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Re: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?

So what I hear Larry saying is, "Yes, stocks have intrinsic fundamental value, but you can't know what it is." While valuation estimates are just that: estimates, Buffet seems to think that under certain circumstances some valuation estimates are more reliable than others. If there's too ...
by SpaceCommander
Sun Oct 26, 2014 8:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1952

Re: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?

So what I hear Larry saying is, "Yes, stocks have intrinsic fundamental value, but you can't know what it is." While valuation estimates are just that: estimates, Buffet seems to think that under certain circumstances some valuation estimates are more reliable than others. If there's too m...
by SpaceCommander
Sun Oct 26, 2014 6:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks have an intrinsic fundamental value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1952

Re: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?

Since we've been talking Buffet: here's how he would assess the propriety of stock buybacks. "We test the wisdom of retaining earnings by assessing whether retention, over time, delivers shareholders at least $1 of market value for each $1 retained... The five year test should be: (1) during th...
by SpaceCommander
Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IBM: Stock Buybacks Gone Wrong?
Replies: 65
Views: 4060

Re: Risk in a high dividend stock portfolio

FWIW, I think that this approach is way too risky. Investing in a company (or 50 companies) just because they have high dividends is a recipe for regret. If you're going to buy a "dividend stock", it's usually a much better bet to purchase a blue chip with solid fundamentals. And diversify...
by SpaceCommander
Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk in a high dividend stock portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 2189

Re: GT Advanced Technology Files for Chapter 11

Anyone who was closely following the company would have noticed that insiders had been dumping the stock hand over fist since July. It's usually not a good sign when top executives and directors are exercising their options and immediately liquidating 100%. A look at insider selling is breathtaking...
by SpaceCommander
Thu Oct 23, 2014 4:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GT Advanced Technology Files for Chapter 11
Replies: 9
Views: 1478

Re: Is investing in real estate worth it?

But, real estate does add an entirely different type of asset and income stream to the mix. That's one of the main reasons I like it, I consider it a form of meta-diversification. Oh and real estate is fantastic at throwing off reliable cash flows, much better than a financial portfolio in that res...
by SpaceCommander
Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is investing in real estate worth it?
Replies: 28
Views: 2498

Re: Is investing in real estate worth it?

But, real estate does add an entirely different type of asset and income stream to the mix. That's one of the main reasons I like it, I consider it a form of meta-diversification. Oh and real estate is fantastic at throwing off reliable cash flows, much better than a financial portfolio in that res...
by SpaceCommander
Wed Oct 22, 2014 8:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is investing in real estate worth it?
Replies: 28
Views: 2498

Re: Is investing in real estate worth it?

I've invested in real estate and made a lot of money. A couple observations: 1. It's really is a business and needs to be treated as such. Are you ready for a sideline business? 2. It can be a huge hassle and major time suck in many ways depending on the kind of real estate invested in. Are you up f...
by SpaceCommander
Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is investing in real estate worth it?
Replies: 28
Views: 2498

Re: GT Advanced Technology Files for Chapter 11

Anyone who was closely following the company would have noticed that insiders had been dumping the stock hand over fist since July. It's usually not a good sign when top executives and directors are exercising their options and immediately liquidating 100%. A look at insider selling is breathtaking....
by SpaceCommander
Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GT Advanced Technology Files for Chapter 11
Replies: 9
Views: 1478

Re: Are Windows Phones easy to use?

Yes. Windows phones are easy to use. My wife is a techno-phobe, and she loves her Windows phone. She uses it for the same thing. The only downside IMO, is that it doesn't have as many apps as IOS or Android, but if you're not into all the bells and whistles, it's got all the mainstream stuff that pe...
by SpaceCommander
Sun Oct 12, 2014 5:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are Windows Phones easy to use?
Replies: 8
Views: 764

Re: Buying a bounce house for personal use?

When my kids were small, I bought a brand new unit. I didn't get the cheap, non-commercial one. I bought a gigantic behemoth circus sized one that took 2 grown men and a truck to haul around and setup. It cost me somewhere around $5K. I ended up renting it out myself to others and recouped a chunk o...
by SpaceCommander
Wed Sep 17, 2014 12:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a bounce house for personal use?
Replies: 25
Views: 1797

Re: What are you up YTD?

I honestly have no idea, and frankly, I doubt that it matters in the least. I suppose I could find out if I bothered to check all my statements as of 31 Dec, and compare to now, adjusting for additions/withdrawals. But what's the point? The only thing worth measuring, in my opinion, is my asset allo...
by SpaceCommander
Sat Sep 13, 2014 6:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are you up YTD?
Replies: 141
Views: 11825

Re: ETF Proliferation leads to market inefficiencies?

