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Re: Poll: Which Happens First - DOW > 20,000 or DOW < 14,000

Dow (neither an initialism nor an acronym) < 14,000 already happened first.

If you mean from here on out, then yes, your subject line is absolutely correct. Dow > 20,000 or Dow < 14,000 will happen first.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Which Happens First - DOW > 20,000 or DOW < 14,000?
Replies: 19
Views: 1158

Re: Predict: S&P Doubles or Halves First?

Clive wrote:...
Post 2000 US in relative decline, others gaining (Euro/China)

Really? The entire (future) history of the Earth? From 2000 on? All your other time periods ended. This one won't? :happy
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predict: S&P Doubles or Halves First?
Replies: 33
Views: 2120

Re: Predict: S&P Doubles or Halves First?

You do realize that if the S&P 500 doubles (goes up by 100%) it will only have to go down by 50% to lose it aaaallllllll!!!!! ! And, should the S&P 500 index lose, say, 900 points, it will have to go up by 900 points to gain it all back, ignoring dividends (which the index does)? Anyway, for...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jul 23, 2014 5:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predict: S&P Doubles or Halves First?
Replies: 33
Views: 2120

Re: Best Coffee Maker? What do you have?

"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler." A.E. [picture of a Miletta manual-pour cone] That's what I use, in artful combination with a whistling kettle and my stovetop. There's lots of info on lots of makers on pennstater2005's thread s/he linked to. To save OP time, the u...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Coffee Maker? What do you have?
Replies: 18
Views: 620

Re: SEC Adopts Money Market Fund Reform Rules

Happy to hear it! :sharebeer Institutions generally aren't slouches. They understand the underlying assets as well as anybody. Their primary reason for using money market funds isn't to fool themselves, but to make their balance sheets look better while still complying with GAAP and reaping the regu...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC Adopts Money Market Fund Reform Rules
Replies: 9
Views: 353

Scary Press - It's All in the Assumptions

Record IRA Contributions May Not Save Retirement - NBC News Whether the news is scary or not seems to depend on the assumptions made by the reporter, editor, publisher, and sponsors: Consumers' IRA contributions have hit record levels, but the extra funds may not be enough to save for retirement. A...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jul 23, 2014 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Scary Press - It's All in the Assumptions
Replies: 2
Views: 192

Re: P/E Ratio: How do YOU interpret/use it?

I interpret it to be the numerial comparison of the price of the stock to its most recently officially reported earnings per share. I use it to razzle dazzle my friends who assumed I must be ever so smart if I can use the term "P/E ratio" in a sentence. In my investing choices it hasn't en...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Tue Jul 22, 2014 12:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E Ratio: How do YOU interpret/use it?
Replies: 26
Views: 1270

Re: Can it be wrong to be too risk averse?

Appropriate risk aversion depends on your brother's own particulars. You're not really asking the question you wrote in the subject line, are you? You're really asking whether your brother is too risk averse, and the answer is we won't even have any way to start to form a speculative opinion unless ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jul 21, 2014 11:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can it be wrong to be too risk averse?
Replies: 49
Views: 2199

Re: Does Fund Inception Date Matter?

Hi Teach! Well done re improving the investment lineup for yourself and your colleagues. The more a fund deviates from an index the longer the track record a person might want to see, and for a newcomer fund family the same. Vanguard has proven itself to be very good at running index funds, except f...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jul 21, 2014 10:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does Fund Inception Date Matter?
Replies: 3
Views: 397

Re: Portfolio Withdrawal 4% rate with Ceiling and Floor

Hi all, my first post, I think. It's been a while since I came to this site. I'm 66, married, and retired at 61 and my wife (65) also retired at 61. Naturally, I am concerned about my retirement nest egg lasting us - until our early 90's, anyway. (I know Vanguard goes to 100 in their simulations bu...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jul 21, 2014 9:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Withdrawal 4% rate with Ceiling and Floor
Replies: 8
Views: 961

Re: Bond strategy resilient to rate increase

Hi - Goal: develop a bond strategy that is resilient to an increase in short term interest rates ... What are your thoughts? Am I missing something and/or are there better alternatives ? Thanks a lot, this was my first post :) HI tom8584, and welcome to the forum! Yes, you are missing the facts tha...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jul 21, 2014 9:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond strategy resilient to rate increase
Replies: 11
Views: 982

Re: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag

The S&P was a total market average , occasionally growing with new, approved listings, until the S&P committee decided to stop at 500 businesses. Seems a little late to criticize that decision using current info that was not available then. Rein in that straw horse. I agree with your reason...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag
Replies: 45
Views: 3389

