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Re: What do you splurge on?

I got some scary medical news. Immediately said I want to see the best Dr on the planet. The recommended Dr is out of network. I said book it anyway. Today I am traveling out of town so that an out of network Dr can perform surgery at an out of network hospital. This is the best way to splurge. Bes...
by Professor Emeritus
Tue Nov 25, 2014 9:55 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do you splurge on?
Replies: 137
Views: 7614

Re: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?

"Uncertainty only exists in the human mind - its not intrinsic to the physical world*. MB *ignoring quantum mechanics, if that is allowed! Investments don't exist in the physical world. As just one example property rights and ownership are not part of the physical world. An ounce of gold is ph...
by Professor Emeritus
Tue Nov 25, 2014 5:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?
Replies: 64
Views: 4959

Re: Create new account in case mom outlives assets--How to?

I'm looking for guidance on how I might set up an account (probably a brokerage account with post-tax money) where I make annual contributions, and it serves as a pool of living expenses money in the future if my mom outlives her assets (which seems pretty likely). Let's say hypothetically I deposi...
by Professor Emeritus
Mon Nov 24, 2014 7:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Create new account in case mom outlives assets--How to?
Replies: 15
Views: 1080

Re: Social Security 62 vs 66

No matter when one starts payment SS is going to give them the same money actuarially. This is only true under a very specific set of circumstances. For most individuals, either claiming early or late will be actuarially advantageous due to the presence of survivor benefits or due to real interest ...
by Professor Emeritus
Sun Nov 23, 2014 4:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Social Security 62 vs 66
Replies: 58
Views: 4754

Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

just frank wrote:I am anti-bond.


Sure but in the Movies you always lose !!!!
by Professor Emeritus
Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent "Boglehead" are you?
Replies: 112
Views: 5489

Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

I think the general conclusion by reading this thread is that most people talk the talk, but only walk the walk something like 75%. Just like people brag about their stock pick gains, but never disclose their losses, I imagine that bogle heads brag about their bogleheadness and either forget or don...
by Professor Emeritus
Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent "Boglehead" are you?
Replies: 112
Views: 5489

Re: What percent "Boglehead" are you?

TradingPlaces wrote:
Cosmo wrote:I am 50% Chech, 32.5% Boglehead, 12.5% Irish, 4% German and 1% Stupid.

Cosmo


Are you sure you are 50% Chech, and not Czech?



I am assuming he means from Chechnya
by Professor Emeritus
Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent "Boglehead" are you?
Replies: 112
Views: 5489

Re: Diversification among Bonds?

I have actually wrestled with this as I shifted my holdings out of Wellesley to VTSAX.
to keep risk levels the same we converted the appropriate stocks to bonds in the TSP.

We chose a 50/50 division between F and G funds for the bond component.
by Professor Emeritus
Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification among Bonds?
Replies: 32
Views: 2845

Re: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?

I was trying to avoid using the term, but here we go, since you've asked: Garbage In, Garbage Out. We use the term garbage in -Gospel out People will, in fact accept the most amazing garbage if you tell them there is a computer model supporting it. I gave a talk at NIST in 1991 called Mathematical ...
by Professor Emeritus
Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?
Replies: 64
Views: 4959

Re: Home equity loan as an asset?

A loan can only be considered an asset by the party that is lending the money and collecting interest payments. Borrowed money is not an asset.. Actually it is an asset but the debt means that it does not improve net worth. No, actually, the cash owed back to the lender is liabilitiy. Even on a net...
by Professor Emeritus
Sat Nov 22, 2014 8:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home equity loan as an asset?
Replies: 26
Views: 1365

Re: Home equity loan as an asset?

A loan can only be considered an asset by the party that is lending the money and collecting interest payments. Borrowed money is not an asset.. Actually it is an asset but the debt means that it does not improve net worth. No, actually, the cash owed back to the lender is liabilitiy. Even on a net...
by Professor Emeritus
Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home equity loan as an asset?
Replies: 26
Views: 1365

Re: Home equity loan as an asset?

