Search found 3754 matches

by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash is king over short-term bonds
Replies: 58
Views: 4966

Re: Cash is king over short-term bonds

... It's less about comparable interest rates, and more about the risk of loss when interest rates go up. If you hold and reinvest interest (dividends in the case of bond funds), then over time interest rate increases are good for investors. The period of time is less for short-term bonds, and more...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the market go up forever?
Replies: 65
Views: 4475

Re: Can the market go up forever?

... Yes I meant a very long time. I guess it is not something to worry about in my life time or the next few generations. However it still seems to me that if in deed the stock market can't go up exponentially (after inflation) forever then at some point index investing will stop working . Or at be...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the market go up forever?
Replies: 65
Views: 4475

Re: Can the market go up forever?

Herbert Stein wrote:If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the market go up forever?
Replies: 65
Views: 4475

Re: Can the market go up forever?

Forever, as they say, is a very long time. So no, not literally, but you probably weren't asking literally. Can the market go up sort of generally but not in a steady way during our lifetimes and, for those with bequest motives, several generations longer? I'd say yes. Is can == will? I'd say no. An...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does this one-fund portfolio make sense?
Replies: 12
Views: 888

Re: Does this one-fund portfolio make sense?

... Does that make sense or am I worrying too much about the risk of bonds? Hi RetireOnceAndEarly, and welcome to the forum! If you're comfortable with the risk of loss in stocks, you should be multiply comfortable with the risk in bonds. Fixed income is simply, and inherently, less risky than stoc...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Include Cash in Asset Allocation?
Replies: 7
Views: 416

Re: Include Cash in Asset Allocation?

So should my AA be something like 65% stock, 25% bonds and 10% cash etc? Or should I just keep it simple and split stocks and bonds and then have a separate emergency fund / savings account? Cheers I'd say it's a matter of how you think about it. If you would have the same value in stocks, bonds, a...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Managed Accounts
Replies: 12
Views: 484

Re: Managed Accounts

Hi FleurdlisFan4ever, and welcome to the forum! I think you'll find that here most posters suggest not using things like Fidelity's strategic funds (although there is a faction which does advocate such an approach, but doing it on one's own - if any wish to chime in I'll let them speak for themselve...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new Schwab password format available (yeah!)
Replies: 4
Views: 294

Re: new Schwab password format available (yeah!)

Thanks for the info, and it worked for me. I use their 2FA, and can confirm that: 1) You can still enter the digits after your regular password in the same field; and 2) If you don't you're still prompted to enter the number, rather than just being denied login. 2FA was pretty good on its own. Now I...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Aug 28, 2015 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Include Cash in Asset Allocation?
Replies: 7
Views: 416

Re: Include Cash in Asset Allocation?

Cash in a retirement account certainly should be counted as part of the portfolio's asset allocation. I could question why you hold cash there, but it's up to you. It goes in the fixed income category, along with bonds, CDs, savings bonds, and the like. An emergency fund, or money earmarked for a sp...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bounced back too quick
Replies: 33
Views: 5689

Re: Bounced back too quick

... Folks in separate-fund 3-fund portfolios may not have rebalanced at all. I didn't, although I'm 3-fund (plus TIPS) as my model, and literally more than four due to 401(k) options, CDs, and I Bonds. All that happened is I went from about 2.5% heavy in stocks, well within my tolerance band, to ab...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bounced back too quick
Replies: 33
Views: 5689

Re: Bounced back too quick

The last day and today - the big caps have nice moves. What is disconcerting is that the small caps (iwn, iwo and iwc) are lagging during this period - as they have for months now. ... I had understood the small cap outperformance, it it's there, only shows up reliably over periods of decades, and ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8035

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

^^^^ I was responding to one of the specific questions you asked: "Is this just driven by institutional investors moving large sums of money into both funds at the same time , thus moving their prices at the same time?" The answer to your question, as I explained, is no. Most of the assets...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Aug 26, 2015 8:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any minimum income for Obamacare subsidies?
Replies: 30
Views: 2096

Re: Any minimum income for Obamacare subsidies?

... No! A tax filer whose income falls below the poverty line is not liable to pay back any advanced premium tax credit subsidies! Read the footnotes in the table in your linked document, which states "Note: Enrollees with incomes that fall below poverty at the time of reconciliation are not e...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Aug 26, 2015 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8035

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

Does anyone understand the cause of this week's crash There has been no crash. It, so far, is called a correction, and on average they happen every year or two, and today's uptick may even have ended the corection. If you think a correction is a crash, you'd be best advised to get out of Dodge equi...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Aug 26, 2015 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any minimum income for Obamacare subsidies?
Replies: 30
Views: 2096

Re: Any minimum income for Obamacare subsidies?

