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Asset Allocation by Roger Gibson

What ever happened to Roger Gibson? I read his book on asset allocation in the late 1990s and it was frequently discussed on the original Morningstar BOGLEHEADS bulletin board. I think he may even have been a "guru" poster there like Rick Ferri, Larry Swedroe and Bill Bernstein (and a few ...
by Leesbro63
Sat Oct 25, 2014 7:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation by Roger Gibson
Replies: 1
Views: 205

Re: new interesting piece by Asness on hedge funds

How is this hedge fund info actionable for us little investors? Or even if we are big-little investors (can meet hedge fund minimums)?
by Leesbro63
Sat Oct 25, 2014 7:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new interesting piece by Asness on hedge funds
Replies: 9
Views: 533

Re: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren

FWIW this is pretty much the same as Dr. Bernstein's advice. He says to keep your fixed income short...which is close to their comments to keep it as cash. Bernstein admits he's been wrong.....SO FAR.
by Leesbro63
Tue Oct 21, 2014 9:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leon Cooperman giving the same advice as Warren
Replies: 47
Views: 3231

Re: Advice sought for $6M investment

My situation bears similarities to yours. You are wealthy enough to own an individual muni bond portfolio. While I won't go into the benefits in detail, there are major benefits to having tax loss harvesting with individual munis, especially zeros. I would buy as many I-bonds as possible each year,...
by Leesbro63
Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice sought for $6M investment
Replies: 36
Views: 3684

Re: Maximum Number of Medicare Hospital Days

Thanks for that info. But yes, I understand that generally nursing home care is not covered by Medicare. I'm interested in the maximum number of HOSPITAL DAYS, lifetime, and how supplemental insurance may or may not work if and when those are maxed out. Again, nursing home care is not my interest fo...
by Leesbro63
Wed Oct 15, 2014 6:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Maximum Number of Medicare Hospital Days
Replies: 10
Views: 741

Maximum Number of Medicare Hospital Days

I am helping an older friend with Medicare decisions and I noticed that the number of Medicare hospital days is not unlimited as I assumed. What's not clear to me is how this works in the real world. What about someone who lives to old age and has many "lifetime" days that get used up? Can...
by Leesbro63
Wed Oct 15, 2014 4:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Maximum Number of Medicare Hospital Days
Replies: 10
Views: 741

Re: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?

I much prefer when the market is going up. That being said, let's look at the big picture. The DOW close to tripled in just over 5 years. Now it's off 6.5% from it's high.
by Leesbro63
Wed Oct 15, 2014 11:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headed for a 300+ point loss today?
Replies: 430
Views: 28445

Re: Buffett Says ‘No-Brainer’ to Get a Mortgage to Short Rat

Those who financed/re-financed at the nadir (let's say 3.4% or thereabouts) for thirty years, well, that's a gold-mine. In a few years, fixed-income investments will cross, you'll be able to finance the interest on that thirty with a ten-year CD. You could have done this at any time in the past 10 ...
by Leesbro63
Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:24 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buffett Says ‘No-Brainer’ to Get a Mortgage to Short Rates
Replies: 77
Views: 8835

Re: Cost of Pest Control Services

I was paying $35/month until 2005 mainly for monthly spraying for carpenter ants. They went to about $40 and a friend told me about ORTHO HOMEDEFENSE MAX. I fired the exterminator and now spend about $10-$15 PER YEAR for a container of that. I spray monthly in the summer and less often in the winter...
by Leesbro63
Thu Oct 09, 2014 1:19 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cost of Pest Control Services
Replies: 9
Views: 991

Re: Fleetwood Mac tour

I'm a fan and considered going. And I've paid the big bucks to see Elton and a few others. But when I saw the price of FM, even I balked. I don't love 'em $350 (or even $175 in nosebleed) worth.
by Leesbro63
Mon Oct 06, 2014 5:12 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fleetwood Mac tour
Replies: 14
Views: 1403

Re: Bogle on Radio Tonight

Here's the Podcast if you missed the live broadcast. I have not listened yet but will do soon and will comment if there is anything new/exciting. http://www.paytaxeslater.com/radioshow/ ... ur_133.mp3
by Leesbro63
Sat Oct 04, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on Radio Tonight
Replies: 2
Views: 572

