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Re: Help with Bonds

Stillwater45 wrote:He says he is more weary of bonds than stocks in current environment.


I wouldn't let someone who said this advise me on where to buy a cup of coffee, never mind where to invest my life savings.

Also, it's wary or leery, not weary.
by John3754
Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Bonds
Replies: 7
Views: 351

Re: Est. medical costs early retirement.

BigFoot48 wrote:$30,000 a year for two seems extremely high.


Unless I'm mistaken I think the OP meant $30k a year for their entire yearly living expenses, not just health insurance.
by John3754
Fri Aug 01, 2014 6:56 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Est. medical costs early retirement.
Replies: 19
Views: 1496

Re: How Much Did You Lose Today?

island wrote:Curious to know what those who chose it, define a bloodbath? Or anyone else?


If someone really feels that a 2% drop in equities is a "bloodbath", what are they going to think if/when there's a 20% drop?
by John3754
Thu Jul 31, 2014 11:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Much Did You Lose Today?
Replies: 128
Views: 7401

Re: How Much Did You Lose Today?

No idea how much my portfolio is down because I don't care and didn't look. Even if it is down, I lost nothing because I sold nothing.
by John3754
Thu Jul 31, 2014 10:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How Much Did You Lose Today?
Replies: 128
Views: 7401

Re: RBD here yet? (DOW -300points drop)

hm.. now to come think of it, didn't someone here disprove that a RBD stock provided significant gains? If a stock or fund goes up 50% and then down 3% then by the definition used on this forum that would be a "RBD"...why anyone would think that this represents any sort of "buy now&q...
by John3754
Thu Jul 31, 2014 8:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RBD here yet? (DOW -300points drop) [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 43
Views: 4039

Re: International investing. A good call by our mentor.

This seems to me like A) Confusing outcome with strategy, and B) Confirmation bias. Could I not pick time periods when international beat domestic? Or show that over certain time periods international did not perfectly correlate with domestic and therefore reduced volatility? I really just don't see...
by John3754
Thu Jul 31, 2014 12:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International investing. A good call by our mentor.
Replies: 52
Views: 4435

Re: HUFF POST: How Financially Literate Is the Investing Pub

What I'd like to know is, if the mutual funds investors are losing 4 points, who is getting that 4 points? People holding individual stocks? Institutional investors? Or does some of it go up in smoke to trade costs or tax drag (paying CG tax when swapping funds, for example)? They are losing it bec...
by John3754
Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:54 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Huff Post: How Financially Literate Is the Investing Public?
Replies: 43
Views: 2859

Re: HUFF POST: How Financially Literate Is the Investing Pub

How can we expect the general public to be financially literate when nobody teaches young people in this country about finances? It is a failure of our system in my opinion. I'm a highly educated professional and in all my years of education I was taught literally nothing about finances, the only re...
by John3754
Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Huff Post: How Financially Literate Is the Investing Public?
Replies: 43
Views: 2859

Re: Help with a new $5m portfolio for an old lady

Update: Mom and I had another run through her math, and it turns out she'd really prefer to draw $180k-200k/yr. (I knew $100k was too low, but I thought it would be closer...) She's now talking more like 3.5%/yr draw -- not nearly so easy, but not entirely outside the realm of reason from what I ca...
by John3754
Wed Jul 30, 2014 10:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with a new $5m portfolio for an old lady
Replies: 59
Views: 4233

Re: How would retiring at 45 change investment strategy?

If you want to retire at 45 you'd better have the ability to both max out your tax advantaged accounts AND make large contributions to a taxable account. If you cannot achieve this then I suspect there's a flaw in your plan. How much in total do you plan on having saved when you retire at 45 and wha...
by John3754
Wed Jul 30, 2014 6:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How would retiring at 45 change investment strategy?
Replies: 12
Views: 1577

Re: Help with a new $5m portfolio for an old lady

Your mother is asking for a 2% return with no risk to principal yet most people in this thread are recommending that she take on significant stock and bond market risk...this advice is not consistent with the given stipulations. $5M in an 80% bond 20% stock portfolio can lose a significant amount of...
by John3754
Tue Jul 29, 2014 9:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with a new $5m portfolio for an old lady
Replies: 59
Views: 4233

Re: Best place to put $20k cash (taxable money)

I like I bonds, but it's impossible to give any meaningful response to this without knowing more about your friend.
by John3754
Sun Jul 27, 2014 9:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best place to put $20k cash (taxable money)
Replies: 8
Views: 1022

Re: Do Bogleheads Ladder CDs Anymore?

