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Re: Kindle - Which one to buy?

I prefer my Nook :)
by Noobvestor
Sun Jun 29, 2014 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kindle - Which one to buy?
Replies: 36
Views: 2137

Re: Advice for portfolio heavy on bonds, light on tax-def sp

I'm in a pretty similar situation - light on tax-deferred space, plus a little heavier on bonds than most people my age. I recommend some/all of the following: 1) Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax Exempt - decent after-tax yields 2) I Bonds and maybe EE Bonds (the latter if held for 20 years to double)...
by Noobvestor
Sun Jun 29, 2014 3:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for portfolio heavy on bonds, light on tax-def space
Replies: 9
Views: 511

Re: what's the % of world's investable assets in fixed incom

http://im.mstar.com/im/newhomepage/ibbotson111810.png via http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=63306 Honestly, if it were efficient (cost, tax, etc...) and easy (one fund, etc...) I would be happy to invest in an 'all world everything fund' ;) One thing I think is worth noting for stock-...
by Noobvestor
Thu Apr 17, 2014 11:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what's the % of world's investable assets in fixed income?
Replies: 5
Views: 806

Re: Domestic vs. International Stock Allocation

I don't get the currency risk argument ... still. Aside from the fact that it's a wash over time, and that older investors closer to spending their invested funds have more bond exposure, how do you folks decide how much 'currency risk' a, say, 70/30 portfolio gives you? How do you not find that arb...
by Noobvestor
Tue Mar 25, 2014 11:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Domestic vs. International Stock Allocation
Replies: 37
Views: 5091

Re: FutureAdvisor reducing exposure to US equities

So now that they are going AUM-style (.5% instead of a flat fee) I guess they feel the need to make it look like they are doing something ... too bad, really, I had high hopes for FutureAdvisor when I first saw them come out. This part cracks me up: Second, this manages risk in your portfolio, by in...
by Noobvestor
Tue Mar 25, 2014 11:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FutureAdvisor reducing exposure to US equities
Replies: 10
Views: 1355

Re: Poll: Which of these abbreviations do you understand?

I assumed idsfa was an experimental question to see if people would say 'yes' for one that didn't exist, which seems confirmed by its current count of zero?
by Noobvestor
Sat Feb 22, 2014 3:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Which of these abbreviations do you understand?
Replies: 66
Views: 2236

Re: Emerging Markets

Speaking of early 1900s/late 1800s GDP (and The Economist), this reminds me of a fact from the in-depth article in the Economist recently on Argentina: In the 43 years leading up to 1914, GDP [of Argentina] had grown at an annual rate of 6%, the fastest recorded in the world. From Wikipedia: Between...
by Noobvestor
Sat Feb 22, 2014 2:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets
Replies: 15
Views: 2126

Re: TIAA Traditional vs. Bonds - What would you choose?

Well, I'm glad I asked you folks ... I'm going to advise them to leave all the TIAA in place and count is at the FI allocation until/unless something changes with rates down the line, and even then suggest they explore the annuitization options before making changes. I *was* thinking of suggesting t...
by Noobvestor
Sun Jan 19, 2014 10:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Traditional vs. Bonds - What would you choose?
Replies: 43
Views: 1975

Re: TIAA Traditional vs. Bonds - What would you choose?

I confess I am a bit surprised that the consensus opinion seems to be 'stay in TIAA' despite it being such a large chunk of the portfolio in this case, but I can see the argument: (1) despite having a single point of failure, the odds of failure are extremely low, and (2) you really can't beat the r...
by Noobvestor
Sun Jan 19, 2014 8:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Traditional vs. Bonds - What would you choose?
Replies: 43
Views: 1975

Re: TIAA Traditional vs. Bonds - What would you choose?

