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Re: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk

I've read a lot of threads about rebalancing -- doesn't it always come down to whether we're in a mean reversion world or a momentum world? Do we ever know which one we're in? Do we pay Mr. Harvey to assume we're in a momentum world and act accordingly?

NightOwl
by NightOwl
Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk
Replies: 73
Views: 4545

Re: What is your opinion about "tilting?"

I have a moderate tilt to small value domestically (my Roth is 100% VG small value), and a somewhat heavier tilt to small within my international equities allocation. I consider my domestic small value tilt a form of REIT tilt as well, though I don't hold a separate REIT fund. I'm not at all evangel...
by NightOwl
Wed Dec 10, 2014 2:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your opinion about "tilting?"
Replies: 116
Views: 8311

Re: Poll: Dividend income to match annual salary?

OP, the way you are asking the question, it seems as though you think that achieving this goal would be common for members of this forum, whereas it seems to me that it would be an incredibly rare accomplishment (at least for people who got there by saving salary, not via inheritance or other major ...
by NightOwl
Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Dividend income to match annual salary?
Replies: 39
Views: 3582

Re: Where do I start?

Invest the money into a Savings Account (FDIC Insured to $500K) paying as much interest as you can find (It will be less than 1%). Then spend your leisure time reading and studying things before you invest in riskier assets. There is no Rush to do anything. It is better to not lose money now than m...
by NightOwl
Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where do I start?
Replies: 17
Views: 1870

Re: GMAT prep

Hi n00b_to_investing, I think it makes sense to prepare for an exam using materials written by the people who write that exam. I recommend going here and purchasing what the official GMAT site calls the Premium GMAT Study Collection. It is on sale for $250 (perhaps someone wants to purchase this for...
by NightOwl
Wed Dec 03, 2014 7:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: GMAT prep
Replies: 23
Views: 1562

Re: POLL: Should investors have a separate emergency fund?

Individual circumstances matter a lot here.To give just one example, I'd say that an investor whose investments are all in tax-advantaged accounts needs a separate emergency fund, while an investor with a large taxable account probably does not. I do maintain a separate emergency fund, though I've s...
by NightOwl
Tue Dec 02, 2014 4:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POLL: Should investors have a separate emergency fund?
Replies: 58
Views: 3464

Re: IRA 100% bonds inevitable??

Hi Everlearning,

Do you not have a 401(k), 403(b), or similar workplace retirement account? I hold my bonds in my 401(k), and use my Roth for small value (highest expected return, though of course that could easily go awry).

NightOwl
by NightOwl
Sun Nov 30, 2014 10:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA 100% bonds inevitable??
Replies: 46
Views: 3801

Re: Why do we like dividends?

I don't like dividends in my taxable account, and I try to minimize them as much as possible while remaining invested in equities. Instead of that money staying within my mutual funds and ETFs and coming out taxed as long-term capital gains, it comes out as income taxed (in my case) at a rate much h...
by NightOwl
Fri Nov 28, 2014 12:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we like dividends?
Replies: 114
Views: 8307

Re: My 2015 goal is to get to $100k NW. Is it attainable?

niceguy7376 wrote:You plan on contributing 17.5K for 401k

$18,000 for 2015: IRS 2015 Limits

NightOwl
by NightOwl
Sun Nov 23, 2014 10:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My 2015 goal is to get to $100k NW. Is it attainable?
Replies: 5
Views: 1217

Re: My 2015 goal is to get to $100k NW. Is it attainable?

Hi Jetf, I like your savings plan -- why not think in terms of "savings goals" rather than "net worth goals"? As you note, you have control over your savings, not over market returns -- whether you end 2015 below or above $100k net worth is too heavily dependent on the latter. As...
by NightOwl
Sun Nov 23, 2014 10:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My 2015 goal is to get to $100k NW. Is it attainable?
Replies: 5
Views: 1217

Re: A Little Common Core Math problem

I'm all for pragmatism -- if it's a multiple-choice test, why not try the answer choices? It's a very effective approach. That said, if I were going to do algebra, I'd say that the cat is x and the dog is 8x. 8x + x = 63, so 9x = 63, so x = 7. Dog is 8x, so (8)(7) = 56. The longer conversation is th...
by NightOwl
Thu Oct 30, 2014 1:35 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A Little Common Core Math problem
Replies: 97
Views: 2926

Re: Is a 0.9% wrap fee too high to consider?

