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Re: Angry when stock market is down

Did you recently buy REITS before they just went down?
by Tigermoose
Fri Sep 12, 2014 11:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Angry when stock market is down
Replies: 79
Views: 3731

Re: I've never been a fan of commodity funds

Looks like a good time to buy. :sharebeer Oversupply means a cutback in production. A cutback in production will most likely lead to undersupply in the future - which should cause commodities to rise. So. Looks like a good time to buy. :beer
by Tigermoose
Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I've never been a fan of commodity funds
Replies: 28
Views: 2011

Re: Why did REITs drop today?

I, for one, am outraged. I only include REITS for the diversification as defined by going up when the S&P goes down. This behavior is outrageous!
by Tigermoose
Thu Sep 11, 2014 10:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did REITs drop today?
Replies: 26
Views: 3853

Re: The importance of discipline

Thanks Larry, Nisi, and Browser. I always enjoy your posts and benefit from your combined wisdom.
by Tigermoose
Mon Sep 08, 2014 11:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The importance of discipline
Replies: 19
Views: 1353

Re: Why does the stock market "always go up"? Will this pers

My intuition says that perpetual growth isn't sustainable, that eventually, we'd hit a "cap". So I'm still a noob here - what is wrong with this logic? It's hard to say. Most of our historical trends were impacted hugely by the Great Depression, WW1 and WW2. If the world manages to contin...
by Tigermoose
Mon Sep 08, 2014 11:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market "always go up"? Will this persist?
Replies: 42
Views: 3805

Re: International Investing and the USD

avalpert wrote:
Tigermoose wrote: But I've been informed here that currency risk isn't really a risk. :confused

By whom and in what context?



Here's a thread:

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=142178
by Tigermoose
Fri Sep 05, 2014 1:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Investing and the USD
Replies: 12
Views: 674

Re: Help: do I need to transfer out of this SVF ?

I have a novel idea... Why don't you ask the plan administrator or your MetLife representative what the ramifications really are? I don't think any of us have the documents necessary to give you cogent advice. I was hoping someone here has had experience with this. I suppose I could try contacting ...
by Tigermoose
Fri Sep 05, 2014 12:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help: do I need to transfer out of this SVF ?
Replies: 9
Views: 609

Re: Pax Romana

I enjoyed this post OP. Thanks. I think Pickety says in his book Capitalism in the 21st century, that slow long term growth leads to a higher concentration of wealth by capitalists rather than labor. And as the amount of capital rises, the expected returns decrease. So as long as we live in the Pax ...
by Tigermoose
Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pax Romana
Replies: 2
Views: 919

Re: International Investing and the USD

The "coincidence" raises the question....when investing unhedged in international equitiies, how much of gamble is one taking on currency valuation rather than just broadly diversifying in international companies...
by Tigermoose
Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Investing and the USD
Replies: 12
Views: 674

Re: International Investing and the USD

Yes, this should be interesting to watch if the US Dollar continues to strengthen and the international equity appreciation does not meet or exceed the loss due to currency risk. But I've been informed here that currency risk isn't really a risk. :confused
by Tigermoose
Thu Sep 04, 2014 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Investing and the USD
Replies: 12
Views: 674

Re: Second guessing the three fund portoflio

In the past, actively managed funds have not avoided bear markets any better than a passive index. And they charge you a higher expense ratio for the illusion that they are going to do something special next time to help you avoid losing money.
by Tigermoose
Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Second guessing the three fund portoflio
Replies: 14
Views: 879

Help: do I need to transfer out of this SVF ?

My company is going to convert from our current insurance company 401k provider to Fidelity at the beginning of next year. While looking at the fine print for the SVF I have some money in, i see the following: " Upon discontinuance of the annuity by your employer , distributions from the fixed ...
by Tigermoose
Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help: do I need to transfer out of this SVF ?
Replies: 9
Views: 609

Re: frontier markets

How does this ETF look?

BBRC - Beyond BRICs ETF
by Tigermoose
Wed Sep 03, 2014 9:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: frontier markets
Replies: 15
Views: 1176

Re: Why invest in bonds?

Having bonds and other cash-like assets is essential for re-balancing. I want to hold fixed income so that when the market crashes, I have appreciating assets that can be sold in order to buy equities.
by Tigermoose
Mon Sep 01, 2014 7:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in bonds?
Replies: 103
Views: 6202

Re: Anyone used Vanguard Flagship Services With Portfolio $1

Last tax season when using the free turbotax through Vanguard, I was able to use some of my tax refund as Amazon credit, and in so doing so was given a 10% bonus on that money. Did everyone get this perk? Or was it because we qualify for the Flagship service?
by Tigermoose
Sat Aug 30, 2014 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone used Vanguard Flagship Services With Portfolio $1M+
Replies: 41
Views: 4305

Re: The Power of Zero: Controversial New Book About Taxes

Wouldn't politicians rather choose the hidden tax method -- i.e. inflation -- rather than outright taxes? That seems rather more likely to me.
by Tigermoose
Sat Aug 30, 2014 8:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Zero: [Book and tax planning for retirement]
Replies: 52
Views: 5198

Re: Bond Bubble?

