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Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

My point is that impact is virtually infinite and it's hard to put a value on it.


Given SS and other social programs it is certainly not infinite. Many people do reasonably well with no savings.
by Rodc
Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9072

Re: sizeable negative balaance on credit card--how to access

If I needed the money now I would ask for a check.

But that is unlikely to raise to the level of bother I would bother with. I would just use the card for a couple of months and the "problem" would just go away. Just not a big deal unless you are living pay check to pay check.
by Rodc
Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: sizeable negative balaance on credit card--how to access?
Replies: 24
Views: 2743

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

We Boomers, I'm willing to bet, will surpass their longevity handily, on average. Even if we don't, I can't know how long I will live, and if this tail risk shows up and I am unprepared, there will be dire consequences. I would not take that bet. Longevity is increasing at a rate of about 3 months ...
by Rodc
Mon Dec 15, 2014 9:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9072

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

I need intellectual stimulation, and people in a nursing home I have encountered were the antithesis of what I need That is why we have the internet. Serious. It was a great gift to my mother. That and books. Given what was on her kindle she was keeping up with young adult fiction (which is pretty ...
by Rodc
Mon Dec 15, 2014 8:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9072

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

You are right. In Being Mortal , Atul Gawande describes the death of his father. The fact that both he and his father were physicians did not help when the ambulance has arrived. In the retrospect, they should not have called the ambulance. Victoria If the son fails to call the ambulance, he could ...
by Rodc
Mon Dec 15, 2014 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9072

Re: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival =

A lot of your chances of survival have to do with your family history. Does everyone in your family tend to live to 90-95 years old, with no history of cancer or heart disease? Then your odds of survival might be 50% instead of 0.1%. Does everyone in your family seem to kick the bucket at 70-75 yea...
by Rodc
Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds of portfolio survival = 90%; odds of my survival = 0.1%
Replies: 167
Views: 9072

Re: Does your work define you?

Yes and no. What came first the chicken or the egg? I have been this way since I was a boy tinkering with things and making up math problems to solve. And like it or not my degree and my job and my employer are well recognized and to some degree define me to others whether or not I want them to. And...
by Rodc
Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does your work define you?
Replies: 30
Views: 2699

Re: Need help with men's exercise clothes please

I find the nylon running shorts and t-shirts from Target are great. I have for one reason or another picked up a couple name brand items and none are actually better than the target stuff. Looks good, comfortable, wears like iron. Beware though that some people really love their cotton. And there re...
by Rodc
Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need help with men's exercise clothes please
Replies: 54
Views: 2998

Re: Does 80/20 have more risk or volatility than 60/40?

I'm not as interested in SD as a measure of risk, because it reflects gains as well as losses. IMO, a more meaningful metric is drawdowns. That's what investors are really worried about as "risk." On the one hand sure. But show me an investment that only has upside volatility and I bet yo...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 13, 2014 7:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 80/20 have more risk or volatility than 60/40?
Replies: 25
Views: 2628

Re: Comparing Results from VPW, RMD, & 4% Rule Withdrawals

There are so many variables in SDP and it is so complex to explain that I cannot see how you can come up with a number and say "See it is better than VPW". The columnist Scott Burns and Larry Kotlokoff the economist (and developer of a SDP tool ESPLanner) had an article some years ago tha...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 13, 2014 5:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing Results from VPW, RMD, & 4% Rule Withdrawals
Replies: 40
Views: 2184

Re: Comparing Results from VPW, RMD, & 4% Rule Withdrawals

I attempted a similar comparison (and also considered the effects of asset allocation over the entire lifecycle) in my Variable Withdrawal Showdown page. It can be summarized by in a single table: Improvement in portfolio consumption over age in bonds / 4% rule: 4% best% best IRS rule rule constant...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing Results from VPW, RMD, & 4% Rule Withdrawals
Replies: 40
Views: 2184

Re: Master degree in Math

FWIW: I have a friend who teaches math part-time a local CC. He a masters in oceanography but made is career writing software and middle management. He may have an undergrad in math, don't remember. The salary per class is a few thousand dollars, so this is almost volunteer work for him by the time ...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 13, 2014 1:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Master degree in Math
Replies: 43
Views: 3575

