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Question about TIPS yield

Folks, Can anyone explain the difference in yields between two TIPS as listed on this Dec 18, 2013 WSJ data board? The Jan 15 TIP has a yield of 2.8% while the Apr 2015 yields -0.27%. Here http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-tips-20131218.html?mod=mdc_pastcalendar Why the large spread? Than...
by Kelly
Thu Apr 10, 2014 10:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about TIPS yield
Replies: 2
Views: 397

401k early 10% penatly exception

Folks,

There's an exception to the 10% penalty for pre 59 1/2 401k withdrawals if someone is over 55 and is separated from the company. I've learned that box 7 (distribution codes) must have a 2 in it. 2 means that the 10% penalty does not apply. Can anyone confirm this?

Thanks,

Kelly
by Kelly
Wed Mar 19, 2014 3:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401k early 10% penatly exception
Replies: 4
Views: 393

Re: Where to get highest value loading?

few thoughts First, you can get idea by simply using M* to find value metrics for a fund, look at p/b, p/cf IMO are the best two using M* Second, be careful because the more you load on value the more you have negative MOM loading. What DFA and Bridgeway do to address this is to screen out negative...
by Kelly
Fri Feb 28, 2014 4:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to get highest value loading?
Replies: 5
Views: 477

Where to get highest value loading?

Folks, I just reread Bill Bernstein's take on factor investing. Here http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/702/3FM-10.htm In this paper he mentions that Vanguard Large Cap Value Idx (VIVAX) does not have the value loading that DFA Large Value (DFVLX). I checked this at Portfolio Visualizer http://www....
by Kelly
Fri Feb 28, 2014 3:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where to get highest value loading?
Replies: 5
Views: 477

Re: Rick Ferri's 60/40 Portfolio From ETF.com

Ishares (IJS) has a size/value loading of 0.9/0.22 over the last 5 years using portfolio visualizer.
Vanguard (VBR) is 0.65/0.38

So iShares is smaller and Vanguard is more value.
by Kelly
Wed Feb 19, 2014 10:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 60/40 Portfolio From ETF.com
Replies: 7
Views: 1831

Re: Rick Ferri's 60/40 Portfolio From ETF.com

Bill Bernstein gives a value tilt to large and Int'l while Rick only uses small cap value. I'm wondering why. Also, why the iShares small value at 0.3% ER when you could get Vanguard Small Value at 0.1% ER. They track different indexes but is the added cost worth it?

Kelly
by Kelly
Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri's 60/40 Portfolio From ETF.com
Replies: 7
Views: 1831

Re: Refinance 2.75% HELOC with 5% 2nd mortgage?

I with the others about potentially keeping this and paying it off. But if that is not feasible (keeps you up at night, would take too long, etc), then there are cheaper options than a 5% second mortgage. What is the rate on your first? Could you refi into a new first mortgage with enough to cover ...
by Kelly
Mon Feb 17, 2014 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance 2.75% HELOC with 5% 2nd mortgage?
Replies: 13
Views: 729

Refinance 2.75% HELOC with 5% 2nd mortgage?

Folks, I have a 2.75% HELOC with a $65,000 balance and insufficient funds to pay it all off but I do direct surplus cash flow to it. The variable rate worries me. It appears that the cheapest fixed option is a 5% fixed rate, 30 year second mortgage. The intent would be to divert surplus cash flow to...
by Kelly
Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:42 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance 2.75% HELOC with 5% 2nd mortgage?
Replies: 13
Views: 729

Re: FICA taxes -- SS implications?

You get a quarter of coverage for every $1200 you earn this year regardless of what quarter you earn it in. You can't earn more than 4 per year. The amount required to earn a qtr changes each year but you can find the amount through this link http://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/QC.html . You should be able...
by Kelly
Sun Feb 16, 2014 2:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FICA tax refund -- SS implications, can I send it back?
Replies: 12
Views: 738

Re: Financial Advisor - This good so far?

