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Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?

There is this enormous bull sitting in the middle of the herd, right on a huge stack of long treasury bonds. His name is Angus McFed.
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 27, 2014 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Replies: 52
Views: 3308

Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?

I'm not convinced that herd psychology is that much of a driver. Instead it is more of a cash flow issue. The thing about the retail investing herd, is that when stocks are cheap they don't have the capital available to buy. When they have money available to buy because of an improving economy, the ...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 27, 2014 3:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Replies: 52
Views: 3308

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

I think Larry is also saying that you can improve returns for your overall portfolio by adding CCF because you can then increase the duration of your bond holdings. I think we need to keep this in mind ("the term premium and the risks mix well together"). I think Browser was just doing a c...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2641

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

There is a difference between owning commodities themselves and owning commodities futures. Commodities tend to increase in price at the rate of inflation, so you are correct - there's really no expectation of any growth there. Commodities futures are different in that: 1) they represent a form of ...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2641

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

Here's why I recently put 3% of my portfolio into DBC. 1. Futures contracts are a different asset class than bonds or stocks. This adds diversification to the portfolio. 2. One of the largest deep risks is inflation. Buying commodities futures acts as inflation protection My thinking is that the fra...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2641

Re: When to put money into bond fund rather than home princi

If you could pay off your mortgage in 5 years rather than 11 by paying extra principal, then paying extra principal is a bond fund with a duration of 8 years, because you will get the benefit in years 5-11 just as if you bought bonds maturing 5-11 years away. The best comparison is Long-Term Tax-Ex...
by Tigermoose
Thu Aug 21, 2014 2:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to put money into bond fund rather than home principal
Replies: 14
Views: 1656

Re: TIPS vs SVF

Tigermoose, what are you trying to accomplish? Are you trying to mitigate the inflation risk that you recently have been thinking of as the greatest threat to your portfolio, or are you trying to maximize return? In the same paragraph you've claimed both. They're not compatible. Make up your mind. ...
by Tigermoose
Thu Aug 21, 2014 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS vs SVF
Replies: 12
Views: 1336

Re: Is a big war coming ???

I don't know much about this so please excuse my ignorance. It seems to me that if you think commodities are going up, it would make the most sense to buy low cost index funds and etfs from Vanguard that invest in companies that will profit if commodities go up. The 3 examples that come to mind are...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a big war coming ???
Replies: 37
Views: 3808

Reading Bernstein for free: Kindle Unlimited Free trial

Just wanted to let you know that many of William Bernstein's books are available for free on Amazon if you sign up for the 30 day free trial of Kindle Unlimited. I've been wanted to read several of his books for a while now; now I can for free! Woohoo! :sharebeer
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reading Bernstein for free: Kindle Unlimited Free trial
Replies: 1
Views: 387

Re: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations

One scenario is that stocks won't crash, but rather will plod along as inflation heats up at some point in the future. You have to ask, where is that inflation going to come from? Worker wages have been flat or slightly declining for 30 years. The average household savings rate, which was up to 8% ...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 12:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations
Replies: 55
Views: 4882

Re: Is a big war coming ???

How can it be both "an ETF" (exchange traded fund ) and also " not a mutual fund or any other type of Investment Company within the meaning of the Investment Company Act of 1940?" Because it is an ETF that gives one access to the shares of trust, where the shares track the commo...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a big war coming ???
Replies: 37
Views: 3808

Re: When to put money into bond fund rather than home princi

You should search recent posts from Grabiner on this subject. If you can find a bond fund with a duration of 5-6 that offers a 2.67% yield, investing in the bond fund may be a better option. The Vanguard Long Term Tax Exempt fund has a 2.50% yield,a duration of 6.3 and liquidity, close but not equa...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 12:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to put money into bond fund rather than home principal
Replies: 14
Views: 1656

Re: Is a big war coming ???