Hi Eschaef, Please check the Wiki entry 401k: Expensive and Mediocre Choices . [Edited to add link.] I believe this topic is (David) grabiner's work.Here's what I think is the most pertinent text: A reasonable rule of thumb is to consider investing in a taxable account if the product of the extra co...
by NightOwl
Wed Oct 29, 2014 4:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is a 0.9% wrap fee too high to consider?
Replies: 8
Views: 701

Re: 100% of [surveyed] economists were dead wrong about yiel

And if someone surveys these same economists again today, they will all be chastened by their prior failure and admit that they don't know what will happen to yields gladly provide yet another prediction so that we can have more hand-wringing threads here beginning "Given the consensus amon...
by NightOwl
Sat Oct 25, 2014 1:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% of [surveyed] economists were dead wrong about yields
Replies: 33
Views: 4149

Re: Is Wells Fargo misleading my friend?

I think the "20% in a single stock" is the really disturbing part. Since this is "inherited money" I'm assuming it is a reasonably substantial sum... and come to think of it, these days, isn't it perfectly reasonable to buy odd lots? In a portfolio of, let's say, $100,000 or mor...
by NightOwl
Fri Oct 24, 2014 11:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Wells Fargo misleading my friend?
Replies: 21
Views: 2637

Re: What Are We Doing To Our Young Investors?

Having said all this, I really wonder if these investors are removing money because of downturns or just because they needed some money and didn't have any other funds--nothing for short term goals, nothing for emergencies. Or because they assumed it was part of severing ties with their previous em...
by NightOwl
Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are We Doing To Our Young Investors?
Replies: 29
Views: 4221

Re: How do so many HCEs contribute the max to 401k

Hey all- I might have brought this up in the past, but I repeatedly read, mostly on portfolio check threads, how people with high income contribute 17.5k to their 401k. It seems so common but from everything I've read it seems like a rarity for this to be possible. Is there something I'm missing? M...
by NightOwl
Mon Oct 20, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do so many HCEs contribute the max to 401k
Replies: 30
Views: 2779

Re: Poll: which portion of the chart shows higher volatility

That person is either having a heart attack or telling a lie -- not sure which.

NightOwl
by NightOwl
Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: which portion of the chart shows higher volatility?
Replies: 26
Views: 1475

Re: Can Active Fund Strategy Beat Vanilla Index Fund?

Can it? Yep.

Has it? Yep.

Will it? Dunno.
by NightOwl
Wed Sep 24, 2014 1:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Active Fund Strategy Beat Vanilla Index Fund?
Replies: 25
Views: 1576

Re: Buying property - frank responses requested

Legacy you have to make your own peace with that. My view is leaving your spouse in a reasonable position at your death is very important, legacy to kids less so (assuming they don't have large student loans). Hi Curious1, One of my parents is currently thinking through a similar scenario, and in t...
by NightOwl
Tue Jul 29, 2014 1:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying property - frank responses requested
Replies: 30
Views: 3649

Re: SAT preparation

My daughter will be a junior this year. She is very good student (IB student, takes numerous AP, straight A, does research in Univ of Miami Breast Cancer Institute, was spelling bee champ in Broward and list goes on) She thinks that she needs SAT coaching. I wanted to find out from those who have s...
by NightOwl
Sat Jul 12, 2014 9:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: SAT preparation
Replies: 33
Views: 3227

Re: Heading to Sonoma next week, recommendations please

Flying to SFO Wednesday, renting a car and heading up to Sonoma after a stop at Muir woods. Our rental is just outside of Windsor. I know there are a wealth of places to eat and multiple wine tasting rooms in Healdsburg. Does anyone have any specific recommendations for this area? Looks like J vine...
by NightOwl
Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Heading to Sonoma next week, recommendations please
Replies: 15
Views: 673

