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by Rodc
Fri Jul 17, 2015 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller - The Mirage of the Financial Singularity
Replies: 17
Views: 2506

Re: Shiller - The Mirage of the Financial Singularity

With monkeys, the paper 'The Surprising Alpha From Malkiel's Monkey' shows average monkey portfolios (run 100 different times) outperform comfortably .. Theory accommodates that, saying they'd have more exposure to size, value and momentum, and risk Yes, poor choice on my part as it gets into the c...
by Rodc
Fri Jul 17, 2015 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What 2008/09 has done to me
Replies: 158
Views: 18728

Re: What 2008/09 has done to me

It taught me that both my husband and I need to have a job. Never feel too comfortable with your job and the income you earn. You can lose them all anytime. I agree, though one has to be careful not to fall into the trap of increasing lifestyle (especially fixed costs like mortgage). If you need on...
by Rodc
Fri Jul 17, 2015 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller - The Mirage of the Financial Singularity
Replies: 17
Views: 2506

Re: Shiller - The Mirage of the Financial Singularity

Much like the returns from the Quantum fund, from the 60s to 90s, it's a stain on the idea markets are operating at near-100%-efficiency Perhaps, but this is something of a strawman as only the most naive believe in 100% efficient markets that can never be beat by anyone (either by luck or skill). ...
by Rodc
Fri Jul 17, 2015 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are REITs necessary in a portfolio? Why?
Replies: 119
Views: 12916

Re: Are REITs necessary in a portfolio? Why?

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Rodc wrote:Others have mentioned that 2008 was a real wake up call regarding the effect of leverage on most REITs in a credit crunch.
'08 was a wake up call for many things.


There is that!
by Rodc
Thu Jul 16, 2015 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller - The Mirage of the Financial Singularity
Replies: 17
Views: 2506

Re: Shiller - The Mirage of the Financial Singularity

I have not read Larry's book but I suspect Shiller completely misses the point. The point, I think, is not that all this professional hard work make the markets absolutely perfectly efficient (much less the assumption that computers program themselves without human effort), but rather it is getting...
by Rodc
Thu Jul 16, 2015 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are REITs necessary in a portfolio? Why?
Replies: 119
Views: 12916

Re: Are REITs necessary in a portfolio? Why?

Might have been said, but in case not, TSM is not the market portfolio. All sorts of things are not in TSM, bonds and private real estate in particular. So, if you think the market portfolio has some special properties that you would also like to have you need to add bonds and private real estate (a...
by Rodc
Thu Jul 16, 2015 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller - The Mirage of the Financial Singularity
Replies: 17
Views: 2506

Re: Shiller - The Mirage of the Financial Singularity

I have not read Larry's book but I suspect Shiller completely misses the point. The point, I think, is not that all this professional hard work make the markets absolutely perfectly efficient (much less the assumption that computers program themselves without human effort), but rather it is getting ...
by Rodc
Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I tipped 15% and got a dirty look
Replies: 129
Views: 6801

Re: I tipped 15% and got a dirty look

I don't really worry about the tip on tax thing. Yeah, the tax is not food or drink, but for me it is kind of lost in the round off noise. I can calculate the tip with whatever percentage on whatever subtotal I want in my head if not too late and wine consumption was moderate (otherwise I have a sma...
by Rodc
Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Having Trouble buying big ticket item
Replies: 57
Views: 4543

Re: Having Trouble buying big ticket item

Ask me about the 2500 I saved doing the custom painting and staining myself, which paid for the pool table Doing some work yourself does not actually "earn" any money which buys something else. If you have to fix your car because it does not run I can buy the argument. If you give your ca...
by Rodc
Tue Jul 14, 2015 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Having Trouble buying big ticket item
Replies: 57
Views: 4543

Re: Having Trouble buying big ticket item

Ask me about the 2500 I saved doing the custom painting and staining myself, which paid for the pool table Doing some work yourself does not actually "earn" any money which buys something else. If you have to fix your car because it does not run I can buy the argument. If you give your ca...
by Rodc
Tue Jul 14, 2015 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Having Trouble buying big ticket item
Replies: 57
Views: 4543

Re: Having Trouble buying big ticket item

My wife isn't really enthused about spending so much on a game room item and without her on board it takes the excitement out of it. Which on one hand is frustrating given how small the purchase is relatively speaking. Plus I think you need to spend some money once in a while, other wise...what is ...
by Rodc
Mon Jul 06, 2015 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pull-ups and Push-ups
Replies: 395
Views: 70712

Re: Pull-ups and Push-ups

Australian pull up


Most folks in the US call that a "row"

Never thought to suggest that as a way to build up to a pull up.
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too Much Indexing???
Replies: 44
Views: 3974

Re: Too Much Indexing???