Re: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag

You've made a specific claim, to wit, that a cap-weighted index of the 500 largest US publicly traded stocks shows results very little different from the 500 index S&P publishes. Your claim, your burden of proof. I took Nisi's post as demonstrating that. I concede the point. The major claim I m...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jul 20, 2014 2:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag
Replies: 45
Views: 3389

Re: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag

... Sorry, then I just didn't understand. It seemed to me like you were picking arguments with Larry and Berntston, whose views seemed consistent with the one I summarized above. But if you agree with it then we're all on the same happy page . No, we aren't, not yet. You've made a specific claim, t...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jul 20, 2014 2:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag
Replies: 45
Views: 3389

Re: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag

... Nothing you say refutes the proposition that the S&P 500 index is deliberately designed to be marginally different from a cap-weighted index of the largest 500 equities, and that the motivation for deviating is to reap private rewards to S&P . I should hope not. In this very thread I've...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jul 20, 2014 1:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag
Replies: 45
Views: 3389

Re: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag

Given the close correlation between the S&P 500 and the total market, why does the S&P 500 exist in the first place? Was it because S&P thought the "leading 500 companies" would perform substantially differently than the largest 500 companies or the total market as a whole? We...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jul 20, 2014 1:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag
Replies: 45
Views: 3389

Re: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag

... So I conclude that Larry is right. Right about what? That it isn't an attempt to reflect price movements in the US stock market as a whole? Do you (Larry: please chime in if you like) think it specifically is an attempt to do something else? What would that be? I'm not failing to notice the con...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag
Replies: 45
Views: 3389

Re: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag

Phineas FWIW, I don't buy that argument by S&P. If that was their purpose they could simply have made it the top 500 stocks by market cap. Larry You don't have to purchase anything you don't want. :happy If it isn't their purpose why do they track total US market indices so well? How well do th...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag
Replies: 45
Views: 3389

Re: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by invest

Choose your investments to express your political opinion.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ways to lose money and destroy personal wealth by investing
Replies: 81
Views: 9145

Re: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag

It is ironic that the largest and most famous index, the S&P 500, is really an active fund in drag. It has momentum rules (market cap weighting), fundamental rules (four quarters of earnings, liquidity requirements), and a subjective overlay (committee input). Does that sound passive to you? Th...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jul 20, 2014 10:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag
Replies: 45
Views: 3389

Re: Very high interest rate in other countries? How come?

ralph124cf wrote:...
For these foreign currency denominated CDs, does FDIC insurance apply?

Ralph

Hi Ralph,

Please find the answer to your own question, I suggest starting with https://www.everbank.com/, and report back with the result.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jul 16, 2014 6:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very high interest rate in other countries? How come?
Replies: 44
Views: 3171

Re: "The Incredibly Shrinking Financial System" by Jack Bogl

From the article: In fact, America's corporations are the true value creators. Wall Street firms, with their excessive intermediation costs, are value destroyers. I don't agree. Providing liquidity in financial markets, underwriting stock and bond offerings, and advising on mergers and acquisitions...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jul 16, 2014 4:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Incredibly Shrinking Financial System" by Jack Bogle
Replies: 10
Views: 1600

Re: New Edition of Random Walk in January 2015

Can someone post a TLDR distillation of the newest edition(s) of ARWDWS? I think what I took out of it was you buy an index fund and move on with your life. Hey, it should be that simple. A yes/no kind of way of setting money aside for use years down the road. tl;dr = Read the free 14-page If You C...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jul 16, 2014 3:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Edition of Random Walk in January 2015
Replies: 33
Views: 2310

Re: New Edition of Random Walk in January 2015

i don't have the book but the posters above mentioned that he gives aa recommendations can someone list what those are, as i asked previously? thank you OK, sorry, I was trying to be clever and clearly failed. :D I don't know the latest , but from the 2007 edition, for a person in their 50s - 60s (...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jul 16, 2014 3:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Edition of Random Walk in January 2015
Replies: 33
Views: 2310

Re: New Edition of Random Walk in January 2015

what is his current recommendation for during and w/in 5 yrs of retirement? Anything you like! I believe that's the point. As nisiprius has written, how can anyone follow somebody's long-term strategy suggestion if the person making the suggestion changes it repeatedly over the short to medium term...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jul 16, 2014 2:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Edition of Random Walk in January 2015
Replies: 33
Views: 2310

Re: Very high interest rate in other countries? How come?

