Search found 5346 matches

by Kevin M
Tue Jul 28, 2015 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Developed & Emerging Markets Indexes — Transition Details
Replies: 45
Views: 3155

Re: Vanguard's Developed & Emerging Markets Indexes — Transition Details

Evidentally, a 20-year horizon is not sufficient to reliably deliver competitive returns, though. $10,000 invested in EM stocks at the start of 1995 were worth $35,346 at the end of 2014. The same $10,000 invested in the US market over the same 20-year period rewarded the investor with $65,840. The...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 28, 2015 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond prices
Replies: 13
Views: 943

Re: Bond prices

Currently I have a large cash position. <snip> I am starting with 35% equity mutual funds and 70% cash (33%) and short-/intermediate-term treasury funds (31%) (1% is missing I know.) Have you considered using CDs purchased directly from banks or credit unions instead of cash, and even instead of th...
by Kevin M
Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH in emerging markets
Replies: 4
Views: 340

Re: TLH in emerging markets

The recent threads on EM motivated me to take a look at my EM gains/losses. Most lots still are showing gains; for the few lots with losses, the losses aren't big enough to motivate me to TLH (a few hundred dollars), but maybe I will anyway if I get bored. In the account with my largest separate EM ...
by Kevin M
Mon Jul 27, 2015 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rewards Checking-An Easy Way to Earn Extra Money
Replies: 22
Views: 2633

Re: Rewards Checking-An Easy Way to Earn Extra Money

Good for you for spreading the word about RCAs on your blog. I published my blog post on RCAs in March 2012: Reward Checking Accounts . True that RCAs aren't worth the hassle for many, but I've grown very attached to them. Incorporating them into my purchase patterns has become second nature. Since ...
by Kevin M
Mon Jul 27, 2015 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How long until a $10,000 loss matters?
Replies: 39
Views: 3275

Re: How long until a $10,000 loss matters?

Yeah, +/-$10K is a typical, daily non-event for me. I remember being pretty freaked out in 2008/2009 when my portfolio was down by more than $1M, and that's with a very conservative AA. No down moves since then have bothered me, but we haven't really seen anything very significant. I retired in 2007...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 26, 2015 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 26
Views: 2093

Re: Help buying LEAPs

When I was trading options on an individual stock (hedging employee stock options), I usually placed my order midway between bid and ask, and it usually was quickly filled. I used Interactive Brokers, as the commissions were much lower than say Vanguard or Fidelity.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 26, 2015 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Transfer maturing Ally Bank IRA CD to new Synchrony Bank IRA CD
Replies: 5
Views: 945

Re: Transfer maturing Ally Bank IRA CD to new Synchrony Bank IRA CD

Trying to steer this away from becoming a thread on the quality of Synchrony Bank service ... anyone else have any experiences transferring out of a maturing IRA CD at one bank or credit union to a new IRA CD at another bank or credit union? I know we have some forum members who have been using dire...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 26, 2015 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Beneficiaries for taxable and non-taxable accounts
Replies: 9
Views: 885

Re: Beneficiaries for taxable and non-taxable accounts

Is there any benefit for my son (unmarried) have Living Trust, that I setup, as a beneficiary? Can you provide more specifics about what your goal is here? My main purpose for using a living trust is to avoid probate, which in California is time consuming and expensive. In some other states, the pr...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 25, 2015 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Beneficiaries for taxable and non-taxable accounts
Replies: 9
Views: 885

Re: Beneficiaries for taxable and non-taxable accounts

Typically there is no benefit to naming a living trust as beneficiary of a tax-advantaged account--it just complicates things. It still may be possible to stretch distributions for the inherited IRA(s), but there are restrictions, and it has to be set up correctly. Some attorneys recommend naming a ...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 25, 2015 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to Abandon the Larry Portfolio?
Replies: 12
Views: 2385

Re: Time to Abandon the Larry Portfolio?

The Larry Portfolio (LP) does not require a 30% stock allocation. That is just approximately the percentage he uses in various examples to compare to a 60% S&P500 Index / 40% short-term government bonds (or 5-year Treasuries) portfolio. The key element of the LP is to use low-cost, global small-...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 25, 2015 8:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying mortgage down to $1M - am I thinking about this correctly?
Replies: 15
Views: 1714

Re: Paying mortgage down to $1M - am I thinking about this correctly?

