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Re: how to make money like a billionaire

ArthurO, You keep saying that CDs never lose principal, but in your other post you said you plan on buying a 10 year brokered CD, which can and will lose principal if/when rates rise. Care to comment on this inconsistency in your argument?
by John3754
Thu Nov 20, 2014 11:53 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to make money like a billionaire
Replies: 109
Views: 7970

Re: how to make money like a billionaire

...don't confuse bond funds with CDs, bond funds although relatively safe do lose money, CDs never will lose their principal value, the only problem is rampant inflation and that's why you build a ladder with at least annual renewal... You posted recently about how you were thinking about buying a ...
by John3754
Thu Nov 20, 2014 8:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to make money like a billionaire
Replies: 109
Views: 7970

Re: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable fut

great, now jack bogle can predict future returns? I find this to be a good guess at best. In fairness, Jack Bogle is always very cautious to explain that what he is offering is just a reasonable estimate not a forecast or a prediction. He uses estimated long term earnings growth and the current div...
by John3754
Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:20 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: expect 7% annualized for the foreseeable future
Replies: 42
Views: 5958

Re: Investing In Currency?

Is this investing, or speculation?
by John3754
Tue Nov 18, 2014 11:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing In Currency?
Replies: 33
Views: 1937

Re: VWAHX

Nope.
by John3754
Mon Nov 17, 2014 7:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWAHX [Vanguard High-Yield Tax-Exempt Fund]
Replies: 6
Views: 886

Re: VWINX (Wellesley Inc.)

Wellesley is a fine fund, but the drawbacks compared to the three fund portfolio, in my opinion, are that its less diversified, it has manager risk, you're stuck with the asset allocation they choose, and it would not be tax efficient in a taxable account. I would ask you the opposite question, what...
by John3754
Sun Nov 16, 2014 9:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWINX (Wellesley Inc.)
Replies: 44
Views: 4795

Re: Investing in IPOs / Risks, Warnings?

The participants have so far spoken of the large potential gains, indicating that only the initial capital is at risk. I like that..."only the initial capital is at risk"...in other words the "only" risk is that you lose all of the money you put into it. That seems like a fairly...
by John3754
Sun Nov 16, 2014 5:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in IPOs / Risks, Warnings?
Replies: 10
Views: 618

Re: Active or Not, I Love Wellington

Well it is another great year for Wellington (up 8.98% YTD ER 0.18% Admiral). To me this fund continues to demonstrate active management with low fees can work. Seriously is there any legit reason to avoid this fund with its very long history of success? People have said the same thing about many o...
by John3754
Sun Nov 16, 2014 12:41 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active or Not, I Love Wellington
Replies: 53
Views: 5018

Re: Active or Not, I Love Wellington

I can think of a couple of reasons: I don't want a large cap value tilt, I don't want manger risk, it complicates rebalancing b/c it contains both stocks and bonds, and most of my investments are taxable and it would be less tax efficient.
by John3754
Sun Nov 16, 2014 11:57 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active or Not, I Love Wellington
Replies: 53
Views: 5018

Re: is 3.20% Vanguard brokered CD best deal around?

JamesSFO wrote:...PenFed will probably do its rate specials in December...


One can only hope...
by John3754
Sat Nov 15, 2014 8:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is 3.20% Vanguard brokered CD best deal around?
Replies: 48
Views: 4127

Re: is 3.20% Vanguard brokered CD best deal around?

I haven't seen anything with a higher rate than that, but 10 years is a long time, a lot can happen in the markets in 10 years.
by John3754
Sat Nov 15, 2014 6:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is 3.20% Vanguard brokered CD best deal around?
Replies: 48
Views: 4127

Re: Gold And Silver As A Currency Hedge?

Fiat currencies come and go but gold is forever. Gold doesn't rust or corrode and has a feel to it like no other metal. Gold doesn't need trust or faith to give it value and it can't be printed. What other commodity could replace gold for a world wide unite of exchange? People want gold yesterday, ...
by John3754
Sat Nov 15, 2014 4:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gold And Silver As A Currency Hedge?
Replies: 125
Views: 8864

Re: Gold And Silver As A Currency Hedge?

Uncle Pennybags wrote:The first country's currency that is tied to gold will replace the dollar as THE reserve currency.


And you're basing this opinion on what information exactly?
by John3754
Sat Nov 15, 2014 10:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Gold And Silver As A Currency Hedge?
Replies: 125
Views: 8864

Re: Why own International at all?

Diversification.
by John3754
Fri Nov 14, 2014 7:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why own International at all?
Replies: 45
Views: 3954

Re: Expenses are ??

It means the more fees and taxes (aka expenses) you pay for your investments the worse your return is likely to be.
by John3754
Fri Nov 14, 2014 5:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expenses are ??
Replies: 11
Views: 1548

Re: How Do You Use the VIX (Fear & Greed Index)?

I don't, it's noise and I ignore it.
by John3754
Thu Nov 13, 2014 8:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Use the VIX (Fear & Greed Index)?
Replies: 15
Views: 1087

Re: 30% In International Stocks?

