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Re: Do commodities/CCFs belong in an investment portfolio?

Do a search on CCF in this sub-forum.

The answer is either yes or no, and is a topic of very active debate going back quite a while between Larry and Rick.
by Rodc
Mon Jun 17, 2013 5:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do commodities/CCFs belong in an investment portfolio?
Replies: 5
Views: 293

Re: Sub-emerging Markets: All that's left is the crying

I have about 7% in emerging bonds. It is up 9.65% over the last 10 years. Down this year. Something is always winning in the short term and something is always losing. My domestic stocks are up this year. International not so much. Emerging bonds are down. US bonds are flat. Year to date annualized ...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 15, 2013 9:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sub-emerging Markets: All that's left is the crying
Replies: 42
Views: 3704

Re: Poll: How much cash do you carry?

When I get cash I generally get $100, and often because I am out and need some cash. Thus it immediately drops. Then it slowly gets spend on things over a couple of weeks. I often get to zero before I get more. Given the immediate drop and then average with zero, I'm guessing the average is somethin...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 14, 2013 8:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Poll: How much cash do you carry?
Replies: 94
Views: 4183

Re: Isn't Tilt or splice and dice = active mngmnt?

When it is known that the optimum asset allocation for a period can not be known except either in theory or in retrospect, isn't "tilt" or "splice and dice" portfolio just another form of active management? Back to your original question. The terms active management and passive ...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 14, 2013 1:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't Tilt or splice and dice = active mngmnt?
Replies: 58
Views: 1888

Re: Isn't Tilt or splice and dice = active mngmnt?

The efficacy of allocations with tilts is another topic altogether, and one debated many times on this forum. There's little point in another. The original question in this thread has likewise been beaten to death many times as well so little point in it either question. But both are zombie questio...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 14, 2013 12:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't Tilt or splice and dice = active mngmnt?
Replies: 58
Views: 1888

Re: Isn't Tilt or splice and dice = active mngmnt?

When it is known that the optimum asset allocation for a period can not be known except either in theory or in retrospect, isn't "tilt" or "splice and dice" portfolio just another form of active management? Back to your original question. The terms active management and passive ...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 14, 2013 10:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't Tilt or splice and dice = active mngmnt?
Replies: 58
Views: 1888

Re: Isn't Tilt or splice and dice = active mngmnt?

They define deviating from the market portfolio as "active management".


True and unfortunate as it leads to a definition almost devoid of usefulness.

Added, when used in the general press seems to always be used in a sloppy manner and so while used is not properly defined.
by Rodc
Fri Jun 14, 2013 10:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't Tilt or splice and dice = active mngmnt?
Replies: 58
Views: 1888

Re: Isn't Tilt or splice and dice = active mngmnt?

There is a wide range from pure passive to wildly active. The concern is not so much to use only pure passive, but to stay well away from wildly active. A pure passive strategy is one where you buy and then never tough the money (and no manager touches it for you). Cap weighted funds theoretically d...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 14, 2013 9:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't Tilt or splice and dice = active mngmnt?
Replies: 58
Views: 1888

Re: Stay at home dads?

My hat is off to you stay at home dads.
by Rodc
Tue Jun 11, 2013 6:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stay at home dads?
Replies: 65
Views: 3319

Re: Stay at home dads?

My wife stayed home many, but not all years. She's great with the kids, but she isn't so great at cooking, cleaning, scheduling, organizing. I do all that, and the groceries. I don't understand your question. LOL! Would your wife agree that you did all the cooking, cleaning, organizing, scheduling ...
by Rodc
Tue Jun 11, 2013 6:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stay at home dads?
Replies: 65
Views: 3319

Re: Stay at home dads?

Here's what I would like to add though. Do you know any families with a stay at home dad? How will your husband feel not contributing financially? How will he feel about taking on a unique role that has always been associated with the mother of the family? Perhaps he won't say anything about it but...
by Rodc
Tue Jun 11, 2013 4:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stay at home dads?
Replies: 65
Views: 3319

Re: Dry, breathable, lightweight, reasonably priced rain she

Excellent and very helpful responses! Thanks, everybody. I decided to go with the Marmot Precip on sale at REI through tomorrow for $65.73 including shipping (seems like quite a bargain- 31% off plus another $20 off if purchased by tomorrow, being returnable from a reputable company...just saying i...
by Rodc
Tue Jun 11, 2013 3:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dry, breathable, lightweight, reasonably priced rain shell
Replies: 59
Views: 1871

Re: What % of Gross Income Should You Spend on a New Car?

New vehicle buying is quite exciting on this rotation - cars change a lot when your rotation period is around 12 years!


