Bogleheads.org

LadyGeek wrote:Please stay on-topic-: Has the S&P 500 Price Return index peaked at 1,667.47 (as of 17-May-2013 )?

BTW, The S&P 500 Total Return is currently at 2,952.56.

What timeframe does that total return refer to?

100% agree, LH. Market timing is market timing. I have no problem with "short bonds always," if that's what's appropriate for an investor. But I do have a problem with "short bonds now." "Market timing" is nothing but words. Often it feels like we use them in this Foru...

When all the people who wrote the books that determined the course most of us set are warning us about bonds, based on their years of study of markets, it seems to me its worth paying attention. This commentary by Malkiel explains quite cogently the current problem with bonds: http://www.marketwatc...

I would not go backwards on the bond allocation edit: Desired Asset Allocation: 80% stocks / 20% bonds (high stock %, but had higher stock in 2008-2009 and sold nothing…open to 75/25…but why not cut down on bonds in current environment if I know I won’t sell stocks?) I was responding to that "c...

For an accumulator, I do not understand how changing duration in regards to interest rate expectation is expectantly better than stay the course bond investing. I assume they will shorten now, then lengthen again later, then rinse repeat. If it works expectantly, then one should be in an active bond...

I would expect gold to drop to around 800 Or less if economy does well, but I know my expectation doesn't mean anything

I would posit: To deal intellectually with any issue you have to strip out the content free talk Gold bug Barberous relic Etc. in this case. People who hold gold, are not bugs. ..... Etc. if gold is a barberous relic, fort knox should be sold, and emptied of the relic, and quit wasting money guardin...

has anyone who has done tax lost harvesting come to regret it? And think that it is actually not worthwhile? I used to think it was perhaps an expectant wash, as one is simply reducing cost basis, but reading posts of retirees, and people who have looked at decumulation tax wise, I have come to real...

current allocation: 44 years old 78 stock 19 bonds 3 percent gold (not quite there yet, dca to it) 13 percent: TSM, SCV, REIT and foreign: Europe, austrailiasia, emerging (50/50 US/foreign stock split) 9.5 percent each: TIPS, and Aggregate bonds (50/50 nominal/tips split) 3 percent gold (probably on...

If you read the Annual Report (I always recommend doing so), you will see that of the 80% turnover for 2012, 49% was attributable to "mortgage-dollar roll activity." So, the base turnover was only 31%. My recollection is that mortgage dollar role activity was only included in turnover in ...

Based on discussions here and the writings of folks like Wade Pfau, I have at times considered amending my IPS to call for a downward shift in equities as P/E10 levels exceed normal ranges. With mean P/E10 around 16, the current 24 level seems like a time to start downshifting. Do you adjust your s...

7 percent real 10 percent nominal Those are the figures. They are just historical. Some say 6 instead of 7. Yeah us is an outlier. In terms of Gordon and pe10: What did they say about future returns in 1979 1980 1981? In those years, as applied then historically? What numbers did they spit out? It w...

I would stay the course. Financial repression is painful for savers, but bonds even paying negative real, are one of the only things that will possibly protect your money if stocks tank. Yeah, you can try CDs, just not in cyprus please, and i bonds, and series E, but really beyond those which are li...

I would junk that and start over, have to take into account taxable accounts if any, and tax consequences. All those small allocations are just noise. Now, if you are actually Bill Gates, then sure, something like that has meaning perhaps if 1 percent is a billion dollars or something, gotta spread ...

How does the new healthcare law figure into this?


Can a 40 year old retiree just sign up for free healthcare now?

Zero to 10 percent bonds. Unless you already have a lot of money saved/inherited. Really, do what you want, you just have to stay the course. More bonds is more conservaative. U may sleep better not capitulate when the next crash comes. Nothing wrong per se with going 50/50, what the heck, it is wha...

Thanks

The problem isn't the fund it's the index. The idea of the agg. bond index is to create a statistically accurate reflection of the bond market. If they have a 30 year bond one year, the next year you would think it would be the 29 year bond. No, they sell it and replace it with a more statistically...

