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Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Larry's words again, as has repeatedly been the case in this thread, stand on their heads. He both claims and disclaims statistical relevance in the same paragraph.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Nov 26, 2014 11:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 112
Views: 7740

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

... Can you give me a specific example of the type of claim for which statistics have been offered in support but which in fact cannot be supported by statistics? Or a specific example of a null hypothesis in finance that cannot be refuted by statistics? ... We are not engaging in a debate about a ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Nov 26, 2014 8:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 112
Views: 7740

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

The disputed claim is statistics which clearly cannot refute any reasonable null hypothesis at any applicable t-stat are evidence for anything at all.

The disputed claim is not somebody's gut feel tells them the observed numbers can't possibly be random.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Nov 26, 2014 7:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 112
Views: 7740

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Paragraph dissected and inverted. For reference, here's what CFM wrote in its original form: Okay, so there's a difference between perfectly practiced experimental science and what's possible in financial research. I think everyone would agree with that. So that must not be the actual disagreement t...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Nov 26, 2014 6:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 112
Views: 7740

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Ugliness? When people debate serious issues, they advance new arguments and refute arguments advanced by the other side . Inevitably, arguments and rebuttals extend beyond the initial issue. New arguments have enriched this discussion and made it more interesting than if it were confined to a jar o...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Nov 26, 2014 5:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 112
Views: 7740

Re: POLL: Attitude Towards Risk

That was really meant to be $240 and not $250? Yes. Ordinary respondents in more controlled environments go for A and D. The idea being that they avoid risk when it comes to gains and seek risk when it comes to avoiding losses. Now that you've given away the answer, how could "science" be...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Nov 26, 2014 4:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: Attitude Towards Risk
Replies: 40
Views: 1031

Re: Best way to pay my parents back

Unless you and your wife expect to leave an estate worth well over ten million inflation-adjusted dollars, the only thing exceeding $56,000 in a year does is makes you fill out an extra form for your tax return. It isn't even clear to me the debt repayment is a gift. Is there any interest? If not, f...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Nov 26, 2014 4:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best way to pay my parents back
Replies: 5
Views: 623

Re: POLL: Attitude Towards Risk

I get it. Loss aversion.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Nov 26, 2014 3:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: Attitude Towards Risk
Replies: 40
Views: 1031

Re: bond fund yield variation and the case for long-term fun

Further to David's TIPS point, the income stream from the long-term nominal fund, if one goes that route, will lose purchasing power over time unless one reinvests that part of the distributions which represent realized inflation , and there's no guarantee the distribution, even if all is reinvested...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Nov 26, 2014 2:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bond fund yield variation and the case for long-term fund
Replies: 18
Views: 1195

Re: Commodity Index Fund(s)

TIPS only buffer the inflation on the dollars that are invested in them. There are no methods to hedge inflation , but the financial industry will bring to market something that almost matches whatever you fear. Thus, the use of collateralized commodity futures (CCF) funds that are actively managed...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Nov 26, 2014 2:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Commodity Index Fund(s)
Replies: 7
Views: 611

Re: Favorite nonfiction books

I have read some of those posted, not read some others, but disagree with none. One particular favorite of mine I've not seen above, which depicts the life of a common sailor in the 19th Century, written by a successful politician and lawyer who spent two years of his early adulthood living that lif...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Wed Nov 26, 2014 1:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite nonfiction books
Replies: 59
Views: 2555

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Yes, sorry, Larry, it does mean precisely that. You're applying a statistical tool to a realm in which, as you conceded upthread, it is not applicable. In any field in which it does apply a researcher of course will be able to answer a simple question about evidence which runs against their conclusi...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Tue Nov 25, 2014 7:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 112
Views: 7740

Re: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?

... Off with their heads! L. That's why I prefer my purchased and carefully cultivated position as deuce of clubs. No head to have off with. Saves a lot of thinking, as well. The only thing I'm required to do all day is lie about drinking mead and eating roast boar. [After a lot of thinking my lack...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?
Replies: 81
Views: 6544

Re: A Good Trip Overseas

Speaking more seriously, when I finally was able to articulate what I wanted to accomplish w.r.t. travel, I visited the remaining places from highest- to lowest-difficulty, including assuming I'd need to bring along any prospective future less-adventurous SO. SO, do you have places you've always wan...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A Good Trip Overseas
Replies: 17
Views: 1585

Re: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?

