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Re: question about investing in oil, USO

Good afternoon friends! I am an investor of modest experience/know-how. I generally focus on putting aside as much as possible and keeping fees low, but every now and again I'm interested in making specific moves that I hope will secure a financially secure future. That's what brings me here today:...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 01, 2015 3:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: question about investing in oil, USO
Replies: 11
Views: 460

Re: Buying a Home. 30yr FRM vs. 15yrFRM vs. ARM 5/1

I almost always that fixed was the better way to go, but then I read this article: http://www.financialsamurai.com/30-year-fixed-mortgage-loan-vs-adjustable-rate-mortgage-arm-the-choice-is-obvious/ And now I'm not so sure. The style of that article is so annoying and so 'hyped' that I wonder about ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 01, 2015 3:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a Home. 30yr FRM vs. 15yrFRM vs. ARM 5/1
Replies: 7
Views: 416

Re: Buying a Home. 30yr FRM vs. 15yrFRM vs. ARM 5/1

The idea of having a 30 year fixed rate mortgage is very appealing. These are almost unique to the US mortgage market, AFAIK, and that's because of US mortgage securitization and the involvement of the Federal government. That is changing. Since other (private) mortgage markets in the world don't of...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 01, 2015 3:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a Home. 30yr FRM vs. 15yrFRM vs. ARM 5/1
Replies: 7
Views: 416

Re: Term Life Insurance Dilemma

So, my question is this. I wanted to take a 30 year term but neither of these companies provides one. This leads me to the point of this post: Should I take a 10 year term and when I turn 42 take a 20 year term (same for my wife, minus one year) or should we just take a 20 year term and call it don...
by Valuethinker
Sat Jan 31, 2015 5:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Term Life Insurance Dilemma
Replies: 11
Views: 423

Re: Forecasting REIT dividends

My even more limited understanding is that lower interest rates should help REITs actually borrow to invest in new properties. But beta exposure mostly swamps out sensitivity to interest rates. Surely one may not project market conditions to continue out in the future reliably. Out of curiosity, I ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 30, 2015 1:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forecasting REIT dividends
Replies: 13
Views: 1243

Re: Where to put company cash

When I had to set a (small) company treasury policy I had one maxim: 'The goal is to not be stupid, rather than to look smart'. ie risk is paramount. Therefore: 1. for a US corporate does 'tax exempt' bonds help it? Ie same advantages as an individual investing in same? 2. minimize credit risk. That...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 30, 2015 1:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put company cash
Replies: 5
Views: 299

Re: Forecasting REIT dividends

Garland Whizzer

Your understanding of REITs and REOCs matches mine. REITs are a relatively new form (if they exist at all) in many countries, and REOCs are much more common.
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forecasting REIT dividends
Replies: 13
Views: 1243

Re: cheap oil sounds good, but what about our portfolio?

I am enjoying the low oil prices. filled up my 30gal tank F-150 truck for about $50 bucks last night, but the oil crash is devastating the oil industry, when will these effects start to show up in investment funds, retirement accounts and bank balance sheets? I can't imagine firms like Vanguard(ind...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cheap oil sounds good, but what about our portfolio?
Replies: 2
Views: 306

Re: GNMA Fund?

It is my understanding that GNMA obligations are explicitly backed by the US Government - and cannot be removed (at least from existing issues). So, I conclude that the "credit risk" (essentially zero) is the same for GNMAs as for Treasuries. What exactly is the meaning of the word "...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 30, 2015 11:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: GNMA Fund?
Replies: 14
Views: 825

Re: IPO - what do I do with the windfall?

If you plan to raise a family in the SV area you probably buy a home, or if for other reasons you see yourself there long term. More than 5 years say. As per all posters here, figure on min 20% down, and a comfortable cushion post purchase for unforeseen expenses (there are always plenty of those wi...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IPO - what do I do with the windfall?
Replies: 4
Views: 439

Re: What if everyone was a Boglehead saver?

You've described the Paradox of Thrift . A similar phenomenom, which we saw after the financial crisis, is what happens when everyone decides to pay down their debt at the same time. It might be possible to create an economy that doesn't depend so heavily on consumer spending, but that's not the ec...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 30, 2015 8:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if everyone was a Boglehead saver?
Replies: 18
Views: 1979

Re: What if everyone was a Boglehead saver?

