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Re: Moving Money from Cash Into the Market Now

Thanks, dickenjb. Obviously I left some factors out. I would like about an 80% stock, 20% Stable fund split. I know that sounds high for a retiree, but I get a very good, very reliable pension for the rest of my life with built in COLA. I can recoup another down market. So, at this stage of the game...
by Senin
Mon Feb 10, 2014 3:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving Money from Cash Into the Market Now
Replies: 12
Views: 1440

Moving Money from Cash Into the Market Now

Last year I retired with $ 500,000 in my 457 account. Unfortunately half is in a stock growth mutual fund and half is in a Stable Fund account earning 1%. I am happy with the stock growth account. Not happy with the Stable account. Now that the stock market is near an all time high, how to I move ou...
by Senin
Mon Feb 10, 2014 3:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving Money from Cash Into the Market Now
Replies: 12
Views: 1440

Deferred Comp Allocation

I am retired in my 50's. I have a steady income through my pension. I have a small mortgage, sufficient money in the bank and sufficient other investments. I have $300,000 in a my Deferred Comp Account from my old workplace. I have no intention on touching it in the foreseeable future. I have suffic...
by Senin
Sat Oct 26, 2013 11:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Deferred Comp Allocation
Replies: 3
Views: 316

Re: vanguard total bond versus intermediate bond

Cash! Well, bank account, money market, stable fund, etc. Making a precent or two, is better than losing percents in the bond mutual fund market. "Past performance is not an indication of future results." Bond mutual funds did outstanding in the last few years. However, it is a different t...
by Senin
Fri Jul 26, 2013 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vanguard total bond versus intermediate bond
Replies: 56
Views: 8816

Re: vanguard total bond versus intermediate bond

I dumped my bonds a while ago. All of them. I take responsibility for my own mistake. I never dabbled in bonds before. But they had done so well in recent years, and I kept hearing "you need a 70-30 split" that I ventured into bonds. It was a mistake. I could see the handwriting on the wal...
by Senin
Wed Jul 24, 2013 4:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vanguard total bond versus intermediate bond
Replies: 56
Views: 8816

Re: Perfect Storm

Obviously I hope for an up turn.

Though I salivate about getting in low during a down turn.
by Senin
Sun Jun 23, 2013 5:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perfect Storm
Replies: 17
Views: 2583

Perfect Storm

Wow! Is this latest decline in the market the perfect storm, or what? Here is the deal..... The Fed thinks the economy is so good, that they can ease their manipulation. This spooks investors. No more Fed manipulation! We shall surely perish! They missed the first point---- the economy is so good......
by Senin
Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Perfect Storm
Replies: 17
Views: 2583

Re: How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns?

The interest rate/bond fear is spooking Reits too. I half'ed my holding in Reits weeks ago. I like 'em, but not that much. I still hold shares and I will re-invest after they bottom. The bond situation has to stabilize.
by Senin
Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns?
Replies: 110
Views: 12748

Re: Bond Funds Tanking

Someone mentioned "normal times". Well, I have been investing since the early 80's. In that 30 years there has been quite a bit of "normal time". Then there is the guy with that really nice chart. All I can think of is... "past performance is not guarantee of future results....
by Senin
Sat Jun 15, 2013 4:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds Tanking
Replies: 99
Views: 7935

Re: Bond Funds Tanking

This is just strange times. I will be more than happy to return to bonds once this "bubble" blows over and they return to a normal state of being. This keeping of the bonds artificially low is creating a spring board. Once things settle, Ill be happy to be back to 70/30.
by Senin
Fri Jun 14, 2013 3:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds Tanking
Replies: 99
Views: 7935

Bond Funds Tanking

I used to believe the old 70/30 stock/bond theory. But these are normal times. Bonds are/were kept artificially low. I have been worried about bond funds all year. At the beginning of the year I sold all my Vfiix-GNMA bonds. I went into Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Investor Shares-- ju...
by Senin
Fri Jun 14, 2013 2:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds Tanking
Replies: 99
Views: 7935

Reits in Decline

Reits have taken a dive lately. I am wondering why? Is it because of interest rates rising fears?

Just curious.
by Senin
Sat Jun 08, 2013 3:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reits in Decline
Replies: 7
Views: 2271

Re: San Francisco with kids?

Oh, and if you do have a car, you might want to spend one day just driving through the city. If you avoid the rush hours, traffic is not too bad.
by Senin
Wed Apr 10, 2013 4:01 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: San Francisco with kids?
Replies: 39
Views: 2064

Re: San Francisco with kids?

