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Re: Assett allocation market timing strategy inspired by Joh

Consider how this approach to US equity will relate to the valuation of the rest of your portfolio. For emaple: - if bond yields are also low, then they also have lower expected return and higher risk than normal. Do you want to shift more to bonds? You might, as a way to reduce equity risk, but so...
by Tigermoose
Tue Sep 30, 2014 5:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 16
Views: 853

Re: Bogleheads, help me be less afraid of international stoc

Exactly why I only have 12% of my portfolio in international equities. It's a sleep well at night thing.
by Tigermoose
Tue Sep 30, 2014 5:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads, help me be less afraid of international stocks
Replies: 36
Views: 1663

Re: Assett allocation market timing strategy inspired by Joh

I've been considering the following DAA: 15% when PE>15, 25% when PE<15, for both US and Ex-US respectively. Thus total equity allocation always between 30 and 50 %. So currently would be at 15% US and 25% International. 1. Today, S&P 500 PE 15 is the historical mean/median, for all practical p...
by Tigermoose
Tue Sep 30, 2014 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 16
Views: 853

Re: Assett allocation market timing strategy inspired by Joh

...I am thinking about adding the following directive to my IPS. But I first wanted to run it by the Bogleheads to get your take. If S&P PE Ratio goes above 30, then scale back stock allocation 5%, at 35, scale back another 10%, at 40, scale back another 10%, and so on… Rule for increasing stoc...
by Tigermoose
Tue Sep 30, 2014 3:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 16
Views: 853

Re: US REITs: An Expanding Market

^ Agreed. REITs have been great when cheap (1999,2008) compared to the market. They were essentially value stocks. When they inevitably become cheap again, I would consider adding a slice to my portfolio. What's a good measurement for determining if a REIT is a good buy? I have heard that Price to ...
by Tigermoose
Tue Sep 30, 2014 11:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US REITs: An Expanding Market
Replies: 3
Views: 596

Re: Assett allocation market timing strategy inspired by Joh

Those who use such methods don't like to call this Market Timing, rather Dynamic Asset Allocation! Time does not enter the equation but valuations do. For most investors in accumulation static AA is fine, riding out the market cycle waves rebalancing. For those approaching or in retirement, the pos...
by Tigermoose
Tue Sep 30, 2014 11:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 16
Views: 853

Re: Assett allocation market timing strategy inspired by Joh

Well, if you want to do this then you need to think about what set of earnings you want to use to calculate PE. There are forecasted earnings and then there is TTM (Twelve Trailing Months) which is historical. It's a way to mitigate risk but not necessarily add more return over time. I use somethin...
by Tigermoose
Tue Sep 30, 2014 10:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 16
Views: 853

Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B

Just watched this video of Jack Bogle, where he recommends scaling back stocks when the P/E ratio gets ridiculously high as it was in 2000 or 2007: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6ra5POdsYg Inspired by this, I am thinking about adding the following directive to my IPS. But I first wanted to run it...
by Tigermoose
Tue Sep 30, 2014 10:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 16
Views: 853

Re: How can I stop feeling depressed about my finances?

Your standard of living is probably higher than that of the emperors of Rome. Cheer up :beer
by Tigermoose
Mon Sep 29, 2014 3:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How can I stop feeling depressed about my finances?
Replies: 93
Views: 5937

Re: Protection from a market crash

In the upper left of the page there is a "New to Investing" section that you should start at.
by Tigermoose
Mon Sep 29, 2014 1:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Protection from a market crash
Replies: 17
Views: 1425

Re: Protection from a market crash

You have luckily stumbled upon a site that can make a huge difference in your net worth and quality of life. I would advise you to get educated on the Boglehead way of investing and I think you will count yourself lucky to have found it. There is a lot of trash on the internet, but this site is a di...
by Tigermoose
Mon Sep 29, 2014 1:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Protection from a market crash
Replies: 17
Views: 1425