Yep, even buying a base or near base level car is a nice bump up. :)
by Rodc
Tue Jun 11, 2013 3:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What % of Gross Income Should You Spend on a New Car?
Replies: 70
Views: 2881

Re: What % of Gross Income Should You Spend on a New Car?

Spend what you need to spend, not necessarily what you can afford to spend. By your calculation I can buy a very nice German luxury car. I bought a base model Subaru Forester which I will keep for at least 10 yeas. It does everything I need and does it reasonably well. The difference between the two...
by Rodc
Tue Jun 11, 2013 3:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What % of Gross Income Should You Spend on a New Car?
Replies: 70
Views: 2881

Re: Stay at home dads?

I think right now our biggest concern is DH's transition from working to home life. He's great with the kids, but he isn't so great at cooking, cleaning, scheduling, organizing. Sometimes the issue is not that someone else is lacking in these areas but that they simply do things differently or have...
by Rodc
Tue Jun 11, 2013 3:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stay at home dads?
Replies: 65
Views: 3319

Re: College costs, anyone else spit coffee on their monitor?

lindisfarne wrote: even better students are less well prepared When challenged you nit picked on the side issue of AP classes, rather than the substance of the challenge. When that failed you simply side stepped by changing your point to the non better students: The world may be flat at the top of t...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 08, 2013 8:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College costs, anyone else spit coffee on their monitor?
Replies: 151
Views: 9430

Re: College costs, anyone else spit coffee on their monitor?

This isn't simply due to a higher % of the population going to college - even better students are less well prepared. That is a bit of an overly broad brush. Same for similar comments about kids getting out of college which we sometimes see. I'm a research scientist/engineer/mathematician depending...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 07, 2013 5:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College costs, anyone else spit coffee on their monitor?
Replies: 151
Views: 9430

Re: Free Cars for Life [POLL]

I have for most of my life bought used cars. In the beginning as a student they were beaters. Then after college they were a few years old (did this twice, sold at 12 years old). Then one new one with a modest loan and large down payment. I would have continued with late model used, except that late...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 07, 2013 1:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free Cars for Life [POLL]
Replies: 77
Views: 3351

Re: [Can I afford a] New Car Purchase

FWIW: my daughter is about your age and bought a car about a year out of school. She is not in any position to work on her own car, does not understand how they work etc, and needed a reliable car for work. It was not terribly quick, but she found a dealer selling a one-year old Toyota Yaris with 10...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 07, 2013 12:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Can I afford a] New Car Purchase
Replies: 48
Views: 2614

Re: College costs, anyone else spit coffee on their monitor?

If you aren't absolutely sure that you are all set for retirement, I wouldn't save a nickel for college until retirement is completely taken care of. Remember, you can always get a college loan, but retirement loans are a lot harder to come by. :P But even beyond that, I wouldn't pay those prices f...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 07, 2013 12:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College costs, anyone else spit coffee on their monitor?
Replies: 151
Views: 9430

Re: 30 year TIPs auction on June 20th, 1.25% real yield???

Anything else is suicidal speculation IMO


A little hyperbolic, no?

I can't say I'm excited about 1% real or so, but suicidal, really?
by Rodc
Fri Jun 07, 2013 9:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year TIPs auction on June 20th, 1.25% real yield???
Replies: 53
Views: 5073

Re: Student Loan Repayment Strategy

Just my take on this: you are making something simple more complicated than it needs to be. If you were making $25K a year, or if making $65K and had $200K in debt all this might be important. But as it is you are doing a lot of work for minimal benefit. At the rate you are going you can be done in ...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 06, 2013 2:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Student Loan Repayment Strategy
Replies: 32
Views: 2892

Re: College costs, anyone else spit coffee on their monitor?

...sometimes parents paying full or nearly full price are paying for the discount. You will know if the government is paying. In the last two cases it looks like the school is paying but the funding can be a pass through from other parents to your kid. Also, low income students taking out six-figur...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 06, 2013 11:24 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College costs, anyone else spit coffee on their monitor?
Replies: 151
Views: 9430

Re: Count social security towards your bond allocatiion?

People get all tangled up on the distinction between taking the existence of pensions and annuities into account (recommended) and taking them into account by capitalizing the income stream and counting that capitalization as a bond in the asset allocation (illogical)... We see that in a number of ...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 06, 2013 11:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Count social security towards your bond allocatiion?
Replies: 65
Views: 3281

Re: College costs, anyone else spit coffee on their monitor?

I hear this a lot. My question is whether or not those students who pay less receive grants that pay a portion, or do the universities truly just lower the price for them? The bill lists the full price and a discount is also listed. The real price is then listed as the difference. In some cases the...
by Rodc
Wed Jun 05, 2013 6:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College costs, anyone else spit coffee on their monitor?
Replies: 151
Views: 9430

Re: Possible bullying at work

just_trailing wrote:How many of you follow this philosophy "Don't lock horns with knuckleheads"?

