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Re: Overseas Foreign Exchange Rates

I looked up the respective rates for each card Visa/MC for 15-Dec (the 14th was a Sunday) http://usa.visa.com/personal/card-benefits/travel/exchange-rate-calculator-results.jsp 1.574643 https://www.mastercard.com/global/currencyconversion/ 1.573101 Both also have disclaimers regarding how imprecise ...
by JoMoney
Thu Dec 18, 2014 5:11 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Overseas Foreign Exchange Rates
Replies: 3
Views: 344

Re: Can there be a SCV equity premium without the "value" pa

Just for some perspective over more recent periods:
...back in 1998 Dr.Bernsteinhad documented some P/B of Vanguard funds:
SC 3.9x
S&P500 7.3x

P/B 10 years Ago 12/31/2004
SC 2.5x
SCV 1.9x
S&P500 3.0x

P/B Current 11/30/2014
SC 2.4x
SCV 1.9x
S&P500 2.8x
by JoMoney
Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can there be a SCV equity premium without the "value" part?
Replies: 12
Views: 890

Re: Any negative outlooks on healthcare industry's future

If Healthcare spending continues to grow at the rate it's been growing it will start to consume more and more of what people spend leaving very little for other things. You just can't have one piece of the whole that constantly grows at a higher rate or it will eventually subsume everything. I'm sur...
by JoMoney
Tue Dec 16, 2014 3:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any negative outlooks on healthcare industry's future
Replies: 49
Views: 2575

Re: in the past there was a period when active outperformed

...62 to 81 was not a particularly good period for stocks. I don't have exact numbers, perhaps one of the people who has these graphs at their fingertips would care to post?... Here's a chart with two funds from that period that still exist along with Morningstar benchmark composite data over that ...
by JoMoney
Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: in the past there was a period when active outperformed
Replies: 30
Views: 1570

Re: in the past there was a period when active outperformed

The Russell 2000 vs SP 500 certainly convinces me that the small cap premium is very small, if it even exists, although I feel that it's intellectually dishonest in the 2nd graph to say, if you remove this decade-long period of outperformance, then there is little outperformance over the entire per...
by JoMoney
Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:29 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: in the past there was a period when active outperformed
Replies: 30
Views: 1570

Re: in the past there was a period when active outperformed

... the greatest bull run for small-cap stocks occurred shortly after this (from 1975-1983). This time frame alone accounts for all of the long-run excess returns in small-caps, and shortly after it was noticed (I.e. the Banz paper) small-caps proceeded to have rather dismal returns in the period t...
by JoMoney
Mon Dec 15, 2014 4:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: in the past there was a period when active outperformed
Replies: 30
Views: 1570

Re: in the past there was a period when active outperformed

I don't believe it. Charles D. Ellis' influential paper, The Loser's Game , was published i n 1975 , and in 1975 he said: Disagreeable data are streaming out of the computers of Becker securities and Merrill Lynch and all the other performance measurement firms. Over and over and over again, these ...
by JoMoney
Sun Dec 14, 2014 4:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: in the past there was a period when active outperformed
Replies: 30
Views: 1570

Re: in the past there was a period when active outperformed

We have to be careful what benchmark we use, and what period dependent time frame we look at. If you pick a specific time period where small-cap stocks outperformed and measure it against a benchmark that is heavier in larger-cap stocks the fund with a smaller average market-cap will probably show b...
by JoMoney
Sun Dec 14, 2014 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: in the past there was a period when active outperformed
Replies: 30
Views: 1570

Re: 100% equities - my reasoning

...I do believe that the efficient frontier still has the 100% equities at the highest return, albeit only slightly, over an 80/20 but obviously w/ more volatility. I think if I look at it as far as number of years before "financial independence", an 80/20 portfolio may only require 3-5 y...
by JoMoney
Sun Dec 14, 2014 3:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% equities - my reasoning
Replies: 91
Views: 5867

