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Re: struggling to understand "bond crash"

The articles you're reading are just noise, ignore the noise and you'll be better off.
by John3754
Mon Sep 01, 2014 3:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: struggling to understand "bond crash"
Replies: 6
Views: 650

Re: Probability question

The odds do not change, the odds of him drawing the #1 three years in a row is 1/12x1/12x1/12, but the odds of him picking #1 in any given single year is still 1/12. The belief that him picking the #1 for the last two years lowers his chances of picking it again next year is called "the gambler...
by John3754
Fri Aug 29, 2014 3:23 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Probability question
Replies: 14
Views: 1117

Re: Can/do you sell bonds to purchase stocks?

What you are proposing is rebalancing your stocks:bonds asset allocation back to your nominal values whenever stocks drop in value. For example, suppose you want an asset allocation of 90:10 and if stocks dropped so your asset allocation was 85:15, then you can exchange from bond fund to equity fun...
by John3754
Wed Aug 27, 2014 1:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can/do you sell bonds to purchase stocks?
Replies: 19
Views: 922

Re: Warren Buffet and the S&P index fund

Because it's simple.
by John3754
Wed Aug 27, 2014 1:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffet and the S&P index fund
Replies: 23
Views: 1726

Re: Can/do you sell bonds to purchase stocks?

What you're proposing is market timing, which you won't find much support for on this forum.
by John3754
Wed Aug 27, 2014 1:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can/do you sell bonds to purchase stocks?
Replies: 19
Views: 922

Re: AA of 60/40 for your Lifetime?

The more stocks you have, the better you do, but you have a higher chance for poor results. Risk vs. Reward. It appears fairly monotonic but I haven't plotted it out. If so, no sweet spot. There may not be a nominal "sweet spot" but that doesn't mean there isn't a risk adjusted "swee...
by John3754
Wed Aug 27, 2014 11:48 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA of 60/40 for your Lifetime?
Replies: 27
Views: 2307

Re: invest only in vtsmx and total bond market index.

I don't hold international, but there's a lot of people here who advocate overweighting it... The recommendations I've seen in this board for international range from 0% to market cap weight...personally I don't see how you could call anything within that range "overweighting" when really...
by John3754
Tue Aug 26, 2014 4:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: invest only in vtsmx and total bond market index.
Replies: 8
Views: 1363

Re: Buy & Hold Forever Blue Chip Stocks???

SuperSaver wrote:But I do firmly believe:
1) Individual Stocks should be a part of every diversified portfolio


Why do you believe that?
by John3754
Sun Aug 24, 2014 8:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buy & Hold Forever Blue Chip Stocks???
Replies: 73
Views: 3855

Re: Do you tip on the tax?

Not that long ago 15% was considered a standard tip and 18% was considered a GOOD tip...now it seems that 20% is considered standard...why is that and how long will be before servers are demanding 30% tips?
by John3754
Fri Aug 22, 2014 2:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you tip on the tax? [Restaurants]
Replies: 124
Views: 4980

Re: Do you tip on the tax?

I'm surprised so many people tip percentage. Person 1 at a table orders a $10 pasta dish. Person 2 orders a $30 steak. Same amount of interaction with the wait staff. Think drinks too. Person 1 orders Bud. Person 2 orders Chimay. Same work for the bartender/waiter. Why tip differently? I tip on qua...
by John3754
Fri Aug 22, 2014 9:07 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you tip on the tax? [Restaurants]
Replies: 124
Views: 4980

Re: Do you tip on the tax?

Tipping culture in some regions of this country has gotten out of hand.
by John3754
Fri Aug 22, 2014 8:55 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you tip on the tax? [Restaurants]
Replies: 124
Views: 4980

Re: A question about Sherry

Trader Joe wrote:Toss it.


Makes no sense to toss it without tasting it first, it could be totally fine, especially since the OP says that it looks and smells perfectly normal.
by John3754
Thu Aug 21, 2014 9:37 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A question about Sherry
Replies: 13
Views: 1269

Re: Kimchi

countofmc wrote:Those of you that ferment foods at home, isn't this quite dangerous? Seems like a high botulism risk, ala home-canning.