So, it's not a matter of "if" but, "when" passive investing triumphs in the marketplace of ideas, it won't disrupt the markets because... ...because it takes a very small number of active investors to quickly arbitrage away any inefficiencies in the market. Alright. I can buy tha...
by SpaceCommander
Tue Sep 09, 2014 11:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF Proliferation leads to market inefficiencies?
Replies: 22
Views: 1302

Re: ETF Proliferation leads to market inefficiencies?

Agreed. The data in the article is sorely lacking. I commented merely because he throws out an idea that made me revisit some of my assumptions. So I take it that the consensus here is the idea has no merit because: 1. The writer is not credible as an active manager. 2. He doesn't prove his point. H...
by SpaceCommander
Tue Sep 09, 2014 9:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF Proliferation leads to market inefficiencies?
Replies: 22
Views: 1302

Re: ETF Proliferation leads to market inefficiencies?

Nisi, Point well noted. However, we're taking shots at the writer instead of actually addressing his argument. Could it be that when ETF capitalizations were minuscule, the ramifications were negligible? However, now that ETF's have exploded in popularity, there are indeed market impacts that will e...
by SpaceCommander
Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF Proliferation leads to market inefficiencies?
Replies: 22
Views: 1302

Re: ETF Proliferation leads to market inefficiencies?

I see this as a much greater issue in the small cap realm with their smaller trading volumes. It's unlikely ETF inflows will affect AAPL or XOM, but a smallcap with 50K average volume would be much more vulnerable, right? The whole point of ETF's is to track the performance of a basket of stocks. If...
by SpaceCommander
Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF Proliferation leads to market inefficiencies?
Replies: 22
Views: 1302

ETF Proliferation leads to market inefficiencies?

An active trader comments on opportunity in small caps where ETF proliferation results in mispricing. Any merit to this thesis? Another disruptive factor to price discovery has been the proliferation of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Accounting for more than 30 percent of trading volume in the market...
by SpaceCommander
Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF Proliferation leads to market inefficiencies?
Replies: 22
Views: 1302

Re: Role of Non-Vanguard Index funds in your portfolio

I use RPV for it's large cap value weighting. PRFZ follows a "fundamental" index and I'm pleased with its performance. DGS gets me a small cap tilt to my emerging markets allocation. All funds with no Vanguard equivalent. The Vanguard assets I have tend to be Admiral shares instead of ETF'...
by SpaceCommander
Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Role of Non-Vanguard Index funds in your portfolio
Replies: 15
Views: 1028

Re: Own individual stocks? Advisor recommends 20% in blue ch

An advisor can add value beyond merely helping you determine an asset allocation. However, 1% is a steep price to pay for that service. I'd look for a less expensive option. Isn't Rick Ferri's shop at Portfolio Solutions just a fraction of that? How much personal assistance do you really need?
by SpaceCommander
Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Own individual stocks? Advisor recommends 20% in blue chips?
Replies: 38
Views: 2769

Re: Peter Lynch was wrong

...Peter Lynch was not lucky. Agreed. When you drink deeply from the well of EMH, EVERYONE who outperforms is merely lucky... Buffett, Lynch, Templeton, et.al. all blinded by their success into thinking their random outperformance is due to skill. Those who outperform just got lucky (or took more r...
by SpaceCommander
Sat Sep 06, 2014 10:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter Lynch was wrong
Replies: 64
Views: 6213

Re: Holding Cash because Tried to time Market

So what have we learned about prognostication here? You would do well to determine an appropriate allocation (the wiki can help), set it, and then let it do it's thing. Worrying about the short-term is unproductive. If these funds are not needed for 10-20 years, then why worry about a possible negat...
by SpaceCommander
Thu Sep 04, 2014 1:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Holding Cash because Tried to time Market
Replies: 78
Views: 6596

Re: Why is REIT only sector fund recommended in slice & dice

To piggyback on VT above: REITs aren't the only entities that have a peculiar structure and tax treatment. If you want to slice/dice with a tilt to REITs, then to be consistent, why not MLPs? In fact, to get a piece of the private equity market, why not Business Development Corporations? BDC's also ...
by SpaceCommander
Wed Sep 03, 2014 5:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is REIT only sector fund recommended in slice & dice?
Replies: 113
Views: 8066

Re: Taxable account as emergency fund?

