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Re: Please explain a 3% SWR to me

On why 3% would only last 30 years, look at the cumulative inflation from 1970 t0 1990 to see where the compounded earnings went. As mentioned, that 3% was boosted by inflation for each year of retirement. The final withdrawals were several multiples of the initial amounts. I would assume with a 10...
by StarbuxInvestor
Thu Apr 24, 2014 10:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please explain a 3% SWR to me
Replies: 58
Views: 2765

Re: Please explain a 3% SWR to me

I try and try but I just can't wrap my head around someone needing 33x for a 30 year retirement. It seems if that is true it could only be because of too much risk in the portfolio. I know I am missing something. Help bring me in from the dark. Do you know how to put together a spreadsheet? If yes,...
by StarbuxInvestor
Thu Apr 24, 2014 7:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please explain a 3% SWR to me
Replies: 58
Views: 2765

Re: enough to retire?

Hello, We are age 58 and 60. Portfolio: $1M Debt: None (house and cars are all paid off) Annual Spending: $50K Asset Allocation: 40/60 stocks/fixed Social Security: We can collect 25K per year in 4 years at ages 62 and 64. Do we have enough to retire and if so, by how much margin? This will be a 5%...
by StarbuxInvestor
Wed Apr 23, 2014 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: enough to retire?
Replies: 19
Views: 1888

Re: enough to retire?

Too close for me, I want room to go to that occasional real expensive lunch and not hurt my budget. I guess I've been reading too much Mr. Money Mustache, but this statement is pretty comical to me. They idea of remaining in indentured servitude longer than necessary so I could indulge in an occasi...
by StarbuxInvestor
Wed Apr 23, 2014 3:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: enough to retire?
Replies: 19
Views: 1888

Re: enough to retire?

Your good to go. Yeah 5% withdrawal isn't going to last 30 years (especially with low stock allocations). But it will last 20 years which is more than enough to get you to the SS years (you should think about if it is worth delaying til 70 or not). One questions is how much SS will the survivor be ...
by StarbuxInvestor
Wed Apr 23, 2014 3:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: enough to retire?
Replies: 19
Views: 1888

Re: Where would you retire, if $ were no object?

The Cliffs in North and South Carolina. Beautiful communities.
by StarbuxInvestor
Wed Apr 23, 2014 11:48 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where would you retire, if $ were no object?
Replies: 62
Views: 3454

Re: Please explain a 3% SWR to me

On why 3% would only last 30 years, look at the cumulative inflation from 1970 t0 1990 to see where the compounded earnings went. As mentioned, that 3% was boosted by inflation for each year of retirement. The final withdrawals were several multiples of the initial amounts. I would assume with a 10...
by StarbuxInvestor
Wed Apr 23, 2014 11:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please explain a 3% SWR to me
Replies: 58
Views: 2765

Re: Please explain a 3% SWR to me

I think part of the reason is the general expectation that returns going forward are likely to be somewhat below historical values (which the Trinity Study was based on). That's part of the reason I'm using 3% in my planning, the other being my general habit of being somewhat financially conservati...
by StarbuxInvestor
Wed Apr 23, 2014 11:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please explain a 3% SWR to me
Replies: 58
Views: 2765

Re: Please explain a 3% SWR to me

It would seem to me a lot of the fret is about down markets in early retirement. I guess for the most part it seems very unlikely to me that savy folks suc as post on this board would always adjust if that were the case. I mean to some extent there are always end of the world scenarios that will def...
by StarbuxInvestor
Wed Apr 23, 2014 11:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please explain a 3% SWR to me
Replies: 58
Views: 2765

Go-Go, Slow Go, No Go theory

Do you believe in th Go-Go, Slow Go, No Go theory on retirement spending. And if so what age do you think you will be when you exit Go-Go and enter Slow Go.


http://designingmyok.com/wp-content/upl ... sample.jpg
by StarbuxInvestor
Wed Apr 23, 2014 11:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Go-Go, Slow Go, No Go theory
Replies: 4
Views: 692

Re: Please explain a 3% SWR to me

I try and try but I just can't wrap my head around someone needing 33x for a 30 year retirement. It seems if that is true it could only be because of too much risk in the portfolio. I know I am missing something. Help bring me in from the dark. According to the Trinity Study: http://www.bogleheads....
by StarbuxInvestor
Wed Apr 23, 2014 11:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please explain a 3% SWR to me
Replies: 58
Views: 2765

Re: Please explain a 3% SWR to me

33x is a conservative goal, for someone who is both risk averse and who desires to annuitize nothing, thus maximizing his expected estate for heirs. Most of us can do OK with a lesser multiplicative factor.. I think the desire to pass things along to heirs must be a bigger driver in this. Which in ...
by StarbuxInvestor
Wed Apr 23, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please explain a 3% SWR to me
Replies: 58
Views: 2765

