Search found 5607 matches

by KyleAAA
Mon Aug 31, 2015 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tire rotation
Replies: 46
Views: 4089

Re: Tire rotation

So I just back from our second "free" oil change at the dealership on our Mazda 3 hatchback with 6300 miles. They recommended a tire rotation to the tune of $21.95 because the fronts are 9/32 and the rears at 10/32. He said the probably started at 10/32 or 11/32. What is Mazda putting on ...
by KyleAAA
Mon Aug 31, 2015 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tire rotation
Replies: 46
Views: 4089

Re: Tire rotation

Definitely rotate. And if you can find a decent tire for a new Mazda 3 for only $100, please let me know where!
by KyleAAA
Wed Aug 26, 2015 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cheaper car for someone who enjoys cars?
Replies: 63
Views: 8442

Re: Cheaper car for someone who enjoys cars?

This has all been extremely helpful. Thanks to everybody. Of all the options, I like the looks and the tech of the Mazda 3 or 6 (based purely on the Mazda website, not real life). Has anybody had experience with it in the snow? How will the s Grand Touring compare to the ride of the BMW 328i xDrive...
by KyleAAA
Wed Aug 26, 2015 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cheaper car for someone who enjoys cars?
Replies: 63
Views: 8442

Re: Cheaper car for someone who enjoys cars?

The new Mazdas fit the bill. The new Miata is supposed to be AMAZING but the 3 is also extremely fun to drive and a lot more practical. Or a used Infiniti. A CPO BMW might be worth a look for the driving dynamics if you can put up with the crappy interior. Audi would be a better choice if you want t...
by KyleAAA
Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was vanguard.com slow for anyone else this morning?
Replies: 37
Views: 2545

Re: Was vanguard.com slow for anyone else this morning?

To me, the bigger issue is Vanguard's commitment to maintaining their IT systems. If they're cutting costs and/or downplaying the importance of having reliable up to date IT service in terms of user access, then could they be cutting other IT corners in terms of record keeping and security? This is...
by KyleAAA
Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was vanguard.com slow for anyone else this morning?
Replies: 37
Views: 2545

Re: Was vanguard.com slow for anyone else this morning?

Man, you people are unforgiving. If your finances can't stand you not being able to log in for an hour or two, even during some major market turbulence, you probably aren't a very good boglehead. This is just another in the long list of risks of investing.
by KyleAAA
Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was vanguard.com slow for anyone else this morning?
Replies: 37
Views: 2545

Re: Vanguard website access issues this morning

Yeah lots of financial websites had problems this morning. There's another thread about it. And yes, it was volume related.
by KyleAAA
Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Defining "stay the course"
Replies: 23
Views: 2158

Re: Defining "stay the course"

The last two are the only ones I would definitely consider to be a violation of "stay the course." --Sell equities during a crash because, despite having had a good emergency fund, you really cannot afford to lose a penny more --Sell equities during a period of financial hardship, regardle...
by KyleAAA
Mon Aug 17, 2015 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey - Help Me Understand His Investing Strategy
Replies: 75
Views: 9278

Re: Dave Ramsey - Help Me Understand His Investing Strategy

Dave thinks bonds aren't substantially less volatile thank stocks (he's wrong) and since stocks outperform bonds over the long term, it's not smart to invest in bonds. But as we all know, bonds are actually a LOT less volatile than stocks so his reasoning doesn't hold up.
by KyleAAA
Sun Aug 16, 2015 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Family Sedan or Used Luxury Car
Replies: 46
Views: 4062

Re: New Family Sedan or Used Luxury Car

Buy a new Mazda 6 - better mpg, great handling. The 3 and 6 have been referred to as the "poor man's BMW" a few times. Japanese reliability and economy, with euro handling. Or get an Accord. Don't buy a used luxury vehicle and hope it goes 10 years without issues. The Mazda6 is a startlin...
by KyleAAA
Thu Aug 13, 2015 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Robo? [Betterment]
Replies: 14
Views: 1095

Re: Robo? [Betterment]

Most of the roboadvisors (including Betterment) tilt to small-value so if that particular slice and dice strategy out-performs a cap-weighted strategy by more than their 0.15% fee, then yes. 0.15% is small enough that even over the long term I wouldn't be TOO concerned with paying it. Of course, tha...
by KyleAAA
Thu Aug 13, 2015 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: figuring out employer match
Replies: 19
Views: 1104