But I think you can see with Malkiel's example of China A-Shares, passive investors over that period would've returned effectively nothing, while investors in active mutual funds would've averaged 10% Can you provide an article? I'd be interested in how that was computed as it seems to defy basic a...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 3156

Re: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?

A simpler analysis would just look at peak earning age demographics in the US versus overall economic growth rate. If I recall, Bill McBride has done a fair bit of that---it predicted a 'headwind' for economic growth from 2005 to 2015 or so, due to the US baby bust 1968 to 1983 (there are far fewer...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Other Side, part 3
Replies: 16
Views: 2106

Re: The Other Side, part 3

Ideally any potential lump sum investment should be assessed on current valuations. The Wall Street Crash years were preceded by the Roaring 20's, when stocks doubled, doubled again and doubled yet again within a decade or so. Similar in the case of Japan's 1990 peak. Lumping in after such prior fa...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Other Side, part 3
Replies: 16
Views: 2106

Re: The Other Side, part 3

What do you mean--move from bonds to stock instead of cash to stock? What I suggested is that the standard approach to DCA is to put all the money in some interest bearing safe(ish) investment, might be bonds, might be CDs, whatever, but something that earns some return. Slowly from this stash fund...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too Much Indexing???
Replies: 44
Views: 3974

Re: Too Much Indexing???

But I think you can see with Malkiel's example of China A-Shares, passive investors over that period would've returned effectively nothing, while investors in active mutual funds would've averaged 10% Can you provide an article? I'd be interested in how that was computed as it seems to defy basic a...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too Much Indexing???
Replies: 44
Views: 3974

Re: Too Much Indexing???

I still think this 'efficient enough' idea is quite optimistic Two issues have to be true for me to benefit. 1) Efficiency is low 2) I find a way to find and exploit the inefficiency 2 will be true for Goldman et al. far before it becomes to true for me. Which is likely to restore 1 and eliminate 2...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you buy used cars like a Boglehead actually should?
Replies: 168
Views: 19750

Re: Do you buy used cars like a Boglehead actually should?

We only buy used cars from private parties. Typically higher mileage cars with all maintenance records. Our reasoning, which has worked fairly well over the years, is that people typically trade in cars with maintenance issues. Good quality cars that have been properly maintained are more like to b...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 6:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Assuming Retirement Withdrawal from Portfolio Value
Replies: 14
Views: 1820

Re: Assuming Retirement Withdrawal from Portfolio Value

The other issue is that the annuity calculator that cranks out $40k per year for a $700k SPIA is NOT inflation indexed--it is a fixed $40k per year not adjusted for inflation. The 4% recommendation assumes the payout is corrected for inflation, thus maintaining purchasing power over the 30 years. G...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 3156

Re: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?

One thing here I wonder about is that to use the past to predict the future is you need the basic underlying market forces to be constant (more or less). If we have a growing middle class in the current third world, that might be a bigger driver than changing age structure. The main take away might ...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 5:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Assuming Retirement Withdrawal from Portfolio Value
Replies: 14
Views: 1820

Re: Assuming Retirement Withdrawal from Portfolio Value

That works for an insurance company because they can take money from folks who die young to pay folks to live long.

You don't get to do that.
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 5:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Other Side, part 3
Replies: 16
Views: 2106

Re: The Other Side, part 3

We have always known that sometimes DCA beats Lump sum. You can find particular starting points using US stocks as well where this is true. I suspect if you start with the US at the top of the tech bubble and lump vs DCA you get similar results. The real issue is which is more likely to work best? T...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 4:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too Much Indexing???
Replies: 44
Views: 3974

Re: Too Much Indexing???

