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Re: Long term return forecast

If, in fact, low returns augers low inflation, then buying non-inflation indexed SPIAs would be cheaper than having to get an inflation rider.

This might help with SWRs?
by Raybo
Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term return forecast [Research Affil. Expected returns]
Replies: 33
Views: 2284

Re: Long term return forecast

I have 2 related questions:

Does the prediction of low returns going forward infer anything about inflation expectations?

What, if anything, would a low inflation future mean for sustainable withdrawl rates?
by Raybo
Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term return forecast [Research Affil. Expected returns]
Replies: 33
Views: 2284

Re: Dry Powder

So, let's say you have X% of your assets in "dry powder." A dip comes and you buy stocks. You now have less/no dry powder. How do you replenish your dry powder? Do you sell stocks when they rise? Sell bonds? Change your allocation? With the exception of the first use of dry powder, the res...
by Raybo
Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dry Powder
Replies: 49
Views: 3520

Re: Retired, my viewpoint has changed again.

Someone (Suzy O?) referred to money as freedom. That is what I have to remember. I have the freedom to relax and not be encumbered by day to day worries. I should not look inward and "small", but outward and explore all that is possible. It should be fun. Maybe time to change your usernam...
by Raybo
Thu Oct 16, 2014 7:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retired, my viewpoint has changed again.
Replies: 22
Views: 3151

Re: Couch Surfing

Again, not the lottery I would want to win. Just to secure the upside of a nice chat. I'm curious. Do you drive a car? Fly in airplanes? Eat food at restaurants? Take public transit? Walk out in public? Or, does your "death vs nice chat" outlook on life only apply to those things you've n...
by Raybo
Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Couch Surfing
Replies: 90
Views: 5239

Re: Couch Surfing

leonard wrote:Certainly, we don't need to experience sleeping in a strangers house in order to have an opinion about it - do we.


Have all the (uninformed) opinion you like. Just don't expect others to respect it.
by Raybo
Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:47 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Couch Surfing
Replies: 90
Views: 5239

Re: Couch Surfing

We all know that risk is a trade off of return vs loss. If you don't want to take the risk of couchsurfing, don't. But, to continue to insist that the risk isn't worth it without ever doing it is a broken record. Don't want to couchsurf? Don't do it. No one should take on risk they don't want to. Bu...
by Raybo
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Couch Surfing
Replies: 90
Views: 5239

Re: What Do You Keep In Your Bank Safe Deposit Box?

I'm just curios as to what people keep in their Bank Safe Deposit Boxes. I keep my birth certificate, passport, additional copies of my driver's license and state ID & SS card. I keep a digital back up of of all of my scanned documents on an encrypted external hard drive. I also keep family jew...
by Raybo
Mon Oct 13, 2014 2:42 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Do You Keep In Your Bank Safe Deposit Box?
Replies: 39
Views: 2571

Re: Couch Surfing

That is how I would view the "horror" stories about couchsurfing (or hitch hiking, for that matter). I have never had anything close to a threatening experience in over 10 years of couchsurfing on 3 continents. In fact, many of my memorable interactions with people have come as a result. ...
by Raybo
Fri Oct 10, 2014 9:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Couch Surfing
Replies: 90
Views: 5239

Re: Couch Surfing

I've only heard of this from all the horror stories in the news over the years (especially for females staying with males....). I'm surprised it still goes on.....but then again - I still occasionally see hitch-hikers out there. Family from England was visiting and we took them to Yosemite. In thei...
by Raybo
Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:42 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Couch Surfing
Replies: 90
Views: 5239

Re: Couch Surfing

I've been hosted close to 50 times via both couchsurfing and Warmshowers. Virtually all my experiences have been enjoyable and I've never felt unwelcome or unsafe. While I often cook a meal for my hosts, I generally offer a meal out though almost always a meal or two is provided. Many of my best tra...
by Raybo
Thu Oct 09, 2014 4:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Couch Surfing
Replies: 90
Views: 5239

