Search found 1277 matches

Return to advanced search

Re: International investing. A good call by our mentor.

Well, since Mr. Bogle said this about international investing 15 years ago, I don't think he was taking 2013-2014 recency into account, right? That's not my point. Jack Bogle's prediction was wrong until about late 2013. Sure, he's correct at the moment, but Taylor could not have made this post two...
by JoMoney
Fri Aug 01, 2014 6:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International investing. A good call by our mentor.
Replies: 50
Views: 4036

Re: International investing. A good call by our mentor.

It completely supports Mr.Bogle's opinion that for a U.S. investor, an international allocation doesn't (it didn't) really matter It's just like putting 100% of your portfolio in GE stock - 90% of the time, investing in more than one company "won't really matter" over your time horizon. Y...
by JoMoney
Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:35 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International investing. A good call by our mentor.
Replies: 50
Views: 4036

Re: Profiting from Unprofitable Companies

JoMoney, as usual, tried to mislead by cherry picking the start date of his chart. Here is what DFSCX since inception vs VFINX looks like (keep in mind it's a log scale): [..chart..] Growth of 10K DFSCX: $430K VFINX: $353K Call it what you like, it doesn't change the results for that period, or any...
by JoMoney
Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Profiting from Unprofitable Companies
Replies: 18
Views: 1463

Re: Prove adding SV will lower the risk, given the same E(r)

...The whole point is as long as there's another dimension to the risk, market portfolio is no longer mean-variance efficient... But it's nice to know that investing in a "Total Market" portfolio has reasoning based in facts and proof beyond academic theory http://www.vanguard.com/bogle_s...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 31, 2014 5:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prove adding SV will lower the risk, given the same E(r)
Replies: 56
Views: 1751

Re: Great Cliff Asness Primer on Quant Investing

That is something contrary to what you hear a lot from factor skeptics on this board. Yeah, you tend to hear it that way from someone trying to sell you something. :wink: Paul Despite his professional bias to his strategy, it's refreshing that Asness tells his family to go with Bogle http://www.cnb...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 31, 2014 4:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great Cliff Asness Primer on Quant Investing
Replies: 4
Views: 587

Re: Prove adding SV will lower the risk, given the same E(r)

...If one is a truly mean-variance investor, then he can tilt towards the top of the cone for a given stdev by adding the 3rd asset. (Imagine you slice the cone vertical to stdev dimension and move to the highest point.) To sum, it's theoretically possible to increase the expected return without ch...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 31, 2014 4:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prove adding SV will lower the risk, given the same E(r)
Replies: 56
Views: 1751

Re: International investing. A good call by our mentor.

... John Bogle didn't make a call 15 years ago regarding the future performance of US vs. non-US stocks. He made a recommendation to limit non-US stock holdings to a maximum of 20% of one's equity portfolio. The data I posted above showed that a buy-hold-rebalance investor over the last 15 years wo...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 31, 2014 4:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International investing. A good call by our mentor.
Replies: 50
Views: 4036

Re: Do any boggleheads invest in individual companies?

...If you have can identify a group of undervalued securities then it makes more sense to purchase this group then to buy a fairly valued security to provide diversification. In doing this you are reducing your expected return in exchange for reduced volatility. Whether you would do this or not dep...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 31, 2014 7:36 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do any boggleheads invest in individual companies?
Replies: 95
Views: 5372

Re: International investing. A good call by our mentor.

assets shouldn’t be viewed in isolation (but in how their addition impacts the risk and return of the portfolio) If only we could predict what their future returns and correlations would be. "Expert" guesses on what they think a portfolio should have has certainly changed over time https:...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 31, 2014 5:50 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International investing. A good call by our mentor.
Replies: 50
Views: 4036

Re: PE10

PE10 is interesting and may have some application, but it's not an answer to forecasting/timing the market. There's a lot of bearish market-pundits and various indicators that have gained notoriety over more recent years. I believe much of that notoriety is simply due to the 2000 and 2008 market cra...
by JoMoney
Wed Jul 30, 2014 4:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PE10
Replies: 13
Views: 1262

Re: DDM model predictions vs real returns

I believe there has been changes in the market that might skew results looking at dividends, in particular for periods before and after the 1980's (as it would seem your results show). You may find this paper interesting: Dividends, Share Repurchases, and the Substitution Hypothesis We show that rep...
by JoMoney
Tue Jul 29, 2014 5:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DDM model predictions vs real returns
Replies: 6
Views: 566

Re: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence

...It seems Large is a better deal than Small at this time. What am I missing? The "Efficient Market Hypotheses" , this thread starts from the old joke: A financial economist and passionate defender of the efficient markets hypothesis is walking down the street with a friend. The friend s...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 28, 2014 5:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence
Replies: 113
Views: 9449

Re: AMZN's magical status

Trader Joe wrote:I expect their share price to plummet this week.

