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Re: Flights D.C. to London: Buy now or wait?

We fly to London tomorrow. The biggest benefit with buying early from United is getting to chose your seats when you buy the tickets. This is not the case with some other airlines. I never fly Lufthansa unless I absolutely have to for this very reason.
by Professor Emeritus
Sat Apr 19, 2014 2:56 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Flights D.C. to London: Buy now or wait?
Replies: 22
Views: 433

Re: High Yield Bonds as an Annuity?

If annuities are fairly priced from low risk providers they represent the most "financially risk free" lifetime income you can buy. A lot of implied assumptions there, including that the annuity be priced at free market interest rates, and that the provider remain credit worthy for perhap...
by Professor Emeritus
Fri Apr 18, 2014 9:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Yield Bonds as an Annuity?
Replies: 23
Views: 1637

Re: *poor* Bogleheads

There is a sense of "superiority" on this forum from some of the members. Not necessarily due to wealth but more in the area of perceived social position due to occupation and attained education level. Kind of a blue-blood attitude (My children are going to expensive private schools/I am ...
by Professor Emeritus
Fri Apr 18, 2014 9:28 am
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: *poor* Bogleheads
Replies: 78
Views: 5165

Re: "Best" place for new tires and tire protection plans = B

I am normally the el cheapo and /or DIY guy, but even though I have rebuilt manual transmissions on my cars and balanced my own tires, When we started having kids I changed my ways. Since 1987 the same franchise shop has done all the work on all my cars. Anything they didn't do, went to shops they s...
by Professor Emeritus
Fri Apr 18, 2014 8:46 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "Best" place for new tires and tire protection plans = B.S.?
Replies: 21
Views: 1160

Re: *poor* Bogleheads

I think my sig that appears at the bottom of the post says a lot. It is a reminder that all of us are born with the same level of wealth. From that point on, it changes due to opportunity. For some there is wealth waiting for them due to the generosity of parents, grandparents, etc. Others exist in...
by Professor Emeritus
Fri Apr 18, 2014 8:22 am
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: *poor* Bogleheads
Replies: 78
Views: 5165

Re: practicing medicine in Texas...

shoot that's what my mom told me! :) she said go marry yourself a nice girl doctor but first learn how to cook and get a real doctor job, not this family medicine crap, what are you? a nurse? Nothing so respectable. I'm a law professor (emeritus) But I've taught Health care risk management, worked ...
by Professor Emeritus
Fri Apr 18, 2014 12:52 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: practicing medicine in Texas...
Replies: 23
Views: 1747

Re: The dangers of backtesting and overfitting data - paper

Thanks, great article. If your stock portfolio varies much from the market weighting, you're probably a backtest victim. A core problem is the publish-or-perish nature of academia, which results in smart people wasting large amounts of time pouring over historical returns looking for patterns. The ...
by Professor Emeritus
Thu Apr 17, 2014 7:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangers of backtesting and overfitting data - paper
Replies: 18
Views: 967

Re: Over-55 communities a ripoff?

dgdevil wrote:I heard STD rates were quite high too. Does the ambulance have its siren on? You'd think they'd be a bit tactful about that sort of thing?


At my parents over 55 place the joke was that Heart attacks were an STD
by Professor Emeritus
Thu Apr 17, 2014 5:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Over-55 communities a ripoff?
Replies: 38
Views: 2581

Re: I need a new coffee maker, any recommendations?

:happy Based on past threads, coffee is somewhat more controversial than market timing, religion, politics or sex with hookers. :D

I'm just not going there anymore :beer
by Professor Emeritus
Thu Apr 17, 2014 3:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I need a new coffee maker, any recommendations?
Replies: 60
Views: 2105

Re: practicing medicine in Texas...

