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Favorite portfolio tracking software

Folks, I've been keeping my portfolio in balance using excel for years. Now, I have too many accounts (inherited IRA, TSP, 401k, ibonds, etc) and was starting to look at portfolio management software like quicken, etc. Does anyone have a recommendation. I'd like it to handle reinvested dividends and...
by Kelly
Sat Jul 19, 2014 4:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite portfolio tracking software
Replies: 14
Views: 1755

Analysis of Money magazine stock picks

The current Journal of Financial Planning has an analysis of the stock picks provided by the largest personal finance magazines vs. a market index. No surprises but good to see that someone has scientifically analyzed it. I wonder if the magazines will report on it? http://www.onefpa.org/journal/Pag...
by Kelly
Wed Jul 09, 2014 7:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Analysis of Money magazine stock picks
Replies: 7
Views: 1412

Re: B Bernstein on Vgd Mid Cap Value vs Large Value Idx

Hub wrote:As someone on my first read through of Four Pillars, I very much appreciate this discussion.


The Investing for Adults series is also very valuable. There's also tons of good stuff on his online journal were I got hooked http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/index.shtml
by Kelly
Sun Jun 22, 2014 5:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: B Bernstein on Vgd Mid Cap Value vs Large Value Idx
Replies: 25
Views: 2707

Re: B Bernstein on Vgd Mid Cap Value vs Large Value Idx

Powershares are new to me and I just noticed that they have a large value fundamental index PXLV with a value loading of 0.59 vs. 0.39 and 0.63 for Powershares FTSE RAFI 1000 and DFA Large Value respectively. I don't want to keep bugging Bill and wonder if anyone knows why PXLV wouldn't be a better ...
by Kelly
Sun Jun 22, 2014 4:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: B Bernstein on Vgd Mid Cap Value vs Large Value Idx
Replies: 25
Views: 2707

Re: B Bernstein on Vgd Mid Cap Value vs Large Value Idx

Kelly: You're right, looking just at regression statistics, that statement is not strictly true. The deeper truth of the matter, too complex to put in a footnote, is that Vanguard's methodology of splitting large cap stocks into value and growth is by market cap, half in value, half in growth. Sinc...
by Kelly
Sun Jun 22, 2014 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: B Bernstein on Vgd Mid Cap Value vs Large Value Idx
Replies: 25
Views: 2707

B Bernstein on Vgd Mid Cap Value vs Large Value Idx

In Bill Bernstein's EXCELLENT new book, Rational Expectations (here: http://tinyurl.com/qcxb9cc ), he provides a list of funds for different asset classes in Table 6 which is labeled "Recommended US Equity Funds." Interestingly, for large value he recommends Vanguard Mid Cap Value (VMVIX) ...
by Kelly
Sun Jun 22, 2014 11:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: B Bernstein on Vgd Mid Cap Value vs Large Value Idx
Replies: 25
Views: 2707

Re: Financial math question

That's it! Many thanks! The change in amount owed in 4 yrs escaped me so I couldn't figure out how to account for ending value in the Rate formula.

Your other posts are equally helpful.

Best

Kelly
by Kelly
Sat Jun 21, 2014 12:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial math question
Replies: 10
Views: 975

Re: Financial math question

Ralph gave me an idea. I set up a spreadsheet and used the IRR function. The $7000 prepayment required to eliminate the mortgage insurance reduced the annual interest expense by an increasing amount. The IRR of the interest stream saved works out to 4.47% over the next 27 years as measured at the 27...
by Kelly
Fri Jun 20, 2014 9:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial math question
Replies: 10
Views: 975

Re: Financial math question

From a purely financial sense your return is much higher. The $7065 is not actually an expense, because it goes to reduce the principal of your loan, and if the payments stay the same, your loan will be paid off sooner. In addition, each months payment now contains less interest and more principal....
by Kelly
Fri Jun 20, 2014 7:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial math question
Replies: 10
Views: 975