Re: Protection from a market crash

If you were to pick a Vanguard Fund to switch to prior to a market crash, which would it (or they) be? This is market timing. It has been shown repeatedly not to work. We are pretty much destined for a market sell-off sometime in the next 1-6 months. So if someone were to put their assets in a safe...
by Tigermoose
Mon Sep 29, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Protection from a market crash
Replies: 17
Views: 1425

Re: Protection from a market crash

High quality treasury bonds and/or a Stable Value Fund in your 401k are the best assets to have. If the market crashes, the price movements will cause you to rebalance your asset to re-meet the asset allocation specified in your Investment Policy Statement (IPS) that you created prior to the crash (...
by Tigermoose
Mon Sep 29, 2014 12:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Protection from a market crash
Replies: 17
Views: 1425

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

Aha! So now you see the wisdom of a glidepath! Yep. Setting up a glide path helps you to take more equity risk earlier in your investing lifetime and slowly taper it down as you get closer to retirement. That said, you might want to wait for a 5-10% correction in the stock market before readjusting...
by Tigermoose
Sat Sep 27, 2014 7:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 70
Views: 3883

Re: Indoor rowing machine - worth it?

Lots of excellent advice on this thread. My goal is overall fitness - cardiovascular, functional strength (not looking for bulging muscles) and flexibility. I used to run regularly till about a year ago (about 10 miles / week). I've also done one round of p90x couple years ago. With a new baby, I d...
by Tigermoose
Wed Sep 24, 2014 3:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Indoor rowing machine - worth it?
Replies: 48
Views: 1908

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

Oh dear lord. I hope you are not suggesting using data mining of past data to determine the right asset allocation %? People should be investing moving forward and NOT backwards by looking at a rearview mirror. The lack of understanding of this simple concept has led many an investor to ruin. It is...
by Tigermoose
Wed Sep 24, 2014 12:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 56
Views: 4015

Re: Indoor rowing machine - worth it?

I'd disagree in general with this otherwise reasonable sounding advice. Most aerobic activities provide enough strength-related building to improve quality of life for otherwise sedentary folks, while combating one of the biggest life-threatening risk of older age, which is cardiovascular disease. ...
by Tigermoose
Wed Sep 24, 2014 12:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Indoor rowing machine - worth it?
Replies: 48
Views: 1908

Re: Indoor rowing machine - worth it?

Given that the OP "stumbled upon indoor rowing machines", I'll venture that the OP is not very experienced with physical training. Further, since OP is concerned with "bang" for buck (both money and time), I would strongly suggest that she or he first pursue an intelligent, prog...
by Tigermoose
Wed Sep 24, 2014 12:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Indoor rowing machine - worth it?
Replies: 48
Views: 1908

Re: Indoor rowing machine - worth it?

Best novice workout. I'll save you the expense of a personal trainer. Monday: Barbell squat, overhead press Tuesday: High intensity cardio (Rower would work) Wednesday: Barbell Deadlifts, chin-ups Thursday: High Intensity cardio (Rower would work) Friday: Barbell bench press, barbell cleans Sat &...
by Tigermoose
Wed Sep 24, 2014 11:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Indoor rowing machine - worth it?
Replies: 48
Views: 1908

Re: What's Your Takeaway from 2014 High Valuation

I just rebalance twice a year. In January and July I ended up selling some equities and REITS and buying SVF, Commodities futures, and some mining stocks. Not much of a takeaway. I'm just following my IPS -- which ends up making me sell things that are relatively high and buying things that are rela...
by Tigermoose
Wed Sep 24, 2014 11:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your Takeaway from 2014 High Valuation
Replies: 52
Views: 4046

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

past performance is no guarantee of future results

I would be more inclined to listen to your arguments if commodities and gold were not presently an under-performing asset class.
by Tigermoose
Mon Sep 22, 2014 8:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 56
Views: 4015

Re: Buy PCRIX today?