Re: For you slicers/dicers out there [rebalancing/adding new

Since mine is across taxable and tax advantaged, it's a bit trickier. Where it is trickier is the step where new money is not sufficient to keep things in balance. Otherwise, just put new money into whatever is lagging. If nothing in particularly low, you could split it up. My main advice remains t...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 13, 2014 10:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For you slicers/dicers out there [rebalancing/adding new $]
Replies: 20
Views: 1814

Re: For you slicers/dicers out there [rebalancing/adding new

It really does not matter; any more or less sensible approach is fine and as likely as any other approach to be best (or worst). The difference is going to be tiny. If I am very close to where I want to be I may split my new money into several funds. If one is really behind, I click a couple of butt...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 13, 2014 10:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For you slicers/dicers out there [rebalancing/adding new $]
Replies: 20
Views: 1814

Re: Master degree in Math

Unfortunately it seems you are nowhere near prepared for a solid MS program in mathematics. Take those calc classes at that will still be true. That is probably not enough for an undergrad minor in math. But, if you are interested I would encourage you to take those calc classes and take a couple up...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 13, 2014 10:00 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Master degree in Math
Replies: 43
Views: 3575

Re: How do you factor entitlements into your investing plan?

At 40 years out you can assume anything you want because you will likely be so far off it does not matter. Errors in assumptions grow exponentially, just like compound interest and for the same basic reason. The errors include assumptions about social security, career growth, investment returns, how...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you factor entitlements into your investing plan?
Replies: 50
Views: 3886

Re: (Poll) Did you tap into emergency fund in the past 10 ye

Not entirely sure how to answer as the "emergency fund" is just a liquid account that is used for emergencies, new car, vacation spending that goes over monthly free cash, home repairs you know are coming just not always sure when they will come, etc. It is a floating fund that most months...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 13, 2014 9:32 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: (Poll) Did you tap into emergency fund in the past 10 years?
Replies: 54
Views: 3466

Re: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.

Steve Dunn's remarks are interesting in regards to this discussion (see #8 below), originally found at: http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/t/162377.aspx Order of importance As a rather sluggish slice and dice type, I think that issue versus going total stock market is way down the...
by Rodc
Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.
Replies: 106
Views: 11217

Re: Toddlers first flight

A three year old can use an electronic babysitter. I am not keen on too much of this, but this is just the time for it. Maybe the 1.5 year old too. Antihistamine make be helpful as others noted, but for ears and sleep, but make sure you know how they will react. Some kids just get jacked up which is...
by Rodc
Wed Dec 10, 2014 8:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Toddlers first flight
Replies: 30
Views: 1832

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

It's not just that the underlying distributions of financial returns are unknown, but also that it's quite improbable that the distributions are stable over time , as pointed out by William Sharpe. The ice starts to get pretty thin pretty fast when we start applying tricky statistical analyses to f...
by Rodc
Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 21673

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

We only need the shape if we want to model returns. One does not need to model the returns and indeed until fairly recently no one did, and yet they invested just fine. I do think you are correct that even if we do want to model returns the precise details of the distribution don't matter. That is ...
by Rodc
Wed Dec 10, 2014 7:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 21673

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

We only need the shape if we want to model returns. One does not need to model the returns and indeed until fairly recently no one did, and yet they invested just fine. I do think you are correct that even if we do want to model returns the precise details of the distribution don't matter. That is ...
by Rodc
Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 21673

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

Is there a fund or a set of funds that implement Dr Bernstein strategy for a person that is in retirement? Thanks If you mean a rising stock allocation, the three fund portfolio of TSM, TISM, and TBM implement that as long as you rebalance to the glide path along the way. Rebalancing might require ...
by Rodc
Mon Dec 08, 2014 10:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7701

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

There is this idea of "fat tails", That you have the distribution right, except at the extremes. I think that is the wrong mental model. The fact is, the entire distribution is unknown. If you actually try to fit various parametric distributions to daily stock returns, such as Student's t...
by Rodc
Mon Dec 08, 2014 9:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 21673

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

What it shows me is that there is more than one way to "skin a cat".


Sure enough. But that is very different from stating this one method "remains very compelling to me"
by Rodc
Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7701

Re: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.

Let's look at 3 investors: One uses Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund One uses 50:50 Total U.S./ Total International One holds 20% International per John Bogle's suggestions Now, riddle me this: 1. Which investor's portfolio is the most complex? 2. Which investor has the largest exposure to the...
by Rodc
Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.
Replies: 106
Views: 11217

Re: Do you celebrate financial milestones?