First, thanks for the really helpful responses so far - from opinions as well as additional facts I'm starting to get a better picture of things (and really appreciate the various views). Regarding the SRA/TPA distinction, I went ahead and found out more: All guarantee 3% minimum. A and B are from o...
by Noobvestor
Fri Jan 17, 2014 3:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Traditional vs. Bonds - What would you choose?
Replies: 43
Views: 1975

TIAA Traditional vs. Bonds - What would you choose?

Someone I'm helping sort out their investments has a lot of money in TIAA traditional - about half of their retirement portfolio (and they are nearing retirement). On the one hand, it seems to be pretty safe and solid and higher-yielding than safe bond funds ... but, on the other hand, as someone wh...
by Noobvestor
Thu Jan 16, 2014 7:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Traditional vs. Bonds - What would you choose?
Replies: 43
Views: 1975

Re: High Earners - What's Your Profession?

Small business owner.
by Noobvestor
Sun Jan 12, 2014 9:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High Earners - What's Your Profession?
Replies: 357
Views: 28763

Re: CAPE 26.4 - Would Ben Graham model be at 25/75 : Stock/B

International looks more attractive than US, and emerging more than developed. Given the easy, low-cost access to ex-US I suspect Ben Graham would make sure he was globally diversified. /2 cents

Happy New Year, folks!
by Noobvestor
Tue Dec 31, 2013 8:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE 26.4 - Would Ben Graham model be at 25/75 : Stock/Bond?
Replies: 15
Views: 1195

Re: Questioning role of Emerging Markets

...If they think there is no expected return for those kinds of risks, then I question why you think the market is ignorant of them and/or doesn't price them in. It doesn't matter if they're priced in or not, there are risks (and maybe returns and diversification benefits) that I just don't want a ...
by Noobvestor
Wed Nov 20, 2013 5:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questioning role of Emerging Markets
Replies: 58
Views: 5793

Re: How Much Cash Should Your Portfolio Have?

I agree that cash is useful for emotional reasons but not for mathematical ones. It may help you sleep better but it will compromise your returns over the long haul. My advice: if you want some cash so you can bottom feed after a correction, buy BRK instead. They're currently holding about $40B (ab...
by Noobvestor
Sat Nov 16, 2013 11:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much Cash Should Your Portfolio Have?
Replies: 44
Views: 6509

Re: Questioning role of Emerging Markets

I own the S&P500 and the profits of those companies, and I'm in a well established market with certain rules of law and protections afforded to me with ownership. Even if I as an average share holder can't force the sell and distributions of the company assets and earnings, there is a well esta...
by Noobvestor
Sat Nov 16, 2013 11:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questioning role of Emerging Markets
Replies: 58
Views: 5793

Re: Index Funds of Startups?

That is hilarious Nis - great find. It really does say something if those are what they view as risk-free ... I do think there is some relative sense in which a lot of entrepreneurs think that way - compared to a fly-or-die startup the stock market looks positively tame :) I've talked at tech/startu...
by Noobvestor
Tue Nov 12, 2013 2:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Index Funds of Startups?
Replies: 3
Views: 684

Re: Do you have a warchest for a correction?

I suppose I could sell my kidney on the black market if the stock market drops 90% ...
by Noobvestor
Tue Nov 12, 2013 1:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you have a warchest for a correction?
Replies: 30
Views: 2875

Re: Questioning role of Emerging Markets

. Do I want to have a significant portion of my equity exposure in a country that is at least nominally Communist? Communist countries do not have a tradition of respecting property rights and the rule of law. Nominally communist? Explain? Meanwhile, China is only 21% of Vanguard EM index. Brazil, ...
by Noobvestor
Tue Nov 12, 2013 1:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questioning role of Emerging Markets
Replies: 58
Views: 5793

Index Funds of Startups?

I find this fascinating ... not recommending anyone do it, but it's kind of like a miniature index fund approach to startup investing: WeFunder's 'staff picks': https://wefunder.com/staffpickfund Angel.co groupings around startup school graduation classes, etc...: https://angel.co/techstars-seattle-...
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 11, 2013 2:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Index Funds of Startups?
Replies: 3
Views: 684

Re: How Much Cash Should Your Portfolio Have?

