Search found 1625 matches

by Simplegift
Sun Jul 05, 2015 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese Move to Stabilize Stock Market
Replies: 10
Views: 640

Re: Chinese Move to Stabilize Stock Market

Though the current bear market is certainly impacting local Chinese investors, the reality is that most foreign investors (including those of us invested in diversified emerging market indexes) are much less affected. Most foreign investors still don't have full or even partial access to Chinese mai...
by Simplegift
Sun Jul 05, 2015 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chart: The World's Stock Markets in the Year 2050
Replies: 7
Views: 593

Re: Chart: The World's Stock Markets in the Year 2050

This linked Credit Suisse publication also has equity market share projections to 2030 (Figure 13). https://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/?fileID=9C351493-CF21-3FE8-DD5FBB479EA88C54 Thanks for the link to the report and chart (copied below), Robert T . Credit Suisse uses a somewh...
by Simplegift
Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chart: The World's Stock Markets in the Year 2050
Replies: 7
Views: 593

Chart: The World's Stock Markets in the Year 2050

Thumbing through Jeremy Siegel's book, Stocks for the Long Run (4th edition) , I ran across the chart below that somehow I'd never noticed before. It shows a forecast of the relative market capitalization of the world's stock markets in the year 2050 — just 35 years away, which encompasses a good po...
by Simplegift
Sat Jul 04, 2015 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't we obsessing way too much about our portfolios?
Replies: 45
Views: 2814

Re: Aren't we obsessing way too much about our portfolios?

Is it really worth all the time and worry we devote to this stuff? Probably not. What really makes a difference is sticking with your strategy over the long run... For buy-and-hold investors, portfolio design is a much more important and momentous life decision than it is for active or strategic al...
by Simplegift
Sat Jul 04, 2015 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 272
Views: 17950

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

With over 45 new responses, it's time for an updated chart (n = 217 now). There's been no significant change in the slope of the trend line since the last chart. A tranquil 4th-of-July to all! http://i.imgur.com/NTQj0YE.png Note: In cases of paired investors, the age charted is the average of the tw...
by Simplegift
Fri Jul 03, 2015 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Overwhelmingly Choosing Low-Cost, Passive Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 955

Re: Investors Overwhelmingly Choosing Low-Cost, Passive Funds

Looking at the big picture, I'm not as pessimistic about the adoption of the low cost, indexing approach to investing. Certainly everyday investors have to wade through an immense amount of expensive media advertising touting actively-managed funds — but it's not unreasonable to expect that consumer...
by Simplegift
Fri Jul 03, 2015 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-based asset allocation (as of 7-3-15)
Replies: 11
Views: 758

Re: Valuation-based asset allocation (as of 7-3-15)

Given the infrequent adjustments proposed by Pfau based upon a slow-moving Shiller P/E (CAPE 10) readings, it appears to align with Graham's advice to have "a consistent and conservative policy" . Compared with the simple, proven Boglehead strategy of buy-hold-rebalance, this sounds fairl...
by Simplegift
Fri Jul 03, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-based asset allocation (as of 7-3-15)
Replies: 11
Views: 758

Re: Valuation-based asset allocation (as of 7-3-15)

The valuation- based formula is suggesting 43% stocks at this CAPE level, which is not that far from 50%, a suggestion offered by Ben Graham for most "defensive" investors. Rx 4 , it's worth reading the entirety of Ben Graham's advice regarding the "defensive investor" (from The...
by Simplegift
Fri Jul 03, 2015 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Bond Market Bubble
Replies: 43
Views: 3344

Re: U.S. Bond Market Bubble

I have been reading about a U.S. bond market bubble. If that is the case, what bond funds would be the safest to invest in at this time? Have any of you adjusted your portfolio because of a worry about bonds? As other posters have mentioned, it's not that bonds are in a bubble, but rather their rol...
by Simplegift
Fri Jul 03, 2015 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?
Replies: 55
Views: 3319

Re: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?

Reasons for intermediate (5 year) bond duration in a portfolio context [75% stock:25% bond] Portfolio context is an important aspect of bond duration that hasn't been explicitly discussed yet. Most of Mr. Bernstein's advice about bond allocation and duration, I believe, is directed toward those who...
by Simplegift
Fri Jul 03, 2015 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?
Replies: 55
Views: 3319

Re: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?

I question the "need" for longer duration bonds for deflation protection. What is the risk via a vis portfolio value? Cash in the bank (or even under the mattress) will do nicely in deflation. You may be right. There haven't been that many periods of deflation in the U.S. to study during ...
by Simplegift
Fri Jul 03, 2015 4:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?
Replies: 55
Views: 3319

Re: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?