See a fee only adviser. They don't sell any products. Here's the search engine at NAPFA the fee only trade group
http://findanadvisor.napfa.org/Home.aspx

That's probably the most honest, unbiased advice you'll get.

Kelly
by Kelly
Wed Feb 05, 2014 8:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Advisor - This good so far?
Replies: 46
Views: 2483

What does the futures market say about home prices?

I know that futures are traded on the Case Shiller home price index. Where can I find what they imply for home price increases?

Thanks

Kelly
by Kelly
Thu Jan 16, 2014 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What does the futures market say about home prices?
Replies: 0
Views: 133

Re: when you reach"your number"

I reached it at 48 at $2M (also have military pension). I have to continue working so as not to go into negative cash flow. The"number" is my retirement number. The timing was good since that's when we started having kids and ALL savings stopped. My company deposits an amount equal to 15% ...
by Kelly
Thu Jan 09, 2014 7:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: when you reach"your number"
Replies: 84
Views: 8905

Re: What is Coke stock beta?

Magician,

Many thanks for these very valuable posts. I think I may finally understand beta!

Kelly
by Kelly
Tue Jan 07, 2014 8:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Coke stock beta?
Replies: 8
Views: 684

What is Coke stock beta?

I'm having trouble understanding the Beta of Coke stock (KO). Morningstar reports a beta of 0.25 http://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/ko/s?t=ko

This can't mean KO is only 25% as volatile as the market? If it's not 25% as volatile as the market, what does 0.25 mean?

Thanks

Kelly
by Kelly
Mon Jan 06, 2014 1:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Coke stock beta?
Replies: 8
Views: 684

Re: Need help with my 401k options

There's an important piece of information missing: What are the expense ratios of each fund? When you say "two choices with my 401k", do you literally mean these are the only two funds in your employer's 401k plan? That would be very strange - no bond funds, no domestic funds, no stable v...
by Kelly
Thu Jan 02, 2014 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help with my 401k options
Replies: 3
Views: 356

Need help with my 401k options

Folks, I have two choices with my 401k. Neither are indexes. I'm not sure which is best. I'm 42, married. LAIAX (Columia Acorn International) which is medium growth. MPT Stats: 10 year alpha: 4.15 10 year Sharpe: 0.61 10 year annualized: 11.9 10 year std dev: 19 AEGPX (American Funds Euro Pacific Gr...
by Kelly
Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help with my 401k options
Replies: 3
Views: 356

Another free FF3 site

Two questions: if anyone knows anything about this site, ( http://www.fundfactors.com/ ) do you also know why it doesn't recognize all the funds that pvguy's site portfoliovisualizer.com does? Also, a nagging question is why do index funds show up with negative alpha's. Can it be that their size/val...
by Kelly
Sun Dec 29, 2013 8:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another free FF3 site
Replies: 3
Views: 644

Re: Question about Fama French regression

When you do a factor regression, you are asking the computer to tell you how much of the variability of the portfolio can be explained by a fixed allocation to your risk factors. If the manager changed his portfolio around during the time of the regression, you'll get some kind of "average&quo...
by Kelly
Sat Dec 28, 2013 2:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about Fama French regression
Replies: 8
Views: 692

Quicken vs Mint???

Has anyone tried both Quicken and Mint and do you have a preference? I'd like to get some sort of spending tracker.

Many thanks
Kelly
by Kelly
Tue Dec 24, 2013 9:41 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken vs Mint???
Replies: 2
Views: 554

Re: Question about Fama French regression

It will give you the results of the model over the period studied and tell you whether the fund did better or worse than expected. If there is alpha, the fund did better than the model would predict, whether due to taking on more SV risk, timing, luck, etc. I still don't understand. Suppose it's 20...
by Kelly
Sun Dec 22, 2013 9:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about Fama French regression
Replies: 8
Views: 692