Financial math question

Folks This is a simple problem with a very small pay off but the math is bugging me. If I pay an additional $7065 toward my mortgage I can eliminate a small $324/yr mortgage insurance premium. The requirement for this insurance would have gone away through amortization by Jan 2017. My simple math is...
by Kelly
Fri Jun 20, 2014 6:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial math question
Replies: 10
Views: 975

Re: Can someone explain B Bernstein's math

Very nice thread. The point I make repeatedly in the book (as well as in Ages of the Investor) is that it's nearly meaningless to talk about the "risk" of stocks without specifying the ratio of human capital to investment capital. If that ratio is high, that implies you're saving periodic...
by Kelly
Tue Jun 17, 2014 12:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone explain B Bernstein's math
Replies: 42
Views: 3931

Can someone explain B Bernstein's math

Folks, I just finished Bill Bernstein's OUTSTANDING new book, Rational Expectations. I couldn't put it down and now I'm rereading it. Excellent! There's a passage where he explains that stock investing does not become less risky over time. This is an area I've been interested in. Zvi Bodie argues it...
by Kelly
Tue Jun 17, 2014 8:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone explain B Bernstein's math
Replies: 42
Views: 3931

Re: Question: Prof Ang on small premium

Kelly By market risk he means BETA, so they have a beta of more than one But be very careful, while Ang is correct it is bad analysis IMO Basically you had huge bubble in small stocks from 75-83 massive outperformance and very high valuations resulted. So of course you then get lower expected retur...
by Kelly
Tue Jun 10, 2014 12:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question: Prof Ang on small premium
Replies: 13
Views: 875

Re: Question: Prof Ang on small premium

Thanks Richard. This makes sense. On the other hand value has more return than can be explained by it's risk which I think would be defined as its beta.

I just stated B Bernstein's Rational Expectations and I'm hoping he can shed more insight on these issues.

Kelly
by Kelly
Tue Jun 10, 2014 10:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question: Prof Ang on small premium
Replies: 13
Views: 875

Question: Prof Ang on small premium

I just finished Prof Andrew Ang's online finance text book. Can anyone help me understand this passage from ch 14 Factor Investing, pg 22-23? Since the mid-1980s, however, there has been no size premium after adjusting for market risk (see Chapter 7). That is, small stocks do have higher returns tha...
by Kelly
Tue Jun 10, 2014 8:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question: Prof Ang on small premium
Replies: 13
Views: 875

Re: Corp bond question (Ang's online textbook)

Why does the Sharpe ratio of an asset class in isolation matter? To the extent Sharpe ratio is at all meaningful, wouldn't it be much more important to know the Sharpe ratio of your entire portfolio? This is where the answer lies. In Four Pillars Bill Bernstein uses short term corporate bonds in hi...
by Kelly
Tue Jun 03, 2014 8:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corp bond question (Ang's online textbook)
Replies: 7
Views: 572

Re: Corp bond question (Ang's online textbook)

Yes, you're correct. "Crossover" bonds, those rated BBB or BB, have historically offered the highest absolute and risk-adjusted returns. Many thanks for your insight. I've never heard the term "cross over bonds". I google search retrieved many hits. There's lots of info written ...
by Kelly
Tue Jun 03, 2014 6:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corp bond question (Ang's online textbook)
Replies: 7
Views: 572

Corp bond question (Ang's online textbook)

Folks I've been reading Prof Andrew Ang's unpublished (but I believe soon to be) textbook which is available at his website here: http://www.columbia.edu/~aa610/ The fixed income chapter has a table-14 on page 48 which shows the excess returns for AAA, Aa, A, Baa, Caa corp bonds over treasuries for ...
by Kelly
Tue Jun 03, 2014 5:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corp bond question (Ang's online textbook)
Replies: 7
Views: 572

VGD Intermediate corp bond vs total bond

I'm trying to determine the downside of choosing the Intermediate Corp Bond Index Fund (VICSX) over the total bond index. Both are investment grade although the latter is 65% gov't bonds. The corp has a yield that is 1.2% more and one more year duration. It looks like the extra yield is due to the c...
by Kelly
Mon Jun 02, 2014 9:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VGD Intermediate corp bond vs total bond
Replies: 7
Views: 575

Re: The Mega Backdoor Roth IRA

Unless I'm misunderstanding your (2cents) post you still have to deal with the contribution limit on a transfer directly from the VCP to Roth. That would be a Roth contribution as I understand it . Unless there's some special provision allowing a VCP to Roth transfer you still have to make the stop ...
by Kelly
Sun May 18, 2014 9:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Mega Backdoor Roth IRA
Replies: 84
Views: 12346

Re: Question about TIPS yield

I missed your response last month. Thanks for clarifying!