:happy that is absolutely impossible EVERYONE knows that due to greedy malpractice lawyers and chintzy insurance companies impoverished MDs are living in their cars, dumpster diving for dinner and discouraging young people from studying medicine. :happy Hey, my mother told me to learn how to cook an...
by Professor Emeritus
Thu Apr 17, 2014 2:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: practicing medicine in Texas...
Replies: 23
Views: 1747

Re: First of two parter on what is risk

In my little world of disasters RISK is a probability of an event UNCERTAINTY is our lack of knowledge of the probability distribution. If you play Russian roulette with a pistol and you know the number of cylinders and the number of bullets you can have a very clear statement of risk but if the bul...
by Professor Emeritus
Thu Apr 17, 2014 2:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First of two parter on what is risk
Replies: 26
Views: 1599

Re: Where are the Opportunities now ?

I thought that even Bogleheads were allowed to treat 5% of their portfolio as Play Money and invest it on whims, in individual stocks or sector funds. So why are we getting all judgmental here? No, it's "spending money" outside your portfolio. You can spend it on wine women and song , slo...
by Professor Emeritus
Thu Apr 17, 2014 1:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where are the Opportunities now ?
Replies: 28
Views: 1918

Re: Live Now, Live Later?

One couple's experience. We were within shouting distance of your numbers when my wife was disabled at 60. However we had already done everything on our "bucket list". For healthy people at age 50 the median "fully healthy life expectancy" is about 16 years. You are a long time d...
by Professor Emeritus
Thu Apr 17, 2014 1:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Live Now, Live Later?
Replies: 31
Views: 2478

Re: Newly Widowed, what to do with the life insurance money.

If your kids' grades and interests are college quality I would contact your State U and ask if they have any system for treating your assets as "non countable" based on your situation. e.g. if the money was in a retirement fund it would not be counted. Also ask at the CC. Do they have a fe...
by Professor Emeritus
Thu Apr 17, 2014 5:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newly Widowed, what to do with the life insurance money....
Replies: 28
Views: 3205

Re: Newly Widowed, what to do with the life insurance money.

First let me express my deepest deepest sympathy. Since you mention FERS he was a federal employee Do you get a FERS pension ? (separate from TSP annuity7) (to have tax bracket of 25% marginal you have to have a taxable income of over 50 K with 2 kids) SS benefits are not fully taxable at that rate....
by Professor Emeritus
Wed Apr 16, 2014 8:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newly Widowed, what to do with the life insurance money....
Replies: 28
Views: 3205

Re: making your own will or trust

I had to deal with a home made computer generated will that left money to a spouse and remainder to the two kids John and Mary it then said "if either John or Mary (testators son and daughter) do not survive me then Brother Michael shall inherit the remainder of my estate. Of course one of the ...
by Professor Emeritus
Wed Apr 16, 2014 5:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: making your own will or trust
Replies: 29
Views: 1609

Re: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get

This is actually a different issue, and I would agree with you. You are describing the underlying structure of the economy, not the stock market. Sort of the difference between climate and weather forecasting. I would respectfully disagree, the economy is whole different ball of wax with more compl...
by Professor Emeritus
Wed Apr 16, 2014 2:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get
Replies: 72
Views: 5332

Re: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get

Using words like correction and dip and bump etc suggest that there is underlying structure to the market. I.e. a set of real values that the market only approximates. There isn't. You're welcome to your opinion of course but that doesn't seem to match what the academic research is saying. The main...
by Professor Emeritus
Wed Apr 16, 2014 12:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get
Replies: 72
Views: 5332

Re: Federal Employment Question

Barefootgirl wrote:And yes, about the pension - all of my co workers cite as the primary reason for remaining in Govt - I haven't probed further, just what I hear repeatedly.