Just one question...if you are holding commodities as an inflation hedge, why not just hold TIPS? I know they are apples and oranges but if your primary purpose is to hold them as an inflation hedge, TIPS seem to be better. If you are holding them for other reasons, what are they? Diversification. ...
by Tigermoose
Mon Sep 22, 2014 12:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy PCRIX today?
Replies: 31
Views: 2607

Re: Buy PCRIX today?

Tigermoose - I assume with new money at the beginning of the year? So you have no issues if prices were to go up and you missed a reblancing point solely based on the calendar? I just rebalance twice a year, once in January and once in July. The idea is to keep me from obsessing and constantly revi...
by Tigermoose
Mon Sep 22, 2014 11:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy PCRIX today?
Replies: 31
Views: 2607

Re: Buy PCRIX today?

I say that you should stick to your plan and rebalance. If things continue as they are, I will be buying some DBC in January.
by Tigermoose
Fri Sep 19, 2014 12:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy PCRIX today?
Replies: 31
Views: 2607

Re: Angry when stock market is down

Did you recently buy REITS before they just went down?
by Tigermoose
Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Angry when stock market is down
Replies: 79
Views: 4162

Re: I've never been a fan of commodity funds

Looks like a good time to buy. :sharebeer Oversupply means a cutback in production. A cutback in production will most likely lead to undersupply in the future - which should cause commodities to rise. So. Looks like a good time to buy. :beer
by Tigermoose
Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I've never been a fan of commodity funds
Replies: 28
Views: 2310

Re: Why did REITs drop today?

I, for one, am outraged. I only include REITS for the diversification as defined by going up when the S&P goes down. This behavior is outrageous!
by Tigermoose
Thu Sep 11, 2014 10:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did REITs drop today?
Replies: 26
Views: 4111

Re: The importance of discipline

Thanks Larry, Nisi, and Browser. I always enjoy your posts and benefit from your combined wisdom.
by Tigermoose
Mon Sep 08, 2014 11:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The importance of discipline
Replies: 19
Views: 1368

Re: Why does the stock market "always go up"? Will this pers

My intuition says that perpetual growth isn't sustainable, that eventually, we'd hit a "cap". So I'm still a noob here - what is wrong with this logic? It's hard to say. Most of our historical trends were impacted hugely by the Great Depression, WW1 and WW2. If the world manages to contin...
by Tigermoose
Mon Sep 08, 2014 11:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market "always go up"? Will this persist?
Replies: 42
Views: 3842

Re: International Investing and the USD

avalpert wrote:
Tigermoose wrote: But I've been informed here that currency risk isn't really a risk. :confused

By whom and in what context?



Here's a thread:

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=142178
by Tigermoose
Fri Sep 05, 2014 1:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Investing and the USD
Replies: 12
Views: 679

Re: Help: do I need to transfer out of this SVF ?

I have a novel idea... Why don't you ask the plan administrator or your MetLife representative what the ramifications really are? I don't think any of us have the documents necessary to give you cogent advice. I was hoping someone here has had experience with this. I suppose I could try contacting ...
by Tigermoose
Fri Sep 05, 2014 12:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help: do I need to transfer out of this SVF ?
Replies: 9
Views: 621

Re: Pax Romana

I enjoyed this post OP. Thanks. I think Pickety says in his book Capitalism in the 21st century, that slow long term growth leads to a higher concentration of wealth by capitalists rather than labor. And as the amount of capital rises, the expected returns decrease. So as long as we live in the Pax ...
by Tigermoose
Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pax Romana
Replies: 2
Views: 987

Re: International Investing and the USD

The "coincidence" raises the question....when investing unhedged in international equitiies, how much of gamble is one taking on currency valuation rather than just broadly diversifying in international companies...
by Tigermoose
Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Investing and the USD
Replies: 12
Views: 679

Re: International Investing and the USD

Yes, this should be interesting to watch if the US Dollar continues to strengthen and the international equity appreciation does not meet or exceed the loss due to currency risk. But I've been informed here that currency risk isn't really a risk. :confused
by Tigermoose
Thu Sep 04, 2014 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Investing and the USD
Replies: 12
Views: 679

Re: Second guessing the three fund portoflio

In the past, actively managed funds have not avoided bear markets any better than a passive index. And they charge you a higher expense ratio for the illusion that they are going to do something special next time to help you avoid losing money.
by Tigermoose
Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Second guessing the three fund portoflio
Replies: 14
Views: 895

Help: do I need to transfer out of this SVF ?

