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Re: Possibility of financial markets breakdown / transformat

I'm paying down my mortgage to avoid the risk of losing my house if I lose my job and there is a financial collapse/depression of some sort. There are other reasons for paying down my mortgage, but this is one consideration.
by Tigermoose
Fri Oct 31, 2014 11:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possibility of financial markets breakdown / transformation?
Replies: 14
Views: 1327

Re: RBD for Gold Miners

This is why you earn a risk premium for Staying the Course.
by Tigermoose
Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD for Gold Miners
Replies: 11
Views: 1124

Re: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?

If you want to buy portfolio insurance, this might be the time to do it as prices have declined. The best time to buy asset classes is when they are being relentlessly trashed. If you are interested in commodities as portfolio insurance, it also is time to start looking into these. Contrary thinkin...
by Tigermoose
Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?
Replies: 66
Views: 8608

Re: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed

The key thing to understand is that Bogleheads make money off of the earnings provided by U. S. and international companies. We are NOT engaged in the greater fool speculation that your article writer thinks is the key to making money in the stock market.
by Tigermoose
Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed
Replies: 52
Views: 5200

Re: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed

Investing in stocks means that you are invested in businesses that are making profits. As long as companies earn money and then distribute those earnings through dividends and stock buybacks, then you can count on making money off of stocks. By continually rebalancing and purchasing stocks at regula...
by Tigermoose
Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed
Replies: 52
Views: 5200

Re: How should we invest if interest rates never go up?

couple things, first ignore rate forecasts --100% of economists were wrong about rates this year and most have been wrong for many years. Stay disciplined and take advantage of term premiums, especially when curve is steep--that is when term risk has been best rewarded And as noted, have to lower e...
by Tigermoose
Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How should we invest if interest rates never go up?
Replies: 17
Views: 1715

Re: Any contrarians for commodity futures?

I use DBC to add some unexpected inflation protection, especially as relates to supply side shocks. Eventually I hope to add some more intermediate bonds that will hopefully negatively correlate with this commodities futures fund. I'm waiting for QE to end and the Fed funds rate to "normalize&q...
by Tigermoose
Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any contrarians for commodity futures?
Replies: 6
Views: 470

Re: Take the plunge on long term treasuries vs. market timin

The following scenario would not be favorable for LTT. Inflation outpaces growth without any major crashes or recessions. As investors' fears of deflation are replaced by fears of inflation, you will lose a significant amount of value from your LTT. The negative correlation of LTT with equities goes...
by Tigermoose
Mon Oct 27, 2014 11:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Take the plunge on long term treasuries vs. market timing?
Replies: 7
Views: 996

Re: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?

Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund (VGPMX) is extremely volatile, one year the best performing fund at Vanguard, a few years later the worst. Hardly a "dog". We used this fund for 7 1/2 years, did make money on it with a good return above the S&P 500, but recently sold out becau...
by Tigermoose
Sun Oct 26, 2014 6:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?
Replies: 66
Views: 8608

Re: Prediction: Rise of Concentrated Funds

I'll stick with the $&P 500.
by Tigermoose
Fri Oct 24, 2014 11:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prediction: Rise of Concentrated Funds
Replies: 20
Views: 1749

Re: How to buy oil in the stock market?

You can buy futures in DBC. For oil in stocks, you would purchase an energy fund of some sort.
by Tigermoose
Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to buy oil in the stock market?
Replies: 32
Views: 2054

Re: Bogle and dry powder

I just figured he meant that you would need something to sell to purchase stocks when they have crashed. But you say below that he does not advocate rebalancing, so who knows. For me, dry powder means something I can sell after a market crash/correction that will enable me to get my AA back to where...
by Tigermoose
Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle and dry powder
Replies: 29
Views: 4948

Re: Why I won't have bond funds

I've been reading Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run the last couple of days... Siegel makes the case that there is a current high demand for bonds currently because people fear deflation (crashes) more than the fear inflation. US Government treasuries have a "safe haven" status that is maki...
by Tigermoose
Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I won't have bond funds
Replies: 54
Views: 7988

Re: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren

I buy a lot of the S&P 500 index because it is available in my 401ks. The TSM is not. I'm sure this is the case for a lot of investors.
by Tigermoose
Wed Oct 22, 2014 4:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren
Replies: 47
Views: 3271

Re: Why I won't have bond funds

And I don't share her pessimism about the junk bonds. Junk bonds are actually less vulnerable to interest rate risk than safer, lower-yield bonds. What makes them risky is not the interest rate risk, but the credit risk. . The author was talking about liquidity risk, I believe, as a rather big prob...
by Tigermoose
Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I won't have bond funds
Replies: 54
Views: 7988

Re: Alternative Investments!