Going back to look over my notes about why I chose a 4.0-year bond duration to begin with, I found this general outline (from prior to the TIPS era): http://i.imgur.com/XEOUFza.png The 50% allocation to short-term bonds would satisfy Mr. Bernstein, I believe, as it incorporates both inflation protec...
by Simplegift
Thu Jul 02, 2015 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?
Replies: 55
Views: 3319

Re: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?

Thanks all for your replies so far. With all bond portfolios, there is an obvious tension between safety and return, especially in today's low interest rate environment. Mr. Bernstein has consistently taken the view that one's bond allocation should be nearly "risk-free" (very short-term a...
by Simplegift
Thu Jul 02, 2015 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?
Replies: 55
Views: 3319

What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?

Well into retirement now, I'm re-organizing my bond portfolio this week (50% of total assets) and find myself wondering about a reasonable duration to adopt in this day and age. I've never been one to tactically adjust the bond portfolio's duration based on the outlook for interest rates, but rather...
by Simplegift
Thu Jul 02, 2015 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Overwhelmingly Choosing Low-Cost, Passive Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 955

Re: Investors Overwhelmingly Choosing Low-Cost, Passive Funds

Morningstar also published a brief follow-up article on their 2015 mutual fund fee study, with the chart below showing the 25-year history of net flows into actively-managed funds, by cost quintiles. Prior to 2003, it appears investors did not have a strong preference for low cost funds, but somethi...
by Simplegift
Wed Jul 01, 2015 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Overwhelmingly Choosing Low-Cost, Passive Funds
Replies: 7
Views: 955

Investors Overwhelmingly Choosing Low-Cost, Passive Funds

Morningstar has recently published a very informative study on U.S. mutual fund fees, which looked at trends in fund flows and asset-weighted expense ratios over the past 10 years. A few of their principal findings: • Over the last decade, 95% of all net fund flows have gone to funds in the lowest-c...
by Simplegift
Tue Jun 30, 2015 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 70
Views: 4707

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

The current interest rate environment is challenging. Inflation forecasts appear very tame. TIPS are intended to protect against unexpected inflation, so inflation forecasts should have nothing to do with their attractiveness (relative to other bonds). Plus, inflation forecasts, both by professiona...
by Simplegift
Tue Jun 30, 2015 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 70
Views: 4707

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

Should an investor focus on beating inflation over the long term with equities or investing in unexpected inflation "insurance" with TIPS? An investor should do both, in my view. In a 50% stock/50% bond balanced portfolio such as mine, the equities have the long-term responsibility of gro...
by Simplegift
Tue Jun 30, 2015 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign bond funds
Replies: 6
Views: 584

Re: Foreign bond funds

Should Vanguard have an unhedged foreign bond fund in its future? The problem with unhedged foreign bond funds is that the currency fluctuations are so large in proportion to the fund's normal volatility that they dominate the performance (chart below). Unless one has a crystal ball about the direc...
by Simplegift
Tue Jun 30, 2015 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are REITs necessary in a portfolio? Why?
Replies: 84
Views: 5853

Re: Are REITs necessary in a portfolio? Why?

Some may say that they provide higher income than regular stocks, but one should worry about total return and not income, so I ask: why should one bother to own them? One aspect of REITs worth considering is as inflation protection in the portfolio, and not just for income or diversification. Some ...
by Simplegift
Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Four Vanguard International Equity Index changing/broadening indexes
Replies: 64
Views: 6366

Re: Vg Emerging Markets Index and China A-Shares

The Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund (VEIEX or VEMAX) is changing their tracking index to an index that includes “China A-Shares,” and thus the portfolio composition will change with it. It's worth noting that the recent inclusion of China A-shares in the FTSE Emerging Index is just a &qu...
by Simplegift
Tue Jun 30, 2015 1:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone have a cordless electric or robotic lawn mower?
Replies: 8
Views: 925

Re: Anyone have a cordless electric or robotic lawn mower?

Any thoughts for those who have a cordless? We've used a battery-powered electric mower for about 5 years now and absolutely love it. Ours is an early, first-generation electric mower, a 24-volt, 21-inch EPIC Model EP21H — which I'm not sure is even sold in the U.S. anymore (though we've been able ...
by Simplegift
Mon Jun 29, 2015 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puerto Rico Governor Says Island’s Debts Are ‘Not Payable’
Replies: 37
Views: 3080

Re: Puerto Rico Governor Says Island’s Debts Are ‘Not Payable’

To keep it on-topic, does anyone know which vanguard bond funds hold Puerto Rico bonds, or are otherwise affected? None of the Vanguard muni funds appears to hold a significant percentage of Puerto Rico bonds (table below) — but it's very likely the entire municipal bond market will get the jitters...
by Simplegift
Sun Jun 28, 2015 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bonds as a Portfolio Proxy for EM Stocks?
Replies: 22
Views: 1794

Re: Emerging Market Bonds as a Portfolio Proxy for EM Stocks?

