Search found 5577 matches

by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 31, 2015 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 203
Views: 7760

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

Market price is generally bounded below by the book value. Historically P/B has never fallen below 1.5 and I believe there is a theoretical lower bound around 80% as that is typically the maximum haircut banks will apply to book value. I really don't know how to simplify this point any further I th...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 31, 2015 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 203
Views: 7760

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

Market price is generally bounded below by the book value. Historically P/B has never fallen below 1.5 and I believe there is a theoretical lower bound around 80% as that is typically the maximum haircut banks will apply to book value. I really don't know how to simplify this point any further I th...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 31, 2015 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 203
Views: 7760

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

Mathematically, after 100+ years, you will be capturing very close to 100% of the fundamental return. The reason is because you would have gotten all those earnings and those earnings would have been reinvested increasing the book value. Assuming price won't fall below say 80% of the book value you...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 31, 2015 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 203
Views: 7760

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

Stock PRICE may be a random walk but stock RETURN isn't because it is backed by fundamentals which are less random than mere speculative price movements. As I said, if price falls but earnings remain constant, your long run return will be unaffected. Stock price = stock return. If you buy a stock f...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 203
Views: 7760

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

Stock PRICE may be a random walk but stock RETURN isn't because it is backed by fundamentals which are less random than mere speculative price movements. As I said, if price falls but earnings remain constant, your long run return will be unaffected. Stock price = stock return. If you buy a stock f...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Frustrated with low raise
Replies: 62
Views: 4018

Re: Frustrated with low raise

2 points. 1.) Raises aren't supposed to be rewards and shouldn't be looked at as such. Your boss was likely given a budget and had no authority to go over that budget. I suspect this will account for 100% of the issue. 2.) "Job hopper" isn't really a pejorative term anymore. If you've been...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 30, 2015 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 203
Views: 7760

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

Stock returns are not a pure random sequence. There is a fundamental value which is quite stable and there will be reversion to the mean fundamental return. That's one popular theory, but it's not a certain one. The math is hard to dispute. If you have a stock yieldings earnings stream {E1, E2, E3,...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 30, 2015 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 203
Views: 7760

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

rca1824 wrote:
Stock returns are not a pure random sequence. There is a fundamental value which is quite stable and there will be reversion to the mean fundamental return.


That's one popular theory, but it's not a certain one.
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 30, 2015 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 203
Views: 7760

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

Exactly my assumption is a low e.g. 2% drawdown. Historical and monte carlo analysis actually shows that you get the highest minimum terminal portfolio value with high equities. The reason is because when your horizon is long enough the law of large numbers and reversion to the mean makes the equit...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 203
Views: 7760

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

They're very risky because the sequence of returns has such a large impact on terminal portfolio value. If you have enough money that you can afford to withdraw only 2% per year then sure, you'll probably be fine no matter what happens. But that's not a common case. If you HAVE to withdraw 5% and yo...
by KyleAAA
Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: wife got in wreck with Honda CRV - no collison coverage
Replies: 113
Views: 6114

Re: wife got in wreck with Honda CRV - no collison coverage

I'd be somewhat concerned about the safety of a near-totaled car that had been repaired, anyway. Especially if this wasn't the first accident it's been in. What about another used CRV? Maybe a base model.
by KyleAAA
Tue Jul 28, 2015 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is stock market so reactionary to news on daily basis?
Replies: 46
Views: 2745

Re: Why is stock market so reactionary to news on daily basis?

This is because exchange opening and closing times are artificial. There is really just one great big around the clock market for securities. Gross changes in sentiment that affect one local exchange will affect others. This is predictable enough that fund companies typically adjust their NAV prici...
by KyleAAA
Tue Jul 28, 2015 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is stock market so reactionary to news on daily basis?
Replies: 46
Views: 2745

Re: Why is stock market so reactionary to news on daily basis?

These are classic one-sided events. In other words, we only remember them as being events to begin with if they turn out one way and it biases our perception. If the job creation report missed the mark by 10,000 jobs but the market went up, it wouldn't register as an event and would go unnoticed. O...
by KyleAAA
Tue Jul 28, 2015 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is stock market so reactionary to news on daily basis?
Replies: 46
Views: 2745

Re: Why is stock market so reactionary to news on daily basis?

