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Re: Oh No! My Tilt has untilted!

...Having taken stands on such things as value and small cap tilting, dividend investing, momentum investing, individual stocks, etc., I have pointed out the virtues and pitfalls of these approaches. It probably makes me sound wishy-washy. That is one reason I chose the Charlie Brown avatar. And I ...
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 18, 2014 9:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Oh No! My Tilt has untilted!
Replies: 14
Views: 1743

Re: Amazon.com prices change quickly

Use camelcamelcamel.com to track amazon prices to spot trends. Thank you for sharing that! But of course, I wonder about how useful it is to try and time the market... and on the other hand, I have noticed an anomaly I call the " November Effect " where retail prices seem to systematicly ...
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 18, 2014 9:13 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon.com prices change quickly
Replies: 25
Views: 1722

Re: Which: Dividend Growth or High Yield Dividend?

There has been some talk about "Quality" being a factor, but it's highly subjective and open to different interpretations. There have been a handful of articles and people suggesting that the "Quality" of stocks in Vanguard's Dividend Appreciation Index fund fit into this categor...
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 18, 2014 8:44 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which: Dividend Growth or High Yield Dividend?
Replies: 11
Views: 946

Re: Value & Growth - 20 Years In Style

...Vanguard growth and Vanguard value are both large cap funds. The total market fund is an all-cap fund. So as compared to the total market, Vanguard growth and Vanguard value will suffer from "large cap drag" during periods of strong performance for smaller stocks. The last decade was o...
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 18, 2014 5:37 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value & Growth - 20 Years In Style
Replies: 13
Views: 742

Value & Growth - 20 Years In Style

So I was playing with some numbers today, and came across something I thought might be worthy of sharing. I was over at the Morningstar website, looking at the returns from Vanguard's "Value Index" vs. "Growth Index" vs. "Total Stock Market" over the past few years. It'...
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 18, 2014 9:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value & Growth - 20 Years In Style
Replies: 13
Views: 742

Re: Another take on the "rebalancing bonus"

...Speaking of -- it looks to me like the reset problem is the evil twin of the rebalancing bonus which is claimed here to not exist. Funky isn't it? It is... I don't think we can say the bonus doesn't exist, we can certainly find examples where it occurred, the problem I think is it's fleeting. It...
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 17, 2014 5:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another take on the "rebalancing bonus"
Replies: 63
Views: 3390

Re: Short-term Bond Index Fund

I use it for that purpose, but I might have a higher risk tolerance than a lot of folks around here... and in this case it may be without much reward for that risk. For people willing to shop around you can find CD's with lower risk at a similar (or better) yield... but I believe the risks in this f...
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 17, 2014 4:28 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short-term Bond Index Fund
Replies: 8
Views: 834

Re: Another take on the "rebalancing bonus"

Rebalancing between assets with different risk/return characteristics needs to be judged on a risk-adjusted basis. On an absolute return basis, buy and hold will perform better over the long term, but so will 100% or 150% of the high return asset, so that's not hard.... I just want to toss a wrench...
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 17, 2014 5:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another take on the "rebalancing bonus"
Replies: 63
Views: 3390

Re: Another take on the "rebalancing bonus"

Rebalancing between assets with different risk/return characteristics needs to be judged on a risk-adjusted basis. On an absolute return basis, buy and hold will perform better over the long term, but so will 100% or 150% of the high return asset, so that's not hard.... I just want to toss a wrench...
by JoMoney
Wed Apr 16, 2014 5:23 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another take on the "rebalancing bonus"
Replies: 63
Views: 3390

Re: In reference to Heartbleed, are Google Docs safe?