My logic is that that $116k gets a guaranteed 3.375% return which is pretty decent. Paying down anything further would get something like a 1.8% return when you account for losing the tax deduction, which is less than I would get in a CA Tax Exempt bond fund. To be clear, the CA Intermediate-Term T...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 25, 2015 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Transfer maturing Ally Bank IRA CD to new Synchrony Bank IRA CD
Replies: 5
Views: 945

Re: Transfer maturing Ally Bank IRA CD to new Synchrony Bank IRA CD

just fyi, I've had CDs with many different banks and never dealt with such an administratively inept bank as Synchrony. Unlike the other banks, Synchrony doesn't respond to emails and its telephone service are clueless. Interesting--not my experience at all. I documented a bit of my partial IRA tra...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fear Not the Inevitable Stock Market Correction
Replies: 19
Views: 3496

Re: Fear Not the Inevitable Stock Market Correction

Good post. And if we look beyond just the large-cap US stock market, this is even more important to think about. Emerging markets is down 17.4% (VWO) to 19.2% (EEM) from it's 52-week high, Vanguard REIT (VNQ) is down 12.6%, and Total International (VXUS) is down 9.5%. Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO) is d...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 25, 2015 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Transfer maturing Ally Bank IRA CD to new Synchrony Bank IRA CD
Replies: 5
Views: 945

Transfer maturing Ally Bank IRA CD to new Synchrony Bank IRA CD

I recently completed my first bank-to-bank IRA transfer from a maturing direct IRA CD into a new direct IRA CD at another bank, and everything went very smoothly. I published a blog post about it so that anyone else who might be considering doing something similar will know what to expect. This is p...
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 24, 2015 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique
Replies: 33
Views: 1406

Re: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique

Ergo, I will not be getting bond funds unless someone comes up with a brilliant interest-increase protected fund that would alleviate this problem. There is such a fixed-income alternative that limits your downside to about 1% if interest rates increase. It earns 2.25%, which is in the ballpark of ...
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 24, 2015 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Alert. Scam with callers posing as IRS agents...
Replies: 46
Views: 4176

Re: Alert. Scam with callers posing as IRS agents...

My daughter got a voicemail from one of these scammers, and texted me asking about it. Before I had replied, she had already determined that it was a scam.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 24, 2015 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: today or wait a week
Replies: 14
Views: 1694

Re: today or wait a week

One element of the Bogleheads investment philosophy (BIP) is to never try to time the market. Not all of us adhere to this 100%, but if there weren't reasonable consensus about this, it probably wouldn't be part of the BIP.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 24, 2015 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Budgeting For 2016 Medicare Part B Increase
Replies: 14
Views: 1461

Re: Budgeting For 2016 Medicare Part B Increase

Thanks for the alert, Ron. These paragraphs from the article helped clarify it for me: For about 70 percent of beneficiaries, premium increases cannot exceed the dollar amount of their Social Security cost-of-living adjustment. Because no COLA is currently expected for 2016, increased costs of outpa...
by Kevin M
Thu Jul 23, 2015 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to find Total Return on the Vanguard website
Replies: 20
Views: 1358

Re: How to find Total Return on the Vanguard website

But those are just the returns of the fund, not the fund as you've held it. What I've been interested in is if you bought $100 six months ago and it appreciated to $103 you would see a CAGR of 6%. To get this I have to enter all my transactions into Excel and use an IRR calculator to find "my&...
by Kevin M
Thu Jul 23, 2015 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)
Replies: 674
Views: 422075

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

leasters wrote:Anyone know where I can get monthly ST Treasury return data from 1972-1991?

You can pull Treasury yields from FRED (daily, monthly, weekly) and calculate the returns yourself: Treasury Constant Maturity - FRED - St. Louis Fed.

Kevin
by Kevin M
Thu Jul 23, 2015 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to find Total Return on the Vanguard website
Replies: 20
Views: 1358

Re: How to find Total Return on the Vanguard website

Do you mean for each fund, or your personal rate of return for the funds you own? The former is easy to find in multiple places. The latter includes your cash inflows and outflows, and I think you can find it on one of the Portfolio Watch pages. I'm sure someone will provide details once you clarify...
by Kevin M
Thu Jul 23, 2015 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6670

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

One thing that must be acknowledged is that in its short history, the fund has provided some diversification with respect to US Total Bond fund. YTD VTABX (international, admiral shares) had returned -0.83% as of 6/30, while VBTLX (US total bond, admiral shares) had returned -0.17%. One year returns...
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 22, 2015 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-Year TIPS Auction July 23 2015
Replies: 29
Views: 2766

Re: 10-Year TIPS Auction July 23 2015

With rates falling this week I don't think we will see coupon of 0.5% on the 10 Year Tips Auction tomorrow. As of today, Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates is showing 0.53% for the 10-year TIPS, which actually is two basis points higher than the rate I posted on July 17. It rose from 0.51 on Fri...
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 22, 2015 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6670

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

Why should the hedge return be expected to be 0%? Not working hard enough to understand it myself, but one reason is that Vanguard said so--at least about a year ago they did--as I quoted in this post earlier in the thread. So on the one hand they say that one should account for hedge return (which...
by Kevin M
Wed Jul 22, 2015 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6670

