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Anti-anti-fragile, or, the Contrapositive

Thanks to VictoriaF, I've read Taleb. Thanks to VictoriaF, I've read VictoriaF. :wink: There are other experts whose words I've read, and pondered. I have a sincere question, to which I do not today know the answer, descended from my claim, weeks ago, to be robust (as Taleb writes about and then goe...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-anti-fragile, or, the Contrapositive
Replies: 4
Views: 546

Re: Efficient markets: luck v. skill

... And your point is? Sorry? I hoped I made it clear but evidently not. It isn't enough to identify, after the fact , who would have been a good investment manager to entrust funds to. It's only useful to identify today, before the fact , who, in several decades, will have generated higher-than-ma...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient markets: luck v. skill
Replies: 27
Views: 1692

Re: Efficient markets: luck v. skill

Nor have we found a manager that can consistently and predictably beat the market. Best wishes. Sure, we have. Jim Simons, for sure, Edward Thorpe, and probably Buffet as well. He said "can consistently and predictably," not "did." Conflating verb tenses can be hazardous to one'...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 22, 2015 11:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient markets: luck v. skill
Replies: 27
Views: 1692

Re: Efficient markets: luck v. skill

... I liken the argument of considering the EMH as true until proven wrong , along the same line of considering unicorns exist until proven they don't. Which, of course, absolutely nobody who knows what they're talking about claims. You liken it to unicorns. I liken your crusade to tilting at windm...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient markets: luck v. skill
Replies: 27
Views: 1692

Re: Does securities lending matter more than expense ratios?

... No the expense ratio does not include an offset for securities lending. Securities lending can be seen as added income to the fund, much like dividends or interest payments the fund receives from the stocks/bonds it holds. That securities lending revenue is added to the dividends that are distr...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does securities lending matter more than expense ratios?
Replies: 28
Views: 1619

Re: Reporter doing story on pitfalls of doing one's own taxe

There are six education deductions/credits. There are multiple definitions of a child. The rules for IRA, 401k, 403, 457, etc are different (e.g., you can withdraw from an IRA for a first-home purchase, but not from a 401k). None of this is the IRS's fault. Good point. Congress creates tax law. The...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 22, 2015 9:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reporter doing story on pitfalls of doing one's own taxes
Replies: 40
Views: 4629

Re: Efficient markets: luck v. skill

The question as OP asked it is nearly unanswerable. Nearly, in the sense of even in principle; and unanswerable, in the sense of even in practice. A better question is: Some investors and investment managers have generated higher-than-market returns. Can we demonstrate, in a refuting-the-null-hypoth...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 22, 2015 9:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient markets: luck v. skill
Replies: 27
Views: 1692

Re: Microsoft Money Plus Sunset

...I have learned of MS Money Plus Sunset and understand that it is available from Microsoft at no cost. I am hoping that someone here has had some experience with the product and can pass on some information and comment. I've been using MS Money since the 1990s. 1. Am I correct that it is free and...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 22, 2015 9:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Microsoft Money Plus Sunset
Replies: 12
Views: 1302

Re: Non Dividend Paying Stocks in Index Mutual Funds?

Yes, cap-weighted total-market indices, and many others, include non-dividend-paying stocks along with their payout-inclined brethren. The real measure isn't cash payouts, but earnings. PJW So, trying to understand this. Take VTSAX TSM fund for example. Yes, good choice, let's do that. TSM fund onl...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 22, 2015 8:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Non Dividend Paying Stocks in Index Mutual Funds?
Replies: 6
Views: 810

Re: "The ABCs of Common Sense Investing"

Where's Edward Gorey when we need 'im?
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 22, 2015 7:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The ABCs of Common Sense Investing"
Replies: 11
Views: 1651

Re: [Poll] Do u believe in weak/semi/strong EMH? (multi opti

Aye (opposite of 'u') believe only in what Aye know. What Aye know changes over time as: a) Aye learn more; and b) the world changes around me in ways that Aye notice. Whether that means Aye'm a freethinker, or among the offspring of the Enlightenment, or eternally darned to be a daemon from heck, t...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 22, 2015 7:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Do u believe in weak/semi/strong EMH? (multi options)
Replies: 11
Views: 689

Re: Does securities lending matter more than expense ratios?