Re: figuring out employer match

They'll contribute 50 cents for every dollar you contribute up to 6% of your salary. Basically, they'll contribute 3% of your salary.
by KyleAAA
Wed Aug 12, 2015 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 5 Finance Myths Millennials Should Avoid
Replies: 32
Views: 5574

Re: 5 Finance Myths Millennials Should Avoid

What exactly is irresponsible about the article? All she makes are generic statements about debt, student loans, etc. I don't see anything specifically WRONG with anything she says.
by KyleAAA
Wed Aug 12, 2015 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Family Sedan or Used Luxury Car
Replies: 46
Views: 4062

Re: NEW FAMILY SEDAN OR USED LUXURY CAR

I can't fathom a 10 year old Benz running for another 10 years without spending a small fortune on repairs. The estimate below of $2-3k per year is roughly in line with what you should expect. Maybe $1500 per year if you have a REALLY good indy mechanic. The new Honda will also be nicer, safer, and ...
by KyleAAA
Tue Aug 11, 2015 11:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help evaluate! Federal Government employment vs. Private sector
Replies: 49
Views: 3277

Re: Help evaluate! Federal Government employment vs. Private sector

Charlotte is 2 hours from the mountains and 3.5 hours form some really nice beaches. North Carolina is a great all-around state.
by KyleAAA
Tue Aug 11, 2015 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Solo Vacation
Replies: 15
Views: 1920

Re: Good Solo Vacation

Cancun for spring break, obviously.
by KyleAAA
Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the Three Fund Portfolio need a roboadviser?
Replies: 67
Views: 5585

Re: Does the Three Fund Portfolio need a roboadviser?

Most of the roboadvisors I'm aware of are slice and dicers, so I suppose if you're into that it's not a huge problem to pay an extra 0.15% for the service.
by KyleAAA
Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I crazy? Quitting my job.
Replies: 95
Views: 13629

Re: Am I crazy? Quitting my job.

People do this all the time. You can easily afford it. If you never saved another dime you'd probably still be able to retire comfortably.
by KyleAAA
Mon Aug 10, 2015 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So do the uber wealthy invest money the same way we do?
Replies: 95
Views: 10204

Re: So do the uber wealthy invest money the same way we do?

Probably not, because most billionaires don't know any more about investing than your average Jane/Joe. They just pay people to handle it. But who knows, some might. This is absolutely not true, as most billionaries come from the finance industry. And the remaining learn how to invest, maybe not in...
by KyleAAA
Sat Aug 08, 2015 9:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best used car for under 15k?
Replies: 40
Views: 3478

Re: Best used car for under 15k?

CPO programs are just another way for dealerships to extract money from hapless car buyers. The used Civic from Hertz still has two years/27,000 miles on its factory powertrain warranty. Buying the same car as a CPO car gives you four years/67,000 miles on the powertrain. That's not worthless, but ...
by KyleAAA
Sat Aug 08, 2015 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best used car for under 15k?
Replies: 40
Views: 3478

Re: Best used car for under 15k?

Accord/Camry or Civic/Corolla depending on how much room you want. I'd consider stretching a little bit and buying new. 2-3 years used is not worth saving a few thousand. They hold their value well. No car holds its value well. Cars lose about 50% of their value every five years. Holding its value ...
by KyleAAA
Sat Aug 08, 2015 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best used car for under 15k?
Replies: 40
Views: 3478

Re: Best used car for under 15k?

Accord/Camry or Civic/Corolla depending on how much room you want. I'd consider stretching a little bit and buying new. 2-3 years used is not worth saving a few thousand. They hold their value well. No car holds its value well. Cars lose about 50% of their value every five years. Holding its value ...
by KyleAAA
Fri Aug 07, 2015 4:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best used car for under 15k?
Replies: 40
Views: 3478

Re: Best used car for under 15k?

You could get a brand new Mazda 3 or Corolla for not much more than $15k. I'd probably go the new route at that price point. If you're going to go used on something like a Civic, you should go older than 3 years. They just retain their value far too well to be worth it at that age. With the Mazda yo...
by KyleAAA
Fri Aug 07, 2015 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So do the uber wealthy invest money the same way we do?
Replies: 95
Views: 10204

Re: So do the uber wealthy invest money the same way we do?

Probably not, because most billionaires don't know any more about investing than your average Jane/Joe. They just pay people to handle it. But who knows, some might. This is absolutely not true, as most billionaries come from the finance industry. And the remaining learn how to invest, maybe not in...
by KyleAAA
Thu Aug 06, 2015 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So do the uber wealthy invest money the same way we do?
Replies: 95
Views: 10204

Re: So do the uber wealthy invest money the same way we do?

