Search found 4262 matches

by Noobvestor
Mon Aug 31, 2015 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds vs cd's
Replies: 11
Views: 1360

Re: I Bonds vs cd's

I prefer I Bonds to CDs at equivalent/similar rates because (1) I don't have to read the fine print about when I can cash them in, (2) they are tax-deferred for up to 30 years, so I can keep holding them without taking new actions (simplicity + flexibility).
by Noobvestor
Sun Aug 30, 2015 1:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Money for Taxes
Replies: 20
Views: 1153

Re: Investing Money for Taxes

Being a risqué kind of guy, I put it entirely into shorts.

Generally buy them at Old Navy.
by Noobvestor
Sat Aug 29, 2015 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8048

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

rca1824, slice-and-dicers (factor-based investors) claim that a portfolio of poorly correlated risky assets will experience risk reduction due to the low correlation, and thus a better risk-adjusted reward. If you look at the actual data and the actual claims numerically... as you've been doing whe...
by Noobvestor
Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?
Replies: 90
Views: 8048

Re: Why no diversification benefit for international in this week's crash?

rca1824, slice-and-dicers (factor-based investors) claim that a portfolio of poorly correlated risky assets will experience risk reduction due to the low correlation, and thus a better risk-adjusted reward. If you look at the actual data and the actual claims numerically... as you've been doing whe...
by Noobvestor
Mon Aug 17, 2015 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does Bogle disparage ETFs in his book?
Replies: 35
Views: 2639

Re: Why does Bogle disparage ETFs in his book?

The short answer: yes, his advice is a bit dated, plus it assumes people won't use ETFs like index funds - if you *do* use them passively like you would index funds, you'll be fine. Also, he says: "...the returns earned by ETF investors come nowhere near the returns earned by the funds themselv...
by Noobvestor
Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash in the house
Replies: 80
Views: 6608

Re: Cash in the house

It's all relative. If $1,000 is your life's savings, I wouldn't keep it at home. If it's 0.1% of your net worth, why not? Worst case: it gets stolen, and your net worth drops less that day than it would in a typical down day on the stock market.
by Noobvestor
Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's a Bug Out Bag and who uses them?
Replies: 67
Views: 7768

Re: What's a Bug Out Bag and who uses them?

The idea behind a BOB is that if something goes awry where you are you don't have to pack a bag to get a move on - you can just grab this prepacked bag and rush out the door. By virtue of its size (something you can carry easily) it won't address long-duration situations. Some people (like: preppers...
by Noobvestor
Wed Aug 05, 2015 11:25 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Bringing back the poll
Replies: 12
Views: 981

Re: Bringing back the poll

+1

I know they aren't scientific or representative, but polls are still useful for getting answers to certain kinds of questions or at least seeing a distribution or range of responses. Also: I miss polls :/
by Noobvestor
Mon Jul 27, 2015 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you look down on a co-worker for driving a beater?
Replies: 196
Views: 13782

Re: Would you look down on a co-worker for driving a beater?

I drive a reasonably old and well-used car that is beat up, has some issues, including cosmetic ones both inside and out. My SO recently found a copy of the Millionaire Next Door for free in the book exchange area in our condo building and grabbed it for me, which then landed in the car. My brother,...
by Noobvestor
Mon Jul 27, 2015 1:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Job Opportunity
Replies: 4
Views: 891

Re: New Job Opportunity

I don't feel like we have enough information here - or maybe I don't understand what you're asking. Seems like we'd need to know roughly what the income portion would be to help you evaluate.
by Noobvestor
Mon Jul 27, 2015 1:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Protection against stock correctiom
Replies: 25
Views: 2596

Re: Protection against stock correctiom

No stocks are really safe in a correction. EDV - Vanguard Extended-Duration Treasuries. Market zigs, it zags. No guarantees, though.
by Noobvestor
Sun Jul 26, 2015 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vanguard Account Hacked
Replies: 22
Views: 2863

Re: Vanguard Account Hacked

I read your post, then reread it, and can't quite figure out what is going on. What do you mean by 'hacked'? Did someone guess your password or find it somehow, or actually use an exploit of some kind to access it? How did you determine or confirm the hack? Was there any attempt to move your funds o...
by Noobvestor
Sat Jul 25, 2015 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: going to cash
Replies: 40
Views: 6763

Re: going to cash

whats the easiest way of going go to cash within Vanguard's line of products? I am satisfied with my profit for the last year and I want to sit on cash for now. Thanks Compounding gains are one of the biggest benefits of long-term investing. If you sit out each time you are satisfied with your rece...
by Noobvestor
Sat Jul 25, 2015 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11920

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

Whenever I think of medical professionals (particularly: surgeons, who could suffer some injury that takes them out of the game) I always am amazed at the risk they take (particularly: debt and time spent in school) but it's for a potentially very high reward, which is ultimately an individual choic...
by Noobvestor
Sat Jul 25, 2015 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11920