This is what my situation is concluding to...


And you can't have a rational discussion with an irrational person.

Best of luck!
by Rodc
Wed Jun 05, 2013 5:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Possible bullying at work
Replies: 87
Views: 6614

Re: Reasonable to sell a house that needs some work?

How does one find builders or fixer uppers that will buy houses that need work, refurbish them, and then resell them? Dick Around here you take a small or medium sized house on any lot, or even a fairly big house if on a large lot and put a For Sale sign up. Well, they don't refurb them, they knock...
by Rodc
Wed Jun 05, 2013 5:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Reasonable to sell a house that needs some work?
Replies: 33
Views: 2116

Re: El-Erian: Walk, Don't Run From Equities Risk

"Reduce your equity risk, your liquidity risk, your credit risk. Those are the three to reduce," he added. To answer your question: I'm a bit confused - anyone care to apply/clarify El-Erian's CNBC comments (below) to a TSM/TBM 3-Fund Portfolio? Liquidity risk is low in this portfolio, bu...
by Rodc
Wed Jun 05, 2013 7:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian: Walk, Don't Run From Equities Risk
Replies: 36
Views: 3616

Re: future tenant wants to start a day care

EmergDoc wrote:Sounds like a good way to trash your investment.


I rented a place after the previous tenant ran a day care. Carpet had some interesting colors. :)
by Rodc
Tue Jun 04, 2013 3:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: future tenant wants to start a day care
Replies: 23
Views: 1932

Re: definition of "accumulator"

OP, Johnathan Clement often wrote about reaching "critical mass". I would say this probably is a division between EARLY accumulators vs. LATE accumulators. Critical mass is the point one is making more in return from the portfolio per year vs. how much one is contributing to the portfolio...
by Rodc
Tue Jun 04, 2013 3:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: definition of "accumulator"
Replies: 23
Views: 1226

Re: definition of "accumulator"

Accumulator is anyone who is not a Decumulator. A Decumulator is someone with annual withdrawals of money from their portfolio or net worth for any reason. The portfolio can gain in net value because of investment returns, but there are no more outside additions to the portfolio. I tend to agree wi...
by Rodc
Tue Jun 04, 2013 2:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: definition of "accumulator"
Replies: 23
Views: 1226

Re: definition of "accumulator"

Accumulator is anyone who is not a Decumulator. A Decumulator is someone with annual withdrawals of money from their portfolio or net worth for any reason. The portfolio can gain in net value because of investment returns, but there are no more outside additions to the portfolio. Sounds pretty good...
by Rodc
Tue Jun 04, 2013 2:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: definition of "accumulator"
Replies: 23
Views: 1226

Re: benefit of buying a home now?

I was looking at a newly built home in a good neighborhood with good schools. Do not predict moving somewhere else in the near future, but who knows. Currently have a 3 year old and another on the way. Unfortunately live in a higher cost location, so if I were to throw some numbers out, I think ren...
by Rodc
Tue Jun 04, 2013 9:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: benefit of buying a home now?
Replies: 20
Views: 2196

Re: Returning used items to the store [POLL]

I didn't answer the poll. It's OK to return it if you bought it in good faith that you would keep it, and only through use did you find it did not meet expectations. And it meets the store's condition requirements. Think about it. When you buy an item you usually buy a sealed box. You trust their d...
by Rodc
Tue Jun 04, 2013 9:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Returning used items to the store [POLL]
Replies: 50
Views: 2046

Re: Reasonable to sell a house that needs some work?

If as you stated, the extra $10K comes with some risk that you will spend a lot of money and in fact not realize a benefit. Off hand this must be some special situation where there are only a few special buyers, otherwise a year is way to long. If you wait that long you have simply overpriced the pr...
by Rodc
Tue Jun 04, 2013 9:04 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Reasonable to sell a house that needs some work?
Replies: 33
Views: 2116

Re: How to compare performance?

Except in my case XYZ happens to be a professionally managed portfolio only in existence since 2009. I probably should have been more specific. That is ok. I did not mean to literally add treasuries. Just do it on paper. A similar approach is to just compute the Sharpe Ratio of each. Unfortunately ...
by Rodc
Mon Jun 03, 2013 2:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to compare performance?
Replies: 3
Views: 222

Re: Count social security towards your bond allocatiion?

No.

See responses in other threads.
by Rodc
Mon Jun 03, 2013 1:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Count social security towards your bond allocatiion?
Replies: 65
Views: 3281

Re: How to compare performance?