If you believe the economy is driven by consumption, more saving would be a bad thing for the economy. If you believe that saving would ultimately be used for investment (in capital, ie. things that business use to increase productivity), then more savings would mean more production (thus a growing...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if everyone was a Boglehead saver?
Replies: 18
Views: 1979

Re: VG Prime Money Market Fund

I'm trying to keep things simple. Too many accounts. That its my thought behind it. There's no good answer. You can't get the safety of an FDIC-insured account and the convenience of having all your accounts at Vanguard. It's as simple is that. It is my personal opinion that FDIC insurance is worth...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VG Prime Money Market Fund
Replies: 21
Views: 2034

Re: IPO Windfall Checklist

Thanks for the replies, everyone. My main takeaway is to have a plan for divesting my equity. I think most of the posts presume I have all of my equity sitting in one chunk waiting for the lockup to expire. This is not the case. I'll have about 50% vested at lockup expiration with the rest vesting ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IPO Windfall Checklist
Replies: 11
Views: 1607

Re: IPO Windfall Checklist

I've seen lots of gyrations in price of IPO companies, especially at the end of the lockup period. What I hate as an investor is the companies that seem to IPO solely so early interests can cash out, the price takes a long time if ever to recover (at times). I prefer a company access the capital ma...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 30, 2015 6:55 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IPO Windfall Checklist
Replies: 11
Views: 1607

Re: VG Prime Money Market Fund

Thanks everybody for the advice. I guess I have to develop a strategy for my emergency fund to take advantage of other viable options that can make some money for us. My wife and I have stable jobs and I think I can move some of my emergency fund into short-term bond, or other investments alike, an...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 30, 2015 6:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VG Prime Money Market Fund
Replies: 21
Views: 2034

Re: VG Prime Money Market Fund

There have been many threads on this and my suggestion may be a bit different from other responses. Why not fold the emergency fund with the investment portfolio. If your emergency fund requirements are smaller than your bond allocation, then you could roll it into the bond allocation of your inves...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 30, 2015 6:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VG Prime Money Market Fund
Replies: 21
Views: 2034

Re: VG Prime Money Market Fund

I guess I have to develop a strategy for my emergency fund to take advantage of other viable options that can make some money for us. My wife and I have stable jobs and I think I can move some of my emergency fund into short-term bond, or other investments alike, and maybe do some CD laddering as w...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 30, 2015 6:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VG Prime Money Market Fund
Replies: 21
Views: 2034

Re: Forecasting REIT dividends

Holy Cow!! REITs must really be overvalued if they are selling off their component properties. If not a sell signal, certainly an indication one shouldn't be piling into these things. Gosh, if the Real Estate Investment Trusts don't believe in real estate, that is like saying the Pope isn't Catholi...
by Valuethinker
Fri Jan 30, 2015 3:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forecasting REIT dividends
Replies: 13
Views: 1243

Re: VG Prime Money Market Fund

As per other posters if you want safety you have to go with FDIC insured accounts. Safety and liquidity that is. September 2008 proved that MMFs are not 100% safe. And if one does 'break the buck' then it will be frozen, because there will be a rush for the exits, everyone trying to get out before r...
by Valuethinker
Thu Jan 29, 2015 3:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VG Prime Money Market Fund
Replies: 21
Views: 2034

Re: Get 17% in russian savings account?

In 1998 Russia effectively defaulted on its local RUB debt (forced exchange for bonds worth less) but honored its foreign currency (USD) debt*. Currently the 2030 Russian Eurobond I mentioned, which is the benchmark, yields around 7.4%, or ~540 above the LIBOR swap curve. The 5 yr Russia credit def...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 28, 2015 12:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get 17% in russian savings account?
Replies: 49
Views: 4454

Re: Determining House Needs

These are hard questions to answer. Some rules of thumb: - buy a house sufficient for at least 5 years, if not 10 - the transactions costs kill you - location, location, location - buy in as good a neighbourhood as you can - schools, crime, access to work. Smaller houses can be extended (usually). I...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 28, 2015 11:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Determining House Needs
Replies: 11
Views: 1228

Re: Mixed treasury mutual fund

25% < 1 year, 25% 1-10 years, 25% 10+ years, 25% TIPS, seems specific enough for a fund. If the maturities in each quarter of the fund are distributed uniformly among the possible maturities for that quarter, that'd be fine with me. It does not have to look exactly like that. It seems to me that su...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 28, 2015 10:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mixed treasury mutual fund
Replies: 10
Views: 749

Re: Mixed treasury mutual fund

Can anyone recommend a passively managed mutual fund (not ETF) that is a mix of US treasury instruments, e.g., 1/4 t-bills, 1/4 t-notes, 1/4 t-bonds, 1/4 TIPS? As per other posters you'd have to synthesize this. On T Notes v T Bonds. If, at issue, a bond has more than 10 years to maturity it is a T...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 28, 2015 10:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mixed treasury mutual fund
Replies: 10
Views: 749

Re: Get 17% in russian savings account?

