Bogleheads.org

One of the keys is what the value of your stock options will be when they become vested. In theory, if a public company, one could hedge by shorting a similar amount (or a partial hedge) to "lock in" some gains - although the risk would be liquidity if a margin call occurred. A little of h...

Nothing. I recognize everybody elses' rights to do what they want, and I mean no disrespect to any individual, whether they are a poster in this thread or otherwise. That established, my view, which I know many people don't share, is: First : At a cost in lives and treasure we shut down organized c...

Are there any index options (S&P large cap and/or S&P small cap)? Principal usually provides those in many plans with lower ER's; if you have them you may want to consider synthesizing a TSM with those two funds and use other buckets in your retirement savings to augment. You are right, the...

First off, thanks for all the replies! It is greatly appreciated. To answer some questions and provide some more info: I am matched only up to 2.5%. There is talk of going higher but I'll believe it when I see it. Currently I have about $25k in my 403b. I plan on being with this company for about 2...

No bonus in years due since it is based on profit sharing and the metric used to calculate it was based on a higher sigma event that occurred on commodity pricing. However, the RSU's and the like have been carefully calculated for the chosen few. When we did get it, the after tax dollars went to ret...

For just movies, Redbox is often a better deal. For us it is since we would have to get about 7 DVD's to break even each month. That considers the fact that we drive right by those every day and don't have to go out of our way (incremental gas and wear and tear on vehicles) to get them. For other p...

Vanguard's track record of voting has been disappointing, to say the least.

Stewardship should be considered at every level.

RM

Netflix works for us because we don't care if we are behind one year in TV programming. Plenty of shows and movies for the kids to watch. If we need to rent a current movie, there is a Redbox close by. With rabbit ears, I can watch football. With Apple TV, I am able to airplay a reasonable variety o...

With respect to the equity index purchases, if you had X dollars in equity funds which represented your target portfolio equity/bond mix, and your target asset allocation hasn't changed, and you plan to rebalance your portfolio when conditions warrant, the advisor did the right thing. However, if yo...

Many people out there have stress related to their work environment - and almost all of them make less than 600K a year. How about single parents who have to work two jobs just to make ends meet? And the stress of their children being alone without supervision at times? How about people just struggl...

Our Vanguard portfolio watch page (from their regular web site) gives the following analysis of our stock holdings: U.S. stocks 153.30% International stocks 73.80% Other 2.30% Total 100% That strange math has been there for several days now. And the "flash charts" quit working too, Adobe ...

Why should a diversified investor avoid foreign bonds, especially if they are now available at low cost? The classic case of equity risk, on a country basis, is Japanese investors who only held Japanese equities (or mostly) over the past two plus decades. Why would we want to ignore this for soverei...

In various endeavors one can attempt to achieve in life, be it science, exploration, literature, the arts and even finance, there are certain individuals in history whose contributions will stand the test of time and never can be truly replaced.

Jack Bogle is one of those people.

RM

One note of interest with the Hussman Fund - at least since duration, he has done a good job of picking equities. Not that is may continue moving forward, but his unhedged portfolio would have done pretty well. I think he takes into consideration valuations when choosing his picks. RM You could jus...

In this case, the phrase "Cash is King" comes to mind.

RM

For purposes of this analysis, Fidelity utilized a flat rate of return in a deterministic model, not a stochastic model (such as “Monte Carlo”). Among other assumptions used...... The reality is that many people don't have even close to 8X and survive, while others have a lot more and still fret ab...

TBM has a duration of 5.3 years. GNMA has a 4.0 year duration, the others are less (I-bonds are flexible) - the aggregate is about 3.1 years duration. Major driver will most likely be the effect of interest rate change five years from now, Longer the duration, more risk/reward. Other key drivers are...

One note of interest with the Hussman Fund - at least since duration, he has done a good job of picking equities. Not that is may continue moving forward, but his unhedged portfolio would have done pretty well. I think he takes into consideration valuations when choosing his picks.

RM

Rick,

You just found the ultimate contrarian indicator.

You should have hired him as a consultant.

RM

If you look at M* to compare at the Bruce Fund versus chosen benchmarks, the long-term outperformance comes from the 2002-2006 period. New investors would be betting that this will happen again, it's only happened once during the funds reasonably long tenure. A lot of highly ranks active funds have ...

I remember back in the day when a broker cold called my house to make a recommendation on a specific equity. I quickly responded by asking him why he didn't call me back a few years earlier before it made its big run up.

He hung up on me.

RM

CNBC is horrible; just horrible. It is nothing but politics and a bunch of babbling, cackling, hyping, fake-arguing talking heads and assclowns. What I've seen on the new NBR is nothing more than a rehash of the day at CNBC. I can do without that. I'm looking for an intelligent conversation; CNBC d...

Mr Bogle, Being relatively young in 1982, I remember reading the book "Random Walk Down Wall Street" which for some strange reason, made sense to me. At that time, Vanguard was still a young firm but I entrusted my money there and have been with them for 30 years. If I would have made the ...

Although Yosemite is beautiful, I would avoid the summer visit - I've been there in the fall. From friends who have attempted the summer visit - they have told me the campgrounds, valley and Curry Village can be really busy. If you are going to go and hike during the summer, hit the trails early. Ce...

If you AA is off 4.5% and this is a rebalancing exercise, rebalance. Essentially, on this rebalance you are taking equites to target and reducing the duration of your bond portfolio. IMHO, the only "gamble" you are taking is the reduction in duration. I guess the real question is what your...