I don't see any reason why you can't take a small chunk of your taxable account and invest it in something fairly conservative and call that portion your "emergency fund". Sounds like you're in great shape, however you don't mention the security of your job. That job security (or lack ther...
by SpaceCommander
Wed Sep 03, 2014 4:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable account as emergency fund?
Replies: 9
Views: 816

Re: Should I ? TSP => Fidelity PAS

You should probably stop trading your TSP account. Determine an appropriate allocation, set it, and leave it alone. The TSP has all the funds you need for a successful portfolio. If you must, you can roll it over to an IRA with Vanguard and invest in other asset classes (like REITs, etc), but I don'...
by SpaceCommander
Wed Sep 03, 2014 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I ? TSP => Fidelity PAS
Replies: 11
Views: 558

Re: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?

IMHO, Gross will outperform the Total Bond index because he will take higher risk than that index. Also, Pimco is more than Bill Gross. No doubt, he's their star manager, but Pimco is a world class bond shop. If I were to have an active bond fund, I wouldn't want anyone other than Pimco at the helm....
by SpaceCommander
Tue Sep 02, 2014 5:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will Bill Gross beat the Total Bond Market Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 5947

Re: 100% Stock Thread Collection

My humble contribution from Jan 2008:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=11735
by SpaceCommander
Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Thread Collection
Replies: 93
Views: 5630

Re: S&P 500 Equal Weight Index

Joel Greenblatt is a fan of the equal weight approach and estimates it will net +2% per year to total returns over the long haul over the S&P500. He explains his reasoning in his latest book, "The Big Secret for the Small Investor". FYI.
by SpaceCommander
Mon Aug 25, 2014 8:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Equal Weight Index
Replies: 10
Views: 952

Re: Beat The Street's Permanent Portfolio

Fun with data mining and backtesting! Love it!
by SpaceCommander
Fri Aug 15, 2014 8:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beat The Street's Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 36
Views: 3287

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

Image

This is what crosses my mind when I think of the Boglehead vs. Income stock approaches
by SpaceCommander
Sun Aug 03, 2014 2:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11558

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

Someone said, "Dividends might not be reliable in the future." I might add: capital appreciation might not be reliable in the future. If anything, the dividends from solid blue chips are far more reliable than expected capital appreciation. Please don't think Japan can't happen here. Indee...
by SpaceCommander
Sun Aug 03, 2014 9:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11558

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

As noted many times before, this forum is hardly the place for a rational discussion of income stock investing. It quickly degenerates into name calling and put downs; frankly, it's tiresome. To proudly assert that income stock investors are irrational, illogical, ignorant, with "blinders on&qu...
by SpaceCommander
Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11558

Re: I have access to a military TSP...worth it?

During my first year on active duty as a freshly minted officer, I was introduced to the TSP. I took a passing look at it and saw pitiful few fund options, and quickly dismissed it. After about a year, I revisited the TSP and this time looked at it more carefully. Sure, the investment options were f...
by SpaceCommander
Sun Jul 27, 2014 7:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I have access to a military TSP...worth it?
Replies: 13
Views: 1130

Re: Dividend Growth Investing vs Index Funds

Two lumberjacks arguing about the best way to chop down a tree. "A sharp axe is the way to go." Says the first. The other disagrees, "You can't go wrong with a good saw." The axe club ridicules the saw group; whereas the saw crowd thinks the axe guys are backwards. At the end of ...
by SpaceCommander
Thu Jul 24, 2014 6:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Growth Investing vs Index Funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1340

Re: Opinions - What to do with $50k for 12mos

If you need the money in merely 12 months, it belongs in a cash investment. Tbills, Money Market, CD, savings account, etc. Anything else is speculation.
by SpaceCommander
Tue Jul 22, 2014 9:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions - What to do with $50k for 12mos
Replies: 10
Views: 1278

Re: Joel Greenblatt's "magic formula"

Just a couple observations: the OP identifies himself as a "novice investor" then he sneers at a professional investor and academic the likes of Joel Greenblatt. The hubris is amazing around here. FYI, Greenblatt's investing record is public, long term, and impressive. He's trained at Whar...
by SpaceCommander
Mon Jul 21, 2014 9:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Joel Greenblatt's "magic formula"
Replies: 22
Views: 5453

Re: Bet it ALL on Small Cap Value when you're young

To the OP: if we were real Bogleheads (as in actually following Jack's advice), we'd simply put all our equity money in a total stock market index fund and hold it forever. But then again, if we did that, there wouldn't be much to talk about on this board.
by SpaceCommander
Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bet it ALL on Small Cap Value when you're young
Replies: 64
Views: 6660

Re: POLL: Walmart vs Amazon

Walmart? Really? Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded.
by SpaceCommander
Mon Jul 14, 2014 5:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: POLL: Walmart vs Amazon
Replies: 137
Views: 8789

Re: IPS Review/Thoughts?