Question about Fama French regression

I've been trying to understand the Fama French 3 factor regression with limited success. From a paper on the subject published by Dartmouth I learned that the Three Factor Model often exposes the fact that a positive alpha observed in a CAPM regression is merely a result of exposure to HML or SMB fa...
by Kelly
Sun Dec 22, 2013 7:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about Fama French regression
Replies: 8
Views: 692

Re: Auto Lawsuit Statistics [Purchasing umbrella insurance]

Answer to your question.. I researched this several years ago. If sued, all your ERISA protected retirement plans (401k, 403b, defined benefit) are protected, as is your social security. Federal law protects IRA assets up to $1M. If those IRA assets were rolled from an ERISA plan they retain that un...
by Kelly
Mon Dec 16, 2013 9:30 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Auto Lawsuit Statistics [Purchasing umbrella insurance]
Replies: 50
Views: 3043

Gov'ts target retirement fund bond allocation

I noticed that the Gov'ts thrift savings plan (TSP) target retirement 2040 has 9% in the total bond index and 13% in the non marketable (no interest rate risk) G fund. Vanguard's 2040 retirement fund has 10% in bonds. I'm wondering if the Gov't efficient frontier is somehow different due to the G fu...
by Kelly
Thu Dec 12, 2013 9:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gov'ts target retirement fund bond allocation
Replies: 4
Views: 827

Where are Morningstar load adjusted returns?

Does anyone know where I can find M*s load adjusted returns? If I compare a fund like ANCFX with it's load waived counterpart the returns of the two funds are the same. However M* tells me they account for the load. But where?? http://www.morningstar.com/InvGlossary/load_adjusted_return_definition_w...
by Kelly
Sat Dec 07, 2013 10:05 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where are Morningstar load adjusted returns?
Replies: 1
Views: 132

Re: Learn Statistics? How?

I trying to do the same. I was good at it in college but it's all forgotten now. I found this book helpful as a quick read http://www.amazon.com/Statistics-Plain-English-Third-Timothy/dp/041587291X/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1386281335&sr=1-1&keywords=statistics
by Kelly
Thu Dec 05, 2013 6:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Learn Statistics? How?
Replies: 40
Views: 2292

Re: Can someone help me with 3 factor output data?

Many thanks Larry! But do I understand the less than 2 t-stat meaning??

Kelly
by Kelly
Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone help me with 3 factor output data?
Replies: 3
Views: 264

Can someone help me with 3 factor output data?

I find this free website developed by a boglehead to be of great value http://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/ . I bought a statistics book to help me understand the data but I'm still having some trouble. I ran Royce Total Return (RTRWX) through it and got an -0.05% alpha with a t-stat of -0.54. I know...
by Kelly
Wed Dec 04, 2013 11:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone help me with 3 factor output data?
Replies: 3
Views: 264

Should Shiller CAPE effect loan payoff decision?

I found this article (below) interesting in which the author made the point that you should only carry a mortgage and invest if you can get the historic (or expected) equity risk premium over the cost of the mortgage. He frames the mortgage as your personal risk free rate. The same point can be made...
by Kelly
Mon Dec 02, 2013 5:34 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should Shiller CAPE effect loan payoff decision?
Replies: 2
Views: 193

Considering prepaid college plan

I have two children ages 6 and 2 and I'm planning on college funding. Each child already has partial post 9/11 GI Bill. This benefit will pay for about a year of tuition for each. I was considering prepaying one year tuition for each through the Maryland prepaid college trust plan. It's about $10,50...
by Kelly
Fri Nov 15, 2013 2:44 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Considering prepaid college plan
Replies: 6
Views: 512

Any opinions on Vgds managed payout funds

Does anyone know of any academic research into Vgds managed payout funds? They are a fund of funds that may be great for investors that have only IRAs but if one has both taxable and IRA they'd be better off optimizing asset location by allocating themselves. Some of them have a small allocation to ...
by Kelly
Sat Nov 09, 2013 10:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any opinions on Vgds managed payout funds
Replies: 1
Views: 329

Re: Please help interpret this 3 factor analysis

Is there a simple definition of Alpha t-stat? For example, Invesco Select Companies (ATIAX) has an alpha of 0.26% and an alpha t-stat of 1.40. How would one interpret this?