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

It's a matter of starting points followed by subjective decisions. The various things you listed range from mildly to moderately active for the most part, but are generally more passive than anything. I could go through your list but I don't think it would add much to the above sentence. A good basi...
by Noobvestor
Sat Jul 25, 2015 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $100,000 to invest for two years
Replies: 13
Views: 1499

Re: $100,000 to invest for two years

Run monte-carlo simulations for two-year historical periods in the stock market, see the dispersion of possible outcomes, and decide whether and/or how much you want to gamble on the variety of possibilities. Or ... stick it in a CD.
by Noobvestor
Fri Jul 24, 2015 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where do you keep/park your emergency fund?
Replies: 54
Views: 6486

Re: Where do you keep/park your emergency fund?

Currently I have it sitting in a TD bank checking account. I like it because I can deposit checks at a TD branch that I am unable to scan to USaA deposit at home bc of limit. It is also convenient as I can just head over to the local branch if I need a large withdrawal. Negatives are the minimal to...
by Noobvestor
Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11920

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

Thanks @Maynard - you did what I should have done and ran it through a backtest, and I'm pleased to see the results! If you still have the page up, maybe you could try a portfolio of 30% US stock, 30% International, 20% Treasuries (or Total Bond), and 20% TIPS as well. For the global comparison, I t...
by Noobvestor
Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 11920

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

So does your asset allocation match the global market's, or are you basing your decisions on some expectations of risk and returns? What data can you use to help you improve your estimates? If you're asking me, I am at 50/50, having won the game and retired. I spent most of my accumulating phase at...
by Noobvestor
Tue Jul 21, 2015 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Monte Carlo simulation for index funds owned
Replies: 5
Views: 592

Re: Monte Carlo simulation for index funds owned

Thank you for the reply. No, no trouble. I just wanted to get as close a projection as I could. In that case, if you're using standard index funds, I'd suggest just using the generic indexes. The data might be slightly different but it will cover much longer periods, and the more periods you have t...
by Noobvestor
Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fundamental Indexing in Emerging Markets
Replies: 1
Views: 563

Re: Fundamental Indexing in Emerging Markets

It's a bit dated now, but Bill Bernstein ran some simulations and came to some conclusions about equal-weighting (manually rebalancing) in EM: http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/400/rebal400.htm
by Noobvestor
Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging / Frontier Markets: Allocation & ETF Recomendations
Replies: 6
Views: 727

Re: Emerging / Frontier Markets: Allocation & ETF Recomendations

Last time I did research on FM I concluded that it wasn't worth the fees/trouble of trying to hold any. I do tilt emerging, using Vanguard Emerging Markets Index, which is low-cost but, yes, is naturally tilted toward the BRICs. That said, the BRICs are likely to be most of the market a few decades ...
by Noobvestor
Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reallocation advice - Australian investor
Replies: 3
Views: 302

Re: Reallocation advice - Australian investor

Age in bonds is a typical starting point, though a lot of people skew more aggressive (e.g. age minus ten in bonds). Looks like you've got a good range of options at Vanguard AU (https://www.vanguardinvestments.com.au/retail/ret/investments/etfs.jsp#etfstab). How much you want to tilt toward your ho...
by Noobvestor
Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Monte Carlo simulation for index funds owned
Replies: 5
Views: 592

Re: Monte Carlo simulation for index funds owned

No, and honestly I'm not sure it would be that useful if they did - a lot of Vanguard funds only go back so far, so using proxies/indexes instead is ultimately more productive. Are there funds you're having trouble finding equivalents for, or breaking down into components?
by Noobvestor
Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chart: The World's Stock Markets in the Year 2050
Replies: 32
Views: 5679

Re: Chart: The World's Stock Markets in the Year 2050

So you're saying instead of holding Total World, own 20 countries with 5% in each (or something) and rebalance. That sounds pretty complicated (what would you even purchase) and fairly tilted. That's also a fairly advanced idea for a lot of people here people who don't even own cap weight, let alon...
by Noobvestor
Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's better: Lower Fees or Higher Potential Growth?
Replies: 20
Views: 1697

Re: What's better: Lower Fees or Higher Potential Growth?

