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by John3754
Sun May 24, 2015 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 53
Views: 2813

Re: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

Stemikger can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe he's referring to Warren Buffett's definition of risk. Warren Buffett states that for long term investors, low volatility dollar denominated investments (bonds) are risker than volatile equity investments (stocks) because low volatility investment...
by John3754
Sun May 24, 2015 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advice from John Bogle and Warren Buffett
Replies: 35
Views: 2571

Re: Advice from John Bogle and Warren Buffett

Ok, invest around the world. I understand that but doesn`t the S&P 500 companies derive maybe half or more of their income from foreign entities? Maybe people over think too much and worry too much with investments and that is a detriment to them. Holding domestic corporations that derive profi...
by John3754
Sun May 24, 2015 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: please confirm: early retirement
Replies: 90
Views: 7077

Re: please confirm: early retirement

Retiring on $50K today at any age before 65 and Medicare is much more complicated than in the past. In todays market you need medical insurance that costs around $1K for a single person and $1.5K for a couple from what others here have said. Then you add on say $500 per year per person in actual me...
by John3754
Sat May 23, 2015 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I really need International equities in my portfolio ?
Replies: 42
Views: 2923

Re: Do I really need International equities in my portfolio ?

Your research has told you what international equities have done in the past, but has it told you what they'll do in the future?
by John3754
Sat May 23, 2015 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: please confirm: early retirement
Replies: 90
Views: 7077

Re: please confirm: early retirement

I think I know now not to ask Bogleheads if I can retire early when the time comes. If the OP can't retire given his financial situation, I don't know who can. Let me ask you, if he was 59 with the exact same circumstance do you think he would be in a better of worse position to retire? That may he...
by John3754
Sat May 23, 2015 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advice from John Bogle and Warren Buffett
Replies: 35
Views: 2571

Re: advice from John Bogle and Warren Buffett

What you're doing here is "Argument from authority", which is a classic logical fallacy. X is an authority on a particular topic X says something about that topic X is therefore correct Appealing to the position of an authority or authorities to dismiss evidence is an extremely weak argume...
by John3754
Fri May 22, 2015 7:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Questioning a dental hygienist ?
Replies: 14
Views: 1775

Re: Questioning a dental hygienist ?

Go somewhere else and get a second opinion.
by John3754
Thu May 21, 2015 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Friends/Family that don't invest!
Replies: 76
Views: 6943

Re: Friends/Family that don't invest!

I came to the conclusion a while ago that discussing finances with friends and family is generally not a great idea.
by John3754
Wed May 20, 2015 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would a nervous self investor be better off with Wellington Fund?
Replies: 16
Views: 1620

Re: Would a nervous self investor be better off with Wellington Fund?

Only if a 38% decline in NAV does not affect your state of mind. Wellington dropped that much in value during the 2009 debacle in March. However, it rebounded quite nicely along with the rest of the market. The key is not to panic. Let the managers "manage" the fund, all you have to do is...
by John3754
Wed May 20, 2015 1:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much does social security factor into your retirement income?
Replies: 161
Views: 9925

Re: How much does social security factor into your retirement income?

Doing absolutely nothing till the exhaustion of the SS trust funds and then still doing nothing still yields a system able to pay 70% of benefits. 1982 is a good historical reference as to what happens when benefits exceeded payroll income. Numerous levers were turned to increase contributions, rai...
by John3754
Sun May 17, 2015 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paying zero fees on a hand picked stock portfolio
Replies: 66
Views: 4023

Re: Paying zero fees on a hand picked stock portfolio

Can you define "lower P/E ratio"?
by John3754
Sat May 16, 2015 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much does social security factor into your retirement income?
Replies: 161
Views: 9925

Re: How much does social security factor into your retirement income?

I sometimes wonder if those who plan to retire in their late 40s to mid 50s understand the effect they will have on their SS benefit and the long term effect that can have on their retirement. It is very easy to look at your SS statement and think "Wow, I have a great benefit I don't need to c...
by John3754
Fri May 15, 2015 9:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much does social security factor into your retirement income?
Replies: 161
Views: 9925

Re: How much does social security factor into your retirement income?

We are relying now and expect to continue to rely heavily on Social Security as our largest single source of retirement income. We used the estimates in our Social Security statements long ago when we first began planning for retirement. Given our age and life expectancy, we have planned on the ass...
by John3754
Sun May 03, 2015 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need suggestions [for combining funds in Fidelity IRA]
Replies: 2
Views: 223

Re: Need suggestions

Sure, why not? The index fund is certainly cheaper.

In the absence of any additional information, there's not much more I can say about it.
by John3754
Sun May 03, 2015 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will you buy self-driving car?
Replies: 235
Views: 9266

Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

It'll surely cost far beyond what I'm willing to spend on a vehicle.
by John3754
Sun May 03, 2015 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't invest in something you don't understand."
Replies: 55
Views: 3451

Re: "Don't invest in something you don't understand."

