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Someone mentioned "normal times". Well, I have been investing since the early 80's. In that 30 years there has been quite a bit of "normal time". Then there is the guy with that really nice chart. All I can think of is... "past performance is not guarantee of future results....

This is just strange times. I will be more than happy to return to bonds once this "bubble" blows over and they return to a normal state of being. This keeping of the bonds artificially low is creating a spring board. Once things settle, Ill be happy to be back to 70/30.

I used to believe the old 70/30 stock/bond theory. But these are normal times. Bonds are/were kept artificially low. I have been worried about bond funds all year. At the beginning of the year I sold all my Vfiix-GNMA bonds. I went into Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Investor Shares-- ju...

Reits have taken a dive lately. I am wondering why? Is it because of interest rates rising fears?

Just curious.

Oh, and if you do have a car, you might want to spend one day just driving through the city. If you avoid the rush hours, traffic is not too bad.

First of all, don't get sidetracked by Monterey or out of San Fran attractions (unless you happen to be passing them anyway). Yes, definitely hit-- Alcatraz (fun and historic) Golden Gate Park. (You should drive to that one). Spend a whole day there. Visit the museums. Tea Garden. Stow lake. Rent a ...

Normally, I would agree with you-- bonds. But I think we are in for a bond bubble. What I do think we need to do is to keep some cash in reserve somewhere save-- even if its a money market or bank making next to nothing. Those market crashes-- got bless 'em. They are there for us. That is the time t...

I like Wellesley, and it is my (almost) only actively managed fund.

I like its philosophy and the fact that it has a good captain and crew managing the fund.

You have done an excellent job of setting up your long range future and retirement.

However, don't tie too much into the long range future and retirement.

You will need cash for a house in the short range/mid range future.

You did all this by 24?!!! You are awesome. How many 24 year olds in America have set themselves up as well as you? Maybe 2%? You are doing outstanding! A couple of concerns I would have.... Are you going to need cash in the near future? Wife? House? Baby? It's great(!) that you have set up your ret...

I own Vwitx. However I would be cautious about bonds at this time. The problem is, there really is no safe investment currently that give a return worth a damn.

Perhaps put a thin slice in the Vanguard Total Market.

Actually I was only half kidding. In my main portfolio, I invest monthly 50% Vanguard Total 25% Vangauard REIT - Vgsix 25% Vanguard Int Tax Exempt- Vwitx And, funny enough, its Vwitx that scares me the most. I know we are in a good bull run for the time being. Vgsix has been a star. I just wish I ha...

I guess my Three Fund Portfolio has become a One (and a half) Fund Portfolio. One, of course the Total Stock Market. I have never like the international market more than the USA, so why invest in it? Sure, there are higher returns, higher risks. But why? I like the stability of the USA. And in time ...

I don't think you can be so rigid with your AA that you don't see the bigger picture. Now and then, different sections of the market do "blow up." There were those who thought Dot Coms would only go up, then 2000 hit. There were those who only thought the housing market would go up, then 2...

Since the end of last year I have been growing more and more concerned about my bond funds. I have steadily been reducing my bond fund holdings and more into stock funds. Of course at this point I am pleased. I think I went from a 70-30 split to about 90-10 (stock-bond) currently. I just feel that b...

Stable Value Funds are awesome. I just wished they weren't restricted to 401ks. I would definitely add them to my non tax portfolio.

I wonder if I can just take the totals at the time the funds were transfered over. Divide the total cost paid for shares (plus fees and dividends) by the total number of shares. Would that give me the cost basis? Or am I missing something there? It doesnt seem to work out (not consistent with the pr...

I started in 2006 investing in a couple of mutual funds in a mutual fund family (say Vanguard). I was diligent, 1000 a month.This kept up for a couple of years. Then my wife and I did our Trust in Nov 2010. We moved the assets in the mutual funds into a Bank Investing umbrella (say Bank of America) ...

And how did GNMAs do last year? At some point, things turn.

[Personal attack removed by admin LadyGeek] Anything held artificially tends to explode. Look at the Dot Com-- artificially high. Look at the Zero Prime Housing Market-- artificially high. Now look at the Bond Market--- held artifically low. At some point, the value of bonds will crash. IT Tax Exem...

I too am worried. Are we in for a Bond Bubble. They have done remarkably well for the past few years. Too well. Of course the fed has kept them artificially low. That is not natural. At some point, they will explode. Is that safe? I don't think so. Right now I am very cautious of bonds. I sold all o...

The VFIIX is not looking too good right now.

As of last November I transfered a number of shares into VWITX.

Anybody know what is going on with GNMA's?

Here are a couple of other concerns I have about GNMAs besides the recent poor performance. 1- I always liked how GNMAs seemed to be contrary to the stock market. If the maket headed south, GNMAs tended to go north. So if my stock funds lowered, I had cash in Ginnies to buy stock at a lower price. R...

GNMA's (VFIIX) are not having their best year. It could be that their steam is starting to run out. Of course, the natural inclination is to move to the Total Bond Market (VBMFX). But wait one minute, what about Tax Exempt Muni Bonds? They are having a good year. And, they are tax exempt. Right now ...

