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Re: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?

Obviously some economists do believe it is possible to predict busts.

Nile98:

"There are two types of forecasters; those who don't know and those who don't know they don't know." -- John Kenneth Galbraith

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Fri Nov 21, 2014 10:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?
Replies: 21
Views: 1144

Re: The Bogleheads Have Taken Over

On The Bogleheads' Guide to Retirement Planning - is this book aimed toward the accumulation or distribution phase? It seems it's similar to The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing but more focused specifically on retirement accounts? Was reading Amazon description and was trying to put it all together ...
by Taylor Larimore
Fri Nov 21, 2014 9:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bogleheads Have Taken Over
Replies: 8
Views: 1865

Re: Diversification among Bonds?

My main question is, what are everyone's thoughts on diversifying their bond holdings among different types of bonds? nspayne17: In my opinion, ANY low-cost, good quality, diversified short- or intermediate-term bond fund will do the job of providing safety in a portfolio. It is more efficient to u...
by Taylor Larimore
Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification among Bonds?
Replies: 22
Views: 2040

Re: Past and Future returns

I don't see the next 15 years providing the returns of the past 15 years. This table includes the past 15 year asset-class returns for the period ending 6-30-00: Just to clarify if I may, are these results for the period starting 6-30-00? Or are these '85-2000? Nicely formatted table by the way! in...
by Taylor Larimore
Fri Nov 21, 2014 5:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 59
Views: 3680

"If You Can" Free Again, Starting Tomorrow

Bill:

Thank you for your contribution of this fine book.

I have included important excerpts from If You Can in my "Collection of Investment Gems":

If You Can

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Fri Nov 21, 2014 5:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If You Can Free Again, Starting Tomorrow
Replies: 2
Views: 661

"Are You an Irrational Investor? Here’s How to Tell"

Bogleheads:

Allan Roth, an author and Boglehead who writes the finance articles for AARP magazine, asks:

Are You an Irrational Investor? Here's How to Tell

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Fri Nov 21, 2014 5:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are You an Irrational Investor? Here’s How to Tell"
Replies: 7
Views: 991

Past and Future returns

I don't see the next 15 years providing the returns of the past 15 years. This table includes the past 15 year asset-class returns for the period ending 6-30-00: Style.......1 Yr...3 Yrs.....5 Yrs...10 Yrs...15 Yrs. LCG......27.19...27.04....24.98...17.85....17.15 LCB........8.93...17.29....20.35.....
by Taylor Larimore
Fri Nov 21, 2014 1:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 59
Views: 3680

Re: New Investor (23), Switch from Vanguard Target Retiremen

Create a three-fund portfolio that is 35% Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (Personal Account), 35% Total International Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares (Personal Account), 30% Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (Roth IRA). briansfeldman: What you propose is the simple, sophistic...
by Taylor Larimore
Thu Nov 20, 2014 6:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Investor (23), Switch from Vanguard Target Retirement?
Replies: 6
Views: 792

The Merriman Funds ?

Bogleheads: I met Mr. Merriman long ago and was impressed enough to buy his book, Investing for a Lifetime. In his book, published in 1992, he refers to his three Merriman Funds: Merriman Timed Blue Chip Fund; Merriman Timed Capital Appreciation Fund ; and Merriman Timed Asset Allocation Fund. Does ...
by Taylor Larimore
Thu Nov 20, 2014 9:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 77
Views: 6585

Re: Is investing more risky today today than before the inte

Victoria:

Nice post! The Bogleheads forum at its best!

Thank you and best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Wed Nov 19, 2014 6:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing more risky today today than before the internet
Replies: 29
Views: 2516

20 reasons TSM is now the world's largest mutual fund

10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt Springman: Below are 20 Reasons why Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index Fund is now the largest mutual fund in the world: 1 Rated Gold (highest rating) by Morningstar analysts . 2 Broad diversification containing more U.S. stocks than any other mutua...
by Taylor Larimore
Wed Nov 19, 2014 5:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 77
Views: 6585

Jack's speech: The Telltale Chart

Why people keep bringing up the Telltale Chart when it is completely incorrect in its conclusions is beyond by grasp. Larry: I brought it up because I know that anything Mr. Bogle says is worth listening to. I had the honor of sitting next to Jack as he made the final revisions. Best wishes. Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Wed Nov 19, 2014 9:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 59
Views: 3680

Capitalization weighted or Asset weighted?

One purported minus of index funds is that since they are capitalization-weighted, they buy more of the stocks that are popular and have gone up a lot in value. In that sense, they chase winners. This does seem to be a form of running with the crowd. CAll_Me_Op: Running with the crowd or not, capit...
by Taylor Larimore
Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I Like Index Funds
Replies: 26
Views: 3830

The small-cap value premium ?