Re: in-laws/student loans

Hi VGSailor, It seems to me as though you were put from the start of this mess in a no-win situation; at this point I think we're strictly in damage-control mode. I'm guessing that you have what your in-laws consider to be "lots of money"? They certainly seem to be treating you as a piggy ...
by NightOwl
Tue May 27, 2014 11:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: in-laws/student loans
Replies: 57
Views: 2584

Re: Wait to DCA During Recession

Focus on a robust college experience also, for enhanced longterm financial security... This^. At age 17, you should focus on maximizing your income so that you can save as much as possible. That way, whether returns over your lifetime are robust or muted, you will still have more than enough money ...
by NightOwl
Tue May 27, 2014 8:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wait to DCA During Recession
Replies: 17
Views: 1999

Re: Poll: Do you own Total Bond Market?

I hold 100% of my bond allocation in my 401(k) in Advantage Class shares of Fidelity's Spartan U.S. Bond Index Fund (FSITX), which I consider a near-equivalent to Admiral shares of Vanguard's Total Bond Fund Index Fund (VBTLX).

NightOwl
by NightOwl
Sun May 11, 2014 12:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Do you own Total Bond Market?
Replies: 50
Views: 4577

Re: Market falling emotions

Got my monthly paycheck yesterday. Investable money went into the market today. I looked at my spreadsheet last night to determine what I needed to buy. Other that its effect on what I need to buy once per month, market movement rates a big "don't know, don't care" from me.

NightOwl
by NightOwl
Tue Apr 08, 2014 3:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market falling emotions
Replies: 31
Views: 2382

Re: Less is Beautiful

It's funny for me to read these threads, because I have the opposite problem (if one wishes to term it that). I've always been abnormally uninterested in owning things - I'm living now in a mostly empty apartment that I love for its uncluttered lightness. But I've been trying to learn to buy more th...
by NightOwl
Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:07 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Less is Beautiful
Replies: 29
Views: 4502

Re: The Stock Market's Relentless Bid, Explained

it's called a theoretical question, or a thought experiment, if you will.(Snip) i haven't seen it asked anywhere on this forum. Hi ERMD, I'd recommend searching for "what if everyone indexed?", specifying site:bogleheads.org. It is a good question, in that it signals an interest in the th...
by NightOwl
Sun Mar 09, 2014 12:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market's Relentless Bid, Explained
Replies: 22
Views: 3067

Re: Does a Car Lease Make Sense in this Situation?

I am normally not a fan of leasing but for her situation it might just be a reasonable option, or the best option----if she can get a short enough term to not be stuck in a lease after the move. I think it would be worth exploring buying a used car in the 10K-15K range and selling it when she is re...
by NightOwl
Fri Mar 07, 2014 4:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does a Car Lease Make Sense in this Situation?
Replies: 8
Views: 829

Re: Does a Car Lease Make Sense in this Situation?

The other issue is that generally you can't lease a car "for a year or two"....a unless you are willing to pay a huge amount. Most leases are 36 months. Maybe buy a Honda Civic or Toyota Corolla. If she decides to do the NYC thing, the depreciation will be low compared to most other cars....
by NightOwl
Fri Mar 07, 2014 4:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does a Car Lease Make Sense in this Situation?
Replies: 8
Views: 829

Re: Does a Car Lease Make Sense in this Situation?

