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Re: FYI..W.BUFFETT ON BLOOMBERG AT 3 TODAY

No idea what time it airs, but apparently he'll be on CNBC's "Street Signs" as well:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101603518
by JoMoney
Wed Apr 23, 2014 8:59 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FYI..W.Buffett on Bloomberg at 3 Today
Replies: 8
Views: 263

Re: Does Asset Allocation beat the S&P 500?

Personally, I follow a Buffett model/suggested portfolio, but the low bond allocation, and the lack of international is considered a bit heretical around here. Link to Morningstar chart showing various model portfolios and what DID happen, but not necessarily what will occur in the future. Do you w...
by JoMoney
Wed Apr 23, 2014 5:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Asset Allocation beat the S&P 500?
Replies: 73
Views: 3004

Re: Does Asset Allocation beat the S&P 500?

...Assett allocation is not a panacea. It is a reasoned -if imperfect- approach to the inevitable uncertainty of the financial markets... Different people are going to pick different "allocations", those allocations are going to track differently over different periods of time. Past perfo...
by JoMoney
Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Asset Allocation beat the S&P 500?
Replies: 73
Views: 3004

Re: Why is the price so low for option? Is this real?

Maybe it's an option traded very infrequently... could it be that you're just looking at the last price that option traded for, but if you actually put in a bid it would not execute at that price... ?
by JoMoney
Tue Apr 22, 2014 4:24 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the price so low for option? Is this real?
Replies: 20
Views: 1067

Re: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?

..."cash", as we know it, was not even the same ... think bank script, individual state currencies, etc versus the federal reserve notes of today. This is interesting, it does complicate the whole idea of comparing various assets since the dollar was pegged to silver/gold and how people v...
by JoMoney
Tue Apr 22, 2014 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?
Replies: 54
Views: 2305

Re: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?

I wonder if active managers had an advantage over passive investors back then. Or if there were inefficiencies in the market that could have been exploited. Unclear there were "passive" investors in the sense we have now, ie index fund type portfolios. My understanding is that trading was...
by JoMoney
Tue Apr 22, 2014 8:55 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?
Replies: 54
Views: 2305

Re: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?

The first thing that comes to mind as to why it might be relevant, is the markets tendency to exhibit mean-reversion, and the so called "Siegel Constant" of the U.S. stock market returning an inflation adjusted 6.6% return over long periods of time. The longer the period of time, the more ...
by JoMoney
Tue Apr 22, 2014 8:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 1800s stock market data even relevant?
Replies: 54
Views: 2305

Re: what do you suggest for reading?

livesoft wrote:...Follow-up bonus question (hard): Why does livesoft own FUSVX instead of FSTVX? :)

oooh oooh ooh <raises hand and blurts out guess> working around 'wash sale rule' in tax loss harvesting?
by JoMoney
Tue Apr 22, 2014 7:38 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what do you suggest for reading?
Replies: 15
Views: 948

Re: Does RSP performance offset it's expense ratio?

No. RSP does not add anything to offset its expense ratio. It tracks its index, the " S&P 500 Equal Weight Index " , but does so only after the higher .40% expense ratio and additional expenses do to the turnover costs of that index. Vanguard's S&P500 index ETF ( VOO ) tracks its ...
by JoMoney
Tue Apr 22, 2014 7:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does RSP performance offset it's expense ratio?
Replies: 12
Views: 682

Re: what do you suggest for reading?

Reading is good, and if you're really interested in the ins-and-outs of fund investing - by all means... but getting too wrapped up in the process of investing can give you some wacky ideas that might derail you, or possibly just take a good simple plan and needlessly complicate it. My favorite book...
by JoMoney
Tue Apr 22, 2014 3:37 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what do you suggest for reading?
Replies: 15
Views: 948

Re: Can we ever expect VG to offer ISV or EMV?

Years ago, McDonalds did not offer tomatoes in some of its standard burgers. The story I heard at the time was that if tomatoes were included in the McDonalds burger "asset allocation" as a standard item, then there would simply not be enough tomatoes in the world to allow that. It all ma...
by JoMoney
Mon Apr 21, 2014 4:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can we ever expect VG to offer ISV or EMV?
Replies: 18
Views: 1519

Re: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps Finally Getting Some Respect

I don't mean to hate on the mid-caps, it was a great call, and if "quality" is indeed a "factor" along with size, then mid-caps would seem to be a sweet-spot between small and quality... but I still have a bit of a problem getting overly excited about mid-caps or small-caps going...
by JoMoney
Sun Apr 20, 2014 5:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mel's Unloved Mid-Caps Finally Getting Some Respect
Replies: 40
Views: 2892

