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Re: Why Is "Deflation" A Bad Thing??? How To Prepare/Profit

On my highway drive home I pass a number of gas stations. Yesterday, I found myself passing station after station, looking for for the lowest price. I finally came to my exit and thought,"I'll fill up tomorrow. It'll most likely be cheaper anyway." Now imagine that that kind of thinking se...
by RNJ
Mon Jan 12, 2015 8:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Is "Deflation" A Bad Thing??? How To Prepare/Profit?
Replies: 87
Views: 6139

Re: A mortgage prepayment puzzler

Thank you all for your very thoughtful and helpful responses. These responses undid the tightening knot in my brain: Keep it simple. :happy Simple way to look at it is, if you make a $20k prepayment you never pay interest on that $20k again. Yes, the monthly payment stays the same. But as others hav...
by RNJ
Thu Jan 08, 2015 2:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A mortgage prepayment puzzler
Replies: 15
Views: 1610

A mortgage prepayment puzzler

Here we go: Let's say I purchased a home one year ago with a 30 year fixed rate mortgage at 5% (the rate isn't material) for $200,000. This year I decide to prepay (let's say) $20,000. If I understand correctly, my monthly payments will remain the same until the loan is payed off in (let's say) year...
by RNJ
Thu Jan 08, 2015 8:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A mortgage prepayment puzzler
Replies: 15
Views: 1610

Asness: "Efficient Frontier Theory for the Long Run"

Here is a terrific article from Cliff Asness on market theory and the time it may take to realize "expected returns." Clear language, excellent illustrations. A must read (IMHO).

https://www.aqr.com/cliffs-perspective/efficient-frontier-theory-for-the-long-run
by RNJ
Thu Dec 11, 2014 8:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Asness/AQR Blog Post - Perspective
Replies: 38
Views: 2752

Re: VSS / IDV reallocation [which one to taxable?]

Have you considered PowerShares FTSE RAFI Dev Mkts ex-US ETF (PXF) as an alternative to IDV and/or EFV?

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=44133
by RNJ
Wed Dec 10, 2014 10:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VSS / IDV reallocation [which one to taxable?]
Replies: 10
Views: 1146

Re: Timing a tax-loss harvest

Hi All. I have a loss to "harvest" (boy do I love that euphemism) in PXF (Powershares FTSE RAFI Dev Mkts ETF). In my view, the natural TLH partner is EFV (iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF), some of which I already own. My question is this: As the yield of EFV is higher than that of PXF, should...
by RNJ
Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timing a tax-loss harvest
Replies: 5
Views: 607

Re: Timing a tax-loss harvest

Perhaps if you do not want to worry about figuring out your personal qualified dividend story on these shares, you should do something so that you hold whatever shares give you a dividend for the 61 days minimum required time period. Or if you cannot hold for the 61 days, then make sure you are not...
by RNJ
Tue Dec 02, 2014 2:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timing a tax-loss harvest
Replies: 5
Views: 607

Timing a tax-loss harvest

Hi All. I have a loss to "harvest" (boy do I love that euphemism) in PXF (Powershares FTSE RAFI Dev Mkts ETF). In my view, the natural TLH partner is EFV (iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF), some of which I already own. My question is this: As the yield of EFV is higher than that of PXF, should ...
by RNJ
Tue Dec 02, 2014 1:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Timing a tax-loss harvest
Replies: 5
Views: 607

Re: A 'really good book' you did NOT enjoy

1) Moby Dick. Every word. Twice.

