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Re: Subaru and Consumer Reports ratings

... Outback & Forester would be on my our short list to replace our Honda Odyssey. That being said, I am not convinced Subaru is any more reliable than other makes. One reason I chose my Cadillac CTS over a Subaru was because at the time the maintenance requirements for the turbo model were pre...
by Rodc
Fri Feb 27, 2015 9:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Subaru and Consumer Reports ratings
Replies: 81
Views: 5299

Re: Do I have enough to retire at age 50?

I note that if you sell the house and invest $300K you might be able to generate that level of income with no work and perhaps less risk (4% withdrawal pretty much). The median household gets by on about $50K/year. You can certainly live on your wife's salary. May or may not be the lifestyle you are...
by Rodc
Fri Feb 27, 2015 3:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I have enough to retire at age 50?
Replies: 27
Views: 3060

Re: Approaching 50...What to expect?

Learn to adapt. It's a very underrated skill. As we get older we no longer have physical abilities and the memory we once had. Know your limitations and live within them. We know a couple about our age who decided to go ice skating a few weeks ago after not having done it for decades. The man fell ...
by Rodc
Fri Feb 27, 2015 2:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Approaching 50...What to expect?
Replies: 106
Views: 9354

Re: Are remote starters bad for cars?

Any car this century ...(t)he maximum you should generally warm up your engine is as 'wander' said "when the temperature gauge starts to move". Such this century cars may exist, but my cars from this century do not have temperature gauges. :) They did mid-last century though. :) Some of u...
by Rodc
Fri Feb 27, 2015 1:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are remote starters bad for cars?
Replies: 40
Views: 2116

Re: Are remote starters bad for cars?

They are awesome inventions. Why should I spend 30 seconds in discomfort, when I can inefficiently burn fossil fuels that have been in the ground for millions of years? I wonder about that 30 seconds. None of the cars I've owned have warmed up the passenger cabin noticeably in 30 seconds of idle. W...
by Rodc
Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are remote starters bad for cars?
Replies: 40
Views: 2116

Re: Are remote starters bad for cars?

Any car this century ...(t)he maximum you should generally warm up your engine is as 'wander' said "when the temperature gauge starts to move".


Such this century cars may exist, but my cars from this century do not have temperature gauges. :)

They did mid-last century though. :)
by Rodc
Fri Feb 27, 2015 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are remote starters bad for cars?
Replies: 40
Views: 2116

Re: Are remote starters bad for cars?

Who told you to let the car warm up or idle for a few minutes? This is an old wives tale It was some old gray haired lady. I had a hard time figuring out if she was just somebody's old wife or really was a witch, and so she made me kind of nervous. I was only a teenager so I figured best to just go...
by Rodc
Fri Feb 27, 2015 11:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are remote starters bad for cars?
Replies: 40
Views: 2116

Re: Illiquid Assets

returns can be increased by increasing risk. The is false on its face. It you could increase returns simply by increasing risk you would have decreased risk. 2+2= 5 if and only if 2+2=4 cannot be true because it is internally inconsistent. You can increase expected return by increasing risk, but si...
by Rodc
Fri Feb 27, 2015 8:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illiquid Assets
Replies: 27
Views: 1692

Re: Are remote starters bad for cars?

I would be worried about the effect on the engine by warming at idle in the winter. When the engine is cold, lubrication is at its worst, and you would be prolonging operation with poor lubrication. As I recall, auto owners manuals suggest immediately after starting to drive at moderate speeds to w...
by Rodc
Fri Feb 27, 2015 8:00 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are remote starters bad for cars?
Replies: 40
Views: 2116

Re: Subaru and Consumer Reports ratings

I live in the North East with this year's near record snow. I have a 2009 Forester, base model. It gets a fair amount of abuse hauling stuff to the dump, hauling scouts and camping gear, hauling climbing gear winter and summer. It is great in the snow. No problems, just over 100,000 miles. It goes s...
by Rodc
Thu Feb 26, 2015 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Subaru and Consumer Reports ratings
Replies: 81
Views: 5299

Re: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500

So, when you download the Shiller data that lists price, dividend, and earnings for the S&P composite back to 1871, what exactly is it really showing? Sounds like a nice little Google project as to how that reconstruction was performed. I recall, hazily, that the Fama-French reconstruction of t...
by Rodc
Thu Feb 26, 2015 7:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500
Replies: 28
Views: 3498

Re: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500

Cap weighted indexes systematically overweight the most expensive stocks and underweight the cheapest. That's how they're designed. Some would say that's a fatal flaw. The problem with that logic is the following. Company A has sales of X and profits Y and 1000 shares that sell for $Z. Company B ha...
by Rodc
Wed Feb 25, 2015 6:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500
Replies: 28
Views: 3498

Re: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500

Speaking of streaks and interesting patterns, since 1928 the S&P 500 has had more than 50 instances where it's advanced at least eight days in a row.