Maybe you should bet on it, a levered options bet and you could be rich next week.
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 27, 2014 4:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMZN's magical status
Replies: 26
Views: 2762

Re: AMZN's magical status

They have big fixed assets. Warehouses, distribution equipment etc. Servers. I suspect that's a larger proportion of their assets than inventory (which they must turn pretty fast). Does Amazon actually own any of this? It's not uncommon for everything to be leased. It looks like they lease most of ...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 27, 2014 4:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMZN's magical status
Replies: 26
Views: 2762

Re: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence

I don't buy the "shorting is expensive" theory. Short e-minis, and buy doubles of everything that your theory tell you to buy. Eminis are super liquid and have basically no transaction costs. e-mini's usually represent the S&P index, the most liquid stocks out there - and typically th...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 27, 2014 4:34 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry: 20 Dollar Bills and Factor Persistence
Replies: 113
Views: 9449

Re: AMZN's magical status

Amazon is competing in a lot of different businesses, they have tremendous growth potential if they were to become dominant taking market share of retail business that used to belong to WalMart or Costco, or taking media business from NetFlix, ITunes, and the Cable TV companies, or their growing ser...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 26, 2014 11:03 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMZN's magical status
Replies: 26
Views: 2762

Re: Factor investing - A parody

The AAPL Fad-ctor is too new to draw any conclusions. You need the Philip Morris (now "Altria" - MO) Fad-ctor, it has history going back to 1925 and has outperformed everything else over the period since then. Current examination shows that exposure to the MO Fad-ctor only explains about 1...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 26, 2014 10:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing - A parody
Replies: 37
Views: 2334

Re: AMZN's magical status

P/E is hardly the only way to judge a company. Suppose you have a company that doesn't do anything other then issue (and buy back) shares, and buys (and sells) gold. When the price of gold is lower then the share price, it buys some gold and sell some shares. When the reverse is true, the company s...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 26, 2014 9:25 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMZN's magical status
Replies: 26
Views: 2762

Re: Efficient frontier by decade

If the chart was showing decades from 1940-1980 it might look even more wildly different. I prefer just to ignore the "efficient frontier" charts and look at my need and ability to assume the risks in stock investing. I'll base my fixed-income portfolio on how much certainty I want in thin...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 26, 2014 9:09 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient frontier by decade
Replies: 39
Views: 18176

Re: AMZN's magical status

Morningstar has trailing P/E at 500, and forward estimates at 64.1 Yahoo! has trailing P/E at 505.48, and forward estimates at 150 Last closing price was $324.01 , using Yahoo!'s numbers, trailing earnings were $0.64 and guesstimated future earnings are $2.16 IF that earnings growth comes to fruiti...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 26, 2014 8:39 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMZN's magical status
Replies: 26
Views: 2762

Re: Anyone use Fido as your bank?

The only way I've found to deposit cash is to get someone to write you a check... and it has to be a proper check (not money order) to use their smart-phone check deposit app. Finding banks that will write you a cashiers check without having an account with them can be hard to do. I finally found a ...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 26, 2014 8:06 am
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone use Fido as your bank?
Replies: 11
Views: 1471

Re: Profiting from Unprofitable Companies

... In fact by definition there should always be a premium. ... This is part of my issue with the idea that the market is efficiently pricing "risk premiums". If an anomaly existed at some point, and the market is efficient, then the conclusion is that the anomaly must somehow represent a...
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 25, 2014 9:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Profiting from Unprofitable Companies
Replies: 18
Views: 1463

Re: History books on the aftermath of financial crashes

The classic "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds" appears to be free for Amazon Kindle right now
http://www.amazon.com/Memoirs-Extraordi ... 004TP6B1O/
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 25, 2014 6:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History books on the aftermath of financial crashes
Replies: 9
Views: 1144

Re: Profiting from Unprofitable Companies

Broadly speaking without regard to "Growth" or "Value" style, small-caps look more expensive than large-caps (ref: the hundreds of other threads). Oddly, even The Federal Reserve has started making comments about it http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/07/15/live-blog-federal-rese...
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 25, 2014 5:53 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Profiting from Unprofitable Companies
Replies: 18
Views: 1463

Re: Dividend Growth Investing vs Index Funds

If someone is trying to pick a passive portfolio of stocks, a "Dividend Growth" strategy is probably a reasonable way to do it. Benjamin Graham actually suggested in "The Intelligent Investor" that dividend growth was probably the single best criteria for selecting a group of qua...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 24, 2014 5:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Growth Investing vs Index Funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1153

Re: Do you own a DOW30 or NASDAQ100 index fund?

