Search found 5359 matches

by Kevin M
Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA Question for 4 accounts
Replies: 10
Views: 296

Re: AA Question for 4 accounts

And if the math is too hard, ruralavalon will do it for you, ;-), but ideally you would reformat your question using the Asking Portfolio Questions format (see link in signature line below).

Kevin
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA Question for 4 accounts
Replies: 10
Views: 296

Re: AA Question for 4 accounts

I will list the funds that are very similar to the Vanguard 3 funds that I am looking for. His 401k SPTN INEX 500 INST (FXSIX) ER- .05% SPTN US BOND IDX IS (FXSTX) ER- .07% Her 401k (VIEIX) VANGUARD EXT MARKET INDEX INST ER- .08% (VINIX) VANGUARD INST INDEX ER- .04% (VGTSX) VANGUARD TOTAL INTL STOC...
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investment property mortgage payoff question
Replies: 9
Views: 577

Re: Investment property mortgage payoff question

The other way to look at it is to compare a 17-year taxable investment grade, GNMA, CD, or treasury bond rate to your mortgage rate, and decide which is better. I think you can get 2.5% on a 7-10 year CD which is probably no worse than your AMT-adjusted mortgage rate. This is not the proper compari...
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investment property mortgage payoff question
Replies: 9
Views: 577

Re: Investment property mortgage payoff question

I have a mortgage for approximately $175,000 at 4%, with a remaining scheduled term of 17 years (P&I about $1181/month). <snip> I am now in the 33% federal tax bracket, but a likely AMT payer, and subject to the NIIT and a state tax rate of approximately 10%. <snip> perhaps the "sure thing...
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA Question for 4 accounts
Replies: 10
Views: 296

Re: AA Question for 4 accounts

The main emphasis on asset location is with respect to taxable and tax-advantaged accounts. Since all of your accounts are tax-advantaged, it doesn't matter much. Some people believe that assets with higher expected return (e.g., stocks) are better in Roth instead of traditional, but if one adjusts ...
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 29, 2015 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 146
Views: 4933

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

But your wealth didn't really melt away. It only appeared to do so on paper. Your stocks were still producing dividends. Yes, it did melt away. Just saying it didn't doesn't make it so. You are confusing net worth with income, and are clearly in the camp of optimists who believe that the future wil...
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 29, 2015 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirees: Social Security and Expenses
Replies: 61
Views: 3193

Re: Retirees: Social Security and Expenses

You're really asking us to divulge our income. Think about it. I agree. With an answer to this question plus other posts we've made, too much info would be out there. Well, I answered (kind of, since my SS is a survivor benefit, so perhaps much less of a clue), and I'll be interested for someone to...
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 29, 2015 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 146
Views: 4933

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

And the dividends don't always rain down. The Great Depression: A Diary , by Benjamin Roth, is full of references to families that relied on dividends from some local giant company like Youngstown Sheet and Tube, and suffered greatly when the company cut dividends, skipped dividends, or stopped pay...
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 29, 2015 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 146
Views: 4933

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

I just don't see why most people here have extreme bond-heavy allocations of only 30-60% equities. I don't get the impression that that's the case, but some of us have low equity allocations because of low need to take risk and low willingness to take risk. That's the case for me, with a 30% target...
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 29, 2015 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?
Replies: 146
Views: 4933

Re: Are equities really as risky as anyone thinks?

OP may not know that this topic has been discussed extensively in previous forum posts over the years. Try a search like this to find some of them: stocks risky long run site:bogleheads.org People seem to separate into two camps. One camp looks at historical results, especially for US stocks, and co...
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 29, 2015 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirees: Social Security and Expenses
Replies: 61
Views: 3193

Re: Retirees: Social Security and Expenses

I get a SS survivor benefit that covers an average 18.5% of my monthly bills YTD in 2015. This does not include taxes or large expenditures paid directly from my checking account. On a monthly basis Jan-Jul, it ranged from a low of about 11% to a high of about 29.5%. I probably won't start collectin...
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 29, 2015 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bit of gold?
Replies: 45
Views: 2404

Re: A bit of gold?