Pretty good for an index started in 1957...
by Rodc
Tue Feb 24, 2015 4:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Interesting facts about the S&P500
Replies: 28
Views: 3498

Re: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500

The methodology cited in this article and the also mentioned Dalbar study is flawed and can overstate the performance gap between investor and index returns. As others mentioned, this has nothing to do with value as even straight index investors can seem to suffer the same fate. The Finance Buff do...
by Rodc
Tue Feb 24, 2015 1:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing doesn't even beat the S&P 500
Replies: 45
Views: 4259

Re: How much did you have saved up for retirement at age 30?

Zero. I was still in grad school.

It was enough because I am nearing retirement and all is well.
by Rodc
Tue Feb 24, 2015 1:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much did you have saved up for retirement at age 30?
Replies: 166
Views: 10259

Re: Thoughts on replacing tires?

In my experience, snow tires are a necessity on a rear wheel drive car. For front wheel drive, the all season tires do just fine. Of course, snow tires would be better on a front wheel drive car, but you would need them on all for wheels, and it is not really necessary. My front wheel drive cars ha...
by Rodc
Tue Feb 24, 2015 12:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thoughts on replacing tires?
Replies: 60
Views: 3398

Re: ? present value of soc sec and pension

Go to an insurance site. Find an insurance product that is close to each option. Get a quote. with a COLA on first $18,000 of up to 3% based on 50% of the CPI Are you in MA? I'm curious why you asked this, Rodc. Are MA residents in some sort of unique situation? MA state pensions behave this way (o...
by Rodc
Tue Feb 24, 2015 11:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ? present value of soc sec and pension
Replies: 37
Views: 2809

Re: ? present value of soc sec and pension

Ignoring these "annuities" runs the risk of making allocation decisions too conservative, and the loss of possible accumulations becomes a real risk to longevity and lifestyle. And I do plan to hold about 8% of my equities portfolio in cash-like assets. No one is suggesting you ignore the...
by Rodc
Sun Feb 22, 2015 7:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ? present value of soc sec and pension
Replies: 37
Views: 2809

Re: ? present value of soc sec and pension

Ignoring these "annuities" runs the risk of making allocation decisions too conservative, and the loss of possible accumulations becomes a real risk to longevity and lifestyle. And I do plan to hold about 8% of my equities portfolio in cash-like assets. No one is suggesting you ignore the...
by Rodc
Sun Feb 22, 2015 7:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ? present value of soc sec and pension
Replies: 37
Views: 2809

Re: To Fence ... Or Not?

Glad to hear it worked out well.
by Rodc
Sun Feb 22, 2015 7:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To Fence ... Or Not?
Replies: 93
Views: 8146

Re: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"

The historical data seems to indicate that these have not been the same fund, that value and small would be over-weighted in the latter.


I tried to address that in the three steps in a post above. Seems there are a few reasons why this might be so.
by Rodc
Sun Feb 22, 2015 3:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"
Replies: 22
Views: 753

Re: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"

RIght, and apologies for expanding my post... In casual use we recognize the existence of separate "markets." In technical use, what do financial economists say? For example, is "the market" equivalent to "all securities?" I think context matters, as it often does. We ...
by Rodc
Sun Feb 22, 2015 3:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"
Replies: 22
Views: 753

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

Rick Ferri wrote:By a perception of greater loss during a bear market for a retiree, I meant there is a perception that a market downturn is worse than if the same person was working and adding money to their account.

Rick Ferri


Right, I agree. Just commenting on the fact I think that is true, but even worse.
by Rodc
Sun Feb 22, 2015 12:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 127
Views: 13026

Re: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"

the fact that the cap weighted and tangency portfolios have in fact had different weights for small and value if you just take the measurable returns, variances and covariances at face value . Think that gets to a few things. 1) standard deviation is not really a complete measure of "risk"...
by Rodc
Sun Feb 22, 2015 12:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"
Replies: 22
Views: 753

Re: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"

A random question. Really just a question, don't look for a "point" here. In your personal opinion, are assets that are not "on the market" part of "the market portfolio?" There must be something in the back of someone's mind when they construct (and when Vanguard inde...
by Rodc
Sun Feb 22, 2015 10:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"
Replies: 22
Views: 753