Hi Blueskies123, The answer is... Wait for it... It depends! The main thing it depends on is whether your state has, or will have by the beginning of 2016 (or maybe, by the beginning of open enrollment for 2016 on 1 November 2015) expanded Medicaid. Here's a list. Now, the most important thing for y...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Aug 26, 2015 7:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any minimum income for Obamacare subsidies?
Replies: 30
Views: 2096

Re: Any minimum income for Obamacare subsidies?

This is a general comment and is not aimed at muddlehead personally: Talk of "subsidies" obscures the fact that they are refundable income tax credits. It isn't clear to me why people who understand that might think they can receive an income tax credit without filing an income tax return....
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Aug 26, 2015 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any minimum income for Obamacare subsidies?
Replies: 30
Views: 2096

Re: Any minimum income for Obamacare subsidies?

Just 100% lazy. Too many ridiculous numbers IMHO. The whole poverty level multiplied by xxx whatever. Income $9093. Check. Premiums paid monthly. Check. Everyone move along. This year, though, I will be careful to to take IRA distributions to get just over the poverty level figure... Good luck with...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Aug 26, 2015 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any minimum income for Obamacare subsidies?
Replies: 30
Views: 2096

Re: Any minimum income for Obamacare subsidies?

^ That's a good point to keep in mind, that to receive the premium tax credit, or if it was paid out in advance to the insurance company then in order not to have to pay it back, requires the filing of a tax return, including, as you said, form 8962. Why did you only partially fill the latter out? I...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Aug 26, 2015 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any minimum income for Obamacare subsidies?
Replies: 30
Views: 2096

Re: Any minimum income for Obamacare subsidies?

Out of curiosity question: Suppose my income is technically below the poverty level but I otherwise have plenty of assets. And I live in a state that expanded Medicaid. If I want to buy a private health plan, is the insurance company obligated to take me or can they reject me because I'm eligible f...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Aug 26, 2015 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE indicates that international weighting offers better returns
Replies: 8
Views: 795

Re: CAPE indicates that international weighting offers better returns

... Quote from abstract: "... A number of European equity markets in particular, but also selected emerging markets, currently display significant undervaluations and offer strategic investors interesting opportunities for exposure." I believe those to be tactical investors , the ones who...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any minimum income for Obamacare subsidies?
Replies: 30
Views: 2096

Re: Any minimum income for Obamacare subsidies?

For the premium tax credit, one must have a modified adjusted gross income (for ACA purposes) at least 100% of the federal poverty guideline for the previous year , therefore 2015's guideline is used to set 2016's tax credit. For those in states which have expanded Medicaid, that becomes 138%, becau...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Aug 23, 2015 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are you being GREEDY when others are fearful?
Replies: 84
Views: 11449

Re: How are you being greedy when others are fearful?

How? By not being so.

Why would I change my investing strategy based on the (presumed in a sort of everybody-is-stupid-but-me way) emotions of others?

I'm a frayed knot.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Original Research] [Theory] The Optimal Portolio
Replies: 40
Views: 3211

Re: [Original Research] [Theory] The Optimal Portolio

rca1824 wrote:Finally a rational framework for deciding asset allocation.
...

Finally! No more irrational asset allocations!

rca1824 wrote:Thoughts? Suggestions? Expansions? Any parameter combinations you want to see?

No. None. Thank you for offering.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Aug 23, 2015 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple 4 fund maybe 5?
Replies: 7
Views: 1058

Re: Simple 4 fund maybe 5?

... Yes, too bad future predictions aren't as accurate as backtesting. :) ... Indeed. With backtesting, all you need in order to win is a time machine. I'd tell you when you'll be able rent one, except my crystal ball is in the shop. It's awaiting delivery of an (required by municipal ordinance, fo...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Aug 23, 2015 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy, Hold, Sell
Replies: 14
Views: 2000

Re: Buy, Hold, Sell

... Just wondering about why I don't hear more discuss a hold strategy. ... For two reasons. The "more" are either: A) trying to sell you high-cost high-transaction investments upon which they make money instead of you; or B) trying to get you attentive and emotionally worked up so you'll...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Aug 23, 2015 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is Your Plan B if Quicken dies? [Intuit selling Quicken unit]
Replies: 56
Views: 5650

Re: What is Your Plan B if Quicken dies?

