Search found 11048 matches

by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too Much Indexing???
Replies: 44
Views: 3676

Re: Too Much Indexing???

But I think you can see with Malkiel's example of China A-Shares, passive investors over that period would've returned effectively nothing, while investors in active mutual funds would've averaged 10% Can you provide an article? I'd be interested in how that was computed as it seems to defy basic a...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2994

Re: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?

A simpler analysis would just look at peak earning age demographics in the US versus overall economic growth rate. If I recall, Bill McBride has done a fair bit of that---it predicted a 'headwind' for economic growth from 2005 to 2015 or so, due to the US baby bust 1968 to 1983 (there are far fewer...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Other Side, part 3
Replies: 16
Views: 2003

Re: The Other Side, part 3

Ideally any potential lump sum investment should be assessed on current valuations. The Wall Street Crash years were preceded by the Roaring 20's, when stocks doubled, doubled again and doubled yet again within a decade or so. Similar in the case of Japan's 1990 peak. Lumping in after such prior fa...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Other Side, part 3
Replies: 16
Views: 2003

Re: The Other Side, part 3

What do you mean--move from bonds to stock instead of cash to stock? What I suggested is that the standard approach to DCA is to put all the money in some interest bearing safe(ish) investment, might be bonds, might be CDs, whatever, but something that earns some return. Slowly from this stash fund...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too Much Indexing???
Replies: 44
Views: 3676

Re: Too Much Indexing???

But I think you can see with Malkiel's example of China A-Shares, passive investors over that period would've returned effectively nothing, while investors in active mutual funds would've averaged 10% Can you provide an article? I'd be interested in how that was computed as it seems to defy basic a...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too Much Indexing???
Replies: 44
Views: 3676

Re: Too Much Indexing???

I still think this 'efficient enough' idea is quite optimistic Two issues have to be true for me to benefit. 1) Efficiency is low 2) I find a way to find and exploit the inefficiency 2 will be true for Goldman et al. far before it becomes to true for me. Which is likely to restore 1 and eliminate 2...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you buy used cars like a Boglehead actually should?
Replies: 168
Views: 16012

Re: Do you buy used cars like a Boglehead actually should?

We only buy used cars from private parties. Typically higher mileage cars with all maintenance records. Our reasoning, which has worked fairly well over the years, is that people typically trade in cars with maintenance issues. Good quality cars that have been properly maintained are more like to b...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 6:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Assuming Retirement Withdrawal from Portfolio Value
Replies: 14
Views: 1751

Re: Assuming Retirement Withdrawal from Portfolio Value

The other issue is that the annuity calculator that cranks out $40k per year for a $700k SPIA is NOT inflation indexed--it is a fixed $40k per year not adjusted for inflation. The 4% recommendation assumes the payout is corrected for inflation, thus maintaining purchasing power over the 30 years. G...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 23
Views: 2994

Re: Will Demographics Be Destiny for Stocks and Bonds?

One thing here I wonder about is that to use the past to predict the future is you need the basic underlying market forces to be constant (more or less). If we have a growing middle class in the current third world, that might be a bigger driver than changing age structure. The main take away might ...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 5:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Assuming Retirement Withdrawal from Portfolio Value
Replies: 14
Views: 1751

Re: Assuming Retirement Withdrawal from Portfolio Value

That works for an insurance company because they can take money from folks who die young to pay folks to live long.

You don't get to do that.
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 5:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Other Side, part 3
Replies: 16
Views: 2003

Re: The Other Side, part 3

We have always known that sometimes DCA beats Lump sum. You can find particular starting points using US stocks as well where this is true. I suspect if you start with the US at the top of the tech bubble and lump vs DCA you get similar results. The real issue is which is more likely to work best? T...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 4:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too Much Indexing???
Replies: 44
Views: 3676

Re: Too Much Indexing???

