Bogleheads.org

The trick is not to find a manager who outperformed the market in the past, that is easy. The trick is to find a manager who will consistently outperform the market in the future. That's hard.

Yes, it's hard, but I know how to do it. Just flip a coin. Works as well as any other method.

1987? An honest assessment would have at least hinted that the S&P is down since the 2000/2001 peak, and it's sure not looking good to go back up there any time soon. Well, at least he shows the chart - probably hopes his words will distract you. Note: 10 year annualized total return is 3.99%, T...

Some of the comments here seem kind of angry and mean spirited. I don't get it. This is a woman who is maybe of below average judgment and intelligence who has made some bad decisions and is suffering. Why are you mocking her and attacking her? Amen. First, our entire economy is based on convincing...

Supposedly tripped on a pothole, opted to save his MacBook Air rather than his face.
Either that or Volcker slugged him.

Go to charlierose.com for March 18 interview.

Just curious. If your withdrawal rate is only 2%, why have you determined you need 45% in stocks? Do you plan to leave lots of money, are you very young, do you expect/fear that rate will escalate, do you have no other income?

This is way over my head, and probably over the heads of 99.5% of our population Not really. It's not all that complicated. The problem is that it is not discussed. The average citizen can tell you all about Paul McCartney's divorce settlement and the latest sex scandal, but they haven't a clue abo...

My two cents: Given the high expenses, I would invest only up to the point your employer ceases to match your contribution, then go to an IRA or a taxable account. Then lobby your employer to get real.

There is always the trade-off between convenience and efficiency. My admittedly unscientific take is that Total Bond is fine especially for a very long-term investor, Intermediate Term is probably even better (per Swedroe) but the availability of TIPS makes it possible to easily buy some extra prote...

Somebody can check the numbers, but basically I think they have had a 6 or 8 year or so run compared to domestic equities, so it's not surprising. In the previous similar period, they underperformed relative to the US.

I don't like "bailouts" or if you will, unprecedented emergency financial assistance from the federal government, for anybody. You know darn well it's ultimately going to put tax money at risk. The only question is whether it's worth it. Similarly, I agree, why should somebody who paid too...

When you say you've "lost money" on funds, that probably means you sold when they went down. An advantage of individual bonds is you aren't likely to sell before they mature, but with a fund, you may be tempted to sell when they go down. I find eliminating the hassle of reinvesting the bon...

We have these big investment bankers, driven by ivory-tower economists armed with their history-based mathematical models, running the financial markets. They've usurped the banks and risk-averse real-world bankers, and after their faulty models failed, now have to be bailed out by the Fed. If the F...

I don't understand why 20% of equity investment in international is considered "balanced". If diversification is key, then why ignore the bulk of the world's stock markets? I would be at least 33% international, and within that looking at a little overweighted exposure to emerging market i...

Fidelity has an inventory of primary and secondary FDIC-insured CDs. Just go their site, click Research to Fixed Income to Bonds. (Haven't check their offerings lately, and not sure of commissions - probably 0 for new issues, $8 for secondary?)

I don't think anybody should be 100% in any investment class over which he has no real personal control, unless maybe you are super-rich, in which case you can just buy Treasuries at 2%. Remember diversification. Beyond pure theory, you also have to consider psychology: There are very few people ind...

"Strong run up to this point?" The Schultheis comments reflect the perspective of someone who has to show short-term "performance", i.e., an "investment manager". The primary purpose of inflation bonds is insurance against inflation, which is especially important to fix...

I didn't intend it to be political, and certainly didn't mean it to be partisan. Nor do I believe it "highly improper" to question whether we have been blind to better more direct ways of achieving the goal of stabilizing the crisis, but I'll let the monitors judge that. Meanwhile, thanks ...

Oops - my bad, I think. Amazing, the time-scale makes the Depression look like a small benign dip. Which it is, in the long span of history. Unfortunately, I don't expect to be investing for 135 years. The market has been very very good to us recently - we have been very very lucky. Got a non-logori...

My advice: Don't quit your job, you'll be fine if you handle the boredom, uncle takes care of its own like no other employer in the world.

If you believe the pollyannas here, it's WONDERFUL news. Seriously, if you're asking is that normal, well it's about where the Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund is. The big question is whether that is coincidence or not. The fact that you are even asking this question means you should be investigatin...

Look at all the financial nonsense spewed on the media. How many of those people are being sued? What about the medical advice on the internet? Somehow, I don't think there is a judge or jury dumb enough to think anybody who takes free advice from an anonymous source on the internet without corrobor...

1. Defer SS (if you can't, you shouldn't be retiring). 2. Have at least 60% of your money in conservative fixed income (if you can't live on that, you shouldn't be retiring). 3. Be skeptical of 4% withdrawal rates (if you need that much, you shouldn't be retiring). 4. The overarching principal: Leav...

Remember to look only at charts that shows reinvested dividends. There are some Dow charts out there that look differently because they are price only.

Nice, except you ignored inflation.