For those of you saying "I no longer use CDs because rates are too low"...what are you using instead?
by John3754
Sun Jul 27, 2014 5:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do Bogleheads Ladder CDs Anymore?
Replies: 25
Views: 2369

Re: bond duration and interest rate risk

On the second point, in the section on Duration , the Bogleheads wiki had this to say: Duration has another useful summary property, which is that if the yield curve shifts in parallel[2], then duration is the point of indifference to interest rate changes . For example, if a bond/portfolio/fund wi...
by John3754
Sun Jul 27, 2014 1:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bond duration and interest rate risk
Replies: 23
Views: 1782

Re: bond duration and interest rate risk

If rates rise, the long term bond will lose more NAV value, but by 6.3 years ( assuming I reinvest all dividends) the increased yield would put me back to where I started... That is assuming the unlikely scenario that there is a rise in rates and drop in NAV at a single point in time, after which r...
by John3754
Sun Jul 27, 2014 1:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bond duration and interest rate risk
Replies: 23
Views: 1782

Re: Where would you put 30k for a 70 yo first time investor?

So I want him to get more comfortable with investing than he is now so he has more options in the future than what he has previously done which is pay down debt (own real estate) + regular bank accounts. He has not even ever had a CD. "I am not a moderate person, I want something aggressive.&q...
by John3754
Sat Jul 26, 2014 1:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where would you put 30k for a 70 yo first time investor?
Replies: 13
Views: 1440

Re: Where would you put 30k for a 70 yo first time investor?

He wants it to grow as inheritance for his kids, but it would also be his backup $ if he ever needed it. These are incongruent goals in my opinion, these funds cannot be both "money I'll never need and want to leave as an inheritance" and "backup money in case I need it"...in ot...
by John3754
Sat Jul 26, 2014 12:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where would you put 30k for a 70 yo first time investor?
Replies: 13
Views: 1440

Re: The Best Way To Kill Flies

Looks messy.
by John3754
Sat Jul 26, 2014 12:00 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Best Way To Kill Flies
Replies: 5
Views: 819

Re: Afraid of Bonds

I-Bonds are an option, but the interest rate there isn't much better than CDs ... If your goal is to preserve principal then I-Bonds are a great alternative in my opinion. The yield on them may be low currently but you have to realize that I-Bonds offer a unique combination of features that other i...
by John3754
Sat Jul 26, 2014 10:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Afraid of Bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 2251

Re: Advice needed for $825,000 nest egg

Market timing doesn't work.
by John3754
Fri Jul 25, 2014 8:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice needed for $825,000 nest egg
Replies: 15
Views: 2290

Re: Should market valuations be completely disregarded?

Valuations matter, but there's nothing I can do about them. I consider it much like the price of gasoline...the price of gasoline matters to me, but I still have to fill my tank so I can drive to work regardless of the price. Well, sort of. It depends on how much the price of gas goes up: 2x Time t...
by John3754
Tue Jul 22, 2014 5:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should market valuations be completely disregarded?
Replies: 50
Views: 3850

Re: Should market valuations be completely disregarded?

Valuations matter, but there's nothing I can do about them. I consider it much like the price of gasoline...the price of gasoline matters to me, but I still have to fill my tank so I can drive to work regardless of the price.
by John3754
Tue Jul 22, 2014 4:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should market valuations be completely disregarded?
Replies: 50
Views: 3850

Re: Gold, Silver, Copper

selftalk wrote:Don`t look now but the gold, silver and copper train is leaving the station.


Looks like your train has stalled.
by John3754
Tue Jul 22, 2014 2:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold, Silver, Copper
Replies: 87
Views: 5017

Re: Can it be wrong to be too risk averse?

