Search found 190 matches

Return to advanced search

Re: Alpo risk in retirement: Overblown?

KyleAAA wrote:Even in the golden age of pensions, most workers still didn't have one. So yes, the Alpo analogy is DRAMATICALLY overblown.



I remember reading stories how elderly women on fixed pensions were eating cat food , back in the seventies or eighties.

I wonder if that was the golden age.
by TO39
Thu Jul 03, 2014 1:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alpo risk in retirement: Overblown?
Replies: 41
Views: 2592

What is affirmative insurance?

I am buying a property where apparently there is a deed of trust that was not released properly. The title company says they will issue an affirmative insurance policy. The lender might approve this. What does affirmative insurance mean? The town house is 70,000. the deed of trust is 456,000 from th...
by TO39
Thu Jun 05, 2014 9:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is affirmative insurance?
Replies: 1
Views: 171

Interesting artcle on inflation and mortgages

I enjoyed this article on how inflation affects fixed rate mortgages.

http://allfinancialmatters.com/2010/09/ ... -mortgage/
by TO39
Sat May 31, 2014 10:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting artcle on inflation and mortgages
Replies: 14
Views: 1259

Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!

I'm open to being persuaded otherwise but would need to see a calculator of some kind. This has been done numerous times. Simply stated you put the asset with the highest tax cost in the tax advantaged account. In the 25% tax bracket a ten year Treasury with a 2% coupon has a tax cost of 50 bps ann...
by TO39
Mon May 26, 2014 4:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 135
Views: 15399

Re: Rate My Portfolio

I have also read the expense ratio difference doesn't matter with these two real estate funds. The reason has something to do with what you posted. It has to do with the real estate being held directly with the TIAA CREF fund, "I posted on your point #1 before but I will ask again, why do you p...
by TO39
Mon May 26, 2014 12:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rate My Portfolio
Replies: 118
Views: 6786

Re: "Treasuries: A better safe haven than gold"

I think the last paragraph in the article says it all. By contrast, an investment in gold could result in big gains, but based on its volatile history, a bust isn't out of the realm of possibility either. Clients who are comfortable with gold's unique risks should view an investment in the context o...
by TO39
Wed May 21, 2014 9:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Treasuries: A better safe haven than gold"
Replies: 38
Views: 2804

Re: Going Offroad ["play money" investing]

You could try Folio Fn for a play account, for $290 a year. You get unlimited free trades if you do it right.

They also have a play money account. You could try for free.
by TO39
Sun May 18, 2014 10:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going Offroad ["play money" investing]
Replies: 73
Views: 4549

Re: Federal reserve balance sheet may take 5-8 years to shri

Good question, I would like to see what effect the knowledgeable people here think this will have on investing.
by TO39
Fri May 09, 2014 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal reserve balance sheet may take 5-8 years to shrink
Replies: 41
Views: 4347

Re: POLL: the WORST financial advice you've given/received?

WORST ADVICE THAT I RECEIVED: "You should NOT pay off your house and keep your money invested in the market." April 2001 RUNNER UP "Get the largest mortgage you are qualified for." WORST ADVICE I HAVE GIVEN Encouraging my FIL to invest in the market ... when he was sitting on a ...
by TO39
Wed Apr 30, 2014 4:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: the WORST financial advice you've given/received?
Replies: 61
Views: 15384

Re: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio

Thanks for this post. I hope it generates a lot of discussion on the permanent portfolio.
by TO39
Tue Apr 29, 2014 9:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog: Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 79
Views: 8001

Re: electronic signatures: are they safe and easy?

Great, Thanks for all the help
by TO39
Mon Apr 07, 2014 4:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: electronic signatures: are they safe and easy?
Replies: 7
Views: 502

electronic signatures: are they safe and easy?

Is electronic signature a good way to make an offer to buy a house that is 300 miles away?
by TO39
Sun Apr 06, 2014 9:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: electronic signatures: are they safe and easy?
Replies: 7
Views: 502

Re: issues concerning 401k rollover

Thanks again


I will look up the link provided. I think I might find what I need there.
by TO39
Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: issues concerning 401k rollover
Replies: 7
Views: 546

Re: issues concerning 401k rollover

Thanks for the replies,


My 401k has pre tax monies, 401k roth monies, and post tax monies. I wanted to transfer this money to a Roth IRA, a regular IRA, and a taxable account, respectfully. or just a Roth IRA and a regular IRA if that made sense.
by TO39
Sun Feb 23, 2014 7:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: issues concerning 401k rollover
Replies: 7
Views: 546

issues concerning 401k rollover

What are the issues with a 401k rollover?

