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Re: Interesting article about CAPE/ PE10

Camontgo,
Have you found the time to expand on your tests with respect to the "philosophical economics" blog? This thread is very interesting IMO but it seems to have petered out. I'm hoping you can revive it. Thanks.
by SlowEddie
Wed Jan 08, 2014 12:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting article about CAPE/ PE10
Replies: 16
Views: 2291

Re: I could use some Wash Rules help, please

Archbish99, thanks for your reply. Let me respond: My original sale was this December and I understand because it was a gain rather than a loss, wash sales don't apply to this transaction. (I just mentioned this to explain why I bought the fund back a few days later). I also understand I received a ...
by SlowEddie
Sat Dec 29, 2012 8:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I could use some Wash Rules help, please
Replies: 3
Views: 319

I could use some Wash Rules help, please

In late December I sold a Vanguard non-tax-sheltered mutual fund and realized a long-term capital gain to avoid taking a future gain at a potentially higher rate. A few days later I bought back the same fund (more shares than I sold). However, duh, I forgot to check Vanguard's dividend schedule and ...
by SlowEddie
Sat Dec 29, 2012 6:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I could use some Wash Rules help, please
Replies: 3
Views: 319

Free sources of data for world financial ratios

Back in the late 1990s, Bill Bernstein would occasionally publish "What's Cheap" on his Efficient Frontier website. His lists would include P/E and P/B for several asset classes and regions of the globe. Sometimes the list would be country specific. I would have thought this information wo...
by SlowEddie
Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Free sources of data for world financial ratios
Replies: 0
Views: 127

Re: Please review my social security strategy

I'd like to thank everyone, again! As an aside (and I hope this doesn't violate forum rules) I used SocialSecurityChoice.com's free tool and then paid the $29.99 for their "premier" tools. I then built a spreadsheet as penguin had originally suggested to fine tune their results, but was un...
by SlowEddie
Mon Sep 03, 2012 7:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please review my social security strategy
Replies: 16
Views: 1914

Re: Please review my social security strategy

rocket, My wife's PIA is 111.8% of mine. We have sufficient assets other than SS to help the surviving spouse, but some of those assets aren't terribly liquid which is why I'm opting to take one full benefit and one spousal benefit. penguin and dickenjb, I crunched the numbers and the breakeven poin...
by SlowEddie
Sun Sep 02, 2012 3:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please review my social security strategy
Replies: 16
Views: 1914

Re: Please review my social security strategy

Penguin, you make be right. We would gain 9 or 10 months of spousal benefits by starting now, but my benefit would be reduced about 5%-6% as long as I draw breath, so it all comes down to how many breaths I plan to draw. I'll crunch the numbers.
by SlowEddie
Sat Sep 01, 2012 3:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please review my social security strategy
Replies: 16
Views: 1914

Re: Please review my social security strategy

That's good, new info. I had thought widower's benefits were based on the deceased’s PIA. Not that it matters – odds are she'll out live me! The windfall elimination does not come into play. Thanks so much!
by SlowEddie
Sat Sep 01, 2012 2:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please review my social security strategy
Replies: 16
Views: 1914

Please review my social security strategy

I think I have my social security strategy figured out, but I am hoping sscritic or other experts will critique it and assure me I'm thinking clearly: I will turn 66 next April (my FRA). My wife will be 67 years and 4 months old at that time (her FRA is also 66). Her PIA is somewhat more than mine. ...
by SlowEddie
Sat Sep 01, 2012 2:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please review my social security strategy
Replies: 16
Views: 1914

Re: Post Modern Portfolio Theory, Revisited

Obviously, I didn't explain myself well. In Modern Portfolio Theory as originated by Markowitz, and expanded by Sharpe, Miller and others, standard deviation of investment returns is used as a proxy for risk. More recent research referred to as PMMT by Sortino and a host of others uses downside risk...
by SlowEddie
Fri May 04, 2012 5:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Post Modern Portfolio Theory, Revisited
Replies: 11
Views: 3067

Post Modern Portfolio Theory, Revisited

In an eternal attempt to lessen downside risk, every few years I try to update my understanding of Post Modern Portfolio Theory, if for no other reason but to see what the latest academic theories are. Bogleheads bring up PMMT in varied forms usually involving discussions of the diversification bene...
by SlowEddie
Fri May 04, 2012 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Post Modern Portfolio Theory, Revisited
Replies: 11
Views: 3067

Re: How to invest in equities and stay sane

To me, the piece of advice I liked was the reference to human tendency to extrapolate current observations into the future (e.g. European debt crisis) without considering that humans might make decisions to "right the ship". I know I'm guilty of that. If you're there Lbill, I too couldn't ...
by SlowEddie
Wed Apr 25, 2012 8:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to invest in equities and stay sane
Replies: 7
Views: 911

How to invest in equities and stay sane

Following is a link to a recent article on the Vanguard web site, in case you missed it: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/invest-hocknell-042012. I'm not familiar with Mr. Hocknell, a co-manager of three actively-managed Vanguard funds, but I thought his comments made a lot of sense...
by SlowEddie
Tue Apr 24, 2012 7:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to invest in equities and stay sane
Replies: 7
Views: 911