LB0483 wrote:A loan can only be considered an asset by the party that is lending the money and collecting interest payments. Borrowed money is not an asset..


Actually it is an asset but the debt means that it does not improve net worth.
by Professor Emeritus
Sat Nov 22, 2014 5:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home equity loan as an asset?
Replies: 26
Views: 1365

Re: Thinking about retiring next year

You are a widow with a minor son? Does the son get SS? or was your deceased husband not the father?

also a 15 k car loan is a red flag that you are cutting things fine.
by Professor Emeritus
Sat Nov 22, 2014 4:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about retiring next year
Replies: 16
Views: 2000

Re: portfolio suggestions for the truly aged.

Retired people often normally an asymmetrical risk profile. Their basic needs do not change . For us,for example, the benefits of a dollar upside are not as great as the cost of a dollar downside. Upside benefits are not worth downside risk. Equity by definition is priced as a symmetrical risk. The ...
by Professor Emeritus
Sat Nov 22, 2014 4:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: portfolio suggestions for the truly aged.
Replies: 20
Views: 1928

Re: Personal Tips for a New Father to Be

Buy a good video camera. And use it. Nothing, I repeat - nothing, gives us more joy than watching her videos from those "litle" days that just whizzed by. I like that advice. The best thing you can ever give your child is a good marriage. Feelings of love abound now, but marriage can unra...
by Professor Emeritus
Sat Nov 22, 2014 4:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Personal Tips for a New Father to Be
Replies: 24
Views: 1706

What do you splurge on?

The Boglebunch being fairly tightfisted so I wondered what your personal "splurges" are? :annoyed NB NOTHING WORK OR INVESTMENT RELATED :annoyed :annoyed no "better software to keep track of my portfolio"etc. We are talking consumption here. Not investment. And no gifts. I'm chea...
by Professor Emeritus
Fri Nov 21, 2014 7:52 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What do you splurge on?
Replies: 137
Views: 7614

Re: getting umbrella insurance

They will generally want to know your occupation. Some occupations are more likely to get sued than others. I wonder if Doctors might be one of those occupations. Doctors should have malpractice insurance to cover any medical related suits. anecdotally doctors actually get sued for other activities...
by Professor Emeritus
Fri Nov 21, 2014 7:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: getting umbrella insurance
Replies: 25
Views: 1483

Re: The Bogleheads Have Taken Over

11 of the top 13 sellers are by Bogle or Bogleheads. Even if you don't count Tyson, it's still 10/13. Not too shabby. Don't get too cocky though. If you go to the larger "Investing" category there isn't a Boglehead in the top 10. Still a long way to go with this message folks. :happy That...
by Professor Emeritus
Fri Nov 21, 2014 5:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bogleheads Have Taken Over
Replies: 8
Views: 2240

Re: Retiring within 6 months looking for some advice

Thanks for the overviews and comments. It's going to be real close if my pension will provide the necessary funds until my wife collects soc. sec. at 62. To bridge this 2 yr. gap I will continue to teach part time at a college (13K income), and may pick up some hours on a consulting basis in engine...
by Professor Emeritus
Fri Nov 21, 2014 5:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring within 6 months looking for some advice
Replies: 15
Views: 2915

Re: How To Invest Your Emergency Fund?

I keep about 1 month in checking with the rest invested in taxable according to my AA (80/20) which is about 4-5 years of expenses. I have a taxable account with hundreds of thousands of dollars invested in Total US Stock and Total Int'l Stock that can be redeemed and in my checking account in unde...
by Professor Emeritus
Fri Nov 21, 2014 5:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How To Invest Your Emergency Fund?
Replies: 61
Views: 8116

Re: How To Invest Your Emergency Fund?

This has been hashed over and over and over again. The basic facts never change Emergency funds tier 1 Cash checking accounts anything that gives you real money TODAY Emergency funds tier 2 Anything that gives you real money without any problem at the end of the week Emergency funds tier 3 Steady f...
by Professor Emeritus
Thu Nov 20, 2014 7:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How To Invest Your Emergency Fund?
Replies: 61
Views: 8116

Re: How To Invest Your Emergency Fund?

