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Re: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren

Vanguard has vested interest in not telling the public what asset class to avoid and which to buy to any extent beyond the generally accepted academic literature. As long as they don't make a prediction, they can never be wrong. Their goal is to gather as many assets as possible. I have been wrong o...
by Snowjob
Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren
Replies: 47
Views: 3147

Re: Advice needed for next 10 years: Save, spend borrow?

Spend the same, save less and worry less. Kids going to school is a big bump in expenditures, but that will end as will the mortgage. Given your current retirement savings, the eventual swing in cash flow down the road and your estimated inheritance the rational move is likely to save less for retir...
by Snowjob
Mon Oct 20, 2014 2:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice needed for next 10 years: Save, spend borrow?
Replies: 18
Views: 2436

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Volatility = Opportunity.

I'm all for a little opportunity, we'll see where this goes.
by Snowjob
Thu Oct 09, 2014 6:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 430
Views: 28368

Re: Stock Dividend Yields & Share Buybacks — A Surprise

Shareholder yield is certainly not a new concept, I've been acutely focused on this over the past 5 years and it has been great.
by Snowjob
Wed Oct 01, 2014 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Dividend Yields & Share Buybacks — A Surprise
Replies: 70
Views: 4353

Re: Future equities 2% real rhetoric is hogwash

I'm projecting a real return for the next 20 years of the following: - US Stocks 2-3% driven mostly by yield & buyback with no growth - US Bonds 0% All back of the envelope. Assumptions include - Lower bound interest rates killing bonds - No large change in multiples (to end date dependent so I'...
by Snowjob
Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future equities 2% real rhetoric is hogwash
Replies: 45
Views: 3809

Re: milestones, skepticism, wealth creation. A thought

Saw the other thread and most folks seemed to be around 55%-65%. Ran my own for another test point. I'm coming up with: 144% Nominal 130% Real The skew is due to my age (lower 30's), no kids, and better returns (leverage). I expect returns to be more in line with the group going forward and cost of ...
by Snowjob
Mon Sep 29, 2014 2:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: milestones, skepticism, wealth creation. A thought
Replies: 16
Views: 2181

Re: How I beat Indexing... in 1 hour

I love taking positions on individual stocks, and I applaud you actually posting your trades here. I never do myself... I think deep down inside I don't want the pseudo-public humiliation if I'm "wrong" :oops: In all seriousness, you said buy Baba at 90. Can you layout your case as to why ...
by Snowjob
Mon Sep 29, 2014 1:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I beat Indexing... in 1 hour
Replies: 71
Views: 11838

Re: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom

I have been a frequent proponent of responsible leverage and have been open about my use of it on these boards since the summer of 2008. It sucks on the way down, its great on the way up. Always nice to do this when asset prices are cheaper, I typically don't extend much these days. While I would li...
by Snowjob
Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom
Replies: 46
Views: 1554

Re: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?

Of course you can sell individual bonds. You are not forced to hold them to maturity. What are you trying to say with "You don't get the capital appreciation"? You do. The treasury market is extremely liquid. The hassle amounts to a few mouse clicks every year or so. There are no commissi...
by Snowjob
Thu Sep 18, 2014 7:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?
Replies: 38
Views: 3223

Recommendation for a 2 man tent

I've never purchased one before, usually just used the ones from the boy scout troop growing up. The family had a 4 man for ages but its beyond repair and extremely bulky and heavy. I'm looking for a two man tent, 3 season should be fine. I don't do a lot of aggressive trail hiking so I'm not concer...
by Snowjob
Wed Aug 06, 2014 3:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommendation for a 2 man tent
Replies: 23
Views: 1228

Re: Bonds beat stocks over the last 15 years

Yes, for me, one of the big puzzles in investing is just how to approach the "long term" data. All of the impressive numbers involve an implicit assumption that a) the long-term future WILL resemble the long-term past, and that b) you, the individual investor hoping to tip your odds a bit...
by Snowjob
Fri Jul 25, 2014 5:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds beat stocks over the last 15 years
Replies: 93
Views: 8370

Re: Conservative Assumptions For Retirement Calculators

I use a 2% real return over the long haul and a flat 1 a month for social security as a potential bonus down the road.
by Snowjob
Thu Jul 24, 2014 3:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Conservative Assumptions For Retirement Calculators
Replies: 14
Views: 1750

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

Yes, I agree with the rationale of Mortgage Your Retirement. In fact, I think OP's method of leveraging into a balanced fund makes more sense than a leveraged bet on equities, due to capturing the benefits of the term premium (positive expected return, negatively correlated with equities). Implemen...
by Snowjob
Mon Jul 21, 2014 6:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 370
Views: 31964

