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Re: Should market valuations be completely disregarded?

Valuations matter, but there's nothing I can do about them. I consider it much like the price of gasoline...the price of gasoline matters to me, but I still have to fill my tank so I can drive to work regardless of the price. Well, sort of. It depends on how much the price of gas goes up: 2x Time t...
by John3754
Tue Jul 22, 2014 5:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should market valuations be completely disregarded?
Replies: 21
Views: 1215

Re: Should market valuations be completely disregarded?

Valuations matter, but there's nothing I can do about them. I consider it much like the price of gasoline...the price of gasoline matters to me, but I still have to fill my tank so I can drive to work regardless of the price.
by John3754
Tue Jul 22, 2014 4:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should market valuations be completely disregarded?
Replies: 21
Views: 1215

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

selftalk wrote:Don`t look now but the gold, silver and copper train is leaving the station.


Looks like your train has stalled.
by John3754
Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 85
Views: 4329

Re: Can it be wrong to be too risk averse?

Yes it is definitely possible to be too risk averse, the danger being that your savings will be crushed by inflation over the decades.
by John3754
Mon Jul 21, 2014 11:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can it be wrong to be too risk averse?
Replies: 49
Views: 2213

Re: Reverse Savings Rates

I simply save 100% of my raises, rather than inflating my lifestyle. Keeps my expenses in check, and accelerates my savings, makes sense to me.
by John3754
Mon Jul 21, 2014 11:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reverse Savings Rates
Replies: 5
Views: 773

Re: how often do you look at your account

I look quarterly and rebalance twice a year.
by John3754
Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: how often do you look at your account
Replies: 70
Views: 3512

Re: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity

Suppose you had, as part of your AA, some stipulation that when the market topped... Heyolshan, executing a market timing opportunity plan successfully seems to be dependent on knowing when the market has "topped", can you explain exactly how one goes about doing this? Many people predict...
by John3754
Sat Jul 19, 2014 11:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity
Replies: 46
Views: 2880

Re: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity

Heyolshan wrote:Suppose you had, as part of your AA, some stipulation that when the market topped, you backed off of stock holdings, and when it went lower you went back in.


How do I know when the market is topping?
by John3754
Fri Jul 18, 2014 7:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity
Replies: 46
Views: 2880

Re: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity

I'm talking about taking some portion of your money out of the market while stocks are at an all-time high, on the chance that the market will drop when QE3 ends. And what happens if you're wrong? What if you pull a large chunk of cash out of the market, QE ends, and the market doesn't drop...then ...
by John3754
Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity
Replies: 46
Views: 2880

Re: Relatively safe investment for large sum

sdsailing wrote:Consider vanguard wellesley.


Not tax efficient.
by John3754
Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively safe investment for large sum
Replies: 43
Views: 3175

Re: Relatively safe investment for large sum

Someone at work just recommends looking into 2020 target fund. What do you guys think about that? I think thats a terrible idea. The vanguard equivalent is 65% stock, that's risky for money you want to have at least 90% of in 5 years. Note that the allocation of a 2020 target fund does not assume t...
by John3754
Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively safe investment for large sum
Replies: 43
Views: 3175

Re: Relatively safe investment for large sum

VWAHX has an SEC yield of 2.93% and an average duration of 6.2 years. Any takers on that given the OPs criteria?
by John3754
Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively safe investment for large sum
Replies: 43
Views: 3175

Re: But why not 100% stock index fund?

I tell everyone young to go full blown into stock index funds. It is a win-win situation. If the market goes up, I look like a genius. If the market goes down, I have entry points to lower my cost basis with continuous DCA buying. What if they take your advice, "go full blown into stocks"...
by John3754
Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: But why not 100% stock index fund?
Replies: 76
Views: 6962

Re: But why not 100% stock index fund?

Right now, my retirement money (not my emergency funds) is invested in 100% US stock index funds. During the down markets of 2000 and 2008, my retirement funds were invested in 100% US stock index funds. 40 years from now, my retirement money (not my emergency funds) will be invested in US stock in...
by John3754
Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: But why not 100% stock index fund?
Replies: 76
Views: 6962

Re: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old

2) there are no guarantees that stocks rebound after any amount of time. This. It seems to me that a lot of people don't understand what equity risk truly means. I see far too many people say things like "I'm 100% stocks because I'm very risk tolerant and I know that if stocks crash it'll all ...
by John3754
Tue Jul 15, 2014 10:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old
Replies: 85
Views: 6128

Re: But why not 100% stock index fund?

Right now, my retirement money (not my emergency funds) is invested in 100% US stock index funds. During the down markets of 2000 and 2008, my retirement funds were invested in 100% US stock index funds. 40 years from now, my retirement money (not my emergency funds) will be invested in US stock in...
by John3754
Tue Jul 15, 2014 12:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: But why not 100% stock index fund?
Replies: 76
Views: 6962

Re: I'm cosigner .. Friend thinking of bankruptcy .. Pls hel

newboggler wrote:I am thinking of paying off auto loan and getting verbal agreement with friend to pay me back like a loan...