0 I have not read a reason to own foriegn bonds as of yet. But I am open to it if someone has a reason to share : ) mike piper tweeted this one : http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/01/investing/money-manager.moneymag/index.html Thanks, yeah, I still just do not get the whole bond bubble thing for an accu...

I have a friend who has a 401K, and a government pension plan that sounds like a Defined benefit traditional pension. He will retire in 7 years. I would assume he and his wife are eligible to contribute to a roth ira 1)either directly if they are under income limit or 2)Via backdoor method of a nond...

in 4/2007 I did an internal rate of return, it was 12 percent. I did an internal rate of return 1/13 and it was 7.35 on my largest account. Not inflation adjusted. But anyway, we are in range of the usual returns that the stock market expectedly gives of 7 percent real (some say more like 6ish) and ...

I was looking at the turnover of bnd etf vanguard aggregate bond fund and it stated it had 80% annual turnover? http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=BND Which seems high given its medium duration? reason I was looking, and then asking, is that the whole thing with "interest rates will rise, and bond...

random walk down wallstreet 1984
atlas shrugged
your money or your life
millionaire next door

the concepts of marginal utility and sunk cost, but I forget where I came upon them first.

The Permanent Portfolio has 4 Asset classes. 25 gold 25 cash 25 stocks 25 long bonds The first two assets, 50 percent, expectantly on their own, provide zero real return. The remaining 50 percent, is a traditional Boglehead portfolio (really one could throw the cash in their as well, but its pretty ...

PEIX Feb-16-06 $17.53 500 $8,765 $8,840.00 Feb-1-06 $17.06 200 $3,412 $3,424.99 05/08/06 35.8 200 -$7,160 -$7,147.01 02/04/08 6.31 500 -$3,155 -$3,080.00 xirr -18.04% -19.62% w/ commissions nvidia Aug-6-02 NVDA $4.52 200 $20 923.99 Jul-26-02 NVDA $7.63 100 $20 782.99 Jun-28-02 NVDA $8.93 100 $20 912...

if it works, make a mutual fund out of it, and ZOOOM that mutual fund is off to the races. lots of mullah for the operator and maybe even the investor..... cept.... doesnt happen. Mutual funds are actually TRACKED, they actually have to buy and sell things, and not just talk in vague terms about wha...

Geesh Mean I haven't looked...... But how did a 60/40 do in the 30s and the 70s???? Probably pretty [lousy --admin LadyGeek]. ..... I really doubt anything is changed. Buy and hold means buy and hold through the great depression people....... Buy and hold is hard 1) no guarantee of success 2) you a...

Geesh Mean I haven't looked...... But how did a 60/40 do in the 30s and the 70s???? Probably pretty [lousy --admin LadyGeek]. ..... I really doubt anything is changed. Buy and hold means buy and hold through the great depression people....... Buy and hold is hard 1) no guarantee of success 2) you ar...

Based on prior experience with these types of death knell proclamations, the 60/40 portfolio is probably poised for a resurgence and everyone will be hailing its virtues 5 years from now. Stick to your plan - that's my plan. I honestly don't see any scenario in which bonds can have anything resembl...

Our bread-and-butter living expenses are paid for by a single rental house we own, which generates about $25,000 per year after expenses Would like to see this explained more. One rental, 25k net income/year?? 4 years 100k 8 years 200k? 12 years 300k And that without rent raises..... Is he renting ...

I would be very hesitant to move to a more aggressive allocation. It's the opposite of the normal, becoming more conservative. It corresponds to stock market going up. I would step back, wait a year, think about it, do nothing for now, now hurry. A Human timing, versus a human doing something for al...

Let me get this straight. You are saying, that when the Fed buy Treasuries, this does not increase the monetary base? Also the corollary, that when the Fed sells treasuries, it does not decrease the monetary base? That's exactly what I'm saying, but if you don't believe me, let's get Fed Chairman's...