I saw a question or two about what was being used for gold in the mean variance charts, and I didn't see the answer. The charts were created with PortfolioVisualizer, and the asset class data sources are documented here: Frequently Asked Questions . For gold, the data sources are: KITCO returns (kit...
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 29, 2015 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Developed & Emerging Markets Indexes — Transition Details
Replies: 50
Views: 3726

Re: Vanguard's Developed & Emerging Markets Indexes — Transition Details

Agreed. The operative word in my post was reliably , the point being that a 20-year horizon is not long enough to smooth things out enough to be confident EM stocks will be competitive with US stocks. You need at least a 30 year horizon to be confident of being rewarded. I don't know that any perio...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 28, 2015 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Developed & Emerging Markets Indexes — Transition Details
Replies: 50
Views: 3726

Re: Vanguard's Developed & Emerging Markets Indexes — Transition Details

Evidentally, a 20-year horizon is not sufficient to reliably deliver competitive returns, though. $10,000 invested in EM stocks at the start of 1995 were worth $35,346 at the end of 2014. The same $10,000 invested in the US market over the same 20-year period rewarded the investor with $65,840. The...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 28, 2015 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond prices
Replies: 20
Views: 1476

Re: Bond prices

Currently I have a large cash position. <snip> I am starting with 35% equity mutual funds and 70% cash (33%) and short-/intermediate-term treasury funds (31%) (1% is missing I know.) Have you considered using CDs purchased directly from banks or credit unions instead of cash, and even instead of th...
by Kevin M
Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH in emerging markets
Replies: 4
Views: 344

Re: TLH in emerging markets

The recent threads on EM motivated me to take a look at my EM gains/losses. Most lots still are showing gains; for the few lots with losses, the losses aren't big enough to motivate me to TLH (a few hundred dollars), but maybe I will anyway if I get bored. In the account with my largest separate EM ...
by Kevin M
Mon Jul 27, 2015 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rewards Checking-An Easy Way to Earn Extra Money
Replies: 22
Views: 2671

Re: Rewards Checking-An Easy Way to Earn Extra Money

Good for you for spreading the word about RCAs on your blog. I published my blog post on RCAs in March 2012: Reward Checking Accounts . True that RCAs aren't worth the hassle for many, but I've grown very attached to them. Incorporating them into my purchase patterns has become second nature. Since ...
by Kevin M
Mon Jul 27, 2015 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How long until a $10,000 loss matters?
Replies: 39
Views: 3299

Re: How long until a $10,000 loss matters?

Yeah, +/-$10K is a typical, daily non-event for me. I remember being pretty freaked out in 2008/2009 when my portfolio was down by more than $1M, and that's with a very conservative AA. No down moves since then have bothered me, but we haven't really seen anything very significant. I retired in 2007...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 26, 2015 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 26
Views: 2131

Re: Help buying LEAPs

When I was trading options on an individual stock (hedging employee stock options), I usually placed my order midway between bid and ask, and it usually was quickly filled. I used Interactive Brokers, as the commissions were much lower than say Vanguard or Fidelity.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 26, 2015 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Transfer maturing Ally Bank IRA CD to new Synchrony Bank IRA CD
Replies: 5
Views: 951

Re: Transfer maturing Ally Bank IRA CD to new Synchrony Bank IRA CD

Trying to steer this away from becoming a thread on the quality of Synchrony Bank service ... anyone else have any experiences transferring out of a maturing IRA CD at one bank or credit union to a new IRA CD at another bank or credit union? I know we have some forum members who have been using dire...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 26, 2015 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Beneficiaries for taxable and non-taxable accounts
Replies: 10
Views: 992

Re: Beneficiaries for taxable and non-taxable accounts

Is there any benefit for my son (unmarried) have Living Trust, that I setup, as a beneficiary? Can you provide more specifics about what your goal is here? My main purpose for using a living trust is to avoid probate, which in California is time consuming and expensive. In some other states, the pr...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 25, 2015 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Beneficiaries for taxable and non-taxable accounts
Replies: 10
Views: 992

Re: Beneficiaries for taxable and non-taxable accounts

Typically there is no benefit to naming a living trust as beneficiary of a tax-advantaged account--it just complicates things. It still may be possible to stretch distributions for the inherited IRA(s), but there are restrictions, and it has to be set up correctly. Some attorneys recommend naming a ...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 25, 2015 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to Abandon the Larry Portfolio?
Replies: 12
Views: 2398

Re: Time to Abandon the Larry Portfolio?

The Larry Portfolio (LP) does not require a 30% stock allocation. That is just approximately the percentage he uses in various examples to compare to a 60% S&P500 Index / 40% short-term government bonds (or 5-year Treasuries) portfolio. The key element of the LP is to use low-cost, global small-...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 25, 2015 8:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying mortgage down to $1M - am I thinking about this correctly?
Replies: 15
Views: 1728

Re: Paying mortgage down to $1M - am I thinking about this correctly?