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

Yes, I agree with the rationale of Mortgage Your Retirement. In fact, I think OP's method of leveraging into a balanced fund makes more sense than a leveraged bet on equities, due to capturing the benefits of the term premium (positive expected return, negatively correlated with equities). Implemen...
by Snowjob
Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 370
Views: 31964

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

1) Sure, I agree that margin rates are adjustable. Aren't there adjustable rate mortgages also? People seem fairly comfortable using those. Though, I agree that equity in a house is likely to vary less than that of a balanced fund. That is probably why mortgages often start at 4:1 leverage. I'll go...
by Snowjob
Thu Jul 17, 2014 7:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 370
Views: 31964

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

Questions: 1) How is this different from using a home mortgage and contributing to a 401k? 2) If someone believes in staying the course with their AA, does anything change when using leverage? For example, does an 80/20 non-leveraged AA turn into 60/40 when leveraged 2x? 3) What stays the same? TLH...
by Snowjob
Wed Jul 16, 2014 2:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 370
Views: 31964

Re: P2P Lending

Did prosper.com right at the peak around 2007. I think I funded about 7 or 8 hundred dollars in loans and had a fairly high default rate in the end. I think a lot of this had to do with the cycle in the economy more than anything else. (I have no way of proving this of course). You will never make m...
by Snowjob
Tue Jul 01, 2014 1:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: P2P Lending
Replies: 12
Views: 1047

Re: First Post - Early Retirement Planning

Thanks for the update on what the balance of your wages are being used for! I think given that piece of the puzzle the framework changes a bit. I see you more aiming for "financial independence" rather than early retirement, and that I think is a wonderful goal. That flexibility is pricele...
by Snowjob
Mon Jun 23, 2014 8:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First Post - Early Retirement Planning
Replies: 4
Views: 1174

Re: First Post - Early Retirement Planning

I think it would be helpful if you gave us a breakdown of your expenses / savings and let us know where the$ are going -- 28% tax bracket would put you at least 85k per year I think. Total contributions to investments being about 16k per year. That leaves almost 60k for taxes and spending. What type...
by Snowjob
Mon Jun 23, 2014 12:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First Post - Early Retirement Planning
Replies: 4
Views: 1174

Re: First Post - Early Retirement Planning

I think you are being to aggressive with your assumptions. The portfolio is a little small and I think you would be wiser to work longer and save more. Not the advice you want to hear but its good advice. I should have taken it myself a few years ago when I was really geared up for a potential exit....
by Snowjob
Mon Jun 23, 2014 5:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First Post - Early Retirement Planning
Replies: 4
Views: 1174

Re: Dividend growth question

There is a way out of this conundrum, which is to say that the companies paying dividends are self-selecting, i.e. they tend to be those without good internal reinvestment opportunities. I can sort of accept this to some degree... I agree, I think there is probably some self selection when it comes...
by Snowjob
Sun Jun 15, 2014 11:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend growth question
Replies: 29
Views: 2249

Re: The Death of Savings Bonds

3.5% nominal (if you lock it for 20 years) looks rough. I hope it doesn't turn out to be a good investment or we may be in some pain in the years a head. If I had no alternative I'd do 2% CD's and hope for a shift in rates and/or a crash. something that would allow me to extend on the risk curve
by Snowjob
Sun Jun 15, 2014 11:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Death of Savings Bonds
Replies: 33
Views: 3561

Re: The Death of Savings Bonds

Clearly a sizeable number, but I voted for all. I wonder if there were no limit to how many I-bonds / EE-bonds you could buy if that would make them less attractive to people and reduce the purchase even more. We are loath to miss an opportunity to "miss" a Roth or 401k contribution becaus...
by Snowjob
Sun Jun 15, 2014 10:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Death of Savings Bonds
Replies: 33
Views: 3561

Re: Dividend growth question

It's easy to imagine only the scenarios in which returning cash was an advantage. But consider these balancing aspects: dividends reinvested / buybacks (difference is indeed irrelevant here) at very high prices and on the way down; Huh? I never said returning cash is always good. I specifically cal...
by Snowjob
Sun Jun 15, 2014 10:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend growth question
Replies: 29
Views: 2249

Re: Dividend growth question

I stand by my prior assertion, that on the margins, the dividend in the downturn is actually a net positive if reinvested . Even with the 15% drag its probably on balance better then having it retained and though in a tax advantaged account its a clear win. The simple fact is that by and large corp...
by Snowjob
Sun Jun 15, 2014 7:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend growth question
Replies: 29
Views: 2249

Re: LMP -> In Between Years.

then scratch everything I said in my response. work longer, save more, reduce expectations and possibly step out on a limb and take more risk.

Problem is you don't make squat with tips these days.
by Snowjob
Sun Jun 15, 2014 11:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Liability Matching Portfolio] LMP -> In Between Years.
Replies: 18
Views: 1030

Re: LMP -> In Between Years.