I would recommend reading Larry Swedroe's The Only Guide to Alternative Investments You'll Ever Need: The Good, the Flawed, the Bad, and the Ugly http://www.amazon.com/Only-Guide-Alternative-Investments-Youll/dp/1576603105/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1413830567&sr=8-1&keywords=Larry+Swedroe+a...
by Tigermoose
Mon Oct 20, 2014 2:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative Investments!
Replies: 5
Views: 493

Re: "I've had it" at work - how often

Never. However, other people in the same role on the same team felt that way and left the company. I think a lot of it has to do with the individual's temperament. Also, I do not do a lot of gossiping and complaining with my peers; it just drags you down.
by Tigermoose
Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:17 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "I've had it" at work - how often
Replies: 151
Views: 12476

Re: Re-entering market - all at once, or over time?

There's always something going wrong in the world, and with today's media, you can be sure that you will hear about it constantly.

I think investing in 4 different installments would be just fine if that helps alleviate your concerns of going in all at once.
by Tigermoose
Thu Oct 16, 2014 3:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Re-entering market - all at once, or over time?
Replies: 13
Views: 928

Re: investing in bear market

The point of this thread isn't to debate a bear market. Anyone can call a market by any name they choose. I hope its not one! My question was more on the relative risks/rewards of how to allocate new investments vs yearly rebalancing. If you are investing with taxable accounts, you would definitely...
by Tigermoose
Thu Oct 16, 2014 10:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: investing in bear market
Replies: 29
Views: 2254

Re: Dealing with Volatility

Sir John Templeton: "The four most expensive words in the English language are "this time it’s different.""
by Tigermoose
Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dealing with Volatility
Replies: 14
Views: 1126

Re: Hold My Hand - I Am Rebalancing

Imdeng wrote:My rebalance will execute today - so it is a bit of fortunate timing that bond yields are tumbling today and stocks are down as well. At least I chose a good day to rebalance :D


Maybe. Or stocks could drop another 10% over the next several weeks. :oops:
by Tigermoose
Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hold My Hand - I Am Rebalancing
Replies: 20
Views: 1260

Re: Masters in business interview I did with Barry Ritholtz

I enjoyed this as well. I listened in on the Bloomberg radio app which included the extra podcast interview.
by Tigermoose
Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Masters in business interview I did with Barry Ritholtz
Replies: 13
Views: 1228

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

This is exciting. At this rate, I might actually be able to buy some stocks in January when I rebalance!
by Tigermoose
Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 445
Views: 30551

Re: Why Are Expected Investment Returns So Low?

It might be that the global companies from developed countries end up profiting the most by extracting capital from the developing countries and distributing that capital to shareholders in the developed world.
by Tigermoose
Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are Expected Investment Returns So Low?
Replies: 13
Views: 1686

Re: investing in bear market

Invest the monthly savings money into stocks until you are at your 60/40 AA. If the stock market plummets, you still might need to rebalance with existing investments.
by Tigermoose
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: investing in bear market
Replies: 29
Views: 2254

Re: Hold My Hand - I Am Rebalancing

If it helps you sleep at night and satisfies your itch, there is no harm rebalancing quarterly as long as the assets are transaction and tax cost free (such as mutual funds in 401ks and IRAs).
by Tigermoose
Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hold My Hand - I Am Rebalancing
Replies: 20
Views: 1260

Re: Siren song of increased stock allocation

Nope. My stock allocations are down about 1% and bonds up about 1%, but I don't rebalance until January according to my IPS.
by Tigermoose
Tue Oct 14, 2014 3:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Siren song of increased stock allocation
Replies: 38
Views: 2903

Re: Looming Corporate Bond Crash?

My retirement AA is 80% stocks. I'm not really worried about bonds in my retirement portfolio. I'm wondering if I'm taking too much risk in my emergency fund / savings. I think it largely depends how stable your job is. If it is unstable, then I would lower my credit risk. If it is very stable, I t...
by Tigermoose
Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looming Corporate Bond Crash?
Replies: 4
Views: 593

Re: Looming Corporate Bond Crash?

If you are in or nearing retirement, you are fine having a large % of your fixed income portfolio with investment grade corporates. If you are young or under 45, you would probably want to be more in treasuries and increase your equities for more return.
by Tigermoose
Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looming Corporate Bond Crash?
Replies: 4
Views: 593

Re: Dashlane App - Recommened or Not?

I love Dashlane. I highly recommend it.
by Tigermoose
Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dashlane App - Recommened or Not?
Replies: 4
Views: 371

Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

I would suggest mining stocks (VGPMX) and commodities are cheap, but what do I know.
by Tigermoose
Fri Oct 10, 2014 3:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is anything 'cheap' out there?
Replies: 54
Views: 5582

Re: Large Inheritance - Need Advice

Here are some things to consider. I agree with other posters that you absolutely need to find the time to educate yourself properly. It is well worth it. You have children. Invest up to the maximum tax benefit amount in a 529 College Savings plan each year (around 15-16k?). Choose an investment opti...
by Tigermoose
Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large Inheritance - Need Advice
Replies: 28
Views: 3509

Re: Sump Pump Running Every 8 Minutes?