Re: Turnover Expense impact on Expense Ratio

Trading / Brokerage fees are not a part of the Expense Ratio. Such fees are generally listed in the the mutual funds SAI "Statement of Additional Information" (sometimes found attached to/with the prospectus). The amount spent on trading fees is usually listed as a dollar amount, so to fig...
by JoMoney
Sun Dec 14, 2014 3:31 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turnover Expense impact on Expense Ratio
Replies: 22
Views: 742

Re: 100% equities - my reasoning

If you feel you need the validation of others to hold a high percentage of equities, it may not be right for you. Or are you looking for someone to talk you back from the ledge? Things have been looking pretty good the past couple years, if you have any doubt about what you're doing now, it will be ...
by JoMoney
Sun Dec 14, 2014 3:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% equities - my reasoning
Replies: 91
Views: 5867

Re: You folks think the big one is coming?

... The reality is that this is one of the longest bull markets in history ... I've heard this canard tossed around, but I don't think it's actually true. While we've had a stretch of good returns, it doesn't look unusual or the "longest in history". On an annual basis, there has been lon...
by JoMoney
Sat Dec 13, 2014 3:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You folks think [a market crash] is coming?
Replies: 64
Views: 5669

Re: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk

I have yet to hear a good answer as to why the different treatment for rebalancing with new money versus buy/sell existing funds. Billy As far as I'm concerned, you answered the question yourself. There's an expense when buying/selling in both fees and taxes, so unless your portfolio moves way out ...
by JoMoney
Fri Dec 12, 2014 11:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk
Replies: 73
Views: 4471

Re: Does 80/20 have more risk or volatility than 60/40?

Bonds offer you a promised rate of return (albeit subject to credit risk of the entity making that promise). Stocks offer you ownership of a business, with no promised return, but some expectation of future earnings at a rate that will be subject to the various changes in the economy. That ownership...
by JoMoney
Fri Dec 12, 2014 9:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 80/20 have more risk or volatility than 60/40?
Replies: 25
Views: 2635

Re: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?

The whole 90/10 vs 80/20 or 60/40 is a moot point. It's up to the individual to decide what risks they're willing to accept, and is appropriate for their situation. There is no one size fits all, and it's quite clear from the comments that 90/10 is too risky for some people here... but the idea that...
by JoMoney
Fri Dec 12, 2014 7:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?
Replies: 114
Views: 8031

Re: Don't Peek

A recent news article echoing Jack's advice: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-markets-tumble-be-like-bogle-dont-peek-2014-12-11?mod=MW_video_trending But for myself, I can't not peek... I watch and account for every paycheck deposit, I watch the markets on a daily basis, I listen to "the n...
by JoMoney
Thu Dec 11, 2014 7:30 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't Peek [at Your Portfolio Balance]
Replies: 33
Views: 3873

Re: Poll: International Equity Portfolio Changes

Staying the course. Don't own an International fund, but this year my S&P500 added Avago Technologies a company jointly headquartered in the U.S. and Singapore Mallinckrodt a U.S. headquartered company, incorporated in Ireland and Royal Caribbean Cruises a Norwegian / American company incorporat...
by JoMoney
Thu Dec 11, 2014 7:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: International Equity Portfolio Changes
Replies: 6
Views: 603

Re: Quick question: S&P 500 or Total Stock

For diversification purposes the Total Mrkt is better but if you look at the long term returns they are pretty much identical. I've read this and thought this and said this myself. And even graphed it out several times. But yesterday, I was looking at a 10 year graph and there is a difference big e...
by JoMoney
Thu Dec 11, 2014 4:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Quick question: S&P 500 or Total Stock
Replies: 18
Views: 1730

Re: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?

...his lack of supporting evidence.... What "evidence" do you think is needed? Vanguard's 500 index fund (the one he's explicitly mentioned in several of these statements and the fund used in his hedge fund bet) has been around and done a good job of tracking the S&P index since the 1...
by JoMoney
Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?
Replies: 114
Views: 8031

Re: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?

