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Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

Since we've been buying every month and/or every two weeks since 1986 I guess my answer to the OP is no.
I would suggest you set up an auto-debit + auto share purchase for your $500 contribution if able to and just forget about it.
by MnD
Sat Apr 12, 2014 10:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 11498

Re: How are you preparing for the coming bear market

Practicing my "tsk tsk" and haughty belly laugh for the time when friends and associates tell me they "finally got out of this terrible market". 8-)
by MnD
Sat Apr 05, 2014 2:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are you preparing for the coming bear market
Replies: 104
Views: 7768

Re: (Lack of) Emergency Fund - Are We Crazy?

Cool, thanks for the responses. That has always been my thought, but I think it's hearing the tireless drone of "establish an emergency fund!" that made me question if we were being crazy. We have similar job security and in 30 years have never had a cash emergency fund. What we've earned...
by MnD
Tue Apr 01, 2014 10:38 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: (Lack of) Emergency Fund - Are We Crazy?
Replies: 44
Views: 3439

Re: Why is ordered filled at a split penny price point ?

Certain market participants have access to fractional cent order. These market participants also have access to order types that allow them to cut to the front of the line in the order book. These are allowed by law and are exploited primarily by high frequency traders - adding additional expense t...
by MnD
Mon Mar 31, 2014 9:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is ordered filled at a split penny price point ?
Replies: 15
Views: 856

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

i think bb makes an excellent point here and what has happened is an approach that is time-tested and conservative is now perceived as "very risky" by a small but growing percentage of the contributors. I've observed an increasing references to equity ownership as "gambling" and/...
by MnD
Fri Mar 28, 2014 12:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 12744

Re: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep pla

Well, say the plan B (and also the plan A) is simply to withdraw money by reverse balancing on a 3 or 4 funds portfolio. In good times, this takes from equities, some times US, sometimes Int'l, sometimes a mix. In really bad times, this (probably) takes from bonds. In addition to your fixed income ...
by MnD
Fri Mar 28, 2014 8:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep playing
Replies: 241
Views: 24569

Re: Wade Pfau: retirement income strategies

That's quite a list! But in reality, doesn't everyone do retirement the same way - pick some reasonable withdrawal rate, then vary it ad hoc based on market performance and spending needs? Gee I thought so too, but apparently now everybody buys single premium inflation-indexed annuities and creates...
by MnD
Thu Mar 27, 2014 2:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: retirement income strategies
Replies: 17
Views: 2071

Re: Worried about the market

I started regularly investing and purchasing stock funds and bond funds every month in 1986. You might have read that in October 1987, the stock market got a little "exciting". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_%281987%29 As a new investor, it took me only a few months of new contr...
by MnD
Thu Mar 27, 2014 1:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Worried about the market
Replies: 24
Views: 2298

Re: Possible TSP Changes

Go to the web site for each L Fund (for example, L 2020 ), and you can go into the past to view the allocations for L 2020, L 2030, L 2040, and L 2050. You can see that all the funds used to have more F Fund than they do now. L 2050 actually used to have more F Fund than G Fund. Now all the funds h...
by MnD
Wed Mar 26, 2014 3:33 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Possible TSP Changes
Replies: 20
Views: 2438

Re: Ruminatiions on the US bull market

Five years and counting, this bull market is getting long in the tooth, with some of the classic danger signals flashing. I would suggest stop thinking about stock returns in five year bits or whatever other short-term duration fires up your "danger signals". Use the duration of an accumu...
by MnD
Wed Mar 26, 2014 3:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ruminatiions on the US bull market
Replies: 10
Views: 1437

Re: "Spinning Off" my 20 Year Old Son

If you transfer the 529 account to his ownership, he should qualify as non-dependent and be able to take his own exemption and he shouldn't be subject to the kiddie tax. He may also qualify for some of the low and middle-class income college tax breaks that are unavailable to parents with higher inc...
by MnD
Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Spinning Off" my 20 Year Old Son
Replies: 71
Views: 5935

Re: Retirement Calculators

Income and % of income replacement selections drives so much of these "calculators". For example we were "good" for many years according to calculators until my wife went back to work and at an income higher than expected. Then all of a sudden we were "woefully behind" ...
by MnD
Wed Mar 26, 2014 12:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Calculators
Replies: 4
Views: 1042

Re: Statement of the Retirement Funding Problem

In the past 30 years we've experienced boatloads of income and expense variability, some expected and some totally unplanned and unpredicted. The premise, that income while working was some tidy predictable number and expenses, both prior to and after retirement is also some tidy predictable number ...
by MnD
Tue Mar 25, 2014 10:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statement of the Retirement Funding Problem
Replies: 89
Views: 5664

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

stlutz wrote:b) The risk of investing in stocks is a significant decline in the market and it doesn't recover for a decade or two or more--e.g. Japan 1989 or US 1967.