These are classic one-sided events. In other words, we only remember them as being events to begin with if they turn out one way and it biases our perception. If the job creation report missed the mark by 10,000 jobs but the market went up, it wouldn't register as an event and would go unnoticed. On...
by KyleAAA
Mon Jul 27, 2015 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Car - Cash or Finance?
Replies: 32
Views: 2330

Re: New Car - Cash or Finance?

1.9% is a bit high for a new car loan if you have good credit. I recently got 1.59% from Capital One and I got the distinct feeling I could have gotten a bit less if I'd pushed them for it. I bet I could've gotten 1.49%. I had a quote from my Credit Union for 1.7% so I told the finance guy I'd finan...
by KyleAAA
Mon Jul 27, 2015 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Truecar -- isn't this just a car buying scam?
Replies: 127
Views: 10521

Re: Truecar -- isn't this just a car buying scam?

Wrangler unlimited with hard top, automatic, rear limited slip. Msrp $30,530. Trucar $1500 off msrp. I ordered exactly this in my choice of color for $28,000 exactly from a non-trucar dealer. Trucar is a good starting point for someone who has no interest in negotiating. Otherwise, no. Waste of tim...
by KyleAAA
Sun Jul 26, 2015 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you look down on a co-worker for driving a beater?
Replies: 172
Views: 10444

Re: Would you look down on a co-worker for driving a beater?

A few probably will. Most won't.
by KyleAAA
Sat Jul 25, 2015 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Claiming diminished value on car accident
Replies: 14
Views: 1405

Re: Claiming diminished value on car accident

I've been rear-ended and claimed diminished value 3 separate times on the same car (Corollas are magnets for other cards, apparently). It was a trivially easy process. My insurance (Allstate) took care of everything, even appraising the value of the car after the accident to establish loss of value....
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 24, 2015 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying Stock....Where's the downfall
Replies: 4
Views: 685

Re: Buying Stock....Where's the downfall

The deal could fall through. Even if approved by regulators, it would be over a year before the deal is complete. There are a whole class of sophisticated merger arbitrageurs who play in this space. Probably not an area for beginners.
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 23, 2015 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you hate your vehicle infotainment system?
Replies: 73
Views: 5924

Re: Do you hate your vehicle infotainment system?

I love mine! 2015 Mazda 3. It has a touch-screen but it's disabled while the car is in motion. It has an iDrive like knob, but the software implementation is much better than BMW's. Extremely usable. Although some people complain about the bolted-on tablet look, you won't want to go back to an in-da...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 23, 2015 6:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: honda civic or Prius?
Replies: 86
Views: 7230

Re: honda civic or Prius?

I had a 2005 Corolla that averaged 40mpg city and highway and was bullet-proof. Bought it in 2004 for $14k and sold it a few months ago for $4500 with 140k miles (probably could've gotten $5k+ if I were patient) on it, so the things hold value pretty well. If you're in the market for a Civic you mig...
by KyleAAA
Tue Jul 21, 2015 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get a job as a software developer?
Replies: 39
Views: 3557

Re: How to get a job as a software developer?

Could you do one of those 12 week code bootcamp things? People are definitely getting hired out of those. I hear some are really bad, though, so you'd have to do your homework.
by KyleAAA
Tue Jul 21, 2015 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get a job as a software developer?
Replies: 39
Views: 3557

Re: How to get a job as a software developer?

You'd probably have more luck getting a job without a degree as a web developer. Or a front-end developer (mostly javascript). Learning Ruby on Rails and trying to get an internship would probably get you a full-time gig. Backend developers tend to be more computer sciencey in general and are more l...
by KyleAAA
Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: lock for $500 bike
Replies: 27
Views: 2464

Re: lock for $500 bike

I spent about $50 on a lock and park it in moderately-highish crime areas all the time. No problems so far. I use both an OnGuard U-lock and a cable for the front tire.
by KyleAAA
Mon Jul 20, 2015 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is this unethical behavior by employer (job question)
Replies: 14
Views: 1802

Re: Is this unethical behavior by employer (job question)

Without much detail to go on, I'd say it doesn't sound like anything unethical or outrageous is going on.
by KyleAAA
Mon Jul 20, 2015 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: honda civic or Prius?
Replies: 86
Views: 7230

Re: honda civic or Prius?