Wricha wrote:If you are established get an unsecured line of credit for emergency fund and invest the rest.


A line of credit is not an emergency fund. It can get cut off in a moment.
by Professor Emeritus
Thu Nov 20, 2014 12:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How To Invest Your Emergency Fund?
Replies: 61
Views: 8116

Re: New teenage driver - which car for insurance

The Suburban is far more likely to be involved in a single vehicle accident and despite its size it transmits a lot of force to the driver
by Professor Emeritus
Thu Nov 20, 2014 12:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New teenage driver - which car for insurance
Replies: 31
Views: 2209

Re: What temperature for house for long winter absence?

If you are leaving a house for 2 months in the winter, shut off the water, drain everything you can and winterize what you cant cfhttp://www.hopkinsmn.com/home/vacant/ ... -homes.pdf
by Professor Emeritus
Thu Nov 20, 2014 12:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What temperature for house for long winter absence?
Replies: 31
Views: 2846

Re: How To Invest Your Emergency Fund?

This has been hashed over and over and over again. The basic facts never change Emergency funds tier 1 Cash checking accounts anything that gives you real money TODAY Emergency funds tier 2 Anything that gives you real money without any problem at the end of the week Emergency funds tier 3 Steady fl...
by Professor Emeritus
Thu Nov 20, 2014 11:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How To Invest Your Emergency Fund?
Replies: 61
Views: 8116

Re: Europe off-season (late Jan), 11 days, $3K budget

My favorite cities North of the Alps at this time of year are Rothenburg, Munich and Salzburg. All have good mass transit or are fully walkable all have good mass transit connections to Munich airport all have winter "seasons" that are fun. Vienna is also possible. If you go anywhere warm ...
by Professor Emeritus
Thu Nov 20, 2014 11:37 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Europe off-season (late Jan), 11 days, $3K budget
Replies: 19
Views: 1445

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

Hypocrite is a stronger word than I would pick, but some of us do admit that we look forward, pay attention to valuation, and act at certain times as conditions dictate. The idea of unshakable belief about the unknowability of the future and acting completely independent of time/future expectations...
by Professor Emeritus
Thu Nov 20, 2014 9:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 88
Views: 8156

Re: Bit the Bullet Selling Wellesley buying bonds and VTSAX

I concur in your amazement in being able to manage one's portfolio like this on vanguard.com. I continue to be impressed with the functionality, the efficiency and the security of being able to conduct transactions like this. May I ask if anyone from VG actually contacted you afterwards, simply to ...
by Professor Emeritus
Thu Nov 20, 2014 7:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bit the Bullet Selling Wellesley buying bonds and VTSAX
Replies: 5
Views: 1283

Bit the Bullet Selling Wellesley buying bonds and VTSAX

I just reorganized a big chunk of the "tax not paid yet" portfolio by selling half the Wellesley and buying VTSAX in Vanguard, and selling stocks and buying bonds in the TSP. (We treat all retirement assets as one portfolio and DW and I have half interests in everything) This is all long t...
by Professor Emeritus
Thu Nov 20, 2014 6:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bit the Bullet Selling Wellesley buying bonds and VTSAX
Replies: 5
Views: 1283

Re: Should we tip the caregiver

A trustee is not an executor of a will. Executors follow the will to the letter. A trustee is more like a representative in a republican form of government. You are chosen for your wisdom and foresight and judgment. Unless the trust instrument says otherwise, you're free to act autonomously in the b...
by Professor Emeritus
Thu Nov 20, 2014 6:16 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should we tip the caregiver
Replies: 26
Views: 1869

Re: Question about California Teachers Pension

As a university professor let me add that good teachers are priceless. We get the output and we know what they started with.
by Professor Emeritus
Thu Nov 20, 2014 6:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question about California Teachers Pension
Replies: 12
Views: 1214

Re: What to prepare for first baby due next month?