No. In regard to the DOW, I wouldn't pay a mutual fund annual ER for a fund that owned 30 stocks unless it was extremely cheap or I only had a small amount invested. With the discount brokers available today, I think someone could roll their own for a lot less and not pay any ongoing ER's. Also, the...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 24, 2014 4:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you own a DOW30 or NASDAQ100 index fund?
Replies: 14
Views: 749

Re: Consumer Staples > Total Index?

FWIW, Here's a chart of the total return on Vanguard's Total Stock Market over the life of XLP "Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF" one of the older index funds out their tracking Consumer Staples: http://i62.tinypic.com/2r21v7d.png The performance over time has been "period depe...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 24, 2014 8:23 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consumer Staples > Total Index?
Replies: 9
Views: 827

Re: Consumer Staples > Total Index?

In Jason Zweig's commentary of the book "The Intelligent Investor" he brings up James Patrick O'Shaughnessy. Apparently, he's been in the business of selling fund strategies for awhile now. In his 1996 book "What Works On Wall Street" he showed various strategies that back-tested...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 24, 2014 7:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consumer Staples > Total Index?
Replies: 9
Views: 827

Re: International Allocation in some funds...

So again, what makes a company foreign or domestic for the purposes of Vanguard Index funds? Is it the country of domicile? That would make a growing number of US firms such as Accenture into foreign companies based on being incorporated in foreign countries for tax evasion purposes even though the...
by JoMoney
Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Allocation in some funds...
Replies: 18
Views: 798

Re: Poll: Which Happens First - DOW > 20,000 or DOW < 14,000

Jeremy Siegel says Dow could go to 20,000 by the end of the year:
"it could.. I'm not going to say that's the likely event..."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101807724
by JoMoney
Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Which Happens First - DOW > 20,000 or DOW < 14,000?
Replies: 33
Views: 3112

Re: Momentum Investing ?

...So let me make sure I've got this straight. There's a value premium...but only in small, mostly illiquid stocks. There's no momentum premium, unless you pair with with the value premium. In small, illiquid stocks. But only in Japan. And, let me guess - only on rainy Thursdays? :shock: Thursdays!...
by JoMoney
Wed Jul 23, 2014 6:25 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 55
Views: 4344

Re: TRP Small Cap Value (PRSVX)?

Note: I intentionally avoid small-caps. But FWIW, The T.Rowe Price funds are active funds, some might see their "style drift" as a feature. The managers of their other funds like OTCFX and PRNHX have commented numerous times about the current state of small caps being overvalued . The PRNH...
by JoMoney
Tue Jul 22, 2014 4:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TRP Small Cap Value (PRSVX)?
Replies: 3
Views: 450

Re: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets

I have bigger concerns about what baby boomers will do to the medicare/social-security systems, especially if the current job and wage growth is a new norm... but if jobs and wages start heating up I imagine inflation won't be to far behind... seems there's always something to worry about.
by JoMoney
Tue Jul 22, 2014 4:06 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will baby boomers retiring spell doom for the markets
Replies: 45
Views: 5385

Re: P/E Ratio: How do YOU interpret/use it?

As of others have said, as a passive investor, it's generally best to ignore it. Vast amounts of time, intellect, and huge sums of money are spent analyzing and trying to decide if they can guess better then what the aggregate market determines the price will be. It's not likely you will develop an ...
by JoMoney
Tue Jul 22, 2014 8:13 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E Ratio: How do YOU interpret/use it?
Replies: 26
Views: 1351

Re: Momentum Investing ?

bs010101, you are right, of course, but some Bogleheads, perhaps the majority, won't chase anything. Furthermore, the opposite of momentum is reversion to the mean. Paul The problem with reversion to the mean is naïvely believing that you know what the mean is. The market's mean, whatever future va...
by JoMoney
Mon Jul 21, 2014 8:15 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum Investing ?
Replies: 55
Views: 4344

Re: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag

...The S&P 500 is 'smart beta'. :D It's certainly smart for anyone who understands " The Cost Matters Hypothesis " But calling it beta implies only one explanatory factor of returns, wherein reality it has at least 500 factors. It may only be a modest sampling of the "Total Marke...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 20, 2014 6:09 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag
Replies: 45
Views: 3533

Re: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag

I have to admit, I prefer some of the more "active" qualities of the S&P500 to a more theoretically pure "Total Market Index". I don't expect the minimal "active" screening to deliver any long-term out-performance because despite the in-efficiencies I believe are in...
by JoMoney
Sun Jul 20, 2014 1:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faber: S&P 500 an Active Fund in Drag
Replies: 45
Views: 3533