No, it does not matter more. It also doesn't matter less. Revenues from securities lending count directly against fund expenses. Vanguard, which many of us here have chosen to use, maintains a policy of lending rare securities at high rates, and demanding, successfully, more-than-market-value as col...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 22, 2015 7:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does securities lending matter more than expense ratios?
Replies: 28
Views: 1619

Re: Reporter doing story on pitfalls of doing one's own taxe

I'm not interested in being interviewed, but will pile on in this thread. I'm an advocate of filling out one's own tax forms and working out the numbers. I use a calculator, not a pencil and paper. Calculators are devices which free us from the arithmetic so we can focus on the mathematics. Commerci...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 22, 2015 5:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reporter doing story on pitfalls of doing one's own taxes
Replies: 40
Views: 4629

Re: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?

knpstr wrote:So the best way to explain it/convince people of what it is, is to say what it's not?

Kindly read my posts before responding to them.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?
Replies: 247
Views: 11597

Re: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?

... What's an easy way to convince freshman college students of EMH in 5 minutes? For certain individuals it's enough to explain it. For many more, college freshmen or otherwise, it goes against closely-held beliefs. There is no easy way to convince those people. It also goes against widely-held mi...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?
Replies: 247
Views: 11597

Re: $50,000 to invest, want little to no risk. CDs? Silver?

CD's and silver in the same breath? Surely you must be joking.... I thought that from the subject title, but OP did explain s/he is new at this and has little knowledge. I can easily see somebody who hasn't followed markets having the impression silver is among the safe choices, although clearly it...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $50,000 to invest, want little to no risk. CDs? Silver? Etc?
Replies: 32
Views: 2639

Re: Non Dividend Paying Stocks in Index Mutual Funds?

You ask an interesting variation on an oft-asked question. Indeed, there are a number of ideas, most concretely stated by the Dividend Discount Model , which hold stocks are worth the present discounted value of their presently estimated (because nobody truly knows, but that by itself is the case fo...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Non Dividend Paying Stocks in Index Mutual Funds?
Replies: 6
Views: 810

Re: Asset allocation & taxes

There's a very common misperception, so common nobody should feel bad about having shared it - I personally certainly did - that there exists a fundamental difference between a Roth and a traditional IRA (or 401(k)). They turn out to be equivalent, if we hold all other factors equal, as one would to...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation & taxes
Replies: 7
Views: 644

Re: Setting price limit for ETF

It makes sense, generally and usually, to place a limit order. You say you don't want to, but you also say you want the advantages of having done so. If you place a buy market order, you get the price the most eager seller is asking. A sell market order is filled at the most eager buyer's offer pric...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:07 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Setting price limit for ETF
Replies: 22
Views: 1191

Re: Yet another international equity inquiry...

Indeed, theory suggests that in US dollar terms unhedged international stocks, indexed or otherwise, will be more volatile than US ones because of currency fluctuations. That remains the case even when taking multiple currencies into account across the globe. Theory also suggests that wider diversif...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jan 19, 2015 11:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Yet another international equity inquiry...
Replies: 2
Views: 342

Re: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?

... ... nobody I know of has been able to propose a test which could definitively falsify it. Wikipedia: Argument from ignorance: It asserts that a proposition is true because it has not yet been proven false. ... It remains at best a hypothesis, and hasn't risen to the level of a theory. ... I nev...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?
Replies: 247
Views: 11597

Re: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?

Is there an authoritative, precise statement of the efficient market hypothesis that makes testable predictions ? ... Aye, there's the rub. Although the weak form can hardly help but to be mostly true, given the structure of capital markets, and the semi-strong can hardly help but to be true after ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?
Replies: 247
Views: 11597

Re: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?

... ...Meanwhile, waiting on the EMH proof, that doesn't get a good faith pass either. ... (Internal ellipsis original.) You're the one making the specific claim, that Buffett's investment results falsify the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which, as merely a hypothesis, hasn't been claimed as true in...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?
Replies: 247
Views: 11597

Re: What counts as "saving"?

Fair enough, kmok. If I implied discussing accepted methods is not useful I misspoke. That said, I don't see the unity between discussing them and reading "'We saved 50% every year and now we're multimillionaires' (paraphrasing)." I certainly do not, in any serious sense, suggest buying a ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jan 19, 2015 7:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What counts as "saving"?
Replies: 128
Views: 6658

Re: What counts as "saving"?