My logic is that that $116k gets a guaranteed 3.375% return which is pretty decent. Paying down anything further would get something like a 1.8% return when you account for losing the tax deduction, which is less than I would get in a CA Tax Exempt bond fund. To be clear, the CA Intermediate-Term T...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 25, 2015 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Transfer maturing Ally Bank IRA CD to new Synchrony Bank IRA CD
Replies: 5
Views: 951

Re: Transfer maturing Ally Bank IRA CD to new Synchrony Bank IRA CD

just fyi, I've had CDs with many different banks and never dealt with such an administratively inept bank as Synchrony. Unlike the other banks, Synchrony doesn't respond to emails and its telephone service are clueless. Interesting--not my experience at all. I documented a bit of my partial IRA tra...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fear Not the Inevitable Stock Market Correction
Replies: 19
Views: 3512

Re: Fear Not the Inevitable Stock Market Correction

Good post. And if we look beyond just the large-cap US stock market, this is even more important to think about. Emerging markets is down 17.4% (VWO) to 19.2% (EEM) from it's 52-week high, Vanguard REIT (VNQ) is down 12.6%, and Total International (VXUS) is down 9.5%. Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO) is d...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Transfer maturing Ally Bank IRA CD to new Synchrony Bank IRA CD
Replies: 5
Views: 951

Transfer maturing Ally Bank IRA CD to new Synchrony Bank IRA CD

I recently completed my first bank-to-bank IRA transfer from a maturing direct IRA CD into a new direct IRA CD at another bank, and everything went very smoothly. I published a blog post about it so that anyone else who might be considering doing something similar will know what to expect. This is p...
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 24, 2015 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique
Replies: 36
Views: 1548

Re: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique

Ergo, I will not be getting bond funds unless someone comes up with a brilliant interest-increase protected fund that would alleviate this problem. There is such a fixed-income alternative that limits your downside to about 1% if interest rates increase. It earns 2.25%, which is in the ballpark of ...
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 24, 2015 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Alert. Scam with callers posing as IRS agents...
Replies: 46
Views: 4181

Re: Alert. Scam with callers posing as IRS agents...

My daughter got a voicemail from one of these scammers, and texted me asking about it. Before I had replied, she had already determined that it was a scam.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 24, 2015 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: today or wait a week
Replies: 14
Views: 1729

Re: today or wait a week

One element of the Bogleheads investment philosophy (BIP) is to never try to time the market. Not all of us adhere to this 100%, but if there weren't reasonable consensus about this, it probably wouldn't be part of the BIP.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 24, 2015 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Budgeting For 2016 Medicare Part B Increase
Replies: 14
Views: 1473

Re: Budgeting For 2016 Medicare Part B Increase

Thanks for the alert, Ron. These paragraphs from the article helped clarify it for me: For about 70 percent of beneficiaries, premium increases cannot exceed the dollar amount of their Social Security cost-of-living adjustment. Because no COLA is currently expected for 2016, increased costs of outpa...
by Kevin M
Thu Jul 23, 2015 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to find Total Return on the Vanguard website
Replies: 20
Views: 1504

Re: How to find Total Return on the Vanguard website

But those are just the returns of the fund, not the fund as you've held it. What I've been interested in is if you bought $100 six months ago and it appreciated to $103 you would see a CAGR of 6%. To get this I have to enter all my transactions into Excel and use an IRR calculator to find "my&...
by Kevin M
Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)
Replies: 675
Views: 422524

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

leasters wrote:Anyone know where I can get monthly ST Treasury return data from 1972-1991?

You can pull Treasury yields from FRED (daily, monthly, weekly) and calculate the returns yourself: Treasury Constant Maturity - FRED - St. Louis Fed.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Thu Jul 23, 2015 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to find Total Return on the Vanguard website
Replies: 20
Views: 1504

Re: How to find Total Return on the Vanguard website

Do you mean for each fund, or your personal rate of return for the funds you own? The former is easy to find in multiple places. The latter includes your cash inflows and outflows, and I think you can find it on one of the Portfolio Watch pages. I'm sure someone will provide details once you clarify...
by Kevin M
Thu Jul 23, 2015 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6702

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

One thing that must be acknowledged is that in its short history, the fund has provided some diversification with respect to US Total Bond fund. YTD VTABX (international, admiral shares) had returned -0.83% as of 6/30, while VBTLX (US total bond, admiral shares) had returned -0.17%. One year returns...
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 22, 2015 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-Year TIPS Auction July 23 2015
Replies: 29
Views: 2771

Re: 10-Year TIPS Auction July 23 2015

With rates falling this week I don't think we will see coupon of 0.5% on the 10 Year Tips Auction tomorrow. As of today, Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates is showing 0.53% for the 10-year TIPS, which actually is two basis points higher than the rate I posted on July 17. It rose from 0.51 on Fri...
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 22, 2015 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6702

