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Re: Are there skilled investors and managers?

While the performance of Primecap has been impressive. I question that the S&P500 is the appropriate benchmark. The fund invests heavily in mid-cap and large-cap stocks, and if you go back and look at the funds "median market-cap" overtime you'll see quite a bit of variance. Currently ...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there skilled investors and managers?
Replies: 7
Views: 333

Re: The missing value premium- a 10 year global lookback

in the US, S&P composite: 1881...6.58 1933...6.23 1942...7.84 ... ie, stagnant From the Shiller data, $1 invested at the beginning of 1881 would have been worth about $24.50 at the end of 1933. Quoting stock returns without including dividends is silly and misleading. Do you calculate the retur...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 30, 2015 6:11 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The missing value premium- a 10 year global lookback
Replies: 52
Views: 2402

Re: The missing value premium- a 10 year global lookback

... There was a very obscure value investor who went way back. Trying to remember is name...oh that's right, Benjamin Graham. Didn't he write a book or two? Then there was another guy who ran a few eeny, weeny, tiny funds by the name of...let me think...ahhh...oh that's right, John Templeton. Then ...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 30, 2015 2:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The missing value premium- a 10 year global lookback
Replies: 52
Views: 2402

Re: Expected returns with Buybacks gone wild

InvestorAdam wrote:...why aren't growth rates accelerating instead of remaining flat? ...

I don't know if this is true on a per share basis ... ? ...
http://us.spindices.com/documents/addit ... s-est.xlsx
(S&P500 As reported EPS)
Image
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 29, 2015 4:08 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected returns with Buybacks gone wild
Replies: 3
Views: 432

Re: Why do brokerages give commission free-etfs

...Other brokers might for marketing, but that does not seem to be the way Vanguard operates. Vanguard does a lot of marketing. I like to think that at Vanguard it's focused on the idea that more assets under management in Vanguard funds helps lower costs/expenses for everyone invested with Vanguar...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 29, 2015 6:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do brokerages give commission free-etfs
Replies: 19
Views: 1799

Re: Why not a 2 fund portfolio like Bogle suggests

" Why not? .. " I Can't really answer that question, I agree with it 100%. My impression of the people who do invest in international runs the gamut, some believe it's a value play and that it's likely to outperform in the future, some who believe it mitigates risk, some who aren't quite s...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 29, 2015 5:01 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not a 2 fund portfolio like Bogle suggests
Replies: 36
Views: 3823

Re: The theoretical physics of the Small Cap Premium

Facebook
Number of employees: 8.35k
Market-Cap: 212.55B

Snap-On Inc
Number of employees: 11.3k
Market-Cap: 7.67B
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 28, 2015 4:20 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The theoretical physics of the Small Cap Premium
Replies: 2
Views: 380

Re: The theoretical physics of the Small Cap Premium

One issue, is that the so-called "Small-Cap Premium" is based on a firms float-adjusted market cap of it's stock. There may be some general correlation with cap-size and other measurements of firm size, but it's not across the board. I don't ever here people discussing in terms of the numb...
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 28, 2015 3:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The theoretical physics of the Small Cap Premium
Replies: 2
Views: 380

Re: Why do brokerages give commission free-etfs

iShares has some information on their marketing program starting on page 98 of this SAI: http://www.ishares.com/us/literature/sai/sai-ishares-trust-3-31.pdf "...BFA Entities make these payments from their own assets and not from the assets of the Funds. Although a portion of BFA Entities’ reven...
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 28, 2015 3:26 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do brokerages give commission free-etfs
Replies: 19
Views: 1799

Re: Why do brokerages give commission free-etfs

ETF's (like mutual funds) have fees built in based on assets under management. Offering a token like "free trades" helps attract assets to those ETF's and promotes the company... For some companies like Vanguard, it may be a belief that raising AUM to funds will help lower expense ratios. ...
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 28, 2015 8:03 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do brokerages give commission free-etfs
Replies: 19
Views: 1799

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

International has had better performance over various periods in the past, I expect it will again in the future. I really don't think I could time it right to switch back and forth and get anything extra out of playing that game long-term. I don't think much has changed that would make me suddenly l...
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 27, 2015 4:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 44
Views: 4408

Re: Investing in Russia - Please Discuss

TubofProtein wrote:... seriously, what's the absolute worst that can happen? It can't go to zero can it, barring war, and even then?...

Yukos
by JoMoney
Mon Jan 26, 2015 4:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in Russia - Please Discuss
Replies: 12
Views: 982

Re: Mr. Bogle's current bond investing advice--what is it?

The recent CNBC clip of Mr. Bogle
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000349621&play=1
Mr.Bogle (responding to question about bond mutual funds): "...look out and stick to quality..."
by JoMoney
Mon Jan 26, 2015 4:01 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle's current bond investing advice--what is it?
Replies: 22
Views: 3408

Re: Less than a Million Club Poll, your real number?