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

We are all learning about this asset class and the nature of the derivative (which I do not understand completely) is causing me to not invest in the fund at this time. To be fair, Vanguard's domestic bond funds also use derivatives, and I don't understand them completely either. Total Bond fund ha...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 21, 2015 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Customer Service - Fidelity 401K rollover to Schwab IRA
Replies: 26
Views: 1284

Re: Customer Service - Fidelity 401K rollover to Schwab IRA

It may be too late to do this now, but I wonder if it is easier to do the online rollover to a Fidelity Rollover IRA and then roll that IRA (in kind if you still had the investments) over to Schwab? This is what I did when I retired--kind of--and it was very easy. Rolling Fidelity 401k to Fidelity ...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 21, 2015 2:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rx Savings Card - Too Good to Be True?
Replies: 23
Views: 1717

Re: Rx Savings Card - Too Good to Be True?

I have a child on very, very expensive medication. There is a savings card offered by the manufacturer. I have used it for several years; they pay a maximum of $250 for our first order every year when we are satisfying our deductible.Thereafter, they pay the copay of $35 each month. The have never ...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 21, 2015 1:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Duration Considerations of the TSP G Fund
Replies: 26
Views: 2473

Re: Duration Considerations of the TSP G Fund

The net worth of people in this board is skewed to the higher end. An 80/20 retirement portfolio of $27500 could use one year of contribution to myRA ($5500) for the entire fixed income portion. That may be chimp change for many people on this board, but it's probably average in terms of retirement...
by Kevin M
Tue Jul 21, 2015 1:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6670

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

I am interested in following the discussion about how the diversification might pay off anyway, but I haven't seen a convincing argument yet. I also don't own BNDX, but I think the diversification is probably for different term risk. If inflation rates diverge in different economic areas (let's say...
by Kevin M
Mon Jul 20, 2015 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Duration Considerations of the TSP G Fund
Replies: 26
Views: 2473

Re: Duration Considerations of the TSP G Fund

I'd say it's a good option regardless for the fixed income portion of the Roth because its current yield is comparable to Total Bond Market without downside risk. Regardless of what? Regardless of the fact that anyone not employed (e.g., retired) can't even use it? Regardless of the fact that the l...
by Kevin M
Mon Jul 20, 2015 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6670

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

Here's a Bogleheadish question: Why does it matter what the current yield is? Because yield to maturity, or for a bond fund, SEC yield, is widely used as an estimate of expected annualized return over the following 5-10 years, although as I've pointed out, it is not highly accurate. Anyway, a main ...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 19, 2015 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6670

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

This note from vanguard explains why the quoted yields are not apples to apples: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGHC.pdf Vanguard calls it "hedge return" and within that hedge return component (along with the currency fluctuations) are the forward points that international investors d...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 19, 2015 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Duration Considerations of the TSP G Fund
Replies: 26
Views: 2473

Re: Duration Considerations of the TSP G Fund

In terms of G fund access, you can get access by using myRA for your Roth. You can't transfer current accounts into it but you can use it for new Roth contributions. OK, but this is of very limited use. Can only be funded through employer with direct deposit, $5,500/year contribution limit ($6,500 ...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 19, 2015 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6670

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

I don't think the sec yield reflects the forward points you pick up from hedging back to the dollar. Generally speaking hedged bond yields are very close to domestic ones when you add in the forward points. Read up on international interest rate parity for more details It would be great if you coul...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 19, 2015 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Behind Vanguard's Surprising China Decision"
Replies: 22
Views: 4088

Re: "Behind Vanguard's Surprising China Decision"

(T)he broader FTSE Emerging Markets All-Cap China A Inclusion Index, which was launched in May anyone? :wink: I assume you mean take a new position in the fund. For the funds I own that are making these changes, I just go along on whatever ride the fund managers offer. Even if I didn't already own ...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 19, 2015 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Money Weighted Return query
Replies: 4
Views: 323

Re: Money Weighted Return query

Are you sure that's a YTD figure and not an IRR (internal rate of return) figure? If the latter, then the YTD is about half of that, which still is very good. Have you seen the "what are you up YTD" thread? Of course IRR (which I believe is what is meant by money weighted return) incorpora...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 19, 2015 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Duration Considerations of the TSP G Fund
Replies: 26
Views: 2473

Re: Duration Considerations of the TSP G Fund

I've posted many times about doing something similar by combining good direct CDs with low early withdrawal penalties and bond funds with at least intermediate-term maturity, and long-term maturity if one wants more term risk for less dollars. A good direct CD now earns 2.25%, so even higher than G ...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 19, 2015 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco Prescription Glasses
Replies: 17
Views: 1379

