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A Case for Individual Bonds?

I plan to increase the FI portion of our portfolio in the next couple of years, as we approach retirement. If the economy heats up in this timeframe, to the point that interest rates rise above 5% for Treasuries/Agencies (non-mortgage backed), does it make sense to lock in those rates, with some por...
by Rolyatroba
Tue Apr 22, 2014 11:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Case for Individual Bonds?
Replies: 5
Views: 341

Re: Reducing Sequence of Returns Risk

Actually, I was trying to distinguish between getting insurance before an actual loss occurs and how to deal with that loss if it wasn't insured. That does make me think that maybe I don't even take out one of these until it is needed. Sorta like buying insurance after the casualty! Of course, keep...
by Rolyatroba
Thu Apr 10, 2014 11:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reducing Sequence of Returns Risk
Replies: 11
Views: 1073

Re: Reducing Sequence of Returns Risk

I am not sure what problem you are trying to solve. If stocks do poorly the first 5 years of retirement, don't you just sell bonds to live on and rebalance at the same time? If paying down a mortgage is like buying a bond, does it not also hold true that taking out a mortgage (or HEL or SRM) is lik...
by Rolyatroba
Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reducing Sequence of Returns Risk
Replies: 11
Views: 1073

Re: Reducing Sequence of Returns Risk

When I see a new and complex financial product, my reaction isn't "why wouldn't anyone do this?". It's - "this product is probaby not in my best interest, but there's a very small chance it might be." Thanks for the input. I have studied the product, the paper quoted, and a few ...
by Rolyatroba
Wed Apr 09, 2014 12:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reducing Sequence of Returns Risk
Replies: 11
Views: 1073

Reducing Sequence of Returns Risk

I posted about this at the Theory forum and didn't get any responses...thought I'd try here. I am also encouraged by the recent comment made by Wade Pfau to my question on his blog (http://wpfau.blogspot.com/2013/04/ameriks-and-evensky-on-retirement-income.html -the last of the comments), so I want ...
by Rolyatroba
Tue Apr 08, 2014 1:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reducing Sequence of Returns Risk
Replies: 11
Views: 1073

Re: When is the best time to book a flight?

I am no expert on this but there are some things I know. First that recent $100 increase in pricing might be due to what is called "dynamic pricing", a semi-despicable practice where they do this to scare you into buying. They track IP addresses for this and also pay attention to web traff...
by Rolyatroba
Fri Mar 07, 2014 12:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When is the best time to book a flight?
Replies: 11
Views: 1189

Re: SWR Studies on the Effect of Asset Class Yields?

Thanks for the reply. I just looked and the book isn't on Amazon yet...I'll keep an eye out for it. Portfolio survivability is my most important consideration in setting my retirement AA, so I'll be interested to read it. To be clear, I'm not thinking about adding corporate debt (the most I'd see of...
by Rolyatroba
Wed Mar 05, 2014 7:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR Studies on the Effect of Asset Class Yields?
Replies: 3
Views: 268

SWR Studies on the Effect of Asset Class Yields?

Are there any studies, or discussions here (can't seem to find), that address tilting toward asset classes for the purposes of obtaining higher portfolio yield? I have learned here not to chase yield within an asset class (numerous topics on that subject), and not to treat unreasonably high exposure...
by Rolyatroba
Wed Mar 05, 2014 6:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR Studies on the Effect of Asset Class Yields?
Replies: 3
Views: 268

Re: Roth Conversion Deadline

Thanks for the inputs...I'm already vetting tax pros to figure out what is the best way to handle the NOL. Maybe I'll get a Roth conversion out of it via a future carry forward, but from what I can tell the most likely scenario is to carry back the NOL and lower my tax bill for the applicable year(s).
by Rolyatroba
Wed Mar 05, 2014 2:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth Conversion Deadline
Replies: 8
Views: 403

Re: Roth Conversion Deadline

I don't know much about NOLs other than you can run them backwards as well as forwards, but it a rare thing that you can skip one year and carry forward to the next. For example, you can't decide not to use your capital loss carryover this year since you are in the 15% bracket and want to save it f...
by Rolyatroba
Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth Conversion Deadline
Replies: 8
Views: 403

Re: Roth Conversion Deadline

Basically, because that is what is in the tax code. There are not many things you can do retroactively to impact your taxes. IRAs, HSAs are probably the two most common exceptions to the general rule that cash-basis taxpayers only count transactions that occur during the tax year. Thanks for the re...
by Rolyatroba
Tue Mar 04, 2014 9:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth Conversion Deadline
Replies: 8
Views: 403

Roth Conversion Deadline

I have only recently learned of Roth conversions, and have just learned that my 2013 taxes would not change an iota if I had $50k more in AGI (AGI minus deductions is negative, due to a business loss). It occurred to me to do a Roth conversion but upon looking into it, I see the deadline for that is...
by Rolyatroba
Tue Mar 04, 2014 4:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Roth Conversion Deadline
Replies: 8
Views: 403

Is an HECM Saver the Last Piece of My Puzzle?

