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Re: Why invest in bonds?

Having bonds and other cash-like assets is essential for re-balancing. I want to hold fixed income so that when the market crashes, I have appreciating assets that can be sold in order to buy equities.
by Tigermoose
Mon Sep 01, 2014 7:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in bonds?
Replies: 103
Views: 5673

Re: Anyone used Vanguard Flagship Services With Portfolio $1

Last tax season when using the free turbotax through Vanguard, I was able to use some of my tax refund as Amazon credit, and in so doing so was given a 10% bonus on that money. Did everyone get this perk? Or was it because we qualify for the Flagship service?
by Tigermoose
Sat Aug 30, 2014 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone used Vanguard Flagship Services With Portfolio $1M+
Replies: 41
Views: 4248

Re: The Power of Zero: Controversial New Book About Taxes

Wouldn't politicians rather choose the hidden tax method -- i.e. inflation -- rather than outright taxes? That seems rather more likely to me.
by Tigermoose
Sat Aug 30, 2014 8:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Zero: [Book and tax planning for retirement]
Replies: 51
Views: 4651

Re: Bond Bubble?

I'm still waiting to see what happens if the Fed ever tries to shrink its balance sheet, even if by just letting the bonds mature. Yea. I watched Martenson's crash course video on Quantitative Easing, and he makes the mistake (intentionally?) of saying the Fed will have to try and sell its bonds on...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 3:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Bubble?
Replies: 10
Views: 886

Re: Bond Bubble?

That said, I keep the majority of my fixed income in a Stable Value Fund and the few treasuries I have are in the Vanguard Total Bond Market and TIPs. I see no reason to change that up until rates go up and the yield from intermediate treasures exceeds the yield I receive from my SVF.
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Bubble?
Replies: 10
Views: 886

Re: Which book to start with?

Sign up for the 30 day free trial of Kindle Unlimited on Amazon. Read William Bernstein's "Investing for Adults" books for free. Volumes 1-4.
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 2:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which book to start with?
Replies: 6
Views: 303

Re: Bond Bubble?

The author is Chris Martenson, who is always talking up peak this, peak that, bubble this, bubble that. His predictions have pretty much all failed. He is a doom and gloomer.
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 2:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Bubble?
Replies: 10
Views: 886

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Just to offer a concrete example of what a "low-return" future looks like, the table below shows William Bernstein's estimates for expected annual real returns of major asset classes over the next 10 years (from his book, Rational Expectations , published May 2014). These estimates are mo...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 11:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 179
Views: 10593

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Just to offer a concrete example of what a "low-return" future looks like, the table below shows William Bernstein's estimates for expected annual real returns of major asset classes over the next 10 years (from his book, Rational Expectations , published May 2014). These estimates are mo...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 11:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 179
Views: 10593

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Innovation? We have only seen the beginning. We have just put through the largest group of young people in the history of the world through college. We have people like Elon Musk developing ideas like the "Hyperloop" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop If you read this, you will notice ...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 11:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 179
Views: 10593

Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?

There is this enormous bull sitting in the middle of the herd, right on a huge stack of long treasury bonds. His name is Angus McFed.
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 27, 2014 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Replies: 52
Views: 3425

Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?

I'm not convinced that herd psychology is that much of a driver. Instead it is more of a cash flow issue. The thing about the retail investing herd, is that when stocks are cheap they don't have the capital available to buy. When they have money available to buy because of an improving economy, the ...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 27, 2014 3:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Replies: 52
Views: 3425

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

I think Larry is also saying that you can improve returns for your overall portfolio by adding CCF because you can then increase the duration of your bond holdings. I think we need to keep this in mind ("the term premium and the risks mix well together"). I think Browser was just doing a c...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2688

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

There is a difference between owning commodities themselves and owning commodities futures. Commodities tend to increase in price at the rate of inflation, so you are correct - there's really no expectation of any growth there. Commodities futures are different in that: 1) they represent a form of ...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2688