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

Why should the hedge return be expected to be 0%? Not working hard enough to understand it myself, but one reason is that Vanguard said so--at least about a year ago they did--as I quoted in this post earlier in the thread. So on the one hand they say that one should account for hedge return (which...
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 22, 2015 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6702

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

We are all learning about this asset class and the nature of the derivative (which I do not understand completely) is causing me to not invest in the fund at this time. To be fair, Vanguard's domestic bond funds also use derivatives, and I don't understand them completely either. Total Bond fund ha...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 21, 2015 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Customer Service - Fidelity 401K rollover to Schwab IRA
Replies: 26
Views: 1302

Re: Customer Service - Fidelity 401K rollover to Schwab IRA

It may be too late to do this now, but I wonder if it is easier to do the online rollover to a Fidelity Rollover IRA and then roll that IRA (in kind if you still had the investments) over to Schwab? This is what I did when I retired--kind of--and it was very easy. Rolling Fidelity 401k to Fidelity ...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 21, 2015 2:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rx Savings Card - Too Good to Be True?
Replies: 23
Views: 1720

Re: Rx Savings Card - Too Good to Be True?

I have a child on very, very expensive medication. There is a savings card offered by the manufacturer. I have used it for several years; they pay a maximum of $250 for our first order every year when we are satisfying our deductible.Thereafter, they pay the copay of $35 each month. The have never ...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 21, 2015 1:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Duration Considerations of the TSP G Fund
Replies: 26
Views: 2479

Re: Duration Considerations of the TSP G Fund

The net worth of people in this board is skewed to the higher end. An 80/20 retirement portfolio of $27500 could use one year of contribution to myRA ($5500) for the entire fixed income portion. That may be chimp change for many people on this board, but it's probably average in terms of retirement...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 21, 2015 1:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6702

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

I am interested in following the discussion about how the diversification might pay off anyway, but I haven't seen a convincing argument yet. I also don't own BNDX, but I think the diversification is probably for different term risk. If inflation rates diverge in different economic areas (let's say...
by Kevin M
Mon Jul 20, 2015 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Duration Considerations of the TSP G Fund
Replies: 26
Views: 2479

Re: Duration Considerations of the TSP G Fund

I'd say it's a good option regardless for the fixed income portion of the Roth because its current yield is comparable to Total Bond Market without downside risk. Regardless of what? Regardless of the fact that anyone not employed (e.g., retired) can't even use it? Regardless of the fact that the l...
by Kevin M
Mon Jul 20, 2015 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6702

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

Here's a Bogleheadish question: Why does it matter what the current yield is? Because yield to maturity, or for a bond fund, SEC yield, is widely used as an estimate of expected annualized return over the following 5-10 years, although as I've pointed out, it is not highly accurate. Anyway, a main ...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 19, 2015 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6702

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

This note from vanguard explains why the quoted yields are not apples to apples: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGHC.pdf Vanguard calls it "hedge return" and within that hedge return component (along with the currency fluctuations) are the forward points that international investors d...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 19, 2015 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Duration Considerations of the TSP G Fund
Replies: 26
Views: 2479

Re: Duration Considerations of the TSP G Fund

In terms of G fund access, you can get access by using myRA for your Roth. You can't transfer current accounts into it but you can use it for new Roth contributions. OK, but this is of very limited use. Can only be funded through employer with direct deposit, $5,500/year contribution limit ($6,500 ...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 19, 2015 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6702

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

I don't think the sec yield reflects the forward points you pick up from hedging back to the dollar. Generally speaking hedged bond yields are very close to domestic ones when you add in the forward points. Read up on international interest rate parity for more details It would be great if you coul...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 19, 2015 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Behind Vanguard's Surprising China Decision"
Replies: 22
Views: 4096

Re: "Behind Vanguard's Surprising China Decision"

(T)he broader FTSE Emerging Markets All-Cap China A Inclusion Index, which was launched in May anyone? :wink: I assume you mean take a new position in the fund. For the funds I own that are making these changes, I just go along on whatever ride the fund managers offer. Even if I didn't already own ...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 19, 2015 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Money Weighted Return query
Replies: 4
Views: 323

Re: Money Weighted Return query

Are you sure that's a YTD figure and not an IRR (internal rate of return) figure? If the latter, then the YTD is about half of that, which still is very good. Have you seen the "what are you up YTD" thread? Of course IRR (which I believe is what is meant by money weighted return) incorpora...

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