Good luck with that one...my guess is that you'd never see that money again.
by John3754
Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm cosigner .. Friend thinking of bankruptcy .. Pls help
Replies: 64
Views: 7219

Re: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old

...bonds look poised to do nothing or decrease in value over the next 2 decades or so. Plus we have a lot of cash reserves so it's easier to justify the risk. Which do you think is going to do worse over the next two decades, bonds or your large cash reserves? This kind of rationalization "it'...
by John3754
Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old
Replies: 85
Views: 6128

Re: [Poll] How often do you re-balance?

I update my spreadsheet every 6 months and rebalance if outside of my bands.
by John3754
Mon Jul 14, 2014 11:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] How often do you re-balance?
Replies: 25
Views: 2187

Re: But why not 100% stock index fund?

Currently I'm at 92% at age 46 ...after 2000 I switched all the money outside of retirement acct's into cd's, I bonds and high yield savings acct's which is approx 25% of my financial worth. If 25% of your net worth is in CDs, I Bonds and savings then your AA is not 92% stocks...unless I'm reading ...
by John3754
Sun Jul 13, 2014 9:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: But why not 100% stock index fund?
Replies: 76
Views: 6962

Re: But why not 100% stock index fund?

Heyolshan wrote:...with the caveat that when you near retirement you need to begin moving some portion of it into a less volatile investment or cash.


How near retirement should one be before moving out of 100% stocks? 1 year? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? Where do you draw the line?
by John3754
Sun Jul 13, 2014 6:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: But why not 100% stock index fund?
Replies: 76
Views: 6962

Re: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old

For me, a major market downturn would be scary... If I lost $50,000, $60,000, or $90,000 overnight, so what? So which is it, would a major market down turn scare you, or would you say "so what"? You say you have $100,000 now, what if you had $300,000 and lost $150,000...or what if you had...
by John3754
Sun Jul 13, 2014 5:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old
Replies: 85
Views: 6128

Re: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old

But would only seeing 80% of my portfolio evaporate, instead of 100%, make much of a difference? I mean, if I'm going to panic, sell, and screw everything up, wouldn't I do it in either scenario? Well, presumably if you had 80%-100% in stocks then you wouldn't see 80%-100% of your portfolio evapora...
by John3754
Sun Jul 13, 2014 3:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old
Replies: 85
Views: 6128

Re: Investing is starting to get boring

You've mentioned here that your portfolio is 100% stock, so rest assured that eventually things will indeed get "exciting" for you, nobody knows when though.
by John3754
Sun Jul 13, 2014 2:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing is starting to get boring
Replies: 39
Views: 3840

Re: 15 vs 30 yr fixed, or 5/1 ARM

Why would you take the 30 year and pay a higher rate when you're going to make the payememt as if it's a 15 year?
by John3754
Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 15 vs 30 yr fixed, or 5/1 ARM
Replies: 16
Views: 1435

Re: Suggestions for 1-2 Days in NYC?

livesoft wrote:There are no locals in NYC. Everybody there is from someplace else. Just listen to the chatter on the streets. Rarely will you hear any English.


[OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek]
by John3754
Tue Jun 24, 2014 1:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suggestions for 1-2 Days in NYC?
Replies: 51
Views: 3024

Re: Would you change stock allocation based on market condit

I voted: "Never no matter what the market is doing." Best wishes. Taylor I recently saw some posts you made during the depths of the 2008 crash where you stated multiple times that you were contemplating selling out of the stock market because you could not tolerate any more losses. Can y...
by John3754
Mon Jun 23, 2014 8:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you change stock allocation based on market conditions
Replies: 37
Views: 1765

Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Your "system" is based on the gamblers fallacy, it is the most common logical fallacy made by those who think they've figured out a way to beat the casino. If I flip a coin 4 times and each time it lands on heads, is the 5th flip more likely to land on tails than heads because of the resul...
by John3754
Mon Jun 23, 2014 8:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help devising winning roulette system
Replies: 72
Views: 3088

Re: Retirement Goal Calculation

25x projected annual expenses is a good starting point.
by John3754
Sun Jun 22, 2014 10:59 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Goal Calculation
Replies: 31
Views: 4104

Re: I Bonds 5.27% interest

Julieta wrote:I see I undervalued that IBond!


I Bonds are the closest thing out there to a free lunch in my opinion. Guaranteed principal, tax deferred, inflation adjusted, state/local tax exempt, totally liquid after the first year...where else can you find something like that?
by John3754
Sat Jun 21, 2014 8:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds 5.27% interest
Replies: 33
Views: 3657

Re: Suggestions for 1-2 Days in NYC?