2) The Psychoanalytic Theory of Neurosis, Otto Fenichel.
by RNJ
Tue Sep 09, 2014 7:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A 'really good book' you did NOT enjoy
Replies: 229
Views: 12354

Re: What pct of stocks is needed to offer decent inflation p

Zero. You could buy 100% TIPS. I think this path is too often overlooked. It addresses directly the question posed and does so in as close to a risk-free way as possible. I have read a thousand posts about needing stocks to help to keep up with inflation........my goal is preservation of capital wi...
by RNJ
Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What pct of stocks is needed to offer decent inflation prote
Replies: 32
Views: 2083

"The Cost of Chasing Returns" from St Louis Fed

A few months ago, we highlighted research showing how much chasing returns in equity mutual fund investing can reduce performance, noting that this behavior had cost investors around 2 percent per year over the period 2000-2012. New research over a longer period of time shows similar results. http:...
by RNJ
Sat Aug 09, 2014 11:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Cost of Chasing Returns" from St Louis Fed
Replies: 6
Views: 890

Re: Favorite portfolio tracking software

What specifically do you want to track? I've been using Google Docs for about a year, tracking 11 accounts across two brokerage firms. I update dividends and interest once per month and add transactions as they occur.
by RNJ
Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite portfolio tracking software
Replies: 14
Views: 1944

Re: Emerging Markets: making up 5% of your equities?

I've read that holding any amount of emerging markets less than 5% of your total equities isn't going to do very much in terms of helping soften potential falls in US equities . I believe you are referring to a potential diversification benefit in holding a dedicated EM allocation. A quick look at ...
by RNJ
Sun Jul 13, 2014 9:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets: making up 5% of your equities?
Replies: 47
Views: 3787

Re: Must-haves and Legal Needs for a Millionaire

One more thought: Though the numbers would vary, the advice given would be reasonable for anyone with a baby on the way, a job he/she depends on, and a few bucks stashed away.
by RNJ
Thu Jul 10, 2014 12:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Must-haves and Legal Needs for a Millionaire
Replies: 17
Views: 5081

Re: List of Worst financial advice (what not to do):

If you have a strong conviction about a stock you should go "all-in."
by RNJ
Wed Jul 09, 2014 10:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: List of Worst financial advice (what not to do):
Replies: 144
Views: 16823

Re: Emerging Markets: making up 5% of your equities?

I've read that holding any amount of emerging markets less than 5% of your total equities isn't going to do very much in terms of helping soften potential falls in US equities . I believe you are referring to a potential diversification benefit in holding a dedicated EM allocation. A quick look at ...
by RNJ
Wed Jul 09, 2014 10:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets: making up 5% of your equities?
Replies: 47
Views: 3787

Re: Must-haves and Legal Needs for a Millionaire

With a baby on the way you need to do some estate planning, so find yourself an experienced trusts and estates (T & E) attorney - not an attorney who does trust and estate work along with personal injury cases and real estate closings. You want someone who specializes in T & E in your state ...
by RNJ
Tue Jul 08, 2014 11:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Must-haves and Legal Needs for a Millionaire
Replies: 17
Views: 5081

Re: Question on Vanguard Balanced Funds

The LifeStrategy funds are more diversified, including allocations to international stock and bond indexes. I sit on the investment committee of a nonprofit and think the LifeStrategy funds are an excellent choice. VG Wellington, Wellesley and even STAR funds are other reasonable options, as well - ...
by RNJ
Tue Jul 08, 2014 8:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on Vanguard Balanced Funds
Replies: 10
Views: 1257

Re: updated thoughts on BMBIX?

I did some research on this fund last year. The charts below show portfolio characteristics for each year since 2005 from available SEC reports. Quality has been declining as the fund's assets have grown (in fact, proportion of AAA has declined linearly with total assets under management). As the c...
by RNJ
Tue Jul 08, 2014 6:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: updated thoughts on BMBIX?
Replies: 19
Views: 2009

Re: updated thoughts on BMBIX?

Thanks for your reply. I am considering adding it for the better credit quality, but you point out some downsides, notably the higher ER. I also still struggle with how to balance the higher credit quality with the significantly lower number of total holdings. I have been thinking a lot about my bo...
by RNJ
Mon Jul 07, 2014 5:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: updated thoughts on BMBIX?
Replies: 19
Views: 2009

Re: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?

