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Re: Cost to setup a Living Trust?

Cost will depend a great deal on the details. A living trust, as I understand it, can range from very simple to very complex. It depends on your situation.
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 6:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cost to setup a Living Trust?
Replies: 18
Views: 1193

Re: what should MIL do with "windfall"?

Given the update and where she is, putting the cash towards paying down the mortgage is not a bad thing. Might not be optimal, but is not bad. The main thing BIL might discuss is making sure she has enough liquid savings to function as an emergency fund. Could be cash or have some equity in mutual f...
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what should MIL do with "windfall"?
Replies: 12
Views: 1260

Re: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirem

One thing to keep in mind is that one can also use a Monte Carlo simulation which in effect uses a range of values and weights them by some assumed likelihood. Not at all perfect since no one knows the appropriate distribution to use or even what mean to use. For this reason I'm not sure it really h...
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 2:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?
Replies: 59
Views: 4385

Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40

Investing is incredibly simple. Save enough to retire a bit early given 0% real returns. If returns are worse than that, work until normal retirement age. If returns are higher than that, do something fun with the money. Who needs expected returns? :D Probably overly conservative for most, but I wo...
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 2:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 232
Views: 23384

Re: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40

With all due respect to Dr. Bernstein.....I have a lot of respect for him and what I have read of his work.....I would ignore anybody's financial predictions going ten years into the future. If you have any doubts about this, go back ten years and read what the experts were predicting for today. If...
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 2:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: A Decade of Super-Low Returns [1.4% for 60/40]
Replies: 232
Views: 23384

Re: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirem

XIRR is a great tool for performance calculations. It is a loosely tool for performance attribution . XIRR is very sensitive to cash inflows. Did you get 8% because your portfolio tracked the index? Or did you get 8% because your time was lucky – that you made larger contributions to your 401 happe...
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 2:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?
Replies: 59
Views: 4385

Re: Hypothetical "Can he pull the plug?"

For
much of the world's population, your situation is not just viable, it's downright enviable.


True but probably not germane. The median world family income is less than $10K a year. Less than $3000 a year per capita. I suspect that the OP is looking to be rather farther up in the income scale. :)
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 12:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hypothetical "Can he pull the plug?" [Retire early]
Replies: 37
Views: 2669

Re: Should I apply for manager's job or continue as a techie

I asked this question earlier and nobody had an answer - "would it be out of line for me to ask other co-workers if they are applying/interested in the position"? It really depends on your relationships. I would think mostly this has more cons than pros. But I have seem people do this and...
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 12:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I apply for manager's job or continue as a techie?
Replies: 88
Views: 4218

Re: Peter Bernstein's 60/40 solution

Just goes to show you that simple truths are hard to follow. Similar for Burton Malkiel of "Random Walk Down Wall Street" fame. John Bogle might be as close to a true LONG TERM advocate of buy and hold, though he has some thoughts about tactical asset allocation from time to time. Thanks....
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter Bernstein's 60/40 solution
Replies: 31
Views: 3538

Re: Age in Bonds Poll

Bobby: Actuarially, stocks beat bonds. So the expected return is the expected return. I have no crystal ball for the future, but the expected return on equities is greater than on debt instruments. You seem to be controlled by fear of an-historic events (a 90% drop in the market???). It seems your ...
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds Poll
Replies: 72
Views: 3530

Re: Should I apply for manager's job or continue as a techie

This is short term thinking it seems to me. If one is up against the top of whatever lane they are in, to increase pay you have to switch lanes. Say you are in track A with a top salary of $X. If you move to track B the top is $2X. It might be a modest pay raise per year to get to $2X, but if you s...
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:13 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I apply for manager's job or continue as a techie?
Replies: 88
Views: 4218

Re: Hypothetical "Can he pull the plug?"

If health care is going to be a significant expense (I know family might be $20K a year, what is single, $13K or something, wild guess) I think you likely do not have enough for comfort. This plan seems to have little room for a significant market down turn, health issue, or other unexpected large e...
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 8:01 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hypothetical "Can he pull the plug?" [Retire early]
Replies: 37
Views: 2669

Re: Approach to Second Act Career Switch

... and then ride off into the sunset with millions in tax-deferred accounts and a reasonable pension. (Spouse will also have a public sector db pension, which will approximately equal mine, though my salary accounts for about 2/3 of household income.) ... snip ...; In terms of finances, we are doi...
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approach to Second Act Career Switch
Replies: 17
Views: 1251

Re: Daycare, nanny, Montessori

I would likely go with option 2, but is this a high quality place with consistent caregivers or lots of turn over? My answer would hinge on that. As for getting sick, near as I understand it your children will run through all the various cold and other viruses sooner or later as they build their imm...
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Daycare, nanny, Montessori
Replies: 16
Views: 1315

Re: what should MIL do with "windfall"?