If you treat cash as a zero-duration bond it's a non-issue - you simply hold as much as you want/need to bring down your target duration. If you consider cash an asset class, then I don't know ... I'd say no more than 25% of a portfolio (pulling that out of thin air! Whee!).
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 11, 2013 1:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much Cash Should Your Portfolio Have?
Replies: 44
Views: 6509

Re: Do Bogleheads have a number?

I have a target number for a preferred lifestyle and baseline number for what I assume I could live on frugally if absolutely necessary. Both are functions of a standard/conservative multiplier (30x spending).
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 11, 2013 1:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do Bogleheads have a number?
Replies: 118
Views: 11514

Re: If you started at the beginning...

rob wrote:Spend $$ on experiences not things :D


This gets said a lot and yet not nearly enough. I'm not that much older and already I look back and never regret spending money on an experience (or money I have saved, so far anyway), but do question a few things I bought along the way :oops:
by Noobvestor
Wed Nov 06, 2013 12:17 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you started at the beginning... [advice for new investor]
Replies: 30
Views: 1940

Re: Halloween Effect in Equities: More 'Trick' than 'Treat'?

That's the beauty and bane of data mining - there are all kinds of amazing patterns that won't persist but look and sound really convincing to the uninitiated. My favorite is the amazing 140-year-long pattern: every President elected in a year ending in 0 died in office. 1840-1960. Of course, nobod...
by Noobvestor
Wed Nov 06, 2013 12:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Halloween Effect in Equities: More 'Trick' than 'Treat'?
Replies: 8
Views: 791

Re: A look at the record.

Bogleheads: Mr Arends wrote: "You can beat the market with smart timing." Whenever I hear about a successful (?) market-timer, I often look at their record. This is what Brent Arends recommended in 2007 : HEADLINE: TREASURIES A BAD BET NOW. Mr. Arends specifically warns against VUSTX (Van...
by Noobvestor
Tue Nov 05, 2013 3:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brent Arends: you can beat the market with smart timing
Replies: 89
Views: 5679

Re: LT Bonds for 29 year old?

Sure an equities crash will hurt in the short term, but if you have the discipline to weather a 30-40% drop and the time horizon to capture the rebound I don't see a need for a larger bond exposure "right now." My advice, take a good risk questionnaire and see what it spits out. Based on ...
by Noobvestor
Tue Nov 05, 2013 12:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: LT Bonds for 29 year old?
Replies: 20
Views: 1894

Re: 28 yr old with $200k cash to invest... Advise?

I'm no expert in this, but have you considered your options for self employed people getting a 401(k) or IRA? Something like a Solo-401(k)/IRA etc... That could give you more tax advantaged space to fill before resorting to your taxable account. I'm sure there are people much more knowledgable than...
by Noobvestor
Tue Nov 05, 2013 12:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 28 yr old with $200k cash to invest... Advise?
Replies: 9
Views: 1808

Re: Halloween Effect in Equities: More 'Trick' than 'Treat'?

Even if historical returns are completely random, it is statistically certain that for any 6-month period, the opposite 6-month period will either outperform or underperform the it, even over extraordinarily large samples. Furthermore, it is also certain that when looking at the 12 ways to divide t...
by Noobvestor
Tue Nov 05, 2013 12:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Halloween Effect in Equities: More 'Trick' than 'Treat'?
Replies: 8
Views: 791

Re: Halloween Effect in Equities: More 'Trick' than 'Treat'?

Random Musings wrote:Probabilities work until they don't.

RM


Yup ... patterns have a nasty habit of disappearing after discovery, or never having really existed in the first place (i.e. data mining).
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 04, 2013 6:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Halloween Effect in Equities: More 'Trick' than 'Treat'?
Replies: 8
Views: 791

Re: LT Bonds for 29 year old?