Not at all.
by John3754
Thu Aug 21, 2014 5:58 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kimchi
Replies: 40
Views: 1860

Re: Kimchi

Peterjens wrote:
Alf 101 wrote:2. Do any of you make this?

Made my first batch last weekend. Yummy. Here's a tip - keep the kimchi in a jar with tight-fitting lid. If not, the fragrance will fill the fridge.


Careful, a tightly sealed jar could build up pressure from the initial fermentation and potentially explode.
by John3754
Thu Aug 21, 2014 3:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kimchi
Replies: 40
Views: 1860

Re: Kimchi

abuss368 wrote:What is Kimchi?


http://lmgtfy.com/?q=kimchi
by John3754
Thu Aug 21, 2014 2:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kimchi
Replies: 40
Views: 1860

Re: Kimchi

I love kimchi and make large batches of it regularly. No self respecting Korean (not that I am one, but I have Korean family by marriage) would buy kimchi in a store. And yes the smell is similar to saurkraut as they're both lactic fermented cabbage.
by John3754
Thu Aug 21, 2014 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kimchi
Replies: 40
Views: 1860

Re: Purpose of VTIAX?

There have been periods when international has under performed domestic, and periods when it has outperformed domestic. That's the point, diversification, the two funds hold a completely different portfolio of stocks so one would not expect them to perform exactly the same at any particular point in...
by John3754
Wed Aug 20, 2014 3:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Purpose of VTIAX?
Replies: 5
Views: 471

Re: [live off dividends?] How the rich stay/get richer??

As an early retiree the last 6 years, I have been living off dividends. Most of my bond fund dividends are used to pay my bills but excess bond fund dividends get reinvested. My stock fund dividends get reinvested as do any cap gain distributions from all my funds. I also have unrealized cap gains ...
by John3754
Wed Aug 20, 2014 12:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [live off dividends?] How the rich stay/get richer??
Replies: 62
Views: 4929

Re: [live off dividends?] How the rich stay/get richer??

The dividends have nothing to do with it, they are an illusion, the mathematical fact is that if you spend less than the growth generated by your portfolio then it will continue to grow, regardless of whether it comes from dividends or not. For example, if a portfolio generates 2% dividends and 6% c...
by John3754
Wed Aug 20, 2014 7:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [live off dividends?] How the rich stay/get richer??
Replies: 62
Views: 4929

Re: VBMPX safe enough for saving for tuition

How would you feel if you lost 10% of your tuition money?
by John3754
Tue Aug 19, 2014 9:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VBMPX safe enough for saving for tuition
Replies: 7
Views: 573

Re: gifting money, and smoking

Angelus359 wrote:He tried quitting like 5 years ago. His hands shook so much from nicotine withdrawal that he couldn't work and his doctor told him to start smoking again.


I'm calling shenanigans on this.
by John3754
Tue Aug 19, 2014 2:11 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: gifting money, and smoking
Replies: 30
Views: 2403

Re: gifting money, and smoking

Trying to get someone to give up smoking when they don't really want to is a total waste of time.
by John3754
Tue Aug 19, 2014 12:09 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: gifting money, and smoking
Replies: 30
Views: 2403

Re: 20 Year Old With 70k to Invest

The index funds always have history of always coming back up, as long as you wait long enough. In the early 90s the Nikkei index dropped over 60% and it hasn't recovered yet. Ok, what I meant was, most total stock market indexes, that own most of the stock market, don't fall and never come back, as...
by John3754
Tue Aug 19, 2014 7:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20 Year Old With 70k to Invest
Replies: 49
Views: 2491

Re: 20 Year Old With 70k to Invest

JoshCine wrote:The index funds always have history of always coming back up, as long as you wait long enough.