For people who do use Google and want an added layer of security, consider 2-step verification:
https://www.google.com/landing/2step/
by JoMoney
Wed Apr 16, 2014 4:50 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: In reference to Heartbleed, are Google Docs safe?
Replies: 9
Views: 356

Re: GMO Forecasts now include Value and Growth

CXO's take on GMO forecasts (a bit old, 2010):
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/3124/individ ... -forecast/

Despite GMO's "stellar" forecasts, Jeremy Grantham's "Guru Grade" was less than stellar :
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/
by JoMoney
Wed Apr 16, 2014 4:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO Forecasts now include Value and Growth
Replies: 17
Views: 1076

Re: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific

...When I plot the Vanguard funds over the past 10 years, small caps do win out over large caps, but small cap growth does better than SCV. The past is the past, but I don't think small-caps of any flavor are a panacea... I'm going to post this chart once again: http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploa...
by JoMoney
Tue Apr 15, 2014 7:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific
Replies: 46
Views: 2236

Re: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific

...We are probably in a period when small-cap premium has gone away. I would not tilt to small-cap until the expected return goes well above large-cap... I agree with you. I have no question about whether or not small-caps are riskier than large-caps as a group. If one looks at individual companies...
by JoMoney
Mon Apr 14, 2014 5:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific
Replies: 46
Views: 2236

Re: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific

...you certainly can tell a story though, that includes some math and some recent history... ...Mathematics is ordinarily considered as producing precise and dependable results; but in the stock market the more elaborate and abstruse the mathematics, the more uncertain and speculative are the concl...
by JoMoney
Mon Apr 14, 2014 7:45 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV premium is a history/math story, its not scientific
Replies: 46
Views: 2236

Re: A Bubble in Value Stocks?

...I would also expect that large growth would as a group have a higher market cap than large value. The large cap growth stocks are the most popular and well followed out there... I know it doesn't answer your main question/focus, but it might surprise you that the "Value Index" currentl...
by JoMoney
Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:27 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Bubble in Value Stocks?
Replies: 31
Views: 2432

Re: Vanguard S&P 500 vs Total Stock

You may find these articles useful regarding the Tax differences: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Vanguard_Total_Stock_Market_Index_Fund_tax_distributions http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Vanguard_500_Index_Fund_tax_distributions#Distributions Note that some of the turnover (at least a few years back) ...
by JoMoney
Sun Apr 13, 2014 5:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard S&P 500 vs Total Stock
Replies: 17
Views: 2917

Re: A Bubble in Value Stocks?

...Weighting a portfolio to systematically buy the lostest variance stocks worked, but so did weighting a portfolio to systematically buy the highest variance stocks. A portfolio weighted to cheap stocks did better than the market, but so did a portfolio weighted towards more expensive stocks. The ...
by JoMoney
Sun Apr 13, 2014 1:58 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Bubble in Value Stocks?
Replies: 31
Views: 2432

Re: The market portfolio vs. value tilts

The market weight of a security simply reflects the dollar-weighted opinion of investors in aggregate. It's a big jump to get from there to saying that that this collective opinion is "correct" and everyone should just follow that opinion. True, but when it comes to attempts to outperform...
by JoMoney
Sun Apr 13, 2014 12:16 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The market portfolio vs. value tilts
Replies: 66
Views: 3142

Re: The market portfolio vs. value tilts

...Also, it's never been clear to me why just becase the market weights a particular security as it does means it would be "correct" for me to do so. There is not really an intrinsic reason why the market weight of IBM vs. Apple is "better" than weighting them in some kind of ra...
by JoMoney
Sat Apr 12, 2014 10:05 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The market portfolio vs. value tilts
Replies: 66
Views: 3142

Re: Portfolio Volatility is a Big Drag on Returns

Losing money is a drag. Upside volatility is great :greedy , but I suppose the concept of volatility is that it goes both ways. If you could predict the correlation of various assets over a given period of time, you could optimize a portfolio on the efficient frontier. I think we've seen plenty of c...
by JoMoney
Sat Apr 12, 2014 8:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Volatility is a Big Drag on Returns
Replies: 25
Views: 1838

Re: A Bubble in Value Stocks?

