Search found 2411 matches

by JoMoney
Tue Jul 28, 2015 2:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I know I'm not the only one... [dividend paying stock funds]
Replies: 18
Views: 1570

Re: I know I'm not the only one...

... Consider another scenario. Companies can boost earnings artificially through accounting gimmicks. However, dividends can only be paid through cash. If you take on debt, or issue equity who's sole purpose is to pay the dividend, this is pretty transparent. Management cannot hide a failing busine...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 27, 2015 8:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can you return food at a restaurant and not have to pay for it?
Replies: 42
Views: 3565

Re: Can you return food at a restaurant and not have to pay for it?

It's been a long time since I worked in a restaurant, but I can say that I was way to busy to be concerned about trying to be vengeful against a unsatisfied customer. Most of the time, the last thing I wanted was to do something that would cause them further dissatisfaction. I do remember hearing ot...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 27, 2015 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I know I'm not the only one... [dividend paying stock funds]
Replies: 18
Views: 1570

Re: I know I'm not the only one...

I've read that, over the past century, 75% of market returns would have come from dividends The implication being that money companies reinvest in themselves has typically been used less efficiently But it also begs the question. There's not a clear way of discerning whether the dividends that were...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 27, 2015 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How long until a $10,000 loss matters?
Replies: 39
Views: 3069

Re: How long until a $10,000 loss matters?

Hopefully I'm a long way away from being retired, but I can say I don't plan on taking any fixed dollar amount from the stock portfolio. Ideally I would have a great deal of my essential liabilities matched to sources of fixed income. Withdrawals from equities would probably be on some proportional/...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 27, 2015 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I know I'm not the only one... [dividend paying stock funds]
Replies: 18
Views: 1570

Re: I know I'm not the only one...

It's multi-faceted debate, there are lots of claims about lots of different types of stocks people claim have superior risk, return, tax, or psychological benefits. Different people will have different arguments for or against it. It should be clear that there was no additional value created by movi...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 27, 2015 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Futility of Predicting Future Returns
Replies: 41
Views: 1598

Re: The Futility of Predicting Future Returns

As stated, these can be anchored to TIPS return held to maturity, which "needs no return prediction." [aside from the likelihood the government pays you back on those, maybe] If I understand you, you are saying that any Boglehead that ever considered that the U.S. government would pay the...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 27, 2015 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice: why not?
Replies: 78
Views: 3830

Re: Eight "Lazy Portfolios" -- Less is more.

If you think buying a small-cap value index fund is mimicking Warren Buffet, we'll have to disagree. If you think it's a good strategy to pick stocks (or styles) based on past returns without even considering whether the conditions today are comparable to the period you're looking at, again we'll ha...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 27, 2015 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice: why not?
Replies: 78
Views: 3830

Re: Eight "Lazy Portfolios" -- Less is more.

...The top performing choice shown on that page is one fund: the S&P 500, but I don't think you would be telling us that choosing that one-fund portfolio (which is pretty simple!) would be the top choice, right? I've been pretty happy with it. It's had a pretty good run of late, and that certai...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 27, 2015 5:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economics - Savers vs Spenders and economy
Replies: 13
Views: 1742

Re: Economics - Savers vs Spenders and economy

There is a theory of The Paradox of Thrift , but I believe it eventually has to come to an equilibrium, although it may be a bumpy road. We must save to invest in the capital resources we use to produce for the economy. If we are saving then it means we have income from which to save a portion of. I...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 27, 2015 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roll Your Own Hedge Fund?
Replies: 10
Views: 1269

Re: Roll Your Own Hedge Fund?

The problem with hedge funds is they make extraordinary claims, fail to deliver, then fall back on the idea that they offer some sort of unique non-correlated 'diversification'. Protege Partners weren't forced into their wager against Buffett's selected index fund . Yet when things turn against them...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 26, 2015 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice: why not?
Replies: 78
Views: 3830

Re: Slice & Dice or Total Market?

You can also find 15 year periods where TBM beat TSM. Does that mean you give up TSM? I don't think so. SCV is to TSM as TSM is to TBM. Not really. TSM and TBM are different asset classes, and there is no serious debate about whether portfolios should include both... FWIW, the academics don't under...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 26, 2015 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice: why not?
Replies: 78
Views: 3830

Re: Slice & Dice or Total Market?