In the last year I have struggled to develop the optimal strategy/plan for our retirement portfolio construction and retirement withdrawal tactics. There is just a lot of stuff I've learned on this forum that complicates this: 60/40 AA? 70/30? Tilt to Small or Value? Total Return Approach or Liabili...
by Rolyatroba
Thu Feb 13, 2014 6:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is an HECM Saver the Last Piece of My Puzzle?
Replies: 0
Views: 137

Re: Why Own Bonds at All?

The other thing that I have considered is a home equity loan to leverage my home's value to use as income during the down years. The advantage there is that you don't have to keep 2-3 of assets in a non-productive account even during good years--you only use the equity loan during bad periods. I th...
by Rolyatroba
Wed Feb 12, 2014 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Own Bonds at All?
Replies: 492
Views: 28505

Is there an Activist Investor Index?

Ran across a couple of recent articles on activist investing. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/20/us-investment-summit-activism-funds-idUSBRE9AJ15820131120 http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2013/08/06/the-golden-age-of-activist-investing/ An interesting fallout from the increase of asset...
by Rolyatroba
Fri Jan 24, 2014 4:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there an Activist Investor Index?
Replies: 0
Views: 159

Re: Why do VOO and VG 500 index fund not move together?

In case anyone is curious, the bug is related to a data lookup problem with the charting software. With VOO as the primary chart and VFINX the comparison, you can see that the VFINX values are incorrect for the built-in "5Y" chart. Changing the date manually, or choosing a different built-...
by Rolyatroba
Thu Jan 23, 2014 10:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why do VOO and VG 500 index fund not move together?
Replies: 17
Views: 888

Re: Why do VOO and VG 500 index fund not move together?

InvestorNewb wrote:Maybe yours is bogus.

In Yahoo, first get the chart for VFINX, then add VOO to compare, set to 5 years, and you'll see the problem with your chart (which is really some kind of bug in the Yahoo chart).
by Rolyatroba
Thu Jan 23, 2014 9:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why do VOO and VG 500 index fund not move together?
Replies: 17
Views: 888

Re: Clone backup to restore dead laptop hard drive?

I have that on my Lenovo laptop and did the rescue backup to a set of DVDs. When I ran that with the new hard drive in the laptop it did indeed restore to the original configuration. But that's not much good because everything I've added to the hard drive since it was new is not included. Then I we...
by Rolyatroba
Thu Jan 23, 2014 8:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Clone backup to restore dead laptop hard drive?
Replies: 13
Views: 612

Re: Clone backup to restore dead laptop hard drive?

Installing the OS is an OK option but I've never had good luck with the media the computer vendor sends. A real OS install disk works, but few individuals have a true install disk, although an IT dept probably would True...I forgot that OS disks are getting rarer and rarer with purchased PCs. That ...
by Rolyatroba
Thu Jan 23, 2014 5:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Clone backup to restore dead laptop hard drive?
Replies: 13
Views: 612

Re: Clone backup to restore dead laptop hard drive?

First of all, your backup is not likely useless. It is just not good for what is generally called a "bare metal restore". You should be able to restore data files from that backup to any computer that is operational. I'm an IT guy, and have used several cloning systems, including the above...
by Rolyatroba
Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Clone backup to restore dead laptop hard drive?
Replies: 13
Views: 612

ag1, What did you do?

Just saw this from a "Boise" key word search. Just curious what you ended up doing, as I moved from the big city to a small town outside of Boise (albeit not nearly the remoteness risk you're taking!).
by Rolyatroba
Tue Jan 21, 2014 6:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: buying farmland - help a city slicker
Replies: 20
Views: 6168

Re: BRK go to for weird risks - NCAA bracket bet

I saw this and wondered what the premium was/is that Quicken Loans had to pay for this policy. It would be trivial for the actuaries to calculate the expected payout. I'd bet the premium is highly correlated with the number of entries.
by Rolyatroba
Tue Jan 21, 2014 3:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BRK go to for weird risks - NCAA bracket bet
Replies: 16
Views: 1439

Re: Biggest regrets in your life in financial investment?