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

Here's why I recently put 3% of my portfolio into DBC. 1. Futures contracts are a different asset class than bonds or stocks. This adds diversification to the portfolio. 2. One of the largest deep risks is inflation. Buying commodities futures acts as inflation protection My thinking is that the fra...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2688

Re: When to put money into bond fund rather than home princi

If you could pay off your mortgage in 5 years rather than 11 by paying extra principal, then paying extra principal is a bond fund with a duration of 8 years, because you will get the benefit in years 5-11 just as if you bought bonds maturing 5-11 years away. The best comparison is Long-Term Tax-Ex...
by Tigermoose
Thu Aug 21, 2014 2:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to put money into bond fund rather than home principal
Replies: 14
Views: 1666

Re: TIPS vs SVF

Tigermoose, what are you trying to accomplish? Are you trying to mitigate the inflation risk that you recently have been thinking of as the greatest threat to your portfolio, or are you trying to maximize return? In the same paragraph you've claimed both. They're not compatible. Make up your mind. ...
by Tigermoose
Thu Aug 21, 2014 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS vs SVF
Replies: 12
Views: 1339

Re: Is a big war coming ???

I don't know much about this so please excuse my ignorance. It seems to me that if you think commodities are going up, it would make the most sense to buy low cost index funds and etfs from Vanguard that invest in companies that will profit if commodities go up. The 3 examples that come to mind are...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a big war coming ???
Replies: 37
Views: 3838

Reading Bernstein for free: Kindle Unlimited Free trial

Just wanted to let you know that many of William Bernstein's books are available for free on Amazon if you sign up for the 30 day free trial of Kindle Unlimited. I've been wanted to read several of his books for a while now; now I can for free! Woohoo! :sharebeer
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reading Bernstein for free: Kindle Unlimited Free trial
Replies: 1
Views: 387

Re: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations

One scenario is that stocks won't crash, but rather will plod along as inflation heats up at some point in the future. You have to ask, where is that inflation going to come from? Worker wages have been flat or slightly declining for 30 years. The average household savings rate, which was up to 8% ...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 12:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations
Replies: 55
Views: 4916

Re: Is a big war coming ???

How can it be both "an ETF" (exchange traded fund ) and also " not a mutual fund or any other type of Investment Company within the meaning of the Investment Company Act of 1940?" Because it is an ETF that gives one access to the shares of trust, where the shares track the commo...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a big war coming ???
Replies: 37
Views: 3838

Re: When to put money into bond fund rather than home princi

You should search recent posts from Grabiner on this subject. If you can find a bond fund with a duration of 5-6 that offers a 2.67% yield, investing in the bond fund may be a better option. The Vanguard Long Term Tax Exempt fund has a 2.50% yield,a duration of 6.3 and liquidity, close but not equa...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 12:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to put money into bond fund rather than home principal
Replies: 14
Views: 1666

Re: Is a big war coming ???

If I'd been interested in that stuff, I've have been one of the suckers who guessed correctly that "oil" was a good investment, bought into the "innovative" new "commodity ETFs" the press was gushing about, and watched oil prices rise while USO and OIL sank. There's no...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a big war coming ???
Replies: 37
Views: 3838

Re: When to put money into bond fund rather than home princi

This is tricky to answer definitively. I would say that if you can earn an interest rate in bonds (minus any tax hit) which surpasses what it would cost you in mortgage interest (plus any tax benefit), then you should do it. This depends a lot on your income, and thus your marginal tax bracket. The...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to put money into bond fund rather than home principal
Replies: 14
Views: 1666

Re: TIPS vs SVF

Isn't a Stable Value fund more like a Bond fund than TIPS? Don't you need TIPS + Bonds OR SV? Normally you would compare the TIPS breakeven point against treasury bonds to evaluate whether TIPS are a good deal at the present bond rates. But if you have access to a SVF, then that doesn't really help...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS vs SVF
Replies: 12
Views: 1339

Re: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations

One scenario is that stocks won't crash, but rather will plod along as inflation heats up at some point in the future. I am not saying that volatility is dead. Just wondering out loud if all this printing and borrowing won't ultimately end up being managed by inflating. Maybe similar to the 1966-81...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations
Replies: 55
Views: 4916

Re: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations

OTOH an investor who has already mainly achieved their goals but might still hold a fairly high equity allocation due to reluctance to miss out on an equity decade like the 1990's might reasonably infer from today's valuations that such a prolonged stock market bull run is much less likely now, and...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations
Replies: 55
Views: 4916

Re: Is a big war coming ???

