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Re: Do you use a dry powder/tactical asset allocation strate

As there is the famous, dry powder mutual fund that takes this moronically easy trick, applies it, and beats passive index finds consistently..... It's ticker is...... Hmmmmm..... FPACX? 41% in cash as of 12/31/2013, 9.88% annual return over last 15 year ? Just to be clear, are you saying fpacx, em...
by LH
Thu Apr 24, 2014 6:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you use a dry powder/tactical asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 27
Views: 2221

Re: Can my computer hear me?

I work in computer security, and I can assure you that no companies out there are using your microphone to target advertisements. They are based on your search and browsing history. Install ad-block plus on your browser and forget about em. Heck yeah, it's not like all your emails are stored and se...
by LH
Thu Apr 24, 2014 5:24 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can my computer hear me?
Replies: 32
Views: 2356

Re: Why Utah 529 instead of Vanguard 529?

I have both the vanguard Nevada 529 as well as Utah possibly for over ten years, definitely 5. Utah over time seems better, they constantly drop ERs, fees, etc over years. even for out of staters. It has a very good feel to it. It feels almost conscientious. Which is something I don't feel about any...
by LH
Wed Apr 23, 2014 11:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Utah 529 instead of Vanguard 529?
Replies: 32
Views: 2428

Re: POLL: why carry cash?

The Growing Perils of the Cashless Future http://www.cnbc.com/id/101605846 saw this headline, thought of this thread. Its ok, nothing special. Also, if a 2007,8 US event happens, and the ATMS do run dry next time, as was talked about in the media, it would be good to have cash on hand. Cash I think...
by LH
Wed Apr 23, 2014 2:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: why carry cash?
Replies: 225
Views: 7607

Re: FORUM REACHES 2,000,000 POSTS TODAY

: )

LH
by LH
Tue Apr 22, 2014 1:14 pm
 
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: FORUM REACHES 2,000,000 POSTS TODAY
Replies: 52
Views: 1643

Re: Hit your #, Still want to work, does your savings % chan

I have not per se hit my number, but I have cut back on work. I will save less as a result. Kids are 11, 12 now. In a few years they may not want to spend so much time with us. In 6-7 years, they will be gone to college. Kinda a sweet spot now in terms of the kids. No matter how much I would have sa...
by LH
Tue Apr 22, 2014 1:39 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hit your #, Still want to work, does your savings % change?
Replies: 47
Views: 3889

Re: Do you use a dry powder/tactical asset allocation strate

Oh yeah Dry powder You hold cash, until prices are "low" then you buy. You win by this simple tactical maneuver of timing the market! You don't even have to do it yourself.... As there is the famous, dry powder mutual fund that takes this moronically easy trick, applies it, and beats passi...
by LH
Mon Apr 21, 2014 1:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you use a dry powder/tactical asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 27
Views: 2221

What is your net worth

I am not looking for a reply, just a poll response. Pick the number that you are under. If your net worth, assets-liabilities (include home equity and mortgage) is 300,000 you would choose the 500K option.
by LH
Wed Apr 16, 2014 6:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your net worth
Replies: 37
Views: 5429

Re: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get

Calm Man, the correction was roughly from 16,600 down to 16,000 on the DOW but the news media really played it up and people scare easily. I know it was roughly 3% but when the media gets a hold of that watch out. A 30% correction will cause some folks to get religion. http://www.investopedia.com/t...
by LH
Wed Apr 16, 2014 6:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get
Replies: 72
Views: 5384

Re: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get

Pre 2007, I was using 50 percent drop starting tommorrow. I said if the market drop 50 percent tommorrow, it would not phase me. The actual market blowup really didnt hit me much mentally, I was fighting to not go more stock and sell bonds instead. Nowadays I use 70-90 percent drop mentally, a great...
by LH
Wed Apr 16, 2014 6:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks: How Bad It Can Get
Replies: 72
Views: 5384

Re: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous

Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous Yes, it does. Japan shows that a market crash can last long enough to convert shallow risk into deep risk. For those looking at Japan and coming up with reasons after the fact is kind of like how black swans are always reasoned out--after the fact. Is a...
by LH
Wed Apr 16, 2014 5:52 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous
Replies: 79
Views: 4148

Re: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous

I am going to come to Bernston's defense here. Whether you disagree with his post or not or if you think there were problems with the data, there are things that emerge from this thread. First, valuations matter and they matter a whole lot. Or as Warren Buffett said, "Geometric progressions ev...
by LH
Wed Apr 16, 2014 5:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Does not Show That Stocks are Dangerous
Replies: 79
Views: 4148

what is a secured creditor, are muncipal bonds secured?