Re: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"

In the ordinary casual uses of the word, we assume that "the" stock market is a separate "market" from "the" bond market. On the other hand, we assume that the NYSE and the NASDAQ (and the is-it-nineteen others) are all part of "the" stock market. It must hav...
by Rodc
Sun Feb 22, 2015 10:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"
Replies: 22
Views: 753

Re: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"

But an index fund is not holding "the market portfolio." It tries to hold a miniaturized replica of the market portfolio. No index fund exists that tries to be the total market portfolio. There are funds that try (and do a fine job) of holding miniature replicas of slices of the market po...
by Rodc
Sun Feb 22, 2015 10:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"
Replies: 22
Views: 753

Re: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCkQFjAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.chicagofed.org%2F~%2Fmedia%2Fpublications%2Feconomic-perspectives%2F1999%2Fep3q99-4-pdf.pdf&ei=5vLpVJuEEYOkgwT-jYTwBw&usg=AFQjCNE2-50NJ3k_TLVX0JQeG8mlid3t0w&sig...
by Rodc
Sun Feb 22, 2015 10:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"
Replies: 22
Views: 753

Re: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"

But an index fund is not holding "the market portfolio." It tries to hold a miniaturized replica of the market portfolio. No index fund exists that tries to be the total market portfolio. There are funds that try (and do a fine job) of holding miniature replicas of slices of the market po...
by Rodc
Sun Feb 22, 2015 10:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"
Replies: 22
Views: 753

Re: ? present value of soc sec and pension

Go to an insurance site. Find an insurance product that is close to each option. Get a quote. with a COLA on first $18,000 of up to 3% based on 50% of the CPI Are you in MA? I'm curious why you asked this, Rodc. Are MA residents in some sort of unique situation? MA state pensions behave this way (o...
by Rodc
Sun Feb 22, 2015 9:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ? present value of soc sec and pension
Replies: 37
Views: 2809

Re: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"

In MPT the market portfolio is the cap weighted portfolio of all risky assets and it is assumed* that the tangency portfolio is the MP. Are you meaning to say that MPT assumes that, or do you mean that the internet assumes that? I don't see where MPT assumes that the tangency portfolio is the cap w...
by Rodc
Sun Feb 22, 2015 9:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"
Replies: 22
Views: 753

Re: John Bogle on International Investing

Steve Dunn's remarks about international vs. domestic investments (and slice & dice) are interesting in regards to this discussion, originally found at: http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/t/162377.aspx ORDER OF IMPORTANCE IN MANAGING ONE'S FINANCIAL AFFAIRS: As a rather sluggi...
by Rodc
Sun Feb 22, 2015 9:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle on International Investing
Replies: 184
Views: 14558

Re: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"

I think the primary difference is different than you suggest. In MPT the market portfolio is the cap weighted portfolio of all risky assets and it is assumed* that the tangency portfolio is the MP. That is everything not the riskless asset. So it includes bonds to start, but also real estate. Then t...
by Rodc
Sun Feb 22, 2015 9:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contradictory use of the term "Market Portfolio"
Replies: 22
Views: 753

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

I suggest there is a greater perception of loss to a retiree who is withdrawing money. It is not just "perception of loss". If you sell shares they are gone, they do not recover. The loss is locked in and real. Agree there is also a perception issue s not all shares are sold. Just comment...
by Rodc
Sun Feb 22, 2015 7:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 127
Views: 13026

Re: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate

History shows that over 30-40 years, stocks are almost certainly going to be the best investment. Why would I intentionally deviate from that advice when I am in retirement? If you are going to hold for 30 years and not sell that is one thing. If you are simply living off dividends that is one thin...
by Rodc
Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When 60/40 just isn't appropriate
Replies: 127
Views: 13026

Re: Prom budget for teenage girl?

This is 2015. Do kids really still watch TV?


Yes.

On their phone or tablet.
by Rodc
Sat Feb 21, 2015 8:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Prom budget for teenage girl?
Replies: 82
Views: 4615

Re: What % of your gross income do you spend on mortgage/ren

About 6%, 8% including property tax.
by Rodc
Sat Feb 21, 2015 7:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What % of your gross income do you spend on mortgage/rent?
Replies: 155
Views: 8551

Re: Car Battery in Unusual Cold

Sorry you had to get jumped, but glad you got it done and no longer have to worry.
by Rodc
Sat Feb 21, 2015 5:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car Battery in Unusual Cold
Replies: 87
Views: 3677

Re: Prom budget for teenage girl?