Go with a Mazda3 over either of those. It's the non-contest best car in the compact segment right now. Unless it's a Civic SI. Those are pretty fun.
by KyleAAA
Mon Jul 20, 2015 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: leverage and beating the market
Replies: 37
Views: 2510

Re: leverage and beating the market

The term "beat the market" is meaningless in this context. What matters is risk-adjusted returns. The S&P 500 wouldn't be an appropriate benchmark, so you wouldn't necessarily "beat the market" in this case. You might. Unless 2008 happens again. How much do you pay for your l...
by KyleAAA
Sat Jul 18, 2015 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "cold hands" effect - the latest investment anomaly
Replies: 14
Views: 1969

Re: The "cold hands" effect - the latest investment anomaly

This paper was published in 1993 with data ending in 1988. Am I missing something?
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 17, 2015 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Vanguard Customer
Replies: 20
Views: 2104

Re: New Vanguard Customer

Your allocation is reasonable albeit quite aggressive. Why did you choose the tax-managed small cap fund for a Roth IRA? The IRA is already tax-free.
by KyleAAA
Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are the more expensive bikes worth paying for?
Replies: 78
Views: 3914

Re: Are the more expensive bikes worth paying for?

Around the $450 range seems to be where quality jumps significantly. I would expect a $500 bike to last a looooong time with regular maintenance while I wouldn't necessarily expect the same from a $250 bike. More expensive bikes are definitely worth it if you ride a lot, but I wouldn't expect a huge...
by KyleAAA
Tue Jul 14, 2015 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Facebook's malware scan- legitimate or malware? Invasive?
Replies: 42
Views: 2713

Re: Facebook's malware scan- legitimate or malware? Invasive?

I would take this as a red flag to do my own malware check. This one is legitimate: http://housecall.trendmicro.com/ Is there reason to believe the ESET malware scanner is not legitimate? They appear to be very well regarded in the security world. Or is it just that Facebook has recommended them th...
by KyleAAA
Mon Jul 13, 2015 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Facebook's malware scan- legitimate or malware? Invasive?
Replies: 42
Views: 2713

Re: Facebook's malware scan- legitimate or malware? Invasive?

I would complain to FB and not let them do it. Their servers are in control of anything you post or upload and will scrutinize those things very carefully, as they should. But they do not need to look at your computer in order to keep other users "safe". It is none of their business. Thei...
by KyleAAA
Mon Jul 13, 2015 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it difficult to transfer website to different hosting company?
Replies: 25
Views: 1375

Re: Is it difficult to transfer website to different hosting company?

I own a web design firm. To answer your question: 1.) Find your new hosting company. Open an account. 2.) Download your current hosting files from Godaddy. Usually you do this with FTP or a file manager. If it's a site with simple HTML, CSS, and images, you don't have to worry about a database. If ...
by KyleAAA
Sun Jul 12, 2015 10:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Facebook's malware scan- legitimate or malware? Invasive?
Replies: 42
Views: 2713

Re: Facebook's malware scan- legitimate or malware? Invasive?

It's legitimate. If you make sure ALL the devices you use to access your account (including your phone) are malware-free, the message should go away. Facebook is trying to prevent people from spreading malware through their platform.
by KyleAAA
Sun Jul 12, 2015 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 22 years old want to do rental properties
Replies: 35
Views: 3698

Re: 22 years old want to do rental properties

Unless you have a lot of capital to start or a relatively high income from your day job you can funnel into the business, expecting to be able to retire in 8 years is more than a little unrealistic. Think more like 15-20 years. A lot of it depends on timing, though. If you'd started investing in rea...
by KyleAAA
Sat Jul 11, 2015 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 29, relatively high income, seriously considering early retirement
Replies: 42
Views: 7287

Re: 29, relatively high income, seriously considering early retirement

I'd say if you plan to retire in 15 years you'll probably need to save a lot more than the max that would fit in your 401k every year, anyway, so you'll probably have a decent chunk in a taxable account by then either way. But as mentioned above, it's quite easy to get access to a 401k without penal...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 10, 2015 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Learning Spanish
Replies: 62
Views: 5079

Re: Learning Spanish

Flash cards are the best way I've found to build vocabulary. Duolingo.com is free and a really good way to learn new words, as well. The downside is that it doesn't get very advanced, but you will learn a lot of common words.
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 10, 2015 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What antivirus software?
Replies: 47
Views: 3114

Re: What antivirus software?