... Maybe you're using it to track lots and cost basis? Enlighten me , why do you care about two and a half decades of transactions? Presumably that's aimed at me, since I'm the one who said 25 years. I don't need the information, which I made clear in my post. I like having access to more of my hi...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Aug 23, 2015 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transfer money to online bank account
Replies: 16
Views: 1541

Re: Transfer money to online bank account

... I usually see trade settlements referred to as T+3, so trade on Monday settles on Thursday, which is indeed three business days the way I count. ... You're right. I should stop including similar situations in posts, because those are where I mess up. Yes, if you trade a stock on Monday, settlem...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Aug 23, 2015 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone with experience taking a voluntary (pre-retirement) break from employment?
Replies: 29
Views: 4073

Re: Anyone with experience taking a voluntary (pre-retirement) break from employment?

Yeah. I quit my pretty-good-in-conventional-terms job I couldn't stand and went for my second graduate degree, which took three years full time (it's a terminal degree). There were no part time programs in the subject. After I graduated I started a business in my new field, which ran for about four ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Aug 23, 2015 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transfer money to online bank account
Replies: 16
Views: 1541

Re: Transfer money to online bank account

^^ You can count however you like, but the standard is to include the day the transaction is initiated, if before cutoff, as a day, therefore it's quoted as three business days, just like settlement of stock trades.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Aug 23, 2015 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transfer money to online bank account
Replies: 16
Views: 1541

Re: Transfer money to online bank account

I agree with the others to use a pull transaction from the online bank.

Yes, at least during the brief time I had a relationship with them, BofA does charge you to use their platform to move money elsewhere.

The time was very brief.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Aug 23, 2015 12:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is Your Plan B if Quicken dies? [Intuit selling Quicken unit]
Replies: 56
Views: 5650

Re: What is Your Plan B if Quicken dies?

Painful is a good description of how it felt to me, but in my case I failed, and I'm no slouch when it comes to IT.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Aug 23, 2015 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does the broker track Wash Sales
Replies: 4
Views: 337

Re: Does the broker track Wash Sales

Maybe they will, though I'd be surprised, but who knows what a broker's policy will be without reading the details. Even if they do, it isn't definitive. Your ESPP broker doesn't, and indeed can't, know if you have other assets elsewhere, and if you've purchased your employer's stock there. Tracking...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Aug 23, 2015 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is Your Plan B if Quicken dies? [Intuit selling Quicken unit]
Replies: 56
Views: 5650

Re: What is Your Plan B if Quicken dies?

My plan B was plan C when Microsoft discontinued MS Money (which, therefore, is now a free download ) four years ago. At that point I had 21 years of financial history in it. Now I have 25. Plan A was to port my data to MoneyDance or a couple of others I don't remember offhand, that don't soak peopl...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Aug 23, 2015 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Loss in portfolio makes me spend more, do you ?
Replies: 30
Views: 2584

Re: Loss in portfolio makes me spend more, do you ?

Sounds like a negative wealth effect.

In my case, no, I don't do what you did, nor do I spend either more or less at the end of up weeks. I have assets, and I have a budget. The latter does not change due to minor value fluctuations in the former.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Aug 23, 2015 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Substantially Identical?
Replies: 15
Views: 1335

Re: Substantially Identical?

Andy, It took some effort to track things down among the references to threads with references to threads with references, but between all of them you did post enough information for me to find and read at least a few decisions. I concede the point that securities with different CUSIPs may be substa...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat Aug 22, 2015 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Substantially Identical?
Replies: 15
Views: 1335

Re: Substantially Identical?

^^ I see. You have no rulings to cite. From the referenced pdf: This white paper is a work in progress. We are currently requesting comments on its contents as we complete the final version of this paper. Please send your comments to jmichaels@g2ft.com. We look forward to hearing from you. g2ft.com ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat Aug 22, 2015 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Substantially Identical?
Replies: 15
Views: 1335

Re: Substantially Identical?

... I believe there is a Tax Court ruling that two Treasury bonds that aren't identical are considered "substantially identical". I recall that the maturity dates of the two were not identical, but close to each other. Same for the interest rate. This is a helpful example to understand wh...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks for the Long Run? Really?
Replies: 29
Views: 4683

Re: "Stocks for the Long Run? Really?