Please explain a 3% SWR to me

I try and try but I just can't wrap my head around someone needing 33x for a 30 year retirement. It seems if that is true it could only be because of too much risk in the portfolio. I know I am missing something. Help bring me in from the dark.
by StarbuxInvestor
Wed Apr 23, 2014 10:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please explain a 3% SWR to me
Replies: 58
Views: 2765

Re: Why a million may not be enough

With the median household income being just about $51K/yr., I think that a whole lot of people would be very pleased with a million plus SS. People seem to forget that mortgages were once double digits and CD rates were generous.
by StarbuxInvestor
Wed Apr 23, 2014 10:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why a million may not be enough
Replies: 31
Views: 3970

Re: Do you use a dry powder/tactical asset allocation strate

I have an evolving strategy where I monitor not only my AA but the actual dollar amount of equity exposure I have. At the moment I am exposed as I want to be so I have a fairly large amount of dry powder. But I don't know if I would call it a dry powder strategy. Other people probably do they same t...
by StarbuxInvestor
Mon Apr 21, 2014 7:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you use a dry powder/tactical asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 27
Views: 2122

Re: looking at the 3 fund approach....2.3% 5 yr return ???

luberhill wrote:I did or will do 40,20,40 percent
40 total stk mkt
20 international
40 bond

Maybe you should show your math.
by StarbuxInvestor
Sun Apr 20, 2014 9:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: looking at the 3 fund approach....2.3% 5 yr return ???
Replies: 19
Views: 2371

Re: Hit your #, Still want to work, does your savings % chan

Lawman, I appreciate the perspective but I fret enough naturally and I am trying to reduce that trait.
by StarbuxInvestor
Sun Apr 20, 2014 1:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hit your #, Still want to work, does your savings % change?
Replies: 47
Views: 3874

Re: Hit your #, Still want to work, does your savings % chan

Save a year of basic expenses in a taxable account. Then go on sabbatical for a year to figure out what you want to be when you grow up. Do it. I just got back to work after taking 10 months off following taking an ERO offer from my previous employer. Realistically I have no more than 5 potential w...
by StarbuxInvestor
Sun Apr 20, 2014 9:04 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hit your #, Still want to work, does your savings % change?
Replies: 47
Views: 3874

Re: Hit your #, Still want to work, does your savings % chan

Anyone who have read my posts has figured out I am struggling with the concept of enough. Something about the realization that my years of drawing a salary are coming to an end is just causing me to want to cling to them all the more tightly. The concept of letting go a a good paycheck is very stre...
by StarbuxInvestor
Sun Apr 20, 2014 9:00 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hit your #, Still want to work, does your savings % change?
Replies: 47
Views: 3874

Re: Hit your #, Still want to work, does your savings % chan

Change nothing: what's wrong with exceeding your number? If nothing else, it's a cushion just in case you underestimated. There is nothing wrong with it per se. But for me I am saving to enable myself to be able to do certain things not just for security. I definitely wouldn't call my wife and myse...
by StarbuxInvestor
Sun Apr 20, 2014 8:48 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hit your #, Still want to work, does your savings % change?
Replies: 47
Views: 3874

Hit your #, Still want to work, does your savings % change?

Here is the scenario. You have zero debt. You are saving 25%-30% of your income each year and you hit your number but you still want to keep working for at least a couple more years. What do you do with the 25%-30% you have been saving? Do you allow yourself more toys? Keep saving but at a reduced r...
by StarbuxInvestor
Sun Apr 20, 2014 12:23 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hit your #, Still want to work, does your savings % change?
Replies: 47
Views: 3874

Re: The reverse world of retirement investing

Read it the other day, who is retired and would be a 100% stocks and 5% withdraw rate :oops: John After reading dozens of posts about 2.5%-3.% withdrawal rates I am seriously considering using a 5% rate, at least for the first decade. 5% is possible but hopefully you don't want 100% stocks also :?:...
by StarbuxInvestor
Sat Apr 19, 2014 8:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The reverse world of retirement investing
Replies: 34
Views: 4048

Re: The reverse world of retirement investing

Johm221122 wrote:Read it the other day, who is retired and would be a 100% stocks and 5% withdraw rate :oops:

John


After reading dozens of posts about 2.5%-3.% withdrawal rates I am seriously considering using a 5% rate, at least for the first decade.
by StarbuxInvestor
Sat Apr 19, 2014 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The reverse world of retirement investing
Replies: 34
Views: 4048

Re: What's Your up to the minute AA?