My company is going to convert from our current insurance company 401k provider to Fidelity at the beginning of next year. While looking at the fine print for the SVF I have some money in, i see the following: " Upon discontinuance of the annuity by your employer , distributions from the fixed ...
by Tigermoose
Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help: do I need to transfer out of this SVF ?
Replies: 9
Views: 621

Re: frontier markets

How does this ETF look?

BBRC - Beyond BRICs ETF
by Tigermoose
Wed Sep 03, 2014 9:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: frontier markets
Replies: 15
Views: 1190

Re: Why invest in bonds?

Having bonds and other cash-like assets is essential for re-balancing. I want to hold fixed income so that when the market crashes, I have appreciating assets that can be sold in order to buy equities.
by Tigermoose
Mon Sep 01, 2014 7:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in bonds?
Replies: 103
Views: 6315

Re: Anyone used Vanguard Flagship Services With Portfolio $1

Last tax season when using the free turbotax through Vanguard, I was able to use some of my tax refund as Amazon credit, and in so doing so was given a 10% bonus on that money. Did everyone get this perk? Or was it because we qualify for the Flagship service?
by Tigermoose
Sat Aug 30, 2014 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone used Vanguard Flagship Services With Portfolio $1M+
Replies: 41
Views: 4331

Re: The Power of Zero: Controversial New Book About Taxes

Wouldn't politicians rather choose the hidden tax method -- i.e. inflation -- rather than outright taxes? That seems rather more likely to me.
by Tigermoose
Sat Aug 30, 2014 8:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Zero: [Book and tax planning for retirement]
Replies: 52
Views: 5335

Re: Bond Bubble?

I'm still waiting to see what happens if the Fed ever tries to shrink its balance sheet, even if by just letting the bonds mature. Yea. I watched Martenson's crash course video on Quantitative Easing, and he makes the mistake (intentionally?) of saying the Fed will have to try and sell its bonds on...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 3:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Bubble?
Replies: 10
Views: 919

Re: Bond Bubble?

That said, I keep the majority of my fixed income in a Stable Value Fund and the few treasuries I have are in the Vanguard Total Bond Market and TIPs. I see no reason to change that up until rates go up and the yield from intermediate treasures exceeds the yield I receive from my SVF.
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Bubble?
Replies: 10
Views: 919

Re: Which book to start with?

Sign up for the 30 day free trial of Kindle Unlimited on Amazon. Read William Bernstein's "Investing for Adults" books for free. Volumes 1-4.
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 2:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which book to start with?
Replies: 6
Views: 321

Re: Bond Bubble?

The author is Chris Martenson, who is always talking up peak this, peak that, bubble this, bubble that. His predictions have pretty much all failed. He is a doom and gloomer.
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 2:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Bubble?
Replies: 10
Views: 919

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Just to offer a concrete example of what a "low-return" future looks like, the table below shows William Bernstein's estimates for expected annual real returns of major asset classes over the next 10 years (from his book, Rational Expectations , published May 2014). These estimates are mo...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 11:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 189
Views: 12283

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Just to offer a concrete example of what a "low-return" future looks like, the table below shows William Bernstein's estimates for expected annual real returns of major asset classes over the next 10 years (from his book, Rational Expectations , published May 2014). These estimates are mo...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 11:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 189
Views: 12283

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Innovation? We have only seen the beginning. We have just put through the largest group of young people in the history of the world through college. We have people like Elon Musk developing ideas like the "Hyperloop" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop If you read this, you will notice ...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 11:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 189
Views: 12283
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