Jack FFR1846 wrote:An easy answer is to pay it all towards the mortgage.


Would depend on her need for liquidity.
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what should MIL do with "windfall"?
Replies: 12
Views: 1260

Re: Peter Bernstein's 60/40 solution

Just goes to show you that simple truths are hard to follow.

Similar for Burton Malkiel of "Random Walk Down Wall Street" fame.

John Bogle might be as close to a true LONG TERM advocate of buy and hold, though he has some thoughts about tactical asset allocation from time to time.
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter Bernstein's 60/40 solution
Replies: 31
Views: 3538

Re: What is too long to stay the course?

Very few people put their life savings into the market at the high-water mark of the NASDAQ. Even fewer of those who did, then did not go on and invest more money over the years. Let's face it, if the course is stupid, then one should not even be on that course in the first place. This. Plus NASDAQ...
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is too long to stay the course?
Replies: 50
Views: 3184

Re: Age in Bonds Poll

We are at 54.2% equities and 44.8% bonds. Our desired AA is 50% equities, 50% bonds. So pretty soon I will rebalance back to our desired AA. Our ages are both 61, just about 62. We are not following any particular "rule of thumb", it's just the even split is comfortable at this moment in ...
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds Poll
Replies: 72
Views: 3530

Re: Age in Bonds Poll

Bobby: Actuarially, stocks beat bonds. So the expected return is the expected return. I have no crystal ball for the future, but the expected return on equities is greater than on debt instruments. You seem to be controlled by fear of an-historic events (a 90% drop in the market???). It seems your ...
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds Poll
Replies: 72
Views: 3530

Re: what should MIL do with "windfall"?

What do you mean "dump it into the new house"? Frivolous upgrades or needed maintenance? Something else? Is she all set for retirement (could be true even if not maxing out ROTH), has a negative net-worth, something in between? Your question is totally lacking in enough detail to answer. I...
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:02 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what should MIL do with "windfall"?
Replies: 12
Views: 1260

Re: Should I apply for manager's job or continue as a techie

There is no right or wrong answer. Once you make enough to put a roof over your head, food on the table, take care of your needs and some of your wants, more money is not that important. Too many focus on the dollars. I suggest that is the wrong thing to focus on. Focus on what makes you happy and f...
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 6:51 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I apply for manager's job or continue as a techie?
Replies: 88
Views: 4218

Re: Should I apply for manager's job or continue as a techie

TS, You are making a BIG assumption here. Please confirm this before you proceed. You are assuming that the manager position makes a lot more. Based on your description so far, I do not think so. Please confirm that before you proceed. I wouldn't expect that the next manager will make as much as th...
by Rodc
Fri Apr 24, 2015 6:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I apply for manager's job or continue as a techie?
Replies: 88
Views: 4218

Re: Approach to Second Act Career Switch

What is it you imagine will excite you? What skills to you have? What skills can you develop?

Your question is rather open ended.
by Rodc
Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approach to Second Act Career Switch
Replies: 17
Views: 1251

Re: SWR rule and Social Security

This is one of the typical examples why safe withdrawal rate studies are studies of how portfolios work and not plans for managing assets in retirement. There are a bunch of retirement planning models out there that incorporate such features as the beginning of a new income stream several years int...
by Rodc
Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR rule and Social Security
Replies: 13
Views: 1072

Re: Co-sign on spouse's student loans?