Or US bonds 1941-1981
by MnD
Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 12744

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

Excellent observations. I'd add the slide from 4% to 3.5% to 3% and now 2.5% and even lower as far as SWR for a conventional balanced portfolio. I think a lot of this is PTSD from 2000/01 and 2008 along with a fair contingent of money hoarders who don't want to see their big money pile ever stop gro...
by MnD
Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 12744

Re: Credit cards during and after college.

Most credit card issuers have "starter cards" specifically geared towards students, recent grads, recent immigrants etc. They are _not_ secured cards which I thought were typically for people rebuilding credit after adverse credit events. Many high-rated cards have a "floor" on c...
by MnD
Mon Mar 24, 2014 5:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit cards during and after college.
Replies: 19
Views: 620

Re: Credit cards during and after college.

Daughter got a $500 limit card at her bank when she was 19 - I was joint applicant but it must have keyed off her data given the low limit assigned (her name was listed first). She charges text books to it and I reimburse her. Within a year or so later her credit score was almost 800 (a little under...
by MnD
Mon Mar 24, 2014 5:01 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit cards during and after college.
Replies: 19
Views: 620

Re: Really confused by Bernstein

Myself and many people on this board seem to have plenty of no-growth revenue streams and assets (SS, pension, paid off house, collectibles). I'm certainly not going to de-risk and thus "de-growth" the last remaining slice of the pie, nor am I going to plan on 1% SWR from a balanced financ...
by MnD
Mon Mar 24, 2014 3:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really confused by Bernstein
Replies: 168
Views: 12744

Re: Frugality regret: What thing do you regret not spending

More travel in our 20's pre-kids that wasn't family related. We were still in the college mode as far as visiting "back home" but we had a lot less time off so virtually all our trips were to visit her family or mine. Not buying a gorgeous large piece of tropical land near Port Douglas, Fa...
by MnD
Sun Mar 23, 2014 10:54 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Frugality regret: What thing do you regret not spending on?
Replies: 95
Views: 11489

Re: Help me settle a debate -- Risk in Retirement

There is an additional problem with saving excess money for your kids to inherit someday. That is if you live to be 95 then your kids may have limited use for the money then. We no need, plan use or objectives for the $3M - the OP could consider could call a family meeting and have the kids set up ...
by MnD
Sun Mar 23, 2014 10:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me settle a debate -- Risk in Retirement
Replies: 61
Views: 4212

Re: State Farm or Allstate

Get 4 or 5 quotes including one from an independent insurance agent (find ones in your community at the URL below).
http://www.iiaba.net/agentlocator/findagent.aspx
Limiting it to State Farm or Allstate is like shopping for a mid-sized sedan but limiting it to Ford and Chevy.
by MnD
Sat Mar 22, 2014 6:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: State Farm or Allstate
Replies: 26
Views: 1806

Re: How did you decide how much to save?

We set goals in our early 20's - older decent sized house and big yard, kids with their college paid for, SAHM till the kids hit high school, decent vacations and retire mid-50's with no debt when kids were out of college. We saved what we thought was enough to meet these but it was really variable ...
by MnD
Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you decide how much to save?
Replies: 119
Views: 9156

Re: How important are Int'l Bonds?

I'd like the option, especially stand alone so the investor can select their exposure versus having it lumped into target date funds.
by MnD
Sat Mar 22, 2014 10:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How important are Int'l Bonds?
Replies: 44
Views: 3785

Re: Help me settle a debate -- Risk in Retirement

Saving $3 million for which you have no use or plan for is more than a little overshoot. It wasn't listed as an option but I would have retired 10 years earlier in this scenario. That's exactly what we are doing at 56 with a pension, two claims on SS and a 7-figure portfolio. If we worked to 65 we w...
by MnD
Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me settle a debate -- Risk in Retirement
Replies: 61
Views: 4212

Re: Help me settle a debate -- Risk in Retirement

I'd buy a beach-house or figure out some other way to raise my standard of living in a way that that I and my spouse, kids and grandkids could enjoy now and for years to come and eventually inherit. I don't understand the "I saved millions and now have no use/need/want for it other than to leav...
by MnD
Fri Mar 21, 2014 12:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me settle a debate -- Risk in Retirement
Replies: 61
Views: 4212

Re: [ALERT: Affordable Care Act Phishing Calls]

I answer phone calls, even from those numbers I don't recognize, because I've got kids away at college. Don't they have cell phones? Most everyone has family away somewhere. If it's something legit and real from an unfamiliar third-party they will leave a message. So despite Mom in the nursing home...
by MnD
Fri Mar 21, 2014 12:25 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [ALERT: Affordable Care Act Phishing Calls]
Replies: 16
Views: 781