But one is not going to be eating 24/7 on a trip. One is going to be in a particular part of the city, get hungry and need to eat. They are going to look around on their smart phone for something within a couple of blocks, find it, and go there. Obviously not a foodie. Every city I go to anywhere i...
by John3754
Fri Jun 20, 2014 7:26 am
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suggestions for 1-2 Days in NYC?
Replies: 51
Views: 3024

Re: Retirees: Equity holdings of 90%+

any circumstances that would lead you to change Probably a big market correction (30%+) So a big correction would probably cause you to change your asset allocation, yet you don't see a problem with your current allocation of 100% equities? If a bear market caused your portfolio to lose 30+% of it'...
by John3754
Wed Jun 18, 2014 4:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: Equity holdings of 90%+
Replies: 14
Views: 1614

Re: The usefulness of experts

I can't believe that people actually get paid, and probably paid well, to make these market predictions, the work they produce is not actionable in any way.
by John3754
Tue Jun 10, 2014 9:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The usefulness of experts
Replies: 23
Views: 1732

Re: 1.1 million Americans joined 2 comma club in 2013

The market giveth, and the market can taketh away.
by John3754
Tue Jun 10, 2014 3:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1.1 million Americans joined 2 comma club in 2013
Replies: 11
Views: 1366

Re: Apple looks interesting right now

What's so interesting about it?
by John3754
Tue Jun 10, 2014 10:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Apple looks interesting right now
Replies: 35
Views: 2387

Re: What are you doing with the market at an all time high?

Kersten wrote:What are Bogleheads doing with the market at an all time high?...Are Bogleheads gambling or risk taking?


Bogleheads are following their IPS, nothing more, nothing less.
by John3754
Sun Jun 08, 2014 7:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What are you doing with the market at an all time high?
Replies: 95
Views: 6503

Re: Counterfit Bitcoins

Thread title fail.
by John3754
Fri Jun 06, 2014 2:57 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Counterfit Bitcoins
Replies: 4
Views: 358

Re: Confession: I bought a stock. What is wrong with me?

fredflinstone wrote:If anyone cares, which I doubt, this stock is up nearly 20% since I bought it. I don't think this proves anything, but there it is.

Correction: it's up about 16%.


What did the S&P500 do over that same time period?
by John3754
Fri Jun 06, 2014 10:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Confession: I bought a stock. What is wrong with me?
Replies: 56
Views: 4199

Re: VTMGX vs. VTIAX [Vanguard Developed Markets vs. Total In

VTIAX is developed markets plus emerging markets, VTMGX is just developed markets.
by John3754
Tue Jun 03, 2014 10:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTMGX vs. VTIAX [Vanguard Developed Markets vs. Total Int'l]
Replies: 8
Views: 562

Re: Where to Put Emergency Fund?

I-Bonds cannot be taken out at all within the first year if an emergency occurs, so I do not recommend them. I Bonds are great for emergency funds in my opinion, but you do need to work around the 1 year restriction so you can't simply dump the entire thing in all at once. Here's an example of how ...
by John3754
Mon Jun 02, 2014 10:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to Put Emergency Fund?
Replies: 18
Views: 1859

Best books for beginning investors.

Which books would you recommend as the best starting point for someone who knows absolutely nothing about investing but is eager to learn?
by John3754
Mon Jun 02, 2014 5:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best books for beginning investors.
Replies: 7
Views: 498

Re: Need Advice on Retiring at 50

You're asking if $16.5M is enough to retire on? If the answer is no then a lot of us are in trouble.

$250k out of $16.5M is a 1.5% withdrawal rate, which should be sustainable indefinitely.
by John3754
Sun Jun 01, 2014 11:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Advice on Retiring at 50
Replies: 8
Views: 1201

Re: Alarm Clock

Barefootgirl wrote:The Google assist is appreciated but even better are recommendations from actual users (hence my post to the community)>

I will go to Amazon, hope the user reviews are real there, LOL

BFG


Sorry I know it is not super helpful but I just couldn't help myself :D
by John3754
Thu May 29, 2014 9:15 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Alarm Clock
Replies: 30
Views: 2282

Re: Alarm Clock

[OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek]
by John3754
Thu May 29, 2014 8:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Alarm Clock
Replies: 30
Views: 2282

Re: Large Amount in Personal Savings - scared to invest

I should have explained myself better - I'm not just looking for zero risk options, I'm not necessarily THAT risk averse. I'm willing to be convinced about lower risk market options, I'm just not familiar with them. How much risk are you willing to take? How much of a decline in the value of your p...
by John3754
Thu May 29, 2014 7:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large Amount in Personal Savings - scared to invest
Replies: 48
Views: 5145

Re: Large Amount in Personal Savings - scared to invest

CDs are about your only option if you don't want to take on any market risk.
by John3754
Wed May 28, 2014 11:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large Amount in Personal Savings - scared to invest
Replies: 48
Views: 5145
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