Assuming the math on the ss payout is correct and doesn't change much (I think after certain amount of dollars contributed the payout increase relative to those dollars is TINY) So he still needs to generate the remaining 21k per year. I think he could probably squeeze out that buying an SPIA with l...
by Snowjob
Sun Jun 15, 2014 11:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Liability Matching Portfolio] LMP -> In Between Years.
Replies: 18
Views: 1030

Re: Brett Arends's "Perfect Portfolio" Comments?

Basically what Rick said above. Perfect as far as returns go, will depend on the time series you look at. So unless you are actively managing your exposure to different sectors (individual stocks, the possibilities are to many to even have this discussion) you will never have the perfect portfolio a...
by Snowjob
Sun Jun 15, 2014 8:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brett Arends's "Perfect Portfolio" Comments?
Replies: 24
Views: 1895

Re: Dividend growth question

You're partially right. They MIGHT expect better returns longer term, but only because they are 100% equity. And yes, they MIGHT have a constant cash flow, even in down markets. But that comes from the fact they are essentially "selling low". Or more accurately, the companies are "se...
by Snowjob
Sat Jun 14, 2014 8:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend growth question
Replies: 29
Views: 2249

Re: Dividend growth question

You're partially right. They MIGHT expect better returns longer term, but only because they are 100% equity. And yes, they MIGHT have a constant cash flow, even in down markets. But that comes from the fact they are essentially "selling low". Or more accurately, the companies are "se...
by Snowjob
Fri Jun 13, 2014 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend growth question
Replies: 29
Views: 2249

Re: To own at least 1 share of every company in SP500

In theory would you then end up with fractional shares of some companies if you were trying to mimic the S&P?

Interesting concept, before the days of the index fund this might have been a savvy way to pull it off.
by Snowjob
Mon Jun 09, 2014 9:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To own at least 1 share of every company in SP500
Replies: 27
Views: 2266

Re: Why Are Insurance Stocks So Cheap?

Been a huge fan of Travelers for several years now. Great underwriting, low risk in the investment portfolio (save interest rate risk), returns about 100% of cash every year to buy backs and dividends. Finally getting priced up to where it should be. That said we've had several non-event catastrophe...
by Snowjob
Mon Jun 09, 2014 5:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are Insurance Stocks So Cheap?
Replies: 18
Views: 1829

Re: 100 year portfolio

Way to many variables, to think about when looking at life -- children , divorces etc etc. But if it was up to me given today's environment, 55% Tax-Managed Large Cap 15% Tax-Managed Small Cap 15% All world-Ex US 15% Fixed Income (pooled I-Bonds / EE Bonds / CDs for current needs) have all of the &q...
by Snowjob
Mon Jun 09, 2014 12:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100 year portfolio
Replies: 10
Views: 923

Re: Excessive margin debt

It looks like excessive margin debt is back. Should we be worried? http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/markets/nyse-margin-debt.html?NYSE-margin-debt-SPX-since-1995.gif Maybe, maybe not. https://philosophicaleconomics.wordpress.com/2013/10/25/margin-debt/ That's a fantastic blog, if anyone...
by Snowjob
Thu May 01, 2014 2:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excessive margin debt
Replies: 5
Views: 947

Re: retired at 37?

If they both are boglehead lawyers absolutely. If the spouse is on the same page and saving the same amount from the same time there is no reason they cant retire. The key being that both people in the relationship are into this. if its only one, good luck lol
by Snowjob
Sun Mar 30, 2014 9:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: retired at 37?
Replies: 52
Views: 5540

Re: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep pla

because there is no re-balancing from the liability match to the risk side. the purpose of the liability match portfolio is just that -- to match your liabilities so you dont ever need to think about them.
by Snowjob
Fri Mar 28, 2014 7:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep playing
Replies: 264
Views: 33947

Re: Dividend strategy popularity sowing seeds of disappointm

If simply buying the stock with the lowest P/E ratio was the key to riches on Wall Street, I would have been sitting on the beaches in Hawaii a long time ago. Ironically if you did weight by PE's or almost any other measure (good or bad surprisingly) and diversified across the market you have beate...
by Snowjob
Sat Feb 22, 2014 8:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend strategy popularity sowing seeds of disappointment
Replies: 10
Views: 1599

Re: Art Cashin

OP - While I do not believe in Technical Analysis as something I should base my investments on, there are many folks to who do. I believe that for smaller moves +/- 5-8% technicals can play a factor if only because there are enough people out there using them that they can have an effect on the mark...
by Snowjob
Sat Feb 22, 2014 8:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Art Cashin
Replies: 28
Views: 1655