In the early 90s the Nikkei index dropped over 60% and it hasn't recovered yet.
by John3754
Tue Aug 19, 2014 12:10 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20 Year Old With 70k to Invest
Replies: 49
Views: 2491

Re: 20 Year Old With 70k to Invest

Alright, I like the Vanguard World Fund. Should I put all 70k in there? How would you feel if your portfolio lost 50% of it's value? I'll let someone else address the issue of individual stocks. :wink: I think I would be okay. Just leave it in there and wait for it to go up again. Is that the right...
by John3754
Mon Aug 18, 2014 11:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20 Year Old With 70k to Invest
Replies: 49
Views: 2491

Re: 20 Year Old With 70k to Invest

People blindly make recommendations for 100% stock portfolios on this board without knowing anything at all about the persons risk tolerance. The fact that someone is in their 20s or 30s does not mean that 100% stock is automatically appropriate for them, in fact the OP said in his original post (a...
by John3754
Mon Aug 18, 2014 11:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20 Year Old With 70k to Invest
Replies: 49
Views: 2491

Re: 20 Year Old With 70k to Invest

l1nkown wrote:Alright, I like the Vanguard World Fund. Should I put all 70k in there?


How would you feel if your portfolio lost 50% of it's value?

I'll let someone else address the issue of individual stocks. :wink:
by John3754
Mon Aug 18, 2014 11:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20 Year Old With 70k to Invest
Replies: 49
Views: 2491

Re: 20 Year Old With 70k to Invest

People will tell you to invest some in bonds, but I feel its not a good idea. At our age, as long as you have an emergency fund and don't plan on taking anything out for quite awhile, you'll be fine. At 19-20, I don't see a problem with that. People blindly make recommendations for 100% stock portf...
by John3754
Mon Aug 18, 2014 10:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20 Year Old With 70k to Invest
Replies: 49
Views: 2491

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

The gold train doesn't seem to have gone anywhere...
by John3754
Mon Aug 18, 2014 8:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 113
Views: 6989

Re: Does this Bond AA make sense?

If you're concerned about interest rate risk, have you considered CDs instead of bond funds? What is your time horizon for this money?
by John3754
Sun Aug 17, 2014 11:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does this Bond AA make sense?
Replies: 9
Views: 480

Re: Help with investing "fun" money

If you're going to "just buy another index fund" then why don't you take your "fun" money and simply put it into your regular asset allocation?
by John3754
Sun Aug 17, 2014 2:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with investing "fun" money
Replies: 7
Views: 641

Re: Who sells fresh coffee that is not as strong as Starbuck

And while I believe caffeine has a "feel" to it, I don't think it has much of a taste . Caffeine is a bitter alkaloid and it can most certainly be tasted. I said "not much of a taste." It's not the only bitter taste in coffee. Decaf tastes bitter, too, and while I think I can te...
by John3754
Fri Aug 15, 2014 5:32 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who sells fresh coffee that is not as strong as Starbucks?
Replies: 50
Views: 2338

Re: Who sells fresh coffee that is not as strong as Starbuck

nisiprius wrote:And while I believe caffeine has a "feel" to it, I don't think it has much of a taste.


Caffeine is a bitter alkaloid and it can most certainly be tasted.
by John3754
Fri Aug 15, 2014 5:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who sells fresh coffee that is not as strong as Starbucks?
Replies: 50
Views: 2338

Re: Who sells fresh coffee that is not as strong as Starbuck

rec7 wrote:What I mean by strong is very high in caffeine. I guess you might say I am looking for some weaker coffee.


Ask them to mix half regular and half decaf.
by John3754
Fri Aug 15, 2014 3:54 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who sells fresh coffee that is not as strong as Starbucks?
Replies: 50
Views: 2338

Re: VTSMX vs VTSAX

They're the exact same fund, the admiral shares just have a lower expense ratio, that's why they perform slightly better, because you're paying less for the same fund.
by John3754
Fri Aug 15, 2014 3:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTSMX vs VTSAX [Total Stock Market, Investor vs. Admiral]
Replies: 11
Views: 1192

Re: Who sells fresh coffee that is not as strong as Starbuck

rec7 wrote:True but when I am traveling I would like to find coffee that is not super strong. I have tried McDonald's but it to seems to be very strong maybe even stronger that Starbucks.