...I've concluded recently that one of my deep philosophical beliefs about the market is that valuations matter and that markets cannot always be trusted to sell assets at a fair price. This doesn't mean that I can spot pricing errors or that I should be picking stocks. It just means that I want to...
by JoMoney
Sat Apr 12, 2014 2:00 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Bubble in Value Stocks?
Replies: 31
Views: 2432

Re: Playing Defense

...What happened to all the people who were "100% equitites"? Where are the 95/5 chest thumpers? ... I'm sure there's plenty of us still out here, <yawning> at the markets fluctuations and averaging in each paycheck knowing that money we have invested in the market today isn't needed for ...
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 11, 2014 10:07 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Playing Defense [against possible market correction]
Replies: 36
Views: 2930

Re: A Bubble in Value Stocks?

...Of course value stocks can be subject to a general overvaluation of the market and small or large value stocks subject to overvaluation of small or large stocks, but value index funds should by definition be cheaper than the comparable blend or growth stock segements. The problem being I want to...
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 11, 2014 8:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Bubble in Value Stocks?
Replies: 31
Views: 2432

Re: The case against small cap value

I may have overstated. What I was thinking of though, was the Nifty-Fifty boom of the 60's-70's, which ended in the bull market in the mid-70's and was followed by a small-cap boom that busted in the early 80's and was followed by a large-cap boom in the late 90's that busted in early 2000, followed...
by JoMoney
Fri Apr 11, 2014 7:56 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case against small cap value
Replies: 53
Views: 5113

Re: Taxable account asset allocation

...I'd suggest you pick whichever you think you'll hold with more confidence... :thumbsup :thumbsup :thumbsup As already stated, there is very little difference between them. Personally, I've chosen the S&P500 fund for a handful of reasons that shouldn't make a difference. If you have a prefere...
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 10, 2014 5:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard S&P 500 vs Total Stock
Replies: 17
Views: 2917

Re: The case against small cap value

I have issues with the idea of selecting a time period of the past, showing the returns of that period (even rolling periods) and deciding that shows a conclusive "edge" that should be expected going forward. I can flip a coin 50 times and the results most likely won't be a 50/50 split. We...
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 10, 2014 4:36 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case against small cap value
Replies: 53
Views: 5113

Re: Income Investing

...Given that, why invest in stocks at all, even with a total return POV? JoMoney, I guess I have more faith in that the company board do try and best balance the needs of the shareholders along with it's customers and employees. It can work both ways, I might have made it sound negative listing of...
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 10, 2014 4:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Income Investing
Replies: 19
Views: 1731

Re: The case against small cap value

...What if you share my misgivings about the real protection available by diversifying into what may be riskier asset classes in the paradoxical quest to reduce the volatility risk of the equity portfolio? One major option remains: Controlling risk by reducing equity exposure. I conclude that the s...
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 10, 2014 5:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case against small cap value
Replies: 53
Views: 5113

Re: Income Investing

I think it's a mistake to think of a share of stock as your principle, and that only spending dividends is not touching the principle. A company can go out and issue new shares diluting the value of existing share holders (or perform buy-backs), they borrow money, they have mergers/acquisitions, the...
by JoMoney
Wed Apr 09, 2014 4:19 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Income Investing
Replies: 19
Views: 1731

Re: This time it's different?

... this time it's different... According the BLS.gov CPI Inflation calculator $10,000 in 1970 had equivalent purchasing power as $21,237.11 in 1980 (roughly 7.82% a year) $10,000 in 2004 has equivalent purchasing power as $12,428.85 in 2014 (roughly 2.2% a year) Over the more recent years inflation...
by JoMoney
Wed Apr 09, 2014 3:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This time it's different?
Replies: 16
Views: 2450

Re: If trading is a losing game, how do you explain prop fir

... but it seems that the great weight of evidence suggests that, over the long term, most investors fail in such a quest. Not just suggests, it's provable. The market doesn't produce anything more because people decide to trade or allocate differently. For those who decide to play the game of beat...
by JoMoney
Tue Apr 08, 2014 5:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If trading is a losing game, how do you explain prop firms?
Replies: 38
Views: 2941

Re: Is Alpha Dead?