Would this mean thePowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund, DBC? Please comment on the following language and tell me whether you think it is important and, if not, why not ? The Fund is not a mutual fund or any other type of Investment Company within the meaning of the Investment Company Act ...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a big war coming ???
Replies: 37
Views: 3838

Re: Rebalancing After a Correction

My concern is that we do not have a market correction for 3 years and you miss out on lots of gains. It could happen. Of course, it might not. Who knows :confused
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing After a Correction
Replies: 13
Views: 1313

When to put money into bond fund rather than home principal

My mortgage rate is 2.67% and I have 11 years left before it is paid off if I pay the minimum amount per month. By putting extra money into the mortgage, we could probably pay it off in 5-6 years. If an intermediate bond fund such as GNMA goes above 2.675%, would it make more sense to put extra mone...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 10:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to put money into bond fund rather than home principal
Replies: 14
Views: 1666

Re: Is a big war coming ???

I have recently bought 3% of my portfolio into the DBC commodities index. I did this largely because my strategy is to only put new money into asset classes that are currently out of favor. I want to diversify my holdings somewhat and add a little inflation protection. Right now, it does feel a litt...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 9:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a big war coming ???
Replies: 37
Views: 3838

TIPS vs SVF

I have been thinking a lot lately about inflation being the biggest risk to my retirement portfolio. I probably have about 20 years left until retirement starts, and then another 25 years of life expectancy after that. So I've been thinking that I need to make sure my asset allocation strategy inclu...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 15, 2014 12:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS vs SVF
Replies: 12
Views: 1339

Re: three reading recommendations

I don't want to derail this thread, but I think you're making the mistake of differentiating buying and holding. Everyday that you hold, you effectively re-buy; they are one in the same (disregarding frictions). So if you're willing to hold "expensive" stocks, then so should a new investo...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 13, 2014 3:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: three reading recommendations
Replies: 11
Views: 1829

Re: Instead of a CD Ladder

LOL. I just read this post and realized this was from my wife last year :)

To give an update, we decided to keep this simple and just put this IRA money into VFSUX - Vanguard Short-Term Investment-Grade Fund. So far it has been the right choice.
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 13, 2014 11:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Instead of a CD Ladder
Replies: 26
Views: 4418

Re: Dashlane Question

But how to I initially set it up for two (or more) log ins? When you create a new account, you will have specified a new username. Dashlane will prompt you to save an entry in Dashlane with that new username. After that, you will be prompted when logging into the site with the option of both userna...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 13, 2014 11:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dashlane Question
Replies: 3
Views: 400

Re: Vanguard on Facebook

Thanks Tigermoose. I never really looked into Stable Value Funds and know nothing about them. I have seen them mentioned here on the boards. My 401K does not offer one either, so I stick to what I have been taught here and throughout but I will look into it and find out a little about them. :beer S...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 13, 2014 10:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard on Facebook
Replies: 10
Views: 1483

Re: three reading recommendations

Thanks Larry. I've put The little book of behavioral investing : how not to be your own worst enemy by James Montier on reserve at my local library. They did not have Behavioural Finance: Insights into Irrational Minds and Markets . Hopefully this "little book" version will still be a prof...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 13, 2014 10:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: three reading recommendations
Replies: 11
Views: 1829

Re: Is the 401k 10% early withdrawal penalty worth it?