Re: Book for 20 Year Old Beginner

For all ages, The Gotrocks Parable by Warren Buffet, as presented in " The Little Book of Common Sense Investing : The Only Way to Guarantee Your Fair Share of Stock Market Returns by John C. Bogle " but also available on his website: http://johncbogle.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2007...
by JoMoney
Sun Apr 20, 2014 6:26 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book for 20 Year Old Beginner
Replies: 16
Views: 1030

Re: NYT: Re-education of a Brash Young Stock Picker

...over the past 10 years generating about 35% per year versus a market return of 7% per year holding primarily 8 to 10 stocks per year... This sort of focus plays a big role in "beating the market", the more "diversified" the portfolio the more likely your results will mimic ma...
by JoMoney
Sat Apr 19, 2014 10:56 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: Re-education of a Brash Young Stock Picker
Replies: 23
Views: 2842

Re: payWave cards

Also, I will not use a debit card linked to my checking account for POS/Internet purchases I do not use a debit card either. I will not activate it if they send me one. If I have a choice, I decline it. I have one, I just won't use it. Most banks don't offer the choice of an ATM only card, but some...
by JoMoney
Sat Apr 19, 2014 10:36 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: payWave cards
Replies: 15
Views: 666

Re: NYT: Re-education of a Brash Young Stock Picker

...What you can do, though, is hold a broadly diversified portfolio with low fees and then add a good idea every few years if it comes along. Holding index funds lets the active manager focus on his best ideas and removes the need to pick lots of stocks just to fill out a portfolio. If no ideas com...
by JoMoney
Sat Apr 19, 2014 10:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: Re-education of a Brash Young Stock Picker
Replies: 23
Views: 2842

Re: payWave cards

<puts on tin-foil hat wallet > "Just because i'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me..." I don't like the payWave and other RFID type payment systems or ID's. Way too easy for people I don't want to have that information to collect it. Also, I will not use a debit card linked ...
by JoMoney
Sat Apr 19, 2014 9:39 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: payWave cards
Replies: 15
Views: 666

Re: Interpreting Shiller's data

I like to play with the Shiller data as well. I can't say for certain how the data in his spreadsheets monthly prices & dividends are determined (my guess is the average daily close price for the month). When making various calculations playing with the data, I have found the differences to be r...
by JoMoney
Sat Apr 19, 2014 8:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interpreting Shiller's data
Replies: 4
Views: 451

Re: Oh No! My Tilt has untilted!

...Having taken stands on such things as value and small cap tilting, dividend investing, momentum investing, individual stocks, etc., I have pointed out the virtues and pitfalls of these approaches. It probably makes me sound wishy-washy. That is one reason I chose the Charlie Brown avatar. And I ...
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 18, 2014 9:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Oh No! My Tilt has untilted!
Replies: 15
Views: 2289

Re: Amazon.com prices change quickly

Use camelcamelcamel.com to track amazon prices to spot trends. Thank you for sharing that! But of course, I wonder about how useful it is to try and time the market... and on the other hand, I have noticed an anomaly I call the " November Effect " where retail prices seem to systematicly ...
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 18, 2014 9:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon.com prices change quickly
Replies: 53
Views: 4553

Re: Which: Dividend Growth or High Yield Dividend?

There has been some talk about "Quality" being a factor, but it's highly subjective and open to different interpretations. There have been a handful of articles and people suggesting that the "Quality" of stocks in Vanguard's Dividend Appreciation Index fund fit into this categor...
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 18, 2014 8:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which: Dividend Growth or High Yield Dividend?
Replies: 13
Views: 1434

Re: Value & Growth - 20 Years In Style

...Vanguard growth and Vanguard value are both large cap funds. The total market fund is an all-cap fund. So as compared to the total market, Vanguard growth and Vanguard value will suffer from "large cap drag" during periods of strong performance for smaller stocks. The last decade was o...
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 18, 2014 5:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value & Growth - 20 Years In Style
Replies: 14
Views: 1080

Value & Growth - 20 Years In Style

So I was playing with some numbers today, and came across something I thought might be worthy of sharing. I was over at the Morningstar website, looking at the returns from Vanguard's "Value Index" vs. "Growth Index" vs. "Total Stock Market" over the past few years. It'...
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 18, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value & Growth - 20 Years In Style
Replies: 14
Views: 1080

Re: Another take on the "rebalancing bonus"

...Speaking of -- it looks to me like the reset problem is the evil twin of the rebalancing bonus which is claimed here to not exist. Funky isn't it? It is... I don't think we can say the bonus doesn't exist, we can certainly find examples where it occurred, the problem I think is it's fleeting. It...
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 17, 2014 5:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another take on the "rebalancing bonus"
Replies: 63
Views: 3557

Re: Short-term Bond Index Fund

I use it for that purpose, but I might have a higher risk tolerance than a lot of folks around here... and in this case it may be without much reward for that risk. For people willing to shop around you can find CD's with lower risk at a similar (or better) yield... but I believe the risks in this f...
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 17, 2014 4:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short-term Bond Index Fund
Replies: 13
Views: 1462