I suspect that as long as a few hedge funds, mega wealthy investors, active funds, sovereign funds, and greedy people who want to beat the market exists there will be enough competition for markets to be efficient enough for indexing to continue to work well. And not only will we always have those f...
by Rodc
Sat Jun 27, 2015 4:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles Ellis - In Defense of Active Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 1804

Re: Charles Ellis - In Defense of Active Investing

I love it! Almost as good a tongue in cheek post as Ellis! Ha, you know I'm being semi-serious though Timeless rule of investing - you can't all do the same thing .. In the case of price-following, it would be like every car on the highway trying to coast on the car in front's slipstream Yes. I sus...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 26, 2015 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles Ellis - In Defense of Active Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 1804

Re: Charles Ellis - In Defense of Active Investing

I'm half convinced there's a conspiracy to get everyone into passive funds so the wealthy can buy into hedge funds and get back to the days of 30-40% returns My aim is to be wealthy enough to buy in by the time passive investing is pushing the 50% mark I love it! Almost as good a tongue in cheek po...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 26, 2015 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Most Economical Way to Handle the Lawn
Replies: 71
Views: 6627

Re: Most Economical Way to Handle the Lawn

Over the years we've tried to transition the perimeter of our yard to native plants and ground cover. I admire anyone who can do it successfully. A number of native plants in this cell phone photo from Tuesday shows that native plants can be stunning: http://i60.tinypic.com/25i9ate.jpg That is fabu...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 26, 2015 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a worker's increased PIA due to high earning years after FRA change Spousal Benefits?
Replies: 11
Views: 1150

Re: Can a worker's increased PIA due to high earning years after FRA change Spousal Benefits?

PIA = Primary Insurance Amount, a Social Security term of art. There is more information about this in the Bogleheads wiki: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Social_Security Another excellent and very worthwhile resource is Oblivious Investor's book Social Security Made Simple. It's a very lucid and c...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 26, 2015 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a worker's increased PIA due to high earning years after FRA change Spousal Benefits?
Replies: 11
Views: 1150

Re: Can a worker's increased PIA due to high earning years after FRA change Spousal Benefits?

What is a PIA?

Personal internet assistant?

That is what I need as I have no idea off hand what you are talking about. :)
by Rodc
Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Couples and money and compatibility
Replies: 38
Views: 4020

Re: Couples and money and compatibility

Started at category 2.5 and evolved to category 1.

Not always easy, but can be done if both parties have good intentions and at least somewhat open minds.

We are both better off for the evolution.
by Rodc
Fri Jun 26, 2015 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?
Replies: 89
Views: 11544

Re: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?

This is true more generally. If you work for a company that specializes in X and you specialize in Y, even if they need Y, it is hard to be fully accepted in the in to the Club which will tend to be reserved for those who specialize in X. My experience is that the company doesn't have to specialize...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 26, 2015 9:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?
Replies: 89
Views: 11544

Re: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?

The other moral of the story is to never work in software at a non-software company. It sucks. This is true more generally. If you work for a company that specializes in X and you specialize in Y, even if they need Y, it is hard to be fully accepted in the in to the Club which will tend to be reser...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 26, 2015 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?
Replies: 89
Views: 11544

Re: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?

The other moral of the story is to never work in software at a non-software company. It sucks. This is true more generally. If you work for a company that specializes in X and you specialize in Y, even if they need Y, it is hard to be fully accepted in the in to the Club which will tend to be reser...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 26, 2015 5:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 7967

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

If anyone's not used Research Affiliates' excellent site, it gives estimated 10-year real returns on a range of asset classes Whether it proves to be right or wrong, it's essentially the same process AQR and others have used to forecast weak returns from US equities and bonds .. So it could be some...
by Rodc
Fri Jun 26, 2015 5:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth aspiring to get more?
Replies: 131
Views: 16846

Re: Is it worth aspiring to get more?

I still think there is a big difference between someone who may well live another 40 years and while they have enough, more still has some value and someone with the same amount and gets the message you will live only 6 more months. I would retire now if I knew I was going to die in 6 months but I ...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 7967

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

These articles always leave me wondering one question: how long these "low returns" are supposed to last? I wouldn't be surprised if we had 1%-2% real return in stocks and 0% in bonds over the final 50 years of my life (assuming I make it that long). The only thing I can do about it is cu...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?
Replies: 78
Views: 8684

Re: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?