Many thanks

Kelly
by Kelly
Wed Oct 30, 2013 9:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please help interpret this 3 factor analysis
Replies: 15
Views: 908

Re: Please help interpret this 3 factor analysis

If you're actually considering these funds for inclusion in your portfolio, keep in mind that PRSVX switched indexes just a little over a year ago. So results that includes earlier periods are of little use when estimating future returns. Thanks bernston. I wasn't considering this, I just used that...
by Kelly
Tue Oct 29, 2013 4:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please help interpret this 3 factor analysis
Replies: 15
Views: 908

Re: Please help interpret this 3 factor analysis

Many thanks for the help. Another question: what's the difference between the "Fama French Benchmark" and "US Research Returns"? I've read the definitions but don't know their significance.

Kelly
by Kelly
Tue Oct 29, 2013 1:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please help interpret this 3 factor analysis
Replies: 15
Views: 908

Please help interpret this 3 factor analysis

First, many thanks to the Boglehead that created Portfolio Visualizer http://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/ . What an amazing tool! However, I don't quite understand it all yet and I'm hoping someone can help me interpret the results of a factor analysis. I've wondered how/why TR Price small cap value...
by Kelly
Tue Oct 29, 2013 10:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please help interpret this 3 factor analysis
Replies: 15
Views: 908

Re: a lot of alpha is really beta

Larry, Thanks for this article and your books of which I have several. I've always wondered if one could argue that, yes, that managers return can be explained by the loading but, that manager knew to tilt to small at some point in time and then tilt away from small at some other point, etc. Is that...
by Kelly
Tue Oct 29, 2013 9:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a lot of alpha is really beta
Replies: 14
Views: 1300

Re: Why are Vgds Target Ret Funds size and style neutral?

Vanguard for the most part does not believe in factor investing. They are a total market investing shop. Even the STAR fund which is an actively managed fund-of-funds is balanced between value and growth and roughly approximates the market on sizes. I figured it had to do with not taking a side in ...
by Kelly
Fri Oct 25, 2013 8:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Vgds Target Ret Funds size and style neutral?
Replies: 4
Views: 406

Why are Vgds Target Ret Funds size and style neutral?

This is a question I've had for some time and I'm hoping someone can shed some light. Bill Bernstein reiterated the persistence of the value premium in "Skating where the puck was". In backtesting portfolios with Simba's spreadsheet I find higher returns and lower volatility with value and...
by Kelly
Fri Oct 25, 2013 4:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are Vgds Target Ret Funds size and style neutral?
Replies: 4
Views: 406

Should I set up two Vgd Tax Ex Bond fund accounts?

I'm placing about one third of my retirement assets in Vgds Intermediate Tax Exempt Bond Fund. I have limited IRA space so this is my only option. My dilemma is that if I place it all in one account the interest (if not reinvested) combined with my IRA required minimum distributions will exceed my i...
by Kelly
Wed Oct 23, 2013 7:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I set up two Vgd Tax Ex Bond fund accounts?
Replies: 5
Views: 424

Where can I find historical yields for Barclays bond idx?

Is there anywhere I can find the historic yields of the bond market? I know where to get it for treasuries but I'm looking for the total bond market (aka Barclays or Lehman Agg Bond Indx).

Thanks

Kelly
by Kelly
Wed Oct 23, 2013 11:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where can I find historical yields for Barclays bond idx?
Replies: 3
Views: 244

Any reason why I shouldn't have 1/3 in Vgd Inter Tax Ex Bond

I'm in the process of reallocating and due to lack of tax deferred account space I find I have to have about half of my bond allocation in a taxable account. So, is there any reason why I should not have 1/3 of my money in Vanguard's Intermediate Term Tax Exempt bond fund? Thanks for any thoughts Ke...
by Kelly
Wed Oct 23, 2013 10:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any reason why I shouldn't have 1/3 in Vgd Inter Tax Ex Bond
Replies: 9
Views: 1144

Re: CREF Bond Market Account vs. Vgd Total Bond question?