For perspective, the vanguard target date 2045, 2050, and 2055 funds are all 10% bonds/90% stock. I think you are right where you need to be given your age and risk tolerance. Agree with this. Bonds seem to me like a lousy investment these days: lots of potential downside, and limited upside. Espec...
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 04, 2013 5:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: LT Bonds for 29 year old?
Replies: 20
Views: 1894

Halloween Effect in Equities: More 'Trick' than 'Treat'?

The Halloween effect just might be more of a trick than a treat – think less chocolate and more witch’s brew. The end of October and beginning of November mark the start of the six-month period of November-April during which, historical evidence shows, stocks have outperformed when compared with th...
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 04, 2013 5:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Halloween Effect in Equities: More 'Trick' than 'Treat'?
Replies: 8
Views: 791

Re: Moving all of your funds out of Vanguard

greg24 wrote:Don't cut off your nose to spite your face.


It's 'bite', but other than that, I literally came here to post that phrase. I can't imagine going to a higher-fee alternative (or one where the lower fees may not last because they are loss leaders) over a customer service issue, but *shrug*
by Noobvestor
Tue Oct 29, 2013 12:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moving all of your funds out of Vanguard
Replies: 75
Views: 7204

Re: TIPS: Short term or the other one?

I imagine if we surveyed this forum that about half the posters here hold some TIPS and half don't hold any. Of those that do, I suspect there is more holding in the longer fund than in the shorter one, but that is just a guess. I think there was a survey not too long ago on the subject of how much...
by Noobvestor
Wed Oct 23, 2013 9:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS: Short term or the other one?
Replies: 10
Views: 1064

Re: LT Bonds for 29 year old?

Hello Bogleheads, I am a long time reader. I'll get right to it: I am 29 years old, have a high risk tolerance (and investment discipline), and an investment time frame of roughly 20-30years before I plan to draw on these funds. I currently have more than enough room within my IRA to hold the bond ...
by Noobvestor
Mon Oct 21, 2013 11:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: LT Bonds for 29 year old?
Replies: 20
Views: 1894

Re: International Bonds

During the recent government shutdown I just stopped feeling safe about investing in US treasury bonds, so I sold them and divided the bond portion of our portfolio equally between Vanguard’s Total International Bond ETF (BNDX) and ProShares German Debt ETF (GGOV). (GGOV’s actual expense ratio is ....
by Noobvestor
Mon Oct 21, 2013 11:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International Bonds
Replies: 16
Views: 1393

Re: International as a percentage of your [equities]?

I've been investing in my 401K for 20 years now and I never had international and I did pretty good without it. You've left some good money on the table the last 15 calendar years (all I have now). Especially so 2002-2007 (6 years). This why we should diversify. Year VGTSX VTSMX 2012 18.14% 16.25% ...
by Noobvestor
Mon Oct 21, 2013 11:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International as a percentage of your [equities]?
Replies: 24
Views: 1828

Re: International as a percentage of your [equities]?

I've been investing in my 401K for 20 years now and I never had international and I did pretty good without it. Past performance != future returns Meanwhile, other single-country, developed-market investors of the last 100 years haven't always fared so well ... The linked Dimensional presentation p...
by Noobvestor
Sat Oct 19, 2013 5:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International as a percentage of your [equities]?
Replies: 24
Views: 1828

Re: Government Shutdown/Default [effect on investments]

I've been meaning to begin passive investing for a while, and the government shutdown intersected with my plan to put money into index trackers (about $60k). I already know what I'll be getting. My question is whether I should be putting in the money now (today or tomorrow), or wait until this blow...
by Noobvestor
Wed Oct 16, 2013 7:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Government Shutdown/Default [effect on investments]
Replies: 454
Views: 28545

Re: On my way to the Bogleheads reunion!

Are the conference locations ever enticing? The last one was in Maui, and before that Caracas ... just kidding, they're always secret, but BH11 was in a fine-but-unexciting locale ... the *event* and people though were more than exciting enough to make up for it, however ... we didn't need the dist...
by Noobvestor
Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:50 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: On my way to the Bogleheads reunion!
Replies: 29
Views: 2961

Re: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?