If a fulle time MBA student, will be around the campus a lot during the school year - not as much time will be spent at home anyway. Hopefully you can intern after the first year. Why pay for something that you won't use too much besides as a place to crash? As long as your parents and you are comfo...

Currently, the ER is a little high for my tastes, but the 0.75% purchase fee is the deal breaker.

That will change over time.

RM

I've had two experiences with Fidelity service. Fidelity service wasn't so hot when I had to assist a rollover on a 403b. Guess when assets are going out they drag there feet a bit. Slightly negative, but not surprising. So I'll give that a pass. However, when it comes to customer service, I believe...

It is disgusting to note the increase in the quantity of coffee used by my subjects and the amount of money that goes out of the country in consequence. Everybody is using coffee. If possible this must be prevented. My people must drink beer.

Frederick the Great

Another warning light just kicked on today: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100732916 When Cramer the perma-bull begins wondering about a bull run you know things are starting to get a bit out of whack. That doesn't mean it's time to pull out of the market though, instead we're probably on the verge of &quo...

It has been my experience that equities and bonds often move in the opposite direction. Assuming you own bonds, if interest rates tick up before you renter the equities market you won't have equities to help offset the bond declines. I guessed you missed that whole 1982-2000 period. Heck, longer-te...

[quote="lazyday] In the event of an extended deep downturn, withdrawing from principle could be dangerous. If stocks fall 90% or more, I do not want to depend on selling stock indexes to pay my bills. Even a more shallow downturn could ruin me. I feel more safe with my strategy, which does not ...

Here's the thing about the market being a little overvalued: it only takes a year or two or three of below average-but-better-than-cash returns for it to be fairly valued again. It doesn't have to crash or drop, it can just stop increasing so darn fast for a little bit. Doesn't mean you're better o...

I agree with Larry on most things but not dividends for some retirees who put in the effort, and have a sensible strategy. Well, I can't argue that some retirees will do well with the dividend strategy who put in effort and have a strategy which seems sensible. But most will still underperform, it'...

If you want an exercise in cherry picking, look at Oakmark, DFA Large Value, Vanguard Primecap and Fidelity Contafund since Oakmark's inception. Different paths, but end up at about the same place. The question is, would you have picked those at random in 1991 or picked dogs? Or would a performance ...

Even if they charge the front-end loads, it still makes sense to go up to the match level. At that point (regardless if there are FE loads), if you can Roth, I would Roth and then go back to the 401K only if they don't charge the FE loads. It is more than likely than the OP will have many jobs over ...

Another thing to take into consideration is that the strong majority of Oakmark I outperformance versus the S&P 500 occurred from about 1991-1995; it's first four years of inception. I won't say it's a closet index fund, since during the 1999-2003 period it acted quite differently. One item of n...

lazyday wrote:

Scooter57 wrote:classic valuation techniques....
will keep you from piling in on blue chip dividend stocks now
[snip]

Are there metrics showing these stocks more expensive than the market?

see this thread:

Larry S. - Another post on dividend strategies

RM

You guys are killing me.Why can't extremely smart people admit that their decision is influenced to some extent by past performance? Because past performance doesn't mean squat. I'm looking at returns going forward. It's all about cost structure, diversification and tax efficiency. There are a vari...

I was speaking with a high school student the other day who mentioned one of the projects in his consumer ed class was to evaluate the students stock picking abilities. Each student was given $100,000 in fake money to see what they could earn by picking stocks over a 3 month period. They are graded...

There is nothing wrong with certain indulgences as long as it doesn't negatively impact your health, both physically or financially. I don't recall any major rewards being handed out for taking everything to one's grave. Everyone has to live a little bit. Cheers and have a beer for me. :sharebeer RM

With respect to the audio experience, I can say that I have been satisfied with KEF speakers, I have the modest Q300 5.1 system, but it takes up some space.

RM

I do not see that peaks in the "attractiveness" index foretell good returns. The previous peak was about 1973-74, just before the lost decade prior to our most recent lost decade. All through the 1980's and 1990's while stocks were generating great returns, the "attractiveness" ...

My oldest child made a breakfast menu and we'll put on our chef's hats after she orders. We'll have a cookout later. Plus, we cleaned the house and did the laundry on Sat. Kids did crafts for her plus we got her a few gifts, chocolates and flowers chosen by the kids (except for the chocolates, they ...

To put things in historical perspective here are the real annual mean geometric equity returns from 1900-2012. Annual real return US 6.3% World 5.0% World exUS 4.4% Source: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013 Link - http://www.investmenteurope.net/digital_assets/6305/2013_yearbook...

I find the Onion to be far more reputable than Newsmax. At least they have the inside scoop on these billionaires.

All that hand waving ain't for nothing

RM

The problem with active funds and comparing them to benchmarks is that certain active funds have many asset class components. Or they are too sector specific. Or the beta higher or lower. Or........ Gets tough to compare apples when they are a little different, let alone if the fruit is different. S...

Maybe DFA just got a case of the Vapors.

They're turning Japanese
I think they're turning Japanese
I really think so

RM

In the meantime, I believe Morningstar fairly recently produced a study showing that investors in balanced funds tend to capture a higher degree of a fund's reported return (e.g., comparison of investor return v. funds total return). That's not hard to believe because balanced fund investors tend n...

Target Retirement will have further diversification in the near future as int'l bonds will be added to the mix. Since this fund is more bond oriented, it will be another divergence from the Wellesley fund.

RM