Re: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement pl

As you have a collection of bonds so the yield change as a percentage is smaller but over time your yield will drift down (until it changes direction and goes back up). Randomguy, we've been in retirement for 12 years now, with a 50% stock/50% bond portfolio and taking our 2.5% annual withdrawals f...
by Leesbro63
Thu Oct 02, 2014 9:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement plan?
Replies: 63
Views: 3067

Re: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement pl

My guess is that your income would be "close enough" to steady. But to your point if you lived off just the income and dividends, you could probably buy a new car/take a cruise etc in good years on top of that. Lets see how the person living on the S&P 500 divs did in real dollars (ht...
by Leesbro63
Thu Oct 02, 2014 5:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement plan?
Replies: 63
Views: 3067

Re: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement pl

Also I would argue that 2.3% versus 2.5% is a rounding error. There's no way to know for sure that if you withdraw 2.5% in a 2.3% world, you'd be in trouble. Also, for early retirees, the portfolio has to last more than 30 years. Taking the "income", whatever % that turns out to be, from ...
by Leesbro63
Thu Oct 02, 2014 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement plan?
Replies: 63
Views: 3067

Re: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement pl

Also I would argue that 2.3% versus 2.5% is a rounding error. There's no way to know for sure that if you withdraw 2.5% in a 2.3% world, you'd be in trouble. Also, for early retirees, the portfolio has to last more than 30 years. Taking the "income", whatever % that turns out to be, from a...
by Leesbro63
Thu Oct 02, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement plan?
Replies: 63
Views: 3067

Re: The Roosevelts, PBS special

FDR was a very sick man in his third term but that info was kept from the public. He should never have run for a fourth term and the third is problematic too since it defied convention. Yet one could argue that he did a decent job as the WW2 leader, in spite of his health. I guess we'll never know ...
by Leesbro63
Thu Oct 02, 2014 10:09 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Roosevelts, PBS special
Replies: 104
Views: 8536

Re: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement pl

Given that, I've always thought what's simple and intuitive is a portfolio that maintains it's value in real dollars, and casts off enough above-inflation growth to provide cost-of-living funding. So, with that perspective, maybe another way to ask this question is what perpetual withdrawal rate is...
by Leesbro63
Thu Oct 02, 2014 10:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement plan?
Replies: 63
Views: 3067

Bogle on Radio Tonight

I just saw the Mr. Bogle will be on the Jim Lange radio show tonight at 7PM Eastern. www.kqv.com.
by Leesbro63
Wed Oct 01, 2014 2:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on Radio Tonight
Replies: 2
Views: 572

Re: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement pl

5%. If things don't work out, you have plenty of time to go back to work and rebuild the savings. You are not in the same boat as the 65 year old who has to live on that money forever. It all depends on how badly you want to be retired versus how much you fear having to lower your living standards....
by Leesbro63
Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement plan?
Replies: 63
Views: 3067

Re: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement pl

For a 50/50 portfolio, a 2-2.5% portfolio more or less is the income...dividends and interest. That's my plan in 10 years at age 65. To live off the dividends and interest of a 50-50 portfolio. About 2.5%. Very old fashioned...what our pre-Bogle-historic-Bogleheads did. Although in those days divide...
by Leesbro63
Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement plan?
Replies: 63
Views: 3067

Re: The Roosevelts, PBS special

Eleanor also looked old. She died at age 78. Most healthy 78 year old women today look much much younger than Eleanor.
by Leesbro63
Wed Oct 01, 2014 7:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Roosevelts, PBS special
Replies: 104
Views: 8536

Re: How Long Should I Keep My Car?

Park wrote:When I say that it would cause a major problem at work if I didn't show up, that's probably an understatement. And I only own one car.