Re: Talk me out of my TSP L2050 choice

I invested in the TSP on the first day it opened, moved funds into the C, S and I funds first day that was allowed and currently "max out" contributions. I use only the C, S, I and G funds and nothing in F or L funds. "Rolling my own" allows me to tilt to small cap versus a marke...
by MnD
Fri Mar 21, 2014 10:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Talk me out of my TSP L2050 choice
Replies: 20
Views: 1189

Re: Supporting Family Members

I'm 99.9% sure my wife and I are not going to leave an estate in the vicinity of over $20 million or so in a few decades (joint estate tax exclusion is now over $10 million and adjusted annually to CPI). So we don't worry about paying gift tax. The idea of gift of appreciated shares in a good one - ...
by MnD
Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:27 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Supporting Family Members
Replies: 30
Views: 1689

Re: An 8% SWR ???

Depending on whether I use current salary, current expenses that would remain projected into retirement or actual best estimate of projected retirement spending as the numerator, I come up with an SWR of 15.0%, 2.1% or 4% respectively. Bottom line you can't take a current salary and a financial net ...
by MnD
Wed Mar 19, 2014 8:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An 8% SWR ???
Replies: 12
Views: 2082

Re: What "annual" retirement income are you hoping to achiev

I have a hard time believing so many people are shooting for $130,000+ per annum in current dollars... I indicated top category in current dollars (just barely). For a point of reference that's down 40% from current income but +33% more discretionary income in 2018. No mortgage, no savings, no payr...
by MnD
Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What "annual" retirement income are you hoping to achieve?
Replies: 70
Views: 4152

Re: AA Utilizing Both TSP + Vanguard - Near Retirement

It's sounds like a plan to die with multiple millions of dollars. Over $1.3M now, significant inflow and with no plans to expend any. If you go 17 years without spending any, do you really think you'll start loosening up the purse strings in your 70's when you start taking RMD's? If it was me I'd sp...
by MnD
Mon Mar 17, 2014 12:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA Utilizing Both TSP + Vanguard - Near Retirement
Replies: 25
Views: 1356

Re: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep pla

It depends a lot of what % of your expenses are dependent on withdrawals from investment net worth. If the market dropped 50% on the day I retired at 70/30 AA, my total income (under a dynamic 4% of year end balance approach) would drop 15%. That's no fun but it's certainly manageable. Fixed income ...
by MnD
Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep playing
Replies: 241
Views: 24569

Re: Backdoor Roth - why does it make me feel dirty?

No backdoor Roth for me but I am engaging regularly in the 529 "In and Out". 8-)

http://www.finaid.org/savings/state529d ... l#loophole
by MnD
Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backdoor Roth - why does it make me feel dirty?
Replies: 23
Views: 2339

Re: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep pla

I have 2%! Do I hear 1.9%? Going, going, gone... Larry talks about the marginal utility of wealth. What about the marginal utility of time? Is retirement only about not running out of money? Surely, there is some trade-off between having enough money in case something far worse than has happened in...
by MnD
Thu Mar 13, 2014 9:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep playing
Replies: 241
Views: 24569

Re: Improving Credit Score by Timing Credit Card Payments

I do everything wrong as far as all these tricks and techniques. I get new cards whenever "deals" are attractive enough, close old unused cards frequently, occasionally have high utilization and never ever pay a dime on an account before the due date. Both our scores are a little over 800....
by MnD
Thu Mar 13, 2014 3:20 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Improving Credit Score by Timing Credit Card Payments
Replies: 17
Views: 1022

Re: Marvin vs. Andersen Windows: The Eternal Struggle

We replaced 34 1950's windows and frames down to the studs with Milgard Ultra solid fiberglass windows (new construction style). Mostly casement to match the original architecture and a few sliders where the original casements had stuck out into outdoor living space. We spent months comparing Anders...
by MnD
Thu Mar 13, 2014 12:04 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Marvin vs. Andersen Windows: The Eternal Struggle
Replies: 27
Views: 1783

Re: Fed Retirees - convert TSP to your Roth annually?

I consider several reasons for converting to Roth before the age of 70: 1. Taxable RMDs may increase the taxation of Social Security itself and thus the overall tax increase would be higher than the difference in Federal rates alone. 2. Tax rates may increase by the time you reach the age of 70. 3....
by MnD
Wed Mar 12, 2014 6:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fed Retirees - convert TSP to your Roth annually?
Replies: 72
Views: 3522

Re: Fed Retirees - convert TSP to your Roth annually?

I've done some projections and it looks like all the action both now and in retirement is going to be played out in the 25% to 28% marginal tax brackets. Currently in the 28% bracket working, will not drop below the 25% bracket in early retirement (due to the annuity and FERS supplement) and will ma...
by MnD
Wed Mar 12, 2014 4:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fed Retirees - convert TSP to your Roth annually?
Replies: 72
Views: 3522

Re: What If Long-Term Thinking Really Catches On?