Kelly
by Kelly
Sun May 18, 2014 4:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about TIPS yield
Replies: 3
Views: 633

Re: The Mega Backdoor Roth IRA

They've streamlined this procedure a little bit. You can send your (after tax) voluntary contributions directly to your Roth and send your VCP earnings into your TSP. My understanding is that while the form has these boxes you still have to be qualified to make the Roth transfer as you would a cont...
by Kelly
Sun May 18, 2014 3:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Mega Backdoor Roth IRA
Replies: 84
Views: 12346

Re: Lawyer recommends trust

I didn't want my kids to get a few million when they turned 18. Can you imagine? A trust also has creditor protection (for failed marriages too). An important tool if you have kids.
by Kelly
Sun May 18, 2014 1:21 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lawyer recommends trust
Replies: 81
Views: 5194

Re: Question about applying FF regression

The argument is, that unless there's a statistically significant alpha, an investor could duplicate those returns by creating an index portfolio with equal factor loadings. Not necessarily. One of the reasons index funds don't realize the FF premia in practice is they can't practically track what F...
by Kelly
Sun May 18, 2014 1:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about applying FF regression
Replies: 3
Views: 240

Re: The Mega Backdoor Roth IRA

If you are a gov't CSRS or CSRS offset employee you can make a mega roth contribution. Write a check to the Voluntary Contribution Program equal to a max of 10% of your lifetime earnings. You can then roll this to an IRA and convert it to a Roth. A great deal. If you have other IRAs with deferred gr...
by Kelly
Sun May 18, 2014 12:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Mega Backdoor Roth IRA
Replies: 84
Views: 12346

Question about applying FF regression

I find Portfolio Visualizer (written by some bogleheads) to be a fascinating tool. I'd like to get better at using it. From what I understand the FF regression will tell me if the fund manager produced a return in excess (alpha) of his portfolio loadings (SMB, HML, momentum). The argument is, that u...
by Kelly
Sun May 18, 2014 11:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about applying FF regression
Replies: 3
Views: 240

Question about TIPS yield

Folks, Can anyone explain the difference in yields between two TIPS as listed on this Dec 18, 2013 WSJ data board? The Jan 15 TIP has a yield of 2.8% while the Apr 2015 yields -0.27%. Here http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-tips-20131218.html?mod=mdc_pastcalendar Why the large spread? Than...
by Kelly
Thu Apr 10, 2014 10:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about TIPS yield
Replies: 3
Views: 633

401k early 10% penatly exception

Folks,

There's an exception to the 10% penalty for pre 59 1/2 401k withdrawals if someone is over 55 and is separated from the company. I've learned that box 7 (distribution codes) must have a 2 in it. 2 means that the 10% penalty does not apply. Can anyone confirm this?

Thanks,

Kelly
by Kelly
Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401k early 10% penatly exception
Replies: 4
Views: 400

Re: Where to get highest value loading?

few thoughts First, you can get idea by simply using M* to find value metrics for a fund, look at p/b, p/cf IMO are the best two using M* Second, be careful because the more you load on value the more you have negative MOM loading. What DFA and Bridgeway do to address this is to screen out negative...
by Kelly
Fri Feb 28, 2014 4:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to get highest value loading?
Replies: 5
Views: 504

Where to get highest value loading?