If I'd been interested in that stuff, I've have been one of the suckers who guessed correctly that "oil" was a good investment, bought into the "innovative" new "commodity ETFs" the press was gushing about, and watched oil prices rise while USO and OIL sank. There's no...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a big war coming ???
Replies: 37
Views: 3808

Re: When to put money into bond fund rather than home princi

This is tricky to answer definitively. I would say that if you can earn an interest rate in bonds (minus any tax hit) which surpasses what it would cost you in mortgage interest (plus any tax benefit), then you should do it. This depends a lot on your income, and thus your marginal tax bracket. The...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to put money into bond fund rather than home principal
Replies: 14
Views: 1656

Re: TIPS vs SVF

Isn't a Stable Value fund more like a Bond fund than TIPS? Don't you need TIPS + Bonds OR SV? Normally you would compare the TIPS breakeven point against treasury bonds to evaluate whether TIPS are a good deal at the present bond rates. But if you have access to a SVF, then that doesn't really help...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS vs SVF
Replies: 12
Views: 1336

Re: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations

One scenario is that stocks won't crash, but rather will plod along as inflation heats up at some point in the future. I am not saying that volatility is dead. Just wondering out loud if all this printing and borrowing won't ultimately end up being managed by inflating. Maybe similar to the 1966-81...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations
Replies: 55
Views: 4882

Re: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations

OTOH an investor who has already mainly achieved their goals but might still hold a fairly high equity allocation due to reluctance to miss out on an equity decade like the 1990's might reasonably infer from today's valuations that such a prolonged stock market bull run is much less likely now, and...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations
Replies: 55
Views: 4882

Re: Is a big war coming ???

Would this mean thePowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund, DBC? Please comment on the following language and tell me whether you think it is important and, if not, why not ? The Fund is not a mutual fund or any other type of Investment Company within the meaning of the Investment Company Act ...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a big war coming ???
Replies: 37
Views: 3808

Re: Rebalancing After a Correction

My concern is that we do not have a market correction for 3 years and you miss out on lots of gains. It could happen. Of course, it might not. Who knows :confused
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing After a Correction
Replies: 13
Views: 1313

When to put money into bond fund rather than home principal

My mortgage rate is 2.67% and I have 11 years left before it is paid off if I pay the minimum amount per month. By putting extra money into the mortgage, we could probably pay it off in 5-6 years. If an intermediate bond fund such as GNMA goes above 2.675%, would it make more sense to put extra mone...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 10:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to put money into bond fund rather than home principal
Replies: 14
Views: 1656

Re: Is a big war coming ???

I have recently bought 3% of my portfolio into the DBC commodities index. I did this largely because my strategy is to only put new money into asset classes that are currently out of favor. I want to diversify my holdings somewhat and add a little inflation protection. Right now, it does feel a litt...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 9:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a big war coming ???
Replies: 37
Views: 3808

TIPS vs SVF

I have been thinking a lot lately about inflation being the biggest risk to my retirement portfolio. I probably have about 20 years left until retirement starts, and then another 25 years of life expectancy after that. So I've been thinking that I need to make sure my asset allocation strategy inclu...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 15, 2014 12:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS vs SVF
Replies: 12
Views: 1336

Re: three reading recommendations

I don't want to derail this thread, but I think you're making the mistake of differentiating buying and holding. Everyday that you hold, you effectively re-buy; they are one in the same (disregarding frictions). So if you're willing to hold "expensive" stocks, then so should a new investo...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 13, 2014 3:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: three reading recommendations
Replies: 11
Views: 1828

Re: Instead of a CD Ladder

LOL. I just read this post and realized this was from my wife last year :)

To give an update, we decided to keep this simple and just put this IRA money into VFSUX - Vanguard Short-Term Investment-Grade Fund. So far it has been the right choice.
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 13, 2014 11:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Instead of a CD Ladder
Replies: 26
Views: 4411

Re: Dashlane Question

But how to I initially set it up for two (or more) log ins? When you create a new account, you will have specified a new username. Dashlane will prompt you to save an entry in Dashlane with that new username. After that, you will be prompted when logging into the site with the option of both userna...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 13, 2014 11:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dashlane Question
Replies: 3
Views: 400