Re: Author Advice - Advantages/Disadvantages of Co-author

I have written 2 (computer) books, long ago now. The first, a flop, had no editor and I had no agent. The second, a commercial success, had an excellent editor and I had an agent. Both made a huge difference. Publishing is a business. You are a novice. You will get fleeced if you do it without exper...
by Raybo
Tue Sep 23, 2014 5:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Author Advice - Advantages/Disadvantages of Co-author
Replies: 18
Views: 1085

Re: buying a house in france

You don't say how much is involved, but one way would be to put dollars in a Charles Schwab Checking Account and then use the debit card they give you to take Euros out of an ATM in France (no F/X fees and ATM fee reimbursed (up to a limit each month)) and deposit them in a French bank. There are ob...
by Raybo
Sat Sep 06, 2014 1:53 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: buying a house in france
Replies: 15
Views: 1621

Re: Help out family without compromising my own retirement?

If you can't bear up emotionally, you might offer to buy the some basic foodstuffs, such as, rice, potatoes, vegetables, etc and demand that they cook their own meals at home.

It is hard to argue that providing someone with food and shelter isn't doing enough.
by Raybo
Fri Aug 29, 2014 4:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help out family without compromising my own retirement?
Replies: 72
Views: 5882

Re: Do Bogleheads worry about institutional risk?

Like all risk, institutional risk can be hedged at a cost. The costs include more management time, more records to follow, more logins/passwords to follow, and possible difficulty in reacting to market conditions due to having the wrong amount of money in the wrong fund manager in the wrong kind of ...
by Raybo
Thu Aug 28, 2014 11:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do Bogleheads worry about institutional risk?
Replies: 33
Views: 1796

Re: Only need $315k non-retirement $ to retire at Age 43?

Gambler wrote: (if I avg 6%/yr)


Constant compounded returns always look good. Unfortunately, that isn't how the world works.

You still need a Plan B in case your things don't go as the spreadsheet predicts.
by Raybo
Thu Aug 28, 2014 11:13 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Only need $315k non-retirement $ to retire at Age 43?
Replies: 36
Views: 5407

Re: Copyright question

When I got paid, I created computer programming courses that contained dozens, sometimes hundreds, of slides. I also created complete video training courses that came with detailed manuals. The manuals were copyright noticed, could be purchased separately from me and were available to be licensed fo...
by Raybo
Wed Aug 27, 2014 12:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Copyright question
Replies: 27
Views: 1533

Re: Establishing "Small Business" and Cheating IRS?

Small business tax returns have to be reported on a separate form. It isn't something that can be hidden among other, general, numbers. The computers can easily determine that such forms have disappeared from someone's return. Once a human looks at it, the "dodge" will be obvious from lack...
by Raybo
Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:19 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Establishing "Small Business" and Cheating IRS?
Replies: 11
Views: 1156

Re: How I beat Indexing... in 1 hour

In a store today, I took 4 pennies out of a cup next to the register to help me pay a 99 cent bill, a quick 4%!

And, I didn't deplete the cup. If I go back every day and make the same 4%, I can double my SWR!
by Raybo
Tue Aug 26, 2014 4:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I beat Indexing... in 1 hour
Replies: 71
Views: 11850

Re: How would one analyze the claim "American Funds Outperfo

Due to needing a broker to hold brokered CDs I had when I moved, I briefly had an Edward Jones account. When the sales person saw my portfolio, I got a lot of American Funds outperform propaganda. A cursory examination showed that they were comparing against the S&P500. I'm guessing that that wa...
by Raybo
Mon Aug 25, 2014 3:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How would one analyze the claim "American Funds Outperform"
Replies: 4
Views: 730

Re: [If over 50] Do you prepare for long term care

I had LTCi for a while, but then the inevitable premium increases started coming. After the second one, I bailed out.