First of all, don't get sidetracked by Monterey or out of San Fran attractions (unless you happen to be passing them anyway). Yes, definitely hit-- Alcatraz (fun and historic) Golden Gate Park. (You should drive to that one). Spend a whole day there. Visit the museums. Tea Garden. Stow lake. Rent a ...
by Senin
Wed Apr 10, 2013 3:58 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: San Francisco with kids?
Replies: 39
Views: 2064

Re: The Three Fund Portfolio

[Off topic comment removed by admin LadyGeek]
by Senin
Tue Apr 02, 2013 3:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 738
Views: 254566

Re: The Three Fund Portfolio

Normally, I would agree with you-- bonds. But I think we are in for a bond bubble. What I do think we need to do is to keep some cash in reserve somewhere save-- even if its a money market or bank making next to nothing. Those market crashes-- got bless 'em. They are there for us. That is the time t...
by Senin
Mon Apr 01, 2013 5:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 738
Views: 254566

Re: Wellesley Vs. Target Retirement Income

I like Wellesley, and it is my (almost) only actively managed fund.

I like its philosophy and the fact that it has a good captain and crew managing the fund.
by Senin
Mon Apr 01, 2013 5:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley Vs. Target Retirement Income
Replies: 46
Views: 5123

Re: 24 Years Old - Am I Not Disciplined Enough?

You have done an excellent job of setting up your long range future and retirement.

However, don't tie too much into the long range future and retirement.

You will need cash for a house in the short range/mid range future.
by Senin
Thu Mar 28, 2013 5:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 24 Years Old - Am I Not Disciplined Enough?
Replies: 17
Views: 2026

Re: 24 Years Old - Am I Not Disciplined Enough?

You did all this by 24?!!! You are awesome. How many 24 year olds in America have set themselves up as well as you? Maybe 2%? You are doing outstanding! A couple of concerns I would have.... Are you going to need cash in the near future? Wife? House? Baby? It's great(!) that you have set up your ret...
by Senin
Wed Mar 27, 2013 3:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 24 Years Old - Am I Not Disciplined Enough?
Replies: 17
Views: 2026

Re: VWITX or BND in taxable account?

I own Vwitx. However I would be cautious about bonds at this time. The problem is, there really is no safe investment currently that give a return worth a damn.

Perhaps put a thin slice in the Vanguard Total Market.
by Senin
Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VWITX or BND in taxable account?
Replies: 5
Views: 605

Re: The Three Fund Portfolio

Actually I was only half kidding. In my main portfolio, I invest monthly 50% Vanguard Total 25% Vangauard REIT - Vgsix 25% Vanguard Int Tax Exempt- Vwitx And, funny enough, its Vwitx that scares me the most. I know we are in a good bull run for the time being. Vgsix has been a star. I just wish I ha...
by Senin
Tue Mar 26, 2013 2:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 738
Views: 254566

Re: The Three Fund Portfolio

I guess my Three Fund Portfolio has become a One (and a half) Fund Portfolio. One, of course the Total Stock Market. I have never like the international market more than the USA, so why invest in it? Sure, there are higher returns, higher risks. But why? I like the stability of the USA. And in time ...
by Senin
Mon Mar 25, 2013 3:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 738
Views: 254566

Re: Where to put Profits? Don't trust Bond Funds

I don't think you can be so rigid with your AA that you don't see the bigger picture. Now and then, different sections of the market do "blow up." There were those who thought Dot Coms would only go up, then 2000 hit. There were those who only thought the housing market would go up, then 2...
by Senin
Fri Mar 15, 2013 4:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put Profits? Don't trust Bond Funds
Replies: 37
Views: 3119

Where to put Profits? Don't trust Bond Funds

Since the end of last year I have been growing more and more concerned about my bond funds. I have steadily been reducing my bond fund holdings and more into stock funds. Of course at this point I am pleased. I think I went from a 70-30 split to about 90-10 (stock-bond) currently. I just feel that b...
by Senin
Thu Mar 14, 2013 4:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put Profits? Don't trust Bond Funds
Replies: 37
Views: 3119

Re: Should I invest in a stable value fund?