I don't know how this works. On the one hand I think as a practical matter when you get married money and debts largely become a joint venture, in practice if not in law. I mean really, if you are both doing your best are you going to let her default while you go on vacation or buy an upscale car? N...
by Rodc
Thu Apr 23, 2015 7:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Co-sign on spouse's student loans?
Replies: 36
Views: 1876

Re: SWR rule and Social Security

A couple of suggestions. 1. You could simply apply the 3.3% against your current portfolio and consider the future SS payments as "reinforcements" - insurance against your plan failing or to be used for potential old age healthcare or disability needs. 2. Split your portfolio into 2 bucke...
by Rodc
Thu Apr 23, 2015 6:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR rule and Social Security
Replies: 13
Views: 1072

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

For the past 2 posters, I believe in the value premium. However, I don't believe PE10 captures it as well as other metrics. What does P/E10 have to due with the value premium? P/E10 is a total market measure (P is over some 80% of the market missing some small, but both growth and value at cap weig...
by Rodc
Thu Apr 23, 2015 6:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 5588

Re: Marriage and splitting expenses

You're being pedantic. I beg to differ. Not only is this what some suggest, I have seen it done in practice. It does not work well with unequal paychecks (unless both are more than adequate). It's pretty obvious what is an "us" expense and what is a "me" expense for anyone who h...
by Rodc
Thu Apr 23, 2015 6:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Marriage and splitting expenses
Replies: 111
Views: 6213

Re: Marriage and splitting expenses

Separate accounts do not inevitably lead to separate vacations, The issue was not separate accounts, it was sticking too closely to my money and her money based on income which some suggest. Certainly having $X go into play money accounts one for each partner does not lead to this problem. There ar...
by Rodc
Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Marriage and splitting expenses
Replies: 111
Views: 6213

Re: Do you Bogleheads really follow the 3-4% SWR rule?

It was never meant to be an actual plan to be used. It was a rough and ready measure for rough planning, a "plan" written in pencil.
by Rodc
Thu Apr 23, 2015 2:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you Bogleheads really follow the 3-4% SWR rule?
Replies: 46
Views: 3245

Re: Marriage and splitting expenses

And, to the poster who asked "who wants to live like that?" in regards to talking about purchases: it seems a little strange to outsiders. Yes, getting to know your partner, learning to work together as a team, her working to help him get what he wants out of life, he working to help her ...
by Rodc
Thu Apr 23, 2015 1:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Marriage and splitting expenses
Replies: 111
Views: 6213

Re: Marriage and splitting expenses

Trying not to be offended by the comments that if people don't wallow in the same bank account they are headed for divorce court. I suspect the wallowers are young, or got married young. Those of us who prefer some independence, I suspect, have seen more, learned some. Was first marriage for me, la...
by Rodc
Thu Apr 23, 2015 1:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Marriage and splitting expenses
Replies: 111
Views: 6213

Re: Marriage and splitting expenses

Similar here. Though with kids. All money goes into a common pot. +1 Just to add Every job success either of us had was due to the partner's unending support, tolerance, encouragement and willingness to pick up the slack. So my wife's pay raise was OUR pay raise and vice versa. Oh, and its OUR kids...
by Rodc
Thu Apr 23, 2015 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Marriage and splitting expenses
Replies: 111
Views: 6213

Re: Middle Level Exec - Compensation Package

Option 1: Annual 25% stock bonus plus 25% performance bonus. 5 additional years (LTIP) guranteed in case of mergers, etc. Option 2: Annual 25% plus 25% $ bonus every 2 years. 5 additional years (LTIP) guranteed in case of mergers, etc. Seems you would want to specify how the performance is calculat...
by Rodc
Thu Apr 23, 2015 1:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Middle Level Exec - Compensation Package
Replies: 3
Views: 689

Re: Middle Level Exec - Compensation Package

Leave: Time off this summer and 4 weeks every 4 years.


Do you really just mean 4 weeks per year vacation? This reads like 1 week a year, but if he takes something like 4 weeks this year he gets no more vacation until 4 years is up.
by Rodc
Thu Apr 23, 2015 1:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Middle Level Exec - Compensation Package
Replies: 3
Views: 689

Re: Marriage and splitting expenses

Similar here. Though with kids. All money goes into a common pot. We spend on what we need first, including savings. We spend on wants next and sometimes that is more for me and sometimes more for wife (and kids of course). This requires some negotiating if wants are greater than the amount availabl...
by Rodc
Thu Apr 23, 2015 6:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Marriage and splitting expenses
Replies: 111
Views: 6213

Re: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirem

It is a bit "brute force" but ti see the historical number I use Firecalc. When I enter $1,000 with zero withdraws for 20 years the result with their default portfolio is; FIRECalc looked at the 125 possible 20 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000 and sp...
by Rodc
Wed Apr 22, 2015 7:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?
Replies: 59
Views: 4385

Re: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirem

This does not feel right. Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 has had a 9.2% Average Return (the return for any given year.) 4.3% Geometric Average Return (The annual return if you held the index for 20 years.) Mind you, these numbers are highly sensitive when you contributed your money. Depend...
by Rodc
Wed Apr 22, 2015 6:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?
Replies: 59
Views: 4385

Re: Should I paint the house next door?