I have been following detroit with some interest: Detroit Files Debt-Cutting Plan http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303775504579396992180729508 or https://www.google.com/search?q=wsj+detroit&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&...
by LH
Tue Apr 15, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what is a secured creditor, are muncipal bonds secured?
Replies: 2
Views: 203

Re: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific

stocks are more risky, they must pay out more than bonds to get people to take the risk of stocks. sounds good, but completely wrong for past 50 years. You lost me here. No one knowledgeable believes the second clause of the first sentence. Indeed as stated you have an oxymoron. A statement that is...
by LH
Tue Apr 15, 2014 5:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific
Replies: 46
Views: 2272

Re: Save for 25 years = $1million?

A nephew is 25 years of age, no college, good job with fairly good pay at a Fortune 500 company. He works hard and they like him; he had received several raises and promotions. He is not yet married and has no children. At a recent family gathering, he asked me how much he would have to save each m...
by LH
Mon Apr 14, 2014 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Save for 25 years = $1million?
Replies: 22
Views: 4007

Re: gold , silver, copper and uranium only

Gold, held as part of a portfolio, and rebalanced, is an asset class. Expectantly, the portfolio, will have a better sharpe ratio. Also expectantly, the portfolio may well have better performance with a 5-10 percent allocation to gold. Remember, its the rebalanaced portfolio's performance , not the ...
by LH
Mon Apr 14, 2014 2:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: gold , silver, copper and uranium only
Replies: 46
Views: 2244

SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific

SCV tilt to get the SCV premium, will simply work, until it does not. There really is no evidence what it will do going forward. The market, is a complex chaotic system that humans do not understand, and cannot predict, its a sum total of human actions, human behavioralism, herd behavoir, etc. Its a...
by LH
Mon Apr 14, 2014 1:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific
Replies: 46
Views: 2272

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

RUN!

RUN!

the SKY! the SKY!


or.....

just stay the course

I will see you at sp500 666 : )

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3cb7838e-a547 ... ab7de.html
by LH
Sat Apr 12, 2014 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 742
Views: 123189

negotiation for MD, contracts, RVUs etc

Physicians are not great negotiators. I do believe this to be true. In the past, the situation in my field was more in line with partnerships/psuedopartnerships in my field, now it is moving towards publicly traded companies. In the past, I signed contracts which stipulated little per se, and things...
by LH
Fri Apr 11, 2014 12:31 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: negotiation for MD, contracts, RVUs etc
Replies: 11
Views: 818

Re: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and pract

Then the issue is that foreign bonds are not in much better position than US, and possibly worse. Other than the dollar, the world has three reserve currencies: the euro, the pound, and the yen. Of the euro countries, maybe three have a AAA credit rating. Japan has far larger demographic problems t...
by LH
Fri Apr 11, 2014 4:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and practice
Replies: 19
Views: 1187

Re: The case against small cap value

If you were in circa 1959 would you be saying the same thing about the stock/bond yield ratio? Great risk explanation then, stocks more risky, must payout more than bonds to get people to take risk, lots of history behind it then, had pretty much always reverted, sounded great. eminently reasonable...
by LH
Thu Apr 10, 2014 4:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case against small cap value
Replies: 53
Views: 5153

Re: The case against small cap value

My take is that the small premium is definitely risk based and will persist. All my analysis & reading suggests that BOTH the small value and the small growth categories beat small blend and the weight of evidence seems to be in small value's favor. Even if I'm wrong about small value though I'...
by LH
Wed Apr 09, 2014 8:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case against small cap value
Replies: 53
Views: 5153

Re: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and pract

Funny that you say "Living in a small (and economically insignificant) country, I don't have the luxury of thinking of my government treasuries as a riskless investment. For that reason I've decided to allocate at least 33% of my bond portion to US treasuries." That insignificant country ...
by LH
Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and practice
Replies: 19
Views: 1187

Re: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and pract

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=IGOV+Profile IGOV ER 0.35% http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=963577#963577 There is one link with reasons to skip fBonds. My main reason is that the ER is somewhat higher, at 0.35 percent, than with the 0.08 ER of BND or Vanguards US AGG fund, the 0.2 ER...
by LH
Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in foreign government bonds - theory and practice
Replies: 19
Views: 1187

Re: how do browsers make money?

thanks for information
by LH
Wed Apr 09, 2014 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: how do browsers make money?
Replies: 7
Views: 909

Re: Help me understand Michael Lewis' "Flash Boys"

3). Why do they cancel all those trades?? No information...... Then why the fake trades? It shouldn't be so confusing --- this is really straightforward to understand. First of all, we're talking about quotes, not "trades." In other words, the question is why it should be the case that th...
by LH
Wed Apr 09, 2014 4:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand Michael Lewis' "Flash Boys"
Replies: 165
Views: 8833

how do browsers make money?