Stable Value Funds are awesome. I just wished they weren't restricted to 401ks. I would definitely add them to my non tax portfolio.
by Senin
Wed Mar 13, 2013 5:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I invest in a stable value fund?
Replies: 40
Views: 2020

Re: Cost Basis Problem

I wonder if I can just take the totals at the time the funds were transfered over. Divide the total cost paid for shares (plus fees and dividends) by the total number of shares. Would that give me the cost basis? Or am I missing something there? It doesnt seem to work out (not consistent with the pr...
by Senin
Thu Mar 07, 2013 7:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cost Basis Problem
Replies: 5
Views: 554

Cost Basis Problem

I started in 2006 investing in a couple of mutual funds in a mutual fund family (say Vanguard). I was diligent, 1000 a month.This kept up for a couple of years. Then my wife and I did our Trust in Nov 2010. We moved the assets in the mutual funds into a Bank Investing umbrella (say Bank of America) ...
by Senin
Thu Mar 07, 2013 5:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cost Basis Problem
Replies: 5
Views: 554

Re: Moving GNMAs to Total Bond or even Tax Exempt Munis?

And how did GNMAs do last year? At some point, things turn.
by Senin
Fri Feb 15, 2013 6:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving GNMAs to Total Bond or even Tax Exempt Munis?
Replies: 25
Views: 2690

Re: When is a bank CD safer than a bond fund?

[Personal attack removed by admin LadyGeek] Anything held artificially tends to explode. Look at the Dot Com-- artificially high. Look at the Zero Prime Housing Market-- artificially high. Now look at the Bond Market--- held artifically low. At some point, the value of bonds will crash. IT Tax Exem...
by Senin
Fri Feb 15, 2013 6:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When is a bank CD safer than a bond fund?
Replies: 50
Views: 3981

Re: When is a bank CD safer than a bond fund?

I too am worried. Are we in for a Bond Bubble. They have done remarkably well for the past few years. Too well. Of course the fed has kept them artificially low. That is not natural. At some point, they will explode. Is that safe? I don't think so. Right now I am very cautious of bonds. I sold all o...
by Senin
Sat Feb 02, 2013 3:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When is a bank CD safer than a bond fund?
Replies: 50
Views: 3981

Re: Moving GNMAs to Total Bond or even Tax Exempt Munis?

The VFIIX is not looking too good right now.

As of last November I transfered a number of shares into VWITX.

Anybody know what is going on with GNMA's?
by Senin
Sat Jan 19, 2013 4:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving GNMAs to Total Bond or even Tax Exempt Munis?
Replies: 25
Views: 2690

Re: Moving GNMAs to Total Bond or even Tax Exempt Munis?

Here are a couple of other concerns I have about GNMAs besides the recent poor performance. 1- I always liked how GNMAs seemed to be contrary to the stock market. If the maket headed south, GNMAs tended to go north. So if my stock funds lowered, I had cash in Ginnies to buy stock at a lower price. R...
by Senin
Mon Nov 19, 2012 3:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving GNMAs to Total Bond or even Tax Exempt Munis?
Replies: 25
Views: 2690

Moving GNMAs to Total Bond or even Tax Exempt Munis?

GNMA's (VFIIX) are not having their best year. It could be that their steam is starting to run out. Of course, the natural inclination is to move to the Total Bond Market (VBMFX). But wait one minute, what about Tax Exempt Muni Bonds? They are having a good year. And, they are tax exempt. Right now ...
by Senin
Mon Nov 19, 2012 4:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving GNMAs to Total Bond or even Tax Exempt Munis?
Replies: 25
Views: 2690

Re: AA Theory for 52 Y.O. soon Retiree

Thanks for your opinions. Is it the Wellesley that people are concerned with? I thought it was a good solid mixture of Bonds and Stocks. Do you think a small cap index would be better? I just think the USA is a stronger more-stable economy than the rest of the world. I look at the problems in Europe...
by Senin
Sat Nov 17, 2012 2:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA Theory for 52 Y.O. soon Retiree
Replies: 16
Views: 1575

AA Theory for 52 Y.O. soon Retiree

What do you think of this Asset Allocation 50% Total Stock Market Index 15% Reit 15% Wellesley 20% Total Bond Market For a 52 year old with a pretty good government pension (earning $100k a year in retirement with 2% Cola a year) retiring next year. I know it is a bit off the usual Bogle norm,but he...
by Senin
Sat Nov 17, 2012 6:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA Theory for 52 Y.O. soon Retiree
Replies: 16
Views: 1575

Re: Wellesley Fund as a core Retirement Fund

Wellesley is great. I own it too. I like it. Many people have loved it over the past ten years because it chugs along when others have spiraled out. Do not make it a core holding at this stage of the game. I think we are almost over our 10 year Bear. What does that mean? A 20 year Bull? What will We...
by Senin
Mon Jun 18, 2012 2:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wellesley Fund as a core Retirement Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 3987

Re: Sideways Market

My GNMA is looking pretty good right now.
by Senin
Sat May 19, 2012 4:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sideways Market
Replies: 51
Views: 3673