I do suspect however that EM local debt will be significantly less volatile in the future than EM equity. It might be an asset class to consider if you want to tap into EM potential but avoid the white knuckle roller coaster ride of EM equity. When adding emerging market bonds to a portfolio, becau...
by Simplegift
Sun Jun 28, 2015 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 272
Views: 17950

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Via PM, there was a request for updated data comparing Bogleheads' stock allocations from 2007, 2011 and 2015, based on previous polls about the same question. Here's what our shifting stock allocations look like over time, by age: http://i.imgur.com/7sj9DaM.png NOTE: For 2007, n = 101; for 2011, n ...
by Simplegift
Sun Jun 28, 2015 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]
Replies: 155
Views: 14412

Re: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]

So the worry from back when this thread started, that Greece was going to be the first in a series of ever-larger dominoes in the Eurozone to fall, does not seem to be a likely possibility based on the bond markets. Looking at the prices of sovereign debt default swaps — the daily prices on the ope...
by Simplegift
Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 272
Views: 17950

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

An updated chart to reflect all the recent responses. Total responses now stand at 172 and counting — but there's been no appreciable shift in the trend line since the first chart. What's especially remarkable to me is the wide dispersion of stock allocations among Bogleheads across the entire age s...
by Simplegift
Sat Jun 27, 2015 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bonds as a Portfolio Proxy for EM Stocks?
Replies: 22
Views: 1794

Re: Emerging Market Bonds as a Portfolio Proxy for EM Stocks?

Researching the source of returns for emerging market bonds, I ran across the chart below, which breaks down the relative contributions of income, capital appreciation and currency fluctuations to EM bond returns for the 2002-2014 period. Income was by far the largest component of return, but capita...
by Simplegift
Sat Jun 27, 2015 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bonds as a Portfolio Proxy for EM Stocks?
Replies: 22
Views: 1794

Emerging Market Bonds as a Portfolio Proxy for EM Stocks?

In a recent thread , the idea was raised about using emerging market bonds as a substitute, either in part or whole, for one's portfolio allocation to emerging market stocks — and it's an intriguing enough option to deserve its own discussion. When one compares the growth charts of emerging market b...
by Simplegift
Sat Jun 27, 2015 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2991

Re: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?

The problem of course is which EM bonds to select and at what expense. Can you suggest an EM bond fund that is worthy of consideration? Not having researched emerging market bond funds or ETFs, I'll have to defer to other Bogleheads for specific recommendations. As best I know though, EM bonds come...
by Simplegift
Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2991

Re: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?

Capital markets have also become more integrated, and arguably will be even more so in the future. What are the implications for global stock and bond returns? Not so clear to me. This is an important consideration and is the reason why investors should still maintain at least a market-cap weighted...
by Simplegift
Sat Jun 27, 2015 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2991

Re: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?

I draw the line with EM bonds. Their yields are attractive relative to DM and US counterparts but when economic crisis hits, EM bonds, unlike high quality US bonds, have historically failed to be a shelter in the storm. Since the main reason I hold bonds in the first place is to provide safety when...
by Simplegift
Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too Much Indexing???
Replies: 44
Views: 3663

Re: Too Much Indexing???

What's missing from this discussion is the difference in turnover rates between passively-managed equities and actively-managed equities. In the chart below, it's assumed that passive equities have a 10% annual turnover rate, while active equities have a 100% turnover rate — both reasonable estimate...
by Simplegift
Fri Jun 26, 2015 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2991

Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?

This post reports on recent research into the relationship between the age structure of populations and their stock and bond returns. Since population age changes are fairly predictable and immutable for decades into the future, this relationship can provide insights into the future returns of globa...
by Simplegift
Fri Jun 26, 2015 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads are more aggressive...
Replies: 57
Views: 6043

Re: Bogleheads are more aggressive...

Recent and past polls suggest Boglehead respondents, on average, hold more stocks than many traditional guidelines. For instance, the average is closer to age-15 in bonds, rather than age in bonds (the precise numbers are not important, as long as the general impression is). Though Bogleheads are c...
by Simplegift
Fri Jun 26, 2015 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interest rate risk and bonds
Replies: 8
Views: 907

Re: Interest rate risk and bonds

The only place for interest rates to go is up in the future. Therefore the bond portion of the typical asset allocation model would suffer asset price losses. This in my opinion puts the passive investing model at great risk for sustained losses in the not too distant future. What if any action can...
by Simplegift
Thu Jun 25, 2015 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 7926

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

Throwing this question out to Bogleheads: are there other alternatives in portfolio allocation that we should consider to improve long term returns in what we expect to be sluggish markets?.....Or should be simply stay the course, a plan that has worked very well for decades for patient investors a...
by Simplegift
Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did 2008 change your investing strategy?
Replies: 58
Views: 4722

Re: Did 2008 change your investing strategy?