The company was Cisco. I bought it on the open market in August 1991 at 0.24 per share. Although not a bad investment story, I had a job offer to be employee number 47 at Cisco, when they were in one small building on Willow Rd. in Menlo Park, manufacturing routers on plastic folding tables. This w...
by Rolyatroba
Thu Jan 16, 2014 2:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Biggest regrets in your life in financial investment?
Replies: 101
Views: 7196

Re: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

Sure. CNBC a) has a great deal of respect for JB's opinions but b) does not see those opinions as either c) the only useful opinions out there or d) a threat to its (CNBC's) existence or business plan. You seemed to be puzzled by why CNBC would interview a potential antagonist or perhaps (my word c...
by Rolyatroba
Wed Dec 11, 2013 3:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future
Replies: 16
Views: 1712

Re: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

Let me get this straight. Does this mean you only listen to folks who reinforce your beliefs (sometimes called "confirmation bias")? Can you take me through the progression of logic that brought you to ask this question? I had a pretty simple question that others chimed in on, all without...
by Rolyatroba
Wed Dec 11, 2013 2:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future
Replies: 16
Views: 1712

Re: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future

Does anyone find this comical? The way the questions were posed, it felt like Fox News interviewing someone in the Sierra Club about taking wolves off the federal list of endangered species. Seriously, I'm curious why CNBC would have him on their network, when if everyone bought into what the man is...
by Rolyatroba
Wed Dec 11, 2013 12:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: Past performance is terrible guide to future
Replies: 16
Views: 1712

Re: Private Money Lending

Ok...understand on the pool manager risk. So, if I was to do on my own, and being I don't live in a very large area (thus not many opportunities), would you recommend a service like the below to find potential loans? http://www.loanmls.com Or just stay away from this if you can't actually visit the ...
by Rolyatroba
Thu Nov 07, 2013 3:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Private Money Lending
Replies: 102
Views: 7640

Re: Private Money Lending

Appreciate the input from both of you. As I said earlier, I would not recommend the pool route. I'm wondering if you would give some detailed reasoning why you wouldn't recommend the pool route. I did just look thru the thread and didn't see any mention of pools. My reasoning on going the pool route...
by Rolyatroba
Wed Nov 06, 2013 10:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Private Money Lending
Replies: 102
Views: 7640

Re: Private Money Lending

I have been thinking about getting back into trust deed/private money lending and just saw this thread. I thought I'd chime in because my rookie year at this started in 2007, and even though I thought I had done all the DD, I still lost 80% of this portion of my portfolio. The reason: I didn't inves...
by Rolyatroba
Tue Nov 05, 2013 9:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Private Money Lending
Replies: 102
Views: 7640

Re: Real Estate Agent Commission /SF Bay Area / Going Rate

Have you considered a flat rate MLS listing? I think for $500 or so, you can get it on the MLS, and then you just want to note in the listing that you are willing to work with the buying agent for a commission. Most of the Bay Area is pretty hot right now, so you shouldn't need much marketing that a...
by Rolyatroba
Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real Estate Agent Commission /SF Bay Area / Going Rate
Replies: 5
Views: 1032

Re: Body by Science Workout

I was doing regular strength training...up through December, 2012. Well, that's only 9-10 months off. I don't know how quickly people typically decondition in strength after a prolonged layoff, but for me, I had a rather surprising experience: earlier this year I took 10 weeks off due to a dislocat...
by Rolyatroba
Wed Sep 11, 2013 5:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 230
Views: 22287

Re: Body by Science Workout

So far, I certainly have not experienced the dramatic gains experienced by others in this forum. I didn't go back thru the thread to see if this is answered in one of your earlier posts, but had you already been doing strength training prior to starting this program? If so, you shouldn't be expecti...
by Rolyatroba
Wed Sep 11, 2013 4:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 230
Views: 22287

Re: Body by Science Workout

longview wrote:What are you guys using?

I do this workout at a Y; some of the equipment I use is from Strive and most of the others from Cybex. All single-station machines, and most with cams.
by Rolyatroba
Thu Sep 05, 2013 4:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 230
Views: 22287

Re: Body by Science Workout

Any more info on the cam vs a normal pulley would be great. Sure. It is well known and accepted in the exercise phys world that maximal available force in a strength exercise varies in different parts of the motion. For example, on a seated row, one can move a much higher load in the beginning part...
by Rolyatroba
Thu Sep 05, 2013 4:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 230
Views: 22287

Re: Body by Science Workout

What equipment are you guys using to do these machine exercises? (I'd like to avoid any kind of bowflex machine which requires switching things around and forcing breaks between sets -- I have space and budget for a fully-stocked home gym). The authors recommend something with a cam, so that you ca...
by Rolyatroba
Thu Sep 05, 2013 10:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 230
Views: 22287

Re: Body by Science Workout

...I fail to understand why you're harping on it except to try and 'disprove' my ideas using some incorrect faulty logic. Let me summarize why I am focusing on this (and hopefully show how this part of the thread is on topic): 1) the OP recommended trying out this particular exercise routine 2) you...
by Rolyatroba
Thu Sep 05, 2013 1:36 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 230
Views: 22287

