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Re: AliBaba

yes I did all right on my 1000 shares of BABA, just as expected, sold 50% made 3K, holding on to 50% little greedy with my play money, if I make another 3K I will sell another 50% of the 50% remaining, and wait for another opportunity, if it was only so easy and so quick to make so much in Vanguard...
by Ketawa
Sun Sep 21, 2014 12:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AliBaba
Replies: 89
Views: 5236

Re: Premiums: Size, Value, Beta, Momentum

It should also be noted that the SmB (size) premium has not exited since FF published their 1993 research paper. Don't think this is quite true - if I understand what you are saying. This is what I get. 1993-2013 annualized return Vanguard 500 = 9.16% DFA US Microcap = 12.42% A 3.26% annualized ret...
by Ketawa
Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Premiums: Size, Value, Beta, Momentum
Replies: 40
Views: 2733

Re: Hamilton watches, worth the money?

I have had a Hamilton Khaki King automatic watch, H64455533, for a few years. It was $370 when I purchased it. It is a more casual style and not something I would wear with anything more formal than chinos or jeans. It is a little fast and probably gains about 1 minute per week. I have been pleased ...
by Ketawa
Mon Sep 15, 2014 10:01 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hamilton watches, worth the money?
Replies: 215
Views: 7563

Re: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversificat

This isn't true. Look up the returns of the S&P indexes since the inception date of Vanguard's SCV and SCG funds. Both funds are closer to blended funds than true value and true growth funds. That means either is fine if you're only trying to capture the small premium while avoiding the "b...
by Ketawa
Fri Sep 12, 2014 10:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversification
Replies: 153
Views: 8899

Re: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversificat

This doesn't demonstrate that the value premium has died, more that it demonstrates using a single LCV fund is not a good way to pursue factor investing. I'll also use Portfolio Visualizer since it should be sufficient for this discussion. It should be noted that calling it a large value fund is re...
by Ketawa
Fri Sep 12, 2014 5:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversification
Replies: 153
Views: 8899

Re: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversificat

And as a follow-up, using PV I looked at the factor loadings of Vanguard's LCV fund (VIVAX) vs. TSM and found that VIVAX loads 0.31 on value, while TSM loads 0.02, for the period 1993-2013 (longest available for VIVAX). Yet the returns of VIVAX and TSM were virtually the same over this 21 years (CA...
by Ketawa
Fri Sep 12, 2014 1:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversification
Replies: 153
Views: 8899

Re: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversificat

Take all regressions of the Vanguard value/growth funds with a grain of salt. They used to follow S&P indexes, then switched to MSCI indexes. And now they're on CRSP indexes! I'm speaking generally here because I haven't looked at all these numbers recently, but the assorted value indexes from b...
by Ketawa
Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let me get this straight about SCV & factor diversification
Replies: 153
Views: 8899

Re: What Movie Have You [Recently] Watched?

My favorite movies that I have seen in 2014 came out in 2013. Prisoners Short Term 12 Drinking Buddies 12 Years a Slave The big blockbusters have generally been very good this summer: Guardians of the Galaxy , X-Men: Days of Future Past , new Captain America , Godzilla , Edge of Tomorrow .
by Ketawa
Tue Sep 02, 2014 10:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 105
Views: 4406

Re: The Larry Portfolio - For Tilters and S&D'ers Only

I have a Larry Portfolio in the sense that I tilt as much as possible while being constricted to the TSP for some of my equities. 27 years old, 80/20 portfolio, so I answered X = -10. My main holdings in my IRA are: QICLX: AQR International Core Equity Fund QEELX: AQR Emerging Core Equity Fund PDN: ...
by Ketawa
Mon Aug 25, 2014 3:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Larry Portfolio - For Tilters and S&D'ers Only
Replies: 27
Views: 3217

Re: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?