What do you mean by "strong"?
by John3754
Fri Aug 15, 2014 3:51 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who sells fresh coffee that is not as strong as Starbucks?
Replies: 50
Views: 2338

Re: Who sells fresh coffee that is not as strong as Starbuck

The supermarket. Bring the beans home and brew it however you like it. That or Dunkin Donuts, which a lot of people seem to like but personally I think is rancid.
by John3754
Fri Aug 15, 2014 3:45 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who sells fresh coffee that is not as strong as Starbucks?
Replies: 50
Views: 2338

Re: Do you hold cash/money market outside of your emergency

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
John3754 wrote:I do not, cash allocations are a drag on returns.


:o Especially when the market drops right?


Allow me to rephrase...cash allocations are most likely to be a drag on long term returns.

Better? :wink:
by John3754
Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you hold cash/money market outside of your emergency fund
Replies: 31
Views: 1978

Re: Do you hold cash/money market outside of your emergency

I do not, cash allocations are a drag on returns.
by John3754
Wed Aug 13, 2014 11:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you hold cash/money market outside of your emergency fund
Replies: 31
Views: 1978

Re: IRA Fees

I pay $0 in fees to have my IRA with Vanguard (other than the ERs of the funds themselves).
by John3754
Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: IRA Fees
Replies: 11
Views: 677

Re: Is the 401k 10% early withdrawal penalty worth it?

If you're not saving enough to max out all available tax advantaged space AND make a sizeable taxable contribution then you're probably not saving enough to retire early anyway, so the question is kind of irrelevant. Explain how 50k+ per year of retirement savings for the next 15-20 years is not en...
by John3754
Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:16 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is the 401k 10% early withdrawal penalty worth it?
Replies: 32
Views: 1455

Re: Is the 401k 10% early withdrawal penalty worth it?

If you're not saving enough to max out all available tax advantaged space AND make a sizeable taxable contribution then you're probably not saving enough to retire early anyway, so the question is kind of irrelevant.
by John3754
Wed Aug 13, 2014 10:52 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is the 401k 10% early withdrawal penalty worth it?
Replies: 32
Views: 1455

Re: Can I beat 0.8% money market with TIAA?

If you can tolerate the one year of non-liquidity then the I Bond is probably the best thing you're going to find.
by John3754
Tue Aug 12, 2014 11:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I beat 0.8% money market with TIAA?
Replies: 2
Views: 345

Re: Need for International Investing ?

We are arguing about whether the very best seats for a movie are in the precise center of the row, or whether there are advantages to being on the aisle that outweigh the advantages of being in the precise mathematical center. Everyone agrees that you can see the movie from any seat in the theatre....
by John3754
Mon Aug 11, 2014 9:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need for International Investing ?
Replies: 49
Views: 2628

Re: Instead of a CD Ladder

This is nothing more than an attempt at market timing, it may work, but it may also blow up in your face. Alot of people have been making moves like this for the past few years "because rates have nowhere to go but up" and they've lost out on returns because of it. You say "well what ...
by John3754
Mon Aug 11, 2014 5:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Instead of a CD Ladder
Replies: 26
Views: 4417

Re: Need for International Investing ?

Our best days are ahead of us...I am still bullish on America. I love America as much as the next guy, really I do, but this kind of sentiment is speculation at best. The American financial system nearly imploded upon it self just a few short years ago (my how soon we forget), and from what I can s...
by John3754
Mon Aug 11, 2014 9:42 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need for International Investing ?
Replies: 49
Views: 2628

Re: Need for International Investing ?

Our best days are ahead of us...I am still bullish on America. I love America as much as the next guy, really I do, but this kind of sentiment is speculation at best. The American financial system nearly imploded upon it self just a few short years ago (my how soon we forget), and from what I can s...
by John3754
Sun Aug 10, 2014 7:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need for International Investing ?
Replies: 49
Views: 2628

Re: 100% Total Stock Market in Roth Account?

Sounds like a reasonable plan.
by John3754
Sun Aug 10, 2014 5:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% Total Stock Market in Roth Account?
Replies: 7
Views: 803

Re: Need for International Investing ?

I would say or ask to the OP... do you feel holding the US market would give you good enough returns from the equity side of your portfolio going forward? If so,..... One could also ask..if you've been investing this way all along and change now, and it turns out that international outperforms US g...
by John3754
Sun Aug 10, 2014 1:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need for International Investing ?
Replies: 49
Views: 2628
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