The 401k has pre tax money, 401k ROTH money, and post Tax money.
by TO39
Sat Feb 22, 2014 3:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: issues concerning 401k rollover
Replies: 7
Views: 546

Why did CEF drop30 cents after closing today?

Why did CEF Canada Limited Fund drop 30 cents after closing today?

Thanks for any replies
by TO39
Fri Jan 10, 2014 5:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did CEF drop30 cents after closing today?
Replies: 1
Views: 351

article on US currency reserve status and gold

I am interested in people's thoughts on this article if possible without getting political


http://seekingalpha.com/article/1578602 ... ncy-status
by TO39
Sat Jul 27, 2013 10:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: article on US currency reserve status and gold
Replies: 4
Views: 554

Re: I do not understand CCFs like PCRIX...

good question, I too couldn't understand why pcrix didn't more closely follow inflation, still don't
by TO39
Thu Jul 04, 2013 11:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I do not understand CCFs like PCRIX...
Replies: 6
Views: 833

Re: Active beats passive in 7 year "bet" (again)

according to my math petrocelli had a 30 dollar headstart
by TO39
Mon Jul 01, 2013 8:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active beats passive in 7 year "bet" (again)
Replies: 51
Views: 3785

good article for those thinking of buying gold silver

I thought this article would be interesting to those thinking of adding to their precious metal holdings.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1526652 ... e_readmore
by TO39
Fri Jun 28, 2013 11:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: good article for those thinking of buying gold silver
Replies: 0
Views: 375

Re: How Commodities Can Help a Portfolio

to Bradley: Larry has posted data from several different periods. You have posted none. The reason selecting 1973 is important is that was the start of a long period when long term treasuries and stocks were both doing badly as the following chart shows, It has 25% gold as the part of the portfolio ...
by TO39
Sun Jun 09, 2013 6:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Commodities Can Help a Portfolio
Replies: 129
Views: 8649

Re: How Commodities Can Help a Portfolio

to afan, you said As with stocks, there would be a performance drag due to costs, and but there could not be a positive alpha from the COMMODITIES investing. Of course, there cannot be positive alpha to commodities investors overall, there have to be negative alpha losers as well. How does that expl...
by TO39
Sat Jun 08, 2013 11:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Commodities Can Help a Portfolio
Replies: 129
Views: 8649

Re: How Commodities Can Help a Portfolio

That was my point. now Morningstar has 12 years of data for VTI and pcrix. They have both changed. Now PCRIX since inception out performs VTI and VTSMX http://quote.morningstar.com/fund/chart.aspx?t=PCRIX&region=USA&culture=en-US&statePara=%7Bsecurities%3A%5B%7Bn%3A%22PIMCO%20Commodity%2...
by TO39
Fri Jun 07, 2013 4:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Commodities Can Help a Portfolio
Replies: 129
Views: 8649

Re: How Commodities Can Help a Portfolio

amazingly enuff, the Morningstar growth chart now has pcrix outperforming VTI since inception. They added another 8 months to the starting period. http://quote.morningstar.com/fund/chart.aspx?t=PCRIX&region=USA&culture=en-US&statePara=%7Bsecurities%3A%5B%7Bn%3A%22PIMCO%20Commodity%20Real...
by TO39
Fri Jun 07, 2013 3:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Commodities Can Help a Portfolio
Replies: 129
Views: 8649

Re: How Commodities Can Help a Portfolio

repeated assertion that another fund would do this or that, but never the charts or data that back it up Here is some data. The fund the OP uses and recommends for commodities is PIMCOs PCRIX. The fund went live in 2002 so you can look at ten year data. The Commodity fund returned $16,997.19 over 1...
by TO39
Thu Jun 06, 2013 9:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Commodities Can Help a Portfolio
Replies: 129
Views: 8649

Re: How Commodities Can Help a Portfolio

Seems like some people have an axe to grind and just resort to arguments from authority. This is not very convincing against arguments with a good theoretical explanation and actual data, especially when the authorities in question have given dubious advice on other investing questions. Maybe this ...
by TO39
Thu Jun 06, 2013 6:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Commodities Can Help a Portfolio
Replies: 129
Views: 8649

Re: How Commodities Can Help a Portfolio

To afan

My understanding is DBC is an index fund that tries to replicate the commodities market, not beat it. there would be tracking error, but that should balance out to zero. And again someone requested what did a real commodities fund with expense ratio do. This was the best I could find.
by TO39
Thu Jun 06, 2013 4:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Commodities Can Help a Portfolio
Replies: 129
Views: 8649