At this point in the discussion, let's acknowledge the difference between a balance sheet and a cash flow statement. Taking one position rather than the other can be valid under individual circumstances, but I'd like to suggest we're not really disagreeing over that part.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What counts as "saving"?
Replies: 128
Views: 6658

Re: What counts as "saving"?

... So while extra principal payments are strictly delayed spending, they have the good effect of reducing the expense of borrowing all that money... I view principal payments, of which I'm happy I no longer have to make any (other than paying all credit card bills in full each month), extra or oth...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:26 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What counts as "saving"?
Replies: 128
Views: 6658

Re: What counts as "saving"?

... I doubt the distinction will affect my own actions at all. But when reading the advice to "save XX% of your income," or when reading of people saying "We saved 50% every year and now we're multimillionaires" (paraphrasing), I get to wondering what exactly people consider to ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What counts as "saving"?
Replies: 128
Views: 6658

Re: What counts as "saving"?

In my personal finance arrangements, for which I have no reference but simply made up over the years, saving is spending less than I budgeted. Planned infusions of income into investment accounts are investing , as is doing the same with non-regular income, like bonuses and the money from exercised ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What counts as "saving"?
Replies: 128
Views: 6658

Re: The DOW: An Index I Love to Hate

Christine_NM wrote:...
I read years ago that the Dow stocks used to time splits so as to keep their prices in roughly the same range. That doesn't seem to be true anymore, if it ever was.

I didn't find any definitive statement about that, but still, whatever gets measured gets optimized. :happy
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jan 19, 2015 4:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The DOW: An Index I Love to Hate
Replies: 27
Views: 1931

Re: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?

Wouldn't the party "out of the loop," as you put it, be trading in a securities market? And wouldn't they, if they placed a market order, buy from the most eager seller or sell to the most eager buyer? Brokers have a duty, not always fully carried out, to obtain best execution for their cu...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?
Replies: 247
Views: 11597

Re: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?

... I think it is obvious that a "market" only exists where a buyer/seller agree on a price, but that price can be "wrong". The seller may not have proper understanding of all the information. ... Which is to say you personally take issue with one or the other of the parties', o...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Jan 19, 2015 12:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?
Replies: 247
Views: 11597

Re: how to get a reference from a current employer?

Maybe we all misunderstand. If I was responding to a question directed to somebody other than me, I apologize. If I didn't, I am not going to name any names other than my own anonymous one.

Whether or not I misunderstood, I stand by my every word.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how to get a reference from a current employer?
Replies: 16
Views: 1232

Re: how to get a reference from a current employer?

I disagree... HR is NEVER on the employee's side.... Have you worked with someone in a more senior position outside of your direct boss? I have, including negotiating employment contracts with both recruits and renewing employees in several countries where such contracts are customary. HR, although...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how to get a reference from a current employer?
Replies: 16
Views: 1232

Re: Yet another online banking thread

I like money.

If I have to spend a few minutes a year on record keeping to get more of it, I view the choice as a no-brainer.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Yet another online banking thread
Replies: 11
Views: 780

Re: how to get a reference from a current employer?

I would explain the dilemma to your HR contact at the potential new employer and work out a plan with them. They will, being in HR, thoroughly understand the importance of not burning any bridge you've yet to cross.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how to get a reference from a current employer?
Replies: 16
Views: 1232

Re: F Fund and the Fed

No one believes in timing the market, but when an increase by the Fed is almost certain, wouldn't it make sense to shift to the G? No, it would not, given your time horizon. The Fed directly sets two rates, and has great influence over a third. It sets the rate it pays on reserves, that is, funds c...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jan 18, 2015 8:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: F Fund and the Fed
Replies: 8
Views: 656

Re: US/foreign allocation under massive relative US drop

... So you believe that, in a 20/80 event, you would rebalance Total US/Total International back to 60/40 (or 25/15)? I don't believe much of anything in particular, but yes, that's my plan, and I sincerely hope my hypothetical future self would stick to it, rather than react emotionally and mess u...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jan 18, 2015 6:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US/foreign allocation under massive relative US drop
Replies: 21
Views: 1411