Folks, I just reread Bill Bernstein's take on factor investing. Here http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/702/3FM-10.htm In this paper he mentions that Vanguard Large Cap Value Idx (VIVAX) does not have the value loading that DFA Large Value (DFVLX). I checked this at Portfolio Visualizer http://www....
by Kelly
Fri Feb 28, 2014 3:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to get highest value loading?
Replies: 5
Views: 504

Re: Rick Ferri's 60/40 Portfolio From ETF.com

Ishares (IJS) has a size/value loading of 0.9/0.22 over the last 5 years using portfolio visualizer.
Vanguard (VBR) is 0.65/0.38

So iShares is smaller and Vanguard is more value.
by Kelly
Wed Feb 19, 2014 10:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 60/40 Portfolio From ETF.com
Replies: 7
Views: 1949

Re: Rick Ferri's 60/40 Portfolio From ETF.com

Bill Bernstein gives a value tilt to large and Int'l while Rick only uses small cap value. I'm wondering why. Also, why the iShares small value at 0.3% ER when you could get Vanguard Small Value at 0.1% ER. They track different indexes but is the added cost worth it?

Kelly
by Kelly
Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 60/40 Portfolio From ETF.com
Replies: 7
Views: 1949

Re: Refinance 2.75% HELOC with 5% 2nd mortgage?

I with the others about potentially keeping this and paying it off. But if that is not feasible (keeps you up at night, would take too long, etc), then there are cheaper options than a 5% second mortgage. What is the rate on your first? Could you refi into a new first mortgage with enough to cover ...
by Kelly
Mon Feb 17, 2014 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance 2.75% HELOC with 5% 2nd mortgage?
Replies: 13
Views: 803

Refinance 2.75% HELOC with 5% 2nd mortgage?

Folks, I have a 2.75% HELOC with a $65,000 balance and insufficient funds to pay it all off but I do direct surplus cash flow to it. The variable rate worries me. It appears that the cheapest fixed option is a 5% fixed rate, 30 year second mortgage. The intent would be to divert surplus cash flow to...
by Kelly
Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:42 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance 2.75% HELOC with 5% 2nd mortgage?
Replies: 13
Views: 803

Re: FICA taxes -- SS implications?

You get a quarter of coverage for every $1200 you earn this year regardless of what quarter you earn it in. You can't earn more than 4 per year. The amount required to earn a qtr changes each year but you can find the amount through this link http://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/QC.html . You should be able...
by Kelly
Sun Feb 16, 2014 2:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FICA tax refund -- SS implications, can I send it back?
Replies: 12
Views: 765

Re: Financial Advisor - This good so far?

See a fee only adviser. They don't sell any products. Here's the search engine at NAPFA the fee only trade group
http://findanadvisor.napfa.org/Home.aspx

That's probably the most honest, unbiased advice you'll get.

Kelly
by Kelly
Wed Feb 05, 2014 8:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Advisor - This good so far?
Replies: 46
Views: 2777

What does the futures market say about home prices?

I know that futures are traded on the Case Shiller home price index. Where can I find what they imply for home price increases?

Thanks

Kelly
by Kelly
Thu Jan 16, 2014 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What does the futures market say about home prices?
Replies: 0
Views: 154

Re: when you reach"your number"

I reached it at 48 at $2M (also have military pension). I have to continue working so as not to go into negative cash flow. The"number" is my retirement number. The timing was good since that's when we started having kids and ALL savings stopped. My company deposits an amount equal to 15% ...
by Kelly
Thu Jan 09, 2014 7:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: when you reach"your number"
Replies: 84
Views: 9061

Re: What is Coke stock beta?

Magician,

Many thanks for these very valuable posts. I think I may finally understand beta!

Kelly
by Kelly
Tue Jan 07, 2014 8:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Coke stock beta?
Replies: 8
Views: 709

What is Coke stock beta?

I'm having trouble understanding the Beta of Coke stock (KO). Morningstar reports a beta of 0.25 http://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/ko/s?t=ko

This can't mean KO is only 25% as volatile as the market? If it's not 25% as volatile as the market, what does 0.25 mean?