Does anyone actually know what the size of Buffett's bequest is? It's certainly not $60billion. Most of his wealth/Berkshire holdings will be given to various charities (e.g. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation), NOT to this wife/family.
by JoMoney
Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?
Replies: 114
Views: 8031

Re: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?

...his lack of supporting evidence.... What "evidence" do you think is needed? Vanguard's 500 index fund (the one he's explicitly mentioned in several of these statements and the fund used in his hedge fund bet) has been around and done a good job of tracking the S&P index since the 1...
by JoMoney
Wed Dec 10, 2014 4:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?
Replies: 114
Views: 8031

Re: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?

I do follow it. Although it's something less than the 10% bond allocation, and closer to the allocation suggested by the question/response he gave to author/blogger Tim Ferriss at the 2008 BRK Meeting: “If you were 30 years old and had no dependents but a full-time job that precluded full-time inves...
by JoMoney
Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't YOU follow Buffett's advice?
Replies: 114
Views: 8031

Re: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.

^
Shocking! Breaking news: He's been saying that for 20+ years
Next scathing headline: Vanguard sells Active Mutual Funds :shock:
by JoMoney
Wed Dec 10, 2014 1:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.
Replies: 106
Views: 11246

Re: To Tilt or Not To Tilt, that's the question

Yes, but the tilting mentioned above doesn't require a disbelief in the EMH, while factor tilting is inconsistent with the EMH. Actually, I think factor tilting is explicitly affirming a belief in the EMH. The whole "risk premium" story around the factor tilts is a way to explain the anom...
by JoMoney
Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To Tilt or Not To Tilt, that's the question
Replies: 52
Views: 2395

Re: What's wrong with VTIAX?

Not sure if this is helpful or not, but you might consider this: According to the data used in PortfolioVisualizer Someone who averaged the same amount into a portfolio each year of either 100% U.S. or 50%/50% US/Intl (rebalanced) from 1972-2013 would have achieved pretty much the same long-term res...
by JoMoney
Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with VTIAX?
Replies: 63
Views: 7424

Re: Sell home and rent?

Do you want to live in that area or a home like that long-term? Are you young enough that you think there's some chance of significant lifestyle changes, maybe a new job that requires moving, or finding a SO that might have there own ideas about where they want to live (or may already own a home)? I...
by JoMoney
Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:43 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell home and rent?
Replies: 3
Views: 432

Re: To Tilt or Not To Tilt, that's the question

...(Just to be clear: as I understand it, going from the three-factor model to the New! Improved! Now With RMW and CMA! model would not really be a big course change. But you still have to wonder what's going on, as there seems to be something of an explosion of more and more new "factors"...
by JoMoney
Tue Dec 09, 2014 7:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To Tilt or Not To Tilt, that's the question
Replies: 52
Views: 2395

Re: Is the Boglehead Consensus on Long Bonds still Negative?

It would seem to have opinions on market direction is to tempt one into psychological traps by our belief in those opinions. In all seriousness isn't a core part of the Boglehead philosophy accepting and embracing the fact we just do not know what will happen. I'm not saying the philosophy is wrong...
by JoMoney
Tue Dec 09, 2014 5:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Boglehead Consensus on Long Bonds still Negative?
Replies: 29
Views: 3171

Re: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk

But how do you know what to do when? Don't you have pay their firms to tell you? Or can you and I do it with freely available information and algorithms? I thought all the momentum strategies can with significant costs. If someone was taking this idea to the extreme you could probably just choose t...
by JoMoney
Tue Dec 09, 2014 4:54 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk
Replies: 73
Views: 4471

Re: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk

The idea of rebalancing to maintain a "risk profile" at a constant percentage of assets makes sense and his worked out quite well for decades, probably millennia (e.g. Talmud portfolio ), we have at least one mutual fund that's been following a balanced stock/bond strategy since 1929 . Thi...
by JoMoney
Tue Dec 09, 2014 4:27 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvey paper says re-balancing adds risk
Replies: 73
Views: 4471

Re: Is the Boglehead Consensus on Long Bonds still Negative?

