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by Rodc
Fri May 22, 2015 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Neighbor hired a surveyor. Should I be nervous?
Replies: 73
Views: 8649

Re: Neighbor hired a surveyor. Should I be nervous?

I thought we had a different relationship that's what stings the most. Maybe you did have a different relationship. If I were your neighbor, I wouldn't have responded the way you describe you would have responded, even if we were previously on good terms. That doesn't make your neighbor a pr*ck. Li...
by Rodc
Fri May 22, 2015 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much does social security factor into your retirement income?
Replies: 161
Views: 9520

Re: How much does social security factor into your retirement income?

IMHO, your view may be tainted by gross exposure to "negative longevity". Right. I once overheard an orthopedist or some such doctor telling someone in an airport that people should not run. Why all the runners he sees in his office have injuries! :oops: As an aside, many people who might...
by Rodc
Fri May 22, 2015 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much does social security factor into your retirement income?
Replies: 161
Views: 9520

Re: How much does social security factor into your retirement income?

While I hope to have enough that I wouldn't need SS, I fully expect it to still be there and still paying out near 100% for people like me (i.e. not a high enough earner or high enough net worth to get means tested out). Also, with my expenses and the spousal benefit, I expect SS to cover ~95% of o...
by Rodc
Thu May 21, 2015 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How 529 college savers invest.
Replies: 16
Views: 1565

Re: How 529 college savers invest.

I use an age based fund of index funds. So I am doing this the right way according to this article. But the mistake the article makes is it looks at this as if the investor only has one investment to fund college. Someone might factor in the fact that they have substantial investments outside the 52...
by Rodc
Thu May 21, 2015 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much does social security factor into your retirement income?
Replies: 161
Views: 9520

Re: How much does social security factor into your retirement income?

I'm 28, so any assumption about SS is just a big, hairy, audacious guess . The same goes for speculation about market returns, career progression, and whether I'll wake up tomorrow. I save 20% of gross, enjoy life, and cross my fingers. I'll let you know how it goes. :sharebeer Wise beyond your yea...
by Rodc
Thu May 21, 2015 2:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much does social security factor into your retirement income?
Replies: 161
Views: 9520

Re: How much does social security factor into your retirement income?

SS will be the smallest leg of my three legged stool. Then too my wife has a modest pension and SS coming as well, so really a five legged stool. All in SS is still the lowest amount of SS, pensions and investments, though all are large enough to be meaningful. Will SS still be the smallest after t...
by Rodc
Thu May 21, 2015 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage Payoff Calculation? Help!
Replies: 13
Views: 601

Re: Mortgage Payoff Calculation? Help!

I use the calculator built into windows for this exact problem. Start the calculator, click on View->Worksheets->Mortgage. Select the drop down and click on Term (years). I use the current mortgage balance as the "price", 0 for the "down payment", and put in the interest rate an...
by Rodc
Thu May 21, 2015 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predicting the Past
Replies: 2
Views: 289

Re: Predicting the Past

On the one hand yes. On the other hand once folks thought of SWR upwards of 10% and the original SWR study based on history showed it was more like 4%. All the computers in the world, and PhDs, won't be able to give us more than one significant digit (if that) so agree that all the work to refine th...
by Rodc
Thu May 21, 2015 8:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage Payoff Calculation? Help!
Replies: 13
Views: 601

Re: Mortgage Payoff Calculation? Help!

Have you tried to Google this? I haven't but it might work. You can peruse the financial functions in Excel or the equivalent. I don't recall off hand, but I think I have done just this sort of thing in years past. Or, just do a little trial and error with the mortgage calculator you have. Put in a ...
by Rodc
Tue May 19, 2015 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Target Allocations between equities and bonds - Is the reasoning sound?
Replies: 49
Views: 3345

Re: Target Allocations between equities and bonds - Is the reasoning sound?

From Buffet upstream: "It is true, of course, that owning equities for a day or a week or a year is far riskier (in both nominal and purchasing-power terms) than leaving funds in cash-equivalents. That is relevant to certain investors — say, investment banks — whose viability can be threatened ...
by Rodc
Sun May 17, 2015 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's so great about simplicity?
Replies: 103
Views: 6910

Re: What's so great about simplicity?