With Chrome, firefox, and such, how do they make money to support their upkeep? I can see like IE, Chrome, maybe it doesnt matter or something to a company like google, but how does say firefox make its money of me using it?
by LH
Wed Apr 09, 2014 7:57 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: how do browsers make money?
Replies: 7
Views: 909

Re: Vanguard REIT Index (VGSIX): a Good Investment, Now?

Vanguard REIT Index (VGSIX): a Good Investment, Now? In my opinion nearly any question with the word "now" in it , is probably the wrong question. I have no opinion on the timing part of the question. In my opinion Vanguard REIT Index adds diversification benefit (thru low correlation to ...
by LH
Wed Apr 09, 2014 12:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard REIT Index (VGSIX): a Good Investment, Now?
Replies: 7
Views: 1156

Re: Help me understand Michael Lewis' "Flash Boys"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49333454 Cancelled orders are routine, and done purposefully. A significant amount of hft orders are made then cancelled. This provides them with information. The above is just one algo, just one example. http://www.zerohedge.com If you want to read, and SEE what happens, the...
by LH
Tue Apr 08, 2014 2:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand Michael Lewis' "Flash Boys"
Replies: 165
Views: 8833

Re: Vanguard REIT Index (VGSIX): a Good Investment, Now?

Timing, I have no clue, and neither does anyone else.

Long term, great asset class for a passive indexor, return near stocks, and beneficial correlation.
by LH
Tue Apr 08, 2014 2:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard REIT Index (VGSIX): a Good Investment, Now?
Replies: 7
Views: 1156

Re: Help me understand Michael Lewis' "Flash Boys"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49333454 Cancelled orders are routine, and done purposefully. A significant amount of hft orders are made then cancelled. This provides them with information. The above is just one algo, just one example. http://www.zerohedge.com If you want to read, and SEE what happens, they...
by LH
Tue Apr 08, 2014 9:31 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand Michael Lewis' "Flash Boys"
Replies: 165
Views: 8833

Re: Is Alpha Dead?

Heh,

As long as there are people willing to pay 2 and 20 the mythical "alpha" will never die : )
by LH
Tue Apr 08, 2014 3:22 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Alpha Dead?
Replies: 38
Views: 2269

Re: Why pay off your house?

Isn't housing a life-long cost? IF you factor it as a constant cost into retirement, do you need to rush to pay it off now? If yes, what about the loss of a tax deduction? Don't you want your money more liquid than dependent on the real estate market? Confused..... "Re: Why pay off your house?...
by LH
Sun Apr 06, 2014 11:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why pay off your house?
Replies: 119
Views: 8620

Re: The Unthinkable Disaster: What If Your Account Disappear

Diversification. Don't put all your eggs with the future madoff or mf Corzine. Instead of all vanguard, use fidelity too. Cash, in us, euros, Canadian, depending on your desire. Foriegn bank account, there are some early cap controlish IRS forms to consider, as well as maybe increased irs audit risk...
by LH
Sun Apr 06, 2014 6:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Unthinkable Disaster: What If Your Account Disappeared?
Replies: 43
Views: 4695

Re: Implementing David Allen's Getting Things Done (GTD)

Does the OP or any of the posters benefit financially from GTD? This thread has a salesman like feel to me.

just wondering,

LH
by LH
Sat Apr 05, 2014 10:28 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Implementing David Allen's Getting Things Done (GTD)
Replies: 46
Views: 4345

Re: The case against small cap value

SCV has been doing just fine. It has outperformed Total US Market Index (TSM) quite nicely over the past year (30% vs 26%). One can use the relative performance between SCV and TSM to help one decide whether to add to one or the other or both during the accumulation phase and whether/when to rebala...
by LH
Thu Apr 03, 2014 10:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case against small cap value
Replies: 53
Views: 5153

Re: The case against small cap value

1) I basically believe French fama factors likely will end up a footnote. 2) I believe scv MAY outperform in my investing lifespan. 3) I believe scv WILL fall out of favor, such that maybe even French, fama, or both say it no longer works..... I tilt scv anyway. 1) it's one part of four corners, it'...
by LH
Thu Apr 03, 2014 12:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case against small cap value
Replies: 53
Views: 5153

Re: Should I include my pension in my portfolio?