Rodc wrote:7.25% not counting contributions (or more correctly, XIRR type return, not annualized, YTD)

60/40 more or less


Just to clarify, you essentially halved the xirr result (Jan - June)? Thanks!
by RNJ
Wed Jul 02, 2014 9:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are you doing through the first half of 2014?
Replies: 91
Views: 10290

Re: Using 100% Stable Value as bond allocation

dbr wrote:I don't know anything specific, but it would seem to me that investing most of what one has in a single stable value fund is risk one would not want to take. If it is 100% of 20% of a portfolio that is one thing, but for someone 75% bonds and all in one SV fund, I am not so sure.


Agree.
by RNJ
Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using 100% Stable Value as bond allocation
Replies: 31
Views: 2864

Re: The Three Fund Portfolio

Taylor Larimore wrote:Mastermike:

Your mother could be an excellent candidate for The Three Fund Portfolio.

Taxable account:
30% Total Stock Market Index Fund
10% Total International Index Fund

IRA:
60% Total Bond Market Index Fund

The Three Fund Portfolio

Best wishes.
Taylor


^ This.
by RNJ
Sat Jun 28, 2014 12:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Larry Style Portfolio for my mother
Replies: 15
Views: 1277

Re: New Lazy Portfolio: "Trinity Portfolio"

I would like to submit my portfolio for inclusion in the "Lazy Portfolio" section of the website under the name "Trinity Portfolio." The concept is simple and scalable based on a Master AA of Equities/Bonds. Bonds Portfolio: 40% in Inflation Protected 40% in TBM 20% Cash Equitie...
by RNJ
Sun Jun 08, 2014 9:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Lazy Portfolio: "Trinity Portfolio"
Replies: 28
Views: 2206

Re: "Hedge Fund Investors Aren't as Dumb as They Look"

If underperformance relative to the S&P 500 is an acceptable exchange for lower volatility, why not just hold less beta and more bonds or cash? Diversification. You can lower volatility and get superior risk adjusted returns unavailable to those picking just between stock and bond indexes if yo...
by RNJ
Sat May 31, 2014 2:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Hedge Fund Investors Aren't as Dumb as They Look"
Replies: 5
Views: 987

"Hedge Fund Investors Aren't as Dumb as They Look"

From Bloomberg: The article begins: "There's been a lot of discussion recently about why hedge fund managers get paid so much money. Curiously little of this discussion has involved asking the people who pay hedge funds all that money what they're paying hedge funds all that money for. Presumab...
by RNJ
Fri May 30, 2014 11:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Hedge Fund Investors Aren't as Dumb as They Look"
Replies: 5
Views: 987

Re: Advice on current portfolio

So what do I do about the other funds I have in the 401k? Sell them off and buy more Blackrock /Vanguard midcap/pimpco to get closer to my AA without International and then go for a Roth IRA at vanguard? --Yup. There are no tax consequeces, and 401k providers usually don't charge you for switching....
by RNJ
Fri May 30, 2014 2:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on current portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 774

Re: Advice on current portfolio

MALOX (BlackRock Global Allocation, er .78 - - http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=MALOX&region=usa&culture=en-US) could serve nicely as your only holding. Very simple, globally diversified 70/30 allocation - if a tad expensive. You could do a lot worse.

Good luck!
by RNJ
Thu May 29, 2014 4:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on current portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 774

Re: Tips yield

How can the yield, ever be negative? Hi lks, That's a good question, and one that comes up, in my opinion, less often than it should. To begin with, let's make a distinction between yield and cash flow. Cash flow is the amount of money bonds pay out each period. Yield takes into account current pri...
by RNJ
Tue May 27, 2014 8:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips yield [How can the yield be negative?]
Replies: 16
Views: 1527