Perhaps your sump pump is shooting the water out of your house into some soil that sits in such a way that the water just then drains back into your basement and thus causing the pump to continually run? Also, your gutter down spouts might be emptying the water right into soil that is just draining ...
by Tigermoose
Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sump Pump Running Every 8 Minutes?
Replies: 18
Views: 1359

Re: Estimating Future Investment Returns — On a Napkin

I look at stock return as a combination of "real" return based on dividend payout and stock buybacks, and behavioral return based on greed and fear. I think the OP was focusing on estimating a "real" return, and grayfox was focusing on the wide distribution of probabilities large...
by Tigermoose
Sun Oct 05, 2014 8:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Estimating Future Investment Returns — On a Napkin
Replies: 75
Views: 4808

Re: Estimating Future Investment Returns — On a Napkin

Thanks! So if I have the time horizon and emotional discipline, it is fairly clear that most of my assets should be in stocks at the present time. 5 > .5 Or is that just a little too simplistic?
by Tigermoose
Fri Oct 03, 2014 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Estimating Future Investment Returns — On a Napkin
Replies: 75
Views: 4808

Re: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too

Thanks Bill for reminding us that investing is a disciplined long term enterprise.
by Tigermoose
Fri Oct 03, 2014 12:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I sold my gold, and would sell commodities too
Replies: 71
Views: 5386

Re: final tweaks to my allocation

Awesome job! Congrats. :sharebeer
by Tigermoose
Thu Oct 02, 2014 10:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: final tweaks to my allocation
Replies: 11
Views: 463

Re: Assett allocation market timing strategy inspired by Joh

I am OK keeping my glide path asset allocations in place during normal times, but look at the immense abnormal spikes post 2000. That is what I am trying to avoid. It looks to me that 30 is a good point between normal times and manias. It might not be perfect, but it is a benchmark that can be used...
by Tigermoose
Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 43
Views: 3253

Re: Assett allocation market timing strategy inspired by Joh

Anyone looking to *tactically allocate* using PE, should have a benchmark, I believe. • Why is PE 30 a benchmark for "extreme of high valuation," while PE 28 or PE 25 are not? • Even PE 22 at 50% above mean/median, why is it not a high valuation? • PE 15 = 1.0x (mean/median - a great (goo...
by Tigermoose
Wed Oct 01, 2014 3:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 43
Views: 3253

Re: Assett allocation market timing strategy inspired by Joh

In a subsequent post, I included a table (you chose to snip it) - purely a math exercise that would make more sense to ME than taking numbers out of thin air. Sounds good for you. Feel free to use that theory. I am not interested in a rule that covers all ranges of PE -- just the extremes of high v...
by Tigermoose
Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 43
Views: 3253

Re: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John

But timing moves should be made only when an investor sees these things at extreme levels. Even then, do it at the margins. Don't sell all your stocks. Don't lock yourself into mechanical strategies because each market situation is unique. Rules that are designed to work to protect against a 2000-2...
by Tigermoose
Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 43
Views: 3253

Re: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John

Seems to me that significant changes in pe will be accompanied by significant changes in AA percentages. Rebalancing back to target risk should cover most of this unless the discussion is an amount of overcompensation. Yes. This would be overbalancing for the sake of reducing equity risk in times o...
by Tigermoose
Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 43
Views: 3253

Re: Advice for a young/new investor

Instead of buying any bonds, I would suggest paying off the car loan at 3.4% interest. The rest can go into stocks in a Roth IRA through Vanguard. I I would concentrate on getting to $10,000 in VTSMX (Vanguard Total Stock Market), and then after that you can invest some in International. Continue to...
by Tigermoose
Wed Oct 01, 2014 11:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for a young/new investor
Replies: 12
Views: 851

Re: Assett allocation market timing strategy inspired by Joh

Consider how this approach to US equity will relate to the valuation of the rest of your portfolio. For emaple: - if bond yields are also low, then they also have lower expected return and higher risk than normal. Do you want to shift more to bonds? You might, as a way to reduce equity risk, but so...
by Tigermoose
Tue Sep 30, 2014 5:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 43
Views: 3253

Re: Bogleheads, help me be less afraid of international stoc

Exactly why I only have 12% of my portfolio in international equities. It's a sleep well at night thing.
by Tigermoose
Tue Sep 30, 2014 5:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads, help me be less afraid of international stocks
Replies: 53
Views: 3732

Re: Assett allocation market timing strategy inspired by Joh

I've been considering the following DAA: 15% when PE>15, 25% when PE<15, for both US and Ex-US respectively. Thus total equity allocation always between 30 and 50 %. So currently would be at 15% US and 25% International. 1. Today, S&P 500 PE 15 is the historical mean/median, for all practical p...
by Tigermoose
Tue Sep 30, 2014 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 43
Views: 3253

Re: Assett allocation market timing strategy inspired by Joh

...I am thinking about adding the following directive to my IPS. But I first wanted to run it by the Bogleheads to get your take. If S&P PE Ratio goes above 30, then scale back stock allocation 5%, at 35, scale back another 10%, at 40, scale back another 10%, and so on… Rule for increasing stoc...
by Tigermoose
Tue Sep 30, 2014 3:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 43
Views: 3253
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