You haven't already enrolled your fetus in the pre pre pre pre pre pre Harvard fetal day care and bribe treadmill? BAD PARENTS When your baby at 6 months fails the entrance exam to the pre pre pre pre pre Harvard Baby day care you will wish that you had paid the prenatal fees instead of worrying abo...
by Professor Emeritus
Wed Nov 19, 2014 4:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to prepare for first baby due next month?
Replies: 55
Views: 2730

Re: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable fut

When you say "predictable" do you mean retrospective predictions? I mean out-of-sample prediction. Would anyone take any research seriously if it were based only on in-sample predictions? That's nothing more than curve fitting. 8 Than to validate the approach you have to wait until the en...
by Professor Emeritus
Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable future
Replies: 42
Views: 6032

Re: Vacation in France

The reason you discipline your spending is so you can do things like this. Our senior consumer economist used to say that a proper education was a year of Calculus and a year of Paris. DW was disabled at age 60. By then we had been in every country in the old EU, explored the Pyramids, Kenya, South ...
by Professor Emeritus
Tue Nov 18, 2014 4:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vacation in France
Replies: 96
Views: 4982

Re: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable fut

I think it's a very good prediction. 10-year equity returns are highly predictable (this is a point well-supported by academic research). My own model currently outputs 10-year returns at 6.9%. However, my confidence intervals are 2.7%-9.9% with median return of 5.8% nominal return. When you say &q...
by Professor Emeritus
Tue Nov 18, 2014 2:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable future
Replies: 42
Views: 6032

Re: 403(b) Difficulties - please advise!

Hello Bogleheads, very first post, and it's a pleasure to find a community like this. I would be very grateful for any feedback regarding something that happened yesterday. My wife is part of the retirement committee for her small company - ! What kind of "company" from the IRS What Is a ...
by Professor Emeritus
Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 403(b) Difficulties - please advise!
Replies: 9
Views: 802

Re: Investing in Chocolate? New to all of this.. need help.

Hello, I am new to investing. I was wondering if someone could chime in on my thinking? I am in the ag space, and have been wanting to invest in cacao due to the upcoming shortages. Best regards, David Thanks for the "heads up" I now own a full winter's supply of Ghiradelli hot cocoa for ...
by Professor Emeritus
Tue Nov 18, 2014 6:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Chocolate? New to all of this.. need help.
Replies: 23
Views: 2410

Re: Active or Not, I Love Wellington

Ok.I looked at the page.Wellington owns about 100 stocks that were each handpicked by the managers as well as 500 bonds.So how is that any different from any other fund where someone chooses all of the stocks.My idea of an index is all inclusive with no stock picking.I really do not get it.Sorry. T...
by Professor Emeritus
Tue Nov 18, 2014 4:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active or Not, I Love Wellington
Replies: 53
Views: 5070

Re: How premium cable can cost $59K

For a professor of economics I am surprised how this makes no sense to you. I will emphasize it In my life I will never own an annuity and therefor my example does not as well According to Vanguard, a 60-40 allocation has returned 8.7% on average from 1926-2012. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/ins...
by Professor Emeritus
Mon Nov 17, 2014 9:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How premium cable can cost $59K
Replies: 45
Views: 5106

Re: VWINX (Wellesley Inc.)

I am wrestling with the issue right now. We are retired and Have our Taxes not yet paid investments in the TSP (100 percent equity, suitably split) Wellesley, Fidelty spartan bond and Tiaa (bond) We also have a large taxable in Vanguard in VIGAX We treat it all as one pool. The Fidelity bonds are in...
by Professor Emeritus
Mon Nov 17, 2014 4:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWINX (Wellesley Inc.)
Replies: 44
Views: 4900

Re: Can active funds reliably beat the index? Actually, Yes

It should be noted that despite the claims of academic affiliations This a self published document by an employee of Blackrock. It shows no signs of peer review It should be noted that you are incorrect as far as the document being self-published. http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/pdf/10.2469/faj.v69.n4.7...
by Professor Emeritus
Mon Nov 17, 2014 4:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can active funds reliably beat the index? Actually, Yes.
Replies: 37
Views: 4702

Re: Any European skiing experts???

