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Re: TBM too much treasury?

There have been countless discussions here on that very topic! Plenty of opinions. Lots of old threads to look over. Here is one from last year that is still worth a look.

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=119783
by Tom_T
Thu Oct 16, 2014 11:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TBM too much treasury?
Replies: 62
Views: 3306

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Bustoff wrote:The 10 Yr is below 2%.

After all the anxiety over bond funds, who would have thunk. :oops:

Yes, but now that the rate is so low again, we can start a new round of threads about how rates can only go up from here, and how bond funds are going to lose money. It's spring 2013 all over again. :)
by Tom_T
Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 428
Views: 27746

Re: Treasury Bonds falling through the floor

This has been a bad year for bond market "experts".
by Tom_T
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds falling through the floor
Replies: 13
Views: 1392

Re: It's a good day to be heavy in REITs

Forget REITs. It's a good day to be heavy in bonds. ;)
by Tom_T
Wed Oct 15, 2014 8:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a good day to be heavy in REITs
Replies: 42
Views: 3957

Re: [unofficial Fed announcements make bond prices predictab

Though the Fed did not explicitly say they are raising interest rates, they indicate they will probably raise them. Except that we often get a Fed governor who likes to go "off the reservation" and issue his own statement. For example, the San Francisco Fed chief, John Williams, just told...
by Tom_T
Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [unofficial Fed announcements make bond prices predictable?]
Replies: 25
Views: 912

Re: It's a good day to be heavy in REITs

It's nice to boil down risk into a simple scale of 1-5, but that is oversimplification for the masses. A '4', according to Vanguard, means "moderate to aggressive funds." Isn't that a pretty broad category? Anything above that encompasses the riskiest funds they can imagine. An internation...
by Tom_T
Tue Oct 14, 2014 1:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a good day to be heavy in REITs
Replies: 42
Views: 3957

Re: Should your AA change based on World Events?

Related but different question. What if you are new to investing into International markets. Do you enter now and take a big haircut? Or just hope you caught the dip? Things change. Markets can look bad... until they look good. Following the herd... well, isn't that what gets investors into trouble...
by Tom_T
Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should your AA change based on World Events?
Replies: 22
Views: 1359

Re: need a new home page

I use my.yahoo.com. No photos. I customized it to show just a few sections: news, financial, sports. Each is in its own block, and has the top 7-8 items of the moment. That's it. It's a very clean page if you just want to see the main stories broken into categories.
by Tom_T
Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:04 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: need a new home page [browser default page]
Replies: 25
Views: 1844

Re: It's a good day to be heavy in REITs

This has been a good year for REITs so far. Last year, they got trounced by Total Stock Market (33% to 2%). Next year, who knows...

Besides, if you're not selling today, then the price doesn't mean anything.
by Tom_T
Tue Oct 14, 2014 10:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a good day to be heavy in REITs
Replies: 42
Views: 3957

Re: What Do You Keep In Your Bank Safe Deposit Box?

Keep in mind that although you may authorize other people to open your safe deposit box, if you die, those people can't necessarily run right down to the bank and remove all the contents.The box is considered to be part of the deceased's estate. Each state has different laws about this. Some states ...
by Tom_T
Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Do You Keep In Your Bank Safe Deposit Box?
Replies: 39
Views: 2550

Re: Market corrections and rebalancing band

A common band application is to rebalance only when your AA is off by +/- 5%. So if you have a 50/50 AA and it is in balance it requires a market correction of about ~10% to hit the lower band. But if you are just under the upper limit - say 54.9/45.1 - it requires nearly a 30% correction to reach ...
by Tom_T
Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market corrections and rebalancing band
Replies: 71
Views: 4041

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

There has been talk of a 10-15% correction for quite a while now. That's normal, right? If the Dow is at 17,000, that means you have to watch it lose 2,000 points. 300 points is just the first few steps.
by Tom_T
Fri Oct 10, 2014 12:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 428
Views: 27746

Re: Questioning our Bond Portfolio and TIPS Purchases?

asif408 wrote:hawkfan55,

FWIW, both total bond and VAIPX have dropped since mid-August.

VAIPX topped out in August, but Total Bond is right around its high for the year.
by Tom_T
Fri Oct 10, 2014 11:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questioning our Bond Portfolio and TIPS Purchases?
Replies: 6
Views: 727

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

EmergDoc wrote:Looks like we're down 4% from the peak. We were last here in....wait for it.....August 2014. The drops in January 2014 and in July 2014 were bigger. Don't remember those? You might not remember this one either.