I'm in a similar situation and chose to consider the pension the "safe" part of my allocation and dial up the risk of the remaining portfolio. True, I may not need the additional risk and potential reward to take care of myself in retirement, but I figured the objective of the portfolio al...
by SpaceCommander
Mon Jul 14, 2014 5:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IPS Review/Thoughts?
Replies: 4
Views: 376

Re: Vanguards Devil's Advocate

Someone above made a comment comparing this to a religion. I think that's spot on: if all you read are Catholic books, then it's not surprising that you're persuaded by that flavor of religion. Likewise, if all you read is Bogle, Swedroe, Ferri, Bernstein, etc, then it may appear that you're well re...
by SpaceCommander
Mon Jul 07, 2014 5:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguards Devil's Advocate
Replies: 55
Views: 7709

Re: Vanguards Devil's Advocate

You might consider "Dividend Growth" investment approaches. Check out anything written by Chuck Carnevale and the F.A.S.TGraphs group over on Seeking Alpha. A very different approach; but one that is reasonable under certain circumstances, IMHO. Also, I think Jeremy Siegel has some worthwh...
by SpaceCommander
Sun Jul 06, 2014 7:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguards Devil's Advocate
Replies: 55
Views: 7709

Re: Is deferring 75% of your paycheck Roth 401(k) even doabl

My wife is a medical professional. Since we don't need the income, she works around 10 hours a week just to keep her certifications current. We tried to go 100% into her Roth 401k, but her employer maxes it at 90% after deductions just to keep a small buffer there. Every two weeks she gets a $50.00 ...
by SpaceCommander
Sat Jul 05, 2014 11:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is deferring 75% of your paycheck Roth 401(k) even doable?
Replies: 14
Views: 2037

Re: I'm worthless [Net worth is zero]

Sounds like you're on your way. I recall making a similar calculation around 15 yrs ago. Now it's 7 figures. Regardless of the specific numbers, the formula is always the same: live below your means, save & invest for the long term in a low cost, diversified portfolio. I recall getting excited a...
by SpaceCommander
Thu Jul 03, 2014 10:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm worthless [Net worth is zero]
Replies: 33
Views: 5172

Re: It’s Twilight for Managed Mutual Funds

I do believe actively managed funds will always be with us--it seems like someone always has another big idea that becomes the flavor of the month until it's not. But, it is frustrating that folks are funneled into choices with the 401k that is offered at work. I agree. I think actively managed fun...
by SpaceCommander
Wed May 21, 2014 12:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It’s Twilight for Managed Mutual Funds
Replies: 23
Views: 2545

Re: what had biggest impact on your financial success?

I was looking for the "Delayed gratification / Lived below your means" option...
by SpaceCommander
Wed May 14, 2014 3:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what had biggest impact on your financial success?
Replies: 57
Views: 4276

Re: Did (will) you pay off your mortgage by retirement?

Paid off well before retirement. Then sold after a few years and went back to renting. Maybe I'll pay cash for a house once I settle down and retire.
by SpaceCommander
Wed Apr 30, 2014 2:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did (will) you pay off your mortgage by retirement?
Replies: 68
Views: 3483

Re: $300k vs $600k home

First thing that came to my mind was $300K of opportunity cost. How much is that worth over the next 20 years?
by SpaceCommander
Wed Apr 30, 2014 2:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $300k vs $600k home
Replies: 37
Views: 4838

Re: Seattle and Portland, OR restaurant recommendations

The Pink Door by Pike's Place Market in Seattle. Recommended.
by SpaceCommander
Tue Apr 29, 2014 5:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seattle and Portland, OR restaurant recommendations
Replies: 31
Views: 1381

Re: Bogle Baptism

While my previous note on this thread was clearly tongue-in-cheek, I am not the first to note the religious overtones of devotion on this board to the teachings of our venerated "Saint Jack". From Forbes, he (Bogle) clearly still relishes the role he carved out for himself six decades ago,...
by SpaceCommander
Sat Apr 26, 2014 6:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bogle Baptism
Replies: 32
Views: 3439

Re: Bogle Baptism

I would quote golfer Lee Trevino... One day in 1984 my wife, Claudia, told me, 'The government gets a third and we can spend a third, but we need to save a third'. That's the smartest advice anyone ever gave me. We're rich now. Concentrate on personal savings rate instead of worrying about the perf...
by SpaceCommander
Sat Apr 26, 2014 11:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bogle Baptism
Replies: 32
Views: 3439
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