Trading developed/emerging international stocks for domestic large-caps is a much bigger decision than a small difference in expense ratios. You're not just trading similar things around, you're cutting out a lot of diversification (assuming you already hold US stocks in another fund). Maybe you cou...
by Noobvestor
Fri Jul 17, 2015 3:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chart: The World's Stock Markets in the Year 2050
Replies: 32
Views: 5679

Re: Chart: The World's Stock Markets in the Year 2050

Tilting leads to concentration risk, for on average no additional reward. Diversification provides the free lunch of more ensuring average rewards, and broadly 'average' rewards are good. With concentration there's the risk that you'll look at a historic right tailer such as the US and seeing that ...
by Noobvestor
Fri Jul 10, 2015 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 419
Views: 80165

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I wrote several times in the conversation that I'm making this move whether there's a correction in international stocks or not. It doesn't matter. Vanguard's change in international index selection plus taxes considerations in client accounts does have bearing on the timing of this shift. That bei...
by Noobvestor
Fri Jul 10, 2015 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting - Textbook
Replies: 6
Views: 578

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting - Textbook

I sold a mobile app company in 2012 and my portfolio changed from absolutely no taxable accounts to about 70% taxable accounts of my total portfolio. So I don't have much experience with TLH. Ahah, I'm in basically the same boat! Mid-30s, sold a smallish technology company in 2011, went from all ta...
by Noobvestor
Fri Jul 10, 2015 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard v.s. Betterment
Replies: 45
Views: 5168

Re: Vanguard v.s. Betterment

I'm still hung up on cost basis issues. If they sell/buy lots, and add complexity over time, if you ever want to unravel yourself from their system it could mean a mountain of paperwork for you - and not just once, I'm talking about keeping track going forward. That's the reason I wouldn't use them...
by Noobvestor
Fri Jul 10, 2015 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we care about price movements? Aren't earnings all that matter?
Replies: 44
Views: 3565

Re: Why do we care about price movements? Aren't earnings all that matter?

Maybe I fall into this category which is why I thought up this strategy. I plan on saving up 40-100x my annual spending. Unless you're foreseeing incredible advancements in longevity, the normal strategy if you have saved 100x annual spending would be to simply put most or all of your money in ultr...
by Noobvestor
Tue Jul 07, 2015 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First Time Posting
Replies: 6
Views: 660

Re: First Time Posting

Thank you for your reply. To clarify the Section labled Mutual Funds open ended are not part of my IRA and they are Taxable Mutual funds through Wells Fargo. My IRA is through Wells Fargo as well. Does that make a diference? I am not sure what the expense ratio stands for, is that what the fund is ...
by Noobvestor
Tue Jul 07, 2015 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why US market is falling due to Greece crisis?
Replies: 14
Views: 1431

Re: Why US market is falling due to Greece crisis?

Global markets tend to be much more correlated than not. You can see this in any of the last few major crises, regardless of their points of origin. Global diversification is helpful for long-term investing (i.e. dispersion of returns, hedging against long-term, single-market stagnation, currency di...
by Noobvestor
Tue Jul 07, 2015 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First Time Posting
Replies: 6
Views: 660

Re: First Time Posting

I can't tell if that center section of open-ended mutual funds is in the IRA or not. Assuming it is, my god, some advisor really led you astray and made your portfolio far too complicated, but since there are no tax implications I would sell and simplify as soon as possible. At Vanguard or Fidelity ...
by Noobvestor
Tue Jul 07, 2015 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paycut To Go Elsewhere (Same Field) For Better Promotion Potential?
Replies: 8
Views: 901

Re: Paycut To Go Elsewhere (Same Field) For Better Promotion Potential?

What percent of your income is the pay cut? If it's less than 10%, I would probably not let that be a deciding factor - instead think about where you'll be happier, and (as you pointed out) where you have more upward potential, and perhaps whether the experience will look better on a resume (and per...
by Noobvestor
Tue Jul 07, 2015 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Help for a Stagnated Portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 774

Re: Investment Help for a Stagnated Portfolio

That's a lot in savings. Maybe you should treat it as a bond/cash part of your portfolio? You could also start migrating some of that stash to Series I and Series EE US savings bonds (10K/year per type limit, but great way to tax-defer more bond/cash allocation). It's hard to say much about your 401...
by Noobvestor
Tue Jul 07, 2015 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Weatherproofing Portfolio
Replies: 3
Views: 618

Re: Weatherproofing Portfolio

1. How can I reduce risk whist keeping a 3% withdrawal rate? Do I have to take as much risk as I am taking right now? 2. As I will only need 1.5-2% of portfolio value to live on for the next 2 years, my idea is to to weatherproof the portfolio by investing all the surplus into bonds. This means aft...
by Noobvestor
Thu Jul 02, 2015 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What happens when Admiral Shares drop below $50K?
Replies: 22
Views: 3755

Re: What happens when Admiral Shares drop below $50K?

Not to hijack, but has anyone had trouble with their money market going below the 3K minimum? I keep 3K in there at all times and use it to collect dividends for later reinvestment (taxable account, so I can rebalance with those dividends too) but wonder if I could just keep it close to zero instea...
by Noobvestor
Thu Jul 02, 2015 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What happens when Admiral Shares drop below $50K?
Replies: 22
Views: 3755

Re: What happens when Admiral Shares drop below $50K?