I wonder if posters can actually agree on what a realist is, or even an extreme pessimist. It's my phrase and, as Humpty-Dumpty said, it means just what I choose it to mean. ... It's true. I'm among the words(miths) who come see Humpty Dumpty Leeraar of a Saturday night for to get my wages, you kno...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Nov 24, 2014 7:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?
Replies: 81
Views: 6544

Re: % of REITs in VG Funds

You list only international funds. REITs are a US invention. Some other countries have adopted them, but I believe not to the same extent. Vanguard's international real estate index fund includes many RE-industry companies, lots of which are not not legally organized as REIT equivalents. No US fund ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Nov 24, 2014 7:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: % of REITs in VG Funds
Replies: 3
Views: 984

Re: A Good Trip Overseas

Any overseas trip you can walk away from is a good one.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Nov 24, 2014 7:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A Good Trip Overseas
Replies: 17
Views: 1585

Re: I Bond Refund Tax Year 2014 $5K Per Return

Thanks both Dutch and Bobby. Yes, although I do send in estimated taxes, there's no necessity to pay the extra $5,000 until a couple of days before filing. I plan to file as soon as I can to get the clock started on the one- and and five-year waiting periods, but indeed, I probably can earn a few ex...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Nov 24, 2014 6:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bond Refund Tax Year 2014 $5K Per Return
Replies: 11
Views: 1074

Re: What-If Planning Advice

dbr wrote:...
Just as "tax deductible contribution" can drive one crazy. Not that I donate more or less on that account, but it gets tiresome hearing it all the time.

Is this pledge week for your local PBS station? :happy
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Nov 24, 2014 6:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What-If Planning Advice
Replies: 9
Views: 991

Re: Why Alpha is getting more elusive

Agreeing with all, and Larry are we still friends?, I'm beginning to fear another problem, not a market problem or a portfolio difficulty, but one of terminology. Many decades ago, after the lessons taught us by the horrors of WWII, a new artistic, and literary, and philosophical landscape appeared ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Nov 24, 2014 5:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Alpha is getting more elusive
Replies: 28
Views: 3315

Re: What-If Planning Advice

Is it definitely or probably the case that, after the move is accomplished, you will have enough in Schedule A deductions to exceed the standard deduction each year? If not, then the answer to your question is it won't make any difference at all. That's a point often glossed over by real estate sale...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Nov 24, 2014 4:48 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What-If Planning Advice
Replies: 9
Views: 991

Re: Index Funds, REIT's, Real Estate, Swing Trading, Forex

RE flipping....would you do the work yourself, or do you see yourself as hiring the work to be done by others? I would do it with my friends who can do about 50% work themselves and 50% with another professional with whom they have been working for a while . [attribution for the embedded quote adde...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Mon Nov 24, 2014 4:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Index Funds, REIT's, Real Estate, Swing Trading, Forex
Replies: 17
Views: 1497

Re: I Bond Refund Tax Year 2014 $5K Per Return

Understood, Tamales, and I didn't mean to imply any wrong intent on your part. I was responding only to the words you chose. It certainly is possible to take the full $5,000 as paper I Bonds even if one doesn't know until completing one's return how much they owe or are due. Simply calculate your ta...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Nov 23, 2014 11:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bond Refund Tax Year 2014 $5K Per Return
Replies: 11
Views: 1074

Re: I Bond Refund Tax Year 2014 $5K Per Return

I've never really considered this before. So is it to be taken literally, and you can only buy the I-bonds if you are getting a Federal tax refund, not if you owe? (seems like an odd limitation if true. Encourages overpayment of taxes just to qualify .) If I may, I think that's an overly conspirato...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Nov 23, 2014 9:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bond Refund Tax Year 2014 $5K Per Return
Replies: 11
Views: 1074

I Bond Refund Tax Year 2014 $5K Per Return

The IRS has removed the draft designation from its 2014 form 8888 . It still says $5,000 in paper I Bonds are available as part of a tax refund. I, despite the 0.00% real rate and for reasons I've disclosed in other threads, plan to send in an extra $5,000 through EFTPS on 15 Jan and file electronic...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Nov 23, 2014 7:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bond Refund Tax Year 2014 $5K Per Return
Replies: 11
Views: 1074

Re: Want to Save Money: Be grateful

I've read about, and indeed for a few of them read directly, such studies before. They draw the conclusion people are irrational with respect to the time value of money, and sometimes they even try to show additional effects, such as the study OP refers to. They have an extremely serious flaw, and e...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sun Nov 23, 2014 7:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Want to Save Money: Be grateful
Replies: 11
Views: 2817

Re: Vanguard offers login security code

Did somebody find out what happens if your phone number changes? How do you change it so you can log onto your account? Therein lies the rub, and a reason one might consider not requiring the code when using a known-to-Vanguard computer. Either way, Vanguard has to have a procedure to use things on...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat Nov 22, 2014 1:44 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard offers login security code
Replies: 70
Views: 6047

Re: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?