Re: Costco Prescription Glasses

I've used them for the last couple of glasses prescriptions, and have been satisfied. Now that I'm on a high-deductible health plan, I also used them for the eye exam and prescription last time, as it was much less expensive than going to the local clinic I had been using when I just had to pay the ...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 19, 2015 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Add spouse name to accounts
Replies: 3
Views: 597

Re: Add spouse name to accounts

I haven't paid much attention to this for some years, but I think for taxable accounts not in a living trust in California, you probably want to use community property with right of survivorship (CPWROS). Joint tenancy also allows easy transfer upon death without probate, but you could sacrifice the...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 19, 2015 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.
Replies: 102
Views: 6670

Re: Why invest in BNDX's when 30 day SEC yield = 0.76%.

I don't get it either. The mantra from Vanguard is that the diversification is likely to pay off long term, but it's hard to understand how the diversification is worth earning less than half of the yield (lower expected return) for longer duration (more risk), compared to say Total Bond Market. I t...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 19, 2015 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rx Savings Card - Too Good to Be True?
Replies: 23
Views: 1717

Re: Rx Savings Card - Too Good to Be True?

I don't know about this specifically, but I've been using GoodRx for a few years to buy prescription meds at significant discounts. I just go to their web site and search for the best price, either at a pharmacy near me or at an online pharmacy. For local pharmacies, I print out the coupon and take ...
by Kevin M
Sun Jul 19, 2015 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Move current investments into Roth IRA
Replies: 9
Views: 711

Re: Move current investments into Roth IRA

This seems to make sense on paper, but I just wanted to check to see if this is something other people did as well. Yes, we do something similar for my niece, whose investments I help manage, and I've helped my adult children and others do something similar. It can take different forms, but the bas...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 18, 2015 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Move current investments into Roth IRA
Replies: 9
Views: 711

Re: Move current investments into Roth IRA

At my current income level, I won't be able to contribute the maximum this year or next. However, I do have assets in an investment account and I'm wondering if it makes sense to slowly transfer some of them into the Roth so I am hitting my maximum each year. I read this as you are not earning enou...
by Kevin M
Sat Jul 18, 2015 1:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?
Replies: 66
Views: 5904

Re: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?

The 30 year T-Bond closed the week at 3.08%, and the 10 year T-Bond at 2.34%. They seem appropriately priced to me given inflation expectations. If I had an easy way, and a non-risk way, of shorting a whole lot of 20- or 30-year bonds, I’d do it <snip> I think that bonds are very overvalued . Reaso...
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 17, 2015 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10-Year TIPS Auction July 23 2015
Replies: 29
Views: 2766

Re: 10-Year TIPS Auction July 23 2015

The 10-year "Real Constant Maturity Treasury rate (R-CMT) is 0.51%, so 0.5% seems quite reasonable. Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates Constant maturity treasury (CMT) rate now is 2.34%, so 10-year breakeven inflation rate is 2.34 - 0.51 = 1.83%. If inflation is higher than that, the TIPS wi...
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 17, 2015 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: We are in our fifties and I am afraid it is too late
Replies: 13
Views: 3369

Re: We are in our fifties and I am afraid it is too late

$100K probably is not a lot of money in terms of making a huge difference in your quality of life long-term if you expect to live another 20 to 30 years, so I wouldn't worry too much about it. Five percent is an excellent guaranteed return, so I definitely would seriously consider using at least som...
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 17, 2015 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Percentages of stocks/bonds
Replies: 7
Views: 718

Re: Percentages of stocks/bonds

The TR funds certainly are much riskier than something like an "age in bonds" rule of thumb would suggest (assuming you follow the Vanguard guidelines for which fund to use based on age or years to retirement). For a young investor without much financial capital, they probably are fine. I ...
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 17, 2015 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any reason to hold short-term bonds with a long-term horizon?
Replies: 29
Views: 2501

Re: Any reason to hold short-term bonds with a long-term horizon?

rca1284, one of your heroes, Warren Buffet, thinks long-term bonds are a horrible investment now. He has said he would short them if there were an effective way to do it in large enough quantities for it to make sense for Berkshire Hathaway. BH's fixed income holdings are mostly short-term Treasurie...
by Kevin M
Fri Jul 17, 2015 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you don't care about volatility, are long-term bonds better than total bond?
Replies: 66
Views: 5904

Re: If you don't care about volatility, is long-term bonds better than total bond?

Most most people do care about volatility. Of course Buffet would be 100% equities making the bond discussion moot. Ah, not true! Buffet (Berkshire Hathaway) also holds cash (short-term Treasuries)--the shortest-term bonds of all. And for the inheritance he will leave his wife, 90% S&P 500 and ...

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