Not to hijack, but has anyone had trouble with their money market going below the 3K minimum? I keep 3K in there at all times and use it to collect dividends for later reinvestment (taxable account, so I can rebalance with those dividends too) but wonder if I could just keep it close to zero instea...
by Noobvestor
Thu Jul 02, 2015 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard v.s. Betterment
Replies: 45
Views: 5168

Re: Vanguard v.s. Betterment

I'm still hung up on cost basis issues. If they sell/buy lots, and add complexity over time, if you ever want to unravel yourself from their system it could mean a mountain of paperwork for you - and not just once, I'm talking about keeping track going forward. That's the reason I wouldn't use them.
by Noobvestor
Thu Jul 02, 2015 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?
Replies: 61
Views: 5859

Re: What is the Duration of Your Bond Portfolio? And Why?

It's been a while since I reviewed my actual duration, which shifts a bit as I add I/EE bonds each year (and depends on how you count those). The *funds* I use for the rest of my bonds are intermediate-term municipal and intermediate TIPS, both at Vanguard, putting me at around 6 years or so in term...
by Noobvestor
Thu Jul 02, 2015 2:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: excellent summary of the Greek crisis by U of Chicago Professor
Replies: 45
Views: 8656

Re: excellent summary of the Greek crisis by U of Chicago Professor

Over 1 million Euros raised so far for the Greek bailout on a crowdfunding site :D

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... ros-people

If every European just chipped in a latte we'd have this done in no time.
by Noobvestor
Thu Jul 02, 2015 2:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard v.s. Betterment
Replies: 45
Views: 5168

Re: Vanguard v.s. Betterment

Here's what I'm picturing: you use them for a while, they TLH for you, and save you some money, but then you stop using them for whatever reason, and suddenly you have to figure out all the complex lots and whatnot left behind, creating a paperwork problem going forward.
by Noobvestor
Thu Jul 02, 2015 2:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 113
Views: 12285

Re: Did you used to invest in TIPS?

I stopped buying TIPS for a period when I Bonds were a better deal, which from memory I think was around 2011 to 2013 or so, and bought I Bonds instead. Didn't sell existing TIPS though. TIPS are a better deal than I Bonds again, and I'm occasionally buying TIPS again. On what planet are TIPS a bet...
by Noobvestor
Mon Jun 29, 2015 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What happens when Admiral Shares drop below $50K?
Replies: 22
Views: 3755

Re: What happens when Admiral Shares drop below $50K?

Not to hijack, but has anyone had trouble with their money market going below the 3K minimum? I keep 3K in there at all times and use it to collect dividends for later reinvestment (taxable account, so I can rebalance with those dividends too) but wonder if I could just keep it close to zero instead.
by Noobvestor
Sat Jun 27, 2015 12:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did 2008 change your investing strategy?
Replies: 58
Views: 5541

Re: Did 2008 change your investing strategy?

I liquidated my individual and active funds in favor of a passive portfolio. Good times!
by Noobvestor
Sat Jun 27, 2015 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you could invest directly in the HML "factor?"
Replies: 18
Views: 3046

Re: What if you could invest directly in the HML "factor?"

Beta is the ice cream, HML is the chocolate sauce and SMB is the cherry. For not much extra money you can add the chocolate and cherry. It doesn't matter that the chocolate and cherry on their own aren't giving you the core flavor, since they are indeed add-ons to the ice cream.
by Noobvestor
Wed Jun 24, 2015 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Bogleheads/BiggerPocketers think there is only one way?
Replies: 123
Views: 14695

Re: Why do Bogleheads/BiggerPocketers think there is only one way?

One of the things I like best about rental properties is exactly what a stock/bond portfolio is worst at, throwing off a steady stream of cash flows. A portfolio is a magnificent vehicle for accumulation, but drawdown is fraught with all kinds of problems. Adding rental properties to your retiremen...
by Noobvestor
Mon Jun 22, 2015 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Bogleheads/BiggerPocketers think there is only one way?
Replies: 123
Views: 14695

Re: Why do Bogleheads/BiggerPocketers think there is only one way?

There do tend to be different personality types pursuing these different kinds of endeavors, but I don't see a necessary disconnect - I made my money taking small business risks, then turned around and put it into indexed mutual funds. The real estate folks I know, though, do tend to be of a differe...
by Noobvestor
Sun Jun 21, 2015 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Relationship Between TIPS, Treasuries, and Inflation
Replies: 5
Views: 1044

Re: The Relationship Between TIPS, Treasuries, and Inflation

I do like the versatility of TIPS in theory, though as we know from the last crash in practice they did 'alright' not 'great' like Treasuries in a big equity downturn (lots of reasons, some of which may not repeat). The best deflation protection is probably still something like EDV (extended-duratio...

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