Search found 1024 matches

by Snowjob
Tue Jul 28, 2015 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bit of gold?
Replies: 45
Views: 2467

Re: A bit of gold?

I'm conflicted on gold, I like that it behaves differently than traditional asset classes, but I hate that there is no cash flow. I expect it to retain some value over time -- central banks still own it and as long as there is institutional (ie very important institutional) support for holding the a...
by Snowjob
Thu Jul 16, 2015 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1721

Re: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund

I had an interesting experience with a family member who has a lot of reservations about giving up control of their assets, needs a fairly high equity allocation, and had displayed horrible investor behavior over time (chasing returns, yield, market timing you name it). Oh and of course they don't r...
by Snowjob
Thu Jul 16, 2015 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: CNBC & Fox Business Websites
Replies: 26
Views: 2875

Re: CNBC & Fox Business Websites

CNBC out of habit, but that's because I watch the channel. Only look at the website for occasional headlines / economic data / futures etc. I actually enjoy the news / market coverage and original programming -- its by far my go to for TV watching. If I didn't watch sports, this would be the only re...
by Snowjob
Mon Jul 13, 2015 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should you own different portfolios
Replies: 14
Views: 1601

Re: Should you own different portfolios

Remember, investing is largely about behavior. To the extent that mental accounting helps avoid bad behavior, then I say the 'different portfolios' approach has its merit. I know this has helped me personally. The key is that you also realize your total expected return across all your invested asset...
by Snowjob
Wed Jul 01, 2015 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 112
Views: 11615

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

While I have never owned them outright, I have given up on the thought of owning them at these rates, same with I-Bonds. I am also in my early 30's if that makes a difference. I do like the idea of a liability matching portfolio, but the construction of one using tips and I-bonds over time (IE throu...
by Snowjob
Thu Jun 25, 2015 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decumulation Phase and BH principles
Replies: 49
Views: 6110

Re: Decumulation Phase and BH principles

...Staying the course and not falling for predatory schemes and confusing, overly complicated systems would also benefit retirees. Agreed, and that's actually benefit of those wage replacement tools, reduces the risk you do something silly later in life when our mental faculties may not be what the...
by Snowjob
Wed Jun 24, 2015 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decumulation Phase and BH principles
Replies: 49
Views: 6110

Re: Decumulation Phase and BH principles

...Staying the course and not falling for predatory schemes and confusing, overly complicated systems would also benefit retirees. Agreed, and that's actually benefit of those wage replacement tools, reduces the risk you do something silly later in life when our mental faculties may not be what the...
by Snowjob
Wed Jun 24, 2015 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 278
Views: 27856

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Early 30s, -- 75% Stock -- 25% Stable Value / Cash

I like Mr Grahams upper and lower bounds...
by Snowjob
Wed Jun 24, 2015 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decumulation Phase and BH principles
Replies: 49
Views: 6110

Re: Decumulation Phase and BH principles

The only real difference is the tools you have available (pension / social security / annuities) which are insanely valuable.

Honestly, their availability makes the decumulation phase easier than the accumulation phase from my perspective. With the accumulation phase there are many more unknowns...
by Snowjob
Tue Jun 09, 2015 7:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are there any merchants that accept only Amex?
Replies: 25
Views: 2394

Re: Are there any merchants that accept only Amex?

Actually was in a small french restraunt in queens several years ago and they only took Amex -- the client had to pay as no one in our team had an Amex on them at the time, we all got quite a laugh out of that one. I suppose they do some all inclusive small business services that bring you into the ...
by Snowjob
Sun May 31, 2015 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clements blog-dividend stocks for retirement income
Replies: 58
Views: 5511

Re: Clements blog-dividend stocks for retirement income

Nothing magic about dividends or dividend stocks over long time series in particular. However, a portfolio of quality dividend paying equities (aka these 'growth stocks') seems to have held up marginally better in the crisis. Someone might have the data but I'm guessing there were much less in the w...
by Snowjob
Tue May 26, 2015 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 152
Views: 10525

Re: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

Risk = Running out of Money - Fix this by buying and SPIA with your 401k. Unfortunately that presents the next risk: Not having enough money to purchase a large enough SPIA.. - if your volatile assets crash and then stubbornly refuse to recover in a timely manner, Volatility will have become a very ...
by Snowjob
Mon May 11, 2015 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement in 2 years?
Replies: 16
Views: 2391

Re: Retirement in 2 years?

Ok, I'm guessing a bit here but this is my two cents -- Congrats, pat yourself on the back, you hit (will hit) the $1 Million mark. But no, I don't think you are financially independent or ready to retire. 1.) valuations between bonds and stocks suggest more muted returns going forward, 2.) At 50, y...
by Snowjob
Tue Mar 31, 2015 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you learn anything from 2008?
Replies: 105
Views: 9904

Re: Did you learn anything from 2008?