How much would it cost to have painted? How much is your house worth everything as is? How much might your house be worth with this eyesore painted? You could also pay half. I would look at code first, but from everything I have read in many locations code enforcement is very slow to non-existent. B...
by Rodc
Wed Apr 22, 2015 4:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I paint the house next door?
Replies: 17
Views: 2225

Re: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirem

This may sound odd, but we didn't, and don't, "use" any "rate of return" for planning. We've saved all along, doing the best we could while also living our lives comfortably. (Sure, looking back, there are lots of ways we'd have done it differently, but still not by using any pa...
by Rodc
Wed Apr 22, 2015 4:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?
Replies: 59
Views: 4385

Re: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirem

Twenty years out so much is unknown I don't think detailed planning has too much value but still good to track vs some notional growth. I mean, if you can't get to retirement by early 60s with some more or less historical growth you know you are in trouble, need to cut expenses and increase savings....
by Rodc
Wed Apr 22, 2015 3:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?
Replies: 59
Views: 4385

Re: Looking for advice or experiences regarding a job change

I would ignore the title issue myself; so much window dressing.

Move for the personal growth which sounds real.

One issue is do you want to live in the boonies vs near Boston? Some people love the boonies, some don't. How does that work for you and your spouse?
by Rodc
Wed Apr 22, 2015 3:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for advice or experiences regarding a job change.
Replies: 3
Views: 259

Re: any experiences negotiating fences with neighbors?

We and our neighbors had no fences. We had young children and needed a fence to keep the kids in. I don't think we asked anyone, but we did mention it, and did ask the backyard neighbors if we could put a gate in the back so the kids could retrieve balls and such. Never occurred to me to ask for mon...
by Rodc
Wed Apr 22, 2015 3:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: any experiences negotiating fences with neighbors?
Replies: 27
Views: 2208

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

If you think that valuations matter Often these discussions get derailed because folks do not define terms. In this case "Matter" for what and in what way? Good for tactical asset allocation? Where you shift your allocation to stocks by 5% or 10% on a 10-year buy-and-hold time scale? Shif...
by Rodc
Wed Apr 22, 2015 1:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 5588

Re: Neighbor is hoarder, piling garbage outside, collecting

A situation like this arose in our town.

House was condemned by the Board of Health.

You might try that route.
by Rodc
Wed Apr 22, 2015 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Neighbor is hoarder, piling garbage outside, collecting vans
Replies: 32
Views: 4677

Re: Can't get excited about bond funds

You can use cash, just use less as it reduces risk more than bonds. That said, historically it also hurt returns a little for the same risk. See the link: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9759&highlight=bond+length However, once in a while you can get better rates on CDs than bond...
by Rodc
Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can't get excited about bond funds
Replies: 19
Views: 1526

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

No one can predict the movement of stocks with any reliability. Shiller is hardly alone in that failure. See Goyal's work on predicting asset returns. Not the movement, but perhaps the pull of gravity .. I use a quantum physics analogy: You can't predict where something will be, but you can predict...
by Rodc
Tue Apr 21, 2015 4:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 5588

Re: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?

The initial post, I believe by you, claimed PE10 was 'discredited... You are confused. You can't even begin to make a case with so little data. However I will amend this to: You can't even begin to make an empirical case with so little data. And I further note making an empirical case is commonly a...
by Rodc
Tue Apr 21, 2015 3:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Shiller's PE10 (CAPE) Get Any More Discredited?
Replies: 81
Views: 5588

Re: Family member asking for money

I am more interested in helping the nephew. The money is only fungible if the child was going to be sent to the program anyway. By paying the school directly, I can ensure that the help is given.


Good point about frungibility or lack thereof.
by Rodc
Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Family member asking for money
Replies: 141
Views: 13571

Re: Teachers: 9 or 12 month salary?

What about tax withholding? Every time you get a paycheck, the tax formula for withholding assumes that that paycheck is what you will receive on a regular basis throughout the entire year. So, you may be withholding too much by going with 9 months of pay. But you're a Boglehead, so you figured out...
by Rodc
Tue Apr 21, 2015 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Teachers: 9 or 12 month salary?
Replies: 26
Views: 3345
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