I don't own TBM, but the bonds I own are because there is no certainty in the returns of stocks and I sleep better at night knowing I have some contingency reserve of cash that will be there should I need it. You can state why YOU believe there is some sort of "risk premium" being efficien...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 26, 2015 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman Small Cap Value "Free Lunch"
Replies: 47
Views: 3987

Re: Paul Merriman Small Cap Value "Free Lunch"

There's a huge market of private businesses that get bought and sold without having daily price quotations. Some people -like Warren Buffett, have suggested that the public market is less efficient, he finds more deals in the public market because people selling in the private market generally have ...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 26, 2015 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman Small Cap Value "Free Lunch"
Replies: 47
Views: 3987

Re: Paul Merriman Small Cap Value "Free Lunch"

I think you can have everyone (or close enough to everyone) holding a market weighted index fund. You'd lose a lot of liquidity, there would be a lot less day to day activity in the markets, but it would probably force people to actually take an interest in the operations of the business and making ...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 26, 2015 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: estimate future real returns ?
Replies: 16
Views: 1164

Re: estimate future real returns ?

A good estimate for a bond fund is it's yield to maturity. If you bought an individual 10 year bond you would know precisely what the return would be at maturity, but since bond funds are always rolling forward with a relatively constant duration the varying changes in interest rates may play a role...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 26, 2015 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman Small Cap Value "Free Lunch"
Replies: 47
Views: 3987

Re: Paul Merriman Small Cap Value "Free Lunch"

You would just be trading against yourself so it's not likely to be that lucrative.
The real money would be in investment banking, cranking out worthless IPO's and controlling the voting rights of all those 'passive' shares.
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 26, 2015 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice: why not?
Replies: 78
Views: 3830

Re: Slice and Dice: why not?

DFA exclusively markets themselves to institutional clients and select advisors.
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 26, 2015 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can you return food at a restaurant and not have to pay for it?
Replies: 42
Views: 3565

Re: Can you return food at a restaurant and not have to pay for it?

I worked in a restaurant a long long time ago. The policy we were instructed to follow was that if the customer ate the food (or most of it) there was no refund. We would offer apologies, try to assure we would try to correct any issues from occurring in the future, offer coupons or maybe a free des...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 26, 2015 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman Small Cap Value "Free Lunch"
Replies: 47
Views: 3987

Re: Paul Merriman Small Cap Value "Free Lunch"

Suggesting equal weighting as a strategy for everybody is absurd. The market weight will be what the aggregate market can hold and will always be the aggregate result of the market. Trading and alternative weightings doesn't add anything of value, if anything it creates distortions.
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 26, 2015 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would Demand For Bonds Temper the Drop in NAV
Replies: 13
Views: 766

Re: Would Demand For Bonds Temper the Drop in NAV

The big fear has been that rising interest rates will cause a mass exodus and severe liquidity problems in the bond market - particularly for large mutual funds - too many sellers. I think this is the first time I've heard a hypothesis that rising rates would cause more buyers in bonds... but hey, i...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 26, 2015 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice: why not?
Replies: 78
Views: 3830

Re: Slice and Dice: why not?

Institutional investment managers are selling the small value strategy really hard to institutional investors, citing behavioral reasons to support the assertion that the historical outperformance will persist. If the small value premium is a market inefficiency, lots of people are focused on explo...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 26, 2015 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman Small Cap Value "Free Lunch"
Replies: 47
Views: 3987

Re: Paul Merriman Small Cap Value "Free Lunch"

... these tilts become just another form of tactical asset allocation or market timing. I'm certainly not smart enough to know which is correct but since I'm not convinced the tilts will persist, I'll stay with my plain vanilla untilted portfolio. Right, even if one is trading at a relatively eleva...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 26, 2015 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman Small Cap Value "Free Lunch"
Replies: 47
Views: 3987

Re: Paul Merriman Small Cap Value "Free Lunch"

Over the past 16.5 years (from 12/31/1998 to 6/30/2015 ), Vanguards Small-Cap fund went from a P/E of 23.1 to 29.8 Vanguards S&P500 fund went from a P/E of 32.9 to 20.1 If relative earnings growth between these funds remained constant, this change in the price multiple would account for an addit...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 26, 2015 2:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fear Not the Inevitable Stock Market Correction
Replies: 19
Views: 3281

Re: Fear Not the Inevitable Stock Market Correction

... Any historical reading on rule of 20? This guy looks at average PE based on inflation and concludes Stocks are not overvalued. Far from it. According to this model, the appropriate earnings yield is roughly 4.7%, which translates to a P/E just over 21. If the personal consumption deflator were ...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 25, 2015 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice: why not?
Replies: 78
Views: 3830

Re: Slice and Dice: why not?