I suspect that as long as a few hedge funds, mega wealthy investors, active funds, sovereign funds, and greedy people who want to beat the market exists there will be enough competition for markets to be efficient enough for indexing to continue to work well. And not only will we always have those f...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 4:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles Ellis - In Defense of Active Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 1888

Re: Charles Ellis - In Defense of Active Investing

I love it! Almost as good a tongue in cheek post as Ellis! Ha, you know I'm being semi-serious though Timeless rule of investing - you can't all do the same thing .. In the case of price-following, it would be like every car on the highway trying to coast on the car in front's slipstream Yes. I sus...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 26, 2015 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles Ellis - In Defense of Active Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 1888

Re: Charles Ellis - In Defense of Active Investing

I'm half convinced there's a conspiracy to get everyone into passive funds so the wealthy can buy into hedge funds and get back to the days of 30-40% returns My aim is to be wealthy enough to buy in by the time passive investing is pushing the 50% mark I love it! Almost as good a tongue in cheek po...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 26, 2015 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Most Economical Way to Handle the Lawn
Replies: 84
Views: 8167

Re: Most Economical Way to Handle the Lawn

Over the years we've tried to transition the perimeter of our yard to native plants and ground cover. I admire anyone who can do it successfully. A number of native plants in this cell phone photo from Tuesday shows that native plants can be stunning: http://i60.tinypic.com/25i9ate.jpg That is fabu...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 26, 2015 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a worker's increased PIA due to high earning years after FRA change Spousal Benefits?
Replies: 11
Views: 1196

Re: Can a worker's increased PIA due to high earning years after FRA change Spousal Benefits?

PIA = Primary Insurance Amount, a Social Security term of art. There is more information about this in the Bogleheads wiki: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Social_Security Another excellent and very worthwhile resource is Oblivious Investor's book Social Security Made Simple. It's a very lucid and c...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 26, 2015 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a worker's increased PIA due to high earning years after FRA change Spousal Benefits?
Replies: 11
Views: 1196

Re: Can a worker's increased PIA due to high earning years after FRA change Spousal Benefits?

What is a PIA?

Personal internet assistant?

That is what I need as I have no idea off hand what you are talking about. :)
by Rodc
Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Couples and money and compatibility
Replies: 38
Views: 4387

Re: Couples and money and compatibility

Started at category 2.5 and evolved to category 1.

Not always easy, but can be done if both parties have good intentions and at least somewhat open minds.

We are both better off for the evolution.
by Rodc
Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?
Replies: 92
Views: 13529

Re: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?

This is true more generally. If you work for a company that specializes in X and you specialize in Y, even if they need Y, it is hard to be fully accepted in the in to the Club which will tend to be reserved for those who specialize in X. My experience is that the company doesn't have to specialize...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 26, 2015 9:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?
Replies: 92
Views: 13529

Re: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?

The other moral of the story is to never work in software at a non-software company. It sucks. This is true more generally. If you work for a company that specializes in X and you specialize in Y, even if they need Y, it is hard to be fully accepted in the in to the Club which will tend to be reser...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 26, 2015 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?
Replies: 92
Views: 13529

Re: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?

The other moral of the story is to never work in software at a non-software company. It sucks. This is true more generally. If you work for a company that specializes in X and you specialize in Y, even if they need Y, it is hard to be fully accepted in the in to the Club which will tend to be reser...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 26, 2015 5:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 8731

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

If anyone's not used Research Affiliates' excellent site, it gives estimated 10-year real returns on a range of asset classes Whether it proves to be right or wrong, it's essentially the same process AQR and others have used to forecast weak returns from US equities and bonds .. So it could be some...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 26, 2015 5:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth aspiring to get more?
Replies: 131
Views: 17794

Re: Is it worth aspiring to get more?

I still think there is a big difference between someone who may well live another 40 years and while they have enough, more still has some value and someone with the same amount and gets the message you will live only 6 more months. I would retire now if I knew I was going to die in 6 months but I ...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 8731

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

These articles always leave me wondering one question: how long these "low returns" are supposed to last? I wouldn't be surprised if we had 1%-2% real return in stocks and 0% in bonds over the final 50 years of my life (assuming I make it that long). The only thing I can do about it is cu...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?
Replies: 78
Views: 8880

Re: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?