Please consider it isn't so much different countries as it is different currencies. Your two examples are Indian rupees, INR (59 to a US dollar, USD), and Pakistani rupees, PKR (100 to a USD). Everbank, based in the United States , offers foreign-denominated CDs, although not 5-year ones. They're of...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jul 16, 2014 1:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very high interest rate in other countries? How come?
Replies: 44
Views: 3171

Re: Does anyone expect tilts to *under*perform?

It seems to me as if the existence of SV tilters among us must mean some other investors, consciously or not, and successfully or not, are tilted the other way. Presumably everybody who chooses other than a cap-weighted index portfolio expects their choices to do better than one. I don't know about ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone expect tilts to *under*perform?
Replies: 84
Views: 5268

Re: Help with fund picks for a new guy.

... Stocks do have greater average returns but also higher volatility. And, importantly, it's historically been the case that there is a low correlation between stock and bond performance. That is, in years when stocks do well bonds don't do as well -- but when stocks do badly, bonds do better or a...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with fund picks for a new guy.
Replies: 19
Views: 1742

Re: Cash allocation in a portfolio

... In general, can somebody really have zero cash 'allocation'. That's got to be not counting *some* emergency fund, right? Or some money in a checking account. Hi Johno, If I may quote the question asked by the OP: Do you have an allocation to cash (ST Bond Funds/CD's/Money Market Funds) as part ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Tue Jul 15, 2014 9:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash allocation in a portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3584

Re: Automatic Fund Linking and Hover Glossary

Hi Kevin,

Such a tool exists for fund (and other) ticker symbols, built using Greasemonkey, called tickerdescribe. I use it, but its link seems not to be working at the moment: http://userscripts.org/scripts/show/87684

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:55 pm
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Automatic Fund Linking and Hover Glossary
Replies: 2
Views: 269

Re: Have you quit your job because of your boss?

I haven't, but I do have some reason to believe my worst boss ever quit in part because of her failure to squish me out. I went on to resume a pretty good career with the company after then.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have you quit your job because of your boss?
Replies: 66
Views: 7074

Re: VWAP execution - how does it work?

So you're saying that they actually sell in small bits throughout the day and then just tell you they sold at the average? How do they resolve the discrepancy if they happened to sell one lot during a tiny flash crash? Who eats the difference? [Edited considerably for better clarity (using my usual...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jul 14, 2014 6:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWAP execution - how does it work?
Replies: 3
Views: 557

Re: Knowledge gaps + anxiety = shame; gender and investing

I have intentionally created a man-suggestive name on Amazon.com. Responders treat me differently there--I seem to get default respect and fewer probes of my intelligence--but it's less fun. Victoria I intentionally created a gender neutral name here at Bogleheads....for just the reasons you mentio...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jul 14, 2014 5:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Knowledge gaps + anxiety = shame; gender and investing
Replies: 75
Views: 5000

Re: VWAP execution - how does it work?

A new post on the Wealthfront blog explains that they are using VWAP execution to diversify concentrated single stock for clients. In other words, when they have a lot of stock to sell, they sell at the average price of the day rather than at a specific time. How is it possible to do such a thing? ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jul 14, 2014 5:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWAP execution - how does it work?
Replies: 3
Views: 557

Re: Knowledge gaps + anxiety = shame; gender and investing

Levett wrote:P J Whoopee:
Sapir-Whorf.
Thanks for the walk down memory lane. :happy

Lev

You shore did learn me!
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Knowledge gaps + anxiety = shame; gender and investing
Replies: 75
Views: 5000

Re: Knowledge gaps + anxiety = shame; gender and investing

If someone responds to me and assigns a gender I am always male. I am not male. That happens to me a lot as well. Makes me giggle. :sharebeer It's difficult in English. There's always their there, but that there their's a plural, and therefore unless one can now use them there theirs as singulars t...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Knowledge gaps + anxiety = shame; gender and investing
Replies: 75
Views: 5000

Re: BRK: What am I missing?