Microsoft Security Essentials is free and excellent. Plus, it's built in.
by KyleAAA
Tue Jul 07, 2015 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to invest in OIL
Replies: 58
Views: 3713

Re: Oxymoron ?

sometimesinvestor wrote:No Taylor, timing the market means you think the time is right. Value investing is when you think the price is right


What's the difference?
by KyleAAA
Tue Jul 07, 2015 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard v.s. Betterment
Replies: 45
Views: 4969

Re: Vanguard v.s. Betterment

Vanguard is cheaper. Betterment's 0.15% fee, while very reasonable, does add up over time. Honestly, the fee is small enough that it wouldn't bother me too much if the hand-holding makes you feel better.
by KyleAAA
Tue Jul 07, 2015 1:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?
Replies: 92
Views: 13537

Re: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?

My wife and I are considering a move from the NYC area to the Phoenix or Raleigh areas for lifestyle and cost of living reasons. I'm a software engineer with 8 years' experience in financial firms making $150K salary and last year's bonus was $30K. Does anyone have an idea what the job market is li...
by KyleAAA
Tue Jul 07, 2015 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to invest in OIL
Replies: 58
Views: 3713

Re: Best way to invest in OIL

The best way to invest in oil is to invest in broad market indexes that happen to contain oil companies, although investing in Oil COMPANIES isn't really the same thing as investing in OIL. A few posters here will occasionally advocate investing a small (no more than 10% max) portion of your portfol...
by KyleAAA
Mon Jul 06, 2015 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to start a blog and claim the name?
Replies: 27
Views: 1302

Re: How to start a blog and claim the name?

All good advice above to go ahead and register the domain name and sign up for the various social media accounts. As far as blogging software, I vastly prefer Ghost to Wordpress these days. It's MUCH faster, more modern, and doesn't have any of the bloat that makes Wordpress so slow and such a pain ...
by KyleAAA
Sat Jul 04, 2015 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Average raises for promotions
Replies: 32
Views: 3682

Re: Average raises for promotions

For promotions specifically? I would say 15-20% sounds about right to me. I've never worked at a mega-corp, so maybe it's different. Average non-promotion COL adjustment would be more in the 3-5% range, although my last was quite a bit higher. 20% is the highest non-promotion raise I've ever gotten ...
by KyleAAA
Mon Jun 29, 2015 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Used, Reliable, Safe, Financially Sound cars
Replies: 56
Views: 6328

Re: Used, Reliable, Safe, Financially Sound cars

A Mazda 3 hatchbook would probably check all of your boxes. It's not an SUV, but in hatchback from has plenty of space to haul crap. A Honda Fit would carry even more stuff in hatchback form although you sacrifice some of the fun-to-drive. Honda CRV, Toyota Highlander, and Mazda CX-5 would be decent...
by KyleAAA
Mon Jun 29, 2015 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?
Replies: 92
Views: 13537

Re: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?

The odd thing about looking for software development work is that many companies won't hire you unless you have experience in the specific framework/language they're using. If you're a senior developer that has working knowledge of a few languages, it should be pretty easy to pick up something new ...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jun 26, 2015 7:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?
Replies: 92
Views: 13537

Re: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?

It's all fun and games until your SW dev job gets outsourced to Mumbai. It's amazing how many FTEs you can get over there for $250k USD. I also wouldn't take these NYC and SV salaries as indicative of the typical compensation level of a grade A SW developer at a Fortune 500 company across the USA. ...
by KyleAAA
Tue Jun 23, 2015 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?
Replies: 92
Views: 13537

Re: Tech jobs - is job-hopping the best way to get ahead?

Go into any company offices and see how many over 50 guys you can find doing coding. I bet you won't see many unless they are ones who hung around in the same job for decades. Unless they went on to management or some other line of work, they are probably not working. I see them at the gym during t...
by KyleAAA
Tue Jun 23, 2015 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MacBook Pro Worth the money?
Replies: 79
Views: 9018

Re: MacBook Pro Worth the money?

They are all pretty comparable given a similar feature set. Dell's and HP's aren't that much cheaper than Macs when you compare apples-to-apples hardware.
by KyleAAA
Tue Jun 23, 2015 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?
Replies: 218
Views: 23851

Re: What was the 2008 crash like in real time?

I made no changes in 2008 and didn't find it particularly stressful at all, but maybe that's because my portfolio wasn't all that large back then. Now? I would probably get a little worried - I'm not sure, really. I'm pretty confident I would stay the course, though.

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