There's a reason the Russian lawmakers wanted to pass a law to ban holdings in foreign currency, especially USD. Nobody in Russia wants to hold rubles. Nobody. People are even willing to spend their money on toasters and microwaves, just so that they don't end up with worthless rubles. If nobody wa...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 28, 2015 10:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get 17% in russian savings account?
Replies: 49
Views: 4454

Re: IPO Windfall Checklist

While I am not working in an IPO, not ever worked in a company that went through IPO while I was working there - I am definitely interested in the discussion. Wealthfront had a nice blog post not too long ago on post-IPO strategy scenarios (https://blog.wealthfront.com/strategies-for-selling-stock-...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 28, 2015 4:15 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IPO Windfall Checklist
Replies: 11
Views: 1607

Re: Get 17% in russian savings account?

Is this the distinction you're remembering? "On August 17 the government floated the exchange rate, devalued the ruble, defaulted on its domestic debt, halted payment on ruble-denominated debt (primarily GKOs), and declared a 90-day moratorium on payment by commercial banks to foreign creditor...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 28, 2015 4:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get 17% in russian savings account?
Replies: 49
Views: 4454

Re: Get 17% in russian savings account?

Fair enough. But there was no expectation in 1998 that the Russians would default on some debt and not on other debt. Fair enough, but there was a belief that Russia was a kleptocracy run by crazed ex-communists. They were inherently unpredictable. Not expecting a selective default was right up the...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 28, 2015 4:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get 17% in russian savings account?
Replies: 49
Views: 4454

Re: Get 17% in russian savings account?

In 1998 Russia effectively defaulted on its local RUB debt (forced exchange for bonds worth less) but honored its foreign currency (USD) debt*. Currently the 2030 Russian Eurobond I mentioned, which is the benchmark, yields around 7.4%, or ~540 above the LIBOR swap curve. The 5 yr Russia credit def...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 28, 2015 4:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get 17% in russian savings account?
Replies: 49
Views: 4454

Re: Investing in London UK

On a 2 to 3 year time horizon OP is best advised to keep the money in cash. There are various term deposits that pay a little more than zero.

Probably in cash in a USD account if the move to the USA is certain. No telling where currencies would go in that time.
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 28, 2015 3:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in London UK
Replies: 3
Views: 405

Re: Newer washing machine freaks out dog

OK in Europe everyone has front loaders. We have a Bosch, and that's an 'upper middle' manufacturer.. Miele is top drawer, Siemens is Bosch but made in Germany not Poland or wherever. Then you get Electrolux etc. Yes they make a noise when filling. Yes they make a 'grinding' noise agitating the wate...
by Valuethinker
Wed Jan 28, 2015 3:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Newer washing machine freaks out dog
Replies: 34
Views: 2184

Re: Get 17% in russian savings account?

I do not remember the details but one of the things that brought LTCM down in 1998 was that the Russians defaulted on one type of debt, but not another. So that shows they are at least capable of doing something other than what the market expects. Doing what LTCM expects is not the same as doing wh...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 12:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get 17% in russian savings account?
Replies: 49
Views: 4454

Re: Advice? 1 year w/ TIAA-CREF

Hello, A year ago, Bogleheads helped me select a portfolio for my wife through TIAA-CREF. I just wanted to see if I was doing everything right. Any suggestions/recommendations would be greatly appreciated. Age: 27 Salary: $105K annually Quarterly Retirement Portfolio Statement October 01, 2014 - De...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice? 1 yr w/ TIAA-CREF and 457B
Replies: 6
Views: 285

Re: Do any young investors use Only fixed income?

Or are there any educated people out there who can explain the downside to investing heavily in things like muni bonds that are backed by the state govt? - from 1802 to 2013, US stocks have an annual real return of 6.6% - Post World War II, US long-term government bonds have an annual real return o...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do any young investors use Only fixed income?
Replies: 35
Views: 3261

Re: Do any young investors use Only fixed income?

A couple of points: - as per other investors only real return matters - putting it all into munis invites policy risk. Tax policies change. Over a lifetime they change a lot. That they have not changed over the last 60 years, say, in this matter, is no protection. This is a significantly higher risk...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do any young investors use Only fixed income?
Replies: 35
Views: 3261

Re: Get 17% in russian savings account?

But it is harvesting a *risk* premium: as mentioned, the RUB depreciated around 7% yesterday v USD. That's a pretty rough start, if one had put on the trade a couple of days ago, on hoping to take in some fraction of 17% (assuming that's the rate differential) in a year one might believe is a risk ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 11:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get 17% in russian savings account?
Replies: 49
Views: 4454

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Not quite sure where you were coming from re Scott's more recent work? As Alien and BR were much earlier. Alien was a tour de force as well, probably one of the most effective horror films ever made. Recent work like Get Santa, various dabblings in video games, the Old Testament etc. High Castle wa...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 442
Views: 57470

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

American Sniper. It's very inspiring and a great read for patriotic Americans. http://www.amazon.com/Enemy-at-Gates-Jude-Law/dp/B00003CXRA had something to say about snipers (at the Battle of Stalingrad, one of the greatest and most terrible battles in modern history). Bob Hoskins as the apparatchi...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 442
Views: 57470

Re: Is it time to buy the Greek Index or Euro?