... Where there seems to be something wholesome and reasonable about value investing, momentum seems to reward the worst sorts of market behavior. My own view is that moment and value are two sides of the same behavioral coin. Here is the idea. Markets are subject to certain kinds of herding behavi...
by JoMoney
Tue Apr 08, 2014 4:42 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Alpha Dead?
Replies: 38
Views: 2098

Re: Investment amount instead of allocation percentage

I keep a fixed dollar amount of cash/short-term bonds, consider potential other sources of income/insurance, and the rest is put into investments... which at this point is entirely equities. Similar approach, opposite allocation I guess... I say to myself "I only want/need $xxx in cash or fixed...
by JoMoney
Mon Apr 07, 2014 4:51 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment amount instead of allocation percentage
Replies: 21
Views: 1521

Re: California Taxes - Am I Missing Something?

Several years ago I was living in CA and looked at doing some part time self-employed/independent work. When I looked at my current tax bracket I got discouraged... 25-28% Federal 9.3% Calfironia 15.3% Social Security and Medicare (Both employer/employee portion for self-employment) It becomes real ...
by JoMoney
Mon Apr 07, 2014 4:17 pm
 
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: California Taxes - Am I Missing Something?
Replies: 142
Views: 7918

Re: Why did Buffet Pick Vanguard SP500?

Also, In Buffett's million dollar wager against hedgefunds ( http://longbets.org/362/ ) he specifically picks the Vanguard 500 Admiral class fund as the benchmark, it seems to me he could have just easily chose the Admiral class Vanguard Total Stock market fund, but he didn't. The S&P500 is the ...
by JoMoney
Mon Apr 07, 2014 5:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did Buffet Pick Vanguard SP500?
Replies: 23
Views: 2871

Re: Fibonacci numbers: has Cramer lost his mind?

I knew someone who trad ed in various markets (but mostly forex) using lots of various technical indicators some of them involving Fibonacci numbers. He had lots of very impressive looking charts and formulas that made it look like rocket science. When I asked him to explain various aspects of his s...
by JoMoney
Thu Apr 03, 2014 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fibonacci numbers: has Cramer lost his mind?
Replies: 20
Views: 1818

Re: Written IPS strategy for next crash - Advice?

What is the intended result of the variable allocation... are you trying to increase return? What if you miss out on a lot of gains before whatever percentage downturn? If you're willing to accept a higher percentage stock allocation why only if a downturn happens?
by JoMoney
Mon Mar 31, 2014 3:28 am
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Written IPS strategy for next crash - Advice?
Replies: 15
Views: 1340

Re: Watching The Market Is Not Investing

I do believe there is an element of skill in stock investing/valuing businesses. The fact that the number of those who out-perform the market can be explained by the probabilities alone doesn't diminish the results to luck alone. Someone is going to win the gold medal in any event, chance certainly ...
by JoMoney
Sat Mar 29, 2014 8:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Watching The Market Is Not Investing
Replies: 12
Views: 1736

Re: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest

Congrats! Care to share how you picked your longs and shorts? cheers, Sure... I thought, " What would an aggressive stock be? " ... glanced at the list of stocks and saw WWE (World Wrestling Entertainment).. laughed and decided that was " aggressive "... the others stocks were a...
by JoMoney
Sat Mar 29, 2014 4:59 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest
Replies: 131
Views: 8472

Re: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest

Bumping the thread while I bask in the fleeting glory of being on top at this moment in time... :D
http://libra-investments.com/hf/bh.html
by JoMoney
Sat Mar 29, 2014 3:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest
Replies: 131
Views: 8472

Re: S&P 500 vs Total Stock Market MF

As already mentioned, there's not a large difference between the S&P 500 and total market, for many purposes the S&P500 is the most recognized index following the US market. I dont believe Warren Buffett isn't fully aware of the Vanguard Total Stock Market index. It's a question id like to h...
by JoMoney
Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:48 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P 500 vs Total Stock Market MF
Replies: 12
Views: 1663

Re: Beat the S&P 500 with the S&P 500? Not likely.