... Surely the decline in interest rates doesn't explain the SCV, EM, and REIT excess returns?... For any business, lower costs of capital can lead to higher profits. Some businesses like REITs are very much dependent on borrowed money to fuel growth and lower rates have definitely helped there. As...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 25, 2015 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets 3Q 2015 (graphs, charts)
Replies: 11
Views: 1198

Re: J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets 3Q 2015 (graphs, charts)

I find their chart on page 6 interesting. Forward P/E had a R2=43% for subsequent 5-yr annualized returns. Not very impressive as far as being an indicator I'd want to be making big bets on, but this would imply that analysts forward estimates (despite the constant derision they get) rank as well as...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 25, 2015 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roll Your Own Hedge Fund?
Replies: 10
Views: 1269

Re: Roll Your Own Hedge Fund?

Vanguard has their "Market Neutral" fund as a lower cost hedge fund option.
I just don't see the benefit of it though, there have been times where it looks like an interesting alternative, but when a real crisis hit, the touted benefits of such a strategy didn't hold up.
PV Link
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 25, 2015 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Has the Index Fund Won?" by Jack Bogle
Replies: 6
Views: 1684

Re: "Has the Index Fund Won?" by Jack Bogle

It really is a nice article, I wish there was more depth in some of the comments Mr. Bogle made, it was very interesting. I was able to read it online through a public library resource that subscribes to a service for researching periodicals. If you're a member of a public library, it might be a 'fr...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 25, 2015 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Total" Stock No More So than "Total" Bond
Replies: 52
Views: 3753

Re: "Total" Stock No More So than "Total" Bond

It's interesting that iShares has a "iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG)" that tracks the Barclays Aggregate index, but created a new fund called "iShares Core Total USD Bond Market ETF (IUSB)" that tracks the Barclays Universal index. The new 'universal' index includes ju...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 25, 2015 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: going to cash
Replies: 33
Views: 4765

Re: going to cash

dc81584 wrote:...
Pish posh! Earnings stink!

I agree, but I'm also of the opinon that we're effectively in a depression that's been painted over with QE and hasn't been of much help to the broader economy. I'm hopeful for brighter days ahead.
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 25, 2015 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice: why not?
Replies: 78
Views: 3830

Re: Slice and Dice: why not?

It matters if A and B are of different risks. If they have the same level of relative risk/return, and no expected "risk premium" that might give the riskier holdings some compelling advantage, then the only reason to take the additional risk is to gamble on a coin flip. If the riskier po...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 25, 2015 6:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Protection against stock correctiom
Replies: 25
Views: 2399

Re: Protection against stock correctiom

For the sake of argument, I'm going to say high quality bonds are the best protection against a stock market correction. :thumbsup Risk and Risk Control in an Era of Confidence http://johncbogle.com/speeches/JCB_NE_Pension_4-00.pdf The relative situation with regard to interest rates available on b...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 25, 2015 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice: why not?
Replies: 78
Views: 3830

Re: Slice and Dice: why not?

It matters if A and B are of different risks. If they have the same level of relative risk/return, and no expected "risk premium" that might give the riskier holdings some compelling advantage, then the only reason to take the additional risk is to gamble on a coin flip. If the riskier por...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slice and Dice: why not?
Replies: 78
Views: 3830

Re: Slice and Dice: why not?

rca1824 wrote:... others slice and dice. In an attempt to settle the debate once and for all ...