You mean my paper gains from August are now gone? ;)
by Tom_T
Thu Oct 09, 2014 1:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 428
Views: 27746

Re: A good day to be in heavy in Bonds --- 10-7-2014....

There is nothing wrong with diversification. Vanguard Total Bond Market now has a better YTD return than Total Stock Market. Somehow, interest rates that had "nowhere to go but up" found somewhere else to go. Yesterday's action had little net effect on my portfolio.
by Tom_T
Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A good day to be in heavy in Bonds --- 10-7-2014....
Replies: 28
Views: 3388

Re: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket

You can also see that posters are emotionally invested in the forum itself. It's like they are a club that shares exclusive information, cheers each other on, lives the highs and lows together, and probably share with each other their dreams of wealth. Several posters, in the wake of this tragedy, ...
by Tom_T
Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When people put all their eggs in the wrong basket
Replies: 213
Views: 19706

Re: Bonds Beware

With stocks the saying I believe is buy when there is blood in the water or when the market has dropped off a cliff like 2008.With bonds on the other hand if the much talked about downturn finally happens and interest rates rise for a period if years,is there a point where you go all in with say th...
by Tom_T
Mon Oct 06, 2014 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Beware
Replies: 34
Views: 4410

Re: Should I add REIT/SCV?

On the other hand, many wise-heads here tilt to REIT and/or one of the small cap index and I wonder if I am missing on those extra returns if I don't go with it. There are plenty of non-tilters here. Some of them are "wise-heads", too! You are missing out on potential extra returns -- alo...
by Tom_T
Thu Oct 02, 2014 4:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I add REIT/SCV?
Replies: 10
Views: 719

Re: investing during market drop

What is your definition of a correction?
by Tom_T
Thu Oct 02, 2014 1:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: investing during market drop
Replies: 15
Views: 1151

Re: When should someone "not stay the course"?

On August 28, 2006, Vanguard's Total International Stock index was priced at $16.42 per share. On September 30, 2014, it was priced at $16.41 per share. That's almost 10 years of stagnation (or 8 years, 1 month, and 2 days to be exact). I know that I'm cherry picking the dates here, but if I invest...
by Tom_T
Tue Sep 30, 2014 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When should someone "not stay the course"?
Replies: 43
Views: 2550

Re: Southwest Airlines Engulfing, Reversal Candle Signals Do

I do find the technical analysis terminology hilarious. "Iron Cross Double Eagle", etc. Reminds me of the names of plays called in the huddle during high school football. Too bad it is no more effective an investment strategy than reading coffee grounds. Our plays consisted of "every...
by Tom_T
Mon Sep 22, 2014 2:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Southwest Airlines Engulfing, Reversal Candle Signals Downsi
Replies: 55
Views: 3452

Re: Basketball systems: In Ground or Portable?

I have a portable one that was filled with water. But, after several bad winters, the base began to leak. It is now empty. I have a few bags of sand sitting on top of the base. I wrapped the bags in heavy-duty black garbage bags to protect them from the elements. If I need to move the hoop, it's eas...
by Tom_T
Mon Sep 22, 2014 1:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Basketball systems: In Ground or Portable?
Replies: 16
Views: 902

Re: Blood work for cats

We have a FIV+ cat who is healthy, and she doesn't even get blood work. No way would I spend that kind of money on a healthy cat, even a "senior citizen" like yours.
by Tom_T
Sun Sep 21, 2014 8:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Blood work for cats
Replies: 40
Views: 2538

Re: The Roosevelts, PBS special

FYI, Doris Kearns Goodwin (a familiar face on any Ken Burns PBS project, including this one) wrote a wonderful book in 1995 called "No Ordinary Time: Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt: The Home Front in World War II". Well worth reading if you like all things Roosevelt. Lots of insight on the...
by Tom_T
Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Roosevelts, PBS special
Replies: 104
Views: 8511

Re: FIOS

I switched from Comcast to FiOS three years ago, and I would not go back. I don't know what the Comcast on-screen menus look like now, but at the time they looked simplistic and antiquated compared to FiOS -- particularly the DVR menu. FiOS speed is far better than what I had with Comcast. I just no...
by Tom_T
Fri Sep 12, 2014 3:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: FIOS [versus cable]
Replies: 28
Views: 2209