Yes, my investment strategy (and my written investment policy statement) did change a bit as a result of the 2008 financial crisis and market meltdown. Because I was unable at that time to rebalance out of bonds and into stocks, due to the widespread systemic concerns about the stability of the glob...
by Simplegift
Thu Jun 25, 2015 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 26347

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

The current Shiller P/E is 27.1. Having been in the markets over 30 years, I will continue to cling to the notion that markets do occasionally experience "regression to the mean." Assuming the automatic reversion of CAPE to a historical mean is a tricky proposition — as if this were a nat...
by Simplegift
Thu Jun 25, 2015 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 272
Views: 17950

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Just to update the old chart (n = 62) to include all the recent poll responses (n = 120 now). The slope of the trend line hasn't changed appreciably with all the new additions, so we must be capturing a fairly representative sample of Bogleheads. Thanks to everyone who answered the poll question! ht...
by Simplegift
Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 272
Views: 17950

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

I personally would add more bonds but it feels like it would be locking myself into poor returns. Granted stocks could crash way more but perhaps there is greater potential for upside long term. Which is why most of us are there. Yes, it's hard to believe that back on this day in 2007 (June 25), th...
by Simplegift
Wed Jun 24, 2015 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 272
Views: 17950

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

One final observation from the data so far: Not only are Bogleheads in all age groups today being much more aggressive in their stock allocations than Mr. Bogle's standard recommendation of "age in bonds," but older Bogleheads are, relatively speaking, being a bit more aggressive than youn...
by Simplegift
Wed Jun 24, 2015 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 272
Views: 17950

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

In spite of all the great advice here about recency and market timing I notice on this board that peoples percentage in stocks is lots higher than it was back in 2009. Here is data on the percentage of stocks from 2007 & 2011, " % Stocks vs Age" . Not only are Bogleheads' stock alloca...
by Simplegift
Wed Jun 24, 2015 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 272
Views: 17950

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

Wow! I'm the ultra-conservative outlier in that chart, and will still be even when I get to 75/25. Interesting. It's likely that, instead of you being overly conservative, the average Boglehead is being a bit more aggressive in this day and age (and interest rate environment!). Mr. Bogle has famous...
by Simplegift
Wed Jun 24, 2015 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 272
Views: 17950

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

With over 60 responses to date, there's enough data to make a crude regression analysis of Bogleheads' age versus their stock allocations (chart below). Just for fun, by comparing one's own age and stock allocation to the trend line, investors can roughly gauge whether their stock allocation is more...
by Simplegift
Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 272
Views: 17950

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

How old are you, what percent are you in stocks, and why? Both of us are in our late 60s, and we've kept a 50% stock/50% bond allocation ever since we sold a business and retired in our late 50s. We'll likely keep this same allocation to the end. We were first attracted to the 50/50 portfolio, part...
by Simplegift
Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Tax-Managed Small-Cap Fund
Replies: 15
Views: 1470

Re: Vanguard Tax-Managed Small-Cap Fund

Can anybody help analyze this fund and see if this is worthwhile? Having owned this fund almost from its inception in 1999, I have to say that I like it very much. The main reason is the index that it follows, the S&P Small Cap 600 Index, which has a some nice qualities not found in other small...
by Simplegift
Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Other Side, part 2
Replies: 41
Views: 5674

Re: The Other Side, part 2

Are you going to look at SWRs in Japan? I wasn't planning to because I'm quite unfamiliar with how SWRs are calculated. But if you tell me how and give me the relevant information about Japanese programs analogous to Social Security, I'll try to do it. I am curious about the results because Japan h...
by Simplegift
Tue Jun 23, 2015 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 218
Views: 20199

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

Personally, the most unnerving aspect of the 2008 market crash was that, for the first time in my investing experience, "systemic risk" was a large part of the equation — resulting in a level of anxiety and fear that I'd never experienced before as an investor. In finance, systemic risk is...
by Simplegift
Mon Jun 22, 2015 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel, "retirement period increased more than eightfold"
Replies: 12
Views: 2666

Re: Siegel, "retirement period increased more than eightfold"

Am I missing something? Nisi, your rough calculations are certainly in line with most everything I've read about the trends in longevity and retirement ages (chart below). Can't imagine where Mr. Siegel is coming from on this. http://i.imgur.com/BYwXSxw.png Source: Stanford Center on Longevity

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