of Transport (Federal) takes responsibility, rather than the local authority), so of course we do walk along them (and are usually unaware they are A roads...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 20, 2014 3:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windsor, UK, question
Replies: 29
Views: 868

Re: Baby Boomers: Top 10 Movies

IBoomers were born 1946-1964 in most accounts. Older boomers can be Vietnam war vets. Or anti war protesters. Boomer girls had birth control pills from 14 years old. Although it appears the Pill was first available in 1961, I doubt many 14 year old girls had access for some time. I am not sure if i...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 18, 2014 3:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Baby Boomers: Top 10 Movies
Replies: 44
Views: 2746

Re: Efficient Market question about different stock exchange

1. exchange rates! They fluctuate 24/7. Price in CAD in USD will change every instant. 2. markets don't apply the 'law of one price'. There are always differences. If the differences are significant then arbitragers move in, shorting the high price, longing the low price, in effect betting on the ga...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 18, 2014 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient Market question about different stock exchanges
Replies: 4
Views: 235

Re: Central AC and Forced Hot Air Heat (Gas)

This July would make my home 21 years old. I bought the house brand new. It is a Townhome and is around 1,800 sq. ft. My Central AC went but the heat is still working fine. Is there any advantage to do them both at the same time, or should I just take care of the AC and replace the heat when it sto...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Central AC and Forced Hot Air Heat (Gas)
Replies: 14
Views: 907

Re: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!

I am planning a trip with my girlfriend to London and Scotland for this June. We have most things planned out except for modes of travel between our points of interest. Our itinerary is: London (Heathrow) -> Edinburgh -> Inverness -> Glasgow -> London. We were thinking of taking the train between a...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!
Replies: 29
Views: 1242

Re: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!

I read somewhere that the Heathrow Express is one of the most expensive trains on the planet for the distance, starting at 21 GBP ($35) one-way and 34 GBP ($57) return, each, for the 15-minute trip. And, sadly, not even particularly convenient unless you really want to go to Paddington. In all my t...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!
Replies: 29
Views: 1242

Re: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!

There are also sleeper trains between London and Scotland. Not particularly cost effective but it might cross something off the bucket list. To do the sleeper to Fort William from London we had to change stations very early in the morning in Glasgow as I recall. There is also that London to Inverne...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!
Replies: 29
Views: 1242

Re: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!

London to Stansted is fairly easy via the Stansted express. Easy Jet flights are inexpensive and reminesent of Southwest ... (I would compare RyanAir to Spirt Airlines) Flight is ~1 hour from Stansted to Edinburgh. Pending on what time in June (late vs early) you'll need to worry about the train ov...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!
Replies: 29
Views: 1242

Re: Portfolio for Young Investors: High Bonds and Risky Equi

I've been playing around with the idea of whether a young investor might be aided by increasing both the portfolio's bond allocation and the allocation to riskier equities (int'l small, emerging markets, REITS). I've been looking around the forum to see if this topic has come up much, but I didn't ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 13, 2014 9:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio for Young Investors: High Bonds and Risky Equities
Replies: 30
Views: 2015

Re: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!

Any possibility of an open-jaw - fly in to Edinburgh or Glasgow, and out of LHR? Could save quite a bit of pain. The journey to and from London is not that rewarding in terms of sights (partly because you are travelling too fast) *except* on the East Coast mainline north of York basically, and nort...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 13, 2014 7:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!
Replies: 29
Views: 1242

Re: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!

Professor Emeritus wrote:Compare everything to a Britrail flexible ticket. about 295 for 3 days or 360 fior 4 Rigid train tickets in the UK can be a real nightmare.


Very wise advice. When my relatives visit, they tend to use the passes.
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 13, 2014 7:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!
Replies: 29
Views: 1242

Re: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!

I am planning a trip with my girlfriend to London and Scotland for this June. We have most things planned out except for modes of travel between our points of interest. Our itinerary is: London (Heathrow) -> Edinburgh -> Inverness -> Glasgow -> London. We were thinking of taking the train between a...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 13, 2014 7:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!
Replies: 29
Views: 1242

Re: REITS up (Still impossible to time the mkt)

Alright, I did a bit of research. REITs are often valued using their NAV. Basically, investors look to see if it costs more to buy a REIT than it would cost to directly buy the property that the REIT owns. Here is what the current NAV looks like for domestic REITs . http://www.snl.com/Images/RealEs...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 13, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS up (Still impossible to time the mkt)
Replies: 13
Views: 1929

Re: REITS up (Still impossible to time the mkt)

I have stuck with my REITs despite excellent posts by Dr. Bernstein, Larry Swedroe, and Garland Whizzer stating their informed opinions that REITs are overvalued compared to historical measures. Can you please provide links or URLs to these 'excellent posts by Dr. Bernstein, Larry Swedroe, and Garl...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 13, 2014 10:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS up (Still impossible to time the mkt)
Replies: 13
Views: 1929