There is wonderful skiing at all levels in Land Salzburg. (Region south fo Salzburg city ) The even have a ski card good at all the ski areas Note there is a discount if you buy before Dec 4 http://www.salzburgerland.com/en/ski-board/super-ski-card/salzburg-super-ski-card.html http://www.salzburgerl...
by Professor Emeritus
Mon Nov 17, 2014 4:21 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any European skiing experts???
Replies: 9
Views: 797

Re: How premium cable can cost $59K

Have you heard of asset allocation based on risk? 70/30 while accumulating, 30/70 while retired. Both have different expected returns. Also 4% is the worst case scenario maybe 3.5 if you are really scared. I was a full Professor in Consumer Economics before I was a Professor in Engineering. I worke...
by Professor Emeritus
Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How premium cable can cost $59K
Replies: 45
Views: 5106

Re: How premium cable can cost $59K

Why? 5% real while accumulating, then when retired change asset allocation for more bonds. 4% SWR is quite reasonable. But if you want you can decrease to 3.5% to have a closer success rate. That makes my math even more resounding. I don't think you are looking at the big picture but instead pointi...
by Professor Emeritus
Sun Nov 16, 2014 7:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How premium cable can cost $59K
Replies: 45
Views: 5106

Re: Global Growth and Expected Returns — Why So Low?

First its "times" X not plus + . I simply cannot comprehend your statement most developed countries have public policies that greatly hurt employment and to a lesser degree, investment Where would You invest? Germany or Afghanistan? Germany has lots of government regulations. Afghanistan ...
by Professor Emeritus
Sun Nov 16, 2014 5:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Growth and Expected Returns — Why So Low?
Replies: 35
Views: 2487

Re: How to buy happiness (WSJ)

Grill: organic lump..... i am a purist.... :happy All repeat all commercial charcoal is a "manufactured" product. Kingsford is simply a very consistent manufactured product. You can often use far less charcoal by care fully arranging Briquettes on a fire grate. Less CO2 emission YMMV
by Professor Emeritus
Sun Nov 16, 2014 4:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to buy happiness (WSJ)
Replies: 31
Views: 3566

Re: Deciding When to Retire

It depends on the agreement you make and your field. Also on whether you're at a research university or a garden-variety 4-year college or a community college. At the college where I work, emeritus status allows you to keep your college e-mail address, but that's about it. Our shop actually values ...
by Professor Emeritus
Sun Nov 16, 2014 4:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Deciding When to Retire
Replies: 47
Views: 4974

Re: Can active funds reliably beat the index? Actually, Yes

It should be noted that despite the claims of academic affiliations This a self published document by an employee of Blackrock. It shows no signs of peer review It should be noted that you are incorrect as far as the document being self-published. http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/pdf/10.2469/faj.v69.n4.7...
by Professor Emeritus
Sun Nov 16, 2014 11:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can active funds reliably beat the index? Actually, Yes.
Replies: 37
Views: 4702

Re: How to buy happiness (WSJ)

I believe in buying quality function, not luxury to show. I buy quality clothes that fit better, age better, and feel better. I have a good reliable car with a smooth ride & heated seats. I own All Clad pots and pans, who's performance improves my cooking - and soon a Green Egg for grilling. My...
by Professor Emeritus
Sun Nov 16, 2014 10:48 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to buy happiness (WSJ)
Replies: 31
Views: 3566

Re: I learned that money can buy happiness

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/f6/Careers.gif taught me that money can by happiness. Careers is actually a fiendish model of a multi-currency game or the problem of Lancastrian characteristics. While you can program a computer to play it, give any pre-defined input of the success criter...
by Professor Emeritus
Sun Nov 16, 2014 10:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to buy happiness (WSJ)
Replies: 31
Views: 3566
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