I think like others that simplicity will help many reduce mistakes. For example fiddling with things that over the years add up to performance chasing, fad chasing, which tends to lead to buy high and sell low too often. It also often leads to lower costs. None of this is guaranteed. FWIW: I do not ...
by Rodc
Sun May 17, 2015 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much does social security factor into your retirement income?
Replies: 161
Views: 9520

Re: How much does social security factor into your retirement income?

I figure I will get between 100% and 70% of what is promised. I expect to take it at age 66.5 and figure I will bridge the gap from retirement until 66.5 out of investments. I expect to retire between 62 and 65. Similarly I expect I will take my pension at age 65 and have to bridge the gap with my i...
by Rodc
Sun May 17, 2015 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I apply for manager's job or continue as a techie?
Replies: 145
Views: 9692

Re: Should I apply for manager's job or continue as a techie?

They might prefer someone who actually wants the job vs someone who only kind of sort of wants the job. If you apply now you will likely be a weaker candidate than if you had applied early,because it will be clear you don't really have the drive to go after the job. That said, best of luck however y...
by Rodc
Fri May 15, 2015 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Working Age population vs. stock purchases
Replies: 6
Views: 775

Re: Working Age population vs. stock purchases

You might try a search of the site. This is a frequent topic. I might note that as incomes rise in the developing world there could be a huge increase in buyers. Not to mention profits and thus dividends. I don't know, but from what you read the average boomer has very little savings/investments, so...
by Rodc
Fri May 15, 2015 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lightweight camping gear
Replies: 41
Views: 2675

Re: Lightweight camping gear

Tarps are great if you're experienced in site selection and different pitching techniques with your tarp. They're not as forgiving as a tent, which is an enclosed shelter - when it comes to wind and rain protection. Also, some people don't like tarps because creepy-crawlies can get on you since you...
by Rodc
Fri May 15, 2015 6:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I a Millionaire???
Replies: 53
Views: 6315

Re: Am I a Millionaire???

I don't think there is anything wrong multiple milestones. Nothing wrong with being proud/happy to have hit the million dollar networth milestone. Personally since I could easily turn my house into cash and move into an apartment, retirement community, nursing home, or to buy house/condo in a less e...
by Rodc
Fri May 15, 2015 6:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lightweight camping gear
Replies: 41
Views: 2675

Re: Lightweight camping gear

I'm a long distance hiker with a 8 lb summer base weight - here's what I recommend. Tent: http://www.tarptent.com Pack: http://www.ula-equipment.com Sleeping Bag: http://www.westernmountaineering.com I like the tarp tent, though wonder why not just use a tarp? Add a tree or hiking pole and some cor...
by Rodc
Fri May 15, 2015 5:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much can I spend on a car?
Replies: 157
Views: 8473

Re: How much can I spend on a car?

I was more or less in your shoes many years ago, though not living at home. I bought a 2 year old Accord 2 door hatchback. I suggest something similar (I note that a Civic today is the equivalent of the older Accords in size though many more bells and whistles). That said, finding a really good deal...
by Rodc
Tue May 12, 2015 6:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Philosophies of frugality.
Replies: 60
Views: 5783

Re: Philosophies of frugality.

My wife and I are very frugal. We drink water when we go out. In 20 years, I will not remember that coke. We will have a nice wine, however, as that actually adds to the experience of dining out if we are somewhere nice. . In my world, a very frugal person would never spend 7+ bucks on some liquid ...
by Rodc
Tue May 12, 2015 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Philosophies of frugality.
Replies: 60
Views: 5783

Re: Philosophies of frugality.