But you aren't investing in commodities, you are investing in commodities futures. They behave differently. Plus, even pure commodities like gold don't have a negative expected real return, they have a zero expected real return. 1. Why would you invest in something that has a zero expected real ret...
by Ketawa
Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a Commodities Fund be a Long-Term Investment?
Replies: 45
Views: 2805

Re: Moved from VBR to PXSV in tax Deferred this week

How often do you need to transact more than $25k at once? There's typically at least 1000 shares available at the bid or ask with a 5 cent spread, about 20 bp. Transaction fees add a whopping 3 bp to that. Whoop-de-doo.
by Ketawa
Thu Aug 21, 2014 2:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moved from VBR to PXSV in tax Deferred this week
Replies: 16
Views: 1184

Re: Vanguard International ETF's

in_reality wrote:I think SCHC (Schwab international small cap (0.19%ER) could also be paired with VEA to get total market (minus emerging). There must be a Vanguard fund though.


There isn't a Vanguard fund that is a perfect complement.
by Ketawa
Thu Aug 21, 2014 10:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard International ETF's
Replies: 7
Views: 504

Re: Long term bond tilting?

Ketawa: I wouldn't do it. The free lunch is too great. We're talking 2%+ above short term yields; the market did consider the availability of 3% long bonds when setting those. Whatever the chemistry between stocks and long bonds (which I'm normally a fan of), it's not worth 2%. Also, I'm jealous. I...
by Ketawa
Tue Aug 19, 2014 7:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term bond tilting?
Replies: 14
Views: 1273

Re: Long term bond tilting?

There is actually one free lunch in bonds, and it's the G Fund. So here is an interesting question: is adding duration by mixing the G Fund with long term Treasuries worth the potential correlation benefits? Right now, my fixed income is 100% G Fund. 0 duration, 2.375% yield. Let's say I wanted to e...
by Ketawa
Tue Aug 19, 2014 10:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term bond tilting?
Replies: 14
Views: 1273

Re: Hw many credit cards to own?

Eligible for free FICO at PENFED....3 ways....couldn't find how using VISA: "PenFed partnered with FICO to develop and integrate the FICO® Score into its online banking service. Successfully launching the feature on July 12, 2014, the benefit is now available to PenFed members who have active ...
by Ketawa
Tue Aug 19, 2014 10:03 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hw many credit cards to own?
Replies: 121
Views: 22366

Re: Berkshire Hathaway A's about to hit $200k/pps

To GTMN: Yes, yes and yes. Think hard about what you're putting in and getting out. The pending Alibaba IPO, a screw job if there even was one, is a perfect example of what I'm talking about. The markets are good for capital formation and wonderful for investment bankers, brokers, and start-up inve...
by Ketawa
Sat Aug 16, 2014 7:10 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway A's about to hit $200k/pps
Replies: 42
Views: 2733

Re: USAA Changes effective 6 Aug 14

Sheepdog wrote:You aren't the only one who is having problems with USAA today. See USAA consumer complaints: http://www.consumeraffairs.com/insurance/usaa_auto.html


Every auto insurance company attracts complaints on sites like this. They all have a 1* rating.
by Ketawa
Sat Aug 16, 2014 10:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: USAA Changes effective 6 Aug 14
Replies: 28
Views: 3907

Re: How to ensure military members don't get ripped off

1. Limited investment menu. TSP offer only 3 index funds, an international fund and the G fund which invests solely in US tresasuries. Only other options are 5 target funds. About $120B or 40% of the TSP is invested in the G fund which had a compound return of 1.89% in 2013 and will be lower this y...
by Ketawa
Wed Aug 13, 2014 4:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to ensure military members don't get ripped off
Replies: 71
Views: 4426

Re: Can the reverse of market timing work?

So let's say instead that the retired person in question has a target 50-50 AA. So let's say we're in March 2009 when the stock market hit a low, and your AA has now drifted to 25% stock, 75% bond because you didn't rebalance anything and stocks had fallen 50% (let's assume bonds broke even since t...
by Ketawa
Sun Aug 10, 2014 12:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the reverse of market timing work?
Replies: 18
Views: 2097

Re: Poll: What's the name of Argentina's stock market?