No $0-$100k option? I think I could manage to get by on Social Security alone, but it's not a situation I want to be forced to, and I'm a long ways away from being able to collect which leaves me some doubts as to how viable the SS system will be in future generations. I expect there will have to be...
by JoMoney
Mon Jan 26, 2015 3:24 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Less than a Million Club Poll, your real number?
Replies: 15
Views: 3279

Re: Asness - The Small-Firm Effect Is Real, and It’s Spectac

... Once we arrived at the promised land of index investing, the academics now have assured us that factor investing will beat the indexes. The problem is that as the academics apply more and more factors to "passive" investing the more that "passive" investing looks more like t...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 25, 2015 4:21 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asness - The Small-Firm Effect Is Real, and It’s Spectacular
Replies: 62
Views: 6372

Re: Asness - The Small-Firm Effect Is Real, and It’s Spectac

... and what is the economic risk/return story for "Quality"? I thought these "factors" were supposed to explain risk/returns within an Efficient Market Hypothesis paradigm. If the expectation is that these factors are behavioral why would you not expect the market to behave diff...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 25, 2015 3:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asness - The Small-Firm Effect Is Real, and It’s Spectacular
Replies: 62
Views: 6372

Re: Asness - The Small-Firm Effect Is Real, and It’s Spectac

...I for one am confused by the ever changing factor zoo as it is has been presented up to now. Existing factors seem to come into style and go out of style, sometimes even disappear unless they are combined with yet another factor. In addition new factors emerge such as momentum, quality, profitab...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 25, 2015 3:16 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asness - The Small-Firm Effect Is Real, and It’s Spectacular
Replies: 62
Views: 6372

Re: Do you have an EF & Taxable Account?

I used Vanguard's Short-Term Bond Index fund for my "Emergency Fund" / Savings account for many years. It worked quite well for me. It's about 70% treasuries, and very liquid and easy to transfer funds to/from my checking account in a matter of days. It can be setup with check-writing agai...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 24, 2015 8:40 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you have an EF & Taxable Account?
Replies: 20
Views: 1479

Re: Asness - The Small-Firm Effect Is Real, and It’s Spectac

jdilla1107 wrote:...
Did you try any other time periods? 10 years looks pretty bad for BRSIX.

From inception of DFSCX to 7/31/1997 you'd certainly get a different picture
Morningstar Link
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 24, 2015 4:45 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asness - The Small-Firm Effect Is Real, and It’s Spectacular
Replies: 62
Views: 6372

Re: Google Chrome: is this a mega security problem?

Google has the concept of single use codes. You can print out a list (10) to keep in a safe place (or to carry with you) so that you won't be locked out of your account. Apple has a similar concept, but it is a single code (but is not single use). In either case, if you need to get into your accoun...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 23, 2015 8:40 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Google Chrome: is this a mega security problem?
Replies: 111
Views: 6585

Re: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?

^ RE The analogy, although it's a good argument for passive index investing, it fails to explain the presumptions of the "Efficient Market Hypothesis". Someone who believes the strategy of passive index/market based investing relies on the premises of EMH might be led astray if they come t...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 23, 2015 6:28 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?
Replies: 257
Views: 12783

Re: 250K or more with Vanguard

Just to clarify, if I own a mix of Vanguard Index and Mutual funds, and lets say their vaulued at $1million is there risk? Do mutual fund companies ever tank, kind of like a bankruptcy? I'm not talking about market risks and fluctuations. If you look at the chart above, you'll see there's several i...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 23, 2015 4:00 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 250K or more with Vanguard
Replies: 13
Views: 4284

Re: [Poll] Do u believe in weak/semi/strong EMH? (multi opti

We can't all be "above average", for a portfolio in any given market or subset to outperform, there will be some other that under-performs by a similar amount. Out-performing the average is zero-sum minus expenses in aggregate, anything that purports otherwise is measured wrong. Markets ar...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Do u believe in weak/semi/strong EMH? (multi options)
Replies: 11
Views: 699

Re: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?