Levett wrote:Kelly,

In part, you are losing the expense ratio spread between CREF Bond (0.44 ER) and Total Bond (ER Admiral 0.10/ER Investor 0.20).

Costs matter!

Lev


Indeed!! But I don't think that fees apply to the SEC defined yield??

Kelly
by Kelly
Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CREF Bond Market Account vs. Vgd Total Bond question?
Replies: 5
Views: 370

CREF Bond Market Account vs. Vgd Total Bond question?

I need more bonds and have access to CREF Bond Market Account https://www.tiaa-cref.org/public/tcfpi/investment/profile?symbol=41081991 I can't understand why its duration (5.3 yrs) and average coupon (3.6%) is very close to Vanguard's Total Bond Mkt (5.4 yrs and 3.5%). Yet the CREF 30 day yield is ...
by Kelly
Tue Oct 22, 2013 5:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CREF Bond Market Account vs. Vgd Total Bond question?
Replies: 5
Views: 370

Re: What to Read After the Bogleheads Guide to Investing?

Bernstein's Four Pillars of Investing is one stop shopping for all your investment knowledge needs. He does a great job showing you how to use the breakthroughs in investment research to create a portfolio that works.

Kelly
by Kelly
Tue Oct 22, 2013 5:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to Read After the Bogleheads Guide to Investing?
Replies: 25
Views: 2480

Can someon explain TIPS duration comment from Sauter

Wade Pfau tweeted this quote from Gus Sauter at bogleheads: TIPS are currently scary because pack in more duration and will get hit hard by rate rise.

Can anyone explain how/why TIPS "pack in more duration"?

Many thanks

Kelly
by Kelly
Sat Oct 19, 2013 2:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someon explain TIPS duration comment from Sauter
Replies: 22
Views: 2029

Why are money mkts paying less than banks?

I'd love to understand why/how a bank like GE Capital Retail https://www.gogecapital.com/en/consumer-credit-financing/index.html can afford to pay 0.90% when a money market cannot. Perhaps this was always the case but I didn't notice.

Does anyone know the answer?

Thanks

Kelly
by Kelly
Mon Oct 14, 2013 9:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are money mkts paying less than banks?
Replies: 7
Views: 1018

Bond duration now?

With some hesitancy I think I may have crossed the retirement "finish line" and I plan to take the advice of Bill Bernstein and Larry Swedroe and drastically downshift my equities to 30%. Now where to put the other 70%? Like most Bogelheads, I stick to market neutral positions which leads ...
by Kelly
Mon Oct 14, 2013 7:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond duration now?
Replies: 3
Views: 508

Re: Jack Bogle says rebalancing is overhyped?!

Which one? When? Where? And why should we believe in that person's credibility?


Charlie Ellis http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/01/investing/rebalance-portfolio.moneymag/index.html?source=cnn_bin
by Kelly
Mon Oct 14, 2013 7:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle says rebalancing is overhyped?!
Replies: 83
Views: 8197

Is there a difference? Total Int'l vs FTSE all world ex US

What's the difference between Total Int'l (VXUS) and FTSE all world ex us (VEU)? They appear to be very similar but, presumably, there's enough of a difference for both to be sold.


Many thanks!

Kelly
by Kelly
Sun Oct 13, 2013 8:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a difference? Total Int'l vs FTSE all world ex US
Replies: 2
Views: 560

Re: how to de-rate social security

The SS "insolvency" is overblown. SS has been in much worst trouble before. In the mid 70's SS was six years from insolvency before they made an adjustment to the way they were calculating inflation. They made a small change and problem was fixed. In that legislation everyone 55 and older ...
by Kelly
Thu Oct 10, 2013 2:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: how to de-rate social security
Replies: 22
Views: 1404
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