Interesting that Vanguard Total International Stock Market would include even one Argentina stock. Argentina isn't even listed as a country included in the FTSE Global All Cap ex US Index. http://www.ftse.com/analytics/factsheets/Home/Search# I don't think it's a case where the fact sheet leaves it ...
by Ketawa
Sat Aug 09, 2014 9:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: What's the name of Argentina's stock market?
Replies: 37
Views: 2452

Re: Going 60+% international? (US resident)

Which is it: you want to replicate global weightings, or you want to chase valuations? If the former, 50/50 is the global weight: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=3141&FundIntExt=INT#tab=2 If the latter, good luck. North America includes Canada and Mexico, which is part of...
by Ketawa
Sat Aug 09, 2014 4:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going 60+% international? (US resident)
Replies: 83
Views: 6022

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

manwithnoname wrote:The reason your theory doesn't work is that you will never know when the market has hit bottom so its impossible to time when to buy sufficient equities to generate income needed for expenses.


This is not an accurate representation of the argument against dividend investing.
by Ketawa
Fri Aug 08, 2014 10:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11264

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

Have you heard of the BTFD strategy? (Buy the F--ing Dip!) That has made ex-div dates the most popular day of the year for buying some securities. It's almost comical how people try to buy low on ex-div day and they can't because the price has already rocketed up due to high demand! But if this eff...
by Ketawa
Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11264

Re: More Tax Loss Harvesting Questions

A couple of questions about Tax Loss Harvesting. 1. I have several thousand dollars of realized long term capital gains that I would like to offset through TLH before the end of the year. The only unrealized capital losses I have to TLH are short term (and won’t be long by the end of the year). Doe...
by Ketawa
Fri Aug 08, 2014 8:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: More Tax Loss Harvesting Questions
Replies: 11
Views: 751

Re: Tell Vanguard they need 2 factor authentication

Those companies have the luxury of running large profits in other areas to make up for the costs of areas like this. Vanguard operates on a zero profit basis, and is mutually held. E-Trade can spend more money and charge someone else, or take it out of profits. Vanguard spends more money and only h...
by Ketawa
Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tell Vanguard they need 2 factor authentication
Replies: 52
Views: 2442

Re: Tell Vanguard they need 2 factor authentication

toto238 wrote:Disagree. I don't want to pay higher expense ratios on my investments for extra security features that will cause more problems than they will fix.


E*Trade and Fidelity both have two-factor authentication. Somehow, they manage to offer free brokerage accounts.
by Ketawa
Fri Aug 08, 2014 7:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tell Vanguard they need 2 factor authentication
Replies: 52
Views: 2442

Re: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone

Who cares if "accounting if fiction", or if cash dividends are an "honest number"? This has nothing to do with whether dividends have any special sauce beyond being a component of total return. When a company pays a dividend, the market expects its stock price to drop by the amou...
by Ketawa
Fri Aug 08, 2014 6:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Strategy Ain't For Everyone
Replies: 149
Views: 11264

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The news guys are falling all over themselves this AM predicting another bad day in the market, something like "all predictors this AM are pointing to another bad day in the market" They do have a 50/50 chance of being right, about as good of odds as the weather guys :wink: I'm always ama...
by Ketawa
Wed Aug 06, 2014 9:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 802
Views: 136496

Re: not all small value funds are created equal

I don't know much about nuances between the different value metrics. It seems like P/E gets all the attention due to things like Shiller PE10 (not that they're the same, but an association with it is formed in investors' minds). P/E is not the only value metric. For companies with negative earnings,...
by Ketawa
Tue Aug 05, 2014 9:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: not all small value funds are created equal
Replies: 48
Views: 3618

Re: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns

If there's any fund that proves my point about FF data having little in common with reality, it's surely, surely DFLVX. For the first 15 years of the fund's life, while according to the FF data value outperformed something like 3% per year, this fund compiled the following record: Staring at this c...
by Ketawa
Tue Aug 05, 2014 1:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns
Replies: 78
Views: 4844