Re: How to Invest Trust Assets for income & growth

With $1,000,000, and as a trustee , if you are planning to invest with Vanguard I would recommend using one of their CFPs for a consultation. I recently had an excellent experience with this service in connection to an endowment. He/she will take the time to analyze your situation and provide a plan...
by RNJ
Sun May 25, 2014 5:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Invest Trust Assets for income & growth
Replies: 18
Views: 1355

Re: Joint Family Financial Planning (mine + parents)

You've received some excellent advice. Whether we know it or not, these conversations are always fraught. For all involved, this process should be as clean as possible - devoid of any potential conflicts of interest. I would go so far as to recommend that your T & E attorney provide a referral f...
by RNJ
Sat May 24, 2014 9:14 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Joint Family Financial Planning (mine + parents)
Replies: 12
Views: 5100

Endowment update

[Thread merged with the original, see below. --admin LadyGeek] Following up on an earlier thread ( http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=135892&hilit=+endowment ), as well as Rick Ferri's post from earlier today ( http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=139715...
by RNJ
Fri May 23, 2014 12:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Non-profit endowment question
Replies: 10
Views: 870

Re: We won best paper from S&P SPIVA worldwide!

Congratulations - nice work!
by RNJ
Fri May 23, 2014 9:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We won best paper from S&P SPIVA worldwide!
Replies: 39
Views: 3547

Control4 system user experiences?

Hi. About to undertake a renovation. There is an outdated and only marginally functional sound system in the house. Apparently, the speakers used are top-notch, as is the wiring, but the "brains" and keypads need to be replaced. The Control4 system uses iPads & iPhones to control house...
by RNJ
Fri May 23, 2014 9:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Control4 system user experiences?
Replies: 6
Views: 589

From ETF.com: "3 Ways Market Orders Hurt ETF Investors"

http://www.etf.com/sections/features/22175-3-ways-market-orders-hurt-etf-investors.html "Any investor of any size can buy and sell ETFs like they would a single stock listed on an exchange any time of day. That intraday tradability is one of the great traits of the exchange-traded fund relativ...
by RNJ
Fri May 23, 2014 8:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: From ETF.com: "3 Ways Market Orders Hurt ETF Investors"
Replies: 4
Views: 799

Re: a tale of two small value funds

Larry, As always, thank you for the link. I am enjoying your new book a great deal. I am indebted to you (and Rick and Taylor and Dr. Bernstein ) for the impact you've had on my family's financial well-being. Though I find the theory underlying your recommendations to be convincing (and as I creep u...
by RNJ
Mon May 19, 2014 9:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a tale of two small value funds
Replies: 25
Views: 2025

M* "Dep Value in the S&P 500" (RPV)

"This fund [Guggenheim S&P 500 Pure Value ETF] offers a heavy dose of value, but it may overweight companies with deteriorating fundamentals."

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/ ... ?id=647033
by RNJ
Fri May 09, 2014 4:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M* "Dep Value in the S&P 500" (RPV)
Replies: 4
Views: 483

Re: Trying to figure out this methodolgy

One quick thought - you have an outstanding defined pension ($108,000 annually). Assuming that you are comfortable both in the pension's stability and your staying in this position long enough to collect it, you may not have to take nearly as much risk (80/20) in your portfolio. If you are concerned...
by RNJ
Mon May 05, 2014 7:04 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Trying to figure out this methodolgy
Replies: 11
Views: 2264

Re: "How to get an (almost) free ETF portfolio"

^ Thanks - shoulda checked. Sorry!
by RNJ
Sun May 04, 2014 2:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hougan: How To Get An (Almost) Free ETF Portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 930

"How to get an (almost) free ETF portfolio"

[Thread merged, see below. --admin LadyGeek]

From ETF.com. This brief article looks at costs and "realized costs", accounting for tracking error.


http://www.etf.com/sections/blog/21950-how-to-get-an-almost-free-etf-portfolio.html
by RNJ
Sun May 04, 2014 1:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hougan: How To Get An (Almost) Free ETF Portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 930

Re: Tilters: how much would you pay for a tilt?

