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Re: Baby Boomers: Top 10 Movies

IBoomers were born 1946-1964 in most accounts. Older boomers can be Vietnam war vets. Or anti war protesters. Boomer girls had birth control pills from 14 years old. Although it appears the Pill was first available in 1961, I doubt many 14 year old girls had access for some time. I am not sure if i...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 18, 2014 3:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Baby Boomers: Top 10 Movies
Replies: 40
Views: 2432

Re: Efficient Market question about different stock exchange

1. exchange rates! They fluctuate 24/7. Price in CAD in USD will change every instant. 2. markets don't apply the 'law of one price'. There are always differences. If the differences are significant then arbitragers move in, shorting the high price, longing the low price, in effect betting on the ga...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 18, 2014 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient Market question about different stock exchanges
Replies: 4
Views: 216

Re: Central AC and Forced Hot Air Heat (Gas)

This July would make my home 21 years old. I bought the house brand new. It is a Townhome and is around 1,800 sq. ft. My Central AC went but the heat is still working fine. Is there any advantage to do them both at the same time, or should I just take care of the AC and replace the heat when it sto...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Central AC and Forced Hot Air Heat (Gas)
Replies: 14
Views: 883

Re: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!

I am planning a trip with my girlfriend to London and Scotland for this June. We have most things planned out except for modes of travel between our points of interest. Our itinerary is: London (Heathrow) -> Edinburgh -> Inverness -> Glasgow -> London. We were thinking of taking the train between a...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!
Replies: 29
Views: 1162

Re: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!

I read somewhere that the Heathrow Express is one of the most expensive trains on the planet for the distance, starting at 21 GBP ($35) one-way and 34 GBP ($57) return, each, for the 15-minute trip. And, sadly, not even particularly convenient unless you really want to go to Paddington. In all my t...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!
Replies: 29
Views: 1162

Re: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!

There are also sleeper trains between London and Scotland. Not particularly cost effective but it might cross something off the bucket list. To do the sleeper to Fort William from London we had to change stations very early in the morning in Glasgow as I recall. There is also that London to Inverne...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!
Replies: 29
Views: 1162

Re: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!

London to Stansted is fairly easy via the Stansted express. Easy Jet flights are inexpensive and reminesent of Southwest ... (I would compare RyanAir to Spirt Airlines) Flight is ~1 hour from Stansted to Edinburgh. Pending on what time in June (late vs early) you'll need to worry about the train ov...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!
Replies: 29
Views: 1162

Re: Portfolio for Young Investors: High Bonds and Risky Equi

I've been playing around with the idea of whether a young investor might be aided by increasing both the portfolio's bond allocation and the allocation to riskier equities (int'l small, emerging markets, REITS). I've been looking around the forum to see if this topic has come up much, but I didn't ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 13, 2014 9:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio for Young Investors: High Bonds and Risky Equities
Replies: 30
Views: 2009

Re: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!

Any possibility of an open-jaw - fly in to Edinburgh or Glasgow, and out of LHR? Could save quite a bit of pain. The journey to and from London is not that rewarding in terms of sights (partly because you are travelling too fast) *except* on the East Coast mainline north of York basically, and nort...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 13, 2014 7:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!
Replies: 29
Views: 1162

Re: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!

Professor Emeritus wrote:Compare everything to a Britrail flexible ticket. about 295 for 3 days or 360 fior 4 Rigid train tickets in the UK can be a real nightmare.


Very wise advice. When my relatives visit, they tend to use the passes.
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 13, 2014 7:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!
Replies: 29
Views: 1162

Re: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!

I am planning a trip with my girlfriend to London and Scotland for this June. We have most things planned out except for modes of travel between our points of interest. Our itinerary is: London (Heathrow) -> Edinburgh -> Inverness -> Glasgow -> London. We were thinking of taking the train between a...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 13, 2014 7:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!
Replies: 29
Views: 1162

Re: REITS up (Still impossible to time the mkt)

Alright, I did a bit of research. REITs are often valued using their NAV. Basically, investors look to see if it costs more to buy a REIT than it would cost to directly buy the property that the REIT owns. Here is what the current NAV looks like for domestic REITs . http://www.snl.com/Images/RealEs...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 13, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS up (Still impossible to time the mkt)
Replies: 13
Views: 1919

Re: REITS up (Still impossible to time the mkt)

I have stuck with my REITs despite excellent posts by Dr. Bernstein, Larry Swedroe, and Garland Whizzer stating their informed opinions that REITs are overvalued compared to historical measures. Can you please provide links or URLs to these 'excellent posts by Dr. Bernstein, Larry Swedroe, and Garl...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 13, 2014 10:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITS up (Still impossible to time the mkt)
Replies: 13
Views: 1919