Re: Sideways Market

Here are my thoughts on the GNMA. GNMA is not a soaring stock market superstar. It is not going to make somebody rich overnight. It is slow and consistent, just like the Total Bond Market. But what impressed me most was that in the 2008-2009 nightmare, when everything else was going to crap, GNMA ke...
by Senin
Thu May 17, 2012 4:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sideways Market
Replies: 51
Views: 3673

Vanguard Total/Bond Stategy

I have 80% VTSMX, 20% V Total Bonds. Every month I put $1000 into the VTSMX and $500 into the Bonds. (Obviously I will have to realocate at times.) But here is my theory. They are opposites. One goes up, the other goes down. One is erratic, the other is steady. In addition to the standard monthly de...
by Senin
Mon May 14, 2012 5:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total/Bond Stategy
Replies: 5
Views: 807

Re: Sideways Market

Great! Those eight Vanguard bond funds that beat GNMA, how did they do during the crashes of the last decade? Could you compare them during that time frame to the GNMAs? Or, would you prefer not to?
by Senin
Mon May 14, 2012 5:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sideways Market
Replies: 51
Views: 3673

Re: Sideways Market

Ok, to repeat again. The VFIIX has been a good solid provider in all markets. When the market tanked a couple of times in the last ten years, GNMA kept right on chugging along. No, not the highest yields, but very very consistent. That is why I like it over the Total Bonds. As far as past history is...
by Senin
Sat May 12, 2012 2:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sideways Market
Replies: 51
Views: 3673

Re: The Three Fund Portfolio

Domestic works just fine for me. I believe in the USA.
by Senin
Sat May 12, 2012 4:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 738
Views: 254566

Re: Sideways Market

Here is the problem with a sideways market. You go up a bunch of points, you down a bunch of points, you go up a bunch of points, you go down a bunch of points. So, after a decade you end up exactly where you started. It is called the Lost Decade. And, here we go again. Come on, there must be some w...
by Senin
Sat May 12, 2012 4:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sideways Market
Replies: 51
Views: 3673

Sideways Market

The ongoing sideways market has me a bit stumped. I could deal with an up or a down. Up- hold on tight and keep on riding. Down- wait for the darkest time and buy, buy, buy. Either way you can make a nifty profit. What the heck do you do with this ongoing sideways market? Sure I have GNMAs that will...
by Senin
Sat May 12, 2012 4:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sideways Market
Replies: 51
Views: 3673

Re: The Three Fund Portfolio

I look at the US, then I look at the globe. Would I rather invest in the US or some other country? I really don't understand the push for INtl Stocks. Sure, sometimes they pay off, but I look at them like a wild sector. High risk. I love the stability of the US over the instability of some foreign c...
by Senin
Sat May 12, 2012 3:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three Fund Portfolio
Replies: 738
Views: 254566

Re: vanguard total bond versus intermediate bond

If we are going to focus on that negative time frame, how did VFIIX (Gnma's) do?
by Senin
Mon May 07, 2012 6:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vanguard total bond versus intermediate bond
Replies: 56
Views: 8816

Re: Vanguard GNMA?

Eureka,
Absolutely perfect post!

As another poster stated:
GNMAs have been an anomaly.

They seem to do amazing in all weather. I remember when the refi boom hit. They were suppose to tank. They didn't.

They keep plugging along. 6%. 7%.

I will take it.
by Senin
Sat Apr 28, 2012 5:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard GNMA?
Replies: 30
Views: 4622

Re: High Fliers, covering the bulls and Wellesley

Frankly, based on the evidence of time, I am glad I had Wesseley. I am glad that I also had GNMA. Last summer was a tough one. But now we are at all time highs. It is time for the high fliers.
by Senin
Thu Apr 26, 2012 4:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Fliers, covering the bulls and Wellesley
Replies: 11
Views: 2900

Re: Simplifying Portfolio from Scattered to a Few Stars

I am open to advice.

However, it seems that many of you guys are locked into a model. Many are locked into the Total Stock, Total Bond, (perhaps Intl) and that is it. That is limiting. Do you just want to be part of some formula?

I am thinking outside of the Formula.
by Senin
Thu Apr 26, 2012 4:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Simplifying Portfolio from Scattered to a Few Stars
Replies: 23
Views: 2754

GNMA- How to know when to get out

GNMA has had a great run. Year after year of consistent income regardless of how bad the market has been. When rates fell and people thought that all the refi's would hurt GNMA's, it didn't. GNMA still has solid performances. So my question is, what indicators are there to tell us to get the hell ou...
by Senin
Wed Apr 25, 2012 3:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: GNMA- How to know when to get out
Replies: 11
Views: 1528
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