There's no correct answer to this question, opinions vary, but 30% is perfectly reasonable in my opinion. Jack Bogle recommends 0-20%, Vanguard recommend 20-40%, many recommend up to the market cap weight which is 50%, I myself currently have 40%. Nobody can tell the future so nobody knows which all...
by John3754
Wed Nov 12, 2014 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 30% In International Stocks?
Replies: 53
Views: 4621

Re: Long Term Investing

If you don't what will you do with the money instead? What does your IPS say about this?
by John3754
Wed Nov 12, 2014 1:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long Term Investing
Replies: 11
Views: 1142

Re: Mr Bogle - 20x p/e warning

People are very quick to over interpret things, Bogle saying that valuations are high, or as stated in the article, "the market is on the high side", is not the same thing as him saying "The P/E has hit 20 so now is the time to dump your stocks!". This is not market timing, it's ...
by John3754
Mon Nov 10, 2014 10:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr Bogle - 20x p/e warning
Replies: 22
Views: 3172

Re: What if....?

What if...people wrote more descriptive thread titles?

To answer your question...I would follow my IPS, rebalance if necessary, and stay the course with my chosen asset allocation.

What would you do?
by John3754
Mon Nov 10, 2014 5:06 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What if your investable assets rise significantly?
Replies: 19
Views: 1989

Re: Do IBonds make sense living in a high inflation area

I might have missed it but one thing that I have not seen mentioned was that with the current low interest rates and the way the inflation component of the IBond is taxed that you will likely lose purchasing power if you hold them for several decades. True, but can you name a better alternative tha...
by John3754
Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do IBonds make sense living in a high inflation area
Replies: 30
Views: 2703

Re: Whats the best index?

A total US stock market index offers more diversification than an S&P500 index, they track very closely though. If you added an extended market index to the S&P500 index you'd have all the holdings in the total market index. For further diversification you could add a total international sto...
by John3754
Sun Nov 09, 2014 3:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats the best index?
Replies: 14
Views: 1570

Re: Do IBonds make sense living in a high inflation area

How valuable that is depends on how predictable inflation is. For the past several decades--the entire time investors have been alive--we have had inflation that has been a) low, b) steady, and c) about the same as what has been expected. During this period of time, then, there has not been much va...
by John3754
Sat Nov 08, 2014 6:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do IBonds make sense living in a high inflation area
Replies: 30
Views: 2703

Re: when will self-driving cars be a reality?

Self driving on the highway - 5-10 years. Totally self-driving everywhere - 20+ years. A self-driving car with a 5% error rate might literally prove fatal. A self-driving car with a 5% error rate will prove fatal. A self-driving car needs to have a 0.001% error rate or better. interesting takes. Ho...
by John3754
Sat Nov 08, 2014 4:18 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: when will self-driving cars be a reality?
Replies: 17
Views: 1046

Re: when will self-driving cars be a reality?

Not in your lifetime.
by John3754
Sat Nov 08, 2014 3:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: when will self-driving cars be a reality?
Replies: 17
Views: 1046

Re: Do IBonds make sense living in a high inflation area

hoops777 wrote:I do not see a better alternative in terms of risk so I my plan has been to continue to buy them,unless someone has a better option on the amazing boglehead forum :happy


Yup, that's my point, personally I don't think I bonds are perfect, but for what they provide I don't see a better alternative.
by John3754
Sat Nov 08, 2014 2:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do IBonds make sense living in a high inflation area
Replies: 30
Views: 2703

Re: Do IBonds make sense living in a high inflation area

If you didn't buy I bonds with the money what would you do with it instead?
by John3754
Sat Nov 08, 2014 1:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do IBonds make sense living in a high inflation area
Replies: 30
Views: 2703

Re: International Stock Index Potential

nelson1015 wrote:Considering this logic should I buy me some GDX too?


Apples to oranges. A broadly diversified low cost index fund vs an actively managed high expense sector fund.
by John3754
Sat Nov 08, 2014 9:47 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock Index Potential
Replies: 17
Views: 1613

Re: International Stock Index Potential

The clues are in dollar index Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index. Because of currency strength, the gains in international are dwarfed. Also, this impacts large vs small cap inversely. Small caps rely more on local currency sales. Explain the VSS relative performance to total international. Apples to oran...
by John3754
Sat Nov 08, 2014 9:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock Index Potential
Replies: 17
Views: 1613

Re: International Stock Index Potential

Post Deleted.
by John3754
Fri Nov 07, 2014 5:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock Index Potential
Replies: 17
Views: 1613

Re: International Stock Index Potential

nelson1015 wrote:I'm in VGTSX and it kind of has been cheap.


There I fixed that for you.
by John3754
Fri Nov 07, 2014 4:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock Index Potential
Replies: 17
Views: 1613

Re: International Stock Index Potential

The upside potential for equity funds is theoretically unlimited.
by John3754
Fri Nov 07, 2014 2:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock Index Potential
Replies: 17
Views: 1613

Re: Cash - Throw it on the table!