BHs, can you help me? What's an easy way to convince freshman college students of EMH in 5 minutes? Why would you want to "convince" someone of something that's just a hypothesis ? Why not allow them to be skeptical and make decisions based on facts? Bearing in mind that the case for inde...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 22, 2015 3:15 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does an Efficient Market explain Buffett?
Replies: 257
Views: 12783

Re: Simplified UB&H has been underperforming the S&P500 - Wh

It also has a small-value tilt, which have lagged the broader market where Mid-Caps and Growth stocks have been outperforming. Over the past 10-year period, Small-Value funds have underperformed many large-growth index funds. Untrue overall - Vanguard Small Cap VAlue, for instance, beat Vanguard To...
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 21, 2015 4:18 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simplified UB&H has been underperforming the S&P500 - Why?
Replies: 6
Views: 672

Re: Simplified UB&H has been underperforming the S&P500 - Wh

It also has a small-value tilt, which have lagged the broader market where Mid-Caps and Growth stocks have been outperforming. Over the past 10-year period, Small-Value funds have underperformed many large-growth index funds.
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 21, 2015 2:39 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simplified UB&H has been underperforming the S&P500 - Why?
Replies: 6
Views: 672

Re: Where can I see charts of NYSE traded ETFs, shown in eur

If you go to Morningstar.com and bring up for a mutual fund first, then add the ticker for an ETF to compare to, you can change the currency to view the chart in:
Image
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 21, 2015 2:24 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where can I see charts of NYSE traded ETFs, shown in euros?
Replies: 4
Views: 428

Re: Google Chrome: is this a mega security problem?

Google Opt-Out (Onion satire): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMChO0qNbkY As far as security goes, I think 2-factor authentication is a good step in the right direction, but it doesn't help against insiders that are "Trusted" (i.e. Snowden or this engineer at Google http://www.net-securit...
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 20, 2015 3:38 pm
 
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Google Chrome: is this a mega security problem?
Replies: 111
Views: 6585

Re: The DOW: An Index I Love to Hate

One good thing about the DOW is it goes back to 1896 while the S&P 500 (in its current form) only goes back to 1957. Other than that... Actually it is surprisingly mysterious trying to figure out what preceded it, and what, exactly, sources and charts that claim to be showing an "S&P 5...
by JoMoney
Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:02 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The DOW: An Index I Love to Hate
Replies: 27
Views: 1943

Re: Does 3-funds offer higher returns or lower risk?

It all depends on your view of risk. In recent years, adding International has not provided any reduction in a portfolios standard deviation nor provided any extra return. Some U.S. investors buy International because they believe the broader diversification provides lower risk, even if not measure...
by JoMoney
Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:21 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 3-funds offer higher returns or lower risk?
Replies: 30
Views: 2633

Re: Does 3-funds offer higher returns or lower risk?

It all depends on your view of risk. In recent years, adding International has not provided any reduction in a portfolios standard deviation nor provided any extra return. Some U.S. investors buy International because they believe the broader diversification provides lower risk, even if not measured...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:43 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 3-funds offer higher returns or lower risk?
Replies: 30
Views: 2633

Re: Size + Value Premium Explained

The Efficient-market hypothesis suggests that one can not consistently achieve above market returns on a risk adjusted basis. Older models used market Beta as a method to measure risk, but anomalies have been found that show above market returns could have been had, and the excess returns are not ex...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:18 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Size + Value Premium Explained
Replies: 5
Views: 505

Re: Why no cult/theory/strategy of US regional stock investi

How would you determine which US State a stock belongs to? Would it be by state of incorporation? Gross receipts per state / per capita of the state? Some indexes have enough trouble determining which country index a stock belongs to... If you owned a S&P500 index as your U.S. index, and Total I...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 17, 2015 3:57 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why no cult/theory/strategy of US regional stock investing?
Replies: 21
Views: 1615

Re: Vanguard 500 vs TSM: Small Caps at Multi-Year Highs

There's a presentation in the recent Bogleheads conference info: http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bogleheads%C2%AE_Conferences#Bogleheads.C2.AE_13_-_Philadelphia in which Mr. Bogle gives a chart in " Telltale Chart" fashion showing the relative performance over time: http://i62.tinypic.com/2...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:41 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 500 vs TSM: Small Caps at Multi-Year Highs
Replies: 7
Views: 993

Re: Would managed funds beat index funds IF...

Their average fund will be average regardless of fees. If there was some fund out there that only traded when they had unique information that gave them an advantage... then sure, they might be able to outperform, but how does the individual investor know that the fund they're picking has a unique a...
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 13, 2015 3:29 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would managed funds beat index funds IF...
Replies: 34
Views: 2403

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

...How can you say that international looks terrible, and at the same time have higher expected returns for domestic? This is backwards. Things that are safer don't have higher expected returns... Things that are "riskier" don't necessarily have higher expected returns either. More volati...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 10, 2015 8:10 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 231
Views: 26730

Re: "Vanguard converting mutual fund accounts to brokerage?

We were prompted to upgrade the Roth IRA account first. This was achieved easily. It then stated that an exchange from the (old style) Traditional IRA to Roth IRA was not possible on-line, although it had always worked before. We upgraded the Traditional IRA account that day (again, easily done onl...
by JoMoney
Sat Jan 10, 2015 7:13 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard converting mutual fund accounts to brokerage?
Replies: 300
Views: 30350

Re: Should you buy foreign stocks because they're cheaper?