Re: US/foreign allocation under massive relative US drop

... To clarify: I'm asking about what a rational investor should do in each situation, and want some exploration of that. I am not asking for personal portfolio advice. And evidently I wasn't clear. A rational investor will carefully consider asset allocation questions, make decisions, then impleme...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US/foreign allocation under massive relative US drop
Replies: 21
Views: 1411

Re: US/foreign allocation under massive relative US drop

Good, now we're getting somewhere. Do you want 50/50 forever, or global market cap forever? If the former, don't even consider the total global fund. It won't meet your objective. To put it another way, I see you asking which fund(s) to buy without having first identified your asset allocation. I ma...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US/foreign allocation under massive relative US drop
Replies: 21
Views: 1411

Re: Investing for 18year old and 23year old

Hi Kris, thanks for the additional information, but that's the purpose of the Asking Portfolio Questions format I linked to. It's to avoid details coming out in dribs and drabs, thereby wasting the time of the people trying to help. You don't have to provide all of it, of course, if you don't want t...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing for 18year old and 23year old
Replies: 14
Views: 1056

Re: US/foreign allocation under massive relative US drop

... Tax-adjusted, VT may end up being cheaper than VTI+VXUS, even with the slightly higher expense ratio. ER + tax cost ratio difference at M* looks like noise, for VT vs. VXUS+VTI. A bigger question to me is behavior in the event of extreme swings, e.g., a 20/80 event. Since you'll have no need to...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jan 18, 2015 5:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US/foreign allocation under massive relative US drop
Replies: 21
Views: 1411

Re: F Fund and the Fed

Given your time horizon, which covers your whole retired period, not just its first day, it's significantly farther away than the average duration of the F fund, which, given its benchmark, must be in the 5 - 6 year vicinity, so any higher overnight rates the Fed sets that carry through to intermedi...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jan 18, 2015 4:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: F Fund and the Fed
Replies: 8
Views: 656

Re: Fastest way to transfer cash from Fidelity to Vanguard

... I don't see any options in Vanguard account maintenance to do this. In my Fidelity account, when I go to add a bank for Electronic Funds Transfer, it says it treats brokerage accounts like checking accounts, but I don't understand how the routing and account numbers would apply to, for instance...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jan 18, 2015 4:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fastest way to transfer cash from Fidelity to Vanguard
Replies: 7
Views: 499

Re: US/foreign allocation under massive relative US drop

... Option 1 has the bonus of automatic rebalancing without the need for monitoring and/or capital gains taxes. (For me, this would mostly be occurring in a taxable account.) ... Option 2 (separate funds initially at global cap weight) shares that characteristic. Each index fund will rise and fall,...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jan 18, 2015 4:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US/foreign allocation under massive relative US drop
Replies: 21
Views: 1411

Re: Investing for 18year old and 23year old

Hi Kris, and welcome to the forum! We need much more information to make any recommendations. In addition, what are their goals? Each has, after all, reached the age of majority. For example, does either have special needs? Does either have unconventional ambitions? Any and all information like that...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jan 18, 2015 4:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing for 18year old and 23year old
Replies: 14
Views: 1056

Re: Why I like this forum

Exposing a point from a PM I sent regarding BH "censorship," freedom of speech applies to all of us. Freedom of the press applies only to those who own one. Alex owns this one. The rest of us are free, and at little expense in our modern world, to buy an electronic press so we can publish,...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:52 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Why I like this forum
Replies: 34
Views: 2249

Re: 401k brokerage fee for Vanguard funds

Further to dbr's point, there are five Institutional Index fund share classes each with its own expense ratio: Investor: 0.17% Admiral: 0.05% Institutional: 0.04% Institutional Plus: 0.02% Trust: "Pricing flexibility is available." If you can work out the Institutional Index share class an...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k brokerage fee for Vanguard funds
Replies: 8
Views: 647

Re: 401k brokerage fee for Vanguard funds

Hi shoppingchicken, and welcome to the forum! Fees and expenses are very important issues in a 401(k), so you're right to bring them up as a concern. There is no applicable general rule regarding 401(k) fees in addition to mutual fund expense ratios. Maybe all JPMorgan-administered 401(k)s have the ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k brokerage fee for Vanguard funds
Replies: 8
Views: 647
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