It was a minimal policy and I didn't want to start paying more and more for less and less (no inflation rider).
by Raybo
Thu Aug 07, 2014 9:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [If over 50] Do you prepare for long term care
Replies: 43
Views: 2211

Re: Telephone Calls! Help!

We have a different problem. A machine calls, when we answer, there is silence on the line for a short period of time, and then a mechanical voice says "Good Bye." This happens several times a day. I've tried being silent or talking like a recorded message. The same thing results. Do anyon...
by Raybo
Thu Aug 07, 2014 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Telephone Calls! Help! [Stopping telemarketing calls]
Replies: 105
Views: 7564

Re: Marathon Running and Long-term Investing

My knees won't allow me to run any real distance any more. Instead, I take long bicycle rides and, not surprisingly, I see similarities between bicycle touring and investing: - Have a solid plan - Know what you can fix and what you can't - Train well - Be flexible enough so that when something goes ...
by Raybo
Wed Aug 06, 2014 3:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Marathon Running and Long-term Investing
Replies: 19
Views: 1776

Re: Eating while travelling

Eating is one of the more complicated parts of any vacation I plan. As a vegetarian, it can be hard to find places with enough choices so that I eat both a variety of foods and something filling. While I can eat out of grocery stores a bit, much of what I get at a grocery store needs to be prepared ...
by Raybo
Tue Aug 05, 2014 9:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Eating while travelling [Food Budget]
Replies: 26
Views: 2159

Re: What is your most memorable 1 week vacation?

This is too broad a question for me. I've had "best" weeks on a bike, by myself on foot, with friends, on a honeymoon, etc. The first one that comes to mind is the week I spent last July riding a bicycle from Invermere, BC up through Kootenay National Park and Jasper NP to Jasper on the Ic...
by Raybo
Sun Aug 03, 2014 6:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is your most memorable 1 week vacation?
Replies: 91
Views: 8147

Re: Pay a stay-at-home spouse, fund a solo-401k?

Let me start by saying I haven't looked at any regulations or done any research. So, this is just my opinion... My guess is that you can't legally pay your wife to take care of her own children. On the other hand, if she were to start a business (with all the legal licenses, etc) of watching childre...
by Raybo
Sat Jul 26, 2014 1:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay a stay-at-home spouse, fund a solo-401k?
Replies: 9
Views: 1272

Re: Qualified Longevity Annuity Contracts (QLACs)

How do QLACs factor into a Liability Matching Portfolio? Might they be used instead of or in combination with TIPS/IBonds? Especially if they can be inflation adjusted.
by Raybo
Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Qualified Longevity Annuity Contracts (QLACs)
Replies: 3
Views: 457

Re: Which kind of bike for recent retiree?

Pulling upwards on the pedals is a myth. Even the pros don't do it most of the time, the main exception is a flat out sprint. While I don't pull up most of the time, on hard uphills (say Fredrick Street between Carl and Clayton ), I find pulling up on the pedals to help me keep up enough speed not ...
by Raybo
Mon Jul 21, 2014 1:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which kind of bike for recent retiree?
Replies: 48
Views: 2897

Re: Which kind of bike for recent retiree?

I'm sure Raybo has had the same experience. I have. Riding on borrowed or rented bikes is like putting on someone else shoes. They don't feel right on my feet and make me walk funny. It has gotten to the point that if my seat post is a bit off, I can feel it. The one time I rode my brother-in-law's...
by Raybo
Mon Jul 21, 2014 12:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which kind of bike for recent retiree?
Replies: 48
Views: 2897

Re: Which kind of bike for recent retiree?

I do ride a lot. The break-in period was a couple weeks and somewhat painful, in that, my rear-end was sore during that time. I wouldn't want to have to do it again. Though, now, I can't imagine using any other saddle. Before I owned the Brooks, I had a gel seat that broke down on a ride from San D...
by Raybo
Mon Jul 21, 2014 9:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which kind of bike for recent retiree?
Replies: 48
Views: 2897

Re: how often do you look at your account

I wrote a program that updates my stocks everyday (the computer is turned on) at 4pm PST. It reports how much I gained or lost that day. I check the program that actually holds my investments and calculates my AA about once every 2 weeks or so. I log into Vanguard, at least, once a month to update m...
by Raybo
Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: how often do you look at your account
Replies: 70
Views: 3777

Re: Which kind of bike for recent retiree?

