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by Taylor Larimore
Fri May 29, 2015 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: are any of these funds keepers ??
Replies: 4
Views: 377

Low cost funds beat high cost funds

jbt62: Welcome to the Bogleheads Forum! totally new to the forum and could really use some advice. lss, I have spent the last 20 years in my prudential 401k investing equally in the s&p 500, 400, and Russell 2000. in jan 2015, after looking at my brothers portfolio, I decided to shift to a self-...
by Taylor Larimore
Thu May 28, 2015 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond portfolio YTM> 3%
Replies: 24
Views: 1400

Total Bond Market Index Fund

Taylor, Would your recommendation remain even for someone in the accumulation phase who has the time to ride out any dip in value? MindTheGAAP In my opinion ANY good quality, low-cost, diversified, short- or intermediate-term bond fund will do the job of providing safety in a portfolio whether in t...
by Taylor Larimore
Thu May 28, 2015 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Risk-Managed Momentum Outperforms
Replies: 11
Views: 1267

Momentum strategies can be disappointing

Bogleheads: FUNDX Upgrader uses a momentum strategy. http://www.fundxfunds.com/fundx-investment-group Like many other investment strategies designed to beat the market, FUNDX is now in the bottom 17% of its category for 10-year performance http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.a...
by Taylor Larimore
Thu May 28, 2015 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are You Devoting Too Much Time (and Money) to Niche Asset Classes?"
Replies: 45
Views: 3459

When experts disagree?

I think Taylor also says, "When experts disagree, it probably does not matter."

leeraar:

Thank you.

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Thu May 28, 2015 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond portfolio YTM> 3%
Replies: 24
Views: 1400

Now I get it.

That post was meant to be firmly tongue in cheek! lol (I assumed that the winky face gave it away, aside from the fact that I thought it was funny) I agree that no one can forecast stock or bond returns, and that was the point of my tongue-in-cheekiness. mptfan: Now I get it. :wink: Best wishes. Ta...
by Taylor Larimore
Thu May 28, 2015 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2 Year Boglehead anniversary
Replies: 4
Views: 521

Re: 2 Year Boglehead anniversary

My second year as a Boglehead was not nearly as exciting as my first: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=140040 My portfolio asset allocation is identical to where it was last year. All of our accounts are at officially at Vanguard except the ones that have to be somewhere else...
by Taylor Larimore
Thu May 28, 2015 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are You Devoting Too Much Time (and Money) to Niche Asset Classes?"
Replies: 45
Views: 3459

Re: "Are You Devoting Too Much Time (and Money) to Niche Asset Classes?"

RadAudit wrote:Thanks for the post.

But, you do know this is going to start a catfight?

RadAudit:

When I am unsure what to do I listen to experts.

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Thu May 28, 2015 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any impartial advocates for the other point of view?
Replies: 31
Views: 2401

The Three Fund Portfolio

If you choose a simple 3 fund portfolio, it takes very little time and does not require much understanding of investments.

This is a link to The Three Fund Portfolio.

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Thu May 28, 2015 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are You Devoting Too Much Time (and Money) to Niche Asset Classes?"
Replies: 45
Views: 3459

"Are You Devoting Too Much Time (and Money) to Niche Asset Classes?"

Bogleheads: Few people know more about personal investing than Christine Benz, author and Morningstar's Director of Personal Finance. Christine is also a permanent member of our Panel of Experts at Boglehead Conferences. This is her latest article on Morningstar's homepage: Are You Devoting Too Much...
by Taylor Larimore
Thu May 28, 2015 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond portfolio YTM> 3%
Replies: 24
Views: 1400

Re: Bond portfolio YTM> 3%

I am retired and my IPS requires that my bond portfolio YTM be > 3% (long term inflation +1). My IPS requires that my bond portfolio YTM be > 8%. :wink: mptfan: No one can forecast stock or bond fund returns. I would remove that part of your IPS (Investment Policy Statement). Best wishes. Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Thu May 28, 2015 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: just starting roth- suggetion help
Replies: 3
Views: 279

Re: just starting roth- suggestion help

Dave:

You asked the same or similar question earlier in the day. This was your reply:
Thank you everyone for your time and responses. I think that cemented my decision and will go with the total market. Thank you.

Do you have additional questions?

