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Re: The Roosevelts, PBS special

FDR was a very sick man in his third term but that info was kept from the public. He should never have run for a fourth term and the third is problematic too since it defied convention. Yet one could argue that he did a decent job as the WW2 leader, in spite of his health. I guess we'll never know ...
by Leesbro63
Thu Oct 02, 2014 10:09 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Roosevelts, PBS special
Replies: 104
Views: 8051

Re: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement pl

Given that, I've always thought what's simple and intuitive is a portfolio that maintains it's value in real dollars, and casts off enough above-inflation growth to provide cost-of-living funding. So, with that perspective, maybe another way to ask this question is what perpetual withdrawal rate is...
by Leesbro63
Thu Oct 02, 2014 10:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement plan?
Replies: 36
Views: 1515

Bogle on Radio Tonight

I just saw the Mr. Bogle will be on the Jim Lange radio show tonight at 7PM Eastern. www.kqv.com.
by Leesbro63
Wed Oct 01, 2014 2:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on Radio Tonight
Replies: 0
Views: 174

Re: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement pl

5%. If things don't work out, you have plenty of time to go back to work and rebuild the savings. You are not in the same boat as the 65 year old who has to live on that money forever. It all depends on how badly you want to be retired versus how much you fear having to lower your living standards....
by Leesbro63
Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement plan?
Replies: 36
Views: 1515

Re: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement pl

For a 50/50 portfolio, a 2-2.5% portfolio more or less is the income...dividends and interest. That's my plan in 10 years at age 65. To live off the dividends and interest of a 50-50 portfolio. About 2.5%. Very old fashioned...what our pre-Bogle-historic-Bogleheads did. Although in those days divide...
by Leesbro63
Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What SWR/expense multiple to use for early retirement plan?
Replies: 36
Views: 1515

Re: The Roosevelts, PBS special

Eleanor also looked old. She died at age 78. Most healthy 78 year old women today look much much younger than Eleanor.
by Leesbro63
Wed Oct 01, 2014 7:34 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Roosevelts, PBS special
Replies: 104
Views: 8051

Re: How Long Should I Keep My Car?

Park wrote:When I say that it would cause a major problem at work if I didn't show up, that's probably an understatement. And I only own one car.


Then buy a new Corolla/Camry or Civic/Accord every 4-5 years. Your chance of a major breakdown would be very very low with a 5 year or newer one of those.
by Leesbro63
Sun Sep 28, 2014 5:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Long Should I Keep My Car?
Replies: 43
Views: 2990

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

In a situation like this, where IPS / rebalancing says to buy equities and one thinks equities smell, I still buy equities, but only in a taxable account. If equities then fall, I do the TLH thing and shove some of the loss onto the IRS. I am on the opposite side of this. Did TLH in 2009 and now ca...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 4:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 83
Views: 4671

Paul Merriman: DFA Better Than Vanguard

Paul Merriman, in this podcast, kinda makes me wonder if we'd all not be better off paying an adviser and having DFA over Vanguard. What am I missing here?

http://www.paytaxeslater.com/radioshow/LMH-090314.mp3
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 11:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman: DFA Better Than Vanguard
Replies: 13
Views: 1933

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

In a situation like this, where IPS / rebalancing says to buy equities and one thinks equities smell, I still buy equities, but only in a taxable account. If equities then fall, I do the TLH thing and shove some of the loss onto the IRS. I am on the opposite side of this. Did TLH in 2009 and now ca...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 11:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 83
Views: 4671

Re: New car and how to handle my father's trade in

Thanks for all this great advice everyone, this is really helpful and we will definitely sell it privately now. I should mention that a dealer where my dad test drove the Tacoma offered him $4k trade in on the spot, without a commitment to buy from my father. So to me it's obvious it is worth more....
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:35 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car and how to handle my father's trade in
Replies: 20
Views: 1326

Re: a look at technical indicators

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/23376-swedroe-problems-with-technical-analysis.html new paper on subject Larry A friend of mine teaches a community college course on investing. He teaches a simple technical analysis "method" to sidestep bear markets and re-enter after th...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a look at technical indicators
Replies: 16
Views: 1277