Then buy a new Corolla/Camry or Civic/Accord every 4-5 years. Your chance of a major breakdown would be very very low with a 5 year or newer one of those.
by Leesbro63
Sun Sep 28, 2014 5:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Long Should I Keep My Car?
Replies: 50
Views: 4090

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

In a situation like this, where IPS / rebalancing says to buy equities and one thinks equities smell, I still buy equities, but only in a taxable account. If equities then fall, I do the TLH thing and shove some of the loss onto the IRS. I am on the opposite side of this. Did TLH in 2009 and now ca...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 4:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 83
Views: 5152

Paul Merriman: DFA Better Than Vanguard

Paul Merriman, in this podcast, kinda makes me wonder if we'd all not be better off paying an adviser and having DFA over Vanguard. What am I missing here?

http://www.paytaxeslater.com/radioshow/LMH-090314.mp3
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 11:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: DFA Better Than Vanguard
Replies: 13
Views: 2024

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

In a situation like this, where IPS / rebalancing says to buy equities and one thinks equities smell, I still buy equities, but only in a taxable account. If equities then fall, I do the TLH thing and shove some of the loss onto the IRS. I am on the opposite side of this. Did TLH in 2009 and now ca...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 11:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 83
Views: 5152

Re: New car and how to handle my father's trade in

Thanks for all this great advice everyone, this is really helpful and we will definitely sell it privately now. I should mention that a dealer where my dad test drove the Tacoma offered him $4k trade in on the spot, without a commitment to buy from my father. So to me it's obvious it is worth more....
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car and how to handle my father's trade in
Replies: 25
Views: 1792

Re: a look at technical indicators

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/23376-swedroe-problems-with-technical-analysis.html new paper on subject Larry A friend of mine teaches a community college course on investing. He teaches a simple technical analysis "method" to sidestep bear markets and re-enter after th...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a look at technical indicators
Replies: 19
Views: 1741

Re: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did

http://www.forbes.com/sites/phildemuth/2013/12/09/the-best-investment-book-of-the-past-ten-years-is-now-a-mutual-fund-plus-q-a-with-antti-ilmanen-and-ronen-israel/?partner=yahootix good interview I think Can also if interested listen to interview I did with Jim Lang radio show http://www.paytaxesla...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did
Replies: 40
Views: 2261

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

If my IPS said buy 10 year Treasuries and down the road a 10 year CD is paying 80 basis points higher (something I didn't anticipate in my IPS) do I "violate" my IPS and go for a 10 yr CD? Why not? It isn't in reaction to panic/media hype - there is some objective data to help you decide ...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 83
Views: 5152

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

As I have added here a few times, however, this poll is not about being flexible or not. It's about what SWR you feel comfortable will survive 30 years (with inflation adjustments) WITHOUT being flexible. And my vote is 2-2.5%. Unknowns over a 30+ year period are such that whatever we may feel to b...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 4007

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

As I have added here a few times, however, this poll is not about being flexible or not. It's about what SWR you feel comfortable will survive 30 years (with inflation adjustments) WITHOUT being flexible. And my vote is 2-2.5%. Unknowns over a 30+ year period are such that whatever we may feel to b...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 4007

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

Kinda makes you wonder what happens when Warren Buffett fades. "Guru risk".
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 113
Views: 10031

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

Larry makes a good point. You might be well ahead of where you expected to be. And might consider lowering your equity allocation. That being said, if you are young (and your ability to save so much fixed income versus the entirety of your portfolio suggests you are in the earlier stages of your inv...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 83
Views: 5152

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

could someone explain the way SWR works? im trying to learn the logic behind it. when you say 4%, does that mean you can withdraw 4% every year and never run out of money (in theory) or is the principal supposed to eventually reach 0 after xx number of years? does it keep up with inflation or are y...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 4007

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

I expect to follow a "4% rule" starting next year. Of course no such fixed numeric rule is 100% guaranteed to work out. But given the size of my accumulation, if I build my budget based on starting with 4% w/d in 2015 (and using the standard idea of a COL increment each year thereafter), ...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 4007

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

I believe the default mode for Bogleheads, when talking about SWR, is the amount that can be withdrawn each year from a portfolio, adjusting for inflation each year, and have the portfolio survive 30 years. There are other ways to define it, but this is the BENGEN/TRINITY (original researchers) meth...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 4007

Re: New car and how to handle my father's trade in

Any vehicle with 200K isn't gonna be worth much to any dealer. Sell it outright. Wont' be worth much to a private party either, but more than to a dealer.
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 26, 2014 8:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car and how to handle my father's trade in
Replies: 25
Views: 1792

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

Ken. wrote:Based on my assumptions it was 3.7% using Firecalc. I assumed a 47 year withdrawal period, and social security plus other funds kicking in at 70. Asset allocation was balanced.