We have not celebrated any milestones, but nothing wrong with doing so. I suspect we'll celebrate retiring which is a big milestone. :) I did mentally note and smile when we passed $1M in networth and am watching for passing $1M in savings which, market willing, will happen not too far into the futu...
by Rodc
Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:27 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you celebrate financial milestones?
Replies: 105
Views: 12078

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

I think Bernstein does a better job explaining the logic than Pfau and Kitces did. It remains very compelling to me. Why is it compelling when the data are so weak? All they have shown, if you look at their results, is that a rising glide slope is virtually indistinguishable from a constant allocat...
by Rodc
Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 7701

Re: Choosing the right Asset Allocation

Here is the results of historic analysis of a post-retirement portfolio. This is the same format as above: test all possible 30-year sequences using historic data across Asset Allocations ranging from 100/0 to 0/100. The goal here is to see whether the portfolio ran out of money before the end of t...
by Rodc
Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Choosing the right Asset Allocation
Replies: 30
Views: 2910

Re: Am I being cheap?

Cubic zirconium, aforementioned sapphires, and nontraditional gemstones just aren't going to cut it.


I'll have to tell my wife. She has the sapphire she requested
by Rodc
Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I being cheap? [wedding/engagement ring]
Replies: 192
Views: 8784

Re: Advice for lock-boxing inheritance for 20 years

That's really interesting. Should I just call up Vanguard and ask them what the options are? I think we'd want something that simply is lock-boxed, so to speak -- he only gets X amount per year for the number of years we choose (and we can decide if we want it inflation-indexed). Is it the kind of ...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice for lock-boxing inheritance for 20 years
Replies: 45
Views: 3648

Re: Family jewels, kind of.

I got a different vibe from some, I bet the parents think they are doing something nice, after all paying 1999 price must be a bargain given 15 years of inflation. Especially if they felt they got a bargain back in 1999. (most people think they are savy and have a knack for getting a bargain even wh...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Family jewels, kind of.
Replies: 44
Views: 3310

Re: Who Paid for the wedding?

Married nearly 20 years ago and daughter not yet married so we will see. Wife and I paid. But we were a bit older, I was late 30s, she was a little younger but second marriage. Wife's mom living on social security. So it made less sense for her family to pay due our ages and life situation, and at a...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who Paid for the wedding?
Replies: 94
Views: 6491

Re: Am I being cheap?

Wanting a ring does not make her some spend thrift. Many perfectly fine woman want a "decent" ring. For many it is the only fine jewelry they own. Nothing wrong with someone, man or woman thinking this is something of a waste of money, but you should recognize this places you outside of th...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 06, 2014 5:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I being cheap? [wedding/engagement ring]
Replies: 192
Views: 8784

Re: Transfer unused 529 from one child to another?

My thoughts are somewhat similar to raomin. I would presume no kids at this point, but over all think this is good but wonder about future schooling. That asked, I presume he could spend the new funding on schooling at some point if the funding is not otherwise spent. If so they would fund their own...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 06, 2014 4:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Transfer unused 529 from one child to another?
Replies: 5
Views: 629

Re: Advice for lock-boxing inheritance for 20 years

Fyi, if an annuity is selected I suspect that the owner could lump sum his/her interest by selling the annuity to a third party and there are no spendthrift protections. Nothing is perfect. I suspect this 18 year old would have a hard time pulling that off, but it would not be outright impossible. ...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 06, 2014 3:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice for lock-boxing inheritance for 20 years
Replies: 45
Views: 3648

Re: Advice for lock-boxing inheritance for 20 years

On another note: I don't know the details and don't need to as that is your business. I will just note that I have known some real loser kids who eventually turned things around. You don't want to let this kid suck the life out of you, your mom or others, but if you can find a middle ground between ...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice for lock-boxing inheritance for 20 years
Replies: 45
Views: 3648

Re: Advice for lock-boxing inheritance for 20 years

abyan, I'm curious what you thought of the idea of simply buying this kid (or all the kids to make the treatment equal) a 10 year annuity of some sort which gets everyone out of the business of running a small trust. It is not a perfect solution but it seems to solve a lot of the issues that seem to...
by Rodc
Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice for lock-boxing inheritance for 20 years
Replies: 45
Views: 3648

Re: Transferring files onto a new computer

When the day comes, I'll just do a restore from Crashplan. Do you know how fast that is? I did this once from Carbonite and it took several weeks! And that might have been at most 100Gigs. Mostly 14 years of family photos, iTunes. I don't know what people with lots of video have. I understand for m...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 05, 2014 4:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Transferring files onto a new computer
Replies: 30
Views: 2025