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Thu May 28, 2015 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond portfolio YTM> 3%
Replies: 24
Views: 1400

Re: Bond portfolio YTM> 3%

Correct me if I am wrong. Is it not a fact that no matter what happens in between, if I hold the fund to maturity, in the case if VCIT, for the next 7.5 years (maturity shown for this fund), reinvesting dividends, and if there is no defaults, I should expect to get the SEC yield, or about 3%? mpt f...
by Taylor Larimore
Thu May 28, 2015 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond portfolio YTM> 3%
Replies: 24
Views: 1400

Bonds are for safety

I am retired and my IPS requires that my bond portfolio YTM be > 3% (long term inflation +1). I have set up my portfolio so that I do not need to touch the bond portfolio in about 7 years (I have a 7 year source of spending cash - CDs, TIPs, etc). I have considered two approaches: A. Sell a portion...
by Taylor Larimore
Thu May 28, 2015 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: individual cap index funds vs total stock market index
Replies: 5
Views: 432

Good decision.

davew1050 wrote:Thank you everyone for your time and responses. I think that cemented my decision and will go with the total market. Thank you.

Davew1050:

Good decision! Come back if you have more questions.

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Wed May 27, 2015 10:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Landscaping architect?
Replies: 12
Views: 963

"What are the benefits of landscaping."

Artibug:

We used a landscape architect on one of our homes. It was money well spent.

Use the link below for the benefits of a good landscape architect:

http://www.harlowgardens.com/benefits/

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Wed May 27, 2015 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: individual cap index funds vs total stock market index
Replies: 5
Views: 432

Re: individual cap index funds vs total stock market index

Dave: Welcome to the Bogleheads Forum! Hey everyone. I am hoping to start contributing to a Roth in the very near future. After looking at the different Vanguard funds it seems the individual cap indexes actually perform better separately than just selecting the total stock market fund. I would like...
by Taylor Larimore
Wed May 27, 2015 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VXF vs FSEMX - Tax efficiency and returns [Extended market funds]
Replies: 9
Views: 496

Ticker symbols plus fund names.

Bogleheads:

For maximum replies, may I suggest that we give the fund name as well as the ticker symbol. Few of us have memorized ticker symbols.

Thank you and best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Wed May 27, 2015 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: vanguard fund performance since inception
Replies: 4
Views: 380

Past Performance figures are dangerous

pedsEDdoc:

Past performance figures are interesting but they are dangerous:
Jack Bogle: "The biggest mistake investors make is looking backward at performance and thinking it’ll recur in the future."

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Wed May 27, 2015 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1105
Views: 511282

The Three Fund Portfolio -- Very reassuring.

Bogleheads: I live on the 35th floor of a condominium in Miami, Florida. At least once a day I walk out on our balcony and look at the thousands of businesses, big and small, stretched-out below me. I know that every corporation I can see is trying to increase its stock value. Total Stock Market Ind...
by Taylor Larimore
Wed May 27, 2015 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Capitalization Flaw in Index Funds
Replies: 11
Views: 1114

Total Stock Market Index Funds -- Reassuring

BuyAndHoldOn: I live on the 35th floor of a condominium in Miami, Florida. At least once a day I walk out on our balcony and look at the thousands of businesses, big and small, stretched-out below me. I know that every corporation I can see is trying to increase its stock value. Total Stock Market I...
by Taylor Larimore
Wed May 27, 2015 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 101
Views: 5396

24 financial risks

24 kinds of risk from Howard Marks... 1 Losing money – The possibility of permanent loss is the main form of risk. 2 Falling short – Not having to make necessary payouts or income to live on. 3 Missing opportunities – Not taking enough risk. 4 FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) – Jumping on the bandwagon o...
by Taylor Larimore
Wed May 27, 2015 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore
Replies: 86
Views: 8979

Why Total Bond Market Index Fund?

Bogleheads: Having worked for two agencies that issue bonds, I know that higher yield nearly always means higher risk. There is no "free lunch" (except diversification) in bonds. We sometimes forget that bonds are for safety--not higher returns. Stock funds are for higher returns. Comparin...
by Taylor Larimore
Wed May 27, 2015 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Day trading
Replies: 19
Views: 1422

Re: Day traders lose 7% annually

Is day trading a good idea to try to make money? If so, what book would you recommend for beginners? Jon: Welcome to the Bogleheads Forum! "Odean and Barber tested over 66,400 investors between 1991 and 1997. Their findings: "The most active traders earned 7% less annually than buy-and-ho...
by Taylor Larimore
Wed May 27, 2015 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worried about longevity risk...this isn't good news
Replies: 18
Views: 2612

The "good" annuity

I guess that confirms for the average investor that if you have need for an annuity product, that the SPIA is the way to go. It must not be as profitable for the companies as their other products- which should be good for the individual investor! gasdoc: I agree that the big advantage of SPIAs is t...
by Taylor Larimore
Wed May 27, 2015 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FTSE Emerging Markets Index adds China A shares
Replies: 15
Views: 1044

Re: FTSE Emerging Markets Index adds China A shares

Here we go again after the PXSV index changes. I just heard that the FTSE Emerging Markets Index will be adding China A shares to the index with two new transitional indexes, starting with a 5% weight, eventually increasing(when fully investable by foreign investors) to a weighting of 32%. This wil...
by Taylor Larimore
Wed May 27, 2015 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellington & Wellesley
Replies: 32
Views: 3696

Re: Wellington & Wellesley

So, why are Wellington and Wellesley funds different from all other Vanguard active funds?

jsl11:

Bogleheads are not all immune to "past performance."