Re: Vanguard on Facebook

Thanks Tigermoose. I never really looked into Stable Value Funds and know nothing about them. I have seen them mentioned here on the boards. My 401K does not offer one either, so I stick to what I have been taught here and throughout but I will look into it and find out a little about them. :beer S...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 13, 2014 10:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard on Facebook
Replies: 10
Views: 1476

Re: three reading recommendations

Thanks Larry. I've put The little book of behavioral investing : how not to be your own worst enemy by James Montier on reserve at my local library. They did not have Behavioural Finance: Insights into Irrational Minds and Markets . Hopefully this "little book" version will still be a prof...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 13, 2014 10:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: three reading recommendations
Replies: 11
Views: 1828

Re: Is the 401k 10% early withdrawal penalty worth it?

I'm fairly sure that you can setup regular annual payments from your 401k that last until your expected death. This would exempt you from the 10% penalty. http://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc558.html "Distributions made as part of a series of substantially equal periodic payments over your life expe...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 13, 2014 10:07 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is the 401k 10% early withdrawal penalty worth it?
Replies: 32
Views: 1454

Re: What's an acceptable stable value fund rate?

For what it's worth, I have my fixed-income roughly 20% TIPS, 35% stable value, and 45% intermediate-term Treasuries. Why do you bother with the intermediate term treasuries? Why not just go with TIPS and SVF? I'm sure your SVF has a higher yield than the IT treasuries, and there is no interest rat...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 12, 2014 3:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's an acceptable stable value fund rate?
Replies: 18
Views: 1369

Re: Dashlane Question

Yes. When you click in the username field, Dashlane will prompt you with all usernames that exist for that site.
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 12, 2014 3:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dashlane Question
Replies: 3
Views: 400

Re: What's an acceptable stable value fund rate?

For what it's worth, I have my fixed-income roughly 20% TIPS, 35% stable value, and 45% intermediate-term Treasuries. Why do you bother with the intermediate term treasuries? Why not just go with TIPS and SVF? I'm sure your SVF has a higher yield than the IT treasuries, and there is no interest rat...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's an acceptable stable value fund rate?
Replies: 18
Views: 1369

Re: Vanguard on Facebook

What you have to keep in mind is that you and others might have more options than what is available at Vanguard. Instead of bonds, you might have access to a Stable Value Fund, TIA-CREF, CDs, I-Bonds, etc that might pay out more without interest rate risk. So their point about giving up yield does n...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard on Facebook
Replies: 10
Views: 1476

Re: So where's that inflation many forecasted?

Just sharing personal observations again, but I think you have a good point about Millennials. I see a lot of my cohort putting off marriage, families, house buying, etc. because they feel like they're behind where they aught to be financially. That's starting to end, but they still aren't going fo...
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 11, 2014 3:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So where's that inflation many forecasted?
Replies: 43
Views: 2653

Re: Need for International Investing ?

The intellect is not going to be able to decide this one for you, because the intellect cannot predict the future. Pick the % for international that allows you to sleep at night.
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 11, 2014 3:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need for International Investing ?
Replies: 49
Views: 2612

Re: So where's that inflation many forecasted?

My limited understanding of this is that it is all about the demand, or lack thereof, for loans. When someone takes out a loan, it creates money that the bank can then use to make other loans to supply other loan demands. Banks currently have a lot of capacity on their balance sheet to meet capital ...
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 11, 2014 3:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So where's that inflation many forecasted?
Replies: 43
Views: 2653

Re: International investing. A good call by our mentor.

JustinR wrote:I'm confused: isn't the main Boglehead philosophy to buy the market and leave your biases at the door?


A major rule for philosophy in general is that you recognize your bias and understand how that impacts your decisions. The worst case is if you think that you do not have a bias.
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 08, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International investing. A good call by our mentor.
Replies: 145
Views: 12366

Where can I find historic averages for REIT P/CF

Where can I find historic averages for REIT index Price to Cash Flow?
by Tigermoose
Thu Aug 07, 2014 1:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where can I find historic averages for REIT P/CF
Replies: 0
Views: 100

Re: International investing. A good call by our mentor.