Re: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did

http://www.forbes.com/sites/phildemuth/2013/12/09/the-best-investment-book-of-the-past-ten-years-is-now-a-mutual-fund-plus-q-a-with-antti-ilmanen-and-ronen-israel/?partner=yahootix good interview I think Can also if interested listen to interview I did with Jim Lang radio show http://www.paytaxesla...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illmanen and AQR style premium fund +interview I did
Replies: 30
Views: 1507

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

If my IPS said buy 10 year Treasuries and down the road a 10 year CD is paying 80 basis points higher (something I didn't anticipate in my IPS) do I "violate" my IPS and go for a 10 yr CD? Why not? It isn't in reaction to panic/media hype - there is some objective data to help you decide ...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 83
Views: 4671

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

As I have added here a few times, however, this poll is not about being flexible or not. It's about what SWR you feel comfortable will survive 30 years (with inflation adjustments) WITHOUT being flexible. And my vote is 2-2.5%. Unknowns over a 30+ year period are such that whatever we may feel to b...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 3772

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

As I have added here a few times, however, this poll is not about being flexible or not. It's about what SWR you feel comfortable will survive 30 years (with inflation adjustments) WITHOUT being flexible. And my vote is 2-2.5%. Unknowns over a 30+ year period are such that whatever we may feel to b...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 3772

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

Kinda makes you wonder what happens when Warren Buffett fades. "Guru risk".
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 9:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 107
Views: 8329

Re: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony

Larry makes a good point. You might be well ahead of where you expected to be. And might consider lowering your equity allocation. That being said, if you are young (and your ability to save so much fixed income versus the entirety of your portfolio suggests you are in the earlier stages of your inv...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing conundrum/paradox/irony
Replies: 83
Views: 4671

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

could someone explain the way SWR works? im trying to learn the logic behind it. when you say 4%, does that mean you can withdraw 4% every year and never run out of money (in theory) or is the principal supposed to eventually reach 0 after xx number of years? does it keep up with inflation or are y...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 3772

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

I expect to follow a "4% rule" starting next year. Of course no such fixed numeric rule is 100% guaranteed to work out. But given the size of my accumulation, if I build my budget based on starting with 4% w/d in 2015 (and using the standard idea of a COL increment each year thereafter), ...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 3772

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

I believe the default mode for Bogleheads, when talking about SWR, is the amount that can be withdrawn each year from a portfolio, adjusting for inflation each year, and have the portfolio survive 30 years. There are other ways to define it, but this is the BENGEN/TRINITY (original researchers) meth...
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 3772

Re: New car and how to handle my father's trade in

Any vehicle with 200K isn't gonna be worth much to any dealer. Sell it outright. Wont' be worth much to a private party either, but more than to a dealer.
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 26, 2014 8:53 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car and how to handle my father's trade in
Replies: 20
Views: 1326

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

Ken. wrote:Based on my assumptions it was 3.7% using Firecalc. I assumed a 47 year withdrawal period, and social security plus other funds kicking in at 70. Asset allocation was balanced.


Again, I don't see what SS or other income has to do with how long a pool of assets will last at various drawdown rates.
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 26, 2014 8:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 3772

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

SWR is impacted by your other income. Academically speaking this is not correct. The money will either last 30 years at a specific rate or withdrawal or it will not. The money doesn't know if you have other income! I agree with the technical aspect of your statement, but flexibility is an important...
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 26, 2014 5:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 3772

Re: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal R

tomd37 wrote:SWR is impacted by your other income.


Academically speaking this is not correct. The money will either last 30 years at a specific rate or withdrawal or it will not. The money doesn't know if you have other income!
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your best estimate of the SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
Replies: 77
Views: 3772

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

In hindsight, perhaps his "DOW 5000" call and many of his other bad stock calls...not to mention a few bad recent bond calls...might be reflective of "increasingly erratic behavior". EDIT: Although we Bogleheads already know this, this is a reminder to the world that good gurus c...
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 26, 2014 1:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 107
Views: 8329

Re: Car-Certified Lexus LS 460 Vs New ES 350 Vs New RX 350

Some thoughts from a longtime Lexus owner. We currently have a 2014 RX350AWD and an 2009 LS460AWD. Someone mentioned that the LS is now 8 model years old and pretty much the same car that debuted in the fall of 2006. That's correct. The later years have more up to date electronics (I wish I could st...
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 26, 2014 1:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car-Certified Lexus LS 460 Vs New ES 350 Vs New RX 350
Replies: 63
Views: 4153