Is it possible that, as with so many other aspects of portfolio construction, it is more helpful to look at expense ratios from the perspective of the portfolio-as-a-whole? With respect to tilting, I've picked my spots. I own sizable percentages in ILV (EFV, er .4% and PXF, er .47%), ex-US Small (VS...
by RNJ
Sun May 04, 2014 1:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilters: how much would you pay for a tilt?
Replies: 21
Views: 2314

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

"Sabbath's Theater" by Philip Roth
by RNJ
Sun May 04, 2014 7:10 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3372
Views: 1256742

Re: Advice on picking a financial advisor

I would implore you to go ahead without an advisor. Extremely efficient, easy to understand, low expense ratio INDEX funds available through Vanguard, Fidelity or Schwab are excellent vehicles for building wealth over the long haul (Full disclosure: I have accounts at Vanguard and Fidelity and own i...
by RNJ
Fri May 02, 2014 8:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on picking a financial advisor
Replies: 36
Views: 2224

Re: Husband wants to retire - Portfolio grade requested

dickenjb wrote:
1.5% in advisory fees and excess expenses means you are giving away 40% of your retirement income stream.


+1

A point not made often enough.
by RNJ
Thu May 01, 2014 12:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UPDATE:Husband wants to retire - Portfolio grade requested
Replies: 32
Views: 3660

Re: "A Come-to-Buffet Moment" (from M*)

Thanks for the link, but the creation of two new factors has the effect of diluting their importance. We've lost the highly touted value effect and replaced it with profitability and investment intensity. Fama and French define investment intensity as the year-over-year growth in total assets. Simi...
by RNJ
Tue Apr 29, 2014 2:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fama/French Factors: "A Come-to-Buffet Moment" (from M*)
Replies: 74
Views: 4932

Fama/French Factors: "A Come-to-Buffet Moment" (from M*)

A write up on factor investing and new factors. Should make for an interesting discussion. http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=644994 From the essay: "My colleague Lee Davidson alerted me to an interesting working paper by Eugene Fama and Kenneth French, "A Five-Factor A...
by RNJ
Tue Apr 29, 2014 12:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fama/French Factors: "A Come-to-Buffet Moment" (from M*)
Replies: 74
Views: 4932

Re: Convince me to lump sum into the market

I know this is not a Boglehead-y way to get into the market, but I'm leaning toward doing something like this as I think the bull market is coming to an end. Imagine an investor has two million to invest and does it over twelve months. The day after the last installment, the market drops 50%. How w...
by RNJ
Mon Apr 28, 2014 6:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convince me to lump sum into the market
Replies: 59
Views: 11827

Re: Requiem for Magic Formula fund--anyone know how it did?

I'm mildly skeptical of quality factors. The value premium is impressive because it can be measured in many ways that work equally well. Price to earnings works, price to book works, cash flow to book works, EBIT/EV works, EBITDA/EV works, price to employees works, and taking rolling averages sever...
by RNJ
Wed Apr 23, 2014 9:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Requiem for Magic Formula fund--anyone know how it did?
Replies: 9
Views: 1721

Re: Security Risk in Donating Appreciated Vanguard Shares

jebmke wrote:We do everything through a VG DAF. Online donation of securities, online grants to charities. No fuss, no muss.


Very simple and has worked very well.
by RNJ
Tue Apr 22, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Security Risk in Donating Appreciated Vanguard Shares
Replies: 6
Views: 418

Re: Last Minute Denali Trip - Where to find lodging?!

We stayed here about 12 years ago: http://www.earthsonglodge.com/index.html Enjoyed it very much (especially if you like dogs). Relatively close to where you get the bus ride into the park. My wife and I stayed there in early Fall of 2003. A GREAT experience. Very close to the park, beautiful spot,...
by RNJ
Mon Apr 21, 2014 10:20 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Last Minute Denali Trip - Where to find lodging?!
Replies: 13
Views: 1271
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