I suspect that what is really going on is that domestic tilters believe in domestic stocks in the same way that value tilters believe in value stocks. They think that American stocks will win the long run because the market hasn't fully appreciated how attractive American stocks are relative to the...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 06, 2014 10:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International investing. A good call by our mentor.
Replies: 145
Views: 12366

Re: global diversification works in long term

These are good points, Tigermoose, but I believe the market knows about them and current prices reflect that information. By many fundamental measures, PE, PB, PDIV, etc., both DM stocks and EM stocks are undervalued relative to their US counterparts. I believe many market analysts who focus on val...
by Tigermoose
Wed Jul 30, 2014 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: global diversification works in long term
Replies: 21
Views: 1916

Re: global diversification works in long term

What tends to worry me these days about international equities -- especially in Japan and Europe -- is that their demographics are horrible. The U. S. has the "echo-boom" generation that will be very productive and numerous, and so we should see some continued wealth creation in the U. S. ...
by Tigermoose
Wed Jul 30, 2014 12:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: global diversification works in long term
Replies: 21
Views: 1916

Re: PANIC! 101

This guy also predicted that Peak Oil was immanent and would have a severe impact on the economy---that was before fracking. Whoops.
by Tigermoose
Wed Jun 11, 2014 4:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Panic! 101
Replies: 40
Views: 3666

Re: Things to do in St.Louis with a toddler

I'm from St. Louis and I have/had toddlers. Grants Farm (Free) - Park down the bike trail a ways for free parking St. Louis Zoo(Free) The Botanical Garden ($$) - awesome new kids area there Magic House ($$$) - a must visit for vacation The Children's Museum ($$$) - pricey, but worth it for toddlers ...
by Tigermoose
Mon Feb 24, 2014 12:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Things to do in St.Louis with a toddler
Replies: 15
Views: 914

Re: St Louis Bogleheads

Thanks Larry. Please keep us posted on the time for the St. Charles County Library presentation at Spencer Rd.
by Tigermoose
Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:57 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: St Louis Bogleheads
Replies: 12
Views: 1036

Re: Thoughts on my glidepath

Some of it depends on how close you are to your retirement nest egg goal. If you feel you are well ahead of schedule in the amount saved/invested, then you might want to go 2% per year into Bonds starting now. If you are behind schedule, then perhaps just 1% per year into bonds.
by Tigermoose
Thu Feb 06, 2014 6:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on my glidepath
Replies: 9
Views: 802

Re: What is your definition of "Financially Wealthy?"

When you live in such a way that you do not need to think about money.
by Tigermoose
Mon Feb 03, 2014 8:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is your definition of "Financially Wealthy?"
Replies: 110
Views: 10189

Re: Why so many Roth IRAs?

I want flexibility on my taxable income during retirement. I figure I can stay below the higher tax rates by drawing from my 401 just under the higher tax bracket, then pulling on the Roth funds for more income above that tax rate. It also serves as a current emergency buffer.
by Tigermoose
Mon Feb 03, 2014 7:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why so many Roth IRAs?
Replies: 44
Views: 4561

Re: Doom and Gloom

We are living in a golden age.
by Tigermoose
Tue Jan 14, 2014 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Doom and Gloom
Replies: 41
Views: 3535

Looking for a good vitamin supplement

I need to supplement my calcium, iron, and potassium to meet recommended levels. I am either lactose intolerant or allergic to whey and/or casein. Any suggestions or guides that you can point me to?
by Tigermoose
Fri Jan 10, 2014 3:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for a good vitamin supplement
Replies: 9
Views: 788

Getting ready to rebalance - anything I need to know

I've not been paying much attention to financial news lately or this discussion board. Its time for me to do my portfolio checkup and rebalance. Anything I should know?
by Tigermoose
Sat Dec 28, 2013 8:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Getting ready to rebalance - anything I need to know
Replies: 2
Views: 273
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