There's going to be a lot of too-ing and fro-ing over the Euro. If you can live with the volatility then yes, you can buy. Confident that you probably haven't seen the bottom, but neither have you seen the top.
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 9:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to buy the Greek Index or Euro?
Replies: 8
Views: 1681

Re: Question on Interest Rates and the Fed

A simple question (I hope) . . . If the Fed were to increase interest rates, does that mean that the yield on the (10-year) treasury will go up from 1.80%? If you're wondering why I'm asking: Mortgage rates are closely associated with treasuries, and I'm curious what direct impact the Fed's rate wo...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 9:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question on Interest Rates and the Fed
Replies: 3
Views: 475

Re: Get 17% in russian savings account?

Isn't the 17% just compensating (or not even) for high Russian inflation? Do Russian banks let you deposit dollars at the same interest rate? Don't know what the Eurodollar rate they are paying is? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-21/banks-jockey-for-deposits-as-dollars-get-costlier-russia-cre...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 7:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get 17% in russian savings account?
Replies: 49
Views: 4454

Re: Get 17% in russian savings account?

There's a reason the Russian lawmakers wanted to pass a law to ban holdings in foreign currency, especially USD. Nobody in Russia wants to hold rubles. Nobody. People are even willing to spend their money on toasters and microwaves, just so that they don't end up with worthless rubles. If nobody wa...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 7:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get 17% in russian savings account?
Replies: 49
Views: 4454

Re: Get 17% in russian savings account?

There's a reason the Russian lawmakers wanted to pass a law to ban holdings in foreign currency, especially USD. Nobody in Russia wants to hold rubles. Nobody. People are even willing to spend their money on toasters and microwaves, just so that they don't end up with worthless rubles. If nobody wa...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 7:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get 17% in russian savings account?
Replies: 49
Views: 4454

Re: Renaissance tech vs EMH

Renaissance appears to violate Type I efficiency.

But since their algorithms remain proprietary, it's possible to have information the market does not have and therefore outperform it.
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 4:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renaissance tech vs EMH
Replies: 37
Views: 1836

Re: Get 17% in russian savings account?

Are we planning here to invest in rubles, or in US dollar bonds issued by the Russian government? Most EM bonds are in USD, not the local currency. This matters. The higher ruble rate will simply be offset by the depreciating currency (unless peace breaks out, oil price goes up again, Putin has a ch...
by Valuethinker
Tue Jan 27, 2015 3:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Get 17% in russian savings account?
Replies: 49
Views: 4454

Re: natural gas wall heater?

I would think the electric ignition would require power?

Please please buy a CO (carbon monoxide) detector. These things can kill-- bad installation or a fault develops.
by Valuethinker
Mon Jan 26, 2015 8:52 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: natural gas wall heater?
Replies: 16
Views: 1092

Re: Best short term investment options

livesoft wrote:What was a CD paying during the .com boom? … About 5% for a 1-year.


And tech stocks were doing +100% pa, and then they weren't ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best short term investment options
Replies: 11
Views: 677

Re: How to get things wrong - Swiss Franc (CHF)

It's an interesting contrast: the goal of the SNB is to bring the value of the CHF down and the goal of the CBR (Central Bank of Russia) is to bring the value of the Ruble up. I wonder if it provides an opportunity for arbitrage. Victoria YIKES! Currency arb = swimming with large hungry sharks. Wit...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 25, 2015 10:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to get things wrong - Swiss Franc (CHF)
Replies: 32
Views: 3546

Re: Hawaii Visit (Maui). Need advice

Rent a Ferrari for a day. $1500, but when will you ever have the chance to drive around in a Ferrari again? We attempted to rent a Porsche 911 on our honeymoon, but the 2 that the rental place had were in the body shop from previous renters excapades. Isn't Hawaii the perfect place to rent a Jeep? ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hawaii Visit (Maui). Need advice
Replies: 31
Views: 2432

Re: Best short term investment options

Hi all, I recently received a gift of about 75k that we are planning to use to buy a house in about 10-12 months. As such I'd like to invest this money safely. I was planning to put it into a savings account but with the terrible interest rates was wondering if bogleheads have any thoughts on the b...
by Valuethinker
Sun Jan 25, 2015 9:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best short term investment options
Replies: 11
Views: 677
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