College-bound teens and finances

For those of you who have sent your teens off to college, or are planning to in the next year: what are your thoughts about setting up the basic financial mechanisms for them? Checking account (joint?) Debit card? Credit card (gulp)? I know there's a broader question in here about teaching your kids...
by Tom_T
Tue Sep 09, 2014 2:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College-bound teens and finances
Replies: 35
Views: 2530

Re: Second guessing the three fund portoflio

When the day comes that I see a defense of active management that doesn't come from an active manager, then maybe I'll pay attention.
by Tom_T
Thu Sep 04, 2014 3:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Second guessing the three fund portoflio
Replies: 14
Views: 907

Re: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?

I owned and sold 93 shares of Apple @ $15/share ... back around 2003?... which was before a 2:1 and a 7:1 split. :oops: I feel your pain. In 1983, when I was in graduate school, we had to write reports on Apple. The stock price was around $60; split-adjusted, around $8. I had thought about buying s...
by Tom_T
Mon Aug 18, 2014 2:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your biggest "Missed Money" event that still kills you?
Replies: 102
Views: 8349

Teaching teen to drive

For those of you who have already done this: how did you teach your teenager to drive? My son (just turned 16) wants to sign up with a driving school that is popular with many of his high school friends. The school's lessons consist of three two-hour sessions. That doesn't seem like a lot to me. I s...
by Tom_T
Fri Aug 15, 2014 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Teaching teen to drive
Replies: 31
Views: 1454

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

dognose wrote:Look on the bright side. It's now been several days since we've seen a new thread asking "Why not 100 percent equities?"

:)

And some people are still worried about their bond funds, as if those were the volatile assets that could sink their portfolios.
by Tom_T
Wed Aug 06, 2014 8:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 941
Views: 156288

Re: Short term vs Intermediate term bond funds

There are approximately a zillion threads on that very topic. :)

Here's one...

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=129443&p=2095041#p2095041
by Tom_T
Tue Aug 05, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short term vs Intermediate term bond funds
Replies: 27
Views: 2672

Re: state income tax withheld from IRA distribution?

O.k., folks. Vanguard made a carefully decision to withhold state taxes only when required by law. It is expensive to have to collect and file taxes with states. It's one way to hold down the cost. If tax withholding is important to you, you may want to transfer your money elsewhere. It's hard to h...
by Tom_T
Thu Jul 31, 2014 11:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: state income tax withheld from IRA distribution?
Replies: 44
Views: 2042

Re: Afraid of Bonds

Keep in mind that if equities go through a correction, you might see bond prices rise as investors look for safety.
by Tom_T
Sat Jul 26, 2014 12:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Afraid of Bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 2355

Re: Do I Need REIT's?

You might find this recent thread to be helpful.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=142648

Edited to add: And this one, too!

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=143020
by Tom_T
Wed Jul 16, 2014 1:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I Need REIT's?
Replies: 1
Views: 413

Re: POLL: Do you have a dedicated REIT allocation?

Show me a guy with a 5% or 10% REIT allocation, and I'll show you someone who's read a couple of dated investing books, [OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek] . Not only will such a small allocation make no expected difference to your returns, the experts who did suggest such a bet were doing so wh...
by Tom_T
Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: Do you have a dedicated REIT allocation?
Replies: 123
Views: 7784

Re: Amazon prime - how to get the best out of it?

Probably not going to resubscribe to prime. I don't care about the price increase, but they've almost completely stopped using UPS. Now it's USPS and some other cheap services like Lasership. They almost never deliver within 2 business days, and they sometimes deliver to the wrong mailbox. There ar...
by Tom_T
Thu Jul 10, 2014 9:56 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon prime - how to get the best out of it?
Replies: 48
Views: 5311

Re: Toys for a Lazy Cat

I wonder if this varies by vet; mine said that wet food is worse, and has higher calories and is bad for the teeth. He asked that we go on a full dry food diet, but my cat loves it too much. We ended up cutting his wet food intake by half going from the 5.5 oz cans to the 2.75 oz ones. Find a new v...
by Tom_T
Wed Jul 09, 2014 8:31 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Toys for a Lazy Cat
Replies: 46
Views: 3120