The idea that US-only investing gets one global exposure, and that ex-US investing is expensive and risky in a way that isn't compensated is persistent among some factions. But ... now I'll play contrarian/group thinker :) - Faith in the Small Value Tilt. As Taylor demonstrated in a post on Sunday, ...
by Noobvestor
Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Dangerous Boglehead Group-Think?
Replies: 73
Views: 4599

Re: Government Shutdown/Default [effect on investments]

The problem with cashing out for a week or two until the problem is resolved is that we don't know that everything will be resolved in that timeframe. I anticipate that the debt limit will be raised for two months or so to get us through to the new year. When all the congressmen get back from their...
by Noobvestor
Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Government Shutdown/Default [effect on investments]
Replies: 454
Views: 28545

Re: Long Term Travel

Wow, time flies ... I remember responding to this post way back when ... anyway, congrats, glad you had a good time, and it *sounds* like you learned something about yourselves as well :) That, and to pack light! ;)
by Noobvestor
Mon Oct 14, 2013 11:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long Term Travel
Replies: 61
Views: 8005

Re: On my way to the Bogleheads reunion!

I had a great time at BH11 - maybe I'll be back next year, but to all ya'll going: enjoy!
by Noobvestor
Mon Oct 14, 2013 11:32 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: On my way to the Bogleheads reunion!
Replies: 29
Views: 2961

Re: The new reality of international bonds

The diversification benefits of international bonds so far have been marginal. I own international bonds because it is yet another asset class to invest in. I use it as a currency hedge against a falling US Dollar. I have been overseas four times. I have spent money in Yen, Canadian Dollars, Pounds...
by Noobvestor
Mon Oct 14, 2013 11:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The new reality of international bonds
Replies: 5
Views: 1094

Re: Why the currency concern over too much foreign holdings?

Market neutral can be one of the most abused phrases in finance unless the context is defined and why it's beneficial in that context. If we had to strive for pure market neutrality, we would all have to hold stocks and bonds in exact proportion to their market capitalization, rather than some othe...
by Noobvestor
Sat Oct 12, 2013 6:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the currency concern over too much foreign holdings?
Replies: 71
Views: 4201

Re: Why the currency concern over too much foreign holdings?

Pop quiz: Vanguard has a hedged international bond fund, but NOT a hedged international stock fund - why? This is probably the easiest part to answer: if you're hedging bonds, you know exactly how much currency to hedge and for what duration. If you're hedging stocks, the amount of currency to hedg...
by Noobvestor
Sat Oct 12, 2013 4:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the currency concern over too much foreign holdings?
Replies: 71
Views: 4201

Re: Why the currency concern over too much foreign holdings?

Except that if everything you had were hedged to the USD, you'd be back at square one: in deep trouble if the USD loses global purchasing power - all of your eggs are in one currency basket. The USD doesn't have to go to zero for this to be an issue. I think you overestimate the impact of a decline...
by Noobvestor
Sat Oct 12, 2013 5:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the currency concern over too much foreign holdings?
Replies: 71
Views: 4201

Re: Why the currency concern over too much foreign holdings?

A U.S. investor does not get reduced portfolio volatility by holding international at market weights (e.g. the Vanguard Total World index consistently has higher volatility than Total U.S.). Unless I'm misreading it somehow, the above Figure 3 image from Vanguard shows that for 100/0, 80/20, and 60...
by Noobvestor
Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the currency concern over too much foreign holdings?
Replies: 71
Views: 4201

Re: Fair or not [Financially supporting one child over anoth

Hi, I don't know if I am in minority here but I would like to know how the parents in this forum deal with such a situation. I have a son who is good in studies and easy to get along with. The opposite is my tween daughter who is not interested in anything but the latest fashions and turned from a ...
by Noobvestor
Thu Oct 10, 2013 2:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fair or not [Financially supporting one child over another]
Replies: 57
Views: 4266
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