The TSP C Fund (tracks the S&P 500) did beat the index in 2013: 32.45% total return vs. 32.39% total return. :) Having an expense ratio of less than 2bp makes it a lot easier. The Vanguard institutional class S&P500 funds also beat the index on a regular basis. I believe this is a factor of...
by JoMoney
Wed Mar 05, 2014 12:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beat the S&P 500 with the S&P 500? Not likely.
Replies: 15
Views: 1579

Re: Best way to safely increase expected returns

I don't think "saving more" should be a scenario tossed out lightly. Invest in yourself, your education, a entrepreneurial venture, your own ability to earn more money. Although it's easier said than done, raising your income allows you to save more while not necessarily spending less. &qu...
by JoMoney
Sun Mar 02, 2014 10:32 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best way to safely increase expected returns
Replies: 28
Views: 2140

Re: Warren Buffett's portfolio for his wife: Vanguard index

Considering the money involved here it is probably safe to assume it is a taxable account correct?... ..."One bequest provides that cash will be delivered to a trustee for my wife's benefit."... The money will be inside a trust. My guess is it's treated like tax-deferred. No taxes on the ...
by JoMoney
Wed Feb 26, 2014 4:12 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett's portfolio for his wife: Vanguard index fund
Replies: 70
Views: 10189

Re: Why is VIG and VTI dividend yield the same?

Guys I am a novice here, I wanted to know why is VIG and VTI dividend yield the same, isn't VIG concentrated only with dividend stocks and VTI contain the total market? Thanks for the advice. VIG is concentrated in "Dividend Growth " , which is not necessarily high-dividend (like VYM ). T...
by JoMoney
Sun Feb 23, 2014 4:52 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is VIG and VTI dividend yield the same?
Replies: 2
Views: 314

Re: Reasonable to Avoid Short Term Bonds in Long Term invest

...it might juice the return a bit? ... It might hurt as well. Vanguard's Interm-Term Bond Index has a duration of about 6.4years, Long-Term Bond Index has a duration of about 14 years. The suggested 80/20 mix would effectively be a duration of just under 8 years and a yield to maturity of about 3%...
by JoMoney
Sun Feb 23, 2014 4:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reasonable to Avoid Short Term Bonds in Long Term investing?
Replies: 14
Views: 1011

Re: Google Chrome: All sites show "insecure"?

Is your computers date set correctly? I've seen issues where the computers date was set incorrectly and this caused problems when validating the authenticity of certificates used for secure connections.
by JoMoney
Sun Feb 23, 2014 3:49 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Google Chrome: All sites show "insecure"?
Replies: 10
Views: 558

Re: Has anyone seen the Japanese Stock Market?

...I'm not sure where you would find it but it would be interesting to see a chart of the Japanese stock market that goes from about 1950 to now. Morningstar has some data on the Nikkei you can chart against a mutual fund going back to around then... http://i62.tinypic.com/2qn7dyo.png
by JoMoney
Sun Feb 23, 2014 1:40 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone seen the Japanese Stock Market?
Replies: 73
Views: 6245

Re: Has anyone seen the Japanese Stock Market?

Don't forget this one. ... It was making no sense to me. Now I see the link says "Russia". Anakin I wonder if having a "global stock portfolio" would have provided higher diversification benefits to a Russian with investment accounts in that time period. Or if it helped Argentin...
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 22, 2014 9:49 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone seen the Japanese Stock Market?
Replies: 73
Views: 6245

Re: Has anyone seen the Japanese Stock Market?

... diversity in your equity holdings towards global market weight... ...understand that Japan is one of the largest holdings you'll have in a global market-weight portfolio. Not that I think Japan is in the bubble territory of the past, but there are still some significant challenges in their econ...
by JoMoney
Sat Feb 22, 2014 5:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone seen the Japanese Stock Market?
Replies: 73
Views: 6245
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