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Here appraisals are supposed to be full value with error bars no more than +/-10%. I doubt anyone can assess/appraise your house to better than +/- 10% because in part it depends on who you can entice to buy your home. It is not like going to a store and reading off the price. Sell this month get on...

It is also worth noting that not only can ability to survive risk be low when young but it also can go up with age. It might be harder to get back money lost if you are older, but if you have enough because you have been successful you might be able to do just fine even if you lose a bunch. I think ...

Here is something I did a few years ago. Historically it really has not mattered in the end. See graph number 3. http://home.comcast.net/~rodec/finance/papers/AgeInBonds.pdf Now it might psychologically matter. If an investment goes from $1000 to $10,000 in a fairly steady progress you feel great. I...

I'm planning for the instance where my kid has a legitimate interest in a particular subject (I didn't have such interest as a teenager) and there is an institution recognized as a leader in that discipline Could happen, but really at the undergrad level it is very rare that going in a kid is so sp...

Good luck getting over 3 years out of a battery, seems the general consensus is they are not made like they use to be. You can go to a local chain automotive parts store and they can check your battery and alternator. I don't ever pretend to be an automotive expert, but am very impressed by the kno...

I just put two kids through college... University of Kansas... about $15k a year including room and board... $60k total for each of their degrees... And that's with sorority fees... Could be done for less. There should be a simple college admission test. "Are you willing to pay $200k for your ...

basically thrown your hands up and concluded "I give up, we don't know anything, just put 50% in stocks and 50% bonds." But I think you overstate the amount of uncertainty. It's not a complete opaque box about which nothing is known. I'm sorry you feel this way. It is not uncommon. Some p...

If the dividend yield doubled, back to historic levels of 6% say, then the price would drop to 50. Doesn't this suppose re does not get more profitable? If yield is down because rents are down (either per square foot when down or vacancy went up), and rents go back up, you could get a doubling of y...

I understand that, I should have mentioned my fund is Wellesley, which just maintains 36% stock in most cases. So, since I rebalance my portfolio as you suggest and a balanced fund does the same for you, for better or for worse, it is all the same thing (more or less). In a specific balanced fund t...

I confess that seems a little like the tail wagging the dog to me. Any estimates of stock returns and risk going forward are so likely to be hugely wrong for one thing that this approach seems more wishful thinking than actual sound planning. One thing you are missing is that, while there is great ...

One should focus on what is under your control. Set some more or less reasonable asset allocation between stocks and bonds (split those up if you wish into subasset classes) based on a broad long term view of the market, if long term prospects look poor save more than otherwise or lower expectation...

Jeff,

Appreciate your insights.

Good luck getting over 3 years out of a battery, seems the general consensus is they are not made like they use to be. You can go to a local chain automotive parts store and they can check your battery and alternator. I don't ever pretend to be an automotive expert, but am very impressed by the kno...

I try to use use economics to rule theories in ... and data to rule things out.

The graph is entirely misleading. The differences on the x-axis are totally meaningless. The range is all of 0.4%! Way below the level of noise. For all intents and purposes the SD of these portfolios is identical, they are all equal. The range on the y-axis is even more meaningless; it looks to be...

1) Still waiting for us to hear your brilliant insights explaining why the work on profitability is rubbish. The economic explanations which will also provide us the insights into why such investors as Graham and Dodd and others like Buffett also preached rubbish--because this is basically the stra...

I also don't ignore the risk of a 100% equity portfolio, and if you read and understood my post, it would be quite clear that if my portfolio value went down 50%, it would not affect my retirement income one bit. Sure my portfolio was down about 45% in 2008, but by 2011, it was back above where it ...

I've gotten really good service out of Interstate batteries http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstate_Batteries : Interstate Battery System of America, Inc., a.k.a. Interstate Batteries, is a privately owned company that markets automotive batteries manufactured by Johnson Controls through independen...

IMO, there is no "over-valued or "undervalued". Stocks have some expected future earnings and dividends, and the price you pay will determine the return you can expect from that future cash-flow. The higher the price, the lower the expected return. I suppose one could say that the ma...

In your shoes I personally would not have moved home. I love my parents and we got along fine. But I would not have moved home unless the situation was truly dire. I would have found a school I could afford and a place I could afford. In fact that is exactly what I did. As it turns out my almost 26 ...

90 years of data gives all of three 30-year data points. Rolling periods may give more numbers, good for making pretty scatter plots, but all of them are just remixes of three honestly independent data points (at best, as the the second is dependent on the particular history that led to point one, ...

The trouble that I have, and I expect others may as well, is that bold moves are psychologically hard to make. If my IPS states that I must adjust 3% out of stocks for each 1pt move in P/E10 above 23 (or add 3% for each move below 11), I can stomach those smaller changes. The challenge is that 3% i...

Then everything took a dump and people lost their shirts. The good news about the 2001 tech crash, just as with the 2008-2009 financial collapse, is that those that stayed in the broad market, even rebalanced, ended up regaining not only their shirt, but a pair of pants and maybe some shoes as well...

90 years of data gives all of three 30-year data points. Rolling periods may give more numbers, good for making pretty scatter plots, but all of them are just remixes of three honestly independent data points (at best, as the the second is dependent on the particular history that led to point one, ...

Valuation does not matter in the short term, but it does in the long term. But matters in what way? 1) It matters in your long term returns (or expectations, planning) going forward? 2) Or matters as far as what trading strategy one should use? That is, it allows you to employ some sort of allocati...