Re: Jeremy Grantham interview in Barron's

GRT2Boutdoors, Thanks. I used to have a second home in the northern tier of PA and I'm very familiar with what's going on with Marcellus shale gas. The glut will likely get worse before it gets better as, say, New York, relaxes their moratorium on fracking and even more drilling is done. For the rea...
by SlowEddie
Wed Feb 29, 2012 9:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham interview in Barron's
Replies: 18
Views: 1994

Re: Early retirement to Florida

Hi, Victoria, I'm fascinated by your post, and would like to throw in my two cents, but with a slightly different slant. I retired very early and my wife and I traveled extensively, often going off for six months to a year at a time. It was the most mind expanding and fulfilling thing I've ever done...
by SlowEddie
Wed Feb 29, 2012 9:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Early retirement to Florida
Replies: 177
Views: 18348

Re: Jeremy Grantham interview in Barron's

I thought the most interesting part of the interview was that natural gas was a "dazzling" opportunity, but he didn't follow up as to how to play it. He seems to be saying that the relationship between the price of natural gas and oil will revert to their historic relationship, but will ga...
by SlowEddie
Wed Feb 29, 2012 9:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham interview in Barron's
Replies: 18
Views: 1994

Re: In what cases are advisors useful?

I'm a firm believer that advisors can add great value, even if you're the most informed person on this forum. Although I self manage my portfolio, I have used a low cost DFA advisor to access certain equity classes not easily accessed through other fund families, and to access institutional share cl...
by SlowEddie
Sun Feb 19, 2012 12:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what cases are advisors useful?
Replies: 31
Views: 1773

Re: What is a Timber Investment?

donfairplay: $1 million is actually a low amount to join a TIMO. The Molpus Group, one of the big boys who manages timber for the Ivy League universities, had an entry price of $5 million, last I knew, and that's down from $50 million! I guess times are tough. Valuethinker: Thanks for your reply. I ...
by SlowEddie
Sun Feb 19, 2012 11:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a Timber Investment?
Replies: 23
Views: 1975

Re: What is a Timber Investment?

I own timber land as an investment and include it as part of my commodity allocation. My experience is that it is possible to buy timber land for less than $100,000, but you'll have to devote a lot of time chasing down bad leads (poor quality "stems"). Beware that non-diversified timber in...
by SlowEddie
Sun Feb 19, 2012 9:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a Timber Investment?
Replies: 23
Views: 1975

Valuethinker, I can't argue any of the specific faults you find with other currencies. To quote the WSJ (I think it was) "the US dollar is the least ugly dog in an ugly dog contest". But I do stay up at night worrying about the US' fiscal situation (read Reinhart and Rogoff -- "This T...
by SlowEddie
Thu Jun 16, 2011 9:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to buy sovereign debt (individual bonds)
Replies: 33
Views: 3788

Valuethinker: I appreciate your comment, and, no, I don't know very much about, say, Australian politics. But I do believe, and I think the literature backs me up, that overseas investing in both equities and debt is a great diversifier -- and a possible hedge against a declining US dollar. My reaso...
by SlowEddie
Thu Jun 16, 2011 9:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to buy sovereign debt (individual bonds)
Replies: 33
Views: 3788

Thank-you, Karamatsu.
by SlowEddie
Tue Jun 14, 2011 7:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to buy sovereign debt (individual bonds)
Replies: 33
Views: 3788

how to buy sovereign debt (individual bonds)

Does anyone have experience in buying individual sovereign bonds? My research to date has produced no low-cost on-line broker who traffics in these assets. Here’s a somewhat outdated link that seems to support the difficulty: http://www.kiplinger.com/columns/balance/archive/2009/balance0811.html I s...
by SlowEddie
Mon Jun 13, 2011 4:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to buy sovereign debt (individual bonds)
Replies: 33
Views: 3788

I'm writing to add my two cents to this thread. I've been a Flagship customer for 20-some years, and I believe that Vanguard's competence in processing routine brokerage transactions has reached a level that I can only describe as wretched. In frustration, I’ve written Mr. McNabb with a long litany ...
by SlowEddie
Wed Jun 09, 2010 7:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Customer Service Dropping?
Replies: 30
Views: 5804

Insurance1288: The broker sent me the recent open offerings, and they are still in the range of 7%. nisiprius: I'm not looking for liquidity; I would hold to maturity. grok87: I think you've hit the nail on the head with respect to legal risk. My opinion of the Investment News artcle is that it does...
by SlowEddie
Mon May 24, 2010 7:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: secondary market annuities
Replies: 29
Views: 9386

Mel, Not on this case. E.g., a recent sale of a State Farm annuity cost $109,082.53, and had a single payout scheduled on Dec 5, 2021 of $240,000. That's 7% Y-T-M. Check this out: http://www.annuityfyi.com/compare-secondary-market-immediate-annuities.html. These are recent deals that closed. Ed
by SlowEddie
Sun May 23, 2010 4:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: secondary market annuities
Replies: 29
Views: 9386

secondary market annuities

I recently stumbled across the following site: http://www.annuityfyi.com. The site has a link to secondary market annuities that are brokered by Somerset Wealth Strategies, a Raymond James franchise. The product works like this: Someone wins the lottery or wins a court award and accepts a fixed annu...
by SlowEddie
Sun May 23, 2010 2:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: secondary market annuities
Replies: 29
Views: 9386