Thank you for the laugh. :D
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 25, 2015 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Total" Stock No More So than "Total" Bond
Replies: 52
Views: 3753

Re: "Total" Stock No More So than "Total" Bond

Sometimes I wonder if Vanguard intentionally avoids using the index name in the fund name so that they can switch indexes down the road. Although the objectives for most of their funds stay the same, there have been some complaints about their index switching. TSM hasn't avoided their index switchin...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 25, 2015 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 201
Views: 11255

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

I never really considered holding an S&P500 index fund an active or 'tilted' portfolio until I joined this board. But I've grown to like the idea of considering it a 'tilt' away from tilt'ers, avoiding the stocks they seem to want to overweight 8-) Regardless of how anyone wants to define the st...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buy copy of wall street journal in San Jose Bay Area
Replies: 11
Views: 1326

Re: Buy copy of wall street journal in San Jose Bay Area

Starbucks coffee shops sell WSJ in a lot of areas... have you checked one near you?
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 25, 2015 4:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 201
Views: 11255

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

The past decade has looked pretty good for someone 'staying the course' and not trying to get too tricky with their portfolio. I decided to take a quick peek at the performance of some of the more outspoken voices that 'know something' and the stock choices they've suggested... 7/25/2005 - 7/25/2015...
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 24, 2015 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 201
Views: 11255

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

Don't forget preffered stocks, warrants, MLP's, insurance products, and pumpkins
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 24, 2015 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Total" Stock No More So than "Total" Bond
Replies: 52
Views: 3753

Re: "Total" Stock No More So than "Total" Bond

Total Stock doesn't even have all of the listed stocks. It's based on an index, and the index is specificly created to track a universe of stocks that are investable based on liquidity and other factors. I'll see if I can find some example stocks that are listed but excluded, but one can look at the...
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 24, 2015 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: going to cash
Replies: 33
Views: 4765

Re: going to cash

Taking a less 'risky' position isn't something I'd generally want to argue against, but market timing is. If your plan is that you think you'll earn more sitting in cash and waiting for someone to sell you stocks back at a better price sometime down the road, then I think you're playing a game where...
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Cochrane on Dick Thaler; "Homo economicus or homo paleas?"
Replies: 2
Views: 499

Re: John Cochrane on Dick Thaler; "Homo economicus or homo paleas?"

I don't think we'll ever find an effective model for measuring the markets efficiency. ... The uncertainty principle in economics arises from a simple fact: we are all actors in the economy and the models we use determine how we behave. If a model is discovered to be correct, then we will change our...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 23, 2015 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 201
Views: 11255

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

Philosophical Economics did an adjusted CAPE ratio which accounted for buybacks ... The conclusion was much the same http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2015/03/payout/ Which really just shows the interchangeability of buybacks and dividends, and puts the big question on guessing the future valua...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 23, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 201
Views: 11255

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

The major difference between my guesstimate and RA's is he wants to ignore buybacks as a source of return and wants to speculate on what the future P/E multiple will be which could be higher, could be lower, could be unchanged. You can apply your own P/E change offset or ignore it and hope to averag...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 23, 2015 4:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 201
Views: 11255

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

- We're riding on the locomotive. There are no tracks. The locomotive has been on a continuous journey from the bottom left corner to the top right corner for 200+ years. It takes a different path at every obstacle it reaches. Some people would have you believe they can find a better route than the ...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 23, 2015 2:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 201
Views: 11255

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

I don't think it's unreasonable to expect growth in line with the 2-3% real GDP growth http://www.multpl.com/us-real-gdp-growth-rate/table/by-year Add in the 4-5% "Dividend + Buyback Yield" http://us.spindices.com/documents/additional-material/sp-500-buyback.xlsx Call it something around 7...
by JoMoney
Wed Jul 22, 2015 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 201
Views: 11255

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

Total market cap/GDP is over 126%. Based on historical valuations, equity markets are overpriced. Warren Buffett popularized this metric, but a few months ago commented that he didn't really find it applicable under the current circumstances http://fortune.com/video/2014/10/07/buffett-stock-prices-...
by JoMoney
Wed Jul 22, 2015 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TRRKX (TDF) outperforms the Vanguard 3 fund ??
Replies: 6
Views: 954

Re: TRRKX (TDF) outperforms the Vanguard 3 fund ??

Over most of the recent periods, the T. Rowe Price Retirement 2045 TRRKX has outperform ed Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 Inv VTIVX Whether or not it will outperform in the future is anyone's guess. It does have an ER 4x higher than Vanguard's, which is something that doesn't bode well with me. You...

Go to advanced search