I'm sure your Brooks fits you like an old pair of shoes, but you ride a lot, so how long was the break-in period, 10,000 miles? I do ride a lot. The break-in period was a couple weeks and somewhat painful, in that, my rear-end was sore during that time. I wouldn't want to have to do it again. Thoug...
by Raybo
Sun Jul 20, 2014 5:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which kind of bike for recent retiree?
Replies: 48
Views: 2897

Re: Which kind of bike for recent retiree?

Brooks was the saddle to get in the 1970s. I had a couple back then. But it ain't the saddle to get 40 years later. Clearly in the war between some people's butts and their bike seats, the bike seats won. I'd rather have my butt win. This kind of statement would get you lynched in a bike touring fo...
by Raybo
Sun Jul 20, 2014 4:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which kind of bike for recent retiree?
Replies: 48
Views: 2897

Re: Which kind of bike for recent retiree?

You've gotten some excellent advice. Here are a few things I've learned from taking very long bike tours, in no particular order. 1) Don't buy a cheap bike. Things will break, they will be heavier than necessary, and better components mean a better ride. 2) The most important safety feature you can ...
by Raybo
Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which kind of bike for recent retiree?
Replies: 48
Views: 2897

Re: Gray Market woes

Good excuse to take a trip to Argentina?

You can deduct travel expenses (subject to a 2%? floor) for investment purposes.

Maybe arrange a trip to coincide with their annual meeting?
by Raybo
Sat Jul 19, 2014 1:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gray Market woes
Replies: 22
Views: 2955

Re: Place to stay in Rochester, NY?

Thanks everyone for the suggestions. I found someone to host me ("free ride") in Rochester on another list. I figured it was a longshot. I guess you're looking for a free ride. I'm not sure what the intention was behind this (snide?) remark, but it feels like a put-down. I have been a part...
by Raybo
Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Place to stay in Rochester, NY?
Replies: 7
Views: 797

Re: Place to stay in Rochester, NY?

If I am going to pay for a place to stay, I'd rather stay in a hotel.
by Raybo
Tue Jul 15, 2014 1:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Place to stay in Rochester, NY?
Replies: 7
Views: 797

Place to stay in Rochester, NY?

This is a bit of a longshot but I'd thought I try it. I am riding my bike from Rochester, NY to Lambertville, NJ. I will be flying into Rochester August 15 and leaving on my ride on the 17th. I need a place to stay for 2 nights. My flight arrives close to 7pm. While I realize this isn't a hospitalit...
by Raybo
Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:42 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Place to stay in Rochester, NY?
Replies: 7
Views: 797

Re: Need some advice about riding in the Finger Lakes region

Thanks for the good advice. It is the kind of details I was looking for.

I will be in Watkins Glen, assuming I go that way, later in August. I was wondering about the race.
by Raybo
Tue Jul 08, 2014 11:00 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need some advice about riding in the Finger Lakes region
Replies: 4
Views: 638

Need some advice about riding in the Finger Lakes region

After reading some of the responses in this thread about riding a bicycle from Cleveland to Lambertville, NJ, I decided to move my starting point to Rochester, NY. Now, instead of riding east through Pennsylvania, I'll be riding east through southern New York (State Bike Route 17). To get to SBR 17,...
by Raybo
Mon Jul 07, 2014 4:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need some advice about riding in the Finger Lakes region
Replies: 4
Views: 638

Re: Best Road Trip Vehicle

A bicycle.
by Raybo
Thu Jun 26, 2014 9:33 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Road Trip Vehicle
Replies: 35
Views: 2859