PJW, the part that I didn't follow was where you said that computers enabled fewer people to make more mistakes. Why not more people, instead of fewer? I understand. Please allow me to explain. A long time ago, if the entire population of the globe, organized for the purpose and working efficiently...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?
Replies: 64
Views: 5155

Re: How to find Second Lowest Cost Silver Plan for your area

... That's where the zip code comes in. Zip code indicates your area. I beg your pardon? healthcare.gov is relevant for some states, but not for others. Your instructions said to go there. OP didn't indicate h/er/is domicile. The second-cheapest silver plan for 2014 is unlikely to be listed on the ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 21, 2014 11:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to find Second Lowest Cost Silver Plan for your area
Replies: 9
Views: 885

Re: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?

... The parameter values I used were intended to be reasonable forward looking estimates over the next 30 years for US stocks and the US investment grade bond universe. ... Computers have enabled fewer people to make more mistakes in less time than has ever before been the case in human history. PJ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 21, 2014 11:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?
Replies: 64
Views: 5155

Re: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?

... The parameter values I used were intended to be reasonable forward looking estimates over the next 30 years for US stocks and the US investment grade bond universe. ... Computers have enabled fewer people to make more mistakes in less time than has ever before been the case in human history. PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 21, 2014 10:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will stocks beat bonds over next 30 years?
Replies: 64
Views: 5155

Re: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?

... Supposing that an investor did believe a major crash was coming within the next 2 years, what would be the proper course of action for him? ... Get out now ! Now, now, now , now, now! But only if said hypothetical investor was sufficiently confident in his belief. Otherwise, he should make sure...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 21, 2014 9:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would be the investing strategy for a coming crash?
Replies: 81
Views: 6544

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

larryswedroe wrote:Sorry PJW
... Sorry but nothing more I can add.
Larry

Fair enough. For the record, I never claimed it doesn't exist. You claimed it does.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 21, 2014 7:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 112
Views: 7740

Re: How to find Second Lowest Cost Silver Plan for your area

To find the second lowest cost silver plan: ... 1) go to healthcare.gov . ... 5) Enter your expected household income for 2015 and click "CONTINUE" ... You have now found the second lowest cost SILVER Plan for your area. I am glad to help, but could you really not figure this out yourself...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 21, 2014 7:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to find Second Lowest Cost Silver Plan for your area
Replies: 9
Views: 885

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

PJW here's the link http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2524547 AS to your other comments, I have confidence to invest because there is well documented in peer reviewed academic journals support for the premiums and that the evidence as I said is persistent and pervasive. And I know ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 21, 2014 7:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 112
Views: 7740

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Here's an interesting quote re the null hypothesis “Standard predictive regressions fail to reject the hypothesis that the party of the U.S. President, the weather in Manhattan, global warming, El Ni˜no, sunspots, or the conjunctions of the planets, are significantly related to anomaly performance....
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 21, 2014 7:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 112
Views: 7740

Re: How to find Second Lowest Cost Silver Plan for your area

It probably would have been easier to find out prior to 15 November. ... My current strategy is to just Rothify enough so that I hit the MAGI I told the Marketplace I would make for 2014. That should be safe? Maybe? I guess this isn't the time to try and maximize tax credits, although it is tempting...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to find Second Lowest Cost Silver Plan for your area
Replies: 9
Views: 885

Re: Updated opinions about Ally Bank?

They've repaid all the TARP money and Treasury was due to make a profit on its remaining shares. Earlier this year the CEO of Ally Financial said he expected Treasury to exit its position before the end of 2014. I don't know whether it's been accomplished yet. I use them, but have no argument with a...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 21, 2014 5:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Updated opinions about Ally Bank?
Replies: 67
Views: 8171

Re: Vanguard offers login security code

Enrolled. Thanks for telling us it's become available.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 21, 2014 5:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard offers login security code
Replies: 70
Views: 6047

Re: SEPP for early retiree

wshang wrote:...
While I was able to google 72t.net, I was not able to link to it nor bring it up on my browser.
...