Here's an interesting case. I went back to December 1999 when Shiller PE was 44.19. So I used 1/PE10 (0.02262955, 0.20) for stocks. I've read that, in 1999, 30-year TIPS had real YTM = 4%. So I used (0.0400, 0.00) for bonds. Here is the output of the gordoni2's python script: stocks: gm=1.0222 am=1...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles Ellis - In Defense of Active Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 1804

Re: Charles Ellis - In Defense of Active Investing

Although it may be temptingly easy for casual observers to fault active managers by focusing all too narrowly on the disappointing results and high fees experienced by naive but ever-hopeful investors, the splendid benefits rendered directly and indirectly by active managers clearly deserve much mo...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 26355

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

Rodc commented on the Business Insider article chart I posted: "Hey, with two data points you can extrapolate to anywhere you want! :)" Sure you can, at least in this case, and still arrive at a reasonable conclusion. When looking at the long term value of the Shiller P/E, I can see the C...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 7967

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

But my pay is up by a factor of 4 ^ This isn't a "problem" must people have :wink: Joking aside, you make a fair point. Not to derail the thread, but that is another disadvantage of compressed earning (the major disadvantage being the tax structure). This another reason to start investing...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth aspiring to get more?
Replies: 131
Views: 16846

Re: Is it worth aspiring to get more?

No one is talking about regret AFTER you're dead... Regret happens when the doctor tells you that the reason you have trouble breathing is because you have Stage IV cancer and six months to live. Here's a question to ask yourself... If you were told you had 6 months to live, would you choose to con...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 7967

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

These articles always leave me wondering one question: how long these "low returns" are supposed to last? http://mathieu.bouville.name/finance/when-does-long-term-start/Bouville-return_envelope.png "Over five years there is a 90% probability for the return to be between −6% and +20% ...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did 2008 change your investing strategy?
Replies: 58
Views: 4738

Re: Did 2008 change your investing strategy?

Something like 5 years later I moved to 60/40 from 70/30, but mostly due to changes in circumstances like less need to take on risk in hopes of greater returns and less ability to take on risk. Not that 2008 is not still part of my conscious and unconscious thinking. I haven't lived through a crash,...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook
Replies: 108
Views: 7967

Re: AQR/Asness: Stocks, Bonds: Bleak Outlook

I did not start investing yesterday. The stocks and bonds I hold today may in fact provide low returns from here out for quite a while. But most have already have appreciated quite well as they were purchased little by little over the last 25 years or so. My plan did not require very high returns an...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth aspiring to get more?
Replies: 131
Views: 16846

Re: Is it worth aspiring to get more?

No one is talking about regret AFTER you're dead... Regret happens when the doctor tells you that the reason you have trouble breathing is because you have Stage IV cancer and six months to live. Here's a question to ask yourself... If you were told you had 6 months to live, would you choose to con...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What percent of your spending is "basic" and what percent is "discretionary"?
Replies: 42
Views: 3840

Re: What percent of your spending is "basic" and what percent is "discretionary"?

In other words I suppose one could say we can adjust the answer by adjusting the definitions of basic and discretionary. What basic is is discretionary. As things exist now I will enter retirement with a small mortgage payment. I could in principle sell and buy elsewhere and have no mortgage (and e...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 26355

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

Here's a noteworthy passage from the article: "Equities have typically only suffered negative real returns over a given five-year period when the Shiller P/E at the beginning of the period was above 26x (and clearly good real returns when the Shiller P/E had fallen below 13x). http://www.busin...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What percent of your spending is "basic" and what percent is "discretionary"?
Replies: 42
Views: 3840

Re: What percent of your spending is "basic" and what percent is "discretionary"?

The original question seemed framed in the context of retirement planning. When I retire in the not too distant future our expenses will be very different from today. Today I am saving for retirement and college. I am paying into social security, etc. I am feeding two teenage boys. I am sending two ...
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 26355

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

awval999 wrote:I'm getting a bit anxious; my IPS states to move to Age+10 in bonds when P/E 10>30.


What measure of bond valuation does your IPS use?