Re: Another take on the "rebalancing bonus"

Rebalancing between assets with different risk/return characteristics needs to be judged on a risk-adjusted basis. On an absolute return basis, buy and hold will perform better over the long term, but so will 100% or 150% of the high return asset, so that's not hard.... I just want to toss a wrench...
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 17, 2014 5:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another take on the "rebalancing bonus"
Replies: 63
Views: 3557

Re: Another take on the "rebalancing bonus"

Rebalancing between assets with different risk/return characteristics needs to be judged on a risk-adjusted basis. On an absolute return basis, buy and hold will perform better over the long term, but so will 100% or 150% of the high return asset, so that's not hard.... I just want to toss a wrench...
by JoMoney
Wed Apr 16, 2014 5:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another take on the "rebalancing bonus"
Replies: 63
Views: 3557

Re: In reference to Heartbleed, are Google Docs safe?

For people who do use Google and want an added layer of security, consider 2-step verification:
https://www.google.com/landing/2step/
by JoMoney
Wed Apr 16, 2014 4:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: In reference to Heartbleed, are Google Docs safe?
Replies: 9
Views: 372

Re: GMO Forecasts now include Value and Growth

CXO's take on GMO forecasts (a bit old, 2010):
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/3124/individ ... -forecast/

Despite GMO's "stellar" forecasts, Jeremy Grantham's "Guru Grade" was less than stellar :
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/
by JoMoney
Wed Apr 16, 2014 4:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO Forecasts now include Value and Growth
Replies: 17
Views: 1117

Re: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific

...When I plot the Vanguard funds over the past 10 years, small caps do win out over large caps, but small cap growth does better than SCV. The past is the past, but I don't think small-caps of any flavor are a panacea... I'm going to post this chart once again: http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploa...
by JoMoney
Tue Apr 15, 2014 7:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific
Replies: 46
Views: 2260

Re: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific

...We are probably in a period when small-cap premium has gone away. I would not tilt to small-cap until the expected return goes well above large-cap... I agree with you. I have no question about whether or not small-caps are riskier than large-caps as a group. If one looks at individual companies...
by JoMoney
Mon Apr 14, 2014 5:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific
Replies: 46
Views: 2260

Re: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific

...you certainly can tell a story though, that includes some math and some recent history... ...Mathematics is ordinarily considered as producing precise and dependable results; but in the stock market the more elaborate and abstruse the mathematics, the more uncertain and speculative are the concl...
by JoMoney
Mon Apr 14, 2014 7:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific
Replies: 46
Views: 2260

Re: A Bubble in Value Stocks?

...I would also expect that large growth would as a group have a higher market cap than large value. The large cap growth stocks are the most popular and well followed out there... I know it doesn't answer your main question/focus, but it might surprise you that the "Value Index" currentl...
by JoMoney
Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Bubble in Value Stocks?
Replies: 31
Views: 2468

Re: Vanguard S&P 500 vs Total Stock

You may find these articles useful regarding the Tax differences: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Vanguard_Total_Stock_Market_Index_Fund_tax_distributions http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Vanguard_500_Index_Fund_tax_distributions#Distributions Note that some of the turnover (at least a few years back) ...
by JoMoney
Sun Apr 13, 2014 5:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard S&P 500 vs Total Stock
Replies: 17
Views: 2937

Re: A Bubble in Value Stocks?

...Weighting a portfolio to systematically buy the lostest variance stocks worked, but so did weighting a portfolio to systematically buy the highest variance stocks. A portfolio weighted to cheap stocks did better than the market, but so did a portfolio weighted towards more expensive stocks. The ...
by JoMoney
Sun Apr 13, 2014 1:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Bubble in Value Stocks?
Replies: 31
Views: 2468

Re: The market portfolio vs. value tilts

The market weight of a security simply reflects the dollar-weighted opinion of investors in aggregate. It's a big jump to get from there to saying that that this collective opinion is "correct" and everyone should just follow that opinion. True, but when it comes to attempts to outperform...
by JoMoney
Sun Apr 13, 2014 12:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The market portfolio vs. value tilts
Replies: 66
Views: 3185

Re: The market portfolio vs. value tilts

...Also, it's never been clear to me why just becase the market weights a particular security as it does means it would be "correct" for me to do so. There is not really an intrinsic reason why the market weight of IBM vs. Apple is "better" than weighting them in some kind of ra...
by JoMoney
Sat Apr 12, 2014 10:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The market portfolio vs. value tilts
Replies: 66
Views: 3185

Re: Portfolio Volatility is a Big Drag on Returns

Losing money is a drag. Upside volatility is great :greedy , but I suppose the concept of volatility is that it goes both ways. If you could predict the correlation of various assets over a given period of time, you could optimize a portfolio on the efficient frontier. I think we've seen plenty of c...
by JoMoney
Sat Apr 12, 2014 8:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Volatility is a Big Drag on Returns
Replies: 25
Views: 1882

Re: A Bubble in Value Stocks?