Re: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak

... rather than causators (word?) ... You wrote it, I understood it immediately, so between the two of us at least it's a word. Besides, I like it. May I use it royalty free? I'd send you 5p per occasion except at my bank there's a $12 fee for making the currency conversion. :wink: PJW My lawyers w...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 12, 2014 4:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Housing Bubble and upcoming cycle peak
Replies: 74
Views: 6355

Re: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and pract

Funny that you say "Living in a small (and economically insignificant) country, I don't have the luxury of thinking of my government treasuries as a riskless investment. For that reason I've decided to allocate at least 33% of my bond portion to US treasuries." That insignificant country ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 10, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and practice
Replies: 19
Views: 1152

Re: 54 year old new investor with no retirement savings

And since you're a dual-citizen, check out what the Brits have for old-age benefits. I have no idea, but it might exceed what the US does. Perhaps ValueThinker could ring in on this as well... The nightmare is US taxes on UK retirement schemes (and vice versa). And I am no expert. But read all the ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 54 year old new investor with no retirement savings
Replies: 14
Views: 2455

Re: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and pract

a) borrow in their own currency (i.e. the US, Japan, the UK). This excludes countries in the Euro. I don' t understand that sentence - are you saying Eurozone countries don't borrow in Euro? The question of whether there could ever be a Eurozone government default has been more or less answered. Gr...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 09, 2014 6:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and practice
Replies: 19
Views: 1152

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

If you guys like science fiction, check out David Brin's Uplift Universe... Start with Startide Rising I'd highly recommend Startide Rising as well. I've been reading SciFi at a pretty good rate for 50 years now, and to my taste anyway Startide Rising is in the very top group along with Dune and Le...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 09, 2014 6:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 2626
Views: 598713

Re: Propane use during a full twelve month period

In our case, if the fuel tank does have to be replaced, I'll probably convert to natural gas -- now that there is a county system that goes by on the main road. The cost of the tank will go a long way toward paying for a gas furnace (or maybe a heat pump). jimb Check your numbers. I cannot check fr...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 09, 2014 6:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Propane use during a full twelve month period
Replies: 7
Views: 733

Re: Gordon equation-stock buybacks

You should be aware that Modigliani and Miller amongst others have pretty much answered your objections. Modigliani and Miller is a toy model with some important simplifying assumptions suitable for Econ 101. It assumes that there is only one stock in the universe, that stock buybacks occur at fair...
by Valuethinker
Sun Apr 06, 2014 2:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gordon equation-stock buybacks
Replies: 11
Views: 751

Re: Interest Rates vs Inflation

Narayana Kocherlakota, Minneapolis Fed President, suggested as much in a speech (believe it was 2010). Stephen Williamson has had a few recent blog posts on this topic (http://newmonetarism.blogspot.com), as has John Cochrane (http://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-sign-of-monetary-policy-pa...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 05, 2014 4:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rates vs Inflation
Replies: 22
Views: 1458

Re: Gordon equation-stock buybacks

You should be aware that Modigliani and Miller amongst others have pretty much answered your objections. camontgo, Thanks for the interesting links! I found the article "A Supply Model of the Equity Premium" most interesting as they attempt to provide an analytic model of the effect of buy...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 05, 2014 4:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gordon equation-stock buybacks
Replies: 11
Views: 751

Re: Urge to buy a house every rent increase

Financially, rent versus buy can be a tough call. “Financial success” in owning is certainly not guaranteed. In times of increasing inflation, with a fixed rate mortgage, then buying will PROBABLY have the edge. But in stagnant or deflationary periods, renting could be much better. But from a time ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 03, 2014 12:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Urge to buy a house every rent increase
Replies: 29
Views: 1491

Re: Interest Rates vs Inflation

I have always thought that inflation leads to higher interest rates. However, someone at a recent Bogleheads reunion suggested that rising interest rates could result in higher inflation. This point of view, that higher interest rates can cause higher inflation, was also expressed in a financial ra...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 03, 2014 12:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest Rates vs Inflation
Replies: 22
Views: 1458

Re: Revising portfolio- corp&int. bonds, tax-efficiency (Isr

Hi VT, as always it's great to have your insights! Please see my comments inline: I wouldn't buy Israeli corporate bonds, especially not from banks. If there was another financial crash, your portfolio would get totalled. It is now widely understood that if there are future bank bailouts, depositor...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 01, 2014 10:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Revising portfolio- corp&int. bonds, tax-efficiency (Israel)
Replies: 4
Views: 366

Re: LED bulb prices

In my experience, if they work for a week or so, they seem to tend to keep on working, the same as with CFL's. I've probably had a 15 or 20% failure rate with CFLs, but they usually last about a year before quitting. I just replaced 2 one year old bulbs and 1 two year old bulbs with the Costco bran...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 01, 2014 9:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LED bulb prices
Replies: 104
Views: 8118

Re: Death of co-worker

We had one co-worker who lost her father 2 years ago, then spent last year recovering from breast cancer. She's been back at work about 3-4 months. Last week we made her redundant (she's on 3 months notice). Business decision, exiting that line of business. I don't suppose anybody felt good about do...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 01, 2014 8:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Death of co-worker
Replies: 94
Views: 9278

Re: retired at 37?