Thanks

Kelly
by Kelly
Mon Jan 06, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Coke stock beta?
Replies: 8
Views: 709

Re: Need help with my 401k options

There's an important piece of information missing: What are the expense ratios of each fund? When you say "two choices with my 401k", do you literally mean these are the only two funds in your employer's 401k plan? That would be very strange - no bond funds, no domestic funds, no stable v...
by Kelly
Thu Jan 02, 2014 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help with my 401k options
Replies: 3
Views: 359

Need help with my 401k options

Folks, I have two choices with my 401k. Neither are indexes. I'm not sure which is best. I'm 42, married. LAIAX (Columia Acorn International) which is medium growth. MPT Stats: 10 year alpha: 4.15 10 year Sharpe: 0.61 10 year annualized: 11.9 10 year std dev: 19 AEGPX (American Funds Euro Pacific Gr...
by Kelly
Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help with my 401k options
Replies: 3
Views: 359

Another free FF3 site

Two questions: if anyone knows anything about this site, ( http://www.fundfactors.com/ ) do you also know why it doesn't recognize all the funds that pvguy's site portfoliovisualizer.com does? Also, a nagging question is why do index funds show up with negative alpha's. Can it be that their size/val...
by Kelly
Sun Dec 29, 2013 8:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another free FF3 site
Replies: 3
Views: 651

Re: Question about Fama French regression

When you do a factor regression, you are asking the computer to tell you how much of the variability of the portfolio can be explained by a fixed allocation to your risk factors. If the manager changed his portfolio around during the time of the regression, you'll get some kind of "average&quo...
by Kelly
Sat Dec 28, 2013 2:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about Fama French regression
Replies: 8
Views: 706

Quicken vs Mint???

Has anyone tried both Quicken and Mint and do you have a preference? I'd like to get some sort of spending tracker.

Many thanks
Kelly
by Kelly
Tue Dec 24, 2013 9:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken vs Mint???
Replies: 2
Views: 571

Re: Question about Fama French regression

It will give you the results of the model over the period studied and tell you whether the fund did better or worse than expected. If there is alpha, the fund did better than the model would predict, whether due to taking on more SV risk, timing, luck, etc. I still don't understand. Suppose it's 20...
by Kelly
Sun Dec 22, 2013 9:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about Fama French regression
Replies: 8
Views: 706

Question about Fama French regression

I've been trying to understand the Fama French 3 factor regression with limited success. From a paper on the subject published by Dartmouth I learned that the Three Factor Model often exposes the fact that a positive alpha observed in a CAPM regression is merely a result of exposure to HML or SMB fa...
by Kelly
Sun Dec 22, 2013 7:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about Fama French regression
Replies: 8
Views: 706

Re: Auto Lawsuit Statistics [Purchasing umbrella insurance]

Answer to your question.. I researched this several years ago. If sued, all your ERISA protected retirement plans (401k, 403b, defined benefit) are protected, as is your social security. Federal law protects IRA assets up to $1M. If those IRA assets were rolled from an ERISA plan they retain that un...
by Kelly
Mon Dec 16, 2013 9:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Auto Lawsuit Statistics [Purchasing umbrella insurance]
Replies: 50
Views: 3282

Gov'ts target retirement fund bond allocation

I noticed that the Gov'ts thrift savings plan (TSP) target retirement 2040 has 9% in the total bond index and 13% in the non marketable (no interest rate risk) G fund. Vanguard's 2040 retirement fund has 10% in bonds. I'm wondering if the Gov't efficient frontier is somehow different due to the G fu...
by Kelly
Thu Dec 12, 2013 9:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gov'ts target retirement fund bond allocation
Replies: 4
Views: 874

Where are Morningstar load adjusted returns?

Does anyone know where I can find M*s load adjusted returns? If I compare a fund like ANCFX with it's load waived counterpart the returns of the two funds are the same. However M* tells me they account for the load. But where?? http://www.morningstar.com/InvGlossary/load_adjusted_return_definition_w...
by Kelly
Sat Dec 07, 2013 10:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where are Morningstar load adjusted returns?
Replies: 1
Views: 134
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