Here's an interesting case. I went back to December 1999 when Shiller PE was 44.19. So I used 1/PE10 (0.02262955, 0.20) for stocks. I've read that, in 1999, 30-year TIPS had real YTM = 4%. So I used (0.0400, 0.00) for bonds. Here is the output of the gordoni2's python script: stocks: gm=1.0222 am=1...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles Ellis - In Defense of Active Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 1888

Re: Charles Ellis - In Defense of Active Investing

Although it may be temptingly easy for casual observers to fault active managers by focusing all too narrowly on the disappointing results and high fees experienced by naive but ever-hopeful investors, the splendid benefits rendered directly and indirectly by active managers clearly deserve much mo...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 26984

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

Rodc commented on the Business Insider article chart I posted: "Hey, with two data points you can extrapolate to anywhere you want! :)" Sure you can, at least in this case, and still arrive at a reasonable conclusion. When looking at the long term value of the Shiller P/E, I can see the C...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 8731

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

But my pay is up by a factor of 4 ^ This isn't a "problem" must people have :wink: Joking aside, you make a fair point. Not to derail the thread, but that is another disadvantage of compressed earning (the major disadvantage being the tax structure). This another reason to start investing...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth aspiring to get more?
Replies: 131
Views: 17794

Re: Is it worth aspiring to get more?

No one is talking about regret AFTER you're dead... Regret happens when the doctor tells you that the reason you have trouble breathing is because you have Stage IV cancer and six months to live. Here's a question to ask yourself... If you were told you had 6 months to live, would you choose to con...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 8731

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

These articles always leave me wondering one question: how long these "low returns" are supposed to last? http://mathieu.bouville.name/finance/when-does-long-term-start/Bouville-return_envelope.png "Over five years there is a 90% probability for the return to be between −6% and +20% ...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did 2008 change your investing strategy?
Replies: 58
Views: 5439

Re: Did 2008 change your investing strategy?

Something like 5 years later I moved to 60/40 from 70/30, but mostly due to changes in circumstances like less need to take on risk in hopes of greater returns and less ability to take on risk. Not that 2008 is not still part of my conscious and unconscious thinking. I haven't lived through a crash,...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 8731

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

I did not start investing yesterday. The stocks and bonds I hold today may in fact provide low returns from here out for quite a while. But most have already have appreciated quite well as they were purchased little by little over the last 25 years or so. My plan did not require very high returns an...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth aspiring to get more?
Replies: 131
Views: 17794

Re: Is it worth aspiring to get more?

No one is talking about regret AFTER you're dead... Regret happens when the doctor tells you that the reason you have trouble breathing is because you have Stage IV cancer and six months to live. Here's a question to ask yourself... If you were told you had 6 months to live, would you choose to con...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What percent of your spending is "basic" and what percent is "discretionary"?
Replies: 42
Views: 4139

Re: What percent of your spending is "basic" and what percent is "discretionary"?

In other words I suppose one could say we can adjust the answer by adjusting the definitions of basic and discretionary. What basic is is discretionary. As things exist now I will enter retirement with a small mortgage payment. I could in principle sell and buy elsewhere and have no mortgage (and e...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 26984

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

Here's a noteworthy passage from the article: "Equities have typically only suffered negative real returns over a given five-year period when the Shiller P/E at the beginning of the period was above 26x (and clearly good real returns when the Shiller P/E had fallen below 13x). http://www.busin...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What percent of your spending is "basic" and what percent is "discretionary"?
Replies: 42
Views: 4139

Re: What percent of your spending is "basic" and what percent is "discretionary"?

The original question seemed framed in the context of retirement planning. When I retire in the not too distant future our expenses will be very different from today. Today I am saving for retirement and college. I am paying into social security, etc. I am feeding two teenage boys. I am sending two ...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 26984

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

awval999 wrote:I'm getting a bit anxious; my IPS states to move to Age+10 in bonds when P/E 10>30.


What measure of bond valuation does your IPS use?

What does it say if bonds are also over priced?
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Other Side, part 2
Replies: 41
Views: 5916

Re: The Other Side, part 2

Rodc, I defined dollar cost averaging in this case as periodically investing an equal amount at the beginning of every year (see first post). It doesn't assume that the person had money elsewhere. I was thinking more in terms of people over their working years, putting, say, $1000 of their previous...

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