BFG


You will hear that from CSRS folks, especially those still eligible for CSRS despite a break in service.
by Professor Emeritus
Wed Apr 16, 2014 12:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Federal Employment Question
Replies: 20
Views: 1322

Re: Federal Employment Question

I would certainly urge any fed in a professional position who is in it for the FERS pension to find another job. CRS calculates the FERS pension as costing 12% of the salary base. Even if you add in the 5% match you can get by putting up 5% for the tsp you get 17% of salary. DW's salaried non federa...
by Professor Emeritus
Wed Apr 16, 2014 12:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Federal Employment Question
Replies: 20
Views: 1322

Re: Baby Boomers: Top 10 Movies

If you limit it to moves ABOUT baby boomers most of the list has to be dumped. Even American Graffiti (a great movie) is set in 1962 when the oldest boomer would have been 16 Neither Bernstein nor Woodward were boomers. George Lucas is not a boomer. Boomers were born 1946-1964 in most accounts. Olde...
by Professor Emeritus
Wed Apr 16, 2014 11:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Baby Boomers: Top 10 Movies
Replies: 35
Views: 2219

Re: Student Loan Repayment by Employer Counting as Taxed Inc

On a similar note, I've wondered why government officials don't have to pay tax on housing, chefs, etc.... Aren't those "employee benefits"? Could I have my small business purchase my house and live there rent free? No What is the business purpose OTHER than providing a tax break? Public ...
by Professor Emeritus
Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:49 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Student Loan Repayment by Employer Counting as Taxed Income
Replies: 16
Views: 904

Re: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get

georgewall42 wrote:If you had $732 in 1929 and decided to put it in your mattress, you would still have that $732 today.


Unless it was gold coins !!

Not a gold bug bt could not resist
by Professor Emeritus
Wed Apr 16, 2014 8:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get
Replies: 72
Views: 5332

Re: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get

placeholder wrote:
cfs wrote:Where have all the "Why bonds" conversations gone?

Long time passing.

:oops: beat me to it :sharebeer
by Professor Emeritus
Wed Apr 16, 2014 5:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get
Replies: 72
Views: 5332

Re: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get

Calm Man, the correction was roughly from 16,600 down to 16,000 on the DOW but the news media really played it up and people scare easily. I know it was roughly 3% but when the media gets a hold of that watch out. A 30% correction will cause some folks to get religion. http://www.investopedia.com/t...
by Professor Emeritus
Wed Apr 16, 2014 5:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get
Replies: 72
Views: 5332

Re: You don't want to be member of the hedge fund club

One reason people invest in the hedge funds is the prestige factor. People like to have their money invested by a well known money manager. Plus it makes you seem smarter and more sophisticated. Telling your wealthy friends at a cocktail party that you have your money in a three index fund portfoli...
by Professor Emeritus
Wed Apr 16, 2014 5:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You don't want to be member of the hedge fund club
Replies: 13
Views: 2176

Re: Frugality regret: What thing do you regret not spending

Funny because I splurged for a professional photographer for a big family event in 2003. But at a similar event in 2007 I hired a kid for a few hundred dollars. I still regret spending all that money the first time. I will admit that between 2003 and 2007 the world went digital and my comfort with ...
by Professor Emeritus
Tue Apr 15, 2014 11:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Frugality regret: What thing do you regret not spending on?
Replies: 107
Views: 13012

Re: Inheritance / gift question

Lets hear it for sticking it to little children for the sins of the parents. I guess Social security had the right idea.

But UTMA's are actually the easy way to do this.
by Professor Emeritus
Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:22 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inheritance / gift question
Replies: 12
Views: 1309

Re: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get

What I think is just as interesting is how infrequent 50% plus declines are. There have been 3 since 1720, one every 100 hundred years on average. All this for historically 6.5 to 7% real growth (Siegel's constant) in value not a bad tradeoff but you need to stay the course and be ready for these t...
by Professor Emeritus
Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get
Replies: 72
Views: 5332

Re: VA Question

gkaplan wrote:I thought this was going to be a Veterans Affairs question.

in Virginia :happy
by Professor Emeritus
Tue Apr 15, 2014 10:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VA Question
Replies: 4
Views: 454

Re: High Yield Bonds as an Annuity?