Some random thoughts and a general conclusion:P -No matter how low interest rates go, they can always go lower. I had all of my fixed income in the stable value fund at about 3.5-3.9% over the last 6 years and missed opportunity in bonds relative to this. -Leverage is really powerful, and sucks on t...
by Snowjob
Thu Mar 12, 2015 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stocks Long Term Pro/Con
Replies: 51
Views: 4115

Re: 100% Stocks Long Term Pro/Con

Pro - you'll love yourself during bull markets Con - you'll hate yourself during bear markets I found that I was very happy with my performance over the last 8 years of investing until I ran the math on a 'what if' scenario. If I was fully committed to stocks I would have made a ton more money. Now ...
by Snowjob
Wed Feb 04, 2015 3:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you balance frugality and life?
Replies: 50
Views: 6167

Re: How do you balance frugality and life?

TDG -- I've been to the extreme for a good stretch of years -- believe me its not all its cracked up to be. While you feel guilty about not being more "efficient" I feel guilty about having been to frugal for many years. Once you are satisfied with an appropriate savings rate, go enjoy lif...
by Snowjob
Mon Oct 20, 2014 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren
Replies: 47
Views: 4379

Re: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren

Vanguard has vested interest in not telling the public what asset class to avoid and which to buy to any extent beyond the generally accepted academic literature. As long as they don't make a prediction, they can never be wrong. Their goal is to gather as many assets as possible. I have been wrong o...
by Snowjob
Mon Oct 20, 2014 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice needed for next 10 years: Save, spend borrow?
Replies: 27
Views: 4434

Re: Advice needed for next 10 years: Save, spend borrow?

Spend the same, save less and worry less. Kids going to school is a big bump in expenditures, but that will end as will the mortgage. Given your current retirement savings, the eventual swing in cash flow down the road and your estimated inheritance the rational move is likely to save less for retir...
by Snowjob
Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 464
Views: 39226

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

Volatility = Opportunity.

I'm all for a little opportunity, we'll see where this goes.
by Snowjob
Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Dividend Yields & Share Buybacks — A Surprise
Replies: 76
Views: 6910

Re: Stock Dividend Yields & Share Buybacks — A Surprise

Shareholder yield is certainly not a new concept, I've been acutely focused on this over the past 5 years and it has been great.
by Snowjob
Tue Sep 30, 2014 6:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future equities 2% real rhetoric is hogwash
Replies: 45
Views: 4837

Re: Future equities 2% real rhetoric is hogwash

I'm projecting a real return for the next 20 years of the following: - US Stocks 2-3% driven mostly by yield & buyback with no growth - US Bonds 0% All back of the envelope. Assumptions include - Lower bound interest rates killing bonds - No large change in multiples (to end date dependent so I'...
by Snowjob
Mon Sep 29, 2014 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: milestones, skepticism, wealth creation. A thought
Replies: 16
Views: 2551

Re: milestones, skepticism, wealth creation. A thought

Saw the other thread and most folks seemed to be around 55%-65%. Ran my own for another test point. I'm coming up with: 144% Nominal 130% Real The skew is due to my age (lower 30's), no kids, and better returns (leverage). I expect returns to be more in line with the group going forward and cost of ...
by Snowjob
Mon Sep 29, 2014 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I beat Indexing... in 1 hour
Replies: 71
Views: 12467

Re: How I beat Indexing... in 1 hour

I love taking positions on individual stocks, and I applaud you actually posting your trades here. I never do myself... I think deep down inside I don't want the pseudo-public humiliation if I'm "wrong" :oops: In all seriousness, you said buy Baba at 90. Can you layout your case as to why ...
by Snowjob
Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom
Replies: 46
Views: 2109

Re: The only risk of leverage is selling at the bottom

I have been a frequent proponent of responsible leverage and have been open about my use of it on these boards since the summer of 2008. It sucks on the way down, its great on the way up. Always nice to do this when asset prices are cheaper, I typically don't extend much these days. While I would li...
by Snowjob
Thu Sep 18, 2014 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?
Replies: 38
Views: 3351

Re: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?