So far no. 1) you can't look at stocks in isolation, you must think about the portfolio as a whole. If stocks stink (high valuation) and other assets are even more over priced (say bonds have negative real yield) should you really be selling stocks to buy bonds? All stock valuation trading studies I...

As a fellow 3 kid Sienna owner... you'd be nuts to get a prius... any self esteem issues aside. My experience of vacation with 3 kids is - don't minimize that one week of driving as a good reason to keep the van! They'll drive you nuts in a little car. S One can rent a minivan for the one week of v...

The graph is entirely misleading. The differences on the x-axis are totally meaningless. The range is all of 0.4%! Way below the level of noise. For all intents and purposes the SD of these portfolios is identical, they are all equal. The range on the y-axis is even more meaningless; it looks to be ...

I may have missed it, but one thing missing or not given proper discussion is that in order to have a meaningful discussion you have to specify what you are discussing. Next 5 years or next 30 years? Lump sum invested today or periodic investing? If you are retired and drawing from your portfolio yo...

Not relevant to the PP, but: for all 30 year periods since 1972 This is ONE 30-year period (pretty much). 90 years of data gives all of three 30-year data points. Rolling periods may give more numbers, good for making pretty scatter plots, but all of them are just remixes of three honestly independe...

Most colleges provide low(ish) cost insurance of this sort. I would check with the school.

Best of luck.

Go conservative at 70%, team happy. C-office ok, but not impressed as you only met expectations, did not exceed them. Stay middle management, get squeezed next year, two years later in a mild downturn get laid off as you are only an ok middle manager and they are going leaner as someone in the C-off...

There was a well-publicized RBD on April 15th which many folks on the forum used to purchase equities. And if that someone had been sitting on the money since January waiting for that RBD to do so they only would have cost themselves ~6%... Yes, that's absolutely true. Don't wait for an RBD, but wh...

I have a friend whose boy friend suggested the 2 or 3 month thing some years ago, would have been $10k at the time. She said she did not want a ring so valuable that someone would be tempted to cut her finger off to steal it. Now there is a good rule of thumb (or finger). I bought a very nice sapphi...

Positive correlation, if I understand what you did, means that as the dollar strengthens, EAFE also strengthens vs US VL?

Seems backwards. I must be missing something.

Why LV rather than TSM which would seem the more natural comparison?

Age 6 or less: any hotel with a pool. :) Best age for a vacation is whatever age your kids are today's. :) It really depends on what you want to do. Any place with serious elevation gain works for me. :) My wife and kids like that, but like other things as well. Super touristy stuff like Disney Worl...

The difference one high quality fixed income vs another is generally pretty small. This is not a big worry area. Longer duration generally means more risk and more return (more yield for sure, but risk may show up if you need to sell before maturity). So, the shorter the duration that less you need ...

Wow, thanks for the responses everyone. You've given me some good general directions to pursue. After having re-read what I wrote, I see how the context could be misconstrued. Of course it's not a matter of him being ignorant or me attempting to treat him like a child; it's just that the prospect o...

I would look at the likelihood of getting tenure in each position. This. I don't know your field, but in general let's just say that tenure is far from certain. What is the likelyhood, in today's volatile employment market, that you will still be in the same position with the same company/employer ...

Nice.

... (I confess I am a little concerned that low yields on bonds has driven more into stocks than otherwise, and if yields rise that could be bad for stocks. But I rebalance and keep on keeping on...) I'm less concerned. Yields on bonds are not likely to rise unless the economy improves. A better ec...

Great fun and useful to boot. It is interesting to note that the more you stabilize the denominator the more you really have a one input model.

chaz wrote:

hazlitt777 wrote:It could be in a bubble. Stay diversified. Stocks, bonds and gold.

My gold is in DW's jewelry. Is that OK?

As is our precious stone collection...

The real price of the S&P 500 is about 75% of what it was in August 2000, Then I believe we are in a 75% bubble. Or if half of August 2000 was reasonable, maybe we are in a 50% bubble. I predict that at some point in the future the market will suffer a decline. :) :) (I confess I am a little co...

In the 2012 paper linked by BobK, after showing that present interest rate conditions make delay clearly advantageous for most people, Shoven and Slavov say: "we find little empirical evidence that actual claiming behavior is related to the actuarial advantage of delay. Indeed, most individual...

Careful, you might be told you are miserly skin flint. And it might even be true. I'm only half kidding. This can only work (financial planner or perhaps more to the point a marriage councilor) if you can honestly come in with an open mind that you too may need to change. If your mind is made up tha...

I am pretty unenthusiastic about bonds right now because of the high valuations and low yields. But I still am buying them as part of my diversification program. The investment equivalent of eating my spinach. Yeah, many of us don't have a lot of attractive options for (semi) safe assets. Bond fund...

At the very least I'd like to get to a point where I can sit him down and give him some options.

Bold added.

Is he a child? Is he incompetent? The wording is at best off in tone.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-09/maybe-past-performance-does-predict-your-savings-future.html In the above article the author describes a withdrawl strategy base on Shiller PE/10 with a larger draw down in years where the PE is low and a smaller withdrawl in years when the PE is high. We kn...

I have owned a rather modest slice (7.5%) more or less (four slices of that size for a nice round 30%) since about 2005. It has done rather well. Since I have several slices (TSM, SCV,REIT,ITSM,ISVC,TIPS and IntTreasuries as well) it is pretty likely one of them would have done well. In fact, I'll b...