My wife hates to budget. So over time I gave up. Not worth fighting over. Instead, we use the pay your first method many here advocate above. Liquid funds sufficient to cover at least 6 months of expenses. Money goes in each month to modest pensions, not optional. Money goes into 401K each month plu...
by Rodc
Tue May 12, 2015 6:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I Hate Vacations
Replies: 113
Views: 9103

Re: I Hate Vacations

How about taking more three or four day weekends to do simply stuff? Take a couple of days whenever chores pile up or you have errands to run. Invite old friends or family you like to visit and hang out with them for a while. No need to make vacation a production. Personally I like vacations and my ...
by Rodc
Tue May 12, 2015 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lightweight camping gear
Replies: 41
Views: 2675

Re: Lightweight camping gear

If you want to go light I would suggest that it might be better to carry something like a sweatshirt I applaud you for suggesting "multi-use", a great way to save weight. But not a sweatshirt. They are typically cotton or cotton blend, and one general rule of backcountry travel is not to ...
by Rodc
Tue May 12, 2015 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lightweight camping gear
Replies: 41
Views: 2675

Re: Lightweight camping gear

On just a two day trip I won't have extra clothes for a pillow, but I could use a towel if I have one on a hand. I've used a sweatshirt before -- I can sleep on a hard surface, but like a half decent pillow. If you want to go light I would suggest that it might be better to carry something like a s...
by Rodc
Mon May 11, 2015 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International - Who really is at 40%
Replies: 93
Views: 6611

Re: International - Who really is at 40%

renue74 wrote:I see a lot of talk to "going to 40%" for International stock fund allocation, but who is there? Is now a good time to do this?


Not me.

I'm 45% of stocks (or pretty close). 60/40 stocks/bonds.

Is this a good time? Maybe.
by Rodc
Mon May 11, 2015 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lightweight camping gear
Replies: 41
Views: 2675

Re: Lightweight camping gear

Tent stakes (or could use bags depending on condition) You already mentioned you tend to do overnighters with an eye on the weather. In my experience, you don't need tent stakes (other than the ones for the rain fly). Put your pack in the tent, that and your weight is enough. You can even use rocks...
by Rodc
Mon May 11, 2015 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lightweight camping gear
Replies: 41
Views: 2675

Re: Lightweight camping gear

Definitely want a headlamp. Weighs almost nothing and works great (you don't need a high end one, the basic LED headlamps work fine). Never know when you need to get up and deal with something at night, or get to campsite after dark because trail was harder than expected, whatever. I consider this a...
by Rodc
Mon May 11, 2015 5:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lightweight camping gear
Replies: 41
Views: 2675

Re: Lightweight camping gear

After looking around a bit, I'm leaning towards the ALPS Zephyr (Zenith) 2 person tent. I think the extra space will be a nice plus, especially if my daughter gets interested when she gets older. The tent is 4.5 lbs packed, but packs down to 18x6" so a similar pack size to many of the solo ten...
by Rodc
Mon May 11, 2015 5:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lightweight camping gear
Replies: 41
Views: 2675

Re: Lightweight camping gear

Agree with the doc, reducing the packing list helps a lot. For example carry high density no-cook food and leave the stove and fuel behind. Carry a piece of lightweight plastic sheet and some cord to make a shelter when needed, otherwise just use it for a ground cloth and sleep sans tent. I have don...
by Rodc
Wed May 06, 2015 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If I Knew Then What I Know Now
Replies: 61
Views: 12140

Re: If I Knew Then What I Know Now

Man, I'm going to steal that, give it to my kids and tell them I wrote it! Maybe better to tell them you wrote, they might not listen to Dad. :) (though we cover this ground from time to time in the hopes it sinks in and they are at least a little impressed that I have managed to follow a path more ...
by Rodc
Wed May 06, 2015 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1929 was a great year to buy stocks
Replies: 92
Views: 5054

Re: 1929 was a great year to buy stocks

Interesting. But it shouldn't come as a total surprise. As other threads here have explained, PE10 -- the best predictor we have -- still explains only 40% of the 10-year return. Evidently, it's not a perfect predictor for the 30-year return either. Likely at longer time scales it predicts less tho...
by Rodc
Tue May 05, 2015 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pfau, Kitces, & Target-Date Fund glide paths
Replies: 29
Views: 2641