I'm fairly sure that you can setup regular annual payments from your 401k that last until your expected death. This would exempt you from the 10% penalty. http://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc558.html "Distributions made as part of a series of substantially equal periodic payments over your life expe...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 13, 2014 10:07 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is the 401k 10% early withdrawal penalty worth it?
Replies: 32
Views: 1461

Re: What's an acceptable stable value fund rate?

For what it's worth, I have my fixed-income roughly 20% TIPS, 35% stable value, and 45% intermediate-term Treasuries. Why do you bother with the intermediate term treasuries? Why not just go with TIPS and SVF? I'm sure your SVF has a higher yield than the IT treasuries, and there is no interest rat...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 12, 2014 3:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's an acceptable stable value fund rate?
Replies: 18
Views: 1370

Re: Dashlane Question

Yes. When you click in the username field, Dashlane will prompt you with all usernames that exist for that site.
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 12, 2014 3:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dashlane Question
Replies: 3
Views: 400

Re: What's an acceptable stable value fund rate?

For what it's worth, I have my fixed-income roughly 20% TIPS, 35% stable value, and 45% intermediate-term Treasuries. Why do you bother with the intermediate term treasuries? Why not just go with TIPS and SVF? I'm sure your SVF has a higher yield than the IT treasuries, and there is no interest rat...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's an acceptable stable value fund rate?
Replies: 18
Views: 1370

Re: Vanguard on Facebook

What you have to keep in mind is that you and others might have more options than what is available at Vanguard. Instead of bonds, you might have access to a Stable Value Fund, TIA-CREF, CDs, I-Bonds, etc that might pay out more without interest rate risk. So their point about giving up yield does n...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 12, 2014 10:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard on Facebook
Replies: 10
Views: 1483

Re: So where's that inflation many forecasted?

Just sharing personal observations again, but I think you have a good point about Millennials. I see a lot of my cohort putting off marriage, families, house buying, etc. because they feel like they're behind where they aught to be financially. That's starting to end, but they still aren't going fo...
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 11, 2014 3:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So where's that inflation many forecasted?
Replies: 43
Views: 2665

Re: Need for International Investing ?

The intellect is not going to be able to decide this one for you, because the intellect cannot predict the future. Pick the % for international that allows you to sleep at night.
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 11, 2014 3:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need for International Investing ?
Replies: 49
Views: 2628

Re: So where's that inflation many forecasted?

My limited understanding of this is that it is all about the demand, or lack thereof, for loans. When someone takes out a loan, it creates money that the bank can then use to make other loans to supply other loan demands. Banks currently have a lot of capacity on their balance sheet to meet capital ...
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 11, 2014 3:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So where's that inflation many forecasted?
Replies: 43
Views: 2665

Re: International investing. A good call by our mentor.

JustinR wrote:I'm confused: isn't the main Boglehead philosophy to buy the market and leave your biases at the door?


A major rule for philosophy in general is that you recognize your bias and understand how that impacts your decisions. The worst case is if you think that you do not have a bias.
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 08, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International investing. A good call by our mentor.
Replies: 145
Views: 12401

Where can I find historic averages for REIT P/CF

Where can I find historic averages for REIT index Price to Cash Flow?
by Tigermoose
Thu Aug 07, 2014 1:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where can I find historic averages for REIT P/CF
Replies: 0
Views: 100

Re: International investing. A good call by our mentor.

I suspect that what is really going on is that domestic tilters believe in domestic stocks in the same way that value tilters believe in value stocks. They think that American stocks will win the long run because the market hasn't fully appreciated how attractive American stocks are relative to the...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 06, 2014 10:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International investing. A good call by our mentor.
Replies: 145
Views: 12401

Re: global diversification works in long term

These are good points, Tigermoose, but I believe the market knows about them and current prices reflect that information. By many fundamental measures, PE, PB, PDIV, etc., both DM stocks and EM stocks are undervalued relative to their US counterparts. I believe many market analysts who focus on val...
by Tigermoose
Wed Jul 30, 2014 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: global diversification works in long term
Replies: 21
Views: 1918
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