They don't like being linked from elsewhere. If you simply type:

72t.net

into the address bar of your browser it should work.

PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 21, 2014 3:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SEPP for early retiree
Replies: 6
Views: 1024

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

... Phineas ... Second, you used the term higher RISK ADJUSTED returns. ... Thanks for the response, Larry. I used the term because, if return is simply higher because the risk is higher, then I can use less costly means to increase risk if I choose. ... Third, as to undermine the idea: I would say...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 21, 2014 2:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 112
Views: 7740

Re: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean pro

Hi Larry, Hoping I can turn down the heat a bit, and turn up the light, and also trying to comply with LadyGeek's thoroughly appropriate request, can you tell us individual investors, not necessarily we so much as me , who are skeptical of the factor approach (as upthread you admonished Victoria F. ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Thu Nov 20, 2014 8:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why finance research is often wrong - the jelly bean problem
Replies: 112
Views: 7740

Re: Fidelity 2-Factor authentication fail...

I may be wrong but a phone call is very safe in my opinion. All phone calls are recorded and logged. phone numbers can not be spoofed and the police can trace a phone number back to a home address. So a hacker will not call fidelity because the phone call will be traced back to the hacker's home ad...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 14, 2014 9:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fidelity 2-Factor authentication fail...
Replies: 13
Views: 1113

Re: Fidelity 2-Factor authentication fail...

... If you're a Russian hacker, how many fake American voices can you mimic, and how soon would Fidelity catch on? Once you break into the account, what exactly can you do to steal money? Fidelity probably looks at its internal data on security breaches and knows that this is rare. Although I agree...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 14, 2014 8:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fidelity 2-Factor authentication fail...
Replies: 13
Views: 1113

Re: Fidelity 2-Factor authentication fail...

Not too good, but if I may say so, not too surprising, either. There's always a tradeoff between security and convenience. Many service providers compromise the first to facilitate the second. Thanks for the report. For the record, I have the Schwab VPN token, and their instructions say that if the ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 14, 2014 6:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fidelity 2-Factor authentication fail...
Replies: 13
Views: 1113

Re: Vanguard ETF vs. Mutual Fund when expenses equal

indexfundfan wrote:...
Other than that, in the regular case where you sell whole shares of ETFs, you can use the entire value to purchase Vanguard mutual funds on the same trading day.

Wonderful! Thanks for the additional information.
PJW
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 14, 2014 4:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard ETF vs. Mutual Fund when expenses equal
Replies: 27
Views: 1774

Re: Vanguard ETF vs. Mutual Fund when expenses equal

If you have the "upgraded" VBS account, you don't need to wait for the 3-day settlement to move from Vanguard ETF to Vanguard mutual fund, Even better, but can you clarify whether that's because of staying within Vanguard, or because the upgraded account includes margin? Ordinarily, in a ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 14, 2014 3:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard ETF vs. Mutual Fund when expenses equal
Replies: 27
Views: 1774

Re: Vanguard ETF vs. Mutual Fund when expenses equal

If you are unsure, remember you can always convert from the index fund to the ETF (when an ETF exists for that fund), but not the other way around. Very true, and if I may embellish, that's especially important in a taxable account, because the conversion from mutual fund shares to the ETF is a non...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 14, 2014 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard ETF vs. Mutual Fund when expenses equal
Replies: 27
Views: 1774

Re: letting profits run or sell...

... It is helpful to me. Thank you Mr. Whoopee. Happy to have been of service. OP: I would put a stop order in right below the price per share now , so if they go down any - you sell, if they continue to gain - you hold and let them keep growing for many years (as Toons says). Put the order in NTC ...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 14, 2014 3:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: letting profits run or sell...
Replies: 34
Views: 2627

Re: iBonds at zero % fixed

Ah! myRA . Phase out is a distinct possibility, especially the I Bonds. Better make this year count. :D Thanks for getting the thread locked. Now we'll never find out what Mel thinks. PJW What? Wasn't that the gist of his article? The topic you brought up is off-topic, per Alex. I predict a locking...
by Phineas J. Whoopee
Fri Nov 14, 2014 2:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iBonds at zero % fixed
Replies: 84
Views: 8984
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