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Re: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?

Jack, Bravo! Your post pulls together disparate points I'd seen made in boooks like Financial Shenanigans and elsewhere. The issue of how stock options, buy backs, and EPS manipulation reward executives at the expense of shareholders is one I have become much more concerned about, too. Especially si...
by Scooter57
Sat Mar 01, 2014 11:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?
Replies: 73
Views: 4757

Re: huge discrepency in retirement spending models

My parents spent more money in their last decade than they had ever spent before due to both needing full time care. Both were extremely healthy all their lives so their bodies were robust. But in their 80s for one and 90s for the other their judgement, memory, and in one case eye sight failed. Ten ...
by Scooter57
Fri Feb 28, 2014 3:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: huge discrepency in retirement spending models
Replies: 10
Views: 947

Re: Morningstar and the Scam of Forward-Looking Earnings

Many US companies do issue estimates of their next year and next quarter earnings. Some issue updates when conditions change. Analyst estimates use those numbers and others they seem to pull out of thin air. Typically they start out too optimistic and drop as the earnings report date approaches. How...
by Scooter57
Fri Feb 28, 2014 3:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar and the Scam of Forward-Looking Earnings
Replies: 11
Views: 1069

Re: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?

Steadyeddy,

When Vanguard funds own that stock, they just vote the board recommendations. And for many larger stocks almost all the shares are owned by funds that do the same. You are dreaming if you think mutual fund holders have any way to counteract stupid or venal management decisions.
by Scooter57
Thu Feb 27, 2014 7:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?
Replies: 73
Views: 4757

Re: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?

If Joe sells his bakery, then the buyer will have to buy my share. But Joe might just do what most bakeries do, which is close with no prior warning, give up the lease and sell off the equipment for a lot less than they paid for it. (This has happened to every local bakery I have fallen in love with...
by Scooter57
Thu Feb 27, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?
Replies: 73
Views: 4757

Re: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?

The house analogy falls apart, because the value of a house is that someone can live in it. If they can't, for example, if it turns out to be built on a toxic waste dump or because the nuclear plant 9 miles away just melted down, it's value disappears. The utility of the house is what gives it it's ...
by Scooter57
Thu Feb 27, 2014 3:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?
Replies: 73
Views: 4757

Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?

Perhaps this is a really dumb question, but the more I study investing, the more I am starting to wonder about the underlying assumptions about what gives value to a share of stock. In theory, we are buying a share of a company when we buy the stock. Now if I buy a share of Joe's Bakery down the roa...
by Scooter57
Thu Feb 27, 2014 2:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks that Don't Pay Dividends - Greater Fool Driven?
Replies: 73
Views: 4757

Re: Be careful with Turbotax [Importing data from Vanguard]

I did the download from Vanguard and VBS and checked every entry against my paper statements. No duplications. The only issues were some bonds I had sold where VG did not report the basis or acquisition date. I had to hunt around to find out where to put that data in, then I had to manually change t...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Be careful with Turbotax [Importing data from Vanguard]
Replies: 20
Views: 2732

Re: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein

Calm man, Twenty 1099-divs work out to $5 million worth of CDs for a single person with no family with which to do POD accounts. With a joint account you could cover $10 million. This is way more than most of us will ever be putting into fixed income. You could put together a reasonable CD ladder to...
by Scooter57
Tue Feb 25, 2014 4:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein
Replies: 55
Views: 5414

Re: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein

PJW, I am well aware of everything you explained, but it doesn't address the question of why anyone should invest in a bond fund when they can get better yield with less risk in CDs. Right now the yield on 3, 4, and 5 yr CDs even with full penalties for early withdrawal can be much better than any s...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 23, 2014 9:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein
Replies: 55
Views: 5414

Re: Has anyone seen the Japanese Stock Market?

My understanding is that the Japanese people who would correspond to the investing class in the US, people who retired during the 25+ years after the Japanese collapse, had much, much better pensions than Americans retiring now will see due to the paternalistic way their corporations behaved. That m...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 23, 2014 9:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone seen the Japanese Stock Market?
Replies: 73
Views: 6857

Re: Value averaging

I don't value average my fixed income with a path, just my equity investment. I use two paths, one for US equity and one for International. The end of the path for international is a value that would make it 25% of my total equity investment, with US equity set so that it would be 75% of that alloca...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 23, 2014 8:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Value averaging
Replies: 5
Views: 434

Re: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein

Biffer, I haven't read that book, though I have seen the Lazy Portfolio derived from it which is the 3 fund portfolio. Glad to hear that it does discuss CDs. For decades I have wondered if something was wrong with me because I have always invested in them and they have always helped me sleep very we...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 23, 2014 6:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein
Replies: 55
Views: 5414