I suggest you add enough short term treasuries to which ever has the highest standard deviation so that both have the same standard deviation. The idea is to get both to (about) the same risk. Then you can compare returns. (Could normalize returns instead and compare risk). SD is of course not reall...
by Rodc
Mon Jun 03, 2013 1:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to compare performance?
Replies: 3
Views: 222

Re: Correlation between interest rates and stock returns

Just yesterday in the Sunday paper there was an article where an "expert" said that rising bond rates were positive for stocks! He has a 50% chance of being right. Rick Ferri Yeah, just to be careful I think I'll sell $100K in stocks and buy bonds. And sell $100K of bonds to buy stocks. T...
by Rodc
Mon Jun 03, 2013 1:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation between interest rates and stock returns
Replies: 19
Views: 1491

Re: Correlation between interest rates and stock returns

Just yesterday in the Sunday paper there was an article where an "expert" said that rising bond rates were positive for stocks! The story went that rising rates are bad in the short-intermediate run for bond funds, so as rates rise people will pull out of bond funds and put the money into ...
by Rodc
Mon Jun 03, 2013 12:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation between interest rates and stock returns
Replies: 19
Views: 1491

Re: Asset Allocation for those with a defined benefit pensio

Complicating things are that private sector DB/ Final Salary schemes are under huge threat I believe-- I think IBM was the poster child for moving everyone to 'cash balance' schemes at a significant loss to some employees? Whether one counts it as future income, annuity, "bonds" this is a...
by Rodc
Fri May 31, 2013 8:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation for those with a defined benefit pension
Replies: 25
Views: 1496

Re: Downpayment Money from In-Laws

(2) Setting up some type of trust or LLC that would allow us to buy out my in-law's ownership percentage in the house over time. Can you clarify this point? I have seen this work a couple of ways. Most often the parents make a simple loan, most often with some interest rate. They take no ownership ...
by Rodc
Fri May 31, 2013 6:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Downpayment Money from In-Laws
Replies: 44
Views: 2499

Re: benefit of buying a home now?

Unless you can tell me the future I can't answer based on financial considerations.

Likely it also depends on where you are looking and possibly on what specific property you are interested in.

The best time to buy a house is often when you desire to own a home.
by Rodc
Fri May 31, 2013 6:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: benefit of buying a home now?
Replies: 20
Views: 2196

Re: Include Social Security in Asset Allocation?

It should be considered in your estimate of future income needs (ie it lowers the estimate for what needs to come from your portfolio). It may effect your risk tolerance and ability to take risk. It most certainly is not a bond. You can't trade it. You can't leave to your children or charity. I pers...
by Rodc
Fri May 31, 2013 6:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Include Social Security in Asset Allocation?
Replies: 25
Views: 1428

Re: Used Car Purchase...Please Help

I have tried headlight kits but the lights themselves just [stink --admin LadyGeek] . I will not sell this car as it is only in fair condition with high mileage. Will likely donate to charity. Based on responses, I should keep the car longer like maybe another year and then look to buy either a new...
by Rodc
Thu May 30, 2013 5:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Used Car Purchase...Please Help
Replies: 33
Views: 2280

Re: Beginner question on portfolio balancing

There have been many such studies. The answer is that one method to another the difference in performance is tiny and random. Which does better is really just a matter of what time you look at. Change the time, some other method comes out on top, by a tiny margin. Pick any more or less standard meth...
by Rodc
Thu May 30, 2013 4:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beginner question on portfolio balancing
Replies: 3
Views: 311

Re: Stock Ownership Hits Record Low.. (link)

hicabob wrote:There are some like my ex-biz partner who swore off stocks after one of the crashes (2000 crash in his case) and since then just use cd's. The fellow has many millions in cd's.


Sounds like he has no need for stocks.
by Rodc
Thu May 30, 2013 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Ownership Hits Record Low.. (link)
Replies: 30
Views: 3108

Re: Asset Allocation for those with a defined benefit pensio

Assuming you're confident the pension will be there in the future*, MANY will likely suggest that the pension: - should be treated as a future source of retirement income that reduces the amount of income that your retirement portfolio will need to generatee - could reduce your need to take risk, t...
by Rodc
Thu May 30, 2013 4:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation for those with a defined benefit pension
Replies: 25
Views: 1496

Re: If you could have only one fund, what would it be?

Vanguard target retirement
by Rodc
Thu May 30, 2013 4:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you could have only one fund, what would it be?
Replies: 87
Views: 12970

Re: Used Car Purchase...Please Help

Option one: purchase a used civic with approximately 100,000 miles that is 2006 and newer which would cost approximately $10,000. A car might go 200K miles without many repairs. More likely it either dies short of 200K, maybe well short, or needs some expensive repairs to get there. You can buy a b...
by Rodc
Tue May 28, 2013 9:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Used Car Purchase...Please Help
Replies: 33
Views: 2280
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