Re: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak

... rather than causators (word?) ... You wrote it, I understood it immediately, so between the two of us at least it's a word. Besides, I like it. May I use it royalty free? I'd send you 5p per occasion except at my bank there's a $12 fee for making the currency conversion. :wink: PJW My lawyers w...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 12, 2014 4:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak
Replies: 74
Views: 6377

Re: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and pract

Funny that you say "Living in a small (and economically insignificant) country, I don't have the luxury of thinking of my government treasuries as a riskless investment. For that reason I've decided to allocate at least 33% of my bond portion to US treasuries." That insignificant country ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 10, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and practice
Replies: 19
Views: 1178

Re: 54 year old new investor with no retirement savings

And since you're a dual-citizen, check out what the Brits have for old-age benefits. I have no idea, but it might exceed what the US does. Perhaps ValueThinker could ring in on this as well... The nightmare is US taxes on UK retirement schemes (and vice versa). And I am no expert. But read all the ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 54 year old new investor with no retirement savings
Replies: 14
Views: 2512

Re: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and pract

a) borrow in their own currency (i.e. the US, Japan, the UK). This excludes countries in the Euro. I don' t understand that sentence - are you saying Eurozone countries don't borrow in Euro? The question of whether there could ever be a Eurozone government default has been more or less answered. Gr...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 09, 2014 6:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and practice
Replies: 19
Views: 1178

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

If you guys like science fiction, check out David Brin's Uplift Universe... Start with Startide Rising I'd highly recommend Startide Rising as well. I've been reading SciFi at a pretty good rate for 50 years now, and to my taste anyway Startide Rising is in the very top group along with Dune and Le...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 09, 2014 6:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 2633
Views: 602443

Re: Propane use during a full twelve month period

In our case, if the fuel tank does have to be replaced, I'll probably convert to natural gas -- now that there is a county system that goes by on the main road. The cost of the tank will go a long way toward paying for a gas furnace (or maybe a heat pump). jimb Check your numbers. I cannot check fr...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 09, 2014 6:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Propane use during a full twelve month period
Replies: 7
Views: 748

Re: Gordon equation-stock buybacks

You should be aware that Modigliani and Miller amongst others have pretty much answered your objections. Modigliani and Miller is a toy model with some important simplifying assumptions suitable for Econ 101. It assumes that there is only one stock in the universe, that stock buybacks occur at fair...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 06, 2014 2:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gordon equation-stock buybacks
Replies: 11
Views: 756

Re: Interest Rates vs Inflation

Narayana Kocherlakota, Minneapolis Fed President, suggested as much in a speech (believe it was 2010). Stephen Williamson has had a few recent blog posts on this topic (http://newmonetarism.blogspot.com), as has John Cochrane (http://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-sign-of-monetary-policy-pa...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 05, 2014 4:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rates vs Inflation
Replies: 22
Views: 1461

Re: Gordon equation-stock buybacks

You should be aware that Modigliani and Miller amongst others have pretty much answered your objections. camontgo, Thanks for the interesting links! I found the article "A Supply Model of the Equity Premium" most interesting as they attempt to provide an analytic model of the effect of buy...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 05, 2014 4:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gordon equation-stock buybacks
Replies: 11
Views: 756

Re: Urge to buy a house every rent increase

Financially, rent versus buy can be a tough call. “Financial success” in owning is certainly not guaranteed. In times of increasing inflation, with a fixed rate mortgage, then buying will PROBABLY have the edge. But in stagnant or deflationary periods, renting could be much better. But from a time ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 03, 2014 12:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Urge to buy a house every rent increase
Replies: 29
Views: 1509

Re: Interest Rates vs Inflation

I have always thought that inflation leads to higher interest rates. However, someone at a recent Bogleheads reunion suggested that rising interest rates could result in higher inflation. This point of view, that higher interest rates can cause higher inflation, was also expressed in a financial ra...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 03, 2014 12:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rates vs Inflation
Replies: 22
Views: 1461

Re: Revising portfolio- corp&int. bonds, tax-efficiency (Isr

Hi VT, as always it's great to have your insights! Please see my comments inline: I wouldn't buy Israeli corporate bonds, especially not from banks. If there was another financial crash, your portfolio would get totalled. It is now widely understood that if there are future bank bailouts, depositor...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 01, 2014 10:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Revising portfolio- corp&int. bonds, tax-efficiency (Israel)
Replies: 4
Views: 372

Re: LED bulb prices

In my experience, if they work for a week or so, they seem to tend to keep on working, the same as with CFL's. I've probably had a 15 or 20% failure rate with CFLs, but they usually last about a year before quitting. I just replaced 2 one year old bulbs and 1 two year old bulbs with the Costco bran...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 01, 2014 9:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LED bulb prices
Replies: 109
Views: 8470

Re: Death of co-worker

We had one co-worker who lost her father 2 years ago, then spent last year recovering from breast cancer. She's been back at work about 3-4 months. Last week we made her redundant (she's on 3 months notice). Business decision, exiting that line of business. I don't suppose anybody felt good about do...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 01, 2014 8:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Death of co-worker
Replies: 94
Views: 9293
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