Of course you can sell individual bonds. You are not forced to hold them to maturity. What are you trying to say with "You don't get the capital appreciation"? You do. The treasury market is extremely liquid. The hassle amounts to a few mouse clicks every year or so. There are no commissi...
by Snowjob
Wed Aug 06, 2014 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommendation for a 2 man tent
Replies: 23
Views: 1426

Recommendation for a 2 man tent

I've never purchased one before, usually just used the ones from the boy scout troop growing up. The family had a 4 man for ages but its beyond repair and extremely bulky and heavy. I'm looking for a two man tent, 3 season should be fine. I don't do a lot of aggressive trail hiking so I'm not concer...
by Snowjob
Fri Jul 25, 2014 4:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds beat stocks over the last 15 years
Replies: 93
Views: 9253

Re: Bonds beat stocks over the last 15 years

Yes, for me, one of the big puzzles in investing is just how to approach the "long term" data. All of the impressive numbers involve an implicit assumption that a) the long-term future WILL resemble the long-term past, and that b) you, the individual investor hoping to tip your odds a bit...
by Snowjob
Thu Jul 24, 2014 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Conservative Assumptions For Retirement Calculators
Replies: 14
Views: 1968

Re: Conservative Assumptions For Retirement Calculators

I use a 2% real return over the long haul and a flat 1 a month for social security as a potential bonus down the road.
by Snowjob
Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 767
Views: 121598

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

Yes, I agree with the rationale of Mortgage Your Retirement. In fact, I think OP's method of leveraging into a balanced fund makes more sense than a leveraged bet on equities, due to capturing the benefits of the term premium (positive expected return, negatively correlated with equities). Implemen...
by Snowjob
Sun Jul 20, 2014 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 767
Views: 121598

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

Yes, I agree with the rationale of Mortgage Your Retirement. In fact, I think OP's method of leveraging into a balanced fund makes more sense than a leveraged bet on equities, due to capturing the benefits of the term premium (positive expected return, negatively correlated with equities). Implemen...
by Snowjob
Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 767
Views: 121598

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

1) Sure, I agree that margin rates are adjustable. Aren't there adjustable rate mortgages also? People seem fairly comfortable using those. Though, I agree that equity in a house is likely to vary less than that of a balanced fund. That is probably why mortgages often start at 4:1 leverage. I'll go...
by Snowjob
Wed Jul 16, 2014 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 767
Views: 121598

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

Questions: 1) How is this different from using a home mortgage and contributing to a 401k? 2) If someone believes in staying the course with their AA, does anything change when using leverage? For example, does an 80/20 non-leveraged AA turn into 60/40 when leveraged 2x? 3) What stays the same? TLH...
by Snowjob
Tue Jul 01, 2014 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: P2P Lending
Replies: 12
Views: 1200

Re: P2P Lending

Did prosper.com right at the peak around 2007. I think I funded about 7 or 8 hundred dollars in loans and had a fairly high default rate in the end. I think a lot of this had to do with the cycle in the economy more than anything else. (I have no way of proving this of course). You will never make m...
by Snowjob
Mon Jun 23, 2014 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First Post - Early Retirement Planning
Replies: 4
Views: 1254

Re: First Post - Early Retirement Planning

Thanks for the update on what the balance of your wages are being used for! I think given that piece of the puzzle the framework changes a bit. I see you more aiming for "financial independence" rather than early retirement, and that I think is a wonderful goal. That flexibility is pricele...
by Snowjob
Mon Jun 23, 2014 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First Post - Early Retirement Planning
Replies: 4
Views: 1254

Re: First Post - Early Retirement Planning

I think it would be helpful if you gave us a breakdown of your expenses / savings and let us know where the$ are going -- 28% tax bracket would put you at least 85k per year I think. Total contributions to investments being about 16k per year. That leaves almost 60k for taxes and spending. What type...
by Snowjob
Mon Jun 23, 2014 4:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First Post - Early Retirement Planning
Replies: 4
Views: 1254

Re: First Post - Early Retirement Planning

I think you are being to aggressive with your assumptions. The portfolio is a little small and I think you would be wiser to work longer and save more. Not the advice you want to hear but its good advice. I should have taken it myself a few years ago when I was really geared up for a potential exit....
by Snowjob
Sun Jun 15, 2014 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend growth question
Replies: 29
Views: 2463

Re: Dividend growth question

There is a way out of this conundrum, which is to say that the companies paying dividends are self-selecting, i.e. they tend to be those without good internal reinvestment opportunities. I can sort of accept this to some degree... I agree, I think there is probably some self selection when it comes...
by Snowjob
Sun Jun 15, 2014 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Death of Savings Bonds
Replies: 33
Views: 3662

Re: The Death of Savings Bonds

3.5% nominal (if you lock it for 20 years) looks rough. I hope it doesn't turn out to be a good investment or we may be in some pain in the years a head. If I had no alternative I'd do 2% CD's and hope for a shift in rates and/or a crash. something that would allow me to extend on the risk curve
by Snowjob
Sun Jun 15, 2014 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Death of Savings Bonds
Replies: 33
Views: 3662