Re: How Commodities Can Help a Portfolio

To AFAN It is not obvious to me from the chart. It may be that there would be a reduction in variance without much penalty, or perhaps an increase, in mean return. That sounds to me like it helped. lower volatility without much cost, just like Larry said The chart could not tell us how well the comm...
by TO39
Thu Jun 06, 2013 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Commodities Can Help a Portfolio
Replies: 129
Views: 8649

Re: How Commodities Can Help a Portfolio

I think this chart clearly shows that adding commodities would have helped if rebalancing bands were used in the period from 2008 on. http://quote.morningstar.com/fund/chart.aspx?t=VTSMX&region=USA&culture=en-US&statePara=%7Bsecurities%3A%5B%7Bn%3A%22Vanguard%20Total%20Stock%20Mkt%20Idx%...
by TO39
Thu Jun 06, 2013 1:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Commodities Can Help a Portfolio
Replies: 129
Views: 8649

Re: Fed tigthening? What to do? How markets act

Jfet wrote:
TO39 wrote:
scone wrote:If you add the inflation plot to that though it looks like they all performed poorly (or maybe I am not reading the chart correctly)



This chart subtracts inflation from everything except inflation, crazy,

It tells you that in the small print at the bottom
by TO39
Fri May 31, 2013 4:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed tigthening? What to do? How markets act
Replies: 41
Views: 2979

Re: Fed tigthening? What to do? How markets act

Are you sure that't the right URL? It looks like the first plot. In any case, wouldn't it be better to start looking at it from the 50's, when IIRC bonds came up from the very low levels of the war? It seems to me that's somewhat comparable.[/quote] I am just using the years Browser selected, becaus...
by TO39
Fri May 31, 2013 4:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed tigthening? What to do? How markets act
Replies: 41
Views: 2979

Re: Fed tigthening? What to do? How markets act

I can't seem to post the chart I want. I will try again http://www.longtermreturns.com/p/historical-investment-returns.html?fromyear=1973&toyear=1981&real=1&log=1&plots=500_5yr_Bills&customplots1=500_1__20yr_1__Bills_1__Gold_1&customplots2=10yr_4&customplots3=20yr_2__Bill...
by TO39
Fri May 31, 2013 4:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed tigthening? What to do? How markets act
Replies: 41
Views: 2979

Re: Fed tigthening? What to do? How markets act

[quote="scone"]How about these-- the bond side is heavy on t-bills, with some 5 year mixed in. And there's a definite tilt to small caps. It seems to work under all kinds of conditions, so far at least! :beer here's your portfolios for the time period under discussion. They did great excep...
by TO39
Fri May 31, 2013 4:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed tigthening? What to do? How markets act
Replies: 41
Views: 2979

Re: Fed tigthening? What to do? How markets act

even cash wasn't too good, if T bills were representative of cash http://www.longtermreturns.com/p/historical-investment-returns.html?fromyear=1973&toyear=1981&real=1&log=1&plots=500_5yr_Bills&customplots1=500_1__20yr_1__Bills_1__Gold_1&customplots2=10yr_4&customplots3=20...
by TO39
Fri May 31, 2013 4:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed tigthening? What to do? How markets act
Replies: 41
Views: 2979

Re: Fed tigthening? What to do? How markets act

One of the largest bond drawdowns occurred in the period between the 3rd quarter of 1965 and the start of 1970. The rate on corporate Aaa bonds rose by 4.3% and they lost 24% nominal and another 19% in real value from inflation. During that time, the S&P 500 also lost about 16% real. I think it...
by TO39
Fri May 31, 2013 4:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed tigthening? What to do? How markets act
Replies: 41
Views: 2979

Re: If you could have only one fund, what would it be?

IlikeJackB wrote:Wellington ..... with the same reasoning as bertilak. Well done! :beer

Age 63, retired.



I also like Wellington, but would also have some gold and silver coins, since this appears to be acceptable
by TO39
Fri May 31, 2013 11:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you could have only one fund, what would it be?
Replies: 124
Views: 23177

Re: Lazy / 3 funds portfolio with ETFs for European (ITA) pe

My portfolio: 50% stocks 35% bonds 15% cash Compound annual growth ratio (CAGR) = 7% if stocks go down 20% or bonds go down 10% I rebalance. If not I rebalance yearly. What if stocks go up 30 and bonds down 8? Doyou rebalance then? Just curious. Also I don't see the need to rebalance yearly if you ...
by TO39
Fri May 24, 2013 11:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lazy / 3 funds portfolio with ETFs for European (ITA) people
Replies: 19
Views: 1535

Re: 63yo moved 401k to 100% cash, how/when to restore AA?