Your best source of protection against inflation is your labour income. This is doubly so because Social Security is such a large proportion of inflation protection for most Americans-- it's the piece of retirement income that keeps up with inflation, when private sector DB schemes don't, and invest...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 01, 2014 5:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: retired at 37?
Replies: 52
Views: 4925

Re: Revising portfolio- corp&int. bonds, tax-efficiency (Isr

In my previous discussion here I have reached the following asset allocation, with the generous help of the forum members (especially ValueThinker :D): IRA account (tax-exempt) 10% TA-100 Index 25% S&P 500 (both are tracked using local "tracking funds" - similar in principle to mutual...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 31, 2014 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Revising portfolio- corp&int. bonds, tax-efficiency (Israel)
Replies: 4
Views: 366

Re: How much to build a small house from scratch?

Far from being unsaleable, small houses and apartments enjoy a growing market. See: http://www.lifeedited.com/ It's great to see that Tumbleweed and others are designing small, but not necessarily micro, homes. You don't have to be an extreme minimalist to want the cost and societal benefits as wel...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 31, 2014 11:17 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much to build a small house from scratch?
Replies: 28
Views: 1582

Re: Defined Benefit vs. Defined Contribution

It's normally better to stay in the DB scheme *if* you plan to continue and finish your career with the employer. If you foresee leaving, then the DC scheme may be better. So start your analysis with that bias. Usually to get to the same benefit level, by buying an SPIA at retirement, you need a far...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 31, 2014 10:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Defined Benefit vs. Defined Contribution
Replies: 10
Views: 841

Re: Private Placements

Generally these things have high fees, and illiquidity.

So they might be a good investment, but you are not in a position to know, and the managers and their friends are.

That's not a risk I would find particularly favourable.
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 31, 2014 9:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Private Placements
Replies: 2
Views: 235

Re: Death of co-worker

Per my title, a co-worker passed away very suddenly last week. Guy was in his late fifties and though I didn't work with him that much I'm trying to get my head around not seeing him in the office any more. He went home, had heart trouble, and that was it. I don't know what his planned retirement a...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 31, 2014 8:14 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Death of co-worker
Replies: 94
Views: 9278

Re: My husband is receiving $2.31M for selling his company.

Minor correction: FDIC insurance is per account registration per financial institution. A married couple can have 750k in one institution, spread across three account registrations: <spouse 1> individual, <spouse 2> individual, and joint registration. Though you should have a little under 250k in e...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 31, 2014 8:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My husband is receiving $2.31M for selling his company. What
Replies: 15
Views: 3413

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

If you guys like science fiction, check out David Brin's Uplift Universe... Start with Startide Rising . I agree Sundiver/ Startide Rising/ Uplift War are very good-- particularly the latter two. The interaction between humans, chimpanzees, dolphins and real aliens is very well done. I couldn't man...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 31, 2014 8:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 2626
Views: 598713

Re: retired at 37?

No need to cut when a minor blip like 2008 comes along even with a 4% withdrawal much less a 3%. Imagine you have an 80/20 portfolio with 1 million dollars and 2008 comes around. You get 15k from divs and take 25k from the bonds.5 years later your portfolio is worth about the same as when you start...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 31, 2014 8:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: retired at 37?
Replies: 52
Views: 4925

Re: retired at 37?

I don't like the odds on 4% withdrawals starting at 37. That's a 50-60 year planning horizon. :shock: Yes and when you chuck in what inflation at 2-2.5% pa is doing to your capital (and therefore reducing what the 4% buys) it looks really bad. What you don't want to be doing is retiring at 37 and t...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 31, 2014 6:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: retired at 37?
Replies: 52
Views: 4925

Re: retired at 37?

If he invested heavy in either Apple or Tesla, he could easily have enough money to retire with just a few hundred thousand initially. Other than an inheritance this would be my guess. Or he did some crazy plays in biotech. It isn't hard to get a 5 or 10 bagger there if you are lucky. We don't hear...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 31, 2014 6:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: retired at 37?
Replies: 52
Views: 4925

Re: retired at 37?