Re: Dividend strategy popularity sowing seeds of disappointm

The problem you are having with the article is that comparing a value fund to a dividend fund will never be apples to apples. I sympathize with Larry though. If we reduce this to absurdity and half of the market participants went to a dividend growth strategy, those companies would be bid to such ex...
by Snowjob
Fri Feb 21, 2014 9:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend strategy popularity sowing seeds of disappointment
Replies: 10
Views: 1599

Re: Why I'm A passive investor

The winning at the game of life section to me is actually the reason I will be pushing to a more and more passive strategy as I age. I've been guilty of this at various points.
by Snowjob
Tue Feb 11, 2014 5:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why I'm A passive investor
Replies: 16
Views: 2196

Re: RAFI Fundamental Indexes(FI) vs. Russell FIs

have not had a chance to review this but i was interested in the Russel re balancing scheme and as it didn't appear that any consensus was reached in this thread I figured I'd share the link I stumbled upon. http://www.russell.com/indexes/documents/research/fundamental-index-innovative-rebalancing-p...
by Snowjob
Fri Dec 06, 2013 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI Fundamental Indexes(FI) vs. Russell FIs
Replies: 41
Views: 2928

best way to store your gold & silver

I know most people don't have any in their portfolios -- I don't either. But for those that do, what is the best way to store the physical commodity? If someone wanted to hold a bunch of 1 ounce coins, do you just throw them in a box? do they come sealed in a plastic casing like a commemorative coin...
by Snowjob
Sun Oct 13, 2013 5:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: best way to store your gold & silver
Replies: 23
Views: 1844

Re: What age did you start investing and where are you now?

2004 started investing in a Roth
2005 graduated with a BS and got a white collar job
2008 started moving aggressively via leverage in the summer of 08 before the big crash (ouch???)
2009 survived and have been riding the wave back up
2013 total portfolio at about 10x my gross salary.

Age early 30s.
by Snowjob
Sun Sep 29, 2013 8:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What age did you start investing and where are you now?
Replies: 42
Views: 4885

Re: Any US-Only/Mostly-US Stock Holders Getting Nervous?

I significantly deleveraged about a week ago from positions that were overwhelmingly US equity.

I'm still heavily tilted to US equity vs fixed income, but after 4 booming years and current valuations I had to take some off the table. So nervous of losing what I've made I guess.
by Snowjob
Wed Aug 07, 2013 12:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any US-Only/Mostly-US Stock Holders Getting Nervous?
Replies: 114
Views: 11419

Re: My Early Retirement Thoughts and Calculations

Do the following.

1.) Work 3-5 more years: This will increase your savings and cut down on your requirements at the same time.
2.) Find a part time fun job during retirement: Brings in some extra income here or there, no strings attached, keeps you active also!
by Snowjob
Wed Jul 31, 2013 3:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My Early Retirement Thoughts and Calculations
Replies: 43
Views: 8670

Re: Building Credit -- Keep the loan?

The balance is small and the interest rate low in absolute terms.

I would keep the loan, pay it off as scheduled and use the money to bolster the emergency fund or add to tax advantaged investment accounts -- liquidity at your age should be the first concern.
by Snowjob
Wed Jul 31, 2013 1:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Building Credit -- Keep the loan?
Replies: 17
Views: 1169

Re: View investments accounts as whole or separately?

I am guilty of mental accounting even though theory would state its silly to do so. However, if you do want to do mental accounting you need to make sure the accounts are actually designed to behave differently. I don't see the allocation percentages laid out in your post but all three accounts seem...
by Snowjob
Sun Jul 21, 2013 1:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: View investments accounts as whole or separately?
Replies: 14
Views: 718

Re: Can I retire?

Yes you can retire. 2M in index funds, the dividend on that will cover your 80k per year w/o even touching the 500k in your tax advanged accouts or your home (as a source of funds if needed) that's a huge margin of safety. In addition if things went really wrong you could always get a job or cut bac...
by Snowjob
Sun May 12, 2013 9:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I retire?
Replies: 78
Views: 7881

Re: Using Ayres/Nalebuff leveraged strategy (Lifecycle Inv.)

2 points Point 1: My experience with interactive brokers margin calls were I got an email 10 min before the end of the trading day saying I was in violation of my margin requirements and needed to raise cash. I didn't realize the email came in and they sold down a position for me to get my account i...
by Snowjob
Fri May 10, 2013 8:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using Ayres/Nalebuff leveraged strategy (Lifecycle Inv.)
Replies: 32
Views: 3402

Re: 2 K-1s in an IRA ; both together are > $1000 limit, etc

Watch out, some of the recapture can come back as these as well from my understanding. its just not worth hold them in the IRA plain and simple
by Snowjob
Tue Apr 30, 2013 1:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2 K-1s in an IRA ; both together are > $1000 limit, etc
Replies: 12
Views: 973
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