Thanks guys for all the advice. Here there is just one prom that both juniors and seniors attend. Do some of you have separate junior and senior proms? Or are you just distinguishing between junior and senior year prom experiences? The actual event is actually at the school not some hotel and they ...
by Rodc
Sat Feb 21, 2015 2:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Prom budget for teenage girl?
Replies: 82
Views: 4615

Re: Prom budget for teenage girl?

I would say a limo for group transportation is cheap. Plus all your own cars get to stay in your garage and are no where near any teen-age drivers on prom night. Besides, do you want a teenage boy driving your daughter around that night without her girlfriends? And likely drinking? For this reason ...
by Rodc
Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:58 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Prom budget for teenage girl?
Replies: 82
Views: 4615

Re: Car Battery in Unusual Cold

likegarden wrote:Having a failed battery nowadays is easy, have a cell phone now, call the wrecker who will restart the car, then drive to a place like Sears to get a new one installed instantaneously.


Except the OP lives in the boonies so this will not work.
by Rodc
Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:25 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car Battery in Unusual Cold
Replies: 87
Views: 3677

Re: ? present value of soc sec and pension

The value of $X a year with and without COLA is substantial. So not sure your estimates above are very accurate. I don't see the point of this at all. You have your basics covered by SS and other fixed income sources. You have some amount in investments to cover discretionary expenses. Set an alloca...
by Rodc
Sat Feb 21, 2015 10:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ? present value of soc sec and pension
Replies: 37
Views: 2809

Re: Thoughts on replacing tires?

For background, we drive the car less than 5,000 miles a year, possibly less than 3,000 miles. It is kept outside and is exposed to the elements. We live near Philadelphia, so the climate is varied. No need to pay for premium tires, or extra long life tires. They'll time out rather than wear out. A...
by Rodc
Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:42 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thoughts on replacing tires?
Replies: 60
Views: 3398

Re: Prom budget for teenage girl?

100 max for EVERYTHING which they want to include dress, shoes, makeup, dinner. Really I would want it to come out of her regular allowance. But I would be talked into giving an extra 100 for a special event. Luckily there are stores that have niceish/formalish dresses for under 50$ I have never pa...
by Rodc
Sat Feb 21, 2015 9:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Prom budget for teenage girl?
Replies: 82
Views: 4615

Re: ? present value of soc sec and pension

Go to an insurance site. Find an insurance product that is close to each option. Get a quote.

with a COLA on first $18,000 of up to 3% based on 50% of the CPI


Are you in MA?
by Rodc
Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ? present value of soc sec and pension
Replies: 37
Views: 2809

Re: Risk of Rebalancing

I thought, how worse can it get when you are already at the bottom?


When markets are tanking how does one know today is the bottom and from here it is all up hill?
by Rodc
Thu Feb 19, 2015 9:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk of Rebalancing
Replies: 63
Views: 3693

Re: Car Battery in Unusual Cold

Regardless of how new or old your battery is having a good set of jumper cables in the trunk - 16' long and at least 6 gauge IMO - is as important as having a tire jack. Yep. It has been some years since I last had to jump my car, but I did give some guy standing out in the cold with a dead car a j...
by Rodc
Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car Battery in Unusual Cold
Replies: 87
Views: 3677

Re: 3-1/3% SWR = you can manage it by intuitive household bu

His paper also talks about the basis of the study that ked to an acceptable portfolio life with the stipulated WR. He used a compound return rate of 10.3% for equities, 5.1% return for IT Treasuries and 3% inflation. Any of that sound like today's reality or expectations? And that leads to a deep p...
by Rodc
Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3-1/3% SWR = you can manage it by intuitive household budget
Replies: 40
Views: 3513

Re: Choosing a Backpack and other Gear for el Camino

When it comes time to replace your boots, try out trail runners. You'll like the low weight and added comfort. I have gone almost exclusively to trail runners. My nice leather boots I used to wear all the time for everything from easy day hikes to backpack now rarely used other than in snow. They a...
by Rodc
Thu Feb 19, 2015 8:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Choosing a Backpack and other Gear for el Camino
Replies: 71
Views: 4740

Re: Risk of Rebalancing

It works in bull markets too. If equities are going up and you're rebalancing, you're dumping stocks. The market goes up. You dump more. All of a sudden your portfolio has done worse than if you had just let it run. I have not read the article but it sounds like he is playing fast and loose with th...
by Rodc
Thu Feb 19, 2015 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk of Rebalancing
Replies: 63
Views: 3693
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