2 months expenses in the checking account and $20 in my pocket.
by John3754
Wed Nov 05, 2014 10:52 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 51
Views: 3733

Re: Investment strategy question

For 8 weeks, I wouldn't bother.
by John3754
Tue Nov 04, 2014 11:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment strategy question
Replies: 3
Views: 346

Re: iBonds at zero % fixed

[OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek] Personally I like I Bonds and purchase them yearly...however, if someone really thinks that $10k of I bonds purchased today is going to be equal to $10k in 2014 dollars when they cash them in 30 years from now...well, they're kidding themselves. Two factors......
by John3754
Tue Nov 04, 2014 11:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iBonds at zero % fixed
Replies: 84
Views: 8866

Re: iBonds at zero % fixed

imgritz wrote:I know the mechanics of ibonds. Fixed and variable interest rates. Returns as good as inflation. Tax free interest.


The interest on I bonds is not tax free, its tax deferred.
by John3754
Tue Nov 04, 2014 11:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iBonds at zero % fixed
Replies: 84
Views: 8866

Re: Oil and or Metals?

The positive is it may provide a diversification benefit, assuming that you can stick with it through the high volatility and possible decades of underperformance.
by John3754
Tue Nov 04, 2014 9:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil and or Metals?
Replies: 19
Views: 1165

Re: Christine Benz Interviews Bill Bernstein

If you want gold just invest in gold itself. Gold or shares backed by the metal are taxed as collectibles at 28%. Here http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-21/gold-etf-sellers-facing-tax-surprises-at-28-gains-rate.html False. Short term gains are taxed as regular income, long term gains are taxed ...
by John3754
Tue Nov 04, 2014 8:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Christine Benz Interviews Bill Bernstein
Replies: 33
Views: 3847

Re: Netflix: how long broken?

I tried early tonight and was having problems, I logged off and logged back on and then it worked fine.
by John3754
Mon Nov 03, 2014 11:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Netflix: how long broken?
Replies: 13
Views: 2141

Re: What's worrying Vanguard's CEO

So what can I do about it?
by John3754
Mon Nov 03, 2014 5:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's worrying Vanguard's CEO
Replies: 14
Views: 2765

Re: VGuard Index Fund Portfolio Q

Fritch wrote:I also see the US outlook to be very positive for at least the next 5 years.


Based on?
by John3754
Mon Nov 03, 2014 4:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGuard Index Fund Portfolio Q
Replies: 7
Views: 828

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund

cfs wrote:This is what you are getting with this fund.

YTD= -15.67%
1 yr= -19.03%
5 yr= -10.30%
10yr= +01.28%
30yr= +04.16%

Like it? Go for it.


One should not choose funds based on past performance.
by John3754
Sun Nov 02, 2014 12:58 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund
Replies: 47
Views: 3398

Re: Bonds: Percentage or Absolute Dollar Amount

How would you feel about the fact that over time the volatility of your portfolio would increase? My thought, correct or incorrect, is the effects of volatility descrease in relationship to the size of your secure liquid assets whether they be investments such as CDs and bonds or predictable income...
by John3754
Sat Nov 01, 2014 12:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds: Percentage or Absolute Dollar Amount
Replies: 11
Views: 562

Re: Bonds: Percentage or Absolute Dollar Amount

How would you feel about the fact that over time the volatility of your portfolio would increase? My thought, correct or incorrect, is the effects of volatility descrease in relationship to the size of your secure liquid assets whether they be investments such as CDs and bonds or predictable income...
by John3754
Sat Nov 01, 2014 12:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds: Percentage or Absolute Dollar Amount
Replies: 11
Views: 562

Re: Bonds: Percentage or Absolute Dollar Amount

How would you feel about the fact that over time the volatility of your portfolio would increase?
by John3754
Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds: Percentage or Absolute Dollar Amount
Replies: 11
Views: 562

Re: Short term reserve question.

Money market mutual funds are useless as savings vehicles at this point in time in my opinion.
by John3754
Fri Oct 31, 2014 6:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short term reserve question.
Replies: 22
Views: 1435

Re: Should I buy more REITs?

You need a more solid plan so you're not constantly second guessing yourself and coming on here and asking "should I buy more X?", the process needs to be more mechanical.
by John3754
Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I buy more REITs?
Replies: 45
Views: 5051

Re: BND or a CD

obgyn65 wrote:I much prefer CDs.


Why?
by John3754
Thu Oct 30, 2014 7:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BND or a CD
Replies: 119
Views: 9536

Re: Speculaition on Crude Oil/The Euro/and Silver

Pork belly, coffee, and frozen concentrated OJ...always buy these BEFORE breakfast time though, NOT after!
by John3754
Thu Oct 30, 2014 2:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Speculaition on Crude Oil/The Euro/and Silver
Replies: 15
Views: 1002

Re: Roth IRA Emergency Fund Assest Choices

How would you feel if you needed the money and the fund was down say...4%?
by John3754
Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA Emergency Fund Assest Choices
Replies: 6
Views: 755
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