Is it actually possible to be a true Boglehead and have an opinion of the direction of the market? I thought Bogleheads were more evolved than to participate in the reading of financial tea leaving and such. What is a "true Boglehead"? Is this maybe a falacious argument like " No tru...
by JoMoney
Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Boglehead Consensus on Long Bonds still Negative?
Replies: 29
Views: 3171

Re: Is the Boglehead Consensus on Long Bonds still Negative?

My opinion: Bonds should be bought with the expectation that you're going to hold them to maturity. If you have some sort of need to match a liability to a an asset without risk of losing principal (at least in price), or maybe if you really like the yield and want to lock in that stream of income f...
by JoMoney
Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Boglehead Consensus on Long Bonds still Negative?
Replies: 29
Views: 3171

Re: Bogle on the past and future of investing

Great interview. Nice to see him touch on such a wide range of topics. Interesting that he sees today as such a dangerous time to invest. Maybe a bit of recency bias? I would have assumed investing in the high inflationary periods of the 1970's in the cold war era would have been worse just in rece...
by JoMoney
Tue Dec 09, 2014 6:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on the past and future of investing
Replies: 15
Views: 2154

Re: Update: 6 years into Buffett's Bet With Hedge Funds

FYI - The bonds the wager money was put into was sold early because the value skyrocketed during the interest rate drops http://fortune.com/2014/02/05/buffett-widens-lead-in-1-million-hedge-fund-bet/ ...Each side in the bet put up about $320,000, and the total was invested in zero-coupon bonds that ...
by JoMoney
Tue Dec 09, 2014 2:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Update: 6 years into Buffett's Bet With Hedge Funds
Replies: 24
Views: 2719

Re: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?

Here's an Efficient Frontier chart over the period that Vanguard has had a "Total International" fund available 1996-2013: PV Link It would imply that the highest return portfolio was an all U.S. one, and the most "Efficient" one an 85%US/15%Intl But all these charts and back-tes...
by JoMoney
Mon Dec 08, 2014 3:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?
Replies: 65
Views: 4054

Re: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?

If the goal is to simply be as diversified across all stocks globally as widely as possible, for better or worse, then I think trying to match the global market weightings is the way to do it. But I'm not sure why someone would want to do that... Personally, I start with the question of "Why ow...
by JoMoney
Mon Dec 08, 2014 5:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why have more US than Intl Market Index?
Replies: 65
Views: 4054

Re: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.

Why not only invest in companies headquartered in Dallas? I bet they derive a lot of their revenue from other US states, European countries, and China... I don't think there's any reason to believe that a portfolio designed around Dallas would offer lower risk or lower expenses. I don't think it wo...
by JoMoney
Sun Dec 07, 2014 3:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.
Replies: 106
Views: 11246

Re: What is "buying risk premiums"?

Is there any way I can have access to these MFs without having a DFA account? or is that the only way? I don't think you can have a "DFA account". The only way to buy their funds is through a financial adviser or possibly some workplace retirement plans. So your account would have to be s...
by JoMoney
Sun Dec 07, 2014 2:55 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is "buying risk premiums"?
Replies: 6
Views: 634

Re: What is "buying risk premiums"?

Within the " Efficient-Market Hypothesis " paradigm, returns in excess of the market should only be had by assuming more risk. Some people believe that a strategy of focusing on more risk as measured by various "risk factors" will lead to a portfolio that outperforms the market, ...
by JoMoney
Sun Dec 07, 2014 7:02 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is "buying risk premiums"?
Replies: 6
Views: 634

Re: How can an Total US Index be improved?

I'd like to see a "Total Market" index that had some shareholder advocacy bent to it. I wouldn't want to much activism going on, for the most part I think the management should be left to do what they were hired to do, but I think there are occasions where it might be worthwhile to remind ...
by JoMoney
Sun Dec 07, 2014 2:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can an Total US Index be improved?
Replies: 33
Views: 1919

Re: How can an Total US Index be improved?