Re: not all small value funds are created equal

Larry and others, for someone considering three small value funds, VBR vs. IJS vs. PXSV, how would you assess these choices? ... For now, this may actually come down to VBR vs IJS, due to only 65M in PXSV, in which case, the factor analysis timeframe could be expanded earlier than 6/17/11 (when PXS...
by Ketawa
Mon Aug 04, 2014 10:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: not all small value funds are created equal
Replies: 48
Views: 3618

Re: not all small value funds are created equal

Here are the prints from NASDAQ for PXSV during 10:00 am to 11:59 am. There is no liquidity in this ETF. It had no trades for almost an hour. NLS Time (ET) NLS Price NLS Share Volume 11:40:04 $ 24.17 200 11:07:11 $ 24.0701 1,421 10:17:04 $ 24.26 200 10:17:04 $ 24.26 300 10:08:16 $ 24.28 100 10:08:1...
by Ketawa
Mon Aug 04, 2014 10:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: not all small value funds are created equal
Replies: 48
Views: 3618

Re: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns

If you've got evidence or studies invalidating the one I posted, and showing investors actually did achieve the mythical value premium over the past few decades, please do post it. Otherwise, I've got facts, and you've just got excuses. If the Fama/French data has little relationship to reality, wh...
by Ketawa
Mon Aug 04, 2014 1:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns
Replies: 78
Views: 4844

Re: Barclay Arrival credit card

I don't think this card is worth holding beyond the signup bonus. I was lucky enough to get the bonus when the spending requirement was only $1000. Compared to a boring 1.5% cash back card, you need to spend over $12k to make up the annual fee. Forget about beating the 2% Fidelity AMEX. I am also lu...
by Ketawa
Sun Aug 03, 2014 11:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Barclay Arrival credit card
Replies: 19
Views: 1315

Re: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns

Yeah, because again I'm big on what reality tells me. Here's the in-sample study (1965-2001): Do Investors Capture the Value Premium? . I could re-post my out of sample graphs of Vanguard growth/value funds since 2001, but you're probably aware that they confirm the results above beyond any serious...
by Ketawa
Sun Aug 03, 2014 11:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns
Replies: 78
Views: 4844

Re: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns

steve_14 wrote:And in reality - in real fund results - valuations do in influence future returns, on average. Value, momentum, sector bets, do not.


Interesting that you believe valuations influence future returns, but that this doesn't apply to stocks with low valuations. Ok!
by Ketawa
Sun Aug 03, 2014 12:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arnott's/RAFI 10 year 'expected' returns
Replies: 78
Views: 4844

Re: Factor investing - A parody

There seems to be three fundamental schools of thought on investing: 1) EMH, The efficient market school epitomized by Fama. No portfolio can be expected to beat the total market in the future in risk adjusted returns. For someone who thinks people should tilt, you certainly seem to quote Fama a lo...
by Ketawa
Sat Aug 02, 2014 9:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing - A parody
Replies: 42
Views: 3237

Re: How many families use 529 plans?

I would use a 529 under limited circumstances. I am upper middle class, not high income. 1. Max out tax-advantaged space (IRAs, 401ks, I Bonds, etc) 2. Mortgage paid off (home equity is not counted for FAFSA, is counted for CSS) Only then would I use a 529, and I would consider it an extension of my...
by Ketawa
Sat Aug 02, 2014 9:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many families use 529 plans?
Replies: 107
Views: 6661

Re: Taking out mortgage with zero down. Smart or no?

Are you familiar with the VA funding fee? Make sure you read about it. http://benefits.va.gov/homeloans/purchaseco_loan_fee.asp You might be exempt from it. If not, it makes sense to put down 5% or 10%. For example, consider a $100k loan. Putting down $5k saves you $650 in fees, which is a 13% retur...
by Ketawa
Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:02 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taking out mortgage with zero down. Smart or no?
Replies: 64
Views: 3276

Re: If you tax adjust, how has it changed your life?