Private Farmer:

Mr. Bogle discusses the "small-cap value premium" (and much more) in this speech that many Bogleheads heard him give during our conference 12 years ago:

The Telltale Chart.

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Tue Nov 18, 2014 5:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value premium
Replies: 59
Views: 3680

"Portfolio Valuations in Perspective"

Bogleheads:

This is the latest video in the Sensible Investing series:

Portfolio Valuations in Perspective

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Tue Nov 18, 2014 12:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Portfolio Valuations in Perspective"
Replies: 0
Views: 304

10 Worst Years for the S&P 500 Index

Just something to throw out there.With the internet and the digital age do you feel investing is more or less risky,or the same? hoops777: Below are listed the 10 Worst Years for the S&P 500 Index since 1930: 1931 -47.1% 1937 -38.6% 2008 -38.5% 1974 -29.7% 1930 -28.5% 2002 -23.4% 1941 -17.9% 19...
by Taylor Larimore
Tue Nov 18, 2014 11:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing more risky today today than before the internet
Replies: 29
Views: 2516

"Stay the course."

Coachz: No one in the mutual fund industry has a greater combination of impeccable character, knowledge, inventive genius, practical experience, wisdom, perseverance, literary ability, kindness, modesty, and the desire to help others than Jack Bogle. This is what he wrote in Common Sense on Mutual F...
by Taylor Larimore
Tue Nov 18, 2014 11:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One Source to follow world markets ?
Replies: 26
Views: 1798

Wrong topic

I stick with 90% VT (total world stock) en and 10% BND (total bond market). Perhaps a value tilt in the future when a good total world value fund will become available for low cost. Why is it still not there?!! iw90qkmq: This thread is about The Three Fund Portfolio . Please ask your question HERE ...
by Taylor Larimore
Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 946
Views: 388812

Re: Why I Like Index Funds

Taylor, I think it would be helpful if you defined what index funds you are advocating for, is it just the three cap-weighted Vanguard funds in your three fund portfolio? There has been a proliferation of "indexes" that track all sorts of things, and many of them, like the Vix index (VXX)...
by Taylor Larimore
Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I Like Index Funds
Replies: 26
Views: 3830

Three favorite index funds.

Bogleheads:

My three favorite index funds are in The Three Fund Portfolio

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Mon Nov 17, 2014 5:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I Like Index Funds
Replies: 26
Views: 3830

William Bernstein's media recommendation.

coachz wrote:I have read it (Four Pillars of Investing). :-)
coachz:

Page 224 of Bill Bernstein's Four Pillars of Investing:
Do not read any more magazine or newspaper articles on finance, and, whatever you do, do not watch Wall Street Week, Nightly Business Report, or CNBC.

Best wishes
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Mon Nov 17, 2014 2:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One Source to follow world markets ?
Replies: 26
Views: 1798

Why I Like Index Funds

Bogleheads: Listed below are 15 reasons I like index funds: 1. Low cost: Research has shown that "low-cost" is the best predictor of future returns. Index funds have much lower costs than most managed funds. 2. Higher returns: Index funds (on average) have higher returns than managed funds...
by Taylor Larimore
Mon Nov 17, 2014 10:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I Like Index Funds
Replies: 26
Views: 3830

What it is like to be poor.

generalzodschicken

Because of your link, I will never look at the poor the same way.

Thank you and best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Sun Nov 16, 2014 10:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Not to Retire
Replies: 67
Views: 6869

Past Performance ?

Jeff: Welcome to the Bogleheads forum! "Also, a proven track record is as sound an investing basis as many, imo." Sorry, past performance is NOT a "sound investment basis" as these experts attest: Jack Bogle: "The biggest mistake investors make is looking backward at perform...
by Taylor Larimore
Sun Nov 16, 2014 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWINX (Wellesley Inc.)
Replies: 44
Views: 4818

Re: portfolio allocation

Wells Fargo Private Bank gave me a proposed allocation which included things that I'm not really interested in implementing since I don' t know how to such as Event Driven hedge, EquityHedge, and Commodities so I just upped some of the other classes to account for them early30s: Welcome to the Bogl...
by Taylor Larimore
Sun Nov 16, 2014 9:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: portfolio allocation
Replies: 8
Views: 969

The "pulse" of world financial markets?

Why is it that you want to keep your finger "on the pulse" of world financial markets?

Asset_chaos:

Thank you for a very good question I would like to see answered.

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Sun Nov 16, 2014 9:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One Source to follow world markets ?
Replies: 26
Views: 1798

Premiums can be raised on long-term care policies.