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Wed May 27, 2015 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would you compliment 500 Index with Extended Market or Tax Advantaged Small Cap?
Replies: 11
Views: 1048

Re: Would you compliment 500 Index with Extended Market or Tax Advantaged Small Cap?

One has a 401k with poor options and so opts for the only reasonable fund, the Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (VFINX) (ER = 0.17) As a compliment to the 401k S&P 500 index, which of the following would you rather hold in a taxable account? 1. Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund Admiral...
by Taylor Larimore
Tue May 26, 2015 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to be a successful fund manager
Replies: 12
Views: 1195

Re: How to be a successful fund manager

BogleInvestorLondon:

Thank you for your reply.

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Tue May 26, 2015 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "6 Mistakes to Avoid With Taxable Accounts"
Replies: 4
Views: 1872

"6 Mistakes to Avoid With Taxable Accounts"

Bogleheads:

Morningstar has a video with Christine Benz and Jason Stipp discussing many aspects of taxable accounts. It's more complicated than the title suggests. This is the link:

6 Mistakes to Avoid With Taxable Accounts

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Tue May 26, 2015 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Guide to Investing's international allocation confusion
Replies: 9
Views: 1047

Re: Guide to Investing's international allocation confusion

If they do a 3rd edition of Bogleheads' Guide to Investing I really hope they improve the cohesion of this chapter. Bellcross: I am one of the authors of The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing and appreciate your suggestion. I agree we can significantly improve the cohesion of the "International S...
by Taylor Larimore
Tue May 26, 2015 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Does Your Fund Manager Consistently Beat the Stock Market?"
Replies: 42
Views: 3343

Professor Sharpe

Sharpe considered there to only be one truly passive investment: TSM. All other portfolios are, in his view, active.

TwoByFour:

Can you give a citation for the above?

Thank you and best wishes
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Mon May 25, 2015 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's so great about simplicity?
Replies: 118
Views: 8966

Re: What's so great about simplicity?

Leeraar wrote:I spent my life going from complex to simple.


Albert Einstein said much the same thing:

"The five ascending levels of intellect are: smart, intelligent, brilliant, genius, simple."


Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Mon May 25, 2015 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Does Your Fund Manager Consistently Beat the Stock Market?"
Replies: 42
Views: 3343

It can be dangerous to invest in overperforming funds.

** According to Morningstar, Fidelity Magellan (FMAGX) 10-year return is now in the bottom 7% of its category; Bill Miller's Leg Mason fund (LMVTX), which beat the S&P 500 Index 15-years in a row, is in the bottom 1% of its category. "Past performance does not forecast future returns."...
by Taylor Larimore
Mon May 25, 2015 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Does Your Fund Manager Consistently Beat the Stock Market?"
Replies: 42
Views: 3343

"Guilty of improper measurement."

And this is despite the UK being one the few markets in which the majority of active funds have outperformed over 3, 5 and 10 years - (72, 75 and 52% respectively) http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03255/PF-tracker-fund-gr_3255858a.jpg Maynard F. Speer: I question the colorful chart. &quo...
by Taylor Larimore
Mon May 25, 2015 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do we need long-term care insurance?
Replies: 14
Views: 1509

Re: Do we need long-term care insurance?

spartanap: Thank you for the additional information. In my opinion, you would probably be wise to invest the $230/month ($2,760/year) premiums into your portfolio. At 6% for 30 years $230/month amounts to over $80,000. Together with your home equity, now $200,000, plus "1,400,000 of investable ...
by Taylor Larimore
Mon May 25, 2015 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do we need long-term care insurance?
Replies: 14
Views: 1509

Re: Do we need long-term care insurance?

spartanap: Thank you for the additional information. In my opinion, you would probably be wise to invest the $230/month ($2,760/year) into your portfolio. At 6% for 30 years $230/month amounts to over $80,000. Together with your home equity, now $200,000, plus "1,400,000 of invest able assets&q...
by Taylor Larimore
Mon May 25, 2015 12:26 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Memorial Day
Replies: 18
Views: 1096

Memorial Day

Bogleheads: Memorial Day is a federal holiday in the United States for remembering the men and women in the armed services who gave their lives for our freedom. These are the real heroes in any war. I was lucky to return home after surviving the Battle of the Bulge during World War II. You can read ...
by Taylor Larimore
Sun May 24, 2015 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do we need long-term care insurance?
Replies: 14
Views: 1509