Re: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein

Dr. B, When we can buy 3-5 year credit union CDs paying over 2% that can be broken with penalties of only 6 months interest why on earth should we bother with short term bond funds paying .75% or limited term tax exempt funds paying .71%? This simply makes no sense to me. It seems to me that the tim...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 23, 2014 5:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Question for Dr. Bernstein
Replies: 55
Views: 5414

Re: Vanguard brokerage tax forms are now out

So is it safe to do our taxes now based on the brokerage statements or can we expect more problems to show up?
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 23, 2014 5:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard brokerage tax forms are now out
Replies: 24
Views: 2283

Re: Am I buying "high" on index investing?

I agree that the public tone on these forums is exemplary! Re the Three Fund portfolio, it's important to be aware, if a person does go that way, that they are investing heavily in the largest, most fully mature companies in the two stock indexes. This might be exactly what they want to do, but if t...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 23, 2014 5:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I buying "high" on index investing?
Replies: 27
Views: 3798

Re: Am I buying "high" on index investing?

Phineas, You are very quick to take my post personally. You are not alone, as I received hate mail via PM, too, in response to my post. Perhaps you and the other haters are assuming that only some of the anonymous posters giving advice on this board are official Bogleheads--yourself, for example) an...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 23, 2014 12:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I buying "high" on index investing?
Replies: 27
Views: 3798

Re: Small Investors Jump Back Into the Trading Game

The rise in margin debt suggests a lot of these traders are shorting stocks and SPY.

That's probably good news for people fearing the market is about to tank.
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Investors Jump Back Into the Trading Game
Replies: 30
Views: 1944

Re: Am I buying "high" on index investing?

The "what if everyone indexed" question occured to me when I started to study investing last winter not because of reading some Finance journalist porn--which I wasn't reading, but because I have an active analytic mind that likes to think through all dogmas presented as final truth. I poi...
by Scooter57
Sat Feb 22, 2014 9:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I buying "high" on index investing?
Replies: 27
Views: 3798

Re: Am I buying "high" on index investing?

Take your time and study before you invest your once-in-a-lifetime inheritance. Don't take advice from people who have never been in your shoes, and who themselves only invest small sums from their paychecks every month, when they tell you to invest all of yours all at once. They are giving advice b...
by Scooter57
Thu Feb 20, 2014 11:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I buying "high" on index investing?
Replies: 27
Views: 3798

Re: Value: Dividend yield beats P/E and P/B considering risk

The article makes the point that dividend strategies have historically been NO WORSE than nondividend strategies, with the advantage of less volatility and more predictability of income. He also, correctly, points out that the recent search for yield has pushed up the prices of dividend stocks, so t...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value: Dividend yield beats P/E and P/B considering risk
Replies: 26
Views: 2507

Re: When tax-efficient taxable investing isn't?

Just remind yourself that the taxes on this money you didn't lift a finger to earn are far lower than what workers pay on the dollars they slave for--and even less than what the selfemployed pay on their labor.
by Scooter57
Tue Feb 18, 2014 11:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When tax-efficient taxable investing isn't?
Replies: 51
Views: 4024

Re: Great Finance History Book

Bill, Thanks so much for the recomendation! This book is quite the page turner. I picked it up this morning to take a brief look at it and have done nothing but read it all day. It's very long, but very reminiscent of the wonderful, well written glitz/saga novels that were so popular in the 80s. I'm...
by Scooter57
Tue Feb 18, 2014 12:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great Finance History Book
Replies: 33
Views: 4277

Re: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps for international too?

And yes, if you don't want to study and learn, a simple index strategy makes sense. I think many on this forum would take exception to this comment. Many of us have spent hundreds if not thousands of hours studying and learning, and many if not most have concluded that a "simple index strategy...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 12, 2014 6:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps for international too?
Replies: 30
Views: 2880

Re: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps for international too?

Valuation on fundamentals is entirely different from technical analysis. And yes, if you don't want to study and learn, a simple index strategy makes sense. But if you are going to "slice and dice" as many Bogleheads do, you owe it to yourself to learn some of these basic concepts and to u...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 12, 2014 9:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps for international too?
Replies: 30
Views: 2880

Re: Expected Returns for the next 20 years?