Don't get me wrong, I believe the Fed's actions were warranted though possibly a bit panicky. (As that Cramer character says, the Feds were "pantsed".) But let me get this straight: The government and the Fed guarantee an overnight bank buyout of BS for pennies on the dollar, and they are ...

This is a trick question, since I see why you are wondering: The current muni fund yields look very good compared to the prime fund after taxes, and are substantially more than the treasury fund, which is unusual - I really can't explain it except as residual fallout from insurers' issues. I wouldn'...

401Ks are sometimes better protected against creditors. IRA protections, including divorce situations, vary in a few states. God only knows what the 401K beneficiary rules may be, since they even vary by employer, though the IRA rules are uniform. Then there are the offshore self-directed IRAs used ...

I've been in a 401K since they have a good stable value fund not available in a regular mutual fund family.

I don't know you, so I can't answer for you, and even if I did, I still might not know. Ask yourself, if offered the chance to buy a tax-free no-risk 10 year bond at 4.65%, how much would I like to invest today? That's the same as paying some or all of it off, assuming no tax breaks from the mortgag...

You have a good point. As to government being a bad manager: Compared to what - BS? A valid reason: It's decisions would too often be politically rather than economically driven. (That's why the Fed is independent - to try to minimize the politics). Not the usual baloney, e.g., it's anti-capitalism,...

Optimists? Pessimists? Silly language. How about realists? Despite all the historical "scientific" studies and simulations, no one knows what will happen to the long-term economy as a whole, because we are, as is sometimes the case, in uncharted waters. Though maybe you'd like to ask those...

Corrections are good. Bear markets, hmmm. It all depends on the time frame.
You mean like the Great Depression? Or the 1970s?
Yeah, those were the days.

The advisor says they have "too much money". Like Greenspan, who once said the US had "too big of a surplus", I'm sure he knows some great ways to solve that problem. This is the problem with many commissioned advisors. Some of their advice is OK, then when specific recommendatio...

Understand, the comment wasn't aimed at Paulson.

The practice of citing only the Dow on the news is an indication that they don't know and don't care. And they think the public is totally ignorant, too, so give the suckers what they want, which in a way is even scarier.

Why the panic and the bailout? Because it's probably worse than anybody will tell us, and the Fed had little recourse. I am comforted by the fact that the Secretary of the Treasury "worked this weekend" to "solve the problem", i.e., make a phone call to support the Fed's action.

Just wait a little while - it's going to get cheaper.

The FDIC website was helpful to me once and rated the banks as outstanding, adequate, etc., though as I recall it took some navigating. If it's FDIC insured I wouldn't lose any sleep unless you're over the limit or are concerned about instant liquidity - if the bank fails, your money gets tied up an...

Yes, turn off your TVs and buy long-term bonds. Great idea.

I think he's right, we've been living in an enormous bubble fueled by out-of-control public and private debt, and the Fed can't do much about it. This is reminiscent of the 70s in many ways, and most of the differences, may make it even worse. Unless we're very lucky, it's going to take a lot longer...

The power of compounding is on your side: Early years probably won't change your cost basis much. If you know what you paid for the original shares, you can estimate the unknown distributions based on the annualized return to date and the known distributions, which is readily available for most funds.

Except for the basic index funds, Vanguard has much lower expenses for domestic and international stock funds. Vanguard has cheaper bond funds across the board. Fidelity has more funds (too many for me). Fidelity has a better/cheaper brokerage, and you can buy most of the non-Admiral Vanguard funds ...

Puerto Rico/VI individual bonds
Or a NY mutual fund or ETF.
But I also think the USSC has a pending decision that could change exemptions - a long shot but possible.

OK, moneyman, "progressiveness" is one good way of framing their statement/excuse, but I'm not sure I'm totally buying it. The short-term loss of tax revenue may be closer to the truth.

With all due respect Victoria, that sounds like a lot of bureaucratic doubletalk. I think what they said is: "The purpose of the savings bonds program is to provide individuals with a way to save or invest relatively small amounts of money in non-marketable Treasury securities. Individuals with...

I don't buy it.
[political comment removed by Mod Mel]

Unless something extremely unexpected happens between now and then, I'd be very surprised if they don't lower the I bond rate. When Treasury imposed the $5K limits they took away one of the best deals available to small investors/savers, and I don't see them doing us any favors any time soon. Why th...

Not an expert, but guess lots of people think inflation and a recession won't mix.
I do know that for most small investors/savers the choice between 5 year treasuries at 2.3% and FDIC-insured CDs at 4% is a no-brainer. Apparently the market is so risk-averse only the super-safest will do.

"Constricted not rattled", as Tom Dooley said when they tightened the noose.
I don't know your situation, but the fact that you think $300K is big money makes me think you may be going in over your head. Or are you just angling for a loan here?

I think they should raise the taxes on them to reflect the true costs incurred to repair damage to personal health and the environment, maintain a big part of our military to defend oil in the middle east, and provide federal subsidies to oil interests. Aside from the intangible, i.e., more accurate...