Ketawa, Do you mean the highest returns already earned or the likely future highest returns? Some people say it doesn't matter which funds you convert first since the percentages/tax rates will even out in the long run. But I look at the dollar amount the taxes will cost me. I started converting fr...
by Ketawa
Mon Jul 28, 2014 9:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you tax adjust, how has it changed your life?
Replies: 16
Views: 2111

Re: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?

The condo across the hall was sold in 2007 and is on the market right now. My ballpark estimate is that it will sell for 15% lower than the 2007 price, so that is probably close to mine. Mine wasn't sold in 2007, but it was in 2010. It was 3% below the 2010 price when I bought it in 2013. Prices in ...
by Ketawa
Sun Jul 27, 2014 6:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: POLL: My home is worth less/more in 2014 than in 2007?
Replies: 94
Views: 5845

Re: Factor investing - A parody

I liked this parody better.

The Final, Definitive Thead on Value
by Ketawa
Sun Jul 27, 2014 11:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing - A parody
Replies: 42
Views: 3237

Re: If you tax adjust, how has it changed your life?

I started tax adjusting in 2012, I think. All of my fixed income is in the G Fund, and my TSP account is 74% Traditional/26% Roth. My stock/bond split is 80/20, but it is 77/23 pre-tax. A huge difference, I know! The gap will grow as my Traditional accounts start to outstrip Roth accounts; right now...
by Ketawa
Fri Jul 25, 2014 12:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you tax adjust, how has it changed your life?
Replies: 16
Views: 2111

Re: "Asset Location Revisited"

Taxable accounts are undeniably less risky than Roth IRAs, as taxes reduce volatility on both the upside and the downside. Traditional IRAs are the same way. Now, I have nothing against people not tax-adjusting their asset allocation. It might not make a big difference, the future is difficult to pr...
by Ketawa
Thu Jul 24, 2014 3:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The article on tax efficient placement needs to be rewri
Replies: 75
Views: 4529

Re: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at

I have always said that if I could continue to delay past age 80, and grow my benefit by 8%, I would. Too bad it doesn't work that way. Actually, I don't think you would delay much longer. The current 8% increase is based on the PIA, not the prior year amount, so it doesn't compound. That increase ...
by Ketawa
Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:51 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Delay Social Security to age 70 and Spend more money at 62
Replies: 143
Views: 13537

Re: Vanguard not vigilant about taxes?

The South Korea example, with its unwanted gains, is just another example in which passive index investing didn't fully live up to the promise of low portfolio turnover. (And, yes, the active funds were worse over the same period.) Vanguard should vote against this structure. Vanguard's marketing t...
by Ketawa
Thu Jul 24, 2014 1:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard not vigilant about taxes?
Replies: 15
Views: 1685

Re: Momentum Investing ?

AMOMX has ERs ranging 49 basis points to 75 basis points depending on share class. AMOMX is 50 bp and available at TD Ameritrade with no minimum, so a 50/50 value/momentum portfolio using it would cost 30 bp. Of course, you could always use the lower cost iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM).
by Ketawa
Wed Jul 23, 2014 11:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 55
Views: 4588

Re: Momentum Investing ?

If momentum(long) doesn't outperform a growth index and I hold a 50% value index(all market caps)/50% MOM(long), then shouldn't I end up with something that looks and acts a lot like TSM with 10x the ER? Momentum isn't the same as growth. My statement was making the case that if momentum is arbitra...
by Ketawa
Wed Jul 23, 2014 11:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 55
Views: 4588

Re: Best Coffee Maker? What do you have?

A French press.
by Ketawa
Wed Jul 23, 2014 2:14 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Coffee Maker? What do you have?
Replies: 75
Views: 6122

Re: The article on tax efficient placement needs to be rewri

It is insightful, for the same reason that 60/40 is preferred to 40/60 for young people with long investment horizons. Putting stocks in the IRA and bonds in the taxable account is almost guaranteed to outperform over long horizons. This has nothing to do with allocation but saying you have $1 of s...
by Ketawa
Wed Jul 23, 2014 12:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The article on tax efficient placement needs to be rewri
Replies: 75
Views: 4529
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