I do my Tax Advantaged AA weekly out of habit. Here is my current AA sans a 10%-15% position in Wellington. (1/4/2014) Domestic Equity - 30.41% International Developed Markets - 20.53% Emerging Market - 4.86% REIT - 9.83% TIPS - 5.14% Total Bond - 9.42% Cash - 19.82% (2/1/2014) Domestic Equity - 27...
by StarbuxInvestor
Sat Apr 19, 2014 7:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Your up to the minute AA?
Replies: 85
Views: 6022

Re: *poor* Bogleheads

I sometimes do math on excessive claims just for entertainment to see how plausible they are. I also take with a grain of salt any advice that holds the 1987-2000 bull market as key to it's success.
by StarbuxInvestor
Fri Apr 18, 2014 10:21 am
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: *poor* Bogleheads
Replies: 78
Views: 5345

Re: Marketed = Ripoff

davebarnes wrote:Someone is paying for all the marketing and for the sales people.
Yes, ripoff.


How is that unique to a 55 and over community?
by StarbuxInvestor
Thu Apr 17, 2014 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Over-55 communities a ripoff?
Replies: 38
Views: 2711

Re: Over-55 communities a ripoff?

Most people want smaller homes as they age. The price is usually driven more by community emenities than the actual house. Plus no kids allow to reside there.
by StarbuxInvestor
Thu Apr 17, 2014 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Over-55 communities a ripoff?
Replies: 38
Views: 2711

Re: Legal Liability Question [Sole Proprietorships vs. LLCs]

Corporate lawyer here. An LLC will provide you with a "liability shield", but you need to make sure your company is not thinly capitalized, i.e., make sure you open a bank account for the company and put some money (usually a $1000 or so) in it. But as others have mentioned, with a small ...
by StarbuxInvestor
Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Legal Liability Question [Sole Proprietorships vs. LLCs]
Replies: 6
Views: 380

Re: Legal Liability Question [Sole Proprietorships vs. LLCs]

I have a legal liability question about Sole Proprietorships vs. LLCs for single employee businesses. As I under an LLC protects the assets of the owners of a business but would it provide any protection for the employees. And if it doesn't and the owner is the only employee does it really afford h...
by StarbuxInvestor
Wed Apr 16, 2014 8:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Legal Liability Question [Sole Proprietorships vs. LLCs]
Replies: 6
Views: 380

Re: Let's compare 2013 effective tax rates

sscritic wrote:
StarbuxInvestor wrote:Very confused how an effective rate could be higher than your bracket.

Self employment tax goes on your return. 25 + 13 = 38 (there are offsets).


Then why not throw in unearned income, property, state, city, sales too.
by StarbuxInvestor
Wed Apr 16, 2014 7:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Let's compare 2013 effective tax rates
Replies: 46
Views: 2151

Legal Liability Question [Sole Proprietorships vs. LLCs]

I have a legal liability question about Sole Proprietorships vs. LLCs for single employee businesses. As I under an LLC protects the assets of the owners of a business but would it provide any protection for the employees. And if it doesn't and the owner is the only employee does it really afford hi...
by StarbuxInvestor
Wed Apr 16, 2014 7:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Legal Liability Question [Sole Proprietorships vs. LLCs]
Replies: 6
Views: 380

Re: Let's compare 2013 effective tax rates

boglerocks wrote:I thought it would be interesting to compare 2013 effective tax rates along with federal tax brackets and any interesting tidbits. Here's mine:

30% effective rate
25% bracket
SEP deduction


Very confused how an effective rate could be higher than your bracket.
by StarbuxInvestor
Wed Apr 16, 2014 1:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Let's compare 2013 effective tax rates
Replies: 46
Views: 2151

Re: How much is rich?

I have to admit being fascinated by why this is such a difficult question for so many people to answer. I mean it just asks people in their own opinion to answer in simple numeric terms. Reasonably sure if I asked a similar question about AA or SWR people could answer numerically. I believe Ivygirl...
by StarbuxInvestor
Sun Apr 13, 2014 11:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much is rich?
Replies: 47
Views: 2466

Re: How much is rich?

I have to admit being fascinated by why this is such a difficult question for so many people to answer. I mean it just asks people in their own opinion to answer in simple numeric terms. Reasonably sure if I asked a similar question about AA or SWR people could answer numerically.
by StarbuxInvestor
Sun Apr 13, 2014 11:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much is rich?
Replies: 47
Views: 2466

Re: How much is rich?

Well this has become a total threadjack. I was speaking monetarily, not about what makes people feel that they have had a successful life. I am always interested on why this question is so hard to answer or why people try to avoid answering it. I think you totally miss the point. You cannot define ...
by StarbuxInvestor
Sun Apr 13, 2014 10:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much is rich?
Replies: 47
Views: 2466

Re: How much is rich?