^ In statistics, one states one's hypothesis first, and the null hypothesis, including what margin of error one will accept, and then tests.

Searching for data to support an ideological position post hoc, and accepting only those data that support it, is data mining.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat Aug 22, 2015 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks for the Long Run? Really?
Replies: 29
Views: 4683

Re: "Stocks for the Long Run? Really?

Psst, don't look now, but that pesky element 79 is up WAY more than any of those from the beginning of 2000 to today: Jan 4, 2000: 282.05 Aug 21, 2015: 1156.50 which is an increase of 310%. So gold is the best for the long run! :sharebeer Funny, I feel, how you only ever post after short-term rises...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Substantially Identical?
Replies: 15
Views: 1335

Re: Substantially Identical?

Outside of funds, "substantially identical," in practice, means having the same CUSIP number. I think, but can't prove, that congress intended the wording to prevent anybody from successfully avoiding a wash sale by arguing "but your honor, the xyz corp shares I bought weren't literal...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat Aug 22, 2015 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long will you"Stay the Course"?
Replies: 99
Views: 8662

Re: How long will you"Stay the Course"?

Until and beyond the time horizon at which very minor, completely expected fluctuations in stock prices, such as those this past trading week, do not prompt threads challenging the idea of staying the course over the long run. :wink:
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: retirees should focus on dividends
Replies: 157
Views: 15494

Re: Bogle: retirees should focus on dividends

I guess I don't see a big problem if a retiree wants to tilt to dividend stocks to increase their income, which will decrease their need to take risk, and perhaps allow a smaller allocation to stocks. Kevin That sentence makes no sense. It is a paradigm for why this discussion never gets resolved. ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got a great entry level full time offer (70K + 10K signing bonus), not sure if I should accept or decline
Replies: 35
Views: 4389

Re: Got a great entry level full time offer (70K + 10K signing bonus), not sure if I should accept or decline

... Who would you consult with, and about what? PJW I was hoping to go into strategy consulting but I'm open to other options if I go forward applying. Luckily the offer I have currently isn't investment banking, and its more of a middle office position so the hours are much more reasonable (8-6 us...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to look up the tracking error of Vanguard funds
Replies: 22
Views: 1152

Re: How to look up the tracking error of Vanguard funds

... There's a lot of interest in shorting solar stocks, I guess. ... The sun burns 600,000,000, six hundred million, 6 x 10^8, (short - we'll get back to this word in a moment) tons of hydrogen per second , and all doing so accomplishes is just barely to resist what otherwise would be the sun's gra...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to look up the tracking error of Vanguard funds
Replies: 22
Views: 1152

Re: How to look up the tracking error of Vanguard funds

^^^ Yes, precisely like that. :happy For international funds there's usually an illusion of a big gap, because of fair value pricing . Before it was instituted, in-the-know investors could steal money from the other fund shareholders by taking into account likely value changes between the time the f...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Aug 21, 2015 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to look up the tracking error of Vanguard funds
Replies: 22
Views: 1152

Re: How to look up the tracking error of Vanguard funds

So, you're not so much saying Vanguard doesn't publish it, as you're saying Morningstar doesn't do the subtraction for you? That seems quite a different issue, to me.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Aug 21, 2015 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to look up the tracking error of Vanguard funds
Replies: 22
Views: 1152

Re: How to look up the tracking error of Vanguard funds

Of course they publish it. Check the annual reports, in which they list both fund performance and index performance, then subtract the former from the latter.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Aug 21, 2015 6:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got a great entry level full time offer (70K + 10K signing bonus), not sure if I should accept or decline
Replies: 35
Views: 4389

Re: Got a great entry level full time offer (70K + 10K signing bonus), not sure if I should accept or decline

Who would you consult with, and about what? There are consulting firms, but at the entry level they're barely more than temp agencies with more job stability and higher pay. The money in consulting is once you're a recognized expert in something. Then you consult about that. The job offer you have s...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Aug 21, 2015 6:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: With Stock Market heading south
Replies: 95
Views: 11252

Re: With Stock Market heading south

... At this point, I don't see a resemblance between the events of 2008 and current events. ... Good points overall, but I want to say that in 2008 nobody saw a resemblance between what turned out to be the events of 2008 - 2009 and then-current events. Maybe you can name a permabear or two who sai...

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