Re: Vanguard Target retirement vs S&P500 indexing

...Please convince me why I should continue with S&P500 for next 5 years as I am 25 years away from retiring. At some point I will go into bonds but why now?n I have good career and income. I'm in a similar situation, but I don't have a date set for retiring. The return on bonds bought in today...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 19, 2014 11:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Target retirement vs S&P500 indexing
Replies: 7
Views: 1620

Re: Three questions about how mutual fund redemptions work

[...] I believe that if I were to go into my account right now, and issue orders ten minutes apart, --One to buy 10 shares of VTSMX in my Roth account --One to sell 10 shares of VTSMX in my wife's Roth (yes, we each gave each other transaction rights) Then, after settlement, I'd see about $500 less...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 19, 2014 9:17 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three questions about how mutual fund redemptions work
Replies: 6
Views: 816

Re: Japan's Lost Decades in One Chart

... I would like to see a source for his assertion that different accounting standards caused Japanese P/E's to be twice as high as if they had been using American accounting standards. Here's one report by Ken French: http://www.nber.org/papers/w3290 ... The difference between reported price-earni...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan's Lost Decades in One Chart
Replies: 23
Views: 2875

Re: a close look at value and momentum

Isn't betting on momentum intrinsically conflicting for people betting on mean-reversion strategies? If someone was going to speculate in both "value" style stocks and "momentum" style stocks, why not own a single low-cost low-turnover blend fund? If someone was going to try to p...
by JoMoney
Sat Jul 19, 2014 8:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 17350

Re: Corporate inversions and TSM

For some indexes (like the S&P500) it's a requirement that a company be a "U.S. Company", but there are multiple considerations that go into how that's determined, and where the company is headquartered and pays taxes is not necessarily a determining factor: http://www.spindices.com/do...
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 18, 2014 10:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate inversions and TSM
Replies: 3
Views: 381

Re: a close look at value and momentum

...It is amazing how the industry churns out an endless stream of investment strategies with catchy names and snazzy backtests. When one stops working, they just come up with something new. For me, the problem is that it's not "new". These are the same old strategies revived with new &quo...
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 18, 2014 9:32 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 17350

Re: a close look at value and momentum

Trying to combine "Momentum" and "Value" seems like a re-run of what used to be called GARP . It's the holy grail - pick the stocks that are going up like a growth fund (but not the crazy over-priced ones), while avoiding the "sinking ships" of Value investing. All of t...
by JoMoney
Fri Jul 18, 2014 3:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 17350

Re: ETF Liquidity for the long term

ogd wrote:...If shares of the companies included in VOO aka S&P 500 become illiquid, all bets are off.

I think that's a key point - any account can become illiquid. There have been times in the past that bank holidays were declared to freeze people out of bank savings accounts.
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 17, 2014 5:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF Liquidity for the long term
Replies: 12
Views: 916

Re: a close look at value and momentum

Is there a "second derivative" or "reverse arbitrage" type effect to momentum? I mean, momentum trading itself causing more momentum effect (instead of less, as one usually imagines with 'arbitrage')? Contrarian investors who buy value think they're arbitraging momentum. Contrar...
by JoMoney
Thu Jul 17, 2014 4:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 17350

Re: VTI, VTSAX, VTSMX price difference

I hope VTI splits sometime soon :) Depending on how it affects the spread on the ETF over the funds net asset value, you may be better off with a higher price. I believe this is why they reverse-split their S&P500 ETF VOO. The higher price made the spread a smaller percentage of total value los...
by JoMoney
Tue Jul 15, 2014 4:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTI, VTSAX, VTSMX price difference
Replies: 27
Views: 1979

Re: a close look at value and momentum

The same statements were made 20 years ago about SV when FF published their paper and the SV premium since has been about the same. So saying it's silly to believe it will persist at that level seems to be a bit of overconfidence (and silly). I certainly believe there is a risk it will shrink. But ...
by JoMoney
Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:43 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a close look at value and momentum
Replies: 259
Views: 17350

Re: How do negative stock PEs affect index avg PE?

There is a lot of different ways PE's get reported on an index. Jeremy Siegel has commented about problems with the method S&P uses (by aggregating all the earnings together) because it distorts the fact that the losses of one group of companies (like many financial institutions in 2008/2009) ha...
by JoMoney
Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:08 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do negative stock PEs affect index avg PE?
Replies: 8
Views: 902

Re: How do negative stock PEs affect index avg PE?

...So I take it that companies with persistent negative earnings will be found predominantly in growth indexes, and not value indexes. Not really... "Growth" stocks are generally classified as companies that have been GROWING earnings, but in some indexes it will also include new companie...
by JoMoney
Tue Jul 15, 2014 5:44 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do negative stock PEs affect index avg PE?
Replies: 8
Views: 902
Next

Return to advanced search