So now they've got this boat anchor of old policies that is dragging them down. Bogleheads: I don't understand why Genworth's long-term care policies are "dragging them down." It is my understanding that long-term care policies have a clause in their contracts allowing them to raise futur...
by Taylor Larimore
Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "The dangers of long-term care insurance"
Replies: 132
Views: 12895

Re: Taylor Larimore, My Favorite Teacher

Michael (my co-author) and others who replied:

Unless you are as old as I am (90), you have no idea how much it means to me to have a former student or Boglehead remember and thank me for lessons learned.

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:28 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Taylor Larimore, My Favorite Teacher
Replies: 13
Views: 1989

Need more information

Waterman:

It would be helpful if you would list each of your funds showing it's percentage of your total portfolio and indicating if the fund is in a taxable or tax-advantaged account (IRA, 401K, etc.). Use the format here: ASKING PORTFOLIO QUESTIONS

Thank you and best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Sun Nov 16, 2014 3:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Selection in Core 4 Portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 428

Portfolio suggestion

401K (57% of total; $26.9k) 55%, $26.0K, SPTN 500 INDEX INST (FXSIX), ER 0.05% 02%, $00.9k, PIM REAL RETURN INST (PRRIX), ER 0.47% IRA @ Vanguard (43% of total; $20.3k) 25%, $11.8k, Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTIAX), ER 0.14% 18%, $08.5k, Vanguard Total Bond Marke...
by Taylor Larimore
Sun Nov 16, 2014 11:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: American Funds Roth IRA - Should I Make the Move??
Replies: 30
Views: 2171

Re: Can active funds reliably beat the index? Actually, Yes

The article's ending: This confirms what I’ve been writing about for more than 20 years. Most of the time, over most time periods, most actively managed funds fail to beat a simple, low-cost index fund. As investors you and I face a problem. Thousands of brokers are flogging expensive funds with lit...
by Taylor Larimore
Fri Nov 14, 2014 10:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can active funds reliably beat the index? Actually, Yes.
Replies: 37
Views: 4607

A Christmas message

dbCooperAir:

My only Christmas message will be to the Bogleheads on this forum.

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Fri Nov 14, 2014 6:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who is mailing Holiday Cards this year?
Replies: 52
Views: 3081

"Finding, and Battling, Hidden Costs of 401(k) Plans"

Bogleheads: Bogleheads understand the importance of keeping costs low. This New York Times article is about Ronald Tussey's battle with his employer and Fidelity for apparent overcharges. His case is headed for the the U.S. Supreme Court and will affect most 401K participants. Below are excerpts: &q...
by Taylor Larimore
Fri Nov 14, 2014 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Finding, and Battling, Hidden Costs of 401(k) Plans"
Replies: 5
Views: 640

Asterisk's are often used to hide important facts.

Taylor- ** For an investment option, the expense ratio is the total annual fund or class operating expenses (before waivers or reimbursements) paid by the fund and stated as a percent of the fund's total net assets . Where the fund is not a mutual fund, the figure displayed in the expense ratio fie...
by Taylor Larimore
Thu Nov 13, 2014 9:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: American Funds Roth IRA - Should I Make the Move??
Replies: 30
Views: 2171

Loads and other expenses reduce returns

Durett: In the list of funds you provided, what does the " ** " mean in the Gross Expense Ratio column? In my opinion, it is foolish to pay 5% for every transaction (plus the expense ratio). The compound value of 5% over your lifetime is enormous. Your 401K funds should be incorporated int...
by Taylor Larimore
Thu Nov 13, 2014 1:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: American Funds Roth IRA - Should I Make the Move??
Replies: 30
Views: 2171

Re: Bogleheads, tell me about your 40's?

What did you learn, what do you wish you had done differently, or what do you wish you had known at 40?

Brian:

I wish I had known John Bogle and his selfless crusade "to give ordinary investors a fair shake."

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Thu Nov 13, 2014 1:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads, tell me about your 40's?
Replies: 91
Views: 11284

Re: Individual stocks in retirement portfolio?

I have read and heard indicates that the average investor does not succeed with individual stocks. Sailfish2: You are correct. Full-time professional money managers, on average, are unable to outperform their index. What chance do you or your "independent adviser" have? "Attempting t...
by Taylor Larimore
Thu Nov 13, 2014 12:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual stocks in retirement portfolio?
Replies: 14
Views: 629

"Market timing" definition

FRx:

This is my favorite "market timing" definition:
Portfolio changes based on market forecasts.

I agree with mhc.

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Thu Nov 13, 2014 12:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it considered "market timing" if I...
Replies: 3
Views: 448

Morningstar: "Three Funds You Can Hold Forever."