Re: Body by Science Workout

I honestly don't know what you're really harping over, but I'll just clarify this point: I'm not sure why you're obsessing over the VO2, but this is the reality of Vo2 testing INCLUDING Bruce protocol: Contrary to what the authors say, you will NOT hit your genetic VO2 max (or anywhere near it) wit...
by Rolyatroba
Wed Sep 04, 2013 10:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 230
Views: 22287

Re: Body by Science Workout

If you are doing poorly on the Bruce protocol, the best way to get better at it is to do cardiovascular exercise, be it walking, then jogging, and if possible, even running. Weightlifting, like squats, bench presses, and deadlifts will do almost nothing for your Bruce protocol performance. You can ...
by Rolyatroba
Wed Sep 04, 2013 6:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 230
Views: 22287

Re: Body by Science Workout

I'm saying it with a dead straight face. Weight training offers me NOTHING in terms of overall health benefits compared to what I get as a pure runner if I consider weight loss, core muscle coordination, bone density, and true cardiovascular health. Sure, I can lift slightly heavier objects if I'm ...
by Rolyatroba
Wed Sep 04, 2013 4:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 230
Views: 22287

Re: Body by Science Workout

You can google it. There's far more literature on the CVD benefits of aerobic exercises than by using weight training to induce CVD benefits. Bruce protocol, etc., whatever endurance test you choose. Weightlifting will almost certainly not improve your Bruce protocol performance, particularly compa...
by Rolyatroba
Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 230
Views: 22287

Re: Body by Science Workout

A more succinct summary of your statement above is that the authors assume that the level of cardio needed for health is so minimal that it doesn't need to be specifically trained. That's not at all what they are saying. What they are saying is that strength training alone well engages the aerobic ...
by Rolyatroba
Tue Sep 03, 2013 8:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 230
Views: 22287

Re: Body by Science Workout

I am not disputing the authors' claims regarding the benefits of muscular conditioning on the cardiovascular system (related to efficiency and demand), but to state that there is no such thing as "cardio" is false. Your heart definitely responds positively to "aerobic conditioning&qu...
by Rolyatroba
Tue Sep 03, 2013 2:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 230
Views: 22287

Re: Body by Science Workout

The "debate" was precipitated by a rather radical claim by the authors of Body By Science that (if I understand correctly) their 12 min/wk weight training workout also doubles as an effective cardio workout routine, and that adding traditional cardio training can be detrimental, as it doe...
by Rolyatroba
Fri Aug 23, 2013 7:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 230
Views: 22287

Re: Body by Science Workout

Am invoking evolution. Well, what you're saying is that running is good because we evolved to be good runners. Again, judging something as good, from an evolutionary perspective, only says that it was good for survival. It doesn't imply at all that it is good now--in a time where most running is do...
by Rolyatroba
Tue Aug 20, 2013 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 230
Views: 22287

Re: Body by Science Workout

1. Running dose NOT invariably lead to knee damage. It's one of the biggest sports myths out there. I have come across that running isn't as bad for the knees as once thought. It spurred me to look up an old NPR piece from a couple of years ago--your assertion is corroborated here, but only for run...
by Rolyatroba
Tue Aug 20, 2013 6:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 230
Views: 22287

Re: Body by Science Workout

I'd actually argue the reverse of the authros' claims - as an adult in our calorie rich society, the priority should be on endurance training and not at all on strength. You can get all the functional strength you need by doing endurance workouts, and a 20 minute moderately paced run gives way high...
by Rolyatroba
Mon Aug 19, 2013 9:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 230
Views: 22287

Re: Body by Science Workout

They also eschew stretching, which I thought always seemed to be a sacred cow. Are their comments about stretching valid? Pre-exercise stretching had been almost universally accepted by the exercise physiology community, but in the last 10 years or so that has been challenged with new studies. If y...
by Rolyatroba
Sun Aug 18, 2013 1:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 230
Views: 22287

Re: Body by Science Workout

I can assure you, that this 'just train the muscles, not the heart' is oversimplified. It IS true, however, that you can train the heart very well by doing just faster than conversational pace workouts (zone2 HR). The flip side, though, is that you have to push the mileage/distance if you do this. ...
by Rolyatroba
Sat Aug 17, 2013 7:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 230
Views: 22287

Re: Body by Science Workout

I can guarantee that as good as that workout sounds for weight training, there is no substitute/shortcut for endurance training. You will never compress the physiological impact from a 10 mile run that you used to do within an hour, and if you race, your race results will prove this dramatically. F...
by Rolyatroba
Sat Aug 17, 2013 4:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 230
Views: 22287

Re: Body by Science Workout

it largely improves the neuromuscular component of strength (improved fiber recruitment, rate coding, and agonist/antagonist control). Will have to disagree again. Sitting in a chair, following the mechanics that a machine has decided for you (regardless of your own anthropomorphy) does not bring t...
by Rolyatroba
Mon Jul 08, 2013 2:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Body by Science Workout
Replies: 230
Views: 22287
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