Twelve million. After that, you have to skip thirteen million, because it brings bad luck. Victoria Ha ha ha! A joke that good demands the applause of laughter. :P Any fans of the novel Dracula here? Von Helsing has a speech about "King Laugh," who moves in and absolutely takes over, even...
by StarbuxInvestor
Sun Apr 13, 2014 10:48 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much is rich?
Replies: 47
Views: 2466

Re: How much is rich?

Well this has become a total threadjack. I was speaking monetarily, not about what makes people feel that they have had a successful life. I am always interested on why this question is so hard to answer or why people try to avoid answering it. I think you totally miss the point. You cannot define ...
by StarbuxInvestor
Sun Apr 13, 2014 10:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much is rich?
Replies: 47
Views: 2466

Re: How much is rich?

Well this has become a total threadjack. I was speaking monetarily, not about what makes people feel that they have had a successful life. I am always interested on why this question is so hard to answer or why people try to avoid answering it.
by StarbuxInvestor
Sun Apr 13, 2014 9:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much is rich?
Replies: 47
Views: 2466

Re: How much is rich?

Income wise to be in the top 1% this year was an AGI around $380,000. But there are 9.6 million households with net worths exceeding one million dollars in the U.S.
by StarbuxInvestor
Sun Apr 13, 2014 9:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much is rich?
Replies: 47
Views: 2466

Re: How much is rich?

This question has been debated many times. In my view, it's not an absolute number. You are rich when you know you have enough. No more. A friend and I were discussing this the other day. How much would someone need to have in stocks, bonds, CDs, and cash (basically excluding any residences) to be ...
by StarbuxInvestor
Sun Apr 13, 2014 8:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much is rich?
Replies: 47
Views: 2466

How much is rich?

A friend and I were discussing this the other day. How much would someone need to have in stocks, bonds, CDs, and cash (basically excluding any residences) to be rich? He said somewhere between 2 and 3 million, I said 5 million. What do you guys think?
by StarbuxInvestor
Sun Apr 13, 2014 8:18 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much is rich?
Replies: 47
Views: 2466

Re: How do you walk away from a good job?

I have decided to commit to another 11 months. Then take it in 3 month chunks from there.
by StarbuxInvestor
Sat Apr 12, 2014 9:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you walk away from a good job?
Replies: 29
Views: 3368

Re: Some websites are.......

Hello: Some websites are forecasting a stock market correction.........should I be concern (Marketwatch).Many thanks for your replies,parigi. :? They are correct a market correction is coming. Probably scarier a Bear market is coming. Also a Bull market is coming and a period of extreme volatility ...
by StarbuxInvestor
Fri Apr 11, 2014 10:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some websites are.......[predicting stock market correction]
Replies: 22
Views: 2428

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

TvilleBogle wrote:Call me crazy but I bought VINIX today.


Better than buying yesterday. Although that may not be the consensus view here.
by StarbuxInvestor
Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 12211

Re: What next after you have enough sort of.

I am much younger then the other folks commenting on this so take it with a grain of salt. I would accept that no plan you decide will work in a vacuum. No plan is perfect as no one knows what type of extreme events in the future will change your needs. I would guard against the worst which in inve...
by StarbuxInvestor
Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What next after you have enough sort of.
Replies: 31
Views: 3386

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

I think if I was further from retirement and earlier in the accumulation phase I will feel differently than I do a couple years from calling it a day. That's certainly possible so if I were to get a 500k windfall that would essentially shoot past my "number" and would probably call for a ...
by StarbuxInvestor
Thu Apr 10, 2014 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 12211

Re: What next after you have enough sort of.

as IlliniDave said "auditioning" my early retirement lifestyle as best I can. We were so focused on the size of the income number that only later did we realize that we had been practicing our retirement spending. That does smooth the transition, knowing that your spending budget is the s...
by StarbuxInvestor
Thu Apr 10, 2014 1:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What next after you have enough sort of.
Replies: 31
Views: 3386

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

I think if I was further from retirement and earlier in the accumulation phase I will feel differently than I do a couple years from calling it a day.
by StarbuxInvestor
Thu Apr 10, 2014 9:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 12211

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

Is there a difference between investing a small amount every month and going all in today with a large amount?How many would be a little more reluctant to invest 500k today at these valuations if that was all you had for your stock allocation? What is the difference between investing 500k and keepi...
by StarbuxInvestor
Tue Apr 08, 2014 3:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 12211

Re: How do you walk away from a good job?

Possibly. 3 days a week would be ideal, even 4 would allow me a great flexibility to do some of the things I want. If you are truly a contractor, you choose when and how often you work. Just start working four day weeks. I guess that is true if I want to pursue another contract position with differ...
by StarbuxInvestor
Tue Apr 08, 2014 3:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you walk away from a good job?
Replies: 29
Views: 3368
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