FWIW, the only kind of high yield bonds that have exhibited good risk/reward characteristics are the "fallen angels" --Once investment grade that became high yield or junk The reason they have done okay is that when they lose their investment grade status many institutional investors will...
by Professor Emeritus
Tue Apr 15, 2014 9:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Yield Bonds as an Annuity?
Replies: 23
Views: 1637

Re: High Yield Bonds as an Annuity?

Do remember that the difference between capital and income is an accounting device largely invented by and for lawyers. In feudal times you could use the profits from the land annually but you did not really "own" the land in any modern sense. The Franciscan friars for example were not all...
by Professor Emeritus
Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Yield Bonds as an Annuity?
Replies: 23
Views: 1637

Re: What exactly is a risk premium?

100% in the total market is typically considered the maximum risk appropriate even for a young investor. And it has very low turnover, so the transaction fees are typically lower than sector funds. If you think you need more risk than, say, a total world market fund, then you would have to buy a ri...
by Professor Emeritus
Mon Apr 14, 2014 9:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What exactly is a risk premium?
Replies: 14
Views: 975

Re: The Case for Dividend Stocks in Retirement (article)

The distinction between capital and income was largely created by lawyers who decided what use could be made of land by a life tenant or tenant for years. You could grow crops on the land but could you cut trees? Trees were of course the original "growth stock" yielding no dividends until ...
by Professor Emeritus
Mon Apr 14, 2014 8:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case for Dividend Stocks in Retirement (article)
Replies: 27
Views: 2229

Re: gold , silver, copper and uranium only

Gold, held as part of a portfolio, and rebalanced, is an asset class. Expectantly, the portfolio, will have a better sharpe ratio. Also expectantly, the portfolio may well have better performance with a 5-10 percent allocation to gold. Remember, its the rebalanaced portfolio's performance , not the...
by Professor Emeritus
Mon Apr 14, 2014 4:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: gold , silver, copper and uranium only
Replies: 46
Views: 2233

Re: What should my mother do w her $600,000 retirement money

I just have to chime in regarding the roach infestation. If anyone wants to discuss how to mitigate the infestation, please start a thread in the Personal Consumer Issues forum. For this thread, let's keep to the investing aspects. :happy If you use boric acid on Edward Jones agents where does it g...
by Professor Emeritus
Sun Apr 13, 2014 11:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What should my mother do w her $600,000 retirement money?
Replies: 31
Views: 4803

Re: Proper Money management and itinerary for Europe trip

2) no currency exchange is as good as no fee ATMS. Bank of America has partners. Speaking of dubious banking practices, the Global ATM Alliance is now essentially dead since BofA quietly introduced a fee last November. I got major sticker shock after dutifully using Westpac ATMs last year, but BofA...
by Professor Emeritus
Sun Apr 13, 2014 10:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Proper Money management and itinerary for Europe trip
Replies: 36
Views: 1751

Re: Proper Money management and itinerary for Europe trip

We are in Venice May 1-8 and then Germany May 8 to 14. I've taught or worked in all the places you mention. Good suggestions from lots of folks Mine are more Technical 1) Italian plugs are different from German, especially in Venice they have 3 thin prongs 2) no currency exchange is as good as no fe...
by Professor Emeritus
Sun Apr 13, 2014 8:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Proper Money management and itinerary for Europe trip
Replies: 36
Views: 1751

Re: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!

Compare everything to a Britrail flexible ticket. about 295 for 3 days or 360 fior 4 Rigid train tickets in the UK can be a real nightmare.
by Professor Emeritus
Sun Apr 13, 2014 6:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling by train in the UK for the firs time, help!
Replies: 29
Views: 1159

Re: the President's savings rate

Ex presidents and other significant federal officials get nice pensions and healthcare, if I'm not mistaken. They're different from you & me... You got that right. :) OFCS DW was a career government physician. She won lots of awards and prizes. pension + annuity value of government's share of T...
by Professor Emeritus
Sun Apr 13, 2014 6:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: the President's savings rate
Replies: 19
Views: 2617