Re: Advice for lock-boxing inheritance for 20 years

Lots of discussion about trusts but seems that were talking about 250K here.... fees for that level of assets are going to be an issue and you would be stuck with a family member or a bank/suit that will charge huge fees. I just don't see it as workable for a small amt of dollars when split among a...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 05, 2014 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice for lock-boxing inheritance for 20 years
Replies: 45
Views: 3648

Re: Advice for lock-boxing inheritance for 20 years

abyan, Thank you for the kind words. My mom faced a different but somewhat similar situation, and a little easier. The problem is, he's a problem. There's significant concern about his ability to handle any money at any age, let alone $250k. He's on the verge of dropping out of high school, drinking...
by Rodc
Fri Dec 05, 2014 3:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice for lock-boxing inheritance for 20 years
Replies: 45
Views: 3648

Re: Choosing the right Asset Allocation

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=151211

Nothing wrong per se with some data analysis if one is careful to understand the limitations. If you have not read it the above current thread might be of interest.
by Rodc
Fri Dec 05, 2014 6:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Choosing the right Asset Allocation
Replies: 30
Views: 2910

Re: Low Price Nikon Camera

I think that may be true on some of the point and shoot weatherproof camera.


Yeah, that is all I meant. I presumed it would be different for a DSLR.

Yes, he as a lot of toys, I mean tools....

His hiking kit is a little smaller than in that picture, but it does not fit in his pocket. :)
by Rodc
Fri Dec 05, 2014 6:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Low Price Nikon Camera
Replies: 31
Views: 1754

Re: Low Price Nikon Camera

Then you may be interested in a weatherproof DSLR. My Pentax K-30 is one such model. The K-50 that replaced it is weatherproof also, and nearly identical except for style. Looks like the black K-50 with more conventional style is only $366 for bod y ! Cool! I had no idea. One reason for not owning ...
by Rodc
Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Low Price Nikon Camera
Replies: 31
Views: 1754

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Even more importantly, will financial models accommodate the next Black Swan(-like) event?


Evidence would seem to say "unlikely".

In this case I'm not sure I would rely on "Past results may not predict future performance.". :)
by Rodc
Thu Dec 04, 2014 7:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 262
Views: 21673

Re: Youngster talented in science and math

Scientific American is great and would give practice reading at a college level. That would be good. My son is a year younger and he just watches science lectures he finds on youtube and such. Lots of good material, but does not make a Christmas present. :) Something that is "real" scienc...
by Rodc
Thu Dec 04, 2014 7:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Youngster talented in science and math
Replies: 47
Views: 3292

Re: Low Price Nikon Camera

I don't take my tripod with me anymore since my DSLR now has such a high usable ISO range that it's moot. If you are on instagram look up timlaman. Take a look at the upstate NY waterfall. Or the picture down just a little taken on the coast of Maine. Both shots taken at long exposures. Two seconds...
by Rodc
Thu Dec 04, 2014 7:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Low Price Nikon Camera
Replies: 31
Views: 1754

Re: Youngster talented in science and math

Scientific American is great and would give practice reading at a college level. That would be good. My son is a year younger and he just watches science lectures he finds on youtube and such. Lots of good material, but does not make a Christmas present. :) Something that is "real" scienc...
by Rodc
Thu Dec 04, 2014 7:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Youngster talented in science and math
Replies: 47
Views: 3292

Re: Low Price Nikon Camera

For my next purchase I'm thinking a drone: http://www.bhphotovideo.com/explora/vid ... ora_Drones HD video for $72 and no need to climb up the 1000 ft vertical rock face to get the shot: http://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/1 ... white.html Last winter I was doing an ice gully climb up Mt Washingt...
by Rodc
Thu Dec 04, 2014 7:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Low Price Nikon Camera
Replies: 31
Views: 1754

Re: Fly or drive? Not just time vs. money anymore

We are facing a similar problem. We have 2 toddlers 1.5 and 3 years old. It is 1800 miles trip and we have 13 days. We have a new minivan so no rental. I looked up and it would cost about $1200 to fly for 4 of us not including car rental when we get there. Not sure what to do. Is that 1,800 round t...
by Rodc
Thu Dec 04, 2014 5:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fly or drive [with a newborn]?
Replies: 58
Views: 4545
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