... I would not want to play the guessing game of avoiding a major sector of the market, just some areas, as I used the example, like penny stocks. When people talk of "penny stocks" they're often talking about stocks not traded on the major exchanges, but sold on OTCBB "Over The Cou...
by JoMoney
Sat Dec 06, 2014 9:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can an Total US Index be improved?
Replies: 33
Views: 1919

Re: If I purchase an ETF for a month, do I pay entire exp. r

http://www.morningstar.com/InvGlossary/expense_ratio.aspx ... The expense ratio, which is deducted from the fund's average net assets, is accrued on a daily basis. ... http://www.thestreet.com/story/729472/1/are-a-funds-expenses-deducted-daily-from-assets.html ... a fund's expense ratio is its dail...
by JoMoney
Sat Dec 06, 2014 6:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If I purchase an ETF for a month, do I pay entire exp. ratio
Replies: 3
Views: 336

Re: Best book on Finance I ever read, Ben Graham's Intellige

I don't think it was necessarily Zweig trying to steer people towards passive indexing. Graham himself repeatedly emphasized it: It is true that the art of skillful or shrewd investment is supposed to lie particularly in the selection of issues that will give better results than the general market. ...
by JoMoney
Sat Dec 06, 2014 4:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best book on Finance I ever read, Ben Graham's Intelligent I
Replies: 35
Views: 4274

Re: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"

Might be an error in thinking the research data even represents achievable returns. I was looking at a The DFA Matrix Book 2014 showing returns for their "Dimmensional US Small Cap Index" and "Dimmensional US Small Cap Value Index", it looks like the actual funds significantly un...
by JoMoney
Sat Dec 06, 2014 3:34 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"
Replies: 99
Views: 7191

Re: Most stocks are losers - golden swans drive returns of i

TwoByFour wrote:...I still have not figured out if she is extremely lucky of very skilled.
And even when convinced someone has "skill" there's no saying they won't get unlucky, or so focused on their area of expertise that they're blind-sided by some exogenous factor they never saw coming.
by JoMoney
Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most stocks are losers - golden swans drive returns of index
Replies: 21
Views: 2630

Re: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"

I'm going to throw out there, that I have no issue with the idea that behavioral fads exist, and repeat themselves driving the returns within various narrow cross-sections of the market. I don't believe "small-cap value" is in anyway more immune to it than the Nifty-Fifty fad was. The most...
by JoMoney
Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"
Replies: 99
Views: 7191

Re: to rebalance or not to rebalance

...Did you set your asset allocation by throwing darts at a wall, then? ... I think you missed the crux of it. The allocation is based more on matching liabilities and income needs. It doesn't follow a constant mix percentage. If stocks go up, it doesn't mean I suddenly need more fixed income. If s...
by JoMoney
Fri Dec 05, 2014 7:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: to rebalance or not to rebalance
Replies: 63
Views: 3305

Re: Most stocks are losers - golden swans drive returns of i

Very interesting, thanks for sharing. Towards the end, there was a paragraph regarding the extreme fortunes that some have attained via concentration ...In th US, the top 10 of the “Forbes 400” also made their fortunes through concentration. As difficult as it is to build a company and amass wealth,...
by JoMoney
Fri Dec 05, 2014 7:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most stocks are losers - golden swans drive returns of index
Replies: 21
Views: 2630

Re: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"

We were discussing the failure of the "small-cap" premium over the 30 years following Banz's paper. But we're reminded that like the "Dogs of the Dow", when the original strategy wasn't working, they changed the story... Now the premium is only in "small-cap value"... I...
by JoMoney
Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Small-Cap Performance Edge on the Wane"
Replies: 99
Views: 7191

Re: What DID Meriwether of LTCM say about "ten sigma events?

May not lead to anything, but in searching I found a couple references to an article from Newsweek I can't seem to find a copy of the article online, so I don't know if this actually has any detail. But several different reports such as this one: http://www10.iadb.org/intal/intalcdi/PE/2011/08255.pd...
by JoMoney
Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What DID Meriwether of LTCM say about "ten sigma events?"
Replies: 5
Views: 851
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