Re: How I win at craps

I, too, like to play craps. I have studied it both in person and via computer simulation. As you say, the key is to quit at the best time for the player and not to wait until the bankroll is depleted, which is the gambling equivalent of selling at the bottom of the market. Where I gamble, $5 tables ...
by Raybo
Tue Jun 24, 2014 12:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How I have won at craps
Replies: 20
Views: 2092

Re: Riding a bicycle east from Cleveland

Have you considered flying into either Rochester or Buffalo? The path along the Erie canal makes bicycling out of either city really easy and then south through the Finger Lakes would reduce the amount of traffic compared to NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania. I hadn't. The cost of flying is a bit more fo...
by Raybo
Sun Jun 22, 2014 4:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Riding a bicycle east from Cleveland
Replies: 26
Views: 1335

Re: Retired Bogleheads want to relocate to California

Orange County is a big place. There are lots of older neighborhoods inland where you might be able to find a "cheaper" home. But, cost of housing will be a big part of your cost of living in SoCal. On the other hand, you might find savings on other things, such as heating/cooling, that mig...
by Raybo
Sun Jun 22, 2014 11:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retired Bogleheads want to relocate to California
Replies: 109
Views: 7126

Re: Riding a bicycle east from Cleveland

A number of you talked about the University Circle as a place to avoid. Given I have to get 2 big cases from the airport to a place to spend a couple nights and then as a starting place for riding (I won't use my bike while I am in Cleveland, only to get out of it), where would you suggest I plan to...
by Raybo
Sun Jun 22, 2014 11:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Riding a bicycle east from Cleveland
Replies: 26
Views: 1335

Re: Riding a bicycle east from Cleveland

My plan is not to ride from the airport. My bike packs into a suitcase (S&S Couplers). I would fly with all my gear in bags, take ground transportation to some hotel in Cleveland (near the Art Museum?), assemble my bike, and gather my gear. Then, I will ship my bike case to my destination and sp...
by Raybo
Sat Jun 21, 2014 7:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Riding a bicycle east from Cleveland
Replies: 26
Views: 1335

Re: Riding a bicycle east from Cleveland

First, I assume you'll be heading south once you cross over from State Bike Route Y into NJ. Lambertville NJ is down in my neck of the woods, essentially across from New Hope, PA (amenable to bikers). As for anything along NY State route 17, I'd would not consider it. Yes, there's lots of hills. Ho...
by Raybo
Sat Jun 21, 2014 3:03 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Riding a bicycle east from Cleveland
Replies: 26
Views: 1335

Riding a bicycle east from Cleveland

I am starting to plan a bicycle ride across Pennsylvania to Lambertville, NJ (just across the Delaware River from southeast PA). What little research I've done suggests that riding in the northern part of the state is both pretty and "less" hilly than the southern route. The route I am con...
by Raybo
Sat Jun 21, 2014 2:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Riding a bicycle east from Cleveland
Replies: 26
Views: 1335

Re: What Do You Eat For Snacks?

Do you eat during your ride? Figuring 40 cal/mile, you are riding around 25 miles. On a ride of that length, I take 2 bananas with me or 1 banana and a sandwich to eat during my ride. I also eat a large meal when I return home and that usually fills me up. When I don't eat enough food, I get sleepy ...
by Raybo
Fri Jun 13, 2014 10:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Do You Eat For Snacks? [for exercise-induced hunger]
Replies: 129
Views: 9105

Anyone ridden a bicycle through the Allegheny Forest?

I have relatives in New Jersey that I will likely be visiting in mid-August. I'm trying to find a possible bike tour that would end at their house (Lambertville, on the NJ/PA border). One idea is using the Pennsylvania State Routes. Route S pretty much ends in Lambertville. Checking things out, I se...
by Raybo
Mon Jun 02, 2014 8:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone ridden a bicycle through the Allegheny Forest?
Replies: 3
Views: 496
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