...I've concluded recently that one of my deep philosophical beliefs about the market is that valuations matter and that markets cannot always be trusted to sell assets at a fair price. This doesn't mean that I can spot pricing errors or that I should be picking stocks. It just means that I want to...
by JoMoney
Sat Apr 12, 2014 2:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Bubble in Value Stocks?
Replies: 31
Views: 2468

Re: Playing Defense

...What happened to all the people who were "100% equitites"? Where are the 95/5 chest thumpers? ... I'm sure there's plenty of us still out here, <yawning> at the markets fluctuations and averaging in each paycheck knowing that money we have invested in the market today isn't needed for ...
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 11, 2014 10:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Playing Defense [against possible market correction]
Replies: 36
Views: 2949

Re: A Bubble in Value Stocks?

...Of course value stocks can be subject to a general overvaluation of the market and small or large value stocks subject to overvaluation of small or large stocks, but value index funds should by definition be cheaper than the comparable blend or growth stock segements. The problem being I want to...
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 11, 2014 8:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Bubble in Value Stocks?
Replies: 31
Views: 2468

Re: The case against small cap value

I may have overstated. What I was thinking of though, was the Nifty-Fifty boom of the 60's-70's, which ended in the bull market in the mid-70's and was followed by a small-cap boom that busted in the early 80's and was followed by a large-cap boom in the late 90's that busted in early 2000, followed...
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 11, 2014 7:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case against small cap value
Replies: 53
Views: 5149

Re: Taxable account asset allocation

...I'd suggest you pick whichever you think you'll hold with more confidence... :thumbsup :thumbsup :thumbsup As already stated, there is very little difference between them. Personally, I've chosen the S&P500 fund for a handful of reasons that shouldn't make a difference. If you have a prefere...
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 10, 2014 5:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard S&P 500 vs Total Stock
Replies: 17
Views: 2937

Re: The case against small cap value

I have issues with the idea of selecting a time period of the past, showing the returns of that period (even rolling periods) and deciding that shows a conclusive "edge" that should be expected going forward. I can flip a coin 50 times and the results most likely won't be a 50/50 split. We...
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 10, 2014 4:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case against small cap value
Replies: 53
Views: 5149

Re: Income Investing

...Given that, why invest in stocks at all, even with a total return POV? JoMoney, I guess I have more faith in that the company board do try and best balance the needs of the shareholders along with it's customers and employees. It can work both ways, I might have made it sound negative listing of...
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 10, 2014 4:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Income Investing
Replies: 19
Views: 1760

Re: The case against small cap value

...What if you share my misgivings about the real protection available by diversifying into what may be riskier asset classes in the paradoxical quest to reduce the volatility risk of the equity portfolio? One major option remains: Controlling risk by reducing equity exposure. I conclude that the s...
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 10, 2014 5:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case against small cap value
Replies: 53
Views: 5149

Re: Income Investing

I think it's a mistake to think of a share of stock as your principle, and that only spending dividends is not touching the principle. A company can go out and issue new shares diluting the value of existing share holders (or perform buy-backs), they borrow money, they have mergers/acquisitions, the...
by JoMoney
Wed Apr 09, 2014 4:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Income Investing
Replies: 19
Views: 1760

Re: This time it's different?

... this time it's different... According the BLS.gov CPI Inflation calculator $10,000 in 1970 had equivalent purchasing power as $21,237.11 in 1980 (roughly 7.82% a year) $10,000 in 2004 has equivalent purchasing power as $12,428.85 in 2014 (roughly 2.2% a year) Over the more recent years inflation...
by JoMoney
Wed Apr 09, 2014 3:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This time it's different?
Replies: 16
Views: 2466

Re: If trading is a losing game, how do you explain prop fir

... but it seems that the great weight of evidence suggests that, over the long term, most investors fail in such a quest. Not just suggests, it's provable. The market doesn't produce anything more because people decide to trade or allocate differently. For those who decide to play the game of beat...
by JoMoney
Tue Apr 08, 2014 5:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If trading is a losing game, how do you explain prop firms?
Replies: 38
Views: 2946

Re: Is Alpha Dead?

... Where there seems to be something wholesome and reasonable about value investing, momentum seems to reward the worst sorts of market behavior. My own view is that moment and value are two sides of the same behavioral coin. Here is the idea. Markets are subject to certain kinds of herding behavi...
by JoMoney
Tue Apr 08, 2014 4:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Alpha Dead?
Replies: 38
Views: 2249
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