What does it say if bonds are also over priced?
by Rodc
Thu Jun 25, 2015 6:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Other Side, part 2
Replies: 41
Views: 5677

Re: The Other Side, part 2

Rodc, I defined dollar cost averaging in this case as periodically investing an equal amount at the beginning of every year (see first post). It doesn't assume that the person had money elsewhere. I was thinking more in terms of people over their working years, putting, say, $1000 of their previous...
by Rodc
Wed Jun 24, 2015 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Other Side, part 2
Replies: 41
Views: 5677

Re: The Other Side, part 2

How did you define dollar (or yen) cost averaging? It seems to me to be fair, you have to start with some amount that is equal in both cases. Say $100,000 dollars. Say you want to look at 10 years so put in $10,000 per year into stocks vs all into stocks. But the balance has to be invested in someth...
by Rodc
Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mess on hardwood floor installation
Replies: 8
Views: 1292

Re: Mess on hardwood floor installation

edge wrote:You can replace your subfloor with plywood. The installer should have lifted some carpet to look at the subfloor prior to ordering.


Or just put ply over existing subfloor if you don't mind losing a little room height.
by Rodc
Tue Jun 23, 2015 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean to be FIRE?
Replies: 30
Views: 3022

Re: What does it mean to be FIRE?

Even though his thread got deleted, the Millennial Moola guy got me thinking about what it means to be FIRE. He edited his blog to show that his portfolio can reasonably be expected to produce about $9,300 in income (at a 4% withdrawal rate). He intends to tutor enough so that he can live on $16,00...
by Rodc
Tue Jun 23, 2015 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean to be FIRE?
Replies: 30
Views: 3022

Re: What does it mean to be FIRE?

Did not see the thread. Any chance he is a dirt bag climber? That would be one way to be FIRE on $16,000 a year. :) I remember taking a year off between high school and college and living in a camper I built and traveling all over the country. Great year. I told everyone I was retired. :) There may ...
by Rodc
Tue Jun 23, 2015 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 218
Views: 20250

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

One big problem at the time was no one knew when and where it would bottom out. A LOT of government effort was poured into stopping the fall; it could have been a lot worse. If we all knew it was going to stop at -50% or so, and that it would come back up in a more or less timely fashion it would ha...
by Rodc
Tue Jun 23, 2015 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth aspiring to get more?
Replies: 131
Views: 16846

Re: Is it worth aspiring to get more?

TimeLord wrote: Dying before I can retire really isn't a big deal for me because along the way I have been able to do a lot of wonderful things in my life. If that's what you believe - OK. Here's a link to an interesting study: http://faculty.kfupm.edu.sa/COE/gutub/English_Misc/Retire1.htm Consider...
by Rodc
Tue Jun 23, 2015 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth aspiring to get more?
Replies: 131
Views: 16846

Re: Is it worth aspiring to get more?

In the context of this thread, I don't think that Dr. X was aspiring to get more money. He was serving his country and was proud of his career, academic, and interpersonal achievements. But his death is another reminder that even the best of us have a limited life span. Dr. X was in his late 50s, l...
by Rodc
Tue Jun 23, 2015 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?
Replies: 89
Views: 11544

Re: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?

I'm a former web developer, turned systems analyst and job hopping in my twenties was definitely the method I used to substantially up my pay. Every couple years (max), I was on to something more lucrative. I've now worked at seven companies, spanning all kinds of industries, holding nearly a dozen...
by Rodc
Tue Jun 23, 2015 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MacBook Pro Worth the money?
Replies: 79
Views: 7969

Re: MacBook Pro Worth the money?

My wife has used Macs and PC for years. She prefers a PC - easier to use, generally faster, the fact that they are cheaper does not enter into it - she'd opt for a PC even if the price was equal. She will use a MAC if an employer prefers it (currently the case), but prefers a PC which is what she cu...
by Rodc
Tue Jun 23, 2015 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wedding dress in Hawaii
Replies: 14
Views: 1249

Re: Wedding dress in Hawaii

It does not matter what the "locals" do.

It matters only what your son and the bride would prefer. Ask them.
by Rodc
Sat Jun 20, 2015 6:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just what is "management" and "exectutive" anyway
Replies: 14
Views: 2354

Re: Just what is "management" and "exectutive" anyway

You're splitting hairs.


Yes, that was the point. Thanks for splitting yours.
by Rodc
Fri Jun 19, 2015 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Diminished Value on Rental Car
Replies: 9
Views: 1483

Re: Diminished Value on Rental Car

It stinks, but then I suppose they really did have to pay someone to handle the paperwork associated with this accident. A pizza driver hit my car last year. Their insurance covered the cost of the repair and a rental car for about a week for me without any hassle. But I doubt they would have compe...

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