Go to morningstar.com and look at "growth of" charts. You can make 14 charts from 2001-2014, 2002-2014, 2003-2014, … and then add them up. Just did that. Total comes out to 25x for VTSMX. Saving $75k a year will get $1.9m. Beating the market with some lucky individual stocks will get more...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 31, 2014 6:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: retired at 37?
Replies: 52
Views: 4925

Re: retired at 37?

If you’re willing to live off say, $30k after tax per year, and you make $100k after tax, it adds up fast. $70k per year invested at 8% return gets you to a million or so in 10 years. Then you’re pretty much set. And 30k after tax isn't such a bad life these days. 8% pa is a risky assumption re rat...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 31, 2014 5:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: retired at 37?
Replies: 52
Views: 4925

Re: retired at 37?

If you’re willing to live off say, $30k after tax per year, and you make $100k after tax, it adds up fast. $70k per year invested at 8% return gets you to a million or so in 10 years. Then you’re pretty much set. And 30k after tax isn't such a bad life these days. The trick of course is actually ma...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 31, 2014 5:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: retired at 37?
Replies: 52
Views: 4925

Re: retired at 37?

It is very possible. putting away 50K over 15 years at 8% leaves you with ~$1,428,000. At a 4% withdrawal rate will give you ~$57,000/year to live off of. If he states he made 100K/yr invested 50K/yr, he should be able to live of his returns after 15 years. Inflation? That 4% pa rule is pretty dang...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 31, 2014 5:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: retired at 37?
Replies: 52
Views: 4925

Re: How much to build a small house from scratch?

I'm considering building a small house a few years from now, say about 500 square feet. I've never been involved in such a project before, and I realize that there are a LOT of variables involved, but I'm looking for a ballpark figure of how much something like this would cost. My assumptions are t...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 31, 2014 4:16 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much to build a small house from scratch?
Replies: 28
Views: 1582

Re: My husband is receiving $2.31M for selling his company.

- invest in FDIC insured CDs (max $250k per financial institution) and US Treasury Bonds or funds (up to 5 years ie short term). Then wait a year or so whilst you consider your best investment strategy. Your goal is not to make good investments right now, it's to avoid losing money Minor correction...
by Valuethinker
Mon Mar 31, 2014 4:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My husband is receiving $2.31M for selling his company. What
Replies: 15
Views: 3413

Re: Want to trade car for Small SUV: Financially good, bad,

I don't know where you live, but take a look in your Sunday newspaper. You can probably lease a Chevy Equinox for 36 months for zero down and $220 a month. Maintenance (oil changes and tire rotations) included. It's a nice vehicle, I got one a couple of months ago. Why people put tens of thousands ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Mar 30, 2014 12:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Want to trade car for Small SUV: Financially good, bad, wash
Replies: 26
Views: 1947

Re: My husband is receiving $2.31M for selling his company.

He'll be making around $250K a year. I also have my own company, and can make my own salary. We have no debt. Also, with a 3-month-old baby and around $60K in own bank account, this is great news! We have no clue what to do with the money, so I guess I'm just asking about basics. What do we invest ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Mar 30, 2014 12:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My husband is receiving $2.31M for selling his company. What
Replies: 15
Views: 3413

Re: My husband is receiving $2.31M for selling his company.

I would recommend doing nothing in a hurry *except* making maximum advantage of tax deferral in the current year-- your accountant can advise you. Then, put as much as you can into *safe* investments, like bank guaranteed CDs (you'll need to spread across 10 banks to get full FDIC coverage). And the...
by Valuethinker
Sun Mar 30, 2014 11:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My husband is receiving $2.31M for selling his company. What
Replies: 15
Views: 3413

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

VT, I read a couple of the early Bernie Gunther novels and they just didn't resonate with me. Also, there were quite a few inconsistencies that I found somewhat irksome at the time. C'est la vie. It's more the subject and the period and the concept of a sympathetic character caught up in the bowels...
by Valuethinker
Sun Mar 30, 2014 11:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 2626
Views: 598713

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

Just finished "An Officer And A Spy" by Robert Harris. A fantastic (and important) read, imho. One of the best in the past couple of years. I also just enjoyed "An Officer and a Spy." It's a rendering of the Dreyfus Affair in France. I'll go back and try other Robert Harris work...
by Valuethinker
Sun Mar 30, 2014 11:14 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 2626
Views: 598713

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

Just finished "An Officer And A Spy" by Robert Harris. A fantastic (and important) read, imho. One of the best in the past couple of years. I also just enjoyed "An Officer and a Spy." It's a rendering of the Dreyfuss Affair in France. I'll go back and try other Robert Harris wor...
by Valuethinker
Sun Mar 30, 2014 6:16 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 2626
Views: 598713
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