Passive investors earn the market return less expenses. Active investors (in total aggregate) must also earn the market return less their expenses. The expenses and poor timing/selection is what kills the typical active investor, not the fundamental pre-expense return potential, which is equal to th...
by MnD
Tue Mar 11, 2014 11:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What If Long-Term Thinking Really Catches On?
Replies: 21
Views: 2021

Re: File FAFSA with 7 figure non-retirement portfolio?

I think filing it hurt our daughters outcome on some merit aid applications she submitted. We were told that merit aid can and is used in cases where you a highly qualified student applies and household resources are just over the line for need aid. A merit aid award in this situation can be extreme...
by MnD
Tue Mar 11, 2014 4:05 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: File FAFSA with 7 figure non-retirement portfolio?
Replies: 22
Views: 1776

Re: How did you get through the market crash in 08-09

In addition to staying the course on 80/20 and rebalancing all the way to the bottom, I did quite a bit of opportunistic spending. Bought a new hybrid car under invoice plus big rebate, federal and state hybrid credits and federal sales tax deduction. Picked up a fancy wood burning insert, did a kit...
by MnD
Tue Mar 11, 2014 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you get through the market crash in 08-09
Replies: 104
Views: 5435

Re: American Airlines Stock

I saw no hope for the common so I bought their exchange-traded bonds around the time of bankruptcy.
I sold later at around a 15% gain. :annoyed
by MnD
Tue Mar 11, 2014 11:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American Airlines Stock
Replies: 12
Views: 1154

Re: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep pla

I notice in these type of threads that the folks that agree with Bernstein also gravitate towards ~2.5% withdrawal rates.
by MnD
Tue Mar 11, 2014 11:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep playing
Replies: 241
Views: 24569

Re: Muni bonds and risk

The GM bond deal was approved by the bondholders and unsecured creditors committees. Recovery, if you were patient and waited for most legal issues to be settled, was almost 50% - above average for a corporate bankruptcy. The warrants that were issued to bondholders, which initially were expected to...
by MnD
Tue Mar 11, 2014 10:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bonds and risk
Replies: 15
Views: 1490

Re: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep pla

I am curious to know what other forum members who are in similar situation are doing ? What does YOUR AA looks like/looked like when you are/were close to retirement ? Age 51 four year out from a mid-50's retirement we are at 75/25 and on a 1% per year reduction in equities glide path until we fix ...
by MnD
Mon Mar 10, 2014 11:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep playing
Replies: 241
Views: 24569

Re: How did you get through the market crash in 08-09

Same story in 1987, 2000/01 and 2008/09. When my allocation moved outside my allowable range, sold bonds and bought stocks until asset allocation was rebalanced. Also did some tax loss harvesting. In 1987 I didn't have to sell anything - my balances were so small and the market recovery was so fast ...
by MnD
Mon Mar 10, 2014 1:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How did you get through the market crash in 08-09
Replies: 104
Views: 5435

Re: Poll: Are you going to retire? And if so, when?

+ Retirement increases the probability of suffering from clinical depression by about 40%. + Retirement decreases the likelihood of being in "very good" or "excellent" self-assessed health by about 40%. + Retirement increases the probability of having at least one diagnosed phys...
by MnD
Sun Mar 09, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Are you going to retire? And if so, when?
Replies: 38
Views: 2975

Re: Happy fifth birthday! [since the 2008-2009 market crash]

If you want to know what happened to your holdings from five years ago, you have to isolate them from everything else. At least that's what I understand five year returns to be. When Vanguard tells you what your five year return in a fund is, they add dividends and capital gains, but not new invest...
by MnD
Sun Mar 09, 2014 4:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Happy fifth birthday! [since the 2008-2009 market crash]
Replies: 54
Views: 3341

Re: Happy fifth birthday!

23.47% 80/20 five years ago with equities split roughly 50-50 US and international. Rebalanced twice back to 80/20 during the 08/09 crash. I've been on a 1% reduction in equity per year glidepath since then, so now 75/25. I suffer from number envy. I wish I could figure out my return in percentage ...
by MnD
Sun Mar 09, 2014 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Happy fifth birthday! [since the 2008-2009 market crash]
Replies: 54
Views: 3341

Re: Happy fifth birthday!

23.47% 80/20 five years ago with equities split roughly 50-50 US and international. Rebalanced twice back to 80/20 during the 08/09 crash. I've been on a 1% reduction in equity per year glidepath since then, so now 75/25. I was quite fired up about equities in Feb 21 2009 thread - "Be greedy wh...
by MnD
Sun Mar 09, 2014 1:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Happy fifth birthday! [since the 2008-2009 market crash]
Replies: 54
Views: 3341
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