What assets are being swapped by the treasury for the money they receive from the Central bank/Federal Reserve, other than bonds? If it is only bonds, this is called monetizing the debt and is inflationary (in terms of money supply) and will be inflationary (in terms of prices.) QE swaps Treasuries...

Gold (or most commodities) can protect you from both elements of unexpected inflation, demand shock or supply shock. Foreign currency exposure largely just protects you from the former. At any price? Gold is already trading at near 3 times it's inflation-adjusted average price. At what price does i...

If you invest in gold because you value the diversification benefits gold can provide -- hedging the risks of loose monetary policy and some geopolitical events -- it's perfectly appropriate to have a small part of your portfolio in gold as part of your asset allocation plan. Just be sure that you ...

Gold protects in states where both stocks bonds may not. Gold can jump up not just twice, but 4-5 times in such states . Hyperinflation/high inflation events are often a consequence of collapse of a domestic currency relative to others. Iceland 2008 gold soared in domestic currency terms, but remai...

I am right with you. Early 40s. I think I will drop to half time and/or change jobs. Will try to gut it out a few more years. Amazing the degradation in medicine is it not? Me and my colleague were just discussing how nonsensical it has become tonight. Same thought, just earn expenses, save little t...

There are two seperate but conflated issues with gold 1) the end of the world, caves, gold to 20,000 side of issue. 2) the behavior of gold under MPT variance correlation, in a rebalanced portfolio consisting of anywhere from 5-10 percent in a boglehead portfolio with gold in it, to the Permanent po...

Gold is easy. There's a 5000 year history to look at. Gold pays no cash flow and does not grow. When the price spikes, either there will be hyperinflation or the price will fall back to its long-term average price. Not much else to talk about. Rick Ferri I don't think it is that easy. The average p...

Sorry to change the subject a little bit. However, can someone that's a little smarter than me tell how Gold affects the performance of the Precious Metals & Mining Fund (VGPMX)? Always been curious how they are correlated. Obviously there is some sort of correlation. I doubt that I'm smarter t...

Gold is easy. There's a 5000 year history to look at. Gold pays no cash flow and does not grow. When the price spikes, either there will be hyperinflation or the price will fall back to its long-term average price. Not much else to talk about. Rick Ferri I don't think it is that easy. The average p...

Gold is easy. There's a 5000 year history to look at. Gold pays no cash flow and does not grow. When the price spikes, either there will be hyperinflation or the price will fall back to its long-term average price. Not much else to talk about. Rick Ferri Well, I would add in flat out devaluation to...

Yesterday I noted the comment of Charlie Munger, Vice-Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway [BRK.A BRK.B] comment that “civilized people don’t buy gold”. They are not simply involved in a zero-sum game in which the goal is to outsmart the computer system in the trading markets. They invest in productive b...

I always find the widesread perjorative tone against gold fascinating. Gold per report, does have a bit of a support level around 12k, because that is where gold miners start to become unprofitable. It's the Argentinian pesos in 2001 issue at heart, scary stuff. The 500 is interesting, but gold was ...

Perhaps I am totally way off base here but I want to be the most aggressive I can be in the early years while staying extremely well diversified. Pay off your debt at 6.8 percent. Thats a no brainer in terms of return. "extremely well diversified" Look, 100 percent stocks at your age is f...

60/40 stocks/bonds

with 7 million, I would get a fee only planner consult, and a tax planner consult too.

Interesting. I went with a full tuition academic scholarship to my home state med school, and also, governments being what they are, the state government gave me a full tuition disability scholarship as well, but only if I went to my home state. so double tuition scholarship in state medical school....

You have not bought it, because you really do not want it. You do not want it, because really you would not get utility from it. You would likely on average, just consider it a stupid wasteful purchase. The idea of buying it is appealing and has utility, but the actual buying of it would not generat...

madbrain wrote:I think we need a new coin for that.

one bitcoin will soon cover all that : P

one US bill weighs 1 gram.

picture represents a billion Kg in weight.