Re: stocks about to plunge

The most entertaining thing I read today was from a poster on another board who has been predicting a big correction for the past two years. Despite being wrong at every turn, he remains undaunted: "eventually I will be right." He just doesn't know when. ;)
by Tom_T
Tue Jul 08, 2014 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stocks about to plunge
Replies: 39
Views: 8033

Re: Cash allocation in a portfolio

There is an article in today WSJ (7/7) highlighting some mutual funds whose managers decided to go very big (> 50%) into cash a year or two ago. Naturally, those funds are at the bottom of the rankings. And, not surprisingly, the managers feel that their decision will be vindicated someday. No word ...
by Tom_T
Mon Jul 07, 2014 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash allocation in a portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3850

Re: Eneloop batteries in smoke detectors

OK....convinced. Maxell alkaline batteries in smoke detectors. About $15 for 48 batteries on Amazon. The smoke detectors are a hassle because they take 3 batteries each and go dead at unpredictable times. What sort of smoke detector takes 3 batteries? Would I be correct in assuming that these are 9...
by Tom_T
Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Eneloop batteries in smoke detectors
Replies: 36
Views: 1919

Re: American Automobile Assn (AAA)

Maybe I will reconsider. Re: the three-mile-tow plan, what happens if you are driving through the country and you are several miles away from the nearest garage? Do you still get a tow, and you pay extra?
by Tom_T
Sun Jun 22, 2014 8:04 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: American Automobile Assn (AAA)
Replies: 51
Views: 3592

Re: American Automobile Assn (AAA)

I dumped AAA last year. There are other avenues to get emergency service. I was also getting tired of the membership fee being hiked every year to pay for all those "benefits" that I never use. $170/year for me and my wife? No, thanks. $170 per year? Did you have the long distance towing ...
by Tom_T
Fri Jun 20, 2014 10:01 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: American Automobile Assn (AAA)
Replies: 51
Views: 3592

Re: American Automobile Assn (AAA)

I dumped AAA last year. There are other avenues to get emergency service. I was also getting tired of the membership fee being hiked every year to pay for all those "benefits" that I never use. $170/year for me and my wife? No, thanks.
by Tom_T
Fri Jun 20, 2014 9:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: American Automobile Assn (AAA)
Replies: 51
Views: 3592

Re: Bond allocation / Bond fund handwringing

LongerPrimer wrote:I've been holding 10-20% cash instead of bonds since 2008-09.

Have you calculated how much money this decision has cost you?
by Tom_T
Thu Jun 19, 2014 11:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond allocation / Bond fund handwringing
Replies: 23
Views: 2743

Re: If chasing market performance is bad...

What people fail to understand is that by the time you hear about something on the news, it has already been digested by the market. And apparently, a militant takeover of a refinery has elicited a collective shrug.
by Tom_T
Thu Jun 19, 2014 11:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If chasing market performance is bad...
Replies: 85
Views: 4964

Re: what to do about bond investing if worried

Hang on -- I think the author is being sarcastic: One of the new fund offerings are alternative or “unconstrained” bond funds. These funds allow the managers to buy almost anything they fancy. The idea is that they can still time the market and predict interest rates, they just need the right tools ...
by Tom_T
Thu Jun 19, 2014 9:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what to do about bond investing if worried
Replies: 15
Views: 1148

Re: Market Timing Predictions Thread

A better use of this thread would be to include a list of links to all of the posts that start "With the markets at an all-time high, a correction has to happen soon". Then one can easily point to this thread for every future comment that starts that way to show how many times people made...
by Tom_T
Wed Jun 18, 2014 9:49 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing Predictions Thread
Replies: 30
Views: 1932

Re: bridge loan

Try Publication 590 on the IRS site, under the heading Rollover From One IRA Into Another. You can definitely do a rollover in more than IRA account if you follow the 60-day rule. But, as I said, not in 2015.
by Tom_T
Mon Jun 16, 2014 2:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bridge loan
Replies: 6
Views: 535

Re: bridge loan

My understanding is that you can do another rollover. But don't wait too long. The IRS has changed the rules. Starting in 2015, you can only do one rollover a year regardless of how many IRAs you own. You would not be able to tap two different IRA accounts and use the 60-day rule.
by Tom_T
Mon Jun 16, 2014 12:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bridge loan
Replies: 6
Views: 535
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