Why would you believe anyone's estimate of 20 year returns after seeing the brilliant job the estimators did in 1994 predicting the returns until now? You can predict the yield of intermediate bond funds pretty well out to about 10 years and long bond funds out to 20 years, but not stocks, economic ...
by Scooter57
Mon Feb 10, 2014 5:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Returns for the next 20 years?
Replies: 29
Views: 3002

Re: Hedge funds and private equity in a Boglehead portfolio

Some hedge funds and private equity firms buy companies that aren't public or take public companies private, restructure them, and then take them public again so investing in those could be quite different from investing in the stocks of companies already public. But the problem is that you Mr. Litt...
by Scooter57
Mon Feb 10, 2014 10:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge funds and private equity in a Boglehead portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 973

Re: When did/do you want stocks to start rising?

The last 15 years in the US taught younger investors what might be a very dangerous lesson, because we had these steep drops that recovered so quickly. Hence your wanting the market to drop. But as some cynic somewhere remarked, "Mr. Market always does what hurts the most people," so now t...
by Scooter57
Mon Feb 10, 2014 10:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did/do you want stocks to start rising?
Replies: 58
Views: 3450

Re: Riding the yield curve, in action

VFIUX has only "returned 1.82% in 7.5 months" if you bought it in July when it hit a price low. If you had bought it instead, 2 months earlier, on April 30,l according to Morningstar you are still down 2.3% and that is total return, including dividends. And the only reason that the fund is...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 09, 2014 5:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riding the yield curve, in action
Replies: 40
Views: 3929

Re: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps for international too?

nedsaid, Thanks for your long and thoughtful reply. Your statements about valuation as a predictor pretty much agree with what I am thinking, though I think that defining valuation strictly in terms of PE is a mistake. I think you really do have to dig in and look at what a company is selling, it's ...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 09, 2014 1:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps for international too?
Replies: 30
Views: 2880

Re: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps for international too?

It is a matter of religious faith, here, based on research conducted 20-30 years ago, that everything known is priced into current prices. But I am not convinced that is true for several reasons. And since I made much of the money I've made on my own by distrusting religiously-held theories based on...
by Scooter57
Sun Feb 09, 2014 11:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps for international too?
Replies: 30
Views: 2880

Re: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps for international too?

When I have looked at several other funds lately that are labeled "value" I have seen quite a few overvalued stocks, if you define overvalued with a combination of future growth expectations, current earnings, and historical PE for that same stock. I'm not sure how often these indexes are ...
by Scooter57
Sat Feb 08, 2014 8:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps for international too?
Replies: 30
Views: 2880

Re: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps for international too?

The better improvement of the mid caps has a lot to do with the fact that their PEs have grown much faster than those of the large caps. According to the Vanguard web site, the Vanguard Mid Cap index's average PE is 24.7 with an average earnings growth rate of 11.9%. The Vanguard Large Cap index has...
by Scooter57
Fri Feb 07, 2014 7:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps for international too?
Replies: 30
Views: 2880

Re: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps for international too?

The unloved US mid caps are now severely overloved, i.e. overvalued, compared to large caps. So while they were wonderful investments a few years ago they are not in the aggregate now. Without knowing how intl mid caps are currently valued there is no way to know how they are likely to fare. Focussi...
by Scooter57
Fri Feb 07, 2014 5:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps for international too?
Replies: 30
Views: 2880

Re: Frequent Fund SWITCHING

You would have to do this in an IRA. Otherwise the capital gains taxes would eat up most or all of your gains.
by Scooter57
Fri Feb 07, 2014 5:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Frequent Fund Switching
Replies: 26
Views: 2027

Re: How often do you find errors in statements?

This fall, one of my credit unions redeemed a CD a month before its maturity date. They fixed it as soon as I notified them and credited me with the full amount of interest. VBS changed the class of a fund I owned from D to I at my request, after which the cost basis of the fund was completely screw...
by Scooter57
Fri Feb 07, 2014 12:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How often do you find errors in statements?
Replies: 31
Views: 2256

Re: Emerging Markets: Boom, Bust, Repeat, Yawn

Nisi, Aren't you forgetting the canal companies if the 1820s, the railways of the 1840s, and the textile mills at Lowell, also 1820s? These were large enterprises requiring capital, some of which may have come from Europe's commercial establishment. The US panic of 1837 impacted British merchants, t...
by Scooter57
Thu Feb 06, 2014 11:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets: Boom, Bust, Repeat, Yawn
Replies: 58
Views: 7153

Re: Emerging Markets: Boom, Bust, Repeat, Yawn

The whole concept of Emerging markets" seems very artificial to me. The US was an emerging market in the 1820s. So was Bolivia and Venezuela. How did you do dividing up your investment over all three vs. US alone? Lumping China and Russia together with their huge cultural differences and mixing...
by Scooter57
Thu Feb 06, 2014 7:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets: Boom, Bust, Repeat, Yawn
Replies: 58
Views: 7153

Re: Do you roll your own investing "Dashboard?"