I do not follow neccessarily, but will just assume I do. Roughly: X is what you need per year to live on. 25x is the number needed to retire on allocation only 25(x-pension) is what you need in your AA to retire on with a pension. You set your allocation stock bond split based on need ability willin...
by LH
Wed Apr 02, 2014 11:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I include my pension in my portfolio?
Replies: 16
Views: 1449

Re: Bogle: Tilt To Corporates For More Yield

Chasing yield is a very human thing. At any given time, one can add riskier assets to get more yield expectantly........ Unless the risk shows up. Then you get the hit. So sure, as worldwide, debt to GDP ratios go up in the west, start moving on the risk curve for yield... Surely no possible bad out...
by LH
Tue Apr 01, 2014 10:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Tilt To Corporates For More Yield
Replies: 71
Views: 7110

Re: Why is ordered filled at a split penny price point ?

I have read before if order is filled to four decimal places as in .xxxx it was a hft on the other side. Seemed authoritative when I read it, but cannot remember source.
by LH
Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is ordered filled at a split penny price point ?
Replies: 15
Views: 886

Re: How important are Int'l Bonds?

I believe the jury is out whether or not indexing is the proper way to package bonds (unlike with equities, where there are plenty of validating studies.) Nice points above. I'm not sure about the last statement, though. The bond market is even more efficient that than the stock market and it is mu...
by LH
Fri Mar 28, 2014 8:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How important are Int'l Bonds?
Replies: 44
Views: 3800

Re: How important are Int'l Bonds?

I sit on my company's investment committee. A few years ago, fighting the current of active management (and my fellow committee members), we transitioned to (almost) exclusively Vanguard offerings. Recently, an employee has taken an interest in our fund lineup by writing a letter to the investment ...
by LH
Fri Mar 28, 2014 6:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How important are Int'l Bonds?
Replies: 44
Views: 3800

Re: Is Small-Cap Value's 47.2% Turnover Rate Troubling?

Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF Annual Holdings Turnover 73.00% http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=BND+Profile Its all relative : ) I guess the answer to your question is no, given that I have not let the 73 percent Vanguard total bond market turnover bother me in any meaningful sense. It is kinda troub...
by LH
Fri Mar 28, 2014 6:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small-Cap Value's 47.2% Turnover Rate Troubling?
Replies: 11
Views: 1331

SCV: has the small or the value kinda fallen out of favor??

I get the sense that for French Fama factor math, with SCV tilt, that either the

1)small

or

2) value

Has kinda fallen from favor, or been retracted to some extent?

Can someone refute this or flesh this out?

Thanks,

LH
by LH
Thu Mar 27, 2014 1:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV: has the small or the value kinda fallen out of favor??
Replies: 28
Views: 2208

Re: Thinking of adding Small-Value and REIT

I would say add them both. 1) REITS get their value from ownership and rent of terra firm, a unique asset. Rent and Land ownership have represented diversification for 1000s of years. good correlation, and good return are both there, and expectantly will continue to be there. fits well with MPT 2) S...
by LH
Thu Mar 27, 2014 1:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking of adding Small-Value and REIT
Replies: 11
Views: 847

Re: forex tax treatment?

thanks for replies

LH
by LH
Thu Mar 27, 2014 1:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: forex tax treatment?
Replies: 6
Views: 393

Re: Why does a Boglehead move to an adviser at 1.25% AUM?

1)tax shelter and wills and trusts sure to some extent possibly.... but the 1.25 AUM fee will be hard to overcome. Lets look at that in terms of opportunity cost: 1A) the advisors 1.25 fee comes out to: 12,500 a year, every year assuming the minimum 2 comma 1 million AA. If its 2 million, then its 2...
by LH
Thu Mar 27, 2014 1:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does a Boglehead move to an adviser at 1.25% AUM?
Replies: 63
Views: 4241

Re: early retirement..... any program to roth conversion??

thanks everyone for fleshing that thought out.

Much appreciated,

LH
by LH
Wed Mar 26, 2014 6:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: early retirement..... any program to roth conversion??
Replies: 20
Views: 1234
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