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

I mentioned Paterno before, but actually this more sort of reminds me of the Jon Corzine story. Not exactly and I am NOT accusing Gross/Pimco of any impropriety. But it's about a master of the universe who stayed too long. Gross still has his fortune while I think Corzine lost his. But it makes me w...
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 26, 2014 1:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 107
Views: 8329

Re: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday

I sounds like he is Paternoing. (Paternoing=an old "king of the hill" who stayed too long and doesn't recognize and/or can't adapt to a world that changed from what made him king of the hill). With $2B, why not just buy and Island and spend it down over the next 200-300 years?
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 107
Views: 8329

Re: Bond King Gross to leave Pimco for Janus

There has to be WAY more to this story. Perhaps Gross is "Paternoing" (my term for old men who say too long and crash because the world changed but they didn't know it).
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 26, 2014 8:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gross moving from PIMCO to Janus, Monday
Replies: 107
Views: 8329

Re: What to do with an older car?

Another view: I wouldn't want the liability or even just the mental worry about someone getting hurt in a car that old. Yeah, I get that when someone buys a $1000 car it's understood to be close to junk. If it were me, I'd donate it versus selling it to a private party. Then it's up to the charity t...
by Leesbro63
Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to do with an older car?
Replies: 22
Views: 1303

Re: New Big iPhones - How to Upgrade Early?

I'd wait for the Moto X coming out later this month. It looks awesome and works with flashplayer(a big downside to Apple). Seems like half the videos I want to play on the Iphone won't work. https://www.yahoo.com/tech/moto-x-review-i-freaking-love-this-phone-97575964474.html K.I.S. Naah. "Flas...
by Leesbro63
Mon Sep 22, 2014 11:29 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Big iPhones - How to Upgrade Early?
Replies: 18
Views: 2155

Re: Air Purifier for Allergies

Good luck! Let's agree to update this post after some experience with the IQAIR machines
by Leesbro63
Sun Sep 21, 2014 7:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Air Purifier for Allergies
Replies: 27
Views: 1573

Re: Air Purifier for Allergies

I am the original poster. I've used the IQAIR for 2 nights and have not sneezed once. Placebo effect? Maybe, I'd think it tough to fake the body into not sneezing. To be fair, I haven't sneezed much during the day either (outside the bedroom), so perhaps the weather is just good for a low allergy t...
by Leesbro63
Sun Sep 21, 2014 12:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Air Purifier for Allergies
Replies: 27
Views: 1573

Re: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my li

For comfort and reliability, go with Japanese. If you want fun, go European and deal with the warranty repairs, unless you lease. You'll still deal with lots of Eurocar warranty repairs, even if you lease. The prone-to-defects car doesn't know it's leased. (But I get it that you'll always be under ...
by Leesbro63
Sun Sep 21, 2014 12:55 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my list
Replies: 58
Views: 5260

Re: The Roosevelts, PBS special

My mother (89), who usually has trouble finding things worth watching on TV, was sad this morning because she just spent the whole week watching the Roosevelts every evening. She doesn't know what to watch again. I agree that it was a good nightly TV activity in a sea of channels with not much else...
by Leesbro63
Sun Sep 21, 2014 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Roosevelts, PBS special
Replies: 104
Views: 8051

Re: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my li

People buy the RDX over the CRV for the same reason many of The Greatest Generation spent $10,000 more for a Lincoln Town Car over a Ford Crown Vic or Mercury Grand Marquis.
by Leesbro63
Sat Sep 20, 2014 7:12 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my list
Replies: 58
Views: 5260

Re: The Roosevelts, PBS special

It was interesting to me how both TR and FDR had challenges similar to what we see today. We tend to think that we live in a new era...and yeah I guess it is. But history does seem to rhyme.
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 19, 2014 8:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Roosevelts, PBS special
Replies: 104
Views: 8051