Thanks for your opinions. Is it the Wellesley that people are concerned with? I thought it was a good solid mixture of Bonds and Stocks. Do you think a small cap index would be better? I just think the USA is a stronger more-stable economy than the rest of the world. I look at the problems in Europe...

What do you think of this Asset Allocation 50% Total Stock Market Index 15% Reit 15% Wellesley 20% Total Bond Market For a 52 year old with a pretty good government pension (earning $100k a year in retirement with 2% Cola a year) retiring next year. I know it is a bit off the usual Bogle norm,but he...

Wellesley is great. I own it too. I like it. Many people have loved it over the past ten years because it chugs along when others have spiraled out. Do not make it a core holding at this stage of the game. I think we are almost over our 10 year Bear. What does that mean? A 20 year Bull? What will We...

My GNMA is looking pretty good right now.

Here are my thoughts on the GNMA. GNMA is not a soaring stock market superstar. It is not going to make somebody rich overnight. It is slow and consistent, just like the Total Bond Market. But what impressed me most was that in the 2008-2009 nightmare, when everything else was going to crap, GNMA ke...

I have 80% VTSMX, 20% V Total Bonds. Every month I put $1000 into the VTSMX and $500 into the Bonds. (Obviously I will have to realocate at times.) But here is my theory. They are opposites. One goes up, the other goes down. One is erratic, the other is steady. In addition to the standard monthly de...

Great! Those eight Vanguard bond funds that beat GNMA, how did they do during the crashes of the last decade? Could you compare them during that time frame to the GNMAs? Or, would you prefer not to?

Ok, to repeat again. The VFIIX has been a good solid provider in all markets. When the market tanked a couple of times in the last ten years, GNMA kept right on chugging along. No, not the highest yields, but very very consistent. That is why I like it over the Total Bonds. As far as past history is...

Domestic works just fine for me. I believe in the USA.

Here is the problem with a sideways market. You go up a bunch of points, you down a bunch of points, you go up a bunch of points, you go down a bunch of points. So, after a decade you end up exactly where you started. It is called the Lost Decade. And, here we go again. Come on, there must be some w...

The ongoing sideways market has me a bit stumped. I could deal with an up or a down. Up- hold on tight and keep on riding. Down- wait for the darkest time and buy, buy, buy. Either way you can make a nifty profit. What the heck do you do with this ongoing sideways market? Sure I have GNMAs that will...

I look at the US, then I look at the globe. Would I rather invest in the US or some other country? I really don't understand the push for INtl Stocks. Sure, sometimes they pay off, but I look at them like a wild sector. High risk. I love the stability of the US over the instability of some foreign c...

If we are going to focus on that negative time frame, how did VFIIX (Gnma's) do?

Eureka,
Absolutely perfect post!

As another poster stated:
GNMAs have been an anomaly.

They seem to do amazing in all weather. I remember when the refi boom hit. They were suppose to tank. They didn't.

They keep plugging along. 6%. 7%.

I will take it.

Frankly, based on the evidence of time, I am glad I had Wesseley. I am glad that I also had GNMA. Last summer was a tough one. But now we are at all time highs. It is time for the high fliers.

I am open to advice.

However, it seems that many of you guys are locked into a model. Many are locked into the Total Stock, Total Bond, (perhaps Intl) and that is it. That is limiting. Do you just want to be part of some formula?

I am thinking outside of the Formula.

GNMA has had a great run. Year after year of consistent income regardless of how bad the market has been. When rates fell and people thought that all the refi's would hurt GNMA's, it didn't. GNMA still has solid performances. So my question is, what indicators are there to tell us to get the hell ou...

The Total Stock Market had 2 negative years in the last decade.

I have heard all of the negative things about the GNMA but regardless, they always seem to bring in the money every years (meaning they have a positive year).

Vanguard Total Intl Stock Index Inv can have some disasterous years.

2002- Down 15%
2008- Down 44%
2011- Down 14%

I am not sure if I really want this fund.

Then the proxy tanked!

nisiprius, your chart made my point exactly. When the stock market tanked, and the Target Retirement 2020 did too, the GNMA kept chugging along. The point is that you hope the market does well, hence the Total Stock Market, but if it does take a nose dive, at least your preserve something with GNMA....

Generally I like him.

I too got a bit burned by his QQQ call. Which, if he owned up, wouldn't be that bad. But he doesn't. He doesn't mention it. He does not even factor it into his total return. Ah come on. You have to list it, if you called it.

Disingenuous.

I have heard about a lot of portfolios-- the Lazy Portfolio, the Three Fund Portfolio, etc. How about the Two Fund Portfolio? It consists of the Vanguard Total Stock Market (70%) and the Vanguard GNMA (30%). (Percentages can be adjustable). In up stock market years the Total will soar and the GNMA w...

The thing I like about GNMAs is that they never (almost) have a down year. They usually roll up around 6 or 7 percent. But even in those nasty years we had in the last decade, when the market was crashing, GNMAs still performed on the upside. So, when the market is crashing, you know that your GNMAs...

I like the Two Fund Portfolio---

Total Stock Market
and
Vanguard GNMA