I'm still waiting to see what happens if the Fed ever tries to shrink its balance sheet, even if by just letting the bonds mature. Yea. I watched Martenson's crash course video on Quantitative Easing, and he makes the mistake (intentionally?) of saying the Fed will have to try and sell its bonds on...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 3:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Bubble?
Replies: 10
Views: 914

Re: Bond Bubble?

That said, I keep the majority of my fixed income in a Stable Value Fund and the few treasuries I have are in the Vanguard Total Bond Market and TIPs. I see no reason to change that up until rates go up and the yield from intermediate treasures exceeds the yield I receive from my SVF.
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 2:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Bubble?
Replies: 10
Views: 914

Re: Which book to start with?

Sign up for the 30 day free trial of Kindle Unlimited on Amazon. Read William Bernstein's "Investing for Adults" books for free. Volumes 1-4.
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 2:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which book to start with?
Replies: 6
Views: 318

Re: Bond Bubble?

The author is Chris Martenson, who is always talking up peak this, peak that, bubble this, bubble that. His predictions have pretty much all failed. He is a doom and gloomer.
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 2:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Bubble?
Replies: 10
Views: 914

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Just to offer a concrete example of what a "low-return" future looks like, the table below shows William Bernstein's estimates for expected annual real returns of major asset classes over the next 10 years (from his book, Rational Expectations , published May 2014). These estimates are mo...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 11:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 189
Views: 12110

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Just to offer a concrete example of what a "low-return" future looks like, the table below shows William Bernstein's estimates for expected annual real returns of major asset classes over the next 10 years (from his book, Rational Expectations , published May 2014). These estimates are mo...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 11:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 189
Views: 12110

Re: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?

Innovation? We have only seen the beginning. We have just put through the largest group of young people in the history of the world through college. We have people like Elon Musk developing ideas like the "Hyperloop" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop If you read this, you will notice ...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 29, 2014 11:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Low-Return Future? Are We Prepared?
Replies: 189
Views: 12110

Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?

There is this enormous bull sitting in the middle of the herd, right on a huge stack of long treasury bonds. His name is Angus McFed.
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 27, 2014 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Replies: 52
Views: 3497

Re: What's "The Herd" doing today?

I'm not convinced that herd psychology is that much of a driver. Instead it is more of a cash flow issue. The thing about the retail investing herd, is that when stocks are cheap they don't have the capital available to buy. When they have money available to buy because of an improving economy, the ...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 27, 2014 3:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's "The Herd" doing today?
Replies: 52
Views: 3497

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

I think Larry is also saying that you can improve returns for your overall portfolio by adding CCF because you can then increase the duration of your bond holdings. I think we need to keep this in mind ("the term premium and the risks mix well together"). I think Browser was just doing a c...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 26, 2014 10:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2786

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

There is a difference between owning commodities themselves and owning commodities futures. Commodities tend to increase in price at the rate of inflation, so you are correct - there's really no expectation of any growth there. Commodities futures are different in that: 1) they represent a form of ...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2786

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

Here's why I recently put 3% of my portfolio into DBC. 1. Futures contracts are a different asset class than bonds or stocks. This adds diversification to the portfolio. 2. One of the largest deep risks is inflation. Buying commodities futures acts as inflation protection My thinking is that the fra...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 22, 2014 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2786

Re: When to put money into bond fund rather than home princi

If you could pay off your mortgage in 5 years rather than 11 by paying extra principal, then paying extra principal is a bond fund with a duration of 8 years, because you will get the benefit in years 5-11 just as if you bought bonds maturing 5-11 years away. The best comparison is Long-Term Tax-Ex...
by Tigermoose
Thu Aug 21, 2014 2:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to put money into bond fund rather than home principal
Replies: 14
Views: 1707

Re: TIPS vs SVF

Tigermoose, what are you trying to accomplish? Are you trying to mitigate the inflation risk that you recently have been thinking of as the greatest threat to your portfolio, or are you trying to maximize return? In the same paragraph you've claimed both. They're not compatible. Make up your mind. ...
by Tigermoose
Thu Aug 21, 2014 2:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS vs SVF
Replies: 12
Views: 1356

Re: Is a big war coming ???

I don't know much about this so please excuse my ignorance. It seems to me that if you think commodities are going up, it would make the most sense to buy low cost index funds and etfs from Vanguard that invest in companies that will profit if commodities go up. The 3 examples that come to mind are...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a big war coming ???
Replies: 37
Views: 3903

Reading Bernstein for free: Kindle Unlimited Free trial

Just wanted to let you know that many of William Bernstein's books are available for free on Amazon if you sign up for the 30 day free trial of Kindle Unlimited. I've been wanted to read several of his books for a while now; now I can for free! Woohoo! :sharebeer
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 1:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reading Bernstein for free: Kindle Unlimited Free trial
Replies: 1
Views: 397

Re: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations

One scenario is that stocks won't crash, but rather will plod along as inflation heats up at some point in the future. You have to ask, where is that inflation going to come from? Worker wages have been flat or slightly declining for 30 years. The average household savings rate, which was up to 8% ...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 12:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations
Replies: 55
Views: 4968

Re: Is a big war coming ???