... Advantage #1 is that B-H invests in a number of highly profitable private companies which cannot be owned via any index fund . ... Is it your contention that Berkshire Hathaway is not itself included in any stock market index? If it is, and indeed it is, then surely one can own those companies ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: BRK: What am I missing?
Replies: 40
Views: 3539

Re: Cash allocation in a portfolio

... Bond funds not only provide yield when stocks do well but also provide capital appreciation when stocks go down . ... They do not do that, at least not reliably. The correlation between stocks and bonds is close to zero. That means they could both go up at the same time, both go down at the sam...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash allocation in a portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3584

Re: Safe withdrawal rate > 4% if no heirs & ok to deplete ca

... Your example conflates the tradeoffs of a) reverse-mortgage vs. selling and getting an SPIA with b) staying in a home vs. downsizing into a modest apartment. ... If it comes across that way I misspoke, but reviewing the text I don't think I did. I intended, at least, to compare them as necessar...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jul 13, 2014 10:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate > 4% if no heirs & ok to deplete captl?
Replies: 32
Views: 3077

Re: Safe withdrawal rate > 4% if no heirs & ok to deplete ca

Does the SWR (greater than 4% - with out heirs) take into consideration expenses for health care? It does not. These so-called "safe" withdrawal rates take into account one and only one thing: how likely it is that the portfolio will be depleted before thirty years of planned withdrawals ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jul 13, 2014 10:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate > 4% if no heirs & ok to deplete captl?
Replies: 32
Views: 3077

Re: Safe withdrawal rate > 4% if no heirs & ok to deplete ca

... What about Reverse Mortgages? Thought they were largely instruments for the desperate. But if a no heirs situation, could a Reverse Mortgage be a reasonable choice for a Boglehead? It's another form of annuity (or an annuity-like-object), is it not? Reverse mortgages sound, in the commercials, ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jul 13, 2014 8:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate > 4% if no heirs & ok to deplete captl?
Replies: 32
Views: 3077

Re: Is There Need for Plan 'C' (Inverse of Plan B)?

What's a plan B? I thought that the Bogleheads Investment Philosophy said to "stay the course". Have I missed a modification of our philosophy? No modification. The question, here frequently asked during the recent global financial crisis, was "what if future returns don't reflect hi...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jul 13, 2014 8:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is There Need for Plan 'C' (Inverse of Plan B)?
Replies: 12
Views: 1051

Re: Safe withdrawal rate > 4% if no heirs & ok to deplete ca

VictoriaF wrote:...
If the decumulation strategy fails, one should wear a potato chip on his or her shoulder.
...

Pieces of spud! Pieces of spud! Wrock! Oohoo! Oohoo!
-- Agriculturally Productive Island, Robert Louis Pillarofsocietyson

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jul 13, 2014 7:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate > 4% if no heirs & ok to deplete captl?
Replies: 32
Views: 3077

Re: Is There Need for Plan 'C' (Inverse of Plan B)?

The same plan as always: rebalance.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jul 13, 2014 7:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is There Need for Plan 'C' (Inverse of Plan B)?
Replies: 12
Views: 1051

Re: Vanguard recommending international bond....

What troubles me when looking at the prospectus is that 72% of the fund is invested in 7 countries such as: Japan (22.2%), France (11.5%), Germany (10.9%), United Kingdom (8.4%), Italy (8.2%), Spain (5.6%), and Canada (5.5%). Germany has been leading the Euro and excluding Canada, that is not an at...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jul 13, 2014 7:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard recommending international bond....
Replies: 44
Views: 5926

Re: Your net worth/investments when you started saving less

We Bogleheads are naturally financial worry wants, while many can actually afford to splurge more than our DNA and guilt allow us- we continue to live modestly (not a bad thing). Just wondering at what level of net worth and investable assets do you actually feel ok with luxury items ie, Tesla if y...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jul 13, 2014 6:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Your net worth/investments when you started saving less
Replies: 17
Views: 2354

Re: How do I model 20 yr Treasury portfolio impact?

The underlying mechanics are indeed interesting, but with respect to making investment decisions about the ETF you referred to (TLT, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF), if you plan to hold it over the very long term rather than as a speculative vehicle, I'd suggest looking up the SEC yield (3.26%) ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jul 13, 2014 3:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I model 20 yr Treasury portfolio impact?
Replies: 37
Views: 2278

Re: Debt payoff plan opinions

Phineas, Thanks for the quick reply, I am not maxing out my 401k at the moment, currently about 5k short of that projected for the year. I have already maxed out my ROTH contributions for this year. I am 24, with 78k salary, and the 12.5k is roughly 6-7 months worth of expenses if you count the min...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jul 13, 2014 3:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Debt payoff plan opinions
Replies: 53
Views: 3078

Re: Debt payoff plan opinions

I have 22k left on a car loan @5.99 percent, was a dumb move out of college and have since learned my lesson. I want the debt gone as I have no other debt and i can't stand the feeling of it anymore. I have 11k in a taxable investment account, and 6.5k in savings, and 6k in EE bonds given to me by ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jul 13, 2014 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Debt payoff plan opinions
Replies: 53
Views: 3078
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