If you're an active investor who follows a strategy that fits a "value" style then "because they're cheaper" is probably a reason to buy them. Funny thing about strategies that want to buy more as prices fall is that when the situation (hopefully) reverses the strategy will gener...
by JoMoney
Wed Jan 07, 2015 3:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you buy foreign stocks because they're cheaper?
Replies: 4
Views: 1067

Re: Let's Celebtate! Which funds are you buying in 2015?

I'll continue to average into my S&P500 fund, and moving some savings to Series I Savings Bonds. <yawn>
by JoMoney
Tue Jan 06, 2015 3:35 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let's Celebrate! Which funds are you buying in 2015?
Replies: 48
Views: 3600

Re: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?

The example given suggests a scenario where a winning bet pays odds 2:1 for a coin flip, where fair odds would only pay out 1:1. This is silly because nobody in their right mind would offer that payout for very long (they would go broke). Of course a rational "investor" should use some mon...
by JoMoney
Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:50 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you make money betting on random coin flips?
Replies: 295
Views: 16581

Re: Are markets becoming inefficient?

In an inefficient market, those who make poor decisions can be exploited by those who play a superior game/have superior information. Eventually most of the money will be transferred to those who play with an advantage, and the suckers playing without an advantage will see their bankrolls grow small...
by JoMoney
Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:30 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are markets becoming inefficient?
Replies: 15
Views: 1803

Re: Ben Stein's new book: How to Ruin Your Financial Life

He agrees with Buffett that most investors would be better off just to put their equity money into an S&P500 Index fund and leave it alone. Then he spends the rest of the book explaining the ways in which most of us just don't take that advice. Could that be true of wise Bogleheads? Can you spe...
by JoMoney
Sun Jan 04, 2015 3:14 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Stein's new book: How to Ruin Your Financial Life
Replies: 18
Views: 4473

Re: Vanguard states ERs to 3 places!

Of course, JoMoney's total expenses slightly overstates the Admiral expense total as the Investment Advisory Services, Custodian Fees, Auditing Fees, and Trustees Fees apply collectively to all five classes of shares (Investor, Admiral, Signal, Institutional, ETF) in the fund. Still, the conclusion...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard states ERs to 3 places!
Replies: 26
Views: 2887

Re: Vanguard states ERs to 3 places!

...since as far as I know the way the expense ratios are computed and subtracted from returns are hidden from us. I don't dig into any of the big reports Vanguard puts out to know if there is more information there though... The funds expenses are paid as they're accrued, totaled up at the end of t...
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 02, 2015 6:47 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard states ERs to 3 places!
Replies: 26
Views: 2887

Re: Doesn't the US already have a wealth tax in effect?

Inflation Can Cause an Infinite Effective Tax Rate on Capital Gains ... if a taxpayer purchased an average stock in 1999, 2000, or 2007 and sold in 2013, they would be taxed entirely on inflation... http://i61.tinypic.com/2rggj83.png ... and [ In before the thread lock! :P ]
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 02, 2015 4:14 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doesn't the US already have a wealth tax in effect?
Replies: 21
Views: 1613

Re: Eight Lazy Portfolios. Eight roads to Dublin.

Also impressive is the "lazy" portfolio that is the all in one, Mr. Bogle suggested, VBIAX (Vanguard's Balanced Index Fund) @ 7.07%
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:46 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Eight Lazy Portfolios. Eight roads to Dublin.
Replies: 14
Views: 2424

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

I going to make a bearish WAG for 2015
$1852.34
by JoMoney
Fri Jan 02, 2015 1:11 am
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Replies: 556
Views: 19754

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

... If people have ideas, that's fine by me, even if I don't believe them. I don't see the need to direct any negativity in this case, just skepticism. I can agree with that. I know I don't have a definition of market timing that I'm comfortable with, if anything it's more along the lines of "...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 01, 2015 9:22 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 231
Views: 26730

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

Call it what you like, agree or disagree with it, but I think he pretty much came out with a macro-economic forecast and is implying he plans to make active portfolio changes because of it. It doesn't strike me as being a defensive play to reduce risk, it may even be risk seeking, and it doesn't sou...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 01, 2015 7:04 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 231
Views: 26730

Re: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio

I wonder if he makes tactical adjustments in International on a country by country basis, or only along the lines of US/ex.US ? Is there some dissonance and conflicting ideas some people use in different situations here? - on one hand they'll espouse talk of risk premiums that the "efficient ma...
by JoMoney
Thu Jan 01, 2015 5:38 pm
 
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri looking to internationalize his portfolio
Replies: 231
Views: 26730
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