A big question is how your state handles sales tax on cars. The problem is that if she buys a car and has to pay 7% sales tax then buying and selling it a year later would be expensive. Leasing has a lot of pitfalls that can cause problems like if the car is in a major accident, even if it repaired...
by NightOwl
Fri Mar 07, 2014 4:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does a Car Lease Make Sense in this Situation?
Replies: 8
Views: 829

Re: Your stock/bond mix for those ~20 yrs from retirement

40 years old, 20+ years from retirement. I'm 80-20. I've decided to pursue a strict age-20 bond allocation from here on out, so will increase bonds 1% per year to a retirement portfolio of 60/40. But we'll see if I actually retire in 20 years. Money-wise I will probably be in good shape, but I like ...
by NightOwl
Thu Mar 06, 2014 11:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Your stock/bond mix for those ~20 yrs from retirement
Replies: 42
Views: 2999

VG webcast: "Spending Strategies for your Retirement Years"

As part of my effort to educate myself about retirement portfolios and spending strategies, I watched a one hour Vanguard live webcast today entitled “Spending Strategies for your Retirement Years” – I don’t yet see a link to the video on the Vanguard site, but I will circle back and add the link on...
by NightOwl
Thu Mar 06, 2014 9:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG webcast: "Spending Strategies for your Retirement Years"
Replies: 6
Views: 888

Does a Car Lease Make Sense in this Situation?

I know very little about cars. I am 40 years old and have never owned one, as I have always lived in cities with excellent public transportation. I am trying to advise my mother about a car situation, so I thought I’d ask my wise Boglehead friends for help. My mother (69 years old) is driving a 12-y...
by NightOwl
Thu Mar 06, 2014 3:08 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does a Car Lease Make Sense in this Situation?
Replies: 8
Views: 829

Re: How Many Funds Do You Have in Taxable?

Four funds in taxable.

Brokerage: VEU + VSS for international, VV (trapped in a tax-loss harvest move, donating these appreciated shares to charity over time)
Taxable mutual fund: VTSAX.

No bonds in taxable -- they are all in my 401k.

I voted four, but with PMM it would be five.

NightOwl
by NightOwl
Thu Mar 06, 2014 12:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many Funds Do You Have in Taxable?
Replies: 97
Views: 5625

Re: Help with frustrating investment issue (family involved)

For new agents, they require you to sell to family and friends to build up your initial sales commissions. I have a close friend whose brother is an insurance salesman for one of the large insurers. When he entered the business, I was an obvious "friends and family" contact. It so happene...
by NightOwl
Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with frustrating investment issue (family involved)
Replies: 26
Views: 2415

Re: Help with frustrating investment issue (family involved)

I bet you can pay a surrender fee and get the money out. You should do that. You are single and don't even need life insurance is there is no one depending on you financially. Take the hit now and get out. That can also save your relationship with your cousin. In his defense, he probably doesn't ev...
by NightOwl
Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with frustrating investment issue (family involved)
Replies: 26
Views: 2415

Re: You know you're a Boglehead when ...

…you look at a million dollars and think "$40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 per year."

NightOwl
by NightOwl
Tue Mar 04, 2014 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: You know you're a Boglehead when ...
Replies: 105
Views: 17244

Re: Invest in taxable opposite weeks of non-taxable?

Every purchase into a taxable account is a new tax lot for the investment holding. If you want to minimize the number of tax lots, make your contributions larger and less frequently. Instead of with each paycheck, save up and contribute monthly. This is an important consideration. If you are invest...
by NightOwl
Tue Mar 04, 2014 12:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest in taxable opposite weeks of non-taxable?
Replies: 10
Views: 401

Re: How Much of Tax Refund Do You Save/Spend..??

I created a $5,000 refund so that I could spend it on $5,000 of paper I bonds.

NightOwl
by NightOwl
Sun Mar 02, 2014 2:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Much of Tax Refund Do You Save/Spend..??
Replies: 68
Views: 2760

Re: Best way to safely increase expected returns

Hi schuyler74, I would say that "a" and "b" are excellent options (60 seems artificially early to retire absent the resources to do so), and "c" seems like a terrible option that risks leaving 60 year old you even shorter of the goal. One variant on "a" is tha...
by NightOwl
Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best way to safely increase expected returns
Replies: 28
Views: 2373

Re: Goodbye HAL

peppers wrote:It has been a good ride my old friend.

We'll sing HAL on its way: "Daisy, daisy, give me your answer do…"
by NightOwl
Sat Mar 01, 2014 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Goodbye HAL
Replies: 35
Views: 2557

Re: Ding! Check engine light is now on.