Re: The Death of Savings Bonds

Clearly a sizeable number, but I voted for all. I wonder if there were no limit to how many I-bonds / EE-bonds you could buy if that would make them less attractive to people and reduce the purchase even more. We are loath to miss an opportunity to "miss" a Roth or 401k contribution becaus...
by Snowjob
Sun Jun 15, 2014 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend growth question
Replies: 29
Views: 2463

Re: Dividend growth question

It's easy to imagine only the scenarios in which returning cash was an advantage. But consider these balancing aspects: dividends reinvested / buybacks (difference is indeed irrelevant here) at very high prices and on the way down; Huh? I never said returning cash is always good. I specifically cal...
by Snowjob
Sun Jun 15, 2014 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend growth question
Replies: 29
Views: 2463

Re: Dividend growth question

I stand by my prior assertion, that on the margins, the dividend in the downturn is actually a net positive if reinvested . Even with the 15% drag its probably on balance better then having it retained and though in a tax advantaged account its a clear win. The simple fact is that by and large corp...
by Snowjob
Sun Jun 15, 2014 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Liability Matching Portfolio] LMP -> In Between Years.
Replies: 18
Views: 1152

Re: LMP -> In Between Years.

then scratch everything I said in my response. work longer, save more, reduce expectations and possibly step out on a limb and take more risk.

Problem is you don't make squat with tips these days.
by Snowjob
Sun Jun 15, 2014 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Liability Matching Portfolio] LMP -> In Between Years.
Replies: 18
Views: 1152

Re: LMP -> In Between Years.

Assuming the math on the ss payout is correct and doesn't change much (I think after certain amount of dollars contributed the payout increase relative to those dollars is TINY) So he still needs to generate the remaining 21k per year. I think he could probably squeeze out that buying an SPIA with l...
by Snowjob
Sun Jun 15, 2014 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brett Arends's "Perfect Portfolio" Comments?
Replies: 24
Views: 2226

Re: Brett Arends's "Perfect Portfolio" Comments?

Basically what Rick said above. Perfect as far as returns go, will depend on the time series you look at. So unless you are actively managing your exposure to different sectors (individual stocks, the possibilities are to many to even have this discussion) you will never have the perfect portfolio a...
by Snowjob
Sat Jun 14, 2014 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend growth question
Replies: 29
Views: 2463

Re: Dividend growth question

You're partially right. They MIGHT expect better returns longer term, but only because they are 100% equity. And yes, they MIGHT have a constant cash flow, even in down markets. But that comes from the fact they are essentially "selling low". Or more accurately, the companies are "se...
by Snowjob
Fri Jun 13, 2014 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend growth question
Replies: 29
Views: 2463

Re: Dividend growth question

You're partially right. They MIGHT expect better returns longer term, but only because they are 100% equity. And yes, they MIGHT have a constant cash flow, even in down markets. But that comes from the fact they are essentially "selling low". Or more accurately, the companies are "se...
by Snowjob
Mon Jun 09, 2014 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To own at least 1 share of every company in SP500
Replies: 27
Views: 2350

Re: To own at least 1 share of every company in SP500

In theory would you then end up with fractional shares of some companies if you were trying to mimic the S&P?

Interesting concept, before the days of the index fund this might have been a savvy way to pull it off.
by Snowjob
Mon Jun 09, 2014 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are Insurance Stocks So Cheap?
Replies: 18
Views: 2058

Re: Why Are Insurance Stocks So Cheap?

Been a huge fan of Travelers for several years now. Great underwriting, low risk in the investment portfolio (save interest rate risk), returns about 100% of cash every year to buy backs and dividends. Finally getting priced up to where it should be. That said we've had several non-event catastrophe...
by Snowjob
Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100 year portfolio
Replies: 10
Views: 987

Re: 100 year portfolio

Way to many variables, to think about when looking at life -- children , divorces etc etc. But if it was up to me given today's environment, 55% Tax-Managed Large Cap 15% Tax-Managed Small Cap 15% All world-Ex US 15% Fixed Income (pooled I-Bonds / EE Bonds / CDs for current needs) have all of the &q...
by Snowjob
Thu May 01, 2014 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excessive margin debt
Replies: 5
Views: 1039

Re: Excessive margin debt

It looks like excessive margin debt is back. Should we be worried? http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/markets/nyse-margin-debt.html?NYSE-margin-debt-SPX-since-1995.gif Maybe, maybe not. https://philosophicaleconomics.wordpress.com/2013/10/25/margin-debt/ That's a fantastic blog, if anyone...

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