Probably not, because most billionaires don't know any more about investing than your average Jane/Joe. They just pay people to handle it. But who knows, some might.
by KyleAAA
Tue Aug 04, 2015 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get a job as a software developer?
Replies: 54
Views: 5277

Re: How to get a job as a software developer?

If you list 7 years of experience developing software on your resume, it is not picky for me to expect you to be able to write an algorithm to reverse a string in less than an hour. If someone took an hour to write an algorithm to reverse a string, I would not hire them, I don't care if they have 7...
by KyleAAA
Tue Aug 04, 2015 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get a job as a software developer?
Replies: 54
Views: 5277

Re: How to get a job as a software developer?

There is a big surplus of software developers out there looking for jobs, including many coming in from overseas (India).The employers are *very* picky about who they hire, and mostly they hire contractors, and regular-employee jobs are very hard to get unless you are very special (right age, very ...
by KyleAAA
Tue Aug 04, 2015 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $13 Million Goal for Early Retirement (am I crazy?)
Replies: 128
Views: 13636

Re: $13 Million Goal for Early Retirement (am I crazy?)

$13 million is far more than you need. Why limit yourself to 1% of your portfolio? You could easily triple that withdrawal rate with practically no risk. $5 million is a more reasonable goal: $4 million at 3% = $120k per year, leaving you an extra million for the endowment.
by KyleAAA
Tue Aug 04, 2015 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get a job as a software developer?
Replies: 54
Views: 5277

Re: How to get a job as a software developer?

Hi, I don't know if you saw a recent article in the NY Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/29/technology/code-academy-as-career-game-changer.html?_r=0 I also heard it discussed on NPR. Apparently there is an really large demand at the moment for software developers in all kinds of companies to be...
by KyleAAA
Sun Aug 02, 2015 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: real estate in NYC
Replies: 38
Views: 3151

Re: real estate in NYC

Could you just move to Brooklyn? It's more interesting than most of Manhattan, anyway.
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 31, 2015 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 271
Views: 14652

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

Market price is generally bounded below by the book value. Historically P/B has never fallen below 1.5 and I believe there is a theoretical lower bound around 80% as that is typically the maximum haircut banks will apply to book value. I really don't know how to simplify this point any further I th...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 31, 2015 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 271
Views: 14652

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

Market price is generally bounded below by the book value. Historically P/B has never fallen below 1.5 and I believe there is a theoretical lower bound around 80% as that is typically the maximum haircut banks will apply to book value. I really don't know how to simplify this point any further I th...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 31, 2015 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 271
Views: 14652

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

Mathematically, after 100+ years, you will be capturing very close to 100% of the fundamental return. The reason is because you would have gotten all those earnings and those earnings would have been reinvested increasing the book value. Assuming price won't fall below say 80% of the book value you...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 31, 2015 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 271
Views: 14652

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

Stock PRICE may be a random walk but stock RETURN isn't because it is backed by fundamentals which are less random than mere speculative price movements. As I said, if price falls but earnings remain constant, your long run return will be unaffected. Stock price = stock return. If you buy a stock f...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 271
Views: 14652

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

Stock PRICE may be a random walk but stock RETURN isn't because it is backed by fundamentals which are less random than mere speculative price movements. As I said, if price falls but earnings remain constant, your long run return will be unaffected. Stock price = stock return. If you buy a stock f...
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 31, 2015 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Frustrated with low raise
Replies: 71
Views: 5356

Re: Frustrated with low raise

2 points. 1.) Raises aren't supposed to be rewards and shouldn't be looked at as such. Your boss was likely given a budget and had no authority to go over that budget. I suspect this will account for 100% of the issue. 2.) "Job hopper" isn't really a pejorative term anymore. If you've been...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 30, 2015 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 271
Views: 14652

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

Stock returns are not a pure random sequence. There is a fundamental value which is quite stable and there will be reversion to the mean fundamental return. That's one popular theory, but it's not a certain one. The math is hard to dispute. If you have a stock yieldings earnings stream {E1, E2, E3,...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 30, 2015 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 271
Views: 14652

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

rca1824 wrote:
Stock returns are not a pure random sequence. There is a fundamental value which is quite stable and there will be reversion to the mean fundamental return.