Re: Pfau, Kitces, & Target-Date Fund glide paths

I didn't read the paper, but I read Kitces's blog about it (can't find a link) and it really didn't seem they were saying to use a stock-increasing glide path. Instead they considered what happens when you replace an SPIA(+stocks) with bonds(+stocks). The rising glide path is merely an artifact of ...
by Rodc
Tue May 05, 2015 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pfau, Kitces, & Target-Date Fund glide paths
Replies: 29
Views: 2641

Re: Pfau, Kitces, & Target-Date Fund glide paths

I didn't read the paper, but I read Kitces's blog about it (can't find a link) and it really didn't seem they were saying to use a stock-increasing glide path. Instead they considered what happens when you replace an SPIA(+stocks) with bonds(+stocks). The rising glide path is merely an artifact of ...
by Rodc
Mon May 04, 2015 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car every 5 years instead of 10?
Replies: 129
Views: 9837

Re: Consumer Reports on leasing vs. buying

Consumer reports had an article some years ago on this, and I suspect things are little changed. Rodc: This may be the article: Pros and Cons of Leasing a Car Best wishes. Taylor Thanks. That is an update on the one I read which was further back. A good topic to bring back every few years for them ...
by Rodc
Mon May 04, 2015 5:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will you buy self-driving car?
Replies: 235
Views: 9148

Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

10 to 20 years from now I might really need one and will be grateful to be able to buy one.

By then all the bugs will be worked out and the price will have normalized.

A nice electric scooter was a godsend for my mother and her ability to function independently. This will be even better.
by Rodc
Mon May 04, 2015 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pfau, Kitces, & Target-Date Fund glide paths
Replies: 29
Views: 2641

Re: Pfau, Kitces, & Target-Date Fund glide paths

I didn't read the paper, but I read Kitces's blog about it (can't find a link) and it really didn't seem they were saying to use a stock-increasing glide path. Instead they considered what happens when you replace an SPIA(+stocks) with bonds(+stocks). The rising glide path is merely an artifact of ...
by Rodc
Mon May 04, 2015 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car every 5 years instead of 10?
Replies: 129
Views: 9837

Re: New car every 5 years instead of 10?

Unless you pay 100% cash buying and keeping a car for only 10 years saves you no money. You typically need to keep it 13-15 years AND have no major repairs to realize an advantage over leasing. Consumer reports had an article some years ago on this, and I suspect things are little changed. Which is...
by Rodc
Mon May 04, 2015 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pfau, Kitces, & Target-Date Fund glide paths
Replies: 29
Views: 2641

Re: Pfau, Kitces, & Target-Date Fund glide paths

The converse to what RodC pointed out above is that is that spending initially out of the stable side of a portfolio doesn't precipitate financial Armageddon within the limits of the models. So it seems like a reasonable option some people might consider. I hope it is clear I agree. I even gave an ...
by Rodc
Sun May 03, 2015 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pfau, Kitces, & Target-Date Fund glide paths
Replies: 29
Views: 2641

Re: Pfau, Kitces, & Target-Date Fund glide paths

On Wade's paper: I suggest these results do not say what most seem to think they say. First, given their "market expectations data" their 4% and 5% withdrawal rates are so high that the failure rates are such that all allocations are crazy bad. The best is a success rate (for 4%, worse of ...
by Rodc
Sat May 02, 2015 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car every 5 years instead of 10?
Replies: 129
Views: 9837

Re: Dealer hassling

One factor I have not seen mentioned is the waste of time selecting a new car, hassling with dealer(s) over price, and then the dealer and government paperwork plus getting used to new car gadgets. It is a primary reason I will keep my old car as long as it fits my needs. Best wishes. Taylor Not fo...
by Rodc
Sat May 02, 2015 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel on Smart Beta/Factor Investing ... times 4
Replies: 21
Views: 1711

Re: Malkiel on Smart Beta/Factor Investing ... times 4

Fama himself takes the position that there is hidden risk in small stocks and value stocks. Hidden means no way to quantify the risk, so no way to do the analysis. You can infer the hidden risk from performance assuming the EMH is true. If you do that and plug that inferred risk into the analysis t...
by Rodc
Sat May 02, 2015 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What about this rebalancing strategy?
Replies: 5
Views: 712

Re: What about this rebalancing strategy?