Some people really don't understand anything (financial). They'll wake up one day and realize they don't really understand this 401k thing, and decide they've got to get their money out of it ASAP. There has to be better advice to give than "Don't invest in something you don't understand."...
by John3754
Sat May 02, 2015 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't invest in something you don't understand."
Replies: 55
Views: 3451

Re: "Don't invest in something you don't understand."

I see this quote often. "Don't invest in something you don't understand." I don't really understand the stock market. But I invest in it anyway. There's something really wrong with this saying. How can this saying be fixed so that it translates into sensible advice about how to invest? Th...
by John3754
Sat May 02, 2015 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't invest in something you don't understand."
Replies: 55
Views: 3451

Re: "Don't invest in something you don't understand."

]It seems to me that the answer is not to change the saying, but to learn more about the things you're investing in. I disagree with this. It's not practical to try to get everyone to understand everything about everything. While it's beneficial to be better informed, people need some way to make t...
by John3754
Sat May 02, 2015 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't invest in something you don't understand."
Replies: 55
Views: 3451

Re: "Don't invest in something you don't understand."

I see this quote often. "Don't invest in something you don't understand." I don't really understand the stock market. But I invest in it anyway. There's something really wrong with this saying. How can this saying be fixed so that it translates into sensible advice about how to invest? It...
by John3754
Fri May 01, 2015 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Stock Market Dividends (VTI)
Replies: 9
Views: 930

Re: Total Stock Market Dividends (VTI)

Here is more data from Vanguard's oldest S&P500 mutual fund (VFINX): 1980 -> 0.83 1990 -> 1.27 (+53.01%) 2000 -> 1.3 (+2.36%) 2010 -> 1.966 (+51.23%) Doesn't this limited data, in and of itself, demonstrate that you cannot reliably extrapolate what the dividend growth will be from decade to dec...
by John3754
Fri May 01, 2015 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P 500 foreign revenue at 50% - advice on impact of port.
Replies: 28
Views: 2428

Re: S&P 500 foreign revenue at 50% - advice on impact of por

Stemikger, did you read Mr Ferri's article? What is your opinion on his thoughts? I've posted this link in several of your threads on this subject and you always say you'll read it later but you've never posted a response.
by John3754
Thu Apr 30, 2015 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P 500 foreign revenue at 50% - advice on impact of port.
Replies: 28
Views: 2428

Re: S&P 500 foreign revenue at 50% - advice on impact of por

http://www.rickferri.com/blog/investmen ... -long-run/

Here's another perspective on the subject. Although international has some risks that domestic does not, including it can actually LOWER the risk of a portfolio overall, and provide higher risk adjusted returns.
by John3754
Wed Apr 29, 2015 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P 500 foreign revenue at 50% - advice on impact of port.
Replies: 28
Views: 2428

Re: S&P 500 foreign revenue at 50% - advice on impact of por

I wonder if the "Why do I need international?" and "You don't need international!" threads will disappear if international crushes domestic this year.

Come to think of it, it seems as if most of them HAVE disappeared over the last few weeks...I wonder why that might be?
by John3754
Tue Apr 28, 2015 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retirement with 401(k)'s and IRA's
Replies: 16
Views: 2005

Re: Early Retirement with 401(k)'s and IRA's

Thank you everyone! These are great things to consider as we plan our investment allocations between tax sheltered and taxable accounts. I appreciate it. Money is fungible, so if you need to fund your spending by withdrawing from your portfolio from age 49 to 59.5, what difference does it make whic...
by John3754
Mon Apr 27, 2015 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retirement with 401(k)'s and IRA's
Replies: 16
Views: 2005

Re: Early Retirement with 401(k)'s and IRA's

SaraSV wrote:If we truly retire at 49 then wouldn't we be taking big hits on the principal of our taxable accounts as we wait for 59.5?


Money is fungible, so if you need to fund your spending by withdrawing from your portfolio from age 49 to 59.5, what difference does it make which account the money comes from?
by John3754
Mon Apr 27, 2015 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's holding cash?
Replies: 86
Views: 6490

Re: Who's holding cash?

If you stay in cash and the market continues to go up then what do you do?
by John3754
Sun Apr 26, 2015 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help - Am I being stupid?
Replies: 16
Views: 1514

Re: Help - Am I being stupid?

What is your employment situation like? If its stable then I'd say yes, you are being stupid.
by John3754
Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Loaning $$ [to a friend]
Replies: 22
Views: 2099

Re: Loaning $$

Gbean wrote:Any ideas?


Yes, don't do it.
by John3754
Fri Apr 24, 2015 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Concentrated Bet ... not bad after all ?
Replies: 6
Views: 618

Re: Concentrated Bet ... not bad after all ?