That's one popular theory, but it's not a certain one.
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 30, 2015 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 271
Views: 14652

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

Exactly my assumption is a low e.g. 2% drawdown. Historical and monte carlo analysis actually shows that you get the highest minimum terminal portfolio value with high equities. The reason is because when your horizon is long enough the law of large numbers and reversion to the mean makes the equit...
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 271
Views: 14652

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

They're very risky because the sequence of returns has such a large impact on terminal portfolio value. If you have enough money that you can afford to withdraw only 2% per year then sure, you'll probably be fine no matter what happens. But that's not a common case. If you HAVE to withdraw 5% and yo...
by KyleAAA
Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: wife got in wreck with Honda CRV - no collison coverage
Replies: 113
Views: 6783

Re: wife got in wreck with Honda CRV - no collison coverage

I'd be somewhat concerned about the safety of a near-totaled car that had been repaired, anyway. Especially if this wasn't the first accident it's been in. What about another used CRV? Maybe a base model.
by KyleAAA
Tue Jul 28, 2015 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is stock market so reactionary to news on daily basis?
Replies: 46
Views: 2974

Re: Why is stock market so reactionary to news on daily basis?

This is because exchange opening and closing times are artificial. There is really just one great big around the clock market for securities. Gross changes in sentiment that affect one local exchange will affect others. This is predictable enough that fund companies typically adjust their NAV prici...
by KyleAAA
Tue Jul 28, 2015 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is stock market so reactionary to news on daily basis?
Replies: 46
Views: 2974

Re: Why is stock market so reactionary to news on daily basis?

These are classic one-sided events. In other words, we only remember them as being events to begin with if they turn out one way and it biases our perception. If the job creation report missed the mark by 10,000 jobs but the market went up, it wouldn't register as an event and would go unnoticed. O...
by KyleAAA
Tue Jul 28, 2015 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is stock market so reactionary to news on daily basis?
Replies: 46
Views: 2974

Re: Why is stock market so reactionary to news on daily basis?

These are classic one-sided events. In other words, we only remember them as being events to begin with if they turn out one way and it biases our perception. If the job creation report missed the mark by 10,000 jobs but the market went up, it wouldn't register as an event and would go unnoticed. On...
by KyleAAA
Mon Jul 27, 2015 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Car - Cash or Finance?
Replies: 32
Views: 2421

Re: New Car - Cash or Finance?

1.9% is a bit high for a new car loan if you have good credit. I recently got 1.59% from Capital One and I got the distinct feeling I could have gotten a bit less if I'd pushed them for it. I bet I could've gotten 1.49%. I had a quote from my Credit Union for 1.7% so I told the finance guy I'd finan...
by KyleAAA
Mon Jul 27, 2015 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Truecar -- isn't this just a car buying scam?
Replies: 127
Views: 11099

Re: Truecar -- isn't this just a car buying scam?

Wrangler unlimited with hard top, automatic, rear limited slip. Msrp $30,530. Trucar $1500 off msrp. I ordered exactly this in my choice of color for $28,000 exactly from a non-trucar dealer. Trucar is a good starting point for someone who has no interest in negotiating. Otherwise, no. Waste of tim...
by KyleAAA
Sun Jul 26, 2015 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you look down on a co-worker for driving a beater?
Replies: 196
Views: 13723

Re: Would you look down on a co-worker for driving a beater?

A few probably will. Most won't.
by KyleAAA
Sat Jul 25, 2015 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Claiming diminished value on car accident
Replies: 19
Views: 2081

Re: Claiming diminished value on car accident

I've been rear-ended and claimed diminished value 3 separate times on the same car (Corollas are magnets for other cards, apparently). It was a trivially easy process. My insurance (Allstate) took care of everything, even appraising the value of the car after the accident to establish loss of value....
by KyleAAA
Fri Jul 24, 2015 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying Stock....Where's the downfall
Replies: 4
Views: 701

Re: Buying Stock....Where's the downfall

The deal could fall through. Even if approved by regulators, it would be over a year before the deal is complete. There are a whole class of sophisticated merger arbitrageurs who play in this space. Probably not an area for beginners.
by KyleAAA
Thu Jul 23, 2015 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you hate your vehicle infotainment system?
Replies: 73
Views: 6236

Re: Do you hate your vehicle infotainment system?

I love mine! 2015 Mazda 3. It has a touch-screen but it's disabled while the car is in motion. It has an iDrive like knob, but the software implementation is much better than BMW's. Extremely usable. Although some people complain about the bolted-on tablet look, you won't want to go back to an in-da...

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