Questions

My wife (53) and I (54) have been looking into long-term care insurance options. Thought we would ask fellow Bogleheads for some advice. Here's our situation: We both took our state pensions last year. Pays a little over 60K/year no cola. If my wife dies, my pension would be 36K/yr. If I die, her p...
by Taylor Larimore
Sun May 24, 2015 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 101
Views: 5396

"Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

Thanks Taylor. I would love to take the credit for this fantastic definition of risk and volatility, but this was taken from Warren Buffett's 2014 annual letter to his shareholders. When another poster quoted this, they failed to mention it, so it looked liked I wrote it. I'm flattered you thought ...
by Taylor Larimore
Sun May 24, 2015 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Does Your Fund Manager Consistently Beat the Stock Market?"
Replies: 42
Views: 3343

Capital-gain tax when exchanging taxable funds

Bogleheads: A VERY important consideration which is seldom mentioned, is the capital-gain tax that must usually be paid when a profitable fund in a taxable account is exchanged for a "better" fund. Funds in taxable accounts should be tax-efficient, preferably indexed, and suitable to be he...
by Taylor Larimore
Sun May 24, 2015 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 101
Views: 5396

Re: Definition of "Financial Risk"

Bogleheads: This is my favorite definition of Financial Risk : " The probability of not meeting our financial goal(s). " Best wishes. Taylor Is that also your favorite definition of Financial Volatility ? Ron Ron: Financial Volatility is a common definition of Financial Risk , however it ...
by Taylor Larimore
Sun May 24, 2015 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The end of the nest egg
Replies: 30
Views: 7076

Safe Withdrawal Rates? Complexity vs. Simplicity.

Bogleheads: This is a post I made a few years ago on the subject: One of the great mysteries to me are the Great Debates over "Safe Withdrawal Rates (SWR) ." I put Safe Withdrawal Rates into Google and it came up with more than 16,000 hits. One wonders how people managed to retire without ...
by Taylor Larimore
Sun May 24, 2015 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 101
Views: 5396

Definition of "Financial Risk"

Bogleheads:

This is my favorite definition of Financial Risk:

"The probability of not meeting our financial goal(s)."

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Sun May 24, 2015 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 101
Views: 5396

Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.

Stemikger (and others):

I would appreciate your explanation which will be educational for us all.

Thank you and best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Sun May 24, 2015 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1105
Views: 511282

International Investing

Kevin: Thank you for your kind remarks. A good argument FOR international investing is this white paper by Vanguard: Global equities: Balancing home bias and diversification The best argument I have seen AGAINST international investing is Chapter 8, " Global Investing" in " Common Sen...
by Taylor Larimore
Sat May 23, 2015 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore
Replies: 86
Views: 8979

Re: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore

Taylor -- aren't these quotes mostly about the stock market? Yes, but many apply to the total bond market as well. Frankly, on this particular subject I was expecting an "when experts disagree, it probably doesn't matter". I like your quotation. In my opinion, ANY low-cost, good-quality, ...
by Taylor Larimore
Sat May 23, 2015 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Different funds
Replies: 10
Views: 769

One company or more ?

If I choose a 4 fund portfolio, is it better to choose all 4 funds from the same company (like all Vanguard or all Schwab) or does it not matter? Let's also say commission is not a factor. sens: There are many advantages in being with just one good company like Vanguard: 1. You know the company hol...
by Taylor Larimore
Sat May 23, 2015 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advice from John Bogle and Warren Buffett
Replies: 35
Views: 2699

Re: Advice from John Bogle

Bolgleheads:

When experts disagree it is often because it makes no foreseeable difference.

Jack Bogle wrote:
"When there are multiple solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."

Best wishes.
Taylor
by Taylor Larimore
Sat May 23, 2015 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore
Replies: 86
Views: 8979

Re: Not your father's Total Bond Market Fund anymore

Why obsess over representing the market anyway? Ogd: These experts answer your question: Christine Benz, Morningstar Director of Personal Finance : "The no-brainer holdings if you have taxable accounts are broad-market index funds." Bill Bernstein, financial author and advisor: "If y...
by Taylor Larimore
Fri May 22, 2015 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I crazy to have this asset allocation?
Replies: 21
Views: 3019

Complexity vs. Simplicity?

I've put the other 1/2 of my portfolio into a more typical 60% equity/40% bond portfolio, Turtlesaliva: I have little doubt that your simple "60% equity/40% bond portfolio" will outperform the more exotic other 1/2 of your portfolio over the long-term. " Simplicity is the master key ...

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