I tend to agree with your wife. I know what I'm about to say is a form of market timing, but: by traditional standards most observers think equities are richly valued, including REITS. Why not wait for a big correction, whenever it comes, and then reallocate equities/REITS to your ROTH and bonds to ...
by SlowEddie
Sat Jan 09, 2010 10:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Location Question
Replies: 5
Views: 937

Penumbra, once upon a time I was the chief administrator for a group of 150 MDs, so I know whereof you speak! Every day was herding cats. It was fun though; kept me on my toes. You couldn't possibly have given Steve a better endorsement. Once again, thanks to all for your comments. They have been ve...
by SlowEddie
Fri Dec 04, 2009 8:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Evanson vs. Cardiff Park, revisited
Replies: 15
Views: 4164

Thank you very much to all of you for responding. I talked at length with Steven Evanston last evening and was very impressed. It's good to have my impressions reinforced. Like all Bogleheads I'm extremely sensitive to expenses, but for those of you who aren't familiar with Evanston, his fees are as...
by SlowEddie
Thu Dec 03, 2009 12:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Evanson vs. Cardiff Park, revisited
Replies: 15
Views: 4164

Evanson vs. Cardiff Park, revisited

Back in August 2008 "ABQMarie" began a thoughtful thread, 21973, regarding her need for a financial planner. I was just reviewing that thread because I've come to the tentative conclusion that a planner might well be worth the price for the following reasons: My spouse is much less interes...
by SlowEddie
Wed Dec 02, 2009 9:16 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Evanson vs. Cardiff Park, revisited
Replies: 15
Views: 4164

AA questions based upon JFP Article by Wm. J Coaker II

Recently, I spent a lot of time studying William J. Coaker’s article in the September 2007 Journal of Financial Planning. Link: http://www.fpanet.org/journal/articles/2007_Issues/upload/56354_1.pdf It has led me to a few questions and I would like to know what others think: 1). Because mid-cap stock...
by SlowEddie
Sun Mar 30, 2008 9:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA questions based upon JFP Article by Wm. J Coaker II
Replies: 2
Views: 992

definitions

Hi, I've just spent several hours enjoying thread #12332, The Great Debate. Much of that time, however, was spent in looking up terms used by very sophisticated members. For instance, the term CCF was used scores of times, yet never defined. I understand that it somehow relates to commodities and co...
by SlowEddie
Fri Feb 08, 2008 9:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: definitions
Replies: 1
Views: 644

What a powerful and fast tool! Thank you very much.

Ed
by SlowEddie
Sat Dec 22, 2007 10:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EasyAllocator.com no longer around?
Replies: 25
Views: 8234

I woke up in the middle of the night and said, “duh, of course those guys are right about taxes on Roth IRAs”. When I did those spread sheets when Roth IRAs first came out, they were based upon making an Roth IRA transfer, versus doing nothing. Guess I misspoke. Sorry.

Ed
by SlowEddie
Mon Dec 10, 2007 8:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: capital preservation and equity allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 3815

I've never exactly been tortured with self doubt, but you all have given me a lot to reflect upon! Humbling. But allow me to defend myself a little bit, since none of my portfolio decisions were made without some thought. I don't have a tax code crystal ball, and I'm not trying to make a political a...
by SlowEddie
Sun Dec 09, 2007 9:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: capital preservation and equity allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 3815

Hey, Buckeye, don't worry about me -- I AM having a heck of a time!!! I wanted to also respond to Greenberry's thoughtful comments. I ran spreadsheets regarding Roth IRA conversions several years ago until I couldn't see straight, and yes, there is a decided advantage in later years to a conversion,...
by SlowEddie
Sat Dec 08, 2007 5:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: capital preservation and equity allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 3815

Thanks for your responses. As requested, here are my holdings: Vanguard MM 21.63%; Tips, i-bonds and VAIPX 14.19; VFIJX 8.70; TASCX 8.47; OAKIX 5.58; VWEAX 5.36; PLMDX 5.20; VWNAX 4.91; VFSUX 4.90; OAKEX 4.09; FDGFX 3.43; VGPMX 3.03; VGHCX 2.90; VINEX 2.67; VGENX 2.49; TAREX 2.45. The taxable portio...
by SlowEddie
Sat Dec 08, 2007 11:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: capital preservation and equity allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 3815

capital preservation and equity allocation

Hi, My name is Ed and I’m a new member of this forum, although I have been lurking for many months. I’d like to think I’m a fairly sophisticated, long-term investor, but I’m amazed at the depth and breadth of knowledge exhibited here. Capital preservation is my main concern, and my deceptively simpl...
by SlowEddie
Fri Dec 07, 2007 11:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: capital preservation and equity allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 3815

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