Don't confuse outcome with strategy.
by John3754
Thu Apr 23, 2015 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for emerging markets fund
Replies: 14
Views: 821

Re: Looking for emerging markets fund

I'm in Target 2045, which includes the total international, so I guess I do have emerging markets? I only have around 5400 there. My TIAA CREF employer accounts offer the International Equity active fund that lists Asia Emerging as 10.22% and Latin America as 0.32%. So overall my emerging markets i...
by John3754
Tue Apr 21, 2015 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great little interview with John Bogle
Replies: 23
Views: 2281

Re: Great little interview with John Bogle

http://www.rickferri.com/blog/investmen ... -long-run/

Rick Ferri on why foreign stocks should be a part of your portfolio.
by John3754
Mon Apr 20, 2015 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone changed their asset allocation
Replies: 58
Views: 3560

Re: Has anyone changed their asset allocation

Aren't you the person who was just arguing that we shouldn't even be looking at our investments for years at a time? No, I was just putting out what Jack said about not peeking. I wouldn't call it arguing. And I was talking about the market going up. If you are invested in the 500 Index, you know y...
by John3754
Mon Apr 20, 2015 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone changed their asset allocation
Replies: 58
Views: 3560

Re: Has anyone changed their asset allocation

Aren't you the person who was just arguing that we shouldn't even be looking at our investments for years at a time?
by John3754
Sun Apr 19, 2015 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new i-bond rate?
Replies: 28
Views: 4745

Re: new i-bond rate?

JimInIllinois wrote:The real mystery is the fixed rate on i-bonds sold starting May 1.


If it's anything other than 0% I'll be surprised.
by John3754
Sat Apr 18, 2015 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge
Replies: 149
Views: 13480

Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

Benign neglect with the Total Stock Market Index Fund isn`t a bad idea at all. Where will the Dow and S&P 500 be in twenty years? Most likely a lot higher. John Bogle`s idea of no looking sure takes care of the emotional part of investing and we know what emotion does to your returns. I underst...
by John3754
Fri Apr 17, 2015 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge
Replies: 149
Views: 13480

Re: John Bogle's Don't Peek Challenge

You're taking his advice way too literally Not after viewing the video. I previously thought he was making the comment in a off-hand manner. This don't peek video came off as a serious "rule" which he repeated over and over. If you are saying don't even open the envelope until you retire ...
by John3754
Fri Apr 17, 2015 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks are on sale, should I buy?
Replies: 54
Views: 5953

Re: Stocks are on sale, should I buy?

If you call this "taking a hit", what are you going to say when something real occurs, like a 30+% decline?

To me this is just normal background noise.
by John3754
Tue Apr 14, 2015 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Combing Vanguard funds to purchase individual stocks
Replies: 18
Views: 1013

Re: Combing Vanguard funds to purchase individual stocks

Use a money market as a sweep account, not an index fund.
by John3754
Tue Apr 14, 2015 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wellesley for Emergency Fund
Replies: 6
Views: 997

Re: Wellesley for Emergency Fund

I'd be concerned about tax efficiency. That said, for $9k, it probably doesn't really matter much what you do with it.
by John3754
Sun Apr 12, 2015 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I be doing something differently?
Replies: 14
Views: 1536

Re: Should I be doing something differently?

CDs are a good option for safe money.
by John3754
Sun Apr 12, 2015 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: gold bullion
Replies: 16
Views: 915

Re: gold bullion

Gleops2 wrote: There is a 28% federal tax on the difference between what you "paid" ( or inherited them at-that will establish basis) if you make a profit.


Incorrect, it's taxed at your marginal rate up to a MAXIMUM of 28%.
by John3754
Thu Apr 09, 2015 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hypothetical End Game Scenario w/ 5M retirement account
Replies: 74
Views: 7583

Re: Hypothetical End Game Scenario w/ 5M retirement account

Let's say you hit the low end of your target, $15M, at a 4% withdrawal that's $600k/year. What is it exactly that you're afraid of?
by John3754
Thu Apr 09, 2015 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hypothetical End Game Scenario w/ 5M retirement account
Replies: 74
Views: 7583

Re: Hypothetical End Game Scenario w/ 5M retirement account

These are good responses. I think the answer lies more within happiness in life than needing a certain amount of money to say F everyone and do whatever you want. Thanks for sharing I guess I don't understand your point. You save $5M, you retire, and your plan is to withdraw 4% a year, in other wor...
by John3754
Thu Apr 09, 2015 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hypothetical End Game Scenario w/ 5M retirement account
Replies: 74
Views: 7583

Re: Hypothetical End Game Scenario w/ 5M retirement account

4% of $5M is $200k a year. That's not enough?
by John3754
Thu Apr 09, 2015 6:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I still add to my Roth IRA for 2014?
Replies: 10
Views: 645

Re: Can I still add to my Roth IRA for 2014?

Yes, you can contribute for 2014 until April 15th 2015.

Also, you need a new accountant.
by John3754
Thu Apr 09, 2015 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Investing
Replies: 65
Views: 4447

Re: International Investing

I agree, and my impression is that so do most (but not all) people on this forum.

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