How can it be both "an ETF" (exchange traded fund ) and also " not a mutual fund or any other type of Investment Company within the meaning of the Investment Company Act of 1940?" Because it is an ETF that gives one access to the shares of trust, where the shares track the commo...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a big war coming ???
Replies: 37
Views: 3903

Re: When to put money into bond fund rather than home princi

You should search recent posts from Grabiner on this subject. If you can find a bond fund with a duration of 5-6 that offers a 2.67% yield, investing in the bond fund may be a better option. The Vanguard Long Term Tax Exempt fund has a 2.50% yield,a duration of 6.3 and liquidity, close but not equa...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 12:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to put money into bond fund rather than home principal
Replies: 14
Views: 1707

Re: Is a big war coming ???

If I'd been interested in that stuff, I've have been one of the suckers who guessed correctly that "oil" was a good investment, bought into the "innovative" new "commodity ETFs" the press was gushing about, and watched oil prices rise while USO and OIL sank. There's no...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a big war coming ???
Replies: 37
Views: 3903

Re: When to put money into bond fund rather than home princi

This is tricky to answer definitively. I would say that if you can earn an interest rate in bonds (minus any tax hit) which surpasses what it would cost you in mortgage interest (plus any tax benefit), then you should do it. This depends a lot on your income, and thus your marginal tax bracket. The...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to put money into bond fund rather than home principal
Replies: 14
Views: 1707

Re: TIPS vs SVF

Isn't a Stable Value fund more like a Bond fund than TIPS? Don't you need TIPS + Bonds OR SV? Normally you would compare the TIPS breakeven point against treasury bonds to evaluate whether TIPS are a good deal at the present bond rates. But if you have access to a SVF, then that doesn't really help...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS vs SVF
Replies: 12
Views: 1356

Re: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations

One scenario is that stocks won't crash, but rather will plod along as inflation heats up at some point in the future. I am not saying that volatility is dead. Just wondering out loud if all this printing and borrowing won't ultimately end up being managed by inflating. Maybe similar to the 1966-81...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations
Replies: 55
Views: 4968

Re: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations

OTOH an investor who has already mainly achieved their goals but might still hold a fairly high equity allocation due to reluctance to miss out on an equity decade like the 1990's might reasonably infer from today's valuations that such a prolonged stock market bull run is much less likely now, and...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller on Lofty Market Elevations
Replies: 55
Views: 4968

Re: Is a big war coming ???

Would this mean thePowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund, DBC? Please comment on the following language and tell me whether you think it is important and, if not, why not ? The Fund is not a mutual fund or any other type of Investment Company within the meaning of the Investment Company Act ...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a big war coming ???
Replies: 37
Views: 3903

Re: Rebalancing After a Correction

My concern is that we do not have a market correction for 3 years and you miss out on lots of gains. It could happen. Of course, it might not. Who knows :confused
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing After a Correction
Replies: 13
Views: 1318

When to put money into bond fund rather than home principal

My mortgage rate is 2.67% and I have 11 years left before it is paid off if I pay the minimum amount per month. By putting extra money into the mortgage, we could probably pay it off in 5-6 years. If an intermediate bond fund such as GNMA goes above 2.675%, would it make more sense to put extra mone...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 10:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to put money into bond fund rather than home principal
Replies: 14
Views: 1707

Re: Is a big war coming ???

I have recently bought 3% of my portfolio into the DBC commodities index. I did this largely because my strategy is to only put new money into asset classes that are currently out of favor. I want to diversify my holdings somewhat and add a little inflation protection. Right now, it does feel a litt...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 19, 2014 9:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a big war coming ???
Replies: 37
Views: 3903

TIPS vs SVF

I have been thinking a lot lately about inflation being the biggest risk to my retirement portfolio. I probably have about 20 years left until retirement starts, and then another 25 years of life expectancy after that. So I've been thinking that I need to make sure my asset allocation strategy inclu...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 15, 2014 12:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS vs SVF
Replies: 12
Views: 1356

Re: three reading recommendations

I don't want to derail this thread, but I think you're making the mistake of differentiating buying and holding. Everyday that you hold, you effectively re-buy; they are one in the same (disregarding frictions). So if you're willing to hold "expensive" stocks, then so should a new investo...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 13, 2014 3:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: three reading recommendations
Replies: 11
Views: 1833

Re: Instead of a CD Ladder

LOL. I just read this post and realized this was from my wife last year :)

To give an update, we decided to keep this simple and just put this IRA money into VFSUX - Vanguard Short-Term Investment-Grade Fund. So far it has been the right choice.
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 13, 2014 11:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Instead of a CD Ladder
Replies: 26
Views: 4442

Re: Dashlane Question

But how to I initially set it up for two (or more) log ins? When you create a new account, you will have specified a new username. Dashlane will prompt you to save an entry in Dashlane with that new username. After that, you will be prompted when logging into the site with the option of both userna...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 13, 2014 11:08 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dashlane Question
Replies: 3
Views: 409
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