That realtor.com scraper is cool. Thanks. Unfortunately, though, there are too few sales in our town and county for them to provide estimates. The Zillow ones are silly as their design assumes you are living in a development style neighborhood where the houses are very similar, but we live in a rura...
by Scooter57
Thu Feb 06, 2014 4:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you roll your own investing "Dashboard?"
Replies: 14
Views: 1724

Re: Do you roll your own investing "Dashboard?"

Yes. I maintain three. All use OpenOffice and two get real time data using the addon GetQuote which pulls data from Yahoo Finance: 1. The main spreadsheet is a Total Assets Spreadsheet which splits my assets into Taxable and IRA. It tracks my stocks, funds, CDs, Bank Money Market Funds and checking ...
by Scooter57
Thu Feb 06, 2014 2:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you roll your own investing "Dashboard?"
Replies: 14
Views: 1724

Re: I sold all of my bonds...did I make a mistake?

You would have been right if the OP had kept his fixed income allocation by moving from bonds to CDs. That's not what the OP did. He/she moved from bonds to equities (not really clear why, other than performance chasing or not knowing). One highly possible reason is because he has been brainwashed ...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 05, 2014 8:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I sold all of my bonds...did I make a mistake?
Replies: 24
Views: 3527

Re: I sold all of my bonds...did I make a mistake?

I sold all my bonds last year and put the money into 2% to 3% CDs. I'm very happy. Some of the bonds and funds I sold were very longterm and have lost quite a bit since I sold them. Some muni funds held Puerto Rican bonds that have just been downgraded to junk and dropped a lot. I sleep well knowing...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 05, 2014 3:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I sold all of my bonds...did I make a mistake?
Replies: 24
Views: 3527

Re: Consultants: How much emergency fund?

Money market funds. There are different kinds of consulting, some far riskier than others. If you are contracting via brokers with an in demand skillset you need less than if you are doing truly independent projects for clients you have to find and sell to on your own. A year of expenses in the bank...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 05, 2014 2:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consultants: How much emergency fund?
Replies: 6
Views: 1422

Re: Another Tax Loss Harvesting Question

Thanks! I'm new to this whole tax loss harvesting concept as I've always bought and held. But because most of my funds are in taxable and throw off those unexpected gains I am paying more attention. Several of my December buys are underwater right now, but as they are likely to go back up, I'll just...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 05, 2014 2:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another Tax Loss Harvesting Question
Replies: 5
Views: 433

Another Tax Loss Harvesting Question

Is there a catch in this strategy: 1.I am using Spec Id 2. Eight months ago I bought a 500 share lot of a fund at $10. 3. Four months later I bought another 500 shares of the same fund at $15. 4. My fund is now selling at $8 per share. Can I buy 500 shares of this fund at $8 and then turn around a f...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 05, 2014 1:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another Tax Loss Harvesting Question
Replies: 5
Views: 433

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2014)

The Hot Hands strategy is not what Weiner's newsletter promotes. It's just something he discusses with some interesting reasoning. Subscribers to the newsletter get the reasoning, which is what they need to make their own decisions. Anyone who buys any newsletter to blindly follow its recommendation...
by Scooter57
Wed Feb 05, 2014 1:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2014)
Replies: 32
Views: 3925

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2014)

I must have missed the part where they offer the secret initiation complete with vows of silence. Maybe that comes with the $199 version?
by Scooter57
Tue Feb 04, 2014 8:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2014)
Replies: 32
Views: 3925

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2014)

Since the hot hands fund is known to be the Vanguard fund with the best performance at a know time, it is hardly secret information.
by Scooter57
Tue Feb 04, 2014 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2014)
Replies: 32
Views: 3925

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2014)

Explorer was the 2014 hot hands fund, but Dan made a compelling argument about why he wouldn't be buying it. The October pick was Capital Value. In each case it is simply the Vanguard fund with the best 12 months performance at the end of Oct or Dec, excluding sector funds. I have been quite pleased...
by Scooter57
Tue Feb 04, 2014 11:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2014)
Replies: 32
Views: 3925

Re: madsinger monthly report (January 2014)

:wink: It's hard to understand why the 3 fund portfolio inspires such enthusiasm on this forum when it has so badly underperformed most of the other portfolios for 15 years. Compound the difference between it and several of Wiener's portfolios over that time period and you can see you have lost a lo...
by Scooter57
Tue Feb 04, 2014 11:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (January 2014)
Replies: 32
Views: 3925
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