Yes it is definitely possible to be too risk averse, the danger being that your savings will be crushed by inflation over the decades.
by John3754
Mon Jul 21, 2014 11:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can it be wrong to be too risk averse?
Replies: 49
Views: 2337

Re: Reverse Savings Rates

I simply save 100% of my raises, rather than inflating my lifestyle. Keeps my expenses in check, and accelerates my savings, makes sense to me.
by John3754
Mon Jul 21, 2014 11:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reverse Savings Rates
Replies: 5
Views: 1013

Re: how often do you look at your account

I look quarterly and rebalance twice a year.
by John3754
Sun Jul 20, 2014 11:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: how often do you look at your account
Replies: 70
Views: 3615

Re: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity

Suppose you had, as part of your AA, some stipulation that when the market topped... Heyolshan, executing a market timing opportunity plan successfully seems to be dependent on knowing when the market has "topped", can you explain exactly how one goes about doing this? Many people predict...
by John3754
Sat Jul 19, 2014 11:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity
Replies: 46
Views: 2975

Re: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity

Heyolshan wrote:Suppose you had, as part of your AA, some stipulation that when the market topped, you backed off of stock holdings, and when it went lower you went back in.


How do I know when the market is topping?
by John3754
Fri Jul 18, 2014 7:19 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity
Replies: 46
Views: 2975

Re: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity

I'm talking about taking some portion of your money out of the market while stocks are at an all-time high, on the chance that the market will drop when QE3 ends. And what happens if you're wrong? What if you pull a large chunk of cash out of the market, QE ends, and the market doesn't drop...then ...
by John3754
Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing vs. Market Opportunity
Replies: 46
Views: 2975

Re: Relatively safe investment for large sum

sdsailing wrote:Consider vanguard wellesley.


Not tax efficient.
by John3754
Thu Jul 17, 2014 8:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively safe investment for large sum
Replies: 43
Views: 3231

Re: Relatively safe investment for large sum

Someone at work just recommends looking into 2020 target fund. What do you guys think about that? I think thats a terrible idea. The vanguard equivalent is 65% stock, that's risky for money you want to have at least 90% of in 5 years. Note that the allocation of a 2020 target fund does not assume t...
by John3754
Thu Jul 17, 2014 6:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively safe investment for large sum
Replies: 43
Views: 3231

Re: Relatively safe investment for large sum

VWAHX has an SEC yield of 2.93% and an average duration of 6.2 years. Any takers on that given the OPs criteria?
by John3754
Thu Jul 17, 2014 3:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relatively safe investment for large sum
Replies: 43
Views: 3231

Re: But why not 100% stock index fund?

I tell everyone young to go full blown into stock index funds. It is a win-win situation. If the market goes up, I look like a genius. If the market goes down, I have entry points to lower my cost basis with continuous DCA buying. What if they take your advice, "go full blown into stocks"...
by John3754
Wed Jul 16, 2014 12:12 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: But why not 100% stock index fund?
Replies: 76
Views: 7138

Re: But why not 100% stock index fund?

Right now, my retirement money (not my emergency funds) is invested in 100% US stock index funds. During the down markets of 2000 and 2008, my retirement funds were invested in 100% US stock index funds. 40 years from now, my retirement money (not my emergency funds) will be invested in US stock in...
by John3754
Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: But why not 100% stock index fund?
Replies: 76
Views: 7138

Re: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old

2) there are no guarantees that stocks rebound after any amount of time. This. It seems to me that a lot of people don't understand what equity risk truly means. I see far too many people say things like "I'm 100% stocks because I'm very risk tolerant and I know that if stocks crash it'll all ...
by John3754
Tue Jul 15, 2014 10:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old
Replies: 85
Views: 6220

Re: But why not 100% stock index fund?

Right now, my retirement money (not my emergency funds) is invested in 100% US stock index funds. During the down markets of 2000 and 2008, my retirement funds were invested in 100% US stock index funds. 40 years from now, my retirement money (not my emergency funds) will be invested in US stock in...
by John3754
Tue Jul 15, 2014 12:06 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: But why not 100% stock index fund?
Replies: 76
Views: 7138

Re: I'm cosigner .. Friend thinking of bankruptcy .. Pls hel

newboggler wrote:I am thinking of paying off auto loan and getting verbal agreement with friend to pay me back like a loan...