Bogleheads: Morningstar recommends three Vanguard index funds that can be held 'forever': Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) or (VTSAX) This total market tracker is the consummate core buy-and-hold investment for investors with long time horizons. It offers exposure to U.S. stocks of all sizes and st...
by Taylor Larimore
Wed Nov 12, 2014 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 946
Views: 388812

Re: Boglehead family vacations

am: Two years ago my wife and I took a delightful week's cruise on " Allure of the Seas." We were greatly impressed with the special areas and events for children--much more than I have seen on other ships. You can check it out here: http://www.cruisecritic.com/reviews/review.cfm?ShipID=53...
by Taylor Larimore
Tue Nov 11, 2014 9:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Boglehead family vacations
Replies: 42
Views: 3059

Re: A Very Special Story on Veterans Day

Michael:

Thank you for remembering.

Best wishes
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Tue Nov 11, 2014 9:10 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: A Very Special Story on Veterans Day
Replies: 4
Views: 560

"Total Return vs. Investor Return"

Bogleheads: Morningstar has an informative article about investor returns lagging fund returns because investors jump in and out at the wrong time (more support for Stay-the-course ). Morningstar compares the once-famed Fairholme Fund managed by Bruce Berkowitz with Vanguard's S&P 500 Index Fund...
by Taylor Larimore
Tue Nov 11, 2014 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Total Return vs. Investor Return"
Replies: 1
Views: 465

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting Doesn't Seem Like a Great Idea

Forgive me for prying...I do so as neophyte in taxable investments...if you could start over, you would simply buy and hold and not tax loss harvest at all? Do I understand you correctly? tdonline: I am glad you asked. " Buy and hold " is not precise. I would, of course, tax-loss harvest ...
by Taylor Larimore
Mon Nov 10, 2014 7:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting Doesn't Seem Like a Great Idea
Replies: 52
Views: 4194

If I could start over . . .

Taylor, is this how you keep to your 3 fund portfolio, by selling and buying the same fund after 31 days? tdonline: Unfortunately, I am locked into funds purchased long ago that I cannot sell without triggering a large capital-gain tax (which will be cancelled at my death). I'm 90. If I could start...
by Taylor Larimore
Mon Nov 10, 2014 5:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting Doesn't Seem Like a Great Idea
Replies: 52
Views: 4194

Take the tax-loss when it is available.

For those of you who do TLH, what is the trigger amount (or percent) of loss that leads you to sell? I can imagine doing it in ~$3000X increments of loss so that you offset X number of years' worth of taxes, but is that what people actually do? Ganacel: I have not been able to take a tax-loss for m...
by Taylor Larimore
Mon Nov 10, 2014 2:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting Doesn't Seem Like a Great Idea
Replies: 52
Views: 4194

Re: Happy Birthday, Marines!

Rick:

My respect and admiration goes to you, Mel, and all the rest of our brave Boglehead Marines.

Thank you for your service to our country!

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Mon Nov 10, 2014 1:23 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Happy 239th Birthday, U.S. Marine Corps
Replies: 20
Views: 755

Re: Roth IRA.. Am I understanding this correctly?

sdickens: This is really a comparison of investing in Roth VS a general after-tax account. sdickens: I'm not sure about your question. If you are asking: " which is better for retirement: A Roth or a taxable account?" the Roth is better because all of its growth and its distributions are t...
by Taylor Larimore
Mon Nov 10, 2014 12:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth IRA.. Am I understanding this correctly?
Replies: 12
Views: 1669

Answer to questions

sdickens: I will attempt to answer your questions: Is the only 'pitfall' of designating money as Roth the ability to access the gains on the investments before the age of 59.5 without penalty? Most investors consider the Roth's liquidity as a ' plus .' Is there any need to consider what your current...
by Taylor Larimore
Mon Nov 10, 2014 12:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth IRA.. Am I understanding this correctly?
Replies: 12
Views: 1669

Re: Need an opinion

New to investing and I have a basic question. If I had $1K to invest, which one would be better and why? PZA, expense ratio 0.28, $25/share -mutual fund ABHYX, expense ratio 0.60, $9/share -etf Thx Latestart: Welcome to the Bogleheads forum! The share price is immaterial. The expense ratio is impor...
by Taylor Larimore
Mon Nov 10, 2014 12:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Need an opinion
Replies: 7
Views: 951

Re: Extra $1000 per month - what should we do?

Cigarman:

If you are going to need the money in 2-3 years, it would be a mistake to pay down your mortgage which will make that money relatively untouchable.

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Mon Nov 10, 2014 7:09 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Extra $1000 per month - what should we do?
Replies: 3
Views: 930
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