Every study ever done shows that it just does not matter very much and which scheme is best is simply a matter of random luck over the time period studied. The amount of money moved in rebalancing is just too small to matter much. The moves one scheme to another are often not timed all that much dif...
by Rodc
Fri May 01, 2015 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can you see the Mayweather fight for less than $99?
Replies: 39
Views: 3525

Re: Can you see the Mayweather fight for less than $99?

vtjon wrote:There was an article the other day that many of the Buffalo Wild Wings locations were not getting the fight due to the cost. I think the article quoted $5100 per location.


Paper today said $30 times the official capacity of the place.
by Rodc
Fri May 01, 2015 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel on Smart Beta/Factor Investing ... times 4
Replies: 21
Views: 1711

Re: Malkiel on Smart Beta/Factor Investing ... times 4

The whole point of EMH based models is that any additional expected return is accompanied by equivalent risk, so the expected risk-adjusted return of every portfolio is identical (Assuming you are mean-variance optimal). I think the parenthetical comment is not correct, though the general point is....
by Rodc
Fri May 01, 2015 10:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car every 5 years instead of 10?
Replies: 129
Views: 9837

Re: New car every 5 years instead of 10?

(Tires alone are probably pushing 2k assuming you get ~30k out of them and drive 12/yr. Don't know about anyone else, but I routinely get at least twice that mileage out of tires. And I buy mid-priced tires, not all that expensive. Are you driving a BMW/Lexus/MB/.. with the 18" low profile tir...
by Rodc
Fri May 01, 2015 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do REITs really offer effective portfolio diversification?
Replies: 108
Views: 9133

Re: Do REITs really offer effective portfolio diversificatio

Although a REIT trades as a stock, that description doesn't sound like a typical equity. Is any other business required to pay out almost all income to its shareholders as taxable dividends? That is a good point. A total bond etf trades as a stock. Does that make it a stock or even stock-like? (Yes...
by Rodc
Fri May 01, 2015 6:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement glide path becoming a cliff
Replies: 8
Views: 1683

Re: Retirement glide path becoming a cliff

What are your expenses? Needs and desires? It would appear that unless you have high needs you are in great shape. My father taught at a small technical college, not unlike a community college, after retiring and loved it once he got over the fact that some significant fraction were not prepared and...
by Rodc
Fri May 01, 2015 6:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Value of personal time
Replies: 24
Views: 1990

Re: Value of personal time

I value you my time much more highly than you do, though not always rationally. That is some of my cost trades off don't make sense. I value my time at more than my salary because at this point in time I have more money than spare time and I have lots of interests that I could spend time on. I used ...
by Rodc
Fri May 01, 2015 6:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Too late for career change/worth it?
Replies: 44
Views: 5832

Re: Too late for career change/worth it?

I cannot speak to your career possibilities. However, to answer your question about whether it is "too late" to go back to school at age 29, the answer is a resounding NO. I went back when I was 35 for a grad degree. I work with three guys right now who are all back in school going for a ...
by Rodc
Fri May 01, 2015 6:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car every 5 years instead of 10?
Replies: 129
Views: 9837

Re: New car every 5 years instead of 10?

(Tires alone are probably pushing 2k assuming you get ~30k out of them and drive 12/yr. Don't know about anyone else, but I routinely get at least twice that mileage out of tires. And I buy mid-priced tires, not all that expensive. Again the general point is that you pay less with depreciation with...
by Rodc
Fri May 01, 2015 6:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do I have any recourse against home improvement company?
Replies: 21
Views: 1999

Re: Do I have any recourse against home improvement company?

I think there is no hope in going after the contractor for something done years ago and which you acknowledged and accepted at the time. I bet you can get this fixed by simply using treads of different thickness to adjust the height of each step. Using some combination of 1/2 inch, 3/4 inch, 1 inch...

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