Good luck with that one...my guess is that you'd never see that money again.
by John3754
Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm cosigner .. Friend thinking of bankruptcy .. Pls help
Replies: 64
Views: 7604

Re: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old

...bonds look poised to do nothing or decrease in value over the next 2 decades or so. Plus we have a lot of cash reserves so it's easier to justify the risk. Which do you think is going to do worse over the next two decades, bonds or your large cash reserves? This kind of rationalization "it'...
by John3754
Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old
Replies: 85
Views: 6220

Re: [Poll] How often do you re-balance?

I update my spreadsheet every 6 months and rebalance if outside of my bands.
by John3754
Mon Jul 14, 2014 11:33 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] How often do you re-balance?
Replies: 25
Views: 2218

Re: But why not 100% stock index fund?

Currently I'm at 92% at age 46 ...after 2000 I switched all the money outside of retirement acct's into cd's, I bonds and high yield savings acct's which is approx 25% of my financial worth. If 25% of your net worth is in CDs, I Bonds and savings then your AA is not 92% stocks...unless I'm reading ...
by John3754
Sun Jul 13, 2014 9:46 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: But why not 100% stock index fund?
Replies: 76
Views: 7138

Re: But why not 100% stock index fund?

Heyolshan wrote:...with the caveat that when you near retirement you need to begin moving some portion of it into a less volatile investment or cash.


How near retirement should one be before moving out of 100% stocks? 1 year? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? Where do you draw the line?
by John3754
Sun Jul 13, 2014 6:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: But why not 100% stock index fund?
Replies: 76
Views: 7138

Re: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old

For me, a major market downturn would be scary... If I lost $50,000, $60,000, or $90,000 overnight, so what? So which is it, would a major market down turn scare you, or would you say "so what"? You say you have $100,000 now, what if you had $300,000 and lost $150,000...or what if you had...
by John3754
Sun Jul 13, 2014 5:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old
Replies: 85
Views: 6220

Re: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old

But would only seeing 80% of my portfolio evaporate, instead of 100%, make much of a difference? I mean, if I'm going to panic, sell, and screw everything up, wouldn't I do it in either scenario? Well, presumably if you had 80%-100% in stocks then you wouldn't see 80%-100% of your portfolio evapora...
by John3754
Sun Jul 13, 2014 3:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on 100% stock allocation for 33 year old
Replies: 85
Views: 6220

Re: Investing is starting to get boring

You've mentioned here that your portfolio is 100% stock, so rest assured that eventually things will indeed get "exciting" for you, nobody knows when though.
by John3754
Sun Jul 13, 2014 2:33 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing is starting to get boring
Replies: 39
Views: 3909

Re: 15 vs 30 yr fixed, or 5/1 ARM

Why would you take the 30 year and pay a higher rate when you're going to make the payememt as if it's a 15 year?
by John3754
Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:46 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 15 vs 30 yr fixed, or 5/1 ARM
Replies: 16
Views: 1444

Re: Suggestions for 1-2 Days in NYC?

livesoft wrote:There are no locals in NYC. Everybody there is from someplace else. Just listen to the chatter on the streets. Rarely will you hear any English.


[OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek]
by John3754
Tue Jun 24, 2014 1:07 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suggestions for 1-2 Days in NYC?
Replies: 51
Views: 3134

Re: Would you change stock allocation based on market condit

I voted: "Never no matter what the market is doing." Best wishes. Taylor I recently saw some posts you made during the depths of the 2008 crash where you stated multiple times that you were contemplating selling out of the stock market because you could not tolerate any more losses. Can y...
by John3754
Mon Jun 23, 2014 8:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you change stock allocation based on market conditions
Replies: 37
Views: 1771

Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Your "system" is based on the gamblers fallacy, it is the most common logical fallacy made by those who think they've figured out a way to beat the casino. If I flip a coin 4 times and each time it lands on heads, is the 5th flip more likely to land on tails than heads because of the resul...
by John3754
Mon Jun 23, 2014 8:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help devising winning roulette system
Replies: 72
Views: 3122
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