Re: the President's savings rate

Regardless of his expenses (and I'm glad we don't have a king) to be president of the United States you have to be outrageously wealthy. I stand by the argument that his personal retirement savings rate doesn't matter. He's already "won the game" so to speak. I think to find the last pres...
by Professor Emeritus
Sun Apr 13, 2014 6:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: the President's savings rate
Replies: 19
Views: 2617

Re: less you need social security, earlier you should claim

For me personally at 37, I haven't done a careful analysis of what social security is going to mean. If I were to do that analysis, I'd probably assume that my payments will be approximately equal to the estimated funding ratio that SS will be at when I reach retirement age, which is somewhere arou...
by Professor Emeritus
Sun Apr 13, 2014 5:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: less you need social security, earlier you should claim
Replies: 39
Views: 2781

Re: less you need social security, earlier you should claim

There is no guarantee that claiming early locks in a better deal. They can still reduce benefits just as easily. Why assume claiming early provides any protection? The only protection it definitely assures is that benefits already received could not be unreceived. This discussion can occur without ...
by Professor Emeritus
Sun Apr 13, 2014 5:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: less you need social security, earlier you should claim
Replies: 39
Views: 2781

Re: less you need social security, earlier you should claim

This isn't about fairness. This is a question for those facing the question of whether to file early when they can afford to wait: do they/should they consider the possibility of not receiving their full benefit in determining when to claim? Is your "possibility" describing aleatory, epis...
by Professor Emeritus
Sun Apr 13, 2014 11:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: less you need social security, earlier you should claim
Replies: 39
Views: 2781

Re: less you need social security, earlier you should claim

Ofgs there is a reason why this is a "prohibited topic" e.g. did you consider that fairness requires that early claimers have greater reductions in SS if benefits cannot be fully paid?

etc etc etc etc
by Professor Emeritus
Sun Apr 13, 2014 11:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: less you need social security, earlier you should claim
Replies: 39
Views: 2781

Re: Playing Defense

. Of course no one has a crystal ball, but if you are well versed in technical analysis you can see the probabilities unfold. Wow I've been teaching the regulatory use of mathematical models for a few decades and I've seen a "probability unfold" !!!! Is this a variation on the Eightfold w...
by Professor Emeritus
Sat Apr 12, 2014 10:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Playing Defense [against possible market correction]
Replies: 36
Views: 2934

Re: Stock markets in free fall?

selftalk wrote:This is a great time to rebalance into gold, silver and copper.

Just bought three pairs of gold earrings for DW. One on each ear balances very nicely :D
by Professor Emeritus
Sat Apr 12, 2014 3:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock markets in free fall?
Replies: 92
Views: 6520

Re: Contractor not licensed but insured

The key is whether being unlicensed is the same thing as unlawful. It is unlawful for unlicensed physicians,lawyers, barbers etc to offer professional services. However as an example it is not always unlawful for unlicensed engineers to offer professional services . What is the licensing structure?
by Professor Emeritus
Fri Apr 11, 2014 7:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Contractor not licensed but insured
Replies: 15
Views: 853

Re: Annuities

nisiprius wrote: Just as it's better to change the oil yourself than to pay Jiffy-Lube etc.


I agree with the rest of the post, but this is not so clear (if you mean a commercial oil change)
At least at my shop the oil change includes a professional "once over" of the car. Well worth it. :happy
by Professor Emeritus
Fri Apr 11, 2014 4:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities
Replies: 59
Views: 3892

Re: Annuities

My take on annuities if very simple, the insurance company is betting you will die early whereas with life insurance, they are betting you will not. Just my $0.02. You are confusing the bet with the sales pitch. All they need for the bet both ways is that your risk is in their actuarial pool. As wi...
by Professor Emeritus
Fri Apr 11, 2014 4:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities
Replies: 59
Views: 3892
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