Short term, things are still looking up. Unemployment is down, economic indicators have been positive for months, the stock market pulled back and then recovered, showdowns in Washington have quieted, the Fed appears to be withdrawing stimulus (probably too slowly but at least in the right directio...
by NightOwl
Tue Feb 11, 2014 2:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ding! Check engine light is now on. [PE10 exceeds 25]
Replies: 108
Views: 11325

Re: Are Individual Bonds Right for You?

When I think about purchasing individual bonds, I think of Liar's Poker and bond dealers bragging about ripping their clients' faces off. There seems to be a huge informational disadvantage for buyers -- Larry Swedroe has written about this issue too. There are lots of ways to be cheated or tricked....
by NightOwl
Fri Feb 07, 2014 3:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Individual Bonds Right for You?
Replies: 57
Views: 3299

Re: Met a guy at an HFT firm - keeps all his money in cash!?

"This guy knows finance like the back of his hand, yet he keeps all his money in cash... why am I not doing that?", "What does he know that I don't?" I'm not sure how to address these doubts. Any comments? Hi boggler, My first thought is that he might know very little about &quo...
by NightOwl
Fri Feb 07, 2014 2:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Met a guy at an HFT firm - keeps all his money in cash!?
Replies: 26
Views: 2867

Re: 401k: Mutual Fund based vs. ETF based

So our group has been advised by our 401k custodian that it might be beneficial to convert our 401k plan to an ETF based plan as opposed to our current Mutual Fund based plan. Of course I haven't heard any reasons why. Does anyone have opinions on the potential pros and cons of either type of plan?...
by NightOwl
Sun Feb 02, 2014 12:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k: Mutual Fund based vs. ETF based
Replies: 13
Views: 1214

Re: Sleeping With Bonds!!!!!

Good post. I think it is pure behavioral stuff. In fact, I am in the midst of a several year DCA into the NJ muni bond fund (duration 7 years) and the Intermediate term investment grade fund (duration 5.5 years) in the IRA. Literally everybody here and everywhere has posted how they were shortening...
by NightOwl
Fri Jan 31, 2014 1:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sleeping With Bonds!!!!!
Replies: 74
Views: 7767

Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!

Hi abuss368, Age-20 in bonds; currently 20% in bonds. Fidelity Spartan U.S. Bond Index Advantage (FSITX) held in 401(k) is 100% of portfolio fixed income. Might add TIPS near retirement. I'm honestly puzzled by the amount of (metaphorical) bandwidth expended on this board about bond allocation. I ge...
by NightOwl
Wed Jan 29, 2014 8:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 135
Views: 15460

Re: Interesting loan opportunity - looking for advice

0 debt. We max 401k and his/her Roth and have about 12k monthly taxable investing. Expenses are about 1.5k/month. Fed tax should be 20% no state tax. 26years old. Just want to check in on this: you guys save $12k per month in taxable and expect to be in the 20 percent Fed range? It's okay if you ar...
by NightOwl
Wed Jan 29, 2014 4:45 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Interesting loan opportunity - looking for advice
Replies: 6
Views: 449

Re: Interesting loan opportunity - looking for advice

I see this type of loan frequently at my company. Bottom line: you are tying yourself to your employer for the length of the loan. Because you post here, I am assuming that you are a valuable employee, so that's why it makes sense for your employer to offer you this kind of deal. I have so far avoid...
by NightOwl
Wed Jan 29, 2014 4:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Interesting loan opportunity - looking for advice
Replies: 6
Views: 449

Re: What Bond Fund do You Invest In?

100% of my bond allocation is held in Fidelity Spartan US Bond Fund Adv (FSITX) in my 401k. If I could purchase CDs in my 401k, I would consider them; ditto stable value. As I have neither of those options, it's total bond all the way. I have a 20+ year horizon, and I understand duration, so I'm not...
by NightOwl
Sun Jan 26, 2014 11:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Bond Fund do You Invest In?
Replies: 43
Views: 2871
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