Here is a link to chart of S&P 500 PE. It updates daily.


http://www.multpl.com/
by TO39
Fri May 24, 2013 10:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 63yo moved 401k to 100% cash, how/when to restore AA?
Replies: 32
Views: 3684

Re: Gold

This chart has gold staying close to US inflation over very long periods. lots of volatility though http://www.longtermreturns.com/p/historical-investment-returns.html?fromyear=1926&toyear=2012&real=0&log=1&plots=500_Gold_Inflation&customplots1=500_2__20yr_1__Bills_1__Gold_1 edi...
by TO39
Sat May 18, 2013 10:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold
Replies: 78
Views: 4348

Re: Gold

by TO39
Sat May 18, 2013 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold
Replies: 78
Views: 4348

Re: Gold

This chart has gold staying close to US inflation over very long periods. lots of volatility though http://www.longtermreturns.com/p/histor ... _1__Gold_1 edited to add: if it tracks inflation it looks like its going down, if I have the right starting period In my up-post I pointed out that the USD...
by TO39
Sat May 18, 2013 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold
Replies: 78
Views: 4348

Re: Gold

The best projection of gold performance over time is that it will match inflation. One ounce of gold buys a nice suit today, and will continue to do so in the future. I need better performance than that. This is patently silly - did the price of a suit go up from 400 to 1800 dollars in less than a ...
by TO39
Sat May 18, 2013 12:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold
Replies: 78
Views: 4348

Re: Gold

here is a real chart comparing PP to two 50/50 portfolios; barbell and bullet There is yearly rebalancing You can change the dates if you like http://www.longtermreturns.com/p/historical-investment-returns.html?fromyear=1971&toyear=2012&real=1&log=1&plots=none&customplots1=500_1_...
by TO39
Fri May 17, 2013 4:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold
Replies: 78
Views: 4348

Re: Gold

Clive wrote:
TO39 wrote:I would like to see a chart going back longer

Try this chart

Thanks Clive, great chart
by TO39
Fri May 17, 2013 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold
Replies: 78
Views: 4348

Re: Gold

same chart with TSM added http://quote.morningstar.com/fund/chart.aspx?t=VFITX&region=USA&culture=en-US&statePara=%7Bsecurities%3A%5B%7Bn%3A%22Vanguard%20Interm-Term%20Treasury%20Inv%22%2Cids%3A%22FOUSA00FQM%7C0P00002SXW%7CCU%24%24%24%24%24USD%7C1%7C1%7CFO%7C1991-10-28%7C%7C%7Cfalse%7CUS...
by TO39
Thu May 16, 2013 8:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold
Replies: 78
Views: 4348

Re: Gold

Clive said Compare for instance a third each in LTT, 2-year T and gold, with 100% 5-year T from 1974 - 2012 inclusive (i.e. ignoring the first couple of years when gold was in effect IPO'd and 'finding its level') and This is ( I hope) what a morningstar growth chart looks like for his comparison . ...
by TO39
Thu May 16, 2013 8:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold
Replies: 78
Views: 4348

Re: Gold

I'm not sure of the definition of "gold bug", but I do keep a significant proportion of my assets in gold. I'm not too concerned about this drop, as I expect the price to continue its decade-long rise as soon as all of the weak hands have been shaken out. None of the reasons for that rise...
by TO39
Thu May 16, 2013 5:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold
Replies: 78
Views: 4348

Re: Gold

I'm not sure of the definition of "gold bug", but I do keep a significant proportion of my assets in gold. I'm not too concerned about this drop, as I expect the price to continue its decade-long rise as soon as all of the weak hands have been shaken out. None of the reasons for that rise...
by TO39
Thu May 16, 2013 2:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold
Replies: 78
Views: 4348

Re: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?

Why would this theory not work? If stocks, LTTs, and gold are all down 10 to 15%, and you needed dollars from your portfolio, you would take some from your short term treasuries. This would indeed increase your risk level, back to what you thought was appropriate in the first place. Where's the pro...
by TO39
Mon May 13, 2013 6:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 156
Views: 11796

Re: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?

The second bone I have to pick is the notion that it makes sense for an investor to split their fixed-income investment in order to have a cash or t-bill "bucket" they can draw from during the bad times. This bucket theory has been discredited numerous times. Simply stated, it doesn't wor...
by TO39
Mon May 13, 2013 5:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't people use the Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 156
Views: 11796
Next

Return to advanced search