Again, I don't see what SS or other income has to do with how long a pool of assets will last at various drawdown rates.
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 26, 2014 8:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 4007

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

SWR is impacted by your other income. Academically speaking this is not correct. The money will either last 30 years at a specific rate or withdrawal or it will not. The money doesn't know if you have other income! I agree with the technical aspect of your statement, but flexibility is an important...
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 26, 2014 5:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 4007

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

tomd37 wrote:SWR is impacted by your other income.


Academically speaking this is not correct. The money will either last 30 years at a specific rate or withdrawal or it will not. The money doesn't know if you have other income!
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 4007

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

In hindsight, perhaps his "DOW 5000" call and many of his other bad stock calls...not to mention a few bad recent bond calls...might be reflective of "increasingly erratic behavior". EDIT: Although we Bogleheads already know this, this is a reminder to the world that good gurus c...
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 26, 2014 1:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 113
Views: 10031

Re: Car-Certified Lexus LS 460 Vs New ES 350 Vs New RX 350

Some thoughts from a longtime Lexus owner. We currently have a 2014 RX350AWD and an 2009 LS460AWD. Someone mentioned that the LS is now 8 model years old and pretty much the same car that debuted in the fall of 2006. That's correct. The later years have more up to date electronics (I wish I could st...
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 26, 2014 1:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car-Certified Lexus LS 460 Vs New ES 350 Vs New RX 350
Replies: 63
Views: 4301

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

I mentioned Paterno before, but actually this more sort of reminds me of the Jon Corzine story. Not exactly and I am NOT accusing Gross/Pimco of any impropriety. But it's about a master of the universe who stayed too long. Gross still has his fortune while I think Corzine lost his. But it makes me w...
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 26, 2014 1:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 113
Views: 10031

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

I sounds like he is Paternoing. (Paternoing=an old "king of the hill" who stayed too long and doesn't recognize and/or can't adapt to a world that changed from what made him king of the hill). With $2B, why not just buy and Island and spend it down over the next 200-300 years?
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 113
Views: 10031

Re: Bond King Gross to leave Pimco for Janus

There has to be WAY more to this story. Perhaps Gross is "Paternoing" (my term for old men who say too long and crash because the world changed but they didn't know it).
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 26, 2014 8:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 113
Views: 10031

Re: What to do with an older car?

Another view: I wouldn't want the liability or even just the mental worry about someone getting hurt in a car that old. Yeah, I get that when someone buys a $1000 car it's understood to be close to junk. If it were me, I'd donate it versus selling it to a private party. Then it's up to the charity t...
by Leesbro63
Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to do with an older car?
Replies: 22
Views: 1351

Re: New Big iPhones - How to Upgrade Early?

I'd wait for the Moto X coming out later this month. It looks awesome and works with flashplayer(a big downside to Apple). Seems like half the videos I want to play on the Iphone won't work. https://www.yahoo.com/tech/moto-x-review-i-freaking-love-this-phone-97575964474.html K.I.S. Naah. "Flas...
by Leesbro63
Mon Sep 22, 2014 11:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Big iPhones - How to Upgrade Early?
Replies: 18
Views: 2226

Re: Air Purifier for Allergies

Good luck! Let's agree to update this post after some experience with the IQAIR machines
by Leesbro63
Sun Sep 21, 2014 7:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Air Purifier for Allergies
Replies: 29
Views: 1969

Re: Air Purifier for Allergies

I am the original poster. I've used the IQAIR for 2 nights and have not sneezed once. Placebo effect? Maybe, I'd think it tough to fake the body into not sneezing. To be fair, I haven't sneezed much during the day either (outside the bedroom), so perhaps the weather is just good for a low allergy t...
by Leesbro63
Sun Sep 21, 2014 12:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Air Purifier for Allergies
Replies: 29
Views: 1969
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