Re: Air Purifier for Allergies

I am the original poster. I've used the IQAIR for 2 nights and have not sneezed once. Placebo effect? Maybe, I'd think it tough to fake the body into not sneezing. To be fair, I haven't sneezed much during the day either (outside the bedroom), so perhaps the weather is just good for a low allergy ti...
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 19, 2014 7:50 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Air Purifier for Allergies
Replies: 27
Views: 1573

Re: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my li

We also test drove the RDX last spring to replace our 2006 Lexus RX330. We decided against it...it just didn't feel right. We ended up with a new RX350, which is bigger than both the old RX330 (hence our reason for looking at the RDX) and the RDX. That being said, Lexus has a new vehicle, the "...
by Leesbro63
Fri Sep 19, 2014 7:47 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Acura RDX - test drove it again and it's about off my list
Replies: 58
Views: 5260

Re: Air Purifier for Allergies

There is an alternative approach if you have forced air heating and cooling. Furnace filters come with different filtering ability. The last time I looked, Home Depot had 4 levels of filters. I had a situation where we inadvertently brought an allergen into the house. The doctor said it was probabl...
by Leesbro63
Wed Sep 17, 2014 2:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Air Purifier for Allergies
Replies: 27
Views: 1573

Re: Air Purifier for Allergies

I ordered the IQAIR machine for homes. $900. I'll report back after a few weeks. It should arrive Friday.

EDIT: So far so good. It arrived TODAY, 20 hours after I ordered it!
by Leesbro63
Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:41 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Air Purifier for Allergies
Replies: 27
Views: 1573

Re: The Roosevelts, PBS special

TR in action Was able to watch TR in action on PBS last night, at one point I was surprised on how bad he was looking after his expedition to The River of Doubt in Brazil, and he was only 50 years old then. Yes, I also was surprised at how those very old films clearly showed the progressive aging o...
by Leesbro63
Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:40 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Roosevelts, PBS special
Replies: 104
Views: 8051

Air Purifier for Allergies

I am thinking about buying an air purifier. I've had seasonal allergies since I was about 7 (I'm 54 now). The good news is that I'm fine from October to April here in Pittsburgh. Indoor air, outdoor air...nothing bothers me then. But summers can be miserable. I've read mixed reviews about indoor roo...
by Leesbro63
Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Air Purifier for Allergies
Replies: 27
Views: 1573

Re: Car Advice: When to Replace?

Look at the prices of new cars with incentives vs the same model as a used car. It seems like the difference has become very slim. In fact, I helped my daughter buy a new car this summer. The new car with incentives was CHEAPER than the 1 year old used models of the same thing. It makes no sense to...
by Leesbro63
Mon Sep 15, 2014 9:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car Advice: When to Replace?
Replies: 37
Views: 2790

Re: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...

Exactly how do you do this? FWIW, I have 3 years cash flow in tax-advantaged accounts in each of VFSUX and VBILX, 6 years total. That said we are withdrawing about 2% pa, and that comes from our tax-advantaged VSMGX account. The pure bond funds are an emergency stash we can tap if we need to. L. We...
by Leesbro63
Mon Sep 15, 2014 6:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...
Replies: 191
Views: 14035

Re: The Roosevelts, PBS special

I recorded it. Correct me if I am wrong...I got 30 minutes of actual Roosevelt show, and 15 minutes of how great Ken Burns is and 15 more of PBS begging. Am I missing something? You probably watched the one-hour preview of the series. I saw that last month. The series is seven two-hours episodes. H...
by Leesbro63
Mon Sep 15, 2014 6:29 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Roosevelts, PBS special
Replies: 104
Views: 8051

Re: The Roosevelts, PBS special

I recorded it. Correct me if I am wrong...I got 30 minutes of actual Roosevelt show, and 15 minutes of how great Ken Burns is and 15 more of PBS begging. Am I missing something?
by Leesbro63
Mon Sep 15, 2014 5:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Roosevelts, PBS special
Replies: 104
Views: 8051

Re: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...

Exactly how do you do this? FWIW, I have 3 years cash flow in tax-advantaged accounts in each of VFSUX and VBILX, 6 years total. That said we are withdrawing about 2% pa, and that comes from our tax-advantaged VSMGX account. The pure bond funds are an emergency stash we can tap if we